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This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

President Donald Trump is getting ready to renounce some auto tariffs that is expected to come at four pm today. We heard that from the White House spokesperson. This would be a move that would certainly escalate his fight with global trading partners ahead of a broader tariff push next week.

President Donald Trump is getting ready to renounce some auto tariffs that is expected to come at four pm today. We heard that from the White House spokesperson. This would be a move that would certainly escalate his fight with global trading partners ahead of a broader tariff push next week.

We're expecting comments from the White House at four o'clock. We will bring the President's comments to you live as we do get them. In the meantime, US tariffs on copper imports could be coming within several weeks, months earlier than the deadline for a decision. Also, according to people familiar with the matter, coppor trading in New York rose to a record as a result with a tariff round up. Back with US is Bloomberg News. Medals and Mining, heavy Machinery reporter Jodo who joins us here in the studio. Usually I have this little chart Joe that keeps me up to date with the tariffs, the who, the what, the where and the when. Yeah, but fortunately we got you in the studio today, and that's much better than my little cheat sheet.

We're expecting comments from the White House at four o'clock. We will bring the President's comments to you live as we do get them. In the meantime, US tariffs on copper imports could be coming within several weeks, months earlier than the deadline for a decision. Also, according to people familiar with the matter, coppor trading in New York rose to a record as a result with a tariff round up. Back with US is Bloomberg News. Medals and Mining, heavy Machinery reporter Jodo who joins us here in the studio. Usually I have this little chart Joe that keeps me up to date with the tariffs, the who, the what, the where and the when. Yeah, but fortunately we got you in the studio today, and that's much better than my little cheat sheet.

It's it's a lot, right, And it's like even like if you're on the weekends hanging out with like friends who don't care about markets, they're like, oh, tariffs, do you want to talk about the tariffs? I mean that's how it's just become like part of the conversation in the US right is like one thing everybody knows is happening, you know, beyond the signal story that happened the other day is terroriffs.

It's it's a lot, right, And it's like even like if you're on the weekends hanging out with like friends who don't care about markets, they're like, oh, tariffs, do you want to talk about the tariffs? I mean that's how it's just become like part of the conversation in the US right is like one thing everybody knows is happening, you know, beyond the signal story that happened the other day is terroriffs.

Well to that point, we see it hit consumer sentiment. And when you see consumers cite this stuff as the reason that they're concerned, you know, it's reaching a level that typically financial news doesn't reach when it comes to everyday people.

Well to that point, we see it hit consumer sentiment. And when you see consumers cite this stuff as the reason that they're concerned, you know, it's reaching a level that typically financial news doesn't reach when it comes to everyday people.

Yeah, and I think, listen, this is where or it's important for us when we're doing these stories to kind of keep in mind, like what is the consumer impact so Copper, for example, this this report that we had last night we've been working on now for a little bit. We had started hearing, Wow, actually, these these tariffs might be coming sooner than expected. Now to put that into context is a little wonky. When we got steel and aluminum terraffs in twenty eighteen, the President of the United States announced in twenty seventeen that he was doing the so called Section two thirty two investigations to put tariffs on steel and aluminum imports because they had feared that the import market was impacting national security. At the time, like nobody had heard of this. Like when we first talked about this, you guys might not remember it.

Yeah, and I think, listen, this is where or it's important for us when we're doing these stories to kind of keep in mind, like what is the consumer impact so Copper, for example, this this report that we had last night we've been working on now for a little bit. We had started hearing, Wow, actually, these these tariffs might be coming sooner than expected. Now to put that into context is a little wonky. When we got steel and aluminum terraffs in twenty eighteen, the President of the United States announced in twenty seventeen that he was doing the so called Section two thirty two investigations to put tariffs on steel and aluminum imports because they had feared that the import market was impacting national security. At the time, like nobody had heard of this. Like when we first talked about this, you guys might not remember it.

I do.

I do.

It was like, what is section two thirty two, and how can we claim this thing? Well, now it's very well known and the markets know it very well, and Donald Trump knows it very well. And what Donald Trump knows is that Section two thirty two is not only an executive power that he has, but one that he implemented and one that was tried by the courts, and the courts said last time around, Yeah, all of this is legal. This is exactly the power that he has. We talked about this when he re implemented the Section two thirty two aluminum and steal tarriffs just last month when he put the twenty five percent on or earlier this month, and that brings us to copper. Copper was not among any of the investigations in the first term. And when Trump brought up that he wanted to do copper taroffs, he said it. He said it when he was talking about the Canada Mexico stuff. I know we're getting into it, but he said it in his quote unquote State of the Union address where he said we're going to do copper as well. It was a weird one because he had just announced an investigation in Section two thirty two on copper, but he said in the conversation, well, we're going to do these terrorists.

It was like, what is section two thirty two, and how can we claim this thing? Well, now it's very well known and the markets know it very well, and Donald Trump knows it very well. And what Donald Trump knows is that Section two thirty two is not only an executive power that he has, but one that he implemented and one that was tried by the courts, and the courts said last time around, Yeah, all of this is legal. This is exactly the power that he has. We talked about this when he re implemented the Section two thirty two aluminum and steal tarriffs just last month when he put the twenty five percent on or earlier this month, and that brings us to copper. Copper was not among any of the investigations in the first term. And when Trump brought up that he wanted to do copper taroffs, he said it. He said it when he was talking about the Canada Mexico stuff. I know we're getting into it, but he said it in his quote unquote State of the Union address where he said we're going to do copper as well. It was a weird one because he had just announced an investigation in Section two thirty two on copper, but he said in the conversation, well, we're going to do these terrorists.

Look, oh, he did.

Look, oh, he did.

He did right, which was a bit of a slip of the tongue because he still needs to wait for his Commerce department to do the investigation. The investigation goes two hundred and seventy days long. But we've learned from our sources that the market should expect this to come much sooner. In fact, what our sources were telling us was you're going to hear some sort of decision within weeks, not months the market was expecting months. What month exactly unclear, but Goldman Sachs had been saying we expect a twenty five percent tariff on copper sometime at the end of the year. Is kind of how they phrased it in notes to their clients earlier this week.

He did right, which was a bit of a slip of the tongue because he still needs to wait for his Commerce department to do the investigation. The investigation goes two hundred and seventy days long. But we've learned from our sources that the market should expect this to come much sooner. In fact, what our sources were telling us was you're going to hear some sort of decision within weeks, not months the market was expecting months. What month exactly unclear, but Goldman Sachs had been saying we expect a twenty five percent tariff on copper sometime at the end of the year. Is kind of how they phrased it in notes to their clients earlier this week.

Well, it's a lot earlier.

Well, it's a lot earlier.

It's going to be a lot earlier according to our sources.

It's going to be a lot earlier according to our sources.

So what's the impact of that, And remind us, forgive us, because I know you're so good at like reminding everybody for this in this example, like what the copper market is, what's the US exposure to what we do? Remind us, so what it is and what impact it might so have.

So what's the impact of that, And remind us, forgive us, because I know you're so good at like reminding everybody for this in this example, like what the copper market is, what's the US exposure to what we do? Remind us, so what it is and what impact it might so have.

We consume one point eight million tons of copper per year in the United States. That copper is one of the most ubigulous metals. It's used in everything your iPhones, your laptops, these microphones, the wiring in your house, the wiring in your car. It's everywhere you touch copper at some point every day in your life. So in terms of tonnage, it's not the size of steel that it is quite important. So it's one point eight million tons. Half of that we import, so it's about nine hundred thousand tons we require to import. What really happened in the market is you need to remember demand across the economy is lackluster. So it's not like we're having this big explosion demand in the United States for appliances, for cars, like, everything's just kind of there. But we have seen a trade happening in the market. The rest of the world understands that there could be a twenty five percent tariff put on copper in the United States. Well, there's copper all over the world. So traders have been playing this by saying the copper price in the United States is about eleven five hundred dollars per ton. In London it's about ten thousand dollars per ton, So why wouldn't you just take that physical metal, ship it into the United States and catch the ARB window. And that has been the story now for weeks. Well now everybody's realizing that there might be an earlier end date for when you need to get in under the terrace. And that's what a lot of the bank analysts were reporting on today was listen, if there's a shorter timeline for when President Trump expects to announce the tariff, then that ARB should eventually close, right, Like if the ARB is at like nineteen percent spread, right, then eventually twenty five percent is what the spread would be, and then the ARB is done.

We consume one point eight million tons of copper per year in the United States. That copper is one of the most ubigulous metals. It's used in everything your iPhones, your laptops, these microphones, the wiring in your house, the wiring in your car. It's everywhere you touch copper at some point every day in your life. So in terms of tonnage, it's not the size of steel that it is quite important. So it's one point eight million tons. Half of that we import, so it's about nine hundred thousand tons we require to import. What really happened in the market is you need to remember demand across the economy is lackluster. So it's not like we're having this big explosion demand in the United States for appliances, for cars, like, everything's just kind of there. But we have seen a trade happening in the market. The rest of the world understands that there could be a twenty five percent tariff put on copper in the United States. Well, there's copper all over the world. So traders have been playing this by saying the copper price in the United States is about eleven five hundred dollars per ton. In London it's about ten thousand dollars per ton, So why wouldn't you just take that physical metal, ship it into the United States and catch the ARB window. And that has been the story now for weeks. Well now everybody's realizing that there might be an earlier end date for when you need to get in under the terrace. And that's what a lot of the bank analysts were reporting on today was listen, if there's a shorter timeline for when President Trump expects to announce the tariff, then that ARB should eventually close, right, Like if the ARB is at like nineteen percent spread, right, then eventually twenty five percent is what the spread would be, and then the ARB is done.

Joe, you said, forgive me. You said, half of the copper that we use in the US we import, We get half of it from the US.

Joe, you said, forgive me. You said, half of the copper that we use in the US we import, We get half of it from the US.

Yeah, so about half of what we consume is produced US ethnic domestic exactly, and then the other half comes from abroad.

Yeah, so about half of what we consume is produced US ethnic domestic exactly, and then the other half comes from abroad.

So is there enough copper supply in the US. No, to satisfy it. Want to satisfy the needs absolutely. The reason I ask is because the whole idea with these tariffs, at least from the President's perspective, is to bring commerce into the United States back to the United States. In this case, it's not like you can start producing more or extracting more copper from the US to nicate the need port copper, right. It doesn't seem like it has the same mechanisms that some of the other tariffs that he's implemented or talked about implementing.

So is there enough copper supply in the US. No, to satisfy it. Want to satisfy the needs absolutely. The reason I ask is because the whole idea with these tariffs, at least from the President's perspective, is to bring commerce into the United States back to the United States. In this case, it's not like you can start producing more or extracting more copper from the US to nicate the need port copper, right. It doesn't seem like it has the same mechanisms that some of the other tariffs that he's implemented or talked about implementing.

Have Yeah, it's a bit of a weird one. And we asked this question too, is like why has Trump focused on copper and you know, One of the things is like copper is technically kind of the make America great again umbrella. Right, Like copper we were a great we have been, we still are a great copper producing country, but we used to be larger. The question becomes, can you get the minds up and running and can you get the processing facilities to a scale that you'd be talking about to offset it. Honestly, I don't think the discussion has been, oh well, let's just like completely, you know, change the way production is in the United States. The conversation has more just been let's do this because we should. And listen, you know, Freeport mcmaran, Rio Tinto, like, there are big names that operate in this inside this country, and sure they'd probably be more than happy to start doing a little more production, mine production, more processing production. But you know, like at the same time, they're also shipping into the United States.

Have Yeah, it's a bit of a weird one. And we asked this question too, is like why has Trump focused on copper and you know, One of the things is like copper is technically kind of the make America great again umbrella. Right, Like copper we were a great we have been, we still are a great copper producing country, but we used to be larger. The question becomes, can you get the minds up and running and can you get the processing facilities to a scale that you'd be talking about to offset it. Honestly, I don't think the discussion has been, oh well, let's just like completely, you know, change the way production is in the United States. The conversation has more just been let's do this because we should. And listen, you know, Freeport mcmaran, Rio Tinto, like, there are big names that operate in this inside this country, and sure they'd probably be more than happy to start doing a little more production, mine production, more processing production. But you know, like at the same time, they're also shipping into the United States.

All Right, I know there's going to be more to come.

All Right, I know there's going to be more to come.

We know we could probably talk an hour with you, but you're just going to have to hopefully come.

We know we could probably talk an hour with you, but you're just going to have to hopefully come.

Back tomorrow or something.

Back tomorrow or something.

Jojo, thank you, because it certainly is top of mind for us. On this Wednesday, Bloomberg News, Metals and Mining Heavy Machinery reporter Jojoe joining us here in studio.

Jojo, thank you, because it certainly is top of mind for us. On this Wednesday, Bloomberg News, Metals and Mining Heavy Machinery reporter Jojoe joining us here in studio.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Borers are piling into the global bond market, and what they're looking to do is get some deals done ahead of US President Donald Trump's plans to impose global tariffs on April second. You know, tariffs have been top of mine once again today, so global bond investors really kind of looking to take advantage of this week's relative calm in the market for today.

Borers are piling into the global bond market, and what they're looking to do is get some deals done ahead of US President Donald Trump's plans to impose global tariffs on April second. You know, tariffs have been top of mine once again today, so global bond investors really kind of looking to take advantage of this week's relative calm in the market for today.

I was kind of like, I was thinking about this when a relative, Tom Carrol, I know exactly. It was kind of mellow for a while.

I was kind of like, I was thinking about this when a relative, Tom Carrol, I know exactly. It was kind of mellow for a while.

But the bomb market's mellow today.

But the bomb market's mellow today.

Yeah, I guess I guess you could say I feel like tik tik tik. We're waiting to see what's next.

Yeah, I guess I guess you could say I feel like tik tik tik. We're waiting to see what's next.

We's with more. We got Rejief Sharma with us, managing director of fixed Income Investments over at Key Private Bank. It's a division of the publicly held eighteen billion dollar market cap bank Key Corp. Sixty billion dollars in assets under management for Key Private Bank. Ree chief joins us in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek studio. The fixed income market, we know lots of moving parts. The headlines though, the developments that you're following the most closely. What is it?

We's with more. We got Rejief Sharma with us, managing director of fixed Income Investments over at Key Private Bank. It's a division of the publicly held eighteen billion dollar market cap bank Key Corp. Sixty billion dollars in assets under management for Key Private Bank. Ree chief joins us in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek studio. The fixed income market, we know lots of moving parts. The headlines though, the developments that you're following the most closely. What is it?

You know, there's been so much uncertainty in the market. There's been this big push for you know, are we having a growth scare? Is there going to be a slow down in the economy? And what we're really looking at here is this is the opportunity right now for investors to look at asset allocation, how their portfolios look. And that's where fixed income comes into play. When you start seeing all this vola toady in the market, you see most of them the equity side. We haven't seen that level of voltodio on the fixed income side. So it gives us a good all right.

You know, there's been so much uncertainty in the market. There's been this big push for you know, are we having a growth scare? Is there going to be a slow down in the economy? And what we're really looking at here is this is the opportunity right now for investors to look at asset allocation, how their portfolios look. And that's where fixed income comes into play. When you start seeing all this vola toady in the market, you see most of them the equity side. We haven't seen that level of voltodio on the fixed income side. So it gives us a good all right.

So in terms of specific metrics though, that you keep an eye on, and I understand the low ball that you're saying, or the different volatility we're seeing in the fixed income market. Is it though, FED policy, is it tariff policy, Washington policy?

So in terms of specific metrics though, that you keep an eye on, and I understand the low ball that you're saying, or the different volatility we're seeing in the fixed income market. Is it though, FED policy, is it tariff policy, Washington policy?

What is it?

What is it?

Like?

Like?

Top of mind? You get up in the morning and you're like, tell me what's going on.

Top of mind? You get up in the morning and you're like, tell me what's going on.

It truly is all of the ebove because what ends up happening is you get the tariff headline policy, which is almost on a daily basis, that does spoof the market. It causes a lot of uncertainty in the market. You start seeing the effects in equities. What's really been interesting is the credit markets. If you look at credit spreads, they have been very well behaved, right, so they're not screaming any signs of recession. They're not any sides of a slowdown. That has actually become a nice barometer for other investors' equity investors who look at as long as there's nothing wrong in the credit markets, we should be okay in the equity market.

It truly is all of the ebove because what ends up happening is you get the tariff headline policy, which is almost on a daily basis, that does spoof the market. It causes a lot of uncertainty in the market. You start seeing the effects in equities. What's really been interesting is the credit markets. If you look at credit spreads, they have been very well behaved, right, so they're not screaming any signs of recession. They're not any sides of a slowdown. That has actually become a nice barometer for other investors' equity investors who look at as long as there's nothing wrong in the credit markets, we should be okay in the equity market.

My instant Bloomberg is blowing up with people who want to ask questions about fixed income to you, first one coming, do you anticipate swelling from fixed income and that money then going into equities?

My instant Bloomberg is blowing up with people who want to ask questions about fixed income to you, first one coming, do you anticipate swelling from fixed income and that money then going into equities?

I think right now, what we've seen in the past is the money market funds have done very well when they're getting good rates, and everybody expected that money to go to the equity market, right, that didn't happen.

I think right now, what we've seen in the past is the money market funds have done very well when they're getting good rates, and everybody expected that money to go to the equity market, right, that didn't happen.

It's still money put that money still out there. It's still out there. Do you see more coming from the selling of fixed income or do you see it more as like that cash and money market accounts is going to move, So I.

It's still money put that money still out there. It's still out there. Do you see more coming from the selling of fixed income or do you see it more as like that cash and money market accounts is going to move, So I.

Think it would be the cash of money markets accounts.

Think it would be the cash of money markets accounts.

Where do you think it's going to go.

Where do you think it's going to go.

It'll probably go lockstep into fixed income first because right now you're still getting corporate bonds that are very nice yields. Right now you're getting blue chip companies that are trading at very good income levels. So it makes a lot of sense really because you can sleep at night without worrying about it's just going to blow up my portfolio.

It'll probably go lockstep into fixed income first because right now you're still getting corporate bonds that are very nice yields. Right now you're getting blue chip companies that are trading at very good income levels. So it makes a lot of sense really because you can sleep at night without worrying about it's just going to blow up my portfolio.

So is it corporates that you think see the flows going into more so than sovereign or.

So is it corporates that you think see the flows going into more so than sovereign or.

A lot of investment grade corporate bonds do extremely well in this type of alto environment. What's really been happening? These are really big, liquid, blue chip companies that offer you quite a bit of income with their coupons. So you're not talking how ye, we're not talking hy yo, okay, talk high yield. I'd be very particular about what sectors I want to invest in high yield. It would have to align with the America first, agenda, So you would look at maybe manufacturing or energy being very advantageous in high yield.

A lot of investment grade corporate bonds do extremely well in this type of alto environment. What's really been happening? These are really big, liquid, blue chip companies that offer you quite a bit of income with their coupons. So you're not talking how ye, we're not talking hy yo, okay, talk high yield. I'd be very particular about what sectors I want to invest in high yield. It would have to align with the America first, agenda, So you would look at maybe manufacturing or energy being very advantageous in high yield.

All right, but among the blue chips, where would you got.

All right, but among the blue chips, where would you got.

The blue chicks. You look blue chips, you look at consumer staples, you're looking at energy, you're looking industrials, You're looking at anything that promotes the initiatives of the Trump organ Trump administration about getting growth America first, trying to look at maybe deregulation, which will be very helpful for financials.

The blue chicks. You look blue chips, you look at consumer staples, you're looking at energy, you're looking industrials, You're looking at anything that promotes the initiatives of the Trump organ Trump administration about getting growth America first, trying to look at maybe deregulation, which will be very helpful for financials.

In terms of what your clients care about. Are they more focused on yield or do they care about credit spreads?

In terms of what your clients care about. Are they more focused on yield or do they care about credit spreads?

Our clients care a lot more about yield as long as you're getting yield. I think every investor has gotten really accustomed at being in an environment years ago when you weren't getting any yield and fixed income. Now you're getting yield again, and you want your client the clients really want that yield again. What's very interesting, however, is you can get that yield in very high quality securities now, so you don't really have to go down the credit rating spectrum to achieve that kind of yield.

Our clients care a lot more about yield as long as you're getting yield. I think every investor has gotten really accustomed at being in an environment years ago when you weren't getting any yield and fixed income. Now you're getting yield again, and you want your client the clients really want that yield again. What's very interesting, however, is you can get that yield in very high quality securities now, so you don't really have to go down the credit rating spectrum to achieve that kind of yield.

What's the risk goouls be President of the Chicago Fed telling the Financial Times in an interview, the FED is no longer on the golden path witnessed in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. Fedead now entered a different chapter where there's a lot of dust in the air, and he says he believes burn costs would be a fair bit lower in twelve to eighteen months from now, cautions it may take longer than anticipated for the next cut because of economic uncertainty. How does maybe it being a lot of dust in the air, like you said, there's a lot of things every morning, how does it complicate things and how do you ultimately figure out when to kind of, you know, push the button on an investment.

What's the risk goouls be President of the Chicago Fed telling the Financial Times in an interview, the FED is no longer on the golden path witnessed in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. Fedead now entered a different chapter where there's a lot of dust in the air, and he says he believes burn costs would be a fair bit lower in twelve to eighteen months from now, cautions it may take longer than anticipated for the next cut because of economic uncertainty. How does maybe it being a lot of dust in the air, like you said, there's a lot of things every morning, how does it complicate things and how do you ultimately figure out when to kind of, you know, push the button on an investment.

Right now, the.

Right now, the.

Markets have been generally thinking about the mantra you don't fight the Fed, and right now the FED is in a wait and see approach. They're not looking to cut rates right now. They have the luxury of waiting, so they're deciding right now, we're going to wait for more data. We're going to find out what the fiscal policy is before we start cutting rates. The market, however, is once again trying to dictate terms. If the FED came out last week and said we'll have two rate cuts for twenty twenty five. The market is leaning towards three, so that dislocation is one of the worries, worry signals for us because that has to resolve itself, and that's going to resolve itself, but we go through vold Tody to get there.

Markets have been generally thinking about the mantra you don't fight the Fed, and right now the FED is in a wait and see approach. They're not looking to cut rates right now. They have the luxury of waiting, so they're deciding right now, we're going to wait for more data. We're going to find out what the fiscal policy is before we start cutting rates. The market, however, is once again trying to dictate terms. If the FED came out last week and said we'll have two rate cuts for twenty twenty five. The market is leaning towards three, so that dislocation is one of the worries, worry signals for us because that has to resolve itself, and that's going to resolve itself, but we go through vold Tody to get there.

So what is your outlook on the rate path for the next twelve to eighteen months.

So what is your outlook on the rate path for the next twelve to eighteen months.

I do think that we will have a continued rate cutting cycle, but I think it's going to be later in the later part of this year. We probably will get one rate cut this year, but what will have to line up will have to be a lot more clarity on tariffs. You'll have to see a lot more inflation data that kind of supports the trend towards a two percent goal, and you need to make sure the jobs market stay stable.

I do think that we will have a continued rate cutting cycle, but I think it's going to be later in the later part of this year. We probably will get one rate cut this year, but what will have to line up will have to be a lot more clarity on tariffs. You'll have to see a lot more inflation data that kind of supports the trend towards a two percent goal, and you need to make sure the jobs market stay stable.

Are you concerned that the tariffs are inflationary?

Are you concerned that the tariffs are inflationary?

Yes, I am. Tariffs are generally inflationary. It was interesting to see Fetcher Powell note that in his FMC meeting press conference. So everybody knows that tariffs could be inflation stoking, but he did come out and say that he thinks it's going to be a short lived inflation.

Yes, I am. Tariffs are generally inflationary. It was interesting to see Fetcher Powell note that in his FMC meeting press conference. So everybody knows that tariffs could be inflation stoking, but he did come out and say that he thinks it's going to be a short lived inflation.

I believe the term he used was transitory.

I believe the term he used was transitory.

I didn't want to use Okay, I know, don't say it.

I didn't want to use Okay, I know, don't say it.

Don't say it.

Don't say it.

Do you buy that the president will ultimately get to growth later this year and the idea being tariffs first and then a cut in taxes an easying regulatory oversight later in the year. His Commerce secretor has talked about growth later this year, a dynamic perhaps economy maybe not his word, maybe my word, but just a stronger growth in the United States.

Do you buy that the president will ultimately get to growth later this year and the idea being tariffs first and then a cut in taxes an easying regulatory oversight later in the year. His Commerce secretor has talked about growth later this year, a dynamic perhaps economy maybe not his word, maybe my word, but just a stronger growth in the United States.

Do you believe in that?

Do you believe in that?

It's a very good question. I think there's certain things that need to happen to get to the growth prerogative that he had set for himself that he ran on his campaign for. But I think that's kind of getting muddled right now. I think it's going to take more time to get there than it was earlier anticipated.

It's a very good question. I think there's certain things that need to happen to get to the growth prerogative that he had set for himself that he ran on his campaign for. But I think that's kind of getting muddled right now. I think it's going to take more time to get there than it was earlier anticipated.

Well, what do you think is the catalyst for that? Is it tax cuts? Is it manufacturing coming back to the US. What's the realistic part in your view?

Well, what do you think is the catalyst for that? Is it tax cuts? Is it manufacturing coming back to the US. What's the realistic part in your view?

I really feel like the tax cuts need to happen. I think that was the number one priority when everybody thought that was a number one priority when he was running. That's now become almost a third priority. And with that I think growth gets his step back.

I really feel like the tax cuts need to happen. I think that was the number one priority when everybody thought that was a number one priority when he was running. That's now become almost a third priority. And with that I think growth gets his step back.

Well, last question, it definitely relates to Trump policy. Maybe less federal money going to the states at this point. What does it mean for municipalities states in terms of their fiscal finances?

Well, last question, it definitely relates to Trump policy. Maybe less federal money going to the states at this point. What does it mean for municipalities states in terms of their fiscal finances?

Is it more issuance or is it more trouble.

Is it more issuance or is it more trouble.

I really feel like municipal securities is a great area to invest in fixed income. I think there'll be more issuance if we have infrastructure spending. And these are those kinds of securities that do not get you rich, but they keep you rich.

I really feel like municipal securities is a great area to invest in fixed income. I think there'll be more issuance if we have infrastructure spending. And these are those kinds of securities that do not get you rich, but they keep you rich.

What about ending tax breaks for munis? Is that on your radar?

What about ending tax breaks for munis? Is that on your radar?

It's on my radar. Those kind of conversations creep up every now and then, they don't really go anywhere. There's a big, strong lobby for munichs to not lose that, so I bet shocking they are writing for their conversation for radio.

It's on my radar. Those kind of conversations creep up every now and then, they don't really go anywhere. There's a big, strong lobby for munichs to not lose that, so I bet shocking they are writing for their conversation for radio.

People love their tax remmunis. Just ask some of the folks around here. All right, we're going to leave it.

People love their tax remmunis. Just ask some of the folks around here. All right, we're going to leave it.

There, Razeeve, thank you so much.

There, Razeeve, thank you so much.

Ajeeb Sharma, Managing director of Fixed Income Investments, are at Key Private Bank, joining us here in studio.

Ajeeb Sharma, Managing director of Fixed Income Investments, are at Key Private Bank, joining us here in studio.

This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car Play and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. This sounds like a big, big, big story.

This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car Play and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. This sounds like a big, big, big story.

Yeah, Bailey lipschultzen'strem Gafari out with some details. When it comes to open AI's finances, the company expects to more than triple its revenue this year to twelve point seven billion dollars.

Yeah, Bailey lipschultzen'strem Gafari out with some details. When it comes to open AI's finances, the company expects to more than triple its revenue this year to twelve point seven billion dollars.

Just a lot.

Just a lot.

I'm not paying for it, but I use it.

I'm not paying for it, but I use it.

No, I'm not either. But there is a paid version.

No, I'm not either. But there is a paid version.

Paid version twenty bucks a month. There's only two hundred both.

Paid version twenty bucks a month. There's only two hundred both.

But there's a lot of companies right that are talking.

But there's a lot of companies right that are talking.

Yeah, yeah, this is corner A person familiar with the matter. The company generated three point seven billion dollars in annual revenue last year, and they expect revenue to continue growing out a fast club, more than doubling next year to twenty nine point four billion dollars. Curious what Ruth fox Blader has to say about all this. She's founder of managing partner at Fox Capital. It's an early stage VC firm. That she launched last year. She joins us from France. Ruth, good to have you with us. Have you invested in any of these LM companies like Athropic open AI.

Yeah, yeah, this is corner A person familiar with the matter. The company generated three point seven billion dollars in annual revenue last year, and they expect revenue to continue growing out a fast club, more than doubling next year to twenty nine point four billion dollars. Curious what Ruth fox Blader has to say about all this. She's founder of managing partner at Fox Capital. It's an early stage VC firm. That she launched last year. She joins us from France. Ruth, good to have you with us. Have you invested in any of these LM companies like Athropic open AI.

You know, I haven't, and that's partly because the fund that I run is not a multi billion dollar platform. I think that if you're getting involved with actually building large language models, you really need to be able and willing to deploy massive amounts of venture capital into these projects. And as we've seen, you know, there are some really big incumbent tech players with enormous balance sheets who are also investing in these projects. Right but certainly, pretty much every startup in my portfolio is moving at systems to run in some way on these lms, and there are an enormous amount of new projects that are coming to the fore and pretty much every industry which will be based on these technologies.

You know, I haven't, and that's partly because the fund that I run is not a multi billion dollar platform. I think that if you're getting involved with actually building large language models, you really need to be able and willing to deploy massive amounts of venture capital into these projects. And as we've seen, you know, there are some really big incumbent tech players with enormous balance sheets who are also investing in these projects. Right but certainly, pretty much every startup in my portfolio is moving at systems to run in some way on these lms, and there are an enormous amount of new projects that are coming to the fore and pretty much every industry which will be based on these technologies.

Does it feel like a disadvantage though, to not have the dry powder to be able to invest in some of these rounds or do you see opportunity bigger, earlier and smaller.

Does it feel like a disadvantage though, to not have the dry powder to be able to invest in some of these rounds or do you see opportunity bigger, earlier and smaller.

That's amazing is that what these technologies are doing is really offering a new platform for reshaping the entire economy and probably, you know, reshaping our society if we're honest about it. So the enabling technologies and that sort of critical infrastructure needs to be built, and sometimes it'll be built by you know, massive government investment, big technology companies with big balance sheets investing the biggest VC funds in the world. But there is so much and just such an enormous it's it's hard to describe how much opportunity there will be to use these technologies to really reshape every industry imaginable. And so there's more than enough opportunity for investors of all sizes. We certainly have dry powder we're actively investing, but not in the models themselves.

That's amazing is that what these technologies are doing is really offering a new platform for reshaping the entire economy and probably, you know, reshaping our society if we're honest about it. So the enabling technologies and that sort of critical infrastructure needs to be built, and sometimes it'll be built by you know, massive government investment, big technology companies with big balance sheets investing the biggest VC funds in the world. But there is so much and just such an enormous it's it's hard to describe how much opportunity there will be to use these technologies to really reshape every industry imaginable. And so there's more than enough opportunity for investors of all sizes. We certainly have dry powder we're actively investing, but not in the models themselves.

Well, let's talk about some of the areas that either coming across the pitches, coming across your desk or in your inbox that are you know, connected to AI artificial intelligence.

Well, let's talk about some of the areas that either coming across the pitches, coming across your desk or in your inbox that are you know, connected to AI artificial intelligence.

Walk us through ruths, some of the things.

Walk us through ruths, some of the things.

That are coming across that you are like, Wow, this is going to be potentially a significant trend maybe in the years to come.

That are coming across that you are like, Wow, this is going to be potentially a significant trend maybe in the years to come.

Yeah, we've seen a lot of early activity and early integration of artificial intelligence into the places where large language models really have a lot to say, and that's you know, things to do with language. So we're seeing a lot of activity in the legal tech area. A lot of companies are deploying large language models actively to do programming. So it's no surprise that the early adopters of technology would be technologists. And we're seeing just this tremendous ability to build companies that are much smaller. So a lot of the startups, even the early stage businesses that I'm seeing, it's just shocking how the size of company that you need to have from a full time employee perspective to get to critical revenue is dramatically smaller than it was even a couple.

Yeah, we've seen a lot of early activity and early integration of artificial intelligence into the places where large language models really have a lot to say, and that's you know, things to do with language. So we're seeing a lot of activity in the legal tech area. A lot of companies are deploying large language models actively to do programming. So it's no surprise that the early adopters of technology would be technologists. And we're seeing just this tremendous ability to build companies that are much smaller. So a lot of the startups, even the early stage businesses that I'm seeing, it's just shocking how the size of company that you need to have from a full time employee perspective to get to critical revenue is dramatically smaller than it was even a couple.

Of years ago.

Of years ago.

How's the fundraising environment right now? From the perspective of a venture capitalist? Is it difficult out there to raise.

How's the fundraising environment right now? From the perspective of a venture capitalist? Is it difficult out there to raise.

Money so as a fund or as a startup?

Money so as a fund or as a startup?

As a fund.

As a fund.

The environment I'm not currently raising capital, but you know, I have lots of friends, and you know.

The environment I'm not currently raising capital, but you know, I have lots of friends, and you know.

The environment venture capitalists always raising capital.

The environment venture capitalists always raising capital.

Yes, and actually it would be probably indiscreet to, you know, acknowledge anything around actual capital raises. But I am, you know, not as actively in market as I've been in the past, and we'll be in the future. So what I'd say is you know, there there are big platforms, as I said, which are really well known, which really have no difficulty raising capital. Actually raising capital is a fund is very similar to the experience of raising capital as a startup. Venture is a game of exceptions and there are absolutely no rules. So you know, we've talked about big dips in startup financing in particular sectors. You know, in twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, we'll see what happens this year, but then we'll also see these absolutely huge mega rounds. There's there's there tends to be enormous bifurcation in the venture market, and you know, some people have it really easy and some people find it to be a grind, even in the most excessive of capital environments. Right now, there has been I think a little bit of an overhang from the venture capital bubble that we saw during COVID zero interest rate moments when people were kind of running into the private markets and really there was quite a lot of capital running into all markets. And there's been a slight correction, but I think that there's still you know, there's still capital out there for interesting projects.

Yes, and actually it would be probably indiscreet to, you know, acknowledge anything around actual capital raises. But I am, you know, not as actively in market as I've been in the past, and we'll be in the future. So what I'd say is you know, there there are big platforms, as I said, which are really well known, which really have no difficulty raising capital. Actually raising capital is a fund is very similar to the experience of raising capital as a startup. Venture is a game of exceptions and there are absolutely no rules. So you know, we've talked about big dips in startup financing in particular sectors. You know, in twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, we'll see what happens this year, but then we'll also see these absolutely huge mega rounds. There's there's there tends to be enormous bifurcation in the venture market, and you know, some people have it really easy and some people find it to be a grind, even in the most excessive of capital environments. Right now, there has been I think a little bit of an overhang from the venture capital bubble that we saw during COVID zero interest rate moments when people were kind of running into the private markets and really there was quite a lot of capital running into all markets. And there's been a slight correction, but I think that there's still you know, there's still capital out there for interesting projects.

Ruth.

Ruth.

What you know, I know, when.

What you know, I know, when.

You share notes and thoughts with our producer Paul Brennan. You know, part of the conversation, I think we've touched upon it, but this idea of a generational technology revolution with artificial intelligence, what exactly does that mean? What's the generational generational technology revolution you anticipate is coming our way as a result of AI, which has been around for a long time. But you know, obviously we're talking about generative AI, large language models, things that could really potentially already are and even more so.

You share notes and thoughts with our producer Paul Brennan. You know, part of the conversation, I think we've touched upon it, but this idea of a generational technology revolution with artificial intelligence, what exactly does that mean? What's the generational generational technology revolution you anticipate is coming our way as a result of AI, which has been around for a long time. But you know, obviously we're talking about generative AI, large language models, things that could really potentially already are and even more so.

Change kind of how we do things in the future.

Change kind of how we do things in the future.

Yeah, we're what.

Yeah, we're what.

We're seeing is something really probably on the scale of the commercial Internet itself. So the Internet was around for a long time and then you know, people started using it and it just had this enormous impact on the way people do everything, the way they think, the way they research, the way they read, the way they shop, the way they interact with each other. And you know, we saw kind of the mobile replatforming and a lot of those same sort of large shifts happening and moving onto mobile here. I think that what we're seeing is not only the prospect of really changing unit costs. So what we were talking about previously where you can just do a lot with fewer human beings organization, but that you know, potential to impact the revenue profile of companies. So definitely something that will change, certainly how we value businesses and maybe the value that businesses are able to create. But it's also a social you know, it's a big social shift. And it's not just like, oh, are people using Perplexity instead of Google to search? It's really where are people getting information? And how are they comfortable communicating with machines? And I really see this not only amongst kind of people who are in the tech world, but even you know, folks and other parts of society who are actually asking chat GPT for personal advice and you know things that were inconceivable really like Revenge of the Nerds, like having a relationship with a robot.

We're seeing is something really probably on the scale of the commercial Internet itself. So the Internet was around for a long time and then you know, people started using it and it just had this enormous impact on the way people do everything, the way they think, the way they research, the way they read, the way they shop, the way they interact with each other. And you know, we saw kind of the mobile replatforming and a lot of those same sort of large shifts happening and moving onto mobile here. I think that what we're seeing is not only the prospect of really changing unit costs. So what we were talking about previously where you can just do a lot with fewer human beings organization, but that you know, potential to impact the revenue profile of companies. So definitely something that will change, certainly how we value businesses and maybe the value that businesses are able to create. But it's also a social you know, it's a big social shift. And it's not just like, oh, are people using Perplexity instead of Google to search? It's really where are people getting information? And how are they comfortable communicating with machines? And I really see this not only amongst kind of people who are in the tech world, but even you know, folks and other parts of society who are actually asking chat GPT for personal advice and you know things that were inconceivable really like Revenge of the Nerds, like having a relationship with a robot.

But you know, well you said no judgment, I said, not great. I know.

But you know, well you said no judgment, I said, not great. I know.

Well I have to tell you.

Well I have to tell you.

You know, we were talking about you coming on in the newsroom and we were just talking as every day it feels like we have conversations around our I've got to yeah, cc H our producer we were talking with, and we kind of came to like, we really want to ask you this question. We're just going to go for it. I'm going to just go for it. How do we avoid creating a future generation of idiots or at least individuals who can't write and think if we're constantly going now and I understand having played with chat chipe, do you have to think and like how to get like different question?

You know, we were talking about you coming on in the newsroom and we were just talking as every day it feels like we have conversations around our I've got to yeah, cc H our producer we were talking with, and we kind of came to like, we really want to ask you this question. We're just going to go for it. I'm going to just go for it. How do we avoid creating a future generation of idiots or at least individuals who can't write and think if we're constantly going now and I understand having played with chat chipe, do you have to think and like how to get like different question?

You mean, like okay, college students Carol using it to write term papers and stuff.

You mean, like okay, college students Carol using it to write term papers and stuff.

Exactly like people who don't write or at least get something started with something, so you know, with a chat device or something like what does that mean?

Exactly like people who don't write or at least get something started with something, so you know, with a chat device or something like what does that mean?

What does that looks like?

What does that looks like?

I can't you know, I can't say that that. I think it's a stupid question. And I think this is what what you know, when I think about this technology, it's not only so impactful on the stock market, and you know, in terms of uh sort of geeky tech innovation, I really do think that it is going to massively have a huge social impact. And you know, even when we think about are we going to lose skills that we consider sort of near and dear to our hearts, like you know, writing and sort of thinking in the written word and communicating or even just doing work unassisted without sort of the the the kind of long arc of history in our in our computer that we can kind of tap into at a moment's notice. And there are those same conversations happening when the commercial internet came around, and you know, the kind of dumbing down and the social crutch. But I think that these are questions that are really critical to ask. And you know, you can take the point of view that technology is neutral and it's what we do with it, but we know that these new technologies dramatically shape our behaviors. And there have been enormous numbers of studies that have been done about the impact of social media on youth or you know, regarding impression, and I see it with my own kids, just you know, the behavioral habits and the behavioral changes that have happened, and you know, just a couple of generations are really quite crazy. And so there will be people who use these technologies to get even smarter and to do even more interesting things. But I think that this is a really big question, is what are we going to do if we end up creating technology which is so powerful that fewer people need employment in a world where there are you know, more people every year, and how are we going to really hold our critical values or continue to transmit values that we consider critical. And I'm sure that some of those values will go away. I mean, I think this is we're on the cusp of a really big social change too.

I can't you know, I can't say that that. I think it's a stupid question. And I think this is what what you know, when I think about this technology, it's not only so impactful on the stock market, and you know, in terms of uh sort of geeky tech innovation, I really do think that it is going to massively have a huge social impact. And you know, even when we think about are we going to lose skills that we consider sort of near and dear to our hearts, like you know, writing and sort of thinking in the written word and communicating or even just doing work unassisted without sort of the the the kind of long arc of history in our in our computer that we can kind of tap into at a moment's notice. And there are those same conversations happening when the commercial internet came around, and you know, the kind of dumbing down and the social crutch. But I think that these are questions that are really critical to ask. And you know, you can take the point of view that technology is neutral and it's what we do with it, but we know that these new technologies dramatically shape our behaviors. And there have been enormous numbers of studies that have been done about the impact of social media on youth or you know, regarding impression, and I see it with my own kids, just you know, the behavioral habits and the behavioral changes that have happened, and you know, just a couple of generations are really quite crazy. And so there will be people who use these technologies to get even smarter and to do even more interesting things. But I think that this is a really big question, is what are we going to do if we end up creating technology which is so powerful that fewer people need employment in a world where there are you know, more people every year, and how are we going to really hold our critical values or continue to transmit values that we consider critical. And I'm sure that some of those values will go away. I mean, I think this is we're on the cusp of a really big social change too.

Yeah, it's a tricky territory, I think, especially as a parent in thinking about this technology for kids. Ruth the Fox at Blader, founder and managing partner at Fox Capital, the early stage VC firm she launched it last year. I've been playing a little bit with Lily the dual lingo chat Bob and well, my son loves it and he's six, and like, I don't want him to think that, like this is real life. It's pretty cool, though, it is pretty cool.

Yeah, it's a tricky territory, I think, especially as a parent in thinking about this technology for kids. Ruth the Fox at Blader, founder and managing partner at Fox Capital, the early stage VC firm she launched it last year. I've been playing a little bit with Lily the dual lingo chat Bob and well, my son loves it and he's six, and like, I don't want him to think that, like this is real life. It's pretty cool, though, it is pretty cool.

I yeah, I don't know. Time will tell, right, this is Bloomberg Business Week Daily.

I yeah, I don't know. Time will tell, right, this is Bloomberg Business Week Daily.

Rubmcle I'll bet you let me drive.

Rubmcle I'll bet you let me drive.

Oh no, no, no no, this is not a twenty's going.

Oh no, no, no no, this is not a twenty's going.

To drive, honey, please, I'll do the gravels.

To drive, honey, please, I'll do the gravels.

Let's wait, I want to drive.

Let's wait, I want to drive.

It's a good question.

It's a good question.

This is the drive to the.

This is the drive to the.

Clothes plums for me.

Clothes plums for me.

I think.

I think.

Well.

Well.

By John and Don on Bloomberg Radio.

By John and Don on Bloomberg Radio.

All right, everybody, we are just about eighteen minutes away from the closing bell on this Wednesday, Carol Master, along with Tim Stanwick, life here in our Bloomberg Interactor Broker studio here on Bloomberg Business Week Daily. H As Charlie just mentioned, we are kind of bouncing around our loads of the session. So down about seventy one points on the S and P five hundred, down more than a point full percentage point, about one and a quarter percent to be Zach and down Tim just about two percent on the nasdaque. We've been talking about some of these big megacap tech names putting some pressure once again. But I think it's safe to say we're taking our cues constantly out of Washington concerns about more tariffs. What it means, what it means specifically.

All right, everybody, we are just about eighteen minutes away from the closing bell on this Wednesday, Carol Master, along with Tim Stanwick, life here in our Bloomberg Interactor Broker studio here on Bloomberg Business Week Daily. H As Charlie just mentioned, we are kind of bouncing around our loads of the session. So down about seventy one points on the S and P five hundred, down more than a point full percentage point, about one and a quarter percent to be Zach and down Tim just about two percent on the nasdaque. We've been talking about some of these big megacap tech names putting some pressure once again. But I think it's safe to say we're taking our cues constantly out of Washington concerns about more tariffs. What it means, what it means specifically.

Well, let's see what Sevesty Bilofis has to say. She's CEO at Golvest Advisory. She's back with us. They've got about six hundred million dollars in assets under management, She joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. How are you positioning portfolios right now? Are you? Are you overweight cash because of uncertainty? What's going on?

Well, let's see what Sevesty Bilofis has to say. She's CEO at Golvest Advisory. She's back with us. They've got about six hundred million dollars in assets under management, She joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. How are you positioning portfolios right now? Are you? Are you overweight cash because of uncertainty? What's going on?

Okay, so we're not overweight cash.

Okay, so we're not overweight cash.

But for people that have cash.

But for people that have cash.

On the sidelines, new clients that have come in and they've had a liquidity event and they have cash, we are being slow. Our normal build out process would be ten to twelve weeks. We're pausing on that. We're looking at five to six months in terms of deployment. So we're not rushing with cash right now.

On the sidelines, new clients that have come in and they've had a liquidity event and they have cash, we are being slow. Our normal build out process would be ten to twelve weeks. We're pausing on that. We're looking at five to six months in terms of deployment. So we're not rushing with cash right now.

But for people so leaving it in lee hash.

But for people so leaving it in lee hash.

Well, okay, so giving it in cash or T bills or going into things like private credit which have a lower volatility, or going into some structured notes alternative investments, which we like and we can talk about, but not rushing into equity. So the equities part of the portfolio taking a lot longer to deploy that cast.

Well, okay, so giving it in cash or T bills or going into things like private credit which have a lower volatility, or going into some structured notes alternative investments, which we like and we can talk about, but not rushing into equity. So the equities part of the portfolio taking a lot longer to deploy that cast.

So the private credit part of the portfolio is something you would have done anyway, and you're like, it doesn't matter because we just talked about a story about how the private equity guys really want to tap into the four oh one K plans. But the thinking is it's going to sit there for several years, so it's okay to put it to work now.

So the private credit part of the portfolio is something you would have done anyway, and you're like, it doesn't matter because we just talked about a story about how the private equity guys really want to tap into the four oh one K plans. But the thinking is it's going to sit there for several years, so it's okay to put it to work now.

Absolutely the private credit. A couple of things on the private credit lower volatility and we do think even with all of this noise and uncertainty and a slow down that we think is coming, we don't think it will be a hard landing, severe recession that we end up seeing. And so in that environment where default rates and private credit are not expected to be high, I like private credit. It's a slow and any clip that we end up getting. So that's one thing. But you bring up a very good point with in private markets, investors have a long term time horizon, for one case being one example. But even with taxable dollars, a lot of our investors have a long term time horizon. They aren't planning on touching that cash for at least ten to fifteen years out. For some part of the portfolio time, having private credit and private equity is certainly appropriate.

Absolutely the private credit. A couple of things on the private credit lower volatility and we do think even with all of this noise and uncertainty and a slow down that we think is coming, we don't think it will be a hard landing, severe recession that we end up seeing. And so in that environment where default rates and private credit are not expected to be high, I like private credit. It's a slow and any clip that we end up getting. So that's one thing. But you bring up a very good point with in private markets, investors have a long term time horizon, for one case being one example. But even with taxable dollars, a lot of our investors have a long term time horizon. They aren't planning on touching that cash for at least ten to fifteen years out. For some part of the portfolio time, having private credit and private equity is certainly appropriate.

Okay, that's a small part of the portfolio for most people. What's typical right now in terms of asset allocation, because there's been a lot of talk this year of concerns around this idea of American exceptionalism and then also our performance in Europe.

Okay, that's a small part of the portfolio for most people. What's typical right now in terms of asset allocation, because there's been a lot of talk this year of concerns around this idea of American exceptionalism and then also our performance in Europe.

Yes, yes, so we are looking at we've previously had an underweight to equities and it's to excuse me, let me correct that European equities, and so we've been neutral weight equities and more of our portfolios invested in US equities, and that's been the case for a long time.

Yes, yes, so we are looking at we've previously had an underweight to equities and it's to excuse me, let me correct that European equities, and so we've been neutral weight equities and more of our portfolios invested in US equities, and that's been the case for a long time.

So certainly this year you've seen a.

So certainly this year you've seen a.

Versu all of that, and European equities do look more attractive, But we are not overweighting European equities.

Versu all of that, and European equities do look more attractive, But we are not overweighting European equities.

Why is why we were that was stereo.

Why is why we were that was stereo.

Its exactly a couple of things.

Its exactly a couple of things.

I think the reasons why so European equities have had low relative valuations compared to US for a long time. They've had lower valuations for a reason. Reasons why we didn't prefer European equities.

I think the reasons why so European equities have had low relative valuations compared to US for a long time. They've had lower valuations for a reason. Reasons why we didn't prefer European equities.

Six months ago.

Six months ago.

Are still there things around demographics, for example, or things like regulation being more onerous in Europe versus in the US.

Are still there things around demographics, for example, or things like regulation being more onerous in Europe versus in the US.

State like Germany said about the Spans, we love that.

State like Germany said about the Spans, we love that.

We love that, like Germany, Germany and Europe overall. I do think that we'll see more spending. There's been this aha moment where all of a sudden, Europe collectively realizes we need to spend more, and so I do think that will happen. But at the same time, and I do want exposure, and we are adding to our under weight that we had in European equities. We are adding to it, but I still don't think that European equities are going to outperform the US equities over the long run.

We love that, like Germany, Germany and Europe overall. I do think that we'll see more spending. There's been this aha moment where all of a sudden, Europe collectively realizes we need to spend more, and so I do think that will happen. But at the same time, and I do want exposure, and we are adding to our under weight that we had in European equities. We are adding to it, but I still don't think that European equities are going to outperform the US equities over the long run.

Now that's it.

Now that's it.

You know, at the game, I'm table, you're not all in, not all in. So when you say you add in, I always been curious about percentages, right, like how much? So how much is typical for Europe?

You know, at the game, I'm table, you're not all in, not all in. So when you say you add in, I always been curious about percentages, right, like how much? So how much is typical for Europe?

And have you done?

And have you done?

Okay?

Okay?

So we so typically the benchmark waiting for European equities or international developed equities, I should say, is about thirty percent. So if we think of a one hundred percent equity portfolio, about thirty percent is the benchmark weight towards Europe. We've been less than ten percent in our one hundred percent equity waiting. We're closer now to about eight percent in Europe in international development. So we're still underweight, but we've increased our equity allocations. Equities, yes, and the one hundred percent yes, so some in private markets, a lot in public markets, but the other area we like somewhere. Yes, in private markets.

So we so typically the benchmark waiting for European equities or international developed equities, I should say, is about thirty percent. So if we think of a one hundred percent equity portfolio, about thirty percent is the benchmark weight towards Europe. We've been less than ten percent in our one hundred percent equity waiting. We're closer now to about eight percent in Europe in international development. So we're still underweight, but we've increased our equity allocations. Equities, yes, and the one hundred percent yes, so some in private markets, a lot in public markets, but the other area we like somewhere. Yes, in private markets.

Equities U S equaries have worked really well for the last dozen years.

Equities U S equaries have worked really well for the last dozen years.

They have. They haven't especially tech. But what we're seeing now.

They have. They haven't especially tech. But what we're seeing now.

And this is also another area that we're investing in, So market s and P is down year to date, and it's certainly like since the peak Feb nineteen or so it's been, it's down. If you look at dividend stocks though for example, they're actually up. So there are plenty of areas for sectors in the US markets that there's still opportunity there and I feel more comfortable investing in.

And this is also another area that we're investing in, So market s and P is down year to date, and it's certainly like since the peak Feb nineteen or so it's been, it's down. If you look at dividend stocks though for example, they're actually up. So there are plenty of areas for sectors in the US markets that there's still opportunity there and I feel more comfortable investing in.

So you're all in on the US US equities.

So you're all in on the US US equities.

It's interesting, right, So the idea of like, you know, we've had a lot of conversations about American exceptionalism. Do you think that ultimately policies out of Washington will settle down.

It's interesting, right, So the idea of like, you know, we've had a lot of conversations about American exceptionalism. Do you think that ultimately policies out of Washington will settle down.

I think we've been hit with a lot of bad news first in terms of you know, when the President got elected, there was a lot of talk of and you saw an increase in performance because of talk on deregulation, pro growth, tax cuts that will be extended. We've started now with we saw a lot of policy and shake ups and alliances, and I think we've started with some bad news, so tariff certainly being one of them, because they have caused a lot of this uncertainty, and it will continue until we have things figured out. But I'm excited to see about the tax cuts that get extended, and maybe there's more of them. There's more, there's more that will come in the second half of the year that I think will be more positive. Once the uncertainty around tariffs goes away.

I think we've been hit with a lot of bad news first in terms of you know, when the President got elected, there was a lot of talk of and you saw an increase in performance because of talk on deregulation, pro growth, tax cuts that will be extended. We've started now with we saw a lot of policy and shake ups and alliances, and I think we've started with some bad news, so tariff certainly being one of them, because they have caused a lot of this uncertainty, and it will continue until we have things figured out. But I'm excited to see about the tax cuts that get extended, and maybe there's more of them. There's more, there's more that will come in the second half of the year that I think will be more positive. Once the uncertainty around tariffs goes away.

We're basically exactly where we were election day, yes, right now, five hundred yes.

We're basically exactly where we were election day, yes, right now, five hundred yes.

So it was a lot of enthusiasm of what will happen. The agenda comes out, it's about you know, immigration and deportation, and then about the tariffs, and we don't know from one day to the next what to focus on. You know, we were talking about Liberation day April second, and all of a sudden, it's auto tariffs today. So once this calms down, there's more more clarity around the tariffs, we can move forward and talk about the more exciting pro growth parts that will help the US market.