Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Sebastien Page & Dean Curnutt

Published Mar 19, 2025, 5:00 PM

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Sebastien Page & Dean Curnutt.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Single best idea, and today there were uncountable single best ideas into a FED Day special thanks to IF Steve and England are on from Standard Charter Bank and just before him, Michael Kushma of Morgan Stanley is what the magic's all about. These are very very experienced, very wise wisdom, wise wise people and that was the way the whole show was today. It was just great. Sebastian Page showed up. He grew up in Quebec, in the land of the hockey stick and Srbrooke, Quebec, that is where they make all the hockey sticks. It was like the Vatican of my childhood, if you will. We talked with him about Canada, had some incredible insights about the tensions and the fifty first state concept, but mostly we talked to Sebastian Page, hero Price about allocation and about where we are right now.

We're not panicking, Tom. I think market's the economy. I think we're going to be okay. We're looking at a slow down. The data for the consumer is showing that things are slowing down and the markets is selling off. But it's not just because of tariff headlines. It's because of the growth slowdown, it's because we had extremely high valuations going into this. And yes, the word of the hour uncertainty. So it's a combination of all these things. But I don't think we're getting a recession.

Sebastian Page. I can't say enough about his book. Got a couple of years ago and asked an allocation. Look for that on Amazon. Sebastian Page. Page and a wonderful more pro book on diversification and allocation mistakes that are made. One of our mistakes is to not have on enough d current of macro risk advisors are really pro. Note a sophisticated PowerPoint from him. Get that from Macro Risk Advisors. But lots of talk about Dean Kurrent really on fire about gold. I didn't even see until an hour into the program today gold out at record highs. I believe three zero four seven, that's OMG, are you kidding? But Dean Kurr, we talked about gold. But here Dean Kerne on the uncertainty.

It's the sequencing of down a percent, down a percent and a half that has led to, you know, a pretty good destruction of wealth at the S and P level, that of course has lifted the VIX, but it's been a controlled demolition, as one client put it, and I think that's a I think that's well said. So the cross moments, I don't think are flaring in a big way. It's not like we had a VIX of ten that went to thirty. We had a VIX of fourteen or fifteen that climbed its way into the low twenties level. So it's, like I said, very controlled. And I think the hand off here is okay. The pods for the big multi strat hedge funds have had to de risk. That's caused a lot of factor volatility, a lot of rotation. But the big handoff now is what is the impact on the real economy. I took real interest in the piece on the Bloomberg terminal yesterday quoting Morgan Stanley's president saying deal making has really gotten frozen here, yep, right. So it does feel like corporate America has been stymied by the start stop of the tariff negotiations.

Dean Kernant. And this is why we love the conversations and why we try to bring a few of them to you with single best idea in your busy podcast day. That's the single best phrase I've heard for the moment. We're in controlled demolition. Dean Kurnet's stealing that from a client. We'll steal it from Dean Kernet. I think it's just really really brilliant, and your commute across the nation. Thank you so much for your morning attention. Had a gentleman. He sits in his kitchen and forces his young offspring to listen to us in the morning. That is cruel, that is unusual. That is punishment, But we thank you. And on podcasts, we'll go look at YouTube podcasts for single best idea

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