Scouting the 2024 QB Prospects + Player Comp Conundrums - Dynasty Fantasy Football

Published Feb 14, 2024, 10:00 AM

Rookie QB preview on today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast! Borg & Betz discuss the 2024 QB class combining film evaluation, production profiles, and fantasy football outlooks to give a holistic approach for dynasty managers. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. and others. Plus, Tee Higgins talk before NFL free agency season heats up! Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for February 14th, 2024.

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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a Baller.

Welcome back. It's Wednesday, February fourteenth on the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. I'm your host, Hab, We'reganoni, and I am joined by Matthew Betts.

And that's it, dude. Corporate isn't here. The suits aren't here to keep us in check. You know these head hon shows, Dude, I mean, we can do whatever you want on this show. We got full control today. It's gonna be a lot of fun. I'm excited about this the show. We're gonna talk about the most important position I think in all of sports. But you kind of missed the lead, dude. I mean, it's Valentine's Day and we've been talking about it. Is dynastylovers dot com a thing yet or what you know?

I'm not in charge of that part of our company, and I'm glad i'm not because there's an obscene amount of domain names that over the years the Ballers have, you know, Christmas football dot com. Who could forget a site like Christmas football dot com? And you need to report in this is this live? Is this thing good to go? Still available? Okay, well, yeah, no better time than Valentine's Day to be able to get a site like that for us. So, yes, quarterbacks we're going to talk about. I'm really excited. That's probably my favorite position. You and I will go into the weeds of the top six prospects and talk about them from a fantasy perspective, film perspective. We'll give some comps. We'll also, yeah, I might give a rant or two, and I'll let you join in about what comps are at this point of the year, because whow, there are a lot of comps that people through out there, and some of it's just fun, all right, we like doing it, and other times you're just farting in the wind.

Man.

There's nothing. There is nothing to a comp other than I saw one that Michael Pennox Junior is a comp to Tim Tebow because they're both left handed and there's nothing else similar in their games at all.

I'm just like picturing it like vintage Tebow where he's just like plowing over linebackers and like one of the best running quarterbacks we've seen in that time period, and Michael Penox literally doesn't run at all. So very funny. Yeah, also, Hey, I saw a lot of Tua in his game too. Did you see that?

Man?

I mean uncanny, these two they are just the exact same dude.

That's I mean cade McNown he's every single left handed quarterback that we've ever had in the NFL. And that's the only people we can comp him too. So yeah, it's it's listen, let's just go on the rant. Now, let's just do it. I'm opening up a can because we as people, we like to make connections. We like things to make sense in our brain, and so we're evaluating player a lot of times like okay, well what have I seen at the NFL level that's kind of like this, and how can I use this in my evaluation? Part of that is great and I love doing that. We use that with draft capital all the time, Like when you and I look at our spreadsheets, we say this player was drafted with Day two draft capital. Here's the other players that are also drafted in this ranger. They have the same height and weight or you know, similar college production. Those are all great pieces of the puzzle. The only problem is when you land on a comp you're basically boxing in a player, and people are gonna hear different things last year, Anthony Richardson a lot of Josh Allen. You're getting a lot of Cam Newton. I even use those because that's how you have to describe a player that is just freakishly athletic, but he's kind of a blend of all these things. So I think the point of with comps is not to arrive at one place that there is a place for them, but it does it create almost creates more problems sometimes because you are then looking at Josh Allen and saying, well, look at what he did from Wyoming to his rookie year to then how he progressed to being one of the best quarterbacks in the league and arguably one of the greatest rushing quarterbacks of all time. He's already second all time in quarterback rushing TDS, you know, six years into the league. So there's pros and cons and we hold it lightly, we hold it with an open hand. Is that a good way to look at it? Yeah?

I think so, And I think I mean I echo a lot of what you're saying where it's just like when you do make these player comparisons, it's so like black and white of like this is who I see him being or that's what you'll read, you know, in certain articles and scotting reports and stuff. But like, oftentimes those comps are two really good players in the NFL. I mean Tim t Bow was obviously not. But you see like the best case scenario for a player when you comp them. Usually that's what I see when I read articles and other content. But as we always talk about and kind of just a friendly reminder to everyone listening to the show, being realistic about these prospects is so important, Like most of these guys just not just like these six but just in general. Rookies don't always hit, I mean obviously, right, So I feel like when you comp someone sometimes I feel like people just get too pigeonholed into this seem like who can I cop him to? That's successful in the NFL And you vision in your head when you hear that as a content consumer of like, oh, well that's who he's gonna be, right, But every year players fail and that's really happens. So yeah, I don't like comps. I mean, I don't mind people when they throw out like I see shades of this aspect of that player's game in this guy or you know, stuff like that, Like, I think there's a place for it. But man, I'm with you. I'm not a huge comp guy per se, and I think sometimes like it almost feels forced when you kind of have to put a comp So I'm not a big comp guy, but I get it if people like it.

Now, let us be clear, we will be using those today when we talk about these quarterbacks, and we'll talk about it in the sense of there's shades of this. I like it when people talk about attributes of a player, So we'll talk about Drake May. But it's like you look at him and you go, Okay, there's there's a lot of Justin Herbert in his game, but I would say, like he's ninety percent of Justin Herbert's arm, you know, like if Justin Herberts has probably the best arm and the way that he has his mechanics, the way that he you know, throws from his base, it's awesome. I don't think Drake May is totally that. So I like using percentages. You and I talked about that a lot. Just I'll give you some fun ones from last year. I looked at JSN and I found comps from the biggest websites which I will not name. And here's all the comps that I got, So these are huge websites by the way, Julian Edelman, Cooper Cup, Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Robert Woods, Tyler Boyd, DeAndre Hopkins.

Those are good players.

None of those people, none of them repeated the same comp which I appreciate. Like a lot of time you can start copying, pasting and just kind of seeing like, oh, this is what this player is going to be. But man, it was. It was quite a ride from Robert Woods to Justin Jefferson.

Yeah, a little different.

That's a little different players. So yes, in our Ultimate Draft kit. Plus we just released the twenty twenty four Dynasty Pass and so every single player you can see their production profile, you can see the metrics. I'm looking at our app right now, just scrolling through it. The other day, Andy on the main show was just being a terrible host and on his UdK app while he was hosting the show. But I'm gonna do the same. Yeah, you can just short through anything, sort through our team opportunity, which we'll reference in a second. I could look at the vacated targets for I don't know the Bengals and go, wow, they have the most vacated targets in the NFL this year. So you can get all of that, our rookie mock drafts, all that Ultimate Draftkit dot Com, get in on the lowest price, and if you order by March first, let me tell you this, you will be entered to win a spot in the Listener League. That is something Bets and I have never been a part of. They barred us from it. Corporate said, no, you guys can't get in on that. Well they don't want to lose apparently not, and uh so Listener League spot. It's the lowest possible price. You get a five dollars gift card, a ten dollars gift card, a digital copy of a book that I helped compile, which you know, no better bathroom reading than that. So yeah, make sure you go to Ultimate draft kit dot com. But speaking of opportunity, I was looking at the Bengals and I saw that fifty six percent of their targets are vacated. It's the most in the NFL according to our data. And I wanted to get your opinion, Bets before we talk about these quarterbacks on to Maurice T Higgins. Okay, just turn twenty five, your boy T Higgins. He's a free agent, and he's young for his class. The production has been there on like a per game basis, but in the last three years, I feel like he hasn't played a full season. The numbers haven't quite hit a ceiling. I mean the highest he's finished on a season is wide receiver seventeen back in twenty twenty two, and I wanted to get your gauge of temperature on Higgins. As we enter into free agency season, over the next month, we'll find out a landing spot for T. Higgins. But I tend to be a little bit underwhelmed and not as excited about wherever he's gonna land. So I almost need you to talk me into this. And I'm not here to like he say he's a bad player, but what could I get from a guy who's twenty five is gonna be on a second contract somewhere else. I feel like moving away from Joe Burrow is a negative thing, but I could be wrong.

I think there's two ways to look at it with T. The first is the quarterback play, which you're certainly bringing up, and you know, if you look at who we have as the top teams as far as team opportunity in the Dynasty Pass as part of that UdK plus, which, by the way, dude, the app. I actually kind of forgot about the app truthfully until yesterday and I redownloaded it and I was like, oh my gosh, like it's so slick, it's so clean. I love it, and I think everyone will too. But I was looking in there, and you know, there's obvious teams of like everyone's talking about the Panther's got to get someone to support Bryce Young, right, Like, certainly, if t Higgins leaves Joe Burrow and goes to Bryce Young, that's not great, right obviously, But there is also the other side of it, and you say, well, okay, if he leaves Joe Burrow, he's also leaving Jamar Chase as an opportunity to go be in Alpha somewhere else. And that's kind of the tricky part for T Higgins where I do think that's probably what he needs to have happened for him if you're hoping to unlock a you know, top fifteen, top twelve receiver in Fantasy. As long as Jamar Chase is there doing his thing, and Jamar Chase is healthy, I don't see the path for T Higgins to be a consistent top twelve producer. I think he can still be a rock solid wide receiver two. Certainly we've seen that right the last couple of years Wide receiver seventeen, Wide receiver twenty two in twenty twenty two and twenty one respectively, and just last year. Man, I feel like people are kind of down on Tea, but you know, it was a really rough season just in general for the Bengals. You talk about how they got off to a horrible start with Joe Burrow and mcalf injury. T Higgins himself deal with hamstring injurs, off injuries, off and on. He only played in twelve games, and truthfully, we should really be talking about him as a guy that played like nine games, because there were some games where he came back and they would limit his snap count. There were games where he left early because of injury obviously, so just a complete lost season. But when you zoom out and kind of look at this player, it wasn't that long ago that people were comparing the underlying efficiency metrics of Jamar Chase and T Higgins and saying they're pretty much the same when you look at them on a week to week basis. Specifically last year, T Higgins eleventh in the NFL and EPA per target. He's a good player, man, and I think he's gonna get a ton of money if he does get a multi year deal in free agency. And I've also seen some rumors potentially that he could come back to Sincy if they want to keep their core together on the franchise tag. I'm not sure we'll find that information soon enough, but just a guy that I always want to bet on talent, especially at wide receiver, and I still think he has it.

Yeah, the Bengals have, you know, their top six and cap space available, so there is an opportunity there to franchise him bring it back. I see. The Patriots are another team in our team opportunities, like they're just dying for somebody to be there. The Texans were a team before the season and I was like, oh, I feel like that could be a good landing spot for Tiagains and then they look up like, oh, well we've got an Ego Collins, who's you know on the finally nerve his deal, We've got Tanke Dell. I don't know if it makes sense for them to spend in free agency that way, but it's just hard for me to see things getting better. I feel like it's more of going to be a lateral move for him where he's gonna end up being kind of in that wide receiver fifteen range. He needs to me like one hundred and forty five, one hundred and fifty targets. I think he could do that, just depends on what offense like supports that. So the Patriots, who's you know, who's the quarterbacks at a rookie quarterback. But when I look at dynasty wide receivers, I feel like te Higgins has kind of lived off of this. I'm young, I'm tied to a good quarterback for so long, and it hasn't fully clicked in a season where you said, like this is a dominant player, Like he's been more of a wide receiver too, And so I think I'm just more comfortable thinking about him in that wide receiver I don't know, twenty range in Dynasty rankings and Dynasty startup rankings rather than okay, he's like twelve to fifteen, and you can kind of have this player locked in, Like he's still twenty five, So I think you're going to have at least two seasons of wide receiver two production, which is really good. But if there's someone in your league who've used this guy as he's going to a new landing spot and it's gonna get way better, I would be open to cashing that in and kind of getting a you know, younger player and a pick as opposed to you know, he's going to be twelve hundred and seven or twelve hundred and eight. Like, I feel like it's almost wishful thinking for me. But maybe I'm a little too bearish here.

It's tough to say. I mean, again, we'll know more about how to contextualize these guys after we find out what's happening in your free agency. But again, like there's this misconception that I think everyone wants a wide receiver one in Dynasty obviously, but you just said, like, ah, he could be wide receier fifteen. That's good man. I want that on my Dynasty roster. If I get the wide receiver fifteen to twenty, assuming health and that that's been a big question for T Higgins, you know, for a couple of years. Yeah, I'll take that, And so it's just a matter of I think how you value him relative to your other league mates, which I do see your point. Like if someone says, oh, man, you just got a three year deal. You know we're thirty million to go to fill in the blank, and someone's hyped about that. I certainly can see where it goes south if the quarterback play is not as great, if it's a run heavy scheme, stuff like that. So I'm willing to kind of see that path. But again, I always just go back to talent at wide receiver, and I you think T still has.

It, I'm worried. I was looking at the other teams, like if he goes to the Giants, It's like, oh, that'd be just b a Rex. So I'll give you a couple of names. Who would you rather have? And then we'll get into the quarterback. Would you rather have T Higgins or Drake London in Dynasty?

Oh, Drake London, I would too.

Would you rather have T Higgins or Michael Pittman, who is a little older but in the same free agency class.

I would take Petty City. I think he's to me, he's more likely to be locked into a wide receiver one role rather than T Higgins where I think he could happen. I just don't think it's a definite this C h baby.

Now. I think Higgins this next year has a real ceiling outcome where I think Pitty City's like more comfortably locked into a you know, he's gonna end up wide receiver fifteen and I feel safer there. But I just okay, one more name. This one's really tough. Would you rather have JSN or T Higgins in Dynasty?

Oh? Man, we're gonna have to do. We're gonna have to have like an episode where we talk about second year wide receivers or third year wide receivers and cause you gotta be inter out like you gotta be actionable right now.

Yes, that's a great point, and let's.

Be real, it was not great the rookie year. Tigans does produced three seasons where he's been healthy, and even last year when it was really bad, when he was on the field and he stayed on the field, he showed us he can still play. So I would still take T Higgins.

It's a coin flip for me. And I think your point, when you're saying actionable is it's really easy just to look at your roster and go, okay, well I drafted this player last year early in my rookie draft. I need to wait another year. There is a slipping slope. For instance, Traylon Burks. You probably took him at the one oh, I don't know, six, one o, seven, whatever you did in your draft, and through two years like it's it's not good. The re arts per out run numbers are actually still like he had. He's on life support, but like there's something there, So do you move on? And what's the opportunity costs? What can you get in return? With JSN? I think it's still a hold and you still wait. But yeah, this is one of those times in the offseason you really need to do some deep diggings. So maybe we'll do an off season episode on young wide receivers and where to cut bait. But let's move forward with these rookie quarterbacks. Hi, rookie, Welcome to the NFL. Last week we talked about the running backs. We'll talk about the quarterbacks this week and then get into the wide receivers. And man, there are a ton of wide receivers. So we got some great episodes, but quarterback is my favorite position to evaluate for the NFL. I won't say that I'm perfect. I won't say that. You know, there's players that I've just colossally missed on, but I do think for fantasy purposes, we can look at these guys from a couple of different lenses. So we'll be talking about their film, We'll be talking about, Hey, here's what rookie quarterbacks who are draft in the first round, Here's what they've done, and here's how this player compares. Talk about just like what we look for, like what I like, and what actually translates to the pros. So one of my biggest hang ups for any quarterback is he old? Is he an old dude? And there's a couple of dudes in this class that you're like, ah, well, maybe it's the reason why they're slipping on in mock draft boards. But specifically, when you look at film, and we'll talk about six players, what are a couple of the check boxes that you look for.

Yeah, I think you can get lost looking for these insane wow plays, which don't get me wrong, like they're really fun to see on tape. But one of the things that I can come back to is kind of like when I think about how players succeed in the NFL, especially at quarterback, it's a lot of it comes down to the consistent stuff down in and down out, being able to deliver the ball in the intermity air of the field, quick decision making, decisive ability to process and move on to a second read. Those kind of things. They're underrated and we don't love them. They're not sexy for fantasy, but keeps a guy as a starting caliber player in the NFL, and that's what you need for long term dynasty value. For these guys, I'm always hesitant when like, the best thing about a player, especially at quarterback, is like, this guy's deep ball is sick, man, how often are they throwing that ball in an actual NFL game?

Twice?

Three times? Maybe? Like that's not their only thing. And I'm not saying I don't want that, of course I do, but that I think can get a little overrated to me. I definitely want to see the decision making stuff. I think it goes a very long way in determining a player's longevity in the league. The other thing that I care a lot about when I watch these guys is when things break down, What do they do right? Like, it's awesome to be able to operate from a clean pocket, but in the NFL, chaos happens. You don't always go to a situation where the off offensive line is great. Are they smart and decisive with throwing the ball away? Can they tuck it and run when they have to? Can they avoid sacks? That's kind of been a pretty sticky metric to look at moving forward year every year. So those are a couple of things that I look at on top of the arm talent.

Yeah, the intermediate throws is my favorite thing. You know, I saw it a lot of the time by just saying like can they slay in this area where you can move the chains? If it's third and long, that matters a lot if you can work through your progressions. If I see a player it's like, okay, well I only saw first reads or I only saw you know a lot of yardage from screens and RPOs. That's that's different than how it works in the NFL. And it's not an apples to apples conversation. Right when we look at college players in a college system, it's very different in the NFL. And I think the deep ball conversation makes a lot of sense in today's NFL, where seven percent of the time you're seeing a zone coverage look and a lot of times just two deep safeties where you can't do that as much. We just saw in the Super Bowl Patrick Mahomes didn't really have too many plays that were deep. They were just carving them up underneath. So we'll look at all those things. We'll talk about the breakout age. We want it to be around twenty. We'll talk about the recruiting. I went back and looked at every single class, and boy did I you know, scroll through some names, but I found our boy, Tray Lance you know, back in the year is forty six overall in his recruiting ranks. Maybe he is something.

Oh I hope the Trei Lance bit never dies.

By the way, No, it never will. As long as he stays alive. He shows up in all my data sets. It's like, okay, what does this guy do in year three? Oh? Well, I can't really add anything to it. Nothing happened on the field. So recruiting is in everything. The level of competition does matter, So like are they playing against Power five schools? And then I'll give you a couple of sticky stats that really do translate to the pros, and that is completion percentage, but more importantly completion percentage over expectation as something we've talked about a lot. We've talked about it on DFS and betting podcast. But what that does just tell you, like what is their yards per attempt? Like the best quarterbacks in the NFL, their yards per attempt are going to be up because they're not just checking it down like Bryce Young did this past year. And Mike Leach, the great coach, former coach says, you can get a short stop and teach him to play quarterback easier, then you can make some accurate It's like such a great quote because Josh Allen is the outlier of quarterbacks who were really, really, really bad in terms of completetion percentage in college and then we're able to change the course. In the NFL, it just usually doesn't happen. So if you're not completing a lot of passes in college where majority of the people aren't going in the NFL, it's probably not going to work for you at the next level.

Yeah, that's a really good way to say, and I actually really like that quote. Because it does make a ton of sense intuitively that you know, and this is kind of this goes to a lot of things in football, but also just in general, like when someone shows you kind of who they are and how they operate, there's a good chance that's that's who they are, right. And yes, players improve year every year, things change when they get the NFL as far as coaching weapons, they have that sort of thing. But like you said, the Josh Allen type transformations are not the norm, and in fact, we should not expect them to happen. In most years, they're in fact unlikely to happen. So yeah, I think a lot of that does make a ton of sense when you're talking about out all.

Right, and we're doing all of that to actually translate it to fantasy. And I looked at every single quarterback who was taken the first round of the NFL draft what they do for fantasy Now, about sixty six percent of them ended up being a quarterback one within two years, which is really good, Like, that's great. There also are a lot of cases of players where you're like, oh, they were done. It was very clear from the get go that Zach Wilson wasn't gonna work that Trey Lance wasn't gonna work. Daniel Jones took a bunch of years to develop, Josh Rosen was just done, Mac Jones, Dwayne Haskins, can he Pickett? Johnny Manziel, your boy, Paxton Lynch. I mean, there are just so many different names that although they were taken early on for Fantasy, it was very clear that there was a line in the sand. This player wasn't gonna work out. So we're gonna talk about this the film the College production, and then asked does it translate to fantasy after this quick break, We're gonna start this thing off with Caleb Williams of USC. We're going to organize these by the ballers consensus ranks, which are in the Dynasty Pass. So Caleb Williams is kind of seen as the consensus. You and I talk about this a lot, but in the betting world, he's at you know, minus nine hundred, which basically says, you know, ninety percent chance likely this guy is going to be the number one overall pick, and it makes a lot of sense. We'll talk to the production, but he's a five star recruit, number two in his class in twenty twenty one, he followed Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma to usc His breakout age is what you want to see, eighteen point eight, So super young, super productive, not as big as I think people realize, Like he's only six to one, and we'll see what he actually measures in. But somewhere between sixty one and sixty two is not this massive prospect, not that you need to be six five, but a little shorter than what we'd usually see from a prototypical quarterback one for fantasy. But I think where I want to start the conversation with Caleb Williams is twenty twenty two versus twenty twenty three, and twenty twenty two he won the Heisman. Twenty twenty three took a step back from a statistical standpoint, So how are you, you know, handling that just knowing we got two different seasons.

Yeah, I think that is a good place to start, because, like when you watch him too and you look at not just the numbers, but actually watch him play. In twenty twenty two, this guy was just unreal, like nothing could go wrong, is what it seemed like. And in twenty twenty three you saw I think a lot more like turnover worthy type plays. You saw a lot higher sack right, You saw him really have I think, much more chaos in his game, which some oftimes he invites with how he plays, and that can be good or bad depending on the situation. But I think in twenty twenty two it was like, this guy is a generational, you know prospect, He's insane. He is, no doubt the number one pick. And then in twenty twenty three you kind of saw him take a little step back. Now, there's still enough cumulatively in his college profile that I still think he should be the number one pick. I still think he should be the number one rookie quarterback pick. But you can't argue that in twenty twenty three it was not as pretty as it was in twenty twenty two, no doubt about it.

Yeah, how he responds to pressure is kind of like the best litmus test for Caleb Williams because him creating out of chaos, out of like, you know, under pressure is his trump card. Like he's incredible at being able to maneuver the pocket, throw downfield, or pick up extra yards on the ground. It's one of those things that I have a hard time when I evaluate quarterbacks because you can look at that and go, wow, you know this is you know, everyone's giving him a homes comp that works until it doesn't work. And I think in twenty twenty three you saw the downside of a player that has won over the last couple of years based on just creating and avoiding pressure. You know. His three point six percent turnover worthy play rate was tied for ninety fifth in the league. According to PFF. His time to throw is usually like above three, so it is at three point one six average seconds per throw. We usually like to look for a player that's just below two, you know, in the two sevens, because in the NFL, you're not gonna have time to dance around. And so some of my notes when I look at the game film is he has good instincts as a runner. He's subtle, but he's willing to hold onto the ball and that is both a blessing and a curse. It's a blessing because he can stay in and fight, and that is awesome, like you want that for your quarterback to stay in there to see, you know, when the play breaks down. But it's a curse because you see some turnovers because of it. So I'm not gonna give a positive or negment. I'm gonna say it's a neutral thing sometimes for him, where it's like you can see the upside case of him escaping pressure and the other side is dude, like throw the ball away. So I don't know, Like I I just want to be a little bit firm that there are issues of if your trump card is escaping pressure.

Yeah, it's I think it's a great way to say it is, like it's great. And also at sometimes you're like, let's just live for second and ten man, like it's okay, it's okay to throw it away. But when it works, it's special. It's it's a very rare thing where he is. He's very smart as a scrambler. He's really good as a scrambler. But also his ability to extend plays and create the wow moments, to me are unmatched in this class. So that and that's why I think NFL scouts are so infatuated with him, is like, if it works, it's gonna work and be a huge hit. But when you get to the NFL level of competition gets harder, you don't have that as much time. You need to be more decisive and so I think that's a good way to just frame it up, like, look, this is the upside case, and it can work and it can be incredible. But man, he took a ton of sacks. Man among the big six that we're gonna talk about today in this class, his pressure to sack ratio last year was the worst over twenty pc. It's a really high number. He's got to clean that up in the next level. It doesn't work in the NFL, So if he can get the right coaching staff, that kind of helps him mold that risk taking with being measured in it and smart about it. He does have a massive ceiling and the arm talent's great. Like I said, his scrambling ability is really good. His early production is awesome. Only played three years in college, which is rare. In this class we're gonna talk about Michael Pennox and Bo Nicks who been around in college football for forever. He he has it. So, I mean, there's tons of upside, But like I said, there's a couple things I definitely want to see him clean up. The other thing to me when I watch him scramble, dude, pull the ball in man. I mean there's so many plays where it's like Michael vick ESQ where he's like running with it still holding as if he's throwing, but he's still ten years down the field and it's away from his body. Like that stuff is quite risky, but when we're talking fantasy, the ceiling is there. I certainly see it. He's a really strong prospect.

Yeah, when you add in the potential draft capital one oh one to you know, one or two three somewhere around there, it bodes really well for him being you know, having a high floor within the first two years of hitting seventeen plus Fantasy points per game. That's what I kind of use as a measure. If you can hit that in the first two years, you're gonna be fine in the NFL. I did want to just throw out man. When I watch his game film, he throws a lot of jump passes, which, like you know, Mahomes does that. Like there it can work. But it's like for a player that like when you think of his name and you think of everything is like this imposing player. It's like a lot of those are you know, not needed sometimes and a lot of them are to wide open wide receivers against really weak pack twelve secondaries so I just want to note that, like some of the competition, and I'll note this with bo Nix, you know and Pennix, like just some of those games are just you know, freebies. So the Notre Dame game is probably his worst tape, where he threw three I and t's. There are a lot of big developing plays which I just don't think in the NFL you're gonna be able to roll out and just you know, fart around for five seconds just doesn't work. But one thing he's good at, it's my last note is the back shoulder throw. You can tell that they've practiced that a lot. In the Washington game they lost, but man like he was ready to say, like okay, we're going to go after that. He did it twice in a row with Brendan Rice, where he's like, I'm going to go back shoulder. I'm gonna go back shoulder again. And that's something that you know, the best quarterbacks in the league, they know how to do that. So everything that we're looking at, everything compwise says this is you know, gonna be a legit fantasy performer. I think he's more of a bigger Kyler Murray than he is Patrick Mahomes, but I don't know any other thoughts on Williams.

I mean, I think we I want to make sure that we're being clear because we I think you and I both tend to be a little bit harder on these projects, just to be realistic with people and say, like, no one, there's no perfect prospect. I mean, straight up, that's just how it is. But a lot of shows just give you all the good and it's like, well, how can this go wrong?

Right?

And that's what we're highlighting. But I just want to take a step back and say, like, this dude is good, and like the arm talent is awesome. As I mentioned, I know a lot of people love his ability to throw from different armingles, which does work, but there's also times where kind of leads to him like selling the ball a couple of times. So I think if he just cleans up like that little piece of it, gets the ball out a little quicker, is more decisive with the I'm going to tuck it and run now versus trying to extend it and then later tuck it and run, because I don't think that'll work in the NFL. Like I see a path where this guy becomes a stud for sure. Is he your top quarterback in the class?

Yeah, he's He's still the top quarterback. And I think I agree for NFL standards and Fantasy standards. And it's okay to have two different lists people because it translates differently. But the combination here the draft capital and what he specially, Yeah, Drake may is number two in our rookie ranks. Andy has Am at three, Jason two, Mike three, five star recruit coming out of Charlotte. I like his tape a lot, man, I just I really really like it. Twenty one and a half years old, six ' four. He also has to learn a new system in twenty twenty three, where their offensive coordinator went from Phil Longo to Chip Lindsay. And so I like seeing a player that when they're, you know, given a change in circumstance, like he still performed really well. You know, some of the numbers dipped a little bit, but he has an arm And I said earlier, I think it's like ninety percent of Justin Herbert is what I would liken it too. And man, when he moves to the left, it's not an issue. And I love seeing that where like you know usually you talk I'll talk about McCarthy later, Like he can move to the right and the throws are on you know, on point. But when you can move the left as a right handed thrower and it just looks like, oh, you're making plays, I love it. I think he has really good touch too, even on short area stuff. So to me, it's like so far as just a pocket passer, he can make almost every single throw. But then when you add in the rushing ability and decisiveness as a runner, like, there's a lot to like with Drake May.

Yeah, I think underrated as runner. You know, we're gonna talk about Jade Daniels in a second. Everyone knows that. We talked about Caleb Williams as a runner. Everyone knows that. And I think a lot of people when you see six four two twenty five, you think of like traditional big quarterback in the pocket, But man, he can be used as a design runner. He can scramble. Just to highlight kind of where he ranks in scramble rate in their final college season this year obviously for him compared to like the last year's class, like in last couple of years, justin fields nine point one percent. Jayden Daniels seven point two percent, Drake May five point six percent, and then Anthony Richardson in college five point one percent. So you have a guy who does have a sneaky I think upside as a rusher depending on how he's used in the pros. But there's a lot to like with him. I will say, if I am kind of talking about nitpicking his game, I think there were times where he definitely struggled when the first read wasn't there. Like to me, I don't see him as an elite processor yet. I think he certainly could get there if he kind of develops over time. But there were times where, like Man, when the first read is open and he knows it's man coverage, he can hit his three step drop and deliver a dime. But when he has to kind of stop process, Okay, who's the next read? I think complex coverages kind of make him lost a little bit, and that's going to change as he develops as a quarterback obviously, but that is one area where I think he needs to improve. I do agree though, the kind of ability for him to still deliver an accurate ball, whether it's with touch or with power off. You know, an unsteady platform, meaning like drifting to the left, kind of fading off a back foot. Stuff like that is why people are so excited about him from his arm talent perspective. So I do see it obviously pretty pretty awesome throws on tape that you'll you'll watch him and you'll just say, wow, that was that was incredible.

Yeah, the decision making is probably the I wouldn't even call it a red flag. It's just something you got to improve where he is willing to take risks. I mean, I was watching the NC State game, which is the final game of the year, and they were down a ton early and it's just one of those things where it's just like they were they just had to battle back. And so he's willing to take risks, and so there was some turnovers in the game. Both of his iron t's in that game were straight drops from his wide receivers. So those those kind of stinks, but competitive a man. The Duke film was a really fun game if you want to go on YouTube and just search that one double overtime game where he you know, they just stayed in it the whole time. I feel like they asked him to do short area stuff, and then he could also hit the go route with tes Walker some of these other guys that you know are in the classes here. So it's just a lot to like he's the favorite right now to go number two overall, and I think his floor, you know, is probably five, like somewhere in that range if a team trades up, but you know, Washington is kind of the running joke. They have Sam Howell, they can get Drake May and just kind of move on. That would be interesting. But I I like that their rushing ability. It's not just like he piled on some numbers in some system where he's you know, you know, a crappy team. No, this is a good college program that has produced college level quarterbacks, even if not all of them are great. And I think he's gonna be able to add you know, twenty yards a game on the ground. I'm not saying he's like, you know, a huge rusher, but at the end of the year that adds up and you end up getting around three hundred yards. That's awesome for fantasy. So with a draft capital, I think the low end comp is that he's Sam Darnald, but I think that he's more accomplished in college than Sam Darnald was, who's taken third overall. So any last thoughts on May I don't.

Think there's too much to add. I do agree with just to kind of drive home in the final point here. To me, the rushing is just kind of something else I want to really file away when I remember this guy when I think about him in rookie drafts, like it certainly is there. And you mentioned, yeah, twenty yards a game, twenty five yards a game, thirty yards a game, something like that where you could see the end of the season. You look back and you're like, WHOA, four hundred yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Yes, we need that to be a top twelve guy in fantasy us. Your an outlier touchdown thrower, of course, but that stuff does go a very long way, and he certainly has it. So yeah, I like him a lot. Where are you with him as far as like number two behind Caleb Williams. Do you have Daniels ahead for fantasy? Where are you at there?

I think, And that'll lead us into Daniels X. I have Daniels ahead of him for fantasy purposes. I do too, But I'm also I'm also very willing to say that it is, you know, mid February, and we'll learn a lot. So you know, the best part is nobody is hopefully doing their fantasy draft right now for their dynasty league. Please don't do that people. I don't know if your league does it, but like I don't like people that do startup drafts right now where you don't even know the landing spot for these rookies. Just like, let's wait. But it seems like Daniel's rushing ability is one of the few cheat codes that you could have available to you, and that's hard for me to pass up. In our first rookie mock draft, in a one quarterback one, I took him it at the one ten, which I felt like, you know what, I didn't love the running backs on the board wide receivers. I feel like the elite ones were gone. And he's one of those players that it's hard for him to be pegged as a comp like a lot of people want to say Lamar, but he's He's a more accomplished passer like Lamar had the stats to back it up, but in terms of just really clean, you know throws like Daniel's slayed this past year. Deep throws So I think the hardest thing for me with Daniels is I feel like we should be talking about a different guy that was at Arizona State. Like it's almost like a different prospect instead of Jaden. It's just just a different dude. So I don't know how to reconcile that. So how do you how do you look at Arizona State stuff and then move to this and go, Okay, well, this guy just won the Heisman and broke a ton of records.

Dude. It's wild watching the Arizona State tape and then comparing it to twenty twenty two and specifically twenty twenty three, you literally like watch him and you're like, this cannot be the same player, Like this is not the same human being because at Arizona State, wildly inaccurate, terrible decision making, just airmailing throws left and right, truthfully not good. And then he gets to LSU in twenty twenty two and you're like, oh, okay, yeah, I see some things on tape, some stuff that looks promising, and we'll see what he does in twenty twenty three. And then this last year massive step forward as far as a player, not only just decision making, but rushing ability, decisiveness, accuracy, quick release. Again, not the same player as he was a couple of years ago at Arizona State. So I like to see that, like I like to see players when they can develop year over year every year. The issue is that it kind of took a while to get there, right, Like it took five college seasons to get to where he is today, and that to me is kind of the knock overall on his profile of Jaden Daniels is that he is a little bit older. Again, it's not the only data point that we should care about, but it is a data point. And when you compare him to someone like Call Williams, who broke out early and also is super young for a first round quarterback, like, it's a knock on Daniels, no doubt about it. But man, the growth he showed as a player year over year pretty eigeh opening.

Yeah, he was the number one dual threat quarterback back in the twenty nineteen class, so there is some pedigree. He didn't just come out of nowhere. His his build is unique. I mentioned that like six four two ten, it's hard to find a tall, slender running quarterback Lamar is the only one that you kind of can look at, and just to give you some perspective of his rushing ability, I looked at every single first round quarterback since nineteen ninety five, okay, people, long time ago, all the way back to Steve mcnaerdays, and I looked at every college quarterback that surpassed eighteen plus percent of their team's rushing yardage. So that's a big deal. I mean, Lamar his final season at Louisville, had fifty zero point one percent of the team's rushing yards. His like video game number stuff. Johnny Manzel, who I know you're you're a huge fan, bets. I know you really wanted him to be a thing forty five percent. Next on the list, though, is Jaden Daniels. So since nineteen ninety five, he is the third highest rushing yarded share at forty three percent. So that's pretty crazy production when you put that in context, I mean it's better than Cam Newton, RG three, Deshaun Watson, Vince Young, Tim Tebow, I mean all these other names, Kyler Murray. So from a raw statistical standpoint, it's hard to argue against this past season. I mean, he's set the all time NCAA record for average yards per attempt at thirteen point six. It's I mean adjusted yards per attempt. The deep plays, they happened over and over and over again. We haven't seen a season like that since Burrow also at LSU. But you mentioned this earlier. The deep plays are really cool for the tape, and they're really cool when you go to the combine and you get Malik Willis throwing this bomb or Zach Wilson throwing a bomb. Just tend to say that's more of like a bonus than using that as like the main talking point for a player.

Yep. Definitely agree on that that it is it's nice to have. I mean, like if you're gonna give me a choice to have it or not, like I want it. But you get worried when that's like the player's calling card. I personally don't think that is his only calling card. I mean, obviously the rushing as you highlighted, just there's no one in this class to me that has the ceiling as a runner for fantasy that we care about that Jayden Daniels has and that's why I take him over Drake May. And I mentioned Drake May is going to be I think, a pretty good runner. But if you're talking about a quarterback that you can take in your fantasy rookie drafts and develop into, you know, one of these top six or seven running quarterbacks that we have in our game, to me, it's Jade Daniels. Really good, really explosive, really quick with his acceleration. When he does decide to tuck it and run. He's not like a shifty runner, Like he's not like Lamar where he can you know, stop and go and he's slippery in space like, he's not that kind of guy. But when he decides to do it, he's very effective. So that's what I'm excited about with Jayde Daniels. And I also mentioned really quick release. His accuracy compared, you know, twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two pretty good. In twenty twenty three, it was awesome. So the accuracy definitely improved, no doubt about it. Obviously. It helps having guys like you know, Milik Neighbors when you're catching the football and Brian Thomas, who, by the way, man, when I was watching Jane Daniels, I like couldn't stop watching Milik Neighbors that we're gonna talk about him soon. I think he's an unreal prospect, but there's a lot to like with Jane Daniels, even though he is an older guy. I think he could be a top five pick in the draft. I think there's a chance he could go higher than Drake May, which I think might be a little hot taky, But if he fits a scheme better or you know, coaching staffles and more, I don't think that's crazy.

He has the flick motion where you know there's some quarterbacks who they're heaving it and it's like this, this seems like such a like so much labor just to get the ball. Chad Pennington used to be that way. It's like, oh, just for the ball to go twenty, it feels so like so hard to get there. You know, Daniel's can just flick it and it's kind of that Michael Vick where it just just launches out of his hand. So you love seeing that. My biggest note from twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three is it it just looked like he was so comfortable in twenty twenty three going to his second read, to going off script to just like make a decision and go where I feel like twenty twenty two is a lot of scripted, first read stuff. But his arms there, I wouldn't say it's electric, but it's solid. And I think he's gonna work in the NFL system. So I don't like the age, but I'm not going to count that against him when I have the rushing production. I don't want to count that against him twice. So yeah, I'm excited to see where he lands because I think fantasy wise, he could end up as the highest, you know, fantasy producer of this group. But you know, there's also concerns about his body size, Like I mean, two ten is at six ' four is just smaller than what you want. So let's take quick break and then we'll talk about these other guys. All Right, we got three more quarterback prospects we're gonna talk about. I'm really excited actually to talk about JJ McCarthy and then the grumpy old men. We'll talk about the old dudes. But JJ McCarthy, we have him ranked as our QB four at this point in the season, and I came ready in the evaluation process to say, all right, we know this story. Guy wins the national championship, he gets elevated in our minds, but we know how this usually works. He's the sum of all of his parts. This is a running team. And man, I have really enjoyed watching JJ McCarthy tape from twenty twenty three, where he's kind of been seen as like, oh, he's just a game manager. But man, there's a lot to like here. He's a half year younger than almost everybody in this class, so you like that six ' three. He's slender, he's only two, But I mean JJ McCarthy has a lot of traits and a lot of accuracy traits that translates to the NFL. So I'm so far. I'm not saying I've watched every single game of JJ McCarthy's life, but you know, I'm about seven games in and I'm I'm I'm enjoying the even some twenty twenty two tape.

Yeah.

I think there's a lot of misinformation right now about who JJ McCarthy is, And there's no denying like the counting stats and you look at just his attempts and his yards and all that sort of thing. It's not eye popping, but obviously at Michigan it was the Blake Quorum Show is a very run focused offense, but that doesn't mean he can't throw the football. JJ McCarthy can sling it, dude, And there are darts all over his tape. When you look at his ability to deliver with timing and accuracy just on crossing routes, on you know, out routes, on NFL caliber type throws, he's really really good as a passer. So I think there's a lot of misinformation about just who he is as a guy. And everyone thinks, ah, like, you know, he didn't throw for three thousand yards, like, how can he be any good in the NFL? Man? His efficiency was off the charts, and when you consider that he based a lot of really tough defenses, no one among the six that we're gonna talk about today faced the higher rate of his attempts against top fifty NFL defenses or excuse me, college defenses. JJ McCarthy was really good in those games too, man. So I know the numbers aren't I popping. I know it's not sexy when you look at a guy that's like, oh, through for two nine hundred yards and what twenty two touchdowns, But this is a guy that can play quarterback, and I think his game actually is going to translate pretty well to the NFL. So I'm higher the market on JJ McCarthy. I also know that there's a lot of people that might be kind of surprised to hear this, but I mean, I think he's a really good bet to go top twenty. I think he's a strong bet to go top fifteen. And there's a lot of people in the NFL's got in community that think he's gonna go top ten. So JJ McCarthy might be kind of one of those guys that's a really good, I think sleeper in this class at quarterback based off of I think the preconceived notion of who he is.

Yeah, it's it surprised me because I went in this not looking at any everybody else's notes, like no comparisons, no nothing. I even went back to twenty twenty two. I was like, oh, well, obviously, you know, there's some things that he didn't do, like the Ohio State game two years ago, didn't look flustered at all. I mean it was a big game, both teams were undefeated, and just look like he's leading this team. They ended up winning. There's a bunch of awesome throws on third downs too, Like that was one of the things that when it was a money down, money McCarthy came through, you know a lot of the time, and so rolling to the right, he can get zip on the ball to His adjusted completion rate was second in this class. Twenty six percent of his attempts were in the intermediate area. So yeah, BET's mentioned like the volume's not there, But when you kind of look at that and say, okay, where did the majority of his throws go? Like that was number one in this class, him throwing the intermediate area. So that's something I love. On third and six it's from Fandel's jim sonis like he was awesome on third and six and long. So I'm yeah, my comp just because you know, comp's here everything. As I mentioned earlier, he is the most important thing. Is I I comped into Alex Smith with a bigger arm.

Yeah, I mean, I get it, But I think that's unfair, Like and it's not because al Smith was bad.

He was taken first overall.

Yeah yeah, yeah, I know, but I think when people think of Alex Smith, they're like, oh, he's only a game manager, and and yes, that is kind of what they sort of asked him to do at Michigan, where it was like the run game is our first priority, then we can kind of get into our you know, our our passing game. But if he's asked to throw more volume, have more pass tempts, I think he can do it. Like I think there's a miss misconception about like I said, just he's a game manager. He's only going to throw the ball twenty five times a game, and he only can throw off play action like you mentioned the third and six or longer stuff. The reason that's important is like defense is no, they're gonna throw the football, and he was insanely efficient and didn't take a ton of sacks in those scenarios either. I'm I'm pretty high on Jjim McCarthy. I think he's a little underrated. The other thing too, that I know you mentioned kind of he's always like calm and collected, doesn't seem rattled out there. He's a guy who's gotten a lot of notoriety about his pregame meditation, and it sounds kind of silly, but like I think it kind of matters, Like this is a guy that clearly kind of can you know, take a step back, stay cool under pressure. Stuff like that. He did come out and talk about that stuff and said, you know, in high school, I actually dealt with a lot of mental you know, it's some depression and mental health issues and stuff like that, and he kind of worked on it and fixed it. So that's kind of an underlying thing that like, hey, if things go south in the first couple of games as a pro like, I don't think he's gonnahit the eject button and panic like he's gonna be able to kind of weather the storm a little bit. So, like I said, I'm just overall high on Jji McCarthy. I think he's a pretty good prospect, a fascinating guy to see where he goes, because, like I said, I think he's gonna be one of those guys when on draftneck and here's his name call, people might be like, why are they taking him in the top fifteen, But this he could be the guy that lasts three or four years in the NFL beyond some of these other guys that probably have a higher ceiling, And I would not be surprised about that at all.

Yes, I think for fantasy purposes, he's probably capped compared to these other guys. But like NFL career, you know, working in an NFL offense, I could see him being a player that puts up, you know, thirty five hundred passing yards, adds another two fifty or so on the ground, and he's gonna have some efficiency seasons potentially. So I yeah, I pleasantly surprised. I did not go into this process saying I'm a JJ McCarthy guy, or you know, I was gonna pound the table and say he's the dude. But I think for fantasy he kind of sits in there as the quarterback four, and I feel pretty good about it in our rankings. Let's move a little further the higher profile names from the PAC twelve Michael PENNOCKX Junior. We're gonna start there. Him and Bo Nicks are basically tied in our ranks. He's old. We have to say that first. His current age is twenty three point eight, and you might say to yourself, wow, that's kind of mean, considering you guys are way older than him. How are you ragging on a dude who hasn't even turned twenty four yet?

Fair point.

So, just to give you some comps, I looked at every single quarterback who was drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. So keep in mind, I'm throwing out anybody who was third round or later, which basically means they weren't a hit. And the list is not good since two thousand. Okay, it's it's you know. The only names that are real hits on this list are Andy Dalton, who had a good NFL career and probably had two or three fantasy seasons that were relevant. Colin Kaepernick had a little brief moment, Ryan Tanneill at a late career moment. Carson Wentz had I guess like two moments.

I was gonna say a single moment that one.

Year man was awesome, and then Joe Burrow, and then I could give you a laundry list of players. Carson Palmer you could throw on that list, but it was a slow burn too. My point is when someone is this old and they are drafted in the NFL Draft, there's usually a reason, and I think you're seeing that right now. Michael Pennicks right after the college football right after the final was kind of seen as all, this guy looks like he's part of the first round this is where people had him mocked. He has been slowly following right now in Dane Brugler's rankings, which if you're not following Dane Brugler of the Athletic, change your life, do it. He has him fifty seventh on his big board, and I'm seeing routinely mocked in the second to maybe even third round. So that's not where we get our evaluation, but it does make sense based on his age and based on him as a prospect and as a thrower. He's kind of limited, So you know, I'm just gonna be way lower on him.

Yeah, if you like to play this game in a spreadsheet, Michael Penis is not for you. Right. You talk about a guy that's gotta be twenty four years old if and when he takes his first snap. You talk about a guy that played six seasons in college, and I know a lot of that was the COVID year and injury issues and stuff, which, by the way, two ACL tears and two season ending shoulder injuries in his profile. But you throw those things into the mix and you add the draft capital. In of I think best case scenarios, he goes in the middle second round. If I was kind of projecting where I see him as a range of outcomes. Maybe early second, but like sneaking into like the middle second to back second to early third is kind of where I see possibility for him. Those guys just generally don't work out. And Kyle listed some of the names that did work out among the older Round one quarterbacks and the list is not great, right, It's obviously not great, But when you throw in the fact that he probably won't go Round one, the hit rate is just so low. So yeah, I mean the name is there because he had an awesome last season, went to the college football Playoff, you know, all the sort of things. But it's just the guy that I'm not really into. And you talk about, Okay, well, he add enough juice and ceiling for fantasy. This is the guy that did not scramble at all, doesn't really run, so I just don't see it personally. I will say that the arm talent, as far as the arm strength is there, like easy flick of the risk, he can make a lot of throws. He's pretty good when he pressures in his face and kind of avoiding that and staying in the pocket and still keeping his eyes down field. Those are things that are really good. But to me, there's just a lot of negative in his profile that, yeah, if someone else likes him more than I do in my rookie draft because the name, I'm happy to be out and just reference. You can read this in the dynasty pass I had. I think it was a three to zero one in our rookie draft in the mach or three zo two and I took JJ McCarthy And I remember at the time a couple people that were in the mock were like, Oh, it's probably needn't take Pennix there. And I think that's kind of how this offseason has started for Penix, where it's like, oh, I could see him being like in the back of round one or like really early round two, and now is the week's unfold and we get more information and we kind of let the coll football season just kind of, you know, come to rest here. I think he's going to be a little overrated as a prospect in my opinion.

One of the things that just stinks for being left handed. And I'm saying that my son's left handed, so like I'm learning life and how to coach him as baseball player. It's just different NFL teams have basically allocated almost all of their resources to right handed quarterbacks four years. I mean, it's there's a reason it's Tua and basically nobody else because of the way that they do protections, the way that they draw up schemes, the way they do everything else. So it can take a special team that sees him and says he has the traits I want, and he has the traits that I can use in the NFL. Is just if I were a betting person, I would say that in the NFL, it's just easier to see a player who's this old slide we saw last year. Now this is an injury thing, but Hennon Hooker an older player with crazy production his final year, people are like, oh, he's gonna make it in round one, didn't make it in round two, Like it's it's players like this usually end up sliding. And I've found in his film that I just liked his wide receivers more than him a lot of the times, like he can make the throws. I agree, it's just a little bit more stiff, and for a fantasy perspective, it's like you need an outlier touchdown season if he's offering nothing on the ground. You need him to put up a you know, six and a half seven percent TD rate, and I'm just gonna always bet against those kind of players. His PAC twelve Championship tape is really good against Oregon. I like that a lot, and you know, I we'll talk about Bonix in a second, but like, there's a lot of good things on the film if him as a thrower, but there's also a lot of things that I think just won't translate. So I'm interested to see what he measures in at because on some sites it says he's sixty three. That dude is not six three. No way, He's gonna be six to two, and it wouldn't shock me if he's even lower. So check back in with that leader. I didn't see what he weighed. We haven't met two thirteen right now, I'll look it up. So Bonix is the final player that we're going to talk about from Oregon. Confess. Confession people, Oregon players are really hard for me as a kid. I had some Orgon Duck stuff because I just love them. My two thousand and three NCAA football video game with Joey Harrington on the front, I played the tar out of that game. Oh yeah, and I always played as I played as the Ducks, so I have a little bias that I've always had a soft spot for organ Ducks players, but their system translating to the NFL is very, very hard. It just doesn't always work with the RPOs and some of the defenses. For instance, Nicks last year only forty one percent of his past attempts came against top fifty defense. That's the lowest of this class. So a lot of the times when I'm evaluating him, I'm like, Okay, here's some like backup, backup college, Portland State or something that you are playing against. And I can't fully like lean into the film from that game because it's very clear this team is in control. Uh, they know what they're doing. So any initial thoughts.

On Nicks, Yeah, real quick, just to I Mitchell, I was gonna look it up for Penix. He weighed in at two twelve and just over six to two, so good. I good eye there on the film, Kyle, not six to three. But but yeah, with bo Nicks, he's really interesting because again, kind of like the Jane McDaniels discussion, like the guy you saw at Auburn just so different. You know, he was very overwhelmed to Auburn, and I think he kind of had this like high standard of coming in as a freshman and starting in the SEC and truthfully flopped and you know, took a few years to kind of get out of there and then goes to Oregon has success. I think from a tape perspective, like to me, he was really good when he was in rhythm, like in the offense where it was very quick, rhythm based throws, he was really good. I noticed the big time improvement in his pocket awareness over the final two years of his career, obviously compared to Auburn. But the A dot was so low and it's kind of one of those things where it's like, okay, that helps you compile numbers in college, especially on an offense like Oregon, where they were, you know, prolific. I just think the production's a little inflated. And when you throw in that type of stuff to again, a guy that played five years in college who's twenty four years old. We just talked about the issues with that of Michael Pennix. Again kind of like that overall probability based standpoint that we played this game. We just make a bet when you take a guy or don't. I will probably be a little bit lower than market on Bonix.

It'll be interesting to see where NFL teams slot him in because I could see him going in the later first round and a team says, oh, I can work with this, I can work with the player. You know that set the FBS record for completion percentage. But a lot of those you mentioned is inflated, Like if I'm just shifting some of that and looking at downfield throws a little different. Only eleven percent of his throats traveled twenty plus yards down. So it's this weird internal struggle I have because I don't really care what you're doing twenty plus, but I need to know that you can actually still do it. And so a lot of his short area stuff, it's just gonna work screens, RPOs. He'll have a learning curve with the NFL playbook. As a runner, he's subtle. I think he's decisive. It's it's funny because at Auburn I remember watching a C games just thinking like okay, like I just this is just the dude. This is another dude. But Oregon a lot of good stuff against Oregon State. He had a great game on the ground. PAC twelve Championship tape. I really like that one too. I did see some second read problems where it's like, I just when he's when things break down as a passer. I don't think it's great. I did love watching their tape though, Man, like you mentioned earlier, Malik Neighbors, Troy Franklin is a really really fun player. Bucky Irving I mentioned him on the running Back episode, a really fun player. So these some of their parts. I like watching film, and I'm a sucker for Oregon players, but I feel like I just need he's gonna be a player that's like I could see him end up being you know, QB four, QB five in this class if a team falls in love with him. But I just have a hard time my comps for the comps people out there who are just like, please Kyle, tell me who he is. Uh, he's a more athletic Andy Dalton or the high end, the highest e ends. He's Kirk Cousins with wheels.

I mean, if you got Kirk Cousins, that'd be that'd be incredible.

Yeah.

So but he aloud My low incomp was Colt McCoy with a little bit more zip on the throw.

Cole was kind of fun for college.

That's and that's the thing. Is that going to be like the Tale of bow Knicks. It's like, remember him. He was a really fun college quarterback who set some records for completion percentage, but didn't translate to the NFL. So I don't know. For fantasy, I think I'm just gonna say TBD.

I mean, I'll be a person I'll be a little more aggressive and just saying I don't see it as far as the translation. You know a guy that, like you just mentioned kind of the hit rate or lack thereof of these guys, and I don't think he's a lot to go round one. I think he's probably someone that go back of round one to early to mid second round. So you combine kind of those factors with the age and the breakout age is not good. Like it kind of took a while for him to be the dude. Those are really red flags to me. So again, that kind of stuff combined with the tape was okay in some aspects, but not incredible. Just not a guy I'm super high on personally.

Yeah, and we'll get to see once we get closer. Are super flex rankings. You know, how high do you really take a guy that ends up in the second round, like the hit rate's not been good. If you said, you know, I'm going to reach on the Kyle Trass or the Will Levises of the world just because I'm in super Flex. So we'll see where he lands. I did want to mention just two other names, just say their names. We'll move on Spencer Rattler of South Carolina, who has had a wild ride from being the number one high school player to being the favorite to go number one overall two years ago. I forgot about heading in. Yes, him and Sam Howell were the favorites to go number one overall two years ago. Ended up in South Carolina. Now he's a red shirt senior, and you know, we'll see where he ends up. Probably is like a fourth or fifth round pick. And then Michael Pratt a TWU lane. Interesting tape if you want to go and look at some some green wave tape. You know the wave. Some people are just down with it, but uh yeah, those are those are the main names. We'll have some other ones if you want to look deeper in the Dynasty Pass part of the Ultimate Draft Kit plus. But bets, we went through it. Man, we grinded the tape, and I feel like we're mostly in step.

Mostly I think we're not sniffing each other's farts though, no, no, no, no, god, no, I would never who would do that?

Yeah, it's it's easy in prospect evaluation time to just go ooh, I like this comp or ooh I like this thing, and you end up only breathing in optimism. And so I feel like we gave a healthy dose of like, here's what we like. Here's the downside. If someone might be listening back, you guys are just idiots. You don't know what you're talking about. And that's okay. Might be true, yep. So next week we will get to talk about the wide receivers and the ballers will be back.

We'll see then have a good week.

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. If you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level, check out the Fantasyfootballers dot Com

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