What's Wright? with Nick WrightWhat's Wright - Predicting NFL win totals, NBA Playoffs field + Florida-Houston reaction
Nick Wright is back talking football after the release of the NFL preseason win totals. He breaks down every team’s total and gives his picks for overs and unders. Then, Nick recaps the National Championship between Florida and Houston, as well as Duke’s collapse. Later, Nick recaps LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers' win over the Oklahoma City Thunder from over the weekend and shares his predictions for the Western Conference as the NBA Playoffs approaches. Finally, as always, Nick and Damonza answer your questions. #Volume #Herd
Welcome in walch Draight with the great episode three seventeen, fresh off a wild NCAA Tournament championship game and maybe wilder Western Conference playoff bracket as we head into the final five days of the season, and we have right now five teams all with thirty two losses both of those topics. Shortly on the show, and then as promised last week, we will do our annual NFL Over Unders NFL Win Total show. These these are not locked for us. We will do our preseason gambling show post draft. Obviously it's post free agency, late in training camp where we actually make these bets. Now the heads up for the gambling stuff we're doing shortly. There might be a few that we like so much that we just say we're gonna bet them right now. We will if we say that, we will mark those down and count those toward our season long ledger that we you know, do the accounting for at the very end of the football season. But some of these are just leans in one direction or another. We'll do all of that, uh, before we get to that. Welcome in, Demanse, Demanse, how are you I know this is the single most banal topic of any phone call or even a podcast. But I am curious. What is the weather like in Los Angeles right now?
It's pretty amazing, pretty good, I'd.
Say it is. Still It's April eighth. The Masters starts Thursday. It's forty something degrees in New York. I am. It has gone on long enough that your mother came downstairs today and just said to me, I think I need to go away for a month. Not me, her, She's like, I just I just need to go somewhere warm for a month. She said, the weather is just sapping my energy. So at some point the way, it's gotta get warm in New York. At that point, deep, it's man. Usually April's like a top tier New York month. Whatever. Nobody cares. All right, here's what missed the cut. Alex Ovechkin breaks a record that I did not think was breakable, the Gretzky scoring record. Now, let me also say something else I don't. I think it's very important on this show to not pretend to be an expert on everything. People get themselves in trouble. You pretend to be an expert on everything, you might all of a sudden find yourself talking lebron in the morning, Govetchkin in the afternoons, and the Gaza Strip at night. No one would do that and then seriously say they're gonna run for president and then be wrong about all three. I try not to, you know, pretend that I know to mix some tariff stuff in there as well be an expert on everything. But I'm a diehard sports fan, and I'm enough of a diehard sports fan to know Wayne Gretzky is the only athlete I've ever seen that if you go to his Wikipedia page, even though the Internet is endless and a page can just scroll forever, and you're like, hey, what records does Wayne Gretzky have, you have to go to a separate Wikipedia page where it's like, actually, all of Wayne Gretzky's records are here. So I just assumed this was unbreakable. And then when I heard Ovechkin broke it, or when I obviously I knew he was going to break it the last month or so it's been in the news, and I just said, again, folks can say bad sports fan, Nick for not knowing this. I assumed Ovechkin must be like a Bobby Ors style guy that played until his mid forties, and then I saw alex Ovechkin after he broke the record, and I was like, oh, confirmed, this guy played until his late forties. Turns out alex Ovechkin is thirty nine years old. That is a hard thirty nine for alex Ovechkin. He's younger than me now and and incredibly wealthy. Say it again, No, it's not just the it's not just the greay. It just like and maybe it's the you know, the the that coming up you know in Russia is tough. I don't know, man, but alex Ovechkin, for a guy that rich and that successful, you know, that's a hard thirty nine. But unbelievable. He breaks s Gretzky's record. Everyone thought it was unbreakable. Here's something almost as unbelievable. Gino Wriama Demonse has coached in thirteen National Championship Games. That in and of itself is remarkable. He's twelve and one in those games. Twelve and one in the National Championship Games. I'm so happy for Paige. I think she you know that her recruiting class, the top five for her high school class page, Angel Caitlin, Oh the Bank, Cameron Brink Yes. And then Cardosa. Those five, all of them champions, oddly except for Caitlyn and Page had to stick around a year longer because she blew out her knee. She got her title. Hopefully Juju can have the same trajectory gets delayed because you blew out the knee, goes and win the title. And then the other big game this weekend that didn't miss the couple. We'll do it quickly and then we'll get to it more. In the West playoff push segment was the Lakers dog walking the Thunder and my what, what's your little woe?
Thunder?
They weren't in that game. I mean, they played all their guys and the I said on the TV show Friday that the perfect weekend for the Lakers was beating the Thunder. I'm sorry, beating the Pelicans, beating the Thunder and then sitting everyone Tuesday and when they play the Thunder again tonight. And I don't know if you've seen the points spread in that game, but it's okay see minus fifteen because Vegas thinks that's exactly what the Lakers are gonna do, and basically denying the Thunder the opportunity for any get back, leaving in the back of their head. Wait a minute, Luca knocked us out of the playoffs last year. They just crushed us this year. Luca's team, we still have no one to guard him. That to me is absolutely ideal, particularly when the other reason I said they should rest guys is they play they being the Lakers the MAVs tomorrow. So the Lakers since Saturday will have played the Thunder the Thunder again and then the MAVs. The MAVs have not played since Saturday, so the Lakers it would be their third game in four nights. The MAVs would be their first game in four nights. So now they're letting their guys rest and be ready for that game knowing and again more on this in the Western Rammicks playoff bracket stuff, if the Lakers go two and two in their final four, they lock up the three seed. If we just chalk tonight up as a loss, what it means is MAVs Rockets Tanking Blazers final game of the year. If you win two of those games, you lock up the three seed, which is gold for the Western Conference. My other takeaway for thunder Lakers before we get to last night's championship game. The Thunder, more so than any team the Western Conference, have so much depth defensively, and even the Thunder found themselves in a spot where it's like, hold on, if my best wing defender is on Luca and my second best wing defender is on Lebron, then who the hell is guarding Austin Reeves. And when you look at the Western Conference playoffs and you look across every team the Lakers could play and say power rank their wing defenders, all of these teams have at least one really good one, a couple have two pretty good ones. Only the Thunder have three really good ones. Everyone else, Austin Reeves is just going to be feasting on a meeting bad defensive player. And the Rockets have two awesome ones in Amen Thompson and Dylan Brooks, But who's the third? And so that's going to be a sneaky, huge edge for the Lakers in any series. As far as I am not going to act as if because of that game, oh there's you know, systemic issues with the Thunder, and Thunder gonna win sixty seven games, they're awesome. The concerns, however, would be as follows. The youth is just never seeing a team this young make the finals, much less win it. Everyone has said that is your second best guy good enough? That's a Jalen Williams chet Holmgren question. We'll see how will the playoff whistle impact Shay? He seemed to get it this weekend against the Rockets and the Lakers and it impacted them a bit. And then this is the last piece of it that I have not heard enough people make the point of when it comes to handicapping the Thunder for this championship. One of the reasons the Thunder have this insane point differential is they are legit twelve quality NBA players deep, and so even when they have guys out, and certainly when they go to their bench, their bench is so much better than the other team's bench in the playoffs. How good your ninth, tenth, eleventh, and twelve guys are is mostly irrelevant because you're really just playing seven or eight guys, So will that edge be muted a bit? Those are all legitimate questions. Remember, like rate subscribe review, We're just this close to two hundred thousand on YouTube. That'd be awesome to get there during you know, maybe the play in of the or the NBA Playoffs, certainly in the first round so and you can watch us live on YouTube. Will also, by the way, be doing these emergency kind of reaction shows throughout the NBA Playoffs. You can get those not just on YouTube, where we'd love for you to like, rate, subscribe, and review. It helps us a ton, but also on iTunes, Spotify, everything. But now to the championship game last night Demon Day. I was pulling for Houston because of our ties to Houston. I also like Kelvin Sampson, tell us what happened?
Well, yeah, I mean Houston went from winning that crazy one against Duke on Saturday. I mean we have I've been pulling for Houston, but that rep should be investigated from that game on Saturday. Okay, but yeah, so they lost the crazy one to Florida yesterday off of the potential double drib or whatever. What are your thoughts on the tournament and how it ended.
I mean, I have a lot of thoughts here. Houston did not get a shot up, not on the final possession, on their final four possessions. They didn't hit the rim seemingly for the last two minutes of that game. And somebody had a tweet that I wish I could give them credit because I thought it was really funny and actually pretty kind of profound almost talking about Houston's style because they're just such a ferocious, relentless, tough defensive team. Where they said, I imagine Houston's practices are just three hours of suicides and punching each other in the face, and that kind of is how they played. But there's downside to that, which is they never you never felt like they were against a great team going to be able to definitively put them away. And they had opportunities against Florida to put them away when that defense was just giving Florida fits, and Florida's you know, stuck around, just like Houston did against Duke, just long enough to where you see the college kids tighten up and Houston's kids tightened up. Walter Clayton Junior, you know, had a great final flourish in this game after you know, with five minutes left in this game, it looked like this was gonna be the first game in two years he had a sixty one game streak of hitting a three. He didn't hit one until late in the game. He obviously didn't score his first basket until late late in the first half or was it early second half, I don't even remember, but Florida was able to stick around and then steal it at the end. Not getting a shot off in that spot is just the stuff of apps nightmares for a coach. But they didn't get a shot off like it was if you just look at what Houston did over the final two minutes, because one of the possessions they did get a shot up, it was essentially an air balled layup. They were getting no good looks. And when you go to the waning moments of the game, after LJ. Cryer made missed a layup and then tipped in his own miss with two thirty left, here were Houston's possessions. Made a free throw, then missed a free throw, badly missed the three offensive rebound miss jumper, offensive rebound, turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover. To not get a shot on the rim in the final two minutes of the ninety seconds of the game is just so crushing and you feel so sick for Kelvin Samson.
Yeah, but my I mean.
Because again, yeah, seventy say it again that Oh yeah, well, no, I'm talking about the coach LJ. Cryer. LJ. Cryer the back to back turnovers and then Emmanuel Sharp had the back to back turnovers late. I mean both there. But for Kelvin who was a great coach, got a show cause penalty and got run out of college basketball for a while, came back and what he's done at Houston is remarkable since he's been there. It's our buddy. Buddy's probably too strong. But the kid we root for, Quinton Grimes, you know, was there and they were a legitimate contender since he's been there. So Calvin Sampson took over a mediocre team. His first year, they're thirteen to nineteen. His next two years they're in the NIC and then since then, this is what they've done. Twenty seven wins, and they won a tournament game, thirty three wins, and get popped in the Sweet sixteen, then COVID year, then twenty eight wins, Final four, thirty two wins, Elite eight, thirty three wins, Sweet sixteen, thirty two wins, Sweet sixteen, thirty five wins, lose the championship game by two, and you know, you you hope he has another great shot. You don't know if he's gonna have another great shot. He turned seventy next season, he'll keep coaching. But man, oh man, it as much as they stole one from Duke, they absolutely let one get away. And so I had two recurring thoughts in that game. One was Duke had to be watching this game, like, you gotta be fucking kidding me, Like the we we should be in this game. And you know they they their collapse was different than Houston's. There. I know you put it on that you hate. I mean, it's a bad call. Bad college drafts are bad, and the review process in college basketball is truly truly awful. And what nobody ever acknowledges when they're like, oh they have to get it right and oh, we've got the tenths of a second could matter. And I bring up every time, you know what also matters fatigue and these this idea that being the better conditioned team should you should lose all edge from that in the final two minutes of these games, because every out of bounds call there's going to be a one to four minute break to review it. I hate it so much, But set that aside. My other takeaway from really this entire tournament, but certainly the final four. We had four number one seats. We had by kin Palm rankings, four of the best college basketball teams of the last decade all playing. And despite that, you've never seen a better illustration for the glaring and massive gap between the talent and skill level between guys who are good enough to be starters and big time players for the best college basketball teams in the country and guys who are good enough to play in the NBA. Like college basketball in the modern era, where guys don't stick around typically for that long, the best players never do, and teams don't stick together. The gap between that and the skill and talent and ability it takes to play in the NBA is the widest it's ever been, and it's why a guy like Walter Clayton junior, who is going to be goes into the tournament a fringe first round pick, can just dominate and when most outstanding player like it is. I know there are some people, particularly where I'm from in the Midwest, that swear and I always thought this was an odd stance to hold love college basketball hate the NBA. Now I'm not saying you have to like the NBA more than college basketball. Again, they're different sports to teach their own. But that was always felt to me a more than a little racially charged opinion. The love college basketball hate the NBA take because you simply never hear that in college football. Certainly have people that like college football more than the NFL, but I've never once met a single person who's, like, I love college football, can't stand the NFL. But you do hear that sometimes College basketballt least where I grew up, used to all the time, and I always thought that was a little quizzical. But they're they're just so vastly different products. Throughout this tournament, when guys made open shots, you were impressed. In the NBA, if a guy misses an open shot, you are shocked. And this game, being stuck in the forties late into the second half, just a vivid reminder of how incredibly difficult it is for the guys who actually can make it to the league. But congrats of Florida. Walter Clayton junior going into this year, Demonse on most mock drafts was not even a second rounder going into this tournament. In most mock drafts, was a fringe first second rounder. And now he's probably gonna be a late lottery pick. He's a little older. He's not that athletic man, old man that say it.
Again, late lottery pick.
No, it's awesome, it's great. What he has working against him is he doesn't have the great athleticism and he's played for five years and so or four years. So people are always, you know, twenty two to twenty three, how high is the ceiling? But I wonder if he could have a Dalton Connects style draft day where when he gets he gets drafted by a decent team or a good team and people are like, oh man, he can maybe help you immediately, even if he doesn't have like all star potential. All right, let's go to the NBA before we get to our NFL over unders.
So things are gonna come down to the wire. On the West side, everyone from the three to eight seed are separated by max of two games, and then everybody from the four to eight are basically tied and losses. So how do you think it's gonna go?
So, first of all, credit to the Rockets for removing themselves from this group. The Rockets are I I thought the Rockets were about to get punched in the face by the schedule because and I think we talked about it last week, their final five games were Thunder Warriors, and then and they played those two already and won them. And then it goes Clippers Lakers, Nuggets. But it doesn't matter now because and this actually could work in the Lakers favor. I don't know if what the Rockets will do, but the Rockets just need to either win one or have the Lakers lose one and they lock up the two seed. So because the Lakers max out at fifty two wins, the Rockets already at fifty two wins, so if the Lakers. So here's why I say this could work out in the Lakers favor. If the Lakers lose tonight to the Thunder, which they will, the Rockets lock the two seed. No matter what. Will that make the Rockets in Game eighty one against the Lakers rest some people I don't know now, maybe they would feel like they don't need to. But set that aside. Credit to the Rockets for handling their business. Now to the three through eight, and we can throw it on the screen the Lakers. The reason that Lakers two game lead is actually a three game lead is this. They have the tiebreaker over literally every single team on the screen. There, Nuggets are the four, Clippers, of the five, Warriors, of the six, Timbrelves of the seven, Grizzlies of the eight, Lakers forty eight and thirty, Nuggets forty seven and thirty two, and then Clippers, Warriors, Timberlves, Grizzlies all forty six and thirty two. The Lakers have the tiebreaker with every one of those teams. That is a symptom of the fact. In one of the craziest stats of the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder this year the Western Conference are thirty five and thirteen. The Los Angeles Lakers against the Western Conference are thirty four and fourteen. So why are the Thunder gonna win sixty seven and the Lakers are right now sitting at forty eight. Well, the Thunder are twenty nine to one against the East and the Lakers are They are fourteen and sixteen against the East. So I mean that's the difference in the standings, but that is given the Lakers the tiebreaker over everyone. So I think it's gonna go like this. The Lakers lose tonight, they beat Dallas and then maybe they beat Houston. If they don't beat Houston, they certainly beat Portland and they are the three. And now the interesting piece of it, Denver, which is falling apart, has not recovered from the Westbrook debacle. Joker can just put up four, forty five, fifteen and fifteen every night, it doesn't matter. And I don't know if you heard what Michael Malone said the other day, when Michael Malone said, yeah, Jamal Murray, we hope he's ready for the playoffs. That's concerning. I think Denver is going to lose to Memphis. Let's assume they beat Houston, because that'll be game eighty two for Houston, and Houston likely is not gonna, you know, be playing their people. Whether or not Denver falls to the play d will likely be determined by how they do against Sacramento in Denver when they play on what do they play tonight or Wednesday? I should have had that up in front of me. I apologize Denver plays tomorrow when they play Sacramento tomorrow, the Clippers again, so much of this is predicated by what the Rockets do as far as resting guys, cause the Clippers play the Spurs tonight, so the Clippers will win tonight, and then the Clippers play Houston next. But the question is is Houston, assuming the Lakers lose tonight, gonna be playing their guys. If they are, then that should be a great game. The Clippers after that are at Sacramento at Golden State. Golden State has an absolute three consecutive layups at Phoenix. I saw Phoenix in person at the Garden Friday night that they are cooked, so pix Golden State will beat Phoenix, then the Spurs, who don't want to win, then the Blazers. So Golden State is going to be forty nine and thirty two going into the final game against the Clippers, which the Clippers are going to need to win potentially to avoid the play in, potentially for seeding. So Warriors Clippers game eighty two massive. Right. The Grizzlies are at Milwaukee, at Memphis, and then home for Brooklyn in Utah. So Minnesota, Brooklyn, and Utah are auto wins. Those teams are not trying. If they beat Milwaukee tonight, then Minnesota has a real chance of not only climbing out of the play in, but climbing all the way to the four to five line. And then Memphis it likely comes they're at Charlotte. That's to win home for Minnesota at Denver, home for Dallas. So let's let's do it like this. What are the guaranteed victories on teams schedule for the Lakers Just one game eighty two against Portland. The Lakers will then need to win one other game to lock up the three Oka se Dallas, Houston. They're gonna lose Okay sees. They've beat Dallas or Houston for Denver, zero guaranteed victories Sacramento, Memphis, Houston, So no guaranteed victories for the Clippers. One game the Clippers put them at forty seven wins. They have the Spurs game, then Houston, Sacramento, Golden State for Golden State, three guaranteed victories Phoenix, Spurs, Portland, and then that Clipper game for Minnesota. So put Golden State at forty nine wins. I'm gonna do this in the so I can just see it. So Denver forty seven with three questions, the Clippers forty seven with three questions. As far as the games, the Warriors forty nine, one question game Minnesota at Milwaukee, at Memphis tof home for Brooklyn and Utah they're at forty eight with two questions, and then Memphis at Charlotte three questions. Yeah, forty exactly forty seven. So the games that are going to determine the Western Conference playoff bracket is all of Denver's games against Sacramento, Memphis in Houston, the Clippers games against Houston, Sacramento, and Golden State. For the Golden State that one game against the Clippers, and for Minnesota, they're games at Milwaukee and at Memphis. That's it. And so right now I would think the most likely seeding is as follows. One Oklahoma City locked, two Houston essentially locked, three Lakers close to essentially locked for Golden State, five, Minnesota, six the Clippers, Lakers, Clippers around won't be fun. Seven Denver eight, Memphis. That's how I think it's gonna fall out.
Is that ideal for you? Are there any matchups things? Well?
The ideal for the Lakers well, and by the way, that's set the seven eight obviously, then there's a play in situation. The ideal for the Lakers. Everybody wants Memphis. The ideal for the Lakers is Memphis getting to the three line. I don't think that's happening. I would would I rather play Minnesota or would I rather play the Clippers. I would rather play Clipper's been really tough since Kawhi came back, since Kawai has been playing like this, I'd probably rather play Minnesota now later in the playoffs, I'd take my chances with sadly Kawhi not holding up, but in round one with him playing like this, they're dangerous. The thing is, everybody's dangerous. But if you're the Lakers, you can't worry about round one. If it were to play out to where you are on the opposite side of the bracket of OKC and round two looks like it's Golden State OKC, you sign up for that if you you know, if you if you're the Lakers, and you're only gonna have to be one of Golden State or Oklahoma City, and they have to they play each other in a war in round two, while with respect, you're probably playing the Rockets. That is the ideal situation, and I think it's what they've set themselves up.
I think the Rockets are going to be dangerous in the playoffs. I know you say, and they're young and all that. I think they have a great championships.
That's fair. They have and they have a great coach. Dylan Brook's gonna see Lebron in a playoff series and once again be like it's Dylan Brook's time, and I don't trust Jaialen Green. Now, Amen Thompson is a monster as a young player, and Shingoon's great. Shingoon's great. But I again, the West is brutal. None of these are easy, but it's you.
Know it easy. I'm not saying like they can win, Okay, I said, I know, I said defense wins championships. But I think they can mess somebody's road up, think knock a team out early.
But you but you're kind of treating them demonte like they're not the two seed. They're like the two seed playing to their seed means they're in the conference finals. I don't see that happening. Like now, listen, maybe they maybe somebody clips clips the Lakers and they beat them, or maybe they can beat the Lakers. But I I think Houston, Houston has earned enough for me to wear at this point. I will almost assuredly be picking them in their Round one series. I don't I don't know, you know what I say that I don't know if i'd pick them against Minnesota. I think Minnesota could be tough.
But yeah, I could see.
Yeah, no, they could win. I just but I think I'd probably pick Minnesota. This is always fun. So we are going to go division by division all thirty Now I am not I will address all thirty two teams win totals, but there's what I've already looked at this obviously quite a bit. Some of these I'm just like, oh, okay, that line is right, Like I you know, usually Vegas is pretty good at these, And anybody that's gonna give you at this point in the year a lean on all thirty two, that's too much for me. Shout out, by the way, double shout outs. Actually, shout out to Zach Lowe for bringing his podcast back, The Zach Lowe Show signed on with Bill Simmons and The Ringer, And shout out to Bill who last year in his preseason Over Unders podcast went twenty seven and five with preseason win totals, which is just remarkable. So double shout outs to those guys. All right, this is the way too Early Over Unders. Start with the AFC East. We'll do each division basically from highest projected win total to lowest. Demon's a give me each team and then I'll tell you if I have a lien or not.
First we've got the Buffalo Bills other over unders set at eleven and a half.
Over under set eleven and a half, heavy juice minus won forty five on the over, and this, to me is that number is just right, and I'll stay away from it like that. If I had to pick one, I would go over. However, minus won forty five's too much, and I mean they're smart people expect the Bills at this point, with healthy Josh Allen, you're gonna win double digit games. It'd be a hard under to go with, but I'll stay away from that.
Next, you got the Dolphins over under at eight and a half.
That's exactly that's the end, with a little bit of juice on the under minus one thirty. That is to me a exactly right line. I think the Dolphins will win eight or nine games. That is perfect. Last year, by the way, the preseason total was ten and a half. But I am that to me is a stay away.
Next one, we got the Patriots. They're over unders eight and a half, all.
Right, So this is juice to the under as it should be. It's minus one forty to the under. This is, in my opinion, an outrageous total. So now I should note and I should have done this earlier on it all, you always have to look at what divisions each division's So everyone has their three strength of schedule games a year, but then you also play your own division, and then what are the other divisions you play? For the AFC East, they draw one of the toughest divisions in the AFC North and probably the weakest division in the NFC South. So that to me, you basically that's a wash. And so the reason I'm saying this is, whenever you're doing these preseason win totals, check and see what divisions the other uh you know that those teams are playing, and kind of power rank the divisions in your own head and then figure out, you know, are they do they get two of the easier ones two of the harder ones or is it like this where you get one tough one in the AFC North, one easy one in the NFC South and it evens out. So what the Patriots have going for them is the last play schedule, they're extra games.
Well maybe side of the Bills.
But here's the thing. They're really bad and I just don't know that they have done enough to have a competent offense. They upgraded it, coach Drake may should be better in year two, that offensive line will still be a disaster. They for the third consecutive year, maybe fourth, do not have a single draftable fantasy football skill player. There is not a single wide receiver, running back, or tight end on that team that you would want on your fantasy football team. I don't think Stefan Diggs is gonna have a big impact. I think the Patriots would be thrilled to win eight games. I'm sorry to win six games. The fact that this team could win eight games and the underhits is outrageous. I love the under for the New England Patriots. I will take under eight and a half, and that's a bet we can put on my season long. I think that thing drops to seven and a half before the year, especially when the draft plays out and they aren't able to get Abdulla Carter or Travis Hunter. Not that a rookie should really move a win total. I will take under for the Patriots. Last AFC's team, Demantsey.
Oh We got the Jets. They're over unders five and a half.
Yeah, I will take the over here. So they got so much better in from a culture, stability, maturity standpoint in the coaching staff. They are not gonna be under the spotlight like they were like last year. I think that it will be refreshing for that team to not have this For everyone on that team who spent their whole career with the Jets, every year of their career, the only story, the only thing people were focused on was the quarterback, whether it was Zach Wilson going to get it together, Aaron Rodgers coming to save us, Aaron Rodgers Tours Achilles, Aaron Rodgers last year. This year, it's just going to be about Aaron Glenn trying to set a culture, running the damn ball, playing good defense. They I think that they won five games last year, and I think this year they should be better, not necessarily better at quarterback, but not worse at quarterback, and better a little bit better everywhere else and not have the energy constantly sucked out of the room. And I think staying out of the spotlight because they are not going to be a disgusted team, will be good for them. I could absolutely see Aaron Glenn getting there, that team finding its way to seven wins. I like the Jets over. So for the AFC East, the Bills, I am staying away from the Dolphins, I am staying away from I am on the Patriots under, and I am on the Jets over. Let's go Demons to the AFC North.
We got the Ravens at the over unders eleven and a half.
This is a tentative over for Baltimore. Now, I would not bet the under on any year you have a healthy Lamar Jackson. Okay, he's an all time regular season player and just guarantees you, if he's healthy, double digit wins. The reason I'm saying tentative is not because I might go under, but I'm not sure if that's a bet all actually make, but I do. It does feel like last year was kind of a worst case scenario regular season for them and they still won twelve games, and so that to me is I lean over. You feel like they're always gonna be well coached. The defense came around by the end of last year. Lamar is unbelievable, and you anticipate that they can win twelve thirteen games almost every season. The juice is dead even essentially on the over of the under. The Lamar injury stuff does worry you a bit, so I would just want to see him get through the preseason and offseason everything totally healthy. I also, before I make any better on the Ravens, Demonse, I have to make sure that Health and Human Services, if that department still exists, isn't projecting like a bad cold and flu season, because that absolutely can cost the Ravens a game, because Lamar has the immune system of a small Victorian child. As a funny tweet said once, yeah, well of course, and so but I lean over for Baltimore.
Next Bengals over under nine and a half.
This number is just right. I would stay away from it. The juice is heavily heavily on the over and at minus one fifty. And I don't know why we would think they're going to be a much different team than last year. A great offense, a bad defense, score a ton of points, lose a lot of games they shouldn't because defense is bad. And so I that to me is a stayaway. Next team, demanse.
Oh, we got the Steelers. They're over unders eight and a half.
I'll take the under to me, this is now that means I'm betting Tomlin to not continue as well. You know what, that's not true. I could win this bet and have Tomlin's record extend because it's never at a losing season, So eight eight and one keeps that thing going. Uh, not that because the tie doesn't count as half a win. Sorry, drop some tie doesn't count as half a win when it comes to this. But I will go under because one of two things is going to happen, Demnsey, one of three things. Pardon me. Either Aaron Rodgers is not going there and they are starting Mason Rudolph, or Aaron Rodgers is not going there and they are starting rookie either Shadoor Sanders or Jackson Dark or Aaron Rodgers is gonna announce tomorrow on McAfee or sometime in a month he is going there and bring that entire circus with him. And I think nothing would be more poetic than us finding out what's the only thing that can end Mike tomlin streak of above five hundred or better years, And the answer is bringing in forty two year old diva Aaron Rodgers. So I will go under for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, remember last year I was heavy on them, missing the playoffs and going under and all of that, and they cost me a ton of futures. So I could be wrong, but I will go under on Aaron Rodgers or the Steelers without Aaron Rodgers. Either way, I think it's time for a bit of a reset in Pittsburgh. I'll go under there next.
All right, Uh, you got the Browns. They're over unders four and a half.
I mean, we don't know who's gonna be playing quarterback for them, we don't know what they're doing in the draft. That number is just really a slap in their face. A number that low four and a half. You just don't see that very often. I'm gonna stay away. I can't bet under four and a half. But I also obviously A'm not gonna bet on the Cleveland Browns. So thus far, through two divisions, I lean Patriot or I'm heavy on Patriots under. I like the Jets over. I lean Steelers or Ravens over, and I like the Steelers under. Let's go to the AFC South.
Oh, we got the Texans. They're over unders set at nine and a half.
That's just right. I worry about their injuries at wide receiver, you know they will. Nico is a guy who's an excellent player. He's dealt with injuries in his career. Obviously, Tank Dell is going to be out all year. They didn't bring back Digs, they traded away Tonsil, so you worry, or they just changed offensive coordinators. But the defense should be really good and Demiko's excellent. CJ's really good. So it feels like a nine or ten win team. Will stay away from it.
Next we got the Colts. They're over under seven and a half.
I you know what, I I don't have a ton of Colts opinions this year. I don't really want to spend a lot of time thinking about the Colts. I'm not that interested in the Colts. Seven and a half sounds right. We'll stay away from it. You don't have to bet everything shit to.
Who My co worker he's he's a big fan of the Colts, and he always says that everybody says the Colts is just like nobody.
He correct, Yeah, there's there's there. I mean, basically, that's this whole division. Both of the Souths just get totally you know what I mean, Distrigard.
But next uh got the Jags. They're over under seven and a half.
I'm back, baby Jags. All right over better head, new head coach Trevor Healthy, Brian Thomas Junior in year two, all of these things.
I think the right way is definitely go over here. But if they finished with less than that, what happens with Trevor Lawrence after this season.
Is not great?
Right?
Yeah? No, no, then people start they start talking about, you know, how can we get out of the contract like all that stuff. It's not great, which is why it's not gonna happen. Trevor Lawrence's returned to glory this season. He's listen, I know people don't you know, we're sick of me saying this, but it is true. Trevor Lawrence. He's just twenty five man, twenty five years old. He's been saying, age's bo Nick's basically like. He had a brutal rookie year his second year, led them to win the division and a great playoff comeback. His third year, they were eight and three until he suffered injuries to three different parts of his body in three consecutive weeks and had to miss time in their season fell apart and last year season from hell, I'm not quitting you, Trevor over Jaggs put it in pen. I'm betting that one. They are getting back in the playoff mix. That's all I'm saying. Just in the playoff mix and Liam going, I don't care if you said Duval weird, you got the best out of Baker. I like you. I am with the Jacksonville Jaguars over seven and a half.
Next with you there, you got the Titans. They're over unders five and a half.
See with plus one twenty five on the under, and they're gonna be starting a rookie quarterback from day one. Give me the under, Like, give me the under with cam Ward even if he's good. I think that that there's gonna be a lot of growing pains. I don't know that I trust Brian Callahan. It's and I'm getting plus money on it. Like now this one, I will admit I am going to bet this, but I am going to wait to bet this because since it's minus one point fifty on the over all these lines. Obviously, by the way, courtesy of our friends at DraftKings, I should have been saying that earlier. Uh plus one twenty five on the under. This might move to six and a half, and I love it at six and a half. I like it a lot at five and a half. I will bet this at some point, just not this moment, but starting a rookie quarterback, shakey head coach, and oh, by the way, line is an odd subject to change. I need to tell you guys, but you guys all know that you're Titans.
Get six wins, can war you mean he said, I mean they can was going to go to the super Bowl last year. He's a rookie quarterback.
Yeah, but the so a couple things. The Bears were coming off a seven win season, not three and fourteen. I was wrong about the Bears coach. The Bears ended up having a dufus coach and Calb's way way, way, way way better.
Than cam Ward.
Yeah, it's not even close. All right, finish it off on the AFC West.
So we got the Chiefs. They're over runners eleven and a half. This is insulting, insulting. The highest win total projected wind total.
Yeah it should be twelve and a half. They won seventeen games last year. They won fifteen in the regular season, and everyone told me they weren't that good. They they they could. They went fifteen and one last year in games mahomes play because they sat out Week seventeen. The oh, I haven't been giving you guys the division stuff. Darn it. Here's the other thing that I really like for the whole AFC West. They're division games, as they get all four teams in the AFC South awesome, and they get the NFC East, which is only as in my opinion, one great team in the Eagles. Now, obviously the chief strength of schedule games are brutal their strength of schedule, So they get their own division plus the AFC South and the AFCAS and then the strength of schedule games are Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit. So that's the strength of schedule is you know, outrageous. But the Chiefs have games against Texans called Jags Titans, and then four more games against or two more games I should say, Cowboys Giant. There's six games they win. They go five and one in the division. Every year, there's your eleven games. And so then let's say they only go four and two in the division this year, so now you're at ten. That would mean of the following games, Detroit Baltimore, Buffalo, Philly, Washington. He's got to win two of them, and so I the betting the Chiefs over every year since Mahomes has been there, hell, since Andy's been there. But it's been super profitable since Malomes have been there. They've hit it six of seven years. The only year they didn't hit it was two years ago and they made up for that by winning the Super Bowl. So yeah, I'm not the Chiefs stats an over.
The Chiefs faced the Eagles next year and it's going to be in Kansas City winning the season. Would you want to see that game?
When?
Would you want that?
Great question?
First game of the season.
No, because it's just like no, because the Chiefs don't get to Well, first of all, that can't happen because the Eagles are the defending champs. They get to host the you know, a season opener on Thursday, so it can't be the first game of the year. Here's what I don't care when it is. I just want both teams to be on regular rest. I don't want one team to be coming off a weird schedule. I you know what, the whatever it is. There are some rumors, uh the the that the Chiefs could start the year in Brazil, but I so I don't know, but just I just want both teams on regular rest, all right, But by the way, you know what, let's do this before we get to the rest of the AFC West, I want to talk to you guys about our friends at DraftKings. Who's scoring big in the NBA this season? You are with all the new ways to get on the action at DraftKings sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NBA Monster Slams dish in the rock to clean the glass, get behind your favorite players and the prop bets you can make on DraftKings, the home of NBA player props. Ready to place your first bet, try betting on something simple like picking how many points your favorite player will have. Go to the DraftKings sportsbook app and make your pick. So some of the lines that are available tonight. Jason Tatum's total twenty five and a half against the Knicks. Assuming Tatum plays, I you know, I would be leaning Tatum over twenty five and a half points, and then also another one. Jimmy Butler. His total is at seventeen and a half against Phoenix. Jimmy has not been popping off for big point totals thus far. However, I just saw the Suns in person, and I they don't seem that interested in defense, So you know I would me personally, I would be going, I would be thinking Butler over seventeen and a half points. Again, it's not betting advice. It's just how I look at those two lines. Lines and odds subject to change first time. Here's something special just for you. New DraftKings customers bet five dollars, get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Instantly take it to the rack. With DraftKings sports Book, every point counts and this one helps me out a lot, guys. If you guys can do this, download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Use code right Wright, that's code right for new customers to get one hundred fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem call one eight hundred gam In New York call eight seven seven eight hope in why or text hope in why, which is four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling. Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill, casino and resort in Kansas twenty one plus age in eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKNG dot co slash b ball. All right, demonse, let's go back to the AFC West. We just did the Chiefs over eleven and a half. Give me the last few.
Oh, we got the charges that are over UNDERDS nine and a half, so and I'm gonna.
Lump the Ronco's in with them as well. They're also at nine and a half. To me, both of these are stay aways. I think both of these are gonna be very trendy bets. I think a lot of people are going to like either or both of these teams to hit double digit wins. They both hit it last year, they both made the playoffs last year. I now they have the same benefit the Chiefs have, which is the AFC South and the NFC East. But I think people are a little too high on the Chargers, who I don't think are going to have the turnover numbers they had last year. And I think people are a little too high on bon Knicks. Now again, if I thought people were way way off, I'd be saying go under. But I think both. I think both those teams are gonna be hovering around at the end of the year eight nine to ten wins, so I would stay away, and then that gives us the Raiders Demons.
And they're over under six malf.
I love the over for the Las Vegas Raiders. I know that probably shocks people, but when you combine the following things. They had a bottom three coach last year, they replaced him with a top ten coach in Pete Carroll. They had a bottom three quarterback situation. They replace him with top twelve quarterback and Gino Smith. They have a last place schedule. They are going to be able to draft an impact player at number six. Pete, I think maybe Ashton Genty. Pete Carroll wants to win. Right now, everyone is gonna be all over the Broncos of the Chargers. I think it's the Raiders that could finish second in the AFC West. I think Pete Carroll has the Raiders fighting for the final wild card spot in the AFC in year one. I like the Raiders over six and a half. So my AFC bets that I like Patriots under eight and a half, Jets over five and a half, Steelers under eight and a half, Ravens over eleven and a half, Jags over seven and a half, Titans under five and a half, Chiefs over eleven and a half, and the Las Vegas Raiders under six and a half. In the least surprising news ever, Demon's a I went way too long, and we're gonna do the NFC on Thursday, so I don't want to rush through the NFC. But uh, you know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, we have a ton more to go. So well, I liked how we did this. Do some NBA news and everything Thursday to start the show, do the over unders for the second half of the show. I thought that worked well, and so AFC we just gave them to you. NFC we will do on Thursday. Let's ask some listener questions demands. You have a question?
Well, yeah, I mean I saw on Twitter that they were bringing back dire Wolves. I hit Daniel up about this and said that should go somewhere else in the show. It was really bad take, But I think it's what's going on.
Know what's the take? Let me hear your take.
I think that's insane that they're that they're messing with stuff like that. I don't know what reason we would have for it, unless it's like beneficial for the I don't know.
So it's not a bad it's not a bad take. It's first of all. Second of all, hand up, not afraid to admit things. I thought dire wolves were always make believe. I didn't know that was a thing. I knew they were in Game of Thrones, but I thought they were make believe like dragons, like I thought it was just something from fantasy. I didn't know, like I obviously knew. Well, that's a separate discussion there is did dragons ever exist? Is not as dumb of a question as some people think. I will say that, but set that aside. I obviously knew, like you know, like wooly mammoths existed and the Megalodon existed. I didn't know that horse sized wolves existed. I thought that was purely from Game of Thrones. So I know that this is a little Jurassic Park ish, and that didn't go well, but I think it would be sick man if we could reanimate some of the giant animal life from world history and put it on an island somewhere and let them and like see it. As long as they can't fly, man, as long as they can't fly and can't swim, I think i'd be I'd love to see a dire wolf. I think it'd be awesome. I don't know they existed. I get it's a little scary. I understand, yeah, And I'm not necessarily for the dinosaurs coming back.
I mean I just saw, like, I don't think it was a terrordacty. There was a specific name for it, but the beak was probably about as long as this room, and like just to imagine that thing was in the air, like people have not grown up.
The producer asking that I was stop watching Jurassic Park after forty minutes. They made a lot of grievous errors there and creating the ones that can fly obvious the fly and swim ones are. To me, that's a big mistake. But we if we had I keep reading about these islands that no people live on that we just added tariffs to I didn't even know about these islands Head Island, in the place all the penguins live or whatever. There's these islands that no one lives on. What if we reanimated them there? I'm not against it. Hayes asks the question that you know people have been wondering.
So going, Hey, Nick, are you still training for the triathlon? And if so, what is it scheduled for? That's over?
It's not yet scheduled. It's not over. It's not over. My training has hit a hiccup, I will admit, but I've got a lot of time. I've got a lot of time. And so am i as gung ho as I was not quite? But all your mom has been bullying me because we have this family trip scheduled for early July. Yeah, and she's been going to the gym every single day and she just comes home and body shames me. And her latest thing is she is just convinced that she is stronger than me, like we were. I know, I know. So like yesterday we just bought a new couch and it's getting delivered today. So yesterday we reorganized the living room and so I had to like move around the chairs and everything, and every chance she got, she was just like, oh, do you need me to move? That is that for you? Like just constant bullying right.
For the manhood? That that is all blow the belt. But you know what's what's new with with my mother?
Uh? Yeah, all right, go to Chris's question.
Chris is how do you predict win totals of the schedules ain't even out yet. You got a factor in weeknight games, can say in a road ships, et cetera.
No, so that's fair, Like we know who people are playing, we don't know when they're playing. So that's why I said these are I think there were only two that I said I'm betting right now. One is the Patriots. I don't care if the Patriots got seventeen home games, they're not winning nine, and so I like the Patriots under But you're right, you do have the factor like rest advantage things like that. But we do know who everyone's playing, we just don't know when those games are, so I think, but it's you know, so it's a fair point. But I think NFL has done a really good job of making schedule release feel like a huge event even though we already know who everyone's playing. All right, everybody like great? Subscribe review. Please do that helps us out. We will see you guys on Thursday. Great job demands a great job. Everyone at Blue Duck, everyone at DraftKings, everyone at the Volume. We appreciate you all. Talk to you guys soon. What's right
