Which dynasty player values were most impacted by free agent signings? On today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast, Borg, Betz, and Jason discuss teams with the most change from NFL Free Agency. Plus, how to shift your dynasty focus moving forward, and under-the-radar signings to pay attention to! Players discussed: Caleb Williams, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, Justin Herbert, and others! Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for March 20th, 2024.
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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a Baller.
Welcome in.
It's Wednesday, March twentieth. We're back Denis Footballer's Dynasty Podcast. I'm your host, Kyle Organoni and I'm joined by Matthew Betts and Jason Moore. The Boys are back.
It's been forever, man, I feel like we haven't talked to Jason in two months on this show. Jason, what's new Man, what's doing life?
I think it's been quite two months, but it's it's been a minute. I had to travel across the country for a while and do some things. But I'm happy to be here, happy to be back and catch up on all this madness of the twenty twenty four free agency.
Jason, you were just checking up on your East Coast boys, because that's Bets and I we're East Coast. So I just want to ask you, like you actually, I think you flew during time change, like right when day Let's so like, yeah, was everything just off? You're like, oh, this is what life is like on this side of this country.
It was. It was wildly different. Like obviously I know the time difference, it's three hours, like whatever. But it was so weird man to be like I because I'm not usually an early riser, a go getter U if you if you want to call it that, I'm not the early bird getting that worm. But when I went to this trip to New York, we were just packed very you know, the schedule started early, so by the time five o'clock rolls around, I'm I'm like, I've lived a life. I've lived an entire year in that day. And then I'm seeing messages from our company slack channel. It's like, what's our lunch order? I'm like, wait, you guys are still at work and you're ordering lunch. What is happening.
That's that's how Bets and I feel all the time, where like you know, sometimes we'll get asked the question. We're like, it's like four point thirty five here, and uh, you know it's it's it's a different life, but we like living it with you, Jason. So we're glad you're back, and Bets, You've had a couple of things go on, a couple of life happenings, a big weekend even so, any news you want to share with the with the foot clan.
Oh Man, Well, my wife and I have decided that two wasn't enough.
We're gonna have a third.
Uh see.
We've known that news for a little while obviously, but we did our our big gender reveal this weekend with the family and some friends, which was a lot of fun. And it turns out I'm gonna be having three girls point in my life, ages thirteen to fifteen at the exact same time. So I'll be going on a two year golf trip at that point.
Yeah, don't you worry about thirteen and fifteen. Worry till they're fifteen and seventeen. You're gone. Yeah, I got I've got the just turned fifteen year old daughter, and one is a lot to handle. My friend, lady enjoy I pray for me.
Pray for me.
Yeah, for sure, you're gonna need the decade long lead up of print.
You are hilariously outnumbered in your family. Just like it's not just like, oh, we had twin girls, you know, early on, it's like, no, you're just done. You're you're you're an afterthought.
Bets in the face, Me and the dog, just the two of us.
Yeah, No, it's it's great news. It's fun. We get to share a lot of stuff about our families in the company too, But we are going to be talking about some of the aftermath of free agency and talk about team opportunity, which is the way that we describe teams in Dynasty. They're kind of windows for contracts. When we talk about certain players like, oh, they signed a three year contract, We're like, well, this is really just a two year deal. And so a lot of times when we look at team environments team opportunity, it's easy to only look at this year, but forget things change so much. So we'll talk about teams in free agency that change. For instance, the Chargers, this is a completely different team, right, This is a team that had you know, Keenan Allen since twenty thirteen, Ekler and Mike williamsonce twenty seventeen, and now it's just completely different at the identity. So we'll talk about the implications for Dynasty, how you can look at it and how you can move forward. All of the changes, though, are in the Ultimate Draft Kit. You can go to udkplus dot com and we're up today. I mean, Jason, you got to come back in style and know that everything's taking care of We're like, the teams are updated, the opportunities are updated, the contracts they're all there.
Yeah, And that was the first thing I did when I got back. I took a look at the Dynasty rankings because a lot of these moves, you know, they make a big impact on specifically the Dynasty rankings. Free agency. You know, obviously everything's going to affect redraft because it's just what happens for me this year. But when you look at the contracts that are dold out during free agency, you can learn so much and get an advantage as a Dynasty player of like, oh, this guy got a four year deal. No, I didn't look like this is going to be a two year deal. You don't know, those those slight edges.
We've got some behind the scenes stuff that we're also adding. I'm working on an article right now. I've looked at every single This is really boring, but I looked at every single tight end contract over the last decade, and I just want to tell you this, boys, you did, I did, and you know what I found.
Out just style research of all time.
What'd you find out, Kyle?
I found out that teams are hilariously bad at drafting Titans, like so bad that over the last decade, only fifty of those Titans drafted in the NFL draft even finish their rookie contract on their own team. Like it's it's not just do they get a second contract, it's they don't even finish, like after two or three years, like half of them are just on a different team or out of the league. So you have to think about that when you're drafting, and you're drafting a team, you're not just saying, oh, this is gonna be their situation forever. It's it changes. So we have a lot of good stuff Ultimate Draft Kit at udkplus dot com. But before we get into the big stories, Before we get into the big stuff, I want to find some under the radar stuff. I know there's people they're scouring the waiver wire or they're trying to make some deals that are under the radar. You know, it's one thing to say, hey, trade for Drake London right now, except the prices skyrocket in the last two weeks. I want to hear some names or some low key free agent signings and maybe some implications for dynasty. So Bets, I will let you start first with one of my boys, one of my one of my former you know, personal favorite players, dirty Curtis Samuel, Dirty Curtis.
Dirty Curtis, as we called him on the DFS Show a time or two. I'll be honest, I have a little bit of a bias towards Curtis Samuel. I've always liked him as a player. And when he came out of Ohio State years ago, which he's been in the NFL for forever, but he's still only twenty seven years old. You know, he was kind of a running back, played some like slot wide receiver gadget role, and really he kind of I think he's been good as an NFL wide receiver, but he has flourished when he's been given an opportunity to be what he was in college, which is kind of this manufactured touch guy. A few carries here and there, some jet sweeps, you know, screens, that sort of thing. I think he's gonna get that again in Buffalo because he goes to the Bills on a three year deal worth about twenty four million dollars, which is not nothing, and when you look at this depth chart, they kind of need him, right. We've got Steph Diggs, who we talked about him at length on this show is starting to show some early signs of maybe he's not the same guy. Khalilshak Here is I think an okay like NFL wide receiver three. I don't know that he's really gonna level up and be a difference maker. They lose gave Davis and we liked it in Kikaid. But there is a role for Curtis Samuel in this offense. And know when he was with Joe Brady, who is the OC now back in their Carolina days. I pulled an old quote before it was called X on Twitter from twenty twenty October fifteenth. Joe Brady had this to say about Curtis Samuel. Any kind of success we have had is because of Curtis Samuel, so much of what he does doesn't show up on the stat sheet. I think Joe Brady loves this dude. I think you see that in the signing. I think this role is going to be legit for Curtis Samuel, who, by the way, earned targets at a higher level than both of Johan Dotson and Terry mcclaurin last year in Washington.
I'm terrified because I think we're all on the same page. I know yesterday Andy and Jason were also quietly saying they like this signing. So this is really good, but we also know this is sometimes really bad. We're all on in the same player. But it's a great situation. But I'm also just terrified.
Yeah, I'm in on Curtis Samuel. He's not as old as he feels. He's been around the league a long time, He's had several contracts. Feels like he's should be thirty two, He's not. He's not past his prime. I think he's got enough left to give. And when you're on a great offense, I mean, we saw Gabe Davis be really relevant from game to game, obviously very irrelevant sometimes, but Gabe Davis is not as good a player as Curtis Samuel.
It'll be interesting the type of routes he like, you know, where they utilize him, because early on in Carolina it was kind of like this, we use him in gadget role, but he can win down the field, and this team desperately does need players that can win down the field. Like we saw Dalton Kinkaid become a reliable PPR target, but we also saw with Stefan Diggs. This just wasn't open deep or intermediate, so this team needs deep speed and he still has it at twenty seven. So I don't know, would you be willing to Curtis Samuel or the two to zero three bets.
U two three's probably where I just hold the pick, But I don't even know if you need to get that to get Curtis Samuel. I think, I mean, at this point he's been round, there's so much name fatigue. It's like, that's Curtis Samuel. You can might even mill get him for like a late second, honestly, which I would do. But at two of three I think I would. I would hold the pick. Okay, interesting, where are you and.
I I no, I'm I'm definitely I would. I would have the two o three. But I said interesting because I started to think, I don't think this is the type of player that you're trading a pick for. You know, it's like a second rounder. Okay, you'll probably get him, but you might not want to give it up. The third rounder probably doesn't get him, and so you're kind of stuck in the middle. If I if I could trade any third rounder for Curtis Samuel, I do that in heartbeat so I was thinking, like, what's the type of player, you know, maybe you try to get out of a bust, you know. And then I started thinking about my own team and a team we're gonna be We're gonna be talking about this player later this episode. But I've got Traylon Burks on my roster. He's you know, he's still young, Kyle. I think you've talked about him as like he's still what's the phrase as you've used with him, where like you're holding hope or he.
Has a pulse, like he's he's not dead yet, you know.
And it's like, I feel like I could get Curtis Samuel plus for Treylon Burks in a Dynasty league. And Curtis Samuel's he's just gonna be better than Treylon Burks. So if I could get maybe I'll get a three or a two back and see if I can swing a deal like that.
Yeah, I have Curtis Samuel league in a Dynast league, and it's like he's a great hold right now. I can maybe get some flex weeks out of him. But Jason, who do you have under the radar?
Pick?
And and really way more guaranteed money than I thought they were going to get.
Yeah, I've actually got a couple of names here, depending on how under the radar versus how just like important, it's going to be super under the radar would be Jamis excuse me, super under the radar would be Jameis Winston goes and signs with the Cleveland Browns. This is Deshaun Watson whatever. He's paid enough money, he's gonna be the starter. He didn't make it through this season. I don't know that he does next season. But it's nice to have a competent backup, even if you're just looking at like, oh, I like Amari Cooper. Well, I like Amari Cooper probably more with Jameis Winston than I do with uh, you know, than I do with Voldemort. So he's interesting. Devin Singletary, to me, is interesting. He's always just been this cast out nobody ever wants, no team wants in the NFL, no fantasy manager wants. He just quietly gets it done. It scores a decent amount of fantasy points from time to time, and now he looks like he could be the dude replacing you know, Saquons. So that's important. But the one when I look at like the free agency winners, the guys who hit the market and the next season they are great for fantasy. It's usually when they signed again for the same team that they were on and had a little success and versus the splash the big deals, which are the ones that are changing teams that gets all the publicity. But the doctor Dalton Schultz, going back to C. J. Stroud where he was very relevant on this is the money that you were talking about that you were surprised with. He gets a three year, thirty six million, twenty three and a half million guaranteed deal to re sign with the Texans. It is for dynasty purposes, really a two year deal. There's almost no dead cap in the third year. They could cut him. Obviously, if he's doing great, they would play it out. But for the most part, it's a two year deal where you're gonna have a very relevant fantasy player and there's not People aren't fighting over themselves to get Dalton Schultz. You know, they'll they'll give up anything right now for Trey McBride and you know, if you can get your hands on Sam Laporte, the future of the position. But like Dalton Schultz is gonna be he's gonna be getting it done. He's gonna be championship winning teams. As he goes out there and you know, scores eight points a week and when he gets a touchdown, ends up, you know, with with a nice fourteen point game in that in the Fantasy playoffs with CJ. Stroud dealing. So he is I think probably gonna be undervalued.
Yeah, and it's not a sexy player on your roster, but he had a stretch I believe it was like seven or eight weeks where he was a top three tight end. It wasn't just like, oh he's giving you, you know, top ten numbers where you're just kind of floating like he can have those spike weeks and it's an offense for clearly buying into. So I like that one. Also maybe some of your best nickname work over the years.
I like her.
I love the Doctor.
It's yeah to doctor Saltz baby. I mean, it's it's low hagg and fruit.
It's good.
It is.
It's good stuff. I'm gonna throw out under the radar signing and what it means because DJ Dallas went to the Cardinals and you might say, oh, cool, I need to scoop him up. This is signing to me, says, this is really really good for James. DJ Dallas's three year deal about two point four million guaranteed, but he's basically going to be a special teams kick returner. He's a jack of all trades but master of none running back, Like, you don't have to worry about DJ Dallas taking away work from James Connor. And I think it's interesting with Connor because at his age, he's twenty eight point eight years old, he's actually playing out his full contract, which is not something you usually see with running backs. This is the third year of a deal that he signed in twenty twenty two. This team could have moved on, but the way that he played down the stretch was incredible. His roster bonus just hit a couple days ago, so he's on this team. He's getting some awesome bonuses too. In his contract. His cap hits eight point nine million, Like they're paying this guy to be the RB one. And you saw last year down the stretch, he was a wrecking ball that final five game stretch. Twenty two point six fantasy points per game, twenty four opportunities per game. I mean, he was just incredible. And the rest of the depth chart is nobody's Michael Carter de Marcado. So I guess what I'm what I'm saying is, if I have James Connor my roster, you can look at free agency and say, be excited. Could they add somebody in the draft. Maybe, but they're paying him as if he's gonna be the guy for one more year. So I would be very happy with James Connor as my RB two. And if he let's just say James Connor. You know, he's gonna miss some games, it's kind of what he is. But he's also a piece at the trade deadline if he's giving you fringe RB one top fifteen numbers that you're gonna be able to trade away to a team that says I need a running back down the stretch for the playoffs. So it's just wild to have a running back that's twenty nine that you can look at in your roster and go sweet, let's roll with it again. So I traded for James Connor in Dino Junior League Jason three years ago, and I thought I would have a one year run and it's just kind of kept going. So it's I'm excited about it.
That happens every now and then with certain running backs and in wide receivers. You know, you trade them late in your career and you think you're getting just one thing, and turns out you got to You got a heftier bag than you thought you received. You might be seeing that with Derrick Henry now for the next couple of years. If you traded for him, you know, a year or two ago, you thought, you know, two years ago, it was like, okay, I'm gonna get I know he's an expiring asset, but whatever, and then next thing, you know, four years later, you're like, I have really enjoyed having a lot of fantasy points.
That's how it's same thing with mixing. It's like I could have said last year, like okay, you got one more year relevance. Then he signs a three year extension. You're like, oh sweet, I have some more life with this player. And in Dynasty, we're just grabbing at anybody that can give us running back fantasy points. So let's move on.
Talent or opportunity.
We're gonna talk about some free agency signings and kind of ask the question, this player clearly is talented. We've seen them show out for fantasy, but the opportunity in front of the team, opportunity, the way the team is functioning, that's kind of the bigger question here. So we're gonna move from a couple of big name signings. We're gonna first go with Bets, and then that will kind of segue into one of Jason's that I know will be an interesting one. So, Bets, why don't you start off with the Jaguars and then we'll kind of see how that fits in with the Titans because Calvin Ridley's at the center of this conversation.
Yeah, that's really what it comes down to, is the surprise that Calvin Ridley is not going back to the Jaguars, which everyone just assumed, okay, when the when the new league year started, they would just get the deal.
Done and let's move on.
And then out of nowhere, the Titans come in and give him ninety two million dollars with a ton of guaranteed money, a fat bag of money to be their guy. And there's ripple down effects obviously for the Titans, which I know we'll talk about in a minute, but also for the Jaguars because it kind of felt like they had this plan in place. You get Kavin Ridley back, You've still got Christian Kirk, You've got Evan Ingram. They signed Gabe Davis to maybe be the Z Jones replacement because they could have saved money by moving on from Z Jones. Now I'm not sure they really want to. They might have to hold Z Jones. What it comes down to is they lose I think, and this is a different conversation for fantasy because I don't see him as a wide receiver one ever again in his career. But like for NFL teams, they clearly valued him as maybe this wide receiver one on their team. They lose that, and neither're like, Okay, what do we do. Are we just gonna keep say Jones and roll it that way? Do we take a wide receiver in the NFL draft? Which this is a good class, so you'd be excited about that. But there's a lot of ripple down effect because when you look at the guys they have, like Gabe Davis doesn't really earn targets at a high level, Christian Kirk earns them at a wide receiver two level, and Evan Ingram earns them as well. But they're all like really shallow at type stuff or Evan Ingram. So this team is lacking a piece of their offense. That to me says, what does this mean for Trevor Lawrence because Trevor Lawrence was supposed.
To be What are you talking about?
I know, I know Davis Davis is there to rescue Trevor Lawrence. I don't know what you're saying. They did you miss that they signed Gabriel Davis.
I saw that.
I'm excited for his two weeks a year that he's incredible and the rest of them that he disappears. But I'm kind of worried about just the Trevor Lawrence mismatch in terms of maybe where he's valued in Dynasty and where like the truth is because when he came out, it was the Caleb Williams where it's like, he can't miss. He's going to be incredible. You want this guy's the one oz one and super flex. He's gonna be great.
Now.
Granted he got off to a rough start obviously with the clown show that happened in the Urban Meyer era. Has the Quarterback eight finished the year after, but then this year regressed a little bit right, and it's like Okay, is he ever gonna be a top five guy?
I don't think so.
Top six maybe if he gets lucky on touchdowns one year. But you know, Marvin just put out in the in the Dynasty Past, one of his Dynasty Lifecycle articles which are just incredible looking at quarterbacks, and it's like, these guys don't really hit a ceiling if they're ever going to do it, like they usually don't do it after age like twenty six, twenty seven, twenty eight, somewhere in there. So I know it's early in his career, but like it's kind of now or never for Trevor Lawrence in my opinion for fantasy in terms of where he's valued. So if anyone out there in their league with this move of losing out on Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars, still kind of used Trevor Lawrence as, you know, a bona fide top six Dynasty quarterback, I would love to sell at that price.
Last year, you know, if you were in super flex leagues, he was one of those players like, oh, at the end of the first round, you need to get one of the elite quarterbacks, you know, one of the top seven, and this team's just wildly inefficient, Like they're among the league leaders in like plays and everything else. But then when you look at what they did, what they accomplished, like it was really upsetting, not just like in the passing game, but also in the running game. If ETN didn't get a touchdown, then it was just a terrible week. And then you look at this team's like inefficient player, Gabe Davis. Zay Jones has always kind of been a boomer bust guy. So I worry about this team from like a top down perspective, being able to put up enough just pure touchdowns for us to care and spread it out because the ball is spread out so much. So yeah, I think they need to take a wide receiver. But they've also invested so much money over the last couple years in it that from a team building perspective, it doesn't make sense. So I'm with you. I think Lawrence probably belongs like QB Tennish in Dynasty, where I think people want him to still have that top five outcome. And at this point, if you haven't done it, you know, within three seasons, it's really hard to jump in there again. So Jason, do you feel the same way.
No, I feel one hundred. I think I've felt that way for an entire year. Where Trevor Lawrence is a capable quarterback, he is not a star. I don't see him ever leveling up to be an MVP of the league, a fantasy winner, you know, who's gonna go out there and throw for forty touchdowns one of these seasons. Like I've just never really been super impressed. Obviously, coming out of college, he was great for a collegiate prospect. I don't think he's ever taken that level up that you hoped that he would take. And we've seen enough, we've seen him with the weapons. I don't believe that he will be a superstar ever again. And the player that I always struggle with right now because he still does have draft capital that matters and a career guaranteed, like he'll he'll whether he's good or not, he's gonna play for a long time. He'll get a second contract, he could get he could have you know, is he could lose his legs and then get a second contract, like you know what I mean, Like there's no chance that he's out of the league unless he retires. Whereas Brock Party, I think Rock Purty scores more Fantasy points. And I really struggle when I was setting my Dynasty startup rankings. I'm like, man, who would ever rather have? Because there's much more security in Trevor Lawrence, much more Brock perty still does have a path to have a short career just because he was a seventh ro out pick. I know that's not fairer and it sounds stupid whatever, but when it comes to like, Okay, they both play seventeen games this year, I think Brock, I don't think it's even close. I think Party scores a ton more Fantasy points than Trevor Lawrence. So that's a tough ranking for me. So if you can trade Trevor Lawrence, whose value is clearly much much much higher than it should be, and get another quarterback, a young quarterback draft picks plus, I would be all over that.
You know in the app, you know you hear plus app. I mean, it's just this thing is sweet. I'm looking at the rankings and I'm like, Okay, let's let's just do a little name. You know, which one would you rather have, Trevor Lawrence or to a in Dynasty?
Oh gosh, I give me, give me Lawrence who's gonna run a little bit more?
All right?
Lawrence or Dak Dak?
Yeah, I would rather have Dak, even though Dak's thirty.
Okay, Jordan Love, I assume we're all on Jordan Love over Trevor Lawrence.
Yep, what a world.
That's crazy. Yeah, that's kind of where he lives. Kind of that to a prety ish range.
But like I mean, I would have Trevor Lawrence as my quarterback fourteen. Okay, So let me see if he's being valued as like a top eight guy, then get value for him. Yeah, all right, Well I'll hop in with the next team opportunity because it does segue right there. I want to talk about the Titans, who you you might be old enough to remember. The Titans were not willing to do a four year, one hundred million dollar deal with a j Brown, young budding superstar. That no, they saved eight million dollars and got twenty nine year old Calvin Ridley for four years ninety two million dollars. I talked about this on the main Fantasy Footballers episode that just came out. But if you haven't seen the press conference where Calvin Ridley is introduced to his city his new city and asked why the Titans. It is the grossest answer I've ever seen, talking about how you know, well, they're trying to win, and he didn't want to be there. He wanted to be with the Jaguars, but the money was nice. It's like, oh, my goodness, creatus. So when I look at the team opportunities, when I stat people out for the Ultimate Draft Kit, you know, most of the work we're doing where we are, we don't need to overcomplicate things. The quarterback matters a lot. The quarterback is the top down approach of a team's success. And so you've got a lot of really important names on the Tennessee Titans right now. They signed Calvin Ridley, they signed Tony Pollard, they have DeAndre Hopkins. Tajy Spears was the new hotness Treylon Burks like that. That is a five pack of you know that not every team out there has five you know, perceived valuable fantasy names.
That's not even naming Chig. You know, we don't even have to go.
There, right the goat Chicken coon quote. And so who is the one on this team at the wide receiver position? Is it Calvin Ridley? Who's the new hotness gets the money. Is it DeAndre Hopkins who you know? Last year? A lot of his metrics looked incredible. Twenty eight point eight percent target share that was tied with Pooka for tenth fifty three point eight percent of the team's receiving touchdowns. I was the second highest percentage in the NFL. The dominator rating for Hopkins was forty two percent, number two amongst wide receivers. So is it Hopkins or is it Ridley? Because Hopkins, sorry, Hopkins is a better wide receiver. Like Hopkins is better than Calvin Ridley.
He's better at earning targets.
And so Ridley is. Ridley has been very good in the NFL and in fantasy, but he's really a two. He was a two behind Julio. He might have had the most targets for the Jaguars, but he felt like a two there and now he'll be the two for the Titans. So the quarterback throwing the ball on this team is one where you have what do you believe about will Levis? Does he have a bright future? I mean, you saw that Atlanta game when he first came out. Four touchdowns in that first game made me look silly because I was like, Will Levis can't see pressure. He's not that good bad offensive line. And then I was like, well, okay, maybe he is fully legit. And then he has four passing touched down to the rest of the season and was like, yeah, that was the guy. I think Will Levis does have some talent to him. I like, personally, I like him more than Bryce Young. I don't think Will Levis is a complete and utter bust without a path forward, but I do bet against Will Levis. His ability to see pressure is mount rushmore level. Bat I just it is entertaining to watch, but like the same way that it would be entertaining to go back in time to Rome and go to the coliseum and watch a man kill a man because you're like, oh, just took a bit to the face. It's it's brutal.
When I when I when I was watching college tape of Will Levis, it was like, how does he not see the guy right in front of him?
And I don't know, maybe he's just tough, Maybe he's totally season and he's like, no problem, look how big and strong I am. But but you saw some of this, like forty five percent of his dropbacks, he was under pressure. That was the second highest rate in the NFL. You know, he just he he had a really bad problem, you know, when it came to taking sacks, fourth most sacks, and I think that's not going away. I don't believe that that will be changed. I don't think the Titans offensive line is critically improved. So if you've got a quarterback taking sacks, not able to move the ball enough, and now you're splitting targets with all these fantasy relevant assets, I find myself really being out on the Titans. Now. It's worth noting one of our one of our you know, things we look for in fantasy to find like the diamonds in the rough is ambiguous situations. You know, Oh, we don't know who the wide receiver one is for this team. We don't know how Taj Spears will be involved versus Tony Pollard, so their ADPs will slip and maybe there could be real value here. But personally, the way that I look at this roster is I'm going to bet against the Titans because I'm going to bet against Will Levis.
Yeah, the volatility game to game from Levis, Like you mentioned four touchdowns one game four touchdowns the rest of the season. I think that's going to be in play, which is really fun in one game sample size in DFS, but it's not fun when you're playing and you're hoping for someone being a weekly starter or a QB two in a super flex dynasty league. It'd be different if this team drafted a wide receiver, which we thought they were going to do seventh overall. Instead they use the money on Ridley, an aging player who you know, another one of those players that looks really really good on like Twitter or TikTok. When you get like separation and you know that was the thing last year in training camp. You remember the Jaguars like, we've never seen a player move like this and get separation. Oh yeah, it's It doesn't work when you're playing zone schemes in the NFL because people are just sitting in zones. They're actually letting you get by because you're running to another zone. And Will Levis was historically bad against zone last year. And something that's really weird about him too, which is even more volatile, is that he chucks it deep at an insane rate, at like twenty two percent of his throws against zone coverage went deep. The next closest person in the league was thirteen percent. Russell Wilson, Like he just basically said, like I don't know what to do. I'm gonna chuck it deep and I don't know if this These are the type of players at this stage in their career, Hopkins, Ridley that are gonna get behind defenses in the same way. So if you're bad against zone and you have aging players, it's just a bad combination. And so in Dynasty, you know with Ridley, like he was on our trade away for our list in the Dynasty Pass because we just said we just didn't see it. But I don't know, bets, am I overthinking this because there is an outcome where Levis levels up and and this is good. But I think we're just taking history and taking you know, sacks and all that other stuff and say this way is pretty heavily.
Yeah, real real quick on that note. On the positive side, the positive side is you know, you you saw some things like the fact that you know he was fifty first and pass success rate with thirty seven point one percent that was the same as rookie year Josh Allen, and he's got the arm talent, and Josh Allen needed to get Stefan Diggs and now you get Calvin Ridley and Hopkins. If Will Levis levels up to be really good, there is a positive outcome.
Yeah, that's that's you, Mary that I convince you. No, I'm a firm believer. And we get in trouble with this stuff because when you see it happen once, you just think, oh, that's gonna happen again. When you when we talk about the rookie quarterbacks this year and redrafts, like well Ceeed Straudis did it, it's like, yeah, there's a there's a path. Trying to spot the outliers is going to get you in trouble a lot. And history has shown quarterbacks that take sacks. It's a sticky metric. Quarterbacks at Stroggan's zone. It's pretty sticky. So I'm a firm believer. And once the players show you who they are. I'm not saying that they need to be, you know, incredible in the first year, but they need to show you signs. I didn't really see it with Levis, and I'm a firm believer that it's probably not gonna work out. And I could see this signing in a year a year and a half. Were looks back and we're like, can you imagine the Titans giving Calvin Redley four years ninety two million dollars. I think it's terrible signing at this point in his career. Like you said, you're sitting right there. Take neighbors, take adun' day, whatever one you want. Just reset the market. Pay someone cheaper. I don't think he has it at this point in his career. Calvin Ridley to be a one. I think Hopkins is the one there. And so I'm with you and just trying to say I'm lower on the Titans, trying to trade away really on this contract if someone's hyped about it, if I can in my leagues, but I've tried, and there's not a huge market in leagues I plan for Kalvin Redley currently.
I will say this team is much more marketable and much more fun than it was, you know last year, where it was he tried to play hero ball, he got hurt. This is a different team, different coaching staff. The offense is gonna look different, and the offensive line is gonna need a major overhaul because it's been really, really bad. But yeah, I'm worried about the times. I mean, right now, I picked them forth in the division. I'm assuming most of us would.
Yeah, yeah, that makes sense.
Okay, we're gonna take a quick break before we go into some Falcons talk. I just need you guys to calm me down. I am hot and heavy, guys, but I need you to talk me down because I'm trying to approach this as somebody who does this for my job, not someone who's in Atlanta Falcons lifer. Is that okay? You can call me out.
Yeah, yeah, yeah we will. We will call you out if you're being stupid.
Okay, I know you feel that way when I love doing that.
I love that. Thank you. This is going to be great.
Yes, thank you. So you know, we've talked a lot about the free agency signings. We talked about Kirk Cousins, but I want to talk about this from a offensive approach and how this could work and how this could affect the pieces beyond just this year in dynasty, because like, we need to call this team a different team, because the Atlanta Falcons the last three years were a different entity. They were playing a different game than anybody else in the league. Okay, So Atlanta lined up in eleven personnel, so three wide receivers are more on first downs just fourteen percent of the time. Like that was the lowest in the NFL, and it's one of the lowest marks the last six years. Nobody else was running an offense like the Falcons last year. To give you a good number, Drake London ran sixty routes last year where there were more than two wide receivers on the field. Sixty routes. That's like, criminally, hilariously low. So when we look at the Falcons and we look at all their tricks and everything else you compare, you just throw everything out the window because they were running the ball on first downs fifty eight percent of the times.
Team, No, they weren't. Did they really run it fifty eight percent on first down?
Yes, that was a rush rate on first down.
Maybe you're gonna get them.
Oh man, guys, I mean there was two wide receivers out in the field eighty five percent of the time. So just everybody knew this is what they're gonna do, this is the formation.
And while John Smith on the field, brother.
I guess because it's it's a it's frustrating because the Falcons had certain success, and the worst part about being a Falcons fan is they were actually in a lot of games. I don't know if people realize this. They were just always just close enough to kind of like make sure that they were to let you down. Oh that's that's that's.
The amount of like it from Kyle on Sunday afternoons that was like, why why do I do this to myself? It was just on repeat every week.
I would I would train my kids and say, you see that we're winning right now, do not like, don't hold onto that at all. Expect that you're gonna go let it down. So all we need to realize is that they were running a crazy amount. I mean, guys, they averaged thirty five passing yards per game in sets with more than three wide or three or more wide receivers thirty five. The next closest was one hundred and seventeen. Nobody was running this Hobbins in the league. It was JV. So the reason why Kirk Cousins makes a lot of sense is because he's been really good against zone coverage his whole career. He and this system they're getting is a ram system, right and Zach Robinson. It is somebody that approaches things very much. And Sean McVay has led the league in this for years and years and years and three wide receiver sets, so we have to look at this team and their small sample size and say what do they do in three wide receiver sets? And Drake London's been really really good in it, and Jean Robinson has been really awesome when he did run in it five point eight yards per carry when three wide receivers were on the field. So let's take all of that numbers about the Falcons and then just focusing on dynasty Bijeon Robinson. With Kirk Cousins signing, did that affect you at all? Between the Bijon and Briese's debate.
So it's funny because I think that the whole, the whole offense changing, having Kirk Cousins come everything is good for Beijon here. But I also think that the off season has been so good for brie the problems with their offensive line have. I mean, they went hard after offensive line this offseason. That doesn't always guarantee change, but I can guarantee it's not going to change if you don't go hard after it. So I mean I was already Bejon over Bree by a slight hair, but I think they've both just risen for me.
Yeah, they're both locked in. You can have it whatever order you want. I think I side with Bijon just you know, one last year into the contract. Not that it really matters a ton, but just if you if you're making me, you know, flip a coin. I think for that reason I would lean Beijon.
Yeah, two point one years old. I think I leaned there and we talked about this. This is this is a comment we made over and over again with Bijeon. Having a really high floor for four to five years is rare in Dynasty. I think people are like, oh, you know, he's only RB nine, Like if you got like four or five top ten RB seasons, like you would be really excited for where you got him. You're just didn't get a top you know, top three outcome, like you thought you were gonna get a redraft. But uh, the floor is really really high. He Kirk does check it down a lot too, so you're you're not just gonna like the targets aren't just gonna go away. Let's focus on London because I hate hate hate that his redraft ADP went up in the last two or three weeks. Andy mintioned on the show, and after the show I messaged him angrily, just said, why did you have to mention that man's name? And then kirk Cousins gets traded or signs with the team. Jason, you boosted him up pretty high to now being a wide receiver one in Dynasty startup rankings. He's not even twenty three, So kind of back that up because I'm with you, But I feel like I can't speak on Falcons things.
Yeah, you can't because you are biased. I don't give two parts about the Falcons, so I can speak. I can speak to it. Look, you can't just say Kirk Cousins made Justin Jefferson right, because Justin Jefferson is maybe the best wide receiver in the league, if not, he's one of the three up there for debate, and he was great when Kirk Cousins went down when when he was healthy on the field. The but on the on the other side of that coin is we know that if a wide receiver is very talented, if he is a top five wide receiver, that Kirk Cousins can support massive fantasy production. He will go to that star over and over and over and over and over the way you want in fantasy football. We've seen this for years with Matthew Stafford when he had Johnson or if he had Cooper Cup and then he finds Pooka. It's like, I'm just gonna keep doing the play that works and for fantasy purposes, that's great. Drake London film wise has looked out standing. A lot of the metrics of like percentage based stuff has been outstanding. It's just total volume wasn't there because of the offense that you just described. Uh, if you believe that Drake London is a great wide receiver, then you should also believe that he will be a great fantasy asset because with this offense, the RAMS scheme coming in and a quarterback that we know will exploit an advantage over and over and over and over, then he should have monstrous target numbers at the end of the year, monstrous yardage, good touchdowns, and just be a He should be a top ten fantasy wide receiver this year.
Yeah, there's there's about four or five things you can connect of saying Cousins is good against you know, zone coverage, Cousins is good with three wide receivers on the field. The Rams were good. This is the Rams scheme. You know, London he has a two point four to seven yards per out run when three wide receivers are on the field. Like, all of that should connect together. And yet I know how fantasy football works sometimes and there's all these other scenarios that you have to throw in. But everything is pointing to Drake London blowing up. Hopefully there is a window where you got to trade for him. But yeah, he's he should be a wide receiver one in dynasty leagues. I want to move on to Pitts because we still don't know about his fifth year option. That's a conversation that's coming up. He's only twenty three and a half, and I feel like we should be in, like fantasy people should be in based on where the price is. But you know, so, Betts, what do.
You think based off how you said that? I think that's that's how everyone feels like you say it, but you kind of like tail off at the end with a question mark.
I think I may him Cole Pits again.
You know, it's he's really in sing case because in year one he kind of checked the box right A thousand yards with Matt Ryan, just didn't have the touchdowns. It's like, this guy can clearly play.
He's good.
He's super young, still one of the youngest tight ends in the league, even though he's been in the league for a couple of years now. And then you had just a couple of seasons where it was okay, not great, but last year really was I think a year that you need to have a lot of context around. Obviously, Arthur Smith thing is a disaster for everyone, but he had a knee injury that was more than just the NCL surgery that did linger well into the season. So I do think that the talent is still there. I still think that, you know, he's the guy that we saw coming out of Florida, the guy that we saw as a rookie with a thousand yards and you look at the other guys in the depth chart. Drake Lennon is going to be the alpha, no questions about it. But Rondell Moore, we know what he is, like, a gadget guy that might get you two targets a game whatever. Darnell Mooney, I think is a good wide receiver. I think he's better for the NFL, but he's not a target earner at a high level. So if Pitts is the second read in this offense, Kirk Cousins has shown us he can support that. So I'm in on Kyle Pitts again. I am ready to get hurt. What could absolutely go wrong?
Tight End six is where we have him in our rankings. Jason, is he someone that you're like trying to actually acquire right now or because there's buzz it's like, okay, well now the price has gone up because it was criminally low this offseason.
I'm not actively trying to acquire him because well, I'm not actively trying to acquire him because I am a coward. And once you say fool me, you know four times, this is like a hold on to him. I will say that there are certain situations I chose to put him above Travis Kelcey, for instance, in my Dynasty startup rankings. Kelsey is an interesting conversation on his own, like Andy still has Kelsey as his tight end three in Dynasty. I think a lot of people view he says for tight end and I think this is appropriate for you know, Dynasty. We take too long of you. Sometimes, he says he plays the tight end position in Dynasty one year at a time. It's basically startup rankings, because that's that's all that matters for success is can this guy score Fantasy points this year? Don't worry about the long term value of tight ends. But my point in saying all that is, if I had Kelsey, I would go poke I just I would be willing. Personally, I'd go make the offer just one for one and say, hey, maybe all reset, maybe all reset from the you know, the thirty four year old to the twenty three year old getting eleven years. But obviously it's a risk. I'm not trying to go acquire him. I am willing to if it is a fair deal, and I don't think you're getting fair deals right now.
Yeah that makes sense. All right, Bets, Why don't you move on and go over to Green Bay and talk to us about the running backs?
Yeah?
Weird, I think fallout because there was rumblings like this team's probably not bringing aj Dillon back. They've got, you know, Aaron Jones, who was still pretty efficient down the stretch last year, especially in the playoffs. Maybe they just run it back for one more year and then kind of figure it out next year, and then out of nowhere, Josh Shacops signs a four year deal worth forty eight million dollars. But did he really because he did not. And that's the triggy thing with this situation is that that's what was reported. The actual deal is basically one year, fourteen point eight million, and then there's three option years for the Packers. So if it goes well, I expect him to be there. If it doesn't go well, I don't expect him to be there next year. And what's really interesting about that situation is right now there's a ton of hype on Josh Shacops because of the landing spot. It's a good offense. We've seen running backs in this offense do very well over the years, and I get it. He's a workhorse who can touch the ball a ton, but he was terrible last year, like straight up one of the worst running backs in football. When you look at the numbers, fifty six hearts per carry, sixtieth in yards after contact per attempt, fifty fourth and explosive rush rate and fifty first and misstackles forced per attempt, And what's wild to me is those numbers are almost identical to aj Dillon of last year. So and they brought a Dylan back. So you need Josh Jacobs to have not just the volume, but also I think be way more efficient. And if he is an efficient, I do think that they'll still give him opportunity. So I think for like a redraft, it's kind of a different conversation. But I think right now everyone's like, oh, four years with the Packers with Jordan love Josh Jacobs to the moon.
He's so good.
What if he's just terrible again and they move on and now you're stuck again wondering where are we with Josh Jacobs.
So I think for me, we love this call.
I love it so much.
Firmly on you need to trade Josh Jacobs right now before things potentially go south.
I think you can get a lot for him.
I get the exact opposite side.
All right, let's have let's have the debate.
Okay, tell us why so one? Who is throwing that?
Wait? Sorry, tell us why you're so stupid?
Okay, I can do that. Definitely, who was throwing the rock for this? For this Raiders team? Because it really was an offense one that was stunted, you know, right, Like the first part of the year was Josh McDaniels. Then they said we hate you, and so then they moved on. Then it was Ad and O'Connell for pretty much, you know, from week I think it was week ten on And you're getting an offense where one he's not throwing the ball a ton, and he was terrible against zone coverage. So a lot of the looks were bad. I mean, I know, Jacob's basically took off what the last four or five weeks.
Like I'm not I'll be back decision.
So it's just I can look at his efficiency metrics and say, in the offense he was in, it was really, really, really bad for him. And yet I can look at this Packers' offense and say, okay, we love the efficiency. Last year, we saw what Aaron Jones did down the stretch at you know, twenty nine year old running back just catch fire in the playoffs, they really went far. So I think he fits this offense. He's still at the age where I can't acquire him. And I'm just saying that because I just traded for him last week and I feel totally fine, but my price was not that high.
Trade him before the signing.
No, I traded. I traded for him after the signing.
Okay, what did you trade? Tell us the trade deats.
It's a complicated deal because we just you're in this league, Jason.
All right, I didn't pay. I was in New York. Okay.
We got a first Josh Jacobs and Kirk Cousins for Jerry Judy a second round pick, and we swapped first.
Okay, that's fine. I told you.
I told you.
Okay, that's that's fine. I now realize who you traded with.
That's what that was good.
Okay, Well, if your league has.
Can you can you say that Josh Jacobs has two years of fantasy relevance top fifteen ish.
I'm not saying he's not gonna be relevant, but fifteen.
Could he be a top twarter back the next two years?
Sure, but that's RB fifteen. You need that RB thirteen to the RB eighteen doesn't matter. Those guys are not giving you massive upside that the Bijons can, the Breeze can, and right now, the buzz on Josh shakeups says this is going to work out, no questions asked. He's a rock solid RB one asset for dynasty, and I do not see it because the contract is misleading. So I'm just saying there is a path doesn't work, and if you want to strike while the iron's hot, I think it's a very savvy move.
Okay, well, if he's bad this year, if he's bad, let's just play that out. This is the two options. Right, he's great, and then obviously you've got a good asset. But I don't think that. I don't think the world exists where he's really bad this year, but you get multiple years of fantasy production, you could be at the end here. It is possible range of outcomes in a likely fashion that if he's still very inefficient and ineffective as he was last season, that then basically his career's over because of the way the contract structure.
Okay, so what could you actually get for him? We'll take my trade aside. But like one, is he worth the one oh six?
Are you saying what I trade that for him?
Yeah?
I think so, Yeah, I mean non super flex, I think you might be able to get a one oh six. I would certainly rather have the one oh six.
Okay, I think that's where he's appropriately valued. We didn't have to pay that, But I think I just I run up against it with Dynasty running backstroms, Like there's not many dudes you can acquire in general, Like it's really hard to be able, Like you're not gonna give Breese, You're not gonna get bije On if I have him, It's really hard to get Jamiir Gibbs. So when you get this second tier player that you can find a window, then I just want to acquire these players. But maybe that's just my rosters, like the James Conners of the world have saved me over the years.
Uh So, And I also say one last quick thing, Kyle want to show do you have the nasty boy drop?
Can you?
Can you smash that? If you do? Thank you?
Not technically under contract, but I just want to point out Emmanuel Wilson is a name to pick up on your Dynasty waiver wire. The resigned agent Dillon to like a one year deal worth two million dollars. He was absolutely horrific last year, and we just talked about what if it doesn't work for Josh Jacobs. Manuel Wilson made the roster last year as a UDFA, and Matthew Berry wrote about him in his interesting things he heard at the combine. The team really likes him, so I would not be surprised he makes the roster. And he's a guy who carves out the RB two role in a good offense. So pick up Manuel Wilson if he's on your waiver wire.
Yeah, and he won't show up as under contract, but because he's exclusive rights, he's going to be a packer of this next year. Let's take a quick break. We'll be right back.
You mentioned before the break the exclusive rights. Have we ever talked about how absurd that genre of free agent is?
You must play for this team.
It's it's prison. It's they're in prison. Why do we call them a free agent? It's basically all right, you can negotiate a contract with us, or you can't play. If a Paul you can like like, you can't. You can negotiate a contract with only US, or you're not allowed to play. It's like that is how did how did that ever come about? How did the NFL be like? Oh, guys, guys coming here, I got a good one for these undrafted free agents. Check check out what we're gonna be able to do.
Oh man, it is wild with the undrafted free agents because if you do hit, like, if you do, you're able to negotiate contracts at a different level if you're not exclusive rights, and then eventually you can be the Austin Eckler's or the Philip Lindsay's of the world. But it's so rare. But yeah, no, he's he's a he's gonna be a packer.
Uh.
Speaking of packer world, let's move to the Bears, Jason, because a lot of things have happened. They got a really good wide receiver who's about to be thirty two on the team now. But the the whole egoism is team is now clearly Caleb Williams.
Uh huh. Caleb Williams is going to clearly be the pick, as we've known for quite a while. And you know he's he's minus twenty three hundred right now is the line to go to number one? That is ninety six percent implied odds, which feels like you should bet that because it's because it's not at one hundred percent odds, which is the chance he is the pick. Please don't bet minus twenty three hundred things. But these are called these are called jokes, all right, So here's a really really cool situation that a one oh one gets to go to there. There have not been many times in the history of the NFL. In fact, I believe there has never been a time in the history of the NFL that a one oh one quarterback will go to as winning a franchise in the next year. Because this isn't their pick. This is the Carolina Panthers, the pan There's deserve Caleb Williams, but the Panthers gave it to the Bears. The Bears are not a bad team. They were winning games down the stretch even with Justin Fields. I think four of the last six games he started they won. Now they have added Keenan Allen, a wide receiver superstar. Yeah, he's in the last year of his deal. Yes he's older, but if you're telling me that, you don't think he's going to be the best asset ever for an incoming rookie. I mean, Justin Herbert had a really good rookie season, and he also had a really good wide receiver who's always going to be exactly where you know he's supposed to be, and he's going to catch the ball if you put it on him. That is unbelievable to come in to DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kamet, you add DeAndre Swift, an upgrade I think, to this running back room, and then you have Kleb Williams come in. So in redraft, this is a Dynasty show. In redraft, I will probably be betting against most of these bears assets, betting against DJ Moore, betting against Keenan Allen, because even though I think Kyleb Williams is good and will be a very, very valuable sensational player down the line, that that's how I have him pegged. I am in on Caleb Williams, not that that's like, you know, I'm not alone. I would say almost everybody's in on Caleb Williams. But the belief is that he will hit. There weren't enough red flags in the tape and the production and anything to have me really want to bet against it. And when you come into a situation like this, it's your setup for success. So from a Dynasty perspective, DJ Moore I think is going to be He's only twenty six years old, almost twenty set. He'll play twenty seven, but that means twenty eight twenty nine years old, the next couple of years playing with a year two year three. Caleb Williams, who, once you have found success in the NFL, your trajectory stays hot. At the quarterback position. You don't usually have guys, you know, look like they're getting it together and then and then completely fall away. It's happened before, but it's it's not the norm, and so I'm betting on the Bears future. I want to. I think that this situation as a you know, we're looking at like, what's the team opportunity here? The team opportunity is to be one of the best offenses in the league. But now I don't I don't think that happens this year with a rookie. I think that they're middle of the pack. But I do believe that this is going to be a a real, really non Bears offense, Like this should be the best Bears offense maybe of their history, you know, even their their air quotes, great quarterbacks of their franchise history have not really been prolific offensive you know, scoring machines, and so this they're stacked right now. I think that they've got they've got a future that is set up for success in a way that has not really happened before. You know, you see Patrick Mahomes go to a good Kansas City Chiefs team because he wasn't the one on one so often the one on one busts simply not not just because of their talent, but because they were going to the worst team in the National Football League. They had a lack of weapons, they didn't have an offensive line that could protect them. You know, there are plenty of examples of quarterbacks who came in and I believe that they went to a different team, could have been a franchise, you know player, but like David Carr, just kept getting murdered behind the offensive line and forgot how to have confidence to play quarterback. That's Caleb Well, He's coming into the best situation imaginable for a one on one. So I'm I'm in on the belief I want to bet for dynasty purposes on the long term value of the Bears offense.
I totally agree. And I think in our quarterback evaluations when we did that really a month or so ago, you know, we talked about the volatility of Caleb Williams escaping the pocket, what he's good, what he's you know, not good at but there's a lot of questions that kind of get dismissed when you start to think of, Okay, who is part of this team rather than he's throwing to the Jonathan Mingos, you know, Adam Thielen's of the world. You know, the team that Bryce Young inherited was nobody is getting open. You're really bad against zone coverage, guys. I this is really sad. Do you guys know how many touchdowns Bryce Young threw against zone coverage last year? I'll let you guess.
I'm gonna say four.
I will see zero.
The answer zero, Oh my goodness, none, none, because one all of them were within the twenty yard line and in but it it's just like he wasn't set up, and he wasn't set up with the weapons, and then wasn't set up for twenty twenty three NFL, which is mostly his own. So I think there's just so many things to like here. They're also probably gonna let him pass more.
You know.
Shane Waldron's kind of been one of those coordinators that said you can throw it more with you know, with twenty twenty one RUSS team, and then Gino Smith the last two years they were bottom ten in rush attempts, and so I think this team is set up in a really good way. It's sad for Keenan, but I'm also happy for Keenan because it's just kind of been, you know, it's kind of been riding on the wall that he's at that point in his career. But any thoughts on Kayleb Williams and the Bears as a whole.
No, I think you guys laid it up pretty well. This is the perfect situation to take a rookie quarterback, reset with the rookie deal, drop him into this roster, and let him go. And you know, I think the move that they made to bring Keenan Allen tells.
You a lot.
There's also still like NFL mock drafts that still say, look, even though they got Keenan Allen, they could still take Romadunze at nine if he falls there, still like, you could add another weapon to this offense if they don't think kanun is there beyond you know, this season.
Yeah, I think it makes complete sense to take another wide receiver there. You don't have a third great option at wide receiver behind Keenan Allen and Keenan Allen is probably a rookie year rental to help get Caleb Williams going. He's in the last year of his deal right now, and I don't I mean, not that he couldn't resign for the Bears, but he'll be an unrestricted free agent at the end.
Of the year.
He only needs ninety six receptions to get to a thousand for his career, not that I'm counting, but uh yeah, it's it's just it's a great situation now. I just I want to fall up with this question because we did a super flex mock draft recently where we talked about, hey, depending on your team need, if you want to take Kayleb Williams one on one, if you want to take Marvin Heerson in a one quarterback league, how early should Caleb Williams go.
Startup?
No, no, sorry, in a rookie draft. In one quarterback rookie draft, how early are you taking Kleb Williams.
That's all I think. Once are first.
I think once you get past like the Brian Thomas range, fair game for me.
I'm looking at drafts right now and it's like, Okay, one oh five, one oh six, one oh seven, is kind of the range.
He's my one o six right now, behind Brian Thomas, de Troy Franklin. That will completely that could be obliterated with the NFL draft, you know if depending on landing spots for guys like Brian Thomas, Detroy Franklin and or other guys that could possibly leapfrog, Caleb Williams will be anywhere from the one oh four for for my purposes down to like the one oh seven. So he's in that range. He's middle of the first round in non superflex.
All Right, I'm gonna finish this off talking about the Chargers real quickly, and really also want to talk about how Greg Roman is burning this team to the ground.
Fantasy. He's burning this fantasy team to the ground. I don't think he's gonna burn this team to the grind.
Okay, So I worked through my emotions because my quick reaction with Keenan Allen got traded my favorite player in the league was I hate Greg Roman. That was my first thing, and I said, I think I hate Greg Rohoman more than I love Keenan Allen right now, but Greg Roman's teams have been known for running the ball, not a ton of pass tempts. But they've worked in the NFL going back to twenty eleven with forty nine ers, those teams averaged ten point two wins per year. He only had one team where it was sub five hundred. And you know there's some good teams, some Super Bowl runs.
Now it was back when we played sixteen games.
I'm telling you, like it worked in the NFL. What didn't work for the Chargers last year was running the ball. They were basically the worst team in the league, thirty second in EPA per rush, and they were really bad on what Greg Roman's really good at, which is kind of the man gap concept where you're bringing the guard over. That's his bread and butter. That's his loaf of bread, Big Greg. That's what he likes. A physical runner. He got it in Gus Edwards. So it can work in the NFL. And it can work if you basically take every wide receiver and say, let's go for Will Disley and Hayden Hurst and block the crap out of this thing. But we have to obviously adjust for Justin Herberts. That's the conversation that I want to have and just like, how much do we adjust him? How much do we adjust his pass attempts. I know, Jason, when you're gonna stat out this year, we're gonna be like, oh man, this is a different Chargers team I have to work with then before. And I feel like the theme of this show has been these are rebranded teams. These are like teams that had a meeting for their business that we got to change our logo. We got to che this is not the finesse Chargers of Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen and those all those years of throwing the ball.
Like, it's not the eighty five Bears, where this is gonna be the Caleb Williams High Flying Show. Yeah. I mean, there's a rebrand for for the Chargers. It's so funny when when Harball came in, we talked about Harbaugh's history of like he is a run the ball defense guy. He's done that everywhere, but we pointed out what his rosters were. You know, he had he had Colin Kaepernick and Alex you know, but then he had Frank Gored. He had these great running backs. So it's like, yeah, he plays to his personnel, and the personnel of this team is Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Justin Herbert and and it's like, no, it's not. It's like, I think he's gonna play to it. He's going to play his personnel to his style so that he could play his personnel. Yeah.
I think the writing's on the wall.
You just look at their moves, right, I mean, release Mike Williams, get rid of Keenan Allen, signed two blocking tight ends higher Greg Roman. They're telling us bringing Gus Edwards. They're telling us all we need to know. We know the structure, both of.
The defensive guys, that there were four players here on this team, on this roster, was like, we got to do something about the money. We cannot afford these two superstars on defense and two superstars on offense. So maybe we'll restructure. So maybe, well, no, they extended the defensive guys and kicked the offensive guys off the roster.
Oh gosh, I do think so. Whoever, so it's Gus bust for the short term. I'm interested to see the rookie, I know, but everybody wants to say Blake Koram. I think Jalen Wright is an interesting, sneaky name that I want to throw out there. Would be a really good combination. He actually did have a lot of the same you know gap concepts that they're good at. I mean the big dudes, the Ray Davis.
That's a neat fit. That's a neat fit. I like that fit with Yea, with Jill Run.
And he's a different player than Gus Edwards, who's a no nonsense, I'm gonna follow blocks. I'm not trying to do much, So I think.
You'd be interesting.
Yeah, there's so many there's so many combinations other than Blake Kream, which you know is very much on the nose that would happen. But I know the NFL works. It doesn't happen. Like whenever, whatever combination we make before, those things never happen. So I will be betting against Blake Korum being a charger. Let me say this about Herbert twenty six years old. In our Dynasty startup ranks, we have n't at which last year was like dud justin Herbert, you take him in the first round of a super flex startup. We have him at twentieth overall. Right now in Superflex, No, it's Superflex. It's because of Mike two.
Mike, So we need to just talk about that real quick, so that if people are looking at that, Mike really does have a.
Genuine which I appreciate.
Yeah, I love it. I love it. Is that there is absolutely nothing wrong with his approach. It is not consensus. It's not the usual agreed to jimslemen aggrievement of how we play superflex. Uh. But what he he he doesn't value the quarterbacks as high in superflex as most average superflex leagues do. This has been a good thing for him from time to time because I do think that the majority consensus overvalues quarterbacks in Superflex, not that they're not valuable, but they just overdo it. They overdo it with the mediocre, the medium that you know, once you're past those top four or five six guys, you know that next tier is usually seen as still like just keep drafting them. At the very beginning of the first round, I'm Mike excited, Lawrence. I would rather take you know, and aj Brown, a young, great wide receiver who I know is gonna be good for a long time, then these middling quarterbacks who might have a down year and you know, so there is legitimacy to it. But when you hear that he's twenty overall. That's yeah, that's Mike.
Yeah. I think, well, one, you can win with so many different strategies, and I do think that when we look at Herbert, he's averaged twenty six completions per game in his career. Like he's kind of been a volume guy. He was awesome if you remember the first six weeks of the year, he was a quarterback one all right, twenty three points per game. But he's averaged twenty six completions per game. And I started looking up, man, how often has Greg Roman done this? In ten years as an offensive quarter one hundred and sixty two games. His quarterbacks hit that just nine point eight percent of his time, justin Herbert's average of twenty six completions. So he's gonna have to win on efficiency. And it's really hard to look at this offense and go, where is the passing efficiency right now?
Now?
If they draft them leak neighbors, you're excited, you know, at five overall. But we've talked a lot about Quentin Johnson, who talked a lot about like, hey, you can just stare at him on your bench if that is the kind of pain that you enjoy. But to expect a leap forward is really hard basically the historical evidence of what he's done so far, but it's it's hard to find a rookie quarterback or rookie a young quarterback in his prime just completely stripped of his weapons. I went through as many comps. Randy Moss when he left the Vikings is really the only one where Dante Culpepper was the quarterback won the season before and then he was gone after that. Just like nothing for fantasy, but like it just doesn't happen. You don't see teams paying their quarterback and then saying we're not going to give him weapons. So I don't know how do we adjust bets in Dynasty.
Yeah, I think you have to be realistic. You know, when you were taking justin Herbert last Yer, if you had him, you could see weekly top three finishes in the range of outcomes. You could see a top five finish on the season if things went right. I think that's gone, just straight up gone, because you just won't have enough volume. And it's not just the volume concern, but Quentin Johnson is on paper the wide receiver one and that is a massive, massive red flag for this offense. So I mean from that standpoint, you need to take this opportunity. You have a small window where it's like, hey, they don't have Micha Williams and don't have Keenan Allen. Try like heck to trade awake Gwenton Johnson right now. But for Justin Herbert, I'm worried.
Man.
I think when it all comes, you know, down to what you guys do, have the stat rankings in the UdK and stuff like.
I think you could be like the quarterback fourteen.
Fifteen, and it's like, okay, you know, but I don't see him really helping you this year.
I mean two years ago, played the entire season was pretty good. He was the quarterback eleven, you know, he was he was not that was quarterback one. But he's not winning people championships, you know. And he was sixteen point four Fantasy points per game. So this is like you take a few touchdowns away, you take a bunch of passing attempts away, you take some weapons away. Yeah, he's probably outside the top twelve this season.
Yeah, I mean that season, you're talking about six hundred and ninety nine pass attempts. I think that's like in the top five of all time. And it was an inefficient season, so to expect him to get I don't know his pass attempts in the low five hundreds.
I do think four wide receivers on the roster as of now.
Yeah, Palmer to the moon wide receivers.
Palmer is gonna be probably pretty good. I will say this. It's hard to project this going into year five, but based on the coaching history and the weapons on the field, I do think you're going to have Justin Herbert run the ball a significant amount. More like he's never really gotten over three hundred yards. I think he get I think he eclipses four hundred rushing yards this year.
I can see that. And we saw a bounce back last year with three rushing touchdowns after zero the year before. But it's just before it was a no brainer. You take me in the first round of a super flex startup, and this guy's gonna be awesome for forever. And now you're looking like I did not see this scenario coming where I look at this guy and say, not only do I not get the volume, but I don't have anybody any weapons right now. But that could change, you know, Molik Neighbors whoever. A month from now. But yeah, I'm calm down from Greg Roman, and I'm just pointing my anger at just Jim Harbaugh now because he let this happen too.
I can't wait for the Cardinals too sadly trade out of the number four sp bypass Marvin Harrison Junior and have Marvin Harrison Junior drop into the lap of Justin Herbert and the Chargers and watch that team who has no wide receivers on the roster grab a defensive player. I just can't wait. I can't wait for them to be like, nah, dude, we don't we don't do passing here.
How good are you at blocking Marvin?
That's all.
All right, that's gonna do it for this episode. If you want more, you go to UdK plus dot com. You get in on all of our dynasty rankings, startup rankings UdK plus dot com, and we'll talk to you again next week. Goodbye.
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