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Connor Rogers talks Draft Predictions and Behind the Scenes

Published Apr 28, 2022, 4:00 AM

On today’s show, we’re joined by Connor Rogers of Bleacher Report and Pro Football Focus to talk big predictions for the draft, why everyone’s mock drafts are probably wrong, the fate of Yannis’ teams, Malik Willis, Deebo Samuel, Baker Mayfield and more! Plus Olivia and Yannis unleash on Mike Tyson’s airplane ordeal and The Nets. Plus hear the Bad Beat of the week and the best places to put your money in the Lion’s Lock. 

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From the King of sports Books comes the Key Sports podcast Unleashed, presented by the MGM. Here's your host, Jana's Pampas and Olivia Arlan Decker. Welcome to Unleashed, brought to you by bet MGM boy. The NBA playoffs are in full swing. What a good first round too. We've got a lot to talk about there, and the NFL Draft is finally here. If you're listening to this, it's probably Thursday morning. I hope you're on your way to work. I hope you are getting ready for all the action tonight. We are going to get you ready with our guest today, it's Connor Rogers from Bleacher Report and Pro Football Focus. Last week we had Mike Renner from Pro Football Focus. We got you covered. You can get all the insight. He's got a big board with over three players on it, ranking players by position. It's color coded, it's gorgeous. It's a work of art. He is going to help us get ready. And if you listen to our show, I assume that you already know this, but you can bet on the NFL Draft, and we're gonna get you set there too, because at the end of our show, as always, we bring in bet MGM betting expert Peter Andrew to guide you in the right direction there. This episode is very thorough. Guys, this one has got you covered. Honest. I just worry a little bit whenever we bring on an NFL guy. How many questions are you going to ask him about your giants? I think last week I asked all the questions that I had about the giants, So I don't want to be redundant, but it will come up. I will ask, but you know if he answers before I ask, all I need to know is are we getting some big boys? And that's it. We need some big boys. Everyone knows what we need. Last week we joked about it. Look, we may just have to go to all the Buffalo Wild Wings, all the restaurants where all the big eaters go, and just pull someone out of their chair and throw them in front of Daniel Jones. Whatever it's gonna take to give that guy a couple of seconds to throw to Shepherd. That's all we need. So give us some big boys. Baby. Now, you know, if you go to like any restaurant in the state of Wisconsin, we can find a couple of those. I know you like to poke fun. At Wisconsin, we don't get many meals. Yeah, look, male or female. I just came from Madison. Hey, I'm just saying I set you up. Yeah, you set me up for that. I mean, you know, we're America. We like to eat, so I mean, and I'm for gender equality. Whatever it takes. Just give me three pounds and put it on the line. Ye, who's your cousin? He said, might be available, Vasili vasili, But you know, like we said, I don't know. I don't know if his lungs could handle it. But look, if need be, I'm in New York. I like to eat. I'll blow up and put a helmet on me. Throw me out there. I'll pretend you're pregnant. Maybe we'll both go on the line. Hey, now you've crossed it, that I've crossed the line. Yeah, pun intended. Pun intended about going on the line because I crossed it. Oh God, you're lucky Sam's out here. He'd throw a swing at that one. I'm just saying, I remember what it's like to be pregnant. Not me personally, but I remember my wife. She definitely like to eat a little bit. This is your time to eat. This is your time to eat and not be And you know what, you haven't eating at all. You look great. You're trying so hard. You're digging out of that hole, aren't you. I'm doing what they call damage control. I am my own publicist right now. You're honest here, do you want to go right into bad beat? Yeah? Well, now, while I'm trying to dig myself out of this hole, I basically saying Olivia is eating too much. Bad Beat of the Weak. Let's talk about someone who suffered a tough loss this week. His name is Tim Tronzo. He's the winner of our bad Beat of the week. He had a same game parlay with the Vegas Nights San Jose Sharks that looked like it was about to cash big. Vegas had a two goal lead with two minutes to go, six seconds left in regulation, and that's when things went downhill. Vegas let up two goals, including the time goal with less than a second left, then lost one doughnut in the shootout. Bad news for your bet, my friend. But good news, Timmy. The good news is you are the winner of our bad Beat of the week and you are getting one hundred dollars in bet MGM site credit coming straight to you, my friend. So hopefully that eases the pain a little bit. I hope you can. It rubs a little Icy Hot on it for you. Not promoted, just say now, yeah, I hate when I give a company free promore. Don't do that. Yeah, send us money, Icy Hot, you give shock enough. Put in your venmo right here. Yeah, I'll put my venmo right there. Icy Hot sent it to my account. Now there's last week. Want to talk about this week? From fans running on the court to Ben Simmons staying off the court. So, Olivia, you know what it is. It's time for Rush to unleaved. It's time to unleash. I wanted to do that understated. I love every week to do that different. That was understated. Oh that was understated. You know what's not understated is my opinion on this last week. I unleashed on the Celtics fans who I thought were out of line to Kyrie Irvan and might have deserved the double bird. I didn't so much say that, but it was kind of implied. So I'm not encouraging bad behavior, but I just thought there are a couple of Bostonians who might have deserved it. And it's happening again this week in other sports. What is going on? We have fans going absolutely crazy, running on the court, getting into it with players. And then when I just tapped out when I saw this had gone too far, was someone instigating it with Mike Tyson on an airplane. So first of all, we had, I believe our third protesters stormed the court at a Timberwolves game, And if you aren't familiar, their whole stick is. It's a group of animal rights activists who have an issue with the chicken farm that the Timberwolves owner, Glenn Taylor owns, and the way the farm killed chickens who had a bird flew outbreak. The organization deems it an ethical and I'm not taking a side on either of that. I'm not touching that one with a ten foot poll because those animal rights activists are very passionate group of people. And these protesters have glued themselves to the court, handcuffed themselves to the hoop, and most recently, one dressed as a referee and her plan was to eject Glenn Taylor from the game. Now points for creativity, it's clever, it's ballsy. That was until she got tackled and ejected by arena security. You just you can't make the shift up. Then there was an incident at the Yankees game on Sunday. Cleveland Guardians outfielder Stephen Kuan crushed into the outfield wall trying to make a catch right. Fans started yelling while he was getting checked on, and you know, make sure he was okay. His teammate outfield or Miles Straw came to his defense. But boy, that's when things got interesting as Straw climbed the outfield wall and had words with fans. So after the Yankees hit a walk off for the win, the fans just pelted the field with garbage and bottles and all the like. I gotta say it was a very ugly, embarrassing scene. After the game, Straw called the Yankees fans classless in the worst fan base on the planet. And Jannie, that's your team, that's your squad. Were you there? I was not there. I am highly disappointed in the Yankee fan base. Jesus, I'm sure brutal. You've got to be though, that's so, that's so embarrassing. Yeah, and this is like coming on the heels of the Boston incident. With Kyrie. I think I unleashed last week on Boston fans, and this is karma coming back to haunt me because this was much uglier than what Kyrie was dealing with. So I have no excuse. I gotta say, Yankee fans can be horrible, especially those Bleacher monsters back there. You know. It's not making a good case for drinking at games. No, And that's the whole thing about baseball games. They're so long, they're usually you know, in the middle of the day, you're with all your boys, you're having a good time. Like I only go to baseball games to drink. I don't really enjoy baseball's sport. I've been very honest about that. I like sitting in the sun and having a beer, but I would never throw my trash at a player. And do you remember, like after COVID, when fans were allowed back at games and no one knew how to act right. Every woman crazy at games, college games, pro games, everything. There were all these fan incidents. But this weekend has gotten really bad. But the craziest thing I've seen involving a fan was up in the air. We got our maskless privileges back, So everyone should just got our face priges back. We could go raw daddy, now we can breathe raw daddy. We should all be celebrating, like this is what we've been wanting for two years. But instead, someone on a Jet Blue flight turned it into a Jet Blue fight. As there was video and pictures of a passenger who got into it with Mike Tyson. Mike Tyson, who is a character and itself, let alone a champ, just don't mess with the man. It's like poking a bear. It's literally poking a bear or so. Yeah, he threw a water bottle at him, and all of a sudden, ironed Mike cat enough and we got the real life Mike Tyson's punch out. And I just think this guy had it coming. One of my favorite musicals, you honest, you know I'm a big musical theater Junkie is Chicago and one of my favorite songs in it is he had it coming. And this guy did this was crazy. I don't feel bad for him at all, Like, don't do that, talk about someone who probably had a few, Yeah, yeah, put them all in time out ground him. It's this is really I think I'm hoping this is all post pandemic. Just kind of pent up people have. You know, they've been on break from being socialized and we're getting back into society. And this ends soon because I don't think it's a coincidence that these are all happening back to back to back to back. Hopefully this dies down. Do not do not provoke Mike Tyson if you see him out there. He's a retired boxer. He's all chilled out now. He likes to smoke weed. He's like Confucius all the time on Twitter doing you know, tweeting all these sages tweets. But make zero mistake about it. He's a kid from Brownsville, Brooklyn, and if you keep pressing him, you're gonna find out. Active full round Tyson, You're gonna find out. So there's nobody who's siding with that kid. And and the common theme everyone who's been harassing these athletes are drunk. So let's just legalize marijuana and that's it. They should only serve marijuana at these games and it'll be chilled out. Yeah, except baseball, where where maybe they should give them riddling or cocaine just to make it exciting. Can you imagine I'm joking I'm bet, I'm gm I'm joking. I know this this I'm going I'm crossing the line of the play. I'm really I'm dancing on the wire. Yes, okay, that's that's why they hired you. Right, Let's let's talk about Ben Simmons a little bit. Everyone's talking about it, but I want to throw my two cents into the pot because my take is a little different. I think what we have here is another example of the spell that dating of the Kardashians can put on you. I don't know what is going on, but any time any one of these athletes comes in contact with one of those women, their lives in their careers just fall apart. I mean it seems like they love like guys who are like borderline role players, emerging as stars the Tristan's, you know, and then they just fall apart. Ben Simmons was a star, but now he's scared to play. I don't know what is going on. I don't know what kind of which powers these ladies have, but I think it has something to do with what's going on with Ben Simmons. Now you know how much I hate Boston, all right, I'm a New York Yankees fan, it's just part of the tradition. But I gotta say congrats to the Celtics for taking out the brooms and sweeping KD and Kyrie. This has got to be embarrassing for Katie and Kyrie. I mean, let's just think about it. One guy is talked about as being better than Lebron. The other guy thinks he doesn't need Lebron and that's why he left. This is not a good look. This is not a good look for that argument. Look, I know they had a lot of problems this season. They weren't on the court at the same time for a lot of the season, and everyone's familiar with the Kyrie not playing the first thirty seven games. Then the organization says you can't play on the road either if you can't play at home, and then of course Harden didn't work out and Ben Simmons. But still, when you have a healthy Katie and Kyrie on the court, you're expecting they're gonna not get swept at least. So this is a bad, bad look. But let's focus in on Betty Simmons. I mean, it's really become a joke on the internet now that everyone's joining in going he's gonna be ready for Game one on seven, He's gonna be ready for game one in the season of I mean, who knows. He's getting paid a lot of money. Think it's over a hundred million dollars and he just says his back hurts or whatever. Nobody knows what's going on. He was supposed to be ready for Game four and all he is is out there in an outfit looking like he's sitting He's it's fashion. It just looks like he's just sitting there in fashion week. He's getting ripped by everybody. I don't know what is going on with Ben Simmons, but I think we need to really start looking at the Kardashians and try to find out. There needs to be an NBA rule put into effect where if you are an athlete in the NBA, you cannot date a Kardashian. It's got to go in the contract. It has to go in the contract. This is the third NBA player we've seen who just falls apart after they come in contact with those witches. So enough, Okay, Halloween's over, go watch hocus Pocus instead. That's my advice to any NBA play here. I really crossed the line this episode. I just called him witches, but why not? I have no explanation for this other than a spell. I mean, can you explain what's going on with Ben Simmons? What injury can he have that is keeping him off the court this long? There's no conceivable injury. There's nothing. Be honest, I cannot tell you that. I'm not a doctor, but I am a spectator with a lot of opinions. And I do think if he wants to dial down the negative convo around him, he should just wear something so normal to these games. He's drawing so much more attention in for dressing so extravagantly and sitting on the bench and watching his team lose, And I think sportsmanship that just kind of looks bad. It's just a bad look, Like, just show up, man, if you're not gonna play, just show up and don't cause any more attention. And I don't know where your team issued sweats, I don't know. Don't wear all that nonsense. It's bad luck, I think. But good unleashed boy. You hit on like five different points there. I was taking notes and drawing a diagram. It is I'm telling you, this is the weirdest story in sports that I can remember. It just doesn't make any sense. So that's why I'm saying. It's got to be a curse put on him by those witches. That's all I'm saying. I kind of hope none of the Kardashians listen to our show. We don't know, We have yet to confirm. You know, what can you do? And next thing you know, I'm going to divorce my wife and I'm gonna be sitting on the bench on this podcast. Your comedy career would go downhill. If that is what would happen. Oh my gosh, Well that was good. Hey, let's get back to NFL Draft. Let's leave the NBA alone for a minute. Let's leave the Kardashians alone for a minute, and let's get into the draft and bring on Connor Rodgers. Okay, let's bring in our guest on the eve of the NFL Draft. He's made as my draft and checked it twice, probably a couple more times. The host of NFL Stock Exchange for Pro Football Focused and lead draft analyst for Bleacher Report, Connor Rogers is here. Connor, thanks for joining, Thanks so much for having me. Happy to be here, happy to rip up that mock draft at least eight more times before Thursday in the countdown goes on the clock. So here we go, right, And not only that, I feel like everyone's going to be ripping up their mock draft when it's all said and done, because no one seems that confident in their draft picks. How confident are you in your mock draft? Oh, this is the worst year I can remember, honestly, because it starts at number one, right. I think that's the hardest thing. For so long I was set on Aidan Hutchinson going first overall in this draft, and you know, for the longest time I kind of put aside the Trayvon Walker rumors and now it's you have to buy in a little bit. So I think the unpredictable nature of the number one overall pick kind of sets everything else in line. The good thing is it's going to be some kind of combination at one and two, whether it's Walker first and hutch second or reversed. And then after that is where it gets really fun. The drafts in vegases year, which gives it, of course an extra layer of excitement. But if you were given an all access pass to any team's draft room this year. Who's would it be. It's a great question, and I think it has to be one of the two New York teams right just because it's unprecedented to see a two teams picked twice in the top ten and two teams that really gotta get it right. And I know that's kind of cliche to say. You have the Giants starting with the new regime and Joe Shane, I think they'll be a little bit more flexible in terms of willing to move one of the two picks to get later capital for two thousand twenty three if that opportunity presents itself. And then a New York Jets football team that has to start winning games under Joe Douglas. He's done a nice job making trades, he's done a nice job acquiring the picks, but none of that matters if you're constantly losing on the field. So they know how much four in ten means to them. There's a lot of different combinations that both of those teams can go. So I would love to see the arguments between the offensive staff, the defensive staff, and the front office evaluators in both those war rooms right now. Connor you have picked a bone here with you, honest, good one. Got a Giants fan on our hands, yeah, we do. But first, I definitely want to focus on the Jets because they've had four top ten picks in two years, Zach Wilson, Barrett Tucker, four picks in the top forty this year? Are they running out of excuses? The Jets? I mean, should they just should they be sent down like they do in soccer in Europe? I mean, they gotta get it done right, and this is the relegation. Is that the relegation? It's God, it's tough. Yeah, that's how most of us know it, right, man, it's crazy, right. I mean, I think the reason why they're selling themselves on some hope is that Robert Salis still knew there. But I'm Joe Douglas's terms. The first draft does not look good. The second draft it's early returns. But that one does look good. And it's all gonna matter what happens with Zach Wilson, So every other pick that it looks like a hit, it's still gonna focus on the quarterback. I mean, you're right, you gotta get this right. And it's not just four in ten it's thirty five and thirty eight. Those don't need to be developmental players, don't need those need to be two starters. Whether they get better at safety, lin acker, wherever it may be, they need to upgrade at starter level positions, not deaf pieces. So they need to hit on not just day one, but on day two as well. And with the Giants, I mean, I'm hearing they want an offensive tackle at five, but maybe trade back at ten. They need more assets. They're in salary cap hell, the worst in the league. What are you predicting they do? Maybe not with that first pick, but that second. Yeah, I feel like this is uh, you know, jenxing myself by saying this, But I feel like they're actually one of the more easier teams to figure out in terms of at least the position groups. They want to go at five, it's gonna be the best offensive lineman available now, whether Ikey Aquanu is gone, Evan Neil is gone, that it'll be Charles Cross. I think one of the two are there. I don't think it will be there. I don't think he makes it pass the Jets at four, maybe the Texans at three. I think the Giants would love to have Evan Neil from Alabama at five, and then once again that consolation prize being Charles Cross That is not a bad consolation prize. So they're kind of zoned in on getting an offensive lineman who will play on the right side, Andrew Thomas will stay on the left side. Then you look at that other pick and you're absolutely right, they're gonna answer the phones. They're gonna look at if anyone wants to come up jump Atlanta for the first wide receiver to come off the board. Maybe we have the shock of the draft and a quarterback sneaks in that top ten. We'll see about that. But if they can't get out of that pick or they don't like the offers on the table, I think they're looking at the cornerbacks something on defensively, Sauce Gardner at corner. I think Derek Stingley is a little bit more of a long shot. Jermaine Johnson, the pass rusher from Florida State, that would be his range at well. Maybe a Cabon Thibodeau slide begins and the Giants are willing to end that slide. But Sauce Gardner would be the top player I would project in that spot. He's a scheme fit with Wink Martindale, and he's a top ten overall player in this draft. So you're saying the Giants you're gonna do good. I mean, you know, I appreciate that they're gonna have a word. That all you heard, that's all I hear. I look, I hear what I want to hear when it comes to the Giants. That's just how it goes every year. It starts off optimistic. Me and my wife we put on all our Giants attire and then we burn it halfway through the year. So yeah, it's it's what we do every year. But halfway through the year is pretty good. I mean for me, I grew up in a Jets household and we don't usually make it halfway through the year. So take that one and run with it. Yeah, okay, Well you're right. The only people who I feel worse for a Jets fans. So, I mean, it's been bad New York. We you know, the Giants have one recently, So I feel worse for you. That's that's rough being a Jets fan. Yeah. New York football is in a special place right now, and I know the Bills are in New York. But it's just not it's just not New York football to us. You know, down in the New York City area, they're in their own universe. Nothing against Buffalo, but they don't count as New York football being successful. Now they're Canadian. I consider them. They didn't know how that worked. I'm in Midwestern I didn't know how you New York people decipher. Your team's very complicated. And I mean the Jets and Giants play in New Jersey, so that's the Buffalo fans rebuttal to them being not a New York team. The bottom line is nothing. It hasn't been good for the Jets and Giants. Seriously, the credit to the Bills fans has been very, very good for them. Yeah, it's true. Let's talk quarterback. Is Kenny Pickt the safe play if you were drafting the quarterback and see the most NFL ready? Yeah, I mean the problem is how far does that get you? Right? Honestly, when you look at it, it's just a matter of is he on the tier of last year's guys Lawrence Wilson, Fields, Lance and even Mac Jones. He's not even there, right, So it's a matter of you could draft him, you could play him now. He's an older prospect to believe will be a twenty four year old rookie. Use that pit for a long time, and to his credit, he figured out, I just see the ceiling. With Kenny Pickett, everything works out. You love everything around him, you love what he's done, and come in and thrive and understad of the offense. As Derek Carr, who's fine. There's nothing wrong with Derek Carr. But how many times do you hear a guy get drafted as the first quarterback off the board in the draft and everybody says the end of the spectrum that everybody's celebrating at is Derek Carr. They usually like to throw comps of Rogers, Mahomes, crazy things like that. So he's a fine player. He's not your traditional first round quarterback, but he is the high floor of the quarterback class this year. Yeah, but a lot of people still like Molik Willis to go before him. He's got a cannon, He's a dual threat. He might have more upside, may not be as ready. How do you think his skills translate to the NFL? Or is he kind of a project? The traits are incredible. He's got a big arm, he's got a thick build that he can take on hits when he wants to be a runner. He's got really good vision as a runner. It's very underrated. He can make every throw. We all know that, I think, and this is the case for all these guys. It's not just Maliqu Willis. It's Desmon rit Or, it's Sam how it's Matt Corrall elevated. They need to start throwing with anticipation. They need to get comfortable working through progressions over and over again. Not just to play here, a play there. Malik Willison needs seasoning, He needs to marinate a little bit, and a lot of these guys do. But Malik is the home run swing in this class right if you're getting up to bat, and home run swings are what keep jobs. Joe Burrow obviously was number one overall pick. But the guys you've seen the playoffs are Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes. These are top tier premium quarterbacks. Those are the guys that are going to continuously be there. Lamar Jackson is going to be back there an m v P previous years. So when you look at it in that regard, Malik Willis needs time, but at least the end of the development, the highest point for him is a premium starter. How far back does your draft prep go? Do you like have a personal database notes on these guys going back years? I mean when do you start watching them from pre school? I mean, how do how do you do it? Yeah? So I start the end of May every single year like an absolute sick Oh. I have an Excel sheet in front of me that end of May, after the declarations and everything is cut to four seven players. I ranked about three hundred ten. So you start at the end of May. You gotta have a summer, like you have to have a summer at some point. I think my family doesn't see me enough as it is. So you try to get fifty to a hundred done over the summer. And those are the premium guys. Those are maybe the top seniors that you know are in the draft, the juniors that are gonna declare barring an injury or a meltdown kind of season. So if you can go into the fall over youse, give yourself three months to go through fifty to a hundred players, you have a good baseline. You obviously go through it throughout the entire season. December is full throttle. December is where you're trying to get this thing up to. Obviously three hundred players ranked all the way throughout the spring, and that's the end result. It is, uh, almost a year round. I would say eleven months. Come, Jean. If you did hear him say before we started recording that he has a girlfriend. I'm not so sure now that I've heard your schedule. Are you shirk on her? Does she exist? We'll see after the draft. We'll see after the draft. This is the third draft she's been through with me, so we're at the point where it's like, you know, we know what, we know what this is. It's absolute mayhem and then and then may I'm a human again. For a couple of weeks right between your met s obsession and the draft, you're just you're a busy man, my man. Yeah, yeah, keep him busy. I'd go crazy if I didn't. It's some are slow. I'll admit that. Some are slow. It's that's a good good life of being an NFL draft analysts full time. Right? Did you draft her first round? Second round? Your girlfriend? What did her look like? Number one overall pick is the safest answer you can give you if you give anything else in that you're in dear deep trouble here. Okay, it's not a Kenny Pickett high floor. It's not a Malique Willis long term trade. I like that. This is the Blue Ship Prospect generational whole. I'm picturing your Valentine's card saying that too. This is getting very sappy. This is Yeah, she's at work today. I'm working from home. She won't know about this podcast, so you will. Speaking of number one overall pick. No one knows who the Jags are taking their GM. Trent Balky said this week that they're down to four players. Now what I hear when I hear him make that public comment is that they're trying to lure someone to trade up, that they're not married to anyone at that top spot. But I'm also hearing that not a lot of teams are looking to move up. What are you reading between the lines from Jacksonville? And they're gonna have to make a choice, And I really do believe they're divided, and it's almost unheard of, right, I mean, how many times do you get to seventy two hours before the draft and you look at it and you go out, we don't know who we're gonna take, And maybe they do internally, but a lot of the things I hear is that it's truly torn. You have a GM that's infatuated with a player like Travi on Walker that is all projection. The college production was not the typical makeup of forget and number one overall, pick a top five, top ten pick. Then you have an owner that understandably he is reading everything and everybody's saying, take Adan Hutchinson. It's the safest thing on the board. And then he's probably sitting there going why aren't we taking Adian Hutchinson? And then you have a Super Bowl winning offensive coach that watched the film from last year and goes, this offense is horrific. We need maybe a tackle or something like that. So I really think they're divided. I don't usually buy into things like that that's close to the draft, but I think they're divided. At the end of the day, the GM is the one with the roster control, which is why Treyvon Walker is the big time favorite to go number one overall. Right now, how about the Lions at number two? Last week we had Mike renneran he told us he thinks they're taking a quarterback Malik Williams from Liberty. Obviously his level of competition, it's hard to judge. What do you think about Malik Willis? How do you think his game will translate in the NFL? And you think that the Lions are gonna take him? I think it's gonna take some time, right, he really does need that season. And I think when it's all said and done, in the right situation, if he goes to a Pittsburgh Steelers and sits behind Strabisky, they got weapons, they got Nasey Harris, that's a situation where he can succeed. Now, I don't think he goes number two overall to the lines. I think the lines are sitting there essentially playing the game of Traymont Walker goes number one, we will sprint in the Aidan Hutchinson card. I think they've felt that way going back all the way to November or December. Guys. Now, if Aidan Hutchinson goes number one, I think they'll gladly take a Trayvon Walker level player and just say we need to build a defense. I think what a lot of people don't realize is and people don't have to agree with this. I maybe I don't. They do like Jared Goff. They're not scrambling at quarterback, whether that's right or whether that's wrong. They're paying him a lot of money, at least for this year. This is not a good quarterback class. Taking one at number two is gonna be a reach, no matter how you slice it, for what a guy is now or for what he could be. And there's no job security issues there. They're on five year deals there in year number two. They could be bad again this year and they're still gonna get the draft next year in a much better quarterback class. So I don't think they take Malik Willis. I think they're gonna take a defensive, you know, trenches kind of player to build on their foundation and the look to move on from golf maybe after this season. Now, that was a pretty hot take from Mike Renner last week. So I've got to ask you, what is some wild prediction, some hot take you have for this draft. Wow, Well, I think I don't know if this is even a hot take anymore. I think the run on wide receivers. I think we're gonna have five go between about picks eight through fifteen, which is an unheard of run on wide receivers. That's just essentially wide receiver after wide receiver. You have Atlanta at eight. I think the Eagles would like to come up from fifteen if they can. That's always gonna be a little difficult. The Jets at ten are looking at wide receiver, Washington at Elevin is looking at wide receiver. You just go down this s board these teams, the Texans at thirteen and it goes back to the even the Saints at sixteen, and they have two first round picks now, so they're looking at wide receivers. So I think that's one that people keep comfortably thinking. One will be there for Green Bay at twenty two, or one will be there, you know, at twenty eight or twenty nine for the Chiefs. If you want one, you better be in the top fifteen because I think the run is going to get absolutely crazy. And then the last one is I think Trevor Penning is going a lot earlier than wherever people have him right now, which is crazy. And FCS tackle a little bit older of a prospect, a great athlete, but another guy that needs some development. I think the demand for offensive tackles is so high that we're gonna see three and the guys who talked about earlier at Kwanu Cross Neil, they're gonna go in the top seven picks of this draft, and that's gonna push Penning up potentially into the top sixteen of this draft. I've got to ask, speaking of wide receiver, and this is kind of not a wide receiver, what does he call himself a running receiver, a wide back? Deebo Samuel. There's a lot of news and we are recording this Tuesday morning. Something may be wrapped up by Thursday of him wanting out of San fran But John Lynch says he doesn't imagine trading Deebo Samuel. Do you think this week we will see some action. We saw the video of him at the club saying he doesn't want to stay. What would be a good fit for Diebo Samuel? Well, when it comes down to it, there are really three teams I think that you've see in play. Maybe or it starts with the Jets because they have the most draft capital out of everyone in the money Olivia. It's so hard this time of year to move a guy that is getting twenty million dollars a year because everybody spent their money already, they're spending. Spree is gone. Nobody has cap space left. There's only a handful of teams that do. Then that team has to have the draft capital to convince the Niners to move him. So when these things come up so late in the off season, it's not good for anybody to be completely honest with you. So that's why the Jets are at the forefront of that. They tried to trade for Tyreek Hill and we're gonna pay him twenty five million year. It didn't work, so they're obviously all over the wide receiver market once again. The Eagles are looking at wide receivers. You know, the Packers need a wide receiver. Although the Packers didn't pay Davante Adams, So are they gonna go trade for Deebo Samuel and other The Niners gonna keep Deebo Samuel in the NFC. That seems kind of crazy to me as well, if they even move him. But to answer your question on the flip side, why there could be action this week, I mean, the Niners got to make a decision. If he's dug In, and you need to find out for for absolutely, for certain, if he's dug in that he's never coming back to play for your franchise. Don't you need draft assets right now to help tray Lance for next year who's going to essentially be playing his rookie season, his first year as a full time starter. If you trade him over the summer because he's not coming back, you get picks for two thousand twenty three. Those don't help your two thousand twenty two season. This is a win now football team under Kyle Shanahan, so I wouldn't be surprised if these next forty eight hours get a little crazy. What about Baker Mayfield? I know the Browns are gonna have a hard time trading him right because of the money? Are they gonna Are they basically gonna hardball someone into forcing them to give away draft picks? I mean, what's the situation? Where is he headed? How's that going to turn out? I think the only way the Browns can unload that money is if they attach a draft pick with him. Which is the last time I think we saw this. It was a brock Osweiler situation a very long time ago. It's basically the contract is so bad and the player is not in demand because of that money that the team acquiring him really just wants to pick that comes with him. They'll eat the money for a year on the roster, maybe give him a shot to play. And you look at teams that are kind of influx at quarterback teams that are in a situation that he's not coming in to be the guy, but he's also not coming in to make things complicated around the certain starter. Right so, Seattle, they don't have a defined answer at quarterback Carolina at the moment. Although are you really gonna pay Sam Donald and Baker Mayfield to combine almost forty million dollars to be your quarterbacks? That's insanity, absolute insanity, Although it's the one we hear all the time. Honestly, the hard truth is with Baker Mayfield right now, he is not an in demand asset for the NFL, and that might cost the Browns to be able to unload his money. Does he just maybe end up staying on the Browns they can't move him. There's a chance, but I don't think I think both sides would say stay home. I just imagine Baker Mayfield and DeShawn Watson in the same training camp in Cleveland. It would be mass chaos. It would be a circus like we've never seen before in an NFL training camp. I may sound naive here, like I'm still holding out hope, but I have a hard time leaving Baker Mayfield doesn't have a starting job on one of the thirty two teams, And like you mentioned Seattle, wouldn't you take a Baker Mayfield over Drew Lock. I know Drewlock has upside, We've seen him play great in Denver, but I still feel like Baker's the star and I would like to think that he would have the smarts to reinvent himself wherever he goes next. Don't you think there's some truth to that? I do, And it kind of goes back to our debot conversation, right when you get this late in the off season, how your market just gets devoured and it's you know, we could say what we want about Baker Mayfield, what he says on Twitter, Instagram or anything like that. It's not right how this has been handled, because if they knew, they were always looking to upgrade from the absolutely beginning of the off season, I think the Washington Commanders would have taken Baker Mayfield over Carson Wentz a million times over. I think there's teams that we're looking for a solution at quarterback, even if it's a stop gap option, a bridge for a year or two. They'd rather roll the dice on Baker Mayfield. They went out and got guys that costs a lot of money, They gave up draft picks, they made moves already where it was too late. And now I do agree with Olivia. I think Seattle, I mean, how do you even sell that that Drew lock is going to be the starting quarterback there? That's a scenario where it does make sense for Baker Mayfield. And maybe the teams know, like a Seattle knows that nobody else is really active for him. The longer you wait, the cheaper the price gets, or like I said, maybe you can get a draft pick back. But yeah, I'm with you. When Baker Mayfield's healthy, and he was not last year, he is one of the best thirty two quarterbacks in the NFL. I think that's a pretty easy answer. Back to Malik Willis for a second, Peter King doesn't even have him going in the first round. Is that crazy? I mean, he's a dual threat. The liberty level of competition is the only question. What's your view on that take? I'd be surprised. I think the Steelers, not only I think take him at twenty. I think they explore options to make sure they get him earlier if they have to. They just don't want to give up a lot to get him. Nobody wants to give up a lot to go up. I would be very surprised Malik Willis on day two, to me is a situation that has not been in my head since I left the Senior Bowl in January, after he had a great week there and hearing all the teams how much they loved sitting down talking to him. So that would be a big surprise to me, just because you have a lot of teams that can take a guy sit him for a year. I mean, I don't even think it's completely out of line that if he made it all the way to the end of the round, why would Tennessee not think about sitting him behind Ryan Tannehill for two years or something along the lines of that. There's just a lot there where, there's a lot of homes from Malik Willissippi slides. Don't see him getting past Okay, we asked Mike this last week. We talked a little bit about it, of the crazy investigation that scouts have to do to look into these players to make sure they're getting a clean cut guy. As we know that doesn't always pan out. But what's the craziest story you've heard of a question asked in draft interviews or some kind of deep dive into an individual. I think the most ridiculous one that's been overused to the point of just being absurd is when they ask you if you're a cat or dog. It's one of those things where everybody thinks the right answer is dog for obvious reasons. And then sometimes they ask favorite color. And I don't think they do it for a reason. I think they do it to get the prospect to think and see how he reacts and if he just answers the questions. So draft interviews are absurd. They are not made for public consumption, I think at this point, and that's why you don't see much of them ever. Shot by teams, aired by teams. When they're leaked by teams, they get more and more ridiculous. It's gotten better, I would say since I started doing this. But it's mostly just mind games. It really is. At the end of the day, you don't have There's a lot of teams that will sit down and just want to know about you, how you work. Sometimes they want to talk to you, not about you, they want to talk to you about your teammates because they're gonna find out the truth from the guy you played with. Rather you can sit in there and lie. So it's either mind games or it's just background work on somebody else, or it could be true questions as well. So it's it's kind of ridiculous. And now it's in person again. Let's not forget it used to be on FaceTime during the pandemic, where it was almost useless for teams. Is there any underdog who you got your eye on, who's just gonna make a splash that nobody's talking about, is gonna get drafted and just so prize everyone or undercat undercat yeah, undercattered. Yeah, that's a good one. If we want to go deep cut here, I mean we're talking player one fifty on the board. Villas Jones from Tennessee, an explosive returner and explosive receiver. He tested really, really well. There's always that one guy, and a lot of it's you know, the fantasy community hyping him up training camp, preseason. There's always that one guy that has to sit there first two days of the draft. His name doesn't get Everybody goes home from the draft party or on the couch by yourself with the cell phone in the agent And I think Vellis Jones is someone that doesn't go in the top one hundred picks of this draft and really sticks on the back end of a roster and by year two can be a legitimate playmaker in this league. So he's somebody that I would gladly stick my name on and say, this guy is athletic. Tennessee's quarterback situation and passing offense was not great. That held him back, and once again he's just been underutilized and I think he'll exceed his draft expectations. Be honest, if you were a draft prospect, would you want to be in person at the draft or would you want to be home in case your night goes horribly wrong? Now, I want to be there. I want to be there in person. Yeah, I want to be there in person. I think you have to soak it in right now. I've been in Vegas with the honest and he'd get one of those big tall Dacris and he'd be sitting there and and there might be a problem, but I think you'd have a good night either way. Yeah, either way, I'm drinking. So that's what it is. It's just am I drinking because I'm happier? I'm drinking because I'm sad, But I'm drinking either way. Yeah, it's an experience of how do you pass it up right at one time for work? I was in Vegas for eight days and by day five you're just sitting in the sports book watching baseball, Like how much longer can I actually survive in this place? But the draft prospects for most of them, hopefully it's just one night at that point. To the bartenders probably don't believe that you're there for work anymore either, No, not at all. I've been there too. Yeah, well you're a Bets and Jets finch, so there's probably a lot of bartenders that know you buy a first name basis right when you Yeah, yeah, I would say that. I mean in my neighborhood joint here, it's uh, you know, for Jets games. I don't even stomach going out. That's not off the table. That doesn't happen for the New York Mets. Absolutely, it's uh, you know, how many rounds can you go through? They usually blow it at the bullpen as well, so you sit through extra innings. It could be a costly tap. Oh man, that was a lot of fun. Connor, you gave us a lot of good insight and laughs. Thanks so much for joining us. Thanks so much for having me. It was great. I hope you guys enjoy the draft. You can follow Connor Rogers on Twitter at Connor J. Rogers. Enjoy the NFL Draft, and thanks again for being here. Okay, now let's bring in bet MGM betting expert demand the Ledge into himself, Peter Andrew, Peter, welcome. Let's start talking all this movement now. With the NBA playoffs, I mean, it seems like all the organizations adapted to the long season by resting guys to try to avoid injuries so everyone could be healthy for the playoffs. And boy did that not work. I mean, we got Booker down, Joel embiid his finger, He's it looks like he can't catch the ball. What kind of movement are we seeing now with the odds now that Joe embiad is hurt, Bookers down, yeah, so and Beads the probably the biggest one. He's down to eighteen and one Finals MVP. I mean, not only is it the injury, I mean that's a series now by the way, I apologize too quickly last week. We'll get into that at some point, but fractors are back. But I mean yesterday's game, I mean he I think he took fifteen total shots, did not look like himself. He's down to eighteen and one. Booker who seemingly could be back within a week. He's dropped down from a four to five to one to nine to one, so you're still seeing a decline there. He's actually even with Chris Paul right now in terms of finals MVP and then stock rising. Jayson Tatum, no doubt, unbelievable series. You know they were talking about it on the broadcast. You know, he was a great shooter last year and now he's become just an amazing player because he plays defense. A couple of steals, I mean, he's he's in every play and that that was the difference between the Celtics team and the next team that Katie turning the ball over NonStop, not playing team defense. So the Celtics are hot right now and for good reason. Yeah. So that's the only series that's wrapped up, But we've got great Thursday NBA action that could do the same. Two desperation games three, two series leads as the home teams try to even it up. Stay alive, Stay in it. Also two small spreads Vegas thinking these games will be close one and a half point games. We have the Sixers, who are the favorite in Toronto, and the Mavericks, who are the underdog in Utah. What's the safest bet here? With two small spreads, I'm going both dogs, Okay. I mean I would love to pick the Jazz on Thursday, but they got absolutely smoked in Game five. So I mean what they losing by thirty five points, the team look all out of scene. Donovan Mitchell looked terrible, and then you had on the other side don Chittz Brunson. I think they combined for like fifty seven points between the two of them. I mean, I think you just have to roll the hot hand and kind of gonna kill them while they're down. And just end the series. If this was a close game going back home, I could see the Jazz maybe taking it and forcing it. But Dallas looks too good, and I think importantly the Jazz just looked too bad. They just completely all over the place. I mean, I think Chuck called it out like four or five times on the broadcast to just missing the open past, just trying to force things next thing, you know, five defenseman just crowding him in paint. Never gonna win like that. And Dallas is a pretty capable team. I think they can score and kind of different areas. So I think they wrap it up and then, like I said, Raptors. I mean, while things didn't look too hot the first couple of games, I think they're coming back with a little bit momentum. I think importantly Sixers just having trouble closing games out. I think they at least forced to seven. Destible again can't play because of international COVID vaccination restriction whatever it is, So I think they take care of business forces seven. I think Sixers end up taking in seven games, but I think it should be a good one on Thursday. There how about one more dog? Do you think Denver gets one more game against Golden State in Golden State, do you think they close it up? I think it's over, Okay. So now over to the NFL Draft, which begins tonight Thursday. So exciting and there's been a lot of movements since last time we talked to Pete last week when Aidan Hutchinson was the favorite for first overall pick. We just had Connor Rodgers on. He was just telling us that even he's changing his tune a little bit, Trayvon Walker is now expected at bet MGM and other books to be the first overall pick at minus two to five. What do you think? Yeah, this is very much dictated by sharp or smart money. We've been seeing a lot of it. Yeah, and as a whole you'll hear this from lots of operators. But we'll have low limits on NFL Draft for these reasons. There's so much uncertainty. There's obviously news that can leak, and that's why we try to protect ourselves a little bit. But Jags love the upside. I think they look at Hutchinson as the you know, the quote unquote safe pick, whereas Trayvon Walker has extreme upside, So I think they end up taking him if you can catch the price at mins two twenty five, I think it's worth it. It's laying a bit, But as you get closer and closer to seven eight o'clock, I think you're going to see that price go to four hundred five hundred the market eventually to close. So you're not getting a bad deal right now versus where it could end up. But really interesting because you probably still look at those three d n s as probably first three picks. The order can certainly change. Obviously the potential of a trade coming in there could impact things, but I think Walker one is is now the hot move. Okay. I don't usually give betting advice on this show, and I really shouldn't. I am a journalist first and foremost not a betting expert. However, I've got a little something here I want to share because Trent Baky, the GM of the Jags, is saying that they've narrowed down their first pick to four players, and we can know clearly that those four players are Walker, Hutchinson, Equanu, and Evan Neil from Alabama. We know that those are the four players that they're circling. So here's my take. If you're looking at Hutchinson, Equanu and Neil, who are all plus money. Why not just leave Walker alone and take the value put some money on the other three, knowing that that's seventy chance that one of them is gonna go Pete, are you with me? I am not, because one there's a bit of margin built into these for that reason that you probably won't come out net positive. And there's always that smoke in mirrors kind of kind of thought that bulky may just be throwing a curveball. So, oh my god, I can picture it happening, but I can also the same time see something getting completely shaken up. Yeah, I don't know, man, See I guess you're honest. That's Pete saying stay in your lane, Olivia. Yeah, a little bit. Yeah, that's what I heard that. That was the subtext to that. That's all I heard was subtext there. He was like, Okay, why don't you simmer down? Now? He could have just said simm it down. Yeah, he says, wait, when's your maternity lead? I want the political and nice route instead. Do you see any quarterbacks going or just two Detroit? Oh? It's tough because it all depends on what happens leading up to Thursday with the six picks, So there's a lot of rumors around Baker going to Carolina. If they do, then obviously then you look at them taking a guy like Charles Cross taking an offensive lineman to protect him. But it's all hypotheticals at that point. So six was the spot for a quarterback, but now you obviously take that away. I don't see anybody else coming in unless you get to Houston, which I think is somewhere around fourteen. You have scenes with a couple of picks that maybe they go the route of a quarterback to, but other than that, there's really not much. So it's all dependent on the trade market and then what happens from there. Baker's I think the number one that's going to go if there's a trade. Does Jimmy end up going somewhere to I don't know, No one knows, but that's why I've said, you know, I was talking to you guys about this. I take the overs on pick it in Willis on where they go. I think right now they're set like pick its twelve and a half. I don't see him going under that for right now. I think he goes fourteen fifteen, sixteen, and then maybe to the Lions at thirty two and that last pick. All right, now you have it. Okay, I like that, And as I'm perusing bet MGMs draft options for betting, that is kind of a fun one to do. Of just over under Again, I'm not I assume everyone listening knows all about how to bet on the draft, but I also assume that we have some newbies who states just got legalized and get to see all this for the first time and do all this for the first time. It's so much fun, especially in a draft that has so many question marks. Why not have a little fun with it, Pete, leave us with one really good bet that you would put your money on that you are going to put your money on. Yeah, I've already done it today. Jamison Williams under twelve and a half, so for him to be picked eleven, tenth, nine, so on. For those newbies that are coming in, I see Jets have four and ten. Jets are probably going to go to the corner route at four, but at ten they need wide receiver help. And then you have eleven Washington. Who's gonna need help other than McLaurin especially, you're bringing in Carson Wentz, Jamison Williams for everything that happened in his injury. Everybody's saying he's making unbelievable progressed on it. You don't just let that value go away. A guy like that go to fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, and then if you're that team, he always goes to a Patriots or competitor. So I think you have to take a shot at him at ten or eleven if you're either Washington or the Jets, and maybe one of them or Garrett Wilson goes off the board quick at seven, and then that forces teams to trade up because you've seen one of the two guys that's arguably the best wide receiper in the draft go. So I think that starts to shake things up a little bit. And we've seen it, you know before, Henry Ruggs goes early a couple of years ago, the market completely collapses and everybody getting taken immediately. So really interesting to see what is with wide receivers. But love under twelve and a half for Jameson Williams, and I think it's close to you know, normal money. I think it's like minus one thirty right now, So you're not laying too much to to make a good amount. Okay, I like that one, Pete. You've got us already. Man, this is gonna be a good one, really fun, unpredictable NFL Draft. Place your bets at bet MGM. Make sure you follow at bet MGM on all social media channels so you can keep up with our draft coverage. Thanks so much, Pete. Thanks guys,

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