Biggest dynasty mistakes and more! On today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast, Borg, Betz & Jason talk about which dynasty players have changed the most in value this season. Dynasty outlooks for Rashee Rice, Kyle Pitts, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, and others! Plus, a discussion about dynasty tanking ethics. Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for November 29th, 2023.
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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a baller.
Welcome in.
It's Wednesday, November twenty ninth. Here Fays Footballer's Dynasty Podcast, Episode thirty seven. I'm here with Jason Moore and Matthew Betts.
Thirty seven episodes. Wow, Kyle, that's kind of seems like a lot, doesn't look We actually stuck around for more than more than half a year.
Well, look, when we originally came up with the concept and we were in the planning stages, the Kyle whiteboard stages, as he brought us out, there was a timeline on this whiteboard and we had it all mapped out for an off season Dynasty show. But then the show was just too good and the people demanded it to be year round, so we said, okay, we'll just keep doing it once a week every week forever.
Thirty seven episodes into this podcast, and I think that one of the things that we'll bring up on this show might be my most spirited Dynasty debate I've had in a while. And I think it's good. God, it was good for the show, It's good for the league. Jason's part of this, so yeah, thirty seven episodes in Betts, I started doing some math. You and I I think we recorded three hundred and fifty episodes together. And Jason's you know, he's already in the fifteen thousand hours club, as Mike mentioned, like, he's you know, he's been doing a lot of podcasting.
So it's why my voice gives out so much, because after fifteen thousand hours of talking, you know, I'm surprised I can keep going.
It's just grapl Not all heroes were capes.
Jason, I do wear cape, though I'm wearing one right now.
Jason has given his body to this company for years and years and years and just laid it on the line.
Ten years ago and we started this. I was not nearly this unhealthy, and so now now that I've given my body to Fantasy Football, I'm just a fat turn that's all. That's what I've become.
This is what Fantasy Football gave you. In return.
Yeah, in return, they've given me a lot of championships and a lot of eating my feelings.
Yeah, no, I'm there. I was pretty sad this weekend on a number of fronts. But if you're with us, we're glad it's week thirteen. We're gonna be talking dynasty differences some players at the beginning of the year. This is where we had them ranked. This is where the consensus was. I'm even going through so you know, dynasty values of Hey, this is this position of the last five years, and we're gonna talk about where they're at right now because a lot of these players are very, very different. So we'll compare some different players. We'll talk about some mistakes we've made this year. But if you want to get in all the fun, you go to join theefoot dot com. You can be a part of our discord channels. One of my favorite channels to pop in is to see the Commissioner Chat where commissioners get to talk through a ton of stuff. I got a question today. I thought it was quite pertinent, someone said on Twitter. They said, Hey, could you guys talk about tanking rules for Dynasty on the show?
What? What?
How much time do we have home?
Man?
They said, in most leagues do they allow tanking? Is it in the rules to allow tanking? So Jason, yeah, you can.
You know, all right, Well, we're gonna have a show here today. It seems I love you also, yeah, I love you too Tanker. But in our in our main dynasty league, there was a little bit of drama this last week with Kyle co manager as a team with Al Bortland, with Jeremy and Kylin Jeremy for the first time ever in the history of this league, like we've been this this is not a brand new league. This is a dynasty league has been around a long time. The first week ever, you saw outright unmitigated tanking where Puka was on the bench, A great by the way, a great right, yes, Uh, who else did you say? I mean, yeah, Tank Dell, Puka, I mean and and you started like Hardy who.
Didn't play surprise and active.
Okay, a surprise and active. But also let's say he had played. You started Hardy over Pooka and Tank Dell. Kyle trying to defend that. So look, the only way Kyle can defend it, the only way Kyle and Jeremy can defendit, the way that they have defended it, is saying that tanking isn't wrong, Like that's the defense, and to be fair, that is odd defense. You could have to say, Look, in a dynasty league, I'm doing what's best for my team. I am trying to play for the future, get a better pick, blah blah blah, blah blah. And some leagues have written rules against it, some leagues don't. And in the leagues that don't have written rules, they have unwritten rules they I mean, there is integrity and goodness, and I think that there's always those questionable ones right where it's like, uh, you could make an argument that you know, this guy's coming back off an injury, and even though most people would play him, I think I'm woun to play the slightly less good guy, and so you can make those kind of moderate decisions that maybe your heart doesn't really believe when you're making start sit decisions. But the truth is, in dynasty leagues, you should not have tanking. You you know, every league out there, every major real league, has active rules against tanking. And that doesn't mean that teams still don't tank, still don't look to lose, still don't trade away players, still don't you know, let injured players get a little bit healthier in real life. But there are active rules against it because you for the integrity of the league, for matchups that affect other teams in the league, that affect playoff pictures and things like that. You want to have confidence, and so now going forward, starting next year, we have written rules against it, Thank you, Kyle. But that is my opinion. My opinion in dynasty leagues is you cannot outright tank. You have to start what is moderately your best lineup questionable. Start sit decisions, defensible, start set decisions you can make, but you can't be benching stars for scrubs just to get a better pick.
Bets, I'll let you fall up, and then I'll give kind of mind because I listen. At the end of the day, I agree with Jason. Written rules are key to be able to define what is often undefined or unwritten. So, Bets, I'll let you go. Is this happened in any of your leagues?
I mean, I think you definitely have to have the written rules aspect of it, because if you don't, there's gonna be some squirrely guys in your league like Kyle and Jeremy who pull a fast one on you, and then it just creates this cascade of people getting upset with each other and you shouldn't have done that, But then someone tries to justify it, and so it kind of goes back and forth. You have to have I think, like a written rule, whatever it is for your league, just like this is what it is. You know, this is what you have to follow. But that has happened in my leagues as well. I will say, totally honest. If I'm the team play on the other side of it and I need to get into the playoffs, okay, that helps. But I've been I've been part of it, and where I missed the playoffs because some team won that should not have one in that scenario. And so you know it'll get you, I'll bite you in the butt. But you got to have.
Happy to report that the tank epotamous job did not affect the outcome of the game. They stunk anyways. I mean there's a you know, a little bit of you probably lost about twenty points on the deal for your point tie breakers, but uh yeah, you know it's just bush wait Kyle.
So I know that this has been going on for a while. You've been trying to rebuild, trying to get pick singer players like you're obviously you're probably in a position to be a bottom three or four team as is. Why did you choose this week to outright blatantly tank.
Because there are two teams at the bottom, it's US and another that are fighting for this number one pick. And last year it just happens that these same exact two teams were in this situation, and Jeremy, being the integris man that he is, decided to start a full roster. It cost him Bijon. So Jason can thank getting Bijon because Jeremy So.
Jason's come out with, yeah, I had I had the pick of another team that was battling for that worst spot and I needed I Neededmany's team to win, and they did at the end of last season, so I was able to have the one on one, got Bijon. And now regrets have regrets have come in place. But I will say this for everybody playing in Dynasty leagues, for people listening to this Dynasty podcast, for managers and league mates that have had these issues. We have instituted a new rule for next year that I think will fix it all. And it's not just free, it's not just a written like you tank rule. What it is is basically, the teams that are outside of the playoffs when you come to seed for draft picks next year, we are not doing it based upon record, so the worst record the best record of those teams out of the playoffs. We're doing it on max points four. So Max points four are going to look at if you started your optimal lineup every single week of that year, how good is your team, like your players on your roster, how many point would you have scored. And it's gonna do that for every team in the league. And then the worst team, based on how many points they could have scored that year, gets the number one pick, the second worst gets the number two pick, et cetera, et cetera. But that means that now teams aren't incentivized to score fewer points to lose games. Go ahead and play your best every single week, and if you don't make the playoffs, we're gonna award the draft picks to the correct teams in the correct order. So if you want to tank, like if that's your goal to get that number one pick, now what you're gonna have to do is you're gonna have to if you really want to do it, you're gonna have to trade away players that are scoring points so that you have less Max points. But then there's obviously a cost to that because if you want to rebuild, you kind of need players that are gonna score points as well.
Yes, and this is a one year thing that voted on try it out for this next year. And I think my bigger point for this podcast, and I think Jason would agree with this, is just whatever league you're in, now is the time to have these conversations. A lot of times they get punted to next year, they get punted to August September. Start these conversations now if you want to set a league vote. But we'll be talking all off season about dynasty league management. You know, we'll have some shows where we talk about what do you do as a commissioner beyond just tanking, but just what are what's the proper setup? And so I think that's more of the thing is there are people that want to talk about this and they're in our discord, our commissioner Chat. So you go to join the foot dot com if you want to be part of the largest discord for fantasy football on the planet. But I have one more quick question for us, and it's your biggest dynasty mistake so far this year. So looking at your own teams, boys, what would you say you're looking back at regret that you would say, I can't believe I didn't do this.
So Jason, you could start, yeah, yeah, let me go first, and just keep piling up on Kyle, because a couple of weeks ago, we had a show of like a trade for targets, and I brought up David Montgomery's great trade for time. I even talked about how I was close to making a deal with someone in one of our main leagues for David Montgomery, and but that player decided that they weren't gonna do that deal with me because they won the game and so they were going to look a little bit harder. And so then a week goes on after we record that show and Kyle the Borgognoni the Monster. You're starting to get a bad rep here. Borg goes in trades for David Montgomery in that league from that other manager. So my biggest regret was that I just didn't pay up enough for David Montgomery because we were kind of haggling over some little stuff earlier, and I could have just paid got him, and then Kyle couldn't couldn't have usurped me here, And honestly, you know, I think that's a big difference. We're two competing teams for the title, and this is a valuable fantasy asset that did not add to my team and did add to your team.
Yes, on that shit.
I talked up Jerome Ford, who was my target because I thought he'd be cheaper obviously than David Montgomery, and I went hard after Jerome Ford didn't get it, and then I pivoted to David Montgomery and was able to get the deal done. It was a first and something else for David Montgomery, but it was like, Okay, I hate giving up a future first, but I need this for the stretch run. And yeah, it looks it looks a lot better in my roster than you were. So Betts, what about you.
Yeah, those trades always come back to get you and you're like, I should have just given that extra second or you know, whatever it is to get it done. Those are the worst just in general, not just like in the you know, throughout the course of the season, but in the rookie process was too low on Sam Laporta and really just the rookie hit rate we talked about at a bunch on this show for tight ends is not good. But there was kind of just an immediate opportunity that there was no other tight end on this roster. They spent very high draft capital on him early in the second round. And even with those things in mind of hey, this is probably gonna be pretty good offense, I still was like, you know what, I'll let someone else, you know, fall in the grenade. I'm not gonna take the rookie tight end. And then the leagues that I play and I only have one share of Laporta and he's looked awesome this year for what he's done as a rookie, So very excited about him moving forward. Just don't have enough of him.
Yeah, I think your main issue there is that you forgot he was an Iowa Hawkey and that is tight end you.
I mean that is do we have another one coming out this year?
I man, I should look into that. I don't. I don't follow the future draft class well enough at this time of year. Come January, I'll no. But I mean that's George Kittle, right, That's t J. Hawkinson, that's Dallas Clark. Yeah, I mean these guys are how Iowa is so good at finding recruiting developing tight ends. I mean, if I'm if I'm an NFL GM. I'm just I'm going to that guy who who's responsible for getting those tight ends and saying you want a job, come work for my franchise.
Porta.
I need to look back at our rookie picks and some of our data, but I like mid second round rookie pick. Is that kind of where he was going?
Yeah? I think that was right?
Yeah, okay, And I'm assuming in most drafts he went ahead of Michael Mayor.
I don't think so.
So there's probably some people though that had Mayor ahead, So it's probably a league dependent.
No, I think on average, Michael Mayor went ahead of Laporta.
Yeah, they were like back to back in the real NFL draft. So my mistake this year was I was too low on Brandon Nyuk and I I wasn't set on brock Party being the answer. And because of that, it was quite rough to be able to make it transition from jumping in with George Pickens and saying I'm gonna get a second your leap and saying I don't know if Brandon Nyuk gets the fifth year option at all. Of course they picked it up. They're gonna have him. He looks awesome. This year, and it was one of the worst swaps that I had this year. It was just straight up I Uken Pickens, and I look back now because I made that trade. I mean I could look back at the timeline. I probably made that trade in February, so it was it was a guess on a player who I thought could break out more probably I was into can he Pickett.
The process makes sense. I mean, you had a rookie Pickens who flashed in the offseason if you remember the preseason. I mean this was probably after you made the trade. But the Steelers offense look like, oh man, they're gonna be legit. They're gonna be a real thing. And uh yeah, I don't necessarily blame the process, but obviously it's a mistake. It's a it's a whoopsie doosel.
Yeah, and you know, none of us make those kind of mistakes in dynasty. Like we're professionals. We do this for a living. We don't want to look back. But yeah, I'm telling you that you look at a roster and you're like, oh my gosh, how did I end up with this player? But you also get a lot of players that you kind of luck into. The tank Dell's Puka this year, it's like sweet, this was free.
It's great.
But on this show, we're gonna talk about some differences players that have changed in value. So, you know, George Pickens is one of those players that with Ayuk, was pretty much seen in a similar tier. Like I'm looking at our rankings now is like five or six spots below Ayuk and I guess wrong. But let's talk about some more players.
What's the difference between me and you?
And all right, we're talking differences today. And Dynasty is one of those formats where it is ambiguous across the board when you're looking the offseason, uh, even this part of the year, of what this player is, how much they're valued. We had a conversation after week one on the show and we said, what is Calvin Ridley? And after week one it was bananas. After week five, I don't know if you want this player on your and now I don't know. We're kind of in the middle. He's had two good weeks in a row, so the things change a lot. We're emotional beings. We go back and forth with players, and we're gonna talk about one player that's moved up in our dynasty minds and rankings and value a one player that's moved down. So Jason, I will let you start us off first from a player that we've talked about a couple of times during the season, and he's I mean, he's a wide receiver one right now in fantasy.
Yeah, he is. He's the new hotness. We were talking. Andy and I were looking at our league of record, which is not a dynasty team, but it is a keeper so you only keep your best the Krim de la Krim, you basically keep three players, and he's got a great team. And he was looking at how his keeper lottery is gonna go, and he is putting in to his keeper lottery in a redraft keeper league. Tank Dell. That is how much we believe in the future of Tank Dell, of the talent of Tank Dell. And he is skyrocketed from my pre NFL draft vision of tankked Dell to what he could ever become an NFL. This is a guy who I was very sizest against. I don't have a lot of belief in one hundred and sixty five pound wide receivers. And it is ironic because I was a pretty big supporter of DeVante Smith. Coming out, I knew that the talent and the skill set would supersede all the weight worries, but he was much heavier, and in this year, I bang the drum for Jordan Addison. Now, Jordan Addison's one hundred and seventy five pounds. That's the lightest guy I've ever banged the drum for. But I thought he's talented enough. And in this new modern NFL, we're seeing these quick, shifty guys who can get in and out for work the slot and just run great routes and be protected by a new defensive rules. They've been great. So I bang the drum for Jordan Addison. But one hundred and sixty five pounds was a bridge too far for me, and I just did not believe this. I thought this would be more like Twu Tuo at Well, who was a great college player. But when you are sub one seventy, you just can't exist. You can't work in the NFL. It doesn't you. Your body's not gonna hold up for one and you're not gonna be able to get off the line. You're not you just you. It just doesn't work. Eventually, you're playing with these Monsters of Men, and Tank Dell has proven me wrong. I mean, obviously, anybody who doubted him, you're, you're, you're, you're a dummy, dumb dumb. You know. He was a little bit older than what I usually like as a prospect coming in. He's twenty four years old right now. He did have the draft capital, so that's okay, a Round three, Day two pick. But I just wrote him off. I mean, his production in college was elite, but I wrote him off. And when I watched him as a player, I definitely thought he was an excellent route runner, just he ran him different than everybody, just kind of a real special, herky jerky type of player that got open NonStop. But I it was pretty much one thing. It was just so he was one hundred and sixty five pounds. I'm going to bet against that. It's not gonna work in the NFL. And so that's a lesson I think I need to learn as the years go on. And this was actually this past offseason before the NFL Draft, when we had things I don't remember if it was our top ten tips and tricks or if it was things to remember, but one of those two episodes, Mike brought up that the NFL is changing when it comes to weight of wide receivers. It used to be you basically had to be over two hundred pounds, but it has come down like five pounds every year over the last five years, where it's just like these teams are are open to small, shifty, great route running, good hands guys. A takedown has dominated. He's now attached to CJ. Stroud. And if you look at where he was in rookie drafts, he was the wide receiver ten on average. You know, that was behind a lot of players that you obviously you know who's behind Jayden Reed, behind Josh Downs, behind Jonathan Mingo, behind Marvin Mims, behind Roshie Rice, behind Quinton Johnston. And now it's like that's not even a debate. There's not a debate to be had. You take tanked Dell over all of those players. So that is the player who's risen the most for me in Dynasty.
One of the points that I think is worth echoing here Jason, is when you're evaluating players before we know anything, they haven't taken an NFL snap, is you're making a bet, is a probability bet, and based on what we've seen historically players as small players, this light players with a rookie quarterback, like, that's usually something that that works out over time. Like if Jason, you're making that bet, you know twenty times, you know you're you're feeling really confident most of the time, Like, hey, this is probably not gonna work.
If I made that bet twenty times before this time, I would have gone twenty to zero. Unfortunately, I love those Yeah that you know it, he's an Maybe he's an outlier and I shouldn't change my process. That is worth considering. There are humans that are just different. But I think we I don't think he's a complete outlier because, like I said, with what we saw with Devonte Smith, Jordan Addison, Tank Dell, even, Zayflowers, Josh Downs, these are small guys that the NFL is changing, and I think it is more of a more of a prescription, more of something we need to learn and fix our mistakes on than an outlier.
Do you feel like bets that looking at what he's done with the rookie quarterback, which, by the way, C. J. Stroud is currently supporting two top fifteen options. We've never had that from a rookie quarterback ever, And so that's that's wild. Is yards per out run, is targets per out run. They're an elite category. So beyond just where he stands with rookie, because we've done the rookie draft for Redo, We're like, Okay, he's right there with JSN and Addison in our mind, you know, you could take him there. But for next year, bets, is he creeping into top fifteen dynasty wide receiver territory? Like that's where we had like a lave in redraft circles and then pushed up being further in dynasty. Is he a top fifteen dynasty wide receiver?
Yeah?
I think just hearing Jason talk about him, I even asked myself the question in my head while Jason was talking, I'm like thinking about, you know, as soon as as the Dynasty Pass comes out in the off season, like, is he gonna be ranked as a top twelve dynasty wide receiver? Like That's kind of what I was thinking in my head, And I was trying to go through names of who I would put in there, and like for me, I think somewhere around fifteen ish feels right, like almost certainly top twenty four, right, Like, no question about that. But then it's just how bullish are you? And where do you prefer him to other guys? So yeah, I mean we love betting on rookies that produce, not just produce, but like produce elite levels as far as efficiency in year one. Historically, those are extremely strong bets to do better in year two and become superstars for fans. So one thing that I think we can also take away from this, just like a learning lesson. Sometimes I think Dynasty players are just a little too slow to react to what they see on the field. And it's like, you know, if you saw a few flashes of this early in the year, you'd be like, yeah, but yeah, but you know he's still on one hundred sixty five pounds, Like this can't be real, well, should be a stroud can't be this good, you know, and if you kind of miss that boat, if you don't have him, like you're not trading for him now, right.
I've got him in.
A couple of leagues where people are just sending me offers and like every week I'm like, man, the price keeps going up, Like I'm not trading away tank doll, Right, now like I view him as a very valuable asset. So I think being able to kind of shift your take on a player quickly is hard for a lot of Dynasty players.
Let's take a quick break and we'll be right back.
Betsy.
Hit me with a player that has changed in value this year in Dynasty.
Yeah, I want to just kind of piggyback right off of Jason's here where he was talking about a rookie wide receiver that I can, you know, similar to Tank Dell. Just wasn't that excited about Rushie Rice, you know, And this is kind of the same thing that Jason was talking about with not the size concerns, but just when you have this kind of idea of like the bets you want to make in Dynasty. And I'm not sure if that's right or wrong moving forward, but just kind of where I was at, It's like, man, this guy played at SMU, He's a four year player, Like his production profile was okay but not great, And it's like, you know what Rushie Rice is like fine, Like I don't you know, volume super highly in rookie drafts. I certainly was taking like Marvin Mims over him. There was a couple leagues right to Toronathan Mingo over him, which felt like a mistake. But he has been awesome this year. And I know we've talked a lot about that. Two point zero yards for outrun is kind of like not the end all be all, but when you look at historical data of rookies that hit that and what they do moving forward, the hit rate is insane, and Tank Dell is one of those guys. Rushie Rice is one of those guys. He is eleventh in the NFL a all wide receivers, not rookies in yards for outrun. He is second in the NFL in yards different catch per reception and earning targets at a very high rate. And so I just feel like Rushi Rice, you know, at this point, is a guy that I'm pretty excited about moving forward when you look at the state of the wide receiver room and Travis Kelce is even there next year, and if he is, he's another year older, and you could just really see Rushie Rice emerge for Pat Mahomes. So I'm pretty excited about him next year. Just like tankdl.
Jason, you deserve some props because I'm looking at a rookie ranks and I would have thought he would have been eighth, ninth like he is firmly. He was firmly our wide receiver five in our dynasty ranks, and I think a lot of that was you pushing him up. So, I mean, it wasn't like one of those things where you're like, I know, this guy's going to be a hit, but it is something that you were definitely banging the table for a lot during the offseason.
Yeah. I really liked this film. I think his production profile would have been outstanding if they could have included the amount of pass interference as this guy drew. I mean, he was moving the ball down the field. It was just like players were having to hang all over him. And I think there was a little bit too much negativity over what we've seen from sky Moore and Mikole Hardman saying like, well, look, these rookies come in, they're just they're not gonna get it done. With Patrick Mahomes. Just because they haven't gotten it done doesn't mean that they won't. You've got to still grade everyone individually. This is part of the CJ. Stroud problem, right, you know, you know CJ. Stroud being a quarterback from a school that doesn't ever have quarterback hits. They're always drafted perfect point, you know, And so a lot of people really truly just wrote off c. J. Stroud because he was from Ohio State. He had great wide receivers, and it couldn't have been him. It was the fact that he was throwing to you know, Chris o'lovey and Garret Wilson and these type of Marvin Harrison's and all the guys drafted from Ohio State. They they flame out and it's like, well, okay, but just because it has happened doesn't mean that it's always gonna happen.
The hardest part about the Chiefs is the way that we have to filter their offense has always been Okay, there's Kelsey and then there's the Tyreek years, and there's no one else that you can really you know, there's Sammy Watkins that pops up for a second, and you can't really fit that in. But what if this is just a different offense. What if this is an offense that does have room for a player like that. So moving forward, I'm curious to see where his value ascends in the offseason, because there will be talk like, look at what this guy did you know from and his you know, his role has only grown. We saw this past week where it was like, Okay, you look like the clear wide receiver one of this team with Tony out Harbin on ir. So it'll be interesting in the off season, like he might be one of those names that gets steamed up as a second year ascension player and you know, like would you rather have her she Rice or George Pickens on your Dynasty roster?
I think we all know the answer to that.
I think I did too.
I would take or she Rice.
Oh yeah, Jason are you are you do you got something you need to share?
Well it's a little you know this. This podcast will come out tomorrow, so this won't be as breaking news, but I'm I'm just getting the alert right now that Johnathan Taylor is undergoing thumb surgery could return in two to three weeks. So that is like, whoa, that's that's pretty big news for UH circles around, you know, letting up to the playoffs.
Wow, well, Zach Moss is going to be the most popular player in DFS this week. I can tell you that right now. Forty Okay, I'm gonna throw out a player that is near and dear to the hearts of this podcast, to many of us to shirts we were all the time this set. Michael Pittman Junior has solidified himself as somebody who's going to get paid this offseason. We knew he was because he was entering contract year. Do you think that Michael Pittman among wide receivers that are gonna get you know, the t Higgins of the world, Like, is he going to get the biggest contract out of all of them?
What do you guys think?
Yeah, I mean he will get a big contract, but he's going to stay with the Colts. I don't think he's gonna go look for the absolute biggest payday, Like you know, it would take some team offering him. But you know something insane. I think for him to leave the Colts, he's got a good thing going on there. The team likes him, he likes the team. So I do think he gets a big bag and but I don't think he resets the wide receiver market. You know, he's not going to get a Tyreek Hill type of offer from anyone or from the Colts. But he'll get a big bag of money and stay with the Colts. That's my belief.
I think he'll get the type of contract that Mike Williams Chris Godwin dead. It was like a three four year deal where their average salary was well over twenty million per year. And if you really want to go down a fun rabbit hole, go on spow track, which is a website we use a ton to, you know, to look at salaries. But before the year, you can find what they estimated his salary would be in free agency and then how it's increased.
Ah should have signed him early. Huh what was it?
Du You know, before the season, the average salary is going to be about eighteen million. They projected seventy three million over four years. Now they're looking at an average salary of over twenty almost twenty three and a half, which feels a little high, but still like that's like top ten wide receiver money terms of per year. And you might say, like Michael Pittman, why is he worth that to the Colts and then resigning them He's an important part of this team. Before the season though, this is where he was ranked in Dynasty. He was seen as a top twenty four receiver when you factor in his age and what he had just done ninety nine receptions. Remember that like cool ninety nine receptions for basically the worst PPR season ever for somebody with that many receptions. It was kind of disappointing last year because he had been hyped up this year thirty percent target share, ten targets a game, a new un receiving yards per game, and he's still only twenty six years old. So I think Michael Pittman has done a ton to solidify himself above a lot of names that were ahead of him. Chris Godwin, Hollywood Brown, Christian Watson. These were names that were right around him that I think we'd want Michael Pittman in Dynasty over all of those guys.
Maybe not Watson, but I would.
I would take I would take Pittman over Watson.
Okay, so let me throw out this question to you, guys, is a value question. Where does he rank in Dynasty in your eyes among wide receivers compared to T Higgins. We'll throw out that name.
FIRSTE Higgins is a great counterpoint because these are very similar players to me. They came out in the same year. They will both be free agents this offseason. One Michael Pittman is about to resign with his team. One. T Higgins, I'm sure is going to go get a bag of money from a different team.
And they went back to back in that draft.
And I'm going to take the guy that stays in the situation that I know works. We've seen too many times or a wide receiver changes teams and it doesn't work, especially when they're not a superstar, you know, like a Tyreek Advante Adams. But when they're just a really good player, we see it go poorly Canny Golladay type of free agent move. So I'll take him over to Higgins.
Yeah, I like that calls.
Well.
The other thing too with Pittman is just you know, not just dependability from like a box score standpoint, but T Higgins has missed a decent amount of time over the last couple of years too, and like at some point that has a ton of value in fantasy. And anyone can get hurt any week, obviously, but you know, Pittman has been there. He's been the dude he's been, you know, just piling up perceptions over and over and over again. And what's nice about him is when he entered the league, I remember a lot of people kind of talked about him as like this downfield contested catch receiver is kind of what he did very well coming out of USC. He has transformed into being a pretty good route runner, especially over the middle of the field, getting not just those deeper looks but also those high percentage routes too, So he really kind of has morphed into a very very good all around wide receiver.
I'll throw out another name to give. Would you rather have Michael Pittman or Drake London, who are very similar players from the same exact college, big body guys. Who would you rather have in dynasty?
That That's an easy one for me, and I think that maybe there's value to be found here. I would take Michael Pittman over Drake London. I will take the guy who has been getting it done, who has been relevant for fantasy, who is the clear alpha on the team as far as not just talent, because I think that could also be said about Drake London, but as far as like target share and total passing volume. I so I would I would prefer to take the known commodity in Pittman versus the slightly younger, hopeful upside of Drake London.
What's a lot about that too is you could you could probably flip if you want to do that deal and you had Drake London, you could get Pittman and something I think pretty valuable. Yeah, yeah, you could you to get that deal done.
That's why I'm saying there's there's value to be had here. I mean, if you offered Drake London for Pittman in a two, you'd probably get that deal from most managers.
The only thing I need to throw in about Pittman is we're getting a lot of this production without Anthony Richardson, who we know will be the quarterback next year, so there is some level of risk.
But he's such a good.
Player and we've seen him earn targets from what everybody under the sun Garter Minshew, Anthony Richardson, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, he a Philip Rivers like he's been through at all guys, and Pitty City's still still chugging. So definitely one of my favorite players in the league. Let's go with Jason. Who's gonna tell us a player who is just I don't know where you even rank this player anymore.
Yeah, I mean, this is when you talk about guys that go up that's great. There are guys that go down, and for me, this was a player that I was decently bullish on and it's Miles Sanders. This offseason, there were two running backs who had very similar deals offered to them. There was David Montgomery and Miles Sanders. They were the winners of free agency because they weren't the crazy super expensive free agent superstars like a Saquon who you know ended up getting franchised because nobody's gonna pay super star money too. But they got a big deal for a running back, both of those players, and I liked both players coming into this season because for a running back, half the battle is do they have a job, Like do they have a contract going forward? Like for instance, when when Jonathan Taylor signed his deal to me, his dynasty value skyrocketed, Like you know, he didn't change age, he didn't change teams. It was just I know he's got like three more years. And that's how I felt about Sanders, and that's how I felt about David Montgomery. Obviously it's worked with David Montgomery, but with Miles Sanders, hoofda. I mean, first of all, the season's been marred with the injury he missed all of camp with this groin injury. He reaggravated it this year, spent a lot of time firmly behind Hubbard because of I believe because of the injury. Now the last couple of weeks he's back. Baby, He's getting fifteen carries a week. And you would have no idea if you didn't look and see he's getting fifteen carries a week, because he'd be like, wait, didn't he only have two Fantasy points? Yep? I think he might suck. I think he is hurt. He's obviously on a team that is imploding. They are right now the NFL's disaster with Frank Reich getting fired eleven games into his tenure and Tepper kind of man handling that franchise to its detriment. So going forward, it's like, how could you believe in Miles Sanders? How could you think it's gonna get better for him? I mean, he'll be the running back next year because of the contract. But he just seemed like, I yeah, I mean what do you do with him? You know, if you have him in a dynasty league, you can't trade him for anything, So you just wait and he just takes up a roster spot. You're not gonna start him, so he's become almost irrelevant. But that's a player that to me, I really I look at running backs in three year windows. I don't think you should ever look at a running back is longer than that. And when he signed that deal, his three year window reset as a relevant fantasy option, not a superstar, but relevant. And he is irrelevant. He has no place in active starting lineups. I mean, gross, I that's just complete whiff on my part.
Yeah, you can't.
You can't trade him, like even if someone offered you a third it's like, I'm just gonna hold the running back. Who's gonna hold value? So that doesn't really matters. It stinks because this team came in and their win total was seven and a half. So it's not like Vegas thought this team was just gonna be the worst team in the league. Now, bets and I did hammer their under as say, like our favorite bet of the entire year. It just cashed today by the way people panthers under but sweat free, I know it was pretty nice. A twenty six year old running back at this point in his career, that's just gonna see it. A couple of touches here. I mean, their win total is probably gonna be four and a half in this next year, four and a half, five whatever. It is so bad teams. Every once in a while we look at players like Rashaud White. They get tons of work, their team's not that great, they're good for fantasy. This is the other side of it. You can get tons of work and it's not good. You get tons of work, get injured, and you're not helpful at all. So I'm worried though, because because we looked at the contract he got last year, and I'm bringing that up because we have some names in twenty twenty four at the running back position that are probably going to get some contracts. And all of these names are big names. So let me list him for twenty twenty four. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, Austin Eckler who will talk about in a second, and DeAndre Swift. These are the big names for fantasy. They're going to get a contract. So any of those guys worry you because.
Oh yeah, oh yeah, well I I have one that I'll talk about, So is it the same Jason.
I don't even know who you're going to talk about, but I doubt it. I think love that. Oh it is I'm looking at the dock, Yes it is that. It is that guy that I am supremely worried about. So I'll I'll just let you have the floor in a minute. But everyone, I'm not that worried about Saquon. He's young enough. He's going to get a bag of money from some team. You know. You worry about the age, the efficiency, the falloff. I think Josh Jacobs with this Raiders team, he's become like the heart of this team again. I think they sign him to a two or three year deal, keep him a Raider. So I'm not too worried there. Derrick Henry, I have no idea what to do with at his age, what team's going to sign him for? How much money for how much time? But the big worry for me is Bets's guy.
Yeah, yeah, we'll talk about him in a second, But real quick on Sanders too, What I would do if you have him? You can't do anything right now. You just hold him, But there will come a time at some point. I feel like next spring summer where it's like Miles Sanders running as the Panthers RB one or just some headline, right, because he has the financial commitment from the team, and you file this away. And when you see those headlines and you see just a little bit of like maybe Miles Sanders could rebound this year, you trade him away. That is what I'm doing. He is forty sixth among forty eight running backs who have logged sixty plus rush attempts in NFL at next Gen stats rushing guards overexpected worse than AJ Dillon, worse than or Shod White, worse than everyone. Basically, it's just going from the Eagles offensive line to a rookie quarterback in the Panthers was I mean a huge downgrade obviously, But file it away, Trader next summer.
You just listed the two players last week that we deemed as butt runners, Rashad White and AJ Dillon. You're telling me that he's been worse than them.
This year per this metric.
Yes, nice, All right, let's take a break, we'll be right back. We're back in bets. You're gonna hit us with a really it's sad, like it's a sad story for fantasy.
Yeah, and it really is just one of those situations where you think about what happened the last two or three years when he was just you know, in re draft league's a no brainer round one pick a just top three running back every single every single year. Austin Eckler now in Dynasty is borderline about to be maybe irrelevant. And that seems like soy.
To say, But this man crazy to say that halfway through last year, Dalvin Cook is about to be borderline Dynasty irrelevant, Right, Dalvin Cook's irrelevant? He was great last year, poof vanished. He's done so continue I mean that, That's what I'm saying. Man.
He turns twenty nine years old in May and does not have a contract, and that is arguably the biggest red flag that exists. But beyond that, you just look at when you see running backs, especially guys that are older, start to slowly just show signs of decline as far as the efficiency, and then you combine that with the contract concerns in age, it really gives you just an uneasy feeling. This running back, Austen Eckler's averaging five point one yards per touch one point four one yards for out run. On the surface, those numbers sound okay, but when you look at his career, they're declining every single year, and you combine that with just the eye tests, he just doesn't look right. I know there was a play two weeks ago, maybe three weeks ago against Green Bay where he had that run on the left side, should have ripped it for a fifty yard touchdown or whatever. It was, barely you know, makes anything useful out of it. So just twenty nine years old, injuries this year, no contracts, all the efficiency stuff on top of that. Yeah, if you are a contender, obviously you're just holding him right now and you're hoping it rebounds. But I think you know the running is on the wall that you have a player that will probably not have much of any value in four months.
A lot of times fantasy and real life football just overlap. You're like, Okay, this guy's awesome for fantasy, and clearly he had a couple of those seasons where he was historic in the red zone, just like unbelievable. But everybody is. I feel like he's telling the same story right now with Austin Eckler, and it's.
Sim this like he just doesn't look very good like that.
My eyes are telling me when I'm watching this game and the uh yeah last week against the Packers, the announcers were saying the same thing, like I don't feel like he's juking off the right foot, like he looks not explosive. It just looks like he's like falling over. And then the fumble this past week was egregious. Now, Keenan fumble too, and he gets a pass for that because he's Keenan Ouen. But Eckler when he fumbled, like he stood up. And this is the comment I made Nur suck. I was like, I feel like he stood up looking around for like someone else to say, like who caused that fumble?
Who was that?
And it's like, dude, that was that was you? Man? So I'm eye test wise, he just.
Looked at It happens.
It happens so quickly to running backs, right like last year, Austin Eckler was the man, Dalvin Cook was the man. Like it just happens.
Yeah, there's there's there's a ton of them. And and that's the problem with running backs. They're not you know, when they get to a certain age, they're not going to get another contract. Like Austin Eckler could hit the free agent market and find no takers to make him a highly paid player, and he could walk away. I don't know. It's up to him whether he wants to take a you know, a backup time share job at a veteran average salary. He might decide I've got better things to do in the media world, and you know, in fantasy football space, which he's super involved in. You just don't know my hope because I've got Austin Eckler in our league of record and a couple spots you know, where it matters long term. My hope is that he shows some juice the end of this year and signs another one or two year deal with the Chargers, because I feel like anything other than that is going to be the end of Austin Eckler.
Okay, I've got to bring this up because we're using these as case studies, all right. Older running back hits a certain age. We'd rather be a year too early. That's kind of been one of our big lessons and something you've done Jason before. I know Andy's done this a lot his dynaslegue. You'd rather be a year two early and get a haul then be left holding the back. I've done that with Dalvin Cook. If you're an Eckler manager, So I just need to ask the question, is this offseason the time to just say you got to trade Christian McCaffrey because he's twenty seven and a half years old and we had no worries about Eckler. And we had no worries about McCaffrey because I'm riding him in the leagues and it is the best thing ever. But there will be a day where we say this guy cannot play fantasy football. Would you rather get a haul this offseason because if you have right now go to the championship.
Yeah. I mean it really is a matter of the hall. That is what it comes down to. And I think that he is on top of the world right now. He is so dominant he's gonna win people championships where you can get a large haul. And what is a large hall. It is a young sprouting running back superstar that maybe has it come all the way plus a first and that's really really hard to do. Uh, you can't get it in every league, but this is this is something that you know I've done successfully several times, and he's done successfully several times. I've talked about. You know, it seems insane now to think about when I was able to trade Julio for Ceedee Lamb in a first right before the end of Julio's career. But Julio was it was like it would be like trading tyreek Hill right now. It's like, well, he'll never stop, He's just automatic. So I don't know, I don't know if you can try to trade him from for Briese and a first.
That's what I wrote down.
I mean, that's that's the what I would go try to do. I would go offer to that. If I've got CMC, I would go offer it for Briese in a first absolutely so that you're not holding the bag, you get youth and all that, and and maybe the manager says, no, are you kidding me? I would take brief straight up over Christian McCaffrey anyways, and he say, oh, okay, I'll just keep Christian McCaffery and keep all these points like it's not there's not a huge downside here.
Yeah, BET's do you agree on that because that was the name. I'm looking at our rankings that we had before the season, It's like, who are the young running backs that people would trade that don't have great vibes. It's like, well, Breese Hall has kind of had a lost season. Maybe people just say it's Aaron Rodgers next year he'll be fine. But I think it's worth poking in the off season.
Yeah, you could also argue, I'll bet if you want to get a deal done because bris you know, in the off season, people might be like, wow, Breese's he's going to get Aaron Rodgers. Everything's better for him. That's definitely like ken Walker. You know, if he flames out at the end of this season and then you've got year two, Charbonne and all that, like you know, you you know ken Walker in a first you might be able to get.
Yeah, it's just very few names. When you go through the list of young running backs, it's like, okay, well it's Bijon, Bree Gibbs, and a Chan those are the names.
Yeah, Etn I think would be in that young name running back.
But yeah, all right, I'm gonna throw out one more name here. And I have been pretty silent about this player because I just.
I hate it.
I'm sad as a fan, but it's Kyle Pitts and we just need to just talk about what he is, what he could be moving forward. Because before the season, he was ranked in Dynasty in startups as the tight end two. Everywhere it was mostly Mark Andrews was one. Some places still had Pits one, But it's Mark Andrews and Pitts as the top couple. You could put Hawkinson in there in that mix two. Those were the dudes. Kyle Pitts was a late third, early fourth round pick in Startups and I almost felt obligated to say he's top three as a tight end. That's just kind of like where in Dynasty circles. Now in redraft you're like, maybe this is the year, but you didn't say he was going to be a top three option. But what if I told you, gentlemen, okay, before the season that at this point the Falcons would rank number one in the NFL in Titan target share, number one in completion percentage to the Titans, number three in tight end receiving yards, and number three in tight end fantasy points. What would you have done with that information?
Oh, I would have gone and grabbed John Husmith so hard. Yeah, I mean, obviously you would think that this would be his season and he's still so young. Talented. But you know what's really hurt Kyle Pitts a lot this year. It's not just his failure to score Fantasy points, which for again for the third year of his three year career, but it's the influx of these rookies. Now. It's like the value that he held in Dynasty was he was the only young up and coming he's going to hit prospect, like Trey McBride looked like he was a complete bust already. Now it's like, oh, well, you got Trey McBride and Sam Laporta and Dalton Kacaid, and you've got these rookies that are coming in this year that are competing, and you're like, yeah, they might be better than Pitts straight up. And so the value in Pits. I remember two years ago trying to trade Travis Kelcey and a first rounder for Kyle Pitts. Tried like crazy and I couldn't get the deal done, and instead I just won two championships with Travis Kelcey and had a first round pick where I could draft Zay Flowers or whoever we got there. I don't remember.
That is so wild because I am a Kyle Pitts manager, on Jerry and I's rebuilding team, and people were throwing us anything at him, and I didn't blame them, like a second round pick, a second round pick, and some backup wide receiver. And it was at that point I was like, I get why they're offering this, because this is what this guy is worth right now. But to us, we're kind of pot committed and it's just not worth it to move on. But I mean, where are you seeing his value bets compared to these other guys like he he mentioned Kinkaid Laporta. I'm assuming you'd rather have those guys than Pits.
I would, yeah, And I think what you're seeing, especially with Kinkaid is like the emergence of I mean, Diggs's is another year older obviously during this offseason, like you could see a scenario play out, and Gabe Davis, we kind of know what he is, and I think he's in a contract year, like there is an outside possibility, but still a I don't even say outside an okay possibility that Kincaid emerges as the one in the next year or two. For Josh Allen that is insanely about valuable and we don't know who's playing quarterback. We don't know if it's going to be another rookie, Like there's so many concerns with Kyle pits So yeah, I would definitely would take those guys over him. Where I was at, just personally a couple of weeks ago before Luke Musgrave went on IR, I had a team and this is before the Mark Andrews injury. I had like like I was like Cole Comet, and Andrews and Musgrave just chilling on a taxi squad and I was like, I'm gonna see, like maybe I can just get Kyle Pitts. I can embrace the risk cause I have Mark Andrews. Let's just see what happens. So I like said the offer, and the guy was like, no, I want mus Grave and a first and I was like, ugh, I don't want to do that, and they're like, what about a second Luke Musgrave in a second? I was like I'm still queasy to even do that, which tells you kind of where I'm at with Kyle Pitts. So that could, you know, look silly in hindsight, but he's just hard to have confidence right now.
Yeah, let me give you some numbers of where Pitts is at right now. He's a tight in seventeen. He has two weeks people inside the top fifteen. So far, he's on pace for fifty seven receptions, six hundred and eighty two yards, ninety three targets. He hasn't seen a red zone target since week six, so that's that's really bad. And then here's the behind the scenes numbers that I think tell the story of Kyle Pitts. Because the falcons are the falcons. He's running in the slot a ton, he's not pass blocking, which is what we want, and he's getting downfield targets cool. Those are all the things we want. The one thing that Kyle Pitts is not getting is the layup targets. Forty nine percent of his targets are just nine yards and in where you look at Hockinson or Kelsey or look at Sam Laporta, seventy one percent of his targets are these kind of layup PPR type receptions. And if Kyle Pitts doesn't, they call those big.
One they call those John U receptions.
Apparently he gets all the receptions that are close, slightest scrimmages that matter for fantasy. It's it's it's so frustrating because I've done a lot of tight end studies over the years, and I feel like I've gotten a lot of fruit from finding Kittle and finding Andrews when they were rookies. And what that led me to was, you want players that can make plays down the field. They're better than the Jack Doyle targets that you just fall down and that's all you get. But if you don't get any of those at all, like if you don't get three or four targets that are just the five yards dink and dunk, then you can't really pad those stats when those big plays don't happen. And that's what you're seeing with Kyle Pitts. So that's that's kind of behind the scenes stuff. But any last thoughts on Pitts, guys.
I still the only last thoughts is you know, when you look at Luke Musgrave in a two versus Pitts's, that's an honest debate. I would rather have Pits there. I still think his talent fair and his yeah it's fair. Is his age still factors in, maybe incorrectly, but I mean he's he's younger than Dalton Kinkate Kyle Pitts is which you don't think about because he's in his third year and Dalton Ckate is a rookie. But he is still a little bitty baby boy. He's going to play in this league for at least seven more years, hopefully for more than one team. I can't wait till he becomes a free agent. And obviously that that might not be valuable for you in dynasty if you're waiting for two and a half years before the breakout. But I I could see the path for a massive breakout still ahead. A lah greg Olson, who you knew was a super talented, supreme athlete, great tight end, but it wasn't good for Was it Chicago that drafted him. I think it was Chicago. And then once he goes and signs with Carolina and they're like, yeah, we love your physical ability, your talent, your pass catching, we were we want to use you in that way, and all of a sudden he became a Hall of Famer. I still see that that is a possibility for Kyle Pitts. I don't see that as like a possibility for Luke Musgrave. Yeah. So that's that's where I see the difference.
And that's that's probably a good point too, to say, like, if you can take on like his his you know value in dynasty and his price in a trade depending on your league, is probably worth taking the shot now, right, And sure you might miss on it and Kyle Pits can just be frustrating for five more years, But like you said, if he can't turn into that and the price is Luke Musgrave in a second, it probably actually is where it's worth doing it.
I think they'll have a different quarterback next year. I for just a fans standpoint, Justin Fields would be super fun. Just Chicago might be shipping him out of here. He's in Atlanta, guys, so that'd be fun. But here's the point that I pulled from this, for just a dynasty value lesson. I looked at all the first round titands, and they've been not very good other than TJ. Hockinson for fantasy. But when I looked at their value of what they were in the rookie draft to their second year, to the third year to the fourth year, none of them really paid off. Except for Evan Ingram as a rookie was really really good if you remember, and then Hawkinson has been great for the last couple of years. You can buy a dip on these young tight ends. Once you get about three or four years in, you're seeing that with Pits, and it's worth the game because we know that titands break out way later. So to take Jason's point, like it could be year four, year five, you can wait on that. And if it ends up being a if someone gives you Kyle Pits because they are fresh traded for A two and Luke Musgrave or A two and I don't know some other rookie wide receiver, I think that's worth it if you can wait on it in Dynasty, So keep that in mind. We'll give lots of lessons during the offseason. We'll get to look at the season, some data, everything else that goes with it. But yep, those are our names for Dynasty differences. That's gonna do it for this episode and next week we'll have a special special episode ready for this.
Goodbye.
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