Rookie Range of Outcomes + Dynasty Differences - Dynasty Fantasy Football

Published May 15, 2024, 9:00 AM

Rankings debate on today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast! Borg & Betz discuss Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave's current value among wide receivers. Plus, a range of outcomes for the incoming rookie class including Jayden Daniels and Brock Bowers! Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for May 15th, 2024.

 

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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Bets and a baller.

Welcome in. It's Wednesday, May fifteenth. We're back hands Footballer's Dynasty Podcast. I'm your host, Capergnoni and I am joined as always by Matthew. Hey, you're still with me.

Bets, I am here. Someone else is not. You know, if you listen to the little intro man that says, hey is our show. Who's here? Liar liar pants on fire? Just Borg of Bets today?

Yeah, you know you and I. I was supposed to get the number because that's kind of part of who I am. It is just like, let's go find this out. Just this stat But Bets and I think we've done four hundred episodes plus together at least. Yeah, from DFS em Betting podcast to Dynasty Podcast to whatever else we've done over the years. Yeah, we've done a lot. So we've got this chemistry. And the Ballers this week are in the middle of UdK Crunch, which you think would be like, Okay, we're getting fit, we're getting ripped, we're getting ready, but no, that's not what Jason, Mike and Andy are doing this week. Instead, they are right now we're recording all of our videos, our profile videos, everything else, because the Ultimate Draft Kit comes out June first, So lazy didn't want to be here. I don't know.

You make the call, right, Yeah, I guess you'll find out when the UdK comes out on June first how good those videos are, and you'll be able to judge for yourself the quality of their work. But no, man, it's here. I mean we're a couple weeks away. It's May fifteen when this is coming out in your podcast feed on YouTube, and that means we literally have two weeks till June firstus here, which is also a good reminder to myself because you and I have a bunch of work to do that comes down on June first as well. But you know, we've seen a lot of the stuff behind the scenes already. I think people are gonna love the product. I can't wait June first. Every year. To me, it feels like Christmas, you know, in the fantasy space, it's like Christmas. You get here, June first comes, you open your app and this thing is beautiful. So can't wait for that.

Yeah, there's a lot of seasonality of what we do for our jobs, but I think in people's lives in general, it's May. Your kids, if you have them, are about to be done with school. For some of you, that's like, oh my gosh, what am I going to do for the whole summer? But it kind of like things shift from May to Okay. In football season, we're getting a schedule this week that's going to be released, so you can actually like, look at, Okay, here's what the games are. You also get to start, you know, bending things in your mind of what could a player be. And I think this episode, what we're gonna do is talk about a range of outcomes for these rookies. I realized that I've written the same article for three years in a row, Bets, and the same thing has happened. A couple of years ago. It was Trey Lance and what is his range of outcomes? Boy, he gets hurt. I wrote Anthony Richardson's last year and just said, Okay, here's all the range of outcomes of what he could be based on what he did, what he could do, his production profile, what running quarterbacks do? He gets hurt. I'm in the middle of writing another article about a mobile quarterback and his range of outcomes, So.

Time you want to warn people who that is that they don't take that guy or what pro teas.

We'll actually talk about that player today on this episode. I mean, no, what a tease, But yeah, we're going to talk about that. Talk about rookies because I think at this point everything's pie in the sky, everything's open. This guy's going to dominate targets. This other guy in the roster is a bum. And yet every single year you have expectations and then how it actually plays out. And so a year from now, if we're having a conversation about the rookie that you just drafted on your roster, realized that his value could change, like it's not gonna stay right here. Just because right now on a startup you're taking him as the quarterback ten doesn't mean necessarily that he's gonna stay there now, Trey Lance, I looked this up. That's he was quarterback ten and startups, he gets hurt. Do you want to know where he was going the next year in startups?

I feel like it was higher, like it probably was like QB. I was gonna say quarterback eight.

It was QB eight and QB nine in that range. So injuries and even somebody. It's almost like if he came out and just sucked okay, like Justin Fields was pretty bad. He had a couple of rushing moments his first year, but his value decreased the next year because he played Trey Lance didn't really play. He gets hurt, and yet his value and the perception of peoples that it went up. So this is a pro Trey Lance group right here, but it's more of just a bit at this point, like I have him in a super flex roster and I'm just waiting, biding my time in the shadows, just waiting because it's never gonna happen, is it.

What's so funny about that is it's basically you, me and Mike, like were the last three Truthers left on this planet. And anytime there's like a slightly positive blurb about Trey Lance, which they are few and far between. So when it happens, I mean you and I and Mike are on it and we're like, oh, this is the Vikings quarterback of the future. Oh he's with the cowboys, like he's in the playoffs, Like we find ourselves just like making a little funny excuses for him. But it's over. You know sadly it's over, but I believe if he could have gotten on the field, he could have been good for fantasy, for fantasy good.

Yeah, I mean, what if I told you that every time you see a positive tweet or anything about him, it's just me feeding people, just beating beat riders.

Just it's actually funny. And then you go to Twitter and you search just Trey Lance's name. The only people that come up tweeting about him are at Kyle Underscoreborg, at the Fantasy pt, and at hit Man'. That's literally all you're gonna see.

Yeah, I mean the group meetings are dwindling. I mean, the membership, the fees. People don't want to pay that anymore. I totally get it. But yeah, Ultimate draftkit dot com if you want to get in on our rookie rankings, our startup rankings. I was comparing our startup rankings with a couple of other sites just to say, hey, are we different about this? So you can do that. You go to Ultimate draftkit dot com if you want to be in on this. But I want to be a little selfish at the top before we get into a rookie range of outcomes. I made the mistake the other day of just putting out a tweet, and you know, depending on where you're at in the spectrum, Like there's football Twitter, like, oh, I love football. I grew up playing football, and this is, you know, a man's game. There's people that love football that didn't play football. There's people that love the analytics and the numbers behind it, and then there's people that like all of it. And I think people have a hard time whenever they see a tweet, they just to put people in a couple different categories. So all I did innocently and someone called me out. They're like, dude, I don't know if you realize you jumped into a snake pit here. I was like, I just put out a tweet. But all I did was looked at a comparison between two players. And this comes from a question. I did this research because we had a question for the Dynasty Mailbag this week, and this one comes from YouTube and says, I'd love to know the obsession with Chris o'lave. He's wide receiver twenty five and wide receiver sixteen and back to back seasons, and he doesn't score that many touchdowns. He has just nine touchdowns in two seasons and he's still tied to Derek Carr. The question is why does he consistently go as a top twelve Dynasty wide receiver. So I started doing the research and realized that thus far through two seasons, Garrett Wilson and Chris o'lave, teammates at Ohio State, drafted, you know, one pick between each other, basically the same exact age, have very similar productions this year. So all I really was trying to do is like, wow, these two players are similar. Put out a chart and someone goes, you don't know ball, So Betts tell me why I don't know ball?

Well, have you watched the tape yet? Because I mean, if you don't watch the tape, you don't know Baul.

I know. Yeah, I'm still waiting. What's the channel? Football is on? What channel? Again?

It's on YouTube, Kyle to look up the highlights. It is such an interesting conversation because I do agree that the general sentiment around these two players is they are both awesome Dynasty cornerstone pieces. However, I think you ask I don't know, ten people eight will tell you like I'd rather I have Garrett Wilson Dynasty League That's just the sentiment that I get kind of the feeling of like, you know, Garrett Wilson's kind of in this tier and Chris Alave is just, you know, in one tier below. That's how it feels to me when you talk about those two players. But the numbers and the stats really are almost identical, and some of them actually favor Chris Olave. And I think what's interesting about the Wilson you know experience from last year is the expectations were sky high. With Chris Alave, they were pretty high, but it wasn't like you were counting on him to be like a top eight, top five wide receiver that you saw and arrange of ocklaums for With Garrett Wilson, of course, four snaps in Aaron Rodgers, tears Achilles, that's all over. But that is what people are, I think, are hanging on to of kind of who this player is now. Granted, yes, the quarterback play was abysmals for Garrett Wilson over the last couple of years, it's been terrible, and he's still been a producing at a very high level. I mean, Chris A. Lave is still producing at an extremely high level. They're the same age, same draft capital coming out of school, you know, a couple of years ago with Ohio State, it was the conversation of like, which one do you prefer? Some people said Wilson, some people said Alave, some people said doesn't matter. They're both going to be fantastic. And I think all we've seen in the last couple of years in the NFL is these guys are both fantastic. They both haven't had an elite quarterback play. I mean, Derek Carr's fine. Andy Dalton at this point not fine, right, he played with him a couple of years ago. Like, it really has not been great for either guy. I think one of these guys just needs that little extra boost from quarterback play and you will see just an outlier like elite season.

Yes, and I think you don't have to ask the question which one is better. I think it's more of in dynasty, who has met expectations and who has it. I think both have underwhelmed based on what we hoped they would be, Like, Oh, I hope I would get a Justin Jefferson type player. You've gotten a stupid amount of targets for Garrett Wilson, the most ever of any wide receiver through two years, so volume wized. Yes, catchable targets wise not as good. Only seventy three percent of his targets have been catchable. For a lobby it's seventy seven percent, so those are pretty close. But I am currently just for the people that say you don't know ball or have you ever watched the tape? Yes, I watch all these games, but also right now in the process of rewatching three hundred and ten plus targets for Garrett Wilson of the last two years, and I can say this, it confirms what we thought coming out. I remember you wrote the rookie profile for Garrett Wilson coming out, and it's like what we loved about him was his ability to get open in space, create separation, the things we love. And I think if there is a a hold a poke, it's that he's never going to be a huge yack guy based on just his frame alone, Like he's not aj Brown, so they're not gonna throw him the same stuff. So even the screens that Gary Wilson has seen, like he's seen twenty two screens, he doesn't done a lot with them, and he hasn't done a lot with the deep targets. Now, part of that's quarterback play. It's like it's a chicken or egg conversation. Is he gonna keep getting the type of targets that don't produce for fantasy, because then it's like, well, I'm not gonna be able to get more than seven touchdowns, but based on his targets, he should see a lot more. So we like both these players. We like them a lot. The perception is last year you had to pay wide receiver five price for Garrett Wilson, and right now I think the value has gone down a little bit from last year, but it's still kind of like wide receiver seven, wide receiver eight in startups?

Would you say, yeah, I mean at worst, I think I mean.

Right now, that's the price and that's the expectation for him to come through, And so Chris oll lobby is a little bit cheap. That's kind of the point I was trying to make, is not is this player better or worse? Like I would prefer Garrett Wilson in a startup, but you don't have to pay the same price based on people's perceptions with Chris o'lave, he is getting a bit of an upgrade in terms of scheme, while Wilson hopefully gets an upgrade in quarterback. I mean he's never caught a pass an NFL game from Aaron Rodgers, so we'll see. But like Chris o'lave, there is hope for him this year because the Saints, I don't know if you guys know this, They've been running the same plays for fifteen years. I mean this is the same offensive coordinator, you know, Pete Carmichael junior, and now they have Clint Kubiak. So there is a reason to be bullish on Olave at his price, right.

Yeah, big time. I mean think about like what this offense was with Pete Carmichael over the last several seasons, in just the last couple of years with the Lave, it's so stale, right There's they were dead last and prestat motion this past year, which when you look at the best teams in the league, you know, the Niners, the Dolphins, the Eagles, like when the offense is just clicked, like those guys and those teams and those coaching staffs are using pre stat motion. Answer Clinton Kubiak, who comes over from San Francisco, who I just mentioned was among the leaders in pre stat motion. Last year he was the pass game coordinator. So I think you're going to see just a better environment for Chris Lave. Will the quarterback play be vastly different. No, of course not. It's still Derek Carr. But get him in motion more, get him in the slot more, you know, give him some of those targets where he can do something after the captain. It's not just you know, hey, get down the sideline. Let's see if Derek Carr hopefully hits you and doesn't check it down to Aavakamara, you know, for the fifteenth time in the game. So there are holes for both guys. Like it's a projection that the elite season is coming, but I think both guys there is one coming very soon. And then with you know, Garrett Wilson, it's all Roses again because Aaron Rodgers is back. But and I'm not saying it won't work out. I think it probably will. But the last time we saw Aaron Rodgers play in Green Bay, it was not great. And now he's missed a full season. So I do see a path where obviously he goes very well, but I see a path where it's like, huh, Rodgers, is not the same guy he was obviously at this point in his career. So both guys have I think slightly more downside than you realize for just the season, but both guys upside is through the roof. I think it will cost you less in a trade to go get Chris a Lave. He's like one of the elite potentials that is like still you can still acquire him, like before it's too late kind of thing. And a Lave for me is one of those targets this offseason.

Both players were frustrating last year. All right, let's just be honest, Like Chris A Lave did have issues of drops. Garrett Wilson, You're like, wow, I got fifteen targets and you look at me like does this even matter for fantasy? So it's like you can blame the quarterback, you can blame the scheme, and I just kind of say, yes, all of them, like all of them are a part of the issue. And so it's hard when you're evaluating players. You kind of want to create a dichotomy a lot of time, like oh, here's why this is good and that's bad. It's like you can kind of look at it and say, uh, there's a menu of things to consider. You can consider the film, you can consider the analytics, you can consider the scheme. All of those things kind of are the ingredients that you care about in so far through two years. If you compare, and I did a giant article on Dynasty wide receiver thresholds, if you want to look at that, these two are doing what they're supposed to do on a per route basis. I mean, Chris Alave target on twenty six percent of his routes through two years, Garret Wilson twenty four percent. It's just that Alave's been more efficient on the yards while also recognizing that Olave is getting deeper targets that matter more. I mean, Gary Wilson still doesn't have a touchdown of twenty plus air yards, so there there is something consider in that. So I'd rather have Wilson, But I agree with you. I think it's just going to be cheaper. And that's okay to be able to say that, Like, you know what, the Garret Wilson manager in my league, he's not trading him to me like he's he's he's like, I paid this price, I got him ahead of you know, Jameson Williams and all those other dudes Treylon Burks who have flamed out, and now I feel good about it. So I think at the end of the day, you're gonna be happy with either of these players at the end of this year, right, I.

Think big time.

Yeah, that's okay, all right. So our Dynasty startup ranks are there udkplus dot com. If you want to look at those, compare them, look at the ages, and then look at Wilson Alaba go, well, so far that's been pretty similar, but it'll change after this year. What's the difference between me and you? So Bets and I are going to throw out some rookies and you can find the rookie rankings, rookie profile articles, production profiles. If you just want to deep dive on these players, you can do that and kind of give a high end a median in a low end range. A lot of times when you look at ranks, they're set in a lanear fashion where you go like, well, this player is ranked ahead of him, and so he must be better. It's like, no, well, like the player we're gonna talk about first, Jane Daniels, his high end outcome seems so much higher than what you could say about JJ McCarthy, but in our rookie rankings, like they're in a similar tier right now. If you just were to look at that, like I'm gonna write an article I did it last year about super flex tiers and with Jane Daniels, like next year, let's just you jump here and just say, hypothetically, if he goes bonkers this year, Let's say he goes like RG three level or Lamar levels of like this is a game breaking rushing quarterback and it works on the dual threat level. Next year, what's the highest you could see Jane Daniels in a startup for quarterbacks?

I think he could be in the conversation as like the quarterback five if I mean, if that season comes to fruition, that's where I seem, what about.

You, Yeah, that's kind of the number where it's like, Okay, well it's gonna be hard to get ahead of Alan Hurts Mahomes just like immediately, I mean, the weapons aren't there quite yet in Washington for me to be able to say like this is what's going to happen. I mean, Terry McLaurin after this year is a question mark. John Dotson. We'll see if they even pick up his fifth year option. Austin Eckler's old Zachar should be sitting on the couch. They do have the senator.

Though, so they're said they're.

Good to go. It's just like you can look a year out, you can look five years out, and in five years like who knows what this team is. So let's talk about Jane Daniels because he's twenty three years old taking second overall in our rookie ranks. We have him as like the one oh three to one oh four in a super flex rookie rankings, which I think you and I would both say I would take Marv ahead of him. I would take Caleb ahead of him, and then it's kind of based on teamn do you want Molik Neighbors or Jane Daniels? Is that how you feel?

Yeah, That's exactly how I feel, And I think in that super flex format, that's the conversation, you know, just kind of thinking about like how it goes south and you know kind of how guys lose value. I mean, Bryce Young is kind of the example of like, well, if it's really bad in year one, like it's really bad in terms of value in here too, like no one wants Bryce hung obviously, but with Anthony Richardson, we had this exact conversation last year, and it's like, well, hey, his best range of outcomes, his highest outcome is probably like Cam Newton rookie year, and you saw a couple flashes of it, and it's enough for him to hang on value even though he missed almost the entire season. You saw enough in the first month and a half, like, oh wow, this dude led the league in fantasy points per drop back. You see the upside he has, and so as long as he shows you something like in year two, his value will be not just good, excellent. So as long as Jane Daniels shows you enough in year one, specifically, I think just the rushing. I mean, obviously want him to be able to throw too, and create some deep plays with McLaurin and dots him. But if he runs the way you know he did in college, which not necessarily style because for the love of God, to get down or get out of bounce, but just the volume of rushing, the explosiveness, that's what breaks fantasy right. Every year. You can be a terrible actual quarterback and just run enough and you're good for fantasy. And that's the game we play. So as long as he shows you enough something like Anthony Richardson did in year one, his value in year two is not only gonna hold, it's going to grow at a pretty big rate.

Yeah. And if we're talking about the meeting out, that's what we'll do for some of these players. We're saying they meet expectation or at least they hold value going to next year. So right now in startups, we have him as the QB twelve. I looked at Keith trade Cutt just to kind of get like a pulse, also at QB twelve, So pretty close to what we said about Lance and Richardson in this QB ten QB twelve range with upside but a median outcome in year one. To me says that he runs. Like we've said before, every rookie that gets eighty rush attempts. I wrote this a long time ago, and it still holds true. It was with Kyler Murray's with any of these quarterbacks. If you get eighty rush attempts or in seventeen games that's about five per game, then you end up being a top ten guy. In points per game. That's just how it works with fantasy if you're running that much. Like if he did that and his TD rate sucks, Let's say he runs, you know, five plus times a game. He ends up with like six hundred rushing guards, but the TD rate is like three point two. We w'd be like, ah, man, I wish we got more than like eighteen touchdown passes. But he did enough where it's like I can see the growth. I mean, remember Lamar his rookie year. He came in in the second half and it was pretty abysmal the completion rate, Like I think he threw like seven touchdown passes over those final eight games, but he was running enough that you could say, like, Okay, this could work next year. Throws for thirty five. He's the MVP. So all I need from Jane Daniels to maintain value is show me the rushing stuff that we saw in college. And then this other threshold is start nine games, Like if you can stay on the field, not get injured or get replaced, It's like, if he's starting from day one, he's going to hit this mark. Among rookie quarterbacks who hit nine plus games started seventy five percent of them were a top twelve quarterback when in the next two years. So I think that's all we're really asking is like stay alive, run the ball, and that's good. But the high end we said earlier is like RG three rookie year where it's just like guns blazing right from the start. And I hate that it's the same team. It's like too easy of a comparison. But that is in the range of outcomes considering like how efficient of a passer he is. He's not just a runner. So do you see, like what's his high end range in your one for passing touchdowns?

That's a tough question to answer because I think you know this this team of the way that is the weaponry is not elite, and I think it could be very good. Like I'm a big fan of Terry McLaurin. I think he's one of the better actual NFL ride receivers who just hasn't hasn't had a quarterback literally the entire career that he's played to like get him over the hump for fantasy, but like in real life terms, like he's very very good. John Dotson, you know a lot of people are interested in him entering your two completely fell in his face. So who knows sa who knows if he's if he's the guy he was his rookie year, Like Arrow was pointing up. Obviously, if he's who he was last year, that's terrible. Man. Austin Eckler is another year older, clearly on decline, Like we like Ben Sinnett, but he's a rookie tight end, and you know not every rookie tight end is going to be Sam la Porta. So like there is a path where the weaponry just is not good enough to support an outlier like elite top three season the way RG three was on Pace four, So you know the path is there. His weapons need to be better. He needs to run and throw probably twenty four ish touchdown passes to like have that elite season where you're like, this dude just finishes the top three fantasy quarterback because he will run. It's just a matter of like does he do enough of his arm to kind of get you over the hump?

Yeah, twenty five total is a good mark for a rookie to hit. Like, I mean, there's there's great seasons when you think about Herbert and Baker and what Stroud just did. But we're looking like on the ground, like the combination of the two. The good thing that Jane Danos has is that he was accurate at LSU. He was number one and catchuple target rate when he wasn't pressured. However, we mentioned before like when he is pressured, the dude takes off. I mean he had the highest scramble rate that I have in my database. Like it's just like his total number of scrambles is from Nate Tice now with Yahoo is two hundred and fifty eight since he came into college. That's more than anybody else. And just to give you, you know, some numbers with that, over the last two seasons, he scrambled, meaning it wasn't a design run play five times per game. Lamar Jackson, who was the greatest rushing quarterback of all time like last year, was doing it three point nine and he's never done it more than four. So for him to run and take off is an awesome thing for fantasy. It also correlates a lot of times with players who can't stand in the pocket and throat A'llah justin Fields or Johnny Manzel who also had some crazy rushing statistics coming in the NFL. So on the low end, that's the only thing that scares me is that he doesn't allow himself to stay in the pocket. He doesn't allow himself to actually do this. And yes, we like it for fantasy, and yet it doesn't help him develop long term the way that we saw with Justin Fields.

Yeah, I think that's actually a really good cop of like how it kind of goes south and after rookie year, Justin Fields he still had value. So I don't like something really really bad would have to happen for Jay and Daniel's to not have some value next year. Now, of course we're talking about a spectrum like could he be high as the quarterback five? Could he drop down like the quarterback fourteen? Like that's kind of where I see him in that range next year where things go great, it's great. If you see some red flags, you're like, yeah, but he still rans, like I'll give him a second chance. We did that exact same thing with Justin Fields right where it was like there are red flags all over the guy's tape, all over the processing speed, all over him as a passer, but he ran and it was enough for fantasy. Now, I think Jane Daniels is a much better passer coming out of school than Justin Fields was. So I'm not making a straightline comparison there, but just kind of that example I think does give you at least something in you in your mind's eye of like this is how could go? You know, from a negative standpoint, because we all want to talk about these players as if it's only going to go great. Well, there is a downside case, and I think that Justin Field's career archetype is something to consider with Justin or with a Jane Daniel's profile.

One more thing I just want to add about him is he didn't have to do a ton of play action stuff. You know at LSU is just not really part of it. I mean it's the lowest of the six quarter, taking only seventeen percent of his dropbacks for play action. That's gonna change a little bit. In the NFL. The average last year was like twenty four percent, so there will be an uptick. And what they're asking him to do with cl Cliff Kingsbury, I'm I'm just one of those people that overtime teams figure him out and figure out horizontal rate. But we're leaving it open that this could be a generational player. Like there's the high end range of outcomes. So if you have Jade Daniels in his super Flex league and he's your QB two, you gotta be locking your chops like this is awesome. I know that there's upside here, like I could end the year with two guys, you know, if you're counting on somebody else, Like if let's say you had Herbert and Jane Daniels, you're like, sweet, I've got this on lockdown, or you got Burrow. It's like one of those one of those guys where you drafted him in your super Flex draft to be a QB two. But now you have two powerhouses. So let's take quick break and then we'll get two running back. All Right, we're back. We're gonna talk about Jonathan Brooks, taken by the Carolina Panthers in the second round. He's not even twenty one yet, and the opinions, the reason why I want to bring him up is because the opinions in startups are very different across the three footballers. Okay, so Andy has him as running back twelve, Jason all the Way at running back six, and Mike at running back nineteen, and I think you can argue for any of these we mentioned earlier, like linear rankings don't really tell a full story. You know, you can look at this Carolina offense how bad it was. You can look at running backs in general. You could also look at him off injury. So I know he's ahead of schedule because you know, he's human and that's what they do. But imagine where's he at in the recovery process at this point in May.

Yeah, so right now, the optimistic reporting, of course, because it always optimistic, is that he's gonna be ready for training camp. And I do think he's going to participate in some capacity in training camp. It's just a matter of like how much. And you know, where is he at in terms of his recovery as the month of July and August goes on, because when he gets to September, you know, he will be like roughly ten months recovered from the injury. He'll be nine months recovered from the surgery, and that's kind of usually like the minimum to get back on the field. Now, of course, certain players meet different timelines. Doesn't always go the way that the research says, but like nine months is kind of the standard upwards of like ten months. That's just to get on the field, and then it's like, okay, how long does it take to actually get to one hundred percent? Is it another month? Is another six weeks? You know you kind of saw that with Brees Sault last year. It is like the perfect example. Yeah, he played earlier in the year, but he really wasn't himself. They only gave him a handful of touches and then as the weeks went on, it was like more and more and more, and the last six weeks of the season, the dude exploded. So that's kind of the general like timeline I think that we should think about with Jonathan Brooks that you know, he's probably gonna get off to a slow start, that's expected, but this is dynasty, Like, this is not a redraft conversation. It's more about what does he do in year one, in the last two months that gives you, you know, a value of him moving into twenty twenty five.

For running backs that are kind of seen as the top of the class, like and he is. He was taken first and most people are taking him over Benson. It really comes down to a couple of things. One don't get injured again in terms of valuation, and two, don't get passed on the depth chart. As long as you have maintained your position, then you're in a good spot going into year two, because that's kind of the sweet spot. Like even Jonathan Taylor was taken early, it was kind of a slow roll, and then he finished the season RB five. Going next year, it was like, Okay, he is established as the dude. They're not you know, farting around with nim Hines or whatever else they're doing anymore. It's like, this is the dude. Now he has some players in his path that we can kind of laugh at, right, like we'd be like, okay, So they paid Miles Sanders a ton of money, I don't know, just to have some money, Like I don't know the point anymore. They brought him with Shad Penny just for you know, another body, and Chuba Hubbard's in his FI year, so entering next year, it's possible he's the only real running back on the roster that matters. So that's like the easiest thing for me to kind of check off, is say, competition wise, it'll be slow, but I see him, you know, getting fifteen plus touches by the end of the year, and that's valuable, But production wise, what does he have to do in year one for us to feel like, Okay, this guy is in that top five conversation because that's where he can go and be there next year, where were like, Okay, well, you know, I take him ahead of a lot of other names of people that you know are in that five to ten, Like he goes ahead of Saquon in startups next year. So what does he have to do in your one? In your mind this.

Might sound crazy to say, but I don't think he has to do that much honestly.

Because that's okay.

People are already factoring in, like, yes, he is coming off the torny ACL so I know the first I'm making this up, like four weeks, six weeks isn't going to be awesome. But if he just shows you like something in the last two months of the season and has I mean, he literally has no competition for touches, he still off the talent level on the depth chart, and the fact that they invested a second round pick in him when they still have so many holes on the roster. You think about the way Dave Canalys talks about him, Like in his pressers and stuff, they're always talking about running the football. It's important identity of this team using him in space kind of as a pass catcher. It's very Rashad White esque of what you saw last year where he saw twenty opportunities per game in seventy targets in that offense. Now, of course he stayed healthy the entire year. It's not a one to one comparison, but like, I think Dave Canalis wants this dude to be the workhorse whenever the time comes from and be healthy, and I think he will be so, even if he's a little bit inefficient and it's not incredible on a bad team. Like, people are still going to be excited about Jonathan Brooks entering year two because we know players do better in year two off the acl usually than year one. He'll have that working for him. The other thing that he'll have working for him is that he's not one of these veteran backs, Like think about the dynasty landscape or running back right now. I mean, it's so bad where like you know, Dereck Henry still has a job and Josh Jacobs is kind of fizzling out, but he still got a job and Jones got another starting job. Like the state of Dynasty running back right now is kind of ugly outside of like you know, Jamior Gibbs, Breeze, Bijon, like CMC. You could even argue probably will lose value next year just because of his age. There's no elite young running backs outside of those three. So even if Jonathan Brooks is just like good enough, he's still gonna be valued as a top ten Dynasty running back in my opinion next year, regardless of really how the season goes now.

I think that's a good point that when you look at rankings right now in May, and you look at the season ahead of us starting in September, things change more than you think, Like you got four months until season. Oh wait, the next four months are going to change it way more than you think those second four months. And then you look at the names like ahead of him in our ranks, It's like, okay, well, yeah, I would take Saquan ahead of him in a startup, I would probably take Kenneth Walker eight Chan. And yet a year from now, all of those situations could look worse Saquon with age, Kenneth Walker like Sharp and they could get more. Looks ah Chan, it's like one of the most fragile players to project in general. And then the name that I terrified to mention is Kyen Williams. Right now, he's ahead in our startup rankings. But I don't think it would shock us if we go ahead a year from now and Jonathan Brooks is somebody you would take in startups. Like I just think the natural progression of where things are gonna go job wise, in offense wise says that Jonathan Brooks will probably be ranked ahead of him. I mean, I want to like put a reminder a year from now and just say is that true, just based on how things work out. But I don't know. I'm assuming you'd take Kyen in a startup, but you'd be terrified.

Between these two players who had to take a startup. Yeah, I mean so my dynasty, you know, methodology or like how I do startups has changed over the years, honestly, Like I think a lot more about what is this player's value going to be in a year, because you don't want to take some more with an elite I said, a top you know, five six seven round pick in a Diacey startup. Those players like they have to have their value next year or like you're kind of screwed out of the gate. And to me, Jonathan Brooks is a player that looking back or looking forward rather than twelve months like I just talked about, I think we'll have a ton of value. So I honestly lean Jonathan Brooks. I think now that we talk through this, like I kind of agree with Jason's rank of six of like this dude, a lot has to go wrong for him to lose value next year and with the other guys just because of age or a little bit of a falloff. If you know, Kyriene isn't the same player he was last year. Like, it's not hard to see a path where all those guys lose value and there's only a handful of running backs that maintain it. And I think Brooks is one of those guys.

Yeah, I just look at a team like I have a team that Jerry and I have inherited and it's you know, was rebuilding and Brooks is there at the one oh seven. Now, there's other wide receivers that probably carry a higher upside but a lower hit rate of actually contributing for a roster at that spot. We took Brooks for the simple of like, one, we need running back, and two a year from now, we felt very good about what he was going to be. Also, keep in mind there's a difference between talking about theoretically somebody's startup rankings. Like if we're doing a startup draft today, you're having a different outlook because you're building a team from scratch. If you had Kien Williams on your team, you're like, sweet, I either got this guy off waivers a couple of years ago, or you know, in my rookie drafts or my taxi squad or whatever it was. So the inherited value that Kien Williams is to a team is I had no running backs. Now look at me. I have a top five dude. So I get that, like, right now, I would rather have Kien. If my team was playing and I'm competing for a championship, give me Kyen right now. But if you're doing a startup you're gonna have a different mindset of what you're trying to accomplish because with Kyen, the range of outcomes is a year from now, he's splitting the backfield or something else changes. So I hate thinking about that because in a in a vacuum, I want kyn In Redraft, I want Kyron. But in Dynasty we're having a little bit different conversation. Let's talk about Lad McConkey. I need your first just vibes because the videos were out there on the internet. They don't give full context. They showed just a little bit highest But did you get to see some Lad running around in shorts videos with the mushroom head on?

I mean, if the Chargers social team tweets it, I watch it. Their social team has earned that. Okay, they've been great over the last couple of years. True, Yes, I did see those quote unquote highlights where you know, there's no defenders, it's just drills. I did see him out there. Looks good from what I saw in the thirty second clip, and that's not surprising considering he's, you know, one of those guys that projected to be pro ready coming out of Georgia. So yeah, I'm excited about Lad. I think the landing spot for him, like we talked about in our last couple of shows recently, is good when you consider the target competition around him.

So Lad's twenty two and a half years old, it's taken thirty fourth overall in our rookie ranks in one quarterback leagues. We have him as the seventh overall player. In superflex, he kind of goes to that back first round I saw in a league that I'm in he was at the one eleven, another one at the one twelve, one ten. He kind of belongs in that range. In startups though right now we have him as wide receiver twenty five, which is an ambiguous place. I'm just gonna be honest, Like, when you look at startup rankings and you see, you know, whatever website you use, hopefully you get to use ours, there is a place from about wide receiver twenty whatever to wide receiver thirty five. That's just a bunch of dudes at different points in their career. I think I talked about it last week with George Pickens. It's like George Pickens in year three is the same as Terry McLaurin, who's like way older. Like it's like you kind of stick a bunch of guys in the same kind of tiers. So with Ladd wide receiver twenty five, Jason's the highest. Andy's a little bit lower. Although Andy loves Lad Mconkey, Andy has him at thirty one. How would you feel about paying that price in a startup?

Yeah, I think it's fair, especially because you kind of mentioned, you know, the players roughly going around him, like it's a mix of some great names that I would probably rather have, but there's also a bunch of guys around him that I'm like, you know, I see where this he loses value next year, kind of similar to like the Jonathan Brooks Karen Williams conversation, And you know, with Lad, like I talked about, he's just going to a situation where we know the quarterback play is really good. Yes, we're a bit concerned about how much actual volume we'll see from a passing standpoint, but I don't think he's going to have a bunch of competition not only for playing time but just target earners on the offense. He doesn't really have those guys next to him, so you know, it's it might be similar to like a Drake London target share conversation where it's like, well they never threw, but he did see a twenty five percent target share that kind of thing, So it may not be like an elite rookie year, but I think you'll see some efficiency on a per route basis, which is exactly what this guy was coming out of Georgia.

There's Chargers in the Falcons, man, just the two tames that I've you know, linked myself to for some dumb reason.

Hey, but you know as the second easiest strength of schedule this year?

Is it the Falcons?

Uh?

No, it is the Chargers. You know has the easiest strength of schedule this year.

Ah, there's the Falcon.

It is the Falcon. So these teams are definitely gonna win, you know, ten plus games, Kyle, no question.

Yeah. I mean you saw Pennix in the in the shorts video. I mean he was just slinging it to air. You know, nobody else was there. Let's yeah, you're getting a bunch of videos right now just to hype people up in May. So with Ladd, what does he have to do. We're gonna give the high end, the median and the low end. And when I was started exploring what it would take for lad mcconk and your one, I think most people the assumption is he's going to lead this team in targets. Like if you're just looking at it right now, the way he's going in best ball. I think most people think that he's going to be ahead of Quentin Johnson, ahead of your guy, Josh Palmer. I know you're you're a big fan Josh Palmer, uh and Will Disley and whoever else they're running out there. It's just like the assumption is, so if he does that, checks that box. I think you could say, Okay, this is what you drafted a player with this type of draft capital to come in and command targets. And he did earn targets in college, right, Like that's the kind of thing that we're hoping for a separator. I think it's hard for his player type to come in and just be like a dominator in the touchdown department. But we've talked about with Justin Herbert, like he can't live off of efficiency this year, not just volumes. So what do you see in your one, Like what does he have to do to really, you know, exceed.

Yeah, I think that touchdown conversation is you know, it's interesting because you think about this. You know, Greg Roman offense, we know they're gonna run the ball, but Lamar Jackson had an outlier touchdown efficiency season when he won MVP you know, in his second year. Like, I'm not saying that that's what's gonna happen with Justin Herbert, but for a while he's been kind of a volume playing fantasy Let's be honest, Like he's had his moments where he's been efficient, but they just chuck it every year in LA. Right now they're going to change that. I do think you'll see a spike in his touchdown efficiency, I know, and he talked about that a little bit on the Overreaction show on the main show, and it makes a lot of sense to me. So if Lad is the beneficiary of that, and he somehow gets to eight nine receiving touchdowns and somewhere around eighty catches, that's going to be enough that people see that in year one and they see this lack of target competition and they're like, this dude is good, and you make the argument, Okay, now you see the year two leap coming for him in twenty twenty five, Like, that's kind of the best case scenario for me. But it is tough for these fantasy wide receivers to finish as like elite options in year one, not only as a rookie but just in an OFFENSI environment where you won't see this outlandish you know, pass volume.

Yeah, I would look at touchdowns as a bonus to whatever he does this year, Like I'm not coming in expecting him to get you know, more than like five touchdowns. That's what Zay Flowers had this past year. And I was kind of us a season as a complex, say, Flowers one hundred and eight targets, so you thought of him as the number one was a wide receiver aside from Mark Andrews seventy seven for eight fifty eight and five twenty four percent target share. He was good in zone. Like if you put up a season like Zay Flowers, you'd be like, wow, they drafted this guy. They really target him, you know, they used him. And then on the really high end, I think what you want to get this is the easy comp But you're getting eighty five percent of what Keenan Allen was to this team in terms of like you're just funnel targets. But his game is more of like a Jordan Addison, Like don't don't pencil in Lad mcconkeye as a slot guy, Like that's not what he was at Georgia at all. He's all over the field, So I think he's more of a Jordan Addison. He can kill zone and then he's getting the type of target share we care about. I mean the target competition here is begging for him to see I don't know, twenty plus in year one.

On like a market share standpoint, I mean, yes, yeah, I mean the Zay comparison I think is really interesting. But there's no Mark Anders on the team, right, It's like, where would you set the line for like his targets this year, Like the number that came into my mind was like best case scenario, not even best case probably honestly, Like Median is like, if this guy gets on the field right away and he's as good as we think he is, could he earn one hundred and twenty targets and you're one?

I think I think the meetian outcome for me is one hundred, but I think one hundred and twenty is definitely on the table. Excuse me, But what it comes down to is just health and if this offense, like I think he can see it because the other dudes on this team, like they're just not target earners, right.

I mean Josh Palmer seventeen and a half percent is respectable. It's like wide receiver two to three numbers for the NFL Quentin Johnson's rookie year. Man, I mean, we talked about it at length. We don't have to go into it, but thirteen point three percent targets for outrun is horrific. DJ Chark Kyle I found this out today when I was researching for the show. Is on his fourth team in four years. He is just bouncing around one year contracts for like Remil, just just bouncing around in the NFL, you know, city to city. We did it work for those people? No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might. But but it might work for us, Hey, it might work for the Chargers. It's so funny to see how Ditch Shark does that every year. But for reference, he's at twelve point eight percent last year to earning targets. That's worse than Quentin Johnson. So like it's lad.

Honestly, I think for a median outcome is what I'm asking is him to earn targets at eighteen plus percent. I looked over the last decade a second round wide receiver, the average targets per out run was eighteen point eight percent. So if you get him in that range, it's kind of where Jordan Addison was last year, you'll feel really good. The comps for second year wide receiver, second round wide receivers that are kind of fitting this mold. If he puts up a Christian Kirk type career, I think you'd be very very happy. I think you'd be a little like I wish there was more, but he's consistently earned targets throughout his career, got a second contract, and I would say that he's the number one right now on the Jaguars. Like this, it's a big deal. I'm afraid this is the comp that I'm afraid he's going to turn into is Sterling Shepherd, who was taking fortieth overall. You know, he ran a ton of outs his rookie year. He actually had eight touchdowns, but he's never quite earned targets at like this elite level. I mean, they had Beckham and everybody else. But that's kind of the career that, like you would be happy with a long career in the NFL. Shepherd got injured a lot recently, but somewhere in this Christian Kirk, Sterling Shepherd. Even what Jayden Reid did last year was really really good, exceeded in the touchdown department, but like beat Zone, like that's the median outcome. I think for lad Maconkey, the low end is not as kind though. And I want to see if this, if you think this is in the realm, because no one wants to talk about this right now except for the people that saw the videos of him running around were like, Oh, this dude's small. So what if on the low end, what if he's Elijah Moore? He can command targets? And he did early on. Remember Elijah Moore's rookie year, he had like that stint from week nine to week fourteen where he was just really awesome. I don't know why I remember those weeks, but that's what it was. He was good, and then all of a sudden, yeah he was really really good. He gets hurt going to next year, You're like, he's the breakout, they have no one else, and then all of a sudden he evaporates and can't do anything with his targets. Can he get open? Sure? But Elijah Moore was probably the worst player in DFS to roster this past year because he did nothing with his target. So Elijah Moore Anthony Miller are second round players that targets per out, run look good, but they didn't do anything with him. And that's the only thing I'm afraid with Mconkey.

Yeah, I mean, it's it's a fair you know, range of dock cooms to suggest, because that was kind of the argument with Elijah Moore is like you saw it in a year one. You saw enough that you're like, in year two he's gonna be great. And then apparently he and the coaching staff just hated each other or something got put in the doghouse and never really recovered. But he's he kind of showed you what you wanted to see in year one, and I think you're gonna see some of that stuff with Lavin Conky. Now what does he do in year two? That's a complete question mark, I will say, just with those two players, like the prospect evaluation, if I remember Elijah more like kind of one of the knocks was like he wins downfield, but he wins a lot from the slot where it's like these kind of like slot fades and like he gets downfield and he's not just a slot wide receiver. But his explosive plays mostly team from the slot, and to me, I don't see that with Lad, so just from like a tape standpoint, but I I can't argue like I see the path where that happens, you know for sure?

Yeah, I think he's one of those players that feels like we'll give him a pass. We'll say, oh, it was year one in Greg Roman's system. If things don't go well, he got hurt. It's been a limited sample size. We trust justin Herbert. Oh, look he did get open. So I think he has a high floor based on value where he goes next year. And he's a player that if you took the end the first round, like you gotta feel happy. He doesn't feel like a complete boom Bus player based on his ARC type compared to these other wide receivers and what he can do. So yeah, we're big lad fans, and I'm sadly at Chargers as my second team.

Real quick Coyle before we move on, I will say on the Elijah Moore type of thing, like if he has that sort of rookie season, Remember, Elijah Moore had a ton of value in the off season after his rookie year, So even though you think about him now and it's like, well, no one wants that guy. Well, after year one, everyone wanted Elijah Moore, So like, even if that does happen, this is a player I think where you still have really good value, whether it's you know, via trade or whatever in year two, if you're not a believer, I think he'll still get value whether you're taking them in your rookie drafts. Now, we're in a startup in year two.

All right, let's take one more break and we'll be right back. From Lad McConkey to brock Bauers. We're gonna finish, man. I guess I was talking about Georgie boys. But here we are, uh taken by the Raiders. Surprisingly in the draft only twenty one years old. Our rookie rankings have Bowers a little lower. I think that was one of the pushbacks you gave in some of our rookie mocks bets that you were willing to take them a little ahead of me kind of in that like six seven to eight range of one quarterback leagues. We have him towards the back of the first round. In superflex, It's like we have him as a fringe one to two kind of pick and he's not going there. So just from looking at that, are we discounting Bowers based on like, Okay, well he's not gonna do anything rookie year, and so do you really want them? I think that's been Jason's argument.

Yeah, And that's it's more of like a you know, philosophical thing with how you approach rookie tight ends because you know, before last year, like the argument was almost always correct of like let someone else take them because they're probably not gonna do what you want them to do in year one, and then in year two the perception is different, so their value is down and you can really recoup them three or four years into the career and see the late breakout. That's kind of been the normal pure archetype for these guys. But Sam Laporta changed everything, of course last year, and Dalt Kincaid, and you know with brock Bauers, like I keep thinking about his profile coming out. It was better than Sam Laporta's, It was better than dun Kincaid's. It was better than all these guys that we talked about last year and the year before and the year before that. Like he was the focal point of an SEC offense as a freshman as a tight end. That is crazy, right, Like, this is a player that I think is very, very talented. I think he will succeed in the NFL. The conversation is just what does he do do in year one? Like is it a Laporta Evan Ingram Kincaid type of year where you're very excited about him in year two? Or is it the other side of what we've seen from rookie tight ends where it's like, well, yeah, the draft capital was there, Yeah, we were excited about him, but he finishes like the tight end eighteen in fantasy and now you're like, hmm, I wish I wouldn't have spent my first round rookie pick on that guy, because now I can get him in a trade way cheaper, Right. But I just believe in the talent so much that I'm willing to kind of ignore some of those concerns about rookie ted ends. I think it's just a difference in philosophy that me and maybe you and some of the other guys have.

Yeah, And I think if you go into it, if you're the type of manager that says I took Brock Bowers. I know the production profile. I know that he's good, and they'll figure it out, and he'll figure it out over time. Then you can be fine with it. But if you're going in thinking it's going to be gangbusters, I have a hard time seeing that right away. And that's just dependent on your team and what your team needed. And so you know there's drafts where I took Jonathan Brooks over him. It's like, I need a running back. I feel good about Brooks's short term value and I have another tight end, so I'm passing on Brock Bowers, and I think it's totally fine with the high end. So you mentioned Sam Laporta, who broke fantasy football and what rookies were supposed to do. We talked about him on the DFS and Betting Show, if you want to go back to that. This past week, I talked about his touchdown expectation and what he did. It's definitely tough to repeat that type of stuff, but that's a different best ball conversation. And then Evan Ingram put up a crazy season when he was a rookie, one hundred and fifteen targets. At the time, it was like, oh man, this is incredible, Everything's only going to be awesome, and then you have to wait five years until he does anything again. What percentage chance do you give brock Bauers to have this type of season? And the reason we say that is there's a high end, there's a median where like you know, a good sixty seventy percent of the outcome is going to be in that median range, and then you kind of distribute the high end and low end for that player. So on the high end, what percentage chance do you give him a rookie year to be gangbusters? And I would say a top six, top five tight end let's just put it that way, top five finish.

What percentage chances I give him to do that? Twenty percent?

Okay, I'm probably a little lower in year one, but like ten percent. And the point is is more saying like I have a hard time saying a year from now he's going to be the tight end one in startups, which is what Laporta is now, Like, that's that's the kind of leap that he has Like Bowers right now we have as the tight end five and startups, and I think he can hold that value. I have a really hard time seeing him go all the way up to tight end two unless other titands get injured, you know, if there's like a major injury to Andrews or Pitt's or Kincaid, and then he has to put up in my mind, to jump up to that kind of top end stage, like he's got to put up at least seven touchdowns, and I think that's easy to bet against.

Oh, of course, especially looking at this environment. You know, like the Laporta comparison is going to be. Now what we compare every rookie tight end too, It's like, well, if you're not the Porta, like you didn't really have that great of a year. But like think about the Laporta situation, like the offensive scheme was awesome with Ben Johnson behind Aminasaint Brown, there was no one else, so like he was kind of the second guy in the passing tree because of Jamison Williams field stuff, whether it's the suspension or injury or whatever. And then it's like Josh Reynolds of the world running running routes out there, like there's a path for him to earn the targets that he needs to see. And then it's just the offense scored a bunch. They were in scoring position all the time. Right, It's one of the best offenses in football the last couple of years. You go to Las Vegas and you can make some of the same arguments where it's like, you know they've got Davante, but they really don't have a true number two guy. I mean Jacobe Myers. I think is is pretty good for a wide receiver two in the NFL. I would say he's probably a tier above Jamison Williams for sure. So is he the wide receiver two or number two target out of the gate? Maybe? Maybe it takes a little bit of time. Is he the third? How many touchdowns does this team score? Right with? Like Gardner Minshew and aoc who, by the way, are the same player like last year in their stats where it's so funny they were like the exact same and like YPA completion RAIDAR for expectation catchable target rate, they're like one spot of POT one spot apart in all the rankings. It's so funny, one spot of pot one spot of pot. So the quarterback play is obviously a concern. And then you also look at like Luke Getsy's offense, who's now the oc. I just don't trust Luke Getsy to do to create an environment that's conducive to elite scoring for the pass catchers. Twenty seventh in pace two years ago, dead last and neutral pass rate, and you know this past season thirtieth and neutral pass rate. Like Antonio Pierce hired this guy with like the identity of, hey, we want to run the ball. This guy's offensive scheme is conducive to running the ball. Let's bring him in, Let's run the ball. So like, I just have concerns that you'll see these you know, thirty eight thirty nine pass a temp type games from whoever the quarterback is. And so all that to say is I do see a path where he smashes in year one. He's just that good. I think it's quite unlikely, just given the environment around him.

I went on this rabbit trail my mind when you're like, I just don't trust Luke Getzi, Like I'm just like so many levels, like not just like play calling, but just like in life, Like I just I don't trust this guy. I just I think he's you know, a fraud a lot like great guy. Yeah, in his college days, he went to Pitt and then he went to Akron the Zips. He was a fun college quarterback. But this team with the Raiders, I think it's going to be one all season that we're like, what are they trying to do? Because it's it's clear with the moves they want to run the ball, and then you look at the personnel and it's like Zamir White can work behind Zamir White. I don't think we think it can work with Madison and whatever else they're rolling out there. And then the way the targets are going to be distributed is tough. With Devonte Adams there, so my median outcome for him. I hate this because he was drafted so high. Like if Bowers wasn't given the same draft capital, we wouldn't have the same expectations. You know, It's like, this is one of the best tight end prospects ever. He can dominate situation sucks if he put up a season that's similar Dalton Kinkaid. It has a similar role because Dalt Kinkaid was what a glorified slot wide receivers and Dawson Knox was doing most of the dirty work. That's essentially what this team is at king him to do. Like Ba hybrid type wide receiver tight end and put up a ton of receptions. I mean dal Kin Caid. We've mentioned this stats so many times, the fourth most rookie tight end receptions of all time, and yet it's going on notice compared to what Laporta did. So last year, dalton kin Kaid went seventy three for six seventy three and two. Okay, so the touchdowns weren't great, but we saw him earn a lot of targets. His success rate was almost sixty two percent, which is really good for a tight end. Ninety one targets. He was running enough routes that we cared about it. And this year dal kin Kaid has actually increased in value while other titands have gone down. So if he puts up a rookie season similar to this, you would be very very happy. But even this, like that's a lot of targets in this offense, Like would you can you see him get ninety one targets?

I do see a path where that happens, and it's so crazy, like the path to me is kind of clear of like if the Dalton kin Kate season happens, it's probably because Davonte does fall off a little bit. And yes, you might say that's not happening because Devanta Adams, but we didn't think Diggs would disappear either, right, And like Diggs was literally irrelevant in the last two months of the year where his target count dropped, like basically every week he hadn't had one hundred yards since like week I don't know, six or seven or something like that. Like he just disappeared in the offense. And yeah, it was scheme change and all that sort of stuff too, But like it is one of those things that we never think these elite wide receivers are gonna diminish. But we've already seen some early signs of the decline from Devonte. Well, I think, is he still gonna be good? Yeah, but is he gonna be elite DeVante that we saw three four years ago? I don't think so. And so when you look at like his yards per outrun, he's aduct with the catch, you know, perception, his yards per target, like all the efficiency has dropped every year of the last three years for DeVante. So if he does continue to decline and he's not the same player, there will be a little bit of you know, an opportunity for a young up and coming player in the back half of the year to earn more of those targets, very similar to Dalton Kincaid last year. So I think the comparison makes so much much sense to me, especially when you consider that the Digs DeVante career arc is very much kind of the same at this point in their career.

Yeah, we had a conversation a year ago where we talked about valuation and how to look at these wide receivers. It was Digs, it was DeVante, Adams, it was Cooper Cup and the way that we talked about him is like, Okay, they're at this age. You'd rather be a year two early. And I know it sucks if you're competing, sure write it out, but you'd rather be a year early on these players. Where now we look in twenty twenty four and you're saying, like Betts is talking about the declient, it's kind of been three years in a row just in the efficiency, and you look at that with Digs and you kind of see it with Cup and it sucks because these players at their peak were breaking Fantasy football. They won you leagues, but you can kind of see it go that way. So the low end for Brock Bauers. I just want to give this is a player that was drafted highly in the NFL, a player that came out as rookie year and you were left like wanting more. It was TJ. Hawkinson, And I just thought it was interesting when I was making all these comparisons of TJ. Hockinson and Sam Laporta because Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator, was on the roster or like part of the coaching staff and he became the tight ends coach and then eventually became OC So it's interesting to see the comparisons. But TJ. Hockinson as a rookie, like had competition at least other tight ends on the roster that were playing a ton of time. Like TJ. Hockinson had forty nine percent of the snaps, but Jesse James was playing forty six percent. Logan Thomas was on the roster also playing snaps too, And when you look at the routes, TJ. Hockinson ended up only with fifty six targets, and his targets pro out run was just good but not great. It was twenty percent. So my question is if you got this type of season from TJ. Hocket from brock Bauers. What TJ. Hockinson did, which is the tight end thirty one going in the year two, would you be like, Ah, this wasn't great. Even though Hawkinson has turned around, gotten a second contract, been a good wide receiver, but you wouldn't say t J. Howkinson's a great, uh tight end.

I mean he's one of the better ones obviously, but.

What would you be happy with that career?

I mean, I would be probably pretty happy with that. This guy's been tight end four ten to fifteen wasn't great. That was twelve games and then tight end two. Tight End four again missed some time this past year. Also, his rookie year was only twelve games, So even though he finishes the tight end thirty one, you know per game stuff is gonna be different. But still like, I'd be happy if I got a locked in top six starting tight end option every single week am I league? I'd be happy with that.

Do you think that people have higher expectations, yes, than TJ. Hawkins.

They do.

That's the problem. That's the problem, because I think you and I would be happy if I knew I was going to get this type of like upside and you know and t J. Howkinson's benefited a couple of times from Jefferson getting injured and some weak rosters with the Lions. But the expectations are that you're getting a play that immediately is going to be able to contribute and become that. And I think it's gonna be a slower burn or an up and down where the TV's hit. One year he gets eight touchdowns and the next year it's four, and you're like, so, where are you at in terms of Bowers, Like it's somewhere in between there because and I can't quite figure it out of like the expectation for him.

Yeah, it's it's a fair point. And the Hawkinson thing for like his rookie year is actually very interesting when you consider the snap count and kind of the route participation, Like he really wasn't a full time player. Now I think Brock Bowers is going to be. But this team just drafted Michael Mayer, what thirty fourth overall a year ago, different front office, like different regimes, so clearly like not the same vision for how the offense would work. But this guy is probably still going to be part of the part of the team, right, Like they're gonna run a ton of two ton end sets. Is it going to be like Bowers split out a little bit and then you know mayor in line Like I don't. I don't know. So I do see a path where it's like they just used because they're like, man, he was a thirty fourth overall pick last year, so you're not seeing the elite rapt participation in the elite snap rates that you wanted from Bowers right away. So I think that comparison is really good. But I still have high expectations that you're gonna see enough in your one that you're very excited about this player end in year two. That's how I feel personally. I just think he's that good of a prospect. Again, we're making all the comparisons in general about rookie tight ends, but this dude was the focal point of Georgia as a freshman. Like, he is so good at football. So I've heard they've got him involved as a runner on end rounds. What tight end does that, Kyle?

No one like John new Smith.

Oh true, true, Johnny does do that. But he's just so talented. I think it's gonna work out, but we should be realistic that it's not it might not be incredible in your one.

Yeah, I think donkin Kate is a really good outcome. You should be happy about that. He'll hold value and maybe even gain value. I just wanted to give the scenario where you look at the totality of TJ. Hocketson's career you're like, Okay, I would have been happy with that, but after year one he lost value. Like, oh, I took this player who was taken eighth overall by the Lions and he was taking six overall and rookie drafts, and a year later his value dropped and you had to look at the long game. And so I think that's my main point is like you might have some bumps, be willing to hang in there, and yet our expectations are way better than t J. Hawkinson. I mean, the expectations for these people, and these people somehow delude themselves into thinking, now, the expectations for a lot of us is that Rock Bowers is going to take whatever we thought Kyle Pitts could do and throw it in the trash and say, you know what, I'm gonna be the tied end one over the next you know, ten years. And that is really hard to do.

But you know what's even about the Kyle Pitts thing, This dude still has so much value in dynasty leagues and whatever. Like every year we're like, but this year, this year is going to be different. So hey, even if it's a train wreck and you're one for Bowers, we're gonna talk ourselves into it next year.

So it's fine, Yeah, and Bowers is we're gonna keep saying, wow, he's still so young. Like that's gonna be the same conversation we're gonna we're having with Pitts. I mean, the stat that we've talked about many, many times is that at this stage in his career where Kyle Pitts is at, Travis Kelcey had not caught a pass yet at this age, Like it's just like there's so much room and time and you can forgive and forgive and move on and then you can have David and Jocus seasons where you're like, oh cool, this happened out of nowhere. I was not counting on you, and now you're my tightened one like that can happen with the tight end position. I do want to recommend this as a resource we have in the Dynasty past, the Dynasty life Cycle article. TJ. Hawkinson is the cover boy, and so that's part of why I used him in this comparison. But the Dynasty life Cycle series by Marvin Eloquin goes through each of the positions, kind of shows you the ebbs and flows, and with tight end, it is pretty slow at the beginning. I guess we have to adjust for laporta. But uh yeah, so make sure you check that out Ultimate Draftkit dot com if you want to be a part of that.

Betsy, Yes, hope everyone has an awesome week. We should have a baller back with us next week. We'll see who it is. But more Dynasty stuff come in your way. Check out the UK Plastic See you next week.

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. If you want to take your Dynasty skills to the next level, check out the Fantasyfootballers dot Com

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