Fast Politics with Molly Jong-FastSlate’s Dahlia Lithwick examines the Supreme Court’s mixed messaging. Legendary economist Paul Krugman analyzes Trump’s continued crashing of the markets. Plus, we have a bonus from our YouTube channel where I discuss how Democrats can effectively lead with The Bulwark Daily podcast host Tim Miller.
Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, where we discussed the top political headlines with some of today's best minds, and President Trump has suggested sending Tesla vandals to prison.
In El Salvador. We have such a great show for you today.
Slate's Dahlia Lithwick stops by to talk to us about the Supreme Court's mixed messaging. Then we'll talk to legendary economist Paul Krugman about Trump's continued crashing up the markets. Plus we have a bonus from our YouTube channel where I discuss how Democrats can effectively lead.
With The Bulwark's own Tim Miller. But first the.
News my only about two months into Trump's administration. I'm tired of winning with the economy. I mean, all I see is winning everywhere.
Yeah, I think you're being a little bit ironic here me. I'm seeing a touch a sarcasm. So the markets were jubilant after Donald Trump won. There's a sort of fallacy the Republicans are always good for the market, despite what history shows. Trump has this trade war going. It mostly mimics how he feels it's on. It's off, it's on, it's off, you know, We saw this week that Laura Ingram did an interview with Trump where she asked him why he wanted to go to war with Canada.
His people were not pleased.
There was a lot of maga pushback, mad at her for asking the mango god king a question that wasn't laudatory. Fox is still owned by someone who is not Donald Trump, and that is a guy called Ruper Murdoch.
And Rupert Murdoch.
Is not the Sicka fan that Jadie Van says. So Fox Knew suddenly panics about Trump's economy as a brutal new poll hits. So Maria Bartiromo, who is the money honey, and other Fox News personalities grow unnerved about Trump's economy. A sharp observer of right wing media breaks down the real for the alarm and why it make it worse. So basically Fox News people are. They see what's happening. They see the market giving up the gains of the last two years. We see Scott Bassett, who is Trump's Treasury secretary, is supposed to have grown up in the room saying that perhaps maybe you know, a recession might be good. We might or not be good, but it might be coming, which in itself. Is very unusual for people an administration to talk about a recession, because remember, they don't want a recession, and part of a recession is you talk about a recession, you get a recession. A new NBC poll finds that Trump's approval on the economy is sinking.
Instead of like he.
Might have in from one point zero, instead of pausing and maybe going back and forth on the tariffs, he's actually just so emboldened that he doesn't really care voters are. They're starting to sour on the state of the economy and Trump's handling of it so far. This is reflected in this new national NBC poll, bulloyed by jubilant and unified Republicans who are starting in lockstep with Trump, the agenda and his congression leadership or pushing is not popular, and that's what we're seeing more and more. Right, and Trump's approval rating well, still higher than it's been, is the lowest for any new president, and so you know, it's slightly higher than it was in Trump one point zero, but still there was a period right after Trump won where his approval was actually shockingly good, and he's squandering that quickly by firing the federal government and using an unelected billionaire to do it.
Fun stuff. Speaking of the very bad job they're doing on the economy. One of the things Howard Lutnik, who's supposed to be really helping that along it, is encouraging people to buy Tesla stock, which turns out the legality might not be so good.
Yes, so Connolly calls for an investigation into Lutnik. Here's what's happening here. Lutnik went on too, he is probably going to be the first member of Trump World to get cut when they assume when they start cutting players in this team. Latnik goes on television a lot. He says a lot of really wild stuff. This time, he went on, he told people that they should buy Tesla. Now.
Trump has already had.
A car show event earlier on right where he was holding a little car, where he talked about how much Tesla's cost et cetera, et cetera.
But this I think.
Is even more kind of beyond the pale of usual government actors. I mean, technically, Howardnik, he's the Commerce segretary. He he doesn't actually work for Elon Musk, though everyone in Trump's administration does work.
For Elon Musk.
Jerry Connolly, who is ranking member of the House known to be elderly, was given this job over AOC, who is known to be a really good communicator. He said that these comments violate these standards of ethical conduct, and he would like to raise alarm about this. Now, if he had someone like AOC as a ranking member of oversight and she made an allegation like this, she could go on her Instagram to her ten million plus followers and explain to them what this means. But because you have this elderly congressman who is not a good communicator, though I'm sure he's wonderful and I'm sure a lot of people felt they owed him favored so they had to vote for him, you have someone who is not a good communicator. So well, he may say this, people won't hear it because he does not have the channels to express it. So AOC could have made this a huge issue in the mainstream media and in this social media, and you know, you could have young people talking about the ethical conflicts of Howard Lutnik. But you won't because you have Jerry Connolly, who was it was his turn saying this to in a press release, that no one will ever read.
So I don't know if you watched the footage of represent Harriet Hageman's town hall, but I've spent some time in Wyoming. Oddly enough, I know that wouldn't be expected of me, and that is not the behavior I expected at a Wyoming town hall.
Yes, Harriet Hageman, I would like to just provide a little backstory. She occupies the one congressional seat in Wyoming that had been occupied by fierce liberal, the most liberal, Liz Cheney. You may remember, Liz Cheney, daughter of Dick Cheney, not exactly a liberal, kicked out because she was not sufficiently trumpest. She has been replaced by Harriet Hageman, who looks like a character out of Harry Potter with tiny glasses. She gave a town hall and her people were not taking it. They booed and chanted down. Her constituents were mad. She said, Doge is not dismantling social Security. Hundreds of people jeered, the crowd chanted deport elon. We have woman from the Agriculture Department, and Wyoming is a state with farmers who rely on government programs for drought and disaster relief. Donald Trump's plans to cut these programs. I mean, look, this is the problem with Doge right, this is all about tax cuts for very wealthy people, and you're cutting services so you can cut taxes for people like Elon Musk. Period paragraph. This has nothing to do with anything else. There is no financial emergency. They are cutting the government so that wealthy people can get taxes.
That's it.
So it's a hostile five hundred person craft. We're opposed to Hegeman and elements of Trump's agenda. Like, I hope there are people in Wyoming ready to run for that seat right there. You know, you don't need to be a Democrat. You can be a whatever. You could be a liberal, you could be a you know, there's a place for this.
Seems like a lot of people are going to run. And it is a cook plus twenty five pv I rating. But uh yeah, but so what Yeah, No, I think an independent could do very well there.
Now, Yeah, go be the change. Don't wait for Chuck Schumer. Dahlia Lithwick is a senior editor at Slate and the author of Lady Justice, Women, The Law and the Battle to Save America. Welcome Back, Too Fast Politics, Dahlia, you are my friend, but also like I think of you as a sort of an oracle. I'm sorry to tell you I take no pleasure in reporting that you are an oracle.
Well, i'll take it. Did that come with a parade? It does not, you in the content mills.
It comes with a little tiara made of daisies that I have made for you, But they are invisible daisies. Okay, so things are looking a little bit bleak right now, but you are here to tell us why not to despair?
Okay, I can do that, just kidding.
Oh good, good, good, all right, I'll take it.
I'm the cheerful oracle trader.
Right, there's a reason we didn't have your co host, who's so smart on Mark Joseph Mark, Yes, who's like we'reng gonna die?
You know, he's a broken digger. Yeah yeah yeah.
So where are we right now?
With the slow rolling constitutional crisis?
So this has been the week, Mollie where I have decided that weirdly enough, the are we or are we not? In a constitutional crisis question is not only like wrong and like creepily horse racie, like like oh my god, can we cross the red like the red tape? And be like, yes, it's a constitutional and like listening to you know, law professors, bless their hearts, like debate this in like little Arana. I think it's not like it literally feels like it's another iteration of like campaign coverage. Right, like the minute we can hit the button in the escape room and say constitutional crisis, then we can something yeah, yeah. And so I am trying to refocus by saying, yes, it is clearly a constitutional crisis. When a judge says, turn the planes around and the Justice Department not only refuses to do that, but then just like literally goes into court and says he you're a dumb dumb be your verbal order from the bench doesn't count. And see, we don't have to listen to you because Trump has like boundless Article two powers like we're there, right, it's done, and we'll no more. I think as Judge Boseberg's order that has to do with this, you know, the Venezuelan migrants, as this gets sort of parsed, but I think it's fair to say we're there. So then for me, the question is what does it mean for the average American who's trying to decide whether to like go out in the streets and protest that we've crossed the ticker tape of constitutional crisis. And so what I'm trying to think about is like if we think about when democracies die in Hungary and in Poland and in Turkey and around the world, like we don't stop at the point that we've labeled something a domestic constitutional crisis. We just say, this is like an authoritarian takeover, this is a failure of democracy, and then we say to people, rather than waiting for judges to tell you that we're in that moment, like what are you going to do in that moment? So that's kind of where my head is, and I think it's not cheerful oracular talk, but I think a gentle reframe of how like waiting for Chuck Schumer to figure out whether he wants to call it a constitutional crisis can't be the play here.
Yes, basically, what's the same about Trump one point now and Trump two point zero is that they continue to just completely lose in core is that right it's right.
They lose overwhelmingly, they win almost never, and maybe more pointedly, they lose to Republican judges as much as they lose to right they lose because they're terrible, they're bad lawyers, and these are bad cases. And you're right, across the boards, they're getting slapped back by people who are appointed by you know, Bush and as much as they are losing to people appointed by Obama and Biden. So yes, they are the losingest losers when it comes to the raft of temporary restraining orders and permanent injunctions. Like they're losing, losing, losing, And you're exactly right. It's different from two point zero because now we are increasingly seeing two scary things. One is just flagrant violation and the other is attacking the judges personally. That used to be like Donald Trump would say it in a tweet and it would and there. Now we have this like cascade apparatus. Yeah, we got Pambondi who's also trashing judges. We've got Elon Musk who's financing.
And JD Vance who's saying fuck the judiciary altogether.
Right, I mean, we have the entire apparatus of the White House, and more scarily, you know, the Justice Department saying that rogue judges, you know, democratic loans should just be ignored, and that I think leads to John Roberts issuing that statement earlier this week, saying like, hey, hey, hey, hey, this is a red line. And maybe the only part of it that I would add which matters is increasing sense that judges are in danger.
I was actually going to the John Roberts statement next, because so much of the sort of the thought behind this, as we know from Project twenty twenty five, as we know from the Heritage Foundation, all the stuff that they outline this summer that then and people figured out they were going to do it was like not popular. So they said, oh, we're not going to do it, and everyone was like, well, why.
Would they lie?
So that crew right has is hoping to get all this stuff up to the Supreme Court. Right, I mean, that's the goal here, right, birth rights, citizenship. So much of this is to radically remake all of this. John Roberts, and he's made comments before, but I think the swiftness with which he made this, and again maybe I'm being overly optimistic, that's one of my priors.
But my question is.
It does seem like the Supremes. I mean, with the exception of Alito and Thomas, who are basically Fox News hosts at this point, they may not rubber stamp everything that's coming down the pike.
I think that's right. And you know, the best evidence we have is that order that you know, very brief order that came down two weeks ago in the USAID case.
Right.
This was, yeah, you know, a case that rocketed up to the court where the government didn't even want to honor already paid for right like contracts, it already been fulfilled, and we got ni paused to think that was five to four, right, So that's John Roberts and Amy Cony Barrett joining the liberals. That's an alarming ratio there, right, that was an easy case that should have been nine to nothing.
We can't default on our dad.
Yeah, and that contracts are contracts, right, right, you know, and then you get this like howling descent, right, like how dare this judge think that he can micro manage the government, which is exactly the language we're getting from the Trump administration. So let's be really clear. That's a knife edge kind of split. I guess the other thing I would say is you're exactly right, John Roberts, even in Trump one point, oh, was kind of famous for coming out when President Trump would go after a judge, which he did whenever he lost, and you know, name that judge and say that they were a foreigner or that they were you know, socialist or whatever. And John Roberts would make these again similarly kind of milk toasty. Hey, there's no such thing as an Obama judge and a Bush judge. Right, this is his kind of his jam. And then when he gives these annual sort of you know, New Year's Eve speeches about the state of the judiciary, he's always like, don't threaten judges and judicial independence matters, and this isn't how we do it.
So I think you're right.
This is of a piece with this like longstanding job he has kind of given himself, which is I shall fight for an independent judiciary and fight against attacks on judges. I think you're also right that the fact that this came down like lickety split immediately after Trump was calling for Judge Boseberg's impeachment, and the fact that it came down in the form of this kind of magisterial statement, right, he didn't like give this as a comment. He gave it as a statement, and that the sort of substance of the statement was you don't like an opinion, you appeal it up the chain. You don't like impeach the judge. Right, there's a system here. I think that I'm disinclined to read too much into what this means when these cases come to them. The merrits in no small part. And I think this is where your question started. Because the world we live in, the dismantling of the regulatory state, the like boundless theory of executive power, the you know, making it impossible to vote by doing away with the Voting Rights Act, and you know RUSHO and the cases that came after the gerrymanderin like we live in a world that John Roberts created and so correct. I think it's really really important to say, like that same kind of horse race, will he won't he John Roberts save the Republic or like you know, live in the smoldering ash heap. I think it's like really important to start the clock here on citizens united, you know, slow erosion of democracy and there's very little about the world we live in that doesn't go back to this like six' three supermajority takeover at the.
COURT i, mean that.
Is such a good, point so important and also, correct, right like This John, roberts goddess, here but the question Of John, roberts you know how much face heating is enough face? Heating but even, still like the thing about the idea of The Supreme court as a stop er only works if the administration is willing to follow the.
Law and that's why this is kind of if you're in the sort of authoritarian jello, wrestle it almost doesn't matter if you win or, lose because if you, win you one and you get to call it My Supreme court and you get to Clap John roberts right on the shoulder at the joint. Session i'd be, like, wink, wink thanks for you for, me every.
Buddy, yeah like.
My, court in which case you, win and if you, lose you just say what we're already hearing About Judge, bozburg which, is but you have no authority over. Me if you have given up on the rule of, law or you only believe in the rule of law when you, win then it doesn't. Matter AND i think that this is why it's really important to see this, boundless, endless sort of monarcic construction Of Donald. Trump, right he embodies the. Law he alone is the, emperor you, know and people Like Pam bondi are saying this right like this is you, know the lawyers in the, Administration Cash pateel writes children's books about.
It and SO i think it's just.
Really important to understand that this theory of unbounded executive authority to do not only do what you, want to decide somebody as a terrorist without any, proof disappear them to you, know a labor camp that you basically bribed your way into having In. Salvador like this stuff is the stuff of monarchs and. Authoritarians and so you win if you, win and if the court says you can't do, it and you, say but the court is irrelevant to, me you win as. Well and that's kind of the structural posture that not only they've put themselves, in but they're trying to condition us to.
Accept how do we get out of?
It, Oh i'm so glad this is the oracle part ding ding.
Dang, yes, yes, yes, YES i MEAN i think that this is a moment at which and my, God i've said this a thousand times to, You, molly BUT i think it's worth saying it can our.
Kind of popcorn emoji wait for the courts to save us, vibe which was the wait For muller to save, us wait For Jack smith to save. Us you, Know Sonny sonomayor is going to save, us like always thinking that the definition of democracy is that these checks and, balances one of them will kick in.
And save, us, Right they're not going to.
Exactly that's WHY i think constitutional crisis is just too narrow an. APERTURE i think we have to, say, wait, wait wait WHEN i look, back like power in here is in the. People it doesn't in here In Judge, boseburg although he is the guardian of. It it doesn't inhere IN. Aoc it is. Us and that's WHY i think it's incredibly. Important and we're seeing really good data suggesting that even though there wasn't a woman's, march and even though there hasn't been like a sort of single leader of you, know the resistance, movement that between the sort of tesla events and the town halls and people going out on the, streets we are seeing an actual grassroots often like led by various groups whose leaders we can't always, name but we are seeing pushback and whether it's somebody you know shouting at a town hall In wyoming or somebody protesting at A tesla. DEALERSHIP i think that this intuitive understanding that democracy is not a top down proposition is in people's like muscle. Memory we know, this and so WHAT i think we have to just. Metabolize and this is hard BECAUSE i think we're so used to thinking that a thing is going to happen in a, court, right or that a thing is going to happen out there and that's going to save. Us And i'll just say Again i've said it to you, before like the court doesn't have an. Army we're the court's. Army we're. It and SO i think that in terms of people kind of, understanding they're going to have to this is The Tim, snyder. Right you have to put your own corporeal body into this and not like lean back and hope for the. Best and the really good news is that every single expert in authoritarianism and fascism and autocracy will tell you that if you get some x percent of people out on the, streets you can claw this.
Back. Right, No, No AND i think that is absolutely the.
Answer.
Here now we have two seconds Of Molly john Fash shaw on And FREUDE i am delighted to see that.
There is A democratic tea party.
Rising there was so much top down leadership from The Democratic, party the consultant class saying you are allowed to do a five minute interw You democratic, politician but let me make sure that you say. Nothing you know how many interviews With democratic politicians HAVE i had where they Say america ka it ca because it can you, know like everything is straight out of fucking, veep because people are so scared to say anything, real because the status quo is good. Enough and as much AS i hate this moment In american life because it's so disgusting and so, stupid and we're watching the destruction of the federal government in real, TIME i hate. It the only only bright spot is watching people have to actually do something right like. That there is a sense in Which democratic politicians cannot say we're waiting to See trump's poll numbers go. Down they can't write that's not. Enough the base will not be satisfied with a we're waiting for his poll numbers to go. Down there's no time for. That as much AS i hate what's, happening the one good part is That democrats are, saying maybe this eighty year old representative.
Whose kids work at ten companies and.
Who has been full on in this like tech, oligarchy is perhaps not the person we want to lead.
Us, okay first of, all that should be set to music or printed in really tiny eye bumper. Sticker like everything you just said is completely. True AND i, think like again talk about knife, edge, right like we are right now trying to absorb the news that like law firm of The, resistance, right THE Dei Law, firm you, Know Paul weiss just completely capitulated To Donald trump's bullying and you know is, like not only will we obey in, advance but we will pay with pro bono work for the right to obey in. Advance. Right AND i think it's the same point over and over the same day that a young Associate Rachel cohen At Scandon arps is, like if you all like can't put your bodies into resisting, Fascism i'm out, Right AND i think that what you're describing and What i'm trying to like sort of light the road toward is that in, fact many of the huge wealthy corporate structures that we thought existed to resist authoritarianism are entirely, captured.
Right entirely and self. Captured they did it. Themselves i'm, sorry.
No, no WE'RE i, mean we're saying.
This it's.
Bezos it's all the newspapers that bent the. Knee it's all of the, like, oh we're The Washington. Post like democracy dies in, darkness and then you, know eight years, later it's, like, oh democracy dies at our hands because we're strangling it in The bathtom like. Good so let's all stipulate that money corrodes and corrupts institutions and that what rises in its, PLACE i think is really, powerful which is like this young associate, SAYING i didn't go to law school to be a handmaid to. Fascism i'm. Out and we're seeing. That AND i think part of the move fast and break, Things mollie is, that like people are just starting to be able to. Breathe, Yeah and if in, fact your first out breath when you kind of take like what and Then china and Then ukraine and we're Invading canada and like we're creatoring social, security if the first outbreath you.
Take is who are our?
Leaders this is a really challenging moment because a lot of them we don't know their names.
Yet, yeah that's a really good.
Point it's a really challenging moment because we don't know their names. Yet, DAHLIA i love. You getting to talk to you is a. BOMB i Just i'm so delighted to know.
YOU i feel exactly the same. WAY i want to say this in like you, know stentorian oracular, tones BUT i got. Nothing my voice is. Shut but thank you for all you, Do. Molly this is just going to be mutual's going to be a shit. Show, YEAH i keep telling, people it's not like a, marathon it's not a. Sprint it's a, relay and like everybody has to like pass the baton and knowing that you are there to receive it and to give it on and too like all of us are just gonna have to just run really fast knowing that somebody's at the other end of this leg of the. Relay so thank, you thank.
You Paul krugman is a Distinguished professor of economics at The Graduate center of The City university Of New, york and he is the author of a sub Stack welcome back To Fast. Politics Paul, Krugman, hi, There, hi very excited to have you on this.
PODCAST i read your substack every.
Day that's great to hear Since i'm writing it every.
Time SO i want.
To, say it's an incredibly fucked up, moment but it's really fucked up on the economic. Side it's funny because it's like so many of these people voted For trump because they thought or said that he'd be good on the. Economy but what they're doing on the economy right now is. Incomprehensible so explain to us what the theory. Is but what's really.
Happening what makes you think that there's a.
THEORY i, mean part of the point is the sain washing On trump's on, everything but certainly On trump's economic policy is. Enormous the really hard to figure. OUT i, mean if we ask what is he doing to fulfill his campaign promises to make groceries cheaper and all of, that the answer is. Nothing there is no. Plan he wants to put on tariff's taxes on important goods and not entirely. Clear the justifications keep. Changing but he has this idea that somehow or, other returning to the trade policies of eighteen ninety eight is going to do magical things for the. Economy and aside from, that it's a. HODGEPODGE i, mean there are multiple doctrines that seem to be floating around which are mutually, contradictory The marralagou, doctrine. Whatever if you actually ask what is it they're trying to, do what is their idea of how this is going to? Work that's a very hard question to, answer except they say that what makes you think there's any logical coherence to any of?
This?
Right the Mar lago doctor and Oh Jesus. Christ but Basically trump has decided tariffs are good for the, economy and the trade wars are good and easy to. Win last time he had trade, wars he had reduced the economy with tax. Cuts this, time the economy was in a very precarious.
State it was A goldilock's.
Economy but it had been you, know we were struggling with, inflation and well it had been good on. PEOPLE a lot of people were not happy with. It they didn't like the, inflation, right is that?
Fair, well a lot of. People the inflation really was pretty close to. Normal, AGAIN i measured at an annual, rate but the big inflation was really twenty twenty one twenty twenty two came as a shock after many years of low, inflation and people were sort of still. Upset people were going to. Store they still remembered what things had cost before the, pandemic and then wanted to know why prices couldn't come back. Down And trump just promised that he would bring them back, down which was an impossible. Promise what's really amazing about the current and it is not just that the policies themselves are wildly. DESTRUCTIVE, Us canada And mexico are very Much they're just a there's no such thing as A us manufacturing sector. Anymore there's A North american manufacturing. Sector parts of an automobile may cross one or both of the borders seven or eight times before you have a finished. Automobile and to be slapping twenty five percent tariffs on that is really really. Bad but then to be putting tariffs on and then, off and then on and then off so that nobody knows what the policy really, is that's even. Worse imagine yourself as an auto industry. EXECUTIVE i know that might be a little, hard but you, know and you're trying to decide whether to invest money in upgrading Your mexican operations or trying to bring some of them back to The United. States either one of those could be turned out to be totally wasted money because depends on which policy we're going to, follow and nobody has any.
IDEA i want to go back to that for a, second because we're talking about markets hate.
Uncertainty you just.
Want to know what the plan, is and in, fact what we're seeing with the pullback now that perhaps stumbling into, recession which has now been mused, about by the, way just talk about how abnormal it is to have an administration be like we might have to have a. RECESSION i, mean doesn't that sort of shock you to hear best and say, that.
YEAH i, mean first of, all it's really weird to hear that The treasury secretary sounding more pessimistic than private sector forecasters who think that every recession is, possible and he's almost declaring, that, oh we're going to have to go through a lot of pain and for. What, well that's the. Thing, this this whole, storyline which is, oh the economy prosperity Under biden was fake because was all government, jobs which it takes you about ninety seconds online to find out that that's just not. True it just isn't it all where we. Were there's both a story about where we are which is just not true about this bloated government, sector which we have a government sector that's been kind of starved for funds for many decades, now and we have a plan to rebalance the, economy but there is no. Plan what you have Is Elon musk's little helpers running around and mucking things, up but not actually saving a significant amount of.
Money so, right that was, amazing by the.
Way that Was david Fahrenhol to basically figuring out that they're actually government spending his flat or maybe up a tiny.
Bit, yeah and you know those numbers a little but if you actually ask what documented savings has those, achieved and the answer is. None what they've done is they put out several supposed tallies receipts of their, accomplishments which are full of incredible, errors miss reading eight million is eight, billion counting the same contract three. Times if you were an employer and you had an employee who messed up that, badly you wouldn't be giving him more. Authority you'd be having security escort him out of the. BUILDING i mean this is.
Agredible, yeah, yeah let's sort of talk this through.
Here we, are we are in the precipice of this like great. Pain the way they're selling it is that this pain will lead to, something the thing that they keep not saying or they keep. Saying but what seems like the underlying idea here is that tariffs will bring Back american, manufacturing right that the things that were manufactured In china will now be manufactured.
Here how would that even.
Work you, know if you had five hundred percent terriffs or you, know sufficiently high, terriffs you basically shut down the international trade and we start to produce everything, ourselves which is. Feasible you can imagine that, happening but it would make us. Poorer and you, know there are multiple reasons for. That but if you think about your, clothing it's really labor intensive and it really does not make sense for us to produce clothing except, for you, know some very high end stuff in The United. States when there are people out there in places Like bangladesh who are desperate for the. Work there are lots of jobs by our, standards but there are better than the alternatives by their. Standards so you, know there are benefits to international, trade and even with all of, THAT i suppose that somehow managed to completely eliminate the trade. Deficit some of us have been looking At. Germany germany runs enormous trade, surpluses which is actually kind of a. Problem but, anyway The german manufacturing sector has been shrinking over time because modern economies just need fewer people in manufacturing than they did half a century. Ago so you, know if you're Saying i'm on an industry to dominate the economy the way it did in the nineteen, fifties people don't want to buy that. Stuff that's LIKE i, SAY i want us to go back to being a nation of. Farmers that's not going to.
Happen.
YEAH i mean you wrote a piece about making sweatshops great.
Again, yeah AND i think that was ultimately the play. Here. RIGHT a lot of this is.
About going back to a time When america was great for white, men and there's a sort of fantasy, economy you, know the Smooth holly.
Tariffs.
Right Some one thing THAT i think it's important to say here is that we think of manufacturing jobs as being good, jobs but they weren't always good. Jobs the fact the garment industry was for much of its history a really terrible industry to work. In even the auto industry was not. Great the reason why manufacturing jobs were for a wild good jobs is that they had strong. Unions so you, know you can if you bring back, manufacturing but don't bring back the. Unions all you're doing is creating some not especially great jobs and at the same time making everything more. Expensive.
Right and, look one of the problems we had for the twenty twenty four, election which, we for whatever reason have memory, hold is that there was a very tight labor. Market people did not want a lot of these. Jobs and in fact we found and there was Really The times did amazing reporting on, this that there were children working in a lot of these, factories right because they were illegal, immigrants were children and they had come over Because american citizens didn't want these.
Jobs.
YEAH i think about, agriculture and this is. TRUE a lot of, MANUFACTURING i, mean meat packing is largely, immigrants and many of them. Undocumented agriculture is largely, immigrants many of them. Undocumented because we're a rich, country wealth and income are very unevenly. Distributed but even, so most native Born americans have better alternatives than picking. Strawberries and so the idea that either that we can bringing back manufacturing is going to make us rich again or, richer or that we will be richer if we reserve the jobs that are currently being done by immigrants.
For native born.
Workers both of those are just you, know this is some of those jobs that immigrants are taking right, now and ask yourself how many people In america really want to do those.
Jobs let's have a thought, experiment perman to say, today you wanted to fix where we're going, here what would you do if you Were Scott bassant and you you, know it was switched at birth right or whatever it, was you, know Freaky friday where you switch, bodies what would you do to fix this sort of trajectory we're.
On, well the trouble.
Is That trump is the kind of, person which is, actually i have to, say quite common among powerful and rich, people kind of person who only hears what he wants to hear and surrounds himself with people who tell him what he wants to. Hear so he's had this fixation on tariffs for a long. Time and If Scott bessen were to, say you, know Mister, PRESIDENT i think you know you're going overboard. Here, well we pretty soon have a New treasury, secretary we have an imperial, presidency would the autocratic presidency with some guy who has convinced himself that he has the secret to, Prosperity AND i don't know that there's any way to move. It THE us economy As january, twentieth you, know had, problems as any economy, does but it was. Okay inflation was pretty, low, low unemployment was quite. Low there were lots of things you could try to, reform but this kind of we're going to tear it up by the, roots and there was no reason to do that except that this all comes from the mind Of Donald.
Trump, yeah but if you were theoretically to do, it what you would do is you would end all the. Tariffs you would say, whatever and then you would continue on This biden pass. Right.
YEAH i mean there were a couple of. Things was by no means free, markets free, trade trade, purist.
Certainly not, right and markets Hated Lena khan that.
Too she was definitely fighting monopoly. Power but we were starting to spend quite a lot of money on advanced, technology largely for national security, reasons and spending a lot of money on subsidizing green energy for saving the planet. Reasons and both of those were quite nationalistic. Policies, obviously as you're trying to PROMOTE us production of the dance, technology that has to be. Nationalistic but the green energy policies were pretty By american, too because that was how you made them politically. Saleable, SO i, mean what we really should have had is a, bigger non mansionized version Of biden's industrial. Policies IF i had no political, constraints.
That's WHAT i.
Do i'd be doing a lot of expenditure on strategic, industries on green. Industries that's what you need to, do which is not the same as going back to whatever the global marketplace says is. Right but it's also not going to just scatter brain tariffs.
Right, right and that is absolutely setting up a fiesque.
Situation so let me ask.
You as you're watching this economy right, now what are the sort of things that you are watching that are making you kind of sort of the most nervous as you watch, things and what are the things that make you think maybe will be okay?
Here, Okay consumers are sounding very, upset and there are at least hints in the data that they're actually starting to pull. Back there's often people will say the economnyst. Lousy now let me go out and spend a lot of. Money but right now it does look as if people are in fact beginning to pull. Back so we're a little weak. There business, investment you wouldn't expect to see it, now but every survey of businesses says that businesses are basically pulling back to wait and see. Inflation you, know if these talents actually, happen then that right away is going to add two or three percent to the cost of. Living if deportations really gather, steam that's going to add a whole other bunch to the cost of, living especially food, prices but also construction a lot of immigrants there. Too we have the elements in there for, stagflation for a combination of a.
Recession can you explain to our listeners and more importantly, me remind me what stagflation looks.
Like look nineteen eighty with high unemployment and nine percent, inflation that's. Stagflation so the end of the, seventies when we went into a deep, recession which was basically deliberately and when The Federal reserve imposed a recession to try and bring inflation, down and it took a while for inflation to come, down so you had a period of high inflation and high. Unemployment or if you go back a little, bit there was also a soaring oil prices after The Iranian, Revolution so you have inflation because of the oil, prices and you have unemployment because the oil prices are also causing a. Recession this is all stuff that. Classic we remember these, things but these things were the last time we had it was largely external. Events it was wars in The Middle, east and to some, extent irresponsible, policy but mostly it was that we kind of things got out of. Control what we have now and we've never had this, before is it looks like we have policies that will kind of do this to. Ourselves we will create inflation with tarris and mass, deportations will create unemployment by creating so much uncertainty that businesses and consumers pull. Back and there's definitely a story whereas sometime next year we have got both frighteningly high unemployment and frightening the high, inflation, right and.
That's really a nightmare. Scenario All krugman thank you so.
Much, well thank.
You Tim miller is a host of The Bulwark daily. Podcast Hi, Tim Hey.
MOLLY i always forget it's been a, while and for a WHILE i was like the top guest, here and you, know then things got busy AND i forget. That this show kind of starts with you just being, like, what, hey there's no you, know welcome To Fast.
Politics we actually do do intro where We i'm aware my experience and my experience of the show is is just this part, Anyway we're just.
Delightful so and we actually were on a show together last week and it was very.
Fun, yeah you our best out, here.
Which was ten years.
Ago remember when there was when you did that, audit the republican audit of like the autopsy autopsy.
You grew up an opportunity project, actually so it was called, formally.
Do you think that there is like is there a democratic version of?
THAT i guess the big lesson from the, audit as you called, it was that, actually the people don't really care THE dc And snyder's, one, honestly and we learned that lesson several times, now going back To Barack obama in two thousand and, eight all the way through To Donald trump. Presidencies, NOW i think that there's certain things that The democrats could reflect on and learn that would be applicable no matter who the nominee. Is for, example in the souttern media, age it's probably good to do a lot of media than to be out there and to be less cautious and to be less wound. Tight you know WHAT i? Know isn't that? Crazy crazy? Notion? Now AS i say, THIS i was joking With Ben dreyfus ON x about. This i'm On Blue sky, now BUT i was joking With ben ON x about, this AND i was, like you, know here's the. Thing, THOUGH i can give all this advice in an audit through on, balance but like the most likely, scenario there's some less likely scenarios that are way worse than. This but the most likely, scenario in my, opinion is that this administration is such a fucking nightmare and such a disaster for so many people that The democrats could do anything next, time earn nothing from this last, election, right the same flause that they had last time and went just because people are so. Sick and that's especially if there's an economic collapse or recession that there are ways that it could go, differently but, LIKE i think that's probably you looked at all the various outcomes the most likely, outcome so you, know maybe the people by twenty twenty eight are so desperate for anything Besides trump that a very cautious talking point To democrat could. Through but like, unbalanced just in, GENERAL i just think The republican message machine is just so much better now AND i think that's something That democrats could could learn from what the New democrat. Does from a policy. Standpoint it's always funny every expert you have is, like, WELL i wish THAT i think The democrats could win if The, canada did you know express views THAT i, have, right, right of, course you.
Know WHAT i?
Mean, yeah, YEAH i MEAN i would love for it to be some you, know more Moderate, democrat BUT i don't know that that's necessarily. TRUE i think there are a lot of different ways to do it, ideologically AND i think we learned in twenty twelve that just because THE dc types want a certain type of, ideology like the voters get to have their.
Saye you, Know.
I'm glad you brought a priors because that's SOMETHING i think about all the, time, right what are my priors and how are they informing my decision here like? That SO i was glad you said that BECAUSE i do often bristle when and you, KNOW i get in this with a, lot you, know Whenever Trump republicans are, like, yeah we really shouldn't be paying for, eyeglasses you, know or free.
Breakfast you. Know i'm, like, yeah of course you, don't you.
Know SO i was glad that you talked about. That BUT i also think it's a negative even for, liberals, Right, LIKE i know my priors are, like you, know limousine, liberal, right just pay more taxes and and give or kids stuff so THAT i can you, know make movies about. It and the other thing is that THAT i was glad you talked also about was, communication because that is this thing that gets me the most furious with The democratic. Establishment, yeah, no for.
Sure and, LOOK i was on The Steph rule last night and it's funny because she was, like she's playing a clip From bernie AND aoc and then an op ed From David, french you, Know trump, hero And David french was, saying you, know The democrats shouldn't do what The republicans did with the tea party and get angry and get out, there and she's, like what say, You, Tim AND i was, LIKE i, mean on this, one tactically, SPEAKING i got a signed With bernie AND aoc on this. One it's not my dream tick for twenty twenty, eight of, course but at least they are out there getting attention and making an argument and making a case to. People a lot of people out. THERE i think about all the discussion about The Democratic rogan and the bro podcast, world and some of the discussion is, silly but there's one element of it that's. True there are a lot of dudes out. THERE i know some of, them and women, frankly but mostly it's like some of these podcasts that don't really follow the news right and aren't particularly. IDEOLOGICAL i probably would like a lot of things That bernie AND aoc have to, say probably like all the things that, matter like Jos shapiro would have to, say honestly right like they. Did they're not Ideological and the only thing that they were hearing was From. Trump all they're hearing was From trump because he's, everywhere and all they were hearing About democrats was negative shit That trump and his people, say and so you ask why are young men more conservative now than old? Men and it's, like well that's. Why just at, minimum like at Least bernie AND aoc break. Through and some of those young men will be turned Off albernie naosis and aren't going to be. Gettble that's, fine but some of them will be, like oh, wait like they're actually making more sensible, points you, Know and and then that you start to clos some people. Back so you, KNOW i just think that element of it is a no. Brainer but it's it's easier said than.
Done you.
Know that's something we saw a, lot. Right trump won by just going places and talking, yes.
And he brought on new people and.
Again to hear more of this, conversation please head over to our YouTube. Channel you can Search Fast politics on. YouTube No, Normal Jesse, cannon Poly Junk.
Fast So trump trying to dismantle The department Of education is going to be a, massive massive. Worm we're already seeing it ramp.
Up.
Yeah so remember When project twenty twenty five talked about dismantling The department Of education and everyone was, like, yeah but it's not actually going to do. That, well he's actually going to fucking do. That so The department Of, education here's what they, do those. Cocks they provide low, income rural disabled students with money that they desperately need so that they can go to school or go to. College Or trump world would like to replace slow income children with tax cuts for. Billionaires so, rural smaller school districts will rely on The department Of education for technical assistance for implication of The title one, grants they're going to be completely out of. Luck it will. Be department Of education also sets perimeters around accommodations for disabled. Students they help schools for.
The deaf and the.
BLIND i, mean this is like such a disgusting attack on the federal. Government it's an attack On Red, states right on people In Red. States and we shouldn't be. Surprised it was talked about In project twenty twenty.
Five it is absolutely what this crew is set on.
Doing it's what they want wanted to, do it's what they've dreamed of, doing and we should not be surprised to see.
It but it's still really.
Disgusting if they are able to do, it the people who will suffer will be kids In Red, states public school students in red. States it will hurt low income and rural. Schools low income and rural people voted For. Trump now they will suffer Because trump wants to Give Elon musk a tax. Cut so congratulations to all who made this. Happen we'll see some, pushback but you, know Ultimately republicans have rolled. Over we'll see What democrats can. Do that's it for this episode Of Fast. Politics tune in Every, Monday, Wednesday, thursday And saturday to hear the best minds and politics make sense of all this. Chaos if you enjoy this, podcast please send it to a friend and keep the conversation.
Going thanks for.
Listening
