Biggest team offense changes and more on today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast! Borg and Betz discuss how dynasty managers can adjust their expectations heading into the 2024 season! Plus, TE premium scoring talk and how to approach the tight end position in startup drafts. Jayden Daniels, Calvin Ridley, Saquon Barkley and many other players discussed! Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for June 19th, 2024.
2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT & DYNASTY PASS available now at UDKPlus.com
Connect with The Fantasy Footballers:
Love the show? Leave us a review wherever you listen
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a Baller.
Welcome in Wednesday, June nineteenth. I'm a Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty podcast. You get a two pac today. I'm your host, Kyle Organoni and I'm joined by Matthew Betts.
Corporate has decided they're not working this week, dude, so you and I are I think in charge, I mean basically of not just the show, but the entire company for the week.
When corporate leaves and when they just take all of the things that they have in their corporate handbooks, you know, trying to get out with all the investors everybody else. You know, it's like we're gonna do our own thing. They're gone the investors, the investors, guys, it's uh fans, footballers, it's us. It's the people you see. Those are the people that are in the company. There are no other investors. But yes, ay, Mike and Jason take one week per year where they're all off. They it took them almost ten years to figure out that maybe, just maybe you should be able to all take off the same time once a year. So yeah, this Dynasty episode is just gonna be Betts and I getting to give some football takes. Are we allowed to do that? Are we allowed to say that on a podcast?
I think just maybe once per off season we can really, you know, dig deep here and come up with some football guy takes, you know, take Kyle out of the spreadsheets for just one episode, please switch. You know, people are tired of that Kyle. They want the hand of the dirt takes, you know, buckle the chin strap. They want to know what I'm sitting down on Sunday on my couch watching football, which I'd be looking for this year, and more importantly, how is it going to affect my my Dynasty roster? So I'm excited to talk today. I think it's going to be a little bit of a different show than maybe what people are used to hearing, but still I think very very valuable.
We try to give a collective or the word we use for our company's holistic approach to fantasy football, where it's like you could just look at the numbers, and yes, I do enjoy a good, conditionally formatted spreadsheet, but there is a part of the game that comes with just what your eyeballs tell you and the way that a team is set up offensively the scheme. So we're going to talk today about a couple of teams that have some changes this year, and then what it can mean on the actual NFL field, you know, snaps, what does this team do in this personnel, and then how that trickles down. I think one of my favorite ways to think about fantasy football is that it's nuanced. And you and I talk about this all the time on the DFS and betting show, that you can be in or out on a team or a player in almost every single format. You do not just just have to have one take and says, this is overarching everything. So for dynasty, we're gonna talk about what this needs for this team this year and beyond. But for best ball, you know, for DFS when we talk about that, when we talk about redraft leagues, keeper leagues, whatever, it's all about opportunity costs. So some of the players like I can't wait till you get to hopefully take off your Eagles cap and just actually tell us what you think about this team. But you know, there's an opportunity cost to acquire AJ Brown that's different than DeVonta Smith, And I would argue that I'm kind of in on DeVonta Smith right now as a I think he can give you ninety percent of AJ Brown at a cheaper price. So that's a different conversation than it is in Best Ball than it is in DFS. So it's a nuanced approach.
Right it is. And that specific mention of of DeVonta Smith versus AJ Brown really, you know, hurts Kyle because last year on this Dynasty show, I think it was with Mike right around maybe like mid July, we did hot takes episode or your bold takes for the season, and one of mine was I thought there was a chance that DeVonta Smith could out score A. J. Brown and fantasy points. AJ Brown looked up the offensive player of the year the first like two months, so that did not work out. The other one was potentially that Christian Watson was going to the moon I believe was the direct quote, don't quote me on that, and spoiler he did not go to the moon. So over two on my hot takes or my bold takes, but no bolt takes for me today, everything's just going to be, you know, even Keel.
You just need to make sure that you go back through in those episodes, put a little asterisk next to it because second half DeVonta Smith did, And that's really what you were trying to say.
Obviously. Yeah, of course, if you.
Want to get all of the rankings, you can get them in the Ultimate Draft Kit plus or Dynasty rankings, Dynasty startup rankings, and our projections that are there in the Ultimate Draft Kit. I will be referring to a couple of different projections that we have for Anie, Mike, and Jason. I think a lot of times people think about rankings and they just kind of think of a list, a linear list. But the way these are built out are real projections based on play calling. So when we get to the commanders, for instance, the Cliff Kingsbury system is very different than what Eric b Enemy was doing last year, and a ton of empty calories for Sam Howell. So we go team by team, we look at their play rates, we look at their efficiency, and you know, when we compare those, we can actually see how the projections line up for someone like Jadan Daniels, Johan Dotson, the rest of the team, the senator Ben Sennet, like all of those players, comes down to real projections, So you can get those in the Ultimate Draft kit if you want to look at our projections. But quick question for you. This is from Discord from Daniel. He asks how valuable? And I think this is a good question for Dynasty because I think this format is more popular in Dynasty than it is in others. But how valuable is an elite tight end? I'm in a tight end premium league for the first time. How should I value tight ends in a startup with tight end premium? So I think this is a two part conversation, how should we value tight ends? And then tight end premium? What changes in that? So there's some people out there that saying, finally you're talking about tight end premium. This is my league format and I love it, And I just want to say I love those leagues. I'm in some of those leagues. It does not change everything you know in a tight end premium league, but the scoring did. Last year. For instance, Evan Ingram would have been the wide receiver six. If you were in a league that provides one and a half points for receptions. Samuel Porta would have been the wide receiver nine. So it does elevate a lot of the other guys, and then some of the titans that you would have normally played now become more flexworthy in these types of leagues. So let's talk about that just for you and general off the start, like, are you approaching them differently in a startup and how much more?
Yeah, I think you should approach them differently, especially the i'll say elite and elite plus guys, meaning like I don't think a lot of people would have considered maybe like Evan Ingram an elite tight end as they would a Laporta or you know, Kelsey, not of this year maybe, but of past years. And it can be one of those things where if you don't adjust for that, you might be missing out. It's some upside on your roster, especially as a flex decision or a starting player in your lineup. What you just said, you know, six of these guys finished is the top twenty four overall pass catchers in this format last year when you consider combining wide receiver and tight ends like one position, there were six tight ends in that group. Obviously, in the top twenty four wide receivers, the top pass catchers in most standard scoring leagues, you're gonna get like maybe two or three most seasons, so it does elevate those guys that can give you volume for sure. And the names in the list are the guys, right, It's like Laporta, Hockinson, you know, Kelsey Kittle and Joke who had a really nice run down the stretch last year. Those guys made the leap. I would be very very careful overvaluing like fringe or bench guys, either as a trade piece on your roster or in a startup where it's like, you know, I'm trying to think of a good example of like you know, Cole Comet, Like he's fine, it's like you're tight end two in Dynasty or something like that. But like just because it's tight end premium doesn't really make me more excited to roster him. But if I have Evan Ingram or I have Laporta, not only am I excited to have them just period, but now in tight end premium, I'm very very excited to add those guys because of what they can give you in a PPR format. So just make make sure you're not overvaluing like the fringe tight end two type of guys. I think that's where people get in trouble.
Yeah, tight end, let's just call it. Seven through twenty is kind of the guys that get elevated a lot in startup drafts where it's like, oh, I want to double up here because the rest of the league isn't doing this, But the elites are the elite, and in this type of format, the rising tide lifts all the boats. Keep in mind, last year, twenty twenty three gave us the most tight end receptions in NFL history. I mean, Evan Ingram almost broke the record. Twenty three percent of completions went to tight ends as the highest and almost twelve years. Yet those receptions weren't that valuable. It was the fewest fantasy points per reception since twenty eleven, and we had the fewest receiving touchdowns to tightend. I mean, titan comes down to touchdown. That's what the position is is. They're never gonna be the position that's going to command a huge target share compared to the other ones. So you're gonna find four to five offenses that funnel their targets through the tight end position. But it really does still come down to touchdown. So for me, opportunity cost is really the name of the game, and in a startup draft, you will find people that look at tight end premium and then elevate all of the group, when if you're just starting one, it doesn't dramatically change for me anything outside of like round four or five, like the top four to five rounds. I get it, you know, grab your dalton Kin kid where you want to grab McBride, but the rest of the guys doesn't. If you have a league that doesn't, and some people advocate in these leagues you need a wide receiver tight end flex spot, then it does give some room for some of these tight ends to be more flexworthy in those types of formats. But I think for me, at the end of the day, acquiring an elite tight end in these leagues, they kind of get boosted up to be in that. You know, like you said, if Evan Ingram finished the wide receiver six last year, that doesn't mean he's that valuable. Sam Laporta is as valuable as a top ten wide receiver. A wide receiver is still more valuable to me in a dynasty format, giving the longevity, given the volume and some of these offense. So for instance, AJ Brown wide receiver five, Evan Ingram was wide receiver six, They're nowhere close. Evaluation in the startup league, even with tight end premium, it's just end of scoring formats. So in these leagues, are you trying to overpay for a tight elite tight end knowing that like those top five to six guys matter more.
I don't think I'm trying to overpay, but they definitely are more of a priority, like in a startup draft to me than otherwise. Now, you know, I still love elite tight end in Dynasty, like just the weekly you know, positional advantage of being like I have Kincaid, I have you know, Laport or any of these guys that are you know, the top six or seven options. You just plug it and you set it and forget it every single week. There's something so nice about that. And you know that those guys too, especially this year, like the landscape has changed where it wasn't you know, for a while it was just Kelsey and then kind of like Tier two is like Mark Andrews, and then it was like the other guys, and now we have so much youth to position. So if I'm doing a startup now, then I am actually prioritizing those guys a little bit more. But it's always, like you said, opportunity costs and make sure you're not overvaluing overvaluing them too much, make sure you're not reaching when you know you want to make sure the positional value is there.
Tight End premium is a great idea, and if you're in one of those leagues that love it, like I recommend it and keep going with it. It should not be one of those things that you think every league needs to do that because anytime you try to correct the scoring format, the league is going to change. I just mentioned the receptions were worth less than they've ever been for the tight end position. So although the scoring might have helped your league, they weren't nearly as valuable. So there's there's a give and take last question here because like in a tight end premium format, you're in a rookie draft. Brock Bauers is there. Does that boost him a head of guys like Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman in that like one oh four one oh five range. Let's say it's non super flex.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know if this is a hot take, but I would not be taking brock Bowers there personally, like above Worthy. I think that's kind of where the cutoff is for me. But you and I have talked with Jason and Mike, and I think I'm maybe the highest on Bowers out of the three of us. Of like, if you wanted to take Bowers at the one oh five in just a standard one quarterback league, like, that's fine. I think that's totally cool if he is that type of prospect, which I think he is. And so yeah, in a tight end premium like I'm certainly taking him over Keon Coleman, I'm taking him over Labmanconky, I'm taking him over all those guys who, let's be honest, like those guys, we talked about it at length. You know through the off season. The profiles are not incredible. Brian Thomas Junior even has some red flags in his profile, right, So, like, if you want to take Brock Bowers over those guys, especially in tightand premium, I think it's not only what I would you know, do personally, it's what I would recommend doing.
Yeah, and last little stat I'll give here is that tight ends were just less involved in the red zone last year. And I don't think that'll stick, But only twenty five percent of the targets in the red zone went to tight ends. Previous year was twenty seven the years before that it was thirty percent. So with an increase in zone coverage, you're going to see some of these targets changed. And I think the NFL it over corrects itself year to year, like we're and we do this in fantasy all the times, like, oh, this is what happened last year. The NFL is going to change. Yeah, just do what do we did last year. We just pick all the players that you should have picked last year, but now they're more expensive this year in every single format. But that'll change. I mean, only one hundred and forty three red zone touchdowns to tight end. I mean a couple of years ago is almost two hundred, So that'll change. Things will shift and be different. But in tight end premium league, I love to get one of those top five to six guys and you and I love Mark Andrews because I think he's cheaper than he should be in a dynasty league. So he's kind of the last of that tier of younger guys and elite guys that I think you can get in a tight end premium league and then tight end ten through twenty. I'm happy if I get them. But I'm not elevating them as much. If the rest of the people in your league are overvaluing them, I think that's what happens mostly is the rest of your league sees Titan premium, they push them up the draft board. You feel nervous, But at the end of the day, if you have your one guy, then yes you can get some flex worthy weeks. But I mean, Titan fifteen through twenty is just rotating every year. It's just a bunch of dudes. It's the Chigacnquos of the world.
Some were calling for a breakout last year, Kyle, I don't know who that was. I can't remember off the top of my head. But you know, also a spoiler alert, he did not go to the moon.
You know the numbers said. The numbers clearly said that chig oh man, it was all there. It was all there with the breakouts.
Maybe we'll talk about him today.
We will talk about I forgot we're talking about the Titans today, So let's jump into our football guy takes storylines. Thanks Mike for that drop that we never ever ever use.
I was gonna say that he just make that.
No, it's we used to do a little segment called storylines, very very vague on the main show. I think it was twenty eighteen, and so I thought this was a chance. When corporate's away, we can just do whatever we want.
You hit random buttons and see what happens.
Yeah, we're gonna get some football takes here, And by football takes, what we mean is we're going to go through a couple of different offenses that have some change heading into twenty twenty four and kind of walk through what it could look like on the field for these teams. We've discussed certain teams at length. I almost hate that the Falcons are one of those teams that everybody's talked about in the offseason what could go wrong? But you know, there's a lot of changes into this team and the mistakes they may have made in the draft. But the Charge are another team. We did an entire episode. Who could forget the March twentieth episode of Free Agency Impact and Team Opportunity. I mean, you have that on repeat, right?
What a show? I mean imagine not listening to that thing. You know obviously once but twice three times? I mean, what an episode that was Kyle.
And nothing we said was clearly out of date. Everything we said is just applies right now in June. It's the It's one of the worst parts of what we do. I think about that a lot in season. Nobody goes back to listen to a week six Waivers episode ever again it's relevant for yes, Waivers in season relevant for about forty eight hours, maybe forty eight hours, and then just completely relevant, never ever to be heard from again. So at least in the off season, some of the stuff still holdstro oh, and I hate the comments that are like everything's not up to date. It's like, you know, any recording is just old news. So I'm just waiting for something to happen with Brandon Ayuk and we look like an idiot for not talking about it.
Well, as long as it doesn't happen in the next twenty four hours, we're good.
Okay, Well, we'll see what happens. There are nuanced conversations with offenses. Okay, So we're talking about this from a scheme perspective. What could this mean for Dynasty? What could this mean for twenty twenty four? And there's some teams that I wish we could bring up, Like I've spent a lot of time, a lot of soul searching with the Carolina Panthers and Dave Canalis and figuring out like is he a real miracle worker? But I'm still working through their scheme because I don't know, like, like just talking about this from this perspective, can I even take what happened last year and use that at all? Like with the Panthers? Can I do their stats even matter from last year? The Panther stats because they're bad?
I mean, the only reason that I would use them and say, like this is where this team is coming from, which is the basement of the NFL. So we get we get in trouble saying this all the time, but like it probably can't get worse, right, So I think that it's a good reference point to think about where this team is coming from and where they could go with Dave Canalis, you know, and we've talked about him and kind of the coaching changes a little bit and how that worked in Tampa, and now we have a two year blueprint where it happened with a couple of seasons ago when he was, you know, coming from another organization to go to Tampa. It was like, well he's gonna do it again. He did it again, So like the revival situation with Canalis is there and the narrative is there, So like, if it doesn't happen a third time, it's like, oh, what are we doing here? Maybe bray Sung is that bad? So yeah, I think it matters, and I think you know it does. Like I said, give you a reference point of where he came from.
I think for me, I take big concepts like how does this team do against zone? How are they successful against zone coverage? Which is another big category. You know, there's coverages withinside zone that we talk about, cover three, cover four, we'll talk about some of those today. But how can this team take some of the concepts of what this guy has done before with different parts. I mean, it's not just as simple. Here's the offense he ran there, Here's how it's gonna work here. Seattle had three wide receivers or has three wide receivers that look very different than the ones that have been in Carolina. Same thing with looking at Tampa Bay. You can't just take Tampa Bay and say that is the exact same situation. He will do the same thing in Carolina. Mike Evans is a little just a little different than Jonathan mingo. It's not the same.
But they're I mean him and Terrace Marshall about the same though.
Right, both are on a Hall of Fame track. One of them is a little bit slower, slower to get there.
Yeah, I break out here we go.
I think he's I think he's your four man, you know.
Okay, so maybe maybe, but maybe it is year five. Maybe this is another down year and then it happens next year.
He's not going to make the team, is he?
No, certainly not.
Okay, well, oh well he tried. All right, let's take quick break and then we're going to talk about your Eagles, Betts. Take out all of your homersm everything you've ever thought about this team, just placed it aside for a little bit. Okay, Now we actually are gonna talk to Bets about the Eagles, because you know, he knows a lot about them. But I think you do have a pretty good sobering approach to a team that down the stretch where it was terrible.
I mean just got there.
I mean through the first twelve weeks they were ten and one third points per game, fourth and place per game, and then it just fell down hill where it was one in five. They lost the Buccaneers, and from a football perspective, this team ran into a couple issues. One, it was more man looks, including the highest rate of cover zero in the NFL. Their team had to kind of transform how they played even though it was the same personnel. That's the part that's hard for me when I look at what they did offensively. Brian Johnson got fired because it's not like they had a catastrophic injury and you could just blame it, like this is pretty much the same team, and yet defense is kind of a adjusted against them. So, uh, the one high safety looks that they saw a lot, which is basically daring Jalen Hurts to beat them over the top. I found this out. He was the same in fantasy points per drop back against one high safeties in that span, as like Tommy DeVito in the Giants. Like they defenses figured out. They figured out that Brian Johnson did not have any creativity and the team just nosedives over the final two months. So from your perspective, did it just feel like it was very predictable over those last you know, was it six weeks?
Yeah, you could kind of almost feel it coming too, Like, you know, there was the Commander's game where like they barely edged them out and almost with the overtime or maybe digg it over time, I can't remember, but they almost lost to the Commander.
They just played them tough both games, and.
Then there was like another game right after that where they had to come back and win, and Eagles fans were like this is great or nine and one, this is everything's great, and I'm like, they can't keep winning this way. Like eventually when they face good teams, you know they're gonna get smacked. And then Deebo Christian McCaffrey just ripped their souls out and it was just done. That's like when the downfall happened, when they just got boat raced by San Francisco and that week and then things really fell off a cliff. You had a little bit of like the Jalen Hurts knee issue affecting his mobility. You had just variants right like they were winning those close games and they weren't. You also had I think just a locker room that like I don't know that anyone believed in either side of the ball, the Matt Patricia experience on defense or the Brian Johnson experience on offense, so there was just like disconnect between everyone and no time to fix it, like in season one week will not fix it, right. And I don't think Brian Johnson really had, you know, his play calling up the speed of where it needed to be. In today's NFL, it was super stale, almost no prestat motion. You know, Ajau line up over here, DeVonta Smith, you line up over there. We're going to go and shotgun with with Hurts and those are the plays. And obviously you know that can work every now and then, play to play, but the best offenses in the NFL are the ones that change it up all the time. Change the formation and change the personnel, change the looks, you know, play action like all these things. And the Eagles offense just got very very stale, and they said, hey, go, hey, Jalen, go win this for us. So that's kind of what happened in my opinion, down the stretch, And obviously you saw a massive falloff for your fantasy players on your team and just the team in general.
I forgot you mentioned Matt Patricia. I forgot that. Down the stretch, they basically like, let's mix up how we do this you know, we're getting killed the secondary. Let's make Hassan Reddick like a coverage guy.
Let's run three four scheme. Let's drop our best ed rusher into you know, into coverage here and they'll never see it coming. Not surprisingly, it didn't work out. So you know. The nice thing though, was like I think the team did a decent amount of self scouting in the off season. It was like, okay, priority one Darius Slay, James Bradberry or or on the back nine or or last whole of their career, like they're just getting they're just getting torched out there. Let's invest in the second notes. They bring back Chauncy Gardner Johnson, you know, they draft Cooper Degene like they kind of really I do think they self scotted Quiniya Mitchell in round one, like they kind of knew that that's not working. So at least you have that going from the front office perspective. But yeah, man, the Patricia situation was not good.
All right, So let's talk about what this offense can be moving forward, because it's Kellen Moore. So in theory, in theory, we can get more plays at least under center, maybe some pistol formations. But you know, this team was number one in shotgun rates, so what they've had working for them was, like you said, a very predictable play calling. Over time, I think if this team mixes up a little bit from just only shotgun and have more pistol formations, just things where you're creating more play action, the overall offense hopefully can be more efficient. Heurtz has eighty seven red zone rushing attempts over the last two seasons, So I'm worried that over time for fantasy things shift, things changed because we kind of say this is what's gonna happen. He twenty fifth all time in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in sixty two games. So I'm thinking about the way that they invested in this team with Sakwan Barkley, a new Sinner in Cam Jurgens who played right guard, but Jason Kelsey's gone. How do you see the distribution of the running game before we get to the pass game, because with Kellen Moore's teams, like, there was an issue last year with the Chargers running game, like it was a big issue, but it was also a personnel thing. They had some injuries and stuff. But how do you see the distribution of the rushing touchdowns with Kelsey gone and a different offense, Like they can't just say like, okay, we're going to keep trying the same thing it's been working, tousch push only. I mean this is this is a different offense.
It is, but specifically what we were talking about, like when they get in close. I mean, if you are one of the more analytically you know, minded teams in the NFL, which Eagles are, and you see that the touch push works on I don't know the numbers in front of me, but ninety seven plus percent of the time, why would you stop? And some people have argued like, well, Kelsey's gone, are they gonna be able to do it? I think they're gonna spend a lot of the off season trying to figure out, you know, replicating that and saying let's let's keep doing it until they stop us. So I still think when they getting close to the one, like it is gonna be Jellen hurts. But you know, last year this team kind of lacked like a true dependable goal line back, and what I mean by goal line is more like inside the five. You know, Swift was fine. I think he ran bad maybe on variants there, but like Kenny Giemwell is not the dude you want in there, right, Like, so I know, shocking and shot Penny didn't even get on the field. So you know, they kind of lacked like a dependable guy in all facets of the game. And that's why I think the Saquon Barkley signing makes sense. And so yeah, I do think you'll maybe see a little bit less in touchd on department for hurts, but still when they get on the one, it's going to be him's. And that's the worry for Saquon is when they get in that close. Is there actual you know, twelve thirteen touch on upside for Saquon Barkley in fantasy. I don't see it as long as the touch put there. But it's obviously a more efficient offense I think, you know, relative to compared to what he saw in New York.
Yeah, we have a great article on the site called Analyzing Offensive Lines effect on running Back Performances by Sam Disorbo, and I was looking at that article through the lens of Saquon Barkley and the massive upgrade that this team is compared to New York. So I think his floor feels really good, even at age twenty seven. It's hard for me to invest in a running back at that age, but if you're one of those teams just says like I need one year where I can count on somebody as RB one, Like I feel like the floor is so much higher than what I could have projected in New York, where he could have gotten all the volume in the world, but he was asked to pass block aton. I think it was nineteen percent. Is just a crazy rate of what he was asked to do compared to you know, other people. So I think overall Saquon's floor feels high, but I think the overall touchdown upside of fifteen feels like not even on the table at all. But the wide receivers is where I wanted to have the conversation because it feels like there's a massive gap in startup ADP of where AJ Brown goes, which I feel like AJ Brown is kind of comfortably in that tier after a'm on Raw where it's like you either want Pooka, do you want AJ Brown? Garrett Wilson, like those guys, Marvin Harrison, They're all kind of right there, and then you really have to go down or two or three tiers to get to DeVonta Smith. I'm looking at how Kellen Moore sets up his offense, and I feel like it sets up really well Donta Smith. So hear me out here. Last year the Eagles saw Cover four looks, which is like deep quarters, four guys back on the most dropbacks of anybody in the league, Okay, the highest rate, and against those types of looks. AJ Brown was not the wide receiver one for this team. It was DeVonta Smith. I mean his yards per route run against Cover four two point sixty five compared to AJ Brown's one point eight seven Fantasy points per route run, the percentage of team yards I mean DeVonta Smith, He's had forty two percent of the team's yards against the defense that you know people use the most against them. And Kellen Moore his schemes when he was in Dallas and last year the Chargers is very clear. I pepper the slot wide receiver over and over and over again. Do you think that they will use DeVonta Smith more in the slot where he's had a ton of success. I mean in twenty twenty two he had over three yards per out run against in the slot last year. He led the team in college. The dude, I looked up his yards per out running the slot at Alabama. Bets hold on to your whatever you're holding on to five point five to four yards per route run in the slot.
Uh, that's stupid, I know.
And AJ Brown's never really been used that way. Even in Tennessee only twenty seven percent of his receptions were in the slot. So I'm trying to put two puzzle pieces together saying DeVonta Smith is good against cover four looks, which they saw a lot. Uh, he's really good when utilizing the slot, and it seems like they'll utilize him more. And I I don't think Paris Campbell is the answering the slot, So it just makes me think this is a good scheme fit for him.
What's so funny about Paris Campbell? As I saw this the other day, it was like, you know, signs in Fantasy football. You know it's at the time, it was May signs. You know, it's May Paris Campbell hype in mini camp. It's like every year it happens. But no, he's not gonna be the answer in the slot. What's really interesting about that? Concept, you know, the last two years. And obviously it's a different scheme, so these numbers will not necessarily be the same. But just comparing the two players, thirty one percent slot snap rate for it about the Smith last year, twenty five percent the year prior. For AJ Brown, those numbers were at twenty four percent twenty six percent these last two years. So since he's been in Philly, slight edged to about to Smith in terms of his slot usage. And like you're mentioning, just in this Kellen Moore scheme, if that grows, let's say that gets up to forty percent something like that, Like yes, he'll get way more layup targets which he never gets right now, right Like a lot of those go to AJ Brown on the quick hitters, you know, the crossers stuff like that, whereas Devanta Smith, not the AJ Brown can't win downfield. Obviously he can, but Devanta Smith, like you're mentioning, is asked you that way more he was in the past scheme. So I think it's really interesting because and I would I would draft these guys kind of where they're going. Like I took AJ Brown on our last show last week at the at the one two turn, it was like two to one or two two, and Devanta Smith went a full round later or two rounds later. But I still think Devanta Smith is like a rock solid asset in Dynasty, and everyone views that gap between those two players as just massive. I think there should be a gap. I just don't think it should be as big as the market suggests. And like you're saying with this scheme with Kella Moore, if that does grow, then we're looking at a player who could easily have perform as ADP you know, in redraft circles or in Dynasty.
Yeah, I think it's just a goodbye opportunity for DeVonta Smith where there is a variable. I mean, aj Brown just got a bag. Smith just got a bag. So they're both well paid, they're both tied to this team. Hurts his paid. You kind of have some security of what this team is. I just think that this team there is a future where things look a little bit closer together rather than it's like there's a clear one, he's a two. I mean Philadelphia was just their motion rate last year, just eleven percent of their plays they put a man in motion, by far, the lowest rate in the NFL. That will not be the same under more who ranked seventh last year and seventh and pre snap motion rate, and I looked up this stet aj Brown was fifth in the league in receiving yards, so he was good. He had fourteen fifty six, but he had fewer receiving yards on plays in motion than John hu Smith, the great John new Smith. So things will change, and I think that the gap is closing. So my takeaway is, look at this offense, look at who they utilize in the slot, and just kind of, you know, pay attention to what they're saying in training camps and what they're saying over the next couple months and saying, Okay, we're seeing more slot looks for DeVonta Smith, and you can go back to this episode and just go ahead with it. So I also think you've seen this a lot too, Like this is gonna be a team that's gonna be paced up right, It's gonna go move fast.
Yeah, for sure. Last year they dropped to seventeenth in pace. The Eagles did with Shane Steichen. Two years ago they were first in pace, And so you were like, oh, baby, like we're getting plays per game, We're getting not just plays just to have plays, but like efficient plays, and it was incredible in twenty twenty two, really dropped off last year. Kellam Moore comes into oc. His offense is a ranked first, first, second, and fourth in situation neutral pace during his time in Dallas, and then last year with the Chargers there were fourth in pace and third and no huddle rate For fantasy. I mean, we love that. Not only do you add play volume, but you get players who are capable of being super efficient, which leads to just fantasy goodness. So I think both of us are on the side of things of like, let's just remember how good it was in twenty twenty two. I remember how good it was in the first two months of the season last year, and kind of just wash away the last six weeks because there's still so so much to like about this offense. The depth chart and now the scheme I think adds so much more excitement and fantasy.
So just like, remember the good times, Remember the person that you dated a while back, and how great that it is. But whoever your most recent person is, just delete them, just gone.
They're gone.
No never dating advice. When Waller's gone, we're given dating advice.
That's what people come here for.
Next team, we're gonna talk, well, we're actually going to stay in the NFC East because I think the Washington Commanders or another team that I think we have to just throw out a lot like you actually can throw out last year and delete it from your brain. With Sam Howell, I mean, this team number one in pass rate sounds great, led the league in pass attempts awesome. There wasn't a top twenty running back, a top twenty four wide receiver, a top twelve tight end. It was really bad. We haven't seen that since twenty fifteen. Sam Howell decided that he wanted to throw the ball a lot. Among forty five quarterbacks with six hundred plus pass attempts of the last decade, he ranked forty third and QB rating forty fifth, and sack grate in forty fourth and adjusted yards per attempt. That is called the poop poop platter. That is terrible. And if you had Terry McLaurin, if you thought about Johan Dotson a the second year breakout like me, you felt terrible. So is it okay to look at this team before we go to Cliff Kingsbury and just say I can throw out that scheme. I can throw out whatever Eric the Enemy was trying to recreate from Kansas City.
Yeah, I think so. And you know, part of like the the rationale for doing a show like this today is like if you were on the Washington stuff last year of like, look the enemy comes in. I think they could be way more pass heavy. You know, we think Sam haw could be like a sneaky quarterback too, and superflex. It was like, okay, all those things hit like Sam Hoow hit for Fantasy, the pass rate hit for Fantasy. It was great for that, but the players, as far as how McLaurin benefited or Dotson, clearly did not work. So yeah, I think the scheme change is going to be wildly different. I don't think they're going to come anywhere close to the top five and pass rate this year with Cliff Kingsbury coming in.
We've talked about this team a little bit on the DFS and Betting show. We took an under for those of you that care about win totals. This is like almost two months ago. Defensive head coach hires are not personally our favorites. Like if you look at guys that are not offensive guys since twenty eighteen. Only four of them hit their win totals in year one. And this defense has a lot, I mean a lot to work on. Dead last in points per game, yards per yards allowed, expected points per play. It was really really bad. They didn't have a pass rush and backwards hat. Dan, you can't run the same system that you ran in Dallas, Like it's just not gonna work to run the exact same heavy man coverage. You need the players in place. So defensive wise they have a ways to go, But offense is what we want to kind of key in on with Cliff Kingsbury and Jane Daniels. I have liked everything I've read so far where Jane Daniels has said I'm a rookie. I'm not gonna come in here and be a superstar right away. I need to figure this out. I like the humility and I mean, this is this is really good footballer stuff. He's been getting in at five point forty five and having breakfast and film with Luke McCaffrey. Does that change anything for you?
That changes everything? Dude? I mean, if if you weren't buying into the breakfast narrative with Cooper Cup and Matthew Stafford, you missed out, and I'm not gonna be sleeping on that again. I'll tell you what.
Oh but I did find another report that said once Stafford says he sees Daniel's eating breakfast at a different table with different players nearly every day.
So it's not just McCaffrey.
Yeah, the first piece of news sounds great, draft Luke McCaffrey. That's that's the takeaway right now. The second one says like, does he know where he belongs eating?
What I want to know is eating lunch with the senator. We're getting meals with Ben Sennett.
That's I don't know that information. So if you have some people on the ground, there's some great beat beat writers. John Kyme for the ESPN. You've been on a Commander's podcast before. We you know my next door neighbor is a Commanders fan. So ask here to the ground. Yeah, breakfast, the breakfast be So let's talk about how he's going to fit in. Jane Daniels with Cliff Kingsbury and this team despite having all that volume was kind of slow the last couple of years. But like, what did Cliff do in Arizona? Because I think that's the template we care about from three or four years ago with with Kyler.
Yeah, we kind of already have the blueprint, right like Kyler was a rookie when Cliff took over. And not to say that they're the exact same player, but you can make pretty easy straight line comparisons to the way Jade and Daniels plays with his rushing and mobility, to the way Kyler plays with his rushing and mobility. And with Cliff in Arizona, there were number one and no how to rate all four seasons, So from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two, they were top ten in pace in three of those four years that were first in pace two of those years. So you have upside for this team to lead the league both in know how to rate and pace of play. And with that, I just think you're going to see so much play volume this year than you did, you know, in previous seasons. And that's kind of the name of the game with Cliff, as we want to play fast, but they still like last year that you know, they were playing fast because they had to come from behind in every game, but they were playing fast and just chucking it. With Cliff, he wants to play fast no matter what the game script is, which I think gives you a little bit more of a floor, but also ceiling for Jane Daniels if he hits her fantasy and also his teammates.
I'm looking at the projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit and just looking at the pass rate because last year is at sixty four percent. That's not going to be repeatable hopefully year of years. So Andy Astham is the most pass happy around fifty seven percent, Jason's at a little bit lower, and Mike's even lower than that fifty four, which he just needs to bump it out one more number and we'd be just fine. But I think the problem when I look at a team like the Commanders is I want to buy into Jane Daniels and I have in a lot of different formats, like I'm totally fine. I took him in a super flex league where it's like, okay, he my QB one getting some upside plug plug together my QB two spot. I just don't know how this team is going to look with three and four wide receiver. Looks like a lot of empty plays last year. The reason why I was so bad on yards per attempt and John Dotson was a cardio king running six hundred routes. That didn't matter is that they were when they would run these looks. I mean they were tenth and eleven personnel, It didn't really matter who the third wide receiver, fourth wide receiver was, Like you got a lot of low Adot Curtis Sema targets. Jameson Crowder somehow was still alive. It just it just didn't matter what they were running out there. So with this team, we know the one, we think we know the two is with Dotson, McLaurin and Dotson. Does is it gonna matter who they're running out there? Is their wide receiver three and four? Because that's the Cliff Kingsbury system.
Yeah it is. But you know, when you think about not just like this team, but just top level perspective of what elite Russian quarterbacks do in fantasy, it's hard for them to support two guys on a consistent basis. Like if Jane Dennis is running for fifty sixty yards a game and he's taking off all the time, that's obviously pass attempts away for you know, the play calling and away from the counting stats. The targets to your wide receivers, So it's gonna be super tough for him to support two as a rookie elite options and supporting a third like flexworthy guy seems almost not possible, right, assuming Dots and an McLaurin stay healthy. So, like I like, Luke McCaffrey is like an interesting kind of stash for Dynasty. I'm not really that excited for year one, Like I said, assuming health for the other two guys, it's just gonna be hard. I think for him to support three guys.
I think what Cliff Kingsbury wants to do, or at least what he said publicly, is he wants to be more balanced. You know, I have a quote here where he says like, oh, I want to run the football and play action pass.
Not really, I want to run the ball.
No, he acts like he's too cool for school. Actually the whole time he does. Jane Daniels did not do a lot of play action passing in college, so there is something where his game at LSU. His play action rate was the lowest among the six quarterbacks drafted in the first round, one hundred and fifty fifth out of one hundred and sixty two quarterbacks last year, so it's not something he had to do a ton. The league average rate is about twenty three percent, but young quarterbacks, they're trying to get them in rhythm, it's closer to thirty percent. I mean, you saw that with Kyler. I looked this up with Cliff twenty seven percent, thirty percent, thirty percent, and then in his last year went down to nineteen percent, and then Cliff was out the door. So I think that's part of the key area that I care about with this team is that it can be somewhat balanced. Brian Robinson was good on an efficiency level last year and really good as a pass catchup. For some reason, I just don't know if the entire offense can function the way it can with an offensive line that has issues and just some inefficient running backs. So when I piece this team together, I feel like I'm excited about Daniels, I like that Dotson is cheaper than he should be, and then I don't really know if I want to invest in anybody else. Ben sent it's fine as a rookie. So That's where I'm at, Like on this team, putting it together.
You think he's fine.
Kyle the Year one in year one, he is fine.
If Mike we're here, Oh man, that's a good way to put it. I will also add just one other thing to like, we're not sure how the running back touches are gonna get distributed. I kind of think Brian Robinson is like a sneaky trade target, a startup option for you, like cheat, like I needed RB three for this team, an RB four because when it's it's a it's a bet on what Eckler showed last year of just being wildly inefficient. Like usually those guys don't bounce back. Not saying it can't happen, it's just historically that's a pretty bad bet. So if Eckler is just kind of done, then Brian Robinson obviously benefits. The way he benefits in this Cliff Kingsbury scheme is when they getting close, dude, they run the ball. Like every time. They are among the league leaders in rush attempts and rushing rate inside the ten yard line. We saw that bunch in Arizona. Assuming that holds and Brian Robinson get the goal line work, like you could look at a running back who he's never gonna give you explosion games but falls in the end zone once twice a game, and now you're talking about a weekly flex play, no questions asked for fantasy. So yeah, I think he's interesting if you want to get someone on the cheap.
Yeah. The Commanders are a team that you won a monitor on a couple of different levels. If their defense is really as bad as it was last year, sweet, you're gonna get a lot of opportunities for this team to sling it. But yeah, we took the under at six and a half earlier this year, I still feel pretty good about betting against new coach, rookie quarterback all those things.
Do you think they're going to run the same scheme that Dan Quinn likes with this personality defense, because it's I mean, you're talking about going from Dallas Michael Parsons and a bunch of other good players up front and a stack secondary full of playmakers.
I so I've known backwards at Dan for a while. How do you do kids? Dan? And from his days in Atlanta, he tries to run what he wants to run, and if he doesn't have the personnel, he still tries to do it. When I think of those Atlanta teams, he was like the man's man coach that I wanted to follow, but the identity to the team was the offense and Kyle Shanahan. So it's tough. When I look at the players that they have on defense, I mean they are like they don't have pass rushers at all, Like they were. I was looking up the stat it was like their pressure rate was the lowest in the NFL after they traded Chase Young, Montes Sweat. It just makes sense they don't have anybody there. And Dallas ran man thirty nine percent of the time cover won thirty four percent of time. They're not gonna be able to do that with success in today's NFL. So I think he's gonna have to adjust because it's not gonna work right away. I mean this this team wasn't just bad, historically bad on the defensive side of the ball and then historically inefficient on the offensive side. You can't just repeat those same things. So in year one, I don't expect them to turn around. But I think for fantasy, Jane Daniels can be quite fun. So let's take a quick break and we'll be right back. All right, I'm going to turn this over to Betts to start our conversation about the Titans. The Titans offense which looks a little different than the Tennessee Derrick Henry's and Ryan Tannehill and all those teams that were super fun to root for the last four or five years. But this is a different squad.
Yeah, big time. I mean, maybe the Chargers are number one in terms of like what they look like last year, which is what they're gonna look like this year. But the Titans are right there, and maybe the same conversation of just this team is not the same. And you look at the offseason moves. Obviously Mike Brable is gone, Brian Callahan comes over from Cincinnati where he was the offensive coordinator, and just that at the top is kind of where I want to start. It's like, you know, a Tennessee over the last six years with Mike Brabel. This team is Derrick Henry's team. That's the identity, right Like they were thirty first during that that timeframe in pass rate, dead last in place per game in thirtieth and pass ord of our expectation last year. So they don't get off a ton of plays and they run a ton and then you look at what has Brian Callahan done during his time in Cincinnati, second neutral pass rate during that season, So you're talking about a complete flip in identity. And then you look at their offseason moves. They let Derrick Henry walk, They sign Pollard to pair with Tadre Spears as like explosive backs in space, good pass catching backs. They signed Calvin Ridley to a massive, massive contract, bring in Tyler Boyd, so like they kind of are telling us with their actions of like what they want to do. That all sounds great, But Brian Callahan comes from three guys named Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T Higgins, and he's gonna try to potentially implement the same scheme, same guys, same guys. Will Levis, Calvin Ridley is not the same player he was in his prime back on like twenty twenty twenty nineteen. You know Tyler Boyd, who's clearly on the decline, and Daniel Hopkins, who, by the way, like to give him credit, he was still very very good last year from an efficiency standpoint, but clearly not in the same archetype of his career as Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. So I see how it works. I'm just having major questions of like can it work with this personnel because there's so many you know, red flags and will Levis's profile and we'll talk about Copra Ridley here in a minute, but like, this looks like a contract to me that we look back in a year, year and a half and we're like, what were they doing? Like the running was on the wall that he's not the same player, yet they paid him like he is a true alpha in the league, and I don't think he is anymore.
Yeah, they basically paid him like he was coming off his rookie contract, although he was, you know, he was coming off. That was the only memo they had in the front office, which is like this guy just finished his rookie deal, Like, oh, we got to pay him. Like he's twenty five, twenty six years old.
He's obviously in the prime of his career. Don't look at anything from last year. Just he's always on his last year as a rookie. Do sweet, we got five more years of this thing.
I do like that he was trying to figure out how to recreate it, and he's like, who can be the Tyler Boyd replacement? Tyler Boyd is in a perfect spot, the perfect time in his career to play this role for this team, so that Traylon Burks, who we will probably never talk about again, and play he's the gunner now right, it's over, It's done. What a waste of a pick by the way. Okay, So can this work? Is the question we're asking. The biggest variable is Will Levis And the hardest thing for me is that you have to look at the first game where he destroyed the Falcons with four touchdowns. The rest of the time, we're through four touchdowns total the rest of the way, and just ask in shotgun, which is what the Cincinnati offense was, can it work? Like? Can it work for Will Levis? So from week nine on he was dead last in a just completion percentage. Not good. We've mentioned so much, including his rookie evaluation last year, that he cannot see pressure. Fourth most sackson netspan. He was under pressure on forty five percent of his dropbacks and a lot of the pressure is related to him, you know, actually taking this pressure upon himself. So the shotgun numbers bets are not not good at all. We looked up his off target rate, which you can find on Fantasy Points data suite. It was worse in the league when he was just in shotgun and man fantasy points for dropback was bad. I that in itself says as a rookie he was not good. But remember the system that he was in Tennessee wasn't really stressing these concepts. It's not like they started out that you're saying, hey, Will Levis, by the way, you're gonna be a shotgun quarterback. The entire year it was we're gonna run this old school Ryan Tanniel offense, which I think his skill set from Kentucky, Like, that's not what he made him fun in college. It was him being trying to be Josh Allen and trying to be a play hero ball. So I think I can look at some of those shotgun numbers and say this isn't a Brian Callahan system. But I don't know if he can be Joe Burrow esque, Like that's not what he's good at. He's not accurate, he's not good. He can't push the ball down the field, which can't help. But can anybody get open on this team?
Deep?
I mean we were asking Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd to beat people deep down the field at this point in their career.
What I think you're really asking is Calvin can Calvin Ridley do it? Because at this stage, like you know, Hopkins is more of that traditional possession type of receiver Tyler Boyd just giving you slot snaps. And then it's like, Ridley, we need you to be the true alpha wide receiver one here and we need you to win. Shig, it's chick even gonna see a target this year. We need Calvin Earley to win in the intermediate and deep areas of the field consistently. And you know, last year's numbers were pretty mediocre, like one point five seven yards for outrun. It's fine, forty eight out of eighty four qualified wide receivers. Who's forty second and first down through out run? Again? Fine? But then you like, you look at his open score, which is the metric from ESPN, and obviously I think we would all expect to see some decline from like when he was in Atlanta and was just awesome, like in twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, he was just incredible, and then he misses his time, of course with the suspension, and comes back to a different team. He's later in his career, so like you would expect the numbers to fall off, but like they fall off massively. Like back in twenty twenty his open score was ninety, that was fourth best among all wide receivers and tight ends. This past year, forty first, the open score is fifty nine. So you're looking at a player who really is not I don't think capable of being like a true alpha anymore. I think those days are gone. He's twenty nine point four years old, So you're talking about a player next year that we're going to say, look, he's thirty years old. You know, he probably didn't have an incredible season. He has a massive contract, and now they're kind of regretting it. So I'm looking at this situation and trying to forecast, like where is Ridley's value going to go? Is gonna go up? Is gonna go down? I think it's almost certainly going to go down unless Will Levis just shocks us all. And that's what I think you have to ask yourself if you have, if you have Calvin Ridley is like is this it? And I've got him in a couple of spots because I just like had him on the cheap from when he was suspended, and like, I'm trying desperately to move him right now in my dynasty leagues, where I think he still has some value. But I could see this going pretty south pretty quick if it does not go well this year.
You know, when I look at the simple metrics for Levis and where he can be successful, it is the deep ball. You know, he he threw some prayer balls where he just said, please, I'm getting pressured, I'm going to throw it up there. Against zone coverage, twenty two point five percent of his past attempts were twenty plus ere yards downfield. That's wild. I mean the next clost was Russell Wilson at thirteen percent. So nearly a quarter of his attempts against zone we're just I'm chucking it deep. It's really hard for that to work. And his completion percentage against zone, uh, he was only better than Zach Wilson. So those are the kind of things. That's like, he's going to have to learn how to dissect a lot of coverages that just call for him hitting DeAndre Hopkins, you know, in routes that don't require him going twenty plus yards downfield. It's going to be hey, DeAndre Hopkins is open at six yards, you're gonna have to throw it to him there. So with Levis, we've historically been, you know, a group that's bet against him, and I think so far we've been like, Okay, well, the things we saw on film that don't work haven't worked in the NFL. The only other person that you can look at as comps of who's a player that came in the NFL with red flags against pressure and actually respond and then had a year two, three, four leap is Josh Allen. So I think my favorite comp I've given is that he can be at his ceiling, like sixty five seventy percent of Josh Allen, that's like his ceiling outcome. Do you see him being able to put up top twelve? Like, what's the percentage of him putting up a top twelve season? Because it has to come with him running the ball four or five times in the end zone and then Brian Callihan knows what he's doing. I mean, the percentage to me is like five percent. Maybe is that too generous?
No, the the number that popped in mind head was like eight percent. So you love him, you mean you compared him Josh Allen, not me. You said he's the next Josh Allen.
He really is. He is the next one. Every single player is the next Josh Allen.
By the way, I love it.
I just think it's really hard for me to go. And also a lot of young quarterbacks the way that they're kind of look at their play calling is I'm learning this thing, I'm learning how to do it. I'm gonna throw it my first read. So his first reading shotgun was at seventy two percent last year. It's actually been an issue with Trevor Lawrence where Trevor Lawrence is just continually said, I'm in shotgun. I'm throwing my first read seventy eight percent of the time, which is just off the charts. Josh Allen, which we'll talk about in a second, has been at like sixty percent, where like, okay, there is the play call, and yet I'm able to work through my progressions. Can will Levis worked through his progressions? They at least tried, all right, They didn't just throw them to the wolves again for the next year. They at least tried. They invested. I think we were just a little curious, like this is how you want to invest like you want to get Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd and like, I really think this team could have a speed issue. And that's like at the end of the day, like they don't have anybody who's just a pure speed merchant on this team. But maybe that's just too like a binary of just saying they don't have that. But any last thoughts on the Titans.
I will say, just in the Josh Allen discussion too, like you know, obviously you're kind of making a that's kind of the only guy that we've seen do this aspect of like everyone kind of laughs in the rookie year and then it was like, okay, mayble gotsath. Then here that does not happen, like the Josh Allen thing, which is always funny, and the same thing with like the debo comps. It's like those players are not normal. This does not happen. So when you make the comps for them of like this could be in the range of outcomes, you're talking like ninety nine percentile range of outcomes, Like it just doesn't happen, right, And even when he was in his second year, Josh Allen, he was still terrible as a passer, four point three percent touchdown rate, six point seven YPA three for three thousand yards, just over thirty three thousand yards. So if we're saying like that's kind of the blueprint of like what maybe could happen if you squit and see it, Will Levis has to run a ton, assuming that he doesn't make leaps and you know, strides to be a passer, he has to run a ton. Josh all On that year had one hundred and nine rush attempts. I just don't know that you're gonna get that from Will Levis. So it's a very thin bet. It's a very thin path. I see what they want to do. I'm just not convinced it's going to happen.
Are you telling me that the best comp for Will Levis is Will Levis?
Uh? Yes?
Sah yes, Sam.
Okay, good, there's some good deep analysis speaking of Josh Allen, though, I want to finish this by talking about the Bills and then just throwing something out there.
I could be wrong, okay, but.
I've been doing some deep guys on the Bills offense, and you and I have talked about this a lot, where the first ten weeks it was Ken Dorsey and they were paced up, Diggs was getting targeted. Diggs was good, and then something happened internally. They bring in Joe Brady to lead the offense. From week eleven on, they play slow, dig stank, he shipped out of town. His team runs the ball, but they were successful. There's a lot of like easy things to look at with this team and just say, like, this is what happened. This was good, this was bad. I'm asking the question about Josh Allen because this year we have a ton of variables, we have a ton of different things to look at. I mean, Josh Allen is coming off a season we had his lowest passing yards per game since twenty nineteen. Okay, but it's not like he wasn't chucking the ball. He was number one in air yards in twenty plus yards attempt, but his turnovers also skyrocket at fifteen of seventeen games through anet. Usually we just kind of wave the hand and say it doesn't matter. It's Josh Allen. He runs the ball. And yes, Josh Allen already is the second most rushing touchdowns of all time for a quarterback. He breaks fantasy. He's the quarterback I would take number one in a super flex. I love Josh Allen. I'm just asking the question, is there too many variables this year? Because one, Joe Brady has not really been the most well liked coat in the NFL through a couple of different stops. It worked for their little short you know, week eleven on, but a lot of people have kind of said Joe Brady has been a quarter offensive coordinator that like, over time the NFL kind of figures him out. And now you have a team that just vacated the most wide receiver targets ever for a quarterback who's being drafted this high in startups in redraft, fifty two percent of the wide receiver targets are gone, with Diggs, Davis, Sherfield, and Hardy all gone over the last five years. This is the eighth most vacated targets of any team. The most vacated targets ever is this year's Chargers, So that's a different conversation because they vacated three hundred and ninety five targets. It's a different team. I looked up the correlation between vacated targets and quarterback Fantasy points YPA completion percentage, it's negative across the board. If you have a ton of them, it's gonna hurt. Now, it's not a huge correlation coefficient, but the point is it's a point. It can that this team is recreating its entire wide receiver group and the best quarterback in fantasy is he going to be affected? So that's my first question for you, bets. Are you worried at all of Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir and MVS and Mac Collins being just meh? And they're trying to recreate all this stuff. They're trying to go moneyball recreating the aggregate, and Brad Pitt's like, okay, I already did that. You guys can't do it.
Am I worried about MVS being met Kyle? You know, why would you ever believe that? I mean, what has he ever shown you that makes you think you'd not be impressed? I think it's a fair point. You know, you look at what they had and the argument is like, well, the offense was still humming even when Diggs wasn't doing a ton. But like from an on field standpoint, like dig still respects coverage and a lot of attention on the defense side of the ball, and now you have, like you said, Coleman here the jury still out and Curtis Samuel as You're projected slot wide receiver with don Ka kaid As, like the top option I think is what a lot of people are projecting. I don't know. I honestly don't know how this goes. And I think there's a lot of for fantasy, a lot of excitement about like, well Diggs has gone, you know, Gave Davis has gone, Like someone here is certainly going to hit. But I feel like I don't know if this is zotic. I just feel like the more likely outcome is like these guys are all okay from a usable week standpoint, like week to week, like maybe it is a shakier week, maybe it's a Curtis Samuel week. You know, maybe Kean Coleman develops and it's it's one of his weeks where he has two touchdowns. But like across the season, like, I don't think we're getting like a top option here on a consistent basis outside of potentially dont k kid doo. I do like a lot I think the wide receiver room is not great personally, Like, I think Curtis Samuel's fine for the NFL, Like he's good for the NFL. But a lot of times those types of players, like they kind of have shown you who they are over time, and we kind of know what Curtis is now where he's not really asked to being to win downfield at all or create explosive plays. He's kind of this manufacturer touch guy close to line of scrimmage, you know, quick hitches, drag routes, stuff like that, where it's like it doesn't really move the needle a ton from an NFL standpoint for the offense. So yeah, I could see a path where it's like, man, Josh Allen did not have an incredible season throwing the ball for fantasy. Fortunately, however, he's still going to run a ton and run at the goal line. So like, I think he's insulated and he's fine, But my big thing is like, are we just chasing something that isn't going to be there for fantasy when it comes to those pass catchers.
Yeah, when you look at how Josh Allen works through his progressions, it's very different than when I talked about earlier of the throwing to the first read. Okay, he was thirty first in the NFL in throwing to first reads with three wide receivers on the field, so when they did have eleven personnel, he kind of was willing to work through it. Compared to the rest of the league. With two wide receivers on the field, he did the same thing. He was twenty eighth. It's very different than Trevor Lawrence, who that's what he does, gonna throw to the first read. Josh Allen's willing to have some time in the pocket. The thing with Josh Allen on that stretch with Joe Brady was he averages many passing touchdowns as he did rushing touchdowns. So that's really hard for me to look at projections year and year out and say, okay, can Josh Allen hit ten rushing touchdown? Sure, he had fifteen last year. We're not gonna project ten rushing touchdowns for him or Jalen Hurts. But it's it's it's just really hard for me to get there. He averaged only two hundred and forty three passing yards per game in that span. That's very different than Josh Allen. We used to see it with a ton of volumes So I look at this team and I see that they are one to have a pretty tough schedule right in this pretty tough division, and the rushing stuff, I can't argue against that. I mean, he was one of the most utilized red zone backs that includes quarterbacks and running backs in the NFL. He had more red zone carries than CMC last year. So I'm not saying that's gonna go away or they're just gonna not do it. It is a question of of saying, if his passing efficiency, if this team can't create big plays, if they run a lot of twelve personnel and they're asking MBS just to run nine routes, I think they're in trouble more than we think. And I think Josh Allen, we've kind of just said over and over again, Oh, he's just one, he'll figure it out. I'm just bringing up there's variables where QB one overall for the first time for me is saying like, I think I just bet against him being a top one or two quarterback. I still want him in super Flex and Dynasty. I just think for twenty twenty four, there's more variables than we think.
Yeah, I think that's a good way to sum it up to in just regards to like the market when you think about like ADP landscape, whether it's best ball, redraft circles right now, the kind of just are like he'll be fine, Like he'll figure it out, He's fine, And I think he probably will, but I think we need to acknowledge like there's a chance that that's not the case, because if Keon Coleman doesn't hit, if Close Shakira can't take a a year three leap and like be a true every down player, then yeah, we see offensive struggle all the time when they don't have the elite weapons at their disposal.
I mean, his price in a super flex league I think hasn't changed at all.
No, and and like.
I said, I would take him at the one to one, but I think there is a level of risk that we're not baking in for twenty twenty four in this offense. And that's just all I wanted to bring up, is like, hey, we can't just copy and paste what he's done the last three or four years.
For sure.
It's a different system. So there's more offenses that I would love to get into. I mentioned I've done a lot of research on Carolina and how it can work against zone coverage. We talked about Jacksonville. I mean, dude, we could talk about Pittsburgh one day if you just want to talk about Arthur Smith.
And I mean, you're all in on picking, so I feel like we almost have to.
I think I think I've convinced Andy that he's one of his I think he's on the short list.
Oh this year, spoiler, that's a little inside n I get there for the people I know.
Every year we get to this point and people guess the my guys, and I kind of say, like, Okay, I'm pretty sure these are your five or six that you are on your radar, and I'll usually get most of them right. I'll miss a couple. But I think George Pickens is standing up to be that guy. Chicago is an offense we've talked about a little bit. Could that work? And then man, me and you, I think we've talked about the New Orleans offense more than any other offense together, and it has to work. That's more of our standpoint, right.
I think. But man behind Chris Alavey, like you never we've talked about it. He's fine. He's like a fun deep threat wide receiver who could continue to develop in the league. But this team is so thin, so so thin on offense. If a Lave misses time, it's over.
I was going through their depth chart looking at projections, and I was like, man, if this team like loses a Lave, do that's why you have to get Chris Olave, no matter what, you have to all right, bets to them by.
Oh Man one episode. Yes, no corporate this week. I'm over back next week, but I actually will not be hearing I'm on bigh So when you're listening next week, Matil will be in the same We'll see you next week.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. If you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level, check out the Fantasyfootballers dot Com