The price for the 1.01 and more on today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast! Borg, Betz and Mike review the 2024 rookie WRs discussing their fantasy performances, give historical context, and give their outlook in dynasty. They open up the show discussing how much the 1.01 pick in dynasty rookie drafts will cost you. Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for January 15th, 2025.
Connect with The Fantasy Footballers:
Love the show? Leave us a review wherever you listen
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a Baller.
Welcome back. It's Wednesday, January seventeenth here on the Dynasty Podcast.
I'm your host Gwergnoni. What we're still working on that January? What is your bets? What did you hear? I heard?
Jenye, We're in, Jenny, Jenny.
I don't know if it was like a lag on the internet or what, but it's January, folks, we come in to the always well prepared Face Footballers Dynasty Podcast.
Wait, Kyle, you're what day did you say it was? Kyle? You know one of the.
Things that I when you met off the top, I'm bad at this. I'm bad at introing the podcast and even worse my part that I hate the most. I hate outroing the podcast. I don't like those parts. I get that past football. Like you go to you know, sometimes preschool for sure, kindergarten, and they're like eight kids, it's January, and then you look at what day it is and you're like, it's that day now. Now Josh is saying you said the seventeenth, I might have seventeenth. Oh yeah, it's definitely wrong. In the dock here too.
Oh totally goodness, gracious as a great start. Okay, well, perfect.
There's elementary things that apparently when I was show doc prepping, I didn't even do that part. I might have gone really really deep in some stats that didn't matter, but I made sure to get this part wrong on this podcast. Anyway, we are glad you're with us in twenty twenty five getting to talk dynasty with us. Last week, Bets and I got to talk quarterbacks and running backs, got to review the rookies. This week, we're just gonna talk wide receivers and maybe just maybe an entire hour on Brian Thomas Junior. Would you guys be okay with that?
Maybe? Maybe? I mean he is he is the hotness. If you listened to the Footy Awards on the Flagship Fantasy Footballers podcast, Brian Thomas Junior was beloved and it's gonna be interesting to talk about him in like, really remember the season as a whole and not just you know, the playoff weeks. Yeah.
I posted a thread of all of his receptions of the year, and it was mostly for myself to bookmark later on and go, I need to remember this, dude, or else over the offseason. My brain is gonna turn the mush and I'm just gonna go, yeah, he was good, but come on, I mean, like it Jacksonville. You know they had Mac Jones for a while, Like, wasn't really that good. And I'm just gonna say the film was was pretty good. So we'll review him, talk about some of the other rookies. I know, some of the big question marks people have moving forward about Roma Doonday, Marvin Harrison, and then we're gonna go down in the depths.
Boys.
We might even bring up Jalen Polk.
Oh for you mean Jonathan Ingo in a dude, Jalen Polk so disappointing. Well, it might come on so disappointed.
It's hard to got on the field, dude, you got some superstars there. You know, I can't blame the guy. Imagine trying to get on the field. Remember Kashan Boody. Okay, it's hard to do. It's hard to do.
Yeah, I.
Wonder if he's gonna be a Mike Rabel guy like he Brabel comes in and it's just like Polk's my dude, this guy got to get him on the field. I mean, he only had eighty seven total receiving yards in the season, so we got to up that number.
There was a quote from Rabel. I guess it was like during one of the radio hits he did yesterday or something, talking about, you know, winning teams don't need to throw the ball forty five or fifty times a game. So if Polk is willing to block, you know, we know Rabel like throwing the ball yet ye had those years with Derek Henry and Tennessee. If he's willing to block, then maybe he'll be a Rabel guy. Otherwise, yikes.
Yeah, you shouldn't have to throw the ball fifty times. I agree, because you should have a passing attack that can get it done in thirty five passes. Like, if you're throwing fifty, that means you're trailing, but if you're throwing thirty five, you're winning.
Yeah, Rabel knows ball man, he understands. He's one of the few shining examples of defensive head coaches that actually, you know, showed out for a long time. It's a bad bad list if you go down. But this year is actually last couple of years. Dimiico Ryans has been awesome. Dan Quinn punched me in the face and said, hey, hey, did I know what I'm doing? So maybe the data is changing a little bit for us. I did want to mention that on Super Bowl Sunday, we'll be launching our Dynasty Pass for twenty twenty five. I put out a little but a little NFL Draft prospect primer just to make sure I tease the people. If you're one of those people's like I don't know all the names, here's the place to start. But we go fully into every single prospect, talk about their production profiles. We're gathering a lot of that stuff now and starting the scouting process. But that comes out super Bowl Sunday. That's when we'll be launched fully with the team opportunities. And also we do some mock drafts for those people that need Dynasty information that they're drafted in February and they need it for themselves. So get excited about that, Mike, I know behind the scenes, that's something our team's gonna be working on over the next month.
Absolutely, the uh just trying to recover here a little bit from the the main season, get the brain right, get it back on track, but juiced up. This is always a really fun time once we get into like the middle of January, because then the the film must be ground boys must be grinded. I don't know what's what? How would you say that not like that grind?
Yeah, they're definitely there's some film grinding going on right now. So Dynasty Pass dot com if you want to be a part of that.
I did have a quick one that we have that link.
I believe so I believe we got like every single.
We got so URLs. Hey, yeah, we do, look at that dynastypass dot com. Great, great work team.
I did have a quick question that had to do with rookie picks because a lot of people right now, I think the conversation is I know who I think I wanted the one oh one, I want Ashton Chanty, I want this running back, and then I don't know what else is going to happen, And a lot of people have kind of penciled that in. So the question I'm seeing it's on our discord. This one's from Eisenberg forty four is basically, what do I need to pay to get up to the one oh one? So for him, he has the one O three, one oh nine, win ten and was asking what do I need to give up to get up to the one oh one. So let's say you did have the one oh three, what would you feel comfortable and would you guys be making that trade right now as opposed to the one on One's only gonna get more valuable, We're only gonna get more information. So BET's what would you do in this situation at the one o three?
Yeah, I mean if if this trade is on the table and it's a possibility to even execute this trade and go up to the one oh one and give up in this hypothetical will be the one o three and the one ten. You know, I'm not fully into this class quite yet. Like I've kind of started, I've I've touched on a couple of guys, but like I haven't really gotten into the full nitty griddy here. But Jens is clearly going to be the RB one in this class. Simba be everybody's RB one. He's probably gonna go in the first round of the NFL Draft, is what a lot of people are saying early on, And as the weeks go by, you have more of the NFL draft community talking up Gen Dynasty people. This price of the one oh one will skyrocket over the next, you know, three months basically as you look forward towards April, and then if he goes to a landing spot where you're just like, oh my goodness, like the value will be completely outrageous and you won't be able to do this deal at all at that point. So if you think that that is the move, and you are that high on this player, which I'm not saying is right or wrong, I haven't gotten there yet, but if you think he is, you know that much of a difference maker. I think doing this right now is definitely viable. I mean, the one ten like it carries value and name, but if you go back the last three four or five years of like who actually gets picked around that range, you know they're not home runs by any means, and there's a ton of misses there too. So yeah, I think this is a very fair deal and I definitely will be interested in doing this.
I think that it's fair. It's just a like how deep because the uh the question specifically was my running back room is junk and I'm trying to you know, fix that up, and I the value of being able to take three shots, So you have the one O three, one O nine and one ten, like did you need multiple scratchers here? And the will the one O three? What will it's it just comes us? Will Jant be that much better than the one O three? And I'm like, I'm with bets of like I don't know.
I mean, I don't have all that either.
I don't have all the information yet. And landing spot and draft capital is so important. He looks like an absolute stud, but he's in a weaker conference. And sometimes the high t management of NFL, like they they they double count that against the player, and like, no, that player drops, you know, and and sometimes different players go higher, like remember the uh, the Sony Michelle Nick Chubb here, Like I like Sony Michelle a lot, don't get me wrong, but it was like Nick Chubb is an absolute unit, Like this guy is gonna be a beast. And then who goes in the back of the first round, Sony Michelle. And now all of a sudden your brain is fried and you're like, well he went in the first round. Obviously Sony Michelle is the pick, and uh it was not. The pick was Nick Chubb, who, despite where he is now at his career, with these catastrophic injuries, happening. Nick Chubb was the guy to have there for years, so it's it's difficult at this point. You know, if you're you're saying, I need to rebuild my running back room, I don't know if right now is the time to make that trade in terms of you need all those picks if you want the one on one. I think I'm with bets of yeah, we're we're all gonna go crazy and blow this thing out. Proportion of the like this is it's Bijon, it's Bryce Hall, you gotta have the one on one. How's Marv Harrison Junior doing right now? How are we feeling about that? Feel like crap? Feeling like I would I would trade him in a first to get Brian Thomas. Like I'm not actually doing that, but like that's how it feels. That's how he feels for sure. So just just be careful with your capital. But if you are really really excited, I don't think that's a bad trade to get up to the one on one.
Yes, I think that. I think the compensation part I'm totally fine with there. I do worry when we're at this point in the process in January and we've already penciled, and this dude is for sure the one on one, which you know, I put a percentage likelihood that, yeah, it's more likely or not that he's gonna end up being the one on one. A lot of drafts that are one quarterback drafts, but I wouldn't put that at like higher than seventy percent. You know, it's like there's room for other players, there's room for landing spots. I mean, if he goes to Dallas at twelve, which Rabel or Rabel was talking about running backs, and you ride running backs, and then I was thinking about Dallas and whoever there guys like they're gonna be like, let's just go for it, let's get this running back. So Dallas at twelve is an interesting spot if they're going to take a running back.
But but the not crowning the one on one right now is a yes, just be careful with that. Jonathan Taylor was the one on one. Clyde goes in the first round. He now he wasn't like the consensus. Some people still took Johnny Taylors, They still kept their wits about them. I did not. I got hoodwinked into going into Clyde Uh, the year that Nikhill Harry goes to the New England Patriots. Did we have that? Right? But did we have uh? Did we have Nikuille? Did we have nikkill Harry as uh? The one on one before all that started?
I didn't. And it's one of those things where I think at different points in the offseason, if it's January, if it's February, it's March, it's okay to change your opinion, but to kind of give yourself a number. We often talk about percentage likelihood. So I just threw out there, like I seventy percent likelihood that he's going to be the dude at one oh one, and I would take him there. But don't just put it at one hundred percent and not think about it again over the next couple weeks. So BET's any last thoughts on just how you manage this at this point in the offseason.
No, Like I said, I think the deal's fine, And if that's your conviction and that's your take, I think now's the time to do it right because it only gets more expensive and you're going to have to add at a second on top of that in you know, a month, basically kind kind of thing so yeah, do it now if that's what you If that's what you want to do, and I would just go back to like, like these guys have kind of said these last like three to five drafts, look at the names, the quality of names that go at the picks that you're willing to offer, and kind of ballpark who might be there this year. That's a good way to do it. But yeah, I agree, now's the time to do it, if you are going to do it.
I a couple of years ago went through every single draft I think since twenty fifteen and just kind of looked at the process of here's these players, here's why they went there in rookie drafts, and it is a roller coaster of what we thought at the time based on a lot of time, opportunity, and workload. So for running back, that is the position that we're trying to project, Like, Okay, I can see this backfield. They have it to themselves, they're the dude, and if they're getting this draft capital in the first round, cool, we can move forward. But man, there are so many times where we're just dead wrong on these So there's there's bus and every single one.
Willis was like a top five pick he NFL draft.
He was the betting favorite to go second overall.
And him and will Yes last couple of years, Oh my goodness.
Yeah, Willis actually was okay this year.
Yeah he was. He definitely was. I'm just saying Draft Capital you. You we don't know the draft two days before the draft. You don't have a complete lock on what's going to happen. But January especially, be careful.
Yep. All right, let's move on.
Rookie review.
Last week we kind of laid the groundwork of how we're doing this process, and we're treating it like a checkup. So almost a year later, some of these prospects, we went super deep of what could go right and wrong in the draft process. So I might have thrown out some thoughts like, ah, Worthy, I don't see how it's gonna work the NFL. He's just not as fast, you know, on tape, and I took a couple of stomach punches, and then weeks two through like fourteen, I was like, yeah, okay, player, I recovered and then the final what like three weeks that he played, he was really really good. So we'll talk about Worthy today. And mine wasn't a take of this guy's things. It's just like, how is this going to work in the NFL? And for a while I was like, what are they doing with this dude? So we'll talk about worthy. We'll talk about the historical context. So this player was drafted here, and here's all the players of the last decade of what they've done. And a lot of times, if you're among the Odell Beckhams or Jamar Chases of the world or aj Brown from your rookie year, you balled out. And we have some guys this year that did that, and then we'll talk about their value moving forward, what do we do? So remember last year we started this conversation with Pokua and Akua and we were like, my brain hurts from thinking about a player with this draft capital doing what he did, and where do we put him moving forward? We're going to have to do that, guys with Brian Thomas Junior. That's gonna be the first name that we bring up. I'm going to order these by fantasy finish, and then at the end we'll throw out some names that like, Okay, where does roma dudes they fit in? Or what do we do with Ricky Piersoll. So names like that. But let's start with Brian Thomas Junior. And first I just want to get a reaction. Did you guys see twelve hundred plus yards and ten touchdowns on the table this year? Because I did not.
I did not. I did not. Nope.
I throw that out there because I've vividly remember Andy having a conversation this summer. He was the most pro Brian Thomas Junior of this group, and he's like, I feel like, you know, I haven't projected for twelve hundred yards. I like, as somebody like behind the scenes that gets to work with numbers. I was like, Andy, I can't let you say that. Delete that the fust that's like, that's irresponsible in our projections. And he was pretty firm that he thought BTJ would be the guy. He ends up as the wide receiver four on the season, which feels just wild to think about. It was a monster rookie season. Third receiving yards, fifth and deep targets and then a number that I want to bring up. We talk about this with college all the time, a dominator rating, if you'd use in the NFL. His dominator rating was forty four percent.
Sweet fancy Moses, So explain dominator real quick Kyle for people.
Yeah, so basically the percentage of the team's overall yards and touchdowns is just a wild and we wait those Usually.
That's an elite running back right there, like no who gets handoffs and stuff, not a guy who has to go down the field for every pass.
So, I mean, I posted the thread just to remind myself. But Betts, I'll let you start the conversation of Brian Thomas junior rookie year. I mean, what is what are your thoughts?
What's there to say?
I mean, it was an incredible season, one of the best rookie seasons we've seen in a very long time, one of the best ever. I went back to the last couple of years and looked at who eclipsed two point three yards per out run or higher as a rookie if they've seen at least I think with seventy five targets as the qualifier I used. The names on the list are are the names like AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Chris o'lave, Pukinakua Rushi Rice, Brian Thomas Junior, and we'll talk about Lab mccacky, who's also on that list, but like that's the type of season it was. It was that good. And I think when you look at the context of the season in and of itself, like the Jags were terrible and there was just so many moving parts from like offensive line injuries to Trevor Lawrence getting injured, some of the wide receiver injuries in theory may have helped the target competition be pretty soft. I think this type of outcome would have happened regardless. I think he's just that good. But like the team was so bad and he was still doing this catching passes down the stretch from Mac Jones, Okay Mac Jones, Like, you know, I think that all needs to be put into the context here, Like he wasn't catching passes from a Joe Burrow type or Lamar Jackson, right, like really really excited to see what he did here. And you know, and I think when he came out of school, a lot of people were questioning, like, Okay, how much of this was playing next to Milick Neighbors. Obviously now in hindsight we know this, but Jane Daniels is a superstar, Like how much of it was that, you know, opening up the offense. He's kind of getting a ton of deep targets like how sustainable is this in the NFL. I think he proved a lot of that, a lot of those questions wrong or at least answer those questions, because he could do stuff close to line of scrimmage, down the field and intermediate area. So just a full season from Brian Thomas Junior, really really strong and yeah, not much negative honestly to say, given how strong the season was.
Yeah, them, I'm in, so I will, I will start the conversation there. But it's you know, you should always try to Devil's advocate at least a little bit. And it's so it is, I mean it, I guess this is a point in his favorite but it's am and raw Saint Brown esque. Now, he had obviously had some bigger games at the start of the season talking about Brian Thomas Junior, but it was week thirteen on when he just went nuclear. And that's when that's besides weeks like one through three, that's when our hearts are most emotionally receptive to what these players are doing on the field, as in, I take everything they do bad or great personally, So you know, just I feel like it's it's hard intellectually trying to make to make the argument because I think he's so great, but that happened. Christian Kirk hurt, Evan Ingram, an absolute target machine hurt. That's why I'm saying it feels like am and Raw, whereas the end of the year, all those guys were hurt on the Detroit Lions and all a sudden, Saint Brown is a superstar. And this one with the extra variable of the Trevor Lawrence to mac Jones, which Trevor Lawrence like Trevor Lawrence will be the guy and is he is Trevor Lawrence capable enough and does he have enough of that? It's not the mac Jones. I don't know what to call it, but just where you're like, yeah, I'm gonna throw out somebody number one guy, just over and over and over. That's that's how I'm gonna choose to do it. Will Trevor Lawrence be willing to do that? So we can, you know, maintain those awesome numbers because the first half was it was bumpy. You you saw signs of this is a great player, and then you had games where he would vanish. But Trevor Lawrence was also playing hurt the it's so wild. The season is so wild for Brian Thomas Junior what he was able to accomplish on that team. So I'm I'm all in, you know, just want to try and get a full three sixty picture here of what's going on and not don't just glance over and try and wash things out of why this could have gone so good for Brian Thomas Junior. At least at least acknowledge those things happened and take it into your process.
Yeah, one of the things if you want to break up the season, Trevor Lawrence was there weeks one through nine and then tried to come back a couple weeks later, but essentially weeks went through nine was Lawrence. Rest away was Mac Jones, and Trevor Lawrence is a first read type thrower like Tua and Trevor Lawrence are the ones that throw their first reads more than anybody else in the NFL. For the first part of the season, like you mentioned Mike, it was a lot of Kirk and it was Evan Ingram who are a part of the offense, and so down the stretch, it was Mac Jones, who we can joke about. Mac Jones. The dude probably got himself a contract somewhere else of just like being a competitor and being a capable backup. I'm not saying he's good, but he actually, like.
You contract, Yes, a backup contract for sure.
That's I mean, that's a big deal for somebody at the end who we were like, oh this is a washed out you know, former first round pick. But down the stretch you kind of saw he was the first read and they used him a ton in the screen game. We'll talk about Marvin Harrison. Guys. Do you guys know how many targets behind the line of scrimmage Marvin Harrison had this past year?
Was zero? Wasn't it zero?
Yes, you just didn't get any layup throws where Brian Thomas Jr. You saw the YAC plays you saw him use there. And I went back to our notes this past year of like, okay, we were scouting this player, like, man, look at all these deep balls, these go balls, and they're kind of giving him these targets to just create in space. But I found this note that I forgot, I meant, and it was about his route running. And I'm gonna use a video game analogy here. So when you're playing Super Smash Brothers, which I mean, come on, if you're not, what are you doing. There's a certain level player that doesn't just you know, run around and fight. You start doing this move called wave dashing where you're just kind of like you're gliding when you play. You're not running up to people and fighting. Those are the best players in the world when you can play like that. That's the way I kind of describe his route running. Even though he's really tall, he kind of just glides when he runs, and so he's not just a deep ball threat. And they kind of used him on these slants and stuff where he can just take it to the house. So the comps, you guys, remember the comps that we gave him were is he Terrence Marshall Junior? So did he have a big LSU season and he's gonna fail? I wrote is he a more slender Nico Collins? Which is I was like, okay, And then the high end was is he eighty percent of Ceedee Lamb? And so that kind of finishes the discussion here. Where does he slide in among dynasty wide receivers like I have Chase and Jefferson and kind of in their own tier. Sure, but then this next tier a Monraw CD LAMB Neighbors, a Monraw that's kind of like where I have it. And then this next tier is Puka, Nico and Drake London. Where do you put Brian Thomas Junior.
Just realizing our list has a Monra twice on it, amad Neighbors, I was like.
Wait, Janiary seventeen.
I'm not a good I'm not a details guy. I just put the numbers down.
Oh man, Yeah, I mean look, if anybody wanted to put him in that tier, I don't think that's wrong. Like you you bet on tier two, Yeah, I mean you bet on Okay, Alpha talented wide receivers who show it in year one twenty two years old. The age is incredible, the draft capital is incredible, the Year one production is incredible, all the underlying peripherals are great.
I get it, you know. I think he's there.
Looking at Nico and Puka and Drake London like I would love all those guys on my Dynasty team. It's tough with a guy like Drake London, who I think. I think we all kind of got a little bit out over our skis on this past offseason with the Kirk Cousins contract, and obviously in hindsight it's easy to say that, but like when I watched Drake London, who's awesome, but I watched Brian Thomas Junior, Like, there's just something different about the way Brian Thomas Junior plays that, Like I could see him being like a true alpha in the league for years and years and years. And not that Drake London can't. But the way that Drake London like has to win, in my opinion, is through volume kind of is how his game is is usually on the field, but like Brian Thomas Junior could just have an outrageously efficient season even if he's not getting one hundred and fifty targets, like I think Drake London needs that to be to be the dude.
So that's why I.
Think i'd have him above Drake London. But yeah, with Pooka, with Nico, like, I think he deserves to be there.
Yeah, I don't have any disagreements. I would I'd put him in Tier two. Can he get to Tier one? Maybe? Like it getting up to tier one is something we need to not just hand out all willy nilly, But I'll say it's it's not impossible, and it's it's impossible for a lot of guys like You'll just you'll never ever be what Jefferson or Jamar Chase can do because you just you you don't have the natural ability combined with what you have worked for. So if Brian Thomas could possibly get.
There, yeah, I probably have him at the back end of two, maybe at three in terms of these tiers, and we get to talk about that, you know, all off season at the end of the day, is there a huge difference between him and Puka or Nico. Maybe not, like it's just it's not really a conversation point. But this next guy that we'll talk about in just a second, I think it is a conversation point. So let's take a quick break and we'll be right back finishing. As wide receiver seven is, Malik Neighbors was taken six overall by the Giants. One hundred and sixty six targets is the most ever for a rookie wide receiver and he missed two games, so that's crazy. One hundred nine receptions, most ever for a rookie wide receiver. We talked about dominator rating. This is at forty seven percent. I don't know if that says more about him or the Giants based on that number.
Sure, I mean he was the office.
So, like I joked about Wandale all year, but I'm gonna say it again, it was the most worthless season of all time.
Oh man, well, I wish I could underdog put a stat out where it was like that was the most receptions for anyone who's had under eight hundred yards or something like that, and he was he had like six hundred and he was under seven hundred yards. So he's playing in a two point PPR league.
So Malik Neighbors the ride though, we have to remember, like the first month of the season he had some monster performances and then he was hurt or he had a concussion, and then the ride on the way back was rough. I mean the volume was there, so in full PPR you were totally fine, but it wasn't really till the last month or so of the season. Then we got to see the real, true fantasy production and you could throw that on the quarterback, the scheme, whatever else. But I don't know, Bets, what are your thoughts on Neighbors and would you take him over Brian Thomas Junior.
Oh Man, that is tough because before, like obviously entering the season after the NFL Draft, it was no question Neighbors over Brian Thomas Junior. Honestly, I think it's a coin flip. I mean, they're both superstars. I think they're both set up for success for years as far as their talent is concerned with Neighbors, Like, he's a guy that I feel like this past year could have been even better, which is kind of wild to say, because he did see one hundred and sixty six targets, what's twelve hundred yards? But when your scoring expectation is as low as it is every single week playing for the New York Giants without Daniel Jones, which is saying something like, it's hard to be incredible in fantasy. And yeah, like he had that insane Week seventeen, which in Fantasy Championships means a lot to us, where he was the wide receiver two. But like you said, from Week seven to like Week fourteen, Week fifteen sixteen, it was kind of rough in fantasy land. Not saying it's his fault because the team just isn't scoring touchdowns and like you need that to take you to the next level. So I have question marks just about what does that look like this coming season with the Giants. I think they could be better, but like you know, it's gonna take a lot and it's gonna take a lot to turn that around quickly. That got to hit on a quarterback. So that's the major question mark for me. But outside of that, the talent level and you know, production that he'll have for years in this league, to me is no question Just commands, targets, can win down the field, short intermediate, can do it all, great route runner, super explosive. Just I think he's a true Alpha. And like I said, my only question mark is just this Giant's team for the next you know, two three years.
They picked third, and I mean it's speaking of draft craziness, like the quarterback class, the incoming quarterback class, I mean, where is the where is the confidence? Not great in there? You know what I mean? Because I've I've seen Sanders is the Sanders is the flashy name. I'm not saying he's the QB one. But just like the everybody knows normis out, Yeah, normis Like I'm I'm not I'm not dialed into college. Yet I'm about to get scouting on these prospects. I know who Shidoor Sanders is because of all of the media and because of his father, and he's a good player. It looks like but I've seen, you know, the anonymous scout comments coming out of like no, he's like, yeah, this is this is a quarterback who you should take at the top of the first round. He's definitely worth it. And I've heard this is a player who should be drafted in on day two or day three. Like the the the up the anonymous opinions coming out on him are all over the place, which maybe people are smoke screening and things like that, but point being when a player when when quarterbacks are locked in at like that wasn't the way that people talked about Andrew luck or Trevor Lawrence. You know, it was like that's the guy that's the one on one. We know it's going to be the one on one. Let's hurt he even get the draft going so we can see who the second pick is going to be. So it's being at three in this class looking for a quarterback, I don't know, I mean yet, like Tennessee's at one Cleveland's at two at Cleveland, especially now with the the whole Achilles gate that's going on with the Shawn Watson of the retear. I mean Watson was already with the tear, but a retear Now, maybe Cleveland gets out of a contract if they're they're in a really big deficit here talking about the Giants going to the offseason and hey, hey, maybe maybe a little uh drew or not not Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold's hey, hey, guys, can I talk the Giants into Sam dark in New York.
He's he's He's like, I don't want to go back to New York.
Man.
It's like, so here's my question for neighbors. Because we're not questioning if he can earn targets, I mean highest targets brought run the highest target share of any rookie wide receiver over the last decade, so bonkers. But does a quarterback actually change anything or have we kind of like, you know, the adage always gives like it can only get better from here for quarterbacks, now it can obviously, you know, horizontally, he kind of stay the same.
He gets a bunch of When you look at an X Y graph, there is there's another option.
He could Garrett Wilson where you get a ton of volume this and he breaks the Garrett Wilson you know, targets through two years number and you go, oh man, this is still the same thing, and you're still hoping for more. But I don't know. I personally would take him over BTJ. I don't think it's by a ton.
But I would. I would.
He's not just an alpha, He's like he can be the alpha, and I have more confidence in him going to Tier one than BTJ, where I think BTJ might end up with more touchdowns. But Milak Neighbors is just different. When you command and it's like, if you're in full PPR, congratulations, you're gonna get one hundred and fifty plus targets every single year and it's guarantee.
But I don't know.
I don't think the quarterback, whoever it is, changes that much for me.
I think it, Yeah, I lean Malik over Thomas.
I think Kyle's point there, like the Garrett Wilson type thing is what I was referring to with like the giants for the next year to two years, and this is dynasty. So I'm not saying like you should be worried about neighbors in Dynasty, Like, clearly he's a I don't know, top ten overall startup pick, like he's just that good. But when you think about the Garrett Wilson value in the market for the last couple of years, it was like, the question about his talent is not there. He's talented, he's gonna earned targets. But to be a top ten, top five fantasy receiver, you've got to score touchdowns, and I feel like for twenty twenty five, that's my concern for Neighbors. So I thought there's gonna be a mismatch where it's like in Dynasty he's untouchable and redraft you're like, I feel like I don't have to have him, you know, like that kind of thing. So yeah, but this is Dynasty and there's no questions about his talent.
All right, next guy, we're going to talk about his lad Butconkey, who somehow finished the season.
No, it's where it is, Marv Marvin Harrison Junior.
Right, Well, we're going to talk about him in a little bit because well he still got a little ways to go in terms of fantasy finish. But wide receiver twelve form Aconkey is a lot higher than what it felt like for most of the season. I mean, you know, from week eight on he was the wide receiver eight in fantasy. And that's kind of how you have to break up the Chargers season of what did they do for the first month, which was, hey, we know the brand of football we like. So for the first month of this season, they were twenty eighth in neutral pass right thirty first in yards per game passing. It was like, it was bad. It was bad. It was one of the things that was like, this is all of our fears for fantasy of like, oh, no, they're not going to throw the ball at his best. And then they had a bye week where I don't know if Justin Herbert like said something, but he's like, let me throw the ball. And so from then on they were fifth and explosive pass right eighth in yards per game and Maconkee was awesome. I looked this up. He was third in the NFL and receiving yards on play action passes, behind only Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. That's like alpha stuff. And he's such a funny player because when you watch him on the field, You're like, I'm as big as that dude. Like, I'm the same size as Lad McConkie, and he's just out there in the playoff game putting up what you are.
Not though I'm the same exact size you are, not we are. I mean, I was at UH. I was at the watching the Vikings get absolutely thromped last night, UH and our I was with the buddy of mine and we were pretty close to the field and you're looking down there. You're like, I know these When I'm watching TV, I'm like, those are those guys are big? And then you get close in person and you go, no, they're people. Can't be this big. Those These are the biggest, strongest humans I've ever seen in my life. So I'm saying Lad McConkie to us nerds when we're looking at the that whatever that isometric view that we get every single Sunday, Like, you know, I'm about the same size as that guy. No, go stand next to him and be like that, that dude is two times thicker than me.
I love Kyle's just from Afar takes on player speed their sides.
Kyle thinks very highly of himself.
No, I love ladmaconk and I will always stick up for him as a Georgia boy. But it's like when somebody gets this open all the time against any coverage, because that's one of the things we look at, is like zone coverage, man coverage, maybe they're better at this. It didn't really matter. He just wins over and over and over again. We saw that in college. But I think our biggest bugaboo was like he was never on the field.
Yeah, it was just weird.
It was a weird thing for us to look at a player who just didn't have the amount of reps and targets and routes and everything else to go like, what does the NFL think about them? So in the in the pre draft process we were like, I don't know, And then in the NFL draft was like, okay, thirty fourth overall they think he's the dude, And clearly he's the dude. I mean, if you end up with eleven fifty five in terms of yardage, that's wild stuff. Bets any takes you want to give, because it's the fifth best yards per out run for zone, fourth best yards per out run of any wide receiver. I mean on a per route basis. He was over the top.
And that's that was the story coming out with Lad, Like he just talked about like he didn't play a ton of snaps, didn't run a ton of routes in general, and therefore, if you're more of a production profile, analytics based dynasty player, Lad did not look very good at all because he just wasn't on the field enough. But everything for him on a per route basis at Georgia was off the charts. And then you watch him play at Georgia and you're like, oh no, this guy's good. And then everything he did in college he did in the pros. Super good route runner, so reliable catches, everything, can win in the middle of the field, which, like you said, Kyle, for a guy who's just so small, I mean, Kyle's the same size as him.
I didn't say. I said I was the same size Kyle.
So you're big.
No, I didn't say I was big.
You you have to pick one. You can't say. I'm not saying nothing, Kyle.
For a guy that's the same size as Kyle to win in the NFL over the middle of the field, I mean, Kyle, you would you would die out there. He's just the same size, We squatted the same for all the same.
Yeah, same our mile time found the same.
But I was always I was always QB and flag. So who knows, No one.
Knows, but yeah, to anyway, Kyle and Ladd together on the field just unstoppable. Ladd's's ability to win at all three levels for a player that you don't think could actually do that because he's not flashy, He's not, you know, this huge.
That's the point.
This huge guy, like he just does it and he wins with his route running, which those are the guys that I think can stick around the league for a long time and be productive. So yeah, I think Lad's got it. And look at the depth chart, like this is his team as far as the past game goes. So yeah, obviously if he took him where you did, like he was behind you know, Neighbors and Marv and Brian Thomas Junior and all these guys, and he was kind of like the all right, I don't get any I was like, I guess I'll take Ladd or or keon Coleman. It's like, man, that looks like a home run pick. If that was you this offseason, yep, I'm I don't he may not be there yet, but I will be ranking lad McConkie like is a two or three guy, Like I'm wow, my chips are already all in.
It is for for a rookie season. Is it's perfection? It is? It is the full like, hey, we're getting acclimated, you know. There they have huges on this team. They're still gonna they're gonna try and see if they can recoup some of the value that they spent drafting him in the first round, Like they're gonna do some other things. They're gonna make the rookie earn his role as becoming the number one guy on the team, and by the second half he did and he's just everything guys have said is I believe. I think he's awesome. I can he get to Tier two? That remains to be seen. But I am willing to rank him and price him as in like on my team, if someone's trying to come trade for him, or if I'm gonna go trade for m conky that's the type of move that it could look like an overpay right now to trade for mkonkye, But I would be willing to do that because I think he's going to be so so amazing for for fantasy the it's the eleven hundred yards, Okay, that's great. Seven touchdowns, man, like a guy of like, oh, it's a slot player. Seven touchdowns as a rookie. I mean this, this dude is gonna and and Quentin Johnson's not it. He's not he's he's not that guy. Lab McConkie's that guy. So I'm I'm gonna be overly aggressive trying to get mconkey. Yeah.
And some of those touchdowns we need to remember they're like breakaway, big play, you know, down town stuff like this.
This isn't just the the Keenan like we're I mean, we thought that, oh, this is a chance he could be Keenan Allen, you know of like possession guy PPR gal. But he is. He's ripping off chunk plays man that we weren't used to seeing from Keenan Allen. Keenan Owl's rookie year. Okay, But after that they used them in a certain way.
That was the up I gave was Golden Tate, which he was a down the field guy early in his career, but then he kind of turned into this slot only short area and he had a long career for NFL standards, but I was also telling bets like because Lad was on all my redraft teams and I had him on a couple dynasty, I feel like I was all Lad all year and by the end of the year Keenan was balling out, Lad was balling out. And then the playoffs, I was just like Keenan, who I mean, this is Lad Now?
It's so with the old man.
Dude, Lad's the man. So I think in full PPR, I get what you're saying. If that's a big Tier three, you know, let's say, right after Drake London, would you rather have JSN or Lad? Mconkey.
That's tough. I that is, that is extremely tough. The breakout for JSN is real. Just the actions that the team is taking right now has me not full spooked, but you know, like my my my antennae are up of they like those not a bad offense by by metrics, like, this was not a disaster. It was not a catastrophe. And and often in the NFL, it takes it takes teams quarterbacks. The second year is when okay, everything is clicked. I'm not learning it, I'm just wrapping it and I'm going I don't have to think about it as much and things take off. But it was a good first year and they're like, no, Ryan Grubb, you're out, and uh, you know coach speak, which is they're they're they're a good follow on Twitter. They dive deep on what guys are saying, went back to what the head coaches talking about of we really really want to be a run team, and so I'm like, Okay, what kind of oc are we're going to pull in? So this is you know, this is me saying, I'm I'm up in the air until I find out who Seattle replaces him with. But if they come in with a high t this is a run first type of offensive court that will not be surprising to me. If they want to shape the identity of the team that way.
That's a good point on the Seattle thing. I don't really think about that because my initial take was like, oh, jaysm was just incredible, Like, I think it's a fair question. But now that I hear Mike talk and think about it, it's like this guy has tied to Justin Herbert for the next X number of years, no question. Now you have wrecked GINO DK and JSN learning their third scheme, third offense in three years, right, because they've they're changing it over year every year, and then gino, how long is he there?
That's a question. So yeah, I guess I would take Lad with some of those uncertainties in Seattle.
It's a coin flip for me.
Yeah, they're very close. I'm just saying of, like if we get a one of these rech read g Ro type guys. Yes, Giro. They they turned it around the second half, They pulled their head out, their button figured out we got to get hurt by going It's not a head up, but in what you're trying to call plays in the NFL, it's not ideal. Can't see the play shit. But I'm I'm so, I'm I'm trying to like the jays N's value. I'm gonna leave it where it is right now. But he might slide down a couple of spots or two. And I'm not calling for red alert catastrophe on Jasn, by the way, just saying of when we're comparing him where a trajectory of a career might be going, I think Lad might overtake him.
All right, let's talk about Marvin Harrison Junior because the Cardinals took him forth overall and you probably took him first overall in your draft. Yeah, and Week one was the pits. I mean, just god, just the slowest player that's ever lived. Is he trying? Does he even care? He's done? He's done? This is over? And I remember on this podcast we got to kind of break it down week two towards the Rams. I feel like he did everything in one quarter. He did because he did okay, if I remember, he was a wide receiver one, so it was awesome. We were so back, man, we were feeling good. And over the course of the year is basically did he catch a touchdown? That's what it came down to. Seven games of a touchdown, he averaged seventeen fantasy points per game. Ten games out of touchdown less than five fantasy points per game. And I think one of the hardest things going back through Marv film and just how they manufacture the offense is he wasn't the only dude and his aid dot. If you look at wide receivers with seventy five plus targets in the year at fourteen point one, only Calvin Ridley and Rome Maduonsay had a higher a dot. So a lot of the throws just weren't easy, and it felt forced, it felt tough sometimes, and at the end of the day it was like the easy stuff went to Trade McBride. So you can explain away a lot of stuff. Still, eight hundred and eighty five yards and eight touchdowns is not poo poo. People. You just were hoping for Ony ten.
I guess minimum. Yeah, you absolutely were, and there was there's optimism, but I'm gonna start with I'll start with the pessimism in the red flags of Like watch a Cardinal game and watch the way that Trey McBride catches the ball, what he does after catch, like his effort to go get it, and then his effort after he catches it and go and then targets to Marv. And think to yourself, if I'm a quarterback, why would I ever throw the ball to Marvin Harrison when I have Trey McBride out there like this dude is a total dog and Marv is out here like real, even keeled, nonchalant and like that. That's not what I need from a wide receiver.
One hot dogging, which is different than having that dog.
Well hot dogg is show is showing off Kyle.
He's farting around, is what he.
Yes, he was. Definitely it felt like he was farting around. The offensive play calling, not ever getting Marv anything easy is just right to jail. I mean, this is this should be considered illegal. It's a you drafted him to be a superstar. Treat him as such. Don't treat him as a guy who just has to run down the field every single Don't just be running nine routes like get the guy touches. Let him get involved in the game, then run a nine route. I mean the eight touchdowns is uh, it's that at least you have that, uh, the trajectory because he's Look, Marv is a different player than Elik Neighbors, which was the I mean, we talked about that all the last off season. Milik Neighbors is an athlete. Malie could have played any sport he wanted to play like this dude is an electric athlete, and Marv is a he's a he's a good wide receiver. I still think he's a good wide receiver and could be a great wide receiver. Like the the path that I am personally hoping for with him I mean, well, number one could be his dad, you know, like his the if you've seen the stat line of that.
Was the only path for him, the only trade, the only occupation his father would let him.
I was saying, Harrison Junior versus Harrison Senior. The end of rookie year numbers our own. It's identical. It's not great when you adjust for the era that we're in now with passing. But and then it's like, look at Davante Adams. DeVante Adams was is he's He's not the Molik Neighbors athlete. He figured out how to be an amazing wide receiver. And that's the that's the hope and the course that Marv could take. Now, is it going to happen? Based off of watching what he did in year one? Again, DeVante Adams sucked like that dude was that dude was real bad for I think two years before becoming a this guy who we we just look at, Oh there's a Hall of Fame elite wide receiver. He was really really bad for two years. Hopefully Marv's not bad for two years. But that that's the that's the hope. But man, he's this offseason. Hopefully we can get so we got to get some mental change in here. We got we need the dog to come out for Marvin Harrison to look like he cares when it's a contested ball and you are this gigantic mammoth superhero of a human being. That ball is yours. No one else has access to that football. It is only yours. And that's not the way he played.
Yeah, I think so. I mean, this is a super important conversation because when you took him, it was like, this can't this can't fail. That was the thought process behind a lot of people take how that.
The unfortunately was the verbiage that all of us were guilty of using.
No, No, I know, but I'm saying relative to expectation, that's the problem with Marv in my opinion, was the expectation was a minimum of a thousand, like you said, and ten touchdowns, and like even then I'd be like, okay, it was fine, right, Like he was billed as this can't miss prospect. I'm not saying he won't be incredible in the NFL for years to come or anything like that. But if like Brian Thomas Junior had given you this stat line, sixty two catches eighthy five yards and eight touchdowns. You'd be like, okay for my expectation with Brian Thomas Jr. Like I'm excited about that, but because he went top five in the NFL Draft and because he was taken as a fringe like round one redraft pick, like, it feels so so bad. So I don't want to overreact to one year. I want to take a step back and say, like, for a rookie, this is still pretty good. Like it's not great, obviously, but it's pretty good. It's just tough when Brian Thomas Jr. Lad Blake, neighbors they're all doing like super special things and Marv has just a pretty good year. That's the tough part with Marv for a lot of people is the expectation. So if you took him at the one oh one, I don't think you can. I mean there's always a price for everybody, but I don't think you can move on low Like I'm kind of holding out and.
Like, no, right for sure.
And he's still a good player to have in Dynasty. It's just that the pre draft expectations were so high it was almost impossible to reach those. But I went back before this show and watched a couple of his games at a high stage, just like remind myself of like what he was like in college and the way they were using him. There was so different in the slot, a bunch, super diverse route tree. Not all of his targets were on the boundary, like next to a lot of scrimmage. So I do think if he can just get you know, a better scheme around him, a better play caller, that there is a massive ceiling here. So I'm not super worried about Marv quite yet. Obviously, if he does it again this year, then it's like, okay, we got to have a conversation. But I'm still very in on Marvin Harrison Junior, and I think a lot of people you know, should still be if.
He's If he's bad again, I will I'll tell my DeVante Adam's story.
Yeah, yeah, there you go. He's got two years. No, it's Petsing's fault.
Come on, man, I do not care. No, he's getting head coach interviewed. Okay, but he might be gone. Do you get him out of here?
They're talking him up all the objects in Arizona, Like, yeah, this guy, he would be great, great position how.
At what point do you look Are you like, Okay, we're far enough into the season, guys, let's evaluate the offense that we're putting out on the field, the position we're putting our guys in. I mean, what eight games in can you look back? You'd be like, this is we're doing something wrong. We took this guy fourth. Overall, we're doing something very very wrong. But they never did. They look back to great work. Everybody keep doing it. Send him down the field.
Just to give you a couple of numbers, I mean, Garrett Wilson, Marie Cooper, AJ Brown, Ceedee Lamb their rookie year, they had basically the same exact target Shair dk Metcalf, who I think is kind of an interesting comp when you think about how he was utilized early in his career of just big plays, basically had the same exact production as a rookie year. But obviously the you know, expectations, like Betts was saying, was very very different. But Ceedee Lamb had a nineteen percent target share as a rookie. I mean, Mark Cooper was there. It's just interesting for us to contextualize these players and to think about what we want them to do and then take a step back and go, this is actually a good rookie year. It's not a great rookie year, but a good rookie year and something to build on moving forward. So, yeah, if you paid that price, don't just cash in right now. No no, no, no, don't don't do that. All right, take quick break, we'll be right back. All right, we're gonna finish the show off with a couple of quick hitters. Talk about some players that were further down. So see if you're worthy. Finished at wide receiver thirty three, and we talked earlier. Week one was awesome, and then it was kind of silent until the Fantasy playoffs weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen, where he had a twenty six percent target share. He was the dude, and if you look at kind of his dynasty value. After week one, everyone's like, sweet, I've got you, I've got the take. So and then in like the end of November, there was just this crater of just like, ah, I took him over lad Or, I took him over Brian Thomas Junior, whatever you did. I took him over Bowers, Like those are all the that's what people were doing and now we're kind of seeing this uptick and we'll figure out what he is in the playoffs, and we'll use those numbers, and we'll talk about Rashid Rice and how he wasn't there and blah blah blah blah blah. But I think my biggest point I want to bring up about him is like his usage was all over the map in college. He was like a deep ball guy, and then his final year is behind the line of scrimmage. This past year, sixty nine percent of his targets were under ten yards, and then they started changing his role, And so I don't know, Bets, what do you think of him moving forward? And is he like a high upside wide receiver three in Dynasty? That's kind of like the spot that I have him pegged in as.
Yeah, I think when you watch his game compared to the other guys we talked about, like clearly a different level of wide receiver, you know, from like an on field standpoint, like not the best route runner, not the most like refined NFL wide receiver, But obviously he has the tools that get you excited because he's unless you're Kyle fast, as unbelievably fast he.
Could be fast.
He could be faster, but he's pretty fast, dynamic when he has the ball right, like tied to Pat Mahomes, like all the things that we were like, Okay, this could really work, but they didn't use him as like a true NFL wide receiver. And then you have the whole like changing of target competition all year. Like Rashei Rice was there, he was kind of just the gadgety role player.
Okay, Rashi Rice is gone. We need you to just step up a little bit.
Okay, here comes DeAndre Hopkins, Like we need you to take a step back again. Oh wait, down the stretch, you're emerging as like an actual wide receiver. So, like you said, his role in the offense was up and down all year, and you finally saw down the stretch he kind of was like really part of the game plan. I mean over the last what five six weeks? Oh, those targets targeted at the same rate as Travis Kelce. Both those guys average eight point six targets per game. He actually led the team in first ree target share from week thirteen on. So you did see I think if you were worried early on, you saw what you wanted to see down the stretch to say, Okay, we've got a second chance here in your two to really take a leap. And like Kyle said, we'll see what happens here in the playoffs for the Chiefs, however long they're in the postseason. But yeah, you know, he does feel a lot like Rashi Rice of last year in just the way that the season went, where it was like like is this guy really that good of a true NFL wide receiver? Didn't matter in fantasy because he was getting so many targets. The change his role made a closer line of scrimmage, more design targets, stuff like that. So yeah, I think Xavier Worthy is still a guy that I would like to have in Dynasty. But no question, like several tiers below the names that we've already talked about in this list.
Yeah for sure. And the the future is so weird for Kansas City of I mean, Rice has to recover from his injury. First of all, Dan, he's gonna have to deal with the law man. You know that a very unfortunate part of talking about football is we frequently have to talk about these types of stories. And that happened the speeding incident in Dallas if I'm not mistaken like that, will that will come to bear and there will be a suspension for it. How heavy is the suspension I do not know. Is it two games? Is four? Is it six? I have I have no idea how serious the NFL will look at his infraction to the to the to the player the personal player conduct policy. And then so you have all that, well, okay, let's say that Rice gets back on the field. Rice is not used as a traditional wide receiver. He's used as an athlete. And then Andy Reid's really really smart of how to figure out how to use it. Can you have you can't have two of those guys, right, I mean you have to have you can have Rashid Rice and then you but you have to have some structure somewhere on the field, and can Worthy succeed in a true structured route tree like that? Then you add on go look at all the near misses of Worthy and Mahomes over the season. It's like if he hits on half of those, Worthy had a great season, a great rookie season, but he didn't. They were not hitting on them. So he is just I think that Worthy to me is a guy he's held value now. I mean, meanwhile, other players behind him have surged past him, So maybe I guess you could say he's lost value compared to the market. But for who he is and what I saw as a possibility, I'm I'm holding here unworthy. If someone wants to trade, even you know, under what true value is them, I'm open to it. As in to go get him.
One point three to three yards per out run is pretty low. That's below fifty percentile of rookie wide receivers last decade. But you know, you have some other names on here, Courtland Sun, JSN, Dante, Moncree, Kyle I had. It's it's my only chance to use this drop ever because but anyway, there's he left a lot of meat on the bone. I think that's my final point. But eighty plus percent of snaps over the last month or so of the season gives you the confidence that they'll figure it out because they have a lot of guys running win sprints, the Justin Watsons or whoever the world. I think they'll figure out a way to use him this next year. Another name I have to bring up is Jayalen McMillan, who the last five weeks of the season, just went on a tear seven touchdowns over his final five games. That's his second most for a rookie wide receiver in their final five games since Randy Moss.
So on how many receptions Kyle.
It's over that final stretch. I think he had like twenty four seven on the season. On the season, thirty seven receptions, eight touchdowns, And I did bring up a list. I'm not here to scare people. If you are the rookie wide receivers over the last decade to have this many touchdowns on fewer than seventy targets Martavis Bryant, Anthony Miller, Gabe Davis, Christian Watson, Johan Dotson, and Jalen McMillan.
At least terrifying.
Basically, basically, if you got a bunch of points on touchdowns, it's scary. It doesn't mean it can't work out. It's just pointing out that he ran really hot of the last part of the season. And then I think my biggest question is like what do they do with Chris Godwin. McMillan was a slot guy only in college and then over this last little bit it was mostly out wide, So I don't know, it's what do you guys think moving forward? Are people going to give too much stock over these final five games?
Go ahead, Mike, go ahead. But okay, I got this, So I'm gonna.
You guys are like, I don't know, I don't know.
It's it's hard to wrap your head around the end of the season, right, like just not sustainable touchdown production. You also caught like over eighty percent of his targets over the last several games, Like for a wide receiver that that just doesn't happen. So if you're using this last end of stretch of the season to say like, oh, this is the type of player he could be moving forward, I think that type of analysis is probably wishful thinking. So now the question is like where is the truth? Is it what he was early on, which was not much at all, or this insane end of stretch season That middle gray area is so tough to try to figure out because when you look at, like, you know, his fantasy production, like over forty percent of that came from touchdowns, that's an unreal mark. And it does feel a lot like John dottson two point zero of like the peripherals were for Macmillan were not very good straight up. But when opportunity was there, he did capitalize, which you have to give him some credit for. So I feel like he's a guy that in the market, I'll probably be trying to trade away if people are excited about this end of season run because it's just not sustainable. But that said, like, I still think he's like a viable flex type option for you to have in Dynasty moving forward. I don't see a super high ceiling for a guy like this, if I'm being honest, But I don't think we should discredit what he did down the stretch. Obviously is very good integral part of the team as they made the playoffs. But yeah, I think Godwin probably comes back, you know, he seems.
Oh, you're on that side.
I just think that he's got a good thing going in Tampa Bay. Like the team could use some cap relief for a guy like that, where maybe they sign him to like a year or two year deals, you know, give him the injury discount, the hometown discount that he just comes back. I can see that happening. But he has tied to Baker Mayfield, right, so like that that carries some value too.
So yeah, I think he's not a sentence I thought would mean anything a couple years ago.
So I think he's like a fine flex type guy to have on your squad, but certainly if your league is overvaluing him, don't be afraid to trade him away.
Yeah you with that, Mike, Yeah, the I mean it's what we want. Like, I mean, he's a round three guy, so you you're not expecting involvement from the get go. And Chris Godwin was having an incredible season. I mean, do not forget how good Chris Godwin was this year because it uh, the when the injury occurred, you know, we're we're kind of your memory is wiped from that from behind that point, so it's easy to forget it. But it's it's a second half breakout, like a pretty pretty strong case for McMillan, and and those touchdowns and the and his catch rate was pretty strong, and the yards per catch is not like it wasn't it's not Dotson, you know where it's like outrageous and you're like, can someone keep going with that? It's it's it's a really strong So he freaks me out in terms of of can he maintain this value and move up and be more integrated into the offense. If Chris Godwin comes back, especially, would be like, uh oh, maybe I missed my chance to trade McMillan, But if I have him, If I had McMillan, I you're you're, you're gonna have to come with a really strong trade offer to get him away from my team. Like I'm, I'm I'll take the bet. I'll take the bet and hold.
Yeah, the team just didn't. I thought they would use him in the slot, like it would just be a one to one Godwin's out, and instead they mostly did Sterling Shepherd Ryan Miller at the very end of the year, and so yeah, maybe they just kind of feel fine of him going outside. And he was productive when he was in the slot. I mean, he knew that role at Washington. But usually I bet against players like that that have crazy efficiency if people have to bank on them growing in them even more the next year. I mean, this is the elusive Gabe Davis tail that people had like, oh he did this, here's the touchdowners production. Not the same player, but uh yeah, I usually bet against those players. All Right, A couple of quick hitters and I'm just gonna ask a question, and there's a lot more conversation about these players. It's going to be had. We have an article that would be out on the website. It's about the rookie wide receiver reviews. So we will have these numbers in front of you. But do we give rom A Duneesa a free pass? He was taking ninth overall and just three touchdowns, just a seventeen percent target share, one point three seven yards per round. He was really bad against Ozone. We can explain away a lot of stuff, So really quickly, do you give him a free pass in dining in terms of his value after one year.
I will close, I'll give it, I'll give a I'll give a bogo here discount this, but this is not a total deal. Yeah, you don't get this for free. I mean you have you have Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. That that's who you're competing with. So I understand it's going to be hard to get involved. Your your offense was a disaster of I mean, Caleb Williams, while he he can, he could still be the guy. He needs a better foundation around him, and we need someone who teaches to throw the freaking ball. Dude, Like you can't just keep dancing in the pocket forever and ever and then take a sack like it one one sack is basically like, oh, just punt the ball because I mean, your drive is is close to dead. So having said all that, though, is you're but you're a top ten NFL pick. You you should be more involved in the office. You should command more targets uh than he did. So that's why it's say, that's why it's the Bogo pass and not and not completely off Scott free without paying anything. So his value went down. I mean, it's it's these other guys. It's like you're telling me, would would you trade Rome for Brian Thomas? Straight up? At this point? Yeh yeah, you probably would. I think definitely. For it's like for lad I would you know, I'm your your draft, your your sunk cost. Is gonna say no, you can can't do that, but it might be the right move. Yeah. I think.
I think Room's tough because so much of it is tied to the offense and to Caleb. I'm not saying like he doesn't have his own role in this situation as far as Rome goes, but a lot of it is tied to Caleb and his struggles and the Bear struggles in general and everything, and kylein I talked about Caleb a ton last week, so if you missed it, go back and check that out. But that's a concern for Rome moving forward, is like, I don't know how good Caleb bus they NFL, Like we all again, we all have these high expectations of like this is gonna work. We've never seen a rookie quarterback dropped into this type of situation, so if it works for him, then sure it'll work for Rome. And obviously that line of thinking, you know, is too simplistic. It didn't work out. So if Caleb can kind of get things sorted out, then I think Rome can have a nice bounce back year two. But that's a question mark, and I honestly don't know what to expect from Caleb moving forward.
So there's a ton of.
Moving pieces that I mean, if you wanted to trade Rome for Lad straight up, I would take Lad. Brian Thomas Junior, no question, all the guys we talked about earlier, not including like McMillan, no question for me. But yeah, I think he took a took a pretty sizable hit.
Here now because there's just the way that this show is like we're we're all about, oh what if, what if this future happened? We're like a we're like a multiverse show, you know, where we try we try to open these doors and look down them of if that's what happened. Let's say Ben Johnson becomes the head coach of the Chicago Bears, which is like, I mean, I don't know what Ben Johnson is thinking. I don't pretend that I do. But Vrabel got the Patriots job. Like, so that's you know, that's one job that Ben Johnson cannot take, and that's one head coach that the Chicago Bears cannot pull in. So the odds have improved at least slightly that Ben Johnson takes that Chicago job. I mean, if if Ben Johnson wants the Chicago job, I have to imagine that's a yes, yes, sir, mister Johnson. Come on in, let's get this going. So we're like, what what is your value of Ben Johnson? What he does to an offense so strong that if he went to Chicago you'd be like, no, okay, I got a hold Rome.
Yeah, I think it would give definitely give a boost. I think what we liked about Rome in college was this bully ball against man coverage, and that's actually what Ben Johnson's scheme and golf was really good. Caleb was not so good against man schemes this past year. But I just worry about players like this that their trump cart in college is I can beat you physically, and I can beat you in the balls in the air, and those are there's some seasons where Roman dun't say could have ten touchdowns, but you're gonna have seasons like this seven thirty four and three where they just don't work. And so there's just so many variables.
Do you have other historical comps in front of you, Kyle, I don't know if you have that, I can look, yeah, just of like who first round guys you know that are putting up numbers like that, Like let's you know, just to that this is a comparison within the class, right, say Marv put up those numbers if Rome was picked what ninth overall? Yes, I mean it's just not that far away from Marvin Harrison. If Marvin Harrison put up the numbers that Rome with Dunes put up this year, it would not be Oh, we got a hold on we would be freaking out.
Yeah, the wide receiver. First round wide receivers that put up similar numbers here, Brandon Ayuk, DJ Moore in their rookie year. Calvin Ridley put up similar yardage, but he had ten touchdowns as a rookie. So it kind of just comes down to what do you think about Caleb And I don't know that answer because I don't know who his play caller is because you had what it felt like five play callers this year and they couldn't figure it out. So I think Rome is a I'm gonna wait and see. I'm not gonna go trade for him, but I'm certainly not gonna trade him at you know, seventy five cents on the dollar of whatever you paid with him. So but I think Ben Johnson would be really, really fun just because he knows the division and yeah, knows how to get the best out of fifty to fifty deep ball guys like Jamison Williams. So all right, I'm gonna give you a couple more here. Put these three in order because they were drafted in order in the NFL draft. Okay, Ricky Piersall's draft the end of the first round thirty first overall. Okay, Wegett was that thirty second overall and Kean Coleman was the first pick of the second round. Put those in order in who you'd want for Dynasty moving forward.
Uh, Pearsaw's at the top for me. Of it took I mean it took him a while to get integrated. And this is a projection of the forty nine ers, Like I don't think Debo's on this team moving forward, and they for that offense to like Brandon Ayuk doesn't scare me in terms of this offense needs those players to function, so like Pearsall will still get his. I feel like despite the improvements and my my love and hope that Bryce Young succeeds, what I saw from leget wasn't it wasn't enough. You know, we we were all we were all cautiously optimistic on the get knowing like the profile of this guy does not work. Drafting him in the first was wild, and I think Jason said it best of it's not gonna work. I'm gonna bet on it, but don't listen to me, do not follow me. It was because we just loved the tape so much, but the the analytics, the profile of of Leget. Now combine that with what I saw where like I mean, as soon as Adam theeling was back, Adam Feen was the dude you had. You had Cocher showing out, uh, and then Keyon Coleman. Maybe he still made me out. I'll take Coleman over over the Get, but even him, what what I saw as a rookie kind of con earn my priors of I didn't love Keyon Coleman. I loved the situation that he was dropped into, didn't love the prospect. And so it's kind of that that's working out more of how I thought it could. And Pearsall is is this. He still represents a more unknown ceiling to me, and I think I think it's floor is fine. I do think that Pearsall will have a safe floor but could have upside where the other two guys I'm already ready to kind of cap who they will be for fantasy football. I agree. I think I would have it Pearsall Coleman logette.
Yeah, I think I agree with you in terms of just who's going to earn the most targets is Pearsall. I do think Coleman has in his bag to have one of those Mike Williams type seasons where he yeah, that's fair. It's like nine hundred and ten touchdowns. And it's because he's the dude with Josh Allen that I'm I'm keeping the light on. But I'm not thinking about him as anything more than flex for dynasty where it's like you can get some wide receiver two output just based on how the team shaken out. I mean, Deebo's basically got one more year they I mean, he's gonna probably be on the team based on his contract, but who knows what an offseason looks like. They could change things, all right. Last question here, and this is a sad one, but it's simple. Can these two players return from the grave? And it's Jalen Polk and Adam I. Mitchell and I mentioned earlier. Jalen Polk basically put together the worst season of any player drafted over the last decade in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. I mean, the worst, worst for yards pro out run. He had the worst PFF grade of any wide receiver this year, worst catch right, worst yards after catch. It was so bad that nobody returns from the grave. Here, Adam II Mitchell had the weirdest season ever because he was targeted on twenty seven percent of his routes and basically did nothing. And him and Anthony Richardson are not on the same page of anything. They didn't read the same playbook. So he's this year's Dontavian Wicks. That was my joke at the end of the year. It's like, he's open, but he can't catch the ball. Are you giving these guys? Are you leaving the light on for these guys? Because Polk I'm out. I just there's no chance. I don't want any part of him. I don't have him, but I wouldn't want any part of him.
The case for Polk coming into the season, which I was, I was very much, very much in on it because of where the price became for Jalen Polk, Like this was a second round in the second round. This was a I got him in the third, but this was like a high second round NFL draft pick. Draft capital still remains like the go to metric, As lame and boring as it sounds, it just it is that important. So it was, okay, let's take a chance here. If Drake may hits and this is their future number one guy, Like, your your risk versus what you're paying is it's all upside. Well, the downside came calling and your penny stocks have been thrown into the garbage because I dude, I don't know how you recover from this. I mean, yeah, it's Mike Rabel. It's a new coaching staff, and he's kind of okay, we're gonna we'll we'll, we'll clear the slate and we'll start over anew But how do you not look at what he did last year? The team desperately needing wide receivers, just they need him in the worst possible way, and you can't get on the field and get targets. Brother, it Yeah, that's the This is a this is a sky more situation. Punt him off the off the bridge here. I mean, if if I'm on my team, I'm I'm making some other trade now I'm just sliding them in there just to just to put him on somebody else's can.
Ask for this. Hey no, no, no, but I'll give him.
To he's free. Yeah, yeah, get like we got we we agreed on the deal. Why are you adding play? No? No, no, I just I really want to make sure you you feel good about this, So I'm just gonna send him over.
Yeah, nothing to say about Paulka. Guys like this just don't come back. This is this is the Jonathan Mingo type situation at truly horrendous rookie season. So yeah, get whatever whatever you can for him. If it's a late third, a fourth, do it. Just take a dart elsewhere. Aidie Mitchell's man like, he had like a nice end of the preseason kind of stretch where it was like, Okay, he's flashing a little bit on the field, like maybe he can get there and do something.
Credit to Alec Pierce.
Man Like, when I was like projecting Adie Mitchell, I was like, there's no chance Alek Pierce is going to keep his job over this super explosive, talented rookie.
Right. And Alec Pearce Cardi, Alec Peerce just did it like he's been training for this moment. Guys, he's so fit.
He just he didn't give up his job, which you know, maybe that's a knock on Aidie Mitchell. No disrespect to Alec Pierce, but like part of the bullish bet on Aidie Mitchell if you were in that camp, was like he only asked to overtake Alec Pearce to go on the field, and he couldn't really do that. So this is a guy that in college, if you're a caall like his peripheral number weren't very good, couldn't earn targets at a super high level. But a lot of people were like, when you watch him play, he's very very good in his talented and he shows up for these big, you know, bowl games in college football playoff games. And I was lower on Ed Mitchell in general. So now you add in the rookie season, plus Anthony Richardson showed zero progress as a passer, It's like, man, you really have to have a locko right here for Adie Mitchell. So I think I'm pretty much out on both these guys.
And you have the Josh Downs is a good play. Yeah, he's an electric wide receiver and who has a different role than Adie Mitchell. Just saying like he's on the field. Alec Pierce seems to have found favor with his coaches and with his quarterback. I think he's on the field. Michael Pittman was playing with what like a broken back or something, you know, the entirety of the year. Remember Michael Pittman was going to get put on season ending IR in the middle of the season and all of a sudden Dog and all of a sudden that changed, and he played through it. He was still hurt for reels, and this is these are the people you're competing with. And you know, with Josh Downs being hurt and Michael Pittman being hurt, still didn't really establish yourself as hey, coach, I need to get some reps or I need to get the ball. So I think I'm not out out on Ady Mitchell, but pretty close. I would have no problem trading him away.
I think it's a good exercise to look at certain players, look at the team they're in, and just say, maybe they're just on the wrong team, because I think there is a multiverse where he actually could work. Yes, And the same thing like, I don't think sky Moore was just the worst player that ever existed. He went to a team where he was never going to see crazy volume. That's kind of what he needed to keep going. And so in Dynasty you can look at a player and just say like, oh, I want this to work so bad. It's like with Anthony Richardson. You look at all the metrics in terms of like off target rate everything else, he's pretty much at the bottom him or dtr at everything And eventually if those deep balls don't hit, then it's just a terrible offense. It's super inefficient, and if Jonathan Taylor doesn't rescue them, it's it's bad. Maybe he's just on the wrong team, So if there's an injury, sure he could play the Alec Pierce roll. But I think at the end of the day, he's just in the wrong situation and you kind of have to just live with that. Like if he was in Keyon Coleman situation, I think we'd be like, Okay, yeah, it was about I could see this working out, but this is just not a situation where you want to invest. So yeah, it's not saying cut him, but you can't cut him.
The Colts pass catchers. I mean, do we get do the Colts pull the plug after one more year of Richardson or does Richardson get two more? I think this is where do we see him more year? Do you see the insane Josh Allen turned around for Anthony Richardson. I mean, we don't, but gotta at least leave leave a you know, a couple of percentile chants of of something crazy happening. But that's like, yeah, for the next year. At least Colt's pass gutters are like a second flex cross your fingers and pray and you get a huge game or you can get absolutely nothing. That it is that is such a brutal situation for fantasy football because those are you know, I think Pittman is a really really good wide receiver. He's not an he's not a Jamar Chase guy. That's fine, but he's a really good wide receiver. Josh Downs is a really good wide receiver. Apparently Alec Pierce's might be better than we were giving him credit for. But so but these guys are just their their toasts.
My new offseason goal is to find a stat for Anthony Richardson that's good, that's helpful as a passer, that's not just he has a very high aid hot that's that's the only thing that's literally you can just say he has a high September.
Kyle's like every I'm still looking guys one of these days off find I.
Mean, because I'm trying, because what is it?
I mean, he he he's supposed to be giving us, you know, just like absurd rushing yards, and the yards are good. He's five hundred rushing yards in uh, basically ten games because he got knocked out of the one. So but but when we're not getting anything out of the passing game, we need we need to putting up hondos man, we need to just a fields this thing for fantasy.
It's like this can work, this can still work for the NFL. I think it's very clear that he he is always going to be behind the eight ball when it comes to fitting balls in tight windows, like he just can't do it. And like against man coverage, he was so bad, like so bad that teams just kind of said, like, let's keep a spy on him, and I dare you, I dare you to, you know, because he has guys that can get open. We know downs can get open in one on one situations. They're just little.
Dude, it's fantasy fantasy football. Got me again, man of the fantasy football, Got me again. I was very public of anti trade lance before the NFL Draft.
Yeah, and it's so funny that people think of you as the pro tray Lance. Yeah, I'm very anti in the scouting.
Yeah, saying like it's not going to work now for fantasy. Sure, I'm gonna try and squeeze a couple top tier years out of him for fantasy, but it's not gonna work.
It.
Richardson was the same thing, but this will not work. You can't go from what he is doing at the college level as a passer and go pro. And and you you're that with no experience. I mean both him and Trey Lance just no experience. And then and then these teams go all in with the highest equity draft pick they can go with, and it's I gotta I gotta stop. I guess I know what to do.
I know how we can help Mike. This all in the show bets you and I. There's two versions of Mike, you know. There's you know, one on one shoulder one and the other there's the fantasy hit man that's ready to just go for it just because he's see he knows what fantasy is about. Now there's off season Mike that with his analytical eyes can actually see things and go I don't think this is gonna work. We have to remind him. We have to make sure play the clips back for Mike, because you say this won't work in the NFL. I didn't like this film.
We'll have it, flip it all off season, you know, now through late July, and then as soon as we get on the show, or on the main show, Mike starts talking about like I could I could see it, man, I could see it. The upsides there. We'll just we'll make a full montage and we'll send it to Mike and save his redraft season.
I need I need someone one of the producers to just stand off camera the whole show with a with a water spritzer bottle going against That's my my actual evaluation of the player. But for fantasy that just stop it, Mike, stop it.
I realized I just created an off season project for you. I can't help myself from not doing this for the three of them. So we'll figure it out anyway. That's gonna do it for this episode. Next week we're gonna be talking Dynasty trade targets and we are going to talk some rock Bowers because well, uh, he's good, very good. We'll see you again next week.
Goodbye, everybody.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. If you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level. Check out the Fantasyfootballers dot com