Welcome to Zero. I am Akshatrati this week kicking off COP twenty nine.

Welcome to Zero. I am Akshatrati this week kicking off COP twenty nine.

So my first impressions of COP is that it reminds me of thinking day this girl scout gathering we used to do in like the school gymnasium, where every brownie true kind of pick a different country and represent it with some food and a little poster with some information about the country that you're in charge of, and you sort of wand around the gym all day.

So my first impressions of COP is that it reminds me of thinking day this girl scout gathering we used to do in like the school gymnasium, where every brownie true kind of pick a different country and represent it with some food and a little poster with some information about the country that you're in charge of, and you sort of wand around the gym all day.

Well, this is what COP is like. It's just that the country's spending millions of dollars and it's adults rather than girl scouts making it.

Well, this is what COP is like. It's just that the country's spending millions of dollars and it's adults rather than girl scouts making it.

And some of the pavilions are pretty spot on. The UK had a big red phone booth, very recognizable.

And some of the pavilions are pretty spot on. The UK had a big red phone booth, very recognizable.

Cheesy, I guess for us, but I like the Kyrgyzstan pavilion. It had a really nice mountain tent, cozy from the inside, and very pretty.

Cheesy, I guess for us, but I like the Kyrgyzstan pavilion. It had a really nice mountain tent, cozy from the inside, and very pretty.

Kazakhstan also good showing these beautiful rugs draped across the place in some potteries and ceramics.

Kazakhstan also good showing these beautiful rugs draped across the place in some potteries and ceramics.

You missed the headline. Next to Kazakhstan is the United States pavilion, and as the plainest pavilion there is It's almost as if they are preparing that Donald Trump is going to come back to power and pull the US out of the UN treaty.

You missed the headline. Next to Kazakhstan is the United States pavilion, and as the plainest pavilion there is It's almost as if they are preparing that Donald Trump is going to come back to power and pull the US out of the UN treaty.

The mood does seem to be a little bit somber at the US Pavilion.

The mood does seem to be a little bit somber at the US Pavilion.

Zero is an Azerbaijan in Baku for the twenty ninth Conference of the Parties, the annual climate summit that brings together heads of state and delegations from around the world for two weeks of intense discussions and hopefully major breakthroughs. If you heard the recent episode we did with avinash prasad Special Advisor on Climate Change for the Inter American Development Bank, you know that this year's COP is finance COP and the big question on the table is who will the growing sums needed to tackle climate change.

Zero is an Azerbaijan in Baku for the twenty ninth Conference of the Parties, the annual climate summit that brings together heads of state and delegations from around the world for two weeks of intense discussions and hopefully major breakthroughs. If you heard the recent episode we did with avinash prasad Special Advisor on Climate Change for the Inter American Development Bank, you know that this year's COP is finance COP and the big question on the table is who will the growing sums needed to tackle climate change.

That's the challenge with climate finance. The whole world benefits, and some more than others, some more climate vulnerable than others, and we're asking a different set of people who perhaps not suffering most from the climate today to make the biggest contribution, partly because they have contributed the greatest amount to the climate problem through a century of emissions.

That's the challenge with climate finance. The whole world benefits, and some more than others, some more climate vulnerable than others, and we're asking a different set of people who perhaps not suffering most from the climate today to make the biggest contribution, partly because they have contributed the greatest amount to the climate problem through a century of emissions.

Driving through Baccu, the city's unique flame shaped skyscrapers are impossible to miss. It's a tribute to the region's history of fire worship, but also a constant reminder that this place was among the first to give birth to the modern oil industry. Azerbaijan's fossil fuel sector accounts for ninety percent of its exports and a third of its total economic output, but now it must focus on moving away from fossil fuels, which was the mandate all countries signed off on at So things kicked off on Monday.

Driving through Baccu, the city's unique flame shaped skyscrapers are impossible to miss. It's a tribute to the region's history of fire worship, but also a constant reminder that this place was among the first to give birth to the modern oil industry. Azerbaijan's fossil fuel sector accounts for ninety percent of its exports and a third of its total economic output, but now it must focus on moving away from fossil fuels, which was the mandate all countries signed off on at So things kicked off on Monday.

We're approaching the Baku Olympic Stadium and there's this loud hub.

We're approaching the Baku Olympic Stadium and there's this loud hub.

What is this?

What is this?

I think it's diesel generators. We can smell the fumes of diesel, and I assume that's how we're going to be powered for the next two weeks. It's shaping up to be an action pack two weeks, and I'm racing myself. So for today's episode, I bring you bits from my interview with COP twenty nine President Muktar Babayev to give you a sense of what's in store at this COP and Zero's producer Mightily Rao and I discuss why this meeting is shaping up to be very different from the cops of the past, and why the stakes of this COP are so big?

I think it's diesel generators. We can smell the fumes of diesel, and I assume that's how we're going to be powered for the next two weeks. It's shaping up to be an action pack two weeks, and I'm racing myself. So for today's episode, I bring you bits from my interview with COP twenty nine President Muktar Babayev to give you a sense of what's in store at this COP and Zero's producer Mightily Rao and I discuss why this meeting is shaping up to be very different from the cops of the past, and why the stakes of this COP are so big?

Hi, Actually, I know that for climate reporters like you, COP is basically the Super Bowl.

Hi, Actually, I know that for climate reporters like you, COP is basically the Super Bowl.

Yeah, I mean for Americans, yes, I would think better reference for me is the Cricket World Cup.

Yeah, I mean for Americans, yes, I would think better reference for me is the Cricket World Cup.

Okay, okay, the Cricket World Cup. So here we are Cricket World Cup twenty twenty four, also known as COP twenty nine. And I think even before we get into what's on the line over the next two weeks in Baku, we should probably rewind a little bit and go back to last year COP twenty eight in Dubai, another Petro state, another COP that was in some ways controversial, but it concluded with what I think we could all agree was a pretty big breakthrough. Can you remind listeners what was the biggest accomplishment of that COP and how it sort of sets the stage for what we're looking at now in Baku.

Okay, okay, the Cricket World Cup. So here we are Cricket World Cup twenty twenty four, also known as COP twenty nine. And I think even before we get into what's on the line over the next two weeks in Baku, we should probably rewind a little bit and go back to last year COP twenty eight in Dubai, another Petro state, another COP that was in some ways controversial, but it concluded with what I think we could all agree was a pretty big breakthrough. Can you remind listeners what was the biggest accomplishment of that COP and how it sort of sets the stage for what we're looking at now in Baku.

One of the things that every COP has done since the Paris Agreement was signed in twenty fifteen is to try and get countries to take actions that would keep the goals of the Paris Agreement alive. Is trying to keep warming below one point five degrees celsius and going into COP twenty eight in Dubai, that one point five degree celsius target was really slipping away. So one thing that countries needed to agree on was to start to transition away from fossil fuels, and they signed off on that in a document that all countries agreed on, which is a big thing for a COP to achieve, because before that even the mention of fossil fuels in the final text was considered controversial. But COP twenty eight went a step further. It's not just about reducing the use of fossil fuels but also increasing the use of clean energy, so it set a goal for tripling renewable energy by the end of the decade. And it also did something for climate vulnerable countries by putting in the first money into the Loss and Damage Fund, which currently has some seven hundred million dollars in there, which is not enough, but at least it gets to a point where it can be operationalized with the help of the World Bank, and then poorest countries can draw from that fund when they're hit by climate change, hurricane drafts, floods, things that they cannot recover from without immediate assistance.

One of the things that every COP has done since the Paris Agreement was signed in twenty fifteen is to try and get countries to take actions that would keep the goals of the Paris Agreement alive. Is trying to keep warming below one point five degrees celsius and going into COP twenty eight in Dubai, that one point five degree celsius target was really slipping away. So one thing that countries needed to agree on was to start to transition away from fossil fuels, and they signed off on that in a document that all countries agreed on, which is a big thing for a COP to achieve, because before that even the mention of fossil fuels in the final text was considered controversial. But COP twenty eight went a step further. It's not just about reducing the use of fossil fuels but also increasing the use of clean energy, so it set a goal for tripling renewable energy by the end of the decade. And it also did something for climate vulnerable countries by putting in the first money into the Loss and Damage Fund, which currently has some seven hundred million dollars in there, which is not enough, but at least it gets to a point where it can be operationalized with the help of the World Bank, and then poorest countries can draw from that fund when they're hit by climate change, hurricane drafts, floods, things that they cannot recover from without immediate assistance.

And if each COP has its idiosyncrasies, some of that comes down to the personality of a person who's leading it. Last time, it was Sultan al Jabbar, someone you profiled in the run up to COP twenty eight at Dubai. What was his approach that made it a success?

And if each COP has its idiosyncrasies, some of that comes down to the personality of a person who's leading it. Last time, it was Sultan al Jabbar, someone you profiled in the run up to COP twenty eight at Dubai. What was his approach that made it a success?

So Sultan Algebra wore many hats. He was the CEO of the oil company Adnock, the chairperson of Mazdar, the UA's renewable energy company, and somebody who'd been at climate summits representing the UA for almost a decade before that. So that combination of old world energy, New World energy, and climate diplomacy was crucial in trying to bring together these two hundred countries to sign off on what our contraver texts. Even today, he was able to do that because the UAE, the country, and the leader of the country gave him the mandate to actually get this deal done.

So Sultan Algebra wore many hats. He was the CEO of the oil company Adnock, the chairperson of Mazdar, the UA's renewable energy company, and somebody who'd been at climate summits representing the UA for almost a decade before that. So that combination of old world energy, New World energy, and climate diplomacy was crucial in trying to bring together these two hundred countries to sign off on what our contraver texts. Even today, he was able to do that because the UAE, the country, and the leader of the country gave him the mandate to actually get this deal done.

Now Here we are in Iserbaijan, where there doesn't necessarily seem to be that kind of mandate coming from the government. Let's get into Iserbaijan's relationship to this process. How would you sort of explain where they sit in terms of trying to achieve big climate breakthroughs.

Now Here we are in Iserbaijan, where there doesn't necessarily seem to be that kind of mandate coming from the government. Let's get into Iserbaijan's relationship to this process. How would you sort of explain where they sit in terms of trying to achieve big climate breakthroughs.

Yeah.

Yeah.

One question that people keep asking is that why is Baku the home to COP And the procedural answer is that COP meetings rotate in different regions of the world every year.

One question that people keep asking is that why is Baku the home to COP And the procedural answer is that COP meetings rotate in different regions of the world every year.

So in some ways it was their turn, or someone from that region had to have a turn.

So in some ways it was their turn, or someone from that region had to have a turn.

Correct. It was supposed to be an Eastern European COP, all countries in that region had to agree on who would host it, and Russia was playing the baddie by not allowing a European country like Bulgaria to host it, so eventually Azerbaijan was the only real option for this COP. But Azerbaijan as a country has not really been active in the climate space. One expert who's been to most COPS told me that from her memory, Azerbaijan has never stood up and spoken at a COP meeting before, never piped up no. It's climate plan, which was recently assessed by Climate Action Tracker, is rated critically insufficient. It does not have an at zero goal. If it followed that plan, the world would warm up by four degrees celsius, and Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels even for its own economic future. Europe, which was reliant on Russian gas is now trying to move away and it has to tap other sources of gas. One of them is likely to be Azerbaijan. Then there are geopolitical issues. The country has been at conflict with Armenia and over the past year has been trying to finalize a peace deal with the country. So there's a lot happening in Azerbaijan. It's got nothing to do with KOPP and yet this is what cops end up being. They end up being in places around the world where, regardless of the hundred issues that are at play, climate change and how to tackle climate change is going to be the focus for the next two weeks.

Correct. It was supposed to be an Eastern European COP, all countries in that region had to agree on who would host it, and Russia was playing the baddie by not allowing a European country like Bulgaria to host it, so eventually Azerbaijan was the only real option for this COP. But Azerbaijan as a country has not really been active in the climate space. One expert who's been to most COPS told me that from her memory, Azerbaijan has never stood up and spoken at a COP meeting before, never piped up no. It's climate plan, which was recently assessed by Climate Action Tracker, is rated critically insufficient. It does not have an at zero goal. If it followed that plan, the world would warm up by four degrees celsius, and Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on fossil fuels even for its own economic future. Europe, which was reliant on Russian gas is now trying to move away and it has to tap other sources of gas. One of them is likely to be Azerbaijan. Then there are geopolitical issues. The country has been at conflict with Armenia and over the past year has been trying to finalize a peace deal with the country. So there's a lot happening in Azerbaijan. It's got nothing to do with KOPP and yet this is what cops end up being. They end up being in places around the world where, regardless of the hundred issues that are at play, climate change and how to tackle climate change is going to be the focus for the next two weeks.

So it's a delicate diplomatic balancing act. And there's a lot on the line this year and a lot of complications this year. But you caught up with Mukdharbarbayev.

So it's a delicate diplomatic balancing act. And there's a lot on the line this year and a lot of complications this year. But you caught up with Mukdharbarbayev.

Your name is Akshatrakshya, and.

Your name is Akshatrakshya, and.

You've got a chance to ask him a little more about what his approach is going to be. Like let's talk a little bit about him in particular.

You've got a chance to ask him a little more about what his approach is going to be. Like let's talk a little bit about him in particular.

Mukhzharbabayev is the Environment Minister of Azerbaijan right now, but before that from nineteen ninety four to twenty eighteen he worked for Sokar, the Azerbaijani oil company, and he was in charge for efforts to limit Sokar's environmental impact, so he has some experience trying to figure out plans to reduce the missions. But nonprofits have also expressed their disappointment that yet again an executive from a fossil field company has been put in place to lead negotiations on how to move away from fossil fuels.

Mukhzharbabayev is the Environment Minister of Azerbaijan right now, but before that from nineteen ninety four to twenty eighteen he worked for Sokar, the Azerbaijani oil company, and he was in charge for efforts to limit Sokar's environmental impact, so he has some experience trying to figure out plans to reduce the missions. But nonprofits have also expressed their disappointment that yet again an executive from a fossil field company has been put in place to lead negotiations on how to move away from fossil fuels.

And do you think he's up to the task.

And do you think he's up to the task.

We don't know. The thing with COP presidents is that they're almost always doing the job for the first time, and it's not an easy job. You have to get two hundred countries to agree on something, plus you have to learn very quickly. You're typically only given the plan for hosting a COP about a year in advance. Azerbaijan had even fewer than twelve months to really prepare.

We don't know. The thing with COP presidents is that they're almost always doing the job for the first time, and it's not an easy job. You have to get two hundred countries to agree on something, plus you have to learn very quickly. You're typically only given the plan for hosting a COP about a year in advance. Azerbaijan had even fewer than twelve months to really prepare.

And even before things started there was a lot of talk about concerns about the number of people who are going to be able to attend, the number of badges being given out.

And even before things started there was a lot of talk about concerns about the number of people who are going to be able to attend, the number of badges being given out.

Right, Yes, this is certainly going to be a smaller COP than COP twenty eight in Dubai or even COP twenty seven in Egypt. I got a chance to ask Babayev about these complaints from NGOs on the number of badges and whether they'll be able to allow for all the people who really want to come. There have been lots of complaints from angios about number of badges that people are being given. Have you heard anything about it? Is there just a fewer number of badges this year? Is that how we just have to learn to deal with the fact that not enough.

Right, Yes, this is certainly going to be a smaller COP than COP twenty eight in Dubai or even COP twenty seven in Egypt. I got a chance to ask Babayev about these complaints from NGOs on the number of badges and whether they'll be able to allow for all the people who really want to come. There have been lots of complaints from angios about number of badges that people are being given. Have you heard anything about it? Is there just a fewer number of badges this year? Is that how we just have to learn to deal with the fact that not enough.

To hear much should frankly speaking, possibly, I don't know. I don't know in detail, but I think we will provide necessity badges and other permissions for entrance to other organizations. We have not any limitations in it.

To hear much should frankly speaking, possibly, I don't know. I don't know in detail, but I think we will provide necessity badges and other permissions for entrance to other organizations. We have not any limitations in it.

So it's not the most decisive answer, but it sounds like he was at least willing to acknowledge that this is an issue that they're aware of.

So it's not the most decisive answer, but it sounds like he was at least willing to acknowledge that this is an issue that they're aware of.

And I also asked him about protests because that is something that is a big feature of COP meetings and Azerbaijan is known to be a repressive regime and protests are not typically free and open, So I asked him whether they are making our rangements for climate activists to show up at COP twenty nine and be allowed to protest. Shot. You know this.

And I also asked him about protests because that is something that is a big feature of COP meetings and Azerbaijan is known to be a repressive regime and protests are not typically free and open, So I asked him whether they are making our rangements for climate activists to show up at COP twenty nine and be allowed to protest. Shot. You know this.

We announced that COPY in Baku will inclusive and transparent, and we invited all stakeholders to come to Baku to forum. We will provide all necessity conditions for the parties to come be a part of the discussions, debates, consultations at the same time.

We announced that COPY in Baku will inclusive and transparent, and we invited all stakeholders to come to Baku to forum. We will provide all necessity conditions for the parties to come be a part of the discussions, debates, consultations at the same time.

We'll see how that shapes up. Because this is my first COP, but I understand that that's usually almost a part of the joy of the proceedings is the noise company and the energy from the protesters. After the break, we'll talk more about how success will be defined at this cup. So actually, here we are in Baku. What are the big ticket items at this cup?

We'll see how that shapes up. Because this is my first COP, but I understand that that's usually almost a part of the joy of the proceedings is the noise company and the energy from the protesters. After the break, we'll talk more about how success will be defined at this cup. So actually, here we are in Baku. What are the big ticket items at this cup?

All cops have a long list of agenda items, but there are really two big ticket items. One is something called NCQG, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance. Yes, a mouthful, but really important because it's the money that rich countries are supposed to give to poor countries. Previously, that number was one hundred billion dollars and was agreed on in two thousand and nine that rich countries would reach by twenty twenty they didn't quite mean that in twenty twenty, but eventually they say they got there by twenty twenty two, and that was a big moment because, as we all know, the problem of climate has been created by the emissions from rich countries, and now poor countries don't have the carbon budget to use up all that coal and oil to develop themselves. Instead, they need to move to clean energy, and this money is supposed to help poor countries green their energy. But also because we're already at one point three degrees celsius of warming relative to industrial times, there are climate impacts as we see all around the world, and so some of that money is supposed to go for adaptation, to try and build infrastructure that would be ready for the warming that we have already created. So at COP twenty nine they need to come up with the new one hundred billion dollar figure, which is going to be much larger because the needs of poor countries have grown in that time. We talked to avinash Persad about this. The numbers being floated are as high as a trillion dollars or maybe even two trillion dollars, and if that is the size of the part, we should just recognize there just isn't enough money from rich countries that goes to poor countries. Today, all of the foreign aid budget annually adds up to only about two hundred billion dollars. So how are we going to reach that trillion dollars? Let's hear from Abinash.

All cops have a long list of agenda items, but there are really two big ticket items. One is something called NCQG, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance. Yes, a mouthful, but really important because it's the money that rich countries are supposed to give to poor countries. Previously, that number was one hundred billion dollars and was agreed on in two thousand and nine that rich countries would reach by twenty twenty they didn't quite mean that in twenty twenty, but eventually they say they got there by twenty twenty two, and that was a big moment because, as we all know, the problem of climate has been created by the emissions from rich countries, and now poor countries don't have the carbon budget to use up all that coal and oil to develop themselves. Instead, they need to move to clean energy, and this money is supposed to help poor countries green their energy. But also because we're already at one point three degrees celsius of warming relative to industrial times, there are climate impacts as we see all around the world, and so some of that money is supposed to go for adaptation, to try and build infrastructure that would be ready for the warming that we have already created. So at COP twenty nine they need to come up with the new one hundred billion dollar figure, which is going to be much larger because the needs of poor countries have grown in that time. We talked to avinash Persad about this. The numbers being floated are as high as a trillion dollars or maybe even two trillion dollars, and if that is the size of the part, we should just recognize there just isn't enough money from rich countries that goes to poor countries. Today, all of the foreign aid budget annually adds up to only about two hundred billion dollars. So how are we going to reach that trillion dollars? Let's hear from Abinash.

Developing countries have said the number we need is a trillion. Developed country have said, maybe maybe there's a trillion, but that's not coming from our budgets. There's no space there. So I think that the pathway to success would be that we have some real hard guarantees around it. If developed countries were to say sixty seventy percent is coming from the private sector, and we are going to put up the guarantees that will back sixty to seventy percent, and we're going to provide the guarantees that will help the MDBs to fill the savings bit, the two hundred to three hundred billion dollars per year that we need for investments and resilience and adaptation that can be postpaid from the savings, and then we're going to raise our budgets to do this cost bit. I think that that's the way to get there.

Developing countries have said the number we need is a trillion. Developed country have said, maybe maybe there's a trillion, but that's not coming from our budgets. There's no space there. So I think that the pathway to success would be that we have some real hard guarantees around it. If developed countries were to say sixty seventy percent is coming from the private sector, and we are going to put up the guarantees that will back sixty to seventy percent, and we're going to provide the guarantees that will help the MDBs to fill the savings bit, the two hundred to three hundred billion dollars per year that we need for investments and resilience and adaptation that can be postpaid from the savings, and then we're going to raise our budgets to do this cost bit. I think that that's the way to get there.

Okay, so that's one big ticket item what else is on the table.

Okay, so that's one big ticket item what else is on the table.

The other one is called Article six, another jargon. This one refers to a specific article inside the Paris Agreement, which assigned in twenty fifteen, that deals with carbon markets. The idea is that countries that are doing better on emissions or have big forests that need protecting because they are sequesting all this carbon should be able to trade their carbon benefits with rich countries that are polluting more. And that would also create one more route through which rich countries are able to send money to poor countries.

The other one is called Article six, another jargon. This one refers to a specific article inside the Paris Agreement, which assigned in twenty fifteen, that deals with carbon markets. The idea is that countries that are doing better on emissions or have big forests that need protecting because they are sequesting all this carbon should be able to trade their carbon benefits with rich countries that are polluting more. And that would also create one more route through which rich countries are able to send money to poor countries.

But it's also quite controversial, right, this is a market where there's a lot of opportunity for fraud or.

But it's also quite controversial, right, this is a market where there's a lot of opportunity for fraud or.

Abuse, exactly why it's taken so long to actually agree to the rules around this market. At Bloombergreen, we have exposed many of these frauds in the voluntary carbon market, and there is a risk that if the rules aren't clear enough, those frauds will get perpetuated, perhaps even at a larger scale, because Article six will give this market a stamp of approval from the United Nations, which suddenly makes this market not just voluntary, but with a UN stamp.

Abuse, exactly why it's taken so long to actually agree to the rules around this market. At Bloombergreen, we have exposed many of these frauds in the voluntary carbon market, and there is a risk that if the rules aren't clear enough, those frauds will get perpetuated, perhaps even at a larger scale, because Article six will give this market a stamp of approval from the United Nations, which suddenly makes this market not just voluntary, but with a UN stamp.

So this is when there's a chance to potentially course correct on this and make this carbon offset market have some real teeth, have some real meaning. This is something Bloomberg Green has been covering a lot, and you just published an investigation around this, right, Yeah.

So this is when there's a chance to potentially course correct on this and make this carbon offset market have some real teeth, have some real meaning. This is something Bloomberg Green has been covering a lot, and you just published an investigation around this, right, Yeah.

So the one that we looked at was a specific type of offset called renewable energy offsets. These are generated when a renewable energy plant, say a solar farm or a wind farm, is built, and the claim is that it avoided the building of a coal power plant or a gas power plant, and thus it should be able to not just provide this green electricity, but also provide offsets. The problem is, we know solar and wind power are now the cheapest sources of new energy, so are they really avoiding the building of these coal power plants? And experts say these offsets are junk and they should not be part of any legitimate carbon market. The difficulty is these renewable energy offsets still exist on the market and are likely to be the first kind that will be available on the Article six carbon market if it is approved, and market participants need to be aware that they are perhaps at a risk of buying junk off sets right at the start of this new market.

So the one that we looked at was a specific type of offset called renewable energy offsets. These are generated when a renewable energy plant, say a solar farm or a wind farm, is built, and the claim is that it avoided the building of a coal power plant or a gas power plant, and thus it should be able to not just provide this green electricity, but also provide offsets. The problem is, we know solar and wind power are now the cheapest sources of new energy, so are they really avoiding the building of these coal power plants? And experts say these offsets are junk and they should not be part of any legitimate carbon market. The difficulty is these renewable energy offsets still exist on the market and are likely to be the first kind that will be available on the Article six carbon market if it is approved, and market participants need to be aware that they are perhaps at a risk of buying junk off sets right at the start of this new market.

So those are the two big ticket items, ironing out the n CQG and then also sorting out Article six and what it means for carbon offsets in the future of that market. We've got two weeks ahead. What is the process of getting any of us done going to look like here and Baku.

So those are the two big ticket items, ironing out the n CQG and then also sorting out Article six and what it means for carbon offsets in the future of that market. We've got two weeks ahead. What is the process of getting any of us done going to look like here and Baku.

Well, you're already getting a hang of the jargon, so that's a good place to make SEEQG. Yeah, but yes, you're right. This is a long process, a long meeting, and we are on day one, typically the day when countries have what is called the agenda fight, where they'll fight and jostle over what actually ends up being discussed over the next two weeks. This time, there may not be much of a fight because we know there are certain things that definitely need to be done. Then day two and day three we'll see one hundred plus world leaders come and rally the troops, giving a mandate to their environment ministers, to their negotiating teams that they care about acting on this problem and it's not something we should sniff at. Because under the United Nations manner, Climate cop meetings are the largest meetings that the United Nations organizes. It often has more world leaders than even the United Nations General Assembly, which happens in New York every year in September, and so that'll be an important phase. But the real crunch time will come towards the second week, where after all this talking that will happen with multiple rounds going back and forth, the document that needs to be agreed on on MCQG and on Article six will have few in few square brackets, which is few in few points disagreement. There will still be some towards the end, and hopefully at the end of it all those disappear and you get a deal.

Well, you're already getting a hang of the jargon, so that's a good place to make SEEQG. Yeah, but yes, you're right. This is a long process, a long meeting, and we are on day one, typically the day when countries have what is called the agenda fight, where they'll fight and jostle over what actually ends up being discussed over the next two weeks. This time, there may not be much of a fight because we know there are certain things that definitely need to be done. Then day two and day three we'll see one hundred plus world leaders come and rally the troops, giving a mandate to their environment ministers, to their negotiating teams that they care about acting on this problem and it's not something we should sniff at. Because under the United Nations manner, Climate cop meetings are the largest meetings that the United Nations organizes. It often has more world leaders than even the United Nations General Assembly, which happens in New York every year in September, and so that'll be an important phase. But the real crunch time will come towards the second week, where after all this talking that will happen with multiple rounds going back and forth, the document that needs to be agreed on on MCQG and on Article six will have few in few square brackets, which is few in few points disagreement. There will still be some towards the end, and hopefully at the end of it all those disappear and you get a deal.

I feel like I got a pretty good preview of this when we went to see the production of Kyoto put on by the Royal Shakespeare Company in Stratford upon Avon, a play that made the Kyoto Summit of nineteen ninety seven dramatic and fun and all these long meetings kind of poetic. But it's not going to quite be like that, is it.

I feel like I got a pretty good preview of this when we went to see the production of Kyoto put on by the Royal Shakespeare Company in Stratford upon Avon, a play that made the Kyoto Summit of nineteen ninety seven dramatic and fun and all these long meetings kind of poetic. But it's not going to quite be like that, is it.

I hope that it's like that. But giving you experienced Kyoto of two weeks in two hours.

I hope that it's like that. But giving you experienced Kyoto of two weeks in two hours.

Like beautifully theatrically choreographed two hours.

Like beautifully theatrically choreographed two hours.

Great actors, the dialogue, nice music, this one will be much more of a grind.

Great actors, the dialogue, nice music, this one will be much more of a grind.

Little grittier, little more real life, lots of time in conference rooms. We will buckle in. What are your predictions for what we're going to see in the next two weeks.

Little grittier, little more real life, lots of time in conference rooms. We will buckle in. What are your predictions for what we're going to see in the next two weeks.

I don't make predictions, but maybe let me give you some wild cards, things that are unlikely to happen, but if they happen, they could make a big difference. First one is that China comes out and says, you know what, we will actually contribute towards this NCQG. So the big fight right now is that it's rich countries giving money to poor countries. Now I say rich and poor, but the United Nations defines it very clearly in what are called Annex one countries and Annex two countries. And you'd be surprised, which if the countries that we would class poor are an Annex two but aren't really poor, like Singapore and the Ue and China. China is now the second largest economy in the world still on a per capita basis not quite there with Europeans.

I don't make predictions, but maybe let me give you some wild cards, things that are unlikely to happen, but if they happen, they could make a big difference. First one is that China comes out and says, you know what, we will actually contribute towards this NCQG. So the big fight right now is that it's rich countries giving money to poor countries. Now I say rich and poor, but the United Nations defines it very clearly in what are called Annex one countries and Annex two countries. And you'd be surprised, which if the countries that we would class poor are an Annex two but aren't really poor, like Singapore and the Ue and China. China is now the second largest economy in the world still on a per capita basis not quite there with Europeans.

But these are slightly outmoded classifications.

But these are slightly outmoded classifications.

They are, and maybe China will say, you know, don't worry about the classifications. We have been spending all this money under the Belton Road initiative, some of which has gone towards infrastructure that is clean, that is towards electrifying the world. We should start to count those towards a contribution we are making as a country towards this goal. And then the wildest of them all, which is clearly not going to happen, but you know, one can dream is Russia says. You know, we were the ones who ensured that the COP meeting is happening in Baku. As a good will, We're going to contribute a few billion dollars towards this.

They are, and maybe China will say, you know, don't worry about the classifications. We have been spending all this money under the Belton Road initiative, some of which has gone towards infrastructure that is clean, that is towards electrifying the world. We should start to count those towards a contribution we are making as a country towards this goal. And then the wildest of them all, which is clearly not going to happen, but you know, one can dream is Russia says. You know, we were the ones who ensured that the COP meeting is happening in Baku. As a good will, We're going to contribute a few billion dollars towards this.

One real surprise ending there, real unexpected twist. I guess never say never. We'll see what happens in the next two weeks. Lots to play for, obviously, but here we are at the very beginning. We've got a long ways to go before there's any kind of agreement at all, and it's not even clear whether Iserbaijan and the COP twenty nine President Makdhar Babe are fully prepared to make this a success. But has Aerbajan done anything so far that's really impressed you, Any kind of demonstration of ambition, any kind of indication that they want to throw some muscle into pulling off some great breakthrough here.

One real surprise ending there, real unexpected twist. I guess never say never. We'll see what happens in the next two weeks. Lots to play for, obviously, but here we are at the very beginning. We've got a long ways to go before there's any kind of agreement at all, and it's not even clear whether Iserbaijan and the COP twenty nine President Makdhar Babe are fully prepared to make this a success. But has Aerbajan done anything so far that's really impressed you, Any kind of demonstration of ambition, any kind of indication that they want to throw some muscle into pulling off some great breakthrough here.

Look, organizing a COP meeting is hard, especially if you're not a country that typically hosts one hundred were leaders on an annual basis, or has the infrastructure, the number of hotels, the number of flights that come in to get all these people in one place and get them talking. So far, we've seen the infrastructure and it works, so that's good. The other one is already Azerbaijan wants to host other COPS, so they put their name forward for COPS seventeen, which is the Nature COP to be hosted in twenty twenty six. They didn't get it. Their neighbor Armenia got it, but clearly they think doing this work for COP twenty nine was worthy enough that they wanted to host another COP. But if we look at narrower things at UAE, we had the government come out with a thirty billion dollar fund that they want to put toward clean energy, and that was a big number coming from a country on its own. We've seen Azerbaijan try to replicate that in the size that is alzer Vaijan and much smaller economy, not as rich, by creating a one billion dollar fund we'll find out whether there is real money in it and what actually it goes toward. But that ambition is there and Muktar Babee have told us a little bit about it. How much money have you secured in which other countries contribute to?

Look, organizing a COP meeting is hard, especially if you're not a country that typically hosts one hundred were leaders on an annual basis, or has the infrastructure, the number of hotels, the number of flights that come in to get all these people in one place and get them talking. So far, we've seen the infrastructure and it works, so that's good. The other one is already Azerbaijan wants to host other COPS, so they put their name forward for COPS seventeen, which is the Nature COP to be hosted in twenty twenty six. They didn't get it. Their neighbor Armenia got it, but clearly they think doing this work for COP twenty nine was worthy enough that they wanted to host another COP. But if we look at narrower things at UAE, we had the government come out with a thirty billion dollar fund that they want to put toward clean energy, and that was a big number coming from a country on its own. We've seen Azerbaijan try to replicate that in the size that is alzer Vaijan and much smaller economy, not as rich, by creating a one billion dollar fund we'll find out whether there is real money in it and what actually it goes toward. But that ambition is there and Muktar Babee have told us a little bit about it. How much money have you secured in which other countries contribute to?

So we are create a special working group. We invite the economies and different researchers to this working group, international group from the different countries, different international organizations, and now we are working on the program, working with the countries. We are preparing the correct concept of this fund and we're still continuing this discussion with the countries.

So we are create a special working group. We invite the economies and different researchers to this working group, international group from the different countries, different international organizations, and now we are working on the program, working with the countries. We are preparing the correct concept of this fund and we're still continuing this discussion with the countries.

I think there's also the fact that Azerbaijan has a major all company. It's the oil company that keeps the economy running, SOCAR, and SOCAR hasn't been one of those companies that you would be able to hold to account for its emissions or lack of environmental steps. But because the world's eyes are now focused on Azarbaijan, SOCAR has had to think about what exactly it's doing to reduce as carbon emissions. It's joined the Methane Pledge, it started to cap methane leagues, it has some sort of a decarbonization plan and Maktara talked about that too.

I think there's also the fact that Azerbaijan has a major all company. It's the oil company that keeps the economy running, SOCAR, and SOCAR hasn't been one of those companies that you would be able to hold to account for its emissions or lack of environmental steps. But because the world's eyes are now focused on Azarbaijan, SOCAR has had to think about what exactly it's doing to reduce as carbon emissions. It's joined the Methane Pledge, it started to cap methane leagues, it has some sort of a decarbonization plan and Maktara talked about that too.

Soccer Now in the transition to energy company, they already started to implement several green projects. They adopted the carbonization program for twenty fifty. They have several big projects on green hydrogen and other directions, renewable energy implementation, different projects off shore wind and others, and specifically the focus now the reduction of the mithin emissions at CHET.

Soccer Now in the transition to energy company, they already started to implement several green projects. They adopted the carbonization program for twenty fifty. They have several big projects on green hydrogen and other directions, renewable energy implementation, different projects off shore wind and others, and specifically the focus now the reduction of the mithin emissions at CHET.

There's one thing we haven't talked about yet, which was the election last week. Donald Trump is going to take office in twenty twenty five. This doesn't necessarily change what happens at COP over the next two weeks in some ways because the delegation that was sent was already set up by the Biden administration. They've already got all their plans in place. So what changes with Trump being voted into office.

There's one thing we haven't talked about yet, which was the election last week. Donald Trump is going to take office in twenty twenty five. This doesn't necessarily change what happens at COP over the next two weeks in some ways because the delegation that was sent was already set up by the Biden administration. They've already got all their plans in place. So what changes with Trump being voted into office.

Nothing directly because it's the same officials with the same mandate coming through. But how much credibility will they have in these complex negotiations, And that's something I wanted to understand from someone who has an insider view on this. We spoke to Jason Bordoff for our previous episode. He's the founding director at the Seer on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, and here's what he had to say.

Nothing directly because it's the same officials with the same mandate coming through. But how much credibility will they have in these complex negotiations, And that's something I wanted to understand from someone who has an insider view on this. We spoke to Jason Bordoff for our previous episode. He's the founding director at the Seer on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, and here's what he had to say.

Well, I think there would be a significant concern about that. I mean, as you said, the Biden administration leaders John Pedesta and his team will still be going to Baku to negotiate, but of course they're negotiating with people from other countries that worry whether anything that they say or commit to will still be binding in two or three months down the road. And that's not just the UN climate negotiations. That was tearing up the Iron Nuclear Deal when Trump came into power, how he thinks about NATO and other international agreements. This is about US credibility in the world, and are people going to be able to take us at our word if every four years we're pulling in and out of these important international agreements. That's a real concern and a real risk. And so that is there, and it's not at all clear to me that anything that the Biden administration commits to is necessarily going to be honored by the next administration. It's going to be very hard to mobilize capital at the scale that people are talking about, and frankly, the climate crisis demands and requires that is why, even though a lot was accomplished at COP twenty eight in Dubai, the US actually put a relatively modest amount of money into the new Fund for Climate trans for climate finance in developing countries, and other countries step up to fill the void, particularly the UAE, which you know, and the UAE and Saudi and Golf countries. To the extent the US pulls back from a leadership role in this sectors, others will step in to some extent, not probably enough. Golf countries are a good example of that, and they're doing it for geostrategic reasons, not just because they care deeply about climate change. But in this new world of great power competition, non aligned middle powers like Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, they're being quite transactional and thinking about who they align themselves with, not establishing themselves in set redetermined blocks of powers around the world. All of that is a threat to the US US strategic and geopolitical leadership role in the world. And that's just one of the ways to think about the consequences of the US pulling back on this, Not just that we lose the ability to pay for clean energy in lower income parts of the world, which is why I hope there's some recognition on both sides of the aisle that it's important to still be part of these conversations.

Well, I think there would be a significant concern about that. I mean, as you said, the Biden administration leaders John Pedesta and his team will still be going to Baku to negotiate, but of course they're negotiating with people from other countries that worry whether anything that they say or commit to will still be binding in two or three months down the road. And that's not just the UN climate negotiations. That was tearing up the Iron Nuclear Deal when Trump came into power, how he thinks about NATO and other international agreements. This is about US credibility in the world, and are people going to be able to take us at our word if every four years we're pulling in and out of these important international agreements. That's a real concern and a real risk. And so that is there, and it's not at all clear to me that anything that the Biden administration commits to is necessarily going to be honored by the next administration. It's going to be very hard to mobilize capital at the scale that people are talking about, and frankly, the climate crisis demands and requires that is why, even though a lot was accomplished at COP twenty eight in Dubai, the US actually put a relatively modest amount of money into the new Fund for Climate trans for climate finance in developing countries, and other countries step up to fill the void, particularly the UAE, which you know, and the UAE and Saudi and Golf countries. To the extent the US pulls back from a leadership role in this sectors, others will step in to some extent, not probably enough. Golf countries are a good example of that, and they're doing it for geostrategic reasons, not just because they care deeply about climate change. But in this new world of great power competition, non aligned middle powers like Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, they're being quite transactional and thinking about who they align themselves with, not establishing themselves in set redetermined blocks of powers around the world. All of that is a threat to the US US strategic and geopolitical leadership role in the world. And that's just one of the ways to think about the consequences of the US pulling back on this, Not just that we lose the ability to pay for clean energy in lower income parts of the world, which is why I hope there's some recognition on both sides of the aisle that it's important to still be part of these conversations.

Actually, this whole conference is playing out with a really stark backdrop of war. Iran is one of Iserbajean's neighbors. Russia is another one. As we talked about another neighbor, Armenia has been in a drawn out process of trying to reach a peace agreement with Iserbajan over their conflict. In some ways, I feel like it's kind of amazing to see a diplomatic effort like this in action, even amid so much conflict. But it also kind of underscores just how hard it's going to be to make real strides in climate policy, doesn't it.

Actually, this whole conference is playing out with a really stark backdrop of war. Iran is one of Iserbajean's neighbors. Russia is another one. As we talked about another neighbor, Armenia has been in a drawn out process of trying to reach a peace agreement with Iserbajan over their conflict. In some ways, I feel like it's kind of amazing to see a diplomatic effort like this in action, even amid so much conflict. But it also kind of underscores just how hard it's going to be to make real strides in climate policy, doesn't it.

It is, and we are sitting sort of in the middle and the north you've got the U Green Russia war going in the south is well, the attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, and climate diplomacy still happens because we're facing a decadal challenge in front of us. It is something I asked about.

It is, and we are sitting sort of in the middle and the north you've got the U Green Russia war going in the south is well, the attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, and climate diplomacy still happens because we're facing a decadal challenge in front of us. It is something I asked about.

You know, when we are talking war, please do not forget that from war, from the conflicts, huge amount of emissions, huge amounts, millions of tones. That's why for us this issue is very important. That's why our one of our initiative truths also related to such call to the countries to announce the CEA is fire, to come to conclusion to stop the war because millions of tones of emissions, and I think it is the big impact to nature, big impact to the climate. And if we will have the positive reaction reflection from the countries to our call, I think it will be very good step to stop their conflicts.

You know, when we are talking war, please do not forget that from war, from the conflicts, huge amount of emissions, huge amounts, millions of tones. That's why for us this issue is very important. That's why our one of our initiative truths also related to such call to the countries to announce the CEA is fire, to come to conclusion to stop the war because millions of tones of emissions, and I think it is the big impact to nature, big impact to the climate. And if we will have the positive reaction reflection from the countries to our call, I think it will be very good step to stop their conflicts.

That's a hopeful note to end on. But we'll find out over the next two weeks whether that hope turns into reality. Thank you, action, Thank you, and thank you for listening to zero and now for the sound of the week, Tell me a lot.

That's a hopeful note to end on. But we'll find out over the next two weeks whether that hope turns into reality. Thank you, action, Thank you, and thank you for listening to zero and now for the sound of the week, Tell me a lot.

You're a Yeah, we are from a group we promote vegany ZM, and we are here to promote veganism because this is a solution for global varmis. And yeah, board began, mord began.

You're a Yeah, we are from a group we promote vegany ZM, and we are here to promote veganism because this is a solution for global varmis. And yeah, board began, mord began.

Thank you.

Thank you.

If you liked this episode, please take a moment to rate or review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode with a friend or with someone who's never heard of Azerbaijan. Like my sister, you can get in touch at Zero Pod at Bloomberg dot Net. Zero's producer is Mighty Lerau, Bloomberg's head a podcast is Sage Bowman and head of Talk is Brendan nunan Our. The music is composed wonderly special thanks to Gender Louis John Ainger, Schwan Wagner, Monique Mulima, Ethan Steinberg, Blake Maples and Jessica beec I am Akshadrati. Back later this week.

If you liked this episode, please take a moment to rate or review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode with a friend or with someone who's never heard of Azerbaijan. Like my sister, you can get in touch at Zero Pod at Bloomberg dot Net. Zero's producer is Mighty Lerau, Bloomberg's head a podcast is Sage Bowman and head of Talk is Brendan nunan Our. The music is composed wonderly special thanks to Gender Louis John Ainger, Schwan Wagner, Monique Mulima, Ethan Steinberg, Blake Maples and Jessica beec I am Akshadrati. Back later this week.