Trump lost more than the war with Iran. U.S. media tends to look at things through a bilateral or ethnocentric lens of winners and losers. The bigger story is how Trump singlehandedly altered the calculus for multiple nation states, and fundamentally shifted historic alliances. Israel stands to lose the most and is increasingly isolated now that Iran and its proxies are triumphant. But this also has enormous implications for the Gulf States who have to renegotiate their relationship with Tehran. Whether there are any actual payouts in this agreement is icing on Iran’s liquidity cake as entry to market oil prices and flows alone will amount to a huge windfall. In three short months Trump weakened the position of U.S. allies and strengthened Iran and its allies.

Resources

CNBC: Pres. Trump: MOU is not final, if I don’t like agreement we will go back to dropping bombs

AL-MONITOR: Analysis-Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war

Al Jazeera: Will a US-Iran deal unlock $300bn in investment fund for Tehran?

Middle East Eye: US-Iran deal leaves Israel isolated and Netanyahu exposed

Brookings: The end of the American way of war?

Media Bias Fact Check: Shafaq News – Bias and Credibility

Shafaq News: Two powers, one grid: The geopolitical siege of Iraq’s economy

Frontline: Qassem Soleimani’s Complex Legacy in Iraq

Alcon Intel: Iran Proxy Network Post-War: Reconstitution & Threat

U.S. EIA: Country Analysis Brief: Iran

Tehran Dispatch: Iran Quietly Expands Oil Sales to Asia, Bypassing Western Sanctions

UNFTR Resources

Video: Trump Weakened U.S. Allies While Strengthening Iran.

Essay: We Lost More Than This War.

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