Hello, and welcome to episodes six hundred and thirty five of the Vison Market Insights Podcast. I'm your host, Josh Applebomb. What's going on? Everyone? Happy? Fade the public Friday? The weekend is upon us. Guys gonna steam here into a big Saturday Sunday weekend off. But before we get to the weekend, we got a lot to get to on a big Friday. So looking back toward yesterday, guys split the difference there. I'm glad we added our Las Vegas Raiders dog to Fave line move. If you notice, you know we were looking at that number. At one point it was Jacksonville laying a point and a half, flipped all the way to Vegas minus two and a half. And with that Vegas line move dog to fave as we love to see, because remember it takes a lot to flip a favorite designation, so it tells you a smart money hit Vegas to move that number. But also that chalk system straight up favorites in the Hall of Fame game now six and old, last six years, now twelve and four, the last sixteen years. So we got Vegas, baby. And when I totally I totally forgotten I blanked on. I knew it, but I forgot. But hearing that Josh McDaniels was going back to Ohio as head coach of the as HC of the of the LVR, that was kind of a little bonus there. I knew we'd probably want to play well or have his team play well in front of his home team or family and you know, all his friends and everything. So got Vegas sadly pouring out for our under. We got a great number on that one guy's under, thirty three and a half. It closed that thirty and a half. We did see these unders do so well the last about ten years, fifteen years, five years, but sadly, too much, too much scoring there from the Vegas Raiders. I think it was like twenty two what was it, twenty two three at one point, and I'm like, go maybe those halftime or after half to him, like, oh, we may not get this thing. There's a garbage score late that killed us. If not for that score would have sailed under. But either way, not a bad debut for our our our betting here on preseason got Vegas again, could not get the under sadly, but we got a lot more preseason games I was just tip of the iceberg, wet your whistle, because beginning next week we're gonna have a lot of preseason for the next three weeks. So I'm excited, and I think we did some good work there, at least get in Vegas, and we did our part with the total. We got a thirty three and a half. What else can you do? Closes thirty and a half, We got a good number, We got some CLV just couldn't come through there with the winner. But looking back toward yesterday, guys three and four minus two point two one units, So it's kind of in a weird week. We had a five and oh, and then we gave a few unites back. Then we had a four and on and then we gave a few minutes back. So it's been back and forth here again. That's part of bettings. You have highs and lows, ups and downs. You just gotta keep grinding and keep sticking with it. But baseball was a little annoying here. You know, we look at our four bets. We got the Dodgers, we got Tampa Bay, the White Sox losing three to two to the Rangers, my Red Sox losing pathetically to Kansas City. Those are tough ones. And then aces Man aces highest scoring team. But whenever I bet you you never hit the over, it feels like I couldn't get that aces over over one seventy one and a half one seventy two. I think it landed one sixty four. But either way, guys, gonna turn the page. Got a lot to get to today. I have five Major League Baseball sweats that I don't want to share with you. We got some favorites here. I also have a total. It's always a unique thing when I have a total, because to me, totals are one of the hardest bets to win an MLB. But if I have weather system, guys, I have a stadium here, it's really hot, winds blowing out. We got two two pitchers with hot ears. We also have a good low bets hired dollar uh to the over, so stay tuned for that. I ain't quitting w NBA. I do will play here on a Steam system match to a total. We're gonna talk about that one. So one play w NBA and then it's gonna be I'm just warning you guys now, it's gonna be a big biding weekend in the UFC, because we're already holding three bets in pocket Hill, Lipski, and Luku. And if you guys didn't notice, boy did we get that thing right with Hill. Hopefully it's not a redo of the Hall of Fame game where we crushed the CLV to the under and you know, didn't get it, didn't win it. But Hill, have you guys seen this? We hit a minus two eighty, he's up to minus three thirty, so exactly as we had thought, hit that thing early, and I think I made a bet with you that would hit three hundred and it did. So we're fifty cents CLV on Hill. But I have two more, two more bets in the UFC, so give you my two more really good low bets hired dollars, including a big number. But it is a super contrarian favorite. So if you tell me we're getting a favorite only getting twenty five percent bets and he's got a line move in his direction, you're damn right. I'm gonna take that one. So a lot to get to. I'm a big fathe of public Friday, five MLB one w NBA sweat for tonight, a total of five UFC bets, including two more that we haven't discussed before we dive into all of our sweats for today and get into our housekeeping. Just wanted to address one thing. This was kind of a kind of a siren went off for me a little bit talking NFL win totals. Obviously NFL. Once the Hall of Fame game is here, it's kind of like, hey, you know, it's still summer, but you can kind of start to feel fall. I know my fiance is ready for all the you know what is it, the pumpkins, spice and all those all those different things that all the girls you get your ugs out, of course, you know, your flannel shirts. I know she's ready for that. But you kind of feel like football's in the air. I will have a full breakdown of my entire card for wind totals, but there was one wind total today that I've been going back and forth on. Understood why the under was juiced up, but I'm like, man, is this team really gonna win, you know, eleven games or less? I feel like this is a really good team. And then I saw a tweet from Ben Fox that sent me over the edge. Sent me over the edge in terms of I'm betting this thing. So I got down and I'll give you Ben Fox's tweet and I'll give you my angle, Ben Fox again, it does a great job at Viceny's, our director of digital content. But Ben Fox sweeted this out. The most lopsided under bet in the NFL at Caesar Sports right now, question mark the under eleven and a half on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with nearly eighty eight percent of the handle taking the under. So you guys know me when I see eighty eight percent of typically you want the bets. Remember when you're going to contrain, you want the percentage of bets, but eighty eight percent of money. You know, I like to know what the bets are at. If the bets are like, you know, sixty percent bets eighty eight percent money, that could be interpreted as sharp little bets hired dollars. But kind I did some research and it's like eighty percent bets eighty eight percent money. It's super super lopsided on the under for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So I said to myself, you know what I do like to follow juice. I do like low bets hired dollars. But when you're giving me, such a lopsided, crazy lopsided wind total. I'm going the other way, guys, we have a contrarian opportunity to bet Brady and the Bucks to the over. So I got down on the Bucks over eleven and a half. I put it in seeing this massively lopsided bet ticket and money handle in favor of the under. Now I get it. Brady, that came out obviously he was tampering with Miami as a Patriots fan. I don't know how I feel about that. Bill kind of was a jerk to him, and I don't blame him. But also, you're under contract with us. What are you doing talking another teams? So anyway, there is and I was talking to Gamble New about this. He really does like the under eleven and a half. If you like the under eleven and a half, I mean, I get it. You know, there's a lot of money on it. It is juiced up under. But to me, guys, this creates a very rare contrarian over opportunity. So of course the Brady stuff tampering, I know, I am concerned. I'll be fully honest. I'm concerned about the offensive line because you lost Jensen. He's gonna be out a few months Cappita left. You know, you brought in Jack Mason, but you know Brady. The way to get to Brady, you don't have to give me PTSD and think about the game that shall not be mentioned in the desert when we could have gone a perfect nineteen and oh but Patriots lose or here I am talking Patriots. Unbelievable. It'll never die. But anyway, the Bucks or Brady in particular, struggles when you have pressure up the middle. So I am nervous about this offensive line situation with the Bucks. But I still think this is a good beat. Guys. I think this team can go twelve and five. I don't think that's asking a lot. They won eleven and five and Brady's first year won the Super Bowl. Obviously, you go thirteen and four last year. I remember almost pulled that thing out against the Rams there when they got down big in that playoff game. I'm concerned about the offensive line, but I look at the rest of their roster. Guys, I still think this team is, you know, poise for twelve wins or more. Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin. You brought in Russell Gage. Your receiving corps pretty good. Obviously you have to patch up that offensive line, but you know you still have Cameron brought in, Kyle Rudolph Gronk has obviously gone here. Also on the defense, you're bringing back pretty much everybody except except JPP but Goldston Vitavea. They brought into Kiem Hicks. So got your great linebackers, you got your defensive backs. I still see a good team. So I totally get the Bucks. Love under eleven and a half. Brady's forty five years old. Where's Max Kellermanette One day he's got a fall off a cliff. Well, you know, if you keep saying it, one day, you're gonna be right. But he's been wrong for ten years now at this point. But I just think you're gonna get another great year out of Brady. You know. Also, this division is really bad, Like look at the teams that the Bucks are gonna play twice a year. The Saints win totals eight and a half. Jamis, I don't know what we're gonna get to him. You also look at in this division, Carolina win total I think is six and a half. Again, Baker, Sam Darnold that doesn't really worry me. And then of course the Atlanta Falcons. Don't tell my buddy Pritch used to used to play for the Falcons. But they're win totals four and a half or five, the lowest in the NFL. So if you can, you know, run the board in your division, that's six wins right there. Can you get six more on the rest of your schedule? I think it's doable. Guys. You've also seen a huge exodus of great players leave the NFC go to the AFC, So add it all up. I wasn't going into this offseason saying, let me hammer the Bucks over eleven and a half. But when I saw eighty eight percent of handle of money on the Bucks under, I said, hey, we got a contrarian over opportunity with my guy TB twelve. So again, it's very rare you see that lopsided betting toward an under. You know, typically you do see it to an over. Public will just you know, want it in the affirmative way, root for something in a positive direction. But it's very rare you get this contrarian over opportunity. So I'm going Bucks over eleven and a half wins and think of it this way, guys. If eighty eight percent of bets at Caesar's, and again, all these books are similar, you might see a ninety, you might see an eighty five. Again, some books are gonna be a little bit different. But eighty eight percent of bets are on the under at Caesars. Who do you think the Caesar's odds makers are rooting for. They're rooting for the bucks to go over because they can clean up and take that eighty eight percent. Only twelve percent of bets on the over, So y'all always got to think of it that way as well. When it's so lopsided, you know, the books are rooting for the opposites. They can take in that big majority of money, but they're I just wanted to, you know, throw that out at at you guys. You know, we had our first Hall of Fame game yesterday. Football is in the air, and when I saw that tweet, I said, hey, I gotta share this on the Market Insights Pod. So give me bucks over eleven and a half wins, and best of all, guys, it's even money. It's plus one hundred the unders minus one twenty. So I'll take even money bucks over eleven and a half, your number one contrarian win total of the year. Let's go Brady real quick, guys, before we dive into the rest of our sweats housekeeping, As always, if you haven't done it yet, sign up for the vs newsletter. Just go to visn dot com slash newsletter, plug in your email, and then every single day you'll wake up to the best sports betting newsletter in all of the land. Keeping you guys posted about what's going on today, what's going on in VSON, what's going on in the next few days. So today's newsletter, we let off with kind of a preview of the weekend. We have the Windham Championship West Reynolds, Brady Cannon. It's a big golf tournament. If you want some intel and some best bets, a lot of breakdowns here for UFC biding Gambling lou the First Strike podcast with Dave Ross and Jordan Sherwood, So more intel. We'll get to the second half the pod. Rest in my plays. We have NASCAR coming up. I'm gonna bet you a million dollars. These cars go really really fast around the corners and I bet you edwin. Just kidding, but anyway, I also get promost for legal sports books. Take advantage. They want your business. You want to shop for the best line. I can't wait for Massachusetts promost to pop up at the Visa newsletter page. Cannot wait for that. Also, we have our MLB Guide every single day, myself, Adam Burke, Adam as well as Derek Carty, the whole crew, Dave Tooley, our bet splits, so you get a lot of MLB coverage as well links to all of our city cast. Michael Lombardi on how quarterback decisions get made. I thought that was a really interesting article. See MacKinnon on college football quarterback rankings. We got horse Racing Intel everything you need here for free to guide you in the right direction every day and get your brain thinking about betting every single morning. It's Visa dot Com Slash Newsletters. 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Also creating a gambling community, you can direct message people and of course you know with Twitter you can also of course follow at vson Live the Mothership and myself at josh Underscore Insights. Can always DM me or shoot me an email Josh at Visa dot Com. Questions, comment, suggestions, anything I can do to help you long in your sports betting journey. You need an app to track your bets, you need a live odds page, you gotta open up a new account. You let me know, I'll guide you in the right direction the best that I possibly can. So with that being said, guys, see if we can finish off the week which has been It's been up and down, but it's been our good days have been good. We've had a couple of sweeps here this week. So let's see if we can finish off on a high note on a big fade the public Friday. So I want to start off with some Major League baseball. A few games really caught my eyes today. Guys. We have we have five bets overall, including I'll finish up with a very interesting windy hot over in a second, but first one on the board for me, I'm gonna go New York Mets. Let's go Mets baby. The Mets are at home against the Atlanta Braves. I've seen a pretty good steam move here in favor of the Mets. The Mets opened around a minus one twenty five minus one fifteen minus one twenty favorite, very modest favorite. They're up two round minus one thirty five minus one forty so I've seen a lot of steam hit New York. Uh. This pitching matchup I think favors the Mets. Here Ian Anderson nine and six four point nine nine r a but Taiwan Walker, it's been really good for the Mets this year nine and two two point seven nine ERA. The Mets are seven and two in the last nine Taiwan Walker starts. You also have some system matches here. The Mets at home as a favorite, a home favorite, they're twenty nine and thirteen sixty nine percent. That is a thirteen percent roy They're actually the number one team when it comes to being a home favorite, and they're in that situation here tonight. They'll have the slight better hitting two fifty seven verse two fifty nine, slightly better pitching three point five nine ERA verse three point six zero. They're five and three head to head against the Atlanta Braves. And then also I looked at our Visa dot com bet splits sixty two percent of bets on the Mets, so slightly public but not overwhelming, but seventy eight percent of the money. So that's a pretty good low bets hired dollar. With this line move toward New York the best home favorite team in baseball. Give me let's go, taywe Walker, give me the Mets. I got the Mets at minus one thirty five. Next play for me. This team came through for US last night. I'm going back to the well Tampa Bay Rays. Give me the Rays here, guys, they're on the road at Detroit. They open as high as like a minus one ninety favorite. See them and I'll get bet up two round minus two hundred. So they've moved about ten cents. So money's coming in here on Tampa. But they match a lot of systems for US non division road favorite sixty two percent, about a four and a half percent ROI this season. You also look at favorites who made the playoffs opponent did not sixty three percent road favorite who made the playoffs the opponent didn't. That's sixty two percent, so slightly a little bit less there, but either way, a lot of matches here on Tampa Bay. You also have a big favorite, low total so total. This one actually open eight and a half and it's down to eight. Looks like some smart money came in on the under. But also when you are a big favorite like minus one fifty really or more, but really minus two hundred and more, that's a good angle there because when you're that much of a favorite and fear amount of expected run scored, more likely they're coming from quote unquote the better teams, that would be Tampa. Like the pitching matchup Corey Klueber, veteran here seven and six four point zero three RA. Tampa Bay is four and one the last five. Corey Klueber starts, it's facing Garcia. He's O and o four point nine one er. I think he's a journeyman. He made I think his debut maybe the last game. But Tampa's three and one head to head against Detroit. They've had their number. They're hitting two thirty nine versus just two twenty six here for Detroit, better pitching staff three point four o r A versus a four point zero four RAH. This is also kind of a you know, post trade deadline. Who's going for it, Who's in a pennant race or a wild card race? Who's out of it? Tampa's in this race for the playoffs. They currently occupy I think the final playoff spot in the wild card. But Detroit is out of it. They're five and ten since the break again one of the worst records in baseball. Detroit thirty three and fifty four is a dog just twenty nine and forty eight against Rady's Tampa forty and twenty eight is a favorite. Forty four and thirty six against Ready, So I'm going Tampa Bay here, guys, kind of a big number, how but chop around so you can get anything below minus two hundred. I got the raise at minus one ninety five. See if we can get some revenge here with the Chai socks. They let us down last night, But I'm going back to the wall tonight, and I'm gonna back kind of my favorite pitcher in baseball right now. I don't think you'd you'd expect this, but it's Dylan Cease, Darrouche. I know you're a White Sox guy. How good is Dylan c Spen this year? In particular? How good has you been in July? Unreal? But this is Cease against Otto. Chicago White Sox here open around a minus one sixty five minus one fifty five favorite around there, they're up two round minus one seventy five minus one eighty. So I've seen a lot on line movement towards Chicago favorite off of Losso made the playoffs sixty four percent last year, non divisional road favorite sixty two percent. That's another couple of good systems in favor of the White Sox. We have the line move. We also have a favorite low total total. This one is eight really juiced up under looks like some under money coming in eight under minus one twenty looks like it may get down to seven and a half. We have favorite low total. And then I mentioned to the pitching matchup Dylan CS eleven and four two point zero one ERA in the month of July. He has a zero point seven six RARA. This guy's been fantastic. I don't want to jinx him knock on wood. But the White Sox are eight and one the last nine Dylan C starts Meanwhile, otto four and seven five point five o ERA. He's got an EARRA almost of six in the month of July, and really banking on the bats of the White Sox. Thirty two fifty eight didn't hit much last night. Hopefully he gets some positive regression. But hitting two fifty eight Texas hitting two forty, so big advantage there toward the White Sox. Also, Texas really struggle against readies this year. They're just twenty eight and forty three. And if you look at our Visa dot Com bet splits, this is a public play. I don't love that You're getting about eighty percent of bets on the White Sox, but they're taking in ninety four percent of the money. So that's a even though it's kind of a public play, kind of seems pro and Joe with that that bigger share of the handle on the White Sox as well. Next play for me. You know, I'm a Sox fan, but I'm going Yankees, Yankees. I'm on the Yankees on the road at Saint Louis. The Yankees opened around a minus one forty road favorite. They've been bet up to round minus one fifty. Some shops even a little bit higher, closer to like minus one fifty five. A lot of system matches here on New York non division road favorite sixty two percent. You also look at another system, I like a rest advantage. So you know, we don't talk rest advantage much in baseball. Oftentimes it's like a short week, you know for a football team or hockey you know, extra days of rest. But this is a good rest advantage for New York because they had the day off yesterday, whereas Saint Louis played yesterday. So anytime you see that favorite who had a day off playing a team who had to play the previous day. That's a pretty good advantage since twenty eighteen, those teams are sixty two percent. So you get your position players, you know, day off their feet, you can reset your bullpen, your starter gets in an extra day arrest. That's an advantage here in favor of New York. So you get the pitching matchup. Cortez nine and three, two point five three RA, and the month of July, he's got a two point six z r A and the Yankees are six and one his last seven starts. He's facing Dakota Hudson, who's six and six with a four point one o ARRA, but in the month of July has been getting knocked around. He's got a five point one four RA and his last four starts Saint Louis's oz and four. So it's also kind of a Bilo Sell High. Yankee has just lost two in a row to Seattle, whereas the Cardinals have won fourth straight. They I think they swept the Cubbies there, so it's a Bilo Sell High. It's also an interleague line move, inter league favorite good restverst tired advantage. Give me the Yankees here. I got the Yankees at minus one forty eight, and then the last MLB play guys for today my Red Sox. I don't know if they're gonna win tonight. I hope they will, but I had to lay off. They're getting a lot of bets and they opened like minus one fifteen. They've actually dipped a little bit, but I did see a lot of money hit this over. So this was kind of the weather System match over that I was talking about. I'm going over Red Sox Kansas City over nine. So first off, this total open at some shops eight and a half got bet up to nine. Any books that open nine, you actually open nine like even money minus one ten or even nine like under minus one fifteen. Now the juice is completely flipped. Now it's nine over minus one twenty. So you've seen a lot of money in juice movement toward this over, and I think this may even get to nine and a half at some shops. So you definitely want to and hopefully the pod can come out in time. But find that nine before it gets to nine and a half. That way a five four game, you know you want to push instead of lose. But hopefully this thing sails over because this is a good weather match. If you look at Kaufman Stadium tonight in Kansas City, it's gonna be ninety four degrees. It's gonna be really hot. The wind is blowing out about eight to ten miles an hour, So we have our weather system match. Wind blowing out, heat and humidity. Tough for the pitcher. Batters get to be in the dugout with you know, a cool rag on their neck and the and the fan in their face, so while the pitchers baking in the sun. So advantage there to the hitters. You also look at Kansas City, they've been hitting some overs recently, five and two to the over their last seven. Last six matchups between these teams, the overs four and two. Two pitchers on the bump. Josh Winkowski for Boston four and five with an the ARAA of five. But he started off well and he's been terrible lately. He's got an the ARAA over six in the month of July. And Zach Grinky, the ageless wonder here, I think he's like thirty nine now three and six four point four one e r A. But in the month of July is the ARAA is closer to five. But really the Kuta grat what really sent me over? You know, pun intended to bet this over arvcent dot com bet splits. The over is getting fifty three percent of bets, so it's raked down the middle pretty much fifty fifty. But the over is getting eighty two percent of money. That's a plus thirty plus twenty nine percent smart money differential, So tells me a lot of respect. Like tells me the public's undecided. But the wise guys are really hitting the over here. So I'm going over. Let's get some runs here in Kansas City, and hey, can my Red Sox win a game? Let's see. But I'm on the over nine with Boston in Kansas City. So our five bets here today, guys, can we get three or more? Give me the Mets minus one thirty five, Tampa Bay minus one ninety five, Chicago White Sox minus one seventy five, New York Yankees minus one forty eight, and the Boston Red Sox Kansas City over nine. That being said, guys gonna take a very very short break here, but we can get back. We got much more to get to. On a fade the public Friday, we gotta talk w NBA couldn't get our over last night with the Aces, but I do have a system match. Hopefully get our revenge tonight, and then we gotta finish up with a big biting card in the UFC. We're already holding three bets in pocket Hill Lipsky lu K. I'll give you an update on those numbers, and then I added two more because I'm always thinking. On Friday, i always get the latest batch of data from bet MGM, and I'm always looking out for those contrarian favorites. Remember, favorites are always gonna get not always, but vast majority of the time, get a vast majority of the bets. Public wants to bet the favorite they're expected to win. They want to bet them. When a favorites only getting twenty five percent, when a favorites only getting forty percent, you know I'm gonna get behind it. So we got a couple of conturian favorites to add to our biting card for tomorrow. There you have it, guys, first half the pot here in the books don't go anywhere. When we return, finishing up strong with w NBA and with UFC. As we fade into I fade the public Friday, and a big weekend ahead here, guys, So don't go anywhere, Gonna finish up strong. And Episode six thirty five of the Vison Market Insights Podcast with me or buddy, your host, the guy you grind and sweat with in the arena, Approaching betting from a data driven Conturian angle, your buddy, Josh applebom stick with us, guys. We'll be right back, all right, everyone, We are back at it after looking back toward last night, three and four minus two point two one units. But as I mentioned, it's been a Jacquel and Hide weekend, a Jackel and Hide week I guess, you know, day before that four and o plus two point seven one units, day before that three and five minus three point one nine, day before that five and oh plus three point three seven. So I think as better as I always just want to grind out, you know, a half unit, a unit, just keep on getting as many, you know, plus money numbers as you can. But sometimes the volatility, you know, it'll he'll know, kind of give you a little bit of a roller coaster ride here. So hopefully today, if things have been going the way they've been going, I think we're due for a plus money day today. So, as we mentioned, guys start off the pod talking about that wind total with Tampa Bay. I can't believe such heavy betting is on the under. I'll go Brady over eleven and a half. In a contrarian spot, we talked to MLB five bets overall Mets, Tampa Bay, the White Sox, the Yankees, and the Red Sox over. Now, let's get to a couple of other sweats here, so w NBA we could not get sadly our aces over yesterday. I landed one sixty two. I think it said one sixty four before. But I am gonna go back to the well with a play for today. So I'm looking at the sparks in the dream over one fifty seven and a half. So a couple of things jumped out to me with this one guy's number one, the total open at one fifty seven. We've seen it, get bet up two one fifty seven and a half. Shop around you may be able to find a one fifty seven. I see one book there, but it's really juiced up. Maybe that'll leave you before you know it. But I think there are some reasons to like this over. So first off, when you see a Steam move to the over, Now you really want at least a point. If you look at just at least a half point, it's not quite as good. But that Steam move at least to point forty four and thirty four fifty six percent to the over. That's telling me that when you take in some big money to the over, typically it cashes. The Sparks are the number one over team this year. They're eighteen and twelve to the over, the Dreamer sixteen and fifteen to the over. But also the Sparks they have the number eleven defense. And remember there's only twelve teams in w NBA, so they have the second worst defense in the entire league. Now, what really makes me like this over, aside from a little bit of movement here steam to the over, would be the pace of play. If you look at the Sparks guys, they are number four fastest paced team in the w NBA. The dream are number three. So you have the two of the top four fastest paced teams going head to head. So what does that mean? You get up and down the court quite a bit. Hopefully you score a lot of points, more possessions, more opportunities to score, and hopefully you cash a high scoring game here, so that's another reason to like it. And then last one, looking at our Visa dot com bet splits, sixty percent of bets are on the over, but it's taking in eighty five percent of the money. That is a plus What is that plus seventeen percent differential there to the over. So tell tells me that you're getting some respected money hitting that over and really causing this line to tick up a little bit. So we have a small steam moved to the over. We have Sparks number one over team bad defense, second worst than the w NBA. We have two of the fastest paced teams, and we have a really good bet forst dollar split. Sounds good to me, guys. I'm going Sparks over one fifty seven and a half. That is my bet in the w NBA. So as we finish up the pod here with a little bit of biting in the arena quickly to reset our card the three bets that we've already talked about one we're looking pretty damn good on right now, Jamal Hill, this is a play that luckily we're able to bet. I think back on Tuesday, try to get out in front of it because he was younger thirty one years old verse thirty eight, and he's taller and inch taller. He's got a longer each three inchre each advantage seventy nine inches verse seventy six. But we saw Hill back on Tuesday go from minus two sixty to minus two eighty. They said, okay, minus two eighty. You know that's a little bit of a high number. Do I really want to bet that? I'm at risks? Not bet to win, guy, That means I'm risking one unit only getting you know, a little more than a third of a unit back. But then I said to myself, hey, I think this line is gonna get jacked up, and it, Boy, did it get jacked up. This line to Jamal Hill is now minus three twenty minus three thirty. So again not here to you know, pay yourself on the back. But I'm glad that we identify that a little bit early, and I think it goes to show you, you know, if you really want to get good at a sport, you know, we have our model with UFC Younger, taller, longer reach line move and hopefully you have good betting percentages in your favor as well. But you gotta kind of target these a little bit early and kind of hopefully anticipate a move that's just gonna go higher. So if I told you want to bet this minus two eighty, you may say that's too high. But now it's minus three thirty. So the minus two eighty looks pretty good right now, So holding onto hill. We have Lipski as well, also bet Lipski. Here. Lipski is fighting Priscilla katch Era. She opened like minus one fifty, she's up two round minus one seventy five. We got around minus one seventy minus one eighty, So not a huge move there overall, but still holding on to Lipski. Luk Luk is another one that we added Luque. We got Luk actually I think minus one seventy minus one eighty. You know, he's minus one ninety. I see a minus two hundred with Luk, so kind of a mini hill, uh, you know, kind of closing line value play there. And Luk what we liked about him a couple of reasons. He's one year younger, he's got a one in treach advantage, and then his opponent had it was just two losses in his last three bouts and Luke lost for the first time in three years. I think he's gonna be maybe humbled and really pumped there to get back in the winter circle. So those are the three we're holding, Luk, Lipski, and Hill. Now to add a couple more, And I tell you guys this every week, but I always look forward to Friday when the bet MGM, you know, bet first dollar breakdown comes into my inbox. And I added a couple more based on some really really good contrarian opportunities here. So the first one, it's a big number, but it is so conturiant I gotta take it. So it is Zach Pauga Pete or Pouga Pauga Pauga. He's fighting Mohammed Usman. I believe that is Kamara Usman's brother, Uh, not his good brother. Maybe he's maybe he's one of the Manning brothers, not the famous eliar or Peyton, but the other one. But I'm gonna go Zach Pouga or Pauga. He opened minus two forty he's now up to minus two seventy five. So it's like, again, how are you laying a minus two seventy five? But this is unbelievable at bet MGM. And again, these are the percentages that we've used all year to cast these concrrian opportunities. In the UFC, Pauga is getting twenty five percent of bets but ninety percent of the money. Unbelievable, This concrrian favorites only getting a quarter of the bets but almost all the money. Now that's a good thing because he doesn't have a lot of other advantages. They're both six two. He's thirty four's opponents thirty three, so he's a year older. He has a reach disadvantage seventy nine inches verse seventy six, so he doesn't have the youth. He doesn't have the reach. They're the same height. But Powuga is six and oh I was reading he used to be a football player, I think from Colorado State. I almost feel like I kind of remember him. I don't know if he's a running back. I forget. But when you of me guys a favorite getting twenty five percent of bets and the line goes in his favorite and only twenty five percent bets but ninety percent money, I gotta take that. That is a massive When I saw twenty five percent and ninety percent, that's an auto bet for me, so no, it's a big number, but again betris not bets win. I am on Zach Pouga minus two seventy five and then the last one. Hopefully we can get this one because it is the lowest number and the best. You know, pay out here, Julianna Miller. Julianna Miller is fighting Brogon Walker or Brogden Walker. I don't know how to pronounce this woman's name, but give me Julianna Miller. I'm on Miller here right off the bat. She's got a nice line move. Miller opened minus one twenty. She's up to minus one thirty see one book minus one thirty five. Miller has the line move. She's got a big youth advantage. She's only twenty six years old. Her opponent Walker is thirty four years old, So fade fighters five years are older, FADE fighters close to thirty five or olders. She's thirty four, but also a big height advantage. Julianna Miller is five foot six, her opponent is five three. No, they both have a sixty seven in treach, so the reach is the same, but a big height advantage, a big youth advantage, a line moved toward Miller, and then also the cherry on top here forty six percent bets, but seventy four percent of the money is on Julianna Miller. So that is a pretty good low bets hired dollar. Technically contrarian. That's a favorite. Getting less than thirty percent, that's by definition contrarian, so less than at the tickets, but almost three quarters of the money. So I added Julienna Miller, shop around. I got her at minus one thirty five. You might people to get something lower. I see a minus one twenty five out there. But for our our five bouts here, can we get all five? Can we get four or more? Give me Hill minus two eighty Now he's minus three thirty Lipski round minus one seventy ish lu K minus one seventy ish Pauga twenty five percent bets, twenty ninety percent money minus two seventy two is the number I got. And then Miller, Julianna Miller. Let's go Miller minus one thirty five. There you have it, guys, another day, another dollar. I'm gonna steam in here into the weekend. Hopefully guys are staying cool. Continues to be ridiculously hot here in New England. I would also mention I just mentioned this on Lombardi Line. I talked about the over or the contrarian over with the Bucks, but also Vegas Raiders. I'm on the Raiders over eight and a half. That was minus one ten eight and a half pretty much all summer. Now it's minus one fifteen to the over at Draft Kings, and I do like this team. And I do like that Hunter renfro over seventy seven and a half catches because McDaniels gets the best out of those slot guys. I saw it with you know, Troy Brown, Welker, Amandola and Edelman obviously, and then I think you've mentioned this before, but give me the Jags under six and a half minus one thirty. I think the Jags, maybe you're a little bit better than three and fourteen last year, but I think it's gonna be a long year. I think this team is not very good. But there you have it. Guys. As I mentioned, reminder, if you enjoy the Marketing Insights podcast, if it's helped you cash some bets, if you feel like you're getting sharper in the arena every single day, or you're learning more about betting or getting more comfortable. You're beating some closing lines, you're taking a little bit more of a Conturian angle, you're shopping for the best line, you're tracking your bets through an app, whatever it may be. Maybe you parlaying everything and now you're more of a flat better But if the pot has helped you in anyway, and you want to let me know you appreciate the hard work I put in grinding the sharp contrarian, data driven philosophy every single day. And there's one thing I ask of you. Buy my book. Pick up a copy of The Everything Guy to Sports Betting, available at Amazon or Barnes and Noble. It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bett in person or online. Had a shop for the best line, as well as chapters on all the major sports. So again, football's in the air. We got the Hall of Fame game. Now we're off to the races. So if you want to brush up, full chapter on how to bet NFL, full chapter on how to bet college football. It is included in my book if you want to pick one up, if you already have, thank you, Thank you, and I really appreciate it. Thank you again. Well, that being said, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook and New Hampshire Fox was or Mohicans Son down in Connecticut, break and handle records every day in the Great State of New York, and also saw a tweet like New York didn't have a billion in handle. It was only nine hundred million. It's the fifth straight month that they've gone down. Well, yeah, they've gone down because all this. You know, it's the summer, it's the slow months. Like people are trying to spin it like betting is decreasing, which it is, but it's not for lack of interest. It's just because football season's been gone, and you know, NBA's over, NHL's over, it's just baseball. So obviously your betting handle's gonna go down again. I just want to just kind of annoyed me, But then of course I can't wait to tell you to meet me at the Encore in Everett because yes, in Massachusetts we are legal now or I guess it's been passed or still waiting on the governors sign it. It's gonna take a few months to get it going, but pretty soon my shupie will have to change at the end and incorporate some Massachusetts sports books. I still can't believe it. Pinched myself every day that really happened, Yes it did. Or of course out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lows us possible is found at the south Point or at stadium swim with your feet in the pool at Circa it's when Sharp Contraim plays with Storey in the crew. We're getting Victory Burger indoors or going to the Mantle Bay or the West Gate, my two other favorite books. Wherever it may be, you're gonna walk up to me here'n show me a couple of hot dogs from last night, show me a Dodger's ticket, show me a Tampa Bay ticket. Just don't show me a Red or White Sox ticket. And then, also, guys, you know, show me that Hall of Fame Raiders ticket. You can rip up that under ticket. Sadly, we got great closing line value. Beat the closing line by three points and you still lose. That's always annoying. But show me that raiders, doctor favorite. The raid is not the Oakland raid is. The Vegas raid is. And I'm on that over eight and a half. And I'm on of course Renfro over seventy seven a half catches. But guess what, guys, First one's on me, next one's on you. We're gonna post about the book, so that sharp contray and plays all night long. I wish you the best of luck, have a fantastic Friday. We will be on betting Cross America three to four pm each your time today, myself and Pritch taking into the weekend. And of course I hope you have a great weekend in general. Well back at it on Monday, So enjoy the weekend, enjoy the biting in the arena. I hope you're staying cool in this heat wave. And I wish you the best of luck, and don't forget to tip your ticket writer. So have a great weekend, guys, good luck and have a and have a great time. Good luck and take its pitch first day. I cast the pitch the first day, looking