VSiN Best BetsDave Ross and Hill Hill saddle up for the remaining of Live Bet and talk about the UFC fights wrapping up in Abu Dhabi. They discuss teams making a run for the postseason in the MLB. Danny Vietti joined the show to give his thoughts on some teams to make the postseason in the MLB. Lastly, Dave and Will talk about odds to be the wildcard seed in the NFL.
This is Live Bet Saturday on v sends these sports betting and work.
We begin this edition of Live Bet Saturday Day.
Ross and Will Hill coming at check from Connecticut and Las Vegas, respectively.
It is packed here at CIRCA.
On a Saturday afternoon for me, evening for you and in Abu Dhabi. Isn't Monday already? I don't know because we don't have universal time zones. But here's what I do know.
Right now, Will Hill, we begin one of the hardest practices of all. Do you know what that is? The practice?
The hardest practice of all. I'm not sure.
I will say for people that are live betting, this show under on universal time zone mentions cash is cash is early. So if you had under sixty seconds, you want to know it was juice to the under.
But now you got to tell me, so what do you mean?
It's one of the challenging practice, one of the toughest things that I think we do for a live betting show, right and we've got a main event going on right now in Abu Dhabi doing co hosting the show with you, So I got to be on point when I'm working with you, because I know there could be singers coming at me. There's numbers you require math a lot in the show and judging a fight in Abu Dhabi, and by the way.
Oh right, that's that's the hardest factory.
Like how can I be like I can't sit here and say we got robbed on that fight. I can't judge it because you and I are doing a show live as this is going on live bets Saturday. Right here's what I would advise, if you can look at these numbers. We're in the We're in the fourth round right now in Abu Dhabi and this is the main event. Corey Sanahagan on ABC, by the way, will against that. We call him cousin Umar umar and AMaGA Metov because he is the cousin of the great Habib Normaka Metov. And what I love about this fight is again, I'm not judging it, America. So if you're listening to me, I'm not gonna say, oh, Sanagan absolutely won this round.
You're not gonna enough absolutely won that round. Here's what I know. It's super close.
It's super close, and like we talked about it last night, and by the way, we're gonna Dan Vreewin on later on in the show to talk what he's seeing here, what we're gonna see in the upcoming pay per views for UFC.
But what I do know this fight is highly.
Competitive and for a three dollar betting underdog, I played Sanagan and I said it all week. The reason why was a price point play. Right, Well, at some points, will you're gonna make price point plays and say this number in a combat sport, individual sport could be even golf that's not combat, but still individual, we get the numbers out of whack. And that's what I thought, because it's Nirmaga Metof, He's undefeated, and all of a sudden you look up and it's like Corey's stuff and takedowns, and Nirmaga Metov's not having his.
Way that he's had with everybody else. Sanhagen, you're ready for this? Will this happened in the third round?
Sanhagen has already landed more significant strikes against umar Namaga Metov for all of nemark Medow's career opponents combined in one fight in three rounds. That's how competitive Corey Sandagan is. So I'm not saying live bet Sandhagen. What I'm saying is this is no longer going to be a massive underdog here because it looks like it's nip tuck.
We'll see what the judges say it is in Nabu Dhabi.
And I'm not saying that that means that they're gonna go for cousin Umar. What i will say is crowds influence judges sometimes, and I think it's sometimes it's it's almost like it's subliminal, right, Like if this fight was in Denver, where Sanagan's from, the pops would.
All be for Corey and it could affect it the other way.
So I'm not suggesting that that is somehow nefarious. What I'm suggesting is that's human element, and when you have fights that go to the judges, you do have to take that into account sometimes.
But I've always said this, well I'll say it again.
If I'm going to the judges, potentially we've got about seven and a half minutes to get there. I'd rather be on the side of the three hour betting underdog verse is the five dollars betting favorite.
Yeah, And did you take this into account when you did your handiccap, because it's look, it's why you know home court advantage in basketball is worth Yeah, a few points and you get to a game seven, you figure, hey, they're probably not going to call that third or fourth foul on Yo kitch, where if he's on the road maybe they would call it.
So that's that's not different from any other part.
Totally, and I think that's exactly the right idea here.
So you know, I'm just I'm excited to see that somebody's actually pushing Umar and a maga madoff.
And one more background on this. This was a fight that was supposed to happen.
Umar had a back out because of an injury, so Sanahagan had a ten month camp. He doubled down in the camp. It's another reason why I liked him in this fight to at least be right there, and he is right there right now. He doubled down on this, and you can sometimes I will when I do a show with you.
I know how prepared you are for a show. So nothing's I can't sneak.
Stuff by the goal, right, That's That's what I've seen so far from Sanhagen.
Like Umar has not been able to.
Get stuff by that, he's going to get by on lesser opponents. This is a guy here, sing Hagan, that's giving them everything you can handle. Late takedown here in the fourth round from the MAGA medof not doing anything with it, which he has not been able to do anything with these takedowns.
But again it's subjective. If you go to the cards and we're about five minutes away from the judge of scorecard here in the main event of Abu Dhabi, did you get up and watch any any of the Olympics. Did you watch?
No?
No.
I will say one thing quickly on the UFC. It's somewhat unrelated, but somewhat related. I was just out doing some errands and I was I just happened to be by the spot I watched UFC one hundred at fifteen years ago as.
A Buffalo wild Wings. I was just in the mall. It was right where I was, you know, an hour ago, and I just you.
Ever get these flashbacks and you think, like, where's your life called? How is fifteen years going back? Because I believe it was summer of two thousand. I was like right around this time of year, and I just you get put back and you think I've been fifteen years have gone by since then. I don't know if you ever have these moments where you just go through those things. But it's just shocking to me, like I remember where I was and you know, watching it and to think that's fifteen years ago and just being the same spot was like goodness. You know you always hear when you're younger, time fly, you know, life goes by time, time flies, but it is certainly true and.
You can blink in like ten fifteen years ago. It's crazy.
Oh I'm glad I'm not the only one, because sometimes you go, wait, is am I am I losing my mind?
Or is this deja vu? Was it a deja vu type?
Think?
Were you like whoa I was right here? Or just a flashback to where you were as a younger man.
It was a little bit of both, where you just get taken back to the moment and you think, I can I remember it so vividly, it can't be fifteen years ago.
I think that's the thing where sometimes you just remember it so vividly it's so long ago.
It doesn't add up to like, wait, I shouldn't remember this this well, it's just it is a little bit scary, like you just had to, you know, not to give us sit here and give life advice. People don't just kind of have to enjoy the moment sometimes of life where you look back, then fifteen years go by just so quickly.
I have to I sit corrected.
I don't judge fights, but I just saw the live odds going on the fifth round. Saan Hagan's now a nine dollars bedding undernoe. So what I So that shows you that what I see and what judges see or or what the perception is, these aren't judges right.
With these live odds. This with the bookmakers.
Judging awards, so it's like judging the award markets. Are these live odds usually sharp or not necessarily?
No, That's the amazing thing about it. Sometimes you go, oh my goodness, guy. We've had fighters, Dan Money, lat Miller, our producer here, we talked about this all the time. You'll have a fight close, you know, the favorite minus four fifteen, the dog gets his hand raised. So it's not an exact science, but I mean, he's minus eighteen hundred now.
And they're not going to med off. I do believe.
From again, from the kind of we're doing both things at once, it did feel like he won that fourth round maybe the most convincing around that he's won, and this was the test because nobody had pushed him the championship rounds before, nobody had taken him to the fourth and fifth, and here Corey Sanagan.
Is doing just that.
I thought Corey could make the argument won the first two, but it could very well be, because I'm not judging, it could very well be that Nermargo Medoff has won the last two and we'll see what this fifth round looks like. But the live odds would indicate that cousin Umar is going to remain undefeated here with three and a half minutes to go to wrap up this fight card in Abu Dhabi. And the other thing that was really funny about this card is, and this is something else in the text chain we were talking about a little bit too, you could see that Dana White has really been kind of harsh on his fighters and his company in recent events. Right like I might cut Mohammed makay Have even though he's undefeated, because I don't like his style, because he doesn't finish people. The first six fights on this fight card all went to the judges, and I went, oh my god, Like if Dana White isn't gonna lose it, he's gonna be like, man, give me power, slap, like, can nobody finish anybody anymore?
Why don't we have all these fights going into the distance. And I just wonder.
Then we had some sub subsequent knockouts and the comin event charl Bullet did go the distance there. But every time this happens, now, I wonder if the fighters like, oh my god, the boss is not going to be happy, Like if if you and I had a hypothetical we had a terrible show.
Well, let's just say a host missed the beginning of this.
You got to forgive yourself with this, You forget me.
I feel bad about that.
And then we call we get called into the office, right, and the boss is like, like, will.
I need ten winners from you tomorrow or else?
Sure? Right?
Like you think these fighters feel that pressure, like, man, I Dana might cut me.
And I'm winning fights. I'm not even losing.
I'm winning fights, and yet the boss is putting us on notice that if you ain't exciteing the fan base, you might be on the chopping block.
I don't I have a hard time getting in the mind of a fighter. I have to imagine when you're in the heat of bat. All you can think about. Your impulse is to just win. I can't think like it's just so hard to win and you're fighting, you know you're you're gonna get removed from your consciousness if you just.
Make one wrong move.
I can only think you go in there with when it all cost, That can be your only mentality.
But again, I've never been in the of the offense, so who knows.
Fifth takedown was just landed for Umar and knocka metof. Like to rescind everything I said off the top of the show, it looks like young Umar. And by the way, these guys are about the same age. It's not like we look at this like, what's Umar eighteen?
It is like twenty nine.
See he's not like a kid, right, So it's Thermaga Metof. It's the last name this is. He's supposed to be the Nermaka metoff of this bandam weeight division. He very well could be. People call it you know it's Umar time. It really could be in the bantamwet division. But I will say this, Corey's not going to get his hand RAI raised here in the next minute ten. But that was a game effort and to go twenty five minutes and go different time zones that I always kid about here in the show, but that's still is that's a real deal, like going what you know, Denver, Colorado, Abu Dhabi fighting in the middle of the night over there and the afternoon for us, but middle of the night there and putting on a really good showing in defeat. It's going to be in defeat. I cannot imagine he gets his hand raise now with the way this fifth, fifth round is going, it still shows me that Corey Sanagan, although he's never been a title holder in this bandonmweight.
Class, he is right there.
He's right there, and there are guys that are very close and never get to the mountaintop. I hope he doesn't turn out to be that guy in his career. But you know, sometimes I'll say, hey, I'm going to lose that three dollar bet, will but he fought for my money. That's all I can ask man. He gave me twenty five minutes, and that's why it was a price point play for me that I said, he's going to test cousin Umar for the first time in his career. But guess what, he passed the test. Cousin Umar remarker Meto is going to get his hand raised. We'll make an official when we come back. And when we come back, talk about some baseball, and let's talk about some golf and maybe some numbers that we look for in the final round.
Who's going to get the goal in golf? People?
That's next year Live Bet Saturday.
This is Live Bet Saturday on v Send these sports betting n words.
Our twenty twenty four Vson College Football Betting Guide is available right now. This guy is your ultimate resource for the upcoming college football season, including previews of all one hundred and thirty four teams, a preseason top twenty five power ratings, proven betting systems, and much more. Signed now receive both college football and NFL betting guides, plus full Vson Pro access to our daily pro picks, twenty four to seven.
Video, exclusive data like our betting splits all.
The way through the Super Bowl, and an early bird discount price of just one hundred and seventy five dollars.
Or you can sign up on a monthly.
Subscription get your first thirty days for only nineteen dollars to see everything Vson has to help up your betting game. Don't miss out on these preseason deals. Visit Vison dot com slash subscribe to sign up today. That's Vsin dot com slash subscribe. Back alongside Will Hilton Ross here with you as we continue live.
That's Saturday. It is official. Say again, that's one.
You know that's good for Go ahead?
Sorry, we well, who won the Nats. I'll beat the Browers. Let's go.
I'm not gonna check on the red Can we check on the Reds? What are the right thirteen? Thirteen out or something?
That's that's it, just thirteen.
But if you're a Cubs fan, you lose what we are four to one late today to sing loss, you lose that game five four, Like I'm looking at the odds like forty to one's forty five to ones and Cubs and Reds to win this division, like these were two teams, like you know, we we We're gonna talk about the contest later on the program as well. We had the Reds like nine to one like a month ago.
They're like forty five one. This is a joke.
At least the Brewers did lose to the Nats, and that is good news for single lists. I mean is that Pittsburgh. It just feels like a foregone conclusion. I'm not even excited about Brewers Losses. What's what's going on with me?
I know, I thought I could get you riled up. I thought you get your worked up. I thought you get you peeking at the red odds or something. But uh no, they've they've hurt you beyond repair.
I guess you're just.
They've taken it out out of my comfort zone.
By the way, in the break, I was having trouble logging into the computer in the first segment, sure, like you're not old yet, but like I thought, I was putting in the correct password. And then Isaiah comes out and he's like, I mean like, it's like, it's like your son. I don't have a son, but like if Isaiah could, he could be my son. Theoretically, sure, his dad's better than me. But like he comes out and has to log me into the computer. I'm helpless at this point, I'm like an invalid.
This is terrible.
Yeah, I mean, well, you were missing uh not to give the pass, or you were missing a digit that's all just one.
I couldn't see it.
It's like at the end of Rocky three, when Apollo and Uh and Rocky getting in the ring. No cameras right, just the two of them. And what's he says? Says, it's too bad we got to get old. Just keep punching apollow. That's what I said to Isaiah.
And the Cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon.
There is a betting tip in there, though, be careful putting in those bets, because we've all done it. If you make h a day, a week, a year, we've all done it. It to help us feeling. Sometimes it works in your favorite It doesn't seem like it ever does, but hey, you go to check the account, it looks a little light.
Oh no, I bet the dolphins. I meant to bet the chiefs, or I meant to take the points.
I took the money line, or you know, you get the idea, bet the wrong amount, bet the wrong side, the wrong prop whatever. These menus are expansive. You're fast, you're doing something. Maybe while you're driving, you shouldn't be careful double check your bets. Little pro tip there, because it happens, and to help us feeling.
Either wear your glasses or have Isaiah b or proxy.
One of those two things and that will safeguard any missed digits that you put into the computer. By the way, Danny Via he's going to join us in the next segment from CBS. Always love talking baseball with Danny Another Dan Dan Rieland's going to join us in now number two. Wrap up what we just saw from a betting perspective and look ahead at what's coming up in the UFC.
And then Brian Crowell is going to join us again. We had Brian on a couple of weeks ago.
It's going to be great to get his thoughts on what's happening overseas. Olympic golf in Perry and this is Legoff National and I've been watching this all three days. I really do believe maybe it's because Tokyo XANDERSCHOFFI won the gold there four years ago. No crowds. That was COVID twenty sixteen. If you remember that one. Do you remember the twenty sixteen Olympics at all? Because I really don't vaguely remember Justin Rose winning it for England. When they brought back golf to become an Olympic sport again, it hadn't been since like the nineteen hundreds, early nineteen hundreds and that was the zekavirus. I even I barely even have a recollection of that. It's like Jason Day didn't play in that one in twenty sixteen when he's world number one, and he said, looking back, I wish I'd played, but you know, we all get freaked out. All that's fine, he freaked out you out. But those were the last two. So these weird Olympic feels this one whell will. It feels like a real legit, big time golf tournament, and the players feel it. And they're talking about thirty five thousand people there walking the grounds, and Michael Phelps is out there, He's a big golf guy. Steph Curry's out there. I mean, they're going to watch the best golfers in the world. You and I yesterday on Vson Tonight discussed a number that we thought was playable if you didn't have anything in pocket in any of the leaders for a guy that was too off the lead coming into play today, and we said that was John rom of Spain at five to one. Now you look up two to one, two to one, Ramer is right there with the x Man trying to go back to back for gold. Medals in the twenty twenty Games. Now twenty twenty four is x Ander Shoffley? And again Will It's kind of what we talked about yesterday and it held true again today.
Xander doesn't remove himself from the.
Equation, right, I accuse Rory McElroy, as great a player as he is, sometimes early on a Sunday, he'll take himself out of contention.
Right early double bogie.
You look up and you don't see Rory again on the coverage until the eighteenth hole.
Right.
I don't know that Zander's gonna go away.
But it was a great question that was asked to the Golf Channel panel after the round was completed, and the question, as opposed to Brandon Chamblee, who's the more intimidating golfer tomorrow? If you're the chasers, is it x Man or is it rom And there's so many different ways you can go with this. But if you're Scottie Cheffer ten under, Rory McRoy ten under, you're four back.
Right.
If you're a Hiteki matsu Yama didn't have a good round today, he's eleven under his three back. If you're Tommy Fleetwood, you're only one back, but you're going to be in that final.
Group with those two guys.
Who's the alpha in the golf betting parlance here in your mind? Will because I don't know that there's a wrong answer, but I think I do know what the correct answer is.
What's your correct answer? And by the way, did you fire on Sheffer? Because we kicked that around eleven to one, twelve the one he's now fourteen to one. I promised everybody a winner, but I said I'm not going to bet it so everyone else can win, because if I bet it, if probably winners. Just haven't had any look with golf. And I played it very sparingly. But it hasn't gone well for your boy over here. But did you get it on Chef? I feel like, let me guess, I haven't talked to you about this. I didn't get any text about Scheffer doing well, doing poorly, nothing, So my guess is, since you haven't texted, you didn't bring it up in the first few minutes in that district dissertation, my guess that you didn't bet it.
It's a great scene in Top Gun nineteen eighty six where Maverick wants in right an Iceman is just holding the position.
And finally they just said ice fire or clear. I cleared.
I did not fire. I couldn't pull the trigger on it, so I cleared out of the way. I left the area of attack open for anybody else that wanted it. So I got out of the jetwash there for anybody else that wanted to get on Scotty. If you want to get on on Scottie, you can still get him today. Again, he's only four back. He's fourteen to one.
Remember yesterday.
Here's the thing normally on a normal and I wanted to get your thoughts on this because this is a different handicap than a traditional Sunday handicap. If you told me Scotti Scheffer's four back at a major championship at the Players anywhere, he was five back Exander at the Players and ran him down that Sunday.
I remember because that Exander ticket.
And if you said this is any other tournament, I'd say I'd play that because they don't care about money, right, they care about winning. Here's the difference. It's a medal. You can get third place, and I heard see what that say, So that changes the mentality of the hand, and you're not getting money in fourth place, nobody's getting anything.
You're not getting any money, and.
Only three people are walking away with anything in this thing, and that's silver, gold and bronze, of course. So I look at it and I go, I wonder if Scotty's gonna grind for potentially a bronze and.
Be okay with that?
Is his first Olympics, you know what I mean. Now, Xander, on the other hand, he wants to defend that crown. That's a big deal to him. I think Romer feels like man as long as I'm gonna get a medal, But I'm playing for gold now because I'm tired for the lead. Scotty and Rory are different handicaps because I almost they'll never admit it.
But I think they'd be content with the bronze. Is that fair?
And so that's why at fourteen one they might not take as unnecessary rising eighteen. And by the way, the eighteenth hole at Le Guelf is playing to be the toughest hole on the golf court. It's gonna be riveting coming down the stretch for the leaders because there's gonna be decisions to make on eighteen.
If you missed the fairway. Then it's like you got water everywhere.
So like let's say hypothetically Scotty comes in there and he's he's two shots back, but he's a shot out of a bronze.
He might not hit the normal hero shot. You see what I'm saying.
He might play the way up and play for the par and hope that that's good enough to get on the bronz. So that's the one. Normally I would jump at fourteen to one. I absolutely would jump at it. And again he shaved off a stroke. He was five back this time. Yesterday he's only four back. Rory was thirty three to one. Didn't you say you saw thirty three to one in wards? Yes, fourteen fourteen to.
One not bad.
Let me ask you, ye bogie three round for round four, Scheffler is ten to one, and they have props for all these golfers. Scheffer's tend to one to go bogie free. Lowest score of round four. Scheffler is also the short shot at ten to one. And I don't know how the of course I've been playing a hole in one for anyone they to hold one tomorrow was nine to one. Any of those markets interesting for anybody.
You know, it's interesting the hole in one market because before the tournament was two to one, so we haven't had one in the first three rounds. So now you're like, to me, that would be if I was gonna take a fire on anything, I'd play the nine to one. Again, I don't know what the setups are gonna be for those part threes, and they've been tough. Really, You've got almost you know, fly it in because you're not seeing a lot of movement on these greens. They're not like the United States greens where you spin them back. They're like a yo yo and they can you know, throw behind the pin and spin spin it back. You're not seeing a lot of that. They don't have a lot of funnel pins.
Over here in France.
They make you earn it if you're gonna get that hole in one. Don't like the Scotti play though, at ten to one for a bogie free round, because again I think at some point he's.
Gonna push it a little.
Bit, and if he pushes it too much gonna make a bogie, then he might back off and say I really third place would be good enough for me. Okay, we're gonna talk with Danny Diiatti next here.
I'm lied that Saturday, this is live that Saturday, I'll be said these sports Betty him work.
We continue live Thatt Saturday. Dave Ross here at Circus Sports Fabulous, Las Vegas, Nevada. He is the King of Connecticut. Will Hill and Will It is a pleasure each and every week to talk to Danny Vietti. He is a social media manager at CBS Sports. Follow him on exit. Danny Vietti joins us now in the Progressive guest line and Danny, we were just kind of kicking around. Nice win for the Yanks today. They have struggled though a little bit at the stadium this year in the Bronx going forward, and this is something Weill and I talk about all the time with the Yankees and the Orioles, and it feels like literally weekly it changes. Now that the deadline is come and gone, which team do you think will put their best foot forward and finally put the raps on the al East.
It's really just about staying healthy to this funch. We've kind of discussed it before, I'm sure, but you know we've seen stretches of eighty games, one hundred games with a similar roster, albeit now with Loon Soto. We've seen this team dominate for eighty two hundred games. We saw in twenty twenty two there was nobody going to beat this team, and then the injuries mounted and everything kind of fell aparr and then they were scrapping. You know, they're putting things together the last minute to try and save their season. They ended up falling short in the wild Card game. Last season. They were under five hundred after the All Star break after being over five hundred. So their second half, at least recently tell us that they're not a good second half team. I think a lot of that is just due to the fact that their players have a lengthy laundry list injury history. Let this see it just easy to get healthy. They do have one of the tougher remaining schedules in baseball. In fact, they'd the second or excuse me, easiest second easiest strength to schedule for the rest of the season, So that should go in their favor. But it's the American League geest and things are only going to get tougher because you think these games against seems like Miami or Colorado, you think these games are going to be easy. But some September time, everybody's looking to take down the Yankees, so it's not going to be easy. Despite the strength schedule allegedly getting easy.
Danny Judge Holmers again today is just getting ridiculous. I think people become numb to it. It's just it's incredible what he's doing. Do you think we get to the point, First of all, are you surprised they pitched him as much a they doing? And we get to the point where he just gets to Bond streat Man. We saw it today too out nobody on they just intentionally walked them.
Do you think we get to the.
Point where you just say enough pitching to him and we're just going to start to see him get three four walks a game.
Yeah, it's ridiculous. He's walked four times in the game twice already this season, which is by far the most in baseball. Intentional walks right up there at the top. So, I mean, he's the most intimidating figure in baseball, probably him and Otawani. What I didn't understand is that the Blue Jays and their manager John Schneider, you know, first that bat Aaron hit the home round. Okay, let's move on. Well, the second at bat is the one you're referring to where they intentionally walk him with two outs to nobody on. And if that's your strategy, so be it. I might not agree with it, but if you want to let somebody else feature, that's fine. But Judge's third at bat, the score is exactly the same. It was four to one during his second at bat, and his third at bat it was four to one. And this is the fourth inning, and it's the same picture. Jose Burrios on the mount and two outs, nobody on, and they pitched to Judge and Berios ends up striking out Judge Sdaron Judge and his amazement aside, I don't understand John Schneider's thinking on that. And you intentionally walk him two out spaces empty his second at bat, two out spaces empty, exact same situation, exact same picture, exact same score, and you pitch to him and you strike him out the third at bat. That was confusing to me. John Schneider has been rumored to be on the hot seat as is. It's only adds to the confusion of his decision making, and that dugout Judge.
By the way, is a minus one thousand to win the MVP now, Bobby with juniors plus five dollars. So you can see here, barring injury, as you're alluding to, Danny, if he stays healthy, this looks like it's Judges to win the AL MVP. And by the way, the Yankees are now back to a two dollars betting favorite to win the AL East against the Orioles. There now that the deadline is coming gone, Danny, is there a team that maybe could be this year's Arizona Diamondbacks and kind of come from nowhere get into the postseason. I don't know if they can go all the way to the World Series like Arizona did a year ago, but is there a surprise team to come now that the deadline is coming gone?
I think kind of dying on this hill all season long, and I made this prediction even before the season, and I think the Pittsburgh Pirates have that ability to surprise them teams if and only if obviously goes without saying they can sneak into the postseason. Right now that Pittsburgh Pirates are fifty five and sixty four, are three games back of a wild card spot, and they're even further back in that Nationally Central Division avenue to a postseason spot is going to be topping either than that Diamondbacks, Padres, Cardinals Giants who they're battling with right now. I just think if they can get Jared Jones healthy, which they're hoping he will be healthy very very soon, that trio of Mitch Keller, Paul Skins and Jared Jones, if they can just find a way to get into the dance. They have just enough hitting to be able to surprise some people if they can get hot and they have a start. That trio of starting pitchers right there, and a good bullpen with Chapman David Bednar an underrated bullpen really that just can't get hot at the right time. That starting pitching trio, that's what you need to win a postseason series. And then after that it's just about guys getting hot at the right time. O'Neill Cruz struggles in the field this last month, but he finally started to get the bat going a little bit. I liked the acquisition of Brian dalya Cruz. I think the biggest obstacle for the Pirates really, as ironic as it is, to say is going to be getting into the postseason. They can just get into the postseason. I could see them making some noise and surprises some people.
Who are you more concerned about Dodgers Phillies. They both find themselves in surprising pennant races. And do you think either one of them is an actual jeopardy here of blowing the division?
Blowing the division?
I would say probably not, And it's less to do with what they're actually doing and as more so to do with the teams below them. The Padres are a competitive bunch, and in fact, they actually have secured the season record against the Dodgers, so they actually own the tiebreaker if they do wind up time. But starting pitching wise, death wise, I still think Los Angeles has a big time advantage over the Padres over in the nationallygue peace facilities that one have built themselves just a massive lead in their division. And then secondly, the Braves have more or less than a five hundred ball club ever since losing Ronald A. Coney Junior their MVP. You put that on top of losing Spencer Schreider the first month of the season. Again, they're a competitive bunch, but they have far too many holes when you compare it to the Philadelphia Phillies. Right now, Bryce Harper is struggling with the bat. I want to say he's won for his last thirty five, which is not sustainable. This guy's going to get it going at some point. Harper is way too good of a player. History tells us that he's gone through slumps before and he comes back hitting the ball better than ever. So I think right now, one hundred and sixty two game seasons, something's going to happen. Something's going to get weird where you struggle for a little bit. But you look at this Phillies roster, they're just way too deep and compared to the Atlanta Bridge right now that are just dealing with a plethora of injuries. Right now, I think it's too big of a lead to lose.
I wish we could go back about ninety days and look at the price points for Arizona to get back to the postseason. Right and now you got to lay a dollar forty five for Arizona to get into the playoffs at least as a wild card. Danny, how are they eight games over five hundred? Well, where did this come from?
I just don't think anybody pays attention to what's going on in Phoenix really. I mean even last year they made it to the World Series. They beat the Philadelphia Pillies in the Championship Series, and people were like, oh, like Arizona's in the World Series, Like did you notice? Like it's almost like this. People don't pay attention to the most part, but a lot of it for them to, you know, with help, like Jack Gallon just came back from his injury. Merrill Kelly has been on the shelf a lot of the season, Edwardo Rodriguez been on the shelf nearly the entire season. They just got back Jordan Montgomery from an injury himself. So they're sneaky though, I mean, I mean they love their manager and Tory Leavella. I've talked to different players that have played for Tory. He's one of the most highly esteemed managers in baseball. And his ability to get guys in the clubhouse to believe the lineup's good the pitching staff leads a little bit some to be desired. But we've seen this this story before. You know, a team that not a lot of people looked upon to make a big run in the postseason, but we saw it last year. They surprised some people. Hopefully Corby Carroll can get the bat going at some point this season. It seems like every time he starts to get on a hot streak, he kind of falls back into the struggles once again. So I think if Corby Carroll goes, guys will win up for the Arizona.
Demback Danny last minute or so.
I think once Houston caught Seattle, we just kind of penciled them in as they're going to win the division. They haven't played great the past couple of weeks. You think people are a little too.
Quick to just crown Houston winning this aos here.
I don't. I was kind of telling people to be patient and believe in this Houston Astros team, even despite when they were ten, twelve, fifteen games under five hundred through the first couple months of the season. Seattle just black can't hit the ball. Now, they have been scoring runs at a higher eclipse acquisitions at the deadline Justin Turner, Randy Rose, Arena stept front office deserves credit, but consistently this team just doesn't put the ball in play enough. Seattle one of the highest strikeout percentages as a team since the turn of the century. I think Houston with their experience, not to mention their advantage over Seattle in recent years. It's very similar to what the Padres were to the Dodgers over these last few years. It was as if the Dodgers just dominated San Diego and it was as if little brother down in San Diego just couldn't quite get over that hump. And so for me from my perspective, and so I see the Mariners, the little brother in that division, get over that hump. I still have a believe that after.
Yeah, Danny, big brother still minus the dollar thirty five to win that West. Thanks for hopping on the Progressive guests on. We always enjoy those baseball conversations. Will when we come back, We're to flip the script talk from NFL. It's getting closer next year Live that's Saturday.
This is live best Saturday on Visan the sports betting n work.
When you wake up in the morning, Depending on where you are in this great country of ours, go to Vson dot com.
You don't even have to be in the country. You can be it anywhere in the world. When you go to vaston.
Dot com, you're going to have access to your best bets, betting sports exclusive articles, odds by state in the US and they vary by state. Betting tools, betting guides are there for you each and every day, and I'm sure plenty on the Olympics right now when you go to Vison dot com back gong as I will hill Dave Ross.
Here we continue this edition of Live be Saturday.
We'll get back to some more golf talk in the preceding hours that we have, and obviously a lot more baseball talk. Great conversation with Danny Vietti in the last segment. Dan Fringlin's going to join us next hour talking more UFC. I do want to get back to the NFL a little bit, because we know the college Football betting gude is out, The NFL Guide is already out right now if you're a Vicent Pro subscriber, and this is an interesting market because I'm curious how you go about handicapping the odds to win wildcard seats. Could not, like you know, we talk in Major League Baseball odds to make the playoffs playoffs, So you got a two way street there, right. You can win the division or you can get a wildcard. Uh, this one. To get the wildcard, you can't win the division. Now, you just got to get one of those others. The Bears are the shortest shot in the NFC to occupy a wild card seat. Remember you get three of them. Okay, three division winners, three wildcards. Bears plus two to fifteen. Well, that tells us in the betting market is Bears even more so than the Packers a plus two twenty more than likely. We're looking at the Lions to win that division. What's interesting there is if you look at the Lions at two twenty five, that's basically saying they get run down by somebody. We're not sure who, but obviously they still feel like a playoff team. Out of those three in the NFC North here, how do you handicap that grouping?
There is one in the NFC I really like. There's actually a couple I really like. I don't know that I like any of the NFC. I think they're probably properly priced, and I think it's telling you, hey, the Bears, you have a decent shot to make the playoffs, but they can also lose the division to the Lions, and they can also lose the division to.
The Packers, and the Packers were very close to making the NFC title Game.
Lions probably Packers probably should have been in the ANFC NFC title Game. Lions probably should have been in the super Bowl. So they're in a good division, and you know, it's nine ten wins and getting a wild card is you know, is a pretty realistic path. So I think those are properly priced. I don't know if you feel differently. I don't know that I would play any of those. Do you like any of those from the NFC Northeast? Again, I just think Lion's probably win the division, and if the Bears win, they'll probably be a wildcard.
But I don't know.
It's still a rookie quarterback, so I don't know that I have some edge there.
Do you feel differently or no?
I mean, I think the only one that I would consider, and I don't want to do this for mojo purposes for me, is Well for US America's team at plus two.
Fifty, that's what I thought were sticking with the NFC nor I love the Cowboys and well plus two fifty, I love that one.
Exactly like I'm with you.
I don't like the Bears to me at plus two fifteen as the shortest shot of the board. It's not playable because I don't know that that's a lock ten win football team, right. I know the Packers got in with nine wins last year, but I don't know that the Bears are good enough to be a wildcard team this year. And I'm with you, like the Packers can win the division. They absolutely can win the division. Will they win the division? Not sure? But because then it comes down to the Packers and lines. For me, the prices are too short. But I will get the Cowboys at plus two to fifty. If the Eagles are who we think they are, that's why we took the Banfield.
Sure their coordinators have gotten better.
I don't look, I'm not a big Kellen Moore guy, but I think he's going to be better than what we saw last year, right, And I don't know they're gonna be as good as Shane Stike in two years ago when the Super Bowl run the whole bit, and then you get an adult to lead the defense in Vic Fangio. So from that point of view, they have gotten better. So if the Cowboys, and again history tells us you don't repeat this champion in the NFC East. Nobody's done it for two decades. That's not a made up thing. That's a real stat. Twenty years okay, since the Eagles did it back in the Donovan McNab era. So at plus two to fifty, look at the it's basically telling you the Eagles plus two seventy five. It's that means the Cowboys buck the trend and the Eagles are a wildcard team. Right, But look, I think the Cowboys are gonna be live if history be damned.
But that does seem to make the most sense to be.
A playable number would be the Cowboys at plus two to fifty.
Sure, because Eagles are well, I think they moved to like minus one twenty in some spots.
That's the lap of.
Well disrespectful it is.
But look, if you're gonna play Philly minus one twenty to win the division, this is really now. Of course, Dallas can miss the postseason altogether and different things can happen. Right, you're basically playing the feat the Philly to win the division. In saying Dallas with all that talent list, DAK got hurt and they just have too much talent in a weaker NFC.
They fall completely out of the mix of them.
Look, that's still a Dallas team with Dak and Lamb and you know, some good Parsons, and they've won twelve games in three years in a row. So are they really going to fall to the eight seed with the top seven seeds making it so that's a two team parlay of Philly winning the division and Dallas still being a top seven seed.
I think that's playable. I actually like the Rams too.
I don't know if they have enough to catch San Francisco barring injury, but with mc bay with Stafford pretty good backup quarterback in Garoppolo, with an older quarterback like Stafford, you have to worry.
Are you missed a few games?
Well, you missed a few games, Garoppolo and McBay system can probably do okay. So to me, Rams at plus two fifty or plus two seventy five, I might be mixing those up.
That one's not bad. And I know you like this team. I don't see them on the board here. What's Minnesota?
Oh boy, I don't have a number of Minnesota.
Well, you need to get one, Dave, you need to get one. Probably three to one I'm guessing.
Probably get that because we don't look at them as I you think they're going to be in play for the division. That's not the reason why I wouldn't bet this. I absolutely would bet it if it's around the three to one number. Now, look, we're not seeing that up on the on the board. So if it's longer than what the Falcons are at plus.
Four to fifty, oh it's a fire.
You fire that right then you absolutely so just just make the playoffs. You don't have to run down the lines. Just make the playoffs. That Falcon's number and plus four to fifty to me is not playable because then who wins the division? Like who upsets the Falcons as odds on? I can't believe they' odds on favorites to win the division. I mean, and again, look this is still Raheem Morris. It didn't exactly work out very well the last time he was a head coach, and he did a good job as a coordinator though, yeah, a long time ago. He did a good job as a coordinator in DC under Mike Shanam, did a really good job under Sean McVay.
Okay, okay, vikings are plus five fifty. That's a wild card.
That's wow, that's worth a bet.
That's worth the bet. I mean, they're not good.
And even if you you're you're high on the vikings, you know he could do. You could just take them. I think they're ten to one to win the division.
You take half unit or a unit on that and a half unit on the plus five fifteen love that you just take them make the playoffs. I don't know how you want to divide that up, but I think plus five fifty. I just think that's a good bet.
I think I think what's happened in the course of the.
Soket, by the way, really fun market.
Yeah, this is a pretty cool market. I think that you've come around on Sam Donald. That's what it tells me that you believe enough that you might sprinkle a little bit on a half unit play on plus five fifty for the Mikes to make the wild card and or ten to one let's get crazy when the division.
I've just come around to the idea that he's in such a good situation, good coaching staff, good talent around him, that they can at least prop him up and he can be okay, or that maybe McCarthy. Here's the thing that the old saying. When you have two quarterbacks, you have none and they probably who knows if they have a quarterback, but you have a free role. If Donald's not good, you put in McCarthy. Maybe McCarthy goes. So you have a two for one shot and you only and you don't need a good quarterback. You need an average slightly even slightly below averages. You've got like the eighteenth best quarterback in the league with that roster, with Jefferson, with Addison, with Aaron Jones, a good line Flores, good defensive coach, O'Connor's a good play caller. The schedule is tough, but getting to nine wins in the NFC with that roster, I don't think it is far fetched. I think of all the ones we discussed it to me, it's a toss up between Dallas at plus two to fifty, Vikings plus five.
Actually like the Rams at plus two seventy five. Whatever is do? I think all three of those are pretty good bets.
I like this market in the AFC. Can I interest you in the Steel City Boys at plus three twenty? Who's the next team at plus three twenty?
Because I know you don't believe they can win this division, right division of death? Look at the Look at the top two Bengals plus dont ninety Ravens plus.
Two jo I'm going to say, what am I going to say?
You're going to say that the schedule for the Steelers is way too hard to do.
But what else am I going to say?
You're gonna say, Mike Tomas never had a losing record, but this might be the year.
You're on If I'm gonna say, if you like the Steelers to be a wild card to make the playoffs with that schedule, He's never won Coach of the Year.
You got a sprinkle a little Coach of the year.
If he gets in the playoffs with that schedule, He's going to be live for Coach of the Year.
There's going to be a little bit of lifetime achievement.
People say, oh my god, how how is Mike Tomlin in all this great career?
How is he in?
Media loves him? How is Mike Tomlin never won Coach of the Year. There's going to be a narrative for Tomlin. So I don't know what he is twenty to one Coach of the Year again, Maybe you take a unit and you sprinkle it up a little if you if you're high on them, a little bit wild card, But I think the better bet if you really think they're going to make a wild card tombinant.
Coach of the Year I think is probably the better value.
Twenty five to one. Mike tom Win a coach of that, that's a better bet. You just nailed.
Take ten bucks out of your fifty hour bet whatever, a fifth of your best and put on Coach of the Year. I think that's money management wise. That's just a better way to get at the same.
Sort of thing.
I remember, with all these markets available, there's a lot of different ways to get at the same thing. Like, hey, I like the Steelers, Do I have a division over Underwins? You know, awards can sometimes be a factor if you like the team that much to just be a Coach.
Of the year. If the narrative, I think is a way to go.
You imagine you can do the whole show on these These are great, These are unbelievable. Could you imagine he's the guy Mike Tomlin to turn around Russell Wilson and make him a Hall of Fame quarterback again? Twenty five to one. That thing would be like five to one by the time we get to December. If this is a playoff team playoffs that it is a fascinating market because again, there's a lot of meat on that bone, if we can get to it later on the program, because it tells you what the Bengals and the Ravens is the top two there in the AFC.
They're not. The books aren't sure which team's gonna win that division.
That's what it tells you, right, Dolphins, Bills, Jets, twenty to thirty to thirty, they're all bunched up. Why because if books don't know which team's gonna win the division, we got legitimate three horses in the als, So who's gonna miss who's gonna.
Get a wildcard?
As a fascinating market, but I think it really is stude observation on your part, Mike Tomlin, twenty five to one is a better bet if you think the Steelers can make a wildcard much more to get to our number two straight ahead, here are alive that Saturday
