In this episode of Prop Points host John Hansen is joined by Steven O’Rourke, FantasyPoints.com, as they give a betting preview of the NFL Week 5 slate. Also on the show is Brett Whitefield, Fantasy Points, as they also preview the Week 5 slate of the season.
This is proppoint Ton Vson, the sports Vetting Network. Now here's your host, the guru himself, John Hanson.
Good afternoon, Welcome to a Wednesday edition of prop Points here on Vson, October second. I'm John Hanson of fantasy points dot Com. This program is being produced by Michael Cohen and coming up over the next sixty minutes. It's onward and upward to week number five. We've got plenty of data ahead of the week and Thursday Night Football Tomorrow night. We'll talk fantasy data with fantasypoints dot COM's Stephen O'Rourke. We'll also talk film. It's data plus film. We'll talk advanced matchups here in actionable matchups with Brett Whitefield, also of fantasypoints dot Com. He's kind of the man behind Fantasy Points Data, formerly of Pro fi Ball Focus. And I got to tell you the data has been phenomenal thus far. I'm very excited and I'm very fascinated to see how much the books can kind of catch up to where we've been here on this program. We're over seventy four percent on our official prop picks, so we'll things get a little more difficult right now. I think so But here's the good news as far as I'm concerned.
This is year number two of having a full year of.
The Fantasy Points Data suite, and we've been using a lot of data going back to twenty twenty three the first four weeks because well we don't have four weeks in the books, so you know, we got to go back to the year.
Before for the data. Well, and that's worked out.
But now we have four weeks in the twenty twenty four campaign. So we have a bunch of tools that are populated over at Fantasy Points Data to check in on matchups, coverage, shells, all kinds of really really good stuff.
So very excited, very fired up here.
And at the top of the program here we will look at some news notes, and you know, first week of practice, first day of practice of the week, we get a lot of information coming down the line on a Wednesday, and it will continue to come down as we broadcast here from two to three Eastern time. We have the Davante Adams saga that is continuing here. The Raiders apparently open to trading Davante. He tweeted out his preferred places, so we'll see what happens here. But the bottom line is Davante Adams his value, fantasy value is in limbo right now. I don't think we can trust him. I don't think we can rely on him. You know, last week that hamstring injury kind of came out of nowhere seemingly and then oh, look, he's inactive. As some of these major stars are kind of calling their own shot these days in the NFL, and looks like Davante Adams is next up on the list. Von Miller suspended four games for violating the league's condom policy, which is certainly not a massive hit, but it's a hit obviously's von Miller and the Bills have done pretty well pressuring the quarterback. Good news though for CJ. Stroud this week, and Stroud has been a zone beater. So I think Stroud looking good and Steph Diggs looking good for Steph Diggs revenge game the Browns. I've had a bunch of people out of practice still, Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills, so both starting tackles out for Cleveland. Good matchup at the very least for Deshaun Watson. But man, it's been a couple of years. It's been at least a year since I've said really anything positive about this Shawn Watson. We've got DeMarcus Lawrence placed on IR for the Liz Frank injury, will avoid surgery. We'll see about Michael Parsons. I personally think that Naji Harris is a by low guy. I know he looks terrible out there, but he looked terrible last year as well. But by the end of the year, the data was very good on Naji Harris. They had they put the guard on IR, but they're going to get Isaac Samolo back this week, and I think that does help. So I do like nausey. And we'll say about Jalen Warren. I haven't seen what James Daniels, the other Steeler Olman who did go on IR. We'll see about Jalen Warren and what his deal is. Some other headlines here that have come down the line as I as I call up my notes, I know I wrote it somewhere here. It is a lot of nuggets coming down the line here on a Wednesday afternoon, Like Garrett Wilson, not really a headline, A little bit of a nugget though.
On ESPN Radio today.
Apparently on the Bart and Han Show, said that his route tree hasn't been what it's been the last two years. I actually like Garrett Wilson in this game. I think he will see against Minnesota in London, he will see a lot of Stefan Gilmour. And that's we're going to talk wide receiver cornerback matchups, by the way, But I still I have a feeling here. It's a pretty good schematic matchup for Aaron Rodgers, believe it or not, and a pretty good schematic matchup for Sammy Darnold. So this could be a little higher scoring than people think. So there's that on Garrett Wilson. The you know, the old squeaky wheel gets the oil, and maybe this is his way of being a little squeaky if you will. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports the Bucks and their opponents are game planning for Bucky Irving as he is a focal point of the offense, which he kind of is, let's be honest here, is creating a lot more on his own than Rashad White. But I just think this is smart by the Bucks and it's healthy for their offense because they.
Were a little more one dimensional last year.
And I think Bucky Irvin is giving given them the juice, the creating ability that they needed. They don't block it up all that well, so it just balances things out and makes them a little more difficult to defend. Jeremy Fowler also reporting that Casey's Juju Smith Schuster is the Casey receiver most likely to see a usage boost with Raycie Rice out.
That makes a lot of sense.
Obviously, Rachie Rice was essentially drafted to be the replacement for Juju in the slot.
Apparently sky Moore.
They refuse to play sky Moore in the slot, so I actually did like sky Moore. I chalked that up to probably the worst call I've ever made at wide receiver. But again, they don't play them inside. They refuse, and sky Moore himself told me he should play inside.
So I don't know what's going on there.
But Indy head coach Shane Steikn, as we move along here, said today that Anthony Richardson is feeling a lot better, but he did not practice on Wednesday with this oblique, but we are likely trending toward playing.
And how about this one.
Patriot head coach de Rod Mayo said the team is considering benching. Romandre Stevenson has fumbled in four straight games.
He's now at target.
That was certainly the case last week and didn't take very long for him to fumble again. I think he's only lost two of the four. But a fumble is a fumble, and he's done it four times in a row.
Now here's the problem. Are we really going to go with.
Antonio Gibson, who's not a very good runner and who fumbles himself. Patriots in a little bit of trouble here, and so is Remandre. ESPN's Todd Archer reporting this afternoon that Brandon Cooks is out for Week five and it could seems like it could be a little longer. We'll see if they put him on IR. Big opportunity for Jalen Tolbert. Of course, it's a bad matchup this week because he'll probably see a lot of Joey Porter. But Jalen Tolbert didn't come through us our Thursday Night special last week, but he's pretty darn solid. Trey McBride trending toward returning, per Jonathan Gannon and Devin Singletary out of practice on Wednesday with a groin injury. That would be a Tyrone Tracy time most likely. So there we are. We're caught up on our headlines here. Let's take a look early look at some of the bigger totals on the board here for week number five, and I do have some analysis on these totals. We'll start with the Ravens at the Bengals. We're going to talk a lot of Bengals with our guy Brent Whitefield of Fantasy Points Data has some good stuff there, but they are giving up plenty of production in the middle of the field, so I'm sure Brent will get into that. And Joey b is slinging it in the middle of the field, so I like this one. It's a good schematic matchup for Joey B. Not the greatest chematic matchup though for Lamar, so we'll see about that. Bengald, though, they are kind of a.
Mess, so you can understand why.
And Baltimore is certainly well equipped to take advantage maybe a little Za Flowers, who is kind of emerging as being very game script dependent. If Derek Henry is gonna kick your tail on the other side, if he's going to be out there kicking tail himself and crushing it, then not a lot for Jay Flowers, who's a little bit of a volume guy. Arizona Cardinals at the forty nine ers good matchup here. It's actually a pretty good schematic matchup for Kyler Murray, which certainly bodes well because the Niners they're pretty potent. I think we're looking good with brock Party here in this one. They have been pretty good Arizona against tight ends. But I like Ayuk in this one. We'll get into it. I think Ayuk we'll have a good game based on alignment numbers in his matchup. And of course Deebo is Wow, he's Debo, he's good. Buffalo at Houston like this a lot.
CJ.
Stroud is mister zone crusher, So it's a good schematic matchup for CJ.
Stroud.
A little bit of a Steph Diggs revenge game action, get a little tank dell back, might even see a little Dalton Schultz as well as the Bills have been a little suspect against tight ends of course in the middle of the field, and of course Josh Allen is going to have to keep pace like this one a lot forty seven point five.
It is a good number.
I don't know about this one here Green Bay at La Rams because it's not the greatest schematic matchup for Jordan Love, which we're going to get into forty seven point five. Honestly, I hate taking unders. It's just it's against my religion basically, but I would have to lean toward under on this one. I think it'll be a game. But we're going to talk with Steven O'Rourke maybe Brent Whitefield about this. This does set up for some volume for Josh Jacobs, who is in a little bit of a time share here with Wilson. But Jacobs has been kind of their closer, So I do like Josh Jacobs. I don't think a total is out on him, but we'll be all over.
That this week. Indy at Jacksonville.
I think, well, we'll see about Anthony Richards saying, hey, I'd feel better if it's bro Flaco out there.
For sure.
They do play a lot of man If it is Joe Flacco, then we're good, I think with this total going over.
But we'll say about Anthony Richard.
But I think we have a chance because good schematic matchup for Trevor Lawrence, who did toss eight touchdowns in this matchup. Last year, so I think this is a game that will probably go over and not the greatest matchup for my guy, Christian Kirk. He'll see a lot of Kenny Moore in the slot. But man, Brian Thomas, the rookie. I regret under selling him. I thought he'd be a little bit more of a project.
He's not.
He's all over the field, he's bawling. Really good match up here.
Get ready to be happy with Brian Thomas this week, and get ready to be happy with more data looking at week five.
Here on pop Points on Decon.
You're washing prop points with the guru John han On VISI please Sports Betting.
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I'm doing well man. You know, it's been hot start to the season. You know, you'd like to think that it's going to keep going, and I just I mean, I hope he does. But either way, can't take away from what we've done so far this year.
Yeah, last week, for example, we were we talked I'm looking at it right here. We talked fields and pickens boom, we talked Nico call Boom. We talked Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson Boom. We also TALKT Party and San Fran. You know, Party did have a solid game. I mean, I can't remember exactly what we said, but that's great and we're proud of ourselves.
Do a little back padding, but we do move.
Onward, like I said, and upward to week number five, and you know, not as much jumping off to screen here data wise, but how about what we have on Josh Jacobs.
We'll start there.
I know our guy, Brent Whitefield wants to talk Cincin Andy Bengals in the next segment, but you know, Jacobs has been in a little bit of a time share.
But I'm kind of feeling it here.
It's not the greatest schematic matchup for Jordan Love my guy, but I think they'll have a lead and it does look like this could be a week where Josh Jacobs gets the rock as a closer.
Yeah, And that's kind of been the trend for Green Bay when they've led or even coming back in games like last week, They've started to lean a little bit more on the run going into the second half, and that is the one spot that the Rams have absolutely struggled is defending the run in the second half. I don't know if it's just they get tired fast. I don't know if it's personnel stuff, but they're giving up over five yards of carry about five and a quarter yards per carrie in the second half. Josh Jacobs has been kind of their go to guy. He is the ninth most carries in the NFL in the second half this year, and he averages four point eight five yards per carry, which is nineteenth out of forty nine guys. So I just think that if the game is close going into the second half, Green Bay, I think is going to lean a little bit more into ground and pound tire out that defensive line and get Josh Jacobs fired up.
I know you had a great data point that related to Mileak Neighbors, but obviously we're in the protocol. He's still not even working off to the side. Do you have any thoughts on the offense without Maleak Neighbors. I mean, it's quite scary. I mean I've been on here pounding the table too of the last three weeks for Wandale Robinson kind of joking around, it's like he's going to catch nine balls for sixteen yards, you know what I mean, like not not that far off, but for Wandale, like I want MO League neighbors out there.
I mean, what are they going to do if they don't have Molik neighbors this week? Basically?
Well, I think that the one spot that they can potentially lean into is their play action game. The Giants have leaned into it quite a bit, and Daniel Jones has done pretty solid. He has a third most play action pass attempts this year and he has you know, he's done okay. But Seattle tends to struggle against play action. Their linebackers, you know, seem to struggle with differentiating play run and getting back into their zone. So I think that's exactly where Wandale Robinson likes to operate, is right over the middle of the field on those crossers, you know, boot action stuff like that. I think that if neighbors is out what they probably lean on Wandale. I don't know how much they go slat in as much, but I think just on the slot right, getting play action going, just trying to keep Daniel Jones clean, make up for that offensive line a little bit. I think that you know, they're gonna push play action quite a bit, and I think that, you know, it's the one spot where I think they can pick apart Seattle's defenses just across the middle, and that lends to Wandale being the guy that they would lean on.
Yeah, makes sense. I mean, we do need Singletary out there, I think because he's out a practice early today, Like not panicking here. It's only a Wednesday, and Singletary is always available. Not always, I guess, but pretty much he's very available. We're talking with Stephen O'Rourke of Fantasy Points dot com, senior film analysts at Call Me Steve O seven on X.
And the Niners.
Obviously they're hanging in there, and Jordan Mason kind of fell out of the sky as an RB one for a lot of people this summer and looks like he'll stay hot again this week.
Maybe not a huge.
Huge passing game day this week against Arizona. And by the way, I Kyler Murray's schematic match was actually decent here, but Jordan Mason Steve O another big, big game.
Yeah, it just comes down to the Arizona defense's weaknesses against the run, which is mainly against zone concept. They're giving up about four point eight yards per carry against zone concept runs, and that's a lot of what San Francisco runs. So I anticipate that they're going to run a ton of zone concept right at Arizona, wear him down, probably push play action after that. But really it's going to be about getting Jordan Mason going, getting that run game going, and just you know, using that offensive line to just form a wall and push Arizona out of there. And they you know, we saw it against the Lions. I think we'll see it again this week against San Francisco, that they're going to kind of have their the will of the way against Arizona's defensive line in the run game.
Let's talk a little brock Bowers coming off first so so game of the year DeVante Adams. That situation probably helps. We've learned already. It's early, but Brock maybe not great against man you want him against z own heavy teams and all that, but he also rocks the slot quite a bit. What kind of data points do you have to potentially point us to a brock Bauers week.
Yeah, Well, Denver's been One thing that lends to it is that Denver's been bad or they're really good against the run. Sorry, Denver's been really good against the run. Las Vegas has been terrible running the ball, so that kind of gain that probably pushes that out early. And then also Denver has certain and Riley Moss who's playing well on the outside, and that's kind of containing targets going to outside receivers. When teams are playing against Denver, that kind of funnels everything towards your slots, tight ends and running backs. I think that it lends to a lot of checkdowns, a lot of slot targets, and that's where brock Bauers has been operating and I think will continue to operate against this. I can see him being kind of a target hog. As you know, it's a lot of you know not none of the outside receiver are open. Get him in a checkdown, you know, out of the slot or out of the in line tight end. It just I don't know how much how big the yardage is going to be, but I think that targets and receptions wise, he's going to have a big week.
Yeah, And it probably helps that if let's say DeVante's out, Jacoby Myers is probably going to be a race by Patzertan right.
Yeah, and Jacoby's Myers has had a little bit struggles of separating this year just to start out the year, and he probably gets the certain matchup as you know, that's their technical number one. I just think that both those and then they're what their other guy on the other side is going to be Trey Tucker. I think they get blanked out and the only place for Minshew to go is going to be brock Bowers.
By the way, not to throw you a curveball here, but did you did you happen to notice maybe a minimal data sample situation, but it looks like a pretty good schematic match for bow Knicks. I gotta tell you, I mean Courtland Sutton at the very least, because they don't have anything else going on here. At the very least. If it's a good schematic matchup for bow Knicks and in decent matchup on paper, I meant little Courtland Sutton this week, Steve.
Yeah, Courtland Sutton. I think they can. They'll be able to push downfield concepts a little bit more. Outside of Max Crosby, Las Vegas has strolled the pressure of the passer, and you know bo Nix has been decent when the when they keep the pocket clean for him. So I think that's going to allow them to push the ball a little bit more down the field, not that they do it that much, but it at least I think opens up more target volume and just more opportunity for Courtland Sutton. Because I don't see Las Vegas he holding out of the ball very often in this game. I think that Denver kind of might blank them out on defense, and it's just going to give a lot of opportunities for bow Nicks.
Now, our colleague Brett Whitefield is coming up in the next segment. I didn't want you to steal his thunder on Burrow Burrow, Steve, So.
I'll ask you this.
One of the bigger totals on the board, top five Ravens Bengals fifty point five.
Would you go over that number?
Yeah, I'd go over since He's defense hasn't been great in the one spot where Baltimore's defense has been weak, that's where that's where Burrows is gonna go after.
So I'm going over there he is.
That's Stephen O'Rourke from Fantasy Points Data at call me Steve O seven on X and coming up next. Thanks Steve Brett Whitefield Fantasy Points dot Com Here on prop Points.
You're watching prop Points with the guru John Hanson on visim please Sports Betty Network.
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Here on Vison.
If you or someone you know has a problem with getting props. Right then, we encourage you highly to watch this program every afternoon from two to three Eastern and listen to people like Brett Whitefield, who is on the line with us now. He is the owner, part owner and COO of Fantasy Points and Fantasy Points Data. He's on the X machine at B G. Whitefield formerly of PFF. What is up, Brett? Good afternoon. How about that data through four weeks? Baby, it's looking good.
How are you? I'm not even sure you need me on the show. You could just handle this yourself.
John, Yeah, I know, I know, no, because you are your stat nerd and I say that lovingly. And you're also you know, the first time I met you, I could gather spending a couple of days with you in mobile.
I'm like this guy like breathes football like you.
You must have been playing with a pigskin like in the crib something like that. But let's get into the analysis here. We're wasting time. We want to move onward and help people out. And big match up here over in the AFC North as the two and two Ravens travel to take on the one in three Bengals. I know you've got some info and analysis on both sides of the field. We'll start with the Bengals and Burrow. I know he's got some protection issues. I'm a little worried about that at right tackle, but I think Burrow the vibes are pretty good. I feel like he's feeling it. The running game has been pretty good.
What do you have on Burrow.
I'm guessing it has to do with the middle of the field because we've been harping on that with the Ravens defense.
Yeah, I'd be remiss if I didn't start this conversation by talking about how much better Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor, for that matter, operate when they have both t Higgins and Jamar Chase on the field.
And since t Higgins has.
Been back, Burrow looks like that MVP candidate we know him to be, so lines up with the great matchup here. He leads the league in passing over the middle and completion percentage over expectation over the middle, and that's like the short to intermediate part of the field. The Ravens allowed the most yards in the league over the middle of the field, so you nail that, John. They also just allow big plays in general. Most big plays allowed in the NFL thirty three plays of fifteen yards or more, they have the third highest yards per perception allowed the Jamar If we want to go match a specific here, Jamar Chase weeks one and two without Tea on the field as eight out was just six point eight. Since t has been backed, that adops jumped to eleven point nine. He is back to being Jamar Chase. We love that T Higgins leads the team in target shares since returning. He lines up wide eighty percent of the time, and the Ravens are allowing the ninth most Fantasy points to players lined up out wide. This is just a good matchup all around for this passing offense. I expect at least five six explosive plays in this game that could really boost Jamar Chase and T Higgins stat lines at the end of the day, Joe Burrow being the main benefactor of that. So I love all three of these guys as they're all you know, play their props the all.
They're all slam dunks for me this.
Week and you nailed by the way last week Cincinnati Carolina as potentially being one of the highest totals on the board, and I don't even know if it was, But what again, sixty almost, So you nailed that Ravens Bengals fifty point five.
I feel pretty good about that over.
Right, Yeah, I'm loving the over, especially because we have a matchup on the other side of the ball we can exploit, and that's Derrick Henry versus Cincinnati run defense.
And you know, I said it what week two?
The second half of the Week two game, the Ravens figured out their rushing attack with Derrick Henry, they simplified it. They went to the zone heavy, duo heavy scheme where they're allowing those those new offensive linemen to get double teams on the offensive line.
It's really worked for them.
Cincinnati is allowing a fifty seven percent success rate again duo run concepts. Duo was basically the only thing the Ravens ran last week, minus one trap play against Buffalo in which they just beat Buffalo's teeth in Cincinnati's having very similar run defense woes and what their Sheldon rankins is beat up, Beaja Hills, beat up. This is a really rough situation here in Cincinna Rundee. So I like the over for sure because I think both of these matchups have massive exploitations available.
So you're not looking at Derek Henry and the success that he's had recently, you're not thinking that it's unhealthily a function of matchup like Dallas.
You know, obviously they've been getting run all over the Raiders.
I guess, I guess last week was probably a good litmus test against Buffalo.
Yeah, it's it's somewhat matchup.
I mean, I think the gaudy numbers are because of the matchup, right, But I think he's performing well. You see that acceleration. So early in the season, they were running this power counter stuff, which Henry, for as big as he is, he's got great acceleration, but not very good start stoppability. So forcing him to read polling blockers and stuff, it's just not really what he's good at. I like getting them on that straight line and letting him attack downhill.
We're talking with Brett Whitefield of Fantasy Points Data on the X Machine at BG Whitefield and formerly of PFF, and you know data is all You're all about it, but you're all about football as well. Hey, justin fields this year he's actually all about football. You know, I actually said watching his body language, you know, in Chicago his first year, I'm like, this guy didn't even want to be on the field. And it's been it was awful. It's way better this year. We have maybe found the right marriage of coach, system and player, as Fields is completing seventy over seventy percent of his passes for a pretty damn solid I think it's six seven point six YPA. Clicking with our guy, George Pickens. What do you have on Fields?
And this one? It didn't necessarily look.
Like a great schematic matchup, but you know, the Carolina defense is really struggling this year.
Yeah. Is Pittsburgh not playing Dallas this week? Oh? Oh, I'm sorry, I got I got that wrong.
You know what this thing with Fields with the Bears, Oh my god, the Cowboys defense?
Now, what do you think about that?
Because I didn't think that was a great schematic matchup. We could get tray Von Diggs on George Pickens. So again, it's the point remains, even though I got the damn team wrong, because when I see the Bears logo, I think Justin Field still, but what do you think of Justin Fields?
How he's playing this year?
And then this matchup, this week, because schematically that didn't look unbelievable to me.
Yeah, I won't.
I won't waste your guys the time by telling you how much of a Justin Fields doubter I have been. But he has proven me wrong so far this year. I've been very impressed with what I've seen on tape. The accuracy has come back, the stuff we saw at Ohio State where he's just whipping the ball around Don Downfield, just making those big time throws that is back and him and Pickens have this uncanny connection that reminds me a little bit of early stage Aaron Rodgers DeVonta Adams, where.
It's they do, they do a little look.
At the line of scrimmage and next thing you know, they're ripping off a twenty five yard back shoulder. I mean, it's it's beautiful. And Dallas doesn't have Micah Parsons or DeMarcus Lawrence this week. I think this is setting up really, really nicely for Field to just continue his success and really take hold of that starting QB job in Pittsburgh.
Oh yeah, I mean, come on, come on, Mike Tomlin. I mean I guess that's look, maybe that's somewhat of a motivational type of thing.
Don't hand them the job.
But by the way, while we have you here, I mean, I know Nausey's really struggling. I know they just put the guard on ir. They might get say them all o back though this week. I mean, any hope for the Steeler run game and certainly this the Dallas Cowboys. This a good let miss test here as well against a defense that was bad against the run with Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
Yeah, I'm so. I want to be a believer, right, you know me. I'm a big nausey guy. I howed Devin Singletary last week on the show and was wildly wrong about that. Dallas completely controlled the line of scrimmage, and he didn't he didn't have a good game. So I'm a little skittish to say this is a great spot for Ninja Harris because I feel like maybe Dallas figured some things out on their interior.
Mazzie Smith was bawling out.
But man, there probably isn't a better game for them to get that right than this one right here.
So all right, all right, I know you you also like Josh Jacobs, probably game script getting the volume late, but what do you have on Jerome Ford? Because Nick Chubb is kind of back on the man. He might be activated in a week or two. But you know, good matchup for Ford against DC overall.
Yeah, DC's run defense is pitiful and they've had some good game script to stop them from getting gashed.
I don't think this will be one of them.
They ranked dead last in EPA, so fifty of the runs against them go for positive EPA five point twenty five yards per carry against Ford also gets seventy seven of the carry share when the team is trailing.
Sets up for a four game for sure.
Great stuff here from Brett Whitefield on the X Machine at b G. Whitefield. I remember that Justin Fields is no longer a Chicago Bear. Uh well, we'll get better with that.
Great stuff, Brett. We'll talk in next week and we're back.
We'll end the show with data.
You're washing Crop Points with the Guru, John Hampson on FE send please Sports Betting Network.
It is the final segment of this Wednesday edition of prop Points. Here on Vison, we thank you for tuning in per usual and per usual coming up at the top of the hour, Adam Shine making it rain but we've got about ten minutes to try and throw out some more actionable data points, and let's take a look here. As we've kind of evolved into doing every Wednesday.
It's kind of midweek.
We're kind of looking for good content and certainly still wrap my head around all the matchups. Of course, it's still somewhat early in the process, but one of the first things I look at would be the wide receiver corner matchups. We've got a great tool over at Fantasy points dot com that lines it all up for you, and it shows you all the production that the receivers are getting and the corners are giving up the percentage of the targets on the corners. For example, Let's get into the notable matchups wide receiver corner MA for Week five the good and we'll start with Romeo Dobbs for the Green Bay Packers. Should see a lot of Trae Davius White, who, for example, is giving up zero point five five Fantasy points per route run. That is the most in the National Football League. So don't be surprised if Romeo Dops does something of note. Got DJ Moore on this list. This is not a shadow or travel situation. This is more about alignment numbers, and you know he'll see a lot of J. C. Horn, who is the thirteenth most targeted cornerback in football. So DJ Moore is doing the best he can with Caleb Williams least he's producing unlike Roma Donza and Keenan Allen. So I think we keep using DJ Moore. You drafted him probably as your two. Do what I do, and you have your own mental depth chart. So now DJ Moore unfortunately is your three. Yeah, drafted him as a two, but he's really a three for now. Maybe Caleb Williams shows some signs of life. How about Brandon Ayuk against the Arizona Cardinals and Starling Thomas, who is giving up zero point three to nine Fantasy points per route run that is the fifth most in football, So maybe a little Brandon Ayuk action. He's been a little underwhelming, well a lot underwhelming. Maybe the usage has been a little different too, so they're gonna figure it out. I still think Brandon Ayuk is a good Bilow guy and a trade for I mean, they did just pay him a fortune, so maybe he's pouting a little bit.
Maybe he's not happy with the routes that he's.
Running, but they're still gonna throw him the ball because they just opened up the wallet for a Brandon Ayuk.
How about a little dk Metcalf.
This kind of pains me a little bit because I'm a little bit of a Dk Metcalf hater, But when the matchup looks good, and I love him for this, When the matchup looks good as it did last week, he comes through so looking good here against often Cordell Flott, who was lining up in the slot, but now he's back outside and he's pretty giving. He has improved, I will say this year he's improved last year. He's really getting picked on a lot. And then we also have my guy, Khalil Shakir, who should see a decent amount of Jalen Petrie. If you remember last week, I loved Christian Kirk in this matchup and he crushed. So Jalen Peatrie targeted the six most times, giving up zero point three seven Fantasy points per route run.
I have a few other positive ones too that I will get to.
Deontae Johnson against Chicago should avoid.
Jalen Johnson a lot.
They don't travel Jalen Johnson, so we'll see a lot of Tyreek Stevenson.
That's a pretty good matchup.
Za Flowers based on alignment numbers, should see a lot of Daxton Hill up against the Bengals. Pretty good matchup. I think they'll have to throw it a little bit. More good news for z Steph Diggs against Cam Lewis for the Bills, and Steph Diggs lines up inside a lot these days. Buffalo's little suspect in the middle of the field. Plus it's a revenge game for Steph Digs. We've got Alec Pierce. Don't be shocked if Alec Pierce is streaking into the end zone on a big play from Anthony Richson or Joey Flacco. He'll see a lot of Monteric Brown for the Jags. They do play a lot of Manda Man and you know you can shake Monteric Brown. He gives up a lot of production Pop Douglas if you're digging real date and we went deep for this one. Cater Kohu against Miami, that's a pretty good matchup.
How about this.
Amari Cooper Man, it's I'd love to do back a Mariy Cooper. I mean, he's the data is good, like he's getting a lot of first red targets, good route share and all that. But the quarterback isn't very good. But he does get a very good matchup against DC. I know Kyler Murray didn't get it done in this matchup last week, but he'll see a lot of Benjamin Saint Us And when you're going up against Saint Just you have a lot more juiced yourself. How about a little to two at well if you're digging that deep. He'll see a lot of Eric Stokes against Green Bay. It's pretty good matchup. And then Ceedee Lamb. Of course, Bishop is the inside corner for the Steelers. I'm sure they'll move CD all over the place, but a pretty good matchup there for Ceedee Lamb. Now, on the negative Nelly side of the equation, let's take a look at some of the bad matchups in terms of wide receiver corners. Obviously, we start with Tyreek Hill against Christian Gonzalez.
That's a problem and we were.
Just talking off the air, Michael Cohen and I our producer about that matchup or early last year. I mean Gonzales looked like a stud. I don't remember what week he got hurt.
It was early.
I was ready to call him a stud after like two games last year, Christian Gonzales.
He has given up a little bit here.
Zero point twenty seven fantasy points per route run, but still a very very tough matchup. And Tyreek Hill has been a tough go What is the wide receiver sixty seven the last three weeks?
Mike Evans.
I was incorrect on Mike last week, pretty much right about Goddard or Godwin, but incorrect. I can't get them all right. But I went back and I looked he has not crushed against aj Torell, and I think it's a travel situation this week.
Big Mike. Aj Torell is the.
Fourth least targeted corner in football, and he also gives up juster point one eight fantasy points per route run. Big Mic last year didn't do well in the matchup. He scored twenty two total fantasy points in two games, So could be should be another Godwin game as he sees a lot of d Alford. We talked earlier about Garrett Wilson. He is on the bad list, should see a lot of Stefan Gilmore. So hate to say it because I'm I was high on Garrett Wilson this summer could be another Ana Lazard game. He'll see a lot of Josh Mattellis or and or how about a little Tyler Conklin revenge game against Minnesota this week another negative matchup. As much as I love George Pickens in general this summer and last week, this week, he'll see a lot of Trayvon Diggs, who is quite stingy, giving up just zero point one seven Fantasy points per round run that is top ten out there in the NFL. And then also Jordan Addison will see a lot of Sauce Gardner. And you don't want any part of sauce. No one wants sauce. They don't like sauce anymore. They're like all their food bone dry. Because he is only being targeted eight point nine percent of the time, which is unbelievable, and he has only given up zero point one three Fantasy points per route run, third least in football. Unbelievable job this year by Sauce Gardner. And speaking of unbelievable, stay tuned to Vson here after prop points, it's Making a Rain with Adam Shine starting at three eastern, and then it is follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Polly Howard at four pm on today's show, former NFL quarterback Rich Gannon, as well as ESPN reporter Sal Pallantonio, a couple of Philly guys with Adam Shine here on Vson at the top of the hour, Well, we are up against the final into the program and I will end it, and we'll try and do this every single week with a very early and quick schematic look at Thursday Night football, and I'm still looking through all the data, looking through all the numbers. We just talked about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so you got that going forwards, probably going to be another Chris Godwin game. I want to see if Ray Ray McCleod plays, by the way, because he actually has the best matchup on paper. It is a slightly negative schematic matchup for both quarterbacks though for Kirk Cousins and for Baker Mayfield, so we might be leaning under on this one. Not the greatest schematic matchup for the wide receivers as well. Last week we love Drake London because of the matchup. Well, you want Drake London against man heavy teams, that's not the Bucks, So not the greatest schematic matchup.
Here. Believe it or not, it is for Godwin.
The only other good schematic matchup I see here is Kate Aughten, who did come through last week. So from now until when we sign on tomorrow, I'll be thinking about the props, which ones am I going to go with? And the Thursday Night special. Until then, we thank you for tuning in. We thank Michael Cohen for producing this program. I'm John Hanson. We'll catch him manyana here on prop points on vison