Dynasty trade value talk on today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast! Borg, Betz, and Jason players who lost value over the course of the 2024 fantasy football season. Are they sinking assets in dynasty or can you stay afloat for another year? Plus, a film rewind of the Packers/Bears game! Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for November 20th, 2024.
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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a Baller.
Welcome back.
It's Wednesday, November twentieth. We're here Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast. I'm your host, Kyle Organoni, and I'm joined by Jason Moore and Matthew Betts.
Hey, New Boys.
Thanksgiving is one week away, which is crazy to say, you know, Turkey Days almost here?
November? Did November disappear for you guys the way it did for us? I was talking about that with my family. It was like, oh my gosh, we're in the second half of November. When did that happen? Our lives been crazy busy, But is that just this year flying by?
Or what's going on the last few weeks for I don't know about you guys. For me, I felt like I don't even know how to describe it, just like flown by.
The other night, my.
Wife and I were talking about Christmas gifts for our kids, and I was like, I didn't really want to have the conversation. I was like, it's we've got time, Like why are we doing this? And She's like, you know, Christmas is in like six weeks. I was like, what, like that's real. She's like, yep, so yeah, I'm with you, man, it is it has flown. But the NFL season, you know, the weekly like schedule just feels like you're on repeat every single week for eighteen weeks straight. So by the time we get to November, it always feels like we're, uh, you know, we're moving through Quicksand.
I do feel like this schedule, like you get to Halloween, we obviously had some big stuff going on in our country, and then I feel like after that, we didn't none of us really planned. And then for fantasy purposes, I didn't really plan on Week twelve being the bi apocalypse. That it was like I knew there is bye weeks. I understood, and then I look around at my Dynasty teams, was like, oh, I got backups, I got no, I don't have anybody, and I think everybody's feeling it. Like I started to feel like bad that I didn't plan well, and I realized that no one has a plan well.
And in a Dynasty league specifically, you know redraft leagues, you can plan a little bit easier. You've got a lot more turnover, you're picking up guys off the waivers all the time, and the waivers are ripe with options for bye week replacements injuries. But in a dynasty league, it's very, very difficult and sometimes impossible if if you don't have trading on in your league to truly prepare. It's not like when you're drafting these guys, you know they're bye week schedule three years from now or whatever, and then there's not a lot of guys on waivers to go after my main dynasty league. Mike walks in this morning, he goes, dude, have you seen your dynasty team? And I was like, I did not yet have a look at my main dynasty Like, Keith felt bad for you. Yeah, he felt bad for me because because here here are my running backs on the roster. Breese Hall on by uh let's see. Uh oh my my my page went away, Breece Hall, Travis etn Comedia Vidal, Bijon Robinson, Ty Johnson, uh and Kareem Hunt. So I have one running back who is actually playing, assuming that Pacheco is not the starter this week, and outside of that, I'm going to dynasty waiver wires to have a start. Like I'm I mean, who am I picking up? Am I just going with the Abdullah Express and hoping that the ankle injuries ahead. I mean, it's gonna be gross, oh man.
The fact that you even included Kamani Vidal in that list of players not available for you.
Yeah, I mean my point is it says a lot that is all of them.
They just be fun this week. It's gonna be a very low scoring week across dynasty leagues.
I think yes, And I you know, speaking of now, I'm in a dynasty league where I am running thirteen personnel. We're talking three tight ends. I'm gonna have to but it's you know, it's John u, Kate Atton, Will Disley, like, I actually like I kind of like this. So I feel like everybody's feeling it right now. And most leagues are post trade deadline, so you're not able to maneuver like you used to. But that is the fun part of the season. We're kind of gearing up towards playoffs. I know a lot of people are, hey, I have no shot, or hey I trade it at the deadline. I have this player and I'm making a run. So hopefully everything we got to talk about on this show throughout the season is getting to help you. And also the Ultimate dashboard. If you're one of those people you're trying to figure out your start sits, you're trying to figure out, like, what's there a mirror? Abdula is one of those players that's gonna show up on Dynasty waiver wires, Redraft waiver wires, and it might be one of those things where we say like, hey, you kind of need to start him.
Well, yeah, I mean, Zamir White will have to see a fees. I haven't heard anything on his his entry update.
I haven't seen anything.
Yeah.
I went back through Pierce's pressure yesterday. He didn't talk about him at all.
So yeah, which leads me to believe he might be fine when you can't find any information and there's not even a question asked Alexander Madison. Obviously his seems more severe. He couldn't return to the game with the ankle injury. So yeah, I mean, I otherwise you're talking about Cordero Patterson and you know guys that Kyle Hughes Check, you know, you just hope for a wacky play touchdown, you know.
Yeah, if you're starting Kyle used Check this week, I think it's time to start looking forward to we thirteen.
Yeah, I mean they're nasty and indeed.
Yeah, I have the fullback. I mean, Louby is out there. I think it's some leaks.
Oh I'm starting in this.
Week, baby, oh Man.
Dynasty is fun.
Man, You're at a point where you're taking the worst running game in football, the Raiders, and you're saying, you know what, the fourth string could be somebody that I made, like, cause Lowby's thing New Hampshire, I believe. Wasn't that the college you went to where correcked? He was a crazy pass catcher. But even that, it's like, Abdullah is gonna be the dude. Also crazy that we're still talking about a Mir Abdullah in fantasy football as just a name that's still in the league.
Yeah, I mean when I saw Dante Pettis run back the touchdown on special teams last year. There's some names that are just like, Wow, this middling, not successful NFL player is still around six seven years after the hope has died. You know. It's like you get that from Alan Robinson, right, Alan Robbinson's still around and you're like, Wow, that's that's crazy because he's doing nothing, but he was a great player. He's got a name that you know, carried him through a long career. But the guys that really never made it and they you know, they had a little glimmer of hope, but then they flamed out and didn't become a thing when they're there seven or eight years. I don't know if it's their agent, like they've got a real good relationship somewhere.
That's how it feels with John hu As, like somebody in Dynasty that I've just had never really thought about starting the last two or three years, and then all of a sudden, like I'm kind of counting on this guy every single week. Did not expect that for twenty four Fantasy, which, let's be honest, twenty twenty four Fantasy has felt like turning back the clock on a lot of players, and especially running backs that were old Like take all the Dynasty strategy that we talk about and just say, hey, whatever age Cliff I thought was there for these running backs, it doesn't matter this year. This is irrelevant all the top dudes.
It's it's an interesting season.
It feels really old school where it's like, you know, like for like three years, these last couple of years, the game was like, Okay, you gotta eat your stud wide receivers. You'll figure it out a running back. But it's like, man, if you don't have at least two of these, you know, top fifteen or so running backs, you're probably not winning this year. So good year for the running backs running backs matter.
Yeah, bad year for the flex as you called him, Jay Jalen Warren types. Bad year for those dudes, Yeah, who aren't really helping.
All right, all the insurance backs, no insurance policies are being cashed.
Yeah, Trey Benson has been a player that I just keep waiting and keep waiting, and he's been better recently, at least more efficient. But yeah, those kind of guys haven't really hit. Moving on.
Weekly rewind.
Every week we rewind the film, we do a deep dive on a player. This week we're gonna do a little collective effort where we zeroed in on one game. And I feel like the Green Bay Chicago game wasn't a shootout. There was the field goal at the end, that's kind of the big story, But I think what we wanted to zoom in on is the quarterback play of Caleb under a new offensive regime and then the pack coming off the buy. It was interesting just the way that they utilized their wide receivers. You saw a big game from Christian Watson out of nowhere. So, Bets, I'll let you start first, because I think Caleb and the Bears offense without Shane Waldron, who remember, he's a nice guy, we just don't want him calling in our plays. What did you see?
Yeah, it was really interesting and kind of refreshing to see, honestly, because you know, when you look at what was happening with Waldron there, like surprisingly, they were actually very past heavy with Thomas Brown, the new interim OC. They went a little bit more run heavy.
They slowed things down.
Their pace of play was down, and they focused a lot more on just get the ball out of Caleb's hands quickly and let's not put him in a position to fail, where like with Waldron, it seemed like it was like, Okay, let's drop him back, let's rely on our line, let's rely on Caleb to create and hope for the best. And obviously we saw that go terribly this past week. Though he had two point four to two seconds after the snap to throw the ball. That was the fastest of his career. I mean obviously one season, but of his career so far, they go out the ball out quicker. Nineteen of his twenty three completions were ten yards or closer to the line of scrimmage. So it was a very quick hitter, you know, screens, quick crosser, stuff like that, just to get the ball out and make it simple on Caleb. And on top of that, it was so encouraging to see them not just get the ground game going with yunder your switch a little bit, but like Caleb as a runner nine for seventy on the ground, some of those were designed. A lot of them were scrambles, but they were not the old scrambles of what we've seen the first you know, two months where it was like, Okay, the play is breaking down, I guess I'll take off. It was very decisive, very quick, and when he did it deliberately and made the right choice, it worked incredibly well for the offense. So yeah, I was pretty encouraged with with what I saw there from Caleb and the Bears. Hopefully that continues moving forward.
Yeah, I'm very hopeful for the Bears for Caleb Williams with the offensive coordinator change, I'm one I'm hopeful that they instructed him to run more, to use those legs because it's a weapon. He has that instead of just using the legs to scramble out and throw back across your body for plays that aren't working in the NFL, go north south and pick up yards. Because seventy rushing yards made an impact, and you saw it happen quickly into a play if he recognized that there was grass ahead of him, he just went And I really love that. And then I'm also a little bit hopeful for the Dj Moore side of thing. You saw some like get the ball on his hands stuff, a little bit more of the screen game that he's really really good at and set up well better executed than we saw with Waldron. So you know, at least some hope going forward, although you know, man alive the next the run of the next games for Caleb Williams to finish out this season, it's I mean, I think, I know, Minnesota's passing defense isn't great, but they're a good defense. Detroit they're passing defense. You know, they've got a couple of injuries, but I think they're a good defense. They're just a great team. San Francisco really speaking of a you know, a top defense, then Minnesota again, then Detroit again. It's just like that he doesn't get any layups. He's gonna have to make some three pointers here.
How would you guys characterize how I've talked about Caleb on this podcast, because I've done like we did the rewind, I think three or four times I brought him up.
I use hitter Man wasn't here, Okay.
I was just more saying that, like, I think there's a lot more that could go wrong as a scrambler and everything else and turnovers and the pressure to sack stuff. But like I'm able to hopefully look at this game and I did and go, this is why he was taken. Like he's a good quarterback. He can be a good quarterback in the right system. And so I think it just sustained a lot of things of like, Okay, well, in a lot of people's minds, Caleb's just been on this downward trend. If you are a dynasty manager of Caleb Williams, you should be encouraged by this. But Jason said, it's going to be a rough go of it, but don't abandon shit because of you know, an offensive coordinator that's never going to be in his life again, and we have to remind ourselves of that of a lot of these guys, it's like, you're giving this it's not good and then you get to switch it out. But on the other side of the ball, Jordan Love only dropped back twenty times, so there really wasn't a ton of film, but the plays were huge. He averaged fifteen point four yards per attempt, which is just not sustainable. And the thing I noticed is he just had so much time. Like the whole time I'm watching the game, I'm like, is he just sitting back there doing whatever he wants to do? And I checked the numbers. It was his highest time to throw. Where you talked about Caleb getting the ball out fast, Love just kind of got to sit there and wait and wait and wait and wait. It was the highest of all quarterbacks in week eleven. Is time to throw is three point six two. But I'm trying to figure out these wide receivers guys, because every single time I feel like I get a good read of who's good at something, like I feel like all of them kind of compliment each other. But I feel like I don't really know week to week who's going to be the guy like Jayden Reid got an early touchdown, you would think that he would be able to take over, and then was basically absent the second half. It was a lot more Watson, And then you look on the course of the season, Jayden Reid's been awesome on yards per route run, like he leads this team. Two point eight yards per out run is a really good number. But he's being targeted less than Watson, less than Wix on a per route basis. I just worry week two week about his volatility. I like what I saw from Love, but I'm just worried about what Reed is in this offense, and it will there be weeks where he's the fourth or fifth option, which shouldn't happen at all.
Can I bring up something for discussion? There has there had been a pivot recently, as recently as this year, maybe the year prior as well. A long time ago, we would always talk about the importance of bigger wide receivers like you. Pretty much if you want to be relevant for fantasy, you got to be two hundred pounds, especially when you're looking at dynasty in your look, looking at prospects and longevity.
Of a career and able to change our metrics.
And we had to kind of change our metrics because you started to see smaller and smaller wide receivers kind of having an impact. We saw Jaden Reid having an impact these one hundred and eighty seven pounds. We saw Tank Dell rookie season come out here in dominate, And we have a lot of these smaller under you know, not classic wide receiver ones. Four teams being really really high fantasy football options in today's modern NFL. But I feel like like some of the I feel like we're taking l's on some of these lighter wide receivers this year. And it's all the big boys. It's the Nico Collins and the you know, the all the guys that are over two hundred are the ones I actually want on my fantasy roster. And I just don't know if if I'm overreacting or you know, getting curmudgety, But I do you guys feel that at all? Or is that just stupid as it? You know, these I don't know, man, I'm just starting to worry about for the first time ever, I'm like buying in and totally okay with these undersized wide receivers. And I feel like it's bit me in the butt like a rattlesnake.
I I hear what you're saying. Because the players like Nico that we used to just kind of categorize as he's an outside ex dude, he's never really gonna be used creatively. Is just he's des Brian on the outside and a lot of times it's going to dominate and then it's just going to disappear. Where you see these other players moved all over formation put in motion in the slot, and you're like, this is a fun player that does have these free releases. Like I'm even thinking Cedric Tillman is a big dude that I would have just written off and just said like, Okay, well we don't really need that in today's NFL like with Zone, but teams are actually playing, you know, we talked about it more man this year, and so you're seeing these big boys just kind of like outbody people and not just with jumpballs, but like intermediate things.
Yeah, I mean all the guys that are you know, breaking out or establish you know, Drake London has been great because there's just this big bodied, wide receiver, you know, and you go kind of top to bottom. Everyone is crossing that threshold again. And all these little guys. You know, Chrys o'lave was doing okay, but he got unfortunately, you know, he got injured. I mean, I Tyreek kills an outlier and is irrelevant for this conversation. But it's just like a lot of the smaller guys. I don't know, man, it's hard. Is it just hard for them to be consistent?
I mean it's I think it's situation dependent. Mostly there's some guys that have that are still a little undersized that are performing quite well. I mean, Zay Flowers has had a really good year. Lad looks awesome in La Lyddidy. Josh Downs has had some nice moments this year.
So I don't know.
I think it's probably somewhere in the middle. The truth is always right. It's ever like as good or as bad as it seems to Yes.
In the middle, Yes, that's it's always worth saying. The pendulum wants to swing to the other side, but you got to stop it in the middle.
I mean, I was gonna make a little personal thing here, Jason, like the curve of you. You're losing weight right now, You're in with the guys, and then all of a sudden, the big boys want to come back.
Yeah, I'm gonna start putting on MLB's you know what I mean. Don't go get me some canes, go knuckles deep in that sauce.
Holidays right around the corner, baby.
I will say, Jason's Jason's wearing a hoodie right now. If you're looking on YouTube right now and you know it's it's it's a great site.
Man.
I've only I can count on a number of on my hand, how many times seen you in a jacket.
Yeah, it's not often that in.
The state though, that doesn't get cold, so but that's.
Never I mean I've I've literally gone to an ice bar where I'm shirtless and it doesn't bother me. Ours in you know, the New Year in New York in Times Square where everyone is in snow jackets and I'm holding my jacket because I'm sweaty. I get cold. Now, turns out you lose, you lose a bunch of weight, you can you you get.
Colder somewhere somebody is and they're just picturing Jason Moore shirtless at the ice bar.
Congratulations, I hope you all are.
And they're just they're just cruising along. They're not they're not veering off the road. They're just like, I get this.
They're just happy. They're just happy driver of joy.
And then and then they get home they tell their spouse, and their spouse like, what what are you talking about? You're like, oh, trust me, Jason Moore, shut off, Let's take quick break and then we'll move on.
Uh okay, well, how funny. We have a picture of me shirtless in the ice bar. I did not realize we had this.
Great work.
Jeremy just comes in perfect timing from Alborland there.
Oh, it's great work. So on today's episode, what we're gonna do is what's called a dynasty sink or swim. In Dynasty is the format where you are trying to figure out the value of a player, whether you're in it or not heading into the next season. So heading into twenty twenty five, you are kind of assessing with this players this day sinking to the bottom of the ocean, kind of like you know Jack and Rose situation. You just let them go, let them sink, no matter how much you love them, or are you willing to just swim and say, hey, I think I'm gonna stand up for this player. I see a path for this player turning things around. So we're gonna talk about some players today that have dropped in value a ton since the beginning of the year. Kind of compare the value and talk about it.
Splash, that's good.
It's a great joke.
Drop, I know.
So we're gonna talk about some of these players. And I wanted to start us off first because we mentioned earlier the Bears, and the player I want to bring up is DJ Moore because he is twenty seven point six years old and at the beginning of the season, there is some excitement about the Bears passing attack. Three y receivers there, and I think for a while we were like, Okay, we think DJ's the one O Doonsday's going to be awesome at least a year or so from now, and Keenan's kind of just there to help Caleb.
Now, I'm and at that time, and at that time, you had a four year, one hundred and ten million dollar contract given out to DJ Moore.
So what if I what if I told you that right now he's seen as outside the top thirty in Dynasty wide receiver rankings because before the season he was kind of in that fifteen to twenty ish range. I'm seeing some places that had him at wide receiver eighteen. That's a massive drop in value. So it's one thing to talk about a player's performance, and it hasn't been good. He has one game inside the top thirty this year. But it's another thing to kind of talk about value and how people perceive DJ Moore moving forward, because he's still really relatively young. Like we've said that every year of his career, but you know, this is season seven and he's not even twenty eight years old. So I don't really care about the age part. I don't really care about, you know, what season of his career he's in. Like DJ Moore is still a player at this juncture where you can look at him and kind of just gauge it based on what you think the Chicago offense will be moving forward. His first game without Waldron seven receptions, sixty two yards, it was his best game since Week five. So I'm gonna first ask this question DJ Moore in Dynasty, do you view him as a wide receiver two moving forward? And by ford, I mean like going into twenty twenty five, Like, is he a wide receiver two?
For a team, Yes, for a fantasy team. For a fantasy team, yes, I think he's going to be a wide receiver two or better next season. I think he'll be drafted that way as well. For dynasty purposes. I agree.
I think this this drop in value, I mean it's pretty much strictly related to just what the Bears offense has been, not including this past week, but you know, everything around the Bears has been negative basically since the season started, with just the downward trajectory of the offense. This feels like an overreaction to me for a player, like you said, he's not even twenty years old. You know, the talent is there, the contract is there. We still think Caleb can be a good NFL quarterback in the right system. Now that's the question mark is like what does this offensive coaching staff look like next year? Nobody really knows. But I think you just trust the talent that he has, the upside of the Caleb Williams if it hits, and knowing that next year, Like it's it's very ucky to only be Dj Moore and Robadoonza that are getting targeted. I mean Coole Komet too, but Keenan Allen on his way out obviously, So yeah, I think this is a bit of an overaction. I like buying him right now.
Yeah, So going into the season or going to twenty twenty five, you think he's a player that you can get cheaper than what he should be valued.
No, I don't think so. I think you can do it now right now if you trade for DJ once we hit the off season, the youth, the future, the hope of you know, Caleb progressing, the fact that there will be probably a new coach in town that is offensive minded, there will be a lot of hype, and I think djmore will receive he'll bump right back to where he should be. But right now, I mean for two reasons. One, because you've had ten weeks of Waldron Suckfest and he just hasn't been good. So you've got worries of Caleb, You've got worries of this offense, You've got worries of DJ Moore. That's just the narrative side. But then the other side is another part of the reason why I think he's cheaper now and undervalued now from a long term perspective is because he does not project to help anyone win this year. Like, right now, you can't start Dj Moore in a bipocalypse. Okay, he's gonna find his way in. I'm starting to Marcus Robinson. Of course I would start Dj Moore. He's got explosive upside, but he is not someone that any team looks at right now, Dynasty or redraft and says he's going to be part of my path to winning, you know, the championship this year. So if there's a player that doesn't project to be able to help you this year, his value is always going to be nerved on that. So I agree with you, Bets. If you're taking longer term approach, I would be. I'd be very happy to go trade for him on the current price, meaning on the underprice, on the undervalue, treating him like a wide receiver thirty six, treating him like you know, an acquireable asset that hey, this isn't going to help you this year. Let me give you someone that can help you this year. For I'll take the risk that Caleb isn't it and then Dj Moore age is out or whatever, because I think I think they will fix it, and I expect him to be a wide receiver two or better.
Next year his yards per catch is down at nine point eight, which is by far the lowest of his career. And you mentioned earlier bets a lot of it was getting the ball out quickly. That's kind of been it. I mean that the range of players that you usually DJ Moore is the opposite we're you know, we're talking a couple of years ago it was eighteen a ketch or you know a lot of them were fourteen a ketch. Right now, he's right there with guys like Tyler Boyd, Pop Douglas, Keenan Allen, Like that's kind of been the rookie quarterback, which we brought up as kind of a fear. But the hardest thing with players like DJ Moore is you see a wide receiver six season last season and you go like, that's what I always dreamed of, That's what I always knew he could be. And so my question is, do you think he still has left in his career so he'll be what twenty eight this offseason? Do you think he still has a top twelve season in his career left?
I do It's possible.
I mean, that's such a tough bar to clear, right, I mean, only twelve guys in the NFL. Obviously, you gotta stay healthy for that. I think Moore's you know, he's a guy that I think is probably more than the I don't know, fifteen to twenty range most likely. But if the upside hits with Caleb, I think it's possible. It's just I think if I'm going to say yes or no, I think I lean no. But I definitely see the path where it happens.
Jason, you sound a little bit more bullish, like obviously you're not saying this will happen, but you're saying like, I think that's more in the range of outcomes as likely than not.
Yeah, I believe that when they get the right coach in here. Caleb has Caleb has shown me enough. I mean he's put on some bad tape. He is, he has done things that are are terrible. We've we've all seen the like side by side stack comparisons between Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, and they're like, oh my gosh, they're he's doing he's doing his own Bryce Young. I mean he's throwing for the same you know, completion percentage and interceptions and lack of touchdowns and lack of yards, and it's been bad. But last year when we watched rookie Bryce Young, I never saw I never once saw plays or certainly not a game that I was like that that guy's got. That guy's got, you know, an asset of tool of something to really fall back on, something that when he gets right, he's gonna be special. I've seen that a handful of times with Caleb Williams. So my projection for DJ Moore is surrounded by my projection of Caleb Williams. I'm not out on Cale. I still believe Kayleb Williams is going to be a good fantasy quarterback and it might not be developing into you know the Peyton Manning Andrew Luck tier of you know those number one picks who were highly touted and you know they might start slow, but they develop. But even if he just goes the route of Trevor Lawrence, you know where it's like, Okay, he is a legit NFL quarterback. He's not great, he's not You're not gonna win a super Bowl with him, but he is a franchise quarterback. That's you know about quarterback fifteen in the NFL that can support NFL wide receivers. We've seen Christian Kirk with a wide receiver one season, you know, with Trevor Lawrence. And if Caleb Williams just becomes a franchise quarterback, maybe not a sensational superstar, I think that's enough to put DJ Moore back to a wide receiver one season.
What if Caleb goes the route of like d Gaff for fantasy where he just says like, I'm just gonna chuck it there. Yes, that's that's that's what I want him to be.
Oh, that's who every fantasy manager wants everyone to be. Just chuck it man. Although the issue the issue is a lot of Caleb's chucking it is not remotely catchable. That that is that is probably like Jamis for all of his flaws. He'll chuck it to triple coverage and get picked. But that ball is still going to the wide receiver, you know what I mean. The wide receiver's got a chance to make that play. There's just also three defenders with a chance to make that play. It was like a dumb decision, but a really it's usually a really good ish pass with no thought behind it. And so I do need to see Caleb get the get the accuracy on the on the deep Ball dial then, and.
I don't know about his speeches. I don't know how Caleb doesn't.
You know, no one can, No one can. I mean Jamal Williams. That's it. That's the only person that can get on a show like Jamis. Oh.
Man, he's so good for the NFL.
Man.
I love that he's starting.
Oh It's it's incredible that we're looking at Elijah Moore right now and going sweet, I'll start him. I I'm kind of excited about it. Let me just put two names real quick with DJ Moore in Dynasty. Would you rather have DJ Moore or Josh Downs?
Mhm, DJ Moore?
Man, that one is? That one is really really tough. I you know what I I hope this isn't swinging the pendulum too far, but I am gonna take my weight based argument and say that I don't know, you know how long Josh Downs will hold up in this role. There's there's great black flashes of brilliance, but he's an undersized guy. I'm gonna take. I'm gonna take the hearty DJ Moore.
Yes, I would, I would take DJ Moore as well. And then one more Keon Coleman or DJ.
Moore, DJ Moore more.
Okay, right now, I'm looking at certain sites Keep Trade Cut and they actually have Coleman and downs ahead of DJ Moore. And I think it's one of those things where you think about excitement and youth. And we'll see how Coleman finishes out the season. But I think that's a deal that you could maybe get done in a dynasty circle, especially if you're talking about the team that's rebuilding. So, Jason, who do you have here for us figuring out we're going to sink or swim?
So the first player that came to mind when I was just looking at guys who've really lost value and that you're unsure of is this going to be like a career thing or is this just a bad start? Is Marshawn Lloyd rookie running back if you can even call him a rookie running back for the Green Bay Packers because he has not played running back during his rookie season. I do believe he got fourteen percent of the snaps in Week two, and that is the first time we saw him.
I totally forgot that happened.
By the way, that is the last time we saw him, so they obviously had a plan to work him in. This is a player, just to remind people, who was the number eight pick in the draft, a Day two pick for the running back position. So good enough draft capital for a team that lost Aaron Jones, and you know that also for a team that very much, very much wants to have a running back by committee approach. Now they have not really had a very split approach because without Marshaw Lloyd there, and you know, obviously they they they weren't chilling with the villain and they let aj Dillon go. They have not had other backs to really perform well enough to allow Josh Jacobs to be on the sideline. And they're in a place and a win loss record where it's like, you know, every play, every game is really mattering, So Josh Jacobs has to stay on the field. But Marshawn Lloyd, I think was a good player, fit this system really well, and the Packers very much want and wanted to utilize his speed for this offense. We have seen Lafloor just designed such a brilliant offense around Love and even when Love was gone, just whatever works with his personnel, I think he'll get the most out of Marshaon Lloyd. I hope that this does not become a Kendre Miller situation where the Day two draft pick of a talented player whose film I liked, who the team liked, who the team invested into draft them, just can't get healthy and the team eventually just has to say we're moving on. And so it's really difficult because I don't think there are a lot of good examples of players who get off to such an epically slow start, even due to injury. I mean, I'm not talking about the guys who, like they were drafted, injured and knew, okay, the rookie season, we're just taking a red shirt year. That's not what happened with Marshaon Lloyd. Players that are drafted and just can't stay healthy and are epically worthless in their rookie year. Man, we don't have a lot of good examples of them coming back. You know, I was just top of mind trying to think of players like that, and like Jamison Williams came to mind, and it took him, you know, two years, because he did have the injury from college, but then he had the suspension for gambling and it just seemed like, because I remember talking through him like, well, will he ever be able to bounce back that that? You know, the team has moved on. The team is not going to be just sitting here trying to develop Jamison Williams. They're too good for that. James Williams has to catch up on his own, and he did. I'm not saying he's going to be a superstar, but he is certainly a very relevant, useful piece of very good offense. So Marshawn Lloyd, he's, you know, obviously in a rookie contract, so he's cheap. He will be back next year. He's part of a great offense. And I don't know, man, what do you think his chances are of being a very relevant part of this committee? And maybe the air apparent to Josh Jacobs versus the it's not going to work out. They're going to find someone else this offseason to kind of usurp Marshall Lloyd and Marshall Lloyd will just be their RB three.
Yeah, it's been a train wreck situation. I mean, think about like what the off scene has looked like, right you think back late July he had a hip issue, missed the start of camp in August hamstring injury missus week one. Comes back for week two ankle injury. We haven't seen him since, supposed to be off IR appendicitis.
Yeah, he was. He was part of the game plan for this week. They were saying, like he was reported and I you know, sometimes these things get inflated that he was going to be a big part of the game plan but then literally woke up and his appendix had to be emergency removed like this. The luck on this guy's insane. That's from that stamp on the appendicitis and the time to recover before you come back and play at full strength. I know people have done it before. I don't remember the timelines. What what is that is that like you can play next week? Is that like early a few weeks, a few weeks, that'll be good. It's great.
It does feel a lot like Kendrick Miller, like similar draft capital just couldn't stay healthy. I mean, I think, you know, the coaching staff is a little more forgiving maybe in Green Bay than Dennis Allen, but just overall, like the same kind of situation where it's like the guy just could not get on the field and then Eventually you can't earn the trust of your quarterback, of your coaching staff, all those things. So yeah, I mean I'm hopeful that we could see a couple of games here down the stretch where Marshall Llowy can get in there. The problem is, like you said, you know, once he does come back healthy, it's like, do they trust him at all? Because the playoff picture right now in the NFC North, I mean, the Lions obviously are the Lions. Minnesota's eight and two, green Bay seven to three, like they need to win games to make the postseason. When the chips are down, I just don't think they're gonna to him. So it's tough. And then you enter next year like this ambiguous situation of what even is he? We have no idea, So yeah, I lean more towards the the sink side of the argument. Just with the contract to Josh Jacobs, which you know, I'll admit I was kind of out on Josh Shacobs this year. That looks like a massive, massive miss.
He was.
He's been great this year and very reliable for that team. So he's not going anywhere, you know, Lloyd, He's gonna be on the team. It's just I have no idea what his role is moving for.
So my official stance and is because we haven't seen him. There's been literally obviously tons of injuries, and we know that this can that can make the wheels fall off for a player, for his trust, for the team, whatever, But we also haven't seen him play bad or be you know, not what they hoped and what they expected. So I feel like his value dropping right now to pretty much next to nothing, to a viewed worthless piece. I think he swims. I believe he will not just be injured the rest of his entire life, and he will get in and Lafleur will get the most out of him. And I think he's a talented player. So I'm still in on Marshawn Lloyd, but he is. He's one of those names that comes up where it's like, I mean, it feels like a coin flip, and so some managers might just be completely yes out on him.
Yeah, A couple of thoughts there. Kiren was the name that came to mind of somebody who has injured the rookie year, like literally like is this guy ever been kicks off?
Right?
And then all of a sudden, like He did come back later that year, but like didn't get much work, and then all the off season stuff is what we saw the year after kind of ramp up. So different draft capital, but it was a situation where it's like this dude even like gonna be on a roster, like it doesn't really matter another vote. And I can tell that Jason's gonna be totally behind this. Of why Lloyd matters is because Chris Brooks is so bad. Oh, Emanuel Wilson too.
Emmanuel Wilson is fine. I mean he he's not great, but he is like he's He's had some runs that impressed me. He's just fine.
Chris Brooks, Chris Brooks.
I mean, when I see that human being with the ball in his hands, I'm just like, why is he on the like put me out there? Why is he out on the field doing nothing for worthless plays? I don't know, man, I I don't. I mean, I don't know what goes on in the in the you know, in the practices. Maybe he's a great player, a great glue guy, but no that that is certainly I mean they need him. I genuinely think that this team is a better team and a better offense with Marshall Lloyd active, and that's why I'm kind of in on him.
Yes, Brooks did have a catch. This past week. I was watching that Jordan Love film where he like broke a tackle and they were like ripping his jersey and and I was like, Okay.
That was fine. That was that was the That was the play where the guy went surfing right like the the the defender.
He's just pulling on his undershirt and.
Like, yeah, exactly, it's like he's water surfing. I mean, it's it's unbelievable because there was like a yard where he was just kind of pulled by the shirt. It's pretty fun. Yeah.
So I will say final point on Lloyd is that you know, you hope he does something if you're a Lloyd manager. The rest of the year earned some trust. Jacob is gonna be on this team next year. Nine point four dead cap. They're not cutting him. But I feel like in the off season or moving towards the draft, this would be the perfect player to exchange for a third. Like people, yeah, your third's gonna be more valuable. People are gonna look at the shiny new objects and there's a good running back class. But still the third your third round rookie pick is worth. So all right, bets, you're up.
All right, let's talk about the Niners. It's been a rough season overall. The guy I want to highlight today and get your guys' thoughts on it is Deebo Samuel who is currently twenty eight point eight, so he's gonna be twenty nine this offseason. And you know, for Deebo, like if you would have told me at the start of the season, you know, go back to August. Christian McCaffrey's going to miss nine or ten games, brandonwy He's gonna tear his ACL, Ricky Piersall is going to miss a bunch of time. Like I would say, Oh okay, Deebo is clearly smashing in this situation. It's been very meh overall. His efficiency has dropped off a little bit as far as like his fantasy points per out run, his expected fantasy points are down. Juan Jennings is like commanding targets like a true alpha wide receiver over Deebo, which is just so weird and wild to think about from their situation in the team. But not just that, but like their career arc right Jennings has been the league for a while, He's done nothing until this year, Deebo has kind of been when he's on the field, like he is their their centerpiece in the role of you know, Kyle Shanahan's guy. It's just a weird season. I don't know what to think about Deebo, Like, is he hitting the start of a decline in his age? Is he gonna bounce back next year? Like, I don't know what to think about Deebo this year. And he did have a couple of games, you know, where he had like the pneumonia and was limited snaps and that sort of thing. So there's part of it that you could understand, but still just the situation is set up beautifully for him and he just doesn't seem to be capitalizing on it. So where you guys at with Debo, It's been a tricky season.
It's also hard because all of the yak plays that we've seen over the last i don't know, five six years from the Niners just not happening. And Deebo is supposed to be the dude where that does happen. So that was his superpower. And then other than that, like other than the yak plays and he obviously gets the rush attempts. He's just not a conventional wide receiver, So you kind of ask yourself the question, like, moving forward, what am I counting on? And this year it's been you know, he was hurt for a little bit. He started off the season really well, he had one awesome game, and then it's kind of been meh and then overtaken on just pure targets and targets for outrun. So I feel like Debo is one of those players that I'm not going to trade for him. I'm not going to sell him on the cheap, but I feel like he's just not an asset that's going to be helpful moving forward and moving forward into twenty twenty five.
Yeah, I have very different outlooks on Debo from redraft to dynasty. If I'm in a dynasty league and I've got Deebo, I'm trying to cash in on his name, on his value. If he comes out and has a big week this week, I'll I'll look to capitalize because he's an older wide receiver now who kind of ten percent plays running back. I expect him to be around with the night because of the Brandon Nayuk injury. I expect him to be around with the Niners this next year, but it is not impossible that they cut him this offseason. I think it'll be the following off season to clear cap space or look to trade him. I mean, he's already been floated in those kind of rumors. We just don't know what kind of a I think we've seen the best of him, So it's a downward arrow. Now at an older age, you want to get something for the name of those type of players. So if I'm in a dynasty, I'm looking to I'm looking to move him. In a redraft league, you know, his value is is is low enough where I'm willing to take a shot. You know, I don't think while his arrow is pointing down, I don't think that means the guy sucks. I think that Debo has a handful of really important games rest of season. And you know this is where you trade these older, closer to expiring wide receivers. You don't do it once they have no value. He still has value to provide, which is why you can get something for him. So in a redraft I'm fine trying to trade on the cheap for him and in a Dynasty, I'm trying to trade him while he still has perceived value in years on a contract.
Is he worth a late first?
Like what I trade him for a late Would I trade him away to acquire late first? I think I would. I mean, obviously depends on the situation of my team. If I'm competing for a championship this year, no, if I'm looking like I'm gonna miss the playoffs. Absolutely agreed.
Okay, yep, I'm with you.
He's kind of right there in that range. Like, you know, I'd rather have DJ Moore than Deebo Samuel, but for us of the season, I'd rather I have Debo. It's weird, like I don't have DJ Moore in Dynasty.
But they're just inverse.
Yeah, yeah, totally. Let's take a quick break and we'll talk about a few more. All Right, We're gonna keep talking about some players that are have been sinking this season, and I want to bring up a player that you know, this offseason was mostly seen as the quarterback one or two in Dynasty and in super Flex startups. It was one of those things where it's just hey, you just get to set this player, pick him and kind of move on and not have to think about it. Patrick Mahomes right now is not going to go in the probably top three or four in startups for Superflex. Patrick Mahomes I'm seeing in some places as the quarterback six seven eight in Dynasty, which is wild to say for someone who's only twenty nine years old and going into the season. I don't know about you, guys. I thought he was gonna explode.
I am guilty of really believing this was the bounce back, great fantasy season in coming from Mahomes. I mean, I know, I'm lucky that I only had him in one of my nine leagues. You know, it was like the one I cared about the least. I'm like, oh, I'll just take him a little bit early because I have him nowhere else. I wasn't able to get him anywhere else. And that is just a blessing because we knew right off the bat. It was like two weeks in max of three weeks in where you're like, it's the same old, same old. It's the dink and dunk, little tiny cuts, nothing goes deep nonsense for for fantas either winning football games. But it's yeah, I thought he was going to be so good.
I did too.
I was all the way in and I think looking at the transactions that they made with signing Hollywood, drafting Xavier Worthy, you know, getting Rashi Rice not suspended. You know that's they had anything to do with that. But just the way it played out for Pat mahomes in July August, You're like, Okay, here we go, and then Worthy, can't it going? You know, he actually had a nice game this past weekend, but in general, can't it going? You know, Rashi Rice is out with a major knee injury, and it kind of just he said, Okay, we know how to win this way. We've done it before, let's just do it again. So yeah, I don't know if this is like what the offense wants to be with what they're trying to be, or just they are that way because they have to be with the personnel.
I'm not sure to put some numbers with it. Career clear career lows I said it something.
Khalil Shakir Khalil.
Career lows in yards per attempt. His TDU is at four point four percent, also not in mahomes in, and he's on pace for thirty seven sacks. His previous career high was twenty eight. So a lot of these games we know have been close, we know they haven't been covering the spread. It's one of those things where if you're playing in super Flex usually just kind of say I set it, forget it, and I'm gonna have this player for ten years. That's what we've been saying for the last couple of years. Now we're having the conversation of Okay, what does it look like for fantasy and in a startup I could make the case over a ton of different people that I would take, and then I'm thinking in a first round of a super flex startup, Mahomes has always been that dude in the top three or four, just no questions asked. You take him as a quarterback? Now is he a first He's not even a first round pick. I feel like at this point a super flex startup, or at least he's right there on the edge.
I'm sure value wise, he will be a first round pick in every super flex startup.
Oh ver name value alone, I'm saying I would not take him.
Right, No, it's a worthy conversation, But what that says if we don't think he should be taken there, and we know for a fact he will be taken there. That means his value is perceived higher than the true return is, which means you should be trying to see what you can get for Mahomes in a dynasty league. And right now midway through the season probably isn't the time when he's not performing well, but in the off season, every off season, the narrative, you know, kind of like we were talking about with djmore the off season, it's all good, it's all roses, it's all what's the best version of each player's future. So the guys who have extremely high potential, like when you say what's the best version of Jerry Judy's future, look like, okay, let's explore that. Maybe he can be a wide receiver too. When you say what's the best version of Patrick Mahomes's future, that's the quarterback one. It's the game changing, unbelievable Patrick Mahomes and the fact that he is a guy that you expect to play another decade in the NFL. Oh even if it's not this year, his future will bounce back, and very well might. But honestly, if I can get if I can get kind of that high end shiny golden nugget for him in this offseason, and then and then he does perform, he gets back to that when he has a new wide receiver crew and after he's figured out how to live post Kelsey. In three or four years from now, he's awesome again. But I spent three or four years from now scoring fantasy points from what I got for Mahomes. I'm I'm down for that plan.
Where would you, Kyle?
Can you can you give some names here? I'm interested to see, like where he would land.
Yeah, as far as Kyler or Mahomes.
Hmmm, that is tough because before.
For the season, there's no questions it was Mahomes.
Yeah, I'm on the Kyler side there, but that's not so it's funny because I still want to get the value. Like if this was a startup draft, I would probably draft Kyler ahead of Mahomes. But if I already have Mahomes, I would expect to be able to get more than Kyler, like Kyler Kyl Yeah exactly, and so you you do. You do have to take advantage of those I mean, the reason we're saying to trade Mahomes isn't just to trade him. It's to take advantage of his name and get all the capital you can. It's not just to pivot to a player who might be better. It's it's to get the value.
Okay, let me give you a couple other names. Jordan Love or Patrick Mahomes.
That's that's the perfect name. That right there is a coin flip. I lean Mahomes, but I don't feel good about it.
Right, So that's one of those where if you could trade Mahomes for Love and a high second or a low first. Yeah, Okay. Then then because because you're already asking the question, I'm not sure who you want, well, I know that a first round pick is going to be much more valuable then no first round pick. So it's like, all right, take take the fifty to fifty shot and then just add in a valuable rookie to shotgun a pick towards. Yeah.
And to be clear, this conversation isn't this guy's done. He's never gonna come back to fantasy relevance. It's a value conversation. If someone's gone down this much and yet the perception is he's probably more like quarterback four or five in people's minds for superflex. You know, if he's like eight or nine for me, then yeah, you can recoup some value there, Jason. You have a player on here, Dalton Kincaid, who has disappointed in a lot of different ways, and his value is definitely sunk. I'm seeing tight end seven right now in a lot of startup drafts.
Yeah, and I'll tell you what. Tight end seven that's a valuable like that you know right now that's in startups that in some places that's ahead of Kelsey who's fallen because of his And you can get something for Dalon Kakaid, and I would. I came into the season thinking he's gonna be the clear top target earner. I projected a slower offense for the Bills that wanted to run and probably passed checked it down a lot, which is why I liked Curtis Samuel. I like Dalon Kakaid and the system wise, I think it was still correct. I mean that's they're they're playing that Brady system, but it's been Khalil Shakir and the connection with Kincaid has not been there. I mean, he's number one in deep targets, that is that is awesome, except he's thirty third in Fantasy points per target. They're not connecting thirty second in yards per target. I was looking at his projection this year and when I watch, I'm not sure he's that special. He I think he's just a I mean, I'm not saying he's a bad tight end. I'm not saying he's not gonna have good games, but I don't when you watch Dalton Kincaid and you watch Trey McBride right and it's easy now that they're one scoring a lot of Fantasy points, one's not. But I'm just talking on a play by play basis. Watch how they catch the ball, Watch how they have to be tackled, Watch their physical ability. Dalon Kincaid, we hoped was gonna grow into an elite NFL player, and it's not a guarantee he doesn't. But he's not going to. Like he's not going to. That's not who he is. He's not an elite talent. The earlier we take our ls on previous thoughts usually the better it is. Every now and then you're gonna zig and then you've found out you should have zagged. But I do think getting out of Dalton Kinkaid right now, while he still has value in a lot of youth. I mean, he's only twenty five years old. He's connected to Josh Allen, He's at a position that's a premium. He was a high draft pick this offseason. I just don't believe it. I don't believe in the connection or the talent. I don't believe in Really, the offense for fantasy has not been what we want for a passing game. Yes, Josh Allen gets it done with the legs, with the rushing touchdowns. The running game has been great with James Cook, But Duncan kid is on pace for one hundred targets, which is I mean, that's that's that's good. I would love one hundred targets for my tight end, and he's turning that into six hundred yards. I was I wanted to find another like middling tight end. I know John who just had a big week, But John who's been a middling tight end. He's played half the year without TUA. He's like a checkdown you know guy. And I was just like, well, how's that compared to like John hu Smith? John Whu Smith is on pace for only eighty eight targets and seven hundred and sixty one yards. I mean it's just not getting done with Dalton Kincaid. He has dropped in value, but I don't I think he still has a lot of value, and I'm not convinced it's ever going to actually pay off. The fantasy points to the to the tune where we hope the tune where you'd need it to pay off for him to be worth the investment. He has already cost you to acquire him. So you know, Redraft and Dynasty, I am trying to find a nice exit from the Dalton Kincaid wagon that my tight end is hitched to.
Yeah, it's been a tough year, and the thing that stinks for Dalk Kincaid if you have him moving forward is to go on by this week and out of he's doing. I was gonna say he's dealing with the PCL sprain, which it doesn't seem like it's super severe, like it's not a Puka type injury from the from August. But these can linger, and so now you know you're questioning, Okay, where is he at in week thirteen, Week fourteen, fifteen, and then before you know it, the season's over, and so then you have a disappointing season on the whole, and you're kind of wondering the where's his value moving forward?
That's why I would trade him now. I would trade him now while he's ken. You can trade him now. I mean, especially in a dynasty league where not everything is about what's my matchup this week?
Okay, you can get a first for him.
He's a little injured right now. Yeah, you can absolutely get a first for him. You could trade him plus some other things to maybe upgrade at tight end. I don't think you can get to brock Bauers or trade McBride. Maybe not, but maybe you can. Maybe you can take Dalton Kincaid, you know, and a first or another player and just offer it to see if you can go up, especially if that team has other options at tight end. But if he comes back slow from the PCL, doesn't do anything good at the end of this season, you know that the Bills are going to bring in a wide receiver this offseason, his his stock is going to plummet.
Yes. Yeah, So my thought about players like Dalton Kincaid is like, he's not a traditional tight end the way that we talk about in line stuff. If he's a glorified slot wide receiver. Sometimes Dawson Knox plays a ton. He's gonna be on this team next year because they extended him two years ago. But it's like Kincaid, pits the Gasickis of the world. You look at their stats sometimes and you go like, this could work if they're the only dude. Remember like Gasiki had one year in Miami where he just got peppered. Pitts had one year when he was a rookie and they didn't have Drake London and so he was basically the main dude. And it's kind of like the situation where it's like if unless he sees unreal volume and you said, what's it, one hundred targets.
He's on pace for Yeah, I mean something like that.
But unless he gets to like one twenty five, one thirty, that's really not gonna work because a lot of the stuff that works in the NFL is just play action stuff, and so you need dudes that are doing multiple things. Like I've always been against titands that pass block. We don't want them to pass block, but if you're a good run blocker, you at least are like George Kittle, where you get to do play action and then you get open for all this stuf. Nobody's worried about Dalton and Kaid as this awesome blocker and maybe down the road he does have you know, an Evan Ingram type season in his bag where it's like tons of PPR volume as this slot dude. It's just really hard for the Bills for that to work. It's like he's on the wrong team. Yeah, and their approach to make that work. But I was shocked that they took him in the first round. I think we all said, like, he's a good college player, just wrong fit. So yeah, he's sinking in value. I'm seeing him right next to Kate Otton, which just makes me smile. In some dynasty startup.
Kate Aughton's just a rocket ship right now. That's just what Kate Aughten is. You want to talk about just the right opportunity at the right time. I mean, go get that bag of money, Kate Oughton. This he's going to get it in the season and then and then turn into Dalton Schultz, Austin Hooper, Gary Barnage. Go get your money and then just disappear into irrelevance. You know, it's like very predictable the run out here.
But the best part about Auten is he's always on the field. He's like indestructible, he gets clobbered in games, and.
He just is so necessary right now. I mean he is, don't hear what I'm not saying. He's great right now for the Bucks. And that's the thing about tight ends is like there I think there are a handful of tight ends that if you put them in an opportunity where you said, you have to be the guy, you just have to you. Our team needs you and we don't have other wide receivers right now, and we're gonna have to pass a lot because of defense whatever. I think there's a bunch that could go out there and succeed. But you take that, say, you take tight ends and you swap them from team to team in situation a situation, and I think the situation is almost more important than the player in most of those cases.
Yeah, and with tight ends they have a pretty long runway where we've seen guy like Barnage was the guy you just threw out there. It was like that guy was like, you know, thirty or whatever when he all of a sudden this to go on six some Barnage.
Yeah, I mean Dalton Kincaid could end up on his next contract for his next team. I mean we saw that with Evan Ingram, I mean greg Olsen. Greg Olsen turned into a Hall of Fame. I mean greg Olsen was also a freak athlete that Dalton KK will never get to. But I'm just saying, like we have seen Delaney Walker, guys who are like, after way too long in a career at tight end that are like, oh look a that, now, now you're a man.
Yeah he could be, uh, he can be who Dennis Pitta, you.
Know, ah, the one Hip Quitta.
All right, Betsy, got one more name here.
Yeah, let's talk Jordan Addison. Obviously, he's still young, not twenty three years old yet, coming off a rookie year that was very good. Nine hundred and eleven yards, ten touchdowns on one hundred and eight targets. But it still feels like something's missing and I don't know what it is.
Wait, it might be Wait that's in the spreadsheet.
He's he's another one of them smaller guys.
Yeah, I mean he's playing like a wide receiver too for an NFL team, which I mean with Justin Jefferson, that's what he is. But I think for fantasy, the situation just seems to be capped. I mean, he's at one point five yards were out run. It's very fine, It's a very fine number. Nothing crazy. Uh sixteen percent targets through out run. That's disappointing. And Kyle has done a lot of research on this stuff of like what metrics are we looking for and like where are the thresholds to not guarantee where a player is going to be in their career, but give us a better idea of the most likely outcome here. And you know, through those two years, he's kind of at the mark. That's like, I'm a little worried, Like he's kind of on the or Shot Bateman trajectory, Corey Davis trajectory, as far as his yards are outrun, Andy Isabella, Paris Campbell. You know, there's some names in here that have turned it around, Nico Jamison, Williams, don't get me wrong, Christian Kirk, but he definitely has gone from a player that, like I thought after his rookie year there was a very very high likelihood that this is going to work and he will succeed to the point where now I'm like, I don't know where he is as a player. And this is all by the way, with HJ. Hawkinson off the field for most of the year too, Right, So it's been I think disappointing overall based off of preseason expectations for Jordan Addison.
Yeah.
One of the other comps that came up was Tyler Lockett, who you saw a jump. I mean they have basically the same target sper out run yards prot run because Russ was such an outlier, and they had these crazy seasons on touchdowns, I mean ten touchdowns of rookies, wild like, that's crazy on seventy catches, and so I think regression. We knew that was coming. It's just one of those players that I have no idea not only how to value him, but I don't know when to start him ever. I have him on a roster and I don't know ever when to figure it out.
So wait, so are we learning that these light guys, these one hundred and seventy five pounds receivers, when they get to the NFL, defenses don't know him, don't respect him, and they just get surprised. They get surprised by Tank Dell, they get a surprise by Jaden Reid and Jordan Addison. It's like, whoa, these small guys are good and then after they're like, oh they're good, Well, let's put someone big on them.
Johan Dotson had a good touchdown year as a rookie. Yeah, and then it is interesting to look at some of these players and go, Okay, what we liked the first year was big plays. We saw a lot of those, and then when Jefferson was out, that was a big part of it. Hawkinson was out for part of this year. But there is the scenario of what is JJ McCarthy next year and does that help his value? Like, how do you guys feel about that?
Yeah, the quarterback is a huge issue. I mean, you take Jordan Addison off of the Vikings and you move him in a trade for Darnel Mooney to the Falcons and reunite him with Kirk Cousins. He's absolutely fine for fantasy. Jordan Adison. When I'm watching him play, I think he looks great. You know, I don't think he's perfect, but like he's a good wide I mean, he's a good wide receiver. Did you see the hit he took this last week?
Oh no, he got crushed. Miss you could like feel that through the TV.
It was one of those where for those listening, he skies up to get a ball and gets hit in the back and kind of gets bent where in a direction you don't bend, and it's like, ah, you can just feel how far his backstretch. But then as soon as the slow mo you feel like that's as far as he's going to bend. The defender somehow keeps going it just bends him further. He's a tough player, he's gritty, he's a good route runner, he's got good hands. I like him a lot. I think it's a quarterback problem primarily, and I don't know that JJ McCarthy is the answer. We had expected to have a down year this year while we figured out the answer to that question. Unfortunately we don't get to answer that question. So now we've got a two year down period with Addison where we're figuring out. You know, you somehow you hope that the I mean, I guess it's true. I guess this could work out the fact that McCarthy is, I mean, he really is just getting what Mahomes got And I know he's injured and he's not able to take the practices the way that Mahomes did. But when you have the red shirt year, you're still learning, You're still getting so much more familiar with the system with defenses, you're in these meetings. So you would hope that McCarthy comes out in year two the way he would have come out in year two had he played year one. Obviously, some of the on the field reps you just can't replicate, but there should be the majority of stuff that you need to learn and process and understand about the NFL. He should be getting ninety percent of that.
Is he ever gonna command the type of target I mean, it's like to me, it's just wholly based on McCarthy, So that Addison could have enough targets, consistent targets, because like when I'm seeing three targets, four targets, it's like that that's a really hard player to bank on him buy into.
Well, just think about target's share because justin Jefferson's gonna get his. Just pencil him in for thirty percent, and then Hawkinson's gonna get his. I think Hockinson is number two in the pecking order. So you you will be disappointed a lot in Addison because in order for that to matter, you got to go back to the Kirk Cousins days. You got to go where you're throwing for forty five hundred yards because at that point, if five go only got fifteen percent target share, that's fine. If the pie is really big, I'll take a smaller slice. But I don't think McCarthy projects, certainly not from his college production, doesn't project to be that type of you know, forty five hundred to five thousand passing yard volume type of quarterbacks.
O'Connell's like they've they've kind of evened it out this year where they haven't been as pass happy as they were with like Cousins and Nick Mullins and so and you've seen the success right like they've been good. So maybe it's just kind of that middle ground. But Addison is still super young. You can't you can't like just pin him as like this is what he is. It's just really hard player to figure out. I mean, ten touchdowns, he's it's probably never that he's the.
Type of player that I think is good for a true rebuilding team. I'm not talking about someone that's like, hey, I think I can you know, I need to sell a couple of pieces. I'm not gonna win it this year. I'm gonna go for it next year. But sometimes you're tearing a team down to the nubs and starting over. And Addison I think could be a player that can really help you a couple of years from now. And he's still going to be young enough to matter. He's a good NFL wide receiver, but I think you are a couple of years away. That's the type of target the team that I would be targeting.
Addison makes serving all right, that's gonna do it.
For this edition Famas Footballers Dynasty Podcast, make sure you check us out ballersdiscord dot com if you want to talk all things dynasty with us, and we'll see you next week for a Thanksgiving episode.
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