Business Now | 2 December

Published Dec 2, 2024, 6:47 AM

The Albanese Government has spent $60 billion more than it has saved, economist Chris Richardson explains the budget data. Plus, Metcash's CEO Doug Jones responds to the Government's new mandatory supermarket code of conduct.

This is Business Now with Ross Greenwood. Hi there and welcome to a brand new week here on Business Now. Thanks for your company. I'm Ross Greenwood.

Coming up on the program today, economist Chris Richardson says the Albanazy government has spent sixty billion dollars more than it's saved, systemically damaging the economy and the budget.

Chris Richardson will be with us on the program shortly.

And what the supermarkets actually think about the government's new mandatory code of conduct amidst the whole cost of living crisis. We'll find out when ig Ota Metcash Chief executive Doug Jones is with us shortly. And the average home in Australia has hit eight hundred thousand dollars for the very first time. That's up around forty percent in less than five years. But can it keep going so? All that and plenty more coming up on today's program now. Other stories we think you should know about today include around one in thirty four Australian households are having trouble paying their energy bills and ninety days behind, according to later data from the Energy Regulator. The data which shows two point nine percent of retail customers are behind with their payments equates to almost two hundred thousand households under stress. Federal government energy rebates and state government concessions have noticeably eased the hardship in the past year, but the average debt remains elevated at around one one hundred and fifty dollars for those more than ninety days in arrears.

The other highlight from.

This report as in the past four years, more residential customers have shifted to smaller so called Tier two energy retailers and a clear sign the consumers are priced sensitive. Tier one retailers include AGL Origin and Energy Australia. Australia's biggest independent gold mine at Northern Star, says it will pay five billion dollars to buy de Gray Mining.

Decray, which is listed.

On the ASX, discovered the Hemi gold deposit in the Pilber region of Wa in twenty nineteen.

Now that discovery saw the.

Value of the Gray shares rise more than six times in the past four five years, but that was before this takeover.

But the agreed offer is.

Point one point nine Northern Star shares for every Degray share, and that sort it's a share price just rocket more than twenty nine percent today. By contrast, you can see that Northern Star fell five and a quarter percent because of the potential dilution of its shareholders with this offer. Though the takeovers agreed the success might come down to another gold company. This company, gold Road Resources, which owned seventeen percent of the Gray so it could potentially hold out for a higher price. And because of that, gold Road is another of the best performers on the ASX.

Today it shares up nine point four percent.

Now another story, Telstra today paid one hundred and forty million dollars to.

Buy up Boost Mobile.

Boost started almost twenty five years ago and it's one of the only resellers of Telstra's entire capital, city and regional network.

Boost was brought out.

By the US mobile company Nextell, which eventually was brought out by the larger company Sprint. Boost chairman and founder today said the acquisition is a natural evolution from the brand.

It's part of difference.

By the way you can see it here in some of these shots is the youth market and it's.

The best scene.

Through Boosts ongoing sponsorship of the votupercars, the company says the ownership change will not affect customers on prepaid plans. But look, you've seen parts of the markets. Let's get across the rest of the markets.

With Edward Boyd.

The market started pretty strongly, kind of faded off towards the end of training, didn't they.

It did Ross. There was a little kick at me up very end of the day though.

The market was on track to set a new record high closing price that they started strongly, but the retail spending figures came out they were a little bit higher than expected in the month of October. That kind of implies the RBA will need to keep interest rates high for longer in Australia. So the market started strongly, slumped and then finished the day up zero point one four percent. Liftium exposed stops had a good day after the WA government announced on Friday further stimulus to that sector, so Igo, Mineral Resources and Pilper Minerals they all lifted. Infrastructure manager Auckland Airport was up to along with the casino operator The Star, which rose about one cent, which was about eight percent of its share price. Now data intelligence company Newis It was sold off sharply. The gold miners were down two led by Resolute and Evolution online wealth manager net wealth drop. That's despite reporting one hundred billion dollars in funds under management for the first time. And GQG Partners got smashed after it was downgraded by an investment bank which thinks it could lose hundreds of millions of dollars due to its investment in.

The Indian conglomerate A Danni.

And here's a quick look at the performance of the retail wholesaler and distribute a Metcash reported it's halfy results today. The shares were up about three and a half percent this morning. They finished the day up about two point twenty four percent and ross that's markets.

So we'll now go and have a look at that whole issue about Medcash, shall we. Thing said, Well, you heard ed there mentioned that the jump in the midcash share price today. The Ida supermarket chain and grocery wholesaler has put out its half yearly profit today, which shows minimal profit growth desprite a strong jump in its sales.

Now for the half revenue was.

Just under eight and a half billion dollars. That's ahead eight point two percent of the net profit one hundred and forty one million dollars was ahead just zero point six of a percent.

The interiandevidend was trimmed from eleven.

Cents to eight and a half cents a share during me Now is the Metcast chief executive Doug Jones.

Doug, many, thanks for your time. The sales are strong.

Does that pick up some of the price rises that are coming through the supermarkets right now as a result of inflation and general increases in the cost of living.

Yeah, good afternoon, It's nice, nice to be chatting with you, and thanks for the opportunity. The sales have been really pleasing, as you've said, you know, a strong, strong sales performance on the back of continued growth in all of our pillars, particularly in food where we've added the superior food service businesses on an exterbacco basis, delivered really strong and pleasing sales results. Inflation has continued to moderate and so we're really pleased that we've held on to good, strong volume growth throughout the business.

Okay, so then tell me about competition at the moment. We've just had supermarket inquiries. You've been up before the Senate, you've spoken to our politicians. There's now a mandatory code coming in from the government, supermarkets really to blame for the increased cost of living pressures that Australians are feeling right now.

I think that the cost of living pressures are manifesting around around the country and all parts of the economy. You know, we've seen that, you know, cost of basic services is going up. Obviously, our suppliers and their own cost challenges and they're passing those on to supermarkets are who are doing what they need to do to preserve their own margins and while at the same time working hard on our own costs. So I don't think that the blame sit squarely with any one party. You know, it's all around. It's normal in inflationary times when input pressure pressures are up, then you're going to see costs of the shelf go up too, you know. I think our job, our focus is really on making sure that we keep our independent retailers as competitive as possible and making sure that we give them the opportunity to sell what our shoppers want where they wanted, in a wonderfully respectful, healthy environment of locally owned businesses. And you know, that's what we're focused on each and every day.

Was a mandatory code important to a retailer such as yourself, the supermarket chain to make certain that Coals and will Worth actually did comply with the code and comply especially with the spirit of that code.

Yeah.

Look, we've been signatories to the code for many years now, so the fact that it's now mandatory, you know, it doesn't change our compliance with it. You know, I think it's important to remember that the code actually deal with the relationships and how those relationships are governed between supermarkets on one hand and supplies on the other. And it's all about making sure that the balance of power is not abused. But it doesn't specifically deal with things like pricing advertising. That's the area for the atriple C and as you've seen, and as you've noted, atrople C has been very focused on that through these hearings that we've all participated in the last few weeks.

Okay, so you will happily comply with the mandatory code. Is there much difference in your life as compared with when it was a voluntary code?

Well, of course, the what is different on the size of the fines and you know, in some cases those finds are for administrative breaches, which is a risk and a challenge for us, and we're looking forward to making sure that we understand exactly how those will be implemented. You know, I think talking about the code, on one hand, we mustn't lose sight of the fact that additional regular burden on any business is always a challenge. But if that regulatory burden is going to be imposed on independent retailers, that's not all that's of concern for us, and we want to make sure that the intention of this code, which is about making sure that large buyers on the buy side of the equation are balancing that power and so inadvertently extending it to small, locally owned businesses I think would be a mistake, and that's something that we're concerned about and making sure that we're engaging with the authorities.

On I did call out looking at your results about the strong growth in the sales, but fairly compressed growth in the profit. You've got a project with Mudent Care, project Horizon, which is, you know, technically you say a challenge for the business. It's going to come in on time for it to work, but this is a way in which you try and get future growth is by actually using technology to squeeze out more costs from your business, just explain that, yeah.

That's exactly right.

You know, any business today will be will be investing in technology to stay at the at the forefront of what's appropriate for their business, and that's what we're doing at Metcash. Project Horizon is about replacing the EOP systems in our food and liquor businesses. It's it's a long journey, and we've delivered a number of key milestones as we've As we've gone along, I think it's important to recognize transparently upfront that it has cost more and taken longer than we originally thought. But if you look at the last couple of years, I think you'll see that in fact, we've been delivering according to the commitments that we've made, and we've been very transparent about the progress on the project. And fundamentally, what that'll do is put us on a modern cloud based suite of solutions which have a Microsoft backbone and then a best of breed around those. We've already delivered the core finance element, and of course we've also delivered the forecasting and replenishment element, which is which is delivering great dividends too.

Jones always good to chat to you here on the program and many thanks for your time today.

Thank you, Ros, thanks for having me on.

Coming up, independent economist Chris Richardson says the Albanazy government has systemically damaged the budget and our economy by spending sixteen billion dollars more than it's saved since coming to office.

Chris Richardson will be with us after the break. It's great to have your company here on business now.

Now, the Albinazi government will go to the next election with the dubious distinction of being one of the biggest, spending, highest taxing governments in our history, also one of the luckiest. But that luck is running out. We've told you for some time the budget is from now go to deteriorate fast, and there'll be no budget surplus in sight.

For the next decade at least. Now.

That analysis comes from the respected economist Chris Richardson, who joins me now. Chris, many thanks for your time. This is the reality of what Anthony Albernezi faces going to the polls. There are no interest rate cuts on the horizon. There is a cost of living crisis, energy bills arising, not falling, and then on top of that you've got this deterioration of the budget that the government really has to.

Own, and it is going to be a challenge.

Most people look at the two budget surpluses and try to understand, well, you know, that's magnificent.

How did it happen.

The answer is budgets moved not merely because of the decisions of politicians, but also because of the everything else out there in the economy.

Three big things, war.

Migration, and inflation all added to the tax take in recent times much more than treasury expected.

You just flashed up that chart. It added to more than a third of a.

Trigon dollars added into expected taxes by Treasury as a result of that combination.

Okay, so a third of the trillion dollars. Now you'd sit there and say you'd be hard pressed to spend that money, But this government has found ways to spend it. And yes, it's got budgets back into surplus to its credit. But the reality is its own measures now are baked into the budget and that's the reason why there is no budget repair anytime seen soon in the next decade.

The oldest mistake in the budgetary book, and others have done it before, is you know you get a phase of luck and it looks better, and so you spend. There's always demands from pretty much everywhere across the nation for extra spending.

The government since being elected.

Has made decisions that have added one hundred and four billion dollars to spending.

They've also added forty.

Four billion to taxing, so that's a bit of an offset than nean to the two a sixty billion dollar worsening in the barget that didn't matter in the sense that it didn't stop surpluses because of the luck that was rolling in. But the luck is now turning. You look at those three things. War added to the price of the stuff we sell to the world. Migration gave us more people to tax. Inflation took money from families gave it to government. Each of those three things is now winding down and its impact on the budget that makes it less easy from here.

Okay, So normally what happens is that governments and treasury underestimate the revenue that will come in, and so by doing that they underestimate the price of iron, or the price of coal, maybe the unemployment rate. All those things they generally tend to undercook, so that there is almost a hollow log of cash that comes in as a surprise, but that also is disappearing.

Yeah, and so those factors you point to, we've seen it in steroids in recent times. Freether his misses were big around things like colon Iroe or prices. They were big around migration, they were big initially around inflation, and that combination put much more extra tax dollars into Canberra's.

Pockets, and that's always been a risk.

We saw a face Hold and Costello were lucky, not as lucky as the current government has been, but Howd and Costello similarly enjoyed a lucky boost to the budget.

And that's when governments make mistakes.

They assume the luck is here to stay and they spend too much of it.

Okay, Chris, is there anything the Treasurer Jim Charmers now he wants to be seen as one of the great treasurers of Australia, a reforming treasurer.

Somebody is very active. Is there anything he can do to help fix this right now?

And ahead of the election, it's probably too late.

A bunch of the things that need doing in the budget are going to be very unpopular one way or another.

On the tax side.

We don't tax guests properly, we don't tax superinnuation properly.

We tax cigarettes a lot, but.

We don't enforce it, leading to a huge black market. There are all sorts of problems on the tax site. On the spending side, there's that sweetheart deal on the GST share that Western Australia gets. There's things like the NDIS, which is magnificent in concept. It's trying to do the right thing, but how we actually do it is ending up failing both the nations disabled and our taxpayers.

You know, these tricky problems.

That we have let fester partly because the luck handed us a bunch of money and the pressure came off doing the hard yards on budget reform.

Okay, it's going to be fascinating.

Justice see exactly what takes place from here, whether we at the midyear financial and economic outlook or fiscal and economic outlook, whether we get a new budget, we don't know.

Chris Richardson, many thanks for your time.

That's ross.

So let's now get across the auction numbers from this weekend. Over the weekend around Australia, there were two thousand, four hundred and sixty seven options, and the national clearance rate was just a tick over fifty seven percent now, just for context, a month ago, the clearance rate averaged around fifty nine percent. Six months ago it was well above sixty percent now. In Sydney eight hundred and sixty eight actions the cleans right here lower than the average fifty five and a half percent, and also there was another around seven one hundred and sixty private sales on top. In Melbourne, really big weekend for auctions, more than one thousand properties run under the hammer. The clearance rate here was also healthy, sixty three point eight percent, plus another thirteen hundred and thirty private sales across Victoria. In Brisbane eighty auctions, a clearance right here fifty five percent plus because they have more private sales around one thousand, two hundred and forty private sales. To Adel eight ninety eight auctions, the clearance right here again relatively strop holding up two percent. There was another two hundred and ninety five private sales, and in Camp seventy three auctions, the clearance rate easing off here fifty nine percent or so one hundred and thirty six private sales. Well, let's bring in here Eleanor Crane, the senior economist with Ria Group.

Eleanor always got to have you on there. Today your home price index comes out. Now. This is important because.

Basically what you're saying is that the average medium price for a home in Australia right now has hit eight hundred thousand.

But that's kind of skewed by Sydney prices, isn't it.

Yeah, So the median value of a dwelling nationally hitting eight hundred thousand dollars for the first time. That's with a pretty small point one five percent uplifting in national home prices throughout November. It brings national prices up around five and a half percent or levels in this time last.

Okay, can I pick you up there?

Because at five and a half percent the median home price has risen over the past year.

That's fast a than inflation. So in other words, for.

Most people who have got a home, they've done better than inflation.

And you can't really expect to do much better or worse than that, can you. Yeah?

Certainly for those that already own a home at the moment, they're likely to be sitting on substantial home equity gains. We know that prices are up in the capital city markets at the moment around forty percent on pre pandemic levels. Some markets around the country, though, home owners likely to be sitting even prettier, So Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth home price is up a little over eighty percent over the past five years in those.

Markets, So owning a home during that period.

Now we say pre pandemic, we're talking four and a half years ago. We're talking March twenty twenty, so the median price has gone up by forty percent around Austraia, forty.

One percent since that time. But as you put out in Brisbane, eighty percent in Perth.

In Perth, you've got the best or rather eighty percent for Perth and also Brisbane and Adelaide as well. So these are big gains for many of these state capitals as well.

Yeah, that's exactly right, certainly big gains. And I mean we've seen now that the median value of homes in Adelaide, so seven hundred and ninety five thousand dollars in Nova has now outpaced Melbourne, So Melbourne dropping back to actually the fifth most expensive capital now from fourth place last month and from third place earlier in the year, with Brisbane having also overtaken Melbourne earlier.

Then you've got peaks, say in Sydney, in Brisbane, in Adelaide, in Perth right now still at peak levels, but in places like Melbourne they've come off. In Tazi they've come off, so in Darwin they've come off. So there are some places where there's a little bit more pressure.

Yeah, it really speaks to the divergence in housing market conditions around the country and the very many factors that drive home price growth. So Melbourne home price is down around four point six percent from their peak just before interest rates began to rise in twenty twenty two. Hobart as well, conditions there have been significantly weaker. So Hobar's market has really been in a two and a half year.

Down to okay, So it was a time for sellers to be able to take advantage of say developers who have built maybe.

Still having properties in the market.

We can say with the clearance right there's a lot of property on the market right now. So is now the time where shall I say, opportunistic buyers can jump in there and really try and sort of bid down the asking prices that might be out there.

Certainly in Melbourne.

I think that that's the case where conditions have been very much subdued for most of this year's prices falling for seven of the past eight months in Melbourne, and really a lot more stock on market. So total stock on market in Melbourne around thirty percent above the prior five year average.

Jill, it all great, Many thanks for your time, thank you for having me.

So that's it for today's program. Many thanks for your company.

We'll see you tomorrow.

Business Now with Ross Greenwood

As the market closes each day, Ross Greenwood brings you breaking business news you can’t afford to  
Social links
Follow podcast
Recent clips
Browse 786 clip(s)