John reacts to the Philadelphia Eagles defeating red-hot rookie QB Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders in a pivotal Thursday Night Football matchup by a score of 26-18. Then, John explains why Saquon Barkley is putting together an MVP level campaign behind Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and a stout defense as the Philadelphia Eagles improve to 8-2 on the season. John takes a deep dive into Saquon Barkley who has reemerged as one to the League’s best running backs behind a great Eagles offensive line, and goes in on the incompetent New York Giants for letting an all pro caliber player walk. After, Middlekauff tips his cap to a talented Eagles defense, led by former Georgia Bulldogs Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, and salutes a “really good” squad that could propel the birds to a divisional crown. Next, Middlekauff dives into rookie quarterback sensation Jayden Daniels, a former Heisman Trophy winner who struggled tonight against a divisional rival, and looks at Dan Quinn and the Washington Commanders potential to ride an early hot streak throughout the second half of a tough NFL season. Then, John dives into the marquee matchups of NFL Sunday including a gigantic AFC battle between Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills before diving into the AFC North bout between Russell Wilson’s Pittsburgh Steelers and Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. Finally, in another edition of Fugazi Friday, John sounds off on the radio industry and podcasts in America.
Lastly, John is joined by The Action Network sports betting expert, Stuckey, to share their best bets for Week 11 in the NFL.
3:16 - TNF Reaction - Commanders at Eagles
25:41 - NFL Week 11 preview
30:00 -Fugazi Friday - The radio industry
38:00 - Stuckey joins the pod
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The volume. What is going on everybody? How are we doing? Happy Fugazi Friday? Whereas my man big Dom says fugazi And that's a little bit. What Washington's offense was tonight was not good. But the Eagles Saquon Barkley, Nick Siriani moved to eight and two, and uh, man, they got a lot of firepower. Starts with Saquon. Though Saquon and Vic FANGI are figuring out the Eagles their kicker could make some kicks tonight might not have been close. We'll dive into the game. You know, the Commanders. I have a lot of respect for dan Quinn and what he's done because I don't know if most of you, including myself, could name any eyes on their defense, but they play really hard offense. Obviously, we'll dive into Jaden. He looks, he looks hurt, he doesn't. He doesn't look nearly as good as he did early in the season. Obviously, the running element to his game is kind of non existent, which is a problem for them, but big win for the Eagles. Uh, We'll dive into some a couple other things. Obviously, we got some big game Steelers Ravens Bill's Chiefs stuck, you will join us, We'll do a little Fugazi Friday and yeah fired up for the weekend. Other than that, any other housekeeping around here. Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. Make sure you subscribe to the podcast if you listen on three and Out and we've had content all week long. Had some special YouTube comment content early in the week when Shane Waldron got fired. So you want to check that out, go ahead. But you know, before we dive into football, I got to tell you about my friends, my family. They're not my family, but they're my partners, and they are the official ticketing app. They might as well be family because how much we talk about them here. Listen. Do you want to go to a game? I don't know how many games I went to at the link. My over under probably be like thirty. Just a great place to watch football. I mean, night games are awesome. Anyone that if you're living an NFL town and your team's doing well, there's nothing like a big night game, whether it's Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night. The vibes, the tailgates, the buzz in the city. It's kind of our version in the pros of the cool stuff that happens in college football, especially in certain cities. I mean the Eagles like that. Obviously Lambeau Pittsburgh this weekend. Not a night game, but it's rock and rolling. So if you want to go to one of these games. Obviously college as well, I mean the college football playoffs. We got a lot more college football left this season. College basketball is off and running. Any concert, any comedy show, the app doesn't get any better. Because you download the bad Boy. You can search by event, you can search by venue, you can search by team, you can search by artists, you can search by basically anything. I've been using it for years. I can't recommend it enough. So take the guests work out of buying tickets with game Time. Download the game Time App, create an account, use the code John for twenty dollars off your first purchase terms supply again. Create an account and redeem the code John for twenty dollars off. Download the game Time app today last minute ticket's lowest prices guaranteed. I don't know where I should start here. Let's just go big picture on the Birds. It was clear this offseason we are never going to get an off season hard knocks like we got with the Giants, but the moment that happened and it went viral of John Mora talking about Saquon Barkley. I remember doing podcasts from Lake Tahoe because I think I watched like it went on like a month vacation, but I was still grinding, got to pay the bills around here, and I remember watching that on the couch up to Tahoe, thinking like, this is not going to go well because the Eagles have so much going for them. Offensively, it's by far the best offensive line he's ever played with. He has a running quarterback, so it's not like you can just focus on him with some of these RPOs and some of the looks they were gonna get. They also have by far the best passing game he's ever been associated with. They have an All Pro guy in aj Brown. Obviously DeVante in a stud tight end like I just didn't see. Now. Obviously he had been injured in the past. If he was healthy, he was going to dominate, and I would say he's been even better than I thought. I don't think it's crazy to say. I'm not saying he's gonna win it. It's kind of like the Heisman. It's difficult. You gotta have momentum on your side. I mean, Lamar is having another fantastic season. I mean, Josh Allen is right there in terms of the odds. And if he goes on and beats the Chiefs and they compete to have the number one seed and he keeps throwing up, you know, touchdowns, got to play better than he did last week. People, we always lean quarterbacks, right, It's all been my entire life far young Manning, Brady Mahomes, Rogers. It's very, very difficult for the Barry Sanders and the Adrian Peterson's to win it. They have to be spectacular and typically they need bad quarterback years. It's why Christian McCaffrey had a very very good chance last year because Lamar was a really good player last year, but statistically he is dramatically better this year. And then Christian kind of competed against his own teammate in Purty. But this year, obviously the quarterbacks are having better seasons. But you can't really dispute that Saguon Barkley is an MVP player, right. I mean he's one of the best players in the NFL. And in a game like tonight. It's a good example that what I love about football is you kind of definitely if you gamble, you know this, when a game starts, you kind of like ugh, you know, if you're on one side, you're like, ugh, I got problem this game. If you like, if you have an over under and you take the over, you're like, I don't know, this looks weird. And there's a feel you get in a game early on. Now, obviously random things happening, like late in a game, maybe you get an extra fourteen points with five minutes to go, but for the most part, you can feel out a game early on. And it was clear, like this thing's gonna be ugly. You know why Thursday night games later in the season are a lot on guys. Right, this is November fourteenth, so the Commanders had played ten games coming in today their bys late. The Eagles had played nine. Like, you've played a lot of football, you're tired. It's a crazy turnaround, I mean, an insane turnaround for these guys to get ready in four days, so it's naturally gonna be sloppy. And it was like, you know what tonight's gonna be about. It's gonna be about two things, the defensive line and really your front you could include the linebackers as well, and the running game because you could tell Jaden was way off, you know, and and Jalen like you can't really put too much in, Like Jalen could have a couple awful drives and you just never know, like at any moment, he can make a couple of plays and all of a sudden, you look, he's got like one hundred and sixty yards and two touchdowns. So he can be a bizarre player that way. But it was like he wasn't gonna throw for three hundred yards, so it was gonna be a night on both sides. Who can run the ball and what defensive line can dominate. And that's where Sakuan has taken the Eagles to another level. I mean even before he busted off a couple of his big runs for touchdowns and just for big plays throughout the game. His six seven yard runs give them a sense of life. Right, He'll make a guy missing a hole, He'll do his Herbstreet said it tonight because it was dead on, because he's called these games. He had a three sixty spin move like between the tackle box where it was like, does he even quite know what he's doing here? And he three sixty right into a hole and then kind of broke a tackle and got like five six yards and Herbstreet's like, that looks like the Penn State guy. Well, guess what the Penn Steak guy was. He was so damn good he got drafted number two overall. And that's the guy we're getting. And let's face anyone who's followed Saquan's career, who is listening to him talk on podcast or interviews, he's the easiest guy, or one of them in the league to root for. And it's awesome to see him kicking ass and taking names. And the Eagles got an MVP candidate. I'm not saying the guy's gonna win the MVP, but that's the level of player he is for twenty seven million guaranteed, and he has taken this offense to a completely noother level and has taken a ton of pressure off the quarterback. And like tonight, like quarterback was fine, didn't make any mistakes. Ranway need to hit a couple of big plays, dumped it down a couple times that it led to other big plays. Hit aj on a couple slants hit Davonte like was fine, but he doesn't need to be the guy of a couple of years ago, Like we need this guy to be the MVP. And I think that's directly correlated with Saquan being behind him, which is what's a great thing. And that's why the Eagles to me, on offense right now feel dramatically more complete, Like this is an offense. I was texting a couple buddies to night, I'm like, this is a scary as team, man, it really is. And this is why I picked him to win the division. Too much talent and the other thing that's coming to fruition for him. We talked about ugly game, running game, defensive line. Well, what was everyone like being critical about the Eagles Early on in the season, It's like, where's Jalen Carter, Where's Nolan Smith? What the hell's Jordan Davis? Is a guy four hunderd pounds? What's going on? And then as the season is progressed, what's happening. Jalen Carter is playing like one of the best interior offensive line in the league. He looks like a fucking monster. Nolan Smith. I feel like every time I watched the Eagles. He gets a sack, he's in the backfield, He's making shit happen. Jordan Davis tonight had a big play on a short yardage where he drove the I don't know if it was a garter center back in you know, into the backfield and created a tackle for loss. And number fifty three is looking like an All Pro player. Obviously. Now they've gotten Cooper dejan playing. We know how good CJ. Gardner Johnson is the young corner Mitchell like, their defense looks really good, and we'll dive into Washington. I mean they have some issues offensively, but the Eagles completely dominated. I mean, at one point in time, the game was twelve to ten, but it should have been nineteen to ten. I mean their kicker missed an extra point and he missed two field goals. I mean that game when it was twenty six to ten really could have been, you know, thirty two to ten. I mean, the Eagles had dominated that game. They couldn't get points on the board. And credit to Dan Quinn, who a lot like Fangio. I mean that those are two of the better defensive coaches in the league. And listen, I'm biased because I had a front row seat when Vic was at Stanford and then the forty nine ers. I think he's elite. I know people were down on him because when he was a head coach or last year at Miami. Like, give me a break, I will think Vic Fangio as my defensive coordinator any day of the week, twice on Sundays and twice on a Thursday night football game. Now sometimes it takes time and it looks dramatically better. And if he can get Jalen Carter playing like Jalen Carter's playing, and obviously the position coaches get credit, they're gonna be really hard. And this is what I said, like listen, I Sirianni, they're gonna have the you know, the worst head coach in all these playoff matches. If we all had to choose tonight, who would you rather have, Dan Quinn or Sirianni, We'd all choose dan Quinn. But it's a pretty unique job. I mean, Vic Fangio makes like five million dollars a year. Kellen Moore makes a shitload of money. I don't know exactly how much he makes. He makes a lot. Why because they are they're the head coaches of their unit, and Sirianni's just kind of in charge of like firing up the troops, kicking it with dom and like keeping guys with good vibes. And right now it's hard to argue that it's kind of working. And I think maybe it's last year, but they went through that adversity. It was weird. It was ugly. You know, even the night like ugly game. You're like, God, are the Eagles really gonna lose to Dan Quinn and Jaden Daniels at home on Thursday night football? Because it kind of and it's like they just kind of battle the kind of battle. Then you looked up at the end, it's like, hoy, they're kind of dominating them. And so, you know, props of the Eagles, I mean, they got this is people question, howie, this is why I support them. I mean, they got a shitload of talent on their team, and they invested in the line of scrimmage. You know who's taking the most heat right now in the NFL in terms of GM Oh, there's a couple, but Ryan Poles is right up there. Why offensive line? It's like, well, you guys don't really no. He took a wide receiver number nine, Like you should have taken an offensive lineman right there. And you look at the Eagles like, guys go down, next guy's up, pretty good player, And they just got really good players on the offensive defensive line. Because in football, like most of your games are aren't gonna be thirty eight to thirty five shootouts when your quarterba, you know, playing his best football, it's gonna be these ugly ass games. So can you dominate the line of scrimmage? We can talk how football, the the pussification, how it's super soft, and obviously rules are a lot different than they used to be. You know, it is a completely different sport in terms. Jayden Daniel's got a roughing the passer call tonight. Obviously, when you hit the quarterback in the face, that's you know an automatic the guy the defender like hit him in the shoulder pad, I don't even think hit his face mask. So they're very quick to throw flags. But at the line of scrimmage between offensive and defensive lines, it is still extremely physical. And when you have better players than the opponent, that's where you can separate. And that's where the Eagles are separating. And listen, like, regardless of how much talent you have, Like even Adam Peters would trade most of his players for Eagle players. It's still football. The game's not played on paper. The game this isn't fantasy, right, It's played on a grass field in South Philadelphia. And they were right there. They were driving the field twelve to ten. The Eagles offense was off. Sakuon was keeping a minute just with like three and four yard drives. Jalen hadn't made that many big plays. The kicker was missing. You're like, god, the Eagles are just off. Even though he's like god, they should be ahead. And dan Quinn goes forward on fourth and two, and at the time al michaels, in fairness to him, I think it was so out of the blue because who in that situation would have been like a forty three or forty four yard field goal, would have not kicked the field goal to take the lead with eight minutes left. I always say this, the game has to dictate your decisions. If it's thirty to twenty eight and you're down a couple, I get it, like a field goal, they're gonna drive. We're not playing defense. They had twelve fucking points, twelve twelve and he goes for it when his quarterbacks not playing well. The Eagles are dominating the line of scrimmage, dominating their offensive line. I was getting worked. They were getting blown up constantly, defenders, all of them. And I'm not just talking Jalen Carter. I'm talking Brandon Graham, Nolan Smith, sweat. They were causing havoc and to go for it when it clearly they were a little discombobulated. It's like, I don't know, I just don't think you can do that. I know you can't do that. Gruden went viral with the barstool guys today saying, like, what that's fucking insanity, because I don't care if you're a numbers guy, if you're not a numbers guy, old school, new school. It's just this is football. It's twelve to ten with eight minutes left. You have a team that isn't as good as the other team, yet you have an opportunity to win. Regardless of what happened. Your quarterback's playing like shit. It doesn't you could take the lead, and he went for it and he didn't even get closet. I don't get it. I don't I haven't followed dan Quinn close enough this season to know like his inclination in these moments. I thought so, Like, there are certain guys like Sirianni and Dan Campbell, you know, they always go for it. It kind of makes sense this one. I guess dan Quinn's one of those guys too. I thought that was reckless. I really did. In that level of game when you can take the lead, when you can take the lead, I don't understand it. It doesn't make sense to me. Not down twelve to ten, And it completely backfired because then they got the ball back a couple of plays later, hit got Art who fumbled, but they got it, and then like two plays later, Saquon scores, and then Jaden throws a pick, and then Saquon scores again. It's like, well, we're down a lot. I mean, what the fuck just happened? Well, that happened. You didn't kick the field goal, and you changed the whole landscape of the game for reasons I don't know. And I hate being critical of dan Quinn because I'm watching the night going how is Washington gonna win ten games? How is this possible? They're gonna have a banged up quarterback for half the season. We'll dive into him in a second. I don't think if you could get a random football fan, like someone that watches the NFL, that they would have any chance to name three Commander defenders. I don't think they'd have any chance. I think there's a decent chance they couldn't name one. Now, if they're really really like nerdy, geeky, maybe they'd get Bobby Wagner. But we were talking about it before we recorded, and it's like, I think most people wouldn't even realize Bobby Wagner was on Washington, but there wouldn't be like the I don't want to script the kid's name, but Sanders Sill, the corner who is an awesome young player. I mean, he looks I'd want that guy. There's second round pick from Michigan. No one could name that guy. No one could name some of their random players. And that's a testament to Dan Quinn and how good of a jobb he's done. I mean, both those two defensive coordinators, and obviously Dan's the head coach as well, but like Vic Fangio and Dan Quinn when it comes to defense, really know what they're doing and are really really good teachers, motivators, their shit works, right, and you see that. Obviously VIC has better players and they're really starting to take off. But you know, the overachieving that's going on in Washington, even if you end up only winning ten games your season kind of you know, it's a bad end of the season. To me, it's an incredible accomplishment. Last, but not least is Jaden Daniels. You know, he was terrible tonight. He really was. How many throws to night did he drop back? And there'd be multiple guys on like crossing routes and the ball would end up between the two of them with defenders and everyone all four of like the two receivers and the two defenders would all look at each other and be like, what just happened there? And that happened three or four times. It was like is he injured? And then early in the game he'd come over and they'd put the rap on his rib. He clearly hasn't quite been the same since that panther injury, because every game they play, I mean, they keep talking about it, and then he's got some injury. I guess now between his index finger and his pinky finger or his web of his finger. He's just off. I mean, he didn't look good and its Herbstree's Teddy looked like a rookie and not a very good rookie. And they are no matter how much they overachieve on defense, and they definitely are, they got no chance to be good teams if he's not. He doesn't need to be an A, but he's probably got to be at minimum V plus because he has to be good enough for you not to just double down on the run game to open up the passing game. I mean, Terry's a good player, but I don't think people are fearing Luke McCaffrey like he's Jerry Rice two point zero so and Zach Hurtz is somehow still kicking ass and taking names four to thirty five years old. But you need him to be pretty pretty awesome to have a shot. I mean, the reason we all thought they were really good early on was because of how dynamic he was, and tonight like doesn't quite look as fast anymore now. The Eagles their team's speed on defense, I mean, they've been playing really fast, but every time he tried to get to the edges, whether it was Dean, whether it was one of the pass rushers, whether it was fifty Bond, they were just kind of all over them. And that fourth down play, which was kind of fucked up, he kind of second guess it and he bobbles it. Then it looks like there's a lane. It's like, well, I think if he's Lamar Jackson two point zero, he might be able to get there. And he doesn't quite put his foot in the ground fast enough. Then all of a sudden it's like ah, I didn't even get close, and he gets to the sideline he gets destroyed. So obviously the first half of the season couldn't have gone better, but tonight was a night where you go, we just need to take a break like this, this long bye. He needs it. Just sitting the cold tub, sitting in the hot tubs, sit you know, in the shower, in a bathtub, like just chill. If I was Dan Quinn, I'd tell him for the next three or four days, you ain't doing shit. Just go relax, hang out with your girl, just get off your feet, and anytime you need any ice, a trainer will knock on your door and come to your house and ice down whatever you need. Because this version it's not really functional for them, like they can't play offense, and today was and listen, it was hard, especially when you're banged up Thursday night games. I think this kind of extended mini by right where you get an extra three days off, is gonna be big for him. But they they like, you could miss the playoffs if that's like any team in the league can beat if that's what your offense is gonna look like. And that wasn't the guy that we saw earlier on the seasons, which I was kind of open to watch the night, but like, I don't believe like he's he's injured. And you know what's funny is I had a conversation with a buddy in the league because you know, Caleb's a pretty hot topic around the league and a lot going on right I mean, they're just stories about do guys on his team like them? You know, it's just it's gotten weird, it really has. And he's like, you know, the one thing that everyone talks around the league right now, what makes the Caleb situation so polarizing is is Jaden bo Nicks and Drake Drake May are just like dudes. Dudes are loved in their locker room, so like, listen, it's your rookie season. You're gonna have some ups and downs. I'd say if you would have told any Commander fan at the start of the season they would have got the ten wins, that would be an enormous, enormous success. But the Eagles are now eight and two. I mean they're feeling pretty good. Man, They're looking good. They're just they're gonna be tough, they stay healthy. They got a lot of dudes. I mean, they really do. Speaking on this weekend, I mean it's just it's a pretty good weekend. Remember two weeks ago, or not two weeks ago, but the week I went to the Red River, what week was at like first week October, second week October. I somehow went to the worst game of the weekend. But it was Oklahoma Texas, it was Oregon, Ohio State, it was Ole Miss LSU. It was just fantastic games. And like you know, the NFL, sometimes you get like one good game starting Thursday night. I mean, that was a fantastic Thursday night game. On paper, the game was a little hit or miss. But Steelers Ravens, I mean it's been the best rivalry in football for twenty years. Bill's Chiefs, I would say has been one of the better rivalries of the Mahomes era for sure. So I mean, if you told me what's the final four in the AFC, I think it's a very very decent possibility that it's these four teams. Right, So those two games, obviously there's some injuries in terms of the Bills are dealing with. You know, I don't think the Chiefs, like everyone, including myself, like they're not gonna go un to feed, They're not going to go to Fefe. But all of a sudden you win this game. It's like, well fuck, why not. I mean, all of a sudden you're ten and ozer. It's like, well they won ten, They've won sixteen straight games, like what's seven more? So it's like it starts to becoming a little more real. And I think the Steelers and Ravens, you know, speaking of any I think what's so cool about these four teams? If you get a chance. There was just an incredible article on Steve Spagnola on the Athletic It was it Honestly, it kind of brings you to tears at times talking about I mean, it goes over his whole career but it spends a lot of time about his relationship with this group since he showed up, you know, in twenty nineteen, from L J. Snead to Chris Jones to Nick Bolten and just some different incidents like I mean, all these guys, I mean they tell him they love him, like when they hang up their phone, like I love you. I mean, these guys consider this guy a dad. And you read this article, you're like, it's pretty easy to see the Chiefs kind of got some special going on. I mean, honestly, it moves you emotionally reading about there. There was a moment which Sneeze brother got stabbed and killed. And I mean Steve Spagnol was the first guy called Chris Jones. The time they it's it's it's powerful. But it's like it's pretty easy to figure out why they're so good. And I think the Bills got something special going on, and they've had something special in the in the McDermott Allen era. But even if you win this game for them, it's all gonna be about you know, that's the thing about the Chiefs, and this is really what they've done to these other two teams, you know, the Steelers the Bills in the Ravens have been viewed as Super Bowl contenders these last couple of years. The Steelers have not. And this is the first year. Like, you win this game and all of a sudden, it's like, well, are they gonna be like the two or three seed? It's just gonna be the first time since two thousand and six Tomlin wins a playoff game. Is this team gonna be for real? Because unlike the Bills and the Ravens, they haven't had the playoff success of recent But I think we all agree, like TJ. Watt Championship Player, Cam Hayward Championship player, Mika Fitzpatrick Championship level player, like their core guys on defense or guys are like I'd be in the trenches with, Like those guys are guys like on the Bills, on the Ravens, and on the Chiefs. In terms of like, those guys are winners, even though I guess Cam Hayward has, but you know, the other guys have not won playoff game. So I'm really really excited, honestly the Sunday night game. You know, the Bengals, if they don't win this game against the Chargers, like they're just not making the playoffs. It's just a little too little, too late. Even though you watch them, you're like, God, they got Joe Burrow playing the best football of his life. They got Jamar Chase, who's just an incredible player. And this type game where Harbad just kind of ends seasons and all of a sudden you look up and Harbaugh wins twenty five to ten, and it kind of ends, you know, not like legitimately on Monday, Zach Taylor is fired, but it's kind of everyone acknowledges, Yeah, it's probably over for him. Harbaugh has gotten a lot of people fired over the years. That's for damn sure. Okay, let's get in really quick before we get out of here. Fugazi Friday. And this is actually more of like, I just want to talk about this guy in this situation. But most of you probably don't fall like the radio industry that closely, and the terrestrial radio business is in shambles, and people partly because like their runs over right, it's completely changed, and it's been like that the last three or four years. They are not going to generate the revenue as they did most of my life in the eighties. The nineties the two thousands, when if you wanted advertise you went to them. Audio wise, obviously podcasts and even video podcast it's just changed the game. They're fucked. It's over. Which as someone that worked in it, it was very very clear to me one that, like how they generated their revenue. It was based on a couple meters in a market, even if the market had millions of people that represented it was kind of like presidential polling. Uh, but that's how I mean, some of these big stations did millions upon millions upon millions of dollars in revenue based off like, yeah, we got three people with meters, so our ratings are through the roof. It's like, wait, you got three people representing two million people and you're getting twenty percent share of the radio market and you can now sell at premium rate? How does this make any sense? But forever there weren't any other options. Podcasts didn't exist, YouTube didn't exist, all this none of this stuff existed. So it's like they just got all the money. And if you had a successful station music as well, I mean think about music, and I could tell when I was in radio, it's like there had been like five years My last year in radio was sixteen but by now, right, you have fifteen plus years of cars that are Bluetooth adaptable and we listened everything on the phone, so they got no shot. And radio has been firing people left and right, and iHeart who were in business with I mean they're no different. I mean, obviously they've adapted and changed and it's why they're in business with podcasts. But in the Bay Area CANBR which is a legendary station, and it's like for those of you that live in the Northeast, it's like the equivalent of WFAN. It is the powerhouse station in the state of California. You can basically hear it from the tip of California down to southern California all the way to Lake Tahoe. It has an enormous signal. They have their sports station, they have the Giants, they have the Warriors, and they fired a couple guys, one John Lund, who when I first got into the radio business after leaving football, and just as a radio I've been a radio connoisseur since I was very very young. I remember listening to Loveline, which was a guy named doctor Drew and Adam Carolla back in the nineties and they would basically just have like porn stars, people call in about their sex lives. It was so ahead of its time, and it would be on from ten to midnight on the West Coast and it was I mean, it was the most incredible show I've ever heard in my life. Obviously I love sports talk too, but even then it didn't totally exist. Really took off, like when I was in junior high with Jim Rome. I remember being in college the first time I ever heard Colin when he went to ESPN and sportstock really took off. But the Sportstok radio station in San Francisco had the San Francsco Giants, which you know, starting in the mid nineties got Barry Bonds and obviously one World Series in the San Franco forty nine. Ers and player podcasts now are so big and it's cool, right you get to hear these players, like I was watching Saint Brown his podcast on Instagram talking about his teammate that shited his pants. It's just stuff that you wouldn't get, you know, it didn't even exist, and it's just funny. It's cool. There have always been players that made the jump and back before podcast happened, and Tom Tolbert, who was fired. He's one of the most legendary radio hosts in the history of sports talk radio. He basically retired from the NBA, where he played in the NBA for a long time. He went to the University of Arizona where he played for some legendary teams. For Loud Olsen was teammates with Steve Kerr and he played with Shack. He played for the Warriors when they had like Chris Mullen and Tim Hardaway. And he became a radio host like right after he was right after he retired and for twenty eight years on one of the biggest radio stations in America. He hosted drive Time and within the last twenty he was their biggest star by a mile. And today he gave up his last show. But I think what made like, I just remember listening to him. Honestly, seeing that made me think of my dad, because I didn't get my dad's truck. My entire life without KNBR being on, and especially in the afternoon it was Tom Tolbert and a guy named Ralph Barbieri. And you know, West Coast sports talk is a little different than like when I lived in Philly. It's it's less aggressive, and you know, I think what made Tom unique is he was this former player that was like best friends with Steve Kerr and Steve Young and Brent Jones and Kyle Shanahan said today, like you were kind of the Joe Rogan of sports talk. Like I would talk to you, but I didn't feel like I was being interviewed. We were just bullshitting, and you know, you see that die, and it's just kind of sad, Like I was lucky enough, and I'm very I'm not that religious, but I do feel blessed that it just happened in my life that when I got fired from radio because the Raiders were mad at me, and I got forced into the podcasting space, and it was early on I realized, like they're fucked, and this is really something. And it's not like I was some you know, on the forefront of some movement like a bitcoin twenty years ago, going this is gonna be something. I just kind of happened to me. And in twenty sixteen, you're like God. And obviously they were growing then, but they're nothing like they have been the last four or five years. And I kind of I got a big time head start and seeing these radio guys go down that you know, we're a huge part. I mean I used to after I left the other station, I used to go on with Tom Tolbert and he couldn't have been any cooler. And I hosted a ton of shows with him and John Lunn, who was also Great Papa's partner I worked with for years at ninety five to seven The Game, and with him I saw like how to be a pro, how to prepare, and just also I think one thing I've learned from both those guys is like to be successful in this medium, I think there are a couple go to things that you have to have and I think Tom definitely has this and John does too. Is like you can't really give a fuck, you know, you kind of just gotta let it loose. And this is ultimately entertainment. And I think it's why writers always had a hard time with radio hosts, because like they always view themselves as journalists, and that's true, like you're a journalist, you're a writer, you're a reporter or whatever. Radio host is not a journalist. Being a radio host is about being an entertainer and being someone that they come to hang out with. And I think about this sometimes too. It's like, did I talk too much sports there? And there's always a balance, but I mean tom Is, I mean on he'd have to go on the Mount Rushmore of sports talk radio, and it just it just kind of signals again like I'm glad radio's dying. It's good for my business, but it's also sad, and it just the station can br you know, the Northeast, like Philadelphia and New York and Boston, like their radio marks are still doing pretty strong and doing pretty well. But out West it's done. It's it's completely over, and maybe not officially today, but like these places won't even exist in the next four or five years. And like I said, as someone that grew up loving and obviously it exists in different mediums now on podcasts again, which is what I listened to, it just was like, damn man, it's like their fugazi finally got caught up, right and once the it happened, you know, and everyone was at home and you could listen to every every way, it just accelerated that tenfold and it's just fucking wiped him out. And most of these people I don't care about. And it's not like I even know Tom personally that well, but it was like, damn, I mean, this was a guy making big time coin for a long time, who fucking moved the needle, who dominated, and he was just he was your classic West Coaster, you know. He just happened to be six ' ten and playing the NBA for a decade. I mean, you could tune on the show and he'd be having like shack on and they played together in Orlando and they'd be telling stories about like Dix in the shower after games. It was just like you either got it or you don't. And some guys got it in every industry and he was just one of those guys. The NFL season is rolling along and contenders are starting to separate from the pack, but one thing is not changed, and that's Draftking Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL, and it's the number one place to do what I love to do. 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Okay, we're hitting the home stretch here. Thanksgiving is right around the corner. And Uh, It's like I say every week, Stucky, I get sad when I look at the It's like I saw Ole Miss. They've already played ten games. I'm like, Uh, it's just we're too close. We are too close to the ending. But that means we have more information we can gamble. I had a pretty good week last week, not gonna lie. Every line that we talk about is presented by a Friends DraftKings back again with my main man, Stucky from the Action Network. Kentucky got a got a big win I saw last night or two nights ago against the Duke Blue Devils, So don't sleep on Kentucky and a newfound coach.
Yeah, it was nice to win a big game. Kentucky hasn't won, man, They won a couple last year. But the bars here were going crazy, like people one of my wife's bars. They were. It was packed, so Tuesday night, half to the brim, people were opening champagne bottles, spraying all over each other. For a regular season game, it's a it's different here for Kentucky basketball. It's the only sport in the state that people really care about, especially now the football team is not doing well. So yeah, there's a lot of excitement. It's a different kind of team, Like there's not it's not just take five freshmen that we're getting ready to ship off to the NBA. It's a well coached team. Even like in the press conferences after the games, Mark Folk talking about like all the adjustments that they make and you know what they were doing with their ball screen defense and the second things like that, that's refreshing.
He's a former Kentucky player, right.
Yes, something that cal just never did. He's he's really highly endorsed by Patino. But he was at EU YU and made you know, ran one of the best offenses in the countries. So I think he's a really good coach. So at the bare minimum, it's a team that I don't think we'll get embarrassed to completely out coach in the tournament, and they don't. I don't think they necessarily have national title upside, but I think that they can make a run, which will be exciting for Lexington. But yeah, I agree with you It's very sad that we're already at November fourteenth. Midway through November, it flies by. The good thing is this weekend it's pretty good the NFL. Last week it was pretty boring, just the games.
Afternoon games were terrible. Yeah, there's only.
Yeah, the four Eastern games one for you have been They've been badly lately. But this weekend we have some pretty good games. I mean, Chargers, Bengals, Bill's Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens.
So it looks like I could see the nine. I could see nine or Seattle being entertaining too.
Yeah, I think some Seahawks will be good too, especially if Metcalf plays.
I think you practice. I saw yesterday on Wednesday and Thursday, but I bet he plays.
Yeah, I I like the forty nine are What scares me is I'm I'm gonna bet Seattle if Metcalf plays, it's a good spot for them. You know you're gonnaet. They get the right tackle back, they should be fully healthy on defense. They get two weeks to repair just coming back across country. I expect, you know. I think the buy is very valuable for the Seattle teams. They have a new staff who I respect their head coach McDonald and Grubb. So I think they'll have a really good game plan here. It's kind of an all in effort. What does scare me a bit is that the forty Niners are very close to to like breaking out and starting and we'll start to blow out some teams. I don't honestly know if this is the spot, but like they're eventually they're gonna start scoring in the red zone.
They have owned They have owned this team with Gino Smith, with Pete and now Ryan Groub. I mean they they fucking destroyed Geno Smith. They're five and er against them.
Yeah, no, that's true. But I mean the first time they played Seattle's in a bad spot. I mean it was a short week after a short week before that. They had all kinds of injuries. They were missing four defensive starters. You know, they're right tackle, so they should be in better shape. And this version of Seattle isn't the same defense at least schematically that Shanahan would just rip up. But the forty Niners are close, like they're gonna start scoring in the red zone there and then this is usually when they turn it on. But they just as right now they're just not doing all the little things, which is which is preventing them from really blowing anybody out. Like their special teams are really bad.
No, they're terrible. I mean really bad.
He made that kick because otherwise he's good. He was getting cut.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, I you know, I had the Niners last week on Sunday. I know, but you can feel it early with them when it's like, oh, something's a little off. I I do think adding McCaffrey back and he looks pretty good, and even his quotes like I feel fine, ready to go, we didn't treat him any different, you know. I that addition to go with Mason, if you get him healthy, it's a pretty good one two combination. Juwan Jennings being back as a game changer for them. But yeah, some they've just been something's just been a little off. One thing will be interesting against Seattle is Bosa, who you know, looked like Lawrence Taylor in that Seattle game. He had hurt in practice last week. He had a hit pointer and even he said it was like really really uncomfortable. He's never really had that in before. And he was a little off in the Tampa game. No, so I mean, if he's one hundred cent healthy, he's just a menace for Seattle and for whatever reason, Like you can watch games with Gino. This year is a bad example because Gino's played just kind of turned into a pumpkin against some good teams, like look really bad in big spots against the Rams, against the Bills, against the Niners. But you can watch him and like, go, damn, Gina looks excellent, and then against the Niners he looks like a guy that everyone used to make fun of. So like if they get if they get a capable quarterback, you know, DK just a problem. I don't care. The Niners have good dbs, but that's a tough cover. But if he plays shitty like he did in that game at home on Thursday, like they just have no shot, that they have no shot, and that's great. I feel bad. Like I've been rooting for Ryan Grubb for a while. They show some clips sometimes when he's coaching, his hands go over his head. When Gino does something dumb, it's like they're a team. We talk about a lot of these teams about looking for a quarterback this offseason, whether it's trading up in the draft or doing something bold. Like to me, they're a team to keep an eye on. I mean, their GM sniffed around when he had Russell Wilson. Remember he tried to trade him to the Browns for Josh Allen. Like if you're like, oh damn, they've traded up to number two to get cam Ward, which might be crazy or whatever, but they're eventually going to do something bold.
Yeah, I agree. I think with this staff too, that kind of would fit their their moo. But for this weekend, Yeah, metcalf is he's paramount the Seahawks. The shot Without him against I mean almost against it and against most teams, but especially the Kaudy Uners, you need his you need his explosiveness. He still leads the NFL and deep targets and he's missed the past couple of games. And then his ability to take the top off the defense opens up everything else. Without him, Uh, it's it's a mess. So that's certainly something to keep an eye on.
Well, let's just dive right into some of the main events. I mean, like you said, we have some fantastic matchups on paper today. I mean these are could be Super Bowl defining matchups. Right when it comes to seedings. I would just hit me. You know, if you were the Bills, you would have been you would rather have the Chiefs win that game in dramatic fashion, so there's still nine to zero and they still have a buffer over you. Then lose that game, and then you know, you lose two straight games. All of a sudden, you have the same record as the Buffalo Bills, and depending on what happens with the Steelers, all of a sudden, you're looking at the Chiefs. You've had this great season, you have the same amount of losses. If you were to lose in Buffalo as potentially Pittsburgh and obviously Buffalo, and it'd be a problem. But now it's like, even if you lose this game, like whatever, we still got a little buffer, which actually is good for Buffalo, who needs to keep winning for the seating. I think I told you last week clearly, and I think everyone agrees that this team is it's you. It's hard to be critical of them because it's fucking remarks. When's the last time they lost? Christmas? Christmas Eve? Yeah? And I think over fifteen they've won fifty team straight games, right, including the playoffs, they've been I heard Nick wright say this. They've been an underdog in five of those you know, the Niners is a good example. Obviously twice all those you know, the Bills and the Ravens playoff games, and then in this game. But like, I actually, in a weird way, don't view it as disrespect. I don't think anyone thinks they're not like some in the midst of their dynasty. They're just a flawed great. Like they have some issues. They struggle to score, and I think we all saw that coming in the Buffalo game, or I mean in the Denver game that like there's a pretty good spot for Denver. Now I didn't think it would be that close, but they, you know, great play at the end. My taking this like I kind of just think, you know, are they more likely to pull out this game and then lose to Caroline or some crazy game, or they just inevitably just gonna lose to a good team, right, because if they lose to a good team, then I throw away my theory of them losing to Carolina the following week, Right, I bet you are with me on that. But like this does feel like at Buffalo. I don't know, Buffalo has played them well before, in the regular season. Yeah, I can see them losing. So I mean, I don't love minus two and a half, you know, Yeah, I wish it was a little like one. But I don't know. I just feel like, if you tell me Buffalo wins this game like thirty to twenty, I think I think that's pretty realistic. And I don't even think that's an indictment on the Chiefs. I still like them to have a very good chance to win Super Bowl.
Yeah. I had the Bill circle there for this game to beat the Chiefs. But look, I bet the forty nine ers minus one when we talk about that against the Chiefs, and I would bet it again. I mean that all that receivers got hurt in the beginning of the game that closed minus two and a half. And now you're talking with the Bills are minus I had the forty nine Ers power to ahead of the Bills, and the Bills are dealing with injuries ahead of time. We know about the injuries now, which is very concerning because I do think I mean, this Chiefs team that, uh, they can't keep getting away with this. They've I mean they've won six or seven one possession games they beat you know, they beat the Bucks in overtime, you win that coin toss, You beat the Broncos on a blocked field. What is this the mac midweek action?
Did you see the staff like them compared to the I think it was like the seven pats that they threw, you know, early November. Already have more close games than that team did all season long.
Yeah, I mean you go back, and they've also benefited from a ton of injuries. Like teams losing offensive linemen, this forty nine is losing all their receivers. They played the Bucks without Godwin and Evans. I mean, I could go on and on and on.
I do you think the forty nine ers are a bad example though, because they fucking always beat them. They beat them season.
With you lose all your receivers and then what your game plan was? That too? Like your game plan goes out the window. They just had no chance. Where I think that matters is that I think the Chiefs second is very vulnerable and how many people are aware because if you look at the numbers, they look really good, but they lost the Jerry Snead in the offseason. Then they lost Jalen Wattson, who's playing is one of the best corners in the NFL, and his backup is terrible. So your secondary, now, I think, is extremely vulnerable if you play a competent fully healthy passing attack, which I mean they haven't since Burrow Burrow tore him apart. I mean, even the Falcons are moving the ball and then in should have won and they had two starting offensive lineman get hurt in the first half of that game, so I think the second is very vulnerable. So I'm like Josh Allen, this is the spot. But the problem is the Bills aren't fully healthy. You have you're gonna be without Coleman and I don't We're recording this on a Thursday. I Kinkaid is trending toward not playing, and Amari Cooper might not play, and if he does, is gonna have a cast. And then you're starting right tackle. Spencer Brown's dealing with swelling and he doesn't know if he's going to go. And that's the key is that you have to be able to protect. And the Bills have a really good pass protecting unit up front, but if they don't have the right tackle to drop up, this replacement is pretty big. And then you don't have Kincaid you don't have Cooper, you don't have Coleman. I mean, what are we doing here? And this lins two and a half and you're going up against the Chiefs who are twelve one and one against the spread under Mahomes is an underdog twelve one and one pretty remarkable. The only loss of the enough, as you alluded to, was against the Bills two years ago when the Bills were thick minus two in Kansas City and one twenty four to twenty. But I can't get here. I wanted to bet the Bills. I think the Bills win if they're relatively healthy, but I have to keep an eye on the injury report because if they're not without if they're without Kincaid, Coleman, Cooper and their right tackle, and the Chiefs run the I think is legitimately and realistically improved. Uh, it's tough to go against my Homes. Think two and a half here.
That one the Cooper injury. Obviously, you know it's a plug and play player who's really good and then he hurts his wrists and just kind of been in my A is not an ideal situation for them, righteah.
And if he plays with a cast or I don't than he can't catch Allen's rockets, Like I don't know you it's tough. So I agree with you that if the Bills win, I mean, if the Chiefs win, the spot is next week Panthers off the by I.
Mean, do you get a number to be bigger than the Jags at the lines right now? Plus four plus thirteen on DraftKings, it is, right, the biggest line of the year. Does that line eclipse that or not? Really?
Chief probably not because it's in the year offense.
Could you see that being like eleven twelve?
I mean the Chiefs. It's hard like the Chiefs, and then it's like not an indoor Let's say Panthers are coming off, but bye, I would make it. Yeah, some are somewhere around Ken and I yeah a half eleven.
Okay, you've you've made me nervous on the Bills. The injuries are a problem. Let's let's go to the other heavyweight fight. You've topped me this over the years. This is just primetime Tomlin at home as a dog. I mean, they you know, you watch them last week, and really since Russell's been there, they just can't really be argued. There's just a new element to their passing game. He's more willing to throw it to. I mean, George Pickens has dominated since he's got in the game winner to Mike Williams, who just showed up. They lose high Smith, but they had just traded like that. I think that Preston Smith trade for nothing. Actually, they gotta feel a lot better about that coming into this week, right, And you know, this game is just their records are kind of whether they were both with zero and zero or whether this was week seventeen and they were to know each it doesn't matter. I mean, this thing is gonna be a fucking war zone. I just how do you not take the Steelers plus three in this spot? I mean, the Ravens pass defense has been atrocious. The one thing with the Steelers that Russell got there, their running backs have looked really dynamic. I feel like since I don't know if they're a little healthier, Na She's I think played the best football of his career like these last four weeks. Jalen clearly looks healthy, you know better than anyone. It is hard. The one thing the Ravens do do is play well against the run. But I would imagine Russell's lollipops outside the numbers, like they're going to be pretty aggressive. I don't know if it's quite Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, but throwing the ball as something that they definitely feel more competent doing. This is a huge game for Baltimore, right because if the Steelers win, and essentially have they have two losses and they've beat you and you got four, I'm obviously very confident that the Ravens probably end up being the five seed. I guess depending on what happens with the Chargers, it could be the six, but it'd be a big spot because of that that Raider game would really come back to bite you in the ass. I think there's added motivation here for Baltimore just given the record, let alone obviously the opponent and your bit of rivalry. But I like the Steelers plus a gay Honestly, I kind of like him to win this game.
Yeah, I can't believe taking the points here. Toman is a home dog in his career twenty six and one against the spread, and if you look at this rivalry since Harball arrived in Baltimore in two thousand and eight, in this matchup when either team is favored by three or more, they have gone the favorite has gone two eighteen and three against the spread. That's say one more time, two wins, eighteen losses, and three pushes as a favorite or three and more. That's a ten percent cover rate. So underdogs of three or more in this matchup since two thousand and eight of at least a field goal eighteen two and three. Harball himself as a favorite of three or more is oh ten and two is never covered as a favorite of three or more. And if you look at this, how close this matchup has been. They've played thirty two regular season games since Harball has arrived. Twenty six have been decided by one possession, over half by three or less. Over those thirty two games, they're separated by twelve total points, average score nineteen point six to nineteen point two. There's so much familiarity. Yeah, it's it's insane. There's so much familiarity, there's so much hate. It'll and just always finds a way to be close. Lamar Jackson has also struggled against the Steelers more than why do you think that is? Well, they have I mean the number one. There's familiarity so like his speed is not gonna shock them, you know. Shot Like that's Lamar's record versus the NFC is so good. The Steelers usually have a good defensive game plan. They also have a really good defensive game plans for more mobile quarterbacks, which you saw last week against Daniels, who didn't really do much. He had his worst game of his career. I mean the score won't show it, but he didn't do much in that game. Lamar's one in three. He's missed some games with injuries, but he's won in three against the Steelers. Four touchdowns, seven interceptions, five fumbles, fifty nine percent completion rate, sixty six passive rating, sacked twenty times. So you also have those it's the high Smith that we missed a bit, but they do have some depth there, and you mentioned they added Smith, but his loss does heard of it. But you have those edge rushers.
He's good and really good at there. He might be the best second rusher in the league, you know.
Yeah, so that's not immateial, but they yeah, they know how to get after quarterbacks and they know how to blitz mobile quarterbacks. So yeah, they just they seen the Avamar's number. Now I will say so, I wouldn't blame you for taking the points here, and I'm a Ravens fan. I also like the under. I think this is too high for raven Steelers game at like forty eight and a half forty nine. The Ravens offense is like it's trending towards best of all time territory. But like I just mentioned, Steelers know how to defend this offense, and the Ravens they have the best run defense in the NFL. That's like what the Steelers want to base everything off of. And this the Ravens have major issues in the secondary, particularly at safety and on the back end defending in the middle of the field. The Steelers don't throw over the middle of the field like russ Is just there's just nothing there. It's a void. You never had to run the ball and then toss it down the sidelines. It's not the most sustainable offense. They've been really good hitting those long deep shots, but that's not been the Ravens weakness down the sidelines. But it's on the note which does scare me a bit, is that Kyle Hamilton. You don't know if he's gonna play. It's one of the best defenders in the NFL. You can use him at safety. They use them at edge, linebacker, slot corner, so he would be missed. But I think that this lot stak high stakes, a lot of familiarity. I think this total is too high. Even with how well the Ravens offense has played and how well the Steelers offense is played of late, I think this game will probably be in the low twenties. Like I'm going to say, like twenty three twenty somebody.
Well, Hamilton, who I think if as we're sitting here today, I think it would be safe to assume he doesn't play. Is that fair? Yeah, he's the second lead He's he's our second leading tackler. And you could say, well, their secondary is terrible. He makes a lot, but he clearly plays near the line of scrimmage a lot, and it's just an excellent player around the lot, you know. I mean, he's an incredible open field tackler. He can shift essentially into a linebacker, and he's essentially the second linebacker with Roquan Smith a lot in the run game. So you remove him, you know, Patrick Queen is now on the Steelers, right, So I mean that was does that change their ability to stop the run against a team that has been running the ball pretty effectively. Like that is at a little you know advantage Steelers with with him out of the game.
Yeah, it'll hurt, it aren't in multitude of ways just not having him on the field. He's just such a playmaker, like defending screens, rushing the passer on like.
He's just stu I mean, he's like a Hall of Famer.
Yeah, so that's that's certainly something the watch. But taking the points just what you do in this matchup.
Do you think this is if Tomalin, if they win this game, they just win this game, would you feel confidence, say the Ravens are probably not going to win the division? Or do you think it's still there's a lot of football left to be played and you don't totally trust Russ Or is that pretty big, insurmountable couple of games.
No, I think that they they would sell sell a pretty good shot. I mean the Steelers there, their schedule now gets difficult. I mean they've they've played some clowns all.
Year, and.
Like now they play all their division games now. So you have the Bengals twice, the Ravens twice. You have the Watson, which yeah, won't won't be easy rivalry game, and then you're not on divisional games are against are at Philly and home against the Chiefs, so.
It's not the chief is Chiefs game the last game of the season now second to last, which okay, so the Chief's still playing Chiefs probably still playing for something that cames on Netflix, by the way, and.
On Christmas.
Christmas. Yeah, so yeah, I don't think they're completely done. They'll also get them back. They'll get the cheap they'll get the don't get the Ravens, they'll get the the Raves will get the Steeers at home later in the year, the game before that Chiefs game. So yeah, they won't be completely done. This Steers schedule is brutal the rest of the way.
Okay, I felt pretty good about this. I don't. Yeah, I gotta be careful with these, but I got I got pretty aggressive on a little afternoon parlay last Sunday, and it was I felt pretty good about the Eagles killing the Cowboys, you know, about about noon my time, and I was looking at that Jets cardinal line. I'm like, I'm just shortened the Jets. I don't know, like, I didn't expect the Cardinals to look that good. I didn't even Hell, you don't even know quite what you're gonna get. Maybe they are just good this year. But I was like, I'm just I'm gonna hammer Cardinals, Eagles's let's fucking roll. And it was awesome. It was it felt good. No sweat, no sweat. I mean, that's that's as good. Honestly, it's not even it's fun once the money comes in. But I do like a little action, you know about you know, I like being on the edge of my seat. And I was not lsu do that to me on Saturday night. It's like it was over before I could even have any fun. It just makes you mad. But I do think the philosophy moving forward, if you're just like, unless you're the let's say Panthers, Giants, this version of Cowboys, there might be four or five teams that I would just stay away, but basically anyone else if you're giving me, like over a touchdown the Colts and not listen Anthony Richson's back, Why couldn't Anthony Richdons and Jonathan Taylor? Why doesn't Shane Sykein just steal the Malik Willis Green Bay Packers Week two game plan and just go, these guys are gonna have a combined thirty five carries and we're gonna shove it down the Jets throat. I just don't see how you don't hammer the Colts here in the spot, Like, I'm just betting against the Jets, and I think if you had done that, someone DM me said that he did it in the preseason because they were favored in like thirteen of the seventeen games or whatever, and he put one hundred dollars on everyone in August and he's up like seven hundred dollars. So it's like, I just think, if you just take the logic, just bet against the Jets, so you could argue that's one of my favorite bets on the board is Colts plus four at the Jets. Who I don't know if they went one, two, three can coon, but they feel like you get down seven to nothing. They got quit written all over them.
Yeah. I actually I played the Jets last season, one of the worst NFL bets I've ever made, and they look like they credit but twenty six messed tackles that was.
Their defense is objectively bad.
Right, Yeah, the defensive front is way worse the injuries at linebacker. I think that the the change to Anthony Richardson, who one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks I've ever seen, is a positive for this particular matchup, and because the Colts. If you look at the data, the Colts run game is so much more efficient when Richardson is in the game of quarterback compared to Flacco. Look at Tailor's efficiency numbers. They go through the roof. Why, Well, you have a quarterback you have to worry about that can run, not the statue of Joe Flacco. So and that's how you want to attack this jetscene. They can't stop the run. And a November game when you're out of it, are they really gonna like? It's probably be a lot more mistackles? And you're right, where are they? Mentally? This is a team that was expected to compete for a Super Bowl. The missing piece was Aaron Rodgers, a healthy Aaron Rodgers. Well that hasn't been the case. There's their defense is falling apart. Robert Salad must be just sipping wine. Oh my watching this.
I mean, sauce looks pretty bad. I mean the tackle, but he fell off on Trey McBride was like, this is supposed to be one hundred million dollar corner. I mean, that's that's all.
It's all falling apart. So I and yeah, where that. Mentally, there's no leadership, there's no direction, there's no identity on offense, and now you're sitting at three and seven. You're essentially cooked, Like, yeah, do they show up here? I don't know. I expect the Colts to show now. The one concern I have with the Colts is Bernard Raymond, their starting left tackle, who went out with an injury last week, and then his backup came in, Gon Calvis and gave up a sack strip that helped flip that game, sap strip bumble that the Bills recovered. I think he's gonna miss so he could have the Colts had other injuries in the offensive. You got have three rookies starting on the offensive line and a rookie quarterback or I mean basically rookie quarterback. We started four games last year on the road.
Do you think that's part of why they're putting richardson back? Is Like, obviously the running, but just if we have bad offensive linemen, we need a guy that can move. Flacco can't move at all.
Yeah, they've handled this whole thing terribly. Because I have a lot of respect for Shane Stiking, but like last week he said he doesn't know the future, then this week he said, Anthony Richardson is our franchise quarterback and is the future.
Like it's been, it's been weird. It's been weird.
I don't know if like Ers is driving this bus, which would make more sense, but because it doesn't seem to have really his bus is kind of shaky.
Well do you agree? Once he tapped out and then like Ryan Kelly and the guys, like I do think they're it was out of their hands. Like I think the guys were like this fucking bullshit, right, Yeah, give him one game and it was clear like Flacco might not really have and just go back to him. Would you have put him played him against the Bills last week? Is that what you're saying?
Yeah, I mean, I or just the way that they handled there, like a week you know, Flacco is our guy. I mean maybe they're just there trying to, you know, squash all the questions in controversy. But yeah, we'll see how Richardson responds like mentally with his his confidence and how he looks. But the game plan here has to be the Jets run defense is legitimately terrible. We have Taylor Richardson run, run, run and run some more. And and just if this Jets defense is in quiitmo, then the Colts are going to win this game out right pretty easily just doing that. So yeah, I don't mind the Colts here as well. My my favorite be my favorite bet on the car for what it's where there is Browns plus one. I think off the buy. You you look, the NFL injuries have been so bad this year. You know one team does no injuries that I can trust this week. I shouldn't say I trust them, but I know I trust Their injury situation is the Browns. Browns have no one on their injury report.
Now.
They did trade aways at Aaria Smith j Okay, they're all pro linebacker is on ir but their defense is still pretty good. Will be healthy out of the by. Their offensive line is fully healthy. Nick Chubb out of the buy should be fully oppy. You can run on the Saints. Janis going back to New Orleans. I think he'll have He'll be given some crazy, weird speeches. They'll have this team fired up. And the Saints just they're they're not any good. I met them last week, talked about it the CA new coach bump with the Riz. But they were very lucky in that game. I don't know how sustainable the offensive chucking deep to mvs's who missed three field goals. They gave up five hundred yards of offense.
And looks like Ken Shamrock or something doesn't.
Amazing, it's amazing, Like I'm a big fan of him. But I think it's a good spot for the Browns. They say that no receivers, they'd no d backs left, their defense is terrible. And then here's the thing. One of the reasons I bet Car last week is that I'm like, look, I know he has no receivers, like legitimately it was it was MVS. And I don't I forget who their second leading receiver was last week, like non tight end or running back. But he's not gonna under pressure. The Falcons can't get any pressure. Well that's different. Now he is offensive line and he's going against Myles garretting up against a rookie. The Browns are gonna bring pressure they can get pressure, and then what what what's car are gonna do? Like, and you're gonna rely on nvs getting open down. You're not gonna have time.
To get you for him to just run on the team. When I looked up at the box, it's all I'm hit the bomb. I I honestly didn't wasn't sure who it was.
It's yeah, I mean that was that was amazing, But I don't know how sustainable it is. I mean, it's cars are a bad spot right now. His offensive line's hurt. And then a lave's on I R. Shaheed is on I for the year? Yeah, out for the year. Bove means looked, okay, he's on I R. You're down to Mason Tipton, who guy went to.
Yale, never of him?
And then MBS and then this guy Jermaine Jackson and doesn't have a catch. He's from Idaho, five to seven guy, he might be starting, And then like Cedric Wilson, like that's those are your receivers. That's the one of the worst receiving corps I've ever seen in the NFL. So uh, and then you're gonna be under pressure? Is your offensive line isn't healthy, So I like, I like the Brown Skits. But back to your point, I I think it's perfectly fine to make the Jets prove that they care and that they can win by margin er that will win by more than a field goal.
What's your take on the interim OC bump for Bears five and a half hosting the Packers.
There's the Bears and then there's the Raiders too. I think the Raiders are gonna go super run heavy, even though I don't think that'll work. So I don't mind like betting.
Both interim ocs are getting you know, the Raiders are getting over a touchdown and the Bears that's actually been bet down. It was like six and a half now it's five and a half. Uh, both of them. I guess the Raiders on the road Miami coming off short week, Raiders coming off of bye Bears just kind of a joke. The Packers coming off of bye huh yeah.
And Lafloy has been really good off the Bye Love should be healthier. Road favorites off the buy historically have been really good about sixty percent against the spread, but this line was too high just on the surface, like power numbers by like six, six and a half at Chicago, Like that's super high. But do you want to back the Bears. So that there's two new ocs this week, I think both are conducive potentially to unders in. I think the Raiders is gonna go super runny. That's what Antwonop Pierce wants to do. It's like play defense, run the ball, kickfield goals. So I assume that they want to go even more run heavy, but they just can't run the ball. They also have offensive line injuries. In regards to the Bears, we saw I mean gets he was terrible, but a lot of this passed to be on Caleb. He's and the offensive line has had injuries. That's something to watch that they could be without a couple guys, so we'll have to keep an eye there. But He's He's, Caleb has kind of lost the plot. And if you look at I mean, you sacked nine times against the Paid, its team is not getting pressure and part some of that was the offensive line, but a lot of that was him holding the ball too long and not taking the easy throw, and some of that was the play design as well. So with their new offensive coordinator, he was at Carolina last year and when he took over, they went a bit slower. But there's there's a there is like some element of surprise here. Even though at the Packers. He saw him last year at Carolina it didn't go well. It wasn't he wasn't a great play caller. But I don't think it can be much worse. The keys to watch here are one and them barrass For what it's worth, they if they're zero to ten straight up and against the spread. Over their past ten meetings against the Packers, they haven't won or covered one time, and they've been awful in the division. Part of that is that they're just at a coaching disadvantage every week.
It's hard to do in these division games. I bet if we just did a study on all the shitty teams over the last ten games against divisional opponent, it's one.
The only one that happens is uh, Broncos Chiefs. But the Broncos obviously covered last week. But the Broncos, the Chiefs have won like, man, when was the last time the Chiefs beat the Broncos? Uh? I want to say, like.
You're saying the Broncos have lost to the Chiefs, like fourteenth straight times or something.
Yeah, I think it's like ten years in a row.
Belichick against the Jets for a while.
Yeah, So, I mean it's just stunning how much they've gone to do the Bear. I think you do not have to assume the Bears show up and care. It's like a the division rival at home against the Packers. But they've looked. I don't know what's going on there.
They got some they got some Jets vibes to them. It's different, and it's not like they're old in quitting. It just feels like they're young and kind of like DJ Moore hates Caleb. They got some weird shit going on.
Yeah, there's rumors that some of the players want to tale benched. There's their whole Dj More saga. The then you have the Stevenson thing when he was taunting the crowd, and everything is falling apart since that play. And then they went out to Arizona, got their doors blown off. They look like they quit. He would assume coming home against the Patriots, but they would bounce back. No, they look like they quit there too. There was no there was nothing they didn't I mean, it was embarrassing.
So from gave Nate Davis a bunch of money last year. He's been injured a bunch and it was like being healthy scratches, they just cut them like that's your classic, Like hey, we're showing people this is not tolerated clearly, like he wasn't buying in. It's like, yeah, a little too late there, guys.
Yeah. And I also don't think that they like the players like love Eberflus, But last week, I mean, that was one of the most embarrassing efforts I've ever seen from a team. They average two point four yards per play. That's like, this isn't a good Patriots Stephen. They have all kinds of injuries too. That's like like Kent State with a fourth string quarterback on a rainy night and you know, on the road in the MAC on a Wednesday, like that two point four yards per play with all those weapons that you have, I know you had offensive line injuries nine sacks. I mean that is so the line is just on the surface is too high. Like I've had plenty of success over twenty years been in the NFL, just bilows sell high. The general principle, you know, these teams are never as bad as or as good as they look, the NFL market tends to overreact to these data points. But sometimes there are teams that it's just like, yeah, bad vibes, like I couldn't bet the pack, I couldn't lay six here on the road, just based on where my numbers are. But yeah, there's just sometimes there's his teams that you're better off staying away from. There was many times in the past. It took me a while to learn that there's many times in the past. I used to lose a ton of money. Oh wea's betting these bad Browns teams like the Freddy Kitchens and then going back and that we're just disasters. But my numbers would say to play them, and they just would never still never cover. The Bears might just be in a really bad spot and then if they get behind early, that's when it could just get ugly. So I don't think either offensive coordinator this week is going to provide a huge bump, but I think both could. I think the Bears defense will show up, so I don't mind the under there. I think it'll be low scoring. The Bears offense are now it is just broken, and then you have a new play caller. How much are you fixing in a week. The offensive line still has injuries, Caleb still looks lost. You have all these guys run happy. I I don't know. The Bears are nothing, but I would bet the under if I had it at the game.
Like the Raiders plus seven jumped out to me. You got them coming off of bye? You got Miami short week? Are they as good as the team we just saw on defense? I mean the Rams offense is a little off right now. I mean they've scored one offensive touchdown over the last couple of games. I mean one of those touchdowns against Seattle was a pick six. But I would just struggle betting on the Raiders. You know, It's like, what you're going seven points? Like little boost. It's like I just don't think I could do. It's just a stay away, even though I feel that's the bet. You know, Like I kind of like the Titans this week against Minnesota, but it's like, I am I really doing this? I have been on the Titans too many times.
Yeah, it's like it's donning that this year, there's it's there, there are I'm having my worst NFL season and forever because there's some of these teams that I've been backing in spots, and I do somebody to catch up to how bad they owner. I mean, the Titans have covered one game all year like this. This stuff just doesn't.
If you watch him, they don't. They're not that bad. You're like they should be able to could And.
I mean, but I've never seen this many bad teams. The teams that are just in disarray in a conference in the AFC, which was so strong, Like the Tits are disarrayed because what are they doing at the quarterback position? Like they don't know? The Jags disarray.
Well, like do you think there's value there? You know, getting almost two touchdowns? That's a insane line. They just lost twelve to seventeen to Minnesota.
Yeah, they lost. They lost twelve to seven. They should have lost or twelve seven nothing. They should have lost thirty nothing in that game. I mean, Darnold threw three red zone picks. The Vikings had thirty first downs to Jacksonville's ten. The yardage was four h two to one forty. The Jags average three yards per play. It was ugly. They just got really lucky.
You see Doug after the game on Mac Jones' interception where he's like.
Uh, yes, that was he looks checked out. This This could be it for him. I mean the Buys coming up too, that would be the time. I couldn't bet the Jags here. No that the lines have been a wagon in these spots, but I'm not laying thirteen and a half. That's that's ridiculous that number. But but the Raiders, Jags, Titans, Jets, Browns, Patriots, Colts all in some form or fashion, like what's going on with the franchise right now, that's basically half the AFC. So yeah, it would be Raiders are nothing, but it's a stay away. The Titans. Yeah, I think the line is a bit too high, but I can't play them this week from matchup perspective because Will Levis against the blitz and against pressure has been a disaster. He's the lowest rated quarterback against the blitz and against pressure. Well, the Vikings lead the NFL and pressure and blitz rate. So him against Flores, how many mistakes is he gonna make? Now? You could just have a Sam Donald Pumpkin game where he's just matching Levis and they're just going pumpkin for pumpkin, and then you'll have a shot. But I can't trust Levis, Yeah against Flores and the blitz and the pressure, and he's not gonna be able to rely on the run. Like that's Tennessee's able to move the ball, but when they can run on the rummy, you can't really run on Minnesota. You gotta have a competent quarterback and you gotta be able to deal with pressure to attack their secondary, which is their weakness. The Titans don't have that, so that's a pass. I actually don't mind betting the Rams on the bounce back in New England. Sean McVay has been superb on short breast and then one against the spread. It's like a good bounce backspot for them if they're getting embarrassed in a month and I know it's short week across the country, but they're gonna get a ton of pressure. I mean, Jared Verse, he's I mean the fact that you gotta give Snead and the front office crewd they keep finding this defensive lineman and they don't have a ton of draft capital and they've been able to hit on all of them. Yard versus leads the NFL and pressure rate, Yeah, they're gonna be able to get pressure on man, I think force them into mistakes, and I don't think that the Patriots defense can slow down the Rams. The Rams, like the fort Guns, are eventually gonna start scoring in the red zone now that they have cup Nikua and a fully and we have a lot of data that says with this offense fully healthy, they're really good. Last week, you get two of your offensive linement back. It was a mass up front. They just didn't spend I think more they got full game, they got game reps. Still look better this week. It's not a Patriots defense that gets pressure unless they're playing the Bears. So I like the Rams to bounce back.
But I wrote that game down as well. The Rams defense is good. I mean you just watch team speed. Yeah, they're they're physical, they tackle well. But for whatever reason that that offense is just off. Okay, I get you out of here on this. I looked at the College Sleigh. I really had nothing. Any Is there a game that you love on Saturday kind of a week week in terms of you know, high level matchups if you remove Georgia Tennessee, which honestly might not be great either. Carson Beck looks like shit, and Nico's injured. Not that he's been great either, but yeah, I don't know. I mean, one thing I did see, I mean, these odds aren't great relative to what you could have got five weeks ago, but I don't think you would have placed this bet five weeks ago is you can get Colorado to make the playoffs, which obviously just have to win out and win the Big Twelve Championship against against probably Yu. I bet on them. I had a decent sized wager on Saturday, so I was pretty dialed into that game. Obviously it was a little nervous early, but in a weird way, I was like, I feel pretty good this team can I think they're pretty good, you know, especially relative to the Big Twelve. Like their D line's good. Obviously offensively, I mean everyone you know Shador and Travis Hunter, but number fourteen, the wide receivers good. They're like a real team, you know. I think people are still like if you just watch them start to finish over the last three or four weeks, I mean relatively Big twelve. Could would they be beaten like Penn States and of course not, you know, but can they beat BYU in a championship game? If they get there? I kind of like their chance. I think plus one to forty it's kind of tasty.
Yeah, the problem with Colorado and yeah, they're playing well. They have arguably like two top five draft picks who could say that on offense, and their other receivers are really good. That they brought in the passing attack is awesome. Their defense, you know, obviously have Travis Hunter. It's not the most talented group, but they're really well coached. The defensive coordinator, who you know, wasn't getting a lot of hype, Livingston, He's done a tremendous job and if you look at their numbers in the second half, the adjustice that he's making are tremendous. And just from a schimat at last week against Texas Tech, Texas Tech runs this you know, modified air raid, which you never ever want to play man to man against. I mean this goes back to Leach and even before him, Like the way to beat them is you would just you know, drop eight. The Colorado plays man like and press most of the time, like seventy five eighty percent of the time came out. They were playing their man early Texas Tech was moving the ball and Texas Tech went up in that game, and you know they were trying to blitz. Some don't want to blitz this Texas Tech team either. They had justin quick and then they went more zone. The rest of the game stopped blitzing, were able to get pressure, and then Texas Tech couldn't really do anything. So they're really well coached on the defensive. And then you got Warren Sapp bringing some juice to that defensive line. He's not fun fun to watch on the sidelines. The problem with Colorado is they don't win any tiebreakers, so they have to win out their schedule and conference is so bad, like if they get any if they get any tiebreakers, it's gonna come down to strength of like if they end up time with Kansas State, they lost to Kansas State. If it's with anyone else, it'll be sure. But they went out there in if they went out there in now. But the reason I bring that up is there's a team that's playing probably better than anyone in the Big twelve who I like this weekend, but I bet last weekend. I've bet the weekend before. I bet them three straight weeks. I bet him again. I bet him this week it's Kansas I bet him. This weekend'st Peu. I think they beat Ya. I've been hi plus three and a half. I think they're still catching three. That's fine. And then next week they host Colorado. I think there's a good chance that Kansas beats them. That game will be really good. It'll be a shootout the Kansas. This Kansas offense Early Dan, their quarterback Jalen Dan, who was playing like at a Lamar level right now over the past threeks's. He's fully healthy. He looks like Lamar when he's playing like their offense, it's it's humming right now. He's fully healthy. And this is a Kansas team that's been the unluckiest team in the country. The Uyu has been the luckiest. Like UA, you should have lost last week they should have lost to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma State in Utah should have won at buy You aren't probably don't even going to bowls. Kansas has been the unluckiest team. So if you look at their record, you're like, why is this team getting bet down to you know, plus three plus two and a half. They're three and six on the year. Well, they lost to Kansas State by two at Kansas State on like a safety and they gave up a touchdown late. They blew a late two touchdown lead with like three minutes to go. At West Virginia, they lost that ridiculous game to UNLB when there was a pick at the end of the first half and then un scored a touchdown. They had a pick six that cost him the game. At Illinois, this this seems lost every game by two, three one in like ridiculous fashion. They could easily few other bounces. They could easily be in first place in BYU have two or three losses. So this team and they're super motivated to get to a ball. They're really well coached Lance Laphold, so they're going to have a major say in this. That would be my only concern with Colorado. But I do think that if Colorado gets there, I'm looking at the look headlines the next week, cod It'll be like a I don't know, it'll be under a field goal.
You know It's funny is last week we went to lunch and I was like, you know what, let's get some midday cocktails on Saturday. So we went to a We went to this bar right across the street and they had all the TVs up and we go kind of sit on this like area where there are couches and like ten TVs up at this sports bar, and these people sitting next to us are all wearing Iowa State shit, And I was like, hey, can you turn on the Colorado game? Then I look Arrowhead Kansas Iowa State, and within ten minutes they were like I can just hear them, like what the fuck? They were getting worked dominated. Kansas look like a you know, a playoff team they made. They made Iowa State look like cal Paly. It was. It was pretty cool and I ended up watching a decent amount of game because we're talking about they look good.
Yeah. I was making jokes on Twitter that that's the best offense that anyone in had.
I wish they came back a little bit in that game because I remember coming back to my house and looking at the score and the final score is a little closer. Do they have a kind of a chance in the fourth quarter? We're not really no, I mean they were down like it was like eight or something. Yeah, Uh, Kansas to their defense is bad. So I mean Coylor Oddison score did, but what's working in Kansas's favors? You can run on them.
They do have too. They have two really good corners like Kobe Bryant will be drafted in mellow dots and but that's about it on their defense, so they're gonna but their offenses it's it's humming. So I like them. It's b Yu this week. That would be my only concern with car. But I don't hate the bat because I think if they played Uyu, which is the most likely scenario, they're they're gonna beat b y U. B Yu is they can't keep getting away with this. They're the Chiefs. Although the Chiefs are like the team that you trust to win, but b Yu, this is just some of these games that they've won this year are pretty crazy. And yeah, I would expect that game to be basically at coin flip Colorado k Kansas, Like from a line perspective, we'll be a really entertaining game to watch. Then, yeah, you have you have four top four teams on the road for the first that happens like once in the past ten years. But the problem is they're like off thirty point favorites. Yeah, that's probably my favorite of the bunch of the lines that are still around San Jose State.
If you want a game that likes you're a junkie.
Yeah. Against Boise I think that line's too high. They're catching two touchdowns. Bois has injuries on the offensive line. They lost their green dot to an injuries on crutches last week. At that safety, he's a really good player. You can pass on Boise. Santase State can throw the ball around Nick Nash. We want to talk about one of the most I mean, no one talks about. Everyone talks about gent Nick Nash. He's the nation's leading receiver. Is a guy who can go for two hundred on any night. He used to play quarterback at Santase State. Now he's playing receiver. He's gonna get He's gonna play in the NFL.
Uh.
This kid is a player. I don't think Boise is anyone who can cover him. They have another good receiver to Santase State. They can put a scare into Boise here at home catching two touchdown, I think that's too many points. This Boise State teams getting everyone's best effort every week. They're too inflated in the market. They have offensive line injuries. Their defense can be thrown on. Santase Steak can throw it. You want a CBS Sports neverck seven Eastern four Pacific Nick, you want to watch two of the best group of five players in the country, Ashton genty at running back, Nick Nash that wide receiver, Nations leading rusher versus Nations leading receiver. I think San Jose State has enough juice to keep that within too touch.
The Boise were to go down. What are the rules does a non Power four team have to get in? Like is just the highest ranked team or do you have to be in the top twenty five? Like who else would even be in the mix?
Yeah, it'd be the highest ranked non it's the highest ranked group of five conference champion, So.
So someone's guaranteed a spot.
Yeah, so you can throw out the mac Like if Pois loses this game but then wins them mount lest they could still get it. But you also gotta have tu lane if Tulane keeps winning and wins out Army, so you know Army. If they lose the Notre Dame, that shouldn't impact them to much. If they win the rest of their games to win the AAC, you could have an Army or two lane. And it comes down to like who will be rated to hire Army or two Lane or Boise. You're not gonna have anyone from the mac Louisiana maybe with one loss, but.
They so the committee would be rooting for Boise. With Gant, it's an easy story to sell.
Yeah. Or if it's like, uh, if an army was undefeated army, you gotta put them in the armies underfeed and they beat notre name next week. But uh, someone's guaranteed it, and Boise is definitely the front runner.
Okay, Stucky, Let's let's keep rolling. Enjoy the weekend. The best part about recording this on Thursday, it means almost Friday. Football is almost here for the weekend. So have a good one. Talk to you soon, bro, have a weekend. Brother.
I'll see you next week.
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