It’s time for some bold predictions on today’s dynasty fantasy football podcast! Borg, Betz, and Jason share their biggest dynasty bold predictions on the season including JSN's breakout, Garrett Wilson's potential record-breaking season, and Rachaad White's downfall. They also share their lessons learned over the course of the off-season. Join Borg, Betz, and a Baller each week to take your Dynasty fantasy football game to the next level and dominate your league -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 28th, 2024.
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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a baller.
Welcome in.
It's Wednesday, August twenty eighth. We're back Faces Footballer's Dynasty Podcast. I'm your host, Kapergnoni and I'm joined by Matthew Betts and Jason Moore.
Back.
Maybe I feel like I haven't talked to well, I talked to Kyle last week, but not really. I mean Kyle was a shell of himself on the show last week.
Yeah, and now I'm a shell of my voice exactly.
And I haven't talked to you in a month.
Juson. It has been a while. You went and had more children, just one, and I hope, well, right, but now you've got more children total, right, I mean that's still true.
Yeah, so it's it's neat.
We had our live show this last week, which is why my voice is gone, and uh, but it's nice to have you back, man.
You you were sorely missed.
I missed you, guys. I did listen into all the shows, so I felt like I was part of it from afar. But you know, changing Diaper's listening to the show inserting a joke here, they're laughing at myself. No one cared. My wife didn't care. But yeah, I miss I missed you guys.
It is funny we're at this point a week really, a week out, and I feel like we are just body, soul in minds kind of stumbling to the very end. I mean, Jason's talking right now. I was sick last week. That's just returned. But we do have a pretty good show for you guys. I think all of the things we've been building on throughout the off season come to a culmination here. So we're going to give a couple of our bold per adictions. Jason, you did this at the live show. We're going to do a Dynasty addition, so we're gonna change it up a little bit. But just for those that have a list of the live show, make sure you do that. Jason, I feel like you were able to pull out all the stops for the people. If they haven't watched it yet on YouTube, they need to.
Yeah. That was It was a lot of fun. Thank you to everybody that came out, and thank you to Dennis Allen, primarily for being the heel of the twenty twenty four NFL season.
Jason, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, and I can't for some reason in Pennsylvania where I am, you can't actually wager on this, But you can wager on the first head coach to be fired in the NFL, just so you're aware, and if you wanted to, you know, maybe throw a couple bucks on that.
You know, my bold prediction that he was going to be the first one fired was mostly out of vitriol and the and their schedule does suck, but I you know, you you also watch how the organization speaks about him and why they didn't fire him, and I go, oh man, they're gonna they're just gonna hold on to him, but we'll see. I mean, he's he's going to do a bad job of that. I am sure. Yeah.
I circled what is a week seven when they played the Broncos, which is just great great poetry, like the NFL, great job at that point where you know that Peyton's gonna stick it to him, like you.
Understand, sure, this is the long con. This is the long play of why Peyton made sure he got the head coaching gig because he's like, cause I'm gonna come back someday. I want to play against them.
Yeah, it's the Saints. I remember last year I had a conversation with both of you guys where I was like, hey, I mean their schedules so good. I'm telling you guys, down the stretch, this team is going to beat their win total. Take it to the bank.
They did not.
They did not follow through with any things that they were gifted. And if you go back through their game logs, it's like so many one score games they just blew. Their turnover margin was terrible. So I'm sure the Saints won't do that to us this year. Derek Carr. No chances that Derek Carr makes Christal Lobby managers pay at all. I mean, uh, Jason, you traded for christ ol Lave.
I did a drafted again today. Now I do think that Chris o'lave'. There's this tier right now in fantasy. If you're doing your drafts right now, I'm sure you are. There is the second tier, not necessarily like specifically Tier two, but of wide receivers where it's like you have to decide between Chris Olave and Drake London and Davante Adams and Marvin Harrison Junior. And there's this whole group of guys that honestly, they're all about the same. I would rather take the last one at value and have a better next pick. But I was the first one to have to pick one of those. I had to have a wide receiver, and I chose Olave over all of them because I do believe that o'lave, despite the coaching staff, his talent is there. His quarterback is actually healthy. We don't know that for sure with Kirk Cousins, and he is the only receiving option there.
I want to make sure at the top that we talk to you guys about the Megala Bowl because my draft is coming up. And if you want to compete in the largest fantas football league in the known universe, you can go to Megala Bowl dot com and participate. Last year we had over twenty five thousand people. Get to be a part of that, and you get the you know, you get to put this on your gravestone. I won the Megala Bowl and then I get to be in the Listener League the next year. I mean, it's a pretty big honor. I'm drafting with my son this weekend. He said, Dad, can I be on? Can I have a team? And so I made sure that we're going to get to draft together for this.
That's cool.
Which Yeah, which kid did you first? Which one?
Uh?
You know, I picked the one that hopefully will tell me the right thing. I know that when it comes to that's what.
Makes him is your favorite.
Yeah, we'll see what it does.
So make sure you join.
He might not be.
Uh.
So you can join before the final draft, which is September fourth. So I mean, we have drafts going all weekend. This is the last weekend before Week one kickoff, so you can do that. There's drafts on Saturday, on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and you can be a part of those. So go to Megalabowl dot com if you want to compete, and you might even get to be in a league with me on with Bets or Jason.
Well, I have not yet picked my draft slot, but I will. I'm always in the Megala Bowl and I expect to win it this year.
Yeah, and so that's for a foot Clan members if you want to be a part of that Megala Bowl dot com. Quick question for you guys, reflecting on the last six seven months long list of episodes we've done for the main show for Dynasty. I was looking back to our show docs, what is one Dynasty lesson that you have learned this offseason? So a tried and true thing that you said. You know what, I'm really glad that I'm able to reflect and understand the so bets you can hit us first.
Yes, I just realized I saw yours in the dock, Kylan. We have the same exact one, which was a mistake. But my biggest takeaway And I kind of like think this every year, but every off season there's stuff that reminds you of like, oh, yeah, this happens where nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems in the moment, especially in the Dynasty trade market. You think about some of the guys that had a tumultuous off season, like for she Rice, there was a period of time where it was like if you had or she Rice, the sky was falling, like this is bad. And then he had the second incident and this is getting worse. And fast forward three months and it's like, dude, ra she Rice might be the best pick, and redraft leagues like this is this is gonna be incredible. At the same time, all off season, Jonathan Brooks, He's going to be cleared for camp. Jonathan Brooks, he's ahead of schedule. This is gonna be great. We just got news yesterday or today rather Jonathan Brooks is starting on the pup list. The same thing with like Javonte with the cut rumors, Like there's so many things that happen in an off season where you just need to be ready to strike when the news is appropriate, meaning like there was a window to go get Rashi Rice. Now, of course there's risk with those sort of things, right, I'm not saying there's not risk. Same thing with Javante. If people are worried of like, oh man, it could be pround that makes this roster and not Chabonte. If you saw that, I'll say, silly rumor that was floated out there. There's a window to capitalize. So I just think every off season, you know, we get these situations, just be ready to pounce. And it's all about risk tolerance on some of these things. Some are less risky than others, but just knowing kind of when those opportunities to rent themselves can really set you up to have an incredible dynasty team.
Yeah, when those things happen, I think is the lesson to be learned is like, for me, my lesson, My big takeaway is this last year. My takeaway centers around what has happened with Troy Franklin. But he is just the symptom of the disease, which is the NFL draft hype. Oh my goodness, the NFL draft hype is so real and we know it. We talk about it even before the NFL Draft and your rookie drafts when that season is going on. In Dynasty, we talk about how when that week is happening, the value of these rookies is so over inflated it's absurd. But he is the best example of this of all time, Troy Franklin. I mean, we don't know how his career is going to go, but we know that historically speaking, he is in an uphill battle. And after he was drafted to the Broncos with his teammate, they traded up early in the fourth round. I was trying to draft him in drafts because I loved his you know, pre NFL draft tape. I was offering Banana's offers in all my leagues for him, and I couldn't get him. I could not pry Troy Franklin away and now you fast forward a little while, I feel like I could get Troy Franklin for anything, and I'm not going to give up anything for Troy Franklin because his odds of hitting are so miniscool. But my point is not so much to not go grab those players. It is when someone is really bananas in that week of that NFL draft or that week of your rookie drafts, when someone is going hard in the paint and they they really believe in a player, capitalize, get that value for them, Get a veteran, get it. Don't don't just trade them for you know, well next year's two or whatever. Go get someone that you know is fantasy relevant because the majority of these middle to second half of your rookie draft picks, they don't pan out. And so if I can, if I can use that hype season to acquire an actual flex option, I will do it.
So that is a perfect example because I look back at some of my drafts in the past, and there were players that I was bananas for, the Terrace Marshalls, the Hakeem Butler's players that dropped in the NFL drafting. Yet my priors were I like this player and the same thing we thought about Franklin, like, Man Player was super fun. I looked at the tape from Morgans, like, this dude is faster than everybody.
His production profile was great.
Yeah, I mean there's so many things Man Zone like, he was great against both and yet this is the first time he was able to detach and go. I like this player. I drafted him in some leagues and then I was actually able to move on at some point when there was still hope and you know, somebody needed a young wide receiver. They were rebuilding, and it's so hard to let the go. Like you know, we saw today Taras Marshall Junior cut from the team, and that was a deep wound. But I learned from that because man, it's so easy just to stay stay in, especially like I mean, he's good as any good news come out from Troy Franklin. One piece of good news this whole summer.
Yes, Oh, the only piece of news that has been good for Troy Franklin is that Tim Patrick appears like he is going to get cut or traded. And that's not even a pro Troy Franklin take. It wasn't. He's not the reason Tim Patrick is you know, maybe being moved on here by the Broncos. This is just a good piece of news that affects him.
Maybe hopefully he was from wide receiver on the DUP chart to wide receiver seven with that news. So that's good.
Moving on up good is good.
I mean, there was a point in rookie drafts. You know, we go through a couple different phases before the Combine, after the Combine, after the NFL Draft. Those are all the releases. Before the combine, he was a first round rookie pick.
Yeah he was. I mean he was a clear cut first round rookie pick. And then his combine hurt him a little bit, and then his draft stock plummeted him. But even still, I mean you talk about the priors and you look at redraft leagues or best ball leagues, like Troy Franklin. If you look at where he's being drafted for production this year, it's like around relevant players, Troy Franklin isn't. He might not even make it to the field this season. But I will say I still think he's I still think he's good. I mean, he's still fast. But you got to you've got to I think the biggest piece of advice here is is don't hold onto your priors too hard.
All right, I'm gonna give one more here, And that's just anticipating swings in value. It's kind of similar to what you were saying, bets. But there are different phases in the offseason when you look at certain players. There's before the NFL Draft where you look at the depth chart and go, well, they haven't addressed this yet. Then there's after the NFL Draft where you get to see, okay, here's the aftermath, here's what they took or didn't take. And then it's the preseason. And so I just noticed that there's certain players that you have these windows to trade them, and sometimes you can guess wrong. You're gonna say, oh, I thought this player would benefit and things do change. It's just how it works. Like Rico Dawdle, before the NFL Draft, you could have said you could have traded away saying Okay, he's the guy they haven't got anyone yet, and trade them away on that. Then after the NFL Draft they didn't take anybody, and his value goes up. And then in preseason you could say, well, maybe they bring in somebody, or maybe Zeke ends up being the guy. And right now, I'd say Rico Daddle's probably the highest value that he's had at any point this offseason, because there is the optimism. Mike tried to hype him up at the Live show. By the way, Jason, did you believe any of that stuff?
No, I that one. I it's really truly a matter of what do the Cowboys believe. I do agree with a lot of what Mike was saying in that you want to target these backfields that don't have a highly drafted player, but they do have a really good offense. I mean, someone's gonna score points, someone's gonna have rushing touchdowns for this team, and so that all applies to Rico Suave. However, I the the logical coaching fallacy, which is, well, doubt Dowbell's the better player, so the coaching staff will put him in a head. That is the fallacy. I think we fall victim to a lot. Whereas Zeke is a storied member of this franchise, Zeke is a veteran, Zeke is the best friend of Dak Prescott, and so I think it will be very hard to say, okay, Zeke, you are now Dowdell's backup. Maybe they'll do it. I don't disagree that they should do it. I just don't think they will do it.
Yeah, one of my favorite parts of the mic argument. I don't want to spoil it for anybody, but his opening line is he's only twenty six years old. It's like, this guy has done literally nothing in the league and he's twenty six years old, which, you know, like it's a different conversation on Rico for redraft, like it makes so much sense where the cost is nothing to take him and maybe he is the guy. But in Dynasty, if we're having a conversation in five or six months the end of the season, is anybody gonna be surprised and we're like, oh, yeah, that guy is zero value again, I certainly wouldn't be so in Dynasty, it's like next year and beyond, I would be shocked if Rico is anything meaningful for fantasy this year. Could he be like RB twenty three and be like usable in redraft? Sure, but like capitalize I think is the take on for me with Rico anyway, But yeah, it was It was just funny that that was the opening line, is like he's only twenty six, which, like He's basically at the age clip in like a year and a half at this point, which is so good. But yeah, he's so polarizing for sure.
Yeah, and there's other players that I've kind of assessed on my teams, like John Dotson. You've heard me talk about him before the NFL Draft. Ah, man, it was such a bad year. He's toast after the NFL Draft. Wait a second, they have Jane Daniels. Things could change, and then of course he gets traded. So it's just like this up and down roller coaster that it depends on when you bought in or when you sold. But at the end of the day, I don't think Dotson's I mean, it's weird to even talk about wide receiver players as insurance policies because they just don't really work. It doesn't work at all. So think about that when you're looking at your players, you have all these different windows. You also have players right now that can gain value over the first six to seven weeks. A lot of running back twos teams will be desperate bets. And I had a trade where he went in wanted some James Connor got him for a couple of twos, and I just kind of sad that's what you had to do. But I've got some other boys that I'm willing to trade. If people are people are looking, They're only going to gain value if they stay.
On the Kyle, you're talking specifically right now, just totally. You're like, Hey, anybody out there listening to I got some boys out there.
You can't talk to me, Kyle, I don't listen.
What if the player I'm talking about is David Montgomery?
All right, tell me a little bit more.
See, I feel I feel like that guy's kind of like your sweet spot. You know, the price isn't crazy. You know that you could trade for him if you want to go for one more title.
Yeah, I mean the Lions offense is very good, and and there's always the built in upside of an injury to the other player that creates a true superstar.
Yeah, all right, let's jump in. We've got a couple of bull predictions. We're gonna hit.
Dynasty Bull predictions.
I went back and looked at our doc from last year, and I will say we had a couple of hits. You know, if you hit two out of six for the Bowl predictions.
It's pretty good.
Like it's not bad when it comes to hit rates, because, uh, these are supposed to be bold, These are supposed to be a little bit of a leap of faith. So last year, just to toot my own horn, I said that DeVante Adams and Cooper Cup will both be outside the top twenty dynasty wide receivers. That was not a fun thing to share, and to say that these two are going to have a down year in value. Mike talked about Stefan Diggs falling down a cliff and players like Jordan Addison or Ze Flowers or Drake London all passing him in value when Diggs was kind of seeing as a bona fide superstar and he was in the first half of the season.
So was Mike right? Yeah, he was kind of right.
Yeah, I think Mike. Mike was definitely right. Just look at startup draft costs. He was objectively right.
There you go, Bets. I will let you start us off first, because I feel like you have some thoughts here about a player that did you wrong and other players that have done you wrong, and you're kind of just piling on the pain that you felt. I mean, that's what hurt people do. They hurt other people so share away, hurt.
So hurt people, bets.
I don't even know where this is coming from, Kyle, because this is not anything personal. But the truth is is that DeAndre Swift is this year's Miles Sanders. That is my bold prediction is that you know, entering the season last year, everyone was like Miles Sanders man. The Panthers gave him a ton of money. He signed that four year deal, which is really like a two year deal, but four years twenty five million. You know he's going to catch fifty plus passes. It's all they talked about all off season is the pass catching ability of this running back. But he left arguably the best offensive line football at least top five with an elite rushing quarterback and Jillen Hurts, that should help you be really efficient. Fast forward one year later, Andre Swift, playing on his third team in three years, goes from the best offensive line in football or top five playing next to Jaillen Hurts. Hey, they gave him the money, three years, twenty four million, but really, again, they can get out next year if they want to. So with Swift, it's like I get it, Like the Bears are exciting. Caleb Williams is exciting. I get all those things, but they've been talking about using him in the passing game as like his best feature. And I don't really believe in Shane Waldron, who is going to get two tight ends on the field is gonna get you know, Roma Dune's say on the field is gonna get Keenan Allen playing full back slash tight end on the field, just kidding. And DJ Moore is a superstar, So like, if their plan is to use him in the passing game, you're not creating a good offense, Like you shouldn't be trying to get Swift the ball and take away touches from your three stars. The other thing is that I'm not even sure he's the best runner on his own team. When you look at some of the advanced metrics among running backs of fifty plus carries last year, you know Swift really wasn't good thirty seventh, Russia's over expectation per attempt forty third and broken tackle rate forty third and elusive rating. Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert sixteenth and twelfth in the same metrics. So I just think when push comes to shove, we get to like week three, Week four, Week five, and Swift keeps missing the spot where he's supposed to run to, and other coaches have been on him about that before. He keeps trying to bounce everything outside. It's like, let's just keep us on schedule here. Let's get the best runner in the game, which is Khalil Herbert in their backfield, and go from there. So Swift, to me, feels like he's propped up in value based off of the contract. But as we see every year, these running backs that get these contracts, it's not always a guarantee that's going to work out the way we think it is. So I think Swift, there's so many red flags in his profile that this might be your last chance to kind of cash in that. I'm really worried about where he is value wised next year.
What do you think you could get Let's say you're not a contender, you have DeAndre Swift on your team. What do you think you can get from Could you get a first?
Probably a late first for a contender, you know where if someone thinks that they can go for and they need a running back to get them over the edge, presumably that team thinks that they're you know, they're pick's going to be the one on nine to one till one twelve, right, so probably late first, I think you could get a running back and eavy team.
What's interesting is that I basically paid no attention to how somebody looks in preseason. It's just one of the parts where I go like, it's such a short stint. I don't know who's on the field. I don't know if it's a starter. So whenever I see somebody like, oh, he look really good, it's like I don't really care. Khalil Herbert did catch my eye in watching some Bears and specifically Caleb Williams and going he's still really good, Like he's really good. Last year he was third among all running backs in yardsburg carry when three wide receivers were on the field. That caught my attention knowing that's what they're going to be doing if they have these three wide receivers. And so I do think Herbert is kind of my part of this Bowl prediction that I go put out a feeler if you want to get a third or something else, like, I don't mind taking a shot here if you think the offense good. No, nothing more than that he's in the final year of his deal. But I mean it's hard when you look at they paid him first in the off season in free agency and go, that was the first running back like that always holds so true to me.
And that was Miles Sanders.
And that was Miles Sanders, and that was what like Chase Edmonds and all these other guys that I thought like, Okay, this is the dude.
So I don't know.
I think Swift is probably gonna end up where a lot of running backs are. He's gonna be fine. He's probably gonna be RB twenty two or something.
He's gonna be fine, mostly irrelevant. I don't mind this take. You know, I have not drafted a lot of Swift. We've taken a look at the metrics of like a rookie quarterback. How do they support their wide receivers or how do they support their running backs? And the truth is a rookie quarterback who starts more than ten games, which Kayleb Williams, obviously, barring injury, will start the whole season. They are able to the floor of their running back one, like their running back one is not gonna be the running back forty five. But they also do limit the ceiling. So I think that's like Swift is being drafted around where he'll finish, and I don't.
Care about that.
Yep, it's a great so from.
A dynasty perspective, you know, anytime you're gonna lose a year on a running back and it's not better next year, that's the time to get out.
Now, that's that's a good way to look at it. Though, when you look at the rankings, you know you're gonna see Deander Swift slots in and dynasty startups a certain spot. It's like everybody slides. They don't just stay in a certain certain spot. And so he could finish as an RB two and then slowly just next year just like, oh, is this a player in a startup I would take earlier?
No way, Yeah, And that's a lot of times. What I'm looking at when I'm drafting any of these players in startups or when I'm trading for them middle of the season is just like will they be drafted higher or lower next season than they were this season? So I'm gonna hop in with my next Bowl prediction. Because you talked about bets. You don't think Shane Waldron is a good offensive coordinator I do not think he is a good offensive coordinator either, and neither does this player that I will tell you about after this break JSN. JSN will be a top fifteen drafted wide receiver next season. Jackson Smith and Jigba has been it's been overblown how bad he was. People feel like he had the worst rookie season on the planet. He's not Quinton Johnston. Quinton Johnson had the worst rookie you know, season on the planet. Where now he's you're not We're not even sure if he's going to be a starter going into year two. Everything out of camp from Seattle, the coaching staff, they talk about how he moves just different than most guys. That's what That's why he was the first wide receiver drafted last year. And the thing is is he was quietly good, but nobody noticed. You know, it wasn't for fantasy football. He did not do great things, but as an NFL player a rookie season, he was not that bad. He led the Seahawks in third down receptions, receiving yards, and first read targets on third down. He ranked tenth in the NFL in first red target share on third down, converting as many first downs on that all important third down, as Jamar Chase did last year. He is a really good player. The problem is they used him really stupidly. You know, he had twenty nine receptions behind the line of scrimmage. What are you doing? What do you That's that's not who JSN is. But Shane Waldron's like, he's really good. I got to figure out how to get him the ball. I know how. Uh, let me just throw it to him behind the line of scrimmage and hopefully he could do something. You know, he only had fourteen routes last year with two wide receivers on the field.
That's painful.
Yeah, and now it's like, Okay, they did give some money to Tyler Lockett, but Tyler Lockett has not had a great offseason. He's been injured some of the offseason, and the buzz around camp has really been about JSN. I believe next year, Yeah, I believe this season JSN will easily be the wide receiver two for this team. He is very, very young. You know, we looked at thirty one rookies who've had ninety plus targets in their rookie season, and what did they do their sophomore year, sixty eight percent increased their target share. The average was one hundred and sixteen targets, and the average yards per out run of all those sophomores is over two. Those are really really good metrics that I you know, it's like JSN should be utilized in a much better way. He is talented. I don't. I didn't watch film and be like, I never thought, yeah, he's just a guy. He's just he's just a dude out there. He doesn't look good at all, and so he's gonna have to prove it this season. But I believe he will prove it. And let's let's just say he goes out and has an average year. If he has an average year, then he will be a relevant fantasy asset for many years to come. He can go out there and fall on his face, you know, and just completely collapse and Johan Dotson. But if he has even a good season, if he if he gets a thousand yards one thousand receiving yards, and then Tyler Lockett is basically expired going into the following season. Jayson going into year three with his draft capital and what the team believed in him when they took him in the first round. I think he will be a very his his arrow is pointing way up to me for next year. It hasn't been this year. This year his I mean, that's the thing. Like the reason his arrow is going to be pointing up next year is because he's being it's so overreacted to. People are acting like he just was a terrible player and has already proven in that one year where he was it.
His arm he broke me.
He like he started so slow in the season, you know, the first month before the week five by he was playing like half the snaps anyways with a broken arm. So it's like, got the guy a little bit of slack, give him a little bit of grace because he didn't suck. Was he was a good player, and he is a good player. And I think he'll be a top fifteen Dynasty asset next year because he's very very young.
I think what a lot of people wanted JSN to be is a first round rookie that immediately showed out as a Jamar, Chase Jefferson, you know all these guys. And I think I've kind of tried to figure out, like where does he fit in? And I think he could end up having a Chris Godwin type role in NFL.
You know, yeah, if.
He wants to play in the slot, you can also play outside. But Chris Godwin had some monster season. He was a wide receiver, the wide receiver two one year, you know where he's been peppered with targets, consistent player. Maybe the touchdowns doesn't always flow, but he has a big guy on the other side, kind of like Mike Evans and DK Metcalfs. So it's like that type of career can work for fantasy. Except our expectation coming in was this dude needs to ball out and if he doesn't ball out, then he stinks. And so as a JASN manager in a couple of leagues, I've gotten so many low ball offers from people just saying, oh, well, don't you just want to move on. It's like, no, I think this is a good player. We took him at the one oh two last year, Like I want to stay with this guy.
Yeah, I think you guys, and you.
Should be receiving low ball offers. I will go out. I hope one of those was from me. I mean, you kick the tires because some people will have drafted him and think he's left for dead and will accept a low ball offer. Yeah.
I think you guys really hit an important point, which is we've gotten so spoiled, right with rookie wide receivers when it's like, oh, you're not a superstar after the first year, you know you can't do it. But it wasn't that long ago that in Dynasty the role of thumb with wide receivers was year three breakout or year two breakout. And we've just gotten so spoiled with these elite wide receivers. I think I've been too hard on Jscent early in the offseason. I was kind of one of those guys after the rookie year where I was like, Eye, you need to apologize. I'm sorry, I'm sorry Jackson. But I've come around to it, and really what has opened my eyes to the situation is the Shane Waldron situation was so bad last year with how they used him. But also, like Tyler Lockett, I think is like one foot over the age cliff, where it's like, man, he really showed some signs of decline last year. Jason Mitchell little bit of the health stuff this offseason, like the runway is clear for Jascent to have maybe not like a true insane breakout year this year, but like a very good season, and then he is that like classic third year, true superstar breakout that we could see coming. So I like this take. I certainly think the air was pointing up. And like we talked about next year, this time we're talking about player that's gonna be drafted way higher in startups than he is right now.
He's twenty two and a half years old. So I'm gonna give you guys a couple of names just to kind of gauge where Jason was talking. Because whatever startup rankings we have no are now things are gonna change, and there's guys going ahead of him that it's hard looking at right now and saying like, oh, they're gonna drop beyond him. But like, it wouldn't shock me if next year we're taking jsin over Ze Flowers in.
A startup, right what about see that?
What about Tank Dell? I think I would want Tank Dell now, but it wouldn't shock me.
You can see the path for Tank Dell being the third on the depth chart for his team, and YadA YadA, it's not gonna happen. Though. Tankdell's too good agreed.
What about DJ Moore. We have him at Wide Receiver twenty one in startups and I feel like he just holds value. He's been doing that for what like seven years, just young, keep holding value. But a year from now, would you rather have DJ Moore or jsin.
That's I mean, that's a five year age gap. So I think part of this is going to come down to Romadonsay. If Roma Dunsay ends up bawling out as a rookie and looks like, oh maybe DJ Moore, maybe DJ Moore going into the following year might might be the two for his team, that'll make a difference.
I think, guys, yeah, Dillian, dj Moore, But I wouldn't fault anyone for going the other direction.
Yeah, there's a lot of fluidity in these guys that are Wide Receiver fifteen through twenty five, which is kind of where we have JS and hanging out right now. So things can definitely change. I will give mine, and it's a little negative. It's always funny when you give negative takes on a podcast. I know Jason on the Live show is like, am I just ranting here?
You know?
It's like I want to give positivity. I want to make sure people understand. So this is a two sided thing. The negative side is going to be that Rashad White is outside the top twenty four Dynasty running backs this time next year, so he's about a you know, run fifteen depending on the side if you want to go and keep trade cut. So this would be a pretty big drop for him. But the story is that Bucky Irving takes away work from Rashad White, and Mike and I have been talking on the side, scheming a little bit about Bucky Irving because I feel like he's not getting any respect. I understand he was a fourth round pick, but the Buccaneers could have chosen any running back they won in the fourth round. In fact, they chose Bucky Irving ahead of some other dudes that I was kind of shocked, like Braylan, Allen, Ray Davis, like the bigger body backs that could have been direct replacements for Rashad White. Instead they take Bucky Irving, who was a pass catching specialist at Oregon. But I think he's just kind of typecast as a small dude, that's all he is. He's like, Oh, he's just naim heinz, Like he's the same size as James Cook, and James Cook is a player that I think all of us are very bullish going into this year, that we would say, is he ever gonna get twenty five touches in a game? No, but we look at James Cook a is an RB one for fantasy when they're pretty much the same exact size. Bucky Everving's actually a little heavier than James Cook. But Rashad White is one of the players that I've been betting on all year saying this efficiency is not going to hold up. It's just not. When a player was three point sixty four yards per carry, when the team was stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on fifty one percent of the rush attempts. I mean, it was a bad running game. And it's also the part of Dave Canalis that I feel like we don't talk about. Yeah, Dave Canallis came to the Buccaneers, said he was going to improve the running game, and they improved from thirty second to thirty second. Like Dave Canallis is a great motivator. I hope that he fixes things with Bryce Young. Their run schemes have been terrible, actually, and so I wonder with a new scheme here, which is what we have to add in for Rashad White, Liam Cohen. It's going to be more eleven personnel, and you have a running back in Bucky Irving who can take away past catching work. If you look at players that performed under expectation and saw a ton of volume and finished his top ten running backs year to year, they're really good bets to fail, and Rashad White might be one of those dudes that ends up with two hundred and seventy five touches and punches me in the.
Face like last year.
But I think like last year, of course, but last year you weren't drafting him, were taking him as a top fifteen running back in Dynasty at all. Nobody was thinking that. So a year from now, that's my question for you guys, is Rashad White a player that you want on your Dynasty roster.
I haven't really ever wanted to shod White in Dynasty, And like you said, he'd dropped kicked us in the face last year because it's like, you can't keep getting away with this. Yet he kept getting away with it just because he stayed alive for the entire season, and it just compiled touches, and I do think there's a scenario that exists where that happens again. But betting on that back to back seasons with two different you know, coordinators. I know it's the same head coach and stuff, but two different ordinators, like eventually NFL coordinators and you know, guys that make the decisions get fed up with that type of stuff where it's just so inefficient over and over and over again that it does feel like the clock is ticking. That to me, it feels like we just saw the best season for fantasy that Rashaw White will ever have, So certainly I think he loses value and for that reason, I definitely don't want him, you know, moving into next year, especially if you're not a contender this year.
Yeah, I mean this, he's he's inefficient, but he catches a lot of passes, and you know that that's the Canalist system that you know ran poorly but threw the ball well. That helps him in fantasy. I you know, this is is he going to get a big contract? Probably not. So the arrow's more than likely down anytime you get to the the you know, year four for a running back, the arrow is going to start pointing down a little bit further every single year. I mean, that's just you know, the age, the age for running backs in the modern NFL.
Do you guys feel like the Buccaneers are a team this year that just across the board. You're like, I just I just know how the NFL works, and I could be wrong, but I just cannot see them repeating.
Yeah, that's how I feel. I talked about them on yesterday's Main show that I think they overachieved last year big time, and personnel wise, I'm not sure they have what it takes to be as good as they were last year.
Agreed they were pretty fortunate right on third downs?
Is that right, Kyle?
That third downs, turnovers, a lot of stuff that like year to year not as sticky.
Yeah, I think. And so if they regress in those categories, then certainly they could regress majorly as a win loss team for sure.
Yeah.
And so this bold prediction is not so much that he is just gonna all of a sudden suck at football. I think it's more of saying, when you look at his value, don't be surprised a year from now, if he's a player, you're going ah, same thing, we saw with Tony Pollard, Like last year, Tony Pollard was a top fifteen running back in startups and I wasn't certainly saying I thought it was gonna work out. And a year later it's one of those players where you're like, man, is Tony Pollard somebody that you won on your dynasty team or you were trying to actively trade for this offseason, it's like no, so yeah, and so really quickly am I like? Because I know I like Bucky Irving. I think more than you guys. In the pre draft process, you thought he was tiny, you didn't like him, Jason, I.
Thought it was fine. I think he reminded me a little bit of not in play style, but like when I remember scouting Devin Singletary and saying, basically, this is a this is a good running back, but he doesn't have the explosive athleticism to be a breakaway star in the NFL. But like in a box, making that first guy miss, he's just really good at that. And I think Bucky Irving is a really good pass catcher and can make that first guy miss. I'm not sure if the athleticism will translate to the NFL to be good enough. So that's just my that was my evaluation. I was lukewarm on him. I don't think he's a bad player. I did not watch him and go there's no way this guy can work or super overrated. I think he was rated right about where he should have been and drafted right about where he should have been. But that's at a place that is a backup, probably not an exciting fantasy asset in my opinion.
I do need to admit that I have a soft spot for organ players. I always have. I have since I was a kid. I always wanted organ players to do well. And if you start to go through historically organ to the NFL, it's like justin Herbert and it hasn't worked out too well. Like it's been pretty bad. So let's take quick break and we'll be right back. All right, we're back. Bets is gonna give us another bold prediction. This one is quite spicy considering you have someone breaking an all time record.
Yeah, I mean, the bold prediction was that this player is gonna threaten for the record. But I think we should just say he's gonna break it. Let's just say he breaks it. We all know Garret Wilson is good, Like, don't you don't need us to tell you that you know it. We all know it. Kyle doesn't believe it. He also thinks he's everyworthys slow, So don't listen to anything Kyle says on this show. But I think Garrett Wilson is a strong contender to at least threaten, if not beat, Michael Thomas's single season receptions record, which is one hundred and forty nine from a couple of years ago. Cooper Cup was there at one five when he had his insane season. I just think this guy's talent is is that good. And when you look at his usage, I mean, fifth among all wide receivers last year and first red target share, fifth in ESPN's open Score, So it's like this guy gets open and earns targets like crazy. Yet he just didn't perform well because of Zach Wilson and a bad offensive line and all those things. Now, I'm still not sure Aaron Rodgers is the same quarterback he used to be. It's been a very long time since we've seen him be really, really good, and he missed the entire year of football. But he's better than Zach Wilson, and if they just pepper him with targets over and over and over again, which they're going to do. I think he can just have a legendary season. So we're talking about target competition of Mike Williams coming off of torny acl who is changing teams for the first time in his career. Just came back to team drills on Tuesday this week, So it's gonna be a little bit for Michael Williams before he's back to one hundred percent. Malachai Corley is reportedly like the wide receiver five slash six on the depth chart currently. Xavier Gibson, the ghost of Alan Lazard, is on this team. You know, Tyler Conklin's going to see eighty seven targets, no more or less, but Garrett Wilson could legitimately see like one hundred and eighty targets this year or more. I think he's gonna be insane this year for fantasy. So my bold prediction Garrett Wilson a single season receptions record.
Okay, I almost made a bold prediction of his collapse this season, but I saw your prediction in here, so I left it alone. I understand everything you're saying. I mean there's a reason he's being drafted at you know that he's a high second round pick because he is good. He does get open, he does earn targets, and now his targets should be good coming from you know, first ballot Hall of Famer and Aaron Rodgers. But also that defense is so good. Sure they're gonna be able to run the ball better this year with their offensive line improvements, and they're not going to just be snap of the ball and throwing it to Garrett Wilson over and over while screaming and backpedaling. And you know, Aaron Rodgers, I've been kind of a little bit more verbal for a year and a half. Now we don't know that he's the same Aaron Rodgers. I just watched This was accidental, not in preparation for this, but I just watched some film of Aaron Rodgers from a couple of years ago in the playoffs, and it was like, you forget, I forget, or I did forget one year prior to his last season, how incredible a pocket maneuver he is. I mean he's just moving around, scrambling. He's not rushing, you know, down the field, but he is extending these plays, and that is where a lot of his value came from. You just watch these plays, You're like wow. And every time I'd see this play, I'd go, Wow, he's not doing that. He's not gonna be doing that this year. There's no way that he can do that play that he just caused and single handily was the reason why the wide receiever had the time and the opportunity. So I do I do just worry about And it's the Jets. You know, there's certain franchise I don't know if it's voodoo dolls or curses, but there's certain franchises that if you want to make bets against them, it's you know, it's like I'll bet against the Browns every year and come out on top of like an eighty percent hit rate, you know. So the silly things like that.
So what if he's really good at earning targets, what if his targets are just never gonna be valuable?
Well, it don't have to be. They just have to he just has to catch him For the receptions record.
Well, I don't know they've been He's been getting a lot of them. The most targets for the first two years in the NFL. I'm just giving a here's what we've had so far. I know that he's going to get a ton of targets this year. I mean, I'm sure we have him down for a twenty eight percent targets or something stupid that's like, this is one of the best in the league, and then I go, where's he gonna cap a touchdowns?
Six? No, I think that's I think that's not fair. Aaron Rodgers is. I mean, if he is good, then I mean his specialty's always been inside that twenty He throws an incredible touchdown rate, So I think the touchdowns are the reason why if you're comparing him to Chris o'lava or something like that, it's like the touchdowns you should be able to argue that the Jets might be better with Breise and Aaron Rodgers and have have enough touchdowns. I did want to check though, I have him down for a twenty nine percent target share, okay, which would be incredible for your bold prediction. However, I do think because of the great Jets defense, I don't see them pushing the pace of play and throwing as much as they did last year. So that is a total of even though twenty nine percent target share, fewer targets in last year one hundred and sixty two for.
Me, okay, so it's gonna catch basically every single one. I'll come out one hundred and fifty catches one hundred and sixty two targets and break the record. So it's gonna be all fine.
Easy peasy, all right. I have a much more difficult bold prediction. I think, maybe even a spicier bold prediction because right now we talk about how things change in the flow and the season. This guy's getting hyped and is higher than he should be, and this guy's getting bad public or a bad you know thing comes out and everyone's off of a player. And so Jonathan Brooks will start the season on the IR and next season he will be drafted in Dynasty startups ahead of Travis Etn and Kyron Williams. Next year he will be which which pretty much puts puts him at like a top ten startup running back. And I believe that that will happen almost not entirely, but almost regardless of how he does this season as a rookie. I mean, he's coming off of the ACL that he had in college, so he was drafted knowing he was injured, and I will say that you know that when he was drafted, it was report, Oh, they think he'll be ready for training camp or he'll be ready for you know, the start of the year, and he's not. That's obviously not good news, but it also genuinely could be really good news. And what I mean by that from a dynasty perspective is you see players that rush back quickly. You know, Javonte Williams comes to mind last year. He was young and he was able to He had a bad knee injury, and he shocked the world. He was back before anyone thought he could be. And you know what I feel like, looking back, I'm like, man, maybe you should have given that guy more time to recover and fully heal and come back at full strength, because it seems like he never got back to the player he was. Same with Chris Godwin, who came back so early from you know, the timeline that you thought he was going to happen, and it just always feels like he lost a step after that injury. So I like, when a team is in this position, this is not a team that appears to be a playoff contender. In the Carolina Panthers right now. So why rush him back, Let him start on the pup, give him, give his body an entire time time to heal. I think at the end of this season, if he has four good weeks.
I mean that's it. I expect him to have more than that. He'll be playing in Week four. But if at the end of the season, the last month of the year, he gets hot and he is that Canalis receiving back and all of a sudden, he's he's getting four or five catches a game at the end of the season, and you see the juice. You know, he was the first running back drafted this year in the NFL draft, And if he shows those flashes as a twenty one year old next year, he's going to be an incredibly highly drafted asset. You know, you've got Traves etn who'll be going into you know, he'll be playing at twenty six years old. Kyron will be on the last year of a deal at twenty five, with Blake Korum behind him. You know, Chuba Hubbard is maybe a great pick right this second in redraft, but dynasty wise, Jonathan Brooks is set up to take over this team. Next year as a young man, highly drafted, highly talented, and so I do think that he'll midway through this year or one, you know, at month two into this season, when Jonathan Brooks has only been on the field for a couple of weeks and is probably still a significant backup to Chewba Hubbard, I will be trying to trade for him in every dynasty league I can, because we overreact to what's happening right this minute.
And if what's happening right that minute is that he looks like he's just he's a backup and he's not the guy and we've forgotten, then I'll scoop him up and wait until the next year. You go, oh, he's a twenty two year old who's now taking over as the starter for this team. Wasn't it?
I could be remembering this wrong, but wasn't cam Akers Like he had a hot streak the final month or so of the season and he was so young, and the next year it was like, this is the dude, and he was like a like first round pick in redraft leaks.
Yeah, yeah, that that happened and then he got injured.
Yeah, and you also and I don't I don't want to compare the the the player Jonathan Brooks directly to Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley was a better prospect coming out of college, but you also saw in the rookie I'll compare the injury situation where Todd Gurley was coming off the ACL and didn't start the season. I think he missed his first three games and was a little bit slow of the start, and then Todd Gurley, I think he finished just like the running back seven at the end of the year because he's really really good back and and obviously that was a better situation, a better prospect than Jonathan Brooks in the in the Carolina Panthers. But like, this isn't an unknown injury. This isn't like, you know, he was the first running back drafted with this ACL, same as Todd Gurley. So in situationally, I think that it pays to remember. And then I think that following year, I don't know if Todd Gurley was the number one Dynasties start up running back, but he couldn't have been far behind that.
Yeah, I think you laid it out perfectly. It's like, and we've had this conversation a little bit about Brooks just in thinking about forecasting him as a year or two player, it's like and almost it doesn't even matter what he does this year, Like, right, you know the list of guys we have, like in the rankings right now, it's like, you know, uh, Kyron Saquon Travestien, these guys, like I think most of them are going to fall at least a little bit. There's not that many running backs in Dynasty that like, you know, no matter what, this guy is gaining value next year. Jonathan Brooks is that guy guaranteed, So yeah.
That Miles Sanders will be gone. Yeah, Juba Hubbard is an unrestricted free agent, so it's like this is just his team next for sure.
And I think they're, like you said, playing it really smartly where it's like we're not winning the super Bowl this year, Like we don't need to give Jonathan Brooks twenty touches in Week four, doesn't matter. Let's get him healthy, let's let him acclimate to the NFL, let's get it, get his feet, and then in November December really cut him loose is kind of what I would expect to see this year. But even if that doesn't happen, let's say is nia, so he has a hamstring injury when he ramps up or whatever. It's like, it doesn't it doesn't matter. Like Jonathan Brooks is the dude for this team next year guaranteed.
Yeah, if you're in a startup right now, I'm assuming he's a player that's going to slide just from recent news, and people are like, I just why would I take this player? I know that he's gonna start this way. But yeah, I'm looking at our list, looking at our top twelve running backs. It's like we expect some veterans to fall. There's some guys that are thirty year running backs Ken Walker, Patchecko, and Cook who look awesome for this year. But if I'm just gonna guess based on odds, one of those dudes is probably gonna fail this year or at least fall down, and Brooks will probably end up being in that top ten. So I think it just makes sense. Also, I was poopoo in earlier on Rashad White and Dave Canalis, but I mean, come on, Brooks is gonna get a ton of targets too, like he was in.
Yeah the Great target Us there.
I mean, I mean we talk part of the reason why the Buccaneers went from the thirty second ranked running attack to the thirty second ranked running attack is that offensive line was. It was incorrigible. It was a bad News Bears ragtag group. So they have at least while I don't think Carolina has a great offensive line, they have some really talented players, and of health clicks, you could see it turn around quite a bit.
I've got one more bold prediction for us, and this one I feel like might be out a left field for some people, but it's Isaiah likely tight end for the Baltimore Ravens becomes a top twelve dynasty tight end next year in startups. Now you can look at that and go, Okay, well, I guess you're projecting Mark Andrews to be injured. I'm going to talk about this as if Mark Andrews doesn't get injured, because I think what this team is going to morph into in twenty twenty four is more to tight end looks. They were awesome last year. If you didn't know like Lamar's MVP season, you think of you know what he did. He only threw twenty four touchdowns, but a ton of them were to the slot and a ton of them. He was actually number one in the league in quarterback rating with two or fewer wide receivers on the field. And Isaiah Likely's been one of those guys that I feel like has been the most consistent pass catcher that's been talked up in preseason and training camp from the Ravens this year, Like they've been talking over and over again, we got to get this guy on the field. We know the contingency plan if Andrews is out right, like we understand if Andrews is out, Isaiah Likely is a top six seven weekly.
I think down the stretch last year when Andrews missed, he was the tight end three. So yeah, he's definitely in the range of outcomes. Yeah.
Over the last two seasons, nine games without Mark Andrews, he's averaged fifty yards and five targets, which is just incredible, especially in dynasty, to find as you're tight end two or three just sitting on your bench.
I mean, last last offseason, one of the my favorite transactions I've made in a walk because I've the Mark Andrews manager in our league is send a second I sent a second rounder for Likely just to lock that spot up. If you if you are the Mark Andrews manager, Go get go get Isaiah Likely right now.
Yeah, I I think that he's one of those players They're just not gonna be able to keep off the field because you can think about eleven personelf with that offense and go, okay, now who's their wide receiver two? And then you start to go further like who's their wide receiver three? And it's a bunch of dudes that I think at the end of the day, we're saying we're gonna be running wind sprints like.
We say, saw Bateman's year, Man, this is this is the time Baitman finally gonna happen.
Tes Walker the boys, the boys that basically their job is to line up on the outside and just get out of the way. I mean, agilar is gonna have what like four or five touchdowns just because he lucks into them. But last year, okay, they'd had two or fewer wide receivers on the field on just twenty eight percent of their dropbacks, but it accounted for thirty nine percent of their passing yardage. In other words, it was the biggest discrepancy in all of football. Where their dropbacks are small, but their yardage was huge, and Lamar was great. They also have a ton of shot plays when they have two tight ends on the field and likely can get down the field, so I expect them to have more twelve personnel. I also recognize this is me saying this is what I would rationally do with this roster, because I just think they don't have the firepower at wide receiver outside of Zay Jones or Jay Flowers to really be a great offense like they're there. They're short on a couple of players. I think Isaiah likely can be that guy, So I think there's upside if Andrews goes down. But even if Andrews doesn't go down, I could see him finishing this year as a top ten to twelve guy. And if Andrews struggles with injuries, people are going to want to buy in and say this guy can take over for this team. And he's entering year three this year. So I'm a big fan. Maybe I'm a bit too Bullish's top twelve too much for a guy who is the tight end two on his own team.
I don't think soose twelve not hard?
I mean, is it is tough when you look at startup though?
Yeah? Yeah, yeah, Okay, well, you're saying number not a number twelve season, You're saying the number twelve drafted. That's that is very very difficult for where he is. Barring a real catastrophic injury to Mark Hedriws, I think what would have to happen for him to be drafted as a top twelve guy the following season. The only path for that is that Andrews is healthy. Is that Andrews and you know, this becomes a Gronk Hernandez type of system where both tight ends are valuable game in and game out, and you've seen enough flashes and there is enough need for pass catchers that Isaiah likely. Isaiah likely has been a thing for this team for a while. They they haven't known exactly how to get him out there because they have Mark Andrews, But with an entire offseason and what they saw down the stretch last year, would not be surprised if they are completely prepared to deploy him as a primary receiving target this year.
The other thing, too, with likely is like, even if it doesn't pan out perfectly this year, Let's say Mark Andrews stays healthy all year and luckily has some good games, but he doesn't really have this true breakout profile. It's like you've already seen enough in his career and you're gonna see enough this year that yes, he has one more year after the season on his contract in Baltimore. But this guy screams like classic true second contract breakout, top five dynasty tight end eventually. So if you can get him now for like a second and just sit on it and know that if Andrews' is out, you got a top six guy. But in two years, like you're probably gonna have a top five guy no matter what, assuming he lands a deal as the starter somewhere or they move on from Mark Andrews or whatever. He's just talented and I think we've seen it. I mean, he's proven that. So I like this take in getting him now before it's too late, I think is a really really savvy move.
Yeah, he's only twenty four years old, and I think that that second contract, there's gonna be a team out there. Let's say it's not the Ravens. There's gonna be a team to saying like that guy killed us. I want him as a weapon on our team. And you know, I'm looking at some of the guys like David and Joku tight in ten, feel stable, Evan Ingram eleven, feel stable, Jake Ferguson who you know stable. But then it's like Cole Commet Friar m Youth. You know, there's a bunch of guys in this range that I feel like he can leap and it doesn't have to be An Andrew's injury. That's gonna do it for this podcast. Next week, guys, we are turning the corner. We're gonna be right there in week one and every single week all throughout the year. We'll get to be with you on the Dynasty Podcast. Make sure you go to megalobowl dot com get to compete with us. We'll talk to you again next week.
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