Can Indiana Crash the CFP? Week 8 Recap & Week 9 Look Ahead | October 22nd, 2024

Published Oct 22, 2024, 6:01 PM

Tim Murray and Adam Burke jump right into the podcast discussing the injury news to Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke. When will he back? If Indiana finishes 11-1, will they make they make the CFP? 

With Notre Dame on their schedules, can Navy and/or Army knock off the Irish this year? Army & Navy are a combined 13-0 SU & 11-1-1 ATS.

Tim & Adam also examine a busy weekday schedule and mention a couple spots they will look to bet on Saturday.

Lastly, stick around to hear Jim Mora Jr's epic rant following UConn's loss to Wake Forest.

This is Vson's college Football Betting podcast. Welcome in another edition of the Vson College Football Betting Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Murray and as always, joined by Adam Burke here in the early week. Please continue to rate, review and subscribe. The numbers have been great. Let's keep it rolling. And I do have a little announcement. I think we're going to add another podcast. We're gonna get Wes Reynolds in the rotation, maybe Wednesdays with Wes situational spots. We'll have a little Wes Reynolds on here, short quick podcasts the plan on Wednesday, and maybe we'll keep these a little bit more brief as well, because Adam's a busy man. He's moving and shaking, kissing babies. You know, it's election season. Might he might be running for some sort of office. Adam always appreciated man. And you know this is the college Football Betting Podcast. But we do have some big stuff coming out regarding college hoops here shortly on vsin.

Yes, sir, First of all, I got to say before I promote the College Basketball Guy a little bit Harder, which comes out on Thursday. You guys are going to do numbers in the state of Indiana with your Wednesday's show, with all the Notre Dame and University of Indiana talk.

We're taking it down. We'll just focus solely on the Hoosier State Indiana and Notre Dame exclusively.

Speaking of running for office. You guys, you might be able to in the Hoosier State there next year for the next election cycle. Look, it kind of ties in right with the state of Indiana, where you know, hot bed of college basketball, high school basketball as well. That Our college basketball betting guide comes out on Thursday. A lot of heavy lifting from Greg Peterson, who of course makes sense. I mean, the guy does significant work on college bass basketball here at vsin dot com. We've got previews of every conference for you. Really insightful article from Aaron Moore. We're going through the editing process now looking at the travel for the ACC and the Big Ten specifically, which we know has been a thing for the college football season here as well. But that guide comes out on Thursday. We got team previews for ten of the conferences, the Big Ten conference overviews for every single conference, Wooden Award, Best Bets Futures, all kinds of good stuff comes out Thursday. Over at vson dot com. Only way to get it to become a VS and Pro subscriber. But there's some good offers right now over there, Tim Sports Equinox Special one twenty for six months, basically twenty bucks a month. And then we got some other things going on as well. So Vson dot com slash subscribe and while you're in the mood to subscribe, subscribe to our college football podcast here as well.

Dang November fourth basketball season getting underway.

Shit man, The NBA starts today.

NBA starts today. There's sixteen hockey games today. Our colleague store me Bona Toni, who I think is working twenty seven hours a day. She might have to replicate herself, duplicate herself. However, you want to what was that? What was that movie? Multiplicity? Wouldn't that that sounds right? Yeah, Michael Keaton wasn't he in that movie? I don't know? Michael Keaton sounds like you need a trivia night hosted SNL this past weekend.

I didn't know he was still alive before, being honest.

Yeah, I looked it up. I'm like, damn, dude, seventy three. Come on, you didn't see Beatle Juice beal Juice.

Oh is that the new one?

Yeah? The new one?

Yeah, I didn't know. My wife wants to see it. I'm I'm not.

You got enough going on, just man, I'm not a.

Big movie guy. By the way, speaking of movies, I might as well throw our buddy Brian Ortega plug. He wrote up a piece on his early prediction for the Best Picture Award winner at the Oscars. We are several months away from the Oscars. That article did traffic over at visa dot com, So case you're cher said that you can find that over there. There we go.

Mis Ortega Man, Ortega knows it all. Anytime I want to go to the movies, I just say, hey, Ortega, Shaul, I go to this movie. He's like, nah, I don't go that. I'm like, okay, Well, let's let's stick with the Indiana theme. When we could talk more about it with Wes tomorrow. But big news on the injury front. We talked a lot about injuries last week. We were certainly discussing the status of Haines King for Georgia Tech last week. What that would do. He ultimately does not play Notre Dame wins and covers and that number kind of just hung out there for most of the week at like around eleven, went down to ten, and then balloon back out the fourteen when he was officially ruled out on Friday. But unfortunate news for Indiana, it didn't affect them on Saturday, much to my chagrin, as I tried to catch the falling knife and go against Indiana. That did not work out well. Didn't work for me either, But Curtis rourke out and the latest from Pete Thamil is that he underwent surgery and they are hopeful that he'll be back, essentially sooner rather than later. This is what Pete Damil said. Curtis Urk underwent surgery on his right thumb on Monday, per ESPN sources that helped provide clarity on a potential return, including optimism that he could be back for Indiana's game against Michigan State. So great news there, I guess for Indiana they prefer him obviously not to be hurt. He will miss this game against Washington. You know when DraftKings put together, they're updated to make their miss. The college football playoff odds, Indiana was minus one twenty now it has since shifted with the injury to plus one twenty. But I mean, Indiana's undefeated. They don't really have a great win, but they are beating the living shit out of everybody. And apparently gambling's easy because you just need a bet on Navy Army in Indiana and you'd be really rich.

So I gotta say I'm really interested in seeing what happens this week for Indiana. I mean, Curtis Rourke has obviously played extremely well and won whatever quarterback competition they had there. But Tavan Jackson, who's the brother of Trace Jackson Davis, was pretty damn good basketball player for the Hoosiers. I mean, he was a four star kid coming out of high school. He's six ' five, he's a big boy to maybe run around a little bit with this offense, and he looked good. Now, maybe the black Shirts, you know, maybe Nebraska kind of the game was not going in their favor at all, we can say that, but Tavan Jackson looked really good, and so I'm kind of intrigued here to see how he ends up playing. And Justice Ellison ran all over Nebraska, so I don't know, do they even miss a beat this week without Rourke. I'm curious to see.

Right now, Indiana six and one, ats covering by sixteen point six points per game. That is the best cover margin in the country. Navy is fourteen point four, not too far behind BYU and Army are fourth and fifth respectively in cover margin. Look, they have left no doubt. And when you look at some of the metrics that I know the College Football Playoff Committee utilizes over at ESPN dot com. You know strength of record, game control, all of that. Indiana's eleventh and strength of record eleventh and FPI fourth in game control, but their strength of schedules one hundred and ninth, which when you look at all of these teams kind of clumped up there pretty high ATAM it is by far the worst. Only one really in the same ballpark would be Pittsburgh at one oh three. So I know that they haven't played anybody. And it's going to be a fascinating conversation. If Indiana goes eleven and one and loses only to Ohio State on the road, what does the committee decide to do with them? Because they would have zero wins over ranked teams, but they would have dominated everybody in their path. And you know, Michigan struggling as much as they have is less than ideal for the Hoosiers.

But yeah, that is.

Going to be a very very interesting discussion to have because you might be looking at a Power four team with an eleven to one record, they're only loss being to a top five team. And what does the committee decide to do with Indiana Because they've always told us, even though none of us believe it, you know, the preseason polls they don't mean anything for us. Well, if that's the case and it's a blank slate, Indiana is so fascinating to me. What the committee decides to do with them?

Well, you'd have to put four Big ten teams in, right, because if Penn State goes eleven and one and their loss is Ohio State, yeah they're in, right. I mean, you know, the expanded College Football Playoff was by and large an effort to put more Big ten and SEC teams in there. So if given the choice between Penn State and Indiana, with both of them having a loss to Ohio State, now maybe it depends on the margin of defeat, I don't know, but they're going to take Penn State over Indiana. So I that's the tough thing I think for the Hoosiers.

Now Penn State does to their credit, they have the win over Illinois, which aged a little bit better this past weekend. Is Illinois now six and one on the year, so they definitely have a better win on the.

Went on the road beat US. I mean, they beat Wisconsin this week. That's a good win because the Badgers are playing quite well right now.

Badgers are playing really well, and that's a that's a game that you know, I don't know what to do. I mean this week, I'll say this, and you know, it was a it was a frustrating week. Last week. I felt like situationally, there were a couple spots Ball State that you know, came home against Vandy in an ultimate sandwich spot for the commodores, but you know, giving out numbers at certain prices and then the market moves. I mean, Army closed seventeen, but I think will grade it on the podcast as a loss because I think it was sixteen and a half on Thursday. So that was frustrating. But yeah, this week is interesting. There's some interesting spots. I mean LSU again in a big time spot going on the road to Texas, A and M. But yeah, I mean, with these with the schedules the way that they are, and you look at teams like, you know, Georgia, who's going who went on the road to you know, Alabama, Texas still have a game against Ole, miss played Clemson. I mean, Georgia, their schedule has been an absolute monster. And then you look at a team like Indiana, a team like Missouri, who does play Alabama this week. You know, the committee will see the first rankings. I believe in two weeks. I'm very, very fascinated to see how their initial rankings are going to be.

Well, and I think something that'll be interesting as we kind of go forward here is, you know, especially when you talk about Indiana's college football playoff case, right, because again I do think Ohio State beats Penn State, even though it's in Happy Valley, the Buck I should win and it's one of the few games where Ryan Day maybe has a coaching advantage over James Franklin, so they should win that game. We should run back Oregon and Ohio State, you know, in the in the Big Ten championship game. But then it obviously comes down to what happens with the rest of the SEC. Right, You're going to lose an unbeaten team in conference this week because somebody has to win between LSU and Texas A and M. You know, Alabama's got their two losses already, which probably knocks them out at this point in time. I would say Tennessee, despite beating Alabama, has not really been very impressive at all this year. There's a decent chance somebody trips them up. Georgia obviously got themselves very much back into the discussion with that win over Texas's not that they were ever out of it, but now I mean, you know, the Bulldogs are sitting really pretty. But I think for a case like Indiana, for example, it kind of comes down to does everybody kind of beat everybody in the SEC the rest of the way, you know where you've got. Does Texas lose another game? Probably not, But you know the game at Kyle Field against Texas A and M. What if Texas A and M is really good? What if they beat LSU this week in a game where that line's now come down under three. You know, all of a sudden, that looks like a much more difficult game for Texas. You get all these I don't really want to call them bubble teams because that's kind of unfair. But all these teams in the SEC that still have to play each other. But at the same time, the SEC and the Committee has proven this. The SEC is the best conference in the country and there's no question about it. So if they can take a two loss SEC team over a one loss Indiana, they're going to do that, citing probably strength of schedule as you did. So I think it's going to be interesting going forward. Where a lot of people came out and said, well, the expanded playoff cheapens the regular season, I think it's the complete opposite because now you've got a bunch of teams that could find their way in, but they have to take care of their business in the regular season first. Even be part of the conversation.

Yeah, I mean, I think there's there's no doubt. And if the playoff hadn't expanded, and maybe as many of my Twitter followers have slash trollers have let me know, Notre Dame would have been eliminated with the loss in Northern Illinois. But now if they run the table, they're very much going to i think host a playoff game and they'll be in the top eight. I mean, you look at the landscape across college football. I think there's a real strong reality that there are zero undefeated Power four teams going into the College football Playoff. Oregon, I don't think we'll lose a regular season game, but I said it all offseason. I think Ohio State and Oregon will split in the regular season, and I think that'll still bear out here. You look at the SEC. Is there any undefeated team left in the SEC? I think they've all got one loss?

Right, Yeah, that sounds right, Yeah, I believe so, I can double check it right here. Yeah, everyone's lost already.

Yeah, so, I mean Texas and.

Not only that, TEA Texas A and M and LSU. One of them picks up a second loss this weekend as a top fifteen team.

Yeah, they both are, you know, both at home. There a couple interesting nuggets here, there are. This was courtesy of Brett McMurphy hashtag America's Insider. Do you know the two teams that have not trailed for one second this year in college football?

Are have not trailed for a second? Well, Liberty hasn't been down right?

Oh no, they were down. Remember they were down to East Carolina. They almost they almost right, well, Indiana, right, Indiana, Ding.

And America? Who else?

America Army?

Well, yeah, okay, that makes sense. Navy trailed in the.

Game, I believe, so not for very long. Memphis maybe maybe them, I'm trying to remember. Yeah, I think Memphis scored. Memphis scored on their opening drive. That's right, yep, because I had Navy in that game, like up here we go, and Navy did come back and win. There's only one team who has not led this season? Do you know who they are? They're in the max.

Why do I want to say Akron, but it's not. It's got to be Kent State.

And State never has never led, and they played well.

They're the only team in got a win. Right, Oh, Kanasas State.

I guess ah, yeah, our our battle of owls looks like Temple is going to emerge there with the host tower radio.

You know what, what the hell, let's talk about this game for a second. Liberty has been so thoroughly unimpressive that, like you look at this line and what is this number of Liberty is actually playing up to expectation thirty two, thirty three, maybe even higher. It's just sitting there at you know, twenty five. We're getting a little bit of Liberty interest now for Wednesday's game against Kennesaw State. But like this number is probably a touchdown or more lower than it would have been thinking ahead prior to the season, Oh no doubt.

And you know, Liberty during the offseason was minus two hundred to win CUSA. They haven't lost a game, and now they're like plus one twenty. So it just goes to show you what the market is saying about Liberty this year. Plus one twenty five at DraftKings to win that conference. It's funny. I've talked about it a couple of times. You know, we were putting together the portfolio this summer and I put a Liberty Chiefs win the AFC West moneyline parlay together or you know, futures parlay. The Chiefs I think are minus twenty five hundred or something outrageous to win the AFC West. But I still don't have good value on it because Liberty is now plus one two twenty five to win the damn Division or win the conference. So yeah, I mean, Western Kentucky looks pretty good. They look the part with those uniforms, and we will see how that crazy conference plays out. By the way, if you're listening to this on Tuesday, just a reminder, FIU is wearing the Miami Vice uniforms tonight, and it looks like, I would imagine, solely based off of the uniforms, they are getting money in the market. That number down to four and a half.

Is Pitt Bull gonna show up tonight?

He should? We need We need mister worldwide for that one. How about this nugget from our good friend Brad Powers. Did you see what the Oklahoma line was this week?

It's ugly? Twenty one twenty.

Oklahoma is a twenty and a half point underdog at on the road at Ole Miss. It is the biggest underdog Oklahoma has been since nineteen ninety seven.

So I know you've got a thing for ugly teams. I know that that's just.

Kind of your mo o my ugly dogs.

Yeah, I mean, I gotta say this, like, as pathetic as that offense is, and.

It's bad, Jackson Arnold back, now.

Yeah, Jackson Arnold's back. I mean, maybe that's a bit of an upgrade. This is still a team. It's top twenty five in yards per play, aout on defense, and I think their number Colin Wilson, friend of Feast and who works over at Action Network. I think he said there. I don't know if it was him or somebody else, but like, Oklahoma and South Carolina were number one and number two in terms of turning pressure into sacks, and obviously we saw South Carolina do it and their defensive line is incredible. But that's a big old number for Oklahoma to have a good defense.

Yeah, that's twenty and a half out there.

Maybe I want to live vicariously through you because I don't actually want to bet it, but I know I can convince you to do so.

I probably probably could by the end of the show.

By the way, I didn't know this old Miss is number three in the country yards per play aloud.

I heard we're just giving shout outs to everyone, but the Cover three podcast they do a thing called pole Assassin where they take a look at the ape.

I think I met her in Vegas one time, and.

Ole Miss sitting there at number eighteen at five and two, still ranked ahead of undefeated Pittsburgh and six and one Illinois. So not really sure why, but hey, give them credit, I guess.

For they are number three in the country and yards per play and number three in the country and yards per play on defense they are plus three point sixty two yards per play and they've lost two games. So it just gives you an idea of what they did in the games where they did dominate.

Well, I think a lot of teams would dominate Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, Georgia, Southern oh Man.

Hey, Georgia. So what a hell of a win over James Madison last week.

We might, I might ask Ryan to tack it on at the end, did you hear Jim Mora's rant? No, Oh my god, Jim Mora, not the dad, the son who is the head coach of Yukon lost his mind post game after Yukon lost to the two Wake Forest, he was calling out the reps. He said, it's acc reps were independent, That's why they're getting the call. There were f bombs. I mean, it was. It was epic. It was a great rant from Jim Mora Junior. I'm gonna I'm gonna try to tell Ryan to see if we can tack that on here. We're doing some live live notes there, all right, speaking of it, let's take a quick break. When we come back, we will take a look a little bit ahead at this upcoming week mention Adam's power ratings as well. It's the vs In College Football Betting podcast. This is Vson's college football betting podcast. All right, we're back. It is the Vson College Football Betting Podcast. I am your host, Tim Murray. Please rate, review and subscribe. Follow us on social media. I'm at one, Tim Murray. Adam is at skating Tripods. I've heard a lot of people mention that they believe that Army and or Navy will beat Notre Dame this year, and hey man, that's why they play the games. We'll see how it all plays out. I put up a old Twitter poll and I said, will Navy and or Navy beat Notre Dame? Seventeen percent said Army will beat him eighteen percent Navy twenty one percent said both of them will beat Notre Dame. Forty two percent neither will beat Notre Dame. You know these are two teams. And I know Dustin Sweetelson, who produces my Saturday show, the Saturday Tailgate Show that starts at ten am Eastern. Just a little friendly reminder there. He took a twenty to one shot on Army to make the College Football Playoff. Navy, I believe sits at fifteen to one. Now those numbers continue to come down. Last week it was twenty five to one and twenty to one.

What do you make?

And we've talked a lot about Army and Navy on this podcast. Army now six oho to one ats Navy's five and one ats Navy by the way six and oh to the over this year, I mean, these two teams have been absolute cash cows. However, it is worth noting that they have both played very poor schedules. Navy's better than Army for sure with a win over Memphis. But it's it's hard, and I know that you do power ratings over at vson dot com and update them every week. I know it's hard for some to truly figure out what to do with Army and Navy. They're covering at such a insane rate. But then the strength of schedule is really weak. And now this week Notre Dame plays Navy. Matt Grill at DraftKings Sportsbook told us last Wednesday and the look aheadline it was Notre Dame seventeen. It got as low as eleven eleven and a half. This week is now bumped up to twelve and a half thirteen. You know, what do you make of Army and Navy, adam from a power rating standpoint.

Well, I'll say this first off the top, I have Army three and a half points better than Navy in my power ratings. So for the Army Navy game, I'd have Army minus three and a half in that one. I have Notre Dame thirteen and a half point favorite this week against Navy. I am a ten point favorite against Army.

Both of those games, By the way, I have played.

On neutral sites, right, both of those on neutral sites. So I mean, first of all, the defensive talent level at Notre Dame, even with some of their injuries and some of their issues, still dramatically higher than basically any team in the AAC, Right, So that's part of it. Second, you wonder if, even though I do have Army power rated higher, you wonder if maybe Navy is a little bit more difficult of a matchup because of the more gimmicky nature of their offense with Drew chronic and the fact that they're running all kinds of different formations and all these kinds of things. Army's just lining it up and running it down people's throats and no one's stopping it. Navy. Navy has a little bit more variance to the offense.

I heard this stat I think on the Irish Illustrated podcast. I think Navy has run like forty five percent of their plays at a shotgun this year.

Yeah. And the ironic thing is Army went back to full under center this year after kind of deviating from that the last few years. So that's kind of an ironic and interesting thing there. Look, I mean notre name is the top twenty five run defense by yards per carry. They're twenty third, three point three. They'll only giving up three rushing touchdowns on the season, you know, I mean they this is a team that you know, even in their one game against the ranked opponent under four yards per carry allowed, they given up two and a half yards per carry here in their two games in the month of October. So this is a massive step up in class. And not only that, you know. The tough thing for these Army and Navy teams, for the Service academies is the defenses are almost always undersized right particularly at the line of scrimmage. So what helps for them is they have the ball for like thirty eight minutes a game. They just bleed the clock out of you, and they keep their defense from getting exposed. Well, Notre Dame should be the type of offense here to, you know, be able to take advantage from an efficiency standpoint, more so than other teams that just can't do a whole lot with the limited number of possessions. So there's no excuse for Notre Dame not to win this game. There's no excuse for Notre Dame not to win both of these games, if we're being completely honest. So Army and Navy are phenomenal stories. But yeah, and they haven't really, they haven't played a team anywhere near the talent of a Notre Dame. I mean shit, Army played all of the owls. They played fau Rice and Temple in three straight weeks. They're all bad teams. Fortunately they haven't played Kanessas State because that's a hide the wife and kids type of game.

Come on.

But East Carolina is the best offense they've faced so far, and EACU had twenty eight points in that game. You know, I'm really curious to see what happens to Army when they go to Denton and play North Texas on November ninth. Because North Texas can score, they're gonna give up fifty points. They may score fifty points too, So that's the thing. Like, these two are great stories right now, and Navy's win over Memphis as a solid one. All of their other wins are against garbage teams.

Yeah, when you look at right now strength of schedule, I think it's one thirty two and one thirty three for both of these.

And remember there are one hundred and thirty three FBS teams one hundred and thirty four, one hundred thirty four. Sorry Kannessa, remember Kansas State.

You know, in the Memphis win or yeah, win over Memphis, the Tigers had six hundred fifty nine yards of offense. Now they're an explosive offense. I've got a really good quarterback. I mean, I think the biggest thing Notre Dame has to do is avoid turnovers. If they can avoid turnovers, I would imagine they win this game. Notre Dame does have young linebackers. They've got injuries up front. They've got a couple edge rushers that are out for the year due to injury. They've got their top corner and Benjamin Morrison out for the year, and Navy has been able to throw the ball mean Blake Corvat, give him his flowers.

Man.

This dude has been an absolute stud this year for Navy. And when Navy has a good quarterback, history tells you they'll be a pretty good team.

Now.

Notre Dame the last time they played Navy when they were both ranked, it was in twenty nineteen and Notre Dame won that game fifty two to twenty. So Navy's not sneaking up on the Irish, that's for sure. And Brian Newberry, head coach of Navy, had this to say in his weekly press conference, you know, probably pumping up his team a little bit, and he said, quote, I think we've peaked yet. I don't think we've really come close to our ceiling. So he thinks that they're going to continue to get better. I believe he said that. You know, they don't. It doesn't take a miracle, it doesn't take anything superhuman to beat Notre Dame. And look, Notre Dame is lost in Navy a couple times in recent memory, so we will see it should be an interesting one. Nonetheless, I do kind of think say.

There were twenty one percent of people who said both Army and navy'll beat Notre Dame.

Yeah, how my Twitter pol you.

They're just haters, that's it.

I feel like I should have phrased it a little bit differently because, look, I've heard it, and I understand when you look at the way that Army and Navy are smashing teams, and you know, Notre Dame they have the Northern Illinois loss, they can't hide from it. I think there's many people who believe that this is a flawed Notre Dame team. I would agree there are definitely some flaws there. But the good thing for Notre Dame I think going into this game is that they will be one focused on Navy. There's no look ahead, there's no little brother scenario. They're ranked, they're undefeated, they're crushing teams. So I think they will be very focused to take care of business here. And they got they got to figure out this you know, hybrid wing tea, which is you know, credit to Brian Newberry for going out firing his offensive coordinator a year ago and bringing in Drew Chronic and both Navy and Army will will be in bowl games this year, so we know what we'll be doing in those bowl games. We will be betting on both of Army and Navy, because there's nothing better than backing a service academy in a bowl game.

I mean, I'm looking here through Sagarin because I like Sagarin. I think it's nice the way he has strength to schedule. I just like the way that his data is kind of displayed like it's pretty easy. Outside of Memphis, who is ranked fifty second in the nation according to Sagarin, I think the next highest ranked opponent combined between Army and Navy is East Carolina at one ten, who fired their coach, right, yeah, exactly, just fired their coach. Yeah. So look, I don't want to discredit hate what Army and Navy have done. I do not hate America, but look we got it.

Air Force hates money. Apparently they're winless against the spread.

It's terrible. We got to take a step back here with Army and Navy. I think I'm gonna say that and then somehow Navy is gonna find a way to win this game.

But you're gonna be I don't know if there are message boards out there for Navy football, but they're gonna be Adam Burke hater of Navy. According to ESPN Strength of Schedule, only team with an easier schedule to this point was Liberty, who also has a win over East Carolina.

It's true, That's very true. I yeah, I mean, it's a it's an awesome story, and you know, I mean there there are worse things than one of these teams finding a way into the playoff. But I think it's just gonna be one of those scenarios where we're going to bask in the glow of that Army Navy game at the end of the year.

Well, speaking of that situation and who will make it out of the group of five to into the college football Playoff, Boise State is the favorite, rightfully so, even money at DraftKings to make the college football Playoff Friday night here in Las Vegas. It's going to be a pretty exciting spot. I'm going to be at the game, fired up to go to it. You know, it won't be a sellout by any stretch of the imagination, but I would, I would envision and maybe JVT can let us know more. But this is the biggest game. I guess. They did host the Mountain West Championship last year. So I guess I can't say biggest game in UNLV history at Allegiant Stadium, but regular season for sure, and it is a Friday night game. What do your numbers say for Boise State and UNLV. And by the way, the UNLV game against Oregon State one of the wackiest finishes you'll see where Oregon State tries to spike the ball they have I think in an illegal formation and then the refs say, well, we didn't set the ball properly, so they still let them go with the play. UNLV does get the sack, they win thirty three to twenty five, and they get the cover. That was a good win for UNLV. That was a terrible spot on the road at Corvallis, and they got off to a slow start. They were down seventeen to three. They end up winning that game thirty three to twenty five. But the markets taking Boise State here, it's out the three and a half here on this Tuesday for that Friday night showdown against UNLV.

Mammoth game should be a hell of a lot of fun here. I like the over personally, I know sixty six is one hell of a number, but I mean you're on the fast track in a game that's going to have a tremendous atmosphere. I could see substantial points in this game with the playmakers just kind of doing their things. As far as the spread goes on this game, I have Boise State minus four, so I do tend to agree with the move off of three up to three and a half. And Tim, I'll say this going forward for Boise State thirty one point favorite against San Diego State, twenty two and a half against Nevada twenty two at San Jose State, twenty eight at air Force, nineteen at home against Oregon State. So nineteen or more point favorite in their remaining five games. So this is the one man. They win this one, they're running the table if they beat I presume UNLV again in the Mountain West Championship game. There's your group of five college football playoff team.

Ashton genty right now is the favorite at most sportsbooks to win the Heisman Trophy. Cam Ward is the same odds I believe at Van Duel and cam Ward is the favorite slightly at CIRCA. Yeah, I'm very curious about what we're going to see from Ashton genty. I mean, this is the game. As you alluded to, this is the one. Fresno State is not as good, maybe as we thought they were going to be. Air Force is an absolute disaster. Colorado State is not very good this year. This conference is bad. This conference is not good outside of UNLV and Boise State. And I'm glad that these two teams are playing each other. I hope that we get a rematch. Whoever wins this game on their home field in early December on a Friday night. That's what this conference should hope for, especially if they want a team to represent the G five, because if Boise State loses on Friday night, it gets really interesting about who could represent the G five. I mean, Liberty, They've been a disappointment, but they're still undefeated. But they have the easiest schedule in the country. We talked about Army and Navy. You know. Two Lane, I think is a team that is very much alive to potentially be the Group of five representative, even though their odds dropped this past week to around eight to one. This game is going to determine a lot for the G five. And I'll say this, if Boise State wins this game, and let's say wins it and can vincing fashion. Not only are you talking about Ashton Genty moving more into that driver's seat for the Heisman Trophy, but I think there's a scenario out there where Boise State isn't just the handed off number twelve seed. I think they could get higher into the ratings if they finished twelve to one, Adam, and their only loss would be buy three on the road at Oregon. I mean, Iowa State's still undefeated, so they controlled their destiny for a buye. But if Boise State wins this game on Friday night and then runs the table, it's going to be a really interesting discussion where Boise State ends up being ranked in those final rankings for the College Football Playoff.

Well, you didn't want to mention BYU being undefeated.

Dude, that team has got some sort of rabbits foot up, you know what I mean? Friday night against Oklahoma State, I had the Pokes plus the point, so I was happy.

Do they lose this week? Yes?

I think this is it. I think this is the spot. Look, you've got an undefeated top fifteen team only laying two on the road at what three and four UCF. You know you mentioned that I like stinky lines. That line is stinky all help.

Well that line tells a story, right, And then.

You look at the early and I know it's Tuesday and people aren't really betting until Friday, but like the early betting splits, like ninety percent of the action is going to be on BYU. And to kind of what you said about Army and Navy, look, BYU is an awesome story. Like they go out they beat Kansas Like, let's think about a Friday night, they go to Dallas as a double digit dog in an ugly ass game and they beat SMU, And at the time, it was more of man, what's wrong with SMU? Well, SMU has flipped the script, they've changed the quarterback, They've got one loss, so that looks like a phenomenal win for BYU. They blow out Kansas State in a wacky game on a Saturday night, but regardless, they get that win. They win thirty eight to nine. And then this past Friday night they somehow some way with what I mean, they were facing a fourth and seven with like a minute to go, and they got eight yards and then three plays later there in the end zone. It was a crazy finish in Provo, and you know, credit to Klonie Sataki. But yeah, I'll be on UCF this week for sure.

Yeah, no, I can't fault you for that. I mean, I don't think UCF is very good, but I don't either. But this is this is kind of one of those quintessential college football situations, especially you know, at the long trip down to Orlando, and you know, I mean, it's cooling off a little bit, but I'm sure it's still going to be humid and gross as it typically is down in Florida.

So let's look at their schedule real quickly. Left here at UCF bye week, the Holy War against Utah, Utah's falling apart. They play Kansas, who's playing a little bit better now. They get them at home at Arizona State, home to Houston.

I mean, you know what, I'm I'm gonna make kind of a bold call here. I think Kansas wins that game. Ooh, Kansas is figuring it out offensively.

Over under one and a half losses for BYU in the regular season, I.

Could see this being a two loss team, even Arizona State.

I think that Arizona State game would be a pain in the ass.

Houston will not. Houston will not.

Get them, hopefully not, because I could.

See them losing. I could see them losing two of those three road games or losing the Kansas game. Doesn't that feel like a Lancelife pulled win type of game? Like it just has that kind of feeling also, But that's what former byu OC Jeff Crimes coming back?

There you go.

And look, I mean Kansas is figuring it out offensively. I actually played the over in Kansas and Kansas State this week the Sunflower Showdown. Kansas is figuring it out on offense with grid they have like they struggled in their first few games, but Daniels has shaking off the RUSS. The defense is bad, but Daniels has shaking off the RUSS. They're at like seven yards per play in their last two games. They finally figured it out. Bit, I mean that Big twelve is going to be a mess the rest of the way.

Oh yeah, I mean, And look Iowa State. I mean the tricky part about betting UCF in this spot is where's their head at after blowing it against Iowa State? Right? Like, how do they bounce back after that one? But I think you get a better effort. kJ Jefferson has been benched, so I don't I don't think Adam I'm gonna cash one hundred and fifty to one ticket on kJ Jefferson to win the Heisman. Might be tough, might be a tough point, be tough. I want to I want to mention another thing I mentioned SMU and teams that are driving me crazy now. A lot of the time it has to do with what you bet. And during the preseason I bet Duke under two and a half ACC wins that is not going to come home because UNC blew a twenty zhering lead against Duke. And then on Friday night, I still don't know how Duke won that football game. I mean, they played Florida State, they had one hundred and eighty yards of offense and they won the game. Now they were plus four in the turnover margin. Duke is congrats to manny Ds. You're not a good football team. Do they get boat raced by SMU at home this weekend?

I'm kind of thinking that way. Yeah, I'm SMU man. You know what, I kind of my numbers love this team coming into the season, and.

I'll say this a lot of analytically computer driven betters like yourself, Colin Wilson, who we mentioned, you know, we Ford Gosh, why am I forgetting his name? A lot of these people who make their own ratings, they absolutely adored this team. Kelly Ford, sorry man, Kelly Ford, who makes his ratings at K four ratings. A lot of them love this this SMU team, and it looked like it was a disaster. Then they switched it out to Jennings and he's been tremendous.

Yeah, my numbers loved this team coming into the preseason from a win total standpoint. The problem that I had was, and I talked about this last week on the show. I think here maybe a couple of weeks ago, was they hadn't beaten Power four level teams. Yep, right, like they struggled in the annual rivalry against TCU the last year in the AAC they lost to Cincinnati, they lost to UCF. You know they also lost to BYU that year. You know, they just hadn't beaten Power five slash Pott and I now power four caliber teams. Now they're doing that, and I over adjusted that. I punished them for the Nevada game Nevada's way better than any of us thought, and I punished them for the BYU game. BYU is way better than any of us thought. And then I was way too slow to adjust as they wound up hanging one hundred and eight points on TCU in Florida State and then seventy four the next two road games against Louisville and Stanford. I was way too slow to react back to this team, so I made a big mistake with them. I've made quite a few mistakes this season in my power ratings. I don't know if it's just the landscape of college football, how dispersed the talent pool is. I'm not sure, but this SMU team is really, really good, and truth be told, I wish and I don't think it's gonna happen. I wish we could see them go head to head against Clemson in the ACC Championship game because I think that is a much more compelling game than Clemson against Miami, because I think Clemson beats Miami comfortably.

For being honest, So here's the scenario. We have bruin in the ACC. And once again, you know we've talked so much about chaos when it comes to Army and Navy and the fact that they played the Army Navy game after the college football playoff is announced. If you want chaos, I've got a scenario for you, folks. Clemson, Miami, and SMU all can go undefeated in conference play. Yep, SMU has Duke, Pitt, BC, Virginia, and Cal remaining. I believe they'll be a favorite in all of those games. Clemson, their schedule is a little more challenging Louisville, Virginia, Tech and Pitt and then Miami. He's got Florida State, Duke, Georgia, Tech, Wake, and Syracuse. Will it happen? Probably not, because it's college football. But is there a scenario where Clemson, Miami, and SMU are all eight and oh in the ACC? Certainly looks that way, and I don't know the tie breakers off the top of my head, but if you like chaos, there's a realistic shot that Clemson, Miami, and SMU are all eight and oh after conference.

Play in Miami's flirted with disaster. To put it generously, I mean a little bit here lately. But Hearren eleven and a half or higher point favorite for me in every game. The rest of the way.

So I'm not a conspiracy theorist. And I thought Van Pelt said it best on his podcast where he said, it's not a conspiracy, it's incompetence with referee. But three straight games Miami has been the benefactor of a call Virginia Tech the hail Mary has called a touchdown, it is overturned. Was it the right call? Probably? Should it have been overturned? Probably not. The Cow game, targeting on Mendoza doesn't get called, cal ends up punting the ball away. Miami wins that game. And then the Louisville Miami game, and yes, I had Louisville plus four and a half the scoop and score that gets overturned. It was the incorrect call, Adam, But I don't understand how that call gets overturned. And that's the thing here. And it's three straight weeks where Miami has been a benefactor of what I would deem as shoddy referee.

So it's really difficult, right, because there are so many college football games that you can't pay these people as full time officials, right, the NFL should probably figure out a way to do that. I mean, there's enough money in that billion dollar business to do that. So these people aren't like working on the car lot or working at the you know, at the hedge fund or something like that during the week and then moonlighting as officials on the weekend. You can't do it in college football. But to have it happen with the frequency that it has for Miami, it's very much a statistical outlier. So no, I don't think that there's any sort of conspiracy. But man, I mean, they gotten very fortunate, there's no question about that.

Yeah, But if you want chaos, there's a chance out there that Miami, Clemson, NSMU all go undefeated in conference play, all right, Adam.

Before I mean, there's a lot of chaos chances. I mean, not that it's playoff related per se, but like Western Michigan's the only undefeated team in the MAC right now, and they're not any good. By the way, I bet Akron this week. If we want to talk about betting on shitty teams, I bet on Acron this week. Just wanted to throw that out there before we get too far. Also, we're in a situation where Louisiana Monroe could make the Sun Belt Championship game, which is incredible. They have to beat rival Louisiana to do it and also not slip up anywhere else. But that could be a fun game on November thirtieth, depending on how things shake out. The other thing, I want to mention here a couple of other games that kind of stand out to me that I think we should We should discuss here for a couple of minutes. So I'm really really intrigued to see what happens with this Cincinnati and Colorado game because I feel like Cincinnati, I mean, the record is not super impressive or anything like that. They also haven't done anything wrong really at any point here this season. Colorado looks good in the big twelve. Men like this line's gone up with some respected money up to five five and a half. Now public piggybackers are going to come in on Schadur and Dion. This will go six six and a half in all likelihood, I think I kind of want to have the stones to take Cincinnati at the peak of this market.

I wouldn't blame you. You know, the betting market was all over Colorado last week at Arizona, and they were accurate on that one. So it's interesting.

The market hates Arizona. By the way, man, they're not wrong, No, they're not.

Arizona was a team that I think a lot of people anticipated with the Feita and McMillan returning to just hit the ground running. And they're now three and four, and I think, Adam one more loss and you cast the under on Arizona. I think it was eight. I want to say maybe eight and a half. I didn't bet Arizona.

They don't make a bowl game.

Have you got West Virginia at UCF, Houston at TCU, and then the Territorial Cup in the final game of the season. Yeah, they a win three of those.

Just beat Houston, which is which, by the way, is coaching malpractice? I think, Well, maybe Brent Brennan just isn't any good.

Well, and I'll give JBT wrote up the Big twelve and Matt humans has echoed it as well. Are we sure Brent Brennan's a good coach? Look, I've interviewed the guy a couple of times. I like him a lot. He seems like an awesome dude. And I just gave him a lot of benefit of the doubt because San Jose State is such a tricky job, because it's more of a commuter school, and you know, there's not really a fan base there. All of that, and you know, Coach Ken, I know that their schedule has been pretty soft to this point. I mean, Coach Ken and San Jose State with one of the biggest roster turnovers in the entire country, on the verge of clinching a bowl at five and two, and hopefully they get there, do the San Jose State Spartans. But yeah, I mean Brent Brennan. I gave him the benefit of the doubt. I didn't bet win total over or under on Arizona, but this is pretty eye opening how they've played so far this year and their best win is Utah and that doesn't look that great nowadays.

The other one I want to ask you about, similarly with the Spartans Michigan State in Michigan. Admittedly I don't know what to do with this game, but that's a good win for Sparti over Iowa last week.

Not good of you at Iowa over wins.

That's true, sorry, but coming off the buy with a very very good coach as we know in Jonathan Smith, right, I mean, dropping thirty two points on Iowa is pretty impressive. I mean, you know, and they had they had some short fields, but they also had some sustained touchdown drives in that game as well. Now they get Michigan, who I think the reality has really truly set in for Michigan the last couple of weeks. I know they were on the road. They'll be back in the big house here. The reality is really set in for them, and that USC loss is getting weaker by the week because Lincoln Riley just doesn't have what it takes in the big ten. I don't think does Sparty win this game this weekend, Like, I'm really intrigued about taking the points with them. My only I could envision a scenario in which they lose this game, like twenty seven to ten. But I'm intrigued with taking the points here where you know, the Boston College game they kind of they gave away, right they should be five and two with losses to Ohio State and Oregon, which there's no shame in losing and getting blown out by those two teams, No shame whatsoever. I think Sparti wins this weekend.

I'm not going to push back on it. I mean, what has Michigan done to make you feel confident in any of their abilities. My only worry would be, and I'm trying to think of the game that I that this was indicatis. I guess here's my question, because are you selling? Are you? You're selling Michigan at what feels like the all time low, and you're buying Michigan State at a relatively high price off the win over Iowa.

Yeah, I guess so. I mean I have it lined six, so I'm kind of in line with the market. I'm a point higher. But you know, my power ratings are not gospel to me. I try to get ahead of line movements early in the week and then as the week goes along, they matter less and less. But okay, let me just throw this out there. Michigan is four and three yep left on the schedule, Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State. Oh Man, they might make a bowl game, right if they lose this week? They are not making a bowl game? You know, Like, what is the last national champion to not even make a bowl the next year?

Well, TCU didn't win the title, but they lost. They they lost the title game and then didn't make a bowl game, right.

But to win it all? Yeah, and then not make a bowl, Like there's a very realistic possibility that. I mean, they're not going to lose to Northwestern, I don't think so. If they win this game this week, they're gonna go six and six and make a bowl. But they may be a national championship team at the next year. Does not even make a bowl game? Yeah, that means and then and then what do you do? Right if you're Michigan, what do you do? You know, Harbaughs sidestep because he he was gonna get the show cause and he knew it and all of that. Like people talk about the born on Third thing with Ryan Day, Shroan Moore really didn't do anything to deserve this job. He was just damage control because they weren't gonna pay somebody else to take it. With a little bit of uncertainty with their program future, Like what do you what do you do if you're Michigan? Do you have to go out there this offseason and just overpay or just you know, it's all right, buy a new head coach.

Can we start the rumors of less Miles? How many years do we hear about Less Miles going to Michigan?

Maybe they'll hire Ryan Day he's good at beating Ohio State.

Look, Michigan is not the easiest win total of the year, but and that that goes to Florida State. Anyone who bet under nine and a half wins at minus one ten. They started zero to three, so that was the easiest win ever. And then Indiana started six and oh and went over their win total. But Michigan going under, I think it was nine, hell even eight and a half. That's a that's an easy victory there for you. I know you haven't cashed it yet, but there were a couple out there that just seemed very obtainable. And I'm jealous of I know Matt Newmans has an under on Michigan. I'm jealous of that ticket as I'm sweating out a couple others. But you know, for me, Ucla did win this past weekend. But I still feel confident we're going to get a sixth loss there for Ucla and go under earth. I guess I need, yeah, I need a sixth loss. I think I have under five and a half wins, so our seventh loss.

But I gotta say, and the market's not always right, man, Were they right on that Ucla Rutgers game.

Sure were they really were that came in and you know, I know a lot of people are I imagine tantalized by Rutgers this weekend because USC and another loss another bet. We talked about that spot for USC and I didn't bet it. I know West did, and it came home Maryland winning outright against USC. I mean, that's been a absolute disaster of a season. But Rutgers, folks, not a team you really want to bet on. So I get that fourteen and a half is very tempting. And you know, I like ugly dogs. I can't get there with Rutgers. They are They're terrible right now.

They're bad, They're they're really bad. USC is pretty bad right now too.

How about the how about the double header on Fox Friday night Game one of the World Series Yankees Dodgers, and then you know, all Yankees fans probably went to Rutgers, so Rutgers USC to follow. You've got the La New York double header on Fox Friday night.

Well not only that, any Yankees fans that don't live in New York City are USC fans probably, so you know that's that definitely works out. We got a bomb ass doubleheader well, not really doubleheader, but Thursday nights. Two games are good. Like I said, Georgia Southern off that's surprising, went over James Madison. They look good with j. C. Fretchick quarterback. They're Syracuse. That's a game I might go to football this week.

Yeah, there's a couple of games in the week. I mean Boise State UNLV we hit on already, Louisville, Boston College. I'm tempted there to take Boston College. That is a really tricky spot for Louisville and Louisville. You know, I talk about you know, buying low, selling high. You're selling low on Louisville. But you know, how do they respond after losing that game and the fashion that they did against Miami? And I have got to go on the road to Chestnut Hill. Not that it's a daunting environment, but a Friday night there kind of one of those weird spots. And look, we've seen it. The dogs on Friday nights, I believe now are seventeen six and one ats on Friday nights. Dogs are the thing that worries me. How healthy is Thomas Castellanos always? I mean they were down twenty eight to nothing at halftime and that was a for like a runaway train for VATEC before they kind of let them back in the game with a couple of short touchdown drives in a third quarter. You know, it's really Boston College is kind of perplexing to me, right because, I mean Missouri was overrated coming into the season.

We've all found that out. Boston College maybe should have won that game. I could very well have started five and oh with that went over Florida State, who've all come to find is terrible. But yeah, and then Castellanos gets hurt and it like just kind of it felt like it derailed everything. So I don't know that I could take them this week, even though I get exactly where you're coming from with with Louisville and honestly a Louisville team that I didn't buy the hype coming into the season. I made a mistake taking them against SMU. You know, a few weeks back, I didn't think this team was as good as people are kind of hyping them up to be. And it's kind of played out that way. Yeah again, and maybe they should have beat Miami last week.

Right, you look at Louisville, I mean the offense is good, the defense is really bad, and I just I worry about, you know, where their heads are at for this for this spot going on the road. So certainly something that could hit the card be up on visa dot Com slash picks. I'm gonna dive into Syracuse Pit a little bit more because Pitt is well, they're very fortunate to be undefeated. They should have lost to Cal. A chip shot field goal goes you know, wide left, and that was an absolutely brutal spot for Cal, and they should have beaten Pitt in that particular spot. And then Cal loses the NC State. You know, Jayden not was.

Out another team I can't figure out at n ST. Yeah, I do the ACC. I just especially the middle, the middle and bottom of the ACC. I just like I expected North Carolina to be so much better than they are. They got to get rid of mac Brown. They have to.

Oh yeah, we've had two fire coaches this week, Mike Houston East Carolina and Will Hall from Southern Miss both out.

That Syracuse Pitt game really intrigues me because I mean, Kyle McCord's thrown for over three bills in every single game this season. Like their offense is very very good. But Pitt, we know historically very good at getting after the quarterback, so that game is really intriguing. I mean, I wrote it up over at Vison dot com, so you can go and check out my preview. I write up all the weeknight games actually, but that's that's a hell of a Thursday night game. And again, and just to plug this because old Big East rivalry here with Syracuse and Pitt. College Basketball Betting Guide comes out Thursday.

I think that's the perfect way to put a bow on this. Hopefully I'm going to put Wyatt and Ryan on the spot here. You will be hearing from Jim Mora Junior to close out this podcast and his epic rant versus the ACC referees. And if you are thinking of the next opportunity that Yukon plays an ACC team, that would be Syrah Houston November twenty third. So I don't imagine they'll be getting many calls on November twenty third when they go up to the Carrier Dome or whatever the hell we're calling the Carrier Dome these days. Adam always appreciate it, sir, I know you're busy. The guide comes out and College Basketball Guide later this week. Vson dot Com makes youre to check it out. We'll be back tomorrow with a special Wednesday with Wes for podcast. I am Tim Murray. This has been the VS In College Football Betting podcast.

I'm proud of them for fighting back. We've got to make sure that we put ourselves in a position where it doesn't come down to one play where an ACC team makes a strop call against an Independent and that's up to us to play better at the start of the game so it doesn't come down to that call, which was holding an PI and that's what I told them, and we'll come back and we'll fight. So it's on us to play better earlier. But it should be nice if it was a level playing field ACC versus Independent. There's your explanation.

It's pretty simple, all right.

Thanks everyone,

VSiN College Football Betting Podcast

Tim Murray hosts the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast. Tim and VSiN analysts Adam Burke and Mat 
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