Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single.

Best idea and just a little vignette into how we do the show. The dirty secret is we do the show because our guests really liked come on. That is the foundational thing we learned over two decades ago was if you make it fun and smart, Jim Bianco will get up at six am in California when he's on vacation to do the show. And we really appreciate effort from mister Bianco like that and from so many others. Michael Darta not so strenuous this morning with Roth Capitol. Michael Darta on where we are now looking at the past, the good news of double digit in a new world.

Best idea and just a little vignette into how we do the show. The dirty secret is we do the show because our guests really liked come on. That is the foundational thing we learned over two decades ago was if you make it fun and smart, Jim Bianco will get up at six am in California when he's on vacation to do the show. And we really appreciate effort from mister Bianco like that and from so many others. Michael Darta not so strenuous this morning with Roth Capitol. Michael Darta on where we are now looking at the past, the good news of double digit in a new world.

I think it's going to be really hard to maintain that double digit growth. I mean, if you just do a super basic Tom Keen scatterplot regression on forward pees in ten year future returns, you know, coming into the year with the forward pe twenty two x, you know, typically that's a level where you see very weak, potentially even negative ten year forward returns. So the higher the valuations, the lower the longer term forward returns are. And you know that's a little bit of a different game than the chase that's been on with momentum, and then more broadly, I do think that these disruptions to the supply side eat away at the earnings expectations.

I think it's going to be really hard to maintain that double digit growth. I mean, if you just do a super basic Tom Keen scatterplot regression on forward pees in ten year future returns, you know, coming into the year with the forward pe twenty two x, you know, typically that's a level where you see very weak, potentially even negative ten year forward returns. So the higher the valuations, the lower the longer term forward returns are. And you know that's a little bit of a different game than the chase that's been on with momentum, and then more broadly, I do think that these disruptions to the supply side eat away at the earnings expectations.

Michael Dartera. There is just brilliant throughout the entire conversation of talking about the geopolitical shocks, the international shocks, is supply side shocks, which just put a damp or put a weight on everything. And of course that mystery of where is forward GDP growth right now? Is it sub two percent? Atlanta GDP a negative statistic right now? That's at least right now that could subject change as we stagger out to March thirty one, which is next Monday. Cam Dawson knows that she too is trying to consider the uncertainties that are out there. Cam Dawson a new edge on her double digit take.

Michael Dartera. There is just brilliant throughout the entire conversation of talking about the geopolitical shocks, the international shocks, is supply side shocks, which just put a damp or put a weight on everything. And of course that mystery of where is forward GDP growth right now? Is it sub two percent? Atlanta GDP a negative statistic right now? That's at least right now that could subject change as we stagger out to March thirty one, which is next Monday. Cam Dawson knows that she too is trying to consider the uncertainties that are out there. Cam Dawson a new edge on her double digit take.

Yeah, I think that that's very very likely. Is that we've been in this world of very strong double digit returns the last two years. Investors got conditioned to expecting that, which is why you saw these estimates for seven thousand plus in the S and P five hundred. That's very hard to do when you start the year at twenty two point six times forward earnings. You start the year at the ninetieth percent tile of positioning. So our best case scenario for twenty twenty five is that you get growth upside that's equivalent to earnings growth. But that assumes that multiple stay constant. And we're not sure if you get multiple stay in constant in a world where you're cutting earning sestaments and there's some risk off flavor review.

Yeah, I think that that's very very likely. Is that we've been in this world of very strong double digit returns the last two years. Investors got conditioned to expecting that, which is why you saw these estimates for seven thousand plus in the S and P five hundred. That's very hard to do when you start the year at twenty two point six times forward earnings. You start the year at the ninetieth percent tile of positioning. So our best case scenario for twenty twenty five is that you get growth upside that's equivalent to earnings growth. But that assumes that multiple stay constant. And we're not sure if you get multiple stay in constant in a world where you're cutting earning sestaments and there's some risk off flavor review.

That again, Kim Dawson. A new edge when multiples stay constant. I think I talked about this yesterday or the day before. I forget, but let's do it again. A multiple is a ratio, a numerator and down below a denominator, and they both move. They move somewhat correlated, but also move separately. So there's four outcomes. The numerator goes up, the numerator goes down, the denominator, the numerator goes up, the denominator goes down. So there can be movement or dynamics in your study of any given ratio that you look at. I'll be honest. They spend less time on PE and much more on a study a free cash flow. What we know is we've studied the impact of the show digitally in America, in Canada, in Mexico, around the world, and we're just humbled by it. Subscribe to us out at Bloomberg Podcasts and on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea m

That again, Kim Dawson. A new edge when multiples stay constant. I think I talked about this yesterday or the day before. I forget, but let's do it again. A multiple is a ratio, a numerator and down below a denominator, and they both move. They move somewhat correlated, but also move separately. So there's four outcomes. The numerator goes up, the numerator goes down, the denominator, the numerator goes up, the denominator goes down. So there can be movement or dynamics in your study of any given ratio that you look at. I'll be honest. They spend less time on PE and much more on a study a free cash flow. What we know is we've studied the impact of the show digitally in America, in Canada, in Mexico, around the world, and we're just humbled by it. Subscribe to us out at Bloomberg Podcasts and on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea m