Six days before the consequential midterm races and no one knows what will happen. Except us. We make our predictions on Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Maine, and Alaska, and compare our picks to the Polymarket odds.

Texas gets a deep look at James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, including Talarico’s play for independent voters that could finally turn Texas blue, in spite of Republican campaign ads urging voters to stick to their team instead of thinking for themselves. Senate races in Maine (Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson) and Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers) each get their own prediction round with real betting-market numbers attached, before the crew circles back to Alaska's Peltola-Sullivan race to close the predictions segment. 

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Chapters:

00:00:00 – Paxton's Record, Collins' Closing Message, and Alaska's Two Dan Sullivans

00:03:21 – How Ranked Choice Voting Breaks the Spoiler Game

00:06:23 – The Slow Count Myth and an Ad Selling the Opposite of Its Measure

00:10:05 – Texas by the Numbers: Modeled Party Data and Sean's Call

00:14:01 – Cara and Chad on Texas: Runoffs, Fox News, and 2.7 Million Independents

00:18:05 – The Betting Odds Shift and Maine Enters the Picture

00:21:24 – Maine: "We Do Not Endorse Troy Jackson" and the 96 Percent Problem

00:24:34 – Michigan: El-Sayed, Rogers, and Why the Polling Keeps Missing

00:28:50 – Alaska Predictions: Peltola, Ballot Measure 2, and the Decertify Lawsuit

00:32:24 – Scary Stories, Miscalibrated Machines, and Legalized Rigging