RBA's pause for concern | Woolworths slashes prices | OpenAI's biggest capital raise... ever

Published Apr 1, 2025, 6:00 PM

The Reserve Bank of Australia has paused the cash rate at 4.10% because it doesn’t want to make any moves before Trump’s tariffs.

Woolworths slashed the price of its groceries last month to close the gap on Aldi and deflect attention from ASIC and the election campaign.

OpenAI has announced it closed the largest round of capital ever raised by a private tech company - pocketing a tasty $40 billion USD.

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This is what the Flux.

I'm Brettan, I'm justin and it's Wednesday, the second of April.

Chusey boy, it's officially by by to Vintage Sellers and first Choice liquor or as calls like to say they've gone into retirement from April. They'll all co by some version of Liquor Land, which supposedly has much better brand awareness than the others. Seems like all liquor stores still battling against the all mighty Dan Daniel, Dan the Man Murphy, very true.

Man buck mamma. We saw the Reserve Bank make a big call yesterday on the cash rate and we have it all covered in the Flux App, including a deep dive into what a thirty six straight mortgage might look like. So if you're interested in what that is and how potentially could come to Australia and make sure to check it out in the Flux app.

Three truly inspiring stories today, Jessey boy, Let's do it for our first. The Reserve Bank of Australia has paused the cash rate at four point one percent because it doesn't want to make any big moves before Donald J. Trump's tariffs.

The RBA are certainly a cautious lot b man, so this isn't that surprising, tell me all.

Well, juzzy boy. The RBA is obviously Australia Central Bank, which sets the cash rate.

That's the interest rate that thanks lend to each other for borrowing.

So when the RBA's cash rate goes up, the interest rate on your home loan typically goes up, and when the cash.

Rate goes down, the interest rate typically goes down.

Now, in feb the RBA cut the cash rate by zero point two five percent, down to four point one percent.

And homeowners were shook us in a good way because the first cash rate cut they'd enjoyed since November twenty twenty.

And now, Juzzy boy, the RBA crew have met once more with some new members and made their big call for April.

And despite the date being April Fool's Day, the RBA were not clowning around.

I can confirm there were no stand up routines or whoopy cushions on the chairs.

And no, we've dropped rates to zero percent. Just kidding, nah.

They decided to sternly and seriously pause the cash rate at four point one percent.

The main reason they wanted to wait until Donald Trump's global tariffs are in iplemented before making any big decision.

Yep, Trump's tariffs are supposed to come into effect.

Today, or, as he calls it, Liberation Day.

The biggest fear for many economists is that these huge tariffs could lead to global stagflation.

So what is the key learning here?

Stagflation is when a country suffers from stagnant economic growth and high inflation at the very same time.

It's called the terrible two yes ce juz boy.

When wages aren't rising and jobs are not booming, you'd expect economic growth to slow down.

Because when the economy isn't doing well, people and businesses tend to spend less.

But during stagflation, prices keep rising despite a slow economy.

The man Right now, global markets are spooked by the potential impact of Trump's tariffs.

And investors fear that Trump's tariffs will make that nightmare real.

And then, man, we've already seen the caution in the share market, with the NAZDAK one hundred down more than eight percent so far.

This year, and even the ASX two hundred has been down nearly three and a half percent this year so far.

So the man holding rate steady gives the RBA more time to see how this plays.

Out, especially with a wildcard like the US in the mix.

For our second story, Woolies has slashed the price on its groceries last month to close the gap on AUDI and deflect atension from AAAK and the election campaign.

Nothing to legislate here, folks. Just a community serving, small supermarket chain is what we are. What is going on here?

Okay? So we know that Woolies is Australia's largest supermarket chain with nearly thirty seven percent of the grocery market.

And jusiboy, there's a Woolwortz or a Woolies Metro on almost every single corner of this great land.

In fact, be Man Woolarts has over eleven hundred stores across Australia. That is more than there are makers.

And while Woolies has been steadily increasing their grocery prices over the last year or so, March was a totally different story.

Yeah, Woolies cut their prices in March significantly. According to JP Morgan.

The goal has been to bring the grocery price gap with AUDI to its lowest point in two years.

Be Man Let's be honest, the timing is suspiciously convenient.

Yeah, Both Woolies and Coals are under pressure from the AH Triple c's ongoing investigation as well.

As polics being in full crackdown on greedy corporate's mood ahead of the election.

In particular, Woolies and colls have heard threats about legislating against price gouging in supermarkets.

So what is the key learning here?

Supermarkets know the biggest threat to their empires isn't cheaper toilet paper, it's tighter regulation.

And right now, be man, Woolies and coals biggest fear is legislation that will stop them from growing market share and growing profit margin.

There are already laws banning price fixing between supermarkets, there are laws to ban predatory pricing that wipes out smaller competitors, and there are also laws to stop misleading price signage.

But there's no laws stopping a supermarket from just jacking out prices to make more profit.

That's what the government is calling price gouging. So juzzy boy, it's no surprise that as these threats come in, Woolies and Coals are dropping prices.

Yeah, they're now only seven point eight percent and eight point five percent more expensive than Audi, respectively.

Down down from eleven percent plus just last year. That's according to JP Morgan.

So now it's all about the optics for the supermarkets, keeping things look in friendly fair.

For our third and final story, open ai has announced that it's closed the largest round of capital ever raised by a private company, pocketing a tasty forty billion US dollars.

Wow, they've raised more than the whole value of Telstra in just one afternoon, b Man, so tell me more well.

Open Ai launched in twenty fifteen as a nonprofit research lab that focused on exploring AI and ensuring it benefited all of humanity.

In twenty twenty two, b Man open Ai launched its now famous chatbot, chatchapt, which revolutionized how everyone did things like applying for jobs, like getting travel tips, like writing university essays. In fact, be Man chatchpt became the fastest growing consumer app ever, hitting one hundred million users in just two months.

And now chatchpt has more than five hundred million weekly users and open ai has become a household name.

So now open AI's raised forty billion US dollars, which values the company at three hundred billion US dollars.

And Jullie Boyd. This has become the largest ever round of capital raised, more than triple the previous record.

But be Man. Because of the unique structure of open ai as part four profit and part nonprofit, the shares are expected to be issued as convertible notes.

So what's okay learning here?

A convertible note is essentially a load that can be converted into shares of the company at a later date.

There are specific events that cause the convertible note to convert into equity. In this case, the condition is when open ai converts into a four profit structure, which must happen by the end of twenty twenty five.

In fact, be Man, open Ai will only receive ten billion US dollars.

Up front, and if they're unable to convert to a for profit structure, this forty bill may end up being just twenty bill.

Just twenty bill. Flexam, have you ever heard about the thirty year fixed strate mortgage? It is very hot in the US, but it doesn't exist in Australia yet. We break it down in the flux app what it is, how it's used, and why it might be useful to have in Australia as well. To make sure to download the Flux app to check it out.

Thanks for listening and we'll see you on Friday.