Inflation drop sparks rate hopes; AusSuper dumps WiseTech; Vance invites himself to Greenland

Published Mar 26, 2025, 5:00 PM

Thursday 27 March 2025

Inflation falls sparking hopes of an interest rate cut in coming months.

And more, including:

  • Australia’s biggest super fund dumps WiseTech Global on governance concerns. 
  • Tuesday night’s budget gets political. 
  • Plus another local retailer falls into administration and US Vice President JD Vance heads to Greenland, even though Greenlanders don’t want him.

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Today on Fear and Greed. Inflation falls, sparking hopes of an interest rate cut in the coming months, Australia's biggest super fund dumps WiseTech Global on governance concerns, and Tuesday Night's budget gets political. Plus another local retailer falls into administration, and US Vice President JD Vance heads to Greenland even though Greenlanders don't really want him to. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the twenty seventh of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

Good morning, Michael.

Plenty on today Sean. The main story this morning. Underlying inflation has fallen to its lowest level since late twenty twenty one as price pressures come out of the housing market, sparking a few hopes of another cut in interest rates in coming months. Wouldn't that be good?

It would be. Price pressures in the housing market receded, pushing the underlying level of inflation to two point seven percent and the headline rate to two point four percent four the month of February. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, The headline rate is lower because it includes the impact of the government seventy five dollars a quarter energy rebate, but the Reserve Bank is far more interested in the underlying rate effectively the rate that takes out all those volatile items like the rebate and gives the trend rate. It's a truer reading of what's really happening. The downward pressure on the inflation rate came from rents, which grew at a much slower pace. We're seeing that in the high rental vacancy rates. As a result, we're seeing rent levels not rising anywhere near as much as they were. Also, the pace of growth of the cost of building a new home fell to just one point six percent. That's the lowest level in more than four and a half years. So prices are still rising, but at a really slow pace. Not really a surprise given the slump at the construction set we've seen over the last six to twelve months. The monthly measure isn't as broad as a quarterly measure, and it can be volatile, but Michael, for three months now the underlying rate has been within the Reserve banks preferred two to three percent target. The data points to the March quarter underlying rate falling into that target band as well. Now the headline rate's been in the band for seven months now, all very exciting.

What does it mean then for interest rates? Because we obviously we had a cut in February. There's an RBA board meeting next week. Are we a chance, Sean of getting a second cup on April Fool's Day?

There's always a chance, but you might be a fool to believe it, I think. Market economists that want a cut point out that the pace of inflation is still falling, saying the Reserve Bank can afford to drop the official rate, particularly given the weakish economy. Those arguing against a rate cut point out that this is just a monthly figure and underlying inflation is not yet at the midpoint of the target band that'd be two point five percent. They argue that services inflation remains too high, coming in around three point six percent, So really you can take your pick. Where I think we'll land: inflation is definitely trending lower. The Reserve Bank will be very mindful of the potential negative impacts of the growing global trade war. It will also be worried about the inflationary impact of that growing global trade war. So I doubt there'll be a rate cut next week. But next month we find out about tariffs and quarterly inflation. The Reserve Bank meets in May, they'll have a much better indication of what's going on locally with inflation, global with tariffs. That's when we'll know whether or not they're going to cut rates again.

Okay, so next week is still up in the air.

There's always a chance, Michael, always a chance.

If I cross my fingers, is that going to help?

Er, maybe.

Probably not. Yesterday, local markets, how did they respond to the inflation figures?

Ppositively. The good news on inflation, alongside the stronger economic growth forecasts in Tuesday nights budget helped push the local market higher. It finished up zero point seven percent to seven nine and ninety nine points, so close. It did actually push above eight thousand points for the first time in a couple of weeks. The banks did it well, particularly ANZ. The miners, energy companies, they all did pretty well. So to retailers, healthcare stocks. Not so good, Michael.

Sean, before we go to the break, we've got to talk about this story. The country's largest superannuation fund, AustralianSuper has sold about five hundred and eighty million dollars worth of WiseTech Global stock, saying the group's governance fell short of expectations, which may even be a bit of an understatement really.

It might, but it's good to see a large super fund actually doing something about governance and kind of putting its money where its mouth is. So I Aussie Super has been an investor in Wisetech since twenty sixteen, it would have made a lot of money in that period. Over the past twelve months or so, there have been allegations swirling around founder, major shareholder and CEO Richard White, about relationships with staff and other women. It came to a head earlier this month when three independent directors quit the company, including its chair. White then installed himself as executive chair. Now ASIC,the regulator has said it's taking a look at what's going on. Aussie Super yesterday came out said it had been a strong supporter of the business, but that good governance was essential to delivering value. I quote; As a long term active manager, our role is to allocate members retirement savings so the companies we think are most likely to create value over the years to come. The inference in this, at least in AussieSuper's mind, is that poor governance leads to poor results. Now, other large super funds are invested in Wisetech, so AwareSuper, REST, Insignia Financial, Hesta. They're likely to come and under pressure now to sell down.

All right, big story, big day. A lot more still to come. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

Sean, the day after the budget was mostly, perhaps unsurprisingly about politics not economics, with the government pushing to legislate its budget tax cuts this week.

The legislation for the seventeen point one billion dollar income tax cut, which is about ten bucks a week when fully implemented, passed the Lower House yesterday with the support of the Greens and the Independents. The Coalition voted against the bill, calling it a cruel hoax, and now Opposition leader Peter Dutton is in the position where he looks like he's opposing a tax cut. The legislation was due to go to the Upper House last night. If it passes then Anthony Albanese will probably call an election and one of the first things he'll say is Peter Dutton doesn't want to cut taxes. Now Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has made the most of it yesterday, saying to vote against the legislation is to stand against the cost of living relief. Peter Dutton gives his budget response tonight and could well announce his own tax cuts if the Coalition is elected. Certainly he's likely to focus on energy policy and other cost of living relief. But the Government has done a really good job in wedging Peter Dutton on this issue. Some of the other cost of living issues that they've spoken about as soon as they're announced it, Peter Dutton has come out and said yep, we'll support that. So their reduction in the cost of scripts, for example, the money to improve bulk billing or increase the amount of bulk billing by GPS, the Coalition immediately came out and supported it. In this one, it hasn't because it actually thinks budget repair is more important than very small tax cuts. But bad look for the opposition.

Yeah, and I imagine question time yesterday would have been largely focused on the budget.

Yeah, it was a tax cuts, instant asset write off legislation. There was also stuff around work from home. This is the last week of the Parliament ahead of the election. I thought the highlight yesterday was in the Senate. Greens Senator Sarah Hanson Young came in wielding a large fish. Salmon, I think, not one hundred percent sure. She was protesting what she calls a gutting, pardon the pun of environmental laws by the Albanese government. I thought the Speaker of the House did a good job in saying ejecting the fish effectively, which is kind of funny. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister flagged further election announcements to help tradies and blue collar workers during the campaign.

It's been a while since we've had a prop taken into Parliament because I remember we've had Scott Morrison had a big chunk of coal. I think, I yes, remember that. I'm pretty sure Scott Morrison. But yes, this was a salmon and it was bagged, so it wasn't it wasn't going to kind of get kind of salmon water all over the place. But still props are not allowed in Parliament, even as kind of creative as this one was. Sean, one of the rights of passage as a political journalist is to cover a federal election campaign. Most of the access has always been given to the Canberra Press Gallery, but membership of the gallery will no longer be a prerequisite to catch the labor media buses around the country. This is really interesting. It seems to be a big shift away from tradition.

So content creators whatever that means, will be able to join the trail for a single day at a time, acording to the AFR. I'm not one hundred percent sure here, but I actually think that potentially the ALP will pay for their travel to join for the day. The idea is that their ALP wants to push its campaigning to audiences that don't follow the news closely. Now, already we've seen a bit of that. Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, for that matter, have been on podcasts much more than their predecessors. Social media influencers and finance content creators have been invited, well, they will be invited on their campaign. They're actually invited into the media lock up for Tuesday's budget. That's the first time that's happened. I think the more people spreading the message is a good thing, so it's hard to argue against that. The point which is a bit tricky, I mean, it costs media companies hundreds of thousands of dollars to send reporters on the road with political parties. If influencers and content creators are kind of getting a free ride on that, it's important that they're independent. It's important that they're just not being paid and write good stuff about the ALP because what we want is a robust debate. So I'm not against it. I mean, I love the idea that you know, they have a big, big audience. That's important. But so long as they're responsible about it.

Yeah, more voices is a good thing. More independent voices is a great thing.

Yes.

Sean steelmakers need coal to burn in their blast furnaces, and administrators of Whyalla Steel Works have scrambled to buy coking coal from competitor Bluescope as well as China and Indonesia after finding that they had just three days of supply left.

So when an administrators KordaMentha arrived there were just three days of supply. The previous owner, Sanjiv Gupta basically run down stockpiles. As a result, KordaMentha scurried around and spent sixty million dollars in what they called an unexpected cost to buy coal. KordaMentha also said yesterday Bluescope is among twelve interested parties in acquiring the steel works. That's good news for all the workers down there in Whyalla. The steel works was forced into administration by the South Australian government in mid February, owing about one point three five billion dollars.

The parent company of retailer Jeans West has gone into voluntary administration and plans to close stores, putting six hundred jobs at risk.

It's second time Hong Kong owner Harbor Guidance Proprietary Limited has put Jeans West into administration. It happened five years ago and then Harbor Guidance brought it back. Now it's put back into administration. The fifty three year old chain was founded in Perth. It focuses pretty much on cheap jeans and T shirts. Grew to about one hundred and fifty stores now it operates around ninety. Its main competitors, Just Jeans and JJ's were recently sold to It basically adds to the list of brands that have failed Katies, Noni B rivers, Rockman's, Miller's, Jean's West, a lot of them.

Yeah, there certainly is.

And finally Sean, before we get to the international news, bottle shops First Choice and Vintage Sellers will be rebranded Liquorland as part of owner Coles's efforts to take on the juggernaut that is Dan Murphy's.

The juggernaut. Endeavour owns Dan Murphy's. It used to be owned by Woolies. Dan's has been the market leader for a long time, and as part of Coles effort to gain some ground, all nine hundred and eighty four of its stores will become Liquorland stores. It wants to build a national brand and reinvigorate its price matching campaign. Starting next month. The national rollout will see all Coles liquor stores, whatever their name, unified under three banners Liquorland, Liquorland Cellars or Liquorland Warehouse. The program will increase Liquoraland's footprint by twenty five percent. Many of the stores will be located near or adjacent to a Coles supermarket.

Okay, turning to international news now, this story is really quite something. US Vice President JD Vance is heading to Greenland this week, taking over a controversial visit that officials in Greenland have actually made very very clear that they don't want at all.

So this week the Trump administration said that Usha Vance, the Second Lady, and Michael Waltz, the National Security Advisor, were traveling to Greenland to promote ties with the semi autonomous territory of Denmark that President Donald Trump wants for the United States. Now, officials from Denmark and Greenland immediately branded the trip as aggressive. So this is the Second Lady, not the VP. They called it aggressive and part of the President's plan to get the island, according to The New York Times. Now there's been a change of those planes and the VP's going. On X Vance said he would and I quote: Just check out what's going on with the security there of Greenland. He also accused Denmark of ignoring the island, which he said was bad for the security of the entire world. Somewhat condescending.

That line, "just check out what's going on with the security there." Just what? Just walk around, poke around a little bit, see what's kind of ...

And actually it's yeah, it's incredible that. A quick update of the story. The story we had yesterday about the leaking of the Signal chat group to the editor in chief of the Atlantic. So basically, the journalists knew the attack on Yemen was coming well before it happened. The administration including Donald Trump just basically said, oh, look, mistakes happened. That's it.

So but that was after denying it first and denying that all of the like. It went through kind of multiple stages and in the end they've just come out and said, oh, yep, it happens anyway. Fascinating story, Sean. Immediately after the show, stay listening. We've got an interview coming up today, something a little bit different. Dave Ward, managing director International at Ring. Ring Doorbells. These are amazing things.

Ring door bells. They are great. They've video door bells, and we talked to him about, well, the growth in these video door bells, but what their uses for. I mean, you know you'd use them obviously for people at the front door, but they have many, many more uses. And like we've been doing so much economics and politics and investing, we thought we'd just have a total change of pace and kind of something that affects us all. And so Dave's a great advocate for these products, and it's just really interesting to hear his take on where it's going, how they're used, where we're going to get to and particularly how Ring is using AI such that you don't have to search for things that happen during the day. You can basically, you know, type in want to know who run over the garden and the video will come up because the AI can interpret what you're asking.

Yeah, it's actually really cool. It is coming up next to the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is where you sign up for the Fear and Greed newsletter as well. Thank you very much, Sean.

Thank you, Michael.

It is Thursday, the twenty seventh of March twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.