Call it the shortest and strangest challenge to Vladimir Putin’s power in his strongman regime. Yevgeny Prigozhin – a man elevated by Putin from caterer to warlord – was one day’s march from Moscow with some 25,000 battle-hardened mercenaries behind him. Putin, who has all of his army committed to a failing conquest of Ukraine, looked ripe for a fall.

Only a last-minute deal brokered by Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko averted a civil war – for now. Despite accusing Prigozhin and his commanders of treason, Putin allowed them to leave Russia along with thousands of his soldiers. All of this makes Putin look much weaker, and the Russian war even more precarious than before. 

And that is a worrisome development. Putin has been a threat to world peace and stability for decades, but the alternatives at the moment are worse. Prigozhin himself was little more than a brutal warlord who saw an opening to seize power. The West had better start preparing for what could be a catastrophic collapse in Moscow.