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3 and Out - TNF Reaction, Bye Bye Bill, Sean McDermott apologizes

Published Dec 8, 2023, 11:01 AM

John reacts to the Patriots win over the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, he dives into the future of Mike Tomlin as the Steelers Head Coach after losing to some of the worst teams in the NFL, will the Patriots and Bill Belichick part ways at the end of the season, Sean McDermott apologizes for comments that he made about 9/11 and how it could affect his future in Buffalo, and the Guinness Bold Take of The Week. 

Lastly, John is joined by Stuckey from The Action Network giving you this weekends best bets.

TNF Reaction - 4:53

Bill Belichick's future - 12:20

Sean McDermott apologizes - 20:40

The Jags get robbed - 24:49

Stuckey - 37:15

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Call eighty eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. On behalf of Bootyal Casino in resort Kansas must be twenty one or older in eligible states, but ages vary by jurisdiction. See DraftKings dot com slash sportsbook for details and state specific responsible gambling resources, eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issueits terms at sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com slash football terms. What is going on? The New England Patriots and William Belichick take down the Pittsburgh Steelers twenty one to eighteen. It feels like Bill in New England has been beating Pittsburgh for twenty plus years, even at two and ten. I was at at a restaurant tonight with my girlfriend. She looked up. She said, the New England Patriots are two to ten. I'm like, yes, Maria. Their defense is really good, but their offense is putrid. But they score twenty one points they win the game. We will dive into Mike Tomlin. We will dive in to Belichick and the New England Patriots and talk about some other stuff that we saw today. Sean McDermott was a pepper today over I guess. An article came out from TYG Dunn on the Sean McDermott era and I guess an instant an instance that happened in twenty nineteen about nine to eleven, which it's behind a paywall. Wasn't able to read the article, but I do think it's fascinating. With the Buffalo bills these next couple of weeks, is the guy coaching for his job the Jags were robbed of twenty two million dollars. My main takeaway is, God, the NFL is flushing cash if it takes them years to find out that they're missing twenty two million dollars. And the bold take of the week, which I'm excited. But before we dive into that, all subscribe to the YouTube channel, Appreciate everyone that has subscribe to the podcast three and out Spotify, Apple, iTunes, same thing. Make sure you subscribe, Tell all your friends, tell all your enemies, Appreciate everyone that has. And the Volume dot com. The Volume dot com we have merch. I'm rocking an hat right now, and before we dive into some football stuff, here's what I need to do. Next week. I'm going to a concert for my girlfriend's birthday. And I'm doing it because I have friends, I have partners, and I have the best ticketing app I think in America, and it's called the Game Time. You download the game Time app, you search tickets football games, basketball games, hockey games, concerts, comedy shows, any event you want to go to. Download the game Time app and search and when you find it, use the promo code John. Promo code John John, John Ram Jon. He's at liv I'm John Middlecoff John, and I'm I'm here. Download the game Time out promo co John twenty dollars off and buy yourself a pair of tickets Holiday season, give a gift and enjoy yourself and do it on us. Promo co John A lot of angles. You go this game? Really, I mean it's funny. I mean the Patriots were kicking their ass early. The Steelers came roman back, and the only thing I could think of, really the entire game was these two coaches. And I read an article today about Belichick about the trading trading for him. What could they get? What are the possibilities this offseason? And I've been saying forever Bill Belichick is not going to be the coach of the New England Patriots next year, not because he doesn't know what he's doing. He's lost three games this year where his team has held the opponent ten points or less, first time that's happened since nineteen nineteen thirty eight. Honestly, I didn't know football really existed before, like nineteen sixty. I don't claim to be a historian here, but it shows you Bill Belichick really knows what he's doing. He's an excellent defensive coordinator. He's very dependent on his offensive coordinator, and he's very dependent on a quarterback, which he had Brady for two decades, and he had Josh McDaniels for the majority of it, and they kicked the shit out of basically everybody. And listen, I like Alex Smith a lot. I actually have a lot of respect for Alex Smith because when I was in college, the forty nine ers were the equivalent of who's the worst team in the league right now, the Carolina Panthers. I mean, there were a lot of bad teams, but they were as bad as anybody. They had bad ownership, they had bad coaching, they had bad players, They just had a bad organizational philosophy. They were a joke, and Alex Smith somehow just survived. He didn't play well, it wasn't all his fault. Sometimes you get kind of caught in the swamp of dysfunction. When Alex said the other day that they benefited a lot from the division, he wasn't wrong. The division for the most part, the Dolphins were awful, the Jets were awful, and the Bills were putrid. The Jets had a couple of years with Rex and the Dolphins had like one year with Tony Soprano and the Wildcat. But for the most part it was an embarrassment. He was right, But they also any team they played that mattered they beat, specifically the Pittsburgh Steelers for decades, and Bill Belichick still knows what he's doing defensively when I watched the Steelers, and we'll get to Bill in a minute, like cause I don't think this changes much. I've been saying this for a while. I think it was two weeks ago. They ended up beating the Bengals, and it actually aged pretty well because Jake Browning had I don't know the game of his life on Monday Night football, but they were losing the game for a minute and I thought, is this it for Tomlin. They ended up winning the game, and I thought, well, they were seven and three, and then he looked at their schedule. They had four games, and They're like, they're a lock to win. I'm like, they're gonna be eleven and three, and people are gonna go, how in the world does a team with Kenny Pickett as their quarterback, a team that sucks on offense gonna go eleven and three and be in position to like compete for the number one seed. Let alone they're I was like, what, well, they're not because they lost to the Cardinals and they lost to the Patriots, who I did the math coming into the game were four and twenty. Mike Tomlin at home at home, just lost to two teams in December when his team was seven and three, and then seven and four to two teams who were combined four and twenty. So listen, I think Mike Tomlin's good at his job, not counting this season's not going great. But let me rephrase that. I think Mike Tomlin would have a lot of people who would be very interested in making him the head coach. If Mike Tomlin was fired, he would immediately a lot like Bill have a job. Before you could blink, he would become a head coach instantly. I do think it's over in Pittsburgh, like it's time for a change. And I threw it out on social media and a lot of people are like, you think the Rooneys. The Rooneys are never firing Tomlin. For a long time, I always supported it. You can't have a time when you have a team that lose back to back games in Thanksgiving in early December to two teams who are fucking terrible. You're allowed to lose the Ravens, You're allowed to lose the forty nine ers. You're allowed to lose the good teams in big spots. It's football. You can't lose the Cardinals and the Patriots in a four day span and still be taking seriously when they were already major question marks. You haven't won a playoff game in forever. And again, I'm a Mike Tomlin fan. I do think, and I've been saying this for a while. I was in Philadelphia when Andy Reid fired or was fired by Jeffrey Leary, and it was just time now. It was easier because he had a four and twelve season. But like your shelf life as a head coach is not infinite. It doesn't last forever. There comes a point in time where it's just we need change, We need depress the reset button. Whether you are Bill Belichick, whether you are Phil Jackson, whether you are Joe Tory. I saw it with Bruce Bochie and San Francisco. I'm talking about guys who have won to combine like twenty five championships, and they move on and they go to new places. It's healthy. I've changed jobs. I'm sure many people listening have change jobs. It is. It's like a reset on your life in a good way. And I watched Mike Tomlin and listen, I respect the shit out of this guy. And I listened to a couple podcasts with him coming into the season, and one thing he said is he was very very excited to kind of prove his worth with a new quarterback, and prove his worth, you know, with the non like Hall of Fame guy, and kind of start fresh. I said it from the jump when they draft to Kenny Pickett, it was never gonna work. And then the moment he got injured. Mitch Trubisky sucks, he really does. And there are certain backup quarterbacks where you can win some games, and then there are guys like Trubisky where I don't care how good your team is. I don't care if JJ Watt or excuse me, TJ Watt get you ten sacks a game, or you know, Minke of Fitzpatrick picks off a couple of picks. I don't care. You're gonna lose way more than you're gonna win. And the moment you have to start this guy, and it's not their choice because they're starting quarterbacks up in the booth. You know, with the coordinators, you're screwed now who I don't know who was behind giving him a second contract extension with the Pittsburgh Steelers. But that's beside the point. Like this team needs new blood, This franchise needs new blood. And I actually think Mike tom blind benefit a lot from just being like the coach of the Chargers next year, the coach of the Bears next year, the coach of the Washington Commanders next year. I think it'd be your classic win win. Look at the Eagles. They fired Andy Reid, he went to the Chiefs. He's had a Hall of Fame career as the Chiefs coach alone. They've gone on to win a Super Bowl with Doug get to another one with Sirianni like, sometimes just going your separate ways in a divorce professionally is the healthiest thing for every party. And I've been watching the Steelers and I thought this a couple of weeks ago. With the Bengals, I've thought it way more of these last two weeks. It's over, where is this team going? Even if somehow they still make the playoffs? What is gonna happen? News flash, nothing, Nothing is gonna happen. They're not gonna win a game. They're going nowhere. I think the easiest thing to do in football is like, well, how do we upgrade? And I got this the other day in a mailbag question Well, because this guy basically was saying that Pete Carroll is one of the most overrated coaches in the NFL over the last couple of years, when you know their defense is terrible. He's a defensive head coach. They've invested all this money, and it's so easy for everyone in the outside to go, well, how are you gonna upgrade over Pete Carroll? How are you gonna do better? Well, if you always have that mindset, how are you ever gonna make any progress? And I think the Steelers really hang their hat on. Well, we've had three coaches in a seventy five years. Okay, that's good. Uh and over a couple of them. You want a bunch of super Bowls. But the last I checked, you guys haven't won Dick in a long time. So how about we make a change. Not because we think Mike Tomlin sucks. Jeffrey Leary didn't think Andy Reid sucks. He just knew it was time. And I think when you watch the Pittsburgh Steelers, and I'm someone that picked them to not only win the division, but compete with the Chiefs to win the conference. I had so much belief in this team in the preseason and believe the hype and Kenny Pickett and I feel like an idiot and I watch him, especially these last two weeks, I'm like, it's over cut the cord. I don't mean fire him now, but at the end of the season, like go your separate ways, He'll immediately get another job and go get another coach, because guess what your job offer would immediately be. The Chargers, if they were willing to pay anything, would be number one because they have justin Herbert right that job immediately would be sweet just because of the quarterback. But there is no job that would be better than like, you want to be the coach. I don't know of a team that never fires anybody that you'd be really high, even with some of your flaws. So Tomlin orded me to get a job, and everyone would be lined up to be the head coach of the Pittsburgh fucking Steelers. It's like the New York Yankees, like the LA Lakers, like the Dallas Cowboys, like Alabama football. It's like Duke basketball, Like people want that job. It means a lot. It's why Mike Tomlin never wants to let go. I don't blame him. It's an elite job. It's why he was so offended a couple of years ago when they're like, hey, would you want to take a hundred million dollars to be the head coach of the USC Trojans? And he was, I mean he was. I've never seen a guy so angry over being rumored for another job. And I understand it because you would never take the USC job. You're the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. But I just think it's time. And then when you watch the New England Patriots. Bill is not some idiot. Listen, He's old, and we can question how good of a GM is. He clearly has some issues, but when just look at his ability to influence the game as a defensive head coach, he's been excellent. Like he's still really good and you can only like Bailey Zappi. He's playing with Bailey Zappie. Now, if you want to crush him for drafting Mac Jones, I gladly will. That's not in a million years. If I would rather like, hey, I want you to draft this guy at fifteen, I'd say fire me. I would never take that guy. And I said it with Kenny Pickett at twenty. I'm not a believer in taking that guy in the first round. I can't do it. I won't do it. To quote Mike Singletary, but he did it, and he was desperate for a quarterback, and this year's bit him in the ass. And I was thinking when they were kicking the Steelers' ass and it was like twenty one to three or something, if he just had a decent offense. With how good his defense has been in some of these games, I mean, they're probably a five and seventeen, and then they win the night. All of a sudden, they're like, like, they're not They're not an embarrassment. Now I still believe what I've been saying for a while. It's time to end this. No different with Tomlin. Some things come to an end, right. Some divorces are inevitable. And in coaching, you don't get to like go out like John Elway like I'm going out on top. It's not the way it works. You get fired. Check the history of any coach they get shit canned. I think Belichick. I read this article on The Athletic about his trade value. They basically polled and talked to a bunch of anonymous gms and executives around the NFL, and some believe like you'd still get a first round pick for Bill Belichick. Some believed to be complicated because you know, he doesn't necessarily have a GM that comes hand in hand. He's the GM and most people don't want him to be the GM. But as a coach, it can't be really disputed. You would take especially let's use the Commanders as an example. If they got Belichick, Let's say, let's let's do it this way. If if I ran the Eagles and I ran the Cowboys. Would I rather have the Commanders hire anybody or Bill Belichick? Right, Ben Johnson or Brian Johnson or whoever. Mike McDaniel's guy is just go around in the league, all these quote unquote hot shot offensive coordinators. I would pay them to hire one of those guys because history would say a lot like a quarterback, that that guy is a fifty to fifty proposition at best, right, Bill Belichick, Like if they actually have some players there, And like I've been saying forever, I was asked this the other day, like, what do you think happens with Sam Howe? Do you think that the Washington would they draft a quarterback? I said, until I know who their coach is, I don't think we can speculate on what the hell they're gonna do. Because if you tell me that Bill Belichick is their head coach, I could see him being like, I could win eight or nine games with Sam Howe.

Right.

I remember Jim Harbaugh got that head coaching job for the forty nine ers. Alex Smith was a joke. He's like, I want Alex Smith to stay here. What happened the next year? They won thirteen games, they made it to the NFC Championship. So I think Bill Belichick's offseason is going to be fascinating. Now. I don't know the crafts. I'm not saying that it's a one hundred percent lock that they fire him. Maybe they look there's no better options, But I do think it's time to break up, and I think they get some for him right now. And I think he's gonna have a lot of value in the open market. Like I said earlier this week on a podcast, he has his offensive coordinator available. Like part of Bill Belichick, the power that is him. We talk a lot about Brady, it's actually Josh. When you give Josh to Bill Belichick. Two years ago, they made the playoffs with Mac Jones. Mac Jones is terrible. So I think you're looking at two franchises here. I think they got new coaches next year. I think both of them have new coaches next year. And it's easier for me to say that with New England because of everything that's trans fired over the last couple of years. It's easy to argue, like, oh, Pittsburgh's not gonna I think we're no different than them. We all see it like it's kind of over. I saw Sean McDermott. I didn't have access to the article. I don't subscribe to the sub sac that tied Dunn Wrights. But there was an incident in twenty nineteen where Sean McDermott said something about nine to eleven, which I watched a press conference today, that he had friends DIY in nine to eleven. He's a New York guy. To me, I don't even I have no take on that. I can't. It was hard for me even to follow the story. But one thing's pretty clear because something I said about Brian day Ball a couple of weeks ago, which I stand by that his coaching staff is not big believers in the guy, not a huge fan of Brian Dabele is someone that covers the Giants. A couple of days ago text me and said, you got pretty good sources on Brian Dable and we started texting, like you think Brian da Ball could lose his job with the Giants? And he's like, oh, it depends on the maras. But the one thing I could see if Sean McDermott were to lose his job him try to get back to the Bills of course. I mean, you'd rather be with Josh Allen than anything the Giants have. And I started thinking that Sean McDermott, like to me, given their history, even if this year gets weird and they miss I believe he's earned enough these last three years, thirteen eleven and thirteen wins to maintain his job. But that's not the way football works. These owners have never been richer, they've never been less emotionless when they turn on a coach. It's never been easier for them to get rid of a guy, regardless of his contract. So if the Bills were to end up, let's just say, look at their schedule eight and nine, it's not inconceivable that Sean McDermott is fired. And for the first time, when I watched Sean again, like I didn't know all the contexts of this nine to eleven story in twenty nineteen, it was kind of irrelevant. All I know is there was a lot of heat when it comes to this organization. There is a lot of urgency to win, and win now in these next two weeks at Kansas City and then play in Dallas might be the guy's Buffalo career. And I've known Sean for a long time. Whenever I see him, he's cool. When I text him, he texted me back. I'm a Sean McDermott fan. Now, I've never worked for him as the head coach. Like Listen, I can only speak to my relationship with him. I like the guy. I think he's I've always thought he was one of the most impressive guys in my thirty nine years of life. I've ever been around his discipline, his work ethic. You know some of these stories that come out that he can be a dick. I never really saw that. He's always cool to me, but clearly sometimes a defensive head coach when you have an offensive oriented I mean, they're a quarterback driven team. Things can splinter fast, and there are a lot of stories anytimes. But I think this guy needs to win. I think he needs to win fast, and I think these next two games, because all of a sudden, you beat the Chiefs and the Cowboys and you're eight and six and headed toward the playoffs to be a ten or eleven win team. Everything's okay. Help Maybe you win a playoff game in a big upset fashion and everyone likes you again. But you go eight to nine. You miss the playoffs, things can turn on your fast and these owners have so much money. You could kind of feel the tension when he was answering this question about something that happened. At first. When I was watching this press conference and trying to figure out what was going on, I like, he said this last week, trying to galvanize the team when shit was hitting the fan. No, this happened a long time ago. I'm like, God, when that type stuff happens, I got red flags on your operation. And I do think that there's a legitimate heat. So this is a massive, massive weekend for the Bills, and listen to Andy Reid and the Chiefs, whose team is not as good as it's been. But to play them after a loss at home is not an ideal spot. I know a lot of people are like, oh, it's a great spot for the Bills after a loss, I mean at home in Kansas City. I don't know. I think it's gonna be very tough. A couple more things. The Jags were robbed of twenty two million dollars over four years. I saw someone tweet out that said, if anything has ever symbolized the success of the National Football League, over the last decade, an NFL team could be robbed by an employee of twenty two million dollars and it took them years to notice. And it's one thing the Cowboys, the Niners, you know, some of these the packers, some of these huge brands, the Jags, which got to be a bottom five quote unquote brand. Pretty wild story. I mean I read some of the athletic stories. This guy's buying cryptocurrency, he's buying poor. I mean, this guy twenty two million dollars. And listen, anytime, I've known some people that have had some small businesses, some really small, you know, talking maybe a million or two in revenue, and others that were probably way more than that that have been robbed by people that had worked for them. Money's all relative, and whether you own a company, you're not accounting for every dollar, you're not getting daily printouts. It's not as crazy as you think getting robbed by an employee. And I know I had a very very close friend get in one of these situations for less money than this. And I think sometimes the employee feels they look at you, they're envious is probably the wrong way to put it. They go, I'm doing just as much work as you. What we're equals. Why don't I have any access to this money? And I think sometimes you get a convoluted, especially if you're a little crazy. I would imagine this happens more than you realize, because for every public incident this happened to the Sacramento Kings years ago and the Jags, I think it happens to a lot of companies with a lot of people. I know the two people that had it happen to them that I know they trusted these people like to the end degree. I know one of them was a girl, and they would have trusted their lives with this girl. I actually went to high school with her, and she robbed them of hundreds of thousands of dollars. So I do think that this stuff is a little more prevalent than most of us realize. And other than that, before we get the bull take, Roger Goodell called Vegas Sportstown, USA. One thing that's pretty clear in my lifetime for the majority, like in the nineties, the last fifteen years up util the last couple of years, it's crazy how anti gambling all these leagues were, and it just shows you, like most of these people don't actually care. Like I've said this forever, with marijuana and the NFL testing for it, Like half the owners are probably high as I speak right now. They don't care about weed. They just care about the insurance premiums, the reason that they have to test the guy. It's all based on money. It's all just a spreadsheet. It's not there's no emotion involved. It's not because they actually care that their starting wide receiver dB is getting high three times a week, the owners getting high seven times a week. It's irrelevant. It's all about the bottom line. And I think the owners most rich people. If you've ever gone to Vegas, hell, you don't even need to have money. I went there, you know, poor as a guy on the street. When I was in college. I had no money. I had to take a credit line from my credit card to get one thousand dollars to gamble that weekend for my buddy's twenty first birthday. And I was like, this fucking place is in the first time I ever went to Vegas, I was twenty four one years old. I had one hundred dollars in my name. The only money I had was like my three thousand dollars credit card that I had to use to get some actual cash. This place was incredible. I can't even imagine that I've been since when I have more money. But being an NFL owner obviously the NFL player people love Vegas. If you have money, it's very fun. There's a lot to do, and they don't even need to hide it anymore. And the Super Bowls there this year. I think more big events are going to go. They remember when Kamara got in trouble for beating someone up at a club. They had the Pro Bowl there. This place is gonna be the mecca sports. So when Roger calls it Sportstown, USA, I don't think necessarily it's Sportstown, USA. But it's a vent in town, USA, and it's big event town USA. It's cool shit happens USA and the NFL. While they have a team that is not very good there right now, it's kind of irrelevant. Stadium's cool and they have access to it, and it's probably the best thing they've done in recent memory. Because the Oakland area has now lost three teams in six seven years. And if we were starting any franch from scratch, we could list one hundred places Oakland would not be one of them. They will never ever get another professional team ever again. And Vegas is gonna have all four teams within the next three or four years. Right, they got a baseball team, They're gonna have a basketball team. They obviously have a football team, and they have a hockey team. And I was someone, now, I was close to it. I was working with the Raiders. I didn't want to see them go. It's the best thing that ever happened in the NFL. It's obviously the best thing that ever happened to the Raiders financially. But the NFL use them right, the Chargers. It didn't matter where you put them. Throw the Chargers with the Rams and put the Raiders. I think it worked out really, really perfectly. Now, ideally, I think if you could do it over again, if I was in charge, I would put the Rams in La I would have kept the Chargers of San Diego, and I would have put the Raiders in Vegas, and then I think we would have had something. But regardless where the Chargers are, it probably doesn't matter. Before we get out of here. My bold take of the Week brought to you by my friends at Guinness. Now I'm hot, right, I just had Alabama beaten Georgia and they took care of business. There's the Army Navy game is this week. Is the only college game which I got to go to when I was in Philadelphia. I would highly recommend it is you know, the football, both teams run like basically the wing tea, but the entire event, the pageantry, the opening equivalent of the acts and everyone flying, it's badass. It's if you like football like America, just it's fucking incredible. But no, take there. I've never I haven't watched one snap this this year of Army and Navy. Obviously both programs are down. I do think, you know, listen the Texans, what they've done this year is incredible and I would buy if they were a stock, I'd put one hundred grand into them yesterday for the next five years. I think they are like a rocket ship. I don't think they're a lot to make the playoffs this year, even how things are shaping now, I don't think that basically, could they may end up eleven and six, They could end up ten and seven and be in the playoffs. I also think it wouldn't shock me if they end up nine to eight. I think this week is the perfect storm. Big win against En Brickney at home. Obviously the Jags win, everyone's feeling each other. And then you go to New York and everyone, including myself, Jets sock terrible organization, just fold the franchise. Zach Wilson doesn't want to play. I could see Zach Wilson having a big game. You know why, None of it fucking matters. It doesn't matter. What does anyone have to lose anymore? Clearly, no one's getting fired, the offensive coordinators coming back from Rogers, Zack Wilson's not gonna be there whatever, He's got nothing to lose. I think the Jets win this week. Listen, it's the ultimate trap spot. But I also think it's just it's just a weird spot that they would be one of the last teams I'd want to play on the road given the situation. I just think things get weird and I think the Jets win, and I think Zach Wilson listen, I think it's a one off situation. My guess is Zach Wilson looks good this weekend. That is my bold take, brought to you by Guinness. Gather your friends, raise your glasses and toast to al Win Guinness drafts out imported by Diagio Beer Company USA, New York, New York. Please drink responsibly. Okay, let's talk about my friends at Morgan and Morgan. Do you know that getting in an accident is hard? 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Okay, back at it with my main man, Stucky. If you're watching this on a little thing called YouTube, make sure you subscribe. If you're listening to the pod, go subscribe to his podcast Big Bets on Campus. We got bowl games, we got a lot of bull games, and I already got a strong bull take for the Final four in terms of one of the games that I don't like, I love. You can just find him on Twitter hammering out winners, because that's what he did last week forty nine Ers winner, Houston Texans winner, Green Bay Packers winner, and if you threw in my logic with Nick Saban winner, I mean we were just handing out some cash last weekend, Stucky.

Yeah, it was good weekend. It's been a good month plus in the NFL, good season. So hopefully we can close strong. Are you gonna share the vulger apoletic? Are you gonna save that for our episode?

No? No, well it'll be I mean, we got we got a month, so we might as well a month, right. So here's the thing. And I regretted it immediately when I saw it.

Up.

I'm a Frisno State guy, so I've been watching Kaylan Dubor's career. The guy's a fucking ass kicker. Now, his team looked weird at times, but he's proven this a big game, that guy can really coach. Now he's got a month if I believe that Kaylin Dubor is a top five ish coach. It's happened pretty quickly the last but I think if you just project him right where he's gonna be viewed schematically. His staff, grub his offensive coordinator that Saban tried to hire. I'm a Sark hater historically, I'll give him his credit this year team stacked conference sucks though, and he does have a high payroll right with the nil, but his team looks good. I cannot after watching what he did against Oregon and Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi. I mean, Oregon's got a high priced staff with a bunch of players. I thought he took it to him on Friday night, and that was a game. I would imagine they say it's fifty to fifty. That place was rocking with green and Kaylin Dubor is just a big time coach. You give him a month. You know, it's like Saban as an underdog in that game. You had to be thinking, like, of course his team was ready to roll, you know, against Georgia, who's not as good. Now, this to me, the talent discrepancy of Texas and Washington. You know, you could argue it's a coin flip because obviously Texas is loaded, but Washington's pretty loaded too. They got a ton of guys are gonna get drafted in the first round. They got a ton of draft players. I'm just betting on the coach. And when you're gonna give me five and a half six, I mean the number is pretty high, bro. And I for a guy that look at historically on Steve Sarkizi and it's not like he's banging out ten and eleven win seasons. This is kind of This isn't kind of. This is an outlier year for him, and he's really benefited That conference sucked this year relative I think like two years ago last year was really good. So I'm just I'm I'm gonna hammer. I might put an uncomfortable amount of money on Washington within the next week as long as that number stays about where it is and it hasn't budged, So I what do you think about the logic there? Just Kaylin Dubor against Sark getting a lot of points like that seems crazy to me.

Yeah, I would leave. I haven't dove in fully yet. The bull market and those games are they're the market will be pretty settled, like it's not it's not gonna go to Mission, it's not gonna go to Texas three. So and they're like big betters who would move the market. They're not gonna tie up credit for that long and so. And you know they have the Michigan Alabama line, which is it's not going to get the three either way, and this is going to stay a buff Brey. So you have time as of right now, you know, I have like weeks to dive into this matchup in depth. Yeah, I would lean Washington for a couple of reasons you mentioned de war. I mean, not to get two into the weeds. But yeah, I just don't think that the market properly accounts for how good he is, even if you go back to his days as in OC at Indiana Fresno, Eastern Michigan, and then even take his time at FCS Southern Illinois I think.

Uh sick.

Oh yeah, Southern Illinois as a coordinator head coach since twenty ten, his teams are like sixty eight percent against the spread. I mean he has just been a consistently good bet from a matchup standpoint too. And number one, look, Washington did look weird. There were some rumors that they were dealing with the flu for a couple of weeks. Their defense had a ton of injuries. They were finally healthy, they started playing brunermore at linebacker. Blah blah. I won't get two into weeds. But and then they also they have three Sunday receivers who are now finally all fully healthy. You know, you got McMillan polk in the donsday, all finally healthy for the first time in a while.

The running back that Mississippi State transfers pretty good too, Like, yeah, I would throw him out.

I would assume that's what the war is going to do here. You cannot run on Texas. Nobody can't do it. Don't try it. I mean, Alabama could not Allie Gordon with Oak State. No one can. And their d line is unbelievable. It can't run. But their secondary has some weaknesses that's typically a corner. So Washington come out, spread them out with your three Sunday receivers, and I think that they'll have some they'll have success there. So yeah, I think that this probably should be a field goal. I think it's too high. I would I would lean Washington with you coaching edge for sure for Washington, especially with this much time to prepare. And uh yeah, I don't. I don't hate your take it all. Xavier Worthy to for Texas one of the best receiver returnment in the country. I doubt he plays. I mean, Sark's going to not give anything away, but he's on crutches after the game, after their their big twelve championship game, so we'll see on his status. He's really important with their most explosive receiver, one of the best returnment in the country as well, so that would be a big loss. But the weakness on this Texas team is their secondary and with your three healthy receivers now with Pennix in a month of prepare that Texas defense could be in trouble. Texas is gonna get its points as well, even though Washington's defense is playing better. I would lean your side, and it should be an awesome watch should be a highly entertaining game. There's a reason that the total is a sixty four.

When I think it's the primetime game. I think the Alabama Michigan is the first game, and they put that one out.

That might not be the most exciting watch. So yeah, I think they got it.

Yeah, because last year wasn't Ohio State and Georgia was the second game, and it was it was pretty unreal. I think if you substitute, now, we got a ways to go. He's got to prove that he could do it for a long period of time at this level. But if we just look back in five years and let's say he's won the Big Ten and he's viewed as like no one even argues it. Like if you just put Kirby or Harball or you know, some Brian Kelly or just a guy with a lot of name recognition as the coach of this Washington team, do you think you could shave two points immediately off that spread just the initial number?

Yeah, I mean I could tell you that in like the very very deep sharp betting groups. De Borr is one of the most highly respected coaches in all of college football. So and you know, those groups and people tend to be a little ahead of the general market and in the general public for sure. So yeah, there's a reason he garners a ton of respect in some of the sharper circles that follow college football the closest. So yeah, I would agree with you. There's no reason to believe that his reputation and market guy is just only going to climb.

Well, even if you know, let's say, you know, there was a recording this right after a story about Harbaugh being offered eleven million dollars, but he can't interview with NFL teams, Like, guys, you do know NFL teams pay like fifteen to twenty million dollars, So it's like it sounds like a lot of money to ninety nine point nine percent of people. But relative to his profession and his like he can make, someone would gladly pay Sean Paygne's got eighteen million dollars a year. So if you don't think Harbaugh someone would give him a number in that world, you're out of your mind. But let's just say he leaves to the NFL, now I know, the assistant offensive line coach or not, He's not the assistant officent. He's the old line coach O C. Sharon Moore, who did an awesome job with Harbaugh out. You know, at a job like that, you're not just a lock to give it to someone like that. To me, Debor is the guy that Michigan would immediately call. Now you could argue Seattle great place, are going to the Big Ten, But let's face it, I mean, Michigan is just a better job than Washington. I'm a West Coast guy, honestly, is probably not even close. So and Washington's an awesome job, right, So I mean Michigan's like fucking coaching the Cowboys or something, you know, the Yankees. I mean, it's a top two or three job in all college football. And you have to wonder, you know what he like? If I told you in a month that he's the head coach of Michigan, it's not the craziest thing to happen, right, if you factor in some of the variables of Hardball leaves.

Yeah, And I also could see if Harball stays, Big Ten gets tougher next year, Ohio State still doesn't have a reliable quarterback situation. If they disappoint again, day is gone.

And disappoint could just be you know, he'd go eleven and one, he loses that game again.

He's that game again. I could see the wor going there. I definitely think he's going to eventually get a bigger job. He's probably the top name I would imagine if one of those spots opens up.

You watch a lot of college football, you know, I guess I'm a little biased. I don't watch as much Big Ten. Besides, you know, the two main teams that matter the most, I'm just not Wisconsin Iowa. I'd fucking rather watch paint ry. You know, games like that, just given the way they've played lately, are Oregon Washington going into the next year just gonna clearly be like the three and four teams right behind Michigan Ohio State.

Yeah, clearly. I mean it is just it's an enormous gap just from an offensive standpoint, there's I mean, lookie, just look at who the Big Ten. I'm happy just because the Big Ten championship game now is going to be relevant and the Big Ten.

West is just it's a joke.

It's basically like a group It's like a group of five conference trying to come out. Whoever wins. It now plays a Power five team in the conference championship. So yeah, they're going to be right there with Michigan and Ohio State, and they might even be ahead of Michigan. We'll see where Michigan is. They lose a ton and they're gonna lose under the draft, and then if far Ball goes, I think that's probably why they want to lock them up. Do you lose some recruits, and so yeah, Oregon.

And even USC and Ucla, I mean, they are liable to knock someone off during the year.

And USC could have one of the biggest turnarounds. We saw UCLA's defense and for once, Lincoln Riley made a good hire getting linn as their defensive coordinator from UCLA former Ravens guys. So if their defense can take the leap and they find a quarterback, it looks like Oregon's probably gonna get Dylan Gabriel. So they're gonna be right in the mix as a top five to six team. They might even be the best team in the Big Ten next year. And then we'll see what happens with Washington, but they're gonna be right in the mix too. So yeah, I'm excited because that entire conference gets more excited. It's sad that the Pac twelve is gone, but the Big Ten Championship at least will be a banger of a game every year now, and.

At least the teams that matter for them are playing the Big Ten teams, so they're gonna be on major games. And even Utah, you know, playing the k States and the Oklahoma States will be you know, entertaining. When I watched Dylan Gabriel, I watch a lot of Oklahoma Is he kind of like a poor man's penix vibe to him. You know, lefty, you can move a little better, obviously, But the organ that they are not screwing around taking their chances with any of their you know, young high school recruits. They're just gonna plug and play these guys and try to win big. I like it. Okay, let's dive into the NFL. We're just like a week away. We got we got Saturday and Sunday games, so we're gonna have a lot of action. I love that little stretch right after college football ends, get like the Heisman ceremony, but then the NFL is like, yeah, we're gonna take over for a couple of weeks and they're just throwing fucking games. It feels like every night of the week, multiple doubleheaders. So it's it's a it's a fun time for the NFL as we have kind of this break and even those early college football bowl games, you know, my Bulldogs going to New Mexico. Games like that, you know are fun to bet on. They're not always fun to watch, depends. So this week, yeah, where you want.

To because you have the NFL games that matter on a Saturday, then you have, you know, on pay attention to with your bets. Hey, flip it on if it's closed, if it gets crazy with the Bulls. So it's and you know there's not one hundred colleg football games you got to pay attention to. So it's just a it's a really good mix and makes this those Saturday spun in December.

Okay, let's go to Chicago. Who I'll say this about ebra Flus. His team has played a lot better, right defensively, clearly they're better. The Justin Fields experiment, you know, it has I think a lot of people that want to defend them just blame the offensive coordinator who might suck. But I would also say if you just ran the plays that I think fans want to run. I don't think it would be as pretty as you think. So they're to me a hard team to kind of gauge. Now at home divisional game, this is just your classic I don't kind of throw out the records. And let's face you know, the Lions in a dome last week obviously can look really fast. They're probably offensively one of the I mean, they're probably not that much different than forty nine ers, right, sweet fast tight end Jamison Williams, got multiple running backs. Saint Brown like their team offensively, the weapons are pretty legit defensively though, at any moment, like you could score twenty eight points on them. So it's just this one of those classic divisional games where you just you take the team getting more in a field goal, especially at home.

Yeah, I like the Bears here, anything over a field goal. They the Bears two weeks ago, a couple weeks ago, should have beat the Lions in Detroit. They were up twelve with four to go, one of my bets on the show. Luckily they held on to cover, but they blew the lead late. This you know, number one of the spot line. Second straight road game, Bears coming off of by which has a little more value late in the year when you're dealing with a couple more bumps and bruises. But this Bears team's trending up. These two teams are kind of heading knopsit directions defensively EPA for play since Week seven, Bears sixth on defense, Lions twenty ninth success rate Bears eighth lines thirty first. So this Bears de loook. They added sweat, helped their pass rush, Jalen Johnson's playing like an all Pro corner, and they just got healthier across the board. So their defense is playing a lot better Lions defense. It's a mess in the secondary. They had some injuries early on in the season, which didn't help there, and now they lost a player that many people might not be famier, but Alee McNeil, their nose tackle, one of the better in tier defensive linemen in the NFL. I think he's even better than Hutchinson. So important that he just went on ir big major loss, especially in a game like this. And also, you know, not only is a good spot for the Bears against the Lions defense that has struggled with mobile quarterbacks all year, it's outdoors in conditions. It's not gonna be as bad as it was originally forecasted, but it's still gonna be, you know, fifteen to twenty nine hour wins. It's gonna be freezing cold outdoors. You mentioned how good the lines are indoors, Jared Goff turns into an absolute pumpkin outdoors his entire career. Is a guy who's thirty and fifteen against the spread indoors outdoors under fifty degrees in December one and six against the spread. You look at his just his numbers this year eight point one yards per tempt indoors with two and a half touchdowns per game, outdoors six point nine yards per tempt, one touchdown per game. His whole career indoor five point three percent touchdown percentage, cut that in half outdoors two point eight percent. We talked about this, I think the other week. He just is not the same quarterback outdoors and conditions. Bears defense is playing a lot better. Fields is also playing a lot better worked on some of the mechanics of his drop back in his five and seven step drop when he was out offensive line is healthier. They should be able to run it now. On Detroit without mcneilan there, So yeah, I think you take over the field goal here with the Bears, who are definitely trending up in this line's defense, it's just mess right now. I mean, think about it. They almost blew that game last week against the Saints team that lost their quarterback. We're playing without multiple starting receivers and just is not very good offensively now they're terrible. So this this Lion d is a mess. They're kind of a finesse team too, and Goff just struggles outdoors. So yeah, give me the Bears over a field goal.

Monday Night football. While it was, you know, listen, probably the best game of Jake Browning's life. He was the player of the Week in the NFL and the AFC. Offensively, it was cool to watch. Now you kind of take a step back. If the quarterback just play solid. They do have really good weapons chasing the league player mix, it's not that crazy. Their defensive coordinator is good. But what a devastating loss for Jacksonville, right, I mean, Houston just pulled that game out against Denver, so they're right kind of on your heels. If you lose, you're in control, or you were winning the game and Trevor's playing good and then to lose him which looked like, you know, a season which you know, turned out to be a little more basketball. Ye where the guy I think really freaked out, probably thought his career was over. Turns out he's gonna be okay. But they also lose that lose their left tackle. They're just banged up that they only have a one game you know up in the division. Uh, now you've got to go to Cleveland, who's coming off you know, an l who needs to win. Flacco actually look kind of capable in the in that game against the Rams. This is a rough spot for the Jags that at one moment during that money night football game, like, oh, they're gonna win it. They're gonna have a ton of momentum, and they're gonna, you know, probably end up cruising by a couple of games. This division. Now, I wouldn't say I put all my money on the Houston Texans to win the division, but it's definitely become very very interesting. I don't know, you know, I think it's easy for Doug kind of old school NFL guy to be like, you know, he's questionable, Like I mean, there's a chance Trevor Lawrence doesn't play for several weeks, right, who knows, maybe we don't see him till the playoffs. But uh it's a it's a major freaking concern. And they lose their left tackle, So I mean, it's just it's just a devonating that that play was any team in the NFL that lose their left tackle and they're starting quote unquote star quarterback on one play. You literally can't have a worse play.

Yeah, and you asked Christian Kirk, who's been the most productive receiver for.

UH let the first play the game?

Yeah, very early on. I think the first drive, I don't know, first play. They also the defenders too, so it's bad. And now on a short week after that loss, you're going on the road with CJ. Bethard, who is a and for what it's worth, I guess I should say this. Every year for the past decade, I've gone up to Cleveland, watched the Ravens play, visit some friends up there, have a good time. This is it's almost always this weekend college footballs died down. I don't have as much college football work, so I can get away for a weekend but for whatever reason, the schedule makers put Ravens at Browns in September this year, So I picked this weekend to go up there. It's only one college football game. I was like, you know this good weekend. Texans, Browns bothal should be in the mix. Excuse me, Jacks, Browns both should be in the AFC playoff mix. Fun game to go to. Well, they both arsenal the pulp mix. Little that I know it's gonna be thirty mile an hour wins torrential downpour and it's gonna be Joe flackover CJ. Bether. So at least I'm not going to the Steelers Patriots game. And also there's a bar right behind where we're sitting, which I'll be in most of the ethnoon watching the other games. But I like the Browns. Here the Bethird, he's capable, he knows the system. But now with offensive line injuries, no Christian Kirk in these conditions. And here's the one thing with Bethard, He's not mobile, he can't move around, and you're going up against that Brown's defensive front. It's going to lead to disaster. And look this Browns, I don't know what it is. I mean this Brown's defensive You look metrically speaking, their number one in the NFL EPA per play, but at home they dominate. They are allowing ten points per game at home, which is a stupid number. They're allowing thirty and a half on the road. I don't think I've ever seen that much of a discrepancy if you just look from an EPA perspective, they at home just in their home games this year, a small sample, but they would be the greatest defense in the history of the NFL for a single season. Now, granted, other teams have to, you know, play a full schedule, and it's only been with six or seven games, but it shows you how domin if they've been at home, and now you're going up against a backup quarterback, injuries on the offense on a short week. I think it's I don't know how the Jags are going to have any success in this game in those conditions. And Flacco's had a lot of success in his career in the wind. You know, he's Cooper might not go. Denzel Ward should be back on defense for the Browns, which is important, but Flacco can still throw a deep ball even in conditions, and if it's a little short, guess what, You're probably gonna ge a couple of PI calls here. I trust the Browns offense a little more, but most importantly, the Browns defense will be without Lawrence, without the tackle, without Kirk, even Etms backed up, even Beths little bang up. I know, with all those injuries, the Browns defense, by far, the Browns home defense, by far, is the best unit in this game.

It'd be a pretty crazy if they lose that game and the Texans are playing the Jets and now Zach Wilson inserted back, all of a sudden, they have the same record.

I guess who Jack's out next week with, maybe not Leonard, with Lawrence the Ravens.

So it would change fast. Now. To me, the Texans Jets game kind of does have a little bit of a feel that you'll you know that I don't feel exactly, you know. That's that's one thing. You know, Sala Dimiko was his line back. They're gonna know each other pretty well, uh that one. I wouldn't be as confident betting on the Texan. I will say one thing about football, which is funny, and I'm guilty of this we annoint guys like, oh, they drafted Sauce Gardner, they should have picked Derek's, you know, Or they they took Derek Stingley, they should have taken Sauce. All of a sudden, you watch Derek Stingly. Dude looks like fucking reevas out there moving around picking the ball off. He's a much smoother athlete than Sauce. And here's the thing about Sauce, good player for a big corner. I kind of like that guy to be a physical tackler like Jalen or Sherman. He is not that at all. So this notion sometimes we do that when two players same position are picked and the one guy has a lot more early success and the other guy's really coming on. I know this. I take Derek Stingley assuming like he's just gonna stay healthy because physically he is. He's a freak, and it make I understand why they took him. I mean, if they hit on that pick, along with their other guys, whether they end up winning ten games this year or they end up going eight to nine, whatever, they their future is as bright as anyone when you factor in all these rookie contracts.

Yeah, I mean you got your you could have a top you have a top ten quarterback. I think I think that's fair to project you have a top ten quarterback next year. Yeah, the second year, and.

He's kind of been one this year, right, Yeah.

You could, you could. You could argue next year you could get into the top five. And you have him on a rookie contract, and then you know, you have Anderson. Their defense is starting to come along. You have the two most important positions, and yeah, Stingley's look great. You have Stingley and Anderson. And by the way they hit, they it sucks that he's out for the year. It's really it's really gonna hurt.

Them he breaks break his ankle or yea, I.

Love but you that's the other one of the other most important positions in the NFL star receiver. You also have a really good left tackle. So yeah, that they are set up for success if they can find a way. You know, they have a pretty easy schedule. I agree that that Jets game is very trappy, but the Jags Browns, if you look at like the you know, you can look at like the leverage index is the most important game of the weekend. Is that Jaggs Brown's game. The winner loser of that game. Like the Browns lose, it's going to be really tough for them to get to the playoffs. If the Jags lose, all of a sudden, you know, you're yeah, you're in the wild card Hunter, You're not even a lot for the division. You got the Ravens on deck. So that game is very important. It's also very important for you know that a lot of other AFC teams in the wildcard mix, like the Bills. I just took a future on the Bills this week, a little fifty to one flyer to win the super Bowl, because I think there's gonna be cast. And the one thing I know in the NFL is all these teams down the stretch that need to win more like more times than you would ever think, they end up losing, especially in the last week. I'll always expect chaos in the NFL. Perfect example will be the Texans losing to the Jets this weekend. So yeah, if you're one of those other AFC teams, it's it'll be a fun, fun One of the reasons Bills too, it's just our couch change. It'd make the whole the rest of the season even more fun because every one of those games, I'll have a little like I'll even rooting interest to night. I can root against the Steelers who were in the Mets, and I can root Otherwise I would, you know, cut my limbs off with a butter knife instead of watching that game.

So, uh, well, think how good you'll feel if the Bill. If the Bills win this week and next week, all of a sudden they beat the Chiefs and the Cowboys, You're like, cheez, I mean, my team's getting hot. Yeah, Now they could go the other way too.

Yeah, then they're done if they lose the next two. This is a cute. If they lose this game, I actually think they're gonna beat the Chiefs. But if they lose, they got to win out they get the ten wins, and that includes the Dolphins and the Cowboys. So this game is just massive. If they went out there in they'll get their eleven wins. But they got they probably realistically got to get the ten and then you might need help. But that should get you in with seven teams, even though it's not a guarantee, but I'm sure that the teams. Yeah, whoever gets the Ravens Dolphins play each other New Year's Eve. Most likely that'll decide the one seed. Loser of that game gets the two luke. Not only do you not get so say you lose that game, not only do not get to buy in home field advantage throughout your prize could be the Bills on that first weekend. So just that could be an absolutely massive game.

I would say the Ravens would be much more equipped to handle that game at home than the Dolphins. That would suck because they had obviously would have had a fantastic season all of a sudden. I mean, what's the line on that game, assuming the Bills have been playing well? And I mean it's not as big as you would think for your typical two to seven game, right, So that would I'd feel bad because so I think the Dolphins. You know what's crazy when you look at the AFC and NFC, it's like whoever is the healthiest and comes out playing the best out of the Cowboys, Niners, and Eagles are clearly going to be the favorite in the Super Bowl, right I mean, and it could depending on who they're playing beat the pretty big line for you know, Super Bowl Sunday. The AFC is pretty fucking nuts. I mean, it's pretty wide open. The Chiefs are clearly a shell of themselves what they've been over the last five years. Do you trust the Dolphins? I mean, when's the last time the Miami Dolphins won a playoff game. Their records speak for itself about going on the road in cold weather conditions. So getting one of those top seeds is basically a must. I mean if they want to have any postseason success. You know, listen, not to talk about your Ravens, but it's not like we have a long resume about Lamar. Come these January big games. Now, their defense is really good relative to their competition. You'd say, well, they should probably win the AFC if all things are going well.

But it's that's one of the reason I took a fly on the bills. If they get in, yeah, they could go through. They could run through the AFC.

We thought the AFC was a lot better. It just turns out with the injuries and the way it's broken out on their side, it turns out the NFC just turned out, you know, because at the top, which is all that matters.

Yeah, both both conferences. The NFC's top, Like I have the forty nine ers a number one team by far. I actually have the Cowboys right now number two. But the Chiefs offense has been a mess. Not many people could have predicted how bad it's been, so they're just a shell of them.

Sell and you had.

So the AFC now is basically a three team race unless the Bills get in, and it's the Ravens, the Chiefs, and the Dolphins, and all of those teams have flaws, and then Mark Andrews loss is huge for Baltimore as well. But it was supposed to be the AFC is gonna be seven eight nine team unless the Bills get in, which is kind of the wildcard here, but this wasally seventy eight nine teams deep. Trevor Lawrence now injury. You can get him out. Herbert, he's gonna be out. He's one of the top ten fifteen quarterbacks. Burrow got hurt.

I mean, it's Aaron Rodgers. Jets never benefit.

Aaron Rodgers goes down for the Jets. So you had, you know, five or six quarterbacks. You even have some of the other guys going to Kenny Pickett getting hurt. I mean, the quarterback injuries in the AFC this year have been ridiculous. So yeah, it's definitely way more wide open and it's going to be a lot easier of a path for those top seeds. But yas of right now, I definitely would make the NFC a favor.

Kay. I don't condone, you know, in any profession, but obviously a public profession where you know you're on social media a lot going after someone's wife or girlfriend. But Jamal Adams quote of when they go low, I go lower is a pretty solid quote. I gotta get that's a good line. Even though Pete I saw yesterday was not happy. He told, you know, basically, we do not we don't do that around here. But Jamal refused to back off. This is just listen that game last week for the forty nine Ers, the moment the schedule came out, they had been talking about they never hit from it. It's a big deal in forty nine er land for fucking nine months. Honestly, the moment perty got hurt, they already knew they were playing the Eagles on the schedule the next year because of the divisional rotations. That was a super Bowl level game for Kyle, for the team, for debo for everybody, and that was a kitchen sink game and they beat the shit out of them, which, as we talked about last week, it's not that crazy. They had just beat two teams that are two of the better teams in the league, definitely two of the better quarterbacks in the league in six days, ran out of juice. The Niners leaned on him, you know, I saw Fred Warner say yesterday, like we gotta move on.

It's the NFL.

We can't just keep talking about the Eagles here on Wednesday and Thursday. But it's like keep getting talked about right with Dom. It's just I'm not saying they put their feet up. They're obviously a team that you know, it's not just favored to win the Super Bowl. Just if you watch football, they should win the Super Bowl. I could see them, you know, Seattle. And Fred Warner said this despite some of these games the score looking a little worse if you watch the game, the game can feel a little weird at times, and he's not necessarily wrong. Now on Thanksgiving, you know, I think the final score is thirty one to seventeen, but the Niners were up what twenty one to three or something in a half, So it was the Nighters beat the shit out of them. They are clearly way better than Seattle. But I could see this game, like if you told me they were down seventeen to ten and a half, just sleep walk through it. Even the crowd. I could just see this. The buzz in this place is not now if they were playing the Raven like they are in a couple of weeks or something. But these next two weeks against Seattle in Arizona, I don't know. I could see the Niners going a little like University of Washington after they beat Oregon. They're gonna win, but these enormous spreads, I mean next week against Arizona, assuming they win this game, regardless by how many is what double digits, you know, fourteen points? Yeah, so I would just be very careful for these next two weeks. Not saying they can't because they easily can, but it would. I don't expect a loss. This game would to me, would be more losable than next week if just you know, Gino was hot and the wide receivers. But I definitely could see this thing being weird for a while.

Yeah, I like, I love Seattle here, I mean I loved San fran San Francisco last week. As soon as they.

Rolled upset spot or just the I could.

Say it's I think the forty nine ers probably pull it out. But I think this has the feel of like it's it's twenty to twenty with five to go and after a slow start. Yeah, I mean, look, you have they're coming back across the countract that a huge win could come out a little flat. Not only that, and they're at the peak of their market dale now, I mean like they've won four straight in dominant fashion after the bye week. I mean, you're in the NFL. What you really want to do is sell high by low. This is the perfect spot to do it. After that big game. And then, by the way, Seattle has lost three straight, two of them, you know, one by one point. Then they asto the Cowboys in a game they fought, and then they got blown out by the forty nine ers. Gino Smith wasn't really healthy that game, short week whatever. Forty nine ers are clearly better, but they played last on Thursday night. They have more time to prep, more rest, and this is their season. As you said, kitchen sink game, Carol said, look, we're going to show up. We're going to make the playoffs. And there's one thing Carol's good at. He is the Tomlin of the NFC in these spots. He always gets his team ready to go and they'll show up. He's for what it's worth. Past twenty years, he's fifty thirty three and three against the spread as an underdog sixty point two percent twenty and twelve in the division. Second most profit about one hundred and fifty coaches over the past twenty years, only behind Mike Tomlin. He's also twenty one to five against the spread eighty one percent when his team is on a losing streak of two or more games eighty one percent covered by about a touchdown per game. Most most profitable coach in NFL history in that spot. And then, just to provide added context of the bilos Cell high spot, divisional road dogs of more than ten points usually like, hey, the other division team is rolling at the time, no one wants to fade them. Fifty six percent over the past thirty years. Teams laying double digits after four more consecutive wins over the past twenty years. So again, one four more straight your double digit favorite. So you're playing a team that you're clearly better than no one wants to fade you, right, so line can be a little inflated. You also could just be a little flat. You're not going to always be sharp in the NFL every week. Those teams since two thousand and three sixty one eighty and one against the spread forty three point three percent. So yeah, this is just the spot. Double digit road dog, double digit road divisional dog playing for its season, A lot of familiarity between these teams. Forty nine ers could be flat. Seahawks will give you everything they got, So yeah, I think that's this. I'll say like forty nine has end up winning like twenty four to twenty somewhere around in that ballpark.

And any thoughts before we get out of here. On the Cowboy Eagle game.

I like the Cowboys. I wish it was at a field goal or better. I just look the Eagles not they lost. We'll see if the Cowvits can finally win a big game. I mean, they dominated the Eagles in Philly and then they just did with Dallas and Dak does in the big moments they melt. But there's no reason why they're offense now on a fast track where they just have been dominant. Can't do the same thing they did to the Eagles defense right off, the offense line is fully healthy. They completely handled the Eagles pass rush, and the Eagles cannot defend because all this last week. Again, Cowboys have the same They have good tight end. But you know, you put Ceedee Lamb in the slot quarterback playing at a high level, you could pick apart this Eagle secondary. So there's no reason why the Cowboys shouldn't move up and down the field just like they did in Philly and their defense. I think I trust them make a couple more plays, especially at home. And you have to remember that this Eagles team, just because they lost last week, there's still a residual effect they've played. I mean, how much do they still have left in the tank. You went to the Cowboys, to the Chiefs, to the Bills in overtime, to you know, a hype game against the forty nine ers. Now up, go on the highway and go to Dallas, Dallas on extend. The Eagles are getting no break in their schedules here. They've been lucky overall, but now their schedules has been very unlucky. Forty nine Ers revenge spot off a couple of loss, extended rest while they're playing a game, you know that where they're on the field for a hundred plays. Now they play that game, Dallas off a game where they played on Thursday already at home. They're sitting at home a couple extra days to prep rest. So I like Dallas. I wouldn't lay three and a half, but I threw in some threw it in some moneyline parlays with the with the Dolphins. I think they win and we'll learn a lot abou Dallas. If they can't win this game in this spot. And I know the Eagles could get that Dallas Goddard back, which would help because they need a third receiver. But they can't win this game in this spot. Totally agree they're not winning the NSC. You can you can write them off.

No, for sure. I mean one thing for the good thing for Philly even if they lose, because it would feel like we just our season just fell apart in two games. Dallas. Then does I think play the Bills and the Dolphins back to that game, So it's yeah, they got a long way to go. So then the Eagles I think play Seattle on that Monday night game and next week to get they got flexed.

Yeah, and then they get really easy schedule. And the thing is, if you're.

They played the Giant, I think they haven't even play the Giants you had this season they played twice end the season.

And yeah, so and if you're looking at it, if you're worried about tiebreakers, if Dallas wins this game, then they're tied record wise, but by conference, Philly would still have. If the season end today, Philly would saw the division and that's it. You know, if they remain tied, they if they went out from that point on, and Philly is much more likely to win out. But because they both lost to San Francisco Arizona, Dallas has lost his to Arizona, Philly's losses to the Jets both bad teams, but ones out of conference, Philly would get the tiebreakers. So the Cowboys have to pass them in the standings unless they lose like a couple more divisions. You know, they each lose a couple more games and end up tied.

But Philly, that Arizona game is a pretty devastating l for Dallas.

Multiple wins, we come back to haunt them multiple times.

Yeah, I think This is one thing about Philly is you know, Reddick is really good. He he'd play for anybody. But Fletcher Cox is old, Brandon Graham is old. They're two young stud defensive tackles. Like one guy weighs three hundred and fifty pounds. It's just you get tired easier. And Jalen Carter is a rookie. It's mid December and they've already played typically what he would do in a college football season, so he's got to be gassed. He doesn't have the same quite impact in December that maybe had in October, and he's probably their second most talented defender and their secondary. I mean, I think the Niners felt pretty comfortable talking a lot of shit about Bradbury because they know that he can't cover them and their safety positions, Like they're not covering guys in space. I mean, who's covering Ferguson. It's just that they're back seven because ultimately their d line, like those guys, even if they are a little gas, are still big time players. But the back seven is pretty awful. I mean, there's a reason they were begging Shaq Leonard, who was just cut in the middle of the season. To come to their team, it's not pretty. And if you have speed and talent, which the Cowboys have, the forty nine ers have, the Lions have, if you could just block them a little bit, it's gonna be hard. Like they're not gonna be all over you.

Yeah, yeah, if you could block their offensive and the Fortnite is only have been a lead offensive line. No, the Cowboys have a better offensive line. They can handle them. So like there's no reason why there's Bradbury. There's a lot of data out there now. There's different types of corners. You could have a corner, you know, a guy like Richard Sherman played late into his career, play a lot of zone. Eagles play a lot of man a lot of data out there. Once you hit thirty thirty one as a man corner, it's kind of like a running back. You just you lose a step and today's NFL, your production goes down quick and fast. Not different for different talking them just on average in general, could be thirty two for some. But Bradbury and Sleigh they have not played well this year, played well last year. I think that they might be on that cliff and it's really impacting the back end of their defense, because if you have two corners you can really trust, then some of your other areas of weakness they're not as exposed. But yeah, Eagles defense has major issues. So we'll see. Yeah, I think that in order for Dallas to win the NFC, they need to find they need to win this game to prove to themselves is that they can beat either the Eagles or the forty nine ers, and they needed to find a way to get to win the division. They're just a mentally kind of fragile, kind of finesse team, whereas the Eagles and forty nine Ers they're kind of you could play out you could play either one of those teas. We go outdoors playing the snow, you play indoors. You could. So the Cowboys, that Cardinals loss, which could keep them out of contention for the division for the one seed, could end up being their ultimate downfall.

It's crazy. It's one thing to have a freak loss to a bad team. So they kind of got their ass kicked in that game.

Yeah, Yeah, it wasn't. It wasn't like anything lolooky with.

Turnovers or No, it wasn't something like late two pick sixes in the fourth quarter. It flipped the game or something. It was just they got worked by Josh Dobbs Well Stuckey. Let's have a weekend and kind of come down this home stretch.

Yeah, let's do it. Pray for me when I'm out in the conditions in Cleveland, hopefully not with a losing ticket in my hand. So I'm Phil Brown's.

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