Hello, and welcome to episode six hundred and twenty six of the Visa in Market Insights podcast. I'm your host, Josh apple Bomb. What is going on everyone? Happy Monday. Hope you had a fantastic week and hope you stayed cool. It was pretty hot out there no matter where you are, but especially in New England, guys. But we're in the last week of July. Can you believe it? The summer is flying by, and before you know it, next week, a week from this Thursday, we have our first NFL football game, the Hall of Fame Game, So quick recapp here, guys. Again, we'll have a full breakdown and you know we have to get into it today. I do have a couple of win totals I wanted to mention. Uh So I've mentioned these before, but on Lombardi Line today, which I'm gonna be jumping on here in a bit, Michael and Dave Ross are talking about the a f C North, So I'll reupdate and give you some new numbers here on two teams that I think are a great way to attack that division based upon kind of the you know, the unknown right here. Basically we're waiting on DeShawn Watson, will he play, will he not? How long will the suspension be? Well, there are two teams I think you should attack to their over based on how long these guys, how long Watson's gonna be out. So we'll hit on some football talk. But we do have again the Hall of Fame game next week, so it's next Thursday. But a couple of things. We did see a move towards Vegas here and again this is just kind of fun to talk about. I'm not gonna I really bet much right now, but I WI have a full breakdown of how to approach the preseason. It's totally different than betting on the NFL regular season. Obviously, it doesn't really matter if you win or not. Uh it's more of, you know, trying to get out of there and not get hurt and stay healthy and kind of get your system in. I would mention one thing though, John Harbaugh, this is something that we're gonna talk about the preseason. Leaning on head coaches hardball in the preseason. One thirty seven and uh no, suddenly get this straight thirty six and fift A t S sevent cover right up nineteen. Unit's hardball. So there are coaches that you know, take the preseason very seriously. They're coaches that don't take it very seriously. But those are little things. We want to look at. Line movement, of course, you know, looking at Vegas and jacksonvill the Hall of Fame game bagas went from plus one and a half to minus two, so movement in their direction. I'm looking at the under as well. Hall of Fame game. One system I have with the Hall of Fame game is it's super sloppy. And I threw this at Pritch last week on Betting across America. But when you kind of have these games, especially the very first one, you really don't give out much in terms of secrets or you know, exotic plays. It's very vanilla. You have a lot of backups in there, you have a lot of guys who probably will never take a snap in the NFL, but you tend to have these very low scoring games. So we did see that total thirty three and a half down to thirty three. At some shops you can still find the hook thirty three and a half. That's gonna be my play for next Thursday. It's pretty much a play I make every single year. It's almost like the Army Navy game, take the under. Hall of Fame game. Take the under as well. But anyway, guys a lot to get to today Big Major League Baseball slate. I have five games that caught my eye, including some interesting numbers here, a couple of dogs, some favorite moves as well. We'll talk about the NFC North as I mentioned the NBA. Uh, this kind of blew my mind. I just saw, um, whoa jan It's actually funny. Brian Windhorst kind of threw some cold water on this, but woa too. Again, He's not my favorite reporter anymore. I'll never I'll never let down the fact that he completely screwed us on Jabari Smith number one overall. But would did tweet out today kind of out of nowhere, the Kevin Durant news. The trail was quiet, here, the trail was cold, and then uh would tweet out that Kevin Durant to the Celtics could be alive. Uh So, this to me is a little worrisome for the Celtics. The reports that they would include Jalen Brown in a trade, also Derek White some picks as well. It sounds like the Nets said note to that. But I'm a little worried, including Jalen Brown. This the guy, very proud player, very smart player. Uh. And again if he's including these trade talks, I don't know if this upsets him or maybe he only has two years left on his deal. They want to say, hey, we'll trade you because you don't want to resign and you'll be going in two years anyway. So I wanted to hold on to Brown and Tatum. I want to build around them. But this news was pretty huge because if this were to happen, massive movement on the futures market. So again we'll see if it has legs. Our guy wind Horse did not believe that they were new talks and he called them old talks. But Celtics right now, I noticed they did creep up to when the NBA title there plus four fifty right now. I feel like last time I looked there plus five hundred or plus five fifty. So maybe that is the odds. You know, the odds makers kind of hedging this and saying if they were to get Durant, we're gonna drop this number a little bit. Their plus two hundred favorites in the East, and just some interesting M v P numbers here. Kadi plus eight fifty Tatum plus fourteen hundreds. So we shall see. But this is now taking over all of talk radio in Boston because apparently the Durant trade. I thought he's just gonna go back to the nets. They're uh kind of called his bluff, but who knows, Maybe there is a deal to be made, although I have mixed feelings about it as a Celtics fan. Uh. In terms of what's going on in my neck of the woods, guys, David Ortiz, anyone watched the Hall of Fame uh speech yesterday? It was fantastic. Actually went back to Western mass went to tangle Wood, so on outdoor show with the family, which was great. Metal Pup got to go in the big yard and go on the stream. She always loves. Going back home to my parents house. Uh. Me and my dad watched the entire thing, uh in the same room above the above the garage you called the office. It's kind of just like the hangout room, but the same exact place where we watched two thousand four when I was seventeen years old, Ortiz hit multiple walk offs against the Yankees. To me, that was the pinnacle of my my Boston sports fandom. But we watch Ortizes Hall of Fame switch together. I think both of us had a tier in our eye. It was pretty cool. Uh. In terms of the Massachusetts another big week for me, guys, and anyone who's in mass Chusees and anyone who's rooting for League of Sports Betting, because there are seven days left in the late legislative session this session. This is it, guys, We're going into the I would say, right now it's top of the eighth. You know, by Wednesday it's bottom of the eighth, and then you know by Thursday it's top nine, and then it's bottom nine. I mean, we're in the stretcher on here. Either Massachuset is gonna legalize betting or they're gonna let me down and crush my heart and break my soul and dance on my grave one more time here. Hopefully not. I do have a source here who I dialed up and said it's still looking pretty positive, which to me is a good sign because I was reading. Uh, if you just like google Massachusetts sports betting, remember they have until July thirty one to get it done. Uh, there are some articles you're reading that like they're far apart. It's not gonna happen. So there's kind of bad news out there from a media standpoint, But my sources still saying that they're working hard on it and they're getting close. So I will take that as a positive here. But I'll be on pins and needles all week. Let's please, please, please find a way to get this thing past hashtag let us bet. Looking back toward last time we talked guys on Friday, uh, that was a three and four day minus one point o one units. We did get Cleveland as a plus money dog, Tampa Bay got the over in the Philly game, lost Baltimore St. Louis in Texas UM, and we did lose the w NBA play sadly, of course your best players out for Connecticut doesn't matter. Minnesota could not get it done. But on a positive note, we got back in the Green with biting in the arena. Now it's a capital B biting, no more lower case biting. It's capital B biting because we were a nice little two and oh it's nice to get back here in the green. Jack Hermanson the joker, our guy, younger, taller, longer, reach line move good. But bet percentages there came through for the team and cry law or Kira Law. I can't even pronounce the guy's name right, but we got the winning ticket there, uh younger and then had a good move and had that re membert bets but eighty seven percent money. Anytime you see that super contry and favorite UFC, I always want to play it. So able to escape there with a two and oh plus one point four one units overall profitable weekend, guys. But as I mentioned, we're gonna talk a lot of baseball today, put on some NFL win totals, and kind of get back in the groove of things here as we get into the final week of the July calendar here, and before you know what, guys, it's gonna be You know, it's kind of like still kind of quiet, still doing baseball, looking at our futures card. But just get ready because it's the calm before the storm. Before you know it, football is gonna be back, and it's just gonna be crazy town once again, but a good crazy town, not a bad crazy town. Been away guys, before we dive into our place for today, real quick housekeeping. As always, if you haven't done it yet, sign up for the Visa newsletter just go to Visa dot com slash newsletter. All you gotta do is plug in your email and then every single day you'll wake up to the best sports spending newsletter in all the land. And yes, I'm biased, but I think I'm being honest too. We just pack a ton of great information into the newsletter every single day, waking up and keeping it plugged in and what's going on Visa, but more importantly, what's going on in the sport spending market. So there's a there's a crazy finish in a NASCAR race. I really don't have the details here, but I was reading about it a little bit. Uh so anyone betting NASCAR. The Eminem's Fan Appreciation four hundred made history here. It was actually the first time. Let's get this trade. You have to go back to nineteen sixty to find the last time there was an apparent race winners car was disqualified via post race inspection. But it did happen yesterday. Uh not once, but twice, resulting an important lessoning for better is always checked the house rules. So more information on that, including reaction there from Adam Burke and Johnny Avello, DraftKings sports book director. But then the news letter. You also get Visa programming running of all the show's guests and host that day. We're starting to really get a lot more college football coverage here from the team Matty Humans and the follow the Money crew. Of course, we have every day throughout the baseball season, our Monday, our Monday MLB Betting Guide here, my Sharp Report every day, Derek Carty, Adam Burke, the whole team promost legal sports books at Michael Lombardi is ramping up his NFL training camp training camp coverage looking at different teams here. Also, we'll have links to all of our city cast contests, how to bet one on one sports betting, one on one betting education, all included in the newsletter. Again, cost you nothing. If you're listening to this pod, if you're hearing my voice right now, you better be getting the newsletter every morning. That's Visa dot Com Slash Newsletter. It's free and it's a great way to stay plugged into the market. Then, of course, you're looking to take that next step in your sports betting journey, become a Visa All Access member. Just go to Visa dot Com Slash subscribe. You get every pointsher weekly magazine you get all the afternoon best bets from all your favorite guests and hosted Visa. You get all of our betting guides, including our college Football betting guide coming out this week, as well as a livestream of all the shows and everything behind the Visa dot Com pay wall. So it's a great, great time to sign up here. You can do a trial and go monthly. You can save the most money by getting the annual that's Visa dot Com slash subscribe. Then, of course get on Twitter. Uh follow of course at Visa Live the Mothership. You can follow me at Josh Underscore Insights. You knows dm me or shoot me an email Josh at Visa dot com. And you don't need me, don't need me to tell you how important Twitter is. Breaking news, ranky information, MLB lineups coming out, starting pitchers getting scratched, woas bombs, windhorse, you know, throwing a you know, some cold water on a woag bomb. But either way, guys, Twitter great resource for betters. Don't don't don't you know forfeit value or forfeit information. It could help you catch a bet if you jump on a number that's too slow and hasn't moved yet that's Visa dot that's at Visa Live at Josh Underscore Insights and Josh at Visa dot Com. So, as I mentioned, guys, major League Baseball, let's go MLB. I like grinding MLB this time of year, especially second half, as we mentioned before and mentioned on betting across America and across the airwaves here on Visa, you know, second half. To me, when it comes to baseball, I get more excited in the first half because by this time now in baseball is such a data driven sport. We have so much information data, um you know, sample size here on all these teams, and we also are coming towards the All Star break. So really, to me, that's when it heats up. Knowing you know who bought, who sold, you know who's making moves, who isn't. Uh, we know who's good and who's bad. Motivation becomes a factor here. Who's going for a Pennant race, Who's you know, calling up their Triple A guys and looking towards next year. So I think, to me, once you get past that deadline, that's really when it heats up and we can make some hay here. It's been a pretty good year. Either way in baseball. So let's see if we can keep keep it going here as we turn the page to a new week, the last week in July. So that being said, guys, I have five bets here, so if we get three of them or more, first on the board for me, Cincinnati Reds get at home against the Miami Marlins. Guys, this is a Cincinnati Reds played for me because it is so fishy it makes absolutely no sense now, uh to me. You know, when you're betting, you wanna um create a create a cap, you know, create a situation where, uh, if you're a lawyer, like Slipping Jimmy, you're better call Saul. Which, by the way, the fourth last episode is to night. I'm on Penzan Needles. I can't wait to watch it. But when you're Slipping Jimmy, you've cut some corners here, but you're also building a case, you know, checking off as many boxes as you can to better game. So, whether that's line movement, betting percentages, betting systems, you know, starting pitcher matchups, you know, nitty gritty details that we always look at and left the ready splits home road all that, but there's also games where you know, not everything lines up perfectly, but it's just so fishy that it doesn't make any sense, and you want to be on that fishy side that doesn't make sense. So, for example, I'm going Cincinnati redsday. Guys. They're at home against Miami, as I mentioned, but I'll put it see this way. It's very simple. Why are the Reds, who are thirty six and fifty eight favored in this game over the Marlins were under thet and thirty So one team is far better than the other team, but yet the bad team is favored. And it's not just that Cincinnati opened as a favorite. This is low dolo against Rogers. It's at the line dropped. Public is grabbing Miami, saying are you crazy making since your favorite, get the line move further to since he so this would be that classic favor the trendy dog reverse line move on a conturrian favorite, Public taking Miami and the plus money. But guys, this line has moved towards the red Legs. Maybe maybe Pete, maybe Pete Rose, our buddy has got some action on his Reds today. It's always funny. Rose was like, I never bet on the Reds. Sorry, I never bet against the Reds, but you could tell you bet against them, because if he didn't bet on them, that means he didn't like him that day. So I always find that to be really funny. But anyway, since Sat, he opened as those like a minus one ten, minus one fifteen home favorite through up to minus one thirty. So we've seen this line rise pretty big here in favor of since despite being the worst team with the worst record. Uh, to me, part of this is, you know, um number one, since that he did have a really good series against St. Louis. I couldn't believe it, but I think they what they take two or three against St. Louis, I believe so um, which is surprising against St. Louis pretty good team. But Reds are still at home. Uh, they're playing Miami, who has struggled here on the road. But maybe part of it is is Rogers the picture here from Miami. He's four and nine with a five point four six r A been pretty bad all year, but in his eighteen starts, Miami is five and thirteen, So you have a since team. Again, if I give you like the batting averages, the r A, the home road, who's fit? You know, you know your record as a favorite, record as a dog against lefties, all that stuff, you know, since he really doesn't check off any boxes. But yet their concuring and the line's going in their favor. This is one of those games. To me, guys where I want to be on the fish east side. Give me Cincinnati. Why on earth is the worst team favorite and becoming more of a favorite? That's the key. Maybe they open a minus one twenty favorite. Now it's down to a pick them. Okay, bad team. Maybe the line was too high, Miami did have value their line drops, but no, that did not happen. The line open since the small favorite become more of a favorite here. So I'm gonna follow this fishy move. Let's do it for Pete Rose, the hit king. Here. Give me Cincinnati red Legs, their big red machine. I'm on the big red machine at minus one seven. Next play for me, Uh, I'm not gonna outsort myself on this one. Give me the Atlanta Braves Braves on the Road at Philadelphia. Wrote about this one in the Visa newsletter, but this one opened around minus one fifty Braves on the Road. They're allly up to minus one seventy five at this point, so we've seen some good movement in favor of Atlanta here. A lot of systems h here here being checked off for Atlanta. So number one road favorites three twenty and two oh to sixty one percent r oh I. Road favorites who made the playoffs and their opponent did not won sixty six and sixty five percent and eight percent r o I also a favorite awful loss made the playoffs last year seven and nineties seven sixty six percent with around a seven and a half sent r o I. I do notice the Braves lost yesterday to the Angels nine to one. Couldn't believe they're minus two thirty favorite in that one. But I really like this pitching matchup, aside from the big steam hitting Atlanta going from minus one fifty minus one seventy five. Uh, it's Freed and Suarez. Freed has been great this year ten and three two point six f r A, as Farraz hasn't been terrible seven and five four point seven r A. But Atlanta, when Freed takes the bump, they play very well. He pitches well and they give him run support. Knock on what hope that continues? But in Max Freed's last eleven starts Atlanta's ten and one. This guy has gotten better as the year has gone on. Also, Atlanta with some good numbers here as a favorite, fifty and twenty four and they're expected to win. They win. And then also against lefties, they really mash lefty. So Maureen, Chase, where are you at? WHOA? By the way, Maureen is also a a masshole, as I say it with all the love in my heart. So I know Maureen's on pins and needles. Let's get this thing past Maureen. We got a week left. But anyway, they are twenty four and ten against lefties, the Atlanta Braves. That is a good edge as well. So we got a good steam move towards Atlanta on the road. We got a lot of good system matches. Is have Max Freed on the bump? Who has been great? Uh in Atlanta matches? Lefties? Give me the Atlanta Braves got the bravos at minus one seventy five. Next play for me, We'll take a shot on a dog here. I don't know what it is, I don't know what's going on here, but I'm gonna go Baltimore. Give me Baltimore. Orioles. Guys, gonna take a shot on a dog today. This is Tampa Bay at Baltimore. Both teams lost their first series post All Star Break. UH. Probably more disappointing with the Tampa Bay raised though you lose two or three at Kansas City. Lowly Kansas City Baltimore. UH went one and two against the Yankees. Obviously that they're the Yankees. But um, I think it's a good spot to back Baltimore guys. Uh, this is a classic division divisional dog SEMIHI total, it's eight and a half. I guess you're right on the edge there. You really want nine or more, but divisional dog, big reverse line move. You have about two out of three bets here on the Tampa Bay Rays. This is Kluber against Austin voth Um. But I noticed here, guys, you look at Tampa Bay. They open around a minus one favorite. They're getting two thirds bets. So we always think about it this way. If you're getting a big majority of bets, you know open minus one forty five shouldn't be up to minus one fifty minus one sixty. Let's go on the other way. Despite getting a big public share of betting, Tampa Bay here, Tampa Bay's fallen minus one forty five all the way down to minus one twenty, so that's a big steam move in favor of Baltimore only getting about a third of bets. But the Oh's have gone from around plus one where the plus one thirty down to plus one ten ish around there, So I jumped on Baltimore plus one ten. They have value as a divisional dog in the division again because of the built in familiar familiarity levels the playing field benefits the team getting some plus money. Uh. You also have Klueber, who's been going this year six and five three point seven three r A, but in the month of July has got an ear a four point seven once who's gotten worse here as the year has gone on in Austin both not great and not terrible one and one three point four to r A, but he's got a three point at sixty r A in the month of July in Baltimore. Kind of the way Atlanta's pitch played so well with Freed on the bump, Baltimore six and one the last seven Austin both starts. There's another kind of fishy play again. If public's all over Tampa Bay. Why is this line falling? Give me a super concurian home divisional dog. Hey, oh's I saw you one? What ten in a row? Twelve in a row? Whatever it was, Let's get back on a wind streak here, let's get it done. Give me Baltimore guys plus one tenant home. Let's go. Ohs. This one kills me, pains me to say it, but I'm gonna bet against my Red Sox guys. My Red Sox are in a funk, a big funk here. Uh. I don't know what's going on. I think to me, if you look internally and you listen to talk radio like I do every day and annoy your fiance listening to Felgar and maz uh the Red Sox, there's kind of internal stuff going on, like they don't know if they're gonna buy yourself at the deadline. But more importantly, there's a lot of contracts strife. Xander Bogart's will he be let go? Are they gonna resign him? There? They glowbald Raphael Devers divers is now in the d L. There's just not a lot going right with a Red Sox also lose Chris Sale with a broken pinky um so just bad juju with Boston there one and nine their last ten, there three and thirteen their last sixteen games. I like Cleveland here. I like Cleveland here to get it done hopefully on the road. This is police sack against Nick Pavetta. By the way, Cleveland, will they split? Uh split a four game series there against the White Sox. Um. But this line opened Red Sox around a minus one fifteen home favorite. Uh. They're now down to pretty much a pick them minus one ten or like minus one on five both sides. So uh. Public is still saying give me the Red Sox. Surprisingly, they're getting about sixty percent of bets. Yet this is went from Boston slight favorite to now I'll pick them price. Um. A couple of things I like about this one. Pavetta. You know it kills me to say it too. I'm a Socks fan, but he's been getting absolutely lit up in the month of July. He's made three starts in July. He's got a thirteen and a half e r A A couple of those games against the Yankees give about a million and a half runs here, Police s Ax got a two and seven record. Uh, Pavetta's got an eight and seven record, but I think it's a good example of you know, your record sometimes can be deceiving despite going to and seven with police Ac it's got a four point oh two r. A. Pavetta's got one round of one game about five record eight and seven, but a four point five e R right, So to me, it just speaks to run support. But Cleveland would match as a classic road division. It's start not a division dog, a road dog with a reverse line move and a dog high total told, this one is nine and a half. It is just up under minus one twenty. And it's kind of a gross day in Boston to day, like there's a lot of these thunderstorms coming through. It's actually very dark. Believe it or not. We need it. We need the rain badly. Your boys working on the garden, working on the grass, and it's like burnt grass everywhere. So I'm actually praying for rain here. But uh, to me, that's kind of something to keep an eye out for if these thunderstorms come in. But you do have a fenway. Uh wind is blowing, it's blowing out a little bit, but it's definitely a little bit cooler we've had all these ninety degree days. It's down to like seventy five today, which is a godsend here. But either way, guys, socks are a complete hot mess, dumpster fire, and you have a kind of a slight favorite down to a pick them. I'm going Cleveland here with a little bit of if you can find any plus money, you may just be like minus one oh two minus one oh one. But again, shop around can get even money plus a hundred, that will be my play. But I got Cleveland here, guys at minus one oh two, so that is my play. Let's go tribe, last play in the night for me. Not a huge There was a big line move. I wrote about this some one in the letter. It came back a little bit, so they're definitely listened by back. But I'm gonna stick with my original bet here give me san Diego, give me the Fathers on the Road at Detroit. Uh. San Diego open around a minus one fifty favorite at one point, and I wrote about the newsletter and I went to bed. They got up to like minus one seventy. Uh. They are now backed down to around minus one sixty. I see one book at minus one fifty five. See another one at minus one sixty five. So again, always shop around, trying to save as much juice as you can. But I'm gonna stick with my original bet with San Diego here. So a couple of system matches number one non division road favorites one sixty six and one oh one six four p r O Y. It's been one of our best systems with the biggest sample size this year. UH. You also look at inter league line move, so again it's shot up, came back down a little bit, but still has moved towards San Diego. Really never from the opener towards Detroit UH, and interial league favorites, the lack of familiarity benefiting quote unquote the better team. I actually saw a tweet um and again who knows if this stuff is real or not, but Juan Soto Apparently the Padres are interested in Soto and they're offering Freando Tatis Jr. So we'll see if that comes to fruition here. But San Diego would match some systems Mania five and four four point one one e r A. The lefty who they got from Oakland has been pretty decent. Hutchinson's one and four or the four point four six e r a uh. San Diego thirty four and twenty is a favorite there, twenty nine and thirty three on the sorry, twenty nine and twenty two on the road in Detroit is just twenty nine and forty seven. As a dog, when they're expected to lose, they tend to lose. Both batting average and t m r A benefits San Diego. They're hitting two forty verse two twenty eight for Detroit and tm r A three point seven one ros four point one two uh for the Tigers. Here, so again, big move shot up to the San Diego. It's come back down a little bit, but I'm gonna continue and continue to stick with my original bet. Dance with the one who brung me. Let's go San Diego. Fathers. I'm on the Father's at minus one five. So you have a guys, MLB five bets for tonight? Can we have three or or more? Give me Cincinnati a fishy makes no sense, gotta play it kind of number for me minus one twenty seven Reds Atlanta minus one seventy five Baltimore, Can we get a dog to bark? Plus one ten, Cleveland minus one oh two pretty much even money in San Diego, a minus one on the road and inter league play. But there you have it, guys. First half the pot here in the books gonna take a very very short break when we get back, when we reset the stage with some NFL win totals. So we've kind of hit on this a little bit. But I do have some updated numbers and they're moving in our favor, which is a good thing. I want to update you guys on what's going on with the Shawn Watson and also I think with Watson, the question is, like, you know, the Browns win totals aren't on the board, you can't do anything. You gotta wait, You gotta twiddle your fingers and just see until and you wait until they get posted. I don't think so. I think there's a different way to attack this by betting on two teams in the division who if Watson is out for a while, I think really really benefit from that. So do not, don't don't go anywhere, guys. Getting back into the swing of things on a big Monday, when we returned talking a FC North, a couple of win totals here. The Baltimore Ravens is since NATI Bengals when we returned an episode six twenty six of the Visa Market Insights Podcast with me your buddy, your host, the guy Grind and Sweat with the dog days of Summer with your buddy Josh Apple bomb Stick. Well, those guys, we'll be right back, all right, everyone, We are back at it after a nice UFC Saturday, getting back into the the Undefeated Green, which we love to see two and oh biding in the arena with both Jacker Manson and kirolav Uh so we can continue to get those good vibes going here for a big Monday. So we talked MLB. I'm on the Reds, the Braves, the Orioles, the Guardians, and the San Diego Padres, but I want to hit on some NFL in totals. So we've been kind of doing this, you know, throughout the summer here building our card. I'll get you a full breakdown of everyone that that I've bet so far. Maybe we can recap that maybe towards the tail end of the the preseason again preseason two. You know, you never want to think about it, but you know, injuries, guys tearing their a c L sometimes there is a benefit if you haven't bet it yet to kind of wait and just make sure everyone's healthy. But in the meantime, there are a couple of in totals that I want to share with you. So on the topic of the a f C, North again mentioned this a million times. I guess sports betters, you're probably waiting for two shoes to drop. One would be Kevin Durant. Will you get traded to my Celtics. I don't know their plus four fifty though they definitely moved up here a little bit. Although I don't want to give up Jalen Brown. Guys twenty five years old getting better each year. Durant is great, but he's thirty four and he's only got a couple of years left. But anyway, um, the other shoe would be obviously DeShawn Watson waiting on this suspension. These um the Houston Texans, I think they uh, they finished all their lawsuits, they settled all of them, so they're they're they've kind of washed their hands of Watson. But now we're waiting on the NFL to come down in the suspension. I've heard a year, I've heard eight games, and again, who know who the heck knows of the nfl UM. I think they definitely want to probably air on the side of more games than less because I don't think they want a pr hit like they took with Ray Rice and Cream Hunt and some of these other, uh, you know, domestic violent violence issues that they kind of undersold and probably should have been way more strict with. But anyway, I think what you're reading is, you know, I want to bet the Browns, why you know, want to take the overtake the under where's their win total? I think you look at it the other way. Guys don't fixate so much on the brown and being upset that their win total isn't up. Again, it's still off the board. The books are not gonna put that out there until they get clarity on how long Watson will be out. I think the other way to attack them is to bet their two biggest rivals and take their win total overs. So if you talked about this before, but just a quick recap here because I'm about to go on Lombardi line and uh, they're doing the a f C North today. That's what kind of why I want to talk about it. But the f C North, I'm gonna start with the Baltimore Ravens. So Baltimore Ravens. Again the thought process here, guys, if Watson is out for eight games or a full season, teams in your division who you play twice, they're gonna be happy to see that. They're gonna be very happy to face Jacoby Brissette versus Deshaun Watson. Um. And again maybe Jimmy g I don't know, he could be traded, but nothing there yet. Anyway, Baltimore, guys, I think this they're in for a positive regression type season. You'll get the Ravens. Last year, Um, they were eight and nine, but I think that doesn't tell the totally the whole story. You know, they had they were decimated by injuries. They had one of the biggest uh you know, man games loss based on injuries. And yet they're still competitive down the stretch. Remember there was a game against Baltimore. I took him plus the points they covered with Tyler Huntley, Like, they really fell off the map at the end and lost a lot of games where they were in them. They covered them with a lot of you know, backups and everything. So to me, that speaks very highly of your culture. Um, they went total this year's nine and a half. It's juiced up over minus one fifty. So you go eight nine last year, you get healthier this year. You had a pretty good draft as well. Linder bomb and uh again that who's at Jones the d tackle from Yukon, a couple of other guys here, but over nine and a half minus one fifty juiced up over their minus one fifty to make the playoffs their plus one sixty, the favorites win the division, I would target to make the playoffs, and I'm targeting the over nine And haf Win told the division, I just think maybe the Bengals could catch them. To me, they're kind of neck and neck here. Bengals will get them a second their plus one ninety, but number one positive aggression. You get decimated about injuries last year. Uh, you probably maybe get a little bit better luck with injuries. Um, this year you're gonna get Lamar Jackson back, JK. Dobbins back. Uh. And also the culture. I mentioned this, but Harbaugh uh in fourteen with fourteen years again, he's been there forever. If you think about it, one thirty seven and eight eight record with the Ravens, that's a six o nine win percentage. He's won ten or more games in eight of his fourteen years and three of the last four years. Uh, something to file away. As I mentioned, he's the number one preseason coach because he takes it seriously and wants to win these games when other coaches really don't care about that. Thirty six and fift t s seventy one percent in the preseason. Something to keep an eye out for Hardball. By the way, it's twenty five to one to win the Coach of the Year. But I mentioned Jackson and Dobbins coming back being healthy. Marcus Peters was hurt as well. He's back, but they have the tenth easiest schedule. So one of the benefits of you know, having a down year last year, what was your schedule is not that hard this year. Their opponents from last year on one thirty six and one one. They're gonna play a four seventy four win percentage. Jackson if you're looking at him to have a better year here, obviously you're worried about injuries. But because he only played twelve games last year and really didn't play at all there and they'll probably the last third of the year, his over unders for some props here, thirty five hundred and thirty three thousand, five hundred and fifty and a half passing yard, so thirty five fifty twenty four and a half touchdown, six and a half rushing touchdowns. He's plus two thousand in the m v P. So I'm not really interested in many of those, but I think it just speaks to me that, you know, I think he had sixteen touchdowns, thirteen picks. He again was hurt, didn't play a lot, yet those numbers are kind of lofty for him. So tells me that kind of the odds makers are bullish on Jackson. Obviously. You know, we saw a couple of years ago and there the one seed, but I think lost. I remember I bet the Titans there that year. Titans went into Baltimore and beat him after the bye um. But they're kind of expecting Jackson maybe to get back to his old form based on some of those prop numbers. So you added all up, guys, you have a good culture. Uh maybe you get a little bit luckier with injuries this year. You should have Jackson back and some of these other injured guys. You're really juiced up over. I'm gonna take the Baltimore over nine and a half win total, and I would be intrigued by make the playoffs minus one fifty. That's whether you win the division or you know, getting it as a wild card team. But can me the Baltimore Ravens hopefully benefiting from positive aggression and notice Shaun Watson over nine and a half the other bet for me, guys, And you may have to shop around a little bit since Andy Bengals mentioned them a second ago. But the Bengals last year, we all know ten and seven overall. They won the division, but they lost in the super Bowl. That's okay. They cover the number, that's fine by us. Remember we took them plus three and a half. But DraftKings has a ten win total under minus one. But here's why you want to shop around. Find a nine and a half bet. MGM's got a couple other books have got it over nine and a half minus one forty or minus one fifty depending on your book here. So to me, that's important they go ten and seven again. You want to win. You wanna win that over nine and a half, not push that ten uh to make the playoffs minus one thirty five? Yes, I think that could also be an angle again. They mean to me it's it's Ravens in in in Cincinnati, toss up here. I do actually like the over seven and a half with the Steelers as well, um, but kind of buying loan trobiski. And also they traveled the least amount of miles. They're really kind of good. Uh you know schedule in terms of travel. Uh, that's kind of not really. I don't have a cap on them fully here, but that's one thing I remember coming to mind. I did take the over seven and a half either way division plus one ninety a f C plus a thousand. Can they get back to the super Bowl? That's the fifth best odd super Bowl plus twenty two D that could be worthwhile twenty two one it's kind of a high number. And um, what I like about this team, aside from the one negative, they're tough schedule. You know, you go to the super Bowl, h you winna lose, You're still gonna have a tough schedule. The third hartist last year their opponents went one fifty four and one thirty three. That's a five thirty six win percentage. But I think what you're banking on the Cincinnati is the stability and the growth of their team. So you're going with Joe Burrow into year three. We all saw, you know, year one he flashed but also got hurt. Last year he puts all together. He's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Now you're into year three. Um. Also year two with Jamar Chase, So that connection we saw, uh, you know, miss no time going from college to NFL with the years in between. But then also Zach Taylor going into his fourth year, we all thought he was terrible. Apparently you get a good quarterback and now you're a good coach. But stability, you know, and again we're talking about college ball win totals. We want to bet on teams that are stable against teams that are unstable. The same thought process, you know, kind of applies here in the NFL. I like what you did in the off season and Annow smart yourself, you said, hey, we got sacked nine times by the tight ends. We're gonna slid a fire offensive line. Bringing Alex Cappa, Lyle Cows, Ted Cares from my Patriots. They added Hayden Hurst, they lost c j Uzama. Um. But I think the growth of this team and kind of what they learned from last year, and just I'm a big believer in Burrow in general. I think this guy is talented but also kind of got that Brady winner kind of thing about him. Um. Again, I'm not going to compare him a Brady yet obviously, but one guy's got seven rings, one guy's got zero rings. But Burrow to me as a guy I want to back. I liked kind of the swagger, the intangibles. Obviously, the talent. He's plus twelve hundred win m v p uh four thousand, four d fifty and a half passing yards over under thirty four and a half tds. He threw for four thousand, six hundred and eleven last year with thirty four td So you're kind of right on that number. Um, But to me, there's a shop around finding over nine and a half and take Cincinnati over night and a half, or take him to make the playoffs minus one thirty five. But again, I'm very bullish on this team, learning from last year. Uh and again not winning and maybe being hungry from losing that game, but really this kind of core, addressing your old line and really Burrow going into year three tailor year four and that chase row connection year two, you add all up going since over nine and a half wins, do stop or make the playoffs minus one, So give me both Baltimore and Cincinnati to win ten games or more and make the playoffs. That's another easier way to put it. Guys, there you have it. Just ran through our first pod here last day or you know, last last week here in the month of July, so you can get off to a good start after anice biting to and all on Saturday. A burminder, Guys, if you enjoy the pod, if it's helped you cash some bets, if you've kind of learned more about betting, and you know, you used to kind of throw darts and now you have a model in a blueprintter you gonna win every game, of course not, but you're learning to read line movement. You're learning to identify contrarian value, sharp action. You're beating some closing lines. Maybe you lose a bet, but you beat the closing line. You say, you know, okay, it's tough, I lose the bet, but you know, we're reading the market over the long haul. If you're getting closing line value, that means you're gonna be a successful sports better. So, uh, maybe you've taken more of a contrarian angle. Maybe you're flat betting instead of you know, parlaying everything and betting, you know, hundred on this and five bucks on that, whatever it may be, If the pot has helped you in any way, or maybe it's become a part of your day, and you know, I give you a five baseball plays today, maybe pick out one play that you liked. Again, I don't expect you about every game I talked about personally. I do just so you know that I have skin in the game. But if the pots helped you at all, if you want to make my day, if you want to let me know, appreciate the hard work guy put in grinding in the arena every day. Uh, and really talking about the sharp, contrarian, data driven approach to betting. And there's one thing I ask of you. Buy my book. Go to Amazon dot com, type in the Everything Guy to Sports Betting. Pick up a copy for you or for a friend. I mean the world to me. Guy's got everything I've learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online at a shop for the best line bank roll management. Uh, full chapters in all the major sports including NFL and college as well, so uh right around the corner, or if you wanna, if you wanna buy my book and start doing your homework there. I mean a lot to me, guys. But if you already bought it, thank you, thank you, and thank you again. And if you're going to we're thinking about it. I really appreciate it, So thank you again as well, without being said, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, twin River, in Rode in the Brook in New Hampshire, Fox's or Mohican Son down to new legalized Connecticut. We got seven days left to get it down in Massachusetts. Fingers crossed. Please God deliver me sports betting. God, deliver me a prayer here, can we finally realize betting? Every other state of me gets to have fun and bet legally. But I can't. I want that to end. So let's get mass to legalize, or of course bump into on the virtual matrix, breaking handle records every day in the great State of New York. Out in the desert where the true grinders get down where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where Low Shoes Possible is found at the South Point or Stadium, swim So and Shark and Trying plays with Stormy in the Crew, getting a victory Burger, hanging by the Mega Bar in front of the big screen Mandalay Bay the West Gate, my two other favorite books in Vegas forever. Maybe you're gonna walk up to me. You're gonna show me a couple of biting tickets bouncing back the Joker her Manson as well as Cry Love or Kiro Love Again. I can't pronounce it correctly. Either way, we're able to cash that again. You give me a favorite getting thirty bets, it's an auto bet again feed the trendy Dog. But anyway, guys, have a great Monday. It's great to be back with you. Hope you had a good weekend. And I will be on Lombardi Line here in a second, but also betting across America three to four, so tune in. We're a lot going on this week, and we're starting to starting to ramp up here as as football gets closer every single day. So I wish you the best of luck. My parting words as always stay sharp, stay contrary, and bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of the house. Always be with the smart money, never against it. Will smart money when every time, of course not. We gotta overcome luck, unluckiness, randomness, bad beats, beat the juice. All that stuff comes into play here, guys. But if we can consistently, you know, find the games that fit our sweet spot against the public, with the house, with the pros flat beet, avoid parlay's, get some closing line value. If we can do that, we're gonna be okay long term. So I wish you the best of luck, have a fantastic Monday, and do not forget as always to tip your ticket writer. I'll save you from your next bad beat. I'll give you some good carm but more more importantly, it may give you a free drink ticket, and who's gonna say no to that. But either way, guys, have a great Monday, good luck, and I'll see you on betting across America and back on the pod floor Tomorrow's good luck everybody,