PROVIDENCE – The numbers indicate that the latest COVID surge has peaked, according to pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha, and while the next couple of weeks “are the critical time,” the nation as a whole can expect a better February than this January, when the Delta and omicron variants have combined to deal a coast-to-coast punishing blow. 

Looking further ahead, Jha foresees the likely emergence of more variants but maintains that the country has the tools needed to protect health. And Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, said most experts believe COVID will become “a seasonal virus” enabling people to move mindsets away from the crisis mode of the last nearly two years and into a less stressful mentaility. 

“So here we are on January 20th recording this and the good news is that the national surge has peaked,” Jha said Thursday during recording of the latest “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast. “I think the peak number was probably sometime in the last couple of days and we are going to see what I hope is a rapid decline down.” 

Geographical differences remain, however, Jha said. 

“Let me put some caveats on it,” he said. “Some places like Rhode Island probably peaked about a week ago. But lots of other places in America have not peaked yet… But nationally, I think we have peaked and we are starting our descent. To be clear, there are a lot of infections ahead. If you think about a peak, you're going to get as many people infected on the downturn as you did on the way up.   

“So if you've not gotten infected yet, consider yourself lucky and be really careful for the next couple of weeks because I think the next couple of weeks are the critical time. My guess is after that it's going to really get down to pretty low numbers… the good news is we can see the end of this surge in front of us.” 

Jha said now is the time to prepare for possible new variants. 

“Once we get out of this surge and life begins to return more to a normal phase with low infection numbers and high vaccination rates, especially here in New England, we’ve got to start preparing like crazy for the next surge,” Jha said. “I don't know if it's going to come. I don't know when it's going to come. I don't know what the variant will be. I don't know where it'll begin, just like none of us predicted omicron specifically.” 

But, the physician said, “we should assume that we're going to have more variants… so when it hits we're going to be ready to go. There's a whole series of things that need to be done: Plenty of testing, plenty of masks, making sure that we continue plugging away on vaccinations. All these things will help us be ready.” 

Jha does not expect COVID to disappear, but with the passage of time, its presence will be experienced differently, he asserted. 

“Most of us believe this will eventually become much more of a seasonal virus,” Jha said. “I don't know that we're ready to quite declare victory and call it a seasonal virus yet, and so for the next year or two I suspect we're going to have to continue managing this in a very aggressive way and knowing that we can get outbreaks at any time. 

“That said, that shouldn't scare people. We have to do a mental shift away from thinking about this as an acute pandemic -- where ‘my God, it dominates our lives, my God we've got to think about COVID and talk about COVID all the time' -- toward a new mental model where, ‘yeah, it's around; yeah, it's going to be a problem; yeah, we need to deal with it, but we have all the tools and it's not going to disrupt our lives the same way.’ ” 

 

 

This is the 41st episode of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, begun in October 2020 and available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by Providence Journal health reporter G. Wayne Miller, who has covered the pandemic since January 2020.

PROVIDENCE &ndash; The numbers indicate that the latest COVID surge has peaked, according to pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha, and while the next couple of weeks &ldquo;are the critical time,&rdquo; the nation as a whole can expect a better February than this January, when the Delta and omicron variants have combined to deal a coast-to-coast punishing blow.&nbsp;
Looking further ahead, Jha foresees the likely emergence of more variants but maintains that the country has the tools needed to protect health. And Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health, said most experts believe COVID will become &ldquo;a seasonal virus&rdquo; enabling people to move mindsets away from the crisis mode of the last nearly two years and into a less stressful mentaility.&nbsp;
&ldquo;So here we are on January 20th recording this and the good news is that the national surge has peaked,&rdquo; Jha said Thursday during recording of the latest &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast. &ldquo;I think the peak number was probably sometime in the last couple of days and we are going to see what I hope is a rapid decline down.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Geographical differences remain, however, Jha said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Let me put some caveats on it,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;Some places like Rhode Island probably peaked about a week ago. But lots of other places in America have not peaked yet&hellip; But nationally, I think we have peaked and we are starting our descent. To be clear, there are a lot of infections ahead. If you think about a peak, you're going to get as many people infected on the downturn as you did on the way up.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&ldquo;So if you've not gotten infected yet, consider yourself lucky and be really careful for the next couple of weeks because I think the next couple of weeks are the critical time. My guess is after that it's going to really get down to pretty low numbers&hellip; the good news is we can see the end of this surge in front of us.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha said now is the time to prepare for possible new variants.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Once we get out of this surge and life begins to return more to a normal phase with low infection numbers and high vaccination rates, especially here in New England, we&rsquo;ve got to start preparing like crazy for the next surge,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;I don't know if it's going to come. I don't know when it's going to come. I don't know what the variant will be. I don't know where it'll begin, just like none of us predicted omicron specifically.&rdquo;&nbsp;
But, the physician said, &ldquo;we should assume that we're going to have more variants&hellip; so when it hits we're going to be ready to go. There's a whole series of things that need to be done: Plenty of testing, plenty of masks, making sure that we continue plugging away on vaccinations. All these things will help us be ready.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha does not expect COVID to disappear, but with the passage of time, its presence will be experienced differently, he asserted.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Most of us believe this will eventually become much more of a seasonal virus,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;I don't know that we're ready to quite declare victory and call it a seasonal virus yet, and so for the next year or two I suspect we're going to have to continue managing this in a very aggressive way and knowing that we can get outbreaks at any time.&nbsp;
&ldquo;That said, that shouldn't scare people. We have to do a mental shift away from thinking about this as an acute pandemic -- where &lsquo;my God, it dominates our lives, my God we've got to think about COVID and talk about COVID all the time' -- toward a new mental model where, &lsquo;yeah, it's around; yeah, it's going to be a problem; yeah, we need to deal with it, but we have all the tools and it's not going to disrupt our lives the same way.&rsquo; &rdquo;&nbsp;
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
This is the 41st episode of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, begun in October 2020 and available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by Providence Journal health reporter G. Wayne Miller, who has covered the pandemic since January 2020.

Welcome to Episode 41 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – As difficult as COVID-19 has made this December with omicron now the dominant variant, “we are looking toward a month of January when we’re just going to see an extraordinary number of infections across all of the country,” Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, said on Tuesday. 

“As it has been throughout, the pandemic is going to hit different parts of the country at different times,” jha said. “We're seeing pretty substantial increases in the Northeast. We're seeing Florida’s numbers just skyrocket. We're seeing this really in Los Angeles. New York City has been one of the epicenters in the U.S. So we're really seeing this across the country.” 

Jha said that while the number of reported new cases has hit record levels, the true numbers are likely even higher. 

“I actually think we're way under-counting,” he said. “Because of the holidays, people are not testing. Lot of states are not reporting. So I would argue that right now, we have more people infected in America than at any moment during the entire pandemic, no question about it. In my mind, this is pretty staggering. And we are not anywhere near peak infection.” 

According to The New York Times on Monday, 543,415 new cases were reported in the U.S. based on the latest data, with a daily average of 243,099. Rhode Island, according to The Times, had a daily average of 1,382 new cases with a positivity rate of 130 per 100,000, fifth highest in the nation, after Washington, D.C., New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

In Rhode Island, as elsewhere in the nation, the strain on hospitals concerns Jha, who spoke during recording of the latest “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast. 

“All of our major hospitals are incredibly stressed largely because of staffing shortages, because of nursing shortages,” Jha said. “So I am very worried about both the cases we saw just before Christmas and what will happen over the Christmas and New Year's holidays in terms of the number of new infections. Even if it turns out that Omicron is milder, which it probably is, there will still be enough new infections to really cause a serious problem.” 

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/11/covid-fourth-wave-rhode-island-hospitals-short-staffed-omicron-ri/6461357001/ 

 

Jha and others on many occasions have urged people to get vaccinated and boosted when eligible. Experts also have repeatedly advised people to wear masks in many settings, particularly indoors; limit the size of gatherings; make provisions for proper ventilation, and continue hand-washing. These measures can also help prevent influenza and other diseases. 

Isolation after testing positive has also been advised -- and on Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidelines. Among them is shortening the time that infected patients should isolate from ten to five days after a positive result.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/27/omicron-airlines-cancel-flights-covid-updates/9021308002/ 

 

Overall, Jha said he agrees with the new guidance. 

“I'm in favor of the CDC changes, but I understand that not everybody loves them,” he said.  

Looking deeper into 2022 and beyond, Jha said “there is no question in my mind that COVID-19 is going to be with us, probably forever but certainly for a very, very long time.” 

The question then becomes, he said, “How do we manage our lives with the virus?” 

 Similar to “the way we manage our lives with lots of other respiratory viruses” such as flu, which has never disappeared, he said. 

“We’ve got to figure out how to really lower the virulence, the way in which this virus gets people sick,” the scientist said. 

Progress has already been made, according to Jha. 

“Vaccines are going to be our primary tool,” Jha said. “We're also going to have therapies that will lower the severity of the disease, such as monoclonal [antibody therapy], oral pills like PAXLOVID from Pfizer. There will be hopefully others. It's going to become something that we manage and live with.” 

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/12/monoclonal-antibodies-hasbro-childrens-hospital-treat-covid-at-risk-kids/6478053001/

 

Jha foresees seasonality, just as with flu. 

“We'll see surges maybe even in the summer in the south, in the winter in the north, and that will become a feature of this virus,” he said. 

But the bottom line, according to the scientist, is that COVID-19 “It will not continue to torture us the way it has so far.” 

 

This is the 40th episode of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, begun in October 2020 and available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal. 

PROVIDENCE &ndash; As difficult as COVID-19 has made this December with omicron now the dominant variant, &ldquo;we are looking toward a month of January when we&rsquo;re just going to see an extraordinary number of infections across all of the country,&rdquo; Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health, said on Tuesday.&nbsp;
&ldquo;As it has been throughout, the pandemic is going to hit different parts of the country at different times,&rdquo; jha said. &ldquo;We're seeing pretty substantial increases in the Northeast. We're seeing Florida&rsquo;s numbers just skyrocket. We're seeing this really in Los Angeles. New York City has been one of the epicenters in the U.S. So we're really seeing this across the country.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha said that while the number of reported new cases has hit record levels, the true numbers are likely even higher.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I actually think we're way under-counting,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;Because of the holidays, people are not testing. Lot of states are not reporting. So I would argue that right now, we have more people infected in America than at any moment during the entire pandemic, no question about it. In my mind, this is pretty staggering. And we are not anywhere near peak infection.&rdquo;&nbsp;
According to The New York Times on Monday, 543,415 new cases were reported in the U.S. based on the latest data, with a daily average of 243,099. Rhode Island, according to The Times, had a daily average of 1,382 new cases with a positivity rate of 130 per 100,000, fifth highest in the nation, after Washington, D.C., New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="0">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html</a>
In Rhode Island, as elsewhere in the nation, the strain on hospitals concerns Jha, who spoke during recording of the latest &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast.&nbsp;
&ldquo;All of our major hospitals are incredibly stressed largely because of staffing shortages, because of nursing shortages,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;So I am very worried about both the cases we saw just before Christmas and what will happen over the Christmas and New Year's holidays in terms of the number of new infections. Even if it turns out that Omicron is milder, which it probably is, there will still be enough new infections to really cause a serious problem.&rdquo;&nbsp;
https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/11/covid-fourth-wave-rhode-island-hospitals-short-staffed-omicron-ri/6461357001/&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Jha and others on many occasions have urged people to get vaccinated and boosted when eligible. Experts also have repeatedly advised people to wear masks in many settings, particularly indoors; limit the size of gatherings; make provisions for proper ventilation, and continue hand-washing. These measures can also help prevent influenza and other diseases.&nbsp;
Isolation after testing positive has also been advised -- and on Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidelines. Among them is shortening the time that infected patients should isolate from ten to five days after a positive result. &nbsp;
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/27/omicron-airlines-cancel-flights-covid-updates/9021308002/&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Overall, Jha said he agrees with the new guidance.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I'm in favor of the CDC changes, but I understand that not everybody loves them,&rdquo; he said. &nbsp;
Looking deeper into 2022 and beyond, Jha said &ldquo;there is no question in my mind that COVID-19 is going to be with us, probably forever but certainly for a very, very long time.&rdquo;&nbsp;
The question then becomes, he said, &ldquo;How do we manage our lives with the virus?&rdquo;&nbsp;
&nbsp;Similar to &ldquo;the way we manage our lives with lots of other respiratory viruses&rdquo; such as flu, which has never disappeared, he said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve got to figure out how to really lower the virulence, the way in which this virus gets people sick,&rdquo; the scientist said.&nbsp;
Progress has already been made, according to Jha.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Vaccines are going to be our primary tool,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;We're also going to have therapies that will lower the severity of the disease, such as monoclonal [antibody therapy], oral pills like PAXLOVID from Pfizer. There will be hopefully others. It's going to become something that we manage and live with.&rdquo;&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/12/monoclonal-antibodies-hasbro-childrens-hospital-treat-covid-at-risk-kids/6478053001/" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="1">https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/12/monoclonal-antibodies-hasbro-childrens-hospital-treat-covid-at-risk-kids/6478053001/</a>
&nbsp;
Jha foresees seasonality, just as with flu.&nbsp;
&ldquo;We'll see surges maybe even in the summer in the south, in the winter in the north, and that will become a feature of this virus,&rdquo; he said.&nbsp;
But the bottom line, according to the scientist, is that COVID-19 &ldquo;It will not continue to torture us the way it has so far.&rdquo;&nbsp;
&nbsp;
This is the 40th episode of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, begun in October 2020 and available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal.&nbsp;

Welcome to Episode 39 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

Welcome to Episode 40 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – The omicron variant has been detected in more than two dozen countries, including just this week in the U.S.  

And this much is certain, says pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha: it will continue to spread. 

Beyond that, Jha asserts, uncertainties at this early stage abound, just as they did when the last major variant, Delta, was first found in India about a year ago. 

During recording of the latest “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, said he and other scientists are concerned with three major issues as they monitor developments. 

-- Ease of transmissibility, which the Delta variant has abundantly demonstrated, is one. 

“There's some data out of South Africa that suggests that it might be spreading very quickly in South Africa, but just because it does there does not mean it's going to spread more easily here,” Jha said. “The short answer is we don't know.” 

But he added: “If Omicron is as contagious or more contagious than Delta, [most regions] will end up encountering this variant as well.” 

-- A second issue is severity. 

“Does it cause more severe disease?” Jha said. “We have no idea. You may have heard stories of somebody who had mild disease, but individual cases, anecdotes, don't tell you the story. We have to look at a lot more data. We don't know if it causes milder disease or more severe disease. Obviously, we all hope it causes more mild disease, but we don't know.” 

-- A third is evasiveness, “the big issue,” as Jha described it. 

“Does it break through our vaccines?” Jha said. “We don't have the data, but here's what concerns so many of us: the mutations we see with omicron are in parts of the virus where our vaccines usually work -- the parts of the spike protein where our vaccines work. That's where we're seeing the mutations and that's what's concerning many of us.” 

Jha expects answers here relatively quickly. 

“We will get more data in the next week to 10 days,” he said. “We don't have to wait months.” 

Regarding the three current COVID vaccines – Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson – and their potential defense against omicron, Jha was asked: “Is it better to be vaccinated than to be unvaccinated?” 

“Oh my goodness, not even a close call,” Jha said. “Let's say our vaccines work a little less well. Is there any chance vaccine effectiveness goes to zero, meaning the vaccines atop working completely against omicron? There's essentially no chance in my mind that vaccines will stop working altogether.  

“So if you've been vaccinated, you'll still have some degree of protection. And most of us believe, [given] our understanding of how boosters work, that if you are fully boosted, you actually will probably have a pretty high degree of protection against Omicron.” 

Jha’s advice? If you are not vaccinated, do so. And if you are eligible for a booster shot but not yet gotten it, do so. 

During the podcast, Jha also explained why unvaccinated people who become infected with coronavirus are much more likely than vaccinated people to serve as a sort of haven in which mutations are more likely to occur. The reason, he said, is the more frequently a virus replicates, the greater the chance that one or more replications will carry a mutation. 

 “Vaccinated people most times won't even get infected, so the virus is not going to be multiplying,” Jha said. “Even if you get infected, [the virus] will be there for a much shorter period of time and you're not going to give the virus as much chance to mutate. 

“No question there's a lot more replication happening among unvaccinated people and replication is the heart of mutations that lead us to” variants such as omnicon. 

This is the 39th episode of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, begun in October 2020 and available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal. 

PROVIDENCE &ndash; The omicron variant has been detected in more than two dozen countries, including just this week in the U.S. &nbsp;
And this much is certain, says pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha: it will continue to spread.&nbsp;
Beyond that, Jha asserts, uncertainties at this early stage abound, just as they did when the last major variant, Delta, was first found in India about a year ago.&nbsp;
During recording of the latest &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health, said he and other scientists are concerned with three major issues as they monitor developments.&nbsp;
--&nbsp;Ease of transmissibility, which the Delta variant has abundantly demonstrated, is one.&nbsp;
&ldquo;There's some data out of South Africa that suggests that it might be spreading very quickly in South Africa, but just because it does there does not mean it's going to spread more easily here,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;The short answer is we don't know.&rdquo;&nbsp;
But he added: &ldquo;If Omicron is as contagious or more contagious than Delta, [most regions] will end up encountering this variant as well.&rdquo;&nbsp;
-- A second issue is severity.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Does it cause more severe disease?&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;We have no idea. You may have heard stories of somebody who had mild disease, but individual cases, anecdotes, don't tell you the story. We have to look at a lot more data. We don't know if it causes milder disease or more severe disease. Obviously, we all hope it causes more mild disease, but we don't know.&rdquo;&nbsp;
-- A third is evasiveness, &ldquo;the big issue,&rdquo; as Jha described it.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Does it break through our vaccines?&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;We don't have the data, but here's what concerns so many of us: the mutations we see with omicron are in parts of the virus where our vaccines usually work -- the parts of the spike protein where our vaccines work. That's where we're seeing the mutations and that's what's concerning many of us.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha expects answers here relatively quickly.&nbsp;
&ldquo;We will get more data in the next week to 10 days,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;We don't have to wait months.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Regarding the three current COVID vaccines &ndash; Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson &amp; Johnson &ndash; and their potential defense against omicron, Jha was asked: &ldquo;Is it better to be vaccinated than to be unvaccinated?&rdquo;&nbsp;
&ldquo;Oh my goodness, not even a close call,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;Let's say our vaccines work a little less well. Is there any chance vaccine effectiveness goes to zero, meaning the vaccines atop working completely against omicron? There's essentially no chance in my mind that vaccines will stop working altogether. &nbsp;
&ldquo;So if you've been vaccinated, you'll still have some degree of protection. And most of us believe, [given] our understanding of how boosters work, that if you are fully boosted, you actually will probably have a pretty high degree of protection against Omicron.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha&rsquo;s advice? If you are not vaccinated, do so. And if you are eligible for a booster shot but not yet gotten it, do so.&nbsp;
During the podcast, Jha also explained why unvaccinated people who become infected with coronavirus are much more likely than vaccinated people to serve as a sort of haven in which mutations are more likely to occur. The reason, he said, is the more frequently a virus replicates, the greater the chance that one or more replications will carry a mutation.&nbsp;
&nbsp;&ldquo;Vaccinated people most times won't even get infected, so the virus is not going to be multiplying,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;Even if you get infected, [the virus] will be there for a much shorter period of time and you're not going to give the virus as much chance to mutate.&nbsp;
&ldquo;No question there's a lot more replication happening among unvaccinated people and replication is the heart of mutations that lead us to&rdquo; variants such as omnicon.&nbsp;
This is the 39th episode of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, begun in October 2020 and available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal.&nbsp;

Welcome to Episode 38 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – With the CDC expected this week to grant approval of the Pfizer vaccine for children age 5 to 11, polls show that some parents and guardians are hesitant about their youngsters getting the shots – and some have said they will refuse. 

Dr. Ashish Jha’s message to them? 

“You can listen to what I have to say, but more importantly, look at what I'm doing.” 

What he is doing, the Brown University School of Public Health dean revealed on Tuesday, is having his nine-year-old son get inoculated. 

“The first possible day that the vaccine is available, he's getting the shot,” Jha said.  

Needless to say, Jha and his wife are not subjecting their child to something untested. Science stands behind their decision. 

“I have looked very, very carefully at the data and for my nine-year-old who's healthy, the benefits of the vaccines way outweigh any risks of the vaccines,” Jha said. 

“The vaccine has been given to almost 4 billion people, including tens and tens of millions of kids around the world. The vaccines are exceedingly safe. And so between the global experience of vaccinations and the long-term effects of COVID, this is not a close call. This is a ‘gotta do this.’ It's the right thing to do for your kids.” 

Some 80,000 Rhode Island residents belong to this youngest group. The state Health Department has been preparing for weeks for the CDC’s anticipated approval, which could come as soon as the end of the day Tuesday. 

“We are working to ensure that vaccine is available to this population in Rhode Island very promptly after the CDC makes their announcement,” public information officer Joseph Wendelken told The Journal. After the CDC ruling, he said, “we will be making an announcement about when eligibility gets expanded in Rhode Island.” 

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2021/10/12/covid-2021-outlook-halloween-thanksgiving-according-dr-ashish-jha/6100647001 

 

On another issue during Tuesday’s taping of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, Jha said that in Rhode Island and New England, “infection numbers are pretty stable, at a low-ish level -- not high, not tiny,” unlike last year at this time, when cooling autumn weather forced people indoors, where the coronavirus spreads easily, and the region experienced a surge. 

The Health Department on Nov. 2, 2020, reported 214 Rhode Island residents hospitalized, with 26 in ICU; new cases totaled 429; and there were six deaths. Those numbers reported on this Tuesday, a year later, were 95, 11, 224, and two, respectively. 

COVID-19 this year, Jha said, is “running up against a wall of vaccinated people, so we're not seeing those outbreaks… We're essentially at a stalemate, with the virus at a relatively low level.” 

Still, he added, “I don't want to be too kind of ‘rosy-colored glasses’ on this. Could I see outbreaks in New England over the next couple of months? Absolutely. Could we see hospitalizations rise? Yes, but I think we have so much vaccination here, so many people vaccinated, that I don't see large outbreaks in our future and I don't see anything like last winter.” 

Not necessarily so for other parts of the U.S., however, Jha said. 

“It's not just getting cold in New England, it’s also getting cold in the Midwest and the Great Plains states, and those places I’m more worried about infection,” he said. “I some places like Montana, North Dakota, infection numbers are really quite high and that's because they just don't have the same level of vaccinations. And one has to be worried about those states for the next couple of months.” 

During the taking, Jha also discussed the new Merck COVID medication, molnupiravir, saying “I am very optimistic this pill is going to end up becoming an important part of our tool set” in the fight against coronavirus disease. But he said it is no substitute for vaccination. 

And Jha went into detail about the CDC’s recent recommendation on booster shots.  

On Oct. 21, the agency declared that “eligible individuals may choose which vaccine they receive as a booster dose. Some people may have a preference for the vaccine type that they originally received, and others may prefer to get a different booster. CDC’s recommendations now allow for this type of mix and match dosing for booster shots.”

 

Three vaccines are available in the U.S.: the two-shot Pfizer and Moderna products, and the one-shot Johnson & Johnson, or J&J.  

Said Jha: “If you got the J&J, you need a second shot no matter who you are… Whether you call it a booster or you just call it a second shot in the series is up to you but you need a second shot and it doesn't matter which second shot. If you got a J&J, you can get a Moderna, a Pfizer or another J&J, and I think you're fine.  

“If you had a Moderna or Pfizer and you're in any kind of a high-risk group -- if you're older, chronically ill, high exposure -- you should get that booster. And here again, it doesn't matter which booster you get.” 

Also Tuesday, Jha stressed the importance of providing vaccines to people on all parts of the planet, not just more privileged nations. Variants have arisen in parts of the world where vaccination rates were low, Jha said, and those have spread globally. New variants could arise in similar fashion. 

This is the 38th episode of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal. 

PROVIDENCE &ndash; With the CDC expected this week to grant approval of the Pfizer vaccine for children age 5 to 11, polls show that some parents and guardians are hesitant about their youngsters getting the shots &ndash; and some have said they will refuse.&nbsp;
Dr. Ashish Jha&rsquo;s message to them?&nbsp;
&ldquo;You can listen to what I have to say, but more importantly, look at what I'm doing.&rdquo;&nbsp;
What he is doing, the Brown University School of Public Health dean revealed on Tuesday, is having his nine-year-old son get inoculated.&nbsp;
&ldquo;The first possible day that the vaccine is available, he's getting the shot,&rdquo; Jha said. &nbsp;
Needless to say, Jha and his wife are not subjecting their child to something untested. Science stands behind their decision.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I have looked very, very carefully at the data and for my nine-year-old who's healthy, the benefits of the vaccines way outweigh any risks of the vaccines,&rdquo; Jha said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;The vaccine has been given to almost 4 billion people, including tens and tens of millions of kids around the world. The vaccines are exceedingly safe. And so between the global experience of vaccinations and the long-term effects of COVID, this is not a close call. This is a &lsquo;gotta do this.&rsquo; It's the right thing to do for your kids.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Some 80,000 Rhode Island residents belong to this youngest group. The state Health Department has been preparing for weeks for the CDC&rsquo;s anticipated approval, which could come as soon as the end of the day Tuesday.&nbsp;
&ldquo;We are working to ensure that vaccine is available to this population in Rhode Island very promptly after the CDC makes their announcement,&rdquo; public information officer Joseph Wendelken told The Journal. After the CDC ruling, he said, &ldquo;we will be making an announcement about when eligibility gets expanded in Rhode Island.&rdquo;&nbsp;
https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2021/10/12/covid-2021-outlook-halloween-thanksgiving-according-dr-ashish-jha/6100647001&nbsp;
&nbsp;
On another issue during Tuesday&rsquo;s taping of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, Jha said that in Rhode Island and New England, &ldquo;infection numbers are pretty stable, at a low-ish level -- not high, not tiny,&rdquo; unlike last year at this time, when cooling autumn weather forced people indoors, where the coronavirus spreads easily, and the region experienced a surge.&nbsp;
The Health Department on Nov. 2, 2020, reported 214 Rhode Island residents hospitalized, with 26 in ICU; new cases totaled 429; and there were six deaths. Those numbers reported on this Tuesday, a year later, were 95, 11, 224, and two, respectively.&nbsp;
COVID-19 this year, Jha said, is &ldquo;running up against a wall of vaccinated people, so we're not seeing those outbreaks&hellip; We're essentially at a stalemate, with the virus at a relatively low level.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Still, he added, &ldquo;I don't want to be too kind of &lsquo;rosy-colored glasses&rsquo; on this. Could I see outbreaks in New England over the next couple of months? Absolutely. Could we see hospitalizations rise? Yes, but I think we have so much vaccination here, so many people vaccinated, that I don't see large outbreaks in our future and I don't see anything like last winter.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Not necessarily so for other parts of the U.S., however, Jha said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;It's not just getting cold in New England, it&rsquo;s also getting cold in the Midwest and the Great Plains states, and those places I&rsquo;m more worried about infection,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;I some places like Montana, North Dakota, infection numbers are really quite high and that's because they just don't have the same level of vaccinations. And one has to be worried about those states for the next couple of months.&rdquo;&nbsp;
During the taking, Jha also discussed the new Merck COVID medication, molnupiravir, saying &ldquo;I am very optimistic this pill is going to end up becoming an important part of our tool set&rdquo; in the fight against coronavirus disease. But he said it is no substitute for vaccination.&nbsp;
And Jha went into detail about the CDC&rsquo;s recent recommendation on booster shots. &nbsp;
On Oct. 21, the agency declared that &ldquo;eligible individuals may choose which vaccine they receive as a booster dose. Some people may have a preference for the vaccine type that they originally received, and others may prefer to get a different booster. CDC&rsquo;s recommendations now allow for this type of mix and match dosing for booster shots.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
Three vaccines are available in the U.S.: the two-shot Pfizer and Moderna products, and the one-shot Johnson &amp; Johnson, or J&amp;J. &nbsp;
Said Jha: &ldquo;If you got the J&amp;J, you need a second shot no matter who you are&hellip; Whether you call it a booster or you just call it a second shot in the series is up to you but you need a second shot and it doesn't matter which second shot. If you got a J&amp;J, you can get a Moderna, a Pfizer or another J&amp;J, and I think you're fine. &nbsp;
&ldquo;If you had a Moderna or Pfizer and you're in any kind of a high-risk group -- if you're older, chronically ill, high exposure -- you should get that booster. And here again, it doesn't matter which booster you get.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Also Tuesday, Jha stressed the importance of providing vaccines to people on all parts of the planet, not just more privileged nations. Variants have arisen in parts of the world where vaccination rates were low, Jha said, and those have spread globally. New variants could arise in similar fashion.&nbsp;
This is the 38th episode of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. It is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal.&nbsp;

PROVIDENCE – Do not expect a repeat of the grim fall and winter holidays of last year, when the pandemic raged. Instead, people in many parts of the U.S. can look forward to more traditional celebrations, now that “the delta surge of the summer has clearly turned a corner.” 

Such was the assessment on Tuesday by Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, during taping of the 37th taping of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast. 

“The horrible surge of the South, I think, is over,” Jha said. During the summer, he said, “Florida was among the worst in the world and now it’s well below national average.” 

Jha cited data confirming that nationally, infections, hospitalizations’ and deaths are in decline. But, the physician and scientist warned, “I think there are pockets of concern. Certainly in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains… In North Dakota, Montana, large parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, you're seeing infection numbers still rising, and I'm worried.” 

But for residents elsewhere, Jha said, the end of 2022 should be better than the last months of 2021, starting with Halloween. 

“Is it safe to go trick-or-treating? Absolutely,” said Jha. “Halloween may not be 100% normal, but let's say, very, very, very close to normal.” 

His one hesitation? 

The fact that the federal government has yet to grant emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children age five to 11. Approval is expected soon, but not in time for kids in that youngest age group to get the first and second shots required to reach full immunity. 

And for that reason, Jha urged trick-or-treaters to wear masks if they enter a residence to get their candy. He also said “especially with young kids, I wouldn’t do a house party.” 

If all guests and members of a household – including the youngsters -- are fully vaccinated, Thanksgiving and the December holidays should be as they were in 2019 and previous years, Ashish said. Those willing to err on the side of caution, he added, should consider rapid testing, particularly if someone attending a gathering is not vaccinated. 

  “If you really want to be extra careful,” he said, “give everybody a rapid test before they come over for Thanksgiving dinner. It takes 15 minutes,” and the cost, now at about $10, is expected to drop, according to Jha said. 

When everyone tests negative, Jha said, “I don't know what else you can do to make it safer. You're in an exquisitely safe situation.” 

Jha said that once approval is given to the Pfizer vaccine for young children, he will arrange for his nine-year-old child to be inoculated as soon as possible. 

And then he discussed an issue concerning many parents and guardians of children in the five-to-11 group: what factor does a child’s weight play? Pfizer has recommended doses for the youngest children to be one-third of those now administered to people 12 and older – but some 11-year-olds weigh much more than their peers. 

 “I do wish that we could do this in more of a weight-based method,” Jha said. 

Given that is not the case, he said, “this is a conversation with your pediatrician… It may be reasonable to go in a different direction, but really based on the guidance of your physician.”  

Asked about recently enacted vaccine mandates for healthcare workers in Rhode Island and many parts of the country, Jha hailed them as a success, saying that nationally, only about one percent of such workers have declined. 

“There is always going to be a small, noisy minority -- you know, the one nurse who so strongly refuses that he or she is willing to lose their job. Those are just extremely rare.” 

Jha addressed the issue of flu season coinciding again with COVID. 

“Last year, the flu basically didn't show up, he said. “And the reason is we did a lot of masking and hand-washing… and social-distancing. That made a big difference. 

“What I suspect is going to happen this year with less masking, less social-distancing, is we're going to see a lot more flu. I'm hoping that some of the lessons of COVID will keep the flu level from getting horrible.” Hand-washing remains critical to prevent spread of influenza. 

Jha urged all to get their flu shots if they haven’t already. 

The dean also answered an audience question from a man in New Jersey who wrote:  

“We have a healthy 11-year-old son who turns 12 around Dec 1.  However, under the assumption that vaccines become eligible for kids 5-11 by the end of October, does Dr. Jha have any thoughts/data about kids that age getting the lower dose right away?  Or if there are any benefits/reasons to waiting the extra month to get the same dosage kids 12+ have been getting for a while?” 

Here, too, Jha recommended a discussion with a pediatrician. 

 

The “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, debuted in late October, 2020. Nearly nine hours have been recorded through this, the 37th episode. 

PROVIDENCE &ndash; Do not expect a repeat of the grim fall and winter holidays of last year, when the pandemic raged. Instead, people in many parts of the U.S. can look forward to more traditional celebrations, now that &ldquo;the delta surge of the summer has clearly turned a corner.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Such was the assessment on Tuesday by Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, during taping of the 37th taping of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast.&nbsp;
&ldquo;The horrible surge of the South, I think, is over,&rdquo; Jha said. During the summer, he said, &ldquo;Florida was among the worst in the world and now it&rsquo;s well below national average.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha cited data confirming that nationally, infections, hospitalizations&rsquo; and deaths are in decline. But, the physician and scientist warned, &ldquo;I think there are pockets of concern. Certainly in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains&hellip; In North Dakota, Montana, large parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, you're seeing infection numbers still rising, and I'm worried.&rdquo;&nbsp;
But for residents elsewhere, Jha said, the end of 2022 should be better than the last months of 2021, starting with Halloween.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Is it safe to go trick-or-treating? Absolutely,&rdquo; said Jha. &ldquo;Halloween may not be 100% normal, but let's say, very, very, very close to normal.&rdquo;&nbsp;
His one hesitation?&nbsp;
The fact that the federal government has yet to grant emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children age five to 11. Approval is expected soon, but not in time for kids in that youngest age group to get the first and second shots required to reach full immunity.&nbsp;
And for that reason, Jha urged trick-or-treaters to wear masks if they enter a residence to get their candy. He also said &ldquo;especially with young kids, I wouldn&rsquo;t do a house party.&rdquo;&nbsp;
If all guests and members of a household &ndash; including the youngsters -- are fully vaccinated, Thanksgiving and the December holidays should be as they were in 2019 and previous years, Ashish said. Those willing to err on the side of caution, he added, should consider rapid testing, particularly if someone attending a gathering is not vaccinated.&nbsp;
&nbsp;&nbsp;&ldquo;If you really want to be extra careful,&rdquo; he said, &ldquo;give everybody a rapid test before they come over for Thanksgiving dinner. It takes 15 minutes,&rdquo; and the cost, now at about $10, is expected to drop, according to Jha said.&nbsp;
When everyone tests negative, Jha said, &ldquo;I don't know what else you can do to make it safer. You're in an exquisitely safe situation.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha said that once approval is given to the Pfizer vaccine for young children, he will arrange for his nine-year-old child to be inoculated as soon as possible.&nbsp;
And then he discussed an issue concerning many parents and guardians of children in the five-to-11 group: what factor does a child&rsquo;s weight play? Pfizer has recommended doses for the youngest children to be one-third of those now administered to people 12 and older &ndash; but some 11-year-olds weigh much more than their peers.&nbsp;
&nbsp;&ldquo;I do wish that we could do this in more of a weight-based method,&rdquo; Jha said.&nbsp;
Given that is not the case, he said, &ldquo;this is a conversation with your pediatrician&hellip; It may be reasonable to go in a different direction, but really based on the guidance of your physician.&rdquo; &nbsp;
Asked about recently enacted vaccine mandates for healthcare workers in Rhode Island and many parts of the country, Jha hailed them as a success, saying that nationally, only about one percent of such workers have declined.&nbsp;
&ldquo;There is always going to be a small, noisy minority -- you know, the one nurse who so strongly refuses that he or she is willing to lose their job. Those are just extremely rare.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha addressed the issue of flu season coinciding again with COVID.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Last year, the flu basically didn't show up, he said. &ldquo;And the reason is we did a lot of masking and hand-washing&hellip; and social-distancing. That made a big difference.&nbsp;
&ldquo;What I suspect is going to happen this year with less masking, less social-distancing, is we're going to see a lot more flu. I'm hoping that some of the lessons of COVID will keep the flu level from getting horrible.&rdquo; Hand-washing remains critical to prevent spread of influenza.&nbsp;
Jha urged all to get their flu shots if they haven&rsquo;t already.&nbsp;
The dean also answered an audience question from a man in New Jersey who wrote: &nbsp;
&ldquo;We have a healthy 11-year-old son who turns 12 around Dec 1.&nbsp;&nbsp;However, under the assumption that vaccines become eligible for kids 5-11 by the end of October, does Dr. Jha have any thoughts/data about kids that age getting the lower dose right away?&nbsp;&nbsp;Or if there are any benefits/reasons to waiting the extra month to get the same dosage kids 12+ have been getting for a while?&rdquo;&nbsp;
Here, too, Jha recommended a discussion with a pediatrician.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, debuted in late October, 2020. Nearly nine hours have been recorded through this, the 37th episode.&nbsp;

Welcome to Episode 37 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – The microbe that causes coronavirus disease may never disappear entirely, but there is an “end game” in sight for the pandemic, which means “we're going to get through this and we will get back to a normal that people will value and appreciate and love.” 

And that could be as soon as the year 2022. 

That was the prognosis Tuesday from Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, speaking during a recording of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast. 

“We still have a lot of work to do, but the bottom line is if you think about the tools necessary to bring this pandemic to an end, we have them all,” starting with safe and effective vaccines, Jha said. 

“Thinking about what the long-term looks like,” the scientist continued, “we are going to live with this virus. We're not going to eradicate it, but hopefully we can suppress it to very, very low levels. The 1918 flu pandemic was caused by this H1N1 influenza. That virus is still around, but it just doesn't cause much illness anymore.  

“So I would not be a bit surprised if the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is around forever. My hope is at very, very low levels. My hope is that most of us have immunity either from vaccines or from infections and that the infection levels are very low and then we do some things for a while to keep infection levels low, like have regular widespread testing and improve indoor air quality and occasionally, if there's an outbreak, put on masks… 

“The other thing that will help speed up this end game is if we get better treatments, which will also make it less serious.” 

Bottom line? 

“I think 2022 is going to be a much, much better year for all of this,” Jha said. 

During taping of this 36th episode of the podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, Jha also said he suspects that the autumn months for the nation as a whole will be better than some who have been following the spread of the delta variant are predicting. 

“There's an old line by Yogi Berra that predictions are hard, particularly about the future,” Jha joked, “but I'm going to make one which is: I think we as a country have peaked in our infection numbers. We had this very dramatic rise in cases all through the summer and I think in the last couple of weeks, it really looks like we've peaked.” 

Regional differences remain. 

“The infection numbers in the South really have started coming down,” Jha said. “When I look out to California, it's stabilized and coming down. New York is coming down. The Midwest and the Great Plains I still worry about; I can see infection numbers rising. Here in New England, infection numbers seem to have pretty much flattened over the last week to 10 days.” 

Nonetheless, Jha said, nationally “we still have enormous numbers of people getting infected: 140,000 and 150,000 a day, down from 175,000, but still high.”  

Deaths and hospitalizations remain unacceptable, the scientist said, “so I don't mean to paint a rosy picture of ‘sunny days are here again’ and everything is great. We have lots of challenges especially as we look to the fall, but I think the peak of this wave has crested and now we've got to figure out how to get it down quickly.” 

Jha responded to questions The Journal has received regarding the safety of large indoor gatherings, asserting that “we have the tools to do indoor concerts and conferences, but they're complicated… You've got to work harder to make those events safe.” 

He gave the example of a two-day indoor academic conference, saying “the first thing I would do is do a vaccine mandate: ‘Sorry, you can't come and spend two days indoors with a lot of people if you're not vaccinated,’ Second, I would add some rapid testing on top of antigen testing. They're cheap. They're relatively easy and I would get everybody tested upon arrival. I don't think once you've done that that you would need indoor masking.” 

Proper ventilation also is key, Jha said. 

The Brown dean said he approves of President Biden’s decision last week to use the federal Labor Department's Occupational Safety and Health Administration to implement a vaccine mandate or require regular testing for companies that employ 100 or more people. 

“I think that's a very reasonable set of regulations,” Jha said, “one certainly backed by the science. It makes sense to me that the federal government can require that as a safety measure.” 

On the topic of booster shots, Jha said it is likely that an advisory panel to the FDA in the next week or so will recommend third shots of the Pfizer and Moderna products for “high-risk people -- people who are over 65, people who have chronic diseases, certainly frail elders. My guess is, they're not going to recommend boosters for young healthy people, largely because it's really not clear that they are needed at all.” 

As for the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, Jha said he hopes the FDA will provide guidance on it, too, and not just “say ‘you're on your own’ and not give any sense of a timeline for when they'll have answers… My hope is that when the FDA advisory committee meets in the next week, they address the J&J issue. If not, I'm happy to tell you what. I think the data [indicates] people are going to need an extra shot.” 

PROVIDENCE &ndash; The microbe that causes coronavirus disease may never disappear entirely, but there is an &ldquo;end game&rdquo; in sight for the pandemic, which means &ldquo;we're going to get through this and we will get back to a normal that people will value and appreciate and love.&rdquo;&nbsp;
And that could be as soon as the year 2022.&nbsp;
That was the prognosis Tuesday from Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health, speaking during a recording of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast.&nbsp;
&ldquo;We still have a lot of work to do, but the bottom line is if you think about the tools necessary to bring this pandemic to an end, we have them all,&rdquo; starting with safe and effective vaccines, Jha said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Thinking about what the long-term looks like,&rdquo; the scientist continued, &ldquo;we are going to live with this virus. We're not going to eradicate it, but hopefully we can suppress it to very, very low levels. The 1918 flu pandemic was caused by this H1N1 influenza. That virus is still around, but it just doesn't cause much illness anymore. &nbsp;
&ldquo;So I would not be a bit surprised if the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is around forever. My hope is at very, very low levels. My hope is that most of us have immunity either from vaccines or from infections and that the infection levels are very low and then we do some things for a while to keep infection levels low, like have regular widespread testing and improve indoor air quality and occasionally, if there's an outbreak, put on masks&hellip;&nbsp;
&ldquo;The other thing that will help speed up this end game is if we get better treatments, which will also make it less serious.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Bottom line?&nbsp;
&ldquo;I think 2022 is going to be a much, much better year for all of this,&rdquo; Jha said.&nbsp;
During taping of this 36th episode of the podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, Jha also said he suspects that the autumn months for the nation as a whole will be better than some who have been following the spread of the delta variant are predicting.&nbsp;
&ldquo;There's an old line by Yogi Berra that predictions are hard, particularly about the future,&rdquo; Jha joked, &ldquo;but I'm going to make one which is: I think we as a country have peaked in our infection numbers. We had this very dramatic rise in cases all through the summer and I think in the last couple of weeks, it really looks like we've peaked.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Regional differences remain.&nbsp;
&ldquo;The infection numbers in the South really have started coming down,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;When I look out to California, it's stabilized and coming down. New York is coming down. The Midwest and the Great Plains I still worry about; I can see infection numbers rising. Here in New England, infection numbers seem to have pretty much flattened over the last week to 10 days.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Nonetheless, Jha said, nationally &ldquo;we still have enormous numbers of people getting infected: 140,000 and 150,000 a day, down from 175,000, but still high.&rdquo; &nbsp;
Deaths and hospitalizations remain unacceptable, the scientist said, &ldquo;so I don't mean to paint a rosy picture of &lsquo;sunny days are here again&rsquo; and everything is great. We have lots of challenges especially as we look to the fall, but I think the peak of this wave has crested and now we've got to figure out how to get it down quickly.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha responded to questions The Journal has received regarding the safety of large indoor gatherings, asserting that &ldquo;we have the tools to do indoor concerts and conferences, but they're complicated&hellip; You've got to work harder to make those events safe.&rdquo;&nbsp;
He gave the example of a two-day indoor academic conference, saying &ldquo;the first thing I would do is do a vaccine mandate: &lsquo;Sorry, you can't come and spend two days indoors with a lot of people if you're not vaccinated,&rsquo; Second, I would add some rapid testing on top of antigen testing. They're cheap. They're relatively easy and I would get everybody tested upon arrival. I don't think once you've done that that you would need indoor masking.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Proper ventilation also is key, Jha said.&nbsp;
The Brown dean said he approves of President Biden&rsquo;s decision last week to use the federal Labor Department's Occupational Safety and Health Administration to implement a vaccine mandate or require regular testing for companies that employ 100 or more people.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I think that's a very reasonable set of regulations,&rdquo; Jha said, &ldquo;one certainly backed by the science. It makes sense to me that the federal government can require that as a safety measure.&rdquo;&nbsp;
On the topic of booster shots, Jha said it is likely that an advisory panel to the FDA in the next week or so will recommend third shots of the Pfizer and Moderna products for &ldquo;high-risk people -- people who are over 65, people who have chronic diseases, certainly frail elders. My guess is, they're not going to recommend boosters for young healthy people, largely because it's really not clear that they are needed at all.&rdquo;&nbsp;
As for the one-shot Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine, Jha said he hopes the FDA will provide guidance on it, too, and not just &ldquo;say &lsquo;you're on your own&rsquo; and not give any sense of a timeline for when they'll have answers&hellip; My hope is that when the FDA advisory committee meets in the next week, they address the J&amp;J issue. If not, I'm happy to tell you what. I think the data [indicates] people are going to need an extra shot.&rdquo;&nbsp;

Welcome to Episode 36 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – As children including his own begin to return to the classroom, pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha expresses confidence that they and their teachers and support staff can be safe – provided school districts follow what he outlined Thursday as four requirements.

 

They are:

 

◘ Vaccinations for all who are eligible

 

◘ Proper ventilation and related mitigation measures in buildings

 

◘ Regular testing

 

◘ Mask-wearing

 

“For me this is personal,” said Jha, a resident of Newton, Mass., whose children attend public schools there. Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, serves on the Newton Public School District’s Medical Advisory Group, whose recommendations have been adopted by the district.

 

“The bottom line here is we can get all kids back to school safely this fall,” Jha said, provided school districts anywhere in the U.S. embrace the four requirements, which are in line with guidance from many other public-health leaders and the CDC and FDA.

 

But the scientist cautioned: “If we ignore the science and the data and just say, ‘let's get them back,’ it will go badly.”

 

During taping of this 35th episode of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, available from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, Jha elaborated on the four requirements.

 

“Kids 12 and over should be getting vaccinated and adults should have mandatory vaccinations,” Jha said. “To me, this is a no-brainer.”

Currently, only individuals age 12 and older are eligible for coronavirus disease vaccinations.

 

Ventilation and related mitigation measures, Jha said, are also a “no brainer.” The federal government has allocated “billions and billions of dollars” for these, Jha said, based on the science of transmission, which is unambiguous.

 

“This is an airborne disease,” Jha said. “I think school leaders should be losing their jobs if they have not improved ventilation because it's unconscionable 15, 16 months into a pandemic, when you have the money and the science and the data's clear for you not to do that. So ventilation improvements are a no-brainer -- including just being able to open windows.”

 

Third, Jha said, “is testing. We have very good data that if you do weekly testing in schools of everybody, you pick up so many infections before they've had a chance to spread that you actually dramatically lower spread in schools.”

Masking, Jha said, “is last but not least. Indoor masking especially right now where there's a surge of infections happening makes a lot of sense. Imagine we get to a point where infection numbers get really low -- I think masking could come off.

 

“So I really believe that masking is one part of a broader solution and [the fact that] we have somehow turned this into a political football makes no sense. We all agree: We’ve got to protect kids. No one says masking alone is going to do it, but it's part of a broader portfolio of activities that we absolutely need to have.”

On this podcast episode, Jha also discusses the growing number of corporations including CVS Health, Walgreens, Bank of America, Delta and United Airlines, Facebook, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, UPS, Walmart and Walt Disney that have instituted vaccine mandates for all or some of their employees.

 

He singled out Goldman Sachs, the investment bank and financial services firm that is headquartered in New York City.

 

“If you want to go visit them in their offices in New York, you have to show proof of vaccination,” Jha said. “Goldman Sachs is not your classic kind of ‘liberal public health entity…’ They want to protect their employees. They really value their employees… Their employees are their business and they want to make sure their employees are not getting sick.’’

 

Jha also discussed the rising numbers of teenagers becoming sick with coronavirus disease, saying “when you live in an unvaccinated community teens, definitely spread to each other and this is not just in schools. It’s mostly out of schools, hanging out and having sleepovers…”

 

As for younger children, Jha said “the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that they get their infections from their parents, caregivers and older siblings.”

 

The dean also weighed on the Rhode Island Department of Health’s COVID modeling that indicates hospitalizations in Rhode Island will peak in October.

“In the next two months, we should expect hospitalization numbers to continue to climb and that worries me immensely for Rhode Island because when I look at what's happening in Rhode Island -- and in many other places [of the U.S.], even New England -- I worry about hospital capacity and hospitals really getting full.”

 

Jha also answered an audience question regarding a woman in California who contracted coronavirus disease and continues to experience pulmonary symptoms which her doctor could not explain. Jha does not give specific medical advice on the podcast, but in general, he recommends long-COVID patients reach out to leading universities with hospital affiliations.

PROVIDENCE &ndash; As children including his own begin to return to the classroom, pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha expresses confidence that they and their teachers and support staff can be safe &ndash; provided school districts follow what he outlined Thursday as four requirements.
&nbsp;
They are:
&nbsp;
◘ Vaccinations for all who are eligible
&nbsp;
◘ Proper ventilation and related mitigation measures in buildings
&nbsp;
◘ Regular testing
&nbsp;
◘ Mask-wearing
&nbsp;
&ldquo;For me this is personal,&rdquo; said Jha, a resident of Newton, Mass., whose children attend public schools there. Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health, serves on the&nbsp;<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_AomykgtbLu9I8ZDSs-Ml0jeWGFWGg1b/view" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="0">Newton Public School District&rsquo;s Medical Advisory Group,</a>&nbsp;whose recommendations have been adopted by the district.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;The bottom line here is we can get all kids back to school safely this fall,&rdquo; Jha said, provided school districts anywhere in the U.S. embrace the four requirements, which are in line with guidance from many other public-health leaders and the CDC and FDA.
&nbsp;
But the scientist cautioned: &ldquo;If we ignore the science and the data and just say, &lsquo;let's get them back,&rsquo; it will go badly.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
During taping of this&nbsp;35th episode of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, available from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, Jha elaborated on the four requirements.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;Kids 12 and over should be getting vaccinated and adults should have mandatory vaccinations,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;To me, this is a no-brainer.&rdquo;
Currently, only individuals age 12 and older are eligible for coronavirus disease vaccinations.
&nbsp;
Ventilation and related mitigation measures, Jha said, are also a &ldquo;no brainer.&rdquo; The federal government has allocated &ldquo;billions and billions of dollars&rdquo; for these, Jha said, based on the science of transmission, which is unambiguous.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;This is an airborne disease,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;I think school leaders should be losing their jobs if they have not improved ventilation because it's unconscionable 15, 16 months into a pandemic, when you have the money and the science and the data's clear for you not to do that. So ventilation improvements are a no-brainer --&nbsp;including just being able to open windows.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
Third, Jha said, &ldquo;is testing. We have very good data that if you do weekly testing in schools of everybody, you pick up so many infections before they've had a chance to spread that you actually dramatically lower spread in schools.&rdquo;
Masking, Jha said, &ldquo;is last but not least. Indoor masking especially right now where there's a surge of infections happening makes a lot of sense. Imagine we get to a point where infection numbers get really low -- I think masking could come off.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;So I really believe that masking is one part of a broader solution and [the fact that] we have somehow turned this into a political football makes no sense. We all agree: We&rsquo;ve got to protect kids. No one says masking alone is going to do it, but it's part of a broader portfolio of activities that we absolutely need to have.&rdquo;
On this podcast episode, Jha also discusses the growing number of corporations including CVS Health, Walgreens, Bank of America, Delta and United Airlines, Facebook, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, UPS, Walmart and Walt Disney that have instituted vaccine mandates for all or some of their employees.
&nbsp;
He singled out Goldman Sachs, the investment bank and financial services firm that is headquartered in New York City.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;If you want to go visit them in their offices in New York, you have to show proof of vaccination,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;Goldman Sachs is not your classic kind of &lsquo;liberal public health entity&hellip;&rsquo; They want to protect their employees. They really value their employees&hellip; Their employees are their business and they want to make sure their employees are not getting sick.&rsquo;&rsquo;
&nbsp;
Jha also discussed the rising numbers of teenagers becoming sick with coronavirus disease, saying &ldquo;when you live in an unvaccinated community teens, definitely spread to each other and this is not just in schools. It&rsquo;s mostly out of schools, hanging out and having sleepovers&hellip;&rdquo;
&nbsp;
As for younger children, Jha said &ldquo;the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that they get their infections from their parents, caregivers and older siblings.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
The dean also weighed on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/24/ri-health-experts-predict-hospitalizations-peak-october/5572794001/" data-auth="NotApplicable" data-linkindex="1">the Rhode Island Department of Health&rsquo;s COVID modeling that indicates hospitalizations</a>&nbsp;in Rhode Island will peak in October.
&ldquo;In the next two months, we should expect hospitalization numbers to continue to climb and that worries me immensely for Rhode Island because when I look at what's happening in Rhode Island -- and in many other places [of&nbsp;the U.S.], even New England -- I worry about hospital capacity and hospitals really getting full.&rdquo;
&nbsp;
Jha also answered an audience question regarding a woman in California who contracted coronavirus disease and continues to experience pulmonary symptoms which her doctor could not explain. Jha&nbsp;does not give specific medical advice on the podcast, but in general, he recommends long-COVID patients reach out to leading universities with hospital affiliations.

Welcome to Episode 35 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – “I'm very worried.” 

So declared Dr. Ashish Jha this week as the highly contagious Delta variant ravages many parts of the U.S. and some models suggest “as many as 35 million Americans may get infected over the next couple of months, the next few months,” according to the pandemic expert. 

That, Jha said, “is an astronomically large number.” 

And it is being driven in large part by the numbers of people who decline to be vaccinated -- although more people are getting shots recently than earlier in the summer, said Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health. 

 “This variant is going to spare no one,” the scientist/physician said. “If you are unvaccinated, you are almost surely going to encounter this virus up close and personal. All of us will -- but for those of us who are vaccinated, we're going to encounter it as a vaccinated person and most likely will not get infected.” 

As he and many other public-health expert have repeatedly now for months, Jha urged anyone who is unvaccinated to get inoculated. That will help in the long run, but not immediately, as weeks must pass after receiving the two-shot Pfizer and Moderna products and the one-shot Johnson & Johnson before full immunity is reached. 

Speaking this week while recording the 34th episode of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, available from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, Jha also addressed the record numbers of coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among children in some parts of America. 

“We had a whole year of minimizing the infection of kids, saying ‘kids don't get sick, it's no big deal,’ ” Jha said. “Kids thankfully don’t get very sick, but some of them do and we want to be careful. The questions people are asking me right now are: ‘Is the Delta variant particularly bad for kids? Do kids get sicker with the Delta variant than they with Alpha, or the version from last year?’ 

“The short answer is, I don't know. We've been scouring the data but we don't have good data on this. So then people point to the fact that a lot of kids are getting hospitalized and are in ICUs and they say ‘how do you explain that?’ The answer is a lot of places are having very large infection numbers and if you have a massive surge, kids are not immune. They're going to get infected. Most of them will do very well, but a small number will end up getting sick and hospitalized.” 

On the topic of booster shots, Jha spoke about some fully vaccinated people who “are going surreptitiously into a [pharmacy] and acting like this is their first shot and then not showing up for their second shot. It's a mess because it totally ruins our record-keeping. Who then knows how many people have gotten vaccinated, who's gotten two shots, who's gotten three shots?” 

Jha said “this is not based on science” but then expressed the hope that the CDC, which is studying the possible need for booster shots, “should make a determination… they should guide people and they've got to push this forward. Otherwise you're going to have, you know, hundreds of millions of Americans winging it on their own. And that never turns out well.” 

During the taping, Jha also answered an audience question. A doctor in Pennsylvania wrote: 

“In the July 1 episode, Dr. Jha said there was no evidence of asymptomatic immunized people spreading COVID. Is this there any further data on this? Can pre-symptomatic immunized people spread COVID?” 

The pandemic expert’s answer, in part:   

“If the question is ‘can vaccinated people spread the virus?’ the answer is yes. We've seen it, but all the cases that I'm aware of have happened while the vaccinated person was symptomatic. What does that mean? It means that they were coughing, they had a fever when they were spreading. That's important because if you have a fever and a cough, you can isolate yourself.  

“The big question is: ‘What if you are vaccinated and you feel well, you're totally fine, can you be infected and spreading?’ We just don't know. Most of the data suggests no, but I hope you hear enough uncertainty in my voice to be very clear that I honestly don't know.” 

PROVIDENCE &ndash; &ldquo;I'm very worried.&rdquo;&nbsp;
So declared Dr. Ashish Jha this week as the highly contagious Delta variant ravages many parts of the U.S. and some models suggest &ldquo;as many as 35 million Americans may get infected over the next couple of months, the next few months,&rdquo; according to the pandemic expert.&nbsp;
That, Jha said, &ldquo;is an astronomically large number.&rdquo;&nbsp;
And it is being driven in large part by the numbers of people who decline to be vaccinated -- although more people are getting shots recently than earlier in the summer, said Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health.&nbsp;
&nbsp;&ldquo;This variant is going to spare no one,&rdquo; the scientist/physician said. &ldquo;If you are unvaccinated, you are almost surely going to encounter this virus up close and personal. All of us will -- but for those of us who are vaccinated, we're going to encounter it as a vaccinated person and most likely will not get infected.&rdquo;&nbsp;
As he and many other public-health expert have repeatedly now for months, Jha urged anyone who is unvaccinated to get inoculated. That will help in the long run, but not immediately, as weeks must pass after receiving the two-shot Pfizer and Moderna products and the one-shot Johnson &amp; Johnson before full immunity is reached.&nbsp;
Speaking this week while recording the 34th episode of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, available from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, Jha also addressed the record numbers of coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among children in some parts of America.&nbsp;
&ldquo;We had a whole year of minimizing the infection of kids, saying &lsquo;kids don't get sick, it's no big deal,&rsquo; &rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;Kids thankfully don&rsquo;t get very sick, but some of them do and we want to be careful. The questions people are asking me right now are: &lsquo;Is the Delta variant particularly bad for kids? Do kids get sicker with the Delta variant than they with Alpha, or the version from last year?&rsquo;&nbsp;
&ldquo;The short answer is, I don't know. We've been scouring the data but we don't have good data on this. So then people point to the fact that a lot of kids are getting hospitalized and are in ICUs and they say &lsquo;how do you explain that?&rsquo; The answer is a lot of places are having very large infection numbers and if you have a massive surge, kids are not immune. They're going to get infected. Most of them will do very well, but a small number will end up getting sick and hospitalized.&rdquo;&nbsp;
On the topic of booster shots, Jha spoke about some fully vaccinated people who &ldquo;are going surreptitiously into a [pharmacy] and acting like this is their first shot and then not showing up for their second shot. It's a mess because it totally ruins our record-keeping. Who then knows how many people have gotten vaccinated, who's gotten two shots, who's gotten three shots?&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha said &ldquo;this is not based on science&rdquo; but then expressed the hope that the CDC, which is studying the possible need for booster shots, &ldquo;should make a determination&hellip; they should guide people and they've got to push this forward. Otherwise you're going to have, you know, hundreds of millions of Americans winging it on their own. And that never turns out well.&rdquo;&nbsp;
During the taping, Jha also answered an audience question. A doctor in Pennsylvania wrote:&nbsp;
&ldquo;In the July 1 episode, Dr. Jha said there was no evidence of asymptomatic immunized people spreading COVID. Is this there any further data on this? Can pre-symptomatic immunized people spread COVID?&rdquo;&nbsp;
The pandemic expert&rsquo;s answer, in part:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&ldquo;If the question is &lsquo;can vaccinated people spread the virus?&rsquo; the answer is yes. We've seen it, but all the cases that I'm aware of have happened while the vaccinated person was symptomatic. What does that mean? It means that they were coughing, they had a fever when they were spreading. That's important because if you have a fever and a cough, you can isolate yourself. &nbsp;
&ldquo;The big question is: &lsquo;What if you are vaccinated and you feel well, you're totally fine, can you be infected and spreading?&rsquo; We just don't know. Most of the data suggests no, but I hope you hear enough uncertainty in my voice to be very clear that I honestly don't know.&rdquo;&nbsp;

Welcome to Episode 34 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – With the Delta variant now widespread, the World Health Organization recently repeated longstanding guidance that all people -- vaccinated or not – should wear masks. Some places in the U.S., including sprawling Los Angeles County, have advised mask-wearing for all indoors.  

But the CDC differs. 

Pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha on Thursday cut through the confusion, offering advice keyed to one’s vaccine status and where one lives. 

“I largely agree with the CDC,” Jha said during taping of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast. “What they’re really trying to do is say these decisions should be made locally and that's my view as well.” 

He gave the examples of Rhode Island and Massachusetts, which each have high vaccination rates and low numbers of new infections. Fully vaccinated people in the two states, he said, do not need to wear masks at indoor events with others who are fully vaccinated. 

“If you're hanging around vaccinated people in a low-infection community, you're fine,” said Jha. But it’s a different story in some other parts of the U.S., he said. 

“Let's say you're in southwest Missouri right now. What you're seeing is a horrible outbreak and vaccination rates are low. Even if you're vaccinated, I'd wear a mask.” 

Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, addressed the latest study, published in nature, that suggests immunity acquired through the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines may last years.   

“It is more evidence, but not definitive evidence, that these vaccines are going to last a while,” Jha said. “We're going to have reasonably long-term immunity.” Further study will provide more definitive answers over time, he said. 

The scientist also discussed the emergence of yet another COVID-19 variant -- a new version of the troublesome Delta variant that has been dubbed “Delta Plus.”  

 “I just had a long conversation about this with people in India, where it was first identified and is really spreading,” Jha said. “I'm not super worried about it. I don't think it'll become a major problem. Delta is a major problem. I don't think [Delta Plus] will be a problem even bigger than Delta. but we don't know for sure.” Like others, he awaits more data. 

During recording of this 33rd episode of the podcast, Jha answered four audience questions. 

◘ A mother of three young boys living near Dusseldorf, Germany, asked Jha’s opinion on her government’s reluctance to recommend vaccinations for children aged 12 to 18. That group is eligible in the U.S. 

“I think people should be getting vaccinated,” Jha said. “I think kids should be getting vaccinated.” 

◘ A psychotherapist living in Wisconsin had several questions regarding Long COVID. Jha spent two minutes answering. 

◘ A Boston resident asked about home tests. Jha endorsed them, but said he hopes the price will come down. 

◘ A Rhode Island woman asked about the need for a booster shot for people who have received the Johnson & Johnson one-shot vaccine. Jha devoted two minutes to this topic, too. 

 

Available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, this podcast is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal.

PROVIDENCE &ndash; With the Delta variant now widespread, the World Health Organization recently repeated longstanding guidance that all people -- vaccinated or not &ndash; should wear masks. Some places in the U.S., including sprawling Los Angeles County, have advised mask-wearing for all indoors. &nbsp;
But the CDC differs.&nbsp;
Pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha on Thursday cut through the confusion, offering advice keyed to one&rsquo;s vaccine status and where one lives.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I largely agree with the CDC,&rdquo; Jha said during taping of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast. &ldquo;What they&rsquo;re really trying to do is say these decisions should be made locally and that's my view as well.&rdquo;&nbsp;
He gave the examples of Rhode Island and Massachusetts, which each have high vaccination rates and low numbers of new infections. Fully vaccinated people in the two states, he said, do not need to wear masks at indoor events with others who are fully vaccinated.&nbsp;
&ldquo;If you're hanging around vaccinated people in a low-infection community, you're fine,&rdquo; said Jha. But it&rsquo;s a different story in some other parts of the U.S., he said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Let's say you're in southwest Missouri right now. What you're seeing is a horrible outbreak and vaccination rates are low. Even if you're vaccinated, I'd wear a mask.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health, addressed the latest study, published in nature, that suggests immunity acquired through the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines may last years.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&ldquo;It is more evidence, but not definitive evidence, that these vaccines are going to last a while,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;We're going to have reasonably long-term immunity.&rdquo; Further study will provide more definitive answers over time, he said.&nbsp;
The scientist also discussed the emergence of yet another COVID-19 variant -- a new version of the troublesome Delta variant that has been dubbed &ldquo;Delta Plus.&rdquo; &nbsp;
&nbsp;&ldquo;I just had a long conversation about this with people in India, where it was first identified and is really spreading,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;I'm not super worried about it. I don't think it'll become a major problem. Delta is a major problem. I don't think [Delta Plus] will be a problem even bigger than Delta. but we don't know for sure.&rdquo; Like others, he awaits more data.&nbsp;
During recording of this 33rd episode of the podcast, Jha answered four audience questions.&nbsp;
◘ A mother of three young boys living near Dusseldorf, Germany, asked Jha&rsquo;s opinion on her government&rsquo;s reluctance to recommend vaccinations for children aged 12 to 18. That group is eligible in the U.S.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I think people should be getting vaccinated,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;I think kids should be getting vaccinated.&rdquo;&nbsp;
◘ A psychotherapist living in Wisconsin had several questions regarding Long COVID. Jha spent two minutes answering.&nbsp;
◘ A Boston resident asked about home tests. Jha endorsed them, but said he hopes the price will come down.&nbsp;
◘ A Rhode Island woman asked about the need for a booster shot for people who have received the Johnson &amp; Johnson one-shot vaccine. Jha devoted two minutes to this topic, too.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, this podcast is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal.

Welcome to Episode 33 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness.

Welcome to Episode 33 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness

PROVIDENCE – The growing dominance of the deadly Delta variant will pose a grave risk this summer to people who are not fully vaccinated, pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, said during the latest recording of the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast. 

“If you have not gotten vaccinated, this is a potentially very dangerous time because the Delta variant is spreading,” Jha said. “It's about 6% of infections in the United States right now, doubling every two weeks. If you do the math, in about four to six weeks we'll start getting close to half… By mid-August, it'll be the dominant variant in the United States.” 

Jha said that when he assesses risk posed by variants, he examines three factors: ease of contagion, potential for high mortality, and “does it evade immunity from vaccines or prior infections?” 

The Delta variant, first detected in India, scores alarmingly on all three, Jha said. 

“It is the most contagious variant we have ever seen in this pandemic and that's going to be a huge problem,” Jha said. “Second, it does look like it's a bit more deadly than other variants. And there is some evidence that it has more ‘immune escape’ as well. So, it may be one of the first sort of true triple threats.” 

Bottom line? 

“If you have not started getting vaccinated, it's time to start,” Jha said. 

“Now here's the good news on the Delta variant,” Jha added. “If you've gotten two shots of the mRNA vaccines -- Pfizer or Moderna -- you've got 90% protection against the Delta variant. That is amazing. Thank goodness.” 

As for the single-shot vaccine available now across the U.S., Jha said “I think the Johnson & Johnson data will come in the same. We just don't have as much data. But if you got the J&J vaccine, don't freak out. You'll have almost certainly have very good protection.” 

On another topic, Jha responded to recent reports in science publications Nature and BioRxiv that once acquired, immunity to COVID-10 is long-lasting – perhaps even as long as a lifetime.  

“I don't think lifetime,” Jha said. “I'd love it if our vaccines lasted a lifetime and then we're just good to go forever. I'd be surprised. But it does really push back against this narrative that some people have been saying that we're going to need boosters in six months. I don't see us needing boosters in six months.  

“And if immunity is long-lived from a previous infection or from two doses of an mRNA vaccine or a Johnson & Johnson vaccine, I can easily imagine going at least a year and maybe even a couple of years without needing a booster.” 

Jha applauded recently reported results of clinical trials of the Novavax vaccine showing a 90.4% overall effectiveness, nearly as good as Pfizer's and Moderna's, and a 100% efficacy in preventing moderate or severe disease. 

But with ample supplies of Pfizer, Moderna and J&J in the U.S., Jha envisions the vaccine playing a critical role elsewhere on the planet. 

“I am thrilled beyond belief,” Jha said. “Because if things go well, they are on track to make as many as 1 billion doses by the end of the calendar year. That would be very helpful for the world. So as a global vaccination strategy, Novavax could end up being a really, really important player.” 

Jha also answered two audience questions: “Would you take a baby or toddler under two, who cannot wear a mask, to a grocery store?” and “Would you take a baby or toddler under two, who cannot wear a mask, on a plane?” 

Jha said in many instances, a two-year-old would be safe in a grocery store or on a plane. But his “caveat” was that geography must be considered, given the uneven status of the pandemic in different states and regions. And he said as the summer unfolds, the situation could change, especially in light of the Delta variant. 

 

Recorded weekly since October, the “COVID: What Comes Next” podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, is now being produced less frequently. This is the 32nd episode. 

 

This podcast is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal.

PROVIDENCE &ndash; The growing dominance of the deadly Delta variant will pose a grave risk this summer to people who are not fully vaccinated, pandemic expert Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University&rsquo;s School of Public Health, said during the latest recording of the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast.&nbsp;
&ldquo;If you have not gotten vaccinated, this is a potentially very dangerous time because the Delta variant is spreading,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;It's about 6% of infections in the United States right now, doubling every two weeks. If you do the math, in about four to six weeks we'll start getting close to half&hellip; By mid-August, it'll be the dominant variant in the United States.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha said that when he assesses risk posed by variants, he examines three factors: ease of contagion, potential for high mortality, and &ldquo;does it evade immunity from vaccines or prior infections?&rdquo;&nbsp;
The Delta variant, first detected in India, scores alarmingly on all three, Jha said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;It is the most contagious variant we have ever seen in this pandemic and that's going to be a huge problem,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;Second, it does look like it's a bit more deadly than other variants. And there is some evidence that it has more &lsquo;immune escape&rsquo; as well. So, it may be one of the first sort of true triple threats.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Bottom line?&nbsp;
&ldquo;If you have not started getting vaccinated, it's time to start,&rdquo; Jha said.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Now here's the good news on the Delta variant,&rdquo; Jha added. &ldquo;If you've gotten two shots of the mRNA vaccines -- Pfizer or Moderna -- you've got 90% protection against the Delta variant. That is amazing. Thank goodness.&rdquo;&nbsp;
As for the single-shot vaccine available now across the U.S., Jha said &ldquo;I think the Johnson &amp; Johnson data will come in the same. We just don't have as much data. But if you got the J&amp;J vaccine, don't freak out. You'll have almost certainly have very good protection.&rdquo;&nbsp;
On another topic, Jha responded to recent reports in science publications Nature and BioRxiv that once acquired, immunity to COVID-10 is long-lasting &ndash; perhaps even as long as a lifetime. &nbsp;
&ldquo;I don't think lifetime,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;I'd love it if our vaccines lasted a lifetime and then we're just good to go forever. I'd be surprised. But it does really push back against this narrative that some people have been saying that we're going to need boosters in six months. I don't see us needing boosters in six months. &nbsp;
&ldquo;And if immunity is long-lived from a previous infection or from two doses of an mRNA vaccine or a Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine, I can easily imagine going at least a year and maybe even a couple of years without needing a booster.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha applauded recently reported results of clinical trials of the Novavax vaccine showing a 90.4% overall effectiveness, nearly as good as Pfizer's and Moderna's, and a 100% efficacy in preventing moderate or severe disease.&nbsp;
But with ample supplies of Pfizer, Moderna and J&amp;J in the U.S., Jha envisions the vaccine playing a critical role elsewhere on the planet.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I am thrilled beyond belief,&rdquo; Jha said. &ldquo;Because if things go well, they are on track to make as many as 1 billion doses by the end of the calendar year. That would be very helpful for the world. So as a global vaccination strategy, Novavax could end up being a really, really important player.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha also answered two audience questions: &ldquo;Would you take a baby or toddler under two, who cannot wear a mask, to a grocery store?&rdquo; and &ldquo;Would you take a baby or toddler under two, who cannot wear a mask, on a plane?&rdquo;&nbsp;
Jha said in many instances, a two-year-old would be safe in a grocery store or on a plane. But his &ldquo;caveat&rdquo; was that geography must be considered, given the uneven status of the pandemic in different states and regions. And he said as the summer unfolds, the situation could change, especially in light of the Delta variant.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Recorded weekly since October, the &ldquo;COVID: What Comes Next&rdquo; podcast, available exclusively from The Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK, is now being produced less frequently. This is the 32nd episode.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
This podcast is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, health reporter for The Providence Journal.

Welcome to Episode 32 of “COVID: What comes next,” an exclusive weekly Providence Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK podcast featuring Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness.

Long before COVID, Dr. Ashish Jha was an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness. In September 2020, Jha left his position as faculty director of the Harvard Global Health Institute and became dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. Jha is a regular contributor to CBS News, ABC News, The New York Times, The Washington Post, NPR, CNN, MSNBC, TODAY, and other media outlets.  

Every week here, Jha, a practicing physician and scientist, will analyze events of the previous several days and offer his assessment and guidance for what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world. This exclusive podcast is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, healthcare reporter with the Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK. 

Long before COVID, Dr. Ashish Jha was an internationally respected expert on pandemic response and preparedness. In September 2020, Jha left his position as faculty director of the Harvard Global Health Institute and became dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. Jha is a regular contributor to CBS News, ABC News, The New York Times, The Washington Post, NPR, CNN, MSNBC, TODAY, and other media outlets.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Every week here, Jha, a practicing physician and scientist, will analyze events of the previous several days and offer his assessment and guidance for what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world. This exclusive podcast is hosted by G. Wayne Miller, healthcare reporter with the Providence Journal and the USA TODAY NETWORK.&nbsp;

COVID: What comes next - With Dr. Ashish Jha

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