Hi, I'MBLDNA Higher Across Acid Reporter with Bloomberg and Armed Romaine Bostic, and this week on the show, well, investors have a lot of worries to deal with inflation, COVID, the war in Ukraine, China's lockdowns, and the fresh supply chain was all of that's igniting. The list goes on. Many Monday managers have by now reduced their expectations for soccer returns this year. But what affears over recession are overblown and the second half of the year turns out better than expected. We're going to get into all of that with a well known investment advisor. But first, Romaine, welcome to the show. Thanks so much for joining us this week. You're filling in from Mike, who's galvanting in California right now. I believe California. He's on vacation. He is, he's on vacation. Hopefully he's having having a lot of fun. But I'm wondering if I tell the listeners a secret about you. Wow, Okay, you're starting off strong. Yeah, yeah, just kicking kicking, kicking things off really really strongly. You You've been a Bloomberg for something like two decades, right not to aid you. Well, you've just aged me. Yes, and I have been here one years to be exact, last January. Yeah, it's a long time, but you know, I've had a great time here, and you know, you think about all those different market cycles that you cover, the economic cycles, not only in the twenty one years i've been here, but of course, uh in my career before I haven't got here. Yeah, you're a Bloomberg TV veteran. So we're really lucky to have you this week. Um, but I do I do want to introduce our our guest. We're joined by Sylvia Jablonski this week. She's the CEO, c I O and co founder of Defiance E t F S. Welcome to the show, Sylvia, I thank you so much for having me. Happy to be here today. It's great to have you. Maybe just to start out, you can sort of give us an overview of Defiance and what you guys are forcused on. I know you're heavily focused on thematics, but just give us a little bit back on on you and the company. Yeah, sure, i'd be happy to um. So, Defiance is a company that is focused on thematic ETF investing so we'd like to think of ourselves as an E t F firm and an investment company that provides access to some of the most disruptive and and you know, futuristic themes out there. UM. We have E t F s that that cover different topics like five G quantum computing, hydrogen psychedelics, UM, the reopen trade and f t s for example. So we're really focused on that next generation trader UM. You know, the trailings involve coming down fromt the baby boomers to sort of younger people who are interested in what is technology, se semiconductors, communication and and the things things like UM that for tomorrow will look like UM. So are our main goals to come out with part of their cost efficient and giving access to these different sectors. We're also heavily invested in digital assets and and very interested in building out in that space. My role at the company is CEO and c i O, so I do a lot of work in terms of providing research, investment ideas, investment strategies just generally on you know, the market different market insight, and then also UM working on the E t F side itself, still helping with things like product development and you know, managing, uh, the overall direction of the firm. Well, Sylvia, let's start off here and really kind of talk a little bit. I think about just kind of how the investment landscape has changed. I mean down of course, starts off by aging me out real quick. So I'll just kind of pick up where she left off. You know, when I, you know, first got out of college and I started investing, I literally walked into a t row Price office of physical office, and you know, got a mutual fund and I had you know, a certain percentage of my paycheck taken out every month that then I'll go into that fund. And it was a slow slog, but that was investing for the individual investor that was investing. And what we look at today is so much different now just the options that individual investors have, both in terms of the asset classes, but also the sophistication that you get now that you have access to now that you didn't necessarily get back then, and obviously that gives you the potential for a greater return. And I guess to build a nest egg in a more layered way and into a certain extent of faster way than you could in the past when people come to you and talk to you, and not just the individual investors, but even some of the institutions here. Are they cognizant of that? Are they cognizant of just how much has changed? Yeah? And and that's a great, great thought and a great question. And you know, I can probably age myself along with you, because that's about when I started in this industry too. And you know when I started UM. I started my career Deutsche Bank, working in baqued derivatives, and and you know, we're sort of um the younger folks, and the investment banking training program revised by the older folks to take a percentage of our UM income and put it into the SMP five hundred and the bank would match, which that never I don't know if that happens at Bloomberg, but that never happens anymore anywhere else. The bank would match it, and you just kind of leave it there. And and twenty years later, lo and behold, got a lot of money in there. Right. But UM, which is great and actually historically has worked really well. Right, we know that the SMP five hundred analyzed return is UM is about you know, twelve percenter, So so that's great. But in the last couple of years there have been all these awesome themes and and different you know sorts of movements and progressions in the market, particularly around UH technology and particularly around cryptocurrency in the blockchain, and you know a lot of these investments have really been high flyers. So for for young people, young traders that you know, have risk appetite, have sort of the income to let's say, take a chance because there's a lot of risk. You know, they have these great options in terms of what they can invest in, and and that varies from you know, bitcoin to the future of the metaverse to you web three point out to some of these concepts that don't exist yet. And you know, usually what happens with with that is it's really interesting because this is actually how how it went at at Defiance, right, we came out with the first five g e t F, and and this was you know, just just gobbled up by young retail investors, so that credit crowd, that um, that Robin Hood trader. You know, we could just tell by the size of the trades that these were not institutional players. And then you know, the e t F gets past that half a billion dollar mark and now all of a sudden, if you look at you know, you look on Bloomberg and you look at the top holders, they're they're now institutions, right, So I think what you know to your point, I think, you know, retail traders, um, young investors sort of figure out the trends before, before their trends, and then you know, when some of them really snowball and become bigger and see a lot of it, you I'm going into them. I think it piques the interest of advisors. You know, they then do their due diligence and they've got that five to tem percent sleeve of you know, sort of speculative raids or um, you know, disruptive technologies that they're willing to put money into and and and they allocate and sylvy just to keep it keep. Get get some more of your your thoughts on what's been going on with markets. I was reading this note earlier this week that said the SMP five hundred has cross above it's two hundred day moving average more than five times so far this year, a cross below it's six times so far this year. So, just how are you making sense of what's been going on with the market and how does it actually feel to be a part of this or to be invested right now? Uh? You know, I think if you ask the average investor, my my guess is that they would say it doesn't feel super good to be an investment in the market this year. It's not it's not as fun as it has been for the last decade, let's say, or you know, even even sort of like those those few months post COVID where everything you started going straight up and you know, are are all of our trading accounts look great? We all look like geniuses. And you know, now, I think the market just just has a lot of headwinds. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. You have, you know, a FED that wants to raise rates for lower inflation, um and not creative recession. You know, hear about this like soft length landing. You know, inflation has been higher than ever. Um. You have issues with geopolitics. You you essentially have have all war Russia Ukraine situation. You have a strain on perhaps um you know, major commodities, oil gas, you know, and then sort of circling down depending on how how long this goes into we and different things, UM. And you know you have you have a lot of essentially fear that the combination of FED hikes and inflation will will create a situation where, um, you know, we're we're sort of in in stagculation or perhaps just don't have don't have great growth in the future. But you know, my take on this is, you know, so here we are, it makes sense. Um there there as we said, a lot of these headwinds to them market. But UM, what that means is that you're going to have this rangebound volatility. The market is going to trade, as you said, you know, in these levels, whether it's a sp other industries like NAZAC or sort of in a bear market. But what I think is that inflation, but geopolitics are likely at this point priced into the market. UM. And I think that consumer remains strong. I think that you know, historically, tightening monetary policy is followed by solid gains SMP rising at about nine percent or so. You know, companies have money, consumers are spending. Um, inflation is likely. So I actually think that we're going to have a pretty decent year. I just think that in the short term it's going to be um, not so fun. Everything you mentioned there, they seem like economic problems, and in the past, when we talk about market downturns, at least some of the bigger shocks to that market turned out to be more centered around the financial system. And I'm wondering, if you see any of the sort of economic weaknesses that everyone's pointing to today, whether that has any real material carry over into financial markets in the sense that it could cause some sort of destabilization in capital markets. You know, I think I think that if if a lot of the topics I just discussed were to go in a different place, For example, if the FED hikes you know, more aggressively, um and and sort of doesn't doesn't feel satisfied with with inflation falling, and you know, you start to see um kind of a harder landing than you know, I do think that some of that will start feeding into the market. Um. You know, banks are in good shape, so this isn't two thousand eight, right cutting some pretty good shape. The consumers in good shape. The depth servicing ratios are stronger than than they've been in decades, So you know, consumers essentially have these two shillion in savings. They have lower amounts of death than they've ever had before. Um, so I think that I think that the market can be more resilient this time. And I know famous last words, right, it's it's it's different this time. But well, it is different to a certain extent because when you look at the past cycles, say go back past a decade or two ago, you're talking about rates that were coming from a much different baseline. Here. I mean, to go from near zero to three. Let's assume that's the neutral rate here. I mean an economy or a capital market that can't withstand but three federal funds rate. Yeah, right, and then real rates are still you know, hovering, hovering, um, you know, negative levels. Right. So so that's another factor, like I just don't I think some of this is you know, some of this is an actual shaine on the market, right. But in the near term where we are today, I mean, this is very unlikely to highly impact some of the quality you know, megacap companies out there, like the Amazons, the Apples, like these companies that have pricing power, um, you know, against strong consumer, strong balance sheets, are doing buybacks and all that kind of thing. Like, I don't think it's going to impact those companies. A lot of the high growth names are you know, with high doubt levels will be impacted, but you know they're they're just always sort of in that position, right UM, where where they're volatile, and rate hikes kind of throw off the performance that But I think the broad based economy can withstand um, you know, what we're expecting anyway in terms of rate hikes. So then if if things are a little bit brighter in the second half of the year, or if we do have a sort of trade I think you call it a tradeable bottom. At this point, what are you recommending? What? What are you telling people when they ask you what they should be investing in? Yeah, so you know, it's it's important to sort of classify what type of trader you are too, right, So I think if you're looking for, you know, short term returns UM, I think that's trickier. You know, I think the machines and high frequency guys do a great job with that, but I think you know, the average investor that was doing well with UM, you know, kind of day trading over the past year, it becomes little are dangerous just because you do have so much range round volatility. You know, just look at the difference in in the NAZAC for example, UM, over the last couple of days and the performance there. But I think if you have, you know, an appetite to be a long term investor and to get really the deal of a century, I think, UM, you know, take a step back and look at names like Apple, Google, Microsoft Again, you've got negative real rates, companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power UM, consumers willing to spend money we tell, you know, we tell sales rising, and then just the theme of cyber security, cloud um, you know, metaverse, web three point oh, the future of all technology kind of hangs in the balance of these companies. So I just you know, and I think even the semi conductors like Niviti and m D they're just been absolutely crushed. UM. I just think that, you know, the longer term outlook for those names, it's going to be what buying Apple was ten years ago. You know, that's you're you're going to see those compounded returns. I also love the reopen trade. You know, we know that spending is going from goods to services UM, and it is increasing, but you know, lifting the mask mandates UM. You know this this post COVID getting out of the house. There I mean, there's just so much pent up demand to travel. You know, Delta earnings UM call was pretty awesome, Like March is the best year that they had ever in terms of like business bookings. That's a good trade. Hotels, cruises, you know, caristinos, airlines. I mean, that's a good place to look in the near term. Yeah, I think Mike Reagan would agree, considering that he just got on a flight out to California and Sylvia. I've done a lot of booking travel myself here for personal reasons over the last few months, though, But I do wonder are we in a situation, at least in the short term, where all of that pent up demand sort of overwhelmed supply. I mean, anyone who's tried to book a flight knows that prices are considerably higher than what you would have paid a couple of years ago. Even finding a ticket at all can be kind of difficult given some of the capacity constraints that some of these airlines that put themselves in. And you're seeing that with other services businesses as well, including a cruise, ships and some hotels and resorts. Yeah, and that's a great you know, that's a great point, and I think that that is actually one of the one of the major contributing factors to inflation. It's you know, sort of similar but also different to the supply chain issues with semiconductors and trying to buy a car and things like that. But you know, all of that is going to take time to to shake out, and it feels like we're in the peak of it. I mean, I agree with you. I I just booked myself some tickets to Greece and um to to go see some family there after a couple of years of not going because of COVID, and you know, the tickets just looking at them a week before you know, the sort of announcement of RuSHA versus Ukraine, to to looking at them two weeks after that started happening. I mean, the tickets just absolutely skyrocketed. So I felt that pain too. But I think that I think that airlines understand that they're going to have to go back to UM efficiency, and you know, the news we're getting from a lot of them is that it's been better in terms of hiring. You know, they're paying more UM, They're they're finally sort of like getting a lot of the positions filled and whatnot. So it takes some time to to you know, settle in with all of this. But again, I think we're sort of like at the peak of the worst of that romane. If if Mike has a hard time booking his return flight back from California, you are more than welcome to be the new co host. He can just stay there. Yeah, he can just stay there. But Sylvia, um, you mentioned the shift uh in spending from goods to services, which a lot of people have been anticipating for a while now, And actually I was reading another note earlier this week that said SMP companies are just much more geared towards goods than they are services. So as this shift unfolds, we can actually start to see small cap companies start to benefit more as people start spending more on services, just because there's many more restaurants and leisure hotel those types of stocks within the rust of two thousands. So I'm wondering if you've been thinking about that and whether or not that also makes sense to you. Yeah, I mean I think that that's you know, it's a very broad based indexed and you know, while some of these names are represented there, I would rather just go to the source with this one. You know, I'd rather just kind of trade the sector itself, like I'd look at airlines, I look at hotels. I'd look at you know, cruise ships, and and maybe even some single stock names like the entertainment types of names. Um, just because I think that you know, a lot of a lot of a lot of the names in the small cap index will will definitely have some growth struggles in terms of you know, increased wraith and and whatnot. I do think that they'll you know, have more of an issue and say some of the mega cap stocks I'm still in the mega stock camp versus small caps. Well, I am curious so too. I mean to Danna's point too about the idea of of how the market is structure, or at least how we think it's xt you're here, There's been a lot of talk here about I guess, how you do more fundamental analysis in a world where companies are more wedded to not just services, but even sort of intangible items. Here, you don't really value a company like an alphabet or even an Apple for that matter, which sells physical goods, but they don't necessarily have that physical footprint that you know, the old school companies that you know, we would know like a ge or a Boeing or something like that would have And I wonder how you have to shift your mindset when you're trying to create, uh some sort of model for what value really is these days. Yeah, that's a great point. And if you think about you know, sort of the the number one thing that you know, you learn finance in terms of like fundamental analysis, right, you have to understand the company, You have to understand what they're intending to invest in. Um, you know, what they're doing exactly, who their competitors are. And there are definitely some things in our world, like metaverse for example, that that most people just don't really understand, but replacing super high valuations on right. Um, So I think though that you know, the way I look at things is in terms of actual analysis, Like you continue to study the financial reports of the company, You check the debt, you check the cash on hand. You know, you sort of take a look and compare, you know, what each company is doing to his or her competitor. But my big focus is is and you know, this is sort of a uh maybe a symptom or a benefit of working for thematic um investment firm is where is the it's where is the puck going? What are the secular um technological trends of the future. You know, what are we trying to do while we're trying to you know, fight climate change. So then you know that that's gonna take a really long time. But if you think about what that opens up for, it could be hydrogen, it could be green metals, and then you know you can kind of do your your fundamental analysis on a lot of the companies in that space. You know, if I think about again, communication, UM, semiconductors, things like AD I mean with Navidia and and D. You know, are a lot of people argue that there are very high valuations and this is kind of you know, where they should be. And you know, I disagree. I think they're they're grossly undervalued because they're they're part of every single you know, future secular trend, whether it's electric vehicles, whether it's UM you know, powering your your your coffee maker, or or you know, missile targeting during a war or UM you know everything basically AI A, A g R, you know all that stuff. So you mentioned the metaverse. You take something like metaverse or augmented reality, and there's still a lot of questions as to what's the tangible use case for some of that stuff. Yeah, it may be fun to play, but is there sort of a longer term strato you there that is going to make that a necessity in our lives? Yeah, So I think I think we could have like a very we could probably spend an hour debating, you know, the metaverse. And it's funny because I I do spend many years to making this with people work at Facebook that are working on it. In terms of just like on a basic level, I would rather go walking in the park than than you know, put on a headset and like maybe be in a park but with the head set on and like not looking at the birds of the trees around me and like you know, playing basketball versus getting a cool avatar with you know whatever. But but I think web three point oh is more of a tangible reality. And I think that you know, the technologies that will will power that or things that will also power the metaverse. So I think that you know, there is enough of a market for that, um but I would rather focus on sort of like web web three point or decentralized finance appear to appear, you know, transaction, the cryptocurrency, the blockchain opportunities. Um you know sort of how that changes the world. And I think that that is very very tangible, like you don't think about things like, um, you know, how how could that impact like shipping? Right? So, so smart contracts imagine you know all the build ups that we had in ports, for example, once Web three point I was sort of powered, and you have this smart contract, you can literally build in every single point of efficiency, like you know, the ships stay here for this amount of days because the port is cloud drops this off here. You know that there's just or even on a trading desk, right, you have back office mental office, like the twenty five functions to settle wound trade. All of that could be done with smart contracts. So there are these big you know, um uh you know use cases for for Web three point on. The stocks that won't make that up, And they happen to be the same stocks that are, you know, fighting to build the metaverse. So I think they get the benefit on the Web three outside. And you you mentioned cryptocurrencies, and I wanted to actually ask you what what's been behind your bullish call. I think you like both bitcoin and ether. I'm not sure what else you like in the cryptocurrency space, but what are some of the factors behind your call there? Yeah, again, going going back to UM, you know, the future of web three, oh, and the central finance. You know, all of that will be essentially powered by by a blockchain and cryptocurrency and you know ethere UM and UM they're going to be sort of the building blocks for for that for for the next iteration of what we know to we will know to be the Internet. UM. And then I think, you know, I just I really like the use case, right, I think that UM, you have El Salvador adopting it, you have UM, you have a lot of these like major cities trying to launch digital assets. There's this great desire to try to figure out how to make this work. UM. And I'm bullish on it because you know, institutions have jumped into it, they're buying it up. PTF products have been approved. You know, there are trust products out there, like gray Scale, bit wise, like through the billions, and all of that is you know, essentially through the purchasing of bitcoin and some of the other cryptocurrencies out there. So I'm just very bullish on the space in terms of investment, opportunity, what it's going to do for the future. I think people like exchanging um, you know, cryptocurrency for goods and services to It's just it's so new for us, and we don't really do a day to day but you know, there is this huge, um, huge contingent of people that actually you know, live their lives that way. Um, and I think it's going to spill over and become more mainstream. Do you think do you worry at all about the potential risk that a major government the US, Europe, China, uh, would at some point try to, I guess stand in the way of the progress that we've seen with cryptocurrency, either with their own digital currency or just some sort of stringent regulation. Yeah. I mean I think I think like China is really likely to do They've already done it, right. But um, in terms of the US, actually I took a lot of um, it took a lot of uh, you know, sort of positive you in um Jenny Yellin's greatest remarks because she was someone who was arguably really against this right and and you know, saying that it's just going to sort of like destroy the whole the whole system and whatnot, and just hearing her come around, not that she was you know, blessing it. I mean she certainly wasn't, but coming around to saying that, like she could see potentially the future use of this, and then you know, seeing what came out of the White House in terms of like let's let's think about thinking about it, and you know, the approval of some of these products and funds coming out just makes me think that, you know, regulators, yes, are looking to regulate this, but they're not looking to necessarily shut it down. And I think in some cases it's it's going to be it's almost like SPACs in a weird way, like I think SPAC regulation. A lot of people are saying like, oh my gosh, you guys freaking out because of you know, SPAC regulation of the SPACT. I actually think that that will be a good thing, right because people will now be confident in the financials that they're viewing and you know, the deal flows that they're seeing and you know, kind of like making sure that um, they're not you know, at a at a disadvantage to the founders of the blank check Company and whatnot. So sometimes regulation and need spaces can can be good and supportive, and speaking of SPACs, the metaverse, crypto, all of these crazy things. I think, Romaine, one of the things that Mike always tells us is our listeners are usually tuning in so that they can hear some of the craziest things that we saw in markets this weekend. I know Sylvia and I we're chatting before the podcast, and she said, there's an abundance, there's an overabundance of crazy things that have been happening in the market. So, Romaine, I hope you came prepared with something that you saw that really stuck out to you this week. Well, I mean, I honestly it's probably gonna sound a little bit boring, but honestly, the move higher that we continue to see uh in treasury yields and not just treasury yields really around the world here, and I think that when you talk about what's the narrative going forward for risk assets here, I mean a lot of it, of course, is tied to the Fed and the Central banks and tied to where benchmark yields go. And when you see these types of moves and how severe they are and how swift they are. Uh, it certainly gives you pause because it makes you wonder what are people pricing in. Are they pricing in a stronger economy or are they pricing in a weaker economy. You can look at it from both sides of the coin, and I've talked with traders who are on both sides, on either side of that trade. Uh So it's just kind of interesting to see how people interpret I guess the exact same move right, And Sylvie, I'm wondering actually how you how you would interpret that what's been going on in the churches market. Yeah, I mean, you know, I would echo that sentiment. I'm just sort of surprised by the daily move again, going back to you know, my common fun inflation and phily chain woes and pricing and things like that. I think that we're probably you know, at at a top with this, and you know, I would expect um, I would expect the tenure, for example, to to you know, come down by the end of the year UM and and sort of stabilize UM. And you know, I think like we saw it preopen today right when we when when you see this like this global bid for for sort of fond pushing equities up and and you know, looking at a green pre market and then you know, the whole thing turns around and a couple of things it starts moving. It's I think it's just all part of the same, you know, fear of inflation, fear of FED rate hikes, and people just sort of like not knowing what to do with all of it. So I think the volatility sort of persist, but it's going to it's it's yeah, it's surprising, agreed on that, but I think it's going to settle out. And what's something crazy you saw in markets? We I mean, honestly, it's it's like the I don't even know how much it's down now, but the hundred dollar plus UM crash of Netflix, right, I mean, I guess we don't. You know, that was my craziest thing too. I guess we're done with bridget In, right. Um No, I mean, look, I think it bodes well for Bothes, well for the reopen trade. Right, We're not watching TV anymore. We're gonna get out in the world and maybe reduce some of the subscription services and streaming and things like that. Um. But you know, I think that Netflix is very much a viable company that will be you know, that will do interesting things in the future. I think they'll have great content. People will sign up for it again. You know, once you get cold again, you're gonna start watching and and maybe like resubscribing and just paying a fee of share and whatever it is. But um, you know, I'm not buying it um here. But I am just surprised at how absolutely crushed that dot overnight. Yeah. That that that also was my craziest thing. And how could it not be at the gap between what while she was expecting in terms of new subscribers and Netflix actually losing two hundred thousand customers for the first time I think it was in a decade, was just its astounding. Yeah. And I mean the thing too, I thought was more iNeST I mean, it's good that you bring up sort of the gap between what uh they guided for and what they actually delivered here. But then you go forward and the tone that you heard out of read to Hastings and some of the other executives really didn't give you a lot of hope that this was going to turn around. But this we're still talking about a company that is still I think the number of subscribers that it has is still well above where it was pre pandemic, so it hasn't really lost all of that boom just yet. And you know, once they come up with the next uh you know, bergertain or money heist or whatever, the next big show is going to be, I guess people will flock back into it. So, Sylvia, since you stole my craziest thing, I suppose I have to actually revert back to cryptocurrencies, which I very frequently do because there's so much crazy stuff happening in that space. But I've actually been getting a lot of notes about bitcoin recently that I've been calling Bitcoin's recent moves boring, which is like, who who would have thought? It's been stuck in sort of this very narrow trading range and really hasn't been able to break out so far this year, really, and so people of started calling the moves in bitcoin boring or somebody an analystized book with I said it's been as dull as watching grass growth. So that maybe actually is you know, the non event in crypto is the craziest thing this week as well. Yeah, I would agree, and and you know, maybe for me that's another plus sign in terms of this is now an investable asset, right, because it's become a little more boring and you don't see those percent moved in it in a day or a week anymore. Um, I think the bitcoin is behaving, cryptocurrency is behaving like the NASDAC one hundred. I think if you take some of the the higher beta stocks out there, it would be you know, a perfect hedge to it. And I'm not, you know, super surprised by that. I think that at some point it's going to start just marching upwards and separating from the market a little bit. But for now, it looks like investors are you know, looking at bitcoin as as a as an equity type of play. And also, don't forget we all just paid taxes, right, and I think this is the first time where people like I mean, hopefully everybody has paid their taxes on their cypo over the years, but I don't know that that's been the case from what I've heard. You know, this was the first year where a lot of people got some some some pretty hepthy bills. And we're crypto trading, so you know, I think part of that that money that will come back into the market, cryptos is is taking some time off for for a couple of case post April A teams. Yeah, it'll be really interesting to watch. I'd heard that reason is one of the reasons that I've been selling off the last couple of weeks. Um, but I think that does it for us. I want to thank both of you for joining us remain I'm really sort of hoping Mike gets stuck in California. Maybe you can join us again next week. He knows we're we love Mike. He's my favorite death exactly. And Sylvia, thanks so much for joining us as well. It's been great to have you. Yeah, thank you so much for having me. Um, hope you hope you're both doing well all right? Thanksful Dotta, Thanks Sylvia, what goes up. We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. Would love it if you took the time to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can find us. And you can find us on Twitter follow me at Veldonna Hirick. Romaine Bostick is at Romaine Bostick, and you can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at at Podcasts, and thank you to Charlie Pellett of Bloomberg Radio. What Goes Up is produced by Stacy Wong. The head of Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesco Levie. Thanks for listening and we'll see you next time.

Hi, I'MBLDNA Higher Across Acid Reporter with Bloomberg and Armed Romaine Bostic, and this week on the show, well, investors have a lot of worries to deal with inflation, COVID, the war in Ukraine, China's lockdowns, and the fresh supply chain was all of that's igniting. The list goes on. Many Monday managers have by now reduced their expectations for soccer returns this year. But what affears over recession are overblown and the second half of the year turns out better than expected. We're going to get into all of that with a well known investment advisor. But first, Romaine, welcome to the show. Thanks so much for joining us this week. You're filling in from Mike, who's galvanting in California right now. I believe California. He's on vacation. He is, he's on vacation. Hopefully he's having having a lot of fun. But I'm wondering if I tell the listeners a secret about you. Wow, Okay, you're starting off strong. Yeah, yeah, just kicking kicking, kicking things off really really strongly. You You've been a Bloomberg for something like two decades, right not to aid you. Well, you've just aged me. Yes, and I have been here one years to be exact, last January. Yeah, it's a long time, but you know, I've had a great time here, and you know, you think about all those different market cycles that you cover, the economic cycles, not only in the twenty one years i've been here, but of course, uh in my career before I haven't got here. Yeah, you're a Bloomberg TV veteran. So we're really lucky to have you this week. Um, but I do I do want to introduce our our guest. We're joined by Sylvia Jablonski this week. She's the CEO, c I O and co founder of Defiance E t F S. Welcome to the show, Sylvia, I thank you so much for having me. Happy to be here today. It's great to have you. Maybe just to start out, you can sort of give us an overview of Defiance and what you guys are forcused on. I know you're heavily focused on thematics, but just give us a little bit back on on you and the company. Yeah, sure, i'd be happy to um. So, Defiance is a company that is focused on thematic ETF investing so we'd like to think of ourselves as an E t F firm and an investment company that provides access to some of the most disruptive and and you know, futuristic themes out there. UM. We have E t F s that that cover different topics like five G quantum computing, hydrogen psychedelics, UM, the reopen trade and f t s for example. So we're really focused on that next generation trader UM. You know, the trailings involve coming down fromt the baby boomers to sort of younger people who are interested in what is technology, se semiconductors, communication and and the things things like UM that for tomorrow will look like UM. So are our main goals to come out with part of their cost efficient and giving access to these different sectors. We're also heavily invested in digital assets and and very interested in building out in that space. My role at the company is CEO and c i O, so I do a lot of work in terms of providing research, investment ideas, investment strategies just generally on you know, the market different market insight, and then also UM working on the E t F side itself, still helping with things like product development and you know, managing, uh, the overall direction of the firm. Well, Sylvia, let's start off here and really kind of talk a little bit. I think about just kind of how the investment landscape has changed. I mean down of course, starts off by aging me out real quick. So I'll just kind of pick up where she left off. You know, when I, you know, first got out of college and I started investing, I literally walked into a t row Price office of physical office, and you know, got a mutual fund and I had you know, a certain percentage of my paycheck taken out every month that then I'll go into that fund. And it was a slow slog, but that was investing for the individual investor that was investing. And what we look at today is so much different now just the options that individual investors have, both in terms of the asset classes, but also the sophistication that you get now that you have access to now that you didn't necessarily get back then, and obviously that gives you the potential for a greater return. And I guess to build a nest egg in a more layered way and into a certain extent of faster way than you could in the past when people come to you and talk to you, and not just the individual investors, but even some of the institutions here. Are they cognizant of that? Are they cognizant of just how much has changed? Yeah? And and that's a great, great thought and a great question. And you know, I can probably age myself along with you, because that's about when I started in this industry too. And you know when I started UM. I started my career Deutsche Bank, working in baqued derivatives, and and you know, we're sort of um the younger folks, and the investment banking training program revised by the older folks to take a percentage of our UM income and put it into the SMP five hundred and the bank would match, which that never I don't know if that happens at Bloomberg, but that never happens anymore anywhere else. The bank would match it, and you just kind of leave it there. And and twenty years later, lo and behold, got a lot of money in there. Right. But UM, which is great and actually historically has worked really well. Right, we know that the SMP five hundred analyzed return is UM is about you know, twelve percenter, So so that's great. But in the last couple of years there have been all these awesome themes and and different you know sorts of movements and progressions in the market, particularly around UH technology and particularly around cryptocurrency in the blockchain, and you know a lot of these investments have really been high flyers. So for for young people, young traders that you know, have risk appetite, have sort of the income to let's say, take a chance because there's a lot of risk. You know, they have these great options in terms of what they can invest in, and and that varies from you know, bitcoin to the future of the metaverse to you web three point out to some of these concepts that don't exist yet. And you know, usually what happens with with that is it's really interesting because this is actually how how it went at at Defiance, right, we came out with the first five g e t F, and and this was you know, just just gobbled up by young retail investors, so that credit crowd, that um, that Robin Hood trader. You know, we could just tell by the size of the trades that these were not institutional players. And then you know, the e t F gets past that half a billion dollar mark and now all of a sudden, if you look at you know, you look on Bloomberg and you look at the top holders, they're they're now institutions, right, So I think what you know to your point, I think, you know, retail traders, um, young investors sort of figure out the trends before, before their trends, and then you know, when some of them really snowball and become bigger and see a lot of it, you I'm going into them. I think it piques the interest of advisors. You know, they then do their due diligence and they've got that five to tem percent sleeve of you know, sort of speculative raids or um, you know, disruptive technologies that they're willing to put money into and and and they allocate and sylvy just to keep it keep. Get get some more of your your thoughts on what's been going on with markets. I was reading this note earlier this week that said the SMP five hundred has cross above it's two hundred day moving average more than five times so far this year, a cross below it's six times so far this year. So, just how are you making sense of what's been going on with the market and how does it actually feel to be a part of this or to be invested right now? Uh? You know, I think if you ask the average investor, my my guess is that they would say it doesn't feel super good to be an investment in the market this year. It's not it's not as fun as it has been for the last decade, let's say, or you know, even even sort of like those those few months post COVID where everything you started going straight up and you know, are are all of our trading accounts look great? We all look like geniuses. And you know, now, I think the market just just has a lot of headwinds. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. You have, you know, a FED that wants to raise rates for lower inflation, um and not creative recession. You know, hear about this like soft length landing. You know, inflation has been higher than ever. Um. You have issues with geopolitics. You you essentially have have all war Russia Ukraine situation. You have a strain on perhaps um you know, major commodities, oil gas, you know, and then sort of circling down depending on how how long this goes into we and different things, UM. And you know you have you have a lot of essentially fear that the combination of FED hikes and inflation will will create a situation where, um, you know, we're we're sort of in in stagculation or perhaps just don't have don't have great growth in the future. But you know, my take on this is, you know, so here we are, it makes sense. Um there there as we said, a lot of these headwinds to them market. But UM, what that means is that you're going to have this rangebound volatility. The market is going to trade, as you said, you know, in these levels, whether it's a sp other industries like NAZAC or sort of in a bear market. But what I think is that inflation, but geopolitics are likely at this point priced into the market. UM. And I think that consumer remains strong. I think that you know, historically, tightening monetary policy is followed by solid gains SMP rising at about nine percent or so. You know, companies have money, consumers are spending. Um, inflation is likely. So I actually think that we're going to have a pretty decent year. I just think that in the short term it's going to be um, not so fun. Everything you mentioned there, they seem like economic problems, and in the past, when we talk about market downturns, at least some of the bigger shocks to that market turned out to be more centered around the financial system. And I'm wondering, if you see any of the sort of economic weaknesses that everyone's pointing to today, whether that has any real material carry over into financial markets in the sense that it could cause some sort of destabilization in capital markets. You know, I think I think that if if a lot of the topics I just discussed were to go in a different place, For example, if the FED hikes you know, more aggressively, um and and sort of doesn't doesn't feel satisfied with with inflation falling, and you know, you start to see um kind of a harder landing than you know, I do think that some of that will start feeding into the market. Um. You know, banks are in good shape, so this isn't two thousand eight, right cutting some pretty good shape. The consumers in good shape. The depth servicing ratios are stronger than than they've been in decades, So you know, consumers essentially have these two shillion in savings. They have lower amounts of death than they've ever had before. Um, so I think that I think that the market can be more resilient this time. And I know famous last words, right, it's it's it's different this time. But well, it is different to a certain extent because when you look at the past cycles, say go back past a decade or two ago, you're talking about rates that were coming from a much different baseline. Here. I mean, to go from near zero to three. Let's assume that's the neutral rate here. I mean an economy or a capital market that can't withstand but three federal funds rate. Yeah, right, and then real rates are still you know, hovering, hovering, um, you know, negative levels. Right. So so that's another factor, like I just don't I think some of this is you know, some of this is an actual shaine on the market, right. But in the near term where we are today, I mean, this is very unlikely to highly impact some of the quality you know, megacap companies out there, like the Amazons, the Apples, like these companies that have pricing power, um, you know, against strong consumer, strong balance sheets, are doing buybacks and all that kind of thing. Like, I don't think it's going to impact those companies. A lot of the high growth names are you know, with high doubt levels will be impacted, but you know they're they're just always sort of in that position, right UM, where where they're volatile, and rate hikes kind of throw off the performance that But I think the broad based economy can withstand um, you know, what we're expecting anyway in terms of rate hikes. So then if if things are a little bit brighter in the second half of the year, or if we do have a sort of trade I think you call it a tradeable bottom. At this point, what are you recommending? What? What are you telling people when they ask you what they should be investing in? Yeah, so you know, it's it's important to sort of classify what type of trader you are too, right, So I think if you're looking for, you know, short term returns UM, I think that's trickier. You know, I think the machines and high frequency guys do a great job with that, but I think you know, the average investor that was doing well with UM, you know, kind of day trading over the past year, it becomes little are dangerous just because you do have so much range round volatility. You know, just look at the difference in in the NAZAC for example, UM, over the last couple of days and the performance there. But I think if you have, you know, an appetite to be a long term investor and to get really the deal of a century, I think, UM, you know, take a step back and look at names like Apple, Google, Microsoft Again, you've got negative real rates, companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power UM, consumers willing to spend money we tell, you know, we tell sales rising, and then just the theme of cyber security, cloud um, you know, metaverse, web three point oh, the future of all technology kind of hangs in the balance of these companies. So I just you know, and I think even the semi conductors like Niviti and m D they're just been absolutely crushed. UM. I just think that, you know, the longer term outlook for those names, it's going to be what buying Apple was ten years ago. You know, that's you're you're going to see those compounded returns. I also love the reopen trade. You know, we know that spending is going from goods to services UM, and it is increasing, but you know, lifting the mask mandates UM. You know this this post COVID getting out of the house. There I mean, there's just so much pent up demand to travel. You know, Delta earnings UM call was pretty awesome, Like March is the best year that they had ever in terms of like business bookings. That's a good trade. Hotels, cruises, you know, caristinos, airlines. I mean, that's a good place to look in the near term. Yeah, I think Mike Reagan would agree, considering that he just got on a flight out to California and Sylvia. I've done a lot of booking travel myself here for personal reasons over the last few months, though, But I do wonder are we in a situation, at least in the short term, where all of that pent up demand sort of overwhelmed supply. I mean, anyone who's tried to book a flight knows that prices are considerably higher than what you would have paid a couple of years ago. Even finding a ticket at all can be kind of difficult given some of the capacity constraints that some of these airlines that put themselves in. And you're seeing that with other services businesses as well, including a cruise, ships and some hotels and resorts. Yeah, and that's a great you know, that's a great point, and I think that that is actually one of the one of the major contributing factors to inflation. It's you know, sort of similar but also different to the supply chain issues with semiconductors and trying to buy a car and things like that. But you know, all of that is going to take time to to shake out, and it feels like we're in the peak of it. I mean, I agree with you. I I just booked myself some tickets to Greece and um to to go see some family there after a couple of years of not going because of COVID, and you know, the tickets just looking at them a week before you know, the sort of announcement of RuSHA versus Ukraine, to to looking at them two weeks after that started happening. I mean, the tickets just absolutely skyrocketed. So I felt that pain too. But I think that I think that airlines understand that they're going to have to go back to UM efficiency, and you know, the news we're getting from a lot of them is that it's been better in terms of hiring. You know, they're paying more UM, They're they're finally sort of like getting a lot of the positions filled and whatnot. So it takes some time to to you know, settle in with all of this. But again, I think we're sort of like at the peak of the worst of that romane. If if Mike has a hard time booking his return flight back from California, you are more than welcome to be the new co host. He can just stay there. Yeah, he can just stay there. But Sylvia, um, you mentioned the shift uh in spending from goods to services, which a lot of people have been anticipating for a while now, And actually I was reading another note earlier this week that said SMP companies are just much more geared towards goods than they are services. So as this shift unfolds, we can actually start to see small cap companies start to benefit more as people start spending more on services, just because there's many more restaurants and leisure hotel those types of stocks within the rust of two thousands. So I'm wondering if you've been thinking about that and whether or not that also makes sense to you. Yeah, I mean I think that that's you know, it's a very broad based indexed and you know, while some of these names are represented there, I would rather just go to the source with this one. You know, I'd rather just kind of trade the sector itself, like I'd look at airlines, I look at hotels. I'd look at you know, cruise ships, and and maybe even some single stock names like the entertainment types of names. Um, just because I think that you know, a lot of a lot of a lot of the names in the small cap index will will definitely have some growth struggles in terms of you know, increased wraith and and whatnot. I do think that they'll you know, have more of an issue and say some of the mega cap stocks I'm still in the mega stock camp versus small caps. Well, I am curious so too. I mean to Danna's point too about the idea of of how the market is structure, or at least how we think it's xt you're here, There's been a lot of talk here about I guess, how you do more fundamental analysis in a world where companies are more wedded to not just services, but even sort of intangible items. Here, you don't really value a company like an alphabet or even an Apple for that matter, which sells physical goods, but they don't necessarily have that physical footprint that you know, the old school companies that you know, we would know like a ge or a Boeing or something like that would have And I wonder how you have to shift your mindset when you're trying to create, uh some sort of model for what value really is these days. Yeah, that's a great point. And if you think about you know, sort of the the number one thing that you know, you learn finance in terms of like fundamental analysis, right, you have to understand the company, You have to understand what they're intending to invest in. Um, you know, what they're doing exactly, who their competitors are. And there are definitely some things in our world, like metaverse for example, that that most people just don't really understand, but replacing super high valuations on right. Um, So I think though that you know, the way I look at things is in terms of actual analysis, Like you continue to study the financial reports of the company, You check the debt, you check the cash on hand. You know, you sort of take a look and compare, you know, what each company is doing to his or her competitor. But my big focus is is and you know, this is sort of a uh maybe a symptom or a benefit of working for thematic um investment firm is where is the it's where is the puck going? What are the secular um technological trends of the future. You know, what are we trying to do while we're trying to you know, fight climate change. So then you know that that's gonna take a really long time. But if you think about what that opens up for, it could be hydrogen, it could be green metals, and then you know you can kind of do your your fundamental analysis on a lot of the companies in that space. You know, if I think about again, communication, UM, semiconductors, things like AD I mean with Navidia and and D. You know, are a lot of people argue that there are very high valuations and this is kind of you know, where they should be. And you know, I disagree. I think they're they're grossly undervalued because they're they're part of every single you know, future secular trend, whether it's electric vehicles, whether it's UM you know, powering your your your coffee maker, or or you know, missile targeting during a war or UM you know everything basically AI A, A g R, you know all that stuff. So you mentioned the metaverse. You take something like metaverse or augmented reality, and there's still a lot of questions as to what's the tangible use case for some of that stuff. Yeah, it may be fun to play, but is there sort of a longer term strato you there that is going to make that a necessity in our lives? Yeah, So I think I think we could have like a very we could probably spend an hour debating, you know, the metaverse. And it's funny because I I do spend many years to making this with people work at Facebook that are working on it. In terms of just like on a basic level, I would rather go walking in the park than than you know, put on a headset and like maybe be in a park but with the head set on and like not looking at the birds of the trees around me and like you know, playing basketball versus getting a cool avatar with you know whatever. But but I think web three point oh is more of a tangible reality. And I think that you know, the technologies that will will power that or things that will also power the metaverse. So I think that you know, there is enough of a market for that, um but I would rather focus on sort of like web web three point or decentralized finance appear to appear, you know, transaction, the cryptocurrency, the blockchain opportunities. Um you know sort of how that changes the world. And I think that that is very very tangible, like you don't think about things like, um, you know, how how could that impact like shipping? Right? So, so smart contracts imagine you know all the build ups that we had in ports, for example, once Web three point I was sort of powered, and you have this smart contract, you can literally build in every single point of efficiency, like you know, the ships stay here for this amount of days because the port is cloud drops this off here. You know that there's just or even on a trading desk, right, you have back office mental office, like the twenty five functions to settle wound trade. All of that could be done with smart contracts. So there are these big you know, um uh you know use cases for for Web three point on. The stocks that won't make that up, And they happen to be the same stocks that are, you know, fighting to build the metaverse. So I think they get the benefit on the Web three outside. And you you mentioned cryptocurrencies, and I wanted to actually ask you what what's been behind your bullish call. I think you like both bitcoin and ether. I'm not sure what else you like in the cryptocurrency space, but what are some of the factors behind your call there? Yeah, again, going going back to UM, you know, the future of web three, oh, and the central finance. You know, all of that will be essentially powered by by a blockchain and cryptocurrency and you know ethere UM and UM they're going to be sort of the building blocks for for that for for the next iteration of what we know to we will know to be the Internet. UM. And then I think, you know, I just I really like the use case, right, I think that UM, you have El Salvador adopting it, you have UM, you have a lot of these like major cities trying to launch digital assets. There's this great desire to try to figure out how to make this work. UM. And I'm bullish on it because you know, institutions have jumped into it, they're buying it up. PTF products have been approved. You know, there are trust products out there, like gray Scale, bit wise, like through the billions, and all of that is you know, essentially through the purchasing of bitcoin and some of the other cryptocurrencies out there. So I'm just very bullish on the space in terms of investment, opportunity, what it's going to do for the future. I think people like exchanging um, you know, cryptocurrency for goods and services to It's just it's so new for us, and we don't really do a day to day but you know, there is this huge, um, huge contingent of people that actually you know, live their lives that way. Um, and I think it's going to spill over and become more mainstream. Do you think do you worry at all about the potential risk that a major government the US, Europe, China, uh, would at some point try to, I guess stand in the way of the progress that we've seen with cryptocurrency, either with their own digital currency or just some sort of stringent regulation. Yeah. I mean I think I think like China is really likely to do They've already done it, right. But um, in terms of the US, actually I took a lot of um, it took a lot of uh, you know, sort of positive you in um Jenny Yellin's greatest remarks because she was someone who was arguably really against this right and and you know, saying that it's just going to sort of like destroy the whole the whole system and whatnot, and just hearing her come around, not that she was you know, blessing it. I mean she certainly wasn't, but coming around to saying that, like she could see potentially the future use of this, and then you know, seeing what came out of the White House in terms of like let's let's think about thinking about it, and you know, the approval of some of these products and funds coming out just makes me think that, you know, regulators, yes, are looking to regulate this, but they're not looking to necessarily shut it down. And I think in some cases it's it's going to be it's almost like SPACs in a weird way, like I think SPAC regulation. A lot of people are saying like, oh my gosh, you guys freaking out because of you know, SPAC regulation of the SPACT. I actually think that that will be a good thing, right because people will now be confident in the financials that they're viewing and you know, the deal flows that they're seeing and you know, kind of like making sure that um, they're not you know, at a at a disadvantage to the founders of the blank check Company and whatnot. So sometimes regulation and need spaces can can be good and supportive, and speaking of SPACs, the metaverse, crypto, all of these crazy things. I think, Romaine, one of the things that Mike always tells us is our listeners are usually tuning in so that they can hear some of the craziest things that we saw in markets this weekend. I know Sylvia and I we're chatting before the podcast, and she said, there's an abundance, there's an overabundance of crazy things that have been happening in the market. So, Romaine, I hope you came prepared with something that you saw that really stuck out to you this week. Well, I mean, I honestly it's probably gonna sound a little bit boring, but honestly, the move higher that we continue to see uh in treasury yields and not just treasury yields really around the world here, and I think that when you talk about what's the narrative going forward for risk assets here, I mean a lot of it, of course, is tied to the Fed and the Central banks and tied to where benchmark yields go. And when you see these types of moves and how severe they are and how swift they are. Uh, it certainly gives you pause because it makes you wonder what are people pricing in. Are they pricing in a stronger economy or are they pricing in a weaker economy. You can look at it from both sides of the coin, and I've talked with traders who are on both sides, on either side of that trade. Uh So it's just kind of interesting to see how people interpret I guess the exact same move right, And Sylvie, I'm wondering actually how you how you would interpret that what's been going on in the churches market. Yeah, I mean, you know, I would echo that sentiment. I'm just sort of surprised by the daily move again, going back to you know, my common fun inflation and phily chain woes and pricing and things like that. I think that we're probably you know, at at a top with this, and you know, I would expect um, I would expect the tenure, for example, to to you know, come down by the end of the year UM and and sort of stabilize UM. And you know, I think like we saw it preopen today right when we when when you see this like this global bid for for sort of fond pushing equities up and and you know, looking at a green pre market and then you know, the whole thing turns around and a couple of things it starts moving. It's I think it's just all part of the same, you know, fear of inflation, fear of FED rate hikes, and people just sort of like not knowing what to do with all of it. So I think the volatility sort of persist, but it's going to it's it's yeah, it's surprising, agreed on that, but I think it's going to settle out. And what's something crazy you saw in markets? We I mean, honestly, it's it's like the I don't even know how much it's down now, but the hundred dollar plus UM crash of Netflix, right, I mean, I guess we don't. You know, that was my craziest thing too. I guess we're done with bridget In, right. Um No, I mean, look, I think it bodes well for Bothes, well for the reopen trade. Right, We're not watching TV anymore. We're gonna get out in the world and maybe reduce some of the subscription services and streaming and things like that. Um. But you know, I think that Netflix is very much a viable company that will be you know, that will do interesting things in the future. I think they'll have great content. People will sign up for it again. You know, once you get cold again, you're gonna start watching and and maybe like resubscribing and just paying a fee of share and whatever it is. But um, you know, I'm not buying it um here. But I am just surprised at how absolutely crushed that dot overnight. Yeah. That that that also was my craziest thing. And how could it not be at the gap between what while she was expecting in terms of new subscribers and Netflix actually losing two hundred thousand customers for the first time I think it was in a decade, was just its astounding. Yeah. And I mean the thing too, I thought was more iNeST I mean, it's good that you bring up sort of the gap between what uh they guided for and what they actually delivered here. But then you go forward and the tone that you heard out of read to Hastings and some of the other executives really didn't give you a lot of hope that this was going to turn around. But this we're still talking about a company that is still I think the number of subscribers that it has is still well above where it was pre pandemic, so it hasn't really lost all of that boom just yet. And you know, once they come up with the next uh you know, bergertain or money heist or whatever, the next big show is going to be, I guess people will flock back into it. So, Sylvia, since you stole my craziest thing, I suppose I have to actually revert back to cryptocurrencies, which I very frequently do because there's so much crazy stuff happening in that space. But I've actually been getting a lot of notes about bitcoin recently that I've been calling Bitcoin's recent moves boring, which is like, who who would have thought? It's been stuck in sort of this very narrow trading range and really hasn't been able to break out so far this year, really, and so people of started calling the moves in bitcoin boring or somebody an analystized book with I said it's been as dull as watching grass growth. So that maybe actually is you know, the non event in crypto is the craziest thing this week as well. Yeah, I would agree, and and you know, maybe for me that's another plus sign in terms of this is now an investable asset, right, because it's become a little more boring and you don't see those percent moved in it in a day or a week anymore. Um, I think the bitcoin is behaving, cryptocurrency is behaving like the NASDAC one hundred. I think if you take some of the the higher beta stocks out there, it would be you know, a perfect hedge to it. And I'm not, you know, super surprised by that. I think that at some point it's going to start just marching upwards and separating from the market a little bit. But for now, it looks like investors are you know, looking at bitcoin as as a as an equity type of play. And also, don't forget we all just paid taxes, right, and I think this is the first time where people like I mean, hopefully everybody has paid their taxes on their cypo over the years, but I don't know that that's been the case from what I've heard. You know, this was the first year where a lot of people got some some some pretty hepthy bills. And we're crypto trading, so you know, I think part of that that money that will come back into the market, cryptos is is taking some time off for for a couple of case post April A teams. Yeah, it'll be really interesting to watch. I'd heard that reason is one of the reasons that I've been selling off the last couple of weeks. Um, but I think that does it for us. I want to thank both of you for joining us remain I'm really sort of hoping Mike gets stuck in California. Maybe you can join us again next week. He knows we're we love Mike. He's my favorite death exactly. And Sylvia, thanks so much for joining us as well. It's been great to have you. Yeah, thank you so much for having me. Um, hope you hope you're both doing well all right? Thanksful Dotta, Thanks Sylvia, what goes up. We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. Would love it if you took the time to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can find us. And you can find us on Twitter follow me at Veldonna Hirick. Romaine Bostick is at Romaine Bostick, and you can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at at Podcasts, and thank you to Charlie Pellett of Bloomberg Radio. What Goes Up is produced by Stacy Wong. The head of Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesco Levie. Thanks for listening and we'll see you next time.