Stocks tied to the economic reopening had a banner 2020 before their performance petered out a few months ago. But Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management who oversees around $7.5 billion, is making big bets on reopening plays, banks and other value stocks. He talks about his strategy and goes into why the market's not had a significant pullback this year. Plus, he discusses the one catalyst he thinks could throw the rally off course.
Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up a weekly markets podcast. My name is Mike Reagan, and I'm a senior editor at Bloomberg and I'm Donna hick Across asid report at Bloomberg. This week on the show, well, whatever happened to that reopening trade that was supposed to lift all the stocks of the companies that would benefit when we all finally changed out of our sweatpants and got out of the house. Well, as the delta variant of the virus rages, many of us are back to wearing sweatpants, and many of those stocks have been going sideways at best for more than three months. Now. We're gonna talk to a fund manager who will explain why he's still sort of bullish on many of these type of companies and we should listen to him. He's got a very strongly performing fund. And by the way, stick around till the end, because for some reason, Vill Donna is very excited to reveal the question that Jeffrey Gundlock is asked the most. I don't know why that is, Vill Donna, but you are very excited to reveal that. Well, you'll you'll hear it when when you hear it. It's very it's very fun. It's very fun. Okay, we liked we like fun stuff. Yeah, it's very fun. All right. Well, well, Donna, before you bring the guests, and I've got a brief. I know you like stories about when I was a young young boy back in the eighteen hundreds, so I've got one free about my dad, Pops Reagan, who he had a famous catchphrase which was the black and whites never lie. And what he meant by the black and whites was the report cards we'd bring home. You know, my dad had six kids, all boys but one girl, and the black and whites were our report card. So if he was saw usloafing around the house or or goofing around and not studying, he'd be like, how school going, And we'd be like, Pops, it's going great. What are you worried about? And he'd say, well, the black and whites don't lie because obviously back then we only had black and white. They had invented color. Yet. Yeah I got that, Yeah, you got that. So I think of this every time we have a fund manager on because I love to look at their performance and I say, you know, the black and whites don't lie there either. So this week's guests, I think Pops Reagan would be proud of uh queer portfolio fund uh really killing the SMP five up almost for the year in the ninety four percentile of pure funds year to date, ninety one percentile over three years. So, uh, you know Pops would be proud, Bill Donna, And I'm also excited because I know he went to the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, which means not only will he reveal his stock picks, but hopefully he'll reveal his cheesesteak picks as well. Yeah, so I do want to bring the guests in. It's Andrew Slimmon. He's the managing director and he's a senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and I'm thrilled to have him on the show this week. And I know, Andrew, you've written quite a bit recently, and you and I have chatted in the past before, but I do want to start out asking you about some of your your strategies and the way you're thinking about the market. I know in a recent note you had said that bond yields traditionally bottom in August and then they rise in the fourth quarter, and that the markets tend to get some sort of unfounded growth scare in the summer months, then we'll see the economy re accelerating in the fourth quarter. So can you maybe walk us through your thinking and through your strategy. Sure, happy, thank you, happy to happy to do it. Thanks for having me on. But before I start, we just have to get one thing straight. It's Adners. It's definitely as was my favorite chees Takes. In fact, I brought my kids to see the school I've got a couple of years ago, and I think we spent more time at Adners than we did walk. I spent a lot of time at that place. Kavanaughs. I don't know if that was there's uh that was famous. Phil Dona had had a mug night where you could bring in any mug that you want, So there's a competition to see you could bring in the biggest mug and they would fill it up. Guys are bringing like Stanley cup sized size mugs to with with your beverage of choice. Our just would be called cheap draft beer. But you know you could fill it up with frutuice. I guess if you want so, let me just jump to interest rates. UM, I'm amazed at how markets there's a consistency to markets. We get a growth scare usually in the summer, that happens over and over. Rates come down in the middle of the summer, and then they start to lift going into the fourth quarter. And this is this is exactly what's happened this time. Rates bottomed on August third, the ten year bottom one August there and the ten years back up to one thirty three today, the yield curve at and all through the spring and now starting to re steep. And so I think what's interesting fast, what fascinates me is that, um, the financial markets predicted a slowdown starting in the spring, and then we got the economic data that validated it this summer, and now the financial markets are starting to predict an improvement in the fourth quarter, but we haven't had the economic data to validate it yet. I'm fascinated by that type of seasonality thing that you see every down that I've noticed it what the economic surprise indexes to. They always tend to bottom out in the in the summer meeting. You know, the the data is missing estimates by the most of the year. In the summer. What if there's some human nature thing that you know, causes economists to be very optimistic at the beginning of the year and then you know, come come to their senses. But you know, answer to to bring it back to the fund um. You know that notion about rates creeping up. I wonder is is that sort of uh playing a large role into the picks and the fund I noticed a pretty decent heavyweight to banks and diversified financials. Um. Is it that simple that that macro input or or these sort of idiosyncratic reasons why you're here in each of these you know, a couple of regional banks. I noticed first Republic uh SVB a very prize. Is that part of it? Or is there other stories as well? Yeah, well, well look I'm up. So I went to pen but i also went to the Universe Chicago, So I've got a little bit of a quant bend as well. And I know that what defines a stocks performance is not only their fundamental what's going on at the company level, but also their quantitative factor exposure and those stocks that you all listed our value stocks, and they benefit from rising rates. And one of the reasons why we're having a very good year in our fund. Is simply that going into the spring, we were concerned about a seasonal slowdown in the economy, and so we downshifted some of those value names a little bit and we increased our exposure to a little bit more of the risk off the the defensive type names, and that worked very well. But at at now at we're at a juncture where you were going the other way. So we've increased those positions a little bit because we're anticipating that we get to the fourth quarter and then the economic data will say, oh, it's not so bad. You know what, the economy is picking up and it's no different. You mentioned Michael early on the reopening stuff. They did great last year into the spring, and then we also reduced those in anticipation that maybe in the summer we could have a little bit more of a risk off son, So I would not be selling those stocks right now. But having said that, we've actually been more competent in the rising rate environment than the reopening trade. So I think financials and then second energy will be the two best performing in the fourth quarter. That would be my area. So then can I ask actually ask you to to expand a bit on what you're thinking is around value stocks, because I know in one of your recent reports you had written that when value outperforms growth, overall growth does tend to outperform for a little bit of that cycle, for just enough to sort of shake out the nonbelievers. I believe you said, so can you walk us through that? Sure? Yeah. So look, coming out of a recession, right, value stocks are cyclical, so they all get beaten down in recessions, worse than gross socks and defensive stocks. And then you get to a juncture somewhere in the middle of recessions where people say, oh wait and not every cyclical stock is going to fail, and they have a significant bounce back rally back because they're so cheap. And we saw it in the recession ninety, we saw it in two thousands, we saw it in two thousand nine. These stocks came back strong, and um, the average value cycle lasts about thirty three months. We're you know, twelve months in However, of those thirty three months, about eleven of those months on average, growth actually outperforms value. So you have it's not a straight line back up. There is twists and turns, and so I think at the very least. And again, I'm a core manager. I'm not here to just sell value strategies. I'm a core manager. I'm just trying to figure out where the fat pitches. And what I see is that value has made its way back up, but it's still pretty cheap versus growth. Now, I happen to believe that not only will value read price back to where normally is, but I think that the change in the tone out of the FED could lead to a period of time or value outperforms growth fro an extended period. I'm the way it in the nineties. You know, I was gonna ask you about that because it's you know, it sounded like you were doing some some very tactical type of adjustments there in the middle of the year. Um uh you know, is is that sort of a byproduct of the boom and bust COVID air that you have to be more tactical than you than you maybe would otherwise. Or were you guys always that sort of uh, you know, a tune to trying to time out performance within within any given year. Yeah. So look, I'm a long equity manager, so I don't go to cash because what I've learned is you know, so eraised five percent cast market goes out a lot, you're gonna lose money, right, And so the way we adjust is a debate at the risk in the portfolio. And what I've learned in this business from being in a long time is you want to lower the risk in the summer. Summer just always seems we've got these grows scares week And yes, the SMP didn't really go down this summer, but a lot of stocks and the SMP went down a lot. And so I just know that to reduce the risk and the reopening trades and the value trades they tend to have more risk than the defenses and some of the very MEGACP tech stocks. So that's just a seasonal bet that this time was not different and turned out to be, you know, the right call. And I also know that the fourth quarter once you know, it's still mid September, once we get through this period, um, you know, the market tends to do well kind of you know, mid October until mid December, and I think earnings are going to be strong. So the setup is there once again. Um, that seasonality I think is gonna work this year like it has so far. Can I ask you to expand on that as well, because one of the things I wanted to get your thoughts on is what's actually keeping dip buyers alive. So a lot of people had predicted that the summer would be choppy August it wasn't as terrible as many had projected. But it's a purely technical that we haven't really had a five percent pullback in so long I think it's been more than two hundred days. Or are there actually some real fundamental underpinnings for that. Yeah, great questions. So first of all, again, the cap weighted SMP is at a high because uh, those big, very big stocks are a little bit lower beited the lower risk they can survive a low growth environment. So I think that really held up SMP. One hundred outperformed the rest of the four hundred this summer, so that's held up the the SMP. But I think there's two key reasons why we haven't had a pull back. Number one is is that we're all talking about how strong the market is price wise this year. But I think what we spent less time discuss see is that actually the fundamentals are is have changed as good as the market has gone up. In other words, if I dialed the clock back to the beginning of this year and I took the Wall Street consensus, how much is the SMP going to earn this year? It was a hundred and sixty five dollars this year. That's the Wall Street consensus of all the stocks in the SP five one. That number is now a two d. So Wall Street has been too bearish by the magnitude about and loan behold the stock markets up. So I think that's good earnings reports. I've you know, I'm not you know, I've been this business long enough to know that when companies exceed estimates, stocks don't go down for long, and when companies miss estimates, stocks don't go up for long. Right, It's a very simple rule, But you know that that's the first thing. Number two is I think the other thing that's going on, and you know, again we talked to advisors, we talked to investors, is in our funds. And if I dial the clock back the last year about this time, the call that we were getting from investors and from advisors were I have clients that think they want to get out of the market, because again, again this is last year at this time because the markets had a big rally off the low. It's gonna be a covid re outbreak in the fall, and they think we're gonna have a double dip, so they want to get out, right. That was the call that we're getting over and over last year. We're not getting that call right now. The call we're getting is when is a pullback coming? I have so much cash, you know, and on my books, and so what I see happening is that when the market pulls back, we're getting money into our funds. Right, We're getting money that's coming in because people are trying to buy the debts. So um that I think is another thing that's supporting the market. And I guess if I had to so a third is, you know, the FED hasn't changed policy. Don't fight the Fed. Boy, oh boy, has that worked? So I think those are the the key fundamentals are better, there's a lot of liquidity, and the FED still your friend. You know, I wanted to ask you about that. It's it's a great point you make, because you know, we can all analyze to death the fundamentals of the economy and all the companies, but there is that other side of the equation. And that's the fundamentals of the investing class, you know, whether whether it be individual investors or you know, institutional money or even companies themselves that have sort of beefed up their balance sheets, uh, you know, sort of preparing for anything, uh last year and now maybe have some more cash two buy back shares. Does that go into your thinking much? You know, as far as you know, look at the personal savings rate in the US last year just went absolutely through the roof. So you know when you look at you know, the deposits at commercial banks or the money is sitting in in uh money market funds that's just doing nothing. And you know, does that influence sort of your your opinion on where the market's going? Is the fundamentals of the investor class and perhaps explain why maybe when you reflect back that on the fundamentals of the market itself, that they could you know, those ratios that we all sort of have our eyes glued on could get stretched beyond what might otherwise be considered reasonable because there is all this cash sitting around. Well, yeah, there's a lot of question. That's my specialty. Andre I. I I pack it in there. Yeah, you say, you pack it. You start with corporate and I want to just touch that. I do think that if if fundamounts of corporations at the earnings levels, great, because they're just buying back a lot of stock. I don't think that the market will reward that as much as revenue growth. So, first of all, when I see a strong revenuance, but as it pertains to the individual, I wouldn't necessarily bank on just because there's a lot of cal ash. It means you can't have a market go down. But I think that that plays into why we're not getting this you know, ten percent plus correction because there's too much cash out there. So I think, you know, to me, the most important thing is really followed fundamentals of companies, and I just think that we're gonna have. You know, we've had a great second quarter and I've learned. I look at that there there's no question costs of going up. But what I hear when we talk to companies and we listen to companies, I'm almost shocked at how cavalier they are. We're going to pass on those costs increases. So there's this this very high level confidence that as consumers, we're all gonna pay higher prices um and so I don't think that third quarter is going to be disappointing because I think companies will pass on the cost. And secondly, maybe this is just a little bit cynical. I've learned in this business. If a company blows out a quarter, they obviously something in the tank. They all have got, you know, they've got a little extra. So they're not going to go from great earnings in the second quarter to completely missed the course. So I think the revisions are going up. And to the extent that your question is, you have consumer buying power that kind of supports a market price. Now, let's face it, with a tenure at one three, the multiple in the market could be much higher than it is. But I think what the market is saying is, well, we know that's a little bit artificial. We know that the FED has been buying. Rates are probably should be high if it wasn't for the FED. So I think that you know that that that's that's you know that that certainly supports the market where it is. But i'm i'm i'm. I think people focus a lot on stock prices, right because you know, look, Michael, if you go you know you go to that, you go to an auto dealership, you get in the car, you can try the car out. If you go to the super arc, you can smell the food and look at it. But we you know, stock prices are aligned on them in a statement, so we spend a lot more time on price discovery and less on fundamental discovery. And that's the point, is that coming out of recessions, companies tend to do better than what Wall Street happen thanks and if stock prices the present vout future expectations, I just think stock companies are doing better than what's expected until proven otherwise. That's going to drive the market higher. And if you've got this liquidity behind it, that's going to push continue push stocks higher. I know you mentioned earnings revisions have been trending higher. There's a couple of examples of companies that have revised guidance lower. And then at the same time, I keep seeing all of these surveys from portfolio managers who are downgrading their views on growth. So I'm wondering what you might say to somebody who is looking through the rest of the year and is thinking that growth could be slowing or be as robust is maybe they had thought earlier this year my responses they might be right, but they have been right so far. I mean, you know, like I'm not. You know, it's like the report card, the black and white report card, you know, like this is. You know, all I'm doing is looking at the revisions that come out every week, and the revisions keep bubbling up. So people that have predicted that revisions are going are peaking and they're gonna head down. They have been right so far. They haven't been right, and so you know, am I smart enough to know what when that will happen? I don't think so. But I also know that they have been very smart and predicting that so until proven otherwise, and listening to companies and what the confidence that they are exuding. I'm I'm going to bet that we're not done with this, and don't forget. When you get to the end of this year, the market won't worry about two one estimate. They will speak in the price off two thousand twenty two, and I think that will further justify It doesn't mean you can't have corrections. I mean, we could have a correction here, but I think with positive revisions and strong fundamentals and liquidity behind it. It sets up for a very good fourth quarter. All right, Andrew, Uh, you know in the press, we we I think we're the biggest culprit of of building the wall of wherey in the market, so to speak. So uh, let me lay out every brick or some of the main bricks of the wall of where he let me know if if any of them are spoken to you or sort of how you would uh think about what the main risks are. Obviously you mentioned tapering and the FED that's coming. That's that's one of them. Um. The tell went from fiscal policy is also sort of wearing off. You know, the enhanced unemployment benefits are are going away, the foreclosure moratorium is all that type of thing. Um. Obviously we got the debt ceiling issue coming again. Uh, we've got COVID flaring up again. Um. Any of these keeping you you awaken night or even ones I didn't mention I always First of all, kind of geopolitics are really hard to predict. And could that come out of you know, the blue and that that could be an issue? Yes, Um, I think oil actually at seventy two seventy two is no big deal. But you start to get another ten bucks higher, and you know, higher OREL prices can slow economy very quickly, so that that to me would be um a bigger risk. I happen to think that tapering is going to be so slow and oh minding, so they're gonna buy a little less bonds than they were before that this is this is we're gonna have by the time it actually happens, we're gonna have tapering exhaustion. Um. And so I don't I don't think that would be an issue. If the economy came on too strong and rates went up too quickly, that could cause a jolt. So I think there are worries. I've learned that kind of political issues that come out of blue they tend to happen in the summer. Another reason why it's risked off. UM. So you know again, i'm i'm I think we're not through this period of that's typically not a great seasonality for the market, so we could have a pullback. I just I struggled to see a reason for it. But then you know, that's what happens. It's the unknown, and that's but I don't know fiscal policy, look, corporate taxes are you know, could be going up next year, but then I look at the rate of increase for next year, it hasn't as stronger this year, So is that embedded? And you know, as I said before, UM, a lot of the infraest industrials, they haven't seen an increase from potentially in infrastructure bill, so that that could help. So there are all sets there too, you know, hire corporate text. Let me in one pack. One thing you mentioned there, and that's that the geo politics. UM. Something that's sort of amazed me is watching what's happened in China this year. UM. And obviously their US listed equity is just getting clovered. Uh that NAZDAC Golden Dragon indecks down something like on the year, just absolutely fried. UM. And I know you in the fund, in the Queer Portfolio Fund, you've got a little bit of MGM in there. They had some news this week with the crackdown on Macau. UM. To me, so far, that seems to be the only thing that's really caught some US names up in this China drama given everything else we've talked abou and I guess that shouldn't be too surprising. But a couple years ago, if we had talked about this kind of hard landing happening in China, I think all of our our eyes would have fallen out of our heads. I mean, is is this a risk that's maybe not being appreciated with ever grand and and and and all the regulatory crackdowns going on in China. Is is that a risk to the US? And in your opinion, I think it's a risk to investors. I'm not sure it's a risk to the US. But to the extent that you have US companies or European and a lot of European luxury goods companies that have high exposure to China, uh mgm you listed is not one of them, then they are very vulnerable. If you have, you know, this rolling regulatory crackdown some you know, my first piece of advices, make sure you know what your own and make sure they don't have too much China exposure. Now having said that, um, look, this is not the first time that you've had a regulatory crackdown in China, and it happened. It happened in Maybe this is maybe this is more difficult. But I'll tell you when I hear people say China is uninvestible. It usually comes when the stocks are down, and that has created a very good opportunity invest assuming you have the right time frame, assuming you have a strong stomach and steely nerves, and you're not gonna be righting out of the headlines. But I would be very careful because you've got to make sure you don't have too many because you know, to say, put a stake in the ground, say today's bottom. I think it's tough. So we laid out all of these different worries, whether it be rising oil prices or China or whatever else. Is there one thing that can throw the rally? Of course, I think if you got rates that went up too quickly, that would be the biggest that would unnerve markets, and I think it would unnerve the heavily weighted growth. You know, the stops are growth in right, and so if you have rates to go quickly, it would unnerve the STP as it's weighted now in growth stocks. I'm not sure it would kill financials or energy materials, but I think it would hurt the STP. And to me, that is the risk is investors because of the last you know, since the Great Financial crisis, investors are way overweight and growth stocks and understandable. They've been the winners and no one wants to sell them because they've been the winners. And so the biggest risk to investors is rising rates. Rising inflation would stunt the you know, the returns in the growth areas, and that's where everyone is, you know, very very overweight. But I I just got to tell you a great story before I finished. So if you dial the clock back to about last year at this time, right, it was right about now that we the kind of the vaccine news started to come out, and that's when value stocks started out for growth stocks, and you had a big rally in those stocks until March end of March. But in the month of March more money came out of growth strategies and they went into value strategy. So just as value rolls over relative to growth, that's when the money pours into value. And now you fast forward today and I'm saying, hey, great rate to start to go up. The yelkur started seeping, but you know what, money is now poured back into growth strategy. So I think it is a great example of watch the messages of the market. They will lead the economic data, and they will lead emotional quotion of investors. It all comes back to how long is transitory? I feel like is that the question on everyone's mind. No one seems to know, but it seems it seems like maybe a little longer than we had first first thought. I guess exactly stand clear of the craziest things we saw in markets this week? All right, full data. It's the time you've been waiting for. I what is the best John question Jeff Gunlock gets all the time? I gotta know, Well, this is actually my weirdest thing. Okay, okay, so we will go right into our craziest things of the week. Then. Yeah. So I was covering the Gunlock webcast earlier this week and he went through a ton of different things related to the market, and then he said, okay, here's our last question. This is my most frequently asked question. Do you want to guess what it's about? Uh? I could guess, but I don't know. I don't want to get in trouble with Jeff Gunlock. How the Buffalo bills are going to do? That's right, Yes, How the Buffalo bills are going to do? Yes? Which I love because We're huge Buffalo Bills fans in my household, and so I got really excited about that. But then I was thinking about how many people are following WHI Chef Gunlock is saying, and how many of them are Buffalo Bills fans for that to be the most frequently asked question. He gets, that's pretty good. And did anyone ask does he dive off of the top of a mini van onto one of those tables like those guys? Oh my gosh, I always love to see those um But anyway, he said, I think he closed off the webcast saying he is bullish on the Buffalo Bills, which the will perma bill as it were. We'll have to check to see if there's a correlation between their record and his his performance. Oh that's pretty good. All right, I'll give it to you all down. That's a pretty good one. How about you, Andrew, You see anything crazy markets these days? Well, I just you know the crazy thing we've already addressed is I see sentiment is you know the bullbear sentiment is now negative. Uh. There's a lot of discussion on correction and worries about the economy. But the weirdest thing is then Why are rates going up? Why is the iel curve steepening, Why is energy prices going up? Why our materials doing well? So the weirdest thing is this just this this, you know, because this this disjointed between emotionally what people are saying and what the markets are right. Right, may man a geek and that's not weird enough, But no, no, I like it. I think it's pretty I mean I always it always comes back to that is its supply or demand issue in the oil market. You know, we are coming through this hurricane season and and and the supply was knockoff course, so it did I wonder if everyone seems to realize that. But yet is is oil is still capable of sending a false signal? U? I think it is. I think your answer is absolutely right. And and that's why I am more we have a bigger weight in financials than energy, because I've learned that the energy market can send off all signals. But when I look at that, and then I look at other things like well, you know, like the semiconductor that's a great cyclical that's hitting a new time right, So it's you know, when I line it up, it falls into place. But I wouldn't hang my hat just on that. For just the reason that you say is, you know, we can have a recovery. I can be right and the economy can be better on the fourth quarter, But if OPEC decides open the floodgates, then I'll be wrong on energy even if the economy recovers. So always be a little wary of of just looking at energy prices. Yeah, or even the U S fractors turning on the spickeotts more once you know it's uh, it seems like there's a built in uh ceiling on oil prices. That famous last words, I know, I probably shouldn't say that that's will price. Two the great saying which I love, which no one knows nothing about energy prices, which is, you know, there's nothing nothing solved high energy prices like high energy prices, you know, so they got to a certain level, they head down and then they you know, so you know, but but within a context of a group of indicators, I think it's I think it's interesting right now. Yeah, that's pretty good. All right, I'll give you my crazy thing before we get out of here. Um, this is a Bloomberg story that came out on Thursday. You know, we talked about this carnage in the China tech stocks especially, so um. You know, we on the terminal, we keep a compilation of the billionaires of the world and an estimate of what their net worth is UH for any any given year. So the billionaire who lost the most money this year uh not surprisingly in China, uh Colin Huang, founder of Pin Duo Duo uh, Chinese e commerce platform. He's down big this year. And this is where we get to play a little bit of prices, right, Phil dot At, how much do you think the biggest loss of long billionaires this guy, Colin Hwaian is is this year? How much do you think he lost? I saw you tweet about this, but I have to admit I wasn't paying close attention. That's yeah, that's kind of our relationship. Yeah, I was. I should have paid attention. UM. Okay, I'm just I'm going to throw out three billion, three billion, all right, I'm gonna keep a poker face. Andrew, what do you think uh market cap? I think that's probably close made five billion, eight billion dollars. The guy's stake in that company is huge. I think it's like or something like that. How'd you like to go home and explain your wife you lost twenty eight billion and can canceled. There's renovation plans. He's still worth a good thirty five billions, so I'm not that worried about him. But wow, and there's a bunch of others. There's ten billion plus losses all over the place there and it uh wow, what what a dramatic story that's been in China. It's really and fascinating. I will throw out one thing is, uh, some of these companies are starting to buy back their stock and if you look back to their timing was pretty good buying back the stock. And if they thought they were about to get find a big another amount, I question whether they'd be buying back their stock. So it does not necessarily mean the bombs in place be careful, but usually they do have a history of kind of starting to step in at a good time and the stocks are down a lot. That's what a great tidbit. Yeah, might be a story for you there to see you pay attention to him, but not just yeah, Andrews. So nice to have you. Hopefully we can do it again. Absolutely good, Thank you for having me. Thank you Andrew What Goes Up. We'll be back next week and soil. 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