College Football Playoff First Round Preview & Best Bets | December 20th, 2024

Published Dec 19, 2024, 11:34 PM

Tim Murray and Matt Youmans are fired up as the College Football Playoff is here! Tim & Matt previewed all four games and dished out some best bets. 

Plus, Tim chats with KTNV meteorologist Justin Bruce at the end of the podcast to get a forecast for the CFP games this weekend.

The Main Course

Indiana at Notre Dame (MY & TM bet)

SMU at Penn St

Clemson at Texas

Tennessee at Ohio St (MY & TM bet)

Other Bowl Games Bets Discussed

Cure Bowl: Ohio vs Jacksonville St

Hawaii Bowl: USF vs San Jose St

Holiday Bowl: Syracuse vs Washington St

Fenway Bowl: UConn vs North Carolina

ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama vs Michigan

This is Vison's college football betting podcast.

Welcome in another edition of the Vsin College Football Betting Podcast.

I'm your host, Tim Murray.

I'm here at the d in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada, as we are getting closer to the start of the college football playoff first round. Four games, one on Friday, three on Saturday. Mister humans, how are you feeling for the first ever twelve team college football playoffs?

We fired up about it. I think this is great and we're going to see this field expand in the future. But twelve teams is so much better than the system we've had in the past. Tim, I remember writing a column when I worked in Chicago and newspapers in the late nineties about how college football should go to an eighteen playoff, and he took about thirty years to get there. Seriously, what took so long? Seriously? You know what? This system is so much better than what we previous had. It's a joke, and it's amazing we went so long with two teams and four teams playing for the national championship. This is better for the books, it's better for the betters, everybody involved. Fans, even if you're not a better. Everything about college football is better because of this twelve team playoffs.

Yeah, there's no doubt. I mean, and I have been a proponent for it.

People said, oh, it's going to devalue the regular season couldn't have been further from the truth. We had massive games all throughout the year and here we are. We've got teams we didn't expect to make the college football Playoff, like Indiana, like SMU, and we got teams that we expected to be here in the playoff, like Notre Dame, like Texas. I was about to say Alabama, they are not in it, but yes, we have got a great field ahead of us. By the way, hello to all of you joining us on Twitter on x at VS Live. We are live there as well as on YouTube, YouTube dot com slash vsin Live, So chime in and be part of the conversation, and as always, please rate, review, and subscribe to the podcast wherever you get your podcast.

We've got four playoff games to get to.

We'll hit on a couple of bowl games too a little bit later on here in the show. But let's do what we always do, get into the biggest games of the weekend, and we call that.

The main course, the main course.

All right, Matt, let's jump right into it. Friday night, South Bend, Indiana. It's gonna be cold. There might be some snow there in in South Bend. Our colleague, the Pride of Indiana University, West Reynolds, will be in attendance.

He's all fired up. I already talked to him.

He's got his Indiana plus seven and a half ticket in pocket. He's going to have a little money line there. Looking at the market right now, as we are about thirty hours or so away from kickoff, pretty much all of the hooks have been scooped up. So we've seen some Indiana backing come into the market. We see some juice sevens, we see some flat sevens. We actually see a seven five at CIRCA. Total has ticked up a little bit to fifty two. We're going to dive into this game and dissect it every which way possible.

But let's go side in total first.

Here Matt, Indiana at Notre Dame, eight pm on ABC and ESPN, Friday night.

All right, I took seven and a half with the Hoosiers. Also bet this under the total of fifty one, and we got a bad number because now I was fifty two out there. I'm going to bet it again under the total of fifty two. Our buddy Chris de bar Felikas talked about this for a week to ten days how he thinks it's going to be a run oriented game that's going to be low scoring, and I completely agree with that. I think that's the way both teams are going to play it. Tim, And you know, maybe the weather is a factor too. You were talking about cold snow. Are we going to have any wins up in the South Bend on Friday night? Anyway, it's going to be great football weather. It's going to be a phenomenal atmosphere. But for Indiana, when you handicap the Hoosiers and this is West Reynolds.

Against Tim Murray, yes it is battle all right.

Indiana season basically comes down when you're handicapping this Notre Dame game. Indiana season comes down to two games, Michigan and Ohio State. How did the Hoosiers fare against both of those opponents? And let's face it, the Wolverines improved dramatically late in the season. I mean they went to Columbus without two of their best players and beat the Buck guys. So you got to give Michigan respect. I know a lot of people were trying to downgrade Indiana because the Hoosiers struggled to beat Michigan twenty to fifteen in that game in Bloomington. Well, you saw what the Wolverines did to the Buckeyes. Don't downgrade Indiana for that. Well, Indiana did have trouble trying to run the ball against both teams. Against Michigan, the Hoosiers ran it twenty eight times for forty yards. That includes Curtis Works minus twenty eight in sackyards, So a little bit deceiving, But bottom line, Indiana ran for about two yards of carry against Michigan. What the Hoosiers do against Ohio State they ran up forty times for eighty five yards. Again, there were some lost yard. It's on a botch punt and snap and Curtis works sackyard. Indiana's main two running backs, Lawton and Ellison, combined for thirty two carries and one hundred and forty one yards, But Curtis Rourke was eight for eighteen for sixty eight yards. Really couldn't throw it at the bottom line here, tim is, I think the Hoosiers are going to have trouble moving the ball against this Notre Dame defense, and Indiana's defensive front is strong enough to hold up to where I don't think the Irish is going to run rough shot over on Friday night. You know, I love this Notre Dame offense, at least what it can do on the ground with Ridley Leonard, Jeremiah Love Engineerian Price, two stud running backs. And I've said this many times. I think Ridley Leonard is a poor man's Josh Allen type the way he can escape pressure, get outside the pocket, and he's athletic enough to make plays. Again, Notre Dame number three in the nation in scoring defense thirteen point six points per games. Indiana defense has been legit as well, and I think that Ohio State score is a little bit misleading because of the two big blunders on special teams that helped the Buck guys pull away in that game. Indiana plus seven and a half under the total bet again under fifty two.

Eight pm on Friday, and as mentioned, whether ten to twenty mile an hour wins could see a little bit of snow there. More of the snow, from my understanding, will be early on the day on Friday, so could affect the game certainly from that standpoint. So, Matt, I want to get into a prop that I played in this particular game, and it's the tight end for Notre Dame Mitchell Evans. And if you look at a couple of books Fan Duel, DraftKings, Bet, MGM, they all have props that are out there and I'm sure more will start to percolate here as we get closer. Notre Dame has a tight end in Mitchell Evans. That was their go to receiver a year ago when they faced Ohio State and really couldn't get much going offensively. They relied on Mitchell Evans seven catches in that game against Ohio State for seventy five yards. And then the following game when they went on the road to take on then nationally ranked Duke he had over one hundred yards receiving in that game against the Blue Devils. And I bring that up because this year has been a little bit off for Mitchell Evans, the tight end for the Iris. Why because he tore his ACL October twenty eighth last year against Pittsburgh and hasn't been one hundred percent until recently. His best Game of the Year came against usc at five catches for fifty nine yards. Now, one of those catches was on a fake punt thrown by former Notre Dame quarterback Tyler Buckner. But still they're incorporating him more and everything you hear and you read and you watch about Indiana, they like to play zone defense. I know that's going to be an issue from many that believe that Riley Leonard struggles a bit with zone defense. I think Notre Dame is going to play it's smart. They're not going to try to force the ball down the field. They've had some drops that have been a concern there for the Iris special Clemson transfer Bo Collins, also Jordan Faison. I think Notre Dame is going to see a mismatch at the tight end position. And the number is twenty seven and a half receiving yards for Mitchell Evans. Now, if you look at so far this year, twenty seven and a half matt would seem about on par right. He has only eclipsed that number twice this season, but it came in two of the last three games he's healthy. Now, I think he's going to be a key target. I wouldn't be opposed to going anytime touchdown with Mitchell Evans or you know, alt numbers fifty plus receiving yards at over three to one, I think he could have a big game here for the Irish. When it comes to this Notre Dame and how the season has played out, Marcus Freeman has continued to circle back to week two. I bet that you had on this podcast Northern Illinois plus twenty eight. Now, I don't know if you had any money line in pocket on that one, but they lost that game sixteen to fourteen, Matt, and that has been a rallying cry for this Irish team.

Let's hear from the head coach, Marcus Freeman.

What would be lying if if I say I don't think about you know that loss or being upset.

Fear is a.

Motivator and it is what it is. A lot of people are motivated by fear. Agreed, And there's times that I have to remind mysel of what's the result of not preparing the right way.

Now, once again, it's the playoffs. You don't need motivation. Everybody's going to be motivated. But you think back to that Northern Illinois game. One tenth straight, they've covered nine of those ten. The only game they did not cover against the closing number was against Miami, So you've seen a different mindset from this Irish team. So I don't have a play on the side or total. I would actually lean a little bit your way on Indiana. I think the curiosity that I have is Indiana going to be able to run the ball against the Irish. Northern Illinois could, but as you mentioned against Ohio State, against Michigan, Indiana really struggled to get it going.

Indiana is going to have very little success running the ball. Probably have a few plays here and there where it looks like they'll be able to run it, but not a lot of consistent success. By the way, Notre Dame, since I lost to Northern ILLINOI ten to zero, average margin of victory thirty point seven points. This is not going to be a blowout, though, Tim, I think the Irish skip by the Hoosiers survive in advance win this game by three, four, six, seven, like something like that. But I did take to seven and a half. Kurt Signetti is going to be a tough out.

Yeah, there's no doubt he is.

He's fired up as he should be to be and have this Indiana team in the College Football Playoff.

This is the.

First of the four first round games. This will be on the campus there of Notre Dame. We've seen a little uptick in over money. Interesting to note here from the betting split standpoint over at vison dot com. Fifty six percent of the bets coming in on Indiana plus the points. So pretty split action out there, not overwhelming one side or another when it comes to Notre Dame in Indiana.

So one best in the books. What you got.

I like your Mitchell Evans prop. I think it makes a lot of sense. It's very good research and critical thinking about that. On your part, I think you put out there on a Twitter poll which upset is most likely to happen in the first round of college football Playoff. What was the result of your Twitter pole?

So right now you could still vote on it at one Tim Murray for those of you watching with us live, twenty four percent of folks say that it will be Indiana number one, Tennessee forty four percent. Pretty overwhelming on Tennessee. We will get to Tennessee and Ohio State, but we're going to go.

In chronological order.

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We keep it rolling.

It is the Vson College Football Betting Podcast. To murray here at the d in downtown Las Vegas, joined as always by Matt Humans. Please rate, review, and subscribe. We'll have plenty of episodes coming your way. Because as great as this weekend is, in about ten days, folks, we get the Orange Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl, the Rose Bowl, and the Peach Bowl as quarterfinals in the college football playoffs.

So very much looking forward to all of that. Real quickly.

Just a couple of notes here for Notre Dame from an injury standpoint, Howard Cross who missed the last three games due to a high ankle sprain and is expected back and not expected to have a pitch count. That according to all of the coaching staff, that is a massive addition or welcome back. I should say for the Irish, the curiosity I have about Notre Dame and Jeremiah Love. They said he should be fine. He left the USC game with a bit of a knee injury. He was seen earlier this week with a sleeve on his leg, so we'll see. But I anticipate Jeremiah Love, who is maybe the best running back we've seen a Notre Dame in quite some time, him to be fully healthy.

So I'd say it a lot because Irish have some really talented running backs in the past thirty years.

Yeah, I mean Andre gestimate just a year ago was a record setting one. But just the explosiveness that we've seen from Love over the years.

Nominal athlete. You know, you and I were at the LA Coliseum a few weeks ago when he hurdled a defender on the sideline and that was one of the most impressive moves. I saw the entire season.

And when you slow it down and you watch it in super slow mo, it is pretty impressive to see Jeremiah Love anytime touchdown is minus two fifty, Riley Leonard anytime touchdown is minus one seventy five. I will say I think for Notre Dame it is important to get Curtis work uncomfortable.

If he's got.

Time to throw, he is very precise, seventy percent completion percentage, Matt one of the best, I think, number one in the country in passing efficiency. And then once again you go back to Indiana, number one in the country and stopping the run.

So I can't wait to watch this game.

The more I dug into it, the more I got excited about this matchup between these two teams in the State Championship of Indiana on Friday night.

Yeah it is. Yeah, Produce is not contending for that this year.

I think they lost of both of them.

Yeah, I think so. And they were both pop sided games. But you know, if you look at the Hoosiers box scores against Michigan and Ohio State, they were held under two hundred and fifty yards in each game. Yeah, and score twenty against Michigan fifteen against Indiana. That plays into how I think this is going to be a low scoring game with this Notre Dame defense potentially dominant.

I best bet from Matt He's going to take the seven and a half with the Hoosiers as well as the under fifty two. Right now, I will go over twenty seven and a half receiving yards from Mitchell Evans, which I believe that number out there at bet MGM. Just a reminder, you know, we've been talking about these games for two weeks. Make sure you are a Vsin Pro subscriber. Our picks have been thrown into our picks page vson dot com slash picks all throughout the week's leading up and you get access to that within the Picks email each and every day from Bill ad All right, let's go to noon Eastern. This game will be on T and T as well as streamed on Max. It'll be an ESPN crew, but it'll be on TNT number eleven, SMU number six in state. Looking at this number, mostly eight and a half's DraftKings has actually drifted up to nine here in favor of the Penn State and in the allons total around fifty three and a half fifty four.

This is in that sweet spot.

I know Chris the Bear Felika likes to tweet out those trends when James Franklin is a favorite of a touchdown or more and like in between seven to twenty one.

He thrives in this role.

Does James Franklin aka the Bully get a cover here against SMU?

I don't know. I wish I had the answer to that, because if I did, I would unload on the game right now, Tim and we would be rich By. It would be rich By Saturday afternoon. I wish I had the answer. I did play Penn State. I put him on a money line parlay, and that's all I've got going in this game right now, because I just I don't have a good feel for this one. I'd like to say that the Mustang's is going to be live here getting the points. And would you say the number is up to.

Nine at nine at DraftKings, Yeah, eight.

And a half most spots. And obviously SMU has been much more dynamic offensively since Kevin Jennings stepped down at quarterback. He's got twenty seven total touchdowns. He's a dual threat. Jennings took over for Preston Stone, who's kind of ineffective early in the year, and right I like RTT Lashley quite a bit. I think he's an innovative offensive coach who you know, could find ways to make the sense MEU offense potent enough to give Penn States d some problems here. But this kind of feels like a game where Penn State's just a little bit too talented. The home field's going to make a difference, and the Nintey Lions should be able to pull away. I think in the second half of this game, just when you watch the Penn State Oregon Big Ten Championship game, you saw the talent on display. Penn State's got plenty of talent him. There's no issues there. Nintey a Lions outgained Oregon five twenty three to four to sixty nine in the Big Ten championship game, put thirty seven points on the board, and Drew aller Is, a quarterback, didn't really turn the ball over much, though he did throw two picks in the Big Ten title game against the Ducks. When you got k Tron Allen and Nicholas Singleton two of the better running backs in the in the nation. I think you've always got the ability to grind down a defense and Allen and Singleton. Singleton combined for two hundred and twenty nine yards on twenty four carries on the ground against the Oregon d I think Penn State's probably going to be able to do something similar to SMU. Tim. We watched Clemson kind of go up and down the field against the SMU defense, and that's concerning because Penn State's certainly got I think a more explosive offense or a more consistent offense of what Clempson has shown this season. So I think Penn State to win the game. I feel comfortable with that. It's on a money line parlay. That's all I've done with this so far.

Yeah, interesting to know once again, our betting splits over at vison dot com pretty much split right down the middle, fifty two percent of bets on Penn State, forty eight percent on SMU. That courtesy of DraftKings on Thursday. Just a couple notes about Penn State. You know, it's funny because we joke on this podcast about Big Game James Franklin and his inability to win the big Game, and if they're to win a national championship, they're going to have to beat three top ten teams on their way to winning that national championship.

SMU not a top ten team.

I came away impressed in the Big Ten Championship by the performance that we saw from Penn State. Maybe not so much on the offense defensive side of the ball, but they utilize k Tron Allen, Nicholas Singleton, two really studeley running backs.

They incorporated them in the pass game.

They combined to catch seven balls in that and then you've got Tyler Warren, the Mackie Award winner best tight end of the country, even though you probably could argue that Harold Fannin from Bowling Green probably should have won that ward. But whatever, Tyler Warren, he's a guy they'll utilize. They'll give him the ball, they'll run it with him. They probably should have ran the ball with him at the goal line against Ohio State, but I was impressed. I think I would look at Penn State here a little bit against SMU. Ultimately, no bet for me on this one, and I would agree I would be surprised if we saw Penn State lose this game, outright.

I wouldn't be that surprised. Really, just look at the students who's standing on the sideline, James, you could never be that surprised if Penn State loses with that guy standing over there. Come on, now, I do think Penn State's gonna win the game. Minus three to ten is what I laid on the money line here on the money line, Parlay. But you're right, I think Penn State's got the ability here with these running backs to grind down the SMU defense. And it would be a big surprise if the Nindney Lions don't win this game at home. But then again, if it happens, you can't be stunned because it's James Franklin on the sideline and you brought up the Ohio State game and it's mind boggling incompetence.

Did you have a bet on that game?

Yes? I did, and I'm still ticked about it. Just when you think about it, it's just disgusting. It is, it's just so annoying.

Should we move on?

Okay, let's talk about a different game.

Brashad Smith, by the way, for SMU's is twelve hundred rushing yards this year. All right, hell might be freezing over because I saw today that Clemson went to the portal for someone of importance. Welcome William held the Helt, the edge rusher from Purdue. This is a nice addition for Clemson. Wow, this is we got a new era here for little old Clemson going to the portal. They're moving into the twenty first century.

But will help determinator. You know, it's funny when you're watching all these Purdue players transfer to Oregon, Texas, Clemson, all these sort of how the hell does team go one and eleven get beat by fifty points a game they.

Got outscored by Notre Dame in in Indiana by one hundred and thirty two to seven. All right, let's hit on this game before we touch a break here real quickly. Right now, Clemson a twelve point under dog at Texas, the biggest underdog of the weekend. Clemson a team that, let's be honest, pretty fortunate to be here because they lose Week one to Georgia that doesn't really affect anything. But they lose at home to Louisville, then they've got really no wiggle room. They lose to South Carolina in a non conference game, Matt.

But Miami gives them a gift.

They lose to Syracuse, blowing a three touchdown lead in the regular season finale, and Clemson all they had to do beat SMU.

They held on.

They kick a fifty six yard field goal as time expired. So we're going to hit a break here in just a moment. Fifty one and a half is the total. Twelve is the point spread, Texas laying twelve against Clemson. Here in this spot, we'll also hit on Tennessee and Ohio State on the other side of the break, as well as Ohio State still a seven and a half point favorite. We've seen some under money come in as that sits at forty six and a half.

So Clemson Texas.

This game will be at four o'clock Eastern on TNT. Ken Clemson and Little O' Clemson and Dabo get a surprising result down in Austin. We'll break that down as well as the nightcap on Saturday of Tennessee and Ohio State. Stick with us, It's the vs. In College Football Betting podcast. Hey folks, after the best bet recap stick around for a weather report. I welcome in, my good friend and meteorologists here in Las Vegas, justin Bruce as we run through the weather forecast in South Bend State College, Bozeman, Montana, as well as Columbus, Ohio. So a special about six seven minutes of extra weather for you at the back end of the podcast.

Stick around here on the pod.

This is Vson's college football betting podcast.

We gave been rolling.

It is the Vson College Football Betting Podcast. Thanks to all of you who have chimed in via YouTube. You can watch us live YouTube dot com, slash Vsinlive. You can watch us live over on x as well at VSIN Live, and we're going to continue to do some of these live shows here on social media after Christmas as we get you ready for the quarterfinals.

But we still have two.

More first round games to continue to break down and mention it. Before the break, You've got twelve seated at Clemson came in at number sixteen in the final poll at Texas four o'clock Eastern. This game also on TNT and MAX. And looking at this number, it is Clemson catching twelve with a total of fifty one and a half. Not an official play, but I am intrigued by Clemson in here taking the points and maybe I'll look like a dope at the end of the day. Brad Powers, who was on VSENT Primetime Wednesday night, he actually liked the favorite here in this role.

But Texas as a big favorite this year.

Just look at the number they have not been covering at these big numbers, and you know Dabo's been here before.

Is this team as talented as the.

One Matt that he had in twenty eighteen with one of the best defensive lines we've seen in recent memory. No, but I do trust in this defense. I like cade Klubnick. Maybe his numbers are a bit inflated because of the level of competition. I know he threw a big pick late in the South Carolina game. But I think Clemson's going to play up that big underdog role quite a bit, and I think they keep this thing competitive. So I'm gonna look at Clemson. Not gonna be an official play, but I think i'd be. I think I'm gonna take some dog here in Clemson plus the twelve.

Yeah, I don't blame it. You know, I'm not one to play double digit favorites. I'm not going to lay it with Texas here. I did play Texas on that money line parlay I was talking about with Penn State minus four forty four fifty about the best price you're going to get on Texas. I think it's right around that price here at CIRCA. So just to have some action on those two favorites, which I believe are going to win in advance. But I don't have stronger opinions on the side on Clemson Texas or really SMU Penn State. But I do think both favorites advance. I can't blame you for taking a big number here with Clemson. I do wonder Tim if you wait, let's say you wait until kickoff on a Saturday afternoon, would you be able to get thirteen with Clemson? You know, because the betting markets has loved the Longhorns really for the last couple of years. Seems like Texas gets met up consistently. You talked about Steve STARKISSI and not covering big numbers. Texas didn't cover a small number against Georgia in the SEC Championship. I think this Texas team has been overrated in the betting market most of the season, kind of like Ohio State. Now at the Clemson side here when people talk about Caid club and a quarterback for Clemson. They talk about him like he's Barney Fife or Gilligan or Tim Waltz, some sort of clemsy buffoon who can't get his act together. But if you look at his Klubnicks numbers, Tim actually pretty good. Thirty three hundred and three yards passing, thirty three touchdowns, five seven only five interceptions. He's got seven rushing touchdowns of four hundred and fifty eight yards on the ground. Those are actually outstanding numbers. Like you said, got to do it against the elite competition, can you do it against an elite defense like the Longhorns have? And that's where I begin to doubt a little bit what Klubnik's going to be able to do here. His numbers are outstanding for the season, actually, but what is he going to be able to do against his strong Texas defensive front. And you know when I say I doubt the Longhorns and think they're overrated in the betting market, to me, it has a lot more to do with quinn Ewers, a quarterback I don't really believe in, and Texas's ability to put a big number up on the board on offense against a with jet defense. And we saw how the Texas offense struggled against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Again, how Texas struggled on offense against Texas A. And m what's your take here? Do you think the Clemson defense can step up and keep the Tigers in the game, because that's going to be the difference here. I think Clemson's going to have trouble offense well be doing much against this Texas tea.

Yeah, And the more we talk about it, the more I'm kind of looking at the under here a little bit in this spot here. You know, I think back to the season opener Clemson in Georgia, and I know that feels like millions of years ago, but the opening half was six to nothing Georgia. I mean, it was an ugly first half from an offensive standpoint for Clemson, but I felt like the defense kept them in it until the dam ultimately broke, and that, I guess would be the worry here is can the defense play and keep this thing close enough long enough? And I mean, Matt, you look at the game they played against South Carolina Clemson, it was, you know, back and forth.

There were turnovers.

They did get eaten up a little bit by Lenora Sellers on the ground, So I guess I do think Clemson's defense can hold up long enough. You mentioned this about the SEC Championship and we ultimately didn't see arch Manning really do anything right. He took a snap between his legs on a fourth and one?

Crazy?

Do we see arch Manning? Do we see more of arch Manning in this game?

Should we?

Why didn't we see more of him against Georgia? See, I really don't believe in Sark either completely, Like a lot of people have blame faith and Sark being a offensive genius. How can you not use arch Manning more against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. It's baffling to me. And I know quinn Ewers put up a big number. If you look at the box score, threw for over three hundred yards. That looks great, But when you moved the ball between the twenties, But can you move the ball into the end zone when you get inside the twenty, when you get in the red zone. Texas couldn't do that against Georgia. That's where I think you got to put arch man on the field and use him to give the defense a different look because he's such a running threat. So we'll stark through that here against Clemson. I think you probably will, But to me, it comes down there, Tandy, Clemson offense, do enough tim to keep you within this number, because this Texas defense could be really tough to move the ball against. Here.

All right, let's go to Saturday night, the final game of the first round, eight pm Eastern time, ABC and ESPN, Number nine Tennessee at number eight Ohio State. We've seen the total tick down a little bit, down to forty six and a half. Spread has remained at seven and a half. Interesting nuggets that I'll get to here. Courtesy of Matt grill Over at DraftKings Sportsbook on VS in Primetime Wednesday night regarding this game, But Matt, you've got to play on this one. I've got to play on this one. I'll let you take the floor first. With Tennessee catching seven and a half here against Ohio State.

All right, so I've got seven and a half with the balls, and I'm a little concerned about this bet, to be honest, because this is going to go one of two ways. Ten you're gonna bet You're gonna bet Tennessee plus seven and a half, and the Tennessee defensive front is going to give Ohio State all sorts of trouble. Buck guys, with that beat up offensive line going to be ineffective running it will Howard's going to have problems if he's facing pressure in the pocket. You'll say, yep, you know Tennessee was a bad matchup for Ohio State, or it's going to go the other way where Tennessee is the most popular side in all four of the first round college football playoff games. Right every sportsbook is reporting a lopsided action on Tennessee plus seven and a half. But when you look at the betting market, those seven and a half's are not disappearing, and that tells you that the bookmakers are okay having a liability here on the buck guys. So I actually I'm conflicted on this game because the matchup tells me Tennessee is the right side plus seven and a half. All your betting instincts say, oh, this is a I don't want to say trap, but you know that's exactly what a lot of people call it with Ohio State lane seven and a half. I think what I'm going to do here to cover my butt a little bit on this with Tennessee plus seven others play Ohio State on a money line parlay two to play the buck guys to win the game. Hopefully they win but don't cover, and that would be the ideal situation.

If this gets to seven, I might be interested in laying it with Ohio State. It does feel like.

The see any seven. So I'm looking at the screen seven and a half all over, and every book is reporting lopsided action on Tennessee.

Matt Grill on Vson Primetimes echoed the sentiments of all bookmakers out there. They will be big Buckeye fans on Saturday night. That is crazy to think a big favorite at home and they're going to be big fans. But what did we see last We saw an Ohio State team as almost a three touchdown favorite, p down their leg against Michigan and instead of playing the Big Ten championship, they had to hear all of the hatred towards Ryan Day. Adam Burke has chimed in on that as well a little bit too here at Viisen. You know people are looking to get him out of there. But the way I bet this game I bet some under at forty seven. I know the forty sevens have been scooped up. I still would look under forty six and a half, but I've also pivoted to team total under for Tennessee. The person I trust the most in this game mat is Ohio State decordinator Jim Knowles. I think he's going to have a great game plan. I do not trust Nico IAmA layava on the road here. You look at his numbers in true road games, and I don't count Vanderbilt as a true road game. There were more volunteer fans in Nashville than there were Commodore fans down there. But you look at some of the true road environments this year and that certainly would concern me. Backing Tennessee here, So I'm looking maybe to lay the seven if we get there. But I've bet under the full total, and I've also bet under the team total here.

I think Ohio State wins this game.

I do not anticipate them, you know, being upset. This does feel like a little bit of a trendy dog three true road games at Oklahoma, at Arkansas, at Georgia. Tennessee lost two of those, and offensively really struggled on the road at Oklahoma, so I think this is a win for Ohio State. I have not bet the side, but I will bet the team total under. There are nineteen and a half's out there, so that's the best bet for me. Tennessee under the team total of nineteen and a half. More on this game, as well as some bowl games that we've got action on. We'll wrap up the Vsin College Football Betting podcast. On the other side of the break, alongside Matt Humans, I'm Tim Murray. Come on back.

It is VCIN, the sports betting Network.

This is Vson's college football betting podcast.

It is the Vson College Football Betting Podcast. Where I was about to say moments away feels like moments away from the college football playoff getting started. Alongside Matt Humans, I'm to Murray Tennessee and Ohio State. Looking over at vson dot Com and the betting splits you had alluded to it.

The most action on.

One side is Tennessee catching seven and a half, but we have not come off that number just yet. Right now on this Thursday, seventy three percent of bets on Tennessee.

That could be trouble.

So do we have the old proverbial ugly dog or dog with fleas, however you want to say.

You know, you also have to wonder are Ryan Day and Chip Kelly going to learn from their mistakes in the Michigan game. You know, We've talked about this on other Vson shows, but the way Ohio State this game plan against offensive game plan against Michigan was a fatal mistake, fell right into the trap that the Wolverine set chip Kelly called was it nineteen inside runs between the guards for a total of eighteen yards. Buckey's ran it twenty six times for seventy seven yards. That's pitiful three yards per carry, running right into the strength of the Michigan defense and of Will Howard threw two picks. So I don't have a lot of faith in Ohio State here. But you know, when you see betting percentages that are that lopsided in favor of the underdog, you don't want to be on a public dog. We've been doing this for a long time, yeah, and public dogs can be the death of you, right. So that's why I'm going to cover my buddy here. I think with a little bit with the Ohio State money line and here at circa a pretty good price minus two eighty five on Ohio State, and who knows that might drop a little bit by Saturday too.

I want to unplay you a clip real quickly because it will be cold.

And it's not like it's warm in Knoxville right now, but it will be chill tempts below freezing.

There.

Not expected to snow in Columbus on Saturday night. But Nico Iyama Liaba, the quarterback of Tennessee from Long Beach, California, a little bit warmer than Columbus, and this is what he had to say about playing in a game like we expect on Saturday night in these cold temperatures.

Yeah.

I played in the snow one time when I was in Chicago a couple of years ago with my seven H seven team, and that was probably the COLDUS I played in. But yeah, it was. It was pretty hard to play the snow it was. It wasn't too bad, but you know, it's just cold weather. And yeah, man, we'll be ready.

He did not. I don't know about you, but we'll be ready. I guess we'll be ready.

So we will see the elements there for college football. So a couple best bets we'll get to we'll recap here at the end of the segment. Let's run through a couple of bowl games and I'll hit on one on Friday. This one noon Eastern on ESPN. We've got the Cure Bowl. This one we played in Orlando, and we've got two conference champions going head to head, Ohio versus Jacksonville State. Both teams have lost their head coach, Tim Albn of Ohio, he's moved to Charlotte. Jacksonville State, of course, have lost which Rich Rodriguez to West Virginia. The difference would be this, Ohio has zero players in the portal and their interim head coach is now their full time head coach in Brian Smith. Jacksonville State's kind of a shoulder shrug. They've got some pieces in the portal. They're out to a five point favorite. So you mentioned, you know, you want a little action with SMU in the SMU Penn State game along with the Texas and Clemson game. So what I did was give me Ohio, put them on a money line parlay. I paired them with the Bobcats of Montana State. Baby gonna take it to Saturday. Stormy will be on that call three point thirty eastern on ABC shouts to Stormy be warm out there in Bozeman. So that'll be a little money line parlay. I think Ohio wins this game. I would lean they cover too, but you get the worst of the number here obviously was one and a half two. So I will take Ohio on the money line to beat Jacksonville State, who will be without rich Rodriguez, and I will pair them with Montana State on Saturday against South Dakota.

Tommy Malott the Bob Cat parlay. Yeah, let's go Bury over Ago in Montana State. I'm frankly, I'm stunned. I thought rich Rod was going to stay at Jacksonville State the rest of his career.

I sense a little sarcasm. The Hawaii Bowl our favorite bowl game Christmas Eve, eight o'clock Eastern, ESPN, Nick Nash, the should have been Belitannikoff winner is not going to play for San Jose State, but the Spartans are a three point favorite against the Bowls of USF. We've got a reunion of sorts as Kenny Montalolo and offensive coordinator Cruck Craig Stutsman back on the Island there to play in the Hawaii Bowl.

Yeah, and I actually laid three with san Jose, and I thought this was going to be a really good bet number. We got as high as what Tim four and a half for five and then now back down to three or three and a half. Nick Nash not going to play in the game. Tim Murray loves to break bad news to you. If if he's got your phone number, you might want to mute him on Saturdays or when something bad you see a Tim Murray tweet pop into your text, pop into your phone, you know it's going to be bad news. This guy delivers bet. Say text me two days ago, Nick Nash not going to play in the Hawaii Bowl. Thanks for the bad news, Nick Nash. One hundred and four receptions, sixteen touchdowns, arguably the best wide receiver in college football. Yes, that's a big hit for that San Jose bat Tim, especially when you look at the quarterback walker he get, who actually put up some big numbers late in the season. So I thought San Jose was going to be a great play here in the Hawaii Bow at minus three and now Nick Nash definitely have to downgrade that.

All right, let's go to the Holiday Bowl. I laid thirteen and a half. You and I don't like lay in numbers, but I couldn't help myself in this one. Good I gotten a better number, of course I could have. But let's run through what Washington State will be missing in this bowl game. As we found out that Jake Dickert, their coach, he is headed to Wake Forest. So this is a Washington State team that will have twenty plus players in the portal, including their quarterback John Mattier. They'll be without their head coach, their offensive coordinator, their defensive coordinator, their quarterbacks coach, and their running backs coach. Sarahcuse, from all accounts, pretty much will play one hundred percent full. Kyle McCord, as of now, is expected to play. Fran Brown said that we don't opt her out around here. There's a thirteen and a half at fan duel. I laid the thirteen and a half Sarahcuse in the Holiday Bowl against Washington State. This reminds me a little bit of the bowl game I covered last year, the Sun Bowl, when Oregon State's team basically was missing in action and Notre Dame absolutely obliterated.

The Beavers were there gimme cues.

You were there. In fact, I remember you dumping water cooler on top of Marcus Freeman's head.

After the game, they do frosted flakes. It's a Tony the Tiger Sunball.

Bowl, one of my favorite balls. And how about Serahan cues all the way up to a fourteen point favor of the most spots. Interesting story about Mattier, the quarterback from Washington State who's transferring to Oklahoma. Did you see this Baker Mayfield put in a call to Matier to convince him to go to Norman. That was after Bill Belichick had Tom Brady call Matier and trying to convince him to go to North Carolina. Yeah. So yes, he was a very wanted man as a quarterback in the transfer portal, and Oklahoma's going to get him. But Washington State's going to have a skeleton crew in this game.

Yeah, and we already saw one skeleton crew opt out of the bowl game.

That would be Marshall in the Independence Ball.

Speaking of UNC, Michael Lombardi, the GM now of those tar Heels.

They play Yukon in the Fenway Bowl.

I bet this game four and a half early on Yukon it's down to two to two and a half. Brad Powers like the under on the show on Wednesday vs. In Primetime. I could agree with that. I don't know, Amari and Hampton's not going to play. I don't love this bet as much as I did. I like the number that I got met, but a little Currie. Maybe these UNC players are going to be fired up to try to impress their new coach in Bill Belichick.

So I mean that sounds like a West Reynolds Sandy Capping angle, doctor Phil getting into it. Players gonna want to impress Bill bell I see what I see here as a big coaching mismatch. Danny Hurley is so much better than Hubert Davis.

All right, last one we'll hit before our best bets recap.

Let's go to the Citrus Bowl because Wyatt tom Check, our producer, sitting right here. Bama and Michigan. The number is kind of bouncing all over the place here. I took eleven and a half with Michigan. Matt, I am not convinced that Jalen Milroe is going to play in this game. I'm not convinced he's going to be an Alabama player next year. So I think this could be like late News coming. Michigan will have opt outs. But give you the points with Michigan here. If I lose the bet, I lose the bet. But there's clear motivational edge on Michigan side.

Well, there's some turbulence inside this Alabama program right now too, And I.

Want your money too.

I think there's going to be several opt outs. Like you said, Michigan's going to have its fair share of opt outs here too. Wyatt put me down for a best bet here. I'm actually going to play Michigan plus eleven. I was waiting for this number. It dropped a ten, ten and a half. I was waiting for it to get back to eleven. I like the Wolverines. I think they'll show up here, and who knows if Alabama's going to show up. Like you said, there's so many questions about motivation. Who's going to be on the field in these balls? But I think Michigan plus eleven is a worthwhile bet.

All right, we got about a minute left.

Let's get out of here with what we do a little best bets recap.

Best bets recap. All right, Matt laying on us, what do you got?

Well? Two and zero in the bowls so far. Tim with Memphis that was not easy. And how about UNLV first ball win for the Rebels in twenty four years? So all right, my best bets here Indiana plus seven and a half, Indiana, Notre Dame under the total now fifty two, Tennessee plus seven and a half, and we're going to go Oregon over a half win and the College Football Playoffs is Oregon to win a game at minus one thirty Ducks will play the winner of Ohio State Tennessee in the Rose Bowl. And Notre Dame to win the College Football Playoff ten to one. I think I've got twelve to one in my pocket. Also played San Jose a minus three. You got a bad number on BYU plus three ten. I really didn't think. Schador Sanders and Travis Hunter. We're going to play in the Alamo Bowl.

All right, I'll give you my recap as we bid. Farewell Ohio, Montana State, the Bobcat Parlay Notre Dame tight end Mitchell evans O.

This is Vison's college football betting podcast.

All right, let's get a little bonus segment here to the college Football Betting Podcast and the Talk of the college football world, just outside of the new playoff is.

Hey, it's gonna be cold. Could there be snow? I don't know.

All I do is I go to Aci Weathered. I don't think that's the proper way to find out the weather. Let's bring in a true meteorologist who happens to be my neighbor. He is a meteorologist from the ABC affiliate in Nevada KTNV.

He will if you're.

In Nevada, you'll be watching his station watch have these games on Friday and Saturday night. It is Justin, Bruce, my neighbor.

What's up, Justin?

How are you?

Brother?

Hey?

Tim, I'm great, Thanks so much for having me on. And yeah, it's kind of exciting to have such crummy weather in the forecast for these big, big games.

Now, I know you obviously live here in Vegas, so not too much crummy weather for us.

But there will be some chilli weather. So let's run it down.

Let's go Friday night, eight o'clock, eastern South Bend, Indiana.

Will we see snow? Will we see wind?

What are we looking like for Notre Dame, Indiana Friday night in South Bend?

Well, yes and yes to answer your question, although the bulk of the snow in South Bend is expected Thursday night through Friday. During the daytime, they'll probably have a couple two three inches on the ground that come kick off at twenty eight degrees with the north wind ten to twenty miles per hour, the windshill will be down in the teams. It's going to be cloudy, and there could be a few additional snow showers during the game, but the bulk of the moisture in South Bend is going to fall Thursday night through Friday.

So no real accumulation.

If we do see snow, it's maybe like flurries something like that.

Well, you know, anytime the game is at night and you get snowflakes, especially if they're kind of lake enhanced, they may look pretty impressive on television, especially in the bright lights of the stadium. But we're not expecting a big accumulation of any additional snow during the game. So yeah, to your point.

And then wind wise, you mentioned what are we looking like and I know things can change where recording this on Thursday morning.

For those wondering.

Wind wise, is it going to be sustained winds in like ten to fifteen.

Could we be looking more what are we looking like? Wind? There?

Yeah?

I think there's going to be a pretty steady supply of wind coming in from the north, which just sounds kind of miserable in real life there downwind of Lake Michigan. But steady at least ten to fifteen miles per hour, a few gusts of fifteen to twenty miles per hour. And if we do catch one of these rogue snow showers, that can sometimes generate a little bit of extra wind, so we'll have to watch for that. But yeah, definitely nothing they're not used to up there in northwest Indiana. But cold and kind of blustery and fairly miserable.

Well, enjoy west Reynolds.

Our colleague West Reynolds will be in attendance there, and he'll have to be bundled up in his IU gear. All right, let's go to Saturday, your alma mater, you're a penn State alum.

This game we'll kick off at.

Noon eastern Happy Valley State College, Pennsylvania. And this is really the one game where you think about a team from Dallas Fort Worth and SMU has to travel to Pennsylvania to play this game, So maybe a little bit of an advantage for Penn State in that regard. Weatherwise, in State College on Saturday afternoon, what are we looking like?

So it's going to be cold, and it's going to be windy. The temperature at kickoff mid twenties. The feels like our windshill value is going to be in the mid teams and that's because they'll have some steady northwest winds at fifteen miles per hour. There will be some gust at Beaver Stadium twenty five miles per hour off and on through the game. Now, the snow in State College about an inch during the daytime Friday into Friday night. There may be a couple additional snow showers Saturday morning, might have a few flakes toward game time, but kind of like Notre Dame, a lot of the snow, even though it's not a ton of snow, should fall before kickoff. But windy and awfully cold. I mean those feels like temperatures in the teams during the game, AI even middle of the day, a lot of clouds, Like I know I wouldn't be able to catch a football in that kind of weather.

Yeah, bundle up there in State College.

So once again to kind of reiterate, what are we looking like wind wise there for that one.

So gust of twenty five miles per hour from the northwest, and if memory serves, that's kind of a cross breeze in the stadium which is oriented north to south, so that may push the football around a little bit. Of the four games that we're talking about, wind is probably going to be the biggest issue for this Penn State game as well as the Notre Dame game. We discussed all.

Right, let's go Saturday night.

This will be on your network ABC there in Vegas KTNV. We got Ohio State, Tennessee. This will be at eight o'clock eastern kickoff. Buckeyes and volunteers. What is our weather forecast for Saturday night in Columbus.

So it's going to be awfully cold. We've got kickoff temperatures around twenty five to grease at the Horseshoe. It's going to feel like the teens during the whole game. We're not expecting as much of a breeze. North winds manageable five to ten miles per hour. The moisture from the system that's really impacting all of these games. The moisture is expected to fall as rain and snow during the daytime Friday, so should be dry and partly cloudy in Columbus Saturday night. But again just bitterly cold, and even a little light breeze is going to accentuate that bitter feeling.

So the coldest game will be Tennessee, Ohio State.

Yeah, kickoff temperature, there's twenty five. It is one degree colder than the forecast PSU kickoff temperature, and I guess three degrees colder than the Notre Dame Friday night kickoff temperature.

But all cold, Yeah, all cold, all right.

I wanted to throw one more in for my colleague Stormy bona Toni. She will be on the sidelines for South Dakota and Montana State. This game will be on ABC three point thirty Eastern. I believe one thirty Mountain time is when this game will kick off in Bozeman, Montana. How cold is my colleague Stormy Bonatoni going to be on the sidelines there for South Dakota and Montana State.

You know, ironically, Tim, that's actually going to deliver the best weather of these fourteens that we're talking about. That you'd think Montana in December, oh my, but Boseman has early afternoon kickoff temperatures around forty six degrees and they'll actually have a little bit of sun, partly cloudie, and light breeze from the south around five miles per hour. So weather up up in Montage time, weather up in Montana, excuse me, kind of a non issue, which is nice.

Wow, Stormy hear that. Congratulations. You know she was all worried about going up there. All the warmers. Justin Bruce, you could follow him on Twitter. It's his name, Justin b. R Uce, but replace the I with the number one. He's a meteorologist here in Las Vegas. He's a Penn State alum, and he's my buddy in the neighborhood here in Vegas. Justin appreciate the insight man.

Thank you very much for having me on Tim And I don't know if you have any connections, but my Nitney Lions we need a little help.

So fingers are crossed.

Yeah, there's a possibility fingers crossed that the Irish and the Niitney Allons could be playing each other. But a couple rounds to get through before we get there. That's Justin Bruce. Thanks to everyone for joining us here on the podcast. This has been the VS In College Football Betting podcast.

VSiN College Football Betting Podcast

Tim Murray hosts the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast. Tim and VSiN analysts Adam Burke and Mat 
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