VSiN Best BetsIn this week's episode of The Football Contest Show, hosts Matt Brown and Mike Somich are joined by Derek Stevens and Jeff Benson to update the Circa Million and Circa Survivor contest. They also share their tips for how to approach a season long contest and how weather impacts a line.
This is the football Contest show on Visaid these Sports Betting Network.
It is the football Contest Show here on Beson. Matt Brown, Mike Salmas join each and every week by the man, the myth of legend, the man that makes us all happen, Derek Stevens, and of course the guy behind the counter that you don't see but just should. He's making everything happen back there, that's Jeff Benson. Guys appreciate the time each and every week, and this is something I know everyone is. I've gotten more comments on this show because people saying it's just so interesting to kind of not only get these numbers coming in real time, but just the thought process behind all this. Some people weren't even thinking about, you know, why a person might do this or why this is coming in the way that it did. And so even the strategy side of things people are loving. Well, that's great.
We appreciate the opportunity to come and see you guys on a Saturday night before before we kick off the night and go into the wee hours.
So good to see you, bellas good to.
See you as well.
It's another fun week here in both Millions and Survival will get into survivor here in the next segment, but we'll kick it off with millions, a lot of interesting games, a lot of quarterback injuries that were important toward the lines that kind of shifted one way or another before we jump into some of the specifics. Do you want to kick us off, Jeff, tell you see the five one was picked off?
Yeah.
Absolutely. A couple of housekeeping notes for the listeners. This is obviously week six overall for the contest. This is going to be week two of quarter two, which is a five week quarter for the listeners. As a reminder, and last week in week one of quarter two, there was one hundred and sixty two people who started five and oh in the quest for the one hundred and fifty thousand dollars grand prize for the quarter. So certainly an exciting and good start for a lot of people here, and as we work our way into week two of the second quarter, hopefully a lot of those people who went five and oh we are going to be looking for the same. So when we look at the counts by popularity, they are as follows, not surprisingly and probably the most popular consensus pick ever in the Circus Sports Million, the forty nine Ers minus seven and a half against the PJ Walker led Cleveland Browns. Twenty two hundred and forty people selected the forty nine ers minus seven and a half. Definitely an interesting game, you know, right up against that Thursday ten am deadline when we released these static numbers, you know, the news about Watson was leaking. You know, this number kind of extended a little bit, but we got to hang a number when ten am hits, and you know, seven and a half on the Niners was basically what the market was painted at when we came out with it. So obviously, when when things continued to leak out afterwards, this line extended, got all the way up to ten and a half before seeing some buyback. But not surprising to see the Niners the most popular pick in this week's Circus Sports Million contests. Working our way down the list, the Cincinnati Bengals minus two and a half at home against the Seattle Seahawks. Nineteen hundred and forty four people selected the Bengals this week. The Ravens minus four across the Pond in London versus the Tennessee Titans. We had a total of fifteen hundred and twelve, so auctions on that not surprising either, as we've seen that line drift out to five and a half here at CIRCA Sports. Continuing to work our way down the board, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus three and a half at home against Derek's Lions. Fourteen hundred and sixty seven people selected the Tampa Bay Bucks this week against a pretty banged up Lions team. And then, last but not least, the Colts plus four in a divisional game on the road versus the Jacksonville Jaguars returning from London. Thirteen hundred and ninety three people back to the Colts plus four. So to recap one more time for the listeners, forty nine Ers minus seven and a half, Bengals minus two and a half, Ravens minus four, Bucks plus three and a half, and the Colts plus four, Gentlemen, aren't.
I quite the chunk donkey this week?
Four the four of the five picks in the Yeah, quite the chalk going this week?
So, Jeff, we talk all the time about you know, you kind of got to guess what the lines are going to be. You guys are trying to post the best line where you think this is going to end up this is the first week where we've had weather really play a factor in several different games this week. How does that play in, if at all, whenever you guys are trying to put these numbers together.
Yeah, I mean, I would say, obviously there's no totals in this contest, but it certainly can and does affect the spread. You know, the higher the spread or the lower the spread, you know, when that total dips up or down based on the weather, that can certainly pull the spread in a little bit, you know, particularly the bigger the spread is. So I think obviously when you look at that Brown game once it got up to ten and a half, and you know the total was being met down thirty seven, thirty six, thirty five and a half, obviously with the points becoming more valuable in that spot, you're going to see some money on the dog come So I think, just generally speaking, even though we don't offer totals in the contest, weather does play a factor as it relates to the spread, just because when those totals do drift down, the points do become more valuable.
By and large, let's talk a little bit of travel.
It's been something with these international games has been very interesting. We had Jacksonville stay out there for two weeks, so that was a little bit of a new thing, and now they're coming back for the first time. We've got decisions from both Baltimore and Tennessee that are very different and when they should go out there. How does that affect the line? When you guys are putting this together, do you look at that travel Is it just the line one two points or is it it's something where you're waiting to see what the public plays it.
Yeah, I mean I think obviously when we hang those numbers on Sunday, you know, a lot of that probably ninety ninety five percent of that's gonna be baked into the number. And then obviously it's up to you know, the guys who are betting the limits. You know, it really kind of shape and get us to where we need to be. So I think it's interesting when you look at this week, you have two games that have teams that played in London. Obviously the game that is being played in London, the Ravens have taken a lot of money, you know, obviously the Tennessee Titans, you know, have some injuries. The Ravens have certainly gotten healthier on their side. But when you talk about the different strategies as it relates to London travel, the Ravens went out there on Monday. They've had a whole week to act and get comfortable, whereas Tennessee went on Thursday. So it'll be interesting to see kind of how that plays out in terms of the game on the field. And then conversely on the other side, you know, maybe some people are fading the Jaguars coming back after two weeks across the pond in London and now got to come back stateside in a divisional game against the Colts, who you know, don't have to travel as far relative to what the Jaguars did. Not surprising to see the Ravens and Colts be popular and certainly take money in the market based on those angles that you noted.
I think one of the more interesting ones for me, guys is just this this this Bengals Seahawks game, right, I mean, like, this is a game where I have heard nothing but Seahawks love. I mean like, nothing but Seahawks love. And then I see Cincinnati and I understand that you get the half point there in all of this, but man, it was kind of We've only seen one good week of Joe Burrow, right, and so with that, it's kind of surprising to me that so few people back in the Seahawks where there is when there is so much Seahawks love out there in the market right now. Yeah, it's interesting.
You know, it's a game that's traded between two and a half juiced and three, yeah, reduced juice, and I think that's kind of where you're going to see it. It's interesting because it looks like Joe Burrow's getting healthier. He's not on the injury report, and obviously they looked pretty good against the Cardinals last week in terms of passing the ball and getting back to some of those offensive you know, characteristics that they had pre Burrow when he was healthy, in terms of having a little bit more mobility in the pocket and things like that. So it's been a great game in terms of trading, just going back and forth between two and a half and three. Yeah, not surprised to see, you know, the Bengals in this spot, given that it is two and a half. I think obviously if we had three, we may see the Seahawks in that spot as opposed to the Bengals.
And coming through just thirty two seconds ago, Jeremy Fowler saying T Higgins is going to give it a go, so.
Not going to rise.
Yeah, he was full practice. I believe it was on Friday. Wanted to go last week and when I will get in there, Derek, you mentioned we talked about last week. Phenomenal Sunday and Monday night games. Great for the book here you were sold out in stadium, swims sold out here. Sunday Night doesn't quite deliver this week. We've got bills in the Giants, but Monday Night a pretty good one. We've got the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers. A Charger's got the mass majority of the plays there at two and a half.
Does that surprise you at all? And how is the book expecting this game?
Because it's because all the money's come in and the last day it's been all Chargers. Actually, I mean we were two and a half yesterday. We're now we're hanging a one and a half right now. So pretty big move for a marquee game in the last twenty four hours. You know, Mike, one of the things you just brought up just a second ago, I think that the strategy play is with London. I just want to go back to this travel component. I think everyone is waiting the London travel a little bit more than what they did maybe a month ago. Because of what Jacksonville did in their second game and around how they handled Buffalo, they look more acqulim. I think that's also why there's a little more concerned with jackson But coming back, and I think that's exactly why we've seen Baltimore raven money because of the decision to leave directly for Pittsburgh to go there.
I think the.
Waiting of travel, jet lag and the stories coming out has now added could be a points worth of value on this type of travel for who's there longer and whatnot.
I found it fascinating that they've been overseas once before, get pounded by thirty seven, and off a one single data point, Harbaugh completely changes when he wants to go over to London. It shows you how much that travel actually does matter for an NFL franchise. And when you have your opponent de signed to fly out on a red eye on Thursday night, like okay, all right, fine, that's the direction we'll go.
Then we can go for it.
But It's been also interesting to see a lot of these teams not take a buy off the travel because these London games are so early in the season that they don't want to use their buy that early in the season. They'd rather have it later and kind of deal with the negative travel situation right after the game.
Yeah, it's it's definitely changed, changing the way we're looking at things. So this will be our last one here for a few weeks, and then uh, then we take a couple of weeks off and.
Then we uh then we get ready to move to Germany for a couple Yeah.
And I mean I think also with with the Jaguars, they have so much familiarity over there, you know, that may be worth something, uh you know, to some people. But yeah, I think obviously with the Ravens getting blasted, they certainly wanted to try something new and it'll be interesting to see what the market thinks of that. But so far, as Derek alluded to, it's been all Raven money.
Look here, the Patriots still getting a decent amount of love in this contest, and it goes to show we talk about this every week, that that the betters in this contest are a little bit sharper, and it's not just what they see the previous week, because let me tell you what we've seen the last couple of weeks in the Patriots has been awful, man. And I don't know, I don't know what you get what you're seeing over the counter there, Jeff. But man, it's uh, it is not a lot to love about, at least what we've seen on the field with the Patriots so far.
Yeah, very similar to the Bengals Seahawks. You know, it's all about the number. I think obviously early in the week, the Raiders took money and you know a lot of that had to do with how poorly the Patriots looked last week. And then once that number got up to three, I think the market had enough of you know, the Raider love at that point and certainly some buyback. So I could see this trading between two and a half and three with some juice attached to it. But yeah, it'll be an interesting game, and you know, maybe going on the road, Belichick's able to rally the troops.
Just to recap here forty nine ers your most popular pick of the week. Cincinnati, Baltimore Tampa Bay coming off the by getting the three and a half comes in the fourth most popular pick, and the Colts just behind that. The Dolphins. People don't care about that. Thirteen and a half number, thirteen hundred picks on the Dolphins this week when we come back, what is the survivor picks? What are the numbers? That's what you came here for. It is the Football Contest show.
This is the Football Contest Show on VI, said the Sports Betting Network.
Before you make a next bet, sure visits tikon and check out the current bettings blits dat if you want over the money and the bets are moving for every game. Betting Swiss page updated every five minutes so you can see the changes in the action. You can check out not just today's but future events as well. Bettings splits over at vson dot com. Matt Brown, Mike SMAs, Derek Stevens, and Jeff Benson in here and we just went over the most popular picks over in the millions. If you're just joining us, it was Niners, Bengals, Ravens, Bucks and Colts over there. But we know you want to come. You came here to see how many people are left. What is an entry worth and what is the most popular pick in the circus of every the biggest survivor contest in the world. I don't know if it is, but I'm gonna say it. I'm saying it's the biggest survivor in the world. Yeah, in the world, Derek, What are we looking at this week?
Yeah?
We had, we had, we had a week.
We were going in with eighteen hundred and thirty six eligible Circus survivors going into week six, and in order, the top selection, the Los Angeles Rams was seven hundred and eighty three selections, that's forty two percent of the remaining pool. Choice two Miami Dolphins with four hundred and forty selections so twenty four percent of the pool. Buffalo Bills are third with three hundred and eighty two selections, Fourth and in the house with the Kansas City Chiefs from Thursday night with eighty four selections. Baltimore Ravens fill out the top five with thirty four selections. In the game we talked about in London tomorrow this week, there was a total of seventeen teams selected. So as weeks go on, you're not going to We're not going to be seeing this twenty three to twenty four team selected, so seventeen teams overall selected. The implied value is now over five thousand dollars at five and fifty for every remaining Circa Survivor contestant. I know it's topical, but we're going to continue our streak. There's unfortunately a single no pick going into week six. So we were at eighteen thirty six to start the week, and we're at eighteen thirty five here on Saturday night in downtown Las Vegas.
They must have achieved their goal to get to week six. No continue it.
I just can't imagine the.
Anxiety or the I really think that some people don't even realize there's a deadline and they just have happened down slate, gotten in the path before four o'clock in the subsequent weeks, and then they just Yeah, It's just it's one of those things that's mind blowing. So for those who are listening, go to the Circus Sports dot com website, read the rules that I've worked so hard to write, and make sure you prepare for the holiday weeks both Thanksgiving yes black Slash Yes Slash Black Friday.
You're not cutting anybody any slack, all right, Like.
There's and Christmas. This is not an eighteen week Survivor contest. This is a twenty week survivor contest.
I don't want to be too early in this, but at some point I'm going to start start saying, if you don't have a proxy, you know, proxies are still taking new clients. At some point I recommend you do that. You know, we all buy insurance for our house. Yeah, there's a reason why. Well, this is kind of like buy an insurance here proxies. Proxies will take a little more business if you don't want to, don't want to spend whatever they're charging a couple hundred bucks or something. Make sure you have a buddy that lives out here. You got to have a backup plan. What if your phone goes Dad? Whats whats if there's a cell tower that goes off where you're at? Starting to become some real, real implied value here.
One of the nice parts about the proxyvill text you if it's close to the devil, I say, hey, you're gonna put this in here.
What's going on?
Interesting results to come out this week? The RAMS the topic team here forty two percent. I would have been very surprised by that preseason. But what we've seen from the Rams, and we saw Arizona without Connor this week, I think I'm not as surprised. We talked about the Dolphins being one of the heavily used teams. They're sitting here in second. Were you guys surprised that was?
First? And second? Were you expecting it to be flipped?
I thought I thought everyone with the Dolphins was going to use them, use them today. So I thought the Dolphins number at four forty, I thought that would have been higher. Now on the availability, remember there's a limited amount of availability. The Miami Dolphins only at eight hundred and ten circus survivors had the Dolphins available, I thought we were going to get closer to six seven hundred Dolphins because I don't know when else you could use it. Maybe next week maybe maybe that's what you're saving. More against the Steelers, but that's about it, or against wait a second, Steelers.
They've got Las Vegas week eleven. The Rams have the Steelers next weekend.
Yeah, the Rams are the Steelers next week.
So on the Rams, the Rams almost the availability was almost wide open with the With the Rams, I thought the Rams are going to be used to this week here or next week, because I can't see when you're gonna use them later in the year. So not surprised that the Rams were up there. I'm surprised that Dolphins weren't selected a little bit, a little bit higher.
Obviously the Bills are.
Are a place strictly by UH, strictly because of uh the point spread and and the how horrible horrible the New York Giants are.
Yeah, Rams didn't surprise me. I don't think at all, because Jeff, we came into the season, I haven't I haven't all your very book out here, having all under on the on the Cardinals, and then of course you see them kind of start to play a little plucky to begin the season. You're thinking, I'm like, all right, well, this ticket's dead. But I think they kind of rounded into what we thought they were gonna be. They're fine, and it was a fun little story about them kind of fighting. But then you look and it's like they lose to the Giants, and we see what the giants are. They lose to the Commanders, we see what the commanders are. They get housed by the forty nine ers and in the Bengals, so we the corners kind of I think are kind of rounding into what we thought they were going to be.
Yeah, I mean, obviously they were competitive, you know under Gannon to start the season. You know, I think maybe a lot of people thought they were going to be the worst team in football. You know, maybe that's not the case now from a you know, a point spread perspective or a power rating perspective, I think when you look at the Rams, obviously they get to go home, they get Cooper cup back. You know, he's sort of rounding into form when you look at his prop market in terms.
Of where he's at.
Obviously you got two other good receivers in Puka Nakua and to two at well, and the Rams look relatively good. You know, they were a team that had, you know a lot of question marks coming into the season. I think if you're a Rams backer and circus survivor, you know, you probably hope Sean mcvay's you know, girlfriend or wife doesn't have her maybe so that you know he doesn't coach on Sunday. But yeah, I mean I'm not surprised obviously to see the Rams up there. You know, this number went, you know, the Rams are taking some money in the market, so certainly not surprising to see them be a popular pick here in Circus Arrived.
Yeah, I mean, I mean, I think, I think the other thing with the cards, I mean this whole, the whole James Conner element. As that played out through the week, I think we saw that. That's when we moved the number from basically six to seven on the Connor News.
Yeah, it seems like the perfect time to use the RAMS here. You have a Cooper Cup that's been integrated back into the offense, you have a week team that you're facing James Connor going to be out. All sets up well for a RAMS use here, especially since there aren't a ton of great spots to use them down the line. Now, one thing we talk about each week is the team of death Right. We've got eight teams that have one percent or more of the pool, one of them already through here, the Kansas City Chiefs. They've already got right around five percent of the pool. Through of those teams with one percent, the Rams, the Dolphins, the Bills, the Ravens, the Jags, the Eagles, and the Raiders, who is.
The moment I'm gonna jump in first on this one because I'm a believer there's you don't have to have a team of death every week. Oh but I am also glad you said at the threshold of one percent, well, you know, so you leave the door open if I had to pick one at one percent, I'm not really a big fan of the Raiders this week, so that's the one eighteen selections. But I think this is a week where we're going to have an awful I mean, we're going to almost everybody get through. I don't think we're going to see a lot of wipeouts. That's my thought on this particular weekend. If I had to pick somebody, I would be a little leery on the Raiders. Right.
We had to go pretty deep for the one percent because I agree with you, I don't think you're going to have any of the big numbers drop out. I think that the Jaguars a little bit in danger there too. I think the Colts could to play the upset, especially as how well they played them Week one.
Yeah, divisional game coming back from London. As we talked about earlier, I think the Jaguars and the Raiders, as you guys talked about, those would be the two teams that I would look at as being on upset alert.
If you look at some of these other teams that are getting selected, and we understand there's game theory involved in everything, but you see like the Bears, and you see the Vikings, and you see like what are like?
What?
What?
I wonder if the person who took the Bears also took the Vikings and this was a way for them to advance and blow a team they would never use again. I don't know that without digging a little bit more, but just thinking about it for five seconds, that would be my thought.
Yeah, when I saw that, I thought, Okay, this goes back to somebody's running running an option. They've got two or more entries and and they're basically sacrificing a pick to then ensure moving on, and then they will have selected a team that you can you can arguably say you're never going to select.
Yeah, that was my thought as well.
I probably want six centuries to do that.
It would be it would not be two. Let's just put it.
That way, especially this early in the sea.
Yeah, is there is Jeff, is this is probably unfair to ask off the top of your head, is there a week that you remember where what was like the least amount of of eliminations with this many left. Do you remember do you remember there only being like a handful of eliminations and a couple of weeks.
Yeah, I mean, I think when you look at last year, you know, we started off so hockey stick curve in terms of, you know, having ninety percent plus of the pool gone through you know, say four or five weeks, and then we had a three or four week stretch where like nobody got eliminated before things really ramped up for another three or four week stretch where we just chopped a lot of numbers. So it goes in waves and it comes in ebbs and flows. But obviously, when you have seven teams select, seventeen teams selected.
You can certainly lose a number of different people. Rams, Dolphins, Bills, the three games, everyone's going to be three teams. Everyone's going to be rooting for here. Of course, the Chiefs already home here in circa survivor no Team of Death. This week. You heard it here first on the Football Contest Show.
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Check the experts leaderboard. You can do the betting records profit rose which Vison expert has the hot hand over there. Vson Pro Picks, betting splits, power ratings, plus twenty four to seven video access. Become a vson Pro subscriber today. You can sign up for as little as nineteen American dollars for your first month, and you can do that at vson dot com slash subscribe. It is the football contest show here on Vson. Matt Brown, Mike Smitch and we just got hot off the presses, as they say, we just got the consensus picks in all of the contests over here at CIRCA on the million side of things, forty nine Ers, Bengals, Ravens, Bucks, Colts, those are all your those are your top five, but not far off. Dolphins, they were only ninety three selections behind the Colts Dolphins thirteen and a half here in the contest, so people not scared off by that big number. Chargers is the next in line, and that is the first one that really jumps off the page to me, Mike, because kind of a coin flippy game, right, I mean, it's two and a half points, and so you're not even getting a full field goal and it's the and you're taking the other side of not getting the full field goal.
Yeah, you're coming off of by So I get why some people want to get on the Chargers.
Austin Eckler going to be back in this spot for the.
Chargers as well, as he's expecting to be back.
I haven't heard him official announced in.
So I get why there's the Chargers love and Jeff mentioned this line is now down to one and a half. But how key is the number two? Not as key as some other numbers that you could get. So this isn't necessarily a pure line value play here. And this seems like a bounce back spot for the Cowboys as well. They just got absolutely she shellacked by the forty nine Ers on Sunday Night Football last this week, you would think that they want to come back and play good game in primetime. Oh, by the way, this is a pseudo home game for the Cowboys as well. They're going to be way more Cowboy fans in Los Angeles in the world than there will be Chargers fans. So I was surprised this one was selected as high as it was.
To me.
If this was three, I would have considered the Chargers, but at two and a half, I couldn't really get there.
The next selection, which we will reveal our picks here in just a minute, and this one doesn't, unfortunately play into ours, because had we known that everyone was going to back the Jets, we probably would have come in and back the Eagles. I just didn't think people were going to do it, specifically given the injury news that we got coming out of the Jets side, both starting corners are going to be out for them. And so now you look at one of the last two undefeated teams in the NFL, who's gone out taking care of business week after week, and still everyone going against them. I don't know why. If people hate the Eagles, and if we'd have known that people hated the Eagles again this week, we'd have done it. Just strictly from a strategy standpoint.
People just hate the blood brotherly shove. I mean, that's all it is.
It's nowhere you can stand it, so they're not going to do it the Eagle. That's it is amazing to me. We talked about this when we we talking about picks earlier. I mean, you're consistently seeing the Eagles get faded. Yeah, this is a team that went to the Super Bowl last year. There's starting to come around with a new OC, a new DC has been against money and yet continued to cover, and yet people still keep betting against them. This line is ticked down to six and a half now, so I could understand from that perspective. Okay, I want the full seven, but I am surprised as many people want to back Zach Wilson when both its cornerbacks are out.
Yeah, It's just it's it is pretty odd here. And and again, if I'd have if I'd have known, we certainly would have been on on the other side. And we've we've guessed pretty well so far as to which games people were going to be on. And uh, that one is certainly one that I was not thinking that people are gonna be on the judge.
I wish we didn't use one team. We'll talk about it when we get to that team. I wish we passed on one team specifically because of the US and we knew it was going to be a used game, and I.
Just I should have said, yeah, it didn't know it's going to be that used though. So let's go ahead and get to our picks. And first and foremost, we're to start out with that London game, start out with that early game. And we went ahead and played Baltimore at four. We're getting a point and a half from what the current line is right now, five and a half in favor of Baltimore. Lots of injuries on the Tennessee side of things. We've talked about how this defense has traditionally been a pass funnel in which you can't run on them, you really can pass on them. And that's the way that defense, that's the way offenses have to kind of go in. Well, now you have some key injuries on the defensive line, which then should open up holes all over the place. I think Baltimore is going to be able to do whatever they want to in this game. They just can't do this turnover thing yet again, right, and so if as long as they don't do that, I think they take care of business and the market at least degrees.
Yeah, they catch the football, They're going to win this game.
Now.
That was a problem for them last week, so hopefully can get around that. I love the fact that we're getting a Baltimore team that is getting healthy again. We're going to see the starting line, a starting offensive line on the field for the first time since Week one for this Baltimore team. I love the travel here too. I like the fact that Baltimore decided to go out on a Monday. We didn't see the Titans go out until Thursday night, flying overnight to get into London. You mentioned the Beat writers saying the practice looked very sluggish. No way after a red eye the plaantice isn't great in London the next day. To me, this is just a big time edge to the to the Ravens is the one that I've already bet myself and I'm happy we have it in the account.
Our next one I like a ton This one I have in a money line parlay with the Eagles. But it's the Rams at seven. And if you look at what the Rams have done on the offensive side of the ball, much much more impressive than we thought heading into the season. Pooka Nakua kind of came out of nowhere. This was a guy that if you paid attention in training camp, they said, you know, this guy probably is going to earn some reps. It was more like, hey, we think this guy is going to get some reps. He is really really shining, and we think that this guy is probably going to be someone that can contribute a little bit. Little did we know that he was going to be leading the NFL and and you know, all time categories through the first four and five and six games of his career and stuff like that. But now you get Cooper Cup back, you still have two two out well, and you're coming in here against the Cardinal team that has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I think the Rams do go up and down the field here in the touchdown You mentioned it earlier and we were previewing the game. You don't think the touchdowns even enough?
No, I don't.
I think this should be double digits here. The Rams are going to score thirty. I just don't see how Arizona gets to twenty. So for me, the seven is fine to lay it here. You've got three dynamic wide receivers, a healthy Matt Stafford, and this defense, which I thought was going to be bottom two in the NFL, is currently twentieth in the league.
That is a huge upgrade from where it was before.
The offense sitting at ninth and the clock is struck midnight on this Cinderella that is Arizona Connor's out.
The defense isn't very good.
We saw we saw the quarterback come back down to earth last week as well. To me, this is the right time to start fading this Arizona Cardinals team. I love the Rams by seven.
This is the selection that you know, look, it's the one that you want back. It's the one. We knew it was going to be popular, just didn't know how popular, because I gotta be honest, I thought a lot of people might get cute in this scenario, and I thought a lot of people might take the other side trying to zig when everyone else was zagging, and we're going to get this at a little bit less than we thought. And instead it ended up being the most popular pick of the week. And as we just found out maybe one of the most popular picks of all time in the contest, which is the forty nine Ers as seven and a half point favorites over the Cleveland Browns, who are going to be going PJ. Walker at quarterback. This is now up to nine and a half elsewhere. That being said, you know, look, it is a weather game. Things can get wonky in a weather game. So you know, I don't think this is in the bag for us by any stretch of the imagination. But so I am with you. If we'd have known this was going to be one of the most popular selections of all time, then maybe we would have gone a different direction.
I'm not surprised it was popular. Yeah, I'm surprised it was this popular. And anytime you have a two point line move in these contests, you're going to see a lot of people take it. But a two point line move from seven and a half to nine and a half, that's.
Why I thought people get I thought people would play the strategy of playing the Browns because it's kind of like, it's not the eight is dead dead, but I mean it's not across key numbers at all.
I was expecting people to leave it off yeah, so they could root for the Browns. I thought that is going to be one of the ways that people go with this. And like I said, a two point number move from two and a half to four and a half, Yeah, every time. We were taking that, Yeah, every single time. But when you have a number from seven and a half to nine and a half, you're not catching.
Any key numbers. Nothing else is really changing.
The number was built in that it felt like Watson was unlikely to go at seven and a half. That's why you've only seen a two point move in the market. So I was surprised there was this many people at seven.
And a half. This was the most one I was most lukewarm on.
Because I was expecting it to be popular and I don't necessarily love it. I expect that San Francisco is going to cover, Like, I think this is the right side at seven and a half. But I would rather take the Eagles laying the seven and be more contrarian than have this this seven and a half and have twenty two hundred and thirty nine other players riding with us.
The Bucks are getting a hook in the contest. It is three everywhere right now, so we're getting a very important hook on that three and a half against the Lions. Just mention this whenever we're talking about the preview of this game. Lines are pretty beat up. Man. If you look, there's a lot of injuries on that Lion side of the ball, and the Bucks are coming in and pretty healthy. And a healthy Bucks squad has guys that can play on the offensive side of the ball, it has guys that can play on the defensive side of the ball. Now five weeks from now, because the Buys already passed the Bucks, and onf five weeks from now, we might be fading the Bucks because all these old guys are getting nicked up and beat up and we're playing second string and third string guys. But at least for this version of the Bucks, I'm happy to back them at three and a half.
How important is the hook?
Right?
This half point is more important than the full two points we.
Talked about last game. Fourteen percent of the time an NFL game lands on three, fourteen percent of the time does not land on eight.
Right, So this is a more important half point than those two points.
This is a game where was it three, I probably wouldn't be on the Bucks here, But since we get that three and a half.
I like the Bucks here coming off the bite home.
Our final pick is the hold your nose play of the week. We're playing the Patriots at three full field goal. Listen, two terrible teams. If you're gonna give me a full field goal with a terrible team, I'll just take it. We're not in love with the Patriots by any stretch of the imagination. We actually think they're kind of bad, but hey, so so are the Raiders.
The look ahead for this was was pick them.
Yes it was bad last weekend, Yeah, okay, Las Vegas beat the Packers sort of in an ugly game. This stereo should not have been a three point change in those two teams over one week. This is just a pure value play and I'm not gonna watch them into this game.
I don't want to watch it either, none of it. I don't want to watch this thing. But I mean, especially because I have a bet on it. Can you imagine sweating this is?
This is why you have the thirty minute condensed game so that you don't waste three hours watching this.
When it's three to two with four minutes left in the fourth quarter. Like, that's what we're going to be dealing with' go me survivor side of things when we come back. It is a football contest show here on Visa.
This is the football contest show on VI said the sports betting network.
Hey, we do a lot of podcasts on this network and come at you. They're coming at you from all listen only one of them. You know what, that's not true. There are two of them that have me, So that's a lot. But two of them have me, but one of them has me. They're talking about football and as the All Angles podcast go in wherever you listen to your podcast, type in all Angles, type in vison, do all of those different things, find it subscribe. We're going through games each and every week. We're breaking down Monday night football, Thursday night football, every which away talk and pick I'm talking survivor, doing whatever we can to try and make some money. So far, so good on an NFL season. Let's hope we can continue to stay in the green. It is a football contest show here on VSA. Matt Brown, Mike Samitch and we just went through what we're doing in the contest this week, and yeah, you know, look a couple of picks in which I think that maybe we would have zigged if we'd have known people were zagging and all that, but hey, listen, we can't predict every single thing, so we did. We're doing the Ravens, Rams, Niners, Bucks and Pats this week. And yeah, you heard that right. A guy that can't stand the Patriots and another guy that really didn't like the Patriots are on the Pats this week. And it kind of is what it is, and so we're going to full field goal. Let's hope they can keep it within a field goal.
That kind of helped spoiler Spoiled Fish game of the Week. It just stinks. Well, you know, what can you do?
So we do pro tips here on this program each and every week, once a show, we're going to give you approach. And this is more of a for your information because if you are dual screening with us as we're doing this, and if you're watching the replay, it's still going to be relevant to you. If you don't know this. The rest of Country books, specifically at DraftKings, these award markets, all these other different types of bests that they leave up are dynamically changing in game as things are happening. So let's just take four example, Caleb Williams comes into today as one of the very very short shots to win the Heisman Trophy. Well, you see another guy and Michael Pennox go out and have a big game, his odds get shorter, Caleb williams odds get longer. Then Caleb Williams plays and doesn't play all that great to start a game, and he drifts from what was two thirty five to begin the day, four to one to begin the game, all the ways high as fifteen to one in game. So these markets are actually changing in game. So if you didn't know that, you can go in and try to pick off some of these lines that you think that is just a major overreaction.
Well, and one of the beauties of this is that these lines change based on what people bet, so they change slower than the in game line.
If you're looking to bet in game, and let's.
Say the USC Notre Dame game, that is going to change dynamically based off an algorithm, the variant bets, they the derivative bets, they are going to change slower because they will need to be a bet to come in to actually change those odds. So you're able to get in front of those odds moves as the game is playing out, if you can get to it first, and if it is hammered first, you can kind of bob and weave and go to the other bigger price. Caleb Williams of fifteen to one win the Heisman in game, for instance, where he has never been anywhere close to that price for years.
So pretty interesting stuff out there. Not something I actually get here in Vegas, so be sure and take advantage of it. Rest of country where you have DraftKings, take advantage of because we don't have it here. So trust me, it's sad.
It is. So we look at the numbers, move and just said it's here.
It's at all right Over and Survivor. A couple of plays this week are the most popular that I could have guessed. We're going to be the most popular. Rams. Dolphins come in at forty two point six percent and twenty four percent respectively. That is seven hundred and eighty three picks and four hundred and forty picks. The Bills are your third pick and actually a little bit higher than I thought. Bills at three hundred and eighty two picks, and that is twenty point eight percent for the week between those three picks. Let's do math, math, math, math math. Eighty six percent, eighty seven percent of the entries are between those top three picks right there for the week. Rams. If we look at this, it's it's a game that we've kind of beaten to death here, but it's just it still rings true and survivor and pick them. And even if you're playing the spread this week, you're getting a really good version of the Rams right now. Cooper Cup being back, Puka Nakua is healthy too, too, at Well is healthy, Matthew Stafford is healthy. You're getting the best version of this RAMS team against the Cardinals team is kind of rounding into form, and when I say rounding into form, rounding into what we thought they were going to be entering the season, which is one of, you know, the bottom five teams, if not one of the bottom three teams in all the NFL. And so if there was ever a time that you were going to use the RAMS and you were going to not use one of these big double digit favorites, this would be the week to do it. And that's actually what a lot of people did seven hundred and eighty three, to be exact, Yeah.
If you sat at the start of the season and you look through the schedule, I would guess a lot of people did not bookmark this game.
Is there one they're going to play in week six? Yet here we are. It's a great game to be playing.
And because of how the Rams have been playing, because of what we saw in Arizona, because we're going to be missing James Connor this week, it all lines up to be able to say, Okay, I'm going to use the Rams here. And the Rams are an interesting team to me because you need to use them when you have the opportunity to. They could fall off a cliff very, very quickly. We've already seen Cooper Cup be injured this year. If you lose Aaron Donald, if Matt Stafford gets banged up again, all of a sudden, this is a team you have absolutely no interest in using. It seems like the perfect time to try and use a team like this.
Yeah, Because if you start to look, yeah, I guess you could play them against Pittsburgh next week, You're not gonna feel super confident in that. And then it's Dallas, then it's Green Bay, then it's a bye, then it's Seattle. So you don't get Arizona again until week twelve. And this is called survivor. You gotta make it to survivor. You know, you got to you gotta make it to week twelve.
And that's at Arizona. To me, the next like the next time I really consider him, Week fifteen at home against Washington. I don't trust this is gonna be the same Rams team in week fifteen that it is week six.
That being said, the Dolphins are interesting because if you didn't use them last week and then figured out a way to not use them this week, you're not gonna use them against the Eagles. Maybe, I guess depending on how the Patriots look this week, and if the Patriots really are just as bad as expected, then maybe you'd feel pretty comfortable using them in Week eight against the Patriot. But you're not using them against Kansas City, then there's a bye. You know. It's just it's kind of an interesting squad with the Dolphins, right because there's a bunch of games where I think you'd be like, you know, okay, I guess, but you're not going to be jumping up and down about use them. Even the game against the Commanders is at the Commanders I mean, it's just a kind of a weird deal. So I actually thought that there would be more Dolphins love this week in Survivor.
I'm not shocked because I do think there's three games you could use them left. You've got Las Vegas at home in week eleven, You've got Tennessee at home in week fourteen, and the Jets at home in week fifteen.
I think you would use them in all three of those spots.
So if I had the Rams and the Dolphins, I'd be using the Rams because I would want to be able to keep the Dolphins, and I trust the Rams will get through this week, and I think they're good spots for the Dolphins later. I mean, look, if you get in a shootout with Tennessee or the Jets, Dolphins winning that shootout and that's what you would project you're going to see in both those spots. Same with the Raiders coming up Raiders games after a bye as well. So a couple good spots.
From Miami down the line, if you're able to save them through these two weeks.
And then the Bills. I think this is just a lot of people looking and going I don't know how much I trust the Bills, So let me just go ahead and throw them in there, and go ahead and use them against the Giants, because yeah, I know, they get the Patriots next week, but it's at the Patriots, And yeah, I know, a little bit later in the season, there's Denver and there's the Jets. But you see the Bills running, mounting up injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and you start to go, you know what, there's not a lot of people left in my pool. There's not a lot of people left in this pool. Let me just go ahead and move on here. I don't know how comfortable I feel playing this team.
I wonder if you could get through the rest of the season just fading the Giants, Cardinals, Bears, and Panthers, because that might not be a terrible strategy. I'd not actually tried to map that out, but at this point you could almost make an argument that I want to start fading specific teams and figure out, how can I always be fading one of these bottom feeders that, by the way, are going to start tanking for someone here from a quarterback perspective, how can I get on board to try and just play against those every week?
Who is your bottom rated Power rank team right now.
Right now with injuries, it's the Carolina Panthers.
Okay, So with if you wanted to fade the Panthers each and every week kind of moving forward, There's a bye week next week in week seven, but then it's Houston. Are you gonna play Houston? And then it's Indy, and then it's Chicago. It's like a horrible stretch against You can't fade the Panthers. You can do it, you can't fait the Panthers for the next month.
I mean the Houston Indie Gamer at home.
I actually had those picked out as possible plays for Carolina depending at this point of this season. So it would be tough to use this this Panthers team until you know, then you got Dallas at Tennessee, at Tampa, at New Orleans. You can use them all three of those spots if you wanted to.
Yeah, I think the Cardinals are at least interesting again, like I know they're they were feisty, but again they're still losing these games. They're they're one and four Seattle in Week seven, then Baltimore in Week eight. I mean, depending on the quarterback situation with Cleveland in week nine, you could you could play against the Cardinals the next three weeks if you wanted to.
For sure, Yes you could. I mean, yeah, Cleveland, the quarterback situation, the Rams.
This week we have say All and then we have Baltimore. Like you could do that, and I think feel pretty comfortable.
I the Giants are the other ones that I want to look at just because they're the other team that are like, they are just a.
Mess right now.
They're at Buffalo Washington home Jets.
So we just figured out so you can't just fade the car the Panthers, and you can't just fade the Giants. The Cardinals are at least interesting for a team to fade. Now, let's go to the Bears. It's the Vikings this week. What you know is only a three point favorite, and that's also a weather game that it's Vegas. You're not playing Vegas against them.
But then you got Chargers New Orleans.
Chargers New Orleans, so you could go kind of in that direction. It's gonna be interesting how people decide to go about this moving forward, because we just picked our four bottom teams and outside of the Cardinals, there's not like an obvious fade situation for the next month over these with the rest of these other three.
No, there's not.
I could see some people being booted out of this thing, playing Houston in a couple of spots because they've got their playing a couple of these teams, and some people get frisky.
This is this is wild. But again to recap, most popular pick here at circle, which likely then means it's going to be the most popular in your home or home league or any other league in one of the leagues over Draft, Kings, whatever it might be, Rams, Dolphins, Bills, and then a very very small, very very big drop off to the Chiefs, which again is already home from Thursday night football. Guys, if you are in any of these Pickham contests, if you're in any survivor contest, good luck this week. We really do hope that you advance, because we're already out, so we don't we don't really care. We're not playing against you. Good luck here in Week six.
