Welcome to Zero. I'm Oscar Boyd. This week you've probably seen new stories about a World Meteorological Organization study that says that the global average temperature for a single year is likely to exceed the one point five degrees celsius threshold sometime before twenty twenty seven. There's been a lot of discussion around what this all means. So for this short bonus episode of Zero, I'm sitting down with Acsha to understand the implications. Acua, Welcome to Zero.

Welcome to Zero. I'm Oscar Boyd. This week you've probably seen new stories about a World Meteorological Organization study that says that the global average temperature for a single year is likely to exceed the one point five degrees celsius threshold sometime before twenty twenty seven. There's been a lot of discussion around what this all means. So for this short bonus episode of Zero, I'm sitting down with Acsha to understand the implications. Acua, Welcome to Zero.

Nice to be here.

Nice to be here.

So, first off, why is the one point five degrees celsius number so important?

So, first off, why is the one point five degrees celsius number so important?

Well, one thing, because two hundred countries have agreed on it. The Paris Agreement, which was signed in twenty fifteen, had almost every country on the planet say that they will keep warming well below two degrees celsius and try to keep it below one point five degrees celsius. But it is a good question because both those targets are kind of arbitrary, and what do you mean by that? There is no scientific basis to say two degrees celsius is when the planet gets kirked and humans die. It's what was politically feasible and was seen to be politically feasible when discussions leading up to the Paris Agreement were taking place. Now, at that time, only two degrees celsius was on the radar, and then island nations got really angry because from their perspective, sea levels would rise so much that many of their countries would be entirely underwater, and so from their side, it was a complete no goo and they wanted a more ambitious goal. And because of that more ambitious goal, they landed with one point five degrees celsius. And from a scientific perspective, really every point one degree celsius matters, and so you want to avoid as much warming as possible. But we are also bound by international law, and that is currently the Paris Agreement.

Well, one thing, because two hundred countries have agreed on it. The Paris Agreement, which was signed in twenty fifteen, had almost every country on the planet say that they will keep warming well below two degrees celsius and try to keep it below one point five degrees celsius. But it is a good question because both those targets are kind of arbitrary, and what do you mean by that? There is no scientific basis to say two degrees celsius is when the planet gets kirked and humans die. It's what was politically feasible and was seen to be politically feasible when discussions leading up to the Paris Agreement were taking place. Now, at that time, only two degrees celsius was on the radar, and then island nations got really angry because from their perspective, sea levels would rise so much that many of their countries would be entirely underwater, and so from their side, it was a complete no goo and they wanted a more ambitious goal. And because of that more ambitious goal, they landed with one point five degrees celsius. And from a scientific perspective, really every point one degree celsius matters, and so you want to avoid as much warming as possible. But we are also bound by international law, and that is currently the Paris Agreement.

And international law can only work in kind of nice round numbers. It so happens, and that one point five degree celsius figure, that's become more and more important since the Paris twenty fifteen agreement, right it has.

And international law can only work in kind of nice round numbers. It so happens, and that one point five degree celsius figure, that's become more and more important since the Paris twenty fifteen agreement, right it has.

There was another United Nations report in twenty eighteen that showed that if you hit the one point five degree celsius goal versus only meeting the two degrees celsius goal, the world would be a much better place it will be trillions of dollars richer, the impacts on people will be much less, Agricultural productivities won't fall, your weather patterns won't be as extreme, and so aiming for one point five degrees celsius is a good idea, and the report helped us come up with net zero by twenty fifty, which has become a rallying cry across governments and corporations.

There was another United Nations report in twenty eighteen that showed that if you hit the one point five degree celsius goal versus only meeting the two degrees celsius goal, the world would be a much better place it will be trillions of dollars richer, the impacts on people will be much less, Agricultural productivities won't fall, your weather patterns won't be as extreme, and so aiming for one point five degrees celsius is a good idea, and the report helped us come up with net zero by twenty fifty, which has become a rallying cry across governments and corporations.

What does this new report from the WMO say.

What does this new report from the WMO say.

Well, it's a technical report, so I'll read out what the technical report says technically, okay, which is there is a sixty six percent likelihood that the annual average near surface global temperature will rise above one point five degrees celsius compared to pre industrial levels for at least one year between twenty twenty three and twenty twenty seven.

Well, it's a technical report, so I'll read out what the technical report says technically, okay, which is there is a sixty six percent likelihood that the annual average near surface global temperature will rise above one point five degrees celsius compared to pre industrial levels for at least one year between twenty twenty three and twenty twenty seven.

And so for people whose eyes have just gently glazed over, what does that mean in can of regular person.

And so for people whose eyes have just gently glazed over, what does that mean in can of regular person.

Speak, that there is a very high likelihood that sometime over the next five years there'll be one year when global average temperatures are higher than one point five degrees celsius, and that will be quite the jump from the previous record, which was set in twenty sixteen at one point two to eight degrees celsius.

Speak, that there is a very high likelihood that sometime over the next five years there'll be one year when global average temperatures are higher than one point five degrees celsius, and that will be quite the jump from the previous record, which was set in twenty sixteen at one point two to eight degrees celsius.

So if we cross this one year at one point five degree celsius threshold, does that mean that one of the two big goals of the Paris Agreement is moot.

So if we cross this one year at one point five degree celsius threshold, does that mean that one of the two big goals of the Paris Agreement is moot.

No, because the Paris Agreement is very clear the goal is to keep warming below one point five degrees celsius for the long term. So to breach the Paris Agreement goal, the global average temperature will have to exceed one point five degrees celsius consistently for many years for that to happen, A single year doesn't do it.

No, because the Paris Agreement is very clear the goal is to keep warming below one point five degrees celsius for the long term. So to breach the Paris Agreement goal, the global average temperature will have to exceed one point five degrees celsius consistently for many years for that to happen, A single year doesn't do it.

You mentioned twenty sixteen being the previous host this year on record that was a al Nino year? Is that what's driving this expected heat this time around as well?

You mentioned twenty sixteen being the previous host this year on record that was a al Nino year? Is that what's driving this expected heat this time around as well?

Well? Most of the heat we should know is coming from greenhouse gas emissions. The more fossil fuels we burn, the more cot be put into the atmosphere, the thicker the blanket on the planet, and the warmer it gets. So there is this background warming which continues to increase. But yes, there are other complicating factors that have planetary impacts which can both increase or decrease average temperatures. So for the last three years we've been in this lan Ninia phase, which is a complicated phenomena, but to simply understand it, it brings up a lot of cold water from deep in the Pacific Ocean, and that helps cool the planet compared to where average temperatures would have been otherwise, whereas al ninion does the opposite correct, and that means it exacerbates the warming, and that would be one reason why breaching the one point five degree celsius threshold becomes more likely.

Well? Most of the heat we should know is coming from greenhouse gas emissions. The more fossil fuels we burn, the more cot be put into the atmosphere, the thicker the blanket on the planet, and the warmer it gets. So there is this background warming which continues to increase. But yes, there are other complicating factors that have planetary impacts which can both increase or decrease average temperatures. So for the last three years we've been in this lan Ninia phase, which is a complicated phenomena, but to simply understand it, it brings up a lot of cold water from deep in the Pacific Ocean, and that helps cool the planet compared to where average temperatures would have been otherwise, whereas al ninion does the opposite correct, and that means it exacerbates the warming, and that would be one reason why breaching the one point five degree celsius threshold becomes more likely.

So one reaction I've seen to this reporting is it's only temporary, why should we care? So why do you think we should care? Well, the WMO reports are annual. There was one last year which said alarming things, and there will be one next year which we'll say more alarming things. So a single report doesn't change things. But it's the nature of news that we move from one outrage to another. However, climate change is this thing in the background that just keeps getting worse, and these reports are a good check on where things stand and a good moment to discuss why we are heading in that direction. And these reports actually provide details that are crucial. So one other technical thing it says is that there's a ninety eight percent chance, which in scientific term is an almost certainty, that over the next five years we will breach the twenty sixteen record of one point two eight degree celsius warming in a single year. It also says, for example, that the Arctic is now warming disproportionately more than the rest of the planet. Over the next five years, that warming is supposed to be as much as three times the global average, and that's bad because that will cause sea ice to melt, which will expose the ocean, which is darker, which will absorb more heat and make things worse. There's also information about precipitation patterns and that affects agricultural productivity, movement patterns, migration, droughts, and those are all things we should think about and worry about. So then the other reaction to this reporting is are we doing Is this a moment where we cross this figure for the first time and just important of everything that is to come.

So one reaction I've seen to this reporting is it's only temporary, why should we care? So why do you think we should care? Well, the WMO reports are annual. There was one last year which said alarming things, and there will be one next year which we'll say more alarming things. So a single report doesn't change things. But it's the nature of news that we move from one outrage to another. However, climate change is this thing in the background that just keeps getting worse, and these reports are a good check on where things stand and a good moment to discuss why we are heading in that direction. And these reports actually provide details that are crucial. So one other technical thing it says is that there's a ninety eight percent chance, which in scientific term is an almost certainty, that over the next five years we will breach the twenty sixteen record of one point two eight degree celsius warming in a single year. It also says, for example, that the Arctic is now warming disproportionately more than the rest of the planet. Over the next five years, that warming is supposed to be as much as three times the global average, and that's bad because that will cause sea ice to melt, which will expose the ocean, which is darker, which will absorb more heat and make things worse. There's also information about precipitation patterns and that affects agricultural productivity, movement patterns, migration, droughts, and those are all things we should think about and worry about. So then the other reaction to this reporting is are we doing Is this a moment where we cross this figure for the first time and just important of everything that is to come.

And the answer again is no, because it's not like crossing one point five degrees celsius in one ear means some irreversible thing has happened. There are real tipping points, things like the Amazon going from a rainforest to becoming a savannah, the Arctic becoming completely ice free, and all those things are things we should worry about. But the sad part is most of these tipping points we cannot predict when they will happen, and often we only really find out that they've happened when we look back. And that's why these reports are important, because scientists are warning us that we should keep below the temperature targets that we've set and avoid hitting these tipping points altogether.

And the answer again is no, because it's not like crossing one point five degrees celsius in one ear means some irreversible thing has happened. There are real tipping points, things like the Amazon going from a rainforest to becoming a savannah, the Arctic becoming completely ice free, and all those things are things we should worry about. But the sad part is most of these tipping points we cannot predict when they will happen, and often we only really find out that they've happened when we look back. And that's why these reports are important, because scientists are warning us that we should keep below the temperature targets that we've set and avoid hitting these tipping points altogether.

And there is some new reporting right that's just come out recently that says there is some hope that we might actually meet at least the two degree target.

And there is some new reporting right that's just come out recently that says there is some hope that we might actually meet at least the two degree target.

Yes, there's also a different study that came out this week in Nature Climate Change which says that if and it's a big if, all the pledges that countries have made so far are met, global average temperature in the long term can be kept below two degrees celsius and as close as to one point seven degrees celsius. That's never happened in the past. Countries haven't made those commitments until now. Of course, that also means that people have agency, because it's governments and corporations that have to meet these goals and people can hold them to account.

Yes, there's also a different study that came out this week in Nature Climate Change which says that if and it's a big if, all the pledges that countries have made so far are met, global average temperature in the long term can be kept below two degrees celsius and as close as to one point seven degrees celsius. That's never happened in the past. Countries haven't made those commitments until now. Of course, that also means that people have agency, because it's governments and corporations that have to meet these goals and people can hold them to account.

And do you think this report, having come out with so much coverage, is likely to increase the number of people holding those companies and their governments to account? Will it kickstart more aggressive action on climate change? Well, one can hope.

And do you think this report, having come out with so much coverage, is likely to increase the number of people holding those companies and their governments to account? Will it kickstart more aggressive action on climate change? Well, one can hope.

So. Just looking historically, the WMO has been publishing these reports annually for quite some time, and they did not always make front page news, and they did not always trigger a bonus episode on a climate podcast. These are moments which are created because of a report with a stark warning, that lead to conversations, and those conversations are honestly very important to be had.

So. Just looking historically, the WMO has been publishing these reports annually for quite some time, and they did not always make front page news, and they did not always trigger a bonus episode on a climate podcast. These are moments which are created because of a report with a stark warning, that lead to conversations, and those conversations are honestly very important to be had.

Now, well, thank you, accha, And at some point we'll do a bonus episode which is not all doom and glue?

Now, well, thank you, accha, And at some point we'll do a bonus episode which is not all doom and glue?

Yes, why do we always choose a bad science report to talk about a bonus episode?

Yes, why do we always choose a bad science report to talk about a bonus episode?

Thank you for listening to Zero. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. If you've got feedback, questions or suggestions, you can email us at Zero pod at Bloomberg dot net. Zero's producer is me Oscar Boyd and senior producer is Christine Jesco. Our regular host is Accha Rathi. You just heard his beautiful voice. It's a technical report and it says technical Special thanks to zarahirj You, Olivia Rauggard and Kira Benjum. For more reporting on the climate crisis and its solutions, head to Bloomberg dot com slash green

Thank you for listening to Zero. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. If you've got feedback, questions or suggestions, you can email us at Zero pod at Bloomberg dot net. Zero's producer is me Oscar Boyd and senior producer is Christine Jesco. Our regular host is Accha Rathi. You just heard his beautiful voice. It's a technical report and it says technical Special thanks to zarahirj You, Olivia Rauggard and Kira Benjum. For more reporting on the climate crisis and its solutions, head to Bloomberg dot com slash green