The Lombardi Line | September 1st, 2024 | Hour 1

Published Sep 1, 2024, 4:13 PM

On The Lombardi Line, hosts Ben Wilson and Mike Palm recap the Saturday college football slate and look ahead to Sunday's action. Plus, Beau Rivage Sportsbook Director Carl Johnson joins the show.

This is the Lombardy Line on beson the Sports Betting Network.

Welcome in everybody, fresh edition of the Lombardi Line from downtown Las Vegas, our circa sports book studio, kicking off the month of September. I'm Ben Wilson. He's Mike Paum and Mike with the start of our new lineup tomorrow, Swan Song, our final Lombardi Line. It is truly the end of an ara here. We're gonna have a lot of fun today paying homage to what the show has been.

Well, it's a very historic final final episode, and so I'm excited that in forty five minutes we'll have one of the stall warts yogs yeah, of the Lombardi Line throughout the years, especially the last few years, Carl Johnson, Jiggity Jackety. He'll be joining us to talk a little LSU as well as recapping yesterday and looking forward where the sharp money's coming in on both Week two in college football and Week one in the NFL.

Can't wait to have him on coming up this hour forty five minutes, and then we'll also start up and things forward to the new lineup starts tomorrow. The vs In Morning Line. If you missed it yesterday with Grace Remington, who will be one of the three along with Michael Lombardi. We also will have Harrison Sanford coming up eleven thirty Eastern talking about some best bets for the Slake.

Get a preview forward to.

NFL Week one and we've got a lot to talk about, though, Mike, from yesterday, you think about how many games if you were just chasing the steam yesterday, Oddsari, you had a pretty rough go of it on the first big, big time Saturday of the college football season. Of the two ranked games in the FBS, now without a doubt, if you kind of compare all four teams, yet probably have to say my most impressive performance the way Notre Dame goes on the road, can't take advantage and did not have calls go their way after two first f interceptions of a M's quarterback Connor Wegman to pull away the way they did far and away from me, the most impressive high profile performance.

Of Week one.

You feel Notre Dame was better than Georgia.

I'm saying if.

You're comparing, just I want to you're talking about those two games with ranked teams.

I thought Clemson was so inept in every way that it was only a matter of time.

I thought the Clemson defense was anept. They held Georgia to six points in.

The first half.

At a certain point.

If if you're Clemson defensively and your offense is on the field for like ninety seconds at a time, and you were it's a war of a trition.

I'm not sure that you were that folks, you were dreaming in the next three hours with Jared.

Smith, I want to share that game.

I thought. I thought both those defenses are very buttoned up.

There's no mistackling in that game, right, you got to get guys in space. But Clemson offensively looked still very pedestrian. I was very impressed with Notre Dame because I thought they had multiple chances to quit. And I don't mean quit trying, but just things were not going their way. They looked like they should have been ahead in that game, the fourth and one that they review it. I mean Riley Leonard's entire body was across the line. Bill Lemanie says, would no matter where the ball is, it made a first down, quick review, and now if the call stands. I thought their secondary looked great and they had the poise down the stretch. They made the place, and so their schedule. I mean they're going to be a touchdown favorite and ever game except maybe at the end against USC, and who knows what USC is going to look like. But if you if you bet Notre Dame to make the playoff, you have to love your ticket right now.

Like that shout option, it's going to be really good.

Oh when that gets reposted, likely tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest.

I mean you got to think. Yeah, the Notre Dame number, like what they got.

To Notre Dame's fans got to say, bring on whoever they think, Bring on liberty, Bring on Boise. We're hosting a five to twelve game, right, I mean.

Break god. I can't wait to see a side at Notre Dame Stadium.

Bring we we love the Flames, Like, let's go, let's get the Flames to South Bend operations.

We want liberty. Yeah, have a liberty or give a stack.

I think that would be a great sign to see to see there in South bet. I thought the big.

Takeaway from Notre Dame more more than anything, was twofold. The physicality on defensive line. You know how they're not like a you know, a flashy unit, but they're old. You know, they've got a lot of experience. I mean the way they wore down A and M. And granted Connor Wegman did not live up to the building of a guy who had a top five QBR and limited sample size last year. It did not go well for him. But it was not only the Notre Dame physicality defensively, but you think about the much of aligned offensive line and after Charles Jagasaw was lost for the season with injury, no upperclassmen starters, yet they average six yards to carry on the ground and they had They were great at getting the ball in space. Riley Leonard, coming off multiple offseason acle injury or surgeries, you know, wasn't the greatest passing wise, but he was mobile enough to continue what we know of him in the scouting report on him, which is he's a multi dimensional quarterback.

He is about what you thought he would be. I thought right.

He can at least moved good with his legs, competent. They did not turn the ball over. Kyle Field one of the toughest places to play in all of college football, and the running game, they just kept pounding away and had the two big runs that that were the touchdowns. So I give them, I give them full marks. And now they move forward.

They'll need to get better.

They'll need to get better offensively if they're going to be able to compete in the playoff and and and make some way at least into a semi final game. You think the way they're set up, they can't they can't get a bye because they don't have a confident but they can be the five and play the group of five teams.

So you're talking about not getting into the final eight.

But I think they've got to make a strideforward to think that they're gonna to make the final four.

At the very least. The preseason win total you feel very very good about.

I mean, this was the swing game in Notre Dame, which it was a flat ten or so just over to the ten side on that over you get there the other ranked game of yesterday. In more than anything, it's just Clemson's decision to not use the transfer portal whatsoever and just rely on Dabo's recruiting grant. Look, it's Georgia right that you talk about how buttoned up they look. No mistackles. It's as fundamentally sound of a defense as you'll see, but you got to do something more than three points when you've got you've got Garrett Riley coming back for a second year. You've talked so much about the new weapons you're utilizing for k clubnicket quarterback, and it just didn't happen three and a half yards of play basically that whole game. And as much as Clemson's defense is going to keep them in a lot of games, and certainly, like probably the ACC has taken as big of a dip as any conference this week from a perception standpoint outside of Miami. I mean, really that's in Georgia Tech.

To me, the headline from yesterday is I mean Chrysto Ball has the ACC right in front of him. That's what it feels like, right, I mean, Miami's got a real good shot to go undefeated here. I was very impressed with Cambell. They dominated both lines of scrimmage. You could hear a pin drop in the swamp. That was a very very impressive performance for the Heistman campaign and those who are holding cam Ward tickets like Joe Soraalo. I mean, he puts up, he puts up three eighty five, they roll up five hundred and twenty nine yards ten to one of offense fourth favorite caboard and old Billy Napi, you're still trying to run the ball on third and five.

So yeah, over under a week seven and a half, Old Billy gets the gets the boots. I mean, that's now the talking point for Florida. In a game that they had to have hard to strike to schedule the country, you come out roughing the passer to extended drive out the first series gives Miami touchdown. Another roughing the passer later on. I mean, just mistakes all over the place, Like how Florida was that undisciplined in a game that mattered so much for the toughest schedule of the country.

You just you're left shaking your head.

And oh, by the way, Graham Mertz goes out at the end of the third quarter as well. Not that I mean, I know you're not gonna say, tye all hopes of Graham mertens.

But he was better than a lot of people who gave him credit for last year, and you figured, with some improvements around him, would be better.

Did not work that way. Is Florida gets blasted.

As we look at the Heisman odds right now, on my top three disappointing list is the guy who's they could have lost that game easily if Idaho isn't off sides on fourth and seven with six minutes to go, right, they stopped them. They're getting the ball back down seventeen fourteen? Are you kidding me? Oregon biggest disappointment? Maybe they're the biggest disappointment of this week. I mean, you could make argument, you could say Florida, you could not really Clumson.

Yeah, I think that.

I think that I would say Oregon was the biggest disappointment. Virginia Tech obviously got shocked at Vandy as an almost two touchdown favorite, but for Oregon not to crush And when you look at the underlying statistics in the Oregon game, they out possessed them two to one, forty to twenty. They outgained them two and a half to one, and this is a one score game until the final minutes against Idaho at Outson Stadium. I think that's a problem for Dylan Gabriel. So as we said that the Heisman race is wide open, but.

It is some takeaways the.

Only redeeming quality for Gabriel.

You know a lot of people didn't watch that game was late last night, and they're going to look at the box score and go, oh, Gabriel's forty one to forty nine for three eighty and two scores. But you know a lot of you know, there's a lot of short throws Oregon. The lack of explosives was really jarring for a team that was the ginormous favorite of almost fifty points at a lot of books. Orgon only wins twenty four to fourteen. And that was sort of a theme mic because we got into the late hours yesterday of so many whether it was FBS versus FCS teams that struggled to cover giant numbers or even you know, you had the power fives and say the group of five teams, Ucla gets very fortunate in a you know, in a line that just continued to crater all summer, and against the Hawaii team that looked terrible week zero. Yet I mean, how Ucla was, how ugly was that You're watching it on both sides, You're like, what is Usile gonna do this year? I know the win total has been smashed under but man.

As bad as US was in the first half, Hawaii might have been worse to that.

I know it was.

It was.

It was a battle of an aptitude across the board there and again that got down to it got down to thirteen and a half and a lot of people were on Hawaii all summer from eighteen. Did not work out that way, as UCLA is able to survive. I you know, they think about the rest of the of the top twenty five and then some of the some of the games of you know that had we felt like a lot of hype surrounding teams. Maybe they weren't ranked yet, but we should at least mention the VA Tech piece of this mic because we're talking ACC how rough it was, and we've got one more ACC game tomorrow on Labor Day. But for VA Tech, you know the way that the way that Vandy blew that game in regulation with the like anytime you can set up to kick a forty three yard field goal with a college kicker, usually you can penalize. But where did you stand on the overtime? Most of these coaches, you win the toss, you defer, you know what you have to do. I mean Davontec's defense was was gassed. They gave up two length of field drives. The final five minutes. They defer, which I realized by the book is what you do. But Vandy scores in three plays and it was obvious the Hokies had nothing left. It was it was a very interesting, weirdly coach game by Brent Pry.

I thought, yeah, I agree with you there. You could have gave.

You could have gave your defense at least another five minutes on the sidelines to catch their breath. I would say give Clark Lee a lot of credit, right, absolutely not. Not only does he bring Pavia, but he brings his coaching staff. I mean he brings Jerry kill On, he brings Tim Beck.

To b oc So.

I mean Nashville they got something to They got something to cheer about here, maybe a little optimism for the first time a decade or more.

Well, the whole talking point was like, you know, betting out in Mexico State was awesome in the Conference.

USA, but this is this is the SEC you're playing. You know, legit acc t.

T so kyon drones, the one hundred and one highsman tickets, you can he can rip those up, and he got banged up late. He wasn't in overtime either. As as votech goes down there, how about.

One hundred to one on Austin gent How about how about those numbers he put up.

Yesterday Boise State.

Each team almost covered the total on their own Boise States defense. You might have some concern there because each team was way over forty. But either way, great to have college football back. I know we had some good wins. We had some agonizing beats, but we're underway.

That's all.

The MATP West Virginia wasn't an agonizing beat.

Well, well they if they don't mishandle the end of the half, maybe it's a different story.

But who knows the two hour range the way, what.

Are you gonna do?

We have much more to talk about, including games today one in Vegas.

LSU USC will start our.

Sunday and then Monday previews next on the Lombardi Line.

This is the Lombardy Line on Vson the Sports Betting Network.

A couple of games left to your week.

One of the college football excited to break those down a little bit later this hour with Carl Johnson. Jick Jack joins us from the beau Ravage. A lot of LSU fans in the Vegas Mic.

I mean we had it ended up with twenty seven hundred RSVPs for the LSU party Friday United Stadium swim and they said we got close to seventeen hundred Tiger fans up there.

Wow.

They were making side bets with everyone that they could drink all the alcohol that we had. They have no idea how much alcohol we have on side on property. They were going to try to drink it out. So we cleaned up there on the side bets. But there were a lot of LSU people still around yesterday. As I predicted to you, I had to tiptoe through the rain drops here and just keep moving booths to the people who haven't showed up yet. By eleven o'clock though I had, I was up in Derek, Sex right everybody had arrived.

We were in a poncho or so you didn't have some protective clothing for all the beverages flying around. We made a great quote from Bill Ady and our BC Morning newsletter today. You should check that out. You're not already subscribed from our lone LSU alum with the network. Matt Brown when asked how many of these people do you know? And he's like about half of them, just you know, seems like everybody, everybody from LSU. They traveled as one. So that's the big game today, and you can you can reminder check your inbox.

I wait, I waited till ten after three and I didn't see it, so I gave up on it.

I believe it would go back and look three twelve.

Three twelve, I thought I was three thirteen am.

We're already slipping with three point zeros.

So yeah, people are waiting baited breadth at six am on the East coast for the news letter.

You know, to wait till six thirteen. Nobody wants to do that.

Alas the big game today, all those LSU fans saw a lot of them here yesterday ready to go for a game that despite all the anticipation and all the fans from LSU coming out to Vegas, a lot of money coming in on USC and you wonder how much lower will this get? A line that was near a touchdown throughout most of the summer, it is seen steady trickling of action toward the Trojans. LSU used Allegiance Stadium today in Vegas ore down to four pretty much everywhere Mark, and you wonder, now, with the limits wide open, does this go even lower for a LSU team. It feels like the market sentiment is more betting against LSU and the lack of confidence in this new look defense that until it has proven to be better. I understand why a lot of people have their doubts on LSU and the ability to stop the ball.

It's interesting LSHU has lost their last six regular season neutral site games, so there hasn't been Obviously, both teams are replacing quarterbacks here, so that's a big bug. I don't know who do you Who do you trust more as a quarterback guru? Is it Lincoln Riley or Brian Kelly?

I would trust Riley in a situation.

I would trust Brian Kelly.

I think he's a I think he's a really good offensive coach and he's a really good developer of quarterbacks. Obviously, he made the move to LSU because he thought he could recruit or the school would recruit a higher level of talent that could bring him a national title that he could just couldn't quite get to it.

Notre Dame.

Obviously they've been way behind them the defense side of the ball. To try to make that realization come true. Enter into evidence the Mississippi game last year. There is but I kind of I don't really like to lay points in this game. But I'm not sold on USC and Lincoln Riley and the whole philosophy there. I think this is an allegian stadium. One thing I miss judge the leeds At Stadium is what a tremendous venue.

It is for college football.

It's absolutely amazing. The Pac twelve championship game was amazing, the Notre Dame BYU game, how loud it got in there. It's just with that kind there's a different enthusiasm in a college football crowd than there is in a pro football crowd, especially when it's a transplant team like the Raiders. So I think the crowd will be a factor in this game. For LSU, I did not play the game. If you said you had to play the game, I'd probably lean over a little bit here.

The issue is, I mean, we're out the sixty six, this opened sixty two and a half. It's been nothing but nothing but over money. Yeah, and I am wanted to lay fourth LSU at this point as much as it's reduced because I don't trust the defense to get stops. And there is a case we made that for Lincoln Riley. You bring in a quarterback in Miller Moss who has been in the system a couple of years. There was so much freelancing done by Kayleb. Williams is outstanding of an athlete as he was, that there is something to be said for letting Riley's system actually run the day instead of Williams just kind of creating whatever he wanted to out of system, and that Miller Moss will actually be a very very good fit, even more so than Williams, despite not having the type of athletic ceiling than Williams did a season to go. It's just both defenses. I don't have the.

Trust in at all to get stops.

You could argue us couldn't be any worse than last year, but as a result of that, the only way I'd look is over. And the issue is we've seen this tax so highly that you're paying a big premium. Maybe you see a slower start mic you can jump in game. We saw it happen with a couple games yesterday where it's the first games for these teams, there's a little a little bit shaky out of the gates. Then you start to see the offenses open up. But that's all I would really want to look at.

You know, there were several games yesterday you could have wait till late first quarter or into first quarter and then hit the endgame under which came crashing down in these games. If you were watching across the board, that Georgia game got down to thirty three and a half. The Iowa game was twenty six and a half at the.

Start of the second quarter. I get the history there.

The Penn State game got down to thirty four and a half, and all those games pretty easily went over that adjusted number because of the slow starts. And it was week one and there were a lot of motion penalties, the illegal formation penalties, teams struggling to get coordinated there in their first game in live action.

So that's an interesting thought.

I don't know if you'll be able to take advantage of it as much, but the movement. Think about this Georgia game. I mean, if you said you're taking one fourth of the total loft because it was a scoreless first quarter, it would still be thirty six and a half, thirty three and a half thirty.

It got down to thirty two.

And a half for a couple snaps, So I mean that's a pretty drastic You're moving more than the implied total in that and obviously you know the second and fourth quarters are going to be higher scoring than the first and third.

So I just saw it was an overcred. I didn't get involved.

And there are a number of games where even even the thought was right, even if it didn't you know, actually.

Play out truly to cache a ticket like.

I you know, worsepeed for me yesterday was heading game over in the Texas Colorado State game. That thing, that thing closed like sixty two and a half. I got over fifty two and a half when it's seven to nothing late first quarter, Texas scores fifty two. I felt pretty good about the bet. The issue is Colorado State that gets gets shut out. So not a great look for the Rams. Fifty two. Nothing there, And we're going to talk about Texas in a few minutes because as we look ahead to week two, I mean talk about a team that looks really really buttoned up in Texas, you know, granted against a mid tier Mountain West team. That is a big game they'll have now on the road.

I was shocked they shut them out.

I was, yeah, I mean, Colorado State's got weapons. I mean Tory Horton's still there at wide receiver, and I mean they neutered that offense to a point, even in garbage time, even with the backups. And I just couldn't believe fifty two nothing there yesterday for Texas. Will we see a similar thing play? Yeah, slow start for LSU USC or the defense is good enough to give us that. Could we see a total dip down into the low fifties and go in game over?

I would love to see it. Will it actually happen that way?

I'm unlikely.

Unlikely. As far as Labor Day we do.

That'll be the last game here for this week one card, and it's at least situation where an ACC team has to win, Mike, that's at least a positive with how bad it's been. Boston College takes on Florida State. Knowles after the double digit, outright favorite loss in Ireland to Georgia Tech, market is steaming against them. This was as high as twenty two in some places, and it's moved nearly a full touchdown, We're down to sixteen and a half at DK rest of the market painted seventeens across the board with some under money coming in. That not a surprise, right Mike, on either move. It's just a question mark of do we feel like the move is justified? And is it when so many moves from weeks zero to week one were actually proved to be true. Look at Nevada for example against Troy. Is it worth continuing to follow these moves when we saw how poor Florida State was relative to the expectations last week?

I have to get another game under my belt because they were shockingly flat take away the first drive.

The first drive, they went right down the field.

After that, they were dominated in this game, and defensively, I was really disappointed in their D line. I know they have a lot of new parts, but I mean Georgia Tech control clock. They were able to just and without an explosive passing game, move the ball down the field, convert third downs, stay ahead of the chains. So that was the most disappointing part to me. The ground game and the lack of ability to stop the ground game. So I will not be involved in this game on Monday, I have to see how far this Florida State team has really fallen before I dip my toe. And speaking of speaking of teams, we were impressed with yesterday the two Nevada schools. I mean what you and are down eight at the half in a hostile environment and the humidity coming off blowing that game to SMU and they came out and really dominated the second half of the game, had to stop the two point conversion to hang on to win. And then you and LV just dismantled Houston and Willie Fritz in the first game. They controlled the line of scrimmage. I mean they scored a garbage time touchdown or they shut out Houston at home in that game. So oh yeah, hi, Hope's here. They've for you know Oedim and what he's done. I mean, obviously some great tail wins for you and l be heading into Mountain West play as well.

Yeah, UNLB wins outright three and a half point dog there in the Nevata I felt I felt fortune. It was one of those things. I'm fortunate I did not make the bet because I kept waiting for Troy. If that got down to seven, I was ready. Well it got down to seven and a half, never got down to seven. Troy opened fifteen and a half. That's what we're talking about. Some of these week zero to week one a huge potential overreactions, But in this case, Nevada, who was got an eight point line move in their favor and then wins the game outright, it was completely justified with what they did on the road in a really impressive spot. As far as you know, is this overreaction on the Florida State side. I think I'm with you. I mean, we you know, it's easy to sit there and take what Mike Norvel as a head coach at at face value. You know I didn't have him ready to play. There was a disaster all the way around, and feel like they are worthy of being three score favorite against BC. But when you're talking lower total game in college football and this is forty nine and a half fifty taking some under money, I'm not looking to lay a premium like that with a team coming back from an overseas trip where it got embarrassed. There's just no way. As much as it's a night game at the Dokee, I'm just not going to do it. And we also don't know what to what to expect Bill O'Brien making his debut as BC head coach. A lot of question marks on both sides, so we passed for me.

Did you get involved in that Georgia Tech game yesterday? Did you have a Yeah?

I had Georgia State plus twenty one that dropped two point conversion and then they didn't score at the one yard line.

I'm sorry. I really didn't know. If I know, and I wouldn't ask.

That's it.

We we had winners, we losers yesterday. Weekquad will break down where some of the early line movement is going for week two because we have some big moves already in college football.

We'll talk about it next.

This is the Lombardi Line on VSON, the Sports Betting Network.

But weekquad almost in the books in the college football season, but not too early to start looking ahead week two here on the Lombardi Line, because we've got a number of massive marquee matchups to talk about and we've already seen some live movement. Mike Major books are moving things fast based on what we saw in week one, and one of the big ones for next week Texas goes to the Big House, Huge Big ten showdown, to top ten teams. But with how good Texas looked fifty two to nothing over Colorado State. I thought the defense looked way better than I was anticipating. Let's not forget it's not like Colorado State's some doormat in the Mountain West. I mean, They've got like legitimate threats at wide receiver spot with Tory Horton, you know, veteran quarterback Braden Fowler, Nickelosi. And they couldn't move the ball. I mean it was three play the whole day. They had no chance in that game. And the market is reacting after Michigan. You know, ho home thirty to ten win did not cover against Stefresno States game stays under. That was a very popular bet for many in the mid forties. But Texas out to five and a half point favorites at the Big House. That was three and a half Mike most shops throughout the summer in the Game of the yearlines.

I mean, I'm not sure this number is done moving.

I don't think so.

I know, so if you got Texas in the look, you're in a really nice spot. You may get a middle between three and a half and six and a half or six but that you couldn't have been more impressive.

I mean, Michigan was with.

I talked about this, twenty one was a bridge too far and they don't care about covering. And look, they lost twenty players off that roster that had played three years or more for them. So I really you know, people talk about they're the fourth team or the third team in the Big Ten.

I don't know.

I think it's a long road for them to hope for Michigan to get back to a playoff. Penn State was impressive yesterday. Right, Maybe maybe Organ's the one that shouldn't be up there in that high of a rating. But anyhow, Texas, you can't say enough about their performance yesterday. Efficient offensively, I liked the look of the passing game. It was creative, and the defense was absolutely stifling against what I would say is the top three or four offense in that conference. Granted it's not a Power four conference, but it's not a conference that's known for pedestrian offense. I really thought Colorado State had a legitimate shot to make the Mountain West title game. I like the way their schedule fell and they had the experience of head coaching quarterback both coming back, which is a rarity there, but they were dismantled. It'll be a great atmosphere for this game. I give Texas credit. They scheduled these games, right, they don't shy away. They scheduled Alabama when it was in a conference. Remember they had the home and home of Ohio State what six seven, eight years ago. So they go, they go and take on these teams.

So but I think it'll be a showcase game for Texas.

Yeah, sec big ten marquee game to start start the week.

And yeah Michigan that you know.

The the bigger thing that they could surprise a lot of people was that Davis Warren gets announced the starter right before the game. It was not Alex Orgy who did get to play late in the game, and Warren again against the Fresno State team. Their coaching of Tedford steps down over the summer last second for health reasons and a lot of transition there. I mean Warren goes fifteen to twenty five, a buck eighteen, a touchdown, a pick, a lot, a lot to be desired there for a Michigan team. You just wonder how that offense is going to translate against the Texas defenses. We just talked about flew, you know, flew on flew all over the place on both sides of the ball. I have doubts on war to say the least five and a half now is that spread? I'm with you, I could see this easily getting to six. As more markets start to open. We will see that happen later today and as limits gets.

Raised, well, and we'll open our numbers.

Obviously we did have the first one for the for week one, but we'll open all numbers, including the non marquee matchups, the non look aheads at eleven eleven am today and we'll have the folks flying in like Paul Stone to get first crack at those numbers.

All right, two pms. Looking looking forward to it. On that a couple other games. It will be interesting to see where the where the line moves go here. Iowa State Iowa. I'd argue, you know, both teams for stretches. Iowa State only scores with twenty one against North Dakota and FCS game did not look very impressive on offense twenty one to three, and then Iowa was what twelve nothing? People were you're you're the mayor. You can talk more about this, but everybody was ready to give up on the i where it was on fire forty to nothing. Iowa does beat an FCS in Illinois State. They shut out the Redbirds cover the total themselves, just got down to thirty six and a half. Our cee in Iowa here two and a half in the Syhawk game next week. A lot of a lot to be decided on both front.

So this is one of the in our look ahead games, one of the heavier bet games, this week two matchup which.

Has playoff implications. Seriously.

I mean, both of these teams are probably fringe teams, but when you're talking about Iowa and can a fifth Big ten or fourth Big ten team get in and then the ultra competitive Big twelve, I think a little downgrade.

There with the Texas Tech performance.

They legitimately should have lost that game at home last night, but this has been a steady stream of Iowa state money heading into this game. I wonder after the Week one performances, do we start to see some buyback on Iowa we opened I believe we opened this game in the look Ahead Games of the year at three and a half and it was bet down to two and a half we'll see where it goes.

I did the one good thing I did in.

College football yesterday was bet the second half under in the eye I was State North Dakotare you Go, which was about as easy as you could and the drives were all six seven minutes. I mean, the key thing is when the team like North Dakota gets the ball that they can take time off the clock, that it's not three and out, and they shortened it with possessions. Iowa State had the one touchdown drive was a nine minute drive. North Dakota had that crazy spin around punt that made that drive so long.

So it was it all fell that way, but it did not turn it over.

I look at Ken the Dog and those games chew time off the clock.

That's really the key for my total betting.

In the case, you know, I bet second half under in the Penn State West Virginia game. In the case of that, you're like, all right, Neil Brown, just keep keep doing what you're doing.

We're gonna we're gonna be good on that front.

The circa properties and this includes uh, you know Midwestern states that are licensed. You offered the Iowa scoring prop this year, which you can know aad pace sign because.

Plus fifteen, uh we offered would the average twenty five points a game in the regular season. So that's no bowl game and no and no if they make a big ten championship game, it's just their regular slated games, which remember that they had the game was Nevada was in there. It was a long delay, lightning and all that, and everybody was wondering, well, because if they don't play all the games, if that game would have not counted, that would have been a refund for everyone, which we would hate to do.

At six to nothing at half time, you get's an FCS team at home, you're if you better.

Awful on the third down in the first half, they looked just well or red birds, you know, after they went fourth and two from like the opponent's forty five. Parents would have never done never. Of course they stopped short, but like, you can't do that, you can't be out of character.

Farents had to be thrown a remote from the recliner, I mean wherever. I don't know where he was watching.

He was probably interviewing an nephew or something.

Probably like come on, you gotta give no safety. It's you. That's the staple of Iowa football. What are we doing punt to get a safety? Other look aheadlines here for week two that we expect to start seeing some movement because in one other marquee matchup that we'll have on a neutral, we'll get Tennessee and NC State, and NC State couldn't have looked any worse thirty two and a half point favorite. I'm a little worried about my over eight and a half win positioned, Mike. I'll be honest, Western Carolina was not expecting the catamounts to give to give NC State that you know, that's a good of a game, but they were tying the fourth quarter. NC State ultimately wins, doesn't cover. Tennessee just blows out ut Chattanooga and Nicolio Malaiava in his true regular season debut, could not have looked better for the balls yesterday as they put up a massive number sixty sixty burger on Chattanooga and shut out the Mocks in the process. Seeing Tennessee laying six and a half in that one, Mike, and you gotta think that'll wall.

What's his heismanods right now?

Iamaliava is it's it's shortened since yesterday as you would expect, and I'm seeing him down to twelve to one at DK the big big movers Iamaliyava and Cam Moore down to ten to one.

I think that's interesting. I think that's worth a shot. You're gonna get a good run. That kids is very very very impressive to me.

And Betett before this NC State game because if he has another terrific game like that on the road, you won't get ten to one on.

Him after that. So this would be this would be the.

Point obviously with the point before yesterday, but this would be the point to buy in on it.

I would I would think so too.

It's NC State was you know, you think about against West again Western Carolina and they put up I mean they you know, they put up well over three hundred and fifty yards of total offense on NC State. That was a game NC State had to win the fourth quarter of twenty one nothing to pull away win by win by seventeen. That line is at six and a half and then the other one that we're excited to look ahead to see where the lines go here.

We'll get some updated odds as well on this.

But we had a highly anticipated debut Dylan Royola for Nebraska a bit of a slow start against UTEP, but after going down early, Nebraska rolls in that game against the Miners at home. Rayela solid in his debut as a five star freshman coming in. Meanwhile, Colorado escapes their first game against an FCS in North Dakota State. Not close to covering though, and you know where will we go from here? As it was obvious there were so many holes on that Colorado team.

What's the number on this game? Ben I was looking for it.

We don't Nebraska up to seven and a half at what was what was the look ahead? Remember it was seven most of the summer, there were some seven and halfs with mostly.

Some revenge spot were humiliated in that game in Boulder, and they had all those fans there too, right, they had like a third of the stadium was red and that was part of the whole don story. TCU then Nebraska, I think he's a huge revenge spot. They're going to have ninety thousand whatever how many of her they get, not quite as many as a volleyball game, but they do.

They do. They do turn out for football too.

They do.

They every once in a while they show up for for football games as well. Yeah, you know, when it when it suits them, it makes a lot of sense.

That's the third biggest city in Nebraska on Saturdays.

Yeah.

Well, look, I think Colorado in a lot of ways after Week one was kind of who we thought they were. They've got some unbelievable athleticism at the quarterback position and you know and elsewhere, but there's just no consistency on that team up and down the roster.

Will Matt Rule take Nebraska to a Big Ten title game in the next three years? No, okay, but will he ever? I think he'll turn the program, but on he'll be there, I don't know, But.

He can turn the program around and have Nebraska competing in high level bowl games without going to a Big Ten.

I Meani Palini was I mean Polini was respectable, right, but since then it's been just got awful. Yeah, not great for Nebraska, but at the bottom, I mean at the bottom of the Big Ten West.

Think about that for the last three years.

Husk respect thought a big opportunity for the Huskers against Colorado. Next week, we'll go to our guy, Carl Jack Johnson from the Bouleravaje up next to he helps us break down how the books are made out and want to look ahead to in the LSU USC game when we come back.

This is the Lombardi Line on Vson, the sports betting network.

Rolling on on this first day of September, recapping everything we just saw in Week one of college football. A couple more big games still to come as we're back from downtown Las Vegas, our circus sports but studio and a true pleasure here right now, I'm Michael to welcome in n og member of the show. It is our final Lombardi Line. Michael will be on the new show, The Vson Morning Line, which starts tomorrow seven to ten am Eastern Time. Chris Remington Harrison, Sanford Harrison going to join us in our second hour of the show. And a guy who has been an integral part of all Lombardi lines over the last several years, Jick Jack Carl Johnson from the Bouleravage sportsbook director there down in the great in the golf It joins us right now. Great to have him back. I know you were looking forward to this, Michael.

Carl.

Carl became one of the characters, the characters that really exploded out of the Lombardi line cast and all credit to him. But you know, back in the days when you could tweet out who your guests were going to be and at what time. I mean people tuned in, that was appointment television to see Jick Jacks.

So welcome back, Carl.

Hey, it's good to be back. It's good to be with you guys.

Man.

Look, I'll tell you a quick story.

You know, I can remember a few years ago when I don't know who I was on the call with, but our PR people said, hey, Carl, you got to jump on this call. We want to do some stuff with the Lombardi line. So I get on this call. Uh, I don't know, I don't know. I think Bill ad was on there, and you know, a bunch of guys from Vson on the other end, and I'll never forget. They were kind of going through what they wanted us to try to do on the show and stuff like that, telling us, uh, asking us if we could do this and that, and I'll never forget they and I don't know who it was that asked me, but they said, how do you feel about that?

Curl?

And I said about three words, and one of the guys on the other end said.

That's it. That that that's the voice that we want right there.

So you know, I think it was my slang, uh you know, my Southern English if you call it.

Uh.

But I think that uh, that helped us get to.

To be on this show.

It's it's been an honor, uh and we look forward to doing a bunch of other stuff too. So we've had a great time and it's definitely changed, uh some of the stuff. You know, I got people coming up to the counter. I'm getting fifty d ms every couple of days. I mean, it's been crazy, but it's been a lot of fun.

Were so and we're so glad it has worked out that way. And how how the borvoge has really taken off. I mean, I remember, you know when we started doing the show, these shows, Mike and I've been on Barty since twenty twenty one.

And yeah, how how.

Great of an atmosphere and a presence that there is down down in Blocksieall, I'm sure it's a little bit out of you. It's weird for you, Carl, all the LSU fans. I mean, it was just in waves here at Vegas this week, and it might be a little bit later at the at the book this week. And what have you guys seen out in your neck of the woods the way the LSU usc line movement is gone.

Yeah, so you know this, Look, it was good to have the book full again for the last couple of days. You know, Look, these people down here live and die for LSU football. And now you know you can add a couple of other teams in their old miss but for the time being talking about LSU, I know Jimmy Odd had contacted me yesterday.

There's he told me.

He said, man, there's twenty thousand fans over here at Mike Palm's swim book. And I said, well, that's about right. I said, are they doing any crawfish? But look, this is gonna be uh. The the opener for the season is Brian Kelly's third season at LSU. You know, they lose, They lose Jay Daniels, they lose Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas.

Uh. You know.

The biggest drawback about LSU, I think coming into the season is gonna be how improved their defense is. If this is any kind of a defensive performance for LSU, I think they got a good chance to win if they don't play a decent defense. I think Lincoln and them can can put a herd on them. LSU hasn't done well the last three years, I think in their openers. I don't personally like going and playing the school like USC on opening weekend.

I would I would much rather.

Play a smaller opponent, but should be exciting this line and basically for US, Uh, it's been fairly stale. Uh. I mean we open this thing at at four and a half. We're still right at four and a half.

Now.

The thing about this is that you know, people always ask me. I mean, it doesn't matter who the opponent is, what the line is, We're gonna always run about eighty percent of the handle in about eighty five percent of the ticket count on LSU. So without any guests at all, I know that I need USC today for the for the book.

Carl. If this game was in Baton Rouge last night, what would the number be?

Uh?

If it was in Baton Rouge, I would think this game would be somewhere around seven and a half eight.

Uh, And bet the same, Mike.

I'm telling you that this atmosphere, the llegiance will be as close to as you can get to Baton Rouge on a Saturday night. It's gonna be eighty percent plus LSU fans. Now, USC has access, more access than they would get if it was in Tiger Stadium. But look, Jimmy Out was only exaggerating a little. They were close to two thousand LSU people at stadium swim.

We have a.

USC pregame party here on the second floor at the overhang bar. We got about two hundred RSVPs. I mean, it's just the town is engulfed with with LSU. And you're right, they haven't won an opener since pre COVID twenty nineteen is the last time they won. And over I give them credit though, they go and play tough schools. They go and play in room, they play Wisconsin at at at Lambeau, and they go and play these games and make them better at the end of the year. But if they can, they can escape through here. I'm looking so forward to Saturday, October twelve, when Ohio State goes to Oregon and Mississippi comes the Baton Ruge.

That's going to be the best day of the college football season.

Absolutely one hundred percent. And speaking or no, well, first of all those LSU people at the College World Series loves them. They travel extremely well. And you know, I was not surprised to hear how many people are in that stadium. It's not a surprise. But look, you're right, that is going to be one of the best days of the year. This ole miss team, I'm telling you, they are special. Very impressed with them. I kind of knew it was coming. And this kid looked Jackson Dart. I mean, he's one of the kids. He went from well just since yesterday went from twelve to one for the Heisman to ten to one, so I think he had I don't know, three or four touchdowns. But they're going to be the team to beat, and they have the schedule to really make a run in this SEC right now.

You can get them at like.

Seven to one to win the conference in fifteen, sixteen to one to win the whole thing.

They're a favorite now here at CIRCA to make the playoff. When we open the market, they were around plus one fifteen. Now they're minus one thirty. Want the biggest mover to make the playoffs them in Utah. Carl, we love your sharp report. Give us a sharp report on Week one action in the NFL next Sunday.

Yeah, so I do have I've got a few teams, a few totals. Uh, it looks like we've taken some sharp money. We took some sharp money on the Falcons total when it was at forty two. It's down now, down to forty and a half. On the Bengals total, we also took some sharp money from forty two and a half. It's at forty and a half now. And then the Bears total, they're playing the over there they hit. They popped the over at forty three and it's at forty five and a half. Uh, they are playing. We got some sharp money on the on on Atlanta for the game. The Texans are really they really have a lot of steam. I mean, normally this is a Dallas Cowboys kind of you know, they they kind of bet the Dallas.

Cowboys like they do LSU here.

But Texans, the Texans are taking that that handle this year away from Dallas, I think. And then lastly, you know, the only significant thing speaking of Dallas is that the sharp's here on Cleveland pretty good.

He is Carl Johnson from the bow of Osh Sports or sports, a grecuar. They're at Jack Jackson in case he didn't already follow me, you can add onto his DM list of fifty or so, fifty or so per day, what if the futures wise with how salar it seems like opinions have been on Dallas and that is a very pro Dallas book. Where you're at, Where are your liabilities sitting at on the future side of things as we get ready for week one?

Yes, so right now, believe it or not, our one of our biggest liabilities is Tampa Bay in the in that division. You know we took h we we put took some significant action there. So other than that, you know, we we had the typical stuff.

Uh.

I mean they're betting us, uh, Kansas City, we're getting bet Baltimore, San Francisco. Uh. But it's you know, in all honesty, it's it's it's spaced out pretty good, it's split up pretty good where Uh.

I think we'll be okay there. Uh.

I think the biggest bullet we need to dodge in the pro futures market is probably Tampa Bay, uh for that division and that conference. So we we took some big bets there and uh, we're gonna be worried about that.

Carl do you get an influx of Texas money? Are you close enough to Austin or people that followed Texas in eastern Texas?

Where do you think this line ends up? Texas at Michigan?

Yeah, we you know so, since they've become part of the SEC, they're heavily bet here and we're yeah, we're not that far away per se. But you know, Mike, I hadn't even seen the opener. Our stuff won't be out until tomorrow morning. I can tell you that Texas will probably be bet here. We'll probably need the other side. I was not impressed with Michigan yesterday. How about I mean, what do you think.

We're already out to five and a half, Carl DK And that was a summer game of the year line at three and a half, so I seemed telling that we're going to be heading toward a touchdown. I would think, alas h Carl Johnson, it's only right that on our final Lombardy line you'd be on with us. Man, it's always been a pleasure. We will see you, I know in some capacity on the morning line going forward here on v SIN. So always a pleasure, sir, Thank you so much for for your time and all your contributions.

Good luck, guys, enjoyed it. You guys have a great weekend. Take care, take care of those LSU folks.

They'll love you.

We will, we will.

God bless you, Carl, God bless Thomas Gable and thanks for the memories.

Of course, one more hour for us here on the lot.

Party line will come back, recap everything and flip forward to the NFL on the other side.

VSiN Best Bets

Get the best of VSiN right here on VSiN Best Bets. Every day, analysis of sports betting can be foun 
Social links
Follow podcast
Recent clips
Browse 27,806 clip(s)