Hello and welcome to episodes seven hundred and eighteen of the Visa in Market Insights podcast. I'm your host, Josh apple Bomb. What is going on? Everyone? Happy fade the public Friday? More importantly, happy second straight winning day. We needed Winston Churchill to give us a motivational speech after a tough night there on Tuesday night, and what happened. Churchill came through for the team. So two straight winning days. Don't let the podcast get hot. I'm telling you be the way guys. Good night last night four and one plus two point six units. A couple of comments on the games from last night. Number one, I didn't have the stones to take the has Matt play with the Rams? But did you see the Rams get down seven the six and a half down to six end up covering the number? Incredible there, Baker Mayfield engineering that final drive to cover and win the game. They're at the end. But to get the under in that one, which was great, got all the way down to forty two and a half, got that one at forty three and a half either way forty two and a half for even forty two. I even saw forty one and a half slate movement all towards that under. Really don't have to sweat that one at all. I got Iowa under in college basketball, which was nice. That was kind of a one that had a lot of great closing line value from the Morning Bets Pod. We got all the way down to I want to say one thirty seven something like that, and I'm glad we didn't take the low hanging through with Iowa State because even though that line did move a bit to Iowa State, it was really fishy because they were the obvious play playing better, better record ranked iowas unranked at home, so it wasn't like a perfect unranked home favoranked opponent with a line move line actually went against Iowa. But I think in betting, you know, it's oftentimes just as important the games that you decided to lay off of and not bet versus the ones that you do bet. So we got the Iowa under, which was nice, got Winnipeg in the NHL, and then a dance with the one who brung. Yet, how about that Miami heat under or sorry, Miami heat over yesterday, guys, that was a play that identified at a bad over UH to fifteen and a half and then it got all down in the pod, took the over uh to thirteen, to thirteen to twelve, closed all the way to eleven. But what do you do when the line goes against you. You don't buy out, you don't freak out, you don't panic. You dance with the one who brung you. And it came through there with a nice clippers heat over really wasn't even a sweat there too much, ended up at two only losing there was ducane Ducaine let us down. But I will take a four and one plus two point six unit night any day of the week. So a couple winning days in a row, three out of four winning days this week, guys, let's see if we can keep it rolling now. The only negative news I have to report today is Brazil. Brazil, Brazil, Brazil. I'm getting a lot of get a lot of heat on Twitter. What an idiot you were to go chalk? Yes I was, I fully admit I'm not a soccer guy. But Brazil gets knocked out. But you know what, that was a brutal one because Brazil nothing nothing. Me and my friends all bet Brazil. And these are people who you know don't really bet at all, and you know they're asking me. I'm like, hey, I don't I don't know soccer, but they are the favorite, and you know five thirty eight dot com Nate Silver has them as the best odds to win it. Also, it took a shot unit on Brazil zero's ero. They score a huge goal, Neymark go up one nothing. I'm like, okay, we got this nice, We're going on the we're going on to the final four here, and then what happens They give up a goal and then they lose in a shootout there, So tough one. If you're a brazil future is better like me. But again, we took a shot. We had a little bit of fun. We made it to the semi five, quarterfinals something like that. But remind me, remind me for or what is it, four years or six years from now, whenever it is that I will I will be probably not be betting Brazil chalk. Next time we'll take a shot on another dog. But either way, guys, good night last night, four and one plus two point six units. Uh So we had a lot today on a big fade of the public Friday. Going into the weekend, I have a five pack for you. Not a lot. In terms of college basketball, we have NHL, I got three bets for you, including some really good closing line value based off the Morning Bets pod, including a puck line as well. U NBA have two bets for you as well, and then we'll look toward this weekend. A couple of bets in the NFL, couple of bets. I'm monitoring update here on the Army Navy game, and do have one biting play in the arena, an epic epic trade favored trendy dog. This favorite as a line movement is only getting eighteen percent of bets, so stay tuned for that as we break it all down on a big edition episode seven eighteen of the Visa Market Insides podcast. So before we dive into Oliver sweats for today, real quick housekeeping. As always, bull season is heating up, and we just released our Bowl Game Betting Guide, a lot of great content here. What I love is that Steve McKinnon, he's got his tips and he's got his breakdowns. But also Bret Musburger and Steve McKinnon pick every side UH for these Bowl games. So it really excited UH to to sift through this Bowl Guide. You also have my article on kind of Bowl game betting strategies in terms of going contraying. We kind of hit on that yesterday and talked about quite a few lines that have been catching our eye. But our Bowl Game Guide is now out. We listed here with a link in the Visa Daily newsletter. Y'all have a linked to the Morning Bets pod every single morning, but kind of a a you know, breakdown of what the Bull Game Guide will offer you, including Steve McKinnon. He has basically his tips, his his seven tips to look at when you're looking to bet the Bowl game games. So I really enjoyed reading that. You also have Matt Humans on the Circle Friday Football Invitational update here including a break including a kind of an interview of Jeff Whitelaw, who is a Las Vegas pro bettor. So always like to kind of read what these guys are thinking. I always look at their Super Bowl matchup there. He has Bills forty Niners, so we'll see if Brock Purty can lead up lead the forty Niners there uh to the to the the Super Bowl there against the Bills. But also you get links to all of our vicent articles as well as breakdowns UH in NHL by any McNeil, j v T N b A. We have Greg Groops Peterson in college basketball as well as promost legal sports books, so take advantage. They want your business. You want to shop for the best line. I also saw pretty cool things just happened. The first Massachusetts retail license was handed out. And guess where. Guess who went to? You guess it? Uh? The Encore right outside of Boston or basically in Boston's and Everett not far from me. But pretty soon here about a month from now, we will be sweating games legally at the Encore, which I cannot wait for either way. Guys, easiest way to stay plugged in a Visa and everything that's going on at Visa in across the market. Get the newsletter every day, wake up to it with your bacon and eggs, your coffee. You get great sports betting content, get your thinking and and really guide you in the right direction each day for that day's sweat. 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Questions, common suggestions, anything to do I can do to help you along your sports betting journey, you let me know. So that being said, after a couple of good nights here, we got a little mini hot street going after. It was a little bit rough sledding there for a bit, so so we can build on our four and one plus two point six unit night from last night. Uh, first on the board for me, let's go to the NHL, and it's a big hockey night and it's a big NBA night. So first bet for me to say, seven o'clock game, I'm gonna go New Jersey Devils. Let's go Devils in this one guy's Devils are at home against the New York Islanders. Devil's open as low as like a minus one seventy five home favorite. A lot of steam, A lot of steam on the Devil's here, so they're all the way up to round minus two ten, uh minus two fifteen, So line is steaming here in favor of New Jersey. Of course, any time I talk about any bet on the pod, but really in particular, when you're betting favorites, it's bet trist, not bet twin. So you hear me say it all the time. But if you're gonna ride the Devils with me tonight, you are not betting, you know, two point one five to win one unit. You're just risking your one unit trying to get a little less than a half unit back. So sister matches here for the Devil's home favorites. Minus two more off win thirty four and sixteen sixty percent this year. Home favors of the line move in general sixty seven sweet spot big favorites between minus one seventy five and minus seventy This year also arrested UH favorite here. So the Devils haven't played in a while. The Devils have been off for I want to say, what three four days something like that. They haven't played since the sixth. Now, now Islanders haven't played since the six either, But if you look prior to that, Islanders played the sixth, the fourth, in the second Doubles played the sixth, the third, and the first. So really the Devils are kind of the more rested team in this spot. UH. Devils are fourteen and five is a favorite this year, tied with my Bruins for the most points in the NHL. There ten three and one at home, better offense three point seven goals game verse three point two for the Islanders and better defense only giving up two point two goals game versus two point seven for the Islanders. So this has been a red hot Jersey team. We got a pretty good steam move in their favorite. These teams did me up earlier this year. It was a four one win by the Devils, So I'm gonna keep riding it here, guys. Also the Devils they won four of their last five. Islanders have lost three of their last four. See we can get a win here with the Devils to start our night. I got the Devils at minus to ten. H Keebond cruise in what else have we got here? Next play for me, I'm gonna go with the New York Rangers. Give me the Rangers on the money line on the road at Colorado. Now talked about this one in the morning Bets pot. I don't know if it's as much of a bet on the Rangers as it is a bet against Colorado. So I watched Colorado played my Bruins the other night. Bruins had a big win for us as a podcast play. But this Colorado team is really a shell of their former selves, the former Cup champs from last year. A lot of injuries, a lot of guys out. Uh, they are missing number one Nathan McKinnon, one of the best players in hockey. So without McKinnon, Uh, really, that just kind of puts everyone in a tough spot. Offensively, I really didn't generate many chances at all, so I like the Rangers here to get it done against Colorado. Rangers have a good line move. Rangers opened at around minus one tw five on the road, they got they've been getting bet up to round minus one fifty. This would match a non division steam system two teams different divisions. Take the team getting the steam of ten cents or more. That's one forty two and eighty. I also look at favorites off of win six this year. Uh, and then you also kind of look at a couple of other factors with the Rangers. Uh, they've won two straight, Colorado has lost three straight. Rangers actually are a better road team than they are at home there eight four and one on the road versus just five six and four at home. So again, I think the metrics overall might say, hey, there's value on Colorado as a dog, you know, in terms of two teams with very similar records. However, with all these injuries with Colorado, and that's a good spot to back the Rangers, who also not only have they won two straight, but they had a big win over Vegas Golden Nights on the road there. So let's see if they can get it done for us against the Apps. Tonight, I'm on the Rangers minus one fifty. Then last play the night for me, I'm going Boston Bruins. But no, I'm not laying a minus three again. I think that number is just way too high. So I'm gonna go puck line here again. Not always a puck line guy, I'm like the Dozekis guy. I don't always bet puck line. When I do, it's the Bruins on the puck line against one of the worst teams in hockey. So give me the Bruins here again. I told you they're huge number the open minus two eighty on the money line there to minus three. I even see some like three forties out there. This thing is really really high. But instead of laying that big number, I'm gonna go puck line minus one and a half. That's the For anyone who knew who doesn't really isn't familiar with hockey or what the puck line is, it's the spread. It's the spread. It's the minus one and a half favorite. Uh dog plus one and a half. And with the Bruins at minus one and a half, you're cutting that number all the way down to minus one thirty. Uh So, uh, this morning when I talked about on the Morning Bets potos minus one twenty. So it's a good sign that lines continuing to move both toward a couple of Morning Bets plays, the Rangers and the Bruins. But the Bees, I'm taking them to win by two goals or more minus one and a half at minus one thirty now it would be another non division steam system six big road dogs, two dred more sixty six percent this year. Also, uh, you know, any stat you look at, it's gonna favorite Boston and this one they're fifteen and one is a favorite. Uh, first in the NHL, tied with the Devil's Arizona tied second worst record in the NHL. Bruins are seven and three on the road. The Arizona Coyotes are just one in ten their last eleven games. And offense defense really really check the box here to Boston four goals a game versus two point six for Arizona only giving up two point one goals a game versus almost four for Arizona. UH, power play special teams twenty percent Boston only Arizona and p K penalty kill eight pcent verse seventy six percent. So I'm gonna cut this thing down. Let's win by two or more. Uh, can we get a nice four nothing win? Don't have to sweat it too much, don't eat an empty net goal, or you know, God forbid, don't go to overtime and win it. But I'm gonna go Boston here on the puck line minus one and a half at minus one thirty. So our three pack here in the NHL Rangers minus one fifty, Devil's minus two ten, and the Boston Bruins puck line minus one and a half at minus one thirty. Now over to a little bit of NBA. So I think it's a pretty good NBA slate tonight. There's ten games NHL. There are ten games in the NBA as well, but a couple of games that caught my eye. Number one, I'm gonna take a dog play here. Give me the Pelicans plus the points. I'm on the Pelicans plus one and a half at home against the Phoenix Suns. This kind of just is a classic or verse line, move contury and play on quietly a really good team. Like if I asked you who's the number one seed out West in the NBA, I couldn't have told you this until I looked it up. It's the Pelicans, believe it or not. Pelicans are sixteen and eight. Uh, you gotta look at um. Obviously, Zon lost some weight, is playing fantastic, but it's their whole team that's playing great. So I think it's a good spot to take the points at home against the Phoenix Suns. The Phoenix Suns actually opened on the road lane to or even two and a half I saw at one point. Now they're down to one and a half. So that's notable because the Phoenix Suns are actually getting across the market about six of bets. So the Sons are the public team. Public just says, yes, Sons. You've you know, got blown out by our Celtics last night, which was a couple of nights ago, which is great for us as a dance with the one who brought you play. But but they're still the Suns. They made the finals couple of years ago, got great players. Hey take the Sons. We still don't believe in the Pelicans. There's kind of a public bias against the Pelicans still, uh, despite their great record, and in a bias for the Suns despite you know, really struggling here as of late. So just just from the standpoint of you know, Sons are getting majority of bets, Yet the line fell minus two and a half down to minus one and a half. Tells me respect the money is going Pelicans here, So give me the Pelicans plus one and a half. They're only getting around bets but almost sixty of the money. Also, you look at a recent performance. Pelicans are playing great their ten and two their last twelve. They've won five straight. Meanwhile Phoenix has lost three or four home road. Also is very interesting. The Phoenix Suns are just four and six on the road this year. The Pelicans are ten and three at home. So if this was like a public Pelicans and you know, maybe the line didn't move too much it was a bylow spot in the Suns, then hey, I wouldn't be that interested. But it is kind of a classic reverse line move public on the Sun's yet lines drop into the Pelicans. And by the way, they're the number one seed playing great as of right now, and great at home where the Sons have struggled, and the Sons are still still dealing with some injuries. So I'm taking the plus one and a half. Give me Pelicans plus one and a half tonight then my last play for at the NBA. I am intrigued by the Dallas Mavericks as a really you know, good contrarian play, almost like a dog to fave line move at home against the Bucks. But what I'm gonna do is I'm just gonna take the over in this game. This over kind of caught my eye now when I was looking at it this morning, it was to twenty three and it really didn't move at all. I was like, oh, is there a line freeze here to the under? But over the last you know, a few hours here late morning, early afternoon, a lot of money shit this over. The total went from two twenty three up to to twenty four and a half. I see some books to twenty four and a half minus one fifteen, like make it to twenty five. This would match a couple of good systems. Nonconference overs, two teams from two different conferences play each other, lack of familiarity, don't know how to match up on defense, benefits offense. Those nonconference overs are seventy two and fifty eight this year. Then I have another system called the over rises system. So if the total rise at least a point, uh, this year and the total is two twenty or between two twenty and two thirty, and it's a non division game. And it sounds kind of wonky there, but bear with me that over rise it over rises system. It's this year thirty three and twenty five, so it's not like my greatest system in the world, but it is a match here on this one. Also you look at UM a couple other factors here, a very short number. So it opened like Bucks laying one one and a half. Now it's a pick them pretty much. It's may even get to MAVs minus one. But just from the standpoint of a very short spread, uh, tells me it's gonna be a competitive game back and forth. Maybe you get over time, so that's a good advantage here. Also you look at the referees. We have a couple of good road referees, or sorry, a couple of good UM a couple of good over refs Kevin Scott and Tyler Ford both between on fifty two and fifty to that over. And then you also look at UM kind of the way these teams have been trending a bit here, like Dallas. The crazy thing with with Dallas that I've realized is like pace maybe doesn't tell everything because Dallas is like the slowest team in the NBA, but they're fifteen and nine to the over because they're so good offensive efficiency. So even though like this would be a slow like take the under, Dallas is just so good in terms of when they get it and when they score that it kind of overrides maybe that slow pace a little bit. And I've learned the hard way by betting some Dallas Maverick unders that fly over and I'm like, yeah, they're slow, but they score every freaking time. Uh. So to me, with all these great offensive players, short spread, uh and the fact that um, Dallas five and one to the over the last six, they're actually fifteen and nine to the over this year there eight and five to the over at home in Milwaukee, is six and three to the over their last nine. So pretty much everyone's healthy in this one. Knock on what I hope I don't jinx it, but Jannice, Chris Middleton, Holiday Luca, everybody's ready to go on this one. So with a primetime game ten o'clock, uh, you know, your biggest game of the night, it's an ESPN game. I think we get some scoring in this one, so I'm taking the over two two only four and a half for the Dallas Mavericks in the Milwaukee Bucks, along with a dog play a dog play on a Pelican plus one and a half with New Orleans. So that about does it for today's sweats for today our five pack. But guess what, we got a big weekend ahead, so let's let's put our heads together and talk about what we're gonna sweat this weekend. I have a couple of NFL bets for you officially, and then a couple of more to monitor. We'll have an all final update here on Army versus Navy, and then also I gotta bet on the UFC bribing for you, including a very very interesting, incredibly lapsided Conturian favorite with a really good reverse line move, So do not go anywhere. I'm gonna finish up strong. And Episode seven eighteen of the Visa Market Insights Podcast with me, your buddy, your host, the guy you grind and sweat with in the arena, Approaching betting from a sharp, data driven conturion, angle your buddy Josh Apple bomb stick with us, guys. We'll be right back. Football season is the best time of year. To become a Visa Pro subscriber, get access to hourly pro tips, best bets from Visa experts, daily articles, power rankings, and expanded digital content and tools to help you become a better better Just go to Visa dot com slash subscribe for more information. Alright, everyone, we are back at it on a big fathe of public Friday edition of the Market Insights Pod. And guess what we had a couple of two straight winning days. We won on Monday. It was a terrible Tuesday, but three out of the last four. Let's see if we can get this thing going, see if we can stack another winning day here, because we have the conversation earlier in the week about you know, which do you prefer. Do you prefer like one night seven and oh, one night one in five, the big nights, the ups and downs, or do you prefer just kind of grinding out something positive each night? And I think the answer for most everyone, even though you love those seven and oh nights, they give you that that little a little shock of adrenaline that you can't get anywhere else. Uh. To me, it's grinding out these profits each night. So great night, last night, four and one plus two point six units. So we talked about our sweats for tonight. I'm on the Rangers, the Bruins buck line, and the Devils, and then for the NBA the Dallas Mavericks over along with the Pelicans plus one and a half. Now let's go over to our card for this weekend. So as of right now, guys, I'm still only holding two official bets on the Detroit money line. Detroit now on the money lines like minus one thirty I got a minus one thirty five, but that is a dog to fav line. But nothing's really come off of this for me. You do have some buyback. Detroit got up to two minus two and a half. Now they're down to pretty much two across the board. So maybe there's a little butte at the apple there with Minnesota as as a you know, kind of a an inflated dog number. But this is all dog to fave moved toward Detroit. Public's all over Minnesota lines going to Detroit. You've heard me probably talked about this game quite a bit on Visa and just on the pod just in general. But why is Detroit who's five and seven favorite over Minnesota, who's ten and two, and why do Minnesota open as a short favorite in line flip to the Detroit Lions. So that's a that's a money line play for me. I'm officially on Detroit on the money line at minus one thirty. Um my other bet here holding in pocket is Tampa Bay give me the bucks here plus three and a half. This reminds me quite a bit of pretty much a deja vu like flip scenario, a freaky Friday scenario of that primetime game with the Saints in the bucks where basically the Tampa Bay is now in the Saints position, where San Frean is in that Bucks position where if you remember, Tampa Bay was minus six and a half down to three and a half against the Saints, and the Saints end up covering the number even though they lost a heartbreaker. Their Brady pulled another one out. But seeing free and open minus six and a a half this one now they're down to three and a half, so the lines all going to Brady. If you look at the juice on the plus three and a half for Tampa it's all juiced up like it make it down to three and this would be a lot of system matches. Dog who failed to cover the previous week fifty seven percent dogs three and a half or more sixty one. What else I have short road dogs six or less fifty five, so all matching here with Tampa Bay. So those are my two official bets. Detroit on the money line, Tampa Bay three and a half. A couple that kind of interest me a little bit. Um just kind of walking through the board here, I lean a little bit to that Buffalo under uh that is Jets Bills at open forty four and a half. It's down to forty three and a half. I noticed that there's gonna be maybe some bad weather there. It's gonna be thirties, ten mile Prower wins, it could be rainy, and that would be a divisional under. These divisional unders have been fantastic this year. Divisional unders are now sixty two, thirty six, and twenty two. But if they fall at least half point, they're even better. They are where they do have that system. UM I think like sevent something like that. UM, So I'm interested in in maybe that Buffalo under Baltimore. Pittsburgh's intriguing. I still like teasing up Baltimore in that one that actually opened the Baltimore Ravens laying three and flipped to Pittsburgh minus three, but then it was all buy back on Baltimore plus three. That would be another divisional spot where it's a really low total forty one down to thirty six and a half. And if you can tease Baltimore up two to eight, you go through three, you go through seven, and with such a low total, you know probably it's not gonna be much of a high scoring game. So those points could be very beneficial to that teased up dog. Let's keep an eye on that one. One that surprised me a bit was a little buy back toward the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati at one point got up to minus six I think even x and a half. Now that lines down to five and a half, so a little line movement coming back toward Cleveland. And that one, uh, Jacksonville, Tennessee. I don't know if I continue to have the stones about Jacksonville, but they did move from plus four to plus three and a half. But I didn't see Trevor Lawrence miss practice with a toe, so that's one thing to keep an eye out for. But it would be a divisional dog. Divisional dogs as you guys all know have been great this year. Another one that I'm keeping my eye on Miami and the Chargers. There's a lot of movement toward Miami open only laying like two on the road. They got up all the way to three and a half, but there has been quite a bit of buyback on Clippers plus three and a half, So that's a primetime game. If you can find a hook on Clippers plus Clippers L A C. I see, you know, there's like the different abbreviations l A C. I think Clippers, but L A C L A Chargers. You can find the Chargers with the hook three and a half. I'd be leaning on the Chargers there in a prime time stop. That's your Sunday night game, and the public is all over Miami. You are seeing this buy back at three and a half back down toward the Clippers here, so Clippers would match dog failed to cover prime time dogs sixty percent, And I'm intrigued a little bit by the Clipper. See I did again the Chargers. If you can find the hook on the three and a half, that's pretty much it. You know, we'll talk a little bit more on Monday when we get back Patriots might be a fade the trendy dog. I know the Patriots were like minus one and a half, are they like minus two down to one and a half, But now they're kind of uh sitting in that one and a half range. But I did notice using our Visa dot com bets, what's that the majority bets on Arizona there, So we'll we'll see. I haven't made you know, a call on that one yet. Uh did see a little bit under movement forty four down to forty three and alf We'll have a full breakdown on Monday for Monday Night Football. So Detroit money line, Tampa Bay and then all those others that we talked about will be on my radar here going into the weekend. I gotta talk obviously, Army Navy um continuing line movement toward Navy. Guys, Navy looks really sharp. I added Navy as a money line bet got him at minus one fifty. Not the greatest number in the world, but I want to be with this sharp move I just see Navy continue to get hit, hit, hit, hit and hit. Uh and this has been a great dog to faive again. Navy opened like getting point and a half now they're laying two and a half. They even may get to three. Now, if they get to three, I assume you're probably gonna get buy back here on Army. But Navy, to me is a really sharp bet that maybe the metrics don't speak to that much, but really the market has been leaning so hard on Navy in this one. So I had a Navy dog to faith. You know why, I guess four and seven versus five and six. You're both losing records here, but Navy did have a big win over you. CEF. They're fifteen and a half point dog. They want outright their last game and they are arrested. They didn't play until the last game was in the nineteenth Army played the twenty six. So I've been practicing. You kind of know what to expect here in this game. So I'm on the money line with Navy at minus one fifty, and you guys know what I'm doing. The total I'm on under thirty three. I'm not coming off. That did take up a little bit. I saw some get down to thirty two, got back up to thirty two and a half. You may want to wait this out, just see if can get a thirty three, but again at some point one year, you know this is gonna fly over, but sixteen straight unders if it what goes under again and I either take the over or lay off. I'm gonna kick myself because this is a bet that every year on two where it's hey, it's too low, it's gotta go over, it's due to go over. But you can never bet based on what's do. That's just not a way to strategy. It's it's not a smart thing to do, because you know what is the market telling you? Markets tell me lines falling? Uh So I'm on the under thirty three with Army Navy and I'm on Navy money line. Can we get a seventeen fourteen Navy win? How about that? And we're all happy now to finish up the pod. I told you I had one bet for you in biting in the UFC. I'm gonna take our guy. I feel like we bet this guy before because I remember the name Drycus duplessis. Give me Drycus duplessis on the money line at minus one. Uh what we got here? Minus one? I see a minus one n a minus one seventy five as well? Uh, minus one seventy five is gonna be your best number here. Let's split the difference. We'll call minus one eighty, just so it's an available number for everyone if they want to bet it. But anyway, Drycus du plesus. This one jumped out to me. Number one, uh for our our biting people who to bet in the UFC in the octagon, Younger, taller, longer reach line move. That's really my angle here when I'd like to bet UFC. So he is so he is younger, He's younger than Darren Till. Duplessis is twenty eight, Till is twenty nine. Nothing crazy but one year youth advantage. He's taller six ft one versus six ft. He's got a longer reach seventy six versus seventy four and a half. So we're checking off all those boxes. The line has moved pretty big towards Duplessis. He open is low as like minus one thirty all the way up to now minus one eighty. But here's really the thing that gets me going why I want to bet duplessis when I got the batch of data, and I always look towards I always get excited every Friday when my boy, when my buddy John Ewing from bet MGM sends us these bet splits because it really what jumps out to me is if I can get a fade the trendy dog play like almost like hockey. Um, you know UFC, you do see like two thirds of favorites win. It's a chalky sport. But obviously, you know, because these big numbers, you have to win at a high rate just to overcome the juice. But anyway, Drakis duplessis coming from bet bet MGM. He's only getting eighteen percent of bets till Darren Till is getting eighty two percent of bets. So if eighty two percent of bets around Darren Til, why is the line going to Draycus du plusus. If Duplessis is only getting eighteen percent of bets, why the hell did he move from like minus one thirty five, minus one forty all the way up to minus one eighty. That screams fade the trendy dog. It's an incredibly trendy dog. With Till getting eighty two percent, get the line keeps going to Duplessus. So I'm just gonna take this one bet here. There are a couple others that were kind of on the fence for me, But I feel like we have a pretty good edge with Duplessis as a data driven play. So it's gonna be my one uh one angle here this weekend. It's gonna be Draycus Duplessis minus one eighty for biting in the arena tomorrow night. That about does it for today's Visa Market Insights Podcast, Episode seven eighteen uh and again our reminder if you enjoy the Market Insights Podcast, if you've learned a few things, if you've taken more of a contrarian mindset here and if you can hear, this is Meadow in the background. She's she's joining the pod to say hello. But if the Market Insights Pot or the Morning Betspot has helped you to make smarter bets, to beat some closing lines, to take a contrarian angle, to lean on systems and betting percentages in line moves, or maybe you've become a flatbetter you know, longer parlay everything. You don't chase. You just stick to the model, stick to the blueprint. You grind. There's up, there's good days and there's bad days, but you stick to it and you stick with it. And I had a couple of a couple of good winning days in a row here, So either way the pot has helped you to become a better better or uh, if you just want to make my day, you want to let me know you appreciate the hard work guy put in grinding in the arena every day. Or is it's it's the holiday season and you have no freaking clue what to get the people the people in your life that you love. What? What heck am I gonna get my dad for Christmas? Or for Hottka or your aunt, your uncle or your your grandfather or your cousin or your nephew. I'll make it very easy on you know what you should get them? You should go to Amazon dot com and type in the Everything Guy to Sports Betting. That's my book. Uh, it'll teach you everything that I've learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a betting person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bank roll management plan. All included in my book, The Everything Guy to Sports Betting. So you know it's always great when Grandma gets you the collared shirt. I missed those days. R I p to my Graham, or your mom gets you you know, a pair of boxers, or you get a nice winner had all that's all great, but you know, you know what I want. I want something that I can turn into money, I can help me win, and I can make get something out of it to me. That's where the everything guy to sports betting can be beneficial to you or someone in your life who maybe it's interested in betting, or it's about to go legal soon. But if you want to pick one up, especially for the holiday season, it's twenty bucks, it's a good stocking stuff and it's not gonna set you back, and hopefully you want a couple of bets and it's already paid for itself. So, uh, you want to pick up a copy of mean a lot to me if you already have, thank you, thank you, and thank you again. With that being said, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook and New Hampshire, Foxwood, or Mohicans Son down in Connecticut. I just found out today the Encore and Boston just got the first license for legalized betting in mass So when I see you at the Encore a month from now, or out in New York with Bernie and with Ed and I didn't see a picture of the new dog you guys got, Oliver the chocolate Lab, so I can't wait for him to meet meadow uh to to uh the in laws. They're out in New York, in New York, or out in the desert where the true grinders get down where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the loose tuos possible is found at the South Point, or at my other favorite place in the world to go to Circa Stadium swim set in sharp Contrarian plays with Stormy in the crew uh and getting a victory Burger at the end of the night after last night, Good Victory Night, or at the Mantel a Bear or the Super Book my two other favorite books. When I visit Vegas, hurber it maybe uh, you're gonna walk up to me. You're gonna show me a Raiders under ticket. Hell yeah, show me a Iowa underticket, show me a Winnipeg Jets ticket, show me a dance with the one who brung you. Don't go crazy, stick with your bet, Miami Heat over ticket and guess what. First one's on me, next one's on you. We're gonna posted about the book so that sharp contraying plays all night. I wish to the best of luck, have a fantastic weekend. Reminder, I will be on the Sweat as I am every Sunday and Draft Kings. So again I told you, I'm on Detroit money line in Tampa Bay plus two points. But they're all those late moves. If you want to get updated on some late moves like last week, remember those couple of games at late movement. Who was about Pittsburgh and a couple others that I forget. All these games blend into one. But if you look at for late moves updates, check us out eleven am to noon. There'll be a live stream on Twitter. I'll tweet it out and I'll retweet it. It'll come from the Draft Kings account as well. But I will see you guys there on Sunday for the Sweat and then we'll be back at it on Monday. So enjoy your weekend. My parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrary in bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the house. Always be with the smart money. Never against it will smart money when every time, of course not. But we're playing a long game. And if we can play that long game and find those games that fit our model, fit our blueprint, fit that sweet spot against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlay's get some closing line value. If we can do that, we're gonna be okay long term. So see we can finish off the week on a hot note. Guys, let's let's do it for Churchill. Let's let's have the Churchill week. Continue to uh, continue to cash for us, but have a great weekend. Don't forget to tip your ticket writer. Uh. And uh, maybe you got a holiday party. We actually a holiday party tomorrow night. So it's a little early in the season. But bust out the ugly sweaters. Uh in the you know the egg nog that's spiked. Uh maybe the Bailey's with with hot cocoa. I hope everyone has a great, happy, healthy weekend, and see we can hit the ground running as Bowl week really gets started next week. But enjoy the sweats so we can keep up the good couple of days here, guys, turn into a good weekend. Enjoy all the games. Have a great weekend, good luck, and I'll see you back on Monday. Take care,

Hello and welcome to episodes seven hundred and eighteen of the Visa in Market Insights podcast. I'm your host, Josh apple Bomb. What is going on? Everyone? Happy fade the public Friday? More importantly, happy second straight winning day. We needed Winston Churchill to give us a motivational speech after a tough night there on Tuesday night, and what happened. Churchill came through for the team. So two straight winning days. Don't let the podcast get hot. I'm telling you be the way guys. Good night last night four and one plus two point six units. A couple of comments on the games from last night. Number one, I didn't have the stones to take the has Matt play with the Rams? But did you see the Rams get down seven the six and a half down to six end up covering the number? Incredible there, Baker Mayfield engineering that final drive to cover and win the game. They're at the end. But to get the under in that one, which was great, got all the way down to forty two and a half, got that one at forty three and a half either way forty two and a half for even forty two. I even saw forty one and a half slate movement all towards that under. Really don't have to sweat that one at all. I got Iowa under in college basketball, which was nice. That was kind of a one that had a lot of great closing line value from the Morning Bets Pod. We got all the way down to I want to say one thirty seven something like that, and I'm glad we didn't take the low hanging through with Iowa State because even though that line did move a bit to Iowa State, it was really fishy because they were the obvious play playing better, better record ranked iowas unranked at home, so it wasn't like a perfect unranked home favoranked opponent with a line move line actually went against Iowa. But I think in betting, you know, it's oftentimes just as important the games that you decided to lay off of and not bet versus the ones that you do bet. So we got the Iowa under, which was nice, got Winnipeg in the NHL, and then a dance with the one who brung. Yet, how about that Miami heat under or sorry, Miami heat over yesterday, guys, that was a play that identified at a bad over UH to fifteen and a half and then it got all down in the pod, took the over uh to thirteen, to thirteen to twelve, closed all the way to eleven. But what do you do when the line goes against you. You don't buy out, you don't freak out, you don't panic. You dance with the one who brung you. And it came through there with a nice clippers heat over really wasn't even a sweat there too much, ended up at two only losing there was ducane Ducaine let us down. But I will take a four and one plus two point six unit night any day of the week. So a couple winning days in a row, three out of four winning days this week, guys, let's see if we can keep it rolling now. The only negative news I have to report today is Brazil. Brazil, Brazil, Brazil. I'm getting a lot of get a lot of heat on Twitter. What an idiot you were to go chalk? Yes I was, I fully admit I'm not a soccer guy. But Brazil gets knocked out. But you know what, that was a brutal one because Brazil nothing nothing. Me and my friends all bet Brazil. And these are people who you know don't really bet at all, and you know they're asking me. I'm like, hey, I don't I don't know soccer, but they are the favorite, and you know five thirty eight dot com Nate Silver has them as the best odds to win it. Also, it took a shot unit on Brazil zero's ero. They score a huge goal, Neymark go up one nothing. I'm like, okay, we got this nice, We're going on the we're going on to the final four here, and then what happens They give up a goal and then they lose in a shootout there, So tough one. If you're a brazil future is better like me. But again, we took a shot. We had a little bit of fun. We made it to the semi five, quarterfinals something like that. But remind me, remind me for or what is it, four years or six years from now, whenever it is that I will I will be probably not be betting Brazil chalk. Next time we'll take a shot on another dog. But either way, guys, good night last night, four and one plus two point six units. Uh So we had a lot today on a big fade of the public Friday. Going into the weekend, I have a five pack for you. Not a lot. In terms of college basketball, we have NHL, I got three bets for you, including some really good closing line value based off the Morning Bets pod, including a puck line as well. U NBA have two bets for you as well, and then we'll look toward this weekend. A couple of bets in the NFL, couple of bets. I'm monitoring update here on the Army Navy game, and do have one biting play in the arena, an epic epic trade favored trendy dog. This favorite as a line movement is only getting eighteen percent of bets, so stay tuned for that as we break it all down on a big edition episode seven eighteen of the Visa Market Insides podcast. So before we dive into Oliver sweats for today, real quick housekeeping. As always, bull season is heating up, and we just released our Bowl Game Betting Guide, a lot of great content here. What I love is that Steve McKinnon, he's got his tips and he's got his breakdowns. But also Bret Musburger and Steve McKinnon pick every side UH for these Bowl games. So it really excited UH to to sift through this Bowl Guide. You also have my article on kind of Bowl game betting strategies in terms of going contraying. We kind of hit on that yesterday and talked about quite a few lines that have been catching our eye. But our Bowl Game Guide is now out. We listed here with a link in the Visa Daily newsletter. Y'all have a linked to the Morning Bets pod every single morning, but kind of a a you know, breakdown of what the Bull Game Guide will offer you, including Steve McKinnon. He has basically his tips, his his seven tips to look at when you're looking to bet the Bowl game games. So I really enjoyed reading that. You also have Matt Humans on the Circle Friday Football Invitational update here including a break including a kind of an interview of Jeff Whitelaw, who is a Las Vegas pro bettor. So always like to kind of read what these guys are thinking. I always look at their Super Bowl matchup there. He has Bills forty Niners, so we'll see if Brock Purty can lead up lead the forty Niners there uh to the to the the Super Bowl there against the Bills. But also you get links to all of our vicent articles as well as breakdowns UH in NHL by any McNeil, j v T N b A. We have Greg Groops Peterson in college basketball as well as promost legal sports books, so take advantage. They want your business. You want to shop for the best line. I also saw pretty cool things just happened. The first Massachusetts retail license was handed out. And guess where. Guess who went to? You guess it? Uh? The Encore right outside of Boston or basically in Boston's and Everett not far from me. But pretty soon here about a month from now, we will be sweating games legally at the Encore, which I cannot wait for either way. Guys, easiest way to stay plugged in a Visa and everything that's going on at Visa in across the market. Get the newsletter every day, wake up to it with your bacon and eggs, your coffee. You get great sports betting content, get your thinking and and really guide you in the right direction each day for that day's sweat. So it's Visa dot com slash newsletter. And then if you're going to take that next step in your sports betting journey, sign up for a Visa All Access membership. Just go to Visa dot com slash subscribe. Once you become a member, you'll get everything we offer. It's the equivalent of less than seventy cents a day, and it's gonna be so much great content. All the articles beyond the paywall, all the best bet emails livestream of all the Visa shows are actionable pro tips and strategies, as well as um those draft kings percentages, which again you don't need me to tell you how important they are. Yeah they mean nothing. Okay, well then talk about that that RLM and that buy back there, uh, toward the under and back towards the rams last night. But anyway, guys, a lot to get to. Lastly, get on Twitter. You can follow me at josh Underscore Insights. You can always follow at Visa Live for great con tent and updates throughout the day, as well as you can email me anytime Josh at Visa dot com. Questions, common suggestions, anything to do I can do to help you along your sports betting journey, you let me know. So that being said, after a couple of good nights here, we got a little mini hot street going after. It was a little bit rough sledding there for a bit, so so we can build on our four and one plus two point six unit night from last night. Uh, first on the board for me, let's go to the NHL, and it's a big hockey night and it's a big NBA night. So first bet for me to say, seven o'clock game, I'm gonna go New Jersey Devils. Let's go Devils in this one guy's Devils are at home against the New York Islanders. Devil's open as low as like a minus one seventy five home favorite. A lot of steam, A lot of steam on the Devil's here, so they're all the way up to round minus two ten, uh minus two fifteen, So line is steaming here in favor of New Jersey. Of course, any time I talk about any bet on the pod, but really in particular, when you're betting favorites, it's bet trist, not bet twin. So you hear me say it all the time. But if you're gonna ride the Devils with me tonight, you are not betting, you know, two point one five to win one unit. You're just risking your one unit trying to get a little less than a half unit back. So sister matches here for the Devil's home favorites. Minus two more off win thirty four and sixteen sixty percent this year. Home favors of the line move in general sixty seven sweet spot big favorites between minus one seventy five and minus seventy This year also arrested UH favorite here. So the Devils haven't played in a while. The Devils have been off for I want to say, what three four days something like that. They haven't played since the sixth. Now, now Islanders haven't played since the six either, But if you look prior to that, Islanders played the sixth, the fourth, in the second Doubles played the sixth, the third, and the first. So really the Devils are kind of the more rested team in this spot. UH. Devils are fourteen and five is a favorite this year, tied with my Bruins for the most points in the NHL. There ten three and one at home, better offense three point seven goals game verse three point two for the Islanders and better defense only giving up two point two goals game versus two point seven for the Islanders. So this has been a red hot Jersey team. We got a pretty good steam move in their favorite. These teams did me up earlier this year. It was a four one win by the Devils, So I'm gonna keep riding it here, guys. Also the Devils they won four of their last five. Islanders have lost three of their last four. See we can get a win here with the Devils to start our night. I got the Devils at minus to ten. H Keebond cruise in what else have we got here? Next play for me, I'm gonna go with the New York Rangers. Give me the Rangers on the money line on the road at Colorado. Now talked about this one in the morning Bets pot. I don't know if it's as much of a bet on the Rangers as it is a bet against Colorado. So I watched Colorado played my Bruins the other night. Bruins had a big win for us as a podcast play. But this Colorado team is really a shell of their former selves, the former Cup champs from last year. A lot of injuries, a lot of guys out. Uh, they are missing number one Nathan McKinnon, one of the best players in hockey. So without McKinnon, Uh, really, that just kind of puts everyone in a tough spot. Offensively, I really didn't generate many chances at all, so I like the Rangers here to get it done against Colorado. Rangers have a good line move. Rangers opened at around minus one tw five on the road, they got they've been getting bet up to round minus one fifty. This would match a non division steam system two teams different divisions. Take the team getting the steam of ten cents or more. That's one forty two and eighty. I also look at favorites off of win six this year. Uh, and then you also kind of look at a couple of other factors with the Rangers. Uh, they've won two straight, Colorado has lost three straight. Rangers actually are a better road team than they are at home there eight four and one on the road versus just five six and four at home. So again, I think the metrics overall might say, hey, there's value on Colorado as a dog, you know, in terms of two teams with very similar records. However, with all these injuries with Colorado, and that's a good spot to back the Rangers, who also not only have they won two straight, but they had a big win over Vegas Golden Nights on the road there. So let's see if they can get it done for us against the Apps. Tonight, I'm on the Rangers minus one fifty. Then last play the night for me, I'm going Boston Bruins. But no, I'm not laying a minus three again. I think that number is just way too high. So I'm gonna go puck line here again. Not always a puck line guy, I'm like the Dozekis guy. I don't always bet puck line. When I do, it's the Bruins on the puck line against one of the worst teams in hockey. So give me the Bruins here again. I told you they're huge number the open minus two eighty on the money line there to minus three. I even see some like three forties out there. This thing is really really high. But instead of laying that big number, I'm gonna go puck line minus one and a half. That's the For anyone who knew who doesn't really isn't familiar with hockey or what the puck line is, it's the spread. It's the spread. It's the minus one and a half favorite. Uh dog plus one and a half. And with the Bruins at minus one and a half, you're cutting that number all the way down to minus one thirty. Uh So, uh, this morning when I talked about on the Morning Bets potos minus one twenty. So it's a good sign that lines continuing to move both toward a couple of Morning Bets plays, the Rangers and the Bruins. But the Bees, I'm taking them to win by two goals or more minus one and a half at minus one thirty now it would be another non division steam system six big road dogs, two dred more sixty six percent this year. Also, uh, you know, any stat you look at, it's gonna favorite Boston and this one they're fifteen and one is a favorite. Uh, first in the NHL, tied with the Devil's Arizona tied second worst record in the NHL. Bruins are seven and three on the road. The Arizona Coyotes are just one in ten their last eleven games. And offense defense really really check the box here to Boston four goals a game versus two point six for Arizona only giving up two point one goals a game versus almost four for Arizona. UH, power play special teams twenty percent Boston only Arizona and p K penalty kill eight pcent verse seventy six percent. So I'm gonna cut this thing down. Let's win by two or more. Uh, can we get a nice four nothing win? Don't have to sweat it too much, don't eat an empty net goal, or you know, God forbid, don't go to overtime and win it. But I'm gonna go Boston here on the puck line minus one and a half at minus one thirty. So our three pack here in the NHL Rangers minus one fifty, Devil's minus two ten, and the Boston Bruins puck line minus one and a half at minus one thirty. Now over to a little bit of NBA. So I think it's a pretty good NBA slate tonight. There's ten games NHL. There are ten games in the NBA as well, but a couple of games that caught my eye. Number one, I'm gonna take a dog play here. Give me the Pelicans plus the points. I'm on the Pelicans plus one and a half at home against the Phoenix Suns. This kind of just is a classic or verse line, move contury and play on quietly a really good team. Like if I asked you who's the number one seed out West in the NBA, I couldn't have told you this until I looked it up. It's the Pelicans, believe it or not. Pelicans are sixteen and eight. Uh, you gotta look at um. Obviously, Zon lost some weight, is playing fantastic, but it's their whole team that's playing great. So I think it's a good spot to take the points at home against the Phoenix Suns. The Phoenix Suns actually opened on the road lane to or even two and a half I saw at one point. Now they're down to one and a half. So that's notable because the Phoenix Suns are actually getting across the market about six of bets. So the Sons are the public team. Public just says, yes, Sons. You've you know, got blown out by our Celtics last night, which was a couple of nights ago, which is great for us as a dance with the one who brought you play. But but they're still the Suns. They made the finals couple of years ago, got great players. Hey take the Sons. We still don't believe in the Pelicans. There's kind of a public bias against the Pelicans still, uh, despite their great record, and in a bias for the Suns despite you know, really struggling here as of late. So just just from the standpoint of you know, Sons are getting majority of bets, Yet the line fell minus two and a half down to minus one and a half. Tells me respect the money is going Pelicans here, So give me the Pelicans plus one and a half. They're only getting around bets but almost sixty of the money. Also, you look at a recent performance. Pelicans are playing great their ten and two their last twelve. They've won five straight. Meanwhile Phoenix has lost three or four home road. Also is very interesting. The Phoenix Suns are just four and six on the road this year. The Pelicans are ten and three at home. So if this was like a public Pelicans and you know, maybe the line didn't move too much it was a bylow spot in the Suns, then hey, I wouldn't be that interested. But it is kind of a classic reverse line move public on the Sun's yet lines drop into the Pelicans. And by the way, they're the number one seed playing great as of right now, and great at home where the Sons have struggled, and the Sons are still still dealing with some injuries. So I'm taking the plus one and a half. Give me Pelicans plus one and a half tonight then my last play for at the NBA. I am intrigued by the Dallas Mavericks as a really you know, good contrarian play, almost like a dog to fave line move at home against the Bucks. But what I'm gonna do is I'm just gonna take the over in this game. This over kind of caught my eye now when I was looking at it this morning, it was to twenty three and it really didn't move at all. I was like, oh, is there a line freeze here to the under? But over the last you know, a few hours here late morning, early afternoon, a lot of money shit this over. The total went from two twenty three up to to twenty four and a half. I see some books to twenty four and a half minus one fifteen, like make it to twenty five. This would match a couple of good systems. Nonconference overs, two teams from two different conferences play each other, lack of familiarity, don't know how to match up on defense, benefits offense. Those nonconference overs are seventy two and fifty eight this year. Then I have another system called the over rises system. So if the total rise at least a point, uh, this year and the total is two twenty or between two twenty and two thirty, and it's a non division game. And it sounds kind of wonky there, but bear with me that over rise it over rises system. It's this year thirty three and twenty five, so it's not like my greatest system in the world, but it is a match here on this one. Also you look at UM a couple other factors here, a very short number. So it opened like Bucks laying one one and a half. Now it's a pick them pretty much. It's may even get to MAVs minus one. But just from the standpoint of a very short spread, uh, tells me it's gonna be a competitive game back and forth. Maybe you get over time, so that's a good advantage here. Also you look at the referees. We have a couple of good road referees, or sorry, a couple of good UM a couple of good over refs Kevin Scott and Tyler Ford both between on fifty two and fifty to that over. And then you also look at UM kind of the way these teams have been trending a bit here, like Dallas. The crazy thing with with Dallas that I've realized is like pace maybe doesn't tell everything because Dallas is like the slowest team in the NBA, but they're fifteen and nine to the over because they're so good offensive efficiency. So even though like this would be a slow like take the under, Dallas is just so good in terms of when they get it and when they score that it kind of overrides maybe that slow pace a little bit. And I've learned the hard way by betting some Dallas Maverick unders that fly over and I'm like, yeah, they're slow, but they score every freaking time. Uh. So to me, with all these great offensive players, short spread, uh and the fact that um, Dallas five and one to the over the last six, they're actually fifteen and nine to the over this year there eight and five to the over at home in Milwaukee, is six and three to the over their last nine. So pretty much everyone's healthy in this one. Knock on what I hope I don't jinx it, but Jannice, Chris Middleton, Holiday Luca, everybody's ready to go on this one. So with a primetime game ten o'clock, uh, you know, your biggest game of the night, it's an ESPN game. I think we get some scoring in this one, so I'm taking the over two two only four and a half for the Dallas Mavericks in the Milwaukee Bucks, along with a dog play a dog play on a Pelican plus one and a half with New Orleans. So that about does it for today's sweats for today our five pack. But guess what, we got a big weekend ahead, so let's let's put our heads together and talk about what we're gonna sweat this weekend. I have a couple of NFL bets for you officially, and then a couple of more to monitor. We'll have an all final update here on Army versus Navy, and then also I gotta bet on the UFC bribing for you, including a very very interesting, incredibly lapsided Conturian favorite with a really good reverse line move, So do not go anywhere. I'm gonna finish up strong. And Episode seven eighteen of the Visa Market Insights Podcast with me, your buddy, your host, the guy you grind and sweat with in the arena, Approaching betting from a sharp, data driven conturion, angle your buddy Josh Apple bomb stick with us, guys. We'll be right back. Football season is the best time of year. To become a Visa Pro subscriber, get access to hourly pro tips, best bets from Visa experts, daily articles, power rankings, and expanded digital content and tools to help you become a better better Just go to Visa dot com slash subscribe for more information. Alright, everyone, we are back at it on a big fathe of public Friday edition of the Market Insights Pod. And guess what we had a couple of two straight winning days. We won on Monday. It was a terrible Tuesday, but three out of the last four. Let's see if we can get this thing going, see if we can stack another winning day here, because we have the conversation earlier in the week about you know, which do you prefer. Do you prefer like one night seven and oh, one night one in five, the big nights, the ups and downs, or do you prefer just kind of grinding out something positive each night? And I think the answer for most everyone, even though you love those seven and oh nights, they give you that that little a little shock of adrenaline that you can't get anywhere else. Uh. To me, it's grinding out these profits each night. So great night, last night, four and one plus two point six units. So we talked about our sweats for tonight. I'm on the Rangers, the Bruins buck line, and the Devils, and then for the NBA the Dallas Mavericks over along with the Pelicans plus one and a half. Now let's go over to our card for this weekend. So as of right now, guys, I'm still only holding two official bets on the Detroit money line. Detroit now on the money lines like minus one thirty I got a minus one thirty five, but that is a dog to fav line. But nothing's really come off of this for me. You do have some buyback. Detroit got up to two minus two and a half. Now they're down to pretty much two across the board. So maybe there's a little butte at the apple there with Minnesota as as a you know, kind of a an inflated dog number. But this is all dog to fave moved toward Detroit. Public's all over Minnesota lines going to Detroit. You've heard me probably talked about this game quite a bit on Visa and just on the pod just in general. But why is Detroit who's five and seven favorite over Minnesota, who's ten and two, and why do Minnesota open as a short favorite in line flip to the Detroit Lions. So that's a that's a money line play for me. I'm officially on Detroit on the money line at minus one thirty. Um my other bet here holding in pocket is Tampa Bay give me the bucks here plus three and a half. This reminds me quite a bit of pretty much a deja vu like flip scenario, a freaky Friday scenario of that primetime game with the Saints in the bucks where basically the Tampa Bay is now in the Saints position, where San Frean is in that Bucks position where if you remember, Tampa Bay was minus six and a half down to three and a half against the Saints, and the Saints end up covering the number even though they lost a heartbreaker. Their Brady pulled another one out. But seeing free and open minus six and a a half this one now they're down to three and a half, so the lines all going to Brady. If you look at the juice on the plus three and a half for Tampa it's all juiced up like it make it down to three and this would be a lot of system matches. Dog who failed to cover the previous week fifty seven percent dogs three and a half or more sixty one. What else I have short road dogs six or less fifty five, so all matching here with Tampa Bay. So those are my two official bets. Detroit on the money line, Tampa Bay three and a half. A couple that kind of interest me a little bit. Um just kind of walking through the board here, I lean a little bit to that Buffalo under uh that is Jets Bills at open forty four and a half. It's down to forty three and a half. I noticed that there's gonna be maybe some bad weather there. It's gonna be thirties, ten mile Prower wins, it could be rainy, and that would be a divisional under. These divisional unders have been fantastic this year. Divisional unders are now sixty two, thirty six, and twenty two. But if they fall at least half point, they're even better. They are where they do have that system. UM I think like sevent something like that. UM, So I'm interested in in maybe that Buffalo under Baltimore. Pittsburgh's intriguing. I still like teasing up Baltimore in that one that actually opened the Baltimore Ravens laying three and flipped to Pittsburgh minus three, but then it was all buy back on Baltimore plus three. That would be another divisional spot where it's a really low total forty one down to thirty six and a half. And if you can tease Baltimore up two to eight, you go through three, you go through seven, and with such a low total, you know probably it's not gonna be much of a high scoring game. So those points could be very beneficial to that teased up dog. Let's keep an eye on that one. One that surprised me a bit was a little buy back toward the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati at one point got up to minus six I think even x and a half. Now that lines down to five and a half, so a little line movement coming back toward Cleveland. And that one, uh, Jacksonville, Tennessee. I don't know if I continue to have the stones about Jacksonville, but they did move from plus four to plus three and a half. But I didn't see Trevor Lawrence miss practice with a toe, so that's one thing to keep an eye out for. But it would be a divisional dog. Divisional dogs as you guys all know have been great this year. Another one that I'm keeping my eye on Miami and the Chargers. There's a lot of movement toward Miami open only laying like two on the road. They got up all the way to three and a half, but there has been quite a bit of buyback on Clippers plus three and a half, So that's a primetime game. If you can find a hook on Clippers plus Clippers L A C. I see, you know, there's like the different abbreviations l A C. I think Clippers, but L A C L A Chargers. You can find the Chargers with the hook three and a half. I'd be leaning on the Chargers there in a prime time stop. That's your Sunday night game, and the public is all over Miami. You are seeing this buy back at three and a half back down toward the Clippers here, so Clippers would match dog failed to cover prime time dogs sixty percent, And I'm intrigued a little bit by the Clipper. See I did again the Chargers. If you can find the hook on the three and a half, that's pretty much it. You know, we'll talk a little bit more on Monday when we get back Patriots might be a fade the trendy dog. I know the Patriots were like minus one and a half, are they like minus two down to one and a half, But now they're kind of uh sitting in that one and a half range. But I did notice using our Visa dot com bets, what's that the majority bets on Arizona there, So we'll we'll see. I haven't made you know, a call on that one yet. Uh did see a little bit under movement forty four down to forty three and alf We'll have a full breakdown on Monday for Monday Night Football. So Detroit money line, Tampa Bay and then all those others that we talked about will be on my radar here going into the weekend. I gotta talk obviously, Army Navy um continuing line movement toward Navy. Guys, Navy looks really sharp. I added Navy as a money line bet got him at minus one fifty. Not the greatest number in the world, but I want to be with this sharp move I just see Navy continue to get hit, hit, hit, hit and hit. Uh and this has been a great dog to faive again. Navy opened like getting point and a half now they're laying two and a half. They even may get to three. Now, if they get to three, I assume you're probably gonna get buy back here on Army. But Navy, to me is a really sharp bet that maybe the metrics don't speak to that much, but really the market has been leaning so hard on Navy in this one. So I had a Navy dog to faith. You know why, I guess four and seven versus five and six. You're both losing records here, but Navy did have a big win over you. CEF. They're fifteen and a half point dog. They want outright their last game and they are arrested. They didn't play until the last game was in the nineteenth Army played the twenty six. So I've been practicing. You kind of know what to expect here in this game. So I'm on the money line with Navy at minus one fifty, and you guys know what I'm doing. The total I'm on under thirty three. I'm not coming off. That did take up a little bit. I saw some get down to thirty two, got back up to thirty two and a half. You may want to wait this out, just see if can get a thirty three, but again at some point one year, you know this is gonna fly over, but sixteen straight unders if it what goes under again and I either take the over or lay off. I'm gonna kick myself because this is a bet that every year on two where it's hey, it's too low, it's gotta go over, it's due to go over. But you can never bet based on what's do. That's just not a way to strategy. It's it's not a smart thing to do, because you know what is the market telling you? Markets tell me lines falling? Uh So I'm on the under thirty three with Army Navy and I'm on Navy money line. Can we get a seventeen fourteen Navy win? How about that? And we're all happy now to finish up the pod. I told you I had one bet for you in biting in the UFC. I'm gonna take our guy. I feel like we bet this guy before because I remember the name Drycus duplessis. Give me Drycus duplessis on the money line at minus one. Uh what we got here? Minus one? I see a minus one n a minus one seventy five as well? Uh, minus one seventy five is gonna be your best number here. Let's split the difference. We'll call minus one eighty, just so it's an available number for everyone if they want to bet it. But anyway, Drycus du plesus. This one jumped out to me. Number one, uh for our our biting people who to bet in the UFC in the octagon, Younger, taller, longer reach line move. That's really my angle here when I'd like to bet UFC. So he is so he is younger, He's younger than Darren Till. Duplessis is twenty eight, Till is twenty nine. Nothing crazy but one year youth advantage. He's taller six ft one versus six ft. He's got a longer reach seventy six versus seventy four and a half. So we're checking off all those boxes. The line has moved pretty big towards Duplessis. He open is low as like minus one thirty all the way up to now minus one eighty. But here's really the thing that gets me going why I want to bet duplessis when I got the batch of data, and I always look towards I always get excited every Friday when my boy, when my buddy John Ewing from bet MGM sends us these bet splits because it really what jumps out to me is if I can get a fade the trendy dog play like almost like hockey. Um, you know UFC, you do see like two thirds of favorites win. It's a chalky sport. But obviously, you know, because these big numbers, you have to win at a high rate just to overcome the juice. But anyway, Drakis duplessis coming from bet bet MGM. He's only getting eighteen percent of bets till Darren Till is getting eighty two percent of bets. So if eighty two percent of bets around Darren Til, why is the line going to Draycus du plusus. If Duplessis is only getting eighteen percent of bets, why the hell did he move from like minus one thirty five, minus one forty all the way up to minus one eighty. That screams fade the trendy dog. It's an incredibly trendy dog. With Till getting eighty two percent, get the line keeps going to Duplessus. So I'm just gonna take this one bet here. There are a couple others that were kind of on the fence for me, But I feel like we have a pretty good edge with Duplessis as a data driven play. So it's gonna be my one uh one angle here this weekend. It's gonna be Draycus Duplessis minus one eighty for biting in the arena tomorrow night. That about does it for today's Visa Market Insights Podcast, Episode seven eighteen uh and again our reminder if you enjoy the Market Insights Podcast, if you've learned a few things, if you've taken more of a contrarian mindset here and if you can hear, this is Meadow in the background. She's she's joining the pod to say hello. But if the Market Insights Pot or the Morning Betspot has helped you to make smarter bets, to beat some closing lines, to take a contrarian angle, to lean on systems and betting percentages in line moves, or maybe you've become a flatbetter you know, longer parlay everything. You don't chase. You just stick to the model, stick to the blueprint. You grind. There's up, there's good days and there's bad days, but you stick to it and you stick with it. And I had a couple of a couple of good winning days in a row here, So either way the pot has helped you to become a better better or uh, if you just want to make my day, you want to let me know you appreciate the hard work guy put in grinding in the arena every day. Or is it's it's the holiday season and you have no freaking clue what to get the people the people in your life that you love. What? What heck am I gonna get my dad for Christmas? Or for Hottka or your aunt, your uncle or your your grandfather or your cousin or your nephew. I'll make it very easy on you know what you should get them? You should go to Amazon dot com and type in the Everything Guy to Sports Betting. That's my book. Uh, it'll teach you everything that I've learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a betting person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bank roll management plan. All included in my book, The Everything Guy to Sports Betting. So you know it's always great when Grandma gets you the collared shirt. I missed those days. R I p to my Graham, or your mom gets you you know, a pair of boxers, or you get a nice winner had all that's all great, but you know, you know what I want. I want something that I can turn into money, I can help me win, and I can make get something out of it to me. That's where the everything guy to sports betting can be beneficial to you or someone in your life who maybe it's interested in betting, or it's about to go legal soon. But if you want to pick one up, especially for the holiday season, it's twenty bucks, it's a good stocking stuff and it's not gonna set you back, and hopefully you want a couple of bets and it's already paid for itself. So, uh, you want to pick up a copy of mean a lot to me if you already have, thank you, thank you, and thank you again. With that being said, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook and New Hampshire, Foxwood, or Mohicans Son down in Connecticut. I just found out today the Encore and Boston just got the first license for legalized betting in mass So when I see you at the Encore a month from now, or out in New York with Bernie and with Ed and I didn't see a picture of the new dog you guys got, Oliver the chocolate Lab, so I can't wait for him to meet meadow uh to to uh the in laws. They're out in New York, in New York, or out in the desert where the true grinders get down where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the loose tuos possible is found at the South Point, or at my other favorite place in the world to go to Circa Stadium swim set in sharp Contrarian plays with Stormy in the crew uh and getting a victory Burger at the end of the night after last night, Good Victory Night, or at the Mantel a Bear or the Super Book my two other favorite books. When I visit Vegas, hurber it maybe uh, you're gonna walk up to me. You're gonna show me a Raiders under ticket. Hell yeah, show me a Iowa underticket, show me a Winnipeg Jets ticket, show me a dance with the one who brung you. Don't go crazy, stick with your bet, Miami Heat over ticket and guess what. First one's on me, next one's on you. We're gonna posted about the book so that sharp contraying plays all night. I wish to the best of luck, have a fantastic weekend. Reminder, I will be on the Sweat as I am every Sunday and Draft Kings. So again I told you, I'm on Detroit money line in Tampa Bay plus two points. But they're all those late moves. If you want to get updated on some late moves like last week, remember those couple of games at late movement. Who was about Pittsburgh and a couple others that I forget. All these games blend into one. But if you look at for late moves updates, check us out eleven am to noon. There'll be a live stream on Twitter. I'll tweet it out and I'll retweet it. It'll come from the Draft Kings account as well. But I will see you guys there on Sunday for the Sweat and then we'll be back at it on Monday. So enjoy your weekend. My parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrary in bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the house. Always be with the smart money. Never against it will smart money when every time, of course not. But we're playing a long game. And if we can play that long game and find those games that fit our model, fit our blueprint, fit that sweet spot against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlay's get some closing line value. If we can do that, we're gonna be okay long term. So see we can finish off the week on a hot note. Guys, let's let's do it for Churchill. Let's let's have the Churchill week. Continue to uh, continue to cash for us, but have a great weekend. Don't forget to tip your ticket writer. Uh. And uh, maybe you got a holiday party. We actually a holiday party tomorrow night. So it's a little early in the season. But bust out the ugly sweaters. Uh in the you know the egg nog that's spiked. Uh maybe the Bailey's with with hot cocoa. I hope everyone has a great, happy, healthy weekend, and see we can hit the ground running as Bowl week really gets started next week. But enjoy the sweats so we can keep up the good couple of days here, guys, turn into a good weekend. Enjoy all the games. Have a great weekend, good luck, and I'll see you back on Monday. Take care,