Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index in London, joined this week’s “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what she expects in markets, especially as US investors brace for what some say is the increasing potential for recession.

“I think a ‘soft landing’ is optimistic—we’ll put it that way,” Cincotta says, adding that she puts the probability of a downturn in the near future at more than 50%. However, the still-hot American jobs market could ease the sting of any economic contraction. “It could be that the jobs market is actually the saving grace for the US economy,” she says.