Up 1% one day, down an equal amount the next, the stock market’s been serving up a bout of volatility traders haven’t seen all year. There’s plenty to worry about and, by many measures, pessimism among investors is growing.
Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy and a two-decade Wall Street veteran, talks about the mood of the market, value versus growth, why the debt-ceiling reaction was surprising to her and why small-cap stocks can do well going forward – regardless of their earnings trends.
Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor at Bloomberg, and I'm Baldana Hick, Across Acid, reporter at Bloomberg. This week on the show, well, when I was a kid, we didn't have the internet, we didn't have video games. There are only three channels on the TV, but we did have aluminum cans. So most nights in the warmer weather, all the neighborhood kids would gather in someone's yard and play a game called kick the can. And guess what. That's exactly what Congress did this week. They kicked the can down the road on the topic of raising the US debt ceiling, and that has obviously been one of the issues that was causing investor sentiment to deteriorate in the last month. The markets have reacted euphorically. What was that really? It was that all that was keeping benchmark indexes from returning to record highs. We'll get into it with the chief US echoity strategist at a big bank, and as always, we'll close out the episode with the craziest thing we saw in markets this week. So if you saw anything, call us on the Craziest Things hotline at six or six three two four three four nine zero. Leave us a voicemail and maybe we'll play it on the show Phil Dona. Did you play Kick the Can when you're a kid? I didn't, And I cannot even believe that this was a real game. Why it's it's totally a real game because you could use the ball like a soccer ball. The can was I don't know why, maybe, but the can was much better for some reason. It made the noise you got. You would fill it with rocks and then you'd get that noise anyway, How would you close the can if you fill it with rocks? You just strapped the little pebbles inside and then make them anyway. Okay, well it just sounds so fun. That have sounded really genuine. Anyway, maybe there's like a video version of Kick the Can can play. But this is this is what they refer to, uh problem, this sort of problem solving like we saw in the European debt crisis, when every week they'd kick the can further down the road and the markets would go nuts, and then the problem would return in a week and they'd kick it again. But let's get into it with our guests. Shall we Evil do La? Do you know our guest also has a podcast, and not only that, her podcast has slides attached to it. I think we need slides with podcasts. Yeah, she's a she's an inspiration and I listened to her podcast. She comes out with reports beforehand, then the podcast to tell you what the report was all about in a sort of quick snippet, which I think is great, a better way, more organized than our podcast, which I'm amazed it even happened some weeks with me too technical difficulties. Let's bring our guests in. Her name is Lori Calvacina. She's the head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Laurie, welcome back to the show. Thanks so much for having me. I mean, I'll say, you know, you guys know I've been a fan of this podcast in the past, and when you guys started putting out, I think I did mind. You know, maybe like a year or so later, but you guys definitely help get my creative juice is flowing. So it's an honor to be here, you know, in many ways as a listener and um, you know, as someone who's taken some inspiration for you guys. Oh that's nice to you to say you're showing us up with the slides, though, Laurie, I want to I want to see how we can get some slides to attach it to ours. I have enough problems with the basic podcast cast technology. I'm not sure I want to add Laurie's. It's been a while since you've been on the show. I know you had a new baby. Congratulations. I'm jealous. I love babies. Thank you. He's he's not a baby anymore. My pandemic baby is thirteen months old. Now. Yeah, he's awesome. Hopefully he will you know he will. He will continue to do his cute little things for a while. But yeah, he's not a baby anymore. I had that realization that's not too fast. That's an adorable age. And enjoy them before they get old enough where they're roasting you on TikTok, like my kids are very, very unfortunate. But lord, let's get into this whole idea. I know you spent a lot of time looking at and measuring investors sentiment and it had really, you know, turned south there in September. It it really gotten pretty poor, um, you know, and it's always hard to tell exactly to sort of quantify and dissect what's causing it. But we have seen this, you know, strong reaction to the market by the fact that Congress was able to at least postpone the day of reckoning for the debt ceiling issue. Um, did that surprise you that that was that much of sort of a weight around the market's neck? I mean, is this clearing this out of the way, Is that enough to sort of say, blue guys ahead or what? Well, Mike, I think you know, you you've kind of stolen my craziest thing, which was you know, the reaction to the de ceiling deal was you know, sort of the crazy thing to me because I had the same thought you did. That we knew that this was something that was weighing on investor sentiment one of many things, right, but you know, there's a pretty long list right now. But you know, I think that the conventional wisdom, right is they always, you know, this this issue comes up every few years. They always figure out way to avoid financial arm again and get it done. And a lot of people I was even out talking to clients this week about this issue, UM in person actually, and you know, the responses while they always get it done. You know, I've learned to sort of ignore this issue. There's a lot of noise and then lo and behold. You know, we see this enormous reaction in markets today. So look, I think it probably was a little bit different this time just because it did seem it just wasn't clear how they were going to get to resolution. It did seem like, um, there was a little bit more than theater this time around, So maybe that worry was a little bit deeper than a lot of us were letting on and lur the dead ceiling was one of the things that was sort of weighing on markets up until now. And I'm hoping you can sort of talk about what else is behind the two way volatility that we've seen from markets where we're seeing these you know, one percent updates followed by one percent down days followed by one percent updates, and what does it all mean for investors? So look, you know, I think if we're just thinking about the past, maybe like two weeks, because I think that question might have a different answer if we went back to you know, to kind of a month ago. But I think over the past couple of weeks. I think the sort of jarring move that we had in the treasury yield, the tenure yield, was something we certainly heard about from a lot of investors. UM. And you know, when it's always, you know, when you kind of get into these discussions with people, it's never the direction or the magnitude of the move, it's the speed of the move that tends to to sort of freak people out. I think we did have a very quick move here, UM. And you know, we we did an investor survey at the end of September and we actually give people a write in question and we say, you know, what keeps you up at night, what's on your mind? And we had one person right into that survey as their free response, UM, sort of the rapid rotation from growth back to value, which we're not positioned for. And so I think it's also it's not just what's happening on the macro variable. It's the fact that it happened quickly and people weren't set up for it. And you saw a fierce rotation out of technology stocks, which have been the you know, the long term favorites of a lot of investors. And I think people sort of new in the back of their heads. You know, we think rates might go up, We think financials are going to catch a bit. But the fact that it happens so quickly that everybody's favorites talks in the stocks in the tech sector flips so quickly, I think it was just a combination of all of that on that really jarred markets over the last week or so. We'll talk to us about that notion of growth and value. I mean, it's it's obviously been the lemma all year. You know, how long we'll we'll value out perform, and then it stopped out performing. And now you know, it looks like the conditions are in place for for that, you know, to that trade to come back. I mean, are we poised for some more value out performance going forward? Do you think? I think so? And we've we've tried to not be too cute in our recommendations, you know, we're sort of stopping the conversation in terms of you know, we like value, we like growth. We're trying to say, just have exposure to both. We think it's going to be a very choppery leadership environment oversay the next year year and a half. So that's how we've positioned everything. But I think the really interesting conversation is, you know, sort of why and different time frames we see. So really since I think kind of early August, we changed all those positioning calls, and the framework we tried to lay out was at the time at least we said, look, there have been some very clear pressures on the value trade that have caused people to shift back into growth. And at the time it was the delta variant UM, it was some of the supply chain pressures which we're having an impact on value earnings revisions UM, and a lot of it was COVID to be honest, UM, that was there was still a lot of uncertainty there and no influencing things like the Michigan sentiment data UM. But we said, look, you know, we're going to come out of this. We think Wall Street has not really you know, sort of properly baked in a lot of the things we went through at the end of the summer, but we're going to come out of that. And when we come out of that, we think you'll see another big kind of intermediate term pop in the value trade UM. And we said, you know, it's we think it in some time in a sort of mid till late next year, so there's an expiration date on that trade um and we think growth leadership will eventually take over again late next year. But that was really the framework we tried to put out there was, Yes, we're gonna get another big move in the value you trade, don't get too comfortable, and it don't expect it's going to be the beginning of kind of a five year type cycle because growth is going to take back over, but we're going to have this sort of nice, you know, kind of move in financials and energy and things like that for a while. The interesting, you know, sort of set up for me was if you if you kind of look at the valuation data, there's a lot of room for value to beat growth. There's a lot of room for cyclicals to do well versus secular growth. I look at small cash right, small cats are still very cheap versus large caps. So we said, you know, the room is there from the valuation perspective. We knew that COVID trends had been driving a lot of those trades, and our biotech analysts was making a call that COVID cases would peak shortly after labor after Labor Day, so we said that would give you a catalyst to let that value trade move higher UM. And then the last thing we really talked about was just what do you expect from the economy next year. And when you're in a hot economy, which is one that tends to run above average the average is about two and a half percent UM, you tend to see value outperform, small cap outperform, cyclicals outperform. And and even though some of the economic numbers have been knocked down, consensus for next year still sitting comfortably above four percent, so you know, kind of a valuation room, a catalyst from COVID trends improving, and hot economy that will allow those ciglical you know, parts of the market to to really have some good fundamental support for next year. That was really kind of three ingredients we saw for that intermediate term value. Pope. Let's let's unpack that a little bit on small caps. I know you you started out as a small cap analysts in a previous life, right, so I know it's probably dear to your heart, uh, the smaller companies you know. To me, I don't always think of small caps in the same breath as as value stocks. But I guess you know, if you look at the waiting of the Russell two thousand, I mean, have you on on financials, have you on energy? So from a sector's perspective, you know, they certainly seemed to potentially benefit from the same type of tell wines that that would boost the value stocks in the large cap induexes. How are you thinking about small caps going forward? I mean it also feels like, um, the revitalization, the rebound and earnings for small caps has been sort of deferred a little bit into the future compared to large caps. I mean, is it kind of, uh the time for the for small caps to shine? But given all these factors, and to make a twelve part question, I know, the you know, earning earnings estimates for small caps can be a little bit more violatile than, uh than large caps, and so I don't know if that plays into your thinking at all. But you know, how are you sort of thinking about small caps going forward, given given all these sort of catalysts that potentially could help them out. Yeah, it's it's a great question. And you know, I sort of described small cap as my first professional child. Um, you know, I spent seven years as a small cap strategist at a couple of different shops. I mean, now I kind of do I do everything the broad market, and I still do small caps, but there's a certain fondness for me there, and I often feel like it's the lens through which I can really understand what's going on the market. I do think that a lot of things are clearer there than they are an SMPD. UM. And look, I think with small cap and people hate it when I say this, UM, but I really don't think earnings matter that much. Um. You know. I think the reality is that small caps have so many companies with losses and now it's obviously more now than in the past. UM. But the reality is there's really no good way to calculate the EPs growth of the Russell two thousand. I come up with ways to do it to satisfy client requests. Frankly, UM, and to try to help my clients, you know, put some numbers around something that's very difficult to put numbers around. But I've just realized over time that's just not what the stocks trade on. The stocks tend to trade on higher level macro variables, and the only way the earnings I feel like really sort of seeps in is when you sort of look at it from a quality perspective, and people want higher quality so than the sheer number of companies with losses will push people out of that space into bigger caps um. But and I think that's certainly something that hurts small cap over the summer. The nervousness around the COVID outlook, the FED a lot of other things pushed investors back towards higher quality stories, and that pulled some of the multi asset investors out of small cap. But that's really the only time I think you really want to pay too much attentions to earnings. I think earnings is more of a stock selection issue within small cap for active managers as opposed to a reason to get in or out of the asset class um. But you know, to kind of go back to your original question, I think small caps and value are not always the same trade. I think they are the trade the same trade right now. If you look at how large has performed versus small, and growth has performed versus large within the Russell one thousand, so the large cap lands both of those trades have been moving in tandem with the rate of change in COVID cases in the US. That's been true for small cap since last November. It's been true for value growth since March UM but the last like six nine months or so. They are both trading on one of the same economic variables. They are also both very sensitive to interest rate direct ship. And this is something we've seen over time that when the tenure yield is going up, it doesn't really matter why it's going up. Small caps tend to outperform and value tends to outperform. And if you sort of think about why those relationships are there, UM, I think right now, financials is a huge influence on both the small cap space as an asset class and the value trade. And so interest rates go up, financials tend out perform. It's pulling both of those parts of the market up right now. UM. And I just sort of, you know, put in a slightly different way when we talk about small cap looking cheap versus large cap UM. It's a really really compelling chart that we put together on that you're really at historic valuation opportunities and small versus large when you go and look at it sector by sector to figure out what's driving that valuation differential. It's not things like healthcare, UM. It's it's the financial sector, it's the energy sector. UM. It's these kind of you know, value oriented parts of the market that are have a very heavy presence in small cap now that are really driving that valuation differential. So there's a lot of overlap in those trade right now that we might not no, not not ordinarily. See. I'm glad you brought up financials because I had noticed in one of your notes recently where you said ahead of FED hikes, you tend to see some value in some small caps out performing. So I'm hoping you can walk us through what can work well in in the environment now where people are anticipating a FED taper and then eventually FED hikes. So I do think the taper was largely priced in in the second quarter of the year. UM. And if you kind of go back and you think about the sort of conversation that was happening among economic economists and rage strategists, and there was you know, sort of this this kind of pounding the table up. The FED is behind the curve and they need to taper because inflation is getting out of control and they're going to eventually wake up to this risk and pull their time table forward. But that was a big conversation happening in kind of March and April, and that's actually when we saw the value trade, you know, kind of start to underperform. And we after having had a big run and also small caps mysteriously at the time, seemingly peaked versus large cap and we sort of put some of those trades that had been doing very well and that normally do well going into a hiking environment, they suddenly, you know, just stopped working um. And I think as we go back and look at the data, we think sort of the deterioration you were starting to seeing some of the COVID stats contributed to that. But I also think it was just Wall Street figuring out that the taper was coming sooner rather than later, despite what the Fed was saying. And you know, if you go do back and look at the taper, we had you know, time frame and that announcement, and then when we actually did the taper, um we saw those traditional you know, kind of rate hike trades flip um. So normally you get into a rate hiking cycle, small peaks versus large value does very well going into the hiking cycle and then growth leadership takes over once hikes begin. And that's exactly what happened back in the taper during and we really essentially saw those trades take root again in second quarter of this year. UM. But you know what we had before, right, was the sort of interesting intervening period between the AP and the hikes, um, where a lot of these risk trades started to work again. UM. And now you know, essentially I think we're sort of in this holding period, right. I think the market is going to enjoy the cyclical spirits that make the FED confident enough to hike rates. UM. So we've got above average GDP in place. That's something you normally see before and early on in a FED hiking cycle. Um, we've got very lofty levels of I s M. That's something you also tend to see before the hikes actually, you know, start to happen. Um. And you know what, unfortunately, we tend to see is when the hikes themselves start. I s M usually ends up peaking during the hikes are shortly thereafter in GDP grows from being above average to below average shortly after the hiking cycle. So the markets start to say, you know, the FED always cools off the economy and pull some of that that froth out, and markets start to anticipate it, and so these parts of the market that benefit from that really hot economy, they start to discount in advance even though it's happening. So, you know, I think that the Fed, unfortunately, I think is what puts the expiration daid on the siblical tradits, you know, Laurie, I, I think the one interesting sort of difference in this latest episode over the last year two has been the the enormous fiscal response. Uh. You know, in addition to such a huge uh monetary response from the Fed, we for once we saw a really huge fiscal response from from the Congress and the President's UM. That's how one's obviously wearing off. UM. I wonder how much optimism was priced into the market about whether it be an infrastructure deal the Biden three and a half trillion spending package. You know, at this point, it doesn't look like we will necessarily get either one. I mean, at least I wouldn't bet on it. Possibly will get some kind of of narrowed down UH package that would be sort of above trend government spending. But you know what's priced into the market as the market, in your opinion, just written off the sort of an above average fiscal spend going forward at this point, I think it's such a great question, Mike. And when we sort of think about the risks to our view and something that could cause the value and small cat trade to have an extended cycle. I always point people to fiscal policy, and and the reason I point people to it is just my conversations with investors this year. They're absolutely focused on tax. They don't like corporate tax hikes. A lot of the BYE side is already baking this into their numbers, not the sell side, but the BY side. But nobody on the BYE side or even the Cell side, frankly my conversations at least, wants to give the economic forecast or the fundamental forecast any kind of credit for anything coming out of Washington on the fiscal side. And you know, I the things I tend to hear are, well, it's too spread out, it's going to happen over a ten year period, so it's not going to have, you know, too much of an impact. Or while the dollar value in the context of the size of our economy just really isn't big enough to move the needle um, you know, so we'll hear that a lot um. And then you know, people will also say, well, that the negative impacts of tax hikes are going to offset anything that you would get, and I just hear that time and time again. And you know, I used to joke back in you know, sort of April and May like I I felt like I was a policy analyst because when I was discussing that your head your head outlook at an hour meeting, we'd spend forty minutes on corporate tax perform and that's not even an exaggeration. Um. But then I would try to talk to people. When Biden's Jobs Fan and Family's plan came out and he put the white papers out, we did a whole analysis and nobody wanted to talk about them. And you know, I I've told people, you know, you may be right on infrastructure, you know, with industrials and materials. People also say it crowds out private investment. Fine, you know, I get that, but I think that the sort of some of the details and the Budget Reconciliation Bill are so interesting from a consumer perspective. And you know, you mentioned I have a thirteen month OLDO. I also have a five year old UM, and so you know, I see sort of the provisions about paying for daycare or pre k um, and you know, just the sort of idea of putting some you know, money back in consumers pockets. And we just went through an episode, you know, with with a pandemic where the stimulus payments, we saw impacts on credit card spending. Um. You know, the companies were talking about discrete impacts that they've seen from stimulus. Um. You know, it just sort of is interesting to me that we just lived through that and saw you know, giving consumers some extra cash having a direct impact on their spend um. And and people are just not thinking about this at all when it comes to that budget reconciliation bill. So I've described it as a show me story. Um. You know, I'm not the one to make the economic projections, but I do think, you know, if we think about what could make my call wrong and extend that cyclical trade longer, the upside risk I do think lies in fiscal policy. If we get those bills passed, Um, could they caused some surprises to the upside on the economic side, or could from a corporate perspective. They change consumer spending patterns, give certain consumers more money to spend. That has an impact on bottom lines. Markets not prepared for that. Well, Lurie, all I have to say is a thirteen month old and a five year old is good spacing. I can tell. I can tell why you're a strategist now, because you never want to have two in diapers at one time, and I think you spaced them out appropriately. I thought I did. I made the opposite mistake. I had to too many babies and diapers at once, and it's it's gonna be overwhelming. I know you're worried about college costs. My Oh, yes, absolutely, let's try. I'll never bring it up again. I'm sorry trying to give me, trying to give you a heart at Speaking of Lorie's research, Laura, your research reports are just some of the best. I always read them all the way through. I flipped through all your slides, and I know you have a new survey out, which you do from from time to time, but the most recent one, I think it was titled the mood of the market has gotten more pessimistic, but investors are still buying value. And you had found the pessimism overall has sort of continued to rise, although it's done from past peaks. But I'm hoping you can walk us through some of the things that you found and what else has stood out to you from what you're hearing from people. Yeah, you know, I thought it was I thought it was really fascinating, UM that the the overall mood of the market was you know, just just not as not as chipper as it was, you know, sort of earlier in the year. We've sort of seen that progressing over the last couple of surveys. UM, But investors still seem to be on board with this value trade UM and specifically the financials and energy, which I think makes sense those areas are not at the epicenter of you know, sort of supply chain concerns. UM. I'll take you know, just kind of going back to the topic of taxes, because I do think you know, when you talk to people about the case for a pullback in markets late in the year, and we've been in that camp as well, but I find a lot of people are pointing to this idea of corporate taxes and that it's not been baked in and it's going to be this big, huge, you know, sort of disaster for corporate America longer term. And we just asked the investors in the survey, we said, you know, what do you think this does to earnings? What do you think this does to performance? And we always give people, we try to give people five choices on you know, sort of most of these questions, and there will be sort of an extreme bowl and an extreme bear, and the kind of a moderate bowl and a moderate bear, and then kind of a neutral. That's how we always try to lay everything out. And we found that on the question of corporate taxes, most people, um, I think it was about two thirds maybe on each of the questions we asked about earnings independent from performance, and we found that most people were in that camp saying, and it's gonna be a wonderful you know, one to five percent hit to performance. It's gonna be a one to five percent to earn hit two earnings. UM. And I thought that was so interesting because it's not sort of the disaster scenario um that a lot of people have laid it out to be market. If it happens, markets will price it in and readjust and then move on. Um. The other thing, you know, that I thought was so interesting. We asked some questions on supply chains, which of course has been the kind of big freak out point post labor date for a lot of investors, especially in the industrial and material space, and we've just been hearing a lot of negative commentary around that. But we found sort of a general vibe. You know, most people are you know, I would say, are more worried about second half numbers as opposed to two numbers. But when we ask people, you know, kind of how worried are you about this? Most people picked the you know, I'm worried, but I'm not panicked. Um, I think we'll get some some downward revisions and mrs. But it's not the end of the world. And you know, it just goes to show me that people are taking some of these concerns and stride. Yeah, I'm I'm not sure how everyone's too worried about Biden being able to get a tax hike through Congress. I don't see him him getting that through Congress. But maybe I'm just being too cynical with all the moderates and Congress. If they're if they're stopping everything else, I don't see how that gets through but I mean it's certainly they're a risky you have to to think about. Um. Well, Laurie before we get to the crazy things. They passed the law where all financial podcasts have to get the guests take on inflation this year, um quickly in just a few seconds. I mean, you know, we saw the natural gas prices in Europe. Just go through the roof. We're you know, commodity indexes are high. Transitory is looking a little less transitory than than maybe everyone thought. How big of a race of a risk is inflation or stiflation really in your mind? Um? Or is it just a matter of picking the beneficiaries of of a rising price environment? Yeah, I'll say, you know, maybe I'll put my small cap hat back on again. Um. You know, I sort of, you know, took took one very important lesson when I first launched as a small cap strategist. Remember one long time investor told me, Um, portfolio manager in the space have been around for years, Um said, small caps are inflationary, and small caps do well at inflationary environments. And you know, if you sort of think about the birth of Russell right and then the Russell indexes, it came at the those indexes start at the end of the seventies, right, so they were they were created for a reason. And if you go and you look at the data, small caps tend to outperform when inflation expectations are high and rising, or if you look at the CPI data and it is it is a testament to the fact that they are more responsive to the underlined cycle and health of the economy that's enabling that strong inflation than they are to the pricing pressures and the mark in the margin pressures and small caps do I think have more pricing pressures, are pricing power rather than people give them credit for. But to me, I feel like I know what to do in that environment, and it's it's by the small caps, it's by the financials, it's by the energy stocks, and they deserve to be bought based on where the valuations are. So I'm not overly worried right now. My my, Again, I'm not the economist, so we don't do a forecast on inflation, but my hunch is that it will be, you know, sort of more elevated than it was previous to the pandemic, not as bad as it is now. And you'll see you'll see things come down as as demand starts to normalize. And I also, you know, I read a lot of earnings called transcripts. I know we've talked about on this that on this podcast before. We're still reading those transcrip its. And you know, if you think about it from a margin perspective and the corporate profitability perspective, the company since have just been hemming and high about all the margin pressures and inflationary pressures and supply chain pressures and tariffs, and they do a marvelous job of managing through UM given hedging the tools at their disposal, they are constantly sucking costs out of the system and the margins have been fantastic. So I I try not to overly react. I feel like I just want to focus on I know what to do, and then you know, I kind of I don't love the term stackfulation, but you know, when I sort of look at the growth backdrop separately from the inflation question, the high frequency indicators that sort of softened at the end of the summer are stabilizing, and even back to work is starting to poke up. UM. We've got kid vaccines coming UM soon hopefully. UM We've got some good news on that this week. UM. I think that will help restore some of the confidence that's taken a hidden markets late over the summer. UM And so I think that we are really not at risk of a recession. UM. I think that we are just working through some challenges from a supply chain perspective. UM. But I do think companies tend to get through these. So I I try not to worry about all this too much. Stand clear of the craziest things we saw in markets this week, well, l Donna, one supply chain that has continued to be very robust is the supply of crazy things in markets. How about that? How about that segue that that was That was really good. I'll give you that. And this week in particular had so many crazy stories it was really hard to pick. All right, Well did you start then? Oh? Sure, Well I saw that Burger King has chicken less chicken wings or chicken nuggets coming. I saw that Best Buy has some sort of uh program you can pay for that sort of helps you get around supply chain issues. I don't know if you saw any of those stories. I have not. Oh my gosh, there was just so many really interesting things happening. So with best Buy, you can buy like you pay a hundred dollars a year, and you can jump the line to to get certain products, but they don't exactly tell you which products. But anyway, the craziest thing that I chose was actually from a Matt Levine column and the title of the article was is the stock market open at three am? This startup says it should be. So there's a company called twenty four Exchange, and it's looking for SEC approval to offer ron the clock stock trading sixty five days a year, on all the holidays, overnight, all the time, just like the krypto markets. And to me, that was one of the most interesting things I've seen in a really long time. Because I know we've talked about it on the podcast before. That means you'll have to cover the stock market twenty four hours, right, So I'm not this I'm having anxiety just thinking about it. Yeah, it was. It was really interesting. Yeah, let's all right to our congressman or something to make sure make sure that doesn't happen. How about you, Laurie, what's the craziest thing you've seen? Oh? Gosh, I mean to be honest, but I haven't sort of noticed, frankly, any sort of like weird quirky thing this week in terms of like trading or story. UM, and we already talked about you know what I was. Yeah, but the market reaction just like, yeah, maybe this was all about the debt ceiling. Um. But look, I'll tell you sort of the sort of most unusual, sad and heartwarming thing all in one UM that I saw earlier this week, my former boss, Tobias Love Combitu, I guess has technically been a competitor in the past few years for me. UM passed away on Friday after you know, a car accident about a month ago or so, and UM, for those of you who know him, UM, it was just an incredibly emotional time. This man touched so many people in so many different ways and was so beloved. And you know, I'm not the biggest fan of social media. UM, I deleted some of my accounts a few years ago. UM, I've spend a lot of time there. But the outpouring that I've seen on Twitter and LinkedIn, UM, you know there if you just go in and search for Tobias Love commnch on there, especially on LinkedIn, there are some amazing tributes that have been posted and comments, and the reach that this man had and how beloved he was by so many different people in different corners of the investment community. I mean, it just does go to remind you this is truly a community and is truly a small world. Um And I thought it was, you know, an unbelievably heartbreaking thing that happened, but just the outpouring and how he impacted so many people was just so touching. Absolutely a man whose reputation really uh is triple A rated uh as far as I can sell, and not only had Laurie, but it's not easy to keep a job as a strategist for twenty two years or however money, you know, so you know, you know he's doing something right to keep a job that long. So we'll certainly miss him in the well. The panic euphoria model at at City that he he was sort of in charge of has been renamed the Levkovich model. I think I saw a note this week saying that that's that's good. That's amazing. You know, if there's one thing about him, he was always willing to take on a consensus argument and challenge the consensus and say what he believed. He used to says, my job to tell people what they need to know, not what they want to hear, And that model absolutely embodied his spirit. That's that's incredibly fitting. Certainly an influencer since long before that became a term. I think, so, Uh, our condolences to his loved ones. Um, and I'll try to cheer us up a little bit here with my crazy thing. Uh, I thought, I know you're a Jersey native, so surely you you must have some familiarity with one Mr Bruce Springsteen. So my my crazy things. Via my friend John Miller pointed out a story in Rolling Stone. There's a bunch of Springsteen memorabilia going up for sale at one of the auction houses. I forgot to write down which one, So it's time to play prices, right, Fildonna and Lorie. The handwritten manuscript for the song The thunder Road, one of the bosses most classic songs. Ever, it was written in pen across four notebook pages. Uh. The final page actually has two different versions of the opening verse, which is kind of interesting. It's going up for sale. Uh. We don't know what it will solve for, but they've given us an estimated range. So lord, you go first, what's your bid for the handwritten manuscript of thunder Road Lyrics? Oh? I have no idea. I mean like pre pandemic inflation or post pandemic inflation. I don't know. I don't know. Fifty dollars. Was it for a charity? I don't know. But that's a good question. I don't know. I'm gonna keep a poker face, fildonna. What what's your bid for the thunder Road manuscript? So you get the whole notebook or you just go you get four pages, You're like, I want, I want the whole notebook. You would, right, because you never know what else is in the notebook. It would be like taking interview notes in the empty pages of it. Probably, yeah, for sure. Yeah, from the podcast. I always take notes from the podcast. Um. I was going to say twenty Yeah, you're frugal when it comes to stuff like this. All right, Well, Laurie, um no, Well it's the it's the handwritten lyrics the thunder Road. Come on, Laurie, I gotta set my cap to you. They're estimating between fifty thousand and seventy thousand. I personally think it's going to go for a lot more, but we'll have to check back on that the auctions at the end of October. So I don't know a lot of Boss fans out there, uh a lot. I know a lot of Wall Streeters who are big Bruce fans. I could see it going for more than that book, but as far as the estimated price, Laurie, you'll be pretty much doubted on the head there. That's impressive, excellent. Hopefully my SMP target will be on with that. I think that is all the time we have, uh, Laurie, so great to catch up with the Uh. Always been a good such an interesting guest on the show and I can't wait to have you back someday. Well, thanks for having me on which lard to it? Thank you, LOI what goes up? We'll be back next week and so then you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took the time to rate and review the show on Apple podcast so more listeners can find us. And you can find us on Twitter. Follow me at Rea Anonymous. Bildada hi Rich is at Bildonta Hirich. You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at podcasts I thank you to Charlie Pell to Bloomberg Radio. What Goes Up is produced by topur Foreheads. The head of Bloomberg podcast is Francesco Levie. Thanks for listening, See you next time.