Inflation figures came out this week and they were absolutely brutal. April CPI was startling enough, but the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is an indicator of inflation in the pipeline was shocking. Oil reserves are running down to dangerously low levels and it’s clear now that there’s no immediate resolution to the oil crisis, so we’re about to realize our worst economic fears. We take a look back at our predictions from nine months ago to see how accurate they are and to build on them for what comes next. Against the backdrop of this horrible inflation data, we have a new sheriff in town at the Federal Reserve. The man whose job it is to theoretically tame inflation has no tools in the box to deal with this level of crisis. The real question is whether he ever intended to.

Resources

Bloomberg Podcasts: Senate Confirms Warsh to Lead Fed as Trump Tests Its Autonomy

CNBC Television: Wholesale inflation jumps 6% in April on annual basis, biggest increase since 2022

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2026 M04 Results

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M04 Results

WSJ: Kevin Warsh’s Full Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Manhattan Institute: Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes

Hudson Bay Capital: A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System

EPI: Profits and price inflation are indeed linked

Groundwork Collaborative: Inflation Revelation: How Outsized Corporate Profits Drive Rising Costs

IEA: Oil Stocks of IEA Countries – Data Tools

CNBC: Analysis: Warsh emerges from a difficult hearing with his Fed ‘regime-change’ plan intact’

UNFTR Resources

Essay: Inflation, The Fed and What Comes Next.

Video: Stephen Miran Is Going To Be Fed Chair.

Video: The Warsh Man for the Job. Max for MTN.

Episode: 10 Economic Terms To Know in This Economy.

Episode: The End of the American Experiment.

Episode. Stupid Is As Stupid Does.

Episode: Labor Unions: From Pullman to Kellogg’s.

Episode: Stephen Miran Is Going To Be Fed Chair.

Episode: Project 2025.

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