Do you guys feel it. We're in the mid term sprint right now. We are heading into one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime. You know the stakes. I know the stakes. We've seen what this administration has done. Joe Biden has destroyed our country in two years. Did you ever think he could do this much damage in such a short period of time. We've got record high inflation, gas prices are up, the indoctrination of kids in schools. We've got the d o J and the FBI targeting patriotic Americans. So everything is at stake on November eight. Everything, the future of this country, the future of your kids. It's the life or death scenario. When we see the d o J and the FBI targeting patriotic Americans. Everything is at stake this November. And what I don't want to happen is for people to get demoralized because you're watching the media, You're you're reading what they're printing about this election. Because they are wrong. They're wrong about what's happening in the country right now. They're going to be wrong again on November eight. I'm telling you this, go back to look at the mistakes that were made in pulling in. There was a report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research finding that national surveys in were the least accurate in forty years. State polls were the least accurate in two decades. I mean, you can look at polls heading into the election. ABC had Joe Biden winning Wisconsin by seventeen He won by less than a point. Even in Florida. The Real Clear Politics average, which it's not the fault of the Real Clear Politics Average, it's it's the fault of the pollsters that they're averaging out, but it had Joe Biden up by one point two in Florida. Biden lost big to Trump. Trump won with a margin of three point four percent. And there's examples across the country. I don't want to bore you, but the point is they got it wrong. Why did they get it wrong. My opinion of why they got it wrong they wanted to get it wrong. Their intent is not to capture the election, it's to shape the election, and it works. We saw this in Arizona recently, where you have Blake Masters. If you listen to the polls, he's in striking distance. I think he's probably up in Arizona. To be perfectly honest with you, but we saw the impact of what this public polling does. You had Mitch McConnell's superpack, the Senate Leadership Fund. They canceled nine point six million dollars in television ads for Blake Master in the Arizona Senate race. Why do you think they did that? One, I think Mitch McConnell would rather be in charge in the minority than lose. You know, they no longer be the Senate majority leader if Republicans were to win. But also because these posters who get it wrong intentionally, they make an impact. They shape dollars going into these campaigns. They shape people's desire to donate. If they don't think that a candidate can win, they're not going to donate. It discourages voters and thinking, oh, I don't know, I'm looking at the polls. I don't think my guy can pull it. Dosh, Should I just sit home? And that's the intent, that's the intent by behind a lot of these public opinion posters getting it so wrong. I mean, you still have posters doing registered voter surveys, which is moronic. There there's no reason every poster should be doing likely voter survey. So the point is a lot of these people, a lot of these public opinion posters, they're trying to impact the way you see the elector. They're not trying to tell you what's actually happening, and it's intentional. So what I'm gonna do today is bring someone on who I know is going to give you the truth. And I know this because I used to work for them before I got into Before I got into television and the media, I worked in politics. I worked on Capitol Hill for a number of years. I worked on campaigns, top Senate races, and I was also a vice president of polling. And I worked for this guy, Chris Wilson. He's the founder and CEO of a company called w p A Intelligence. The guy is good. Right in one he was named Poster of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants for his work. He also did predictive analytics on the Glenn Yucan for Governor campaign. He worked for Cruises campaign in Obviously he did very well there, didn't win. Trump pulled it out. But point bing is, this guy is good. A lot of this stuff he does is for private clients, which means that he puts in a lot more leg work to make sure that he's getting things right, unlike a lot of these public opinion posters. But the point of this podcast is to tell you that we have which you guys know at home, everyone listening to this knows we have the most important election. This is for everything, This is for the future of our country. I don't have kids yet. What kind of country am I going to be bringing children into by the time I give birth? And I have kids and I gotta find a husband for so we're talking. You know, there's a little bit to go here in terms of timing. But this election is important. We all feel what everyone listening. We know how important this election is. So I don't want you to be discouraged because we are being lied to and it's intentional. So the point of this podcast is to bring someone on who is going to tell us the truth, who's going to get to the bottom of what's actually happening, what the actual dynamics are at play with the actual electorate looks like as we head into this midterm sprint. So that's what we're gonna do today with Chris Wilson. Stay tuned, Chris Wilson, It's been a while since we've caught up. A lot's happened, like you know, the destruction of the country and everything following apart. It's it's really bad. As you know, Chris, you've been following this stuff for a really long time. Look at the landscape, the political landscape today. Where do things fall? What does it look like to you? Is you are looking at pulling every day? Well, it's you know, the one thing that I have the benefit of that most people don't is the leading indicator of every morning when I walk in is you know this least that used to work with me. Is we've got pulling from all over the country. And as you saw in the New York Times poll this weekend, the Republicans have a republic can go back ahead in the generic ballot. Now, we saw that happen uh here at w P A Intelligence probably about a week before the New York Times did. And that is because we're seeing it directly from campaigns. And so when you look at a national poll, as you're well aware that you're gonna it's gonna be heavily influenced by number, by the sampling that goes on in states like New York or California that are a lot of the sample size from national So it's always gonna be a little bit trailing of what we're going to see from an individual race. And it has. I have been optimistic now for probably about two and a half weeks, and that is what makes it um makes me bullish on not just the House, but also the Senate. And I think the Republicans are going to have a very good night. Uh here, what are we out? Now? How many days out? I should notice by heart since I'm gonna finally come up for air exactly, and it is. I think we're gonna You're gonna see Republicans win a lot of races that nobody's expecting. I give an example that it's one I'll mention when I'm not involveding's a little bit easier to quote of somebody else's numbers on my own. But Lezeldon for governor of New York. Uh he is right now within the margin of error against the Democrat income of governor. That is shocking. If anyone had told you or me at the beginning the cycle that Republicans could pick up the governorship in New York, we would have just laughed and said, yeah, no chance, and people laughed at Les Eldon when he left Congress to go run for it. Yet I think that is likely to happen, and so I think you're gonna see a sweep here on November eight, at the same level that Republicans saw in n and two thousand ten and two thousand fourteen, and potentially even better because you've got things going on. As you know that, we look up this morning and find out that Joe Biden is pretty much emptying out the strategic oil reserve. And let's not let's not forget. This is the strategic oil reserve that Donald Trump and Republicans in the House and Senate tried to refiel refill, right but just a couple of short years ago, and Democrats blocked him from doing it doing it because they didn't want him to get a win. So, as you mentioned, the level of destructions going on our company and country right now is almost at the catastrophic level. Democrats blocked improvement levels, blocked building wall blocks, like I said, refilling the strategic oil reserves. And now you've got Democrats tapped reaping what they have sown in that they shut down our energy independence. We have to import oil, and so they're emptying out what Republicans put into it. You see, you see migrants of flooding our borders. Everyone's coming into our borders. And Democrats now doing declaring states of emergency because Republicans are like, all right, enough, if you want, you can declare in New York City or washing d C or Caglos the sanctuary city or sanctuary state. We'll ship them your way. And now they were, hold on, we were just kidding, what didn't know what I mean that? So I do. I am very optimistic about what's going to happen, and I think, you know, one more thing, I'll mention and then I'll shut up. Is the biggest shift we have seen over the course of the last few weeks is with independent women. And make no mistake, independent women were our loss with and I'll even categorizing geographically suburban independent women was almost catastrophe back in two thousand and eighteen. And I would have thought it would take a generation to see that undo itself. But COVID shutdowns, educational shutdowns, and Joe Biden's incompetence baffling presidency elected Glenn Yuncan who I was involved in his race back in last cycle. And it's going to have the impact of a almost a Republican suite coming here in a couple of short weeks. Well, and you mentioned, you know, two thousands ten, I was at the NRCC there where, you know, you do have when you have these wave elections, as you've experienced, you know, you you pick up seats you weren't expecting. And we've got you know, Joe Biden has been in Oregon campaigning for the Democrat candidate candidate there, and Christine Drayson, the Republican candidate, has a shot. Now there's a third. You know, there's an independent Rudding who's sort of playing spoiler there as well. But I mean, the fact that Joe Biden is in Oregon says a lot about what's coming. You know, how big of a suite do you think it could be? I mean, I know these things are tough to tell, but you know, if it was today, how big do you think this thing could be? I think you would see Republicans pick up in the mid thirties in the House. I think you would see them pick up and not just hold seats. Remember, they've got a hold seats like Pennsylvania where you've got dr Osy and Studman where he Fedderman had a double digit lead for a long time. It's now margin of air. Uh, not just hold states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, that where your Republicans retired, but go pick up. I think you're gonna see Republicans pick up seats in Nevada, in Georgia, in Uh. I mean, Arizona is getting tied. You've got Kelly only at one point over Masters. You've I think these Masters ends up winning. So I think you can see Republicans pick up two to five seats in the Senate and then the governor's level. And that is that's the one place that I really just don't have a good feel because it is like you said, you mentioned Oregon. Uh. You know, if you're not doing the pulling yourself there, you're not aware. I think I think you're gonna see Gretchen WiBro loose in Michigan, for example, and nobody would have seen that a while back. You've got carry Lake, who is up now in Arizona over Hobbs. We pulled out this morning from the Daily Wire has carry Lake up three points. I mean It is just it's shocking to see how much movement is taking place here in the course of the last week or so. The only thing that worries me about Pennsylvania, and I'd love to get your opinion on this, is you have Master Roano, the candidate running for governor, who's behind by like double digits and pulling right now. So how much would that impact Oz, who is within the margin of error at least that's what it looks like in pulling. Conversely, you have a situation in Georgia where Brian camp is up by you know, six seven, you know, I think six in the real clear politics average, who could then pull herschel Walker with him? So so talk about that dynamic and how that could play out in your estimation. Well, it's interesting in terms of the way and uh hopefully remember some of us whenever you worked with us, and when you write a poll, you write it to where the it's the questions are asked and the order the ballot is asked and a Pennsylvania, as you point out, the governor's race is is at the top of the ballot. But I'm less pessimistic about mass Triano, I think than most people are and it is. I know him, I've helped, I've been involved in the race. I wouldn't say I'm directly involved like I usually when I've done a couple of pulls for him along the way. I wish I was more involved because, frankly, I think he is a he is someone who's painted unfairly by the media. He is he's a soldier, a blee, he's a PhDs at least a master's degree. He's a brilliant man, and he's someone, like I said, has been painted unfairly. And I do think he ends up pulling out that race. So I think it'll be close, but I do think he and Oz both win because I believe you're gonna see turnout in the rural areas of Pennsylvania where Governor Wolfe shut down schools and it was a really disastrous for a lot of families that are now dealing with trying to get their kids back up to speed. Uh from educational standpoints, I think you're gonna see people in the rural and suburban areas that would have voted for Shapiro, the Democrat nominee, who are gonna say, you know what, I'm not going to let another Democrat destroy my child's education and vote from Mastrolano instead of that. And I think so I believe Oz and master Anio will actually both end up winning. I don't. I'm not gonna make prediction on who wins up pointing about more right likely it would be Oz. But we've been shocked in those situations before. And as you mentioned, I mean, Brian camp Has has run a great campaign. I would say, stay see Abrams is run the kind of campaign she ran last time. She spends a lot of time complaining about the last election. And you know, she's really the one true election denier in the United States these days, and I think kimp is appointed by you don't hear about that from the media now, You're really don't. And that's what I love about Carry Lakes. There, the Republican nominee who is a former member of the media in Arizona. Every time somebody asked her about being an election doesn't denier, they asked, She asked, when's the last times when I asked Stacy Abrams about that? And of course the answer is never, because they won't. So it is It's really nice to see somebody who is able to turn that around on the media the way that the way that she does. But I do think Kimp wins by double digits. So because of that, I think Hersha Washer wins Um wins as well. And the beauty of Georgia is they changed the way their elections are counted and to some extent and conducted. But you know, the whole thing about oh they made it unfair, that was completely proven false. During the primaries, you had record turnout, and so we're gonna know on election night what happens in Georgia the same way we do in most Republican in states. It seems to be the Democrats that have trouble counting ballots for some reason, but it will be it won't be a situation like class time where we have to wait, uh wait in a more an amount of time to find out who wins. And the other aspects on the Senate race in Georgia that you know, I keep hearing people there are two independents in the race. There's an independent and then there's a social worker policy or social communist political organizer who's on the ballot too, uh And so a lot of people have suggested that it might go to ROTHI and I don't think that will be the case. I think Walker will get above there. Let's take a quick commercial break back with Chris Wilson on the other side. I wanted to ask you, you know, you had mentioned the New York Times poll previously. I think a lot of people have, you know, sort of lost faith and most of our institution, including posters. I know that, you know, because you do a lot of work for for private clients, You're putting an extra leg work that a lot of these public posters are doing. But yeah, I mean, we look at the election. You look at that report from the American Station for Public Opinion Research, and presidential polls were the least accurate, and forty year state polls were or were the least accurate in two decades. I mean, we still have posters doing registered voter surveys right now. So I mean, kind of what's your broader take on some of these public opinion posters and why they seem to keep getting things wrong? You know, at least it's a really important question, and it's one that I struggled to answer because, as you mentioned, you do still have posters political particularly media posters that are doing registered voter sampling. And what that means for anybody of you who is uh, you know, he doesn't follow this stuff as closely as least than I do. It means that what is uh, they're talking to just anyone who's a registered voter, and in some cases they're talking to adults and asking them the registered to vote, which means about of people they talked to are lyine. So the right way to do a poll right now is to build a predictive model and then take that predictive model and to those who are most likely to vote. Now, that is how we do ours. And it is as you say, it's very different. Uh, what we see is very different than what most most media puts out. And it's really there are crimes of comission and crimes of omission. And the question is is what's going on on the press side. Are they trying to create polls that showed the Democrat winning? And I would submit to you is both. Unfortunately, I don't think that anyone could have done a poll in the state of Wisconsin that had Joe Biden up eighteen points the weekend before the election the way the Washington Post did. And you guys can fact checking on this go google it. Washington Post the weekend before the election had Joe Biden up eighteen points. He won by lesson a point. I think it is very difficult for anyone to argue that that had no impact on voters. If you believe that there that the candidate you were supporting is going to lose by double digits, it is likely to have an impact on whether or not you turn out and vote. And so that being the case, I think it is UM it's unfortunate that we have to answer this question because it does create uh, it creates skepticism in our industry, and it creates a situation where you uh, where people just don't take polling seriously anymore. And as you know, that should not be the case because right now we UM, we are very good at predicting what happens for our clients. And in fact, you won't stay working in the political point industry if you tell the candidate they're gonna win and they lose, and just it's pretty fundamentally the case is that you've got to be right on these things. So what has happened? It gets back to your original question, what is happening? The question is I just don't know, because I don't know what they're doing that to make it so wrong that how could you create a situation or a poll that shows Joe Biden when in my eighteen points where wins by less than a point. And that's not the only place that happened, by the way, I'll give you a few other examples. In the Arizona election, the point average at the end and had Kelly winning by six, the only one by two. Uh. In Georgia they had were off by almost ten points. And particularly special election in Iowa, the public polling had the Democrat winning by two and in the average did Johnny Arts won by six. In Maine, the public pollint had get In winning by six uh, collinses and Collins one by nine. And I'll give you one more and I'll shut up about it. The public polling in North Carolina had cunning him winning by four, tell us one by two. So you go through all those different situations and you look at well, how could they be so wrong? And the answer is, I just don't know. But I will say this, when you look at public polling this year that has a close race or has a Democratic by a little bit, if I was betting on the predicted markets, and I don't. I was then on the Republican because there's something going on in public media polling that tradition that just consistently favors the Democrats. And I can tell you our internal polling does not show that, does not do that. It is um. It is meticulous, and its approach to making sure that we are adequately sampling enough enough of every party and that we're actually talking to people who are going to vote. And that's challenging right now because particularly when you look at who's going to vote in an off your election like two, and you look at the enthusiasm numbers twin Republicans and Democrats, if you are doing a sample which is the last off your election, which is what most media polling is probably doing, you are going to oversample Democrats. And that's going to be proved to be as inaccurate today as it was in twenty six and and uh so it's just really it's a problem, I think for the polling community, and as you point out, is constantly um. It is constantly evaluated by the American Associates Public Opinion researchers, but nothing's really ever done about it. I mean I'm jaded. So I personally believe it's intentional bias because we know how much of an impact these polls have and mean, you you you've got you know, don't like you had McConnell pull out of Arizona, right, So, like these guys are looking at the polling and they're making decisions about what races to invest in. An Unfortunately, we could get to a scenario where one of these races it's, you know, we lose by a point or we lose by you know, votes, and what would you know? And if you had originally kept that multimillion dollar investment that email, whatever it was, I forget what it was in Arizona, we maybe we could have won it, right, And so I intentionally think that these posters are trying to paint oblique outbook for Republicans to impact the overall election. It's just that Trump derangement syndrome, that Republican derangement syndrome. That's what that has seeped in to every aspect of our society. But I wanted to get your take on Uh, you know, I'm hearing it's been tough. You know, I think it was like the hidden Trump vote and and you know, Republicans being less inclined to want to answer or pick up talk to these people. How much of a challenge has it been for for you guys and trying to get accurate polls and Republicans maybe being less inclined to identify themselves. You know that's funny about it. Yes, you hear a lot about that. The media complains about it, but we don't find that problem and it is I'm maybe that's because as can you're well aware from working with us for a while, we were meticulous in the building of our stratifications at the beginning of the sample, of building our sample frame. But I will say here is the one place, like on the Young Can polling, most polling had UH hadcall winning. Ours did not. We had young Enough, and we had him up for the last couple of weeks and it wasn't. I don't think there was any polling that came out that had young Enough except for our internals. And I think you were still working with at this point too. In sixteen, as you may remember, our internal polling I did Ted Cruzis polling US presidential campaign. Our internal polling had us winning in Iowa. There was not a single public poll that did it all had that shared that notion. They all had Trump winning and most of them had had Ruby all moving into second place. And you can go to Real Clear Politics average and look at that. When we knew internally we were going to win, And that comes from the way in which we built out our sample based on education. And I think that's one of our biggest lessons from the last few so I goals is, yes, it can be more difficult to interview Republicans without a college degree. It's very easy to get voters who have a college degree on the phone. They're just easier. They don't change phone numbers as much. They're more I could answer and on them cell phone numbers. Just a lot of reasons for that, whereas it does take a lot of interviewing to get those without a college degree. And so I think some of that probably feeds into it. It certainly was the case in Northern Virginia. I mean least, I would look at some polls coming out of Virginia in which they had the sample in Northern Virginia sample in Northern Virginia had a college career greater. Well, that's a higher percentage of the electorate than than has a college degree than in Cambridge, Massachusetts, or Berkeley, California. It was just inaccurate, and I would immediately point that out to the people who sent it to me, like, oh, it's only off my few points, Marge of Vera. No it's not, Marge of Vera. It's like twenty five points off. And if you've got a twenty five point subsample that is a completely different ideological bent than the electorate as a whole. It's only to make the entire survey off by a point or two. And so I think some of that feeds into it. It's just it's maybe some laziness, could be laziness on the part of the phone center that does the interviewing. There's a lot of things that feed into it. But I'll say this to wrap it, to wrap up my comments, there is no way an accurate poll could have been done in Wisconsin the weekend before the presidential election that showed your mind, not by eighteen points. That is a crime of comission. And to your point, it is certainly one that kept people at home, and it most likely had an impact on the present on the election of the president of United States. And I think that's the intention. I really do. I just I think that, you know, we look at the bias in every aspect every institution in America, and I think it's it's got. The posters are more interested in disrupting the election than they are about capturing the election, and I sadly, I think that's where we are today. You know, I wanted to ask you you look at like Democrats. Their closing argument seems to be, we need to abort babies up until the moment of birth in January six? Have we told you about January six? Which seems like a strategic mistake, Chris, when you know you've got families really suffering financially, worried about being able to put food on the table, afford the roof over the head, you know how much of a strategic mistake is their messaging? And it has their messaging been you know, it's um. Yeah, there's no question that they have completely overplayed their hand on abortion. And the problem is is you point out they are. And there's a great article to Washing Examiner today by Kaylee White and which is the title is Democrats will finally being forced to own their abortion extremism. And I think what you've see. One of the reasons why you have seen independent women shift in the way that they have is twofold. One is, of course inflation and the fact that I'll never forget. We did a focus group of independent women in Virginia and there's a woman there was what it was all about, asking not the issue of abortion, and one said, look, you know, I have to buy grocery every day. That's put gas in my car almost every day. I have to pay taxes every day. I don't get an abortion every day. So no, that's not going, in fact my choice for governor. I want to make sure my kids go to school and have a good education. Those are things I worry about every day. And so right now I think you're seeing people make chore. It's kind of a Maslow's hierarchy of issues, if you will, on an from a standpoint of what what is going to impact someone's life on a daily basis. So that's a strategic mistake by Democrats. But the other aspect of the strategic mistake is Democrats are finding out that they are the extremists on the issue of life and for for stins of history, it's um you can look at the eighteen sixty two election, and the Democrat Party in eighteen sixty two made their entire message about Abraham Lincoln, if you reelect, if you send Abraham Lincoln Republican Congress, a Republican Senate, he will free the slaves. That was their entire message in eighteen sixty two. Now, of course they don't own that today, they don't talk about that very much, but that was the what you're seeing today with the way they are treating an issue of life, is the moral equivalent of the Democratic Party in eighteen sixty two, where their entire message was send us back to Congress and we will make sure Abraham Lincoln doesn't free the slaves. And it's like this year, we're saying, send us back to Congress and we will make sure the Republicans don't say babies. It's pretty wild, you know. And you know, and most Americans aren't there. You know, they don't believe in abortion up until the moment of birth. They fully recognize that it's not a clump of sales. As they try to tell us that, you know, it doesn't make sense logically or from a common sense standpoint. You know, when you're looking at you know, you're talking to these volder, these voters, you're doing these focus groups, You're seeing the issues. What are the top issues on Americans minds right now? I know, no inflation, but are there any surprises or is it pretty much what we would think? You know, it really is what you would think. It is. Inflation, is gas prices, is grocery prices? And education the only surprise And it maybe isn't a surprise anymore, because as I mentioned, we really saw this manifest itself in the young and versus mccaulloff election, in which Glenn Yuncan made it very clear that he would not have closed schools, and so he gave and he was able to put to point to the Rhonda Santis is the Kevin Stitz in Oklahoma, to unless your extent to Greg Abbotts and Texas and show the example of states that did not close their schools and didn't fall behind in education. And so what that allowed is is that you know, it's even to take the analogy further. Uh, the night before the election of Canada's Sunday on Monday night, Terry mccauloff campaigned not with Joe Biden, not with Kamala Harris, not even with Barack Obama, but a campaign with Randy Weinarter. And for anyone who doesn't know who that is, she's head of the American Federation Teachers and she is the one probably foremost responsible for the for the shedding schools and the keep and keeping schools closed. And candidly we were high fiving on the campaign. We need it. We need to check this to see if it's an in kind of contribution to our to us. And she continues to campaign on behalf of Democrats. And what that has done is it has made education. It has gone from an issue that Democrats led by about twenty points on just a couple of cycles ago, that were two Republicans leading on it. So on the key issues facing America today, inflation, Republicans lead on gas prices, Republicans lead on homeownership, Republicans lead on the economy, and general Republicans lead, but education Republicans now lead. And in the most recent poll polling that we're getting the highest I have seen abortion on a list of most important issues is seventh in the last week seventh and Lisa, I have not seen January six mentioned in the verbatives on the survey much less as the most important issue probably since about Midsummer. So that tells you, as you mentioned at the beginning, what Democrats are closing on is taxpayer funded abortion at any age through the ninth through the ninth month and the canal and oh yeah, January six. That's not a winning message for them, and it's really I think they're going to pay the price for it again in a couple of weeks quick break more. In the mid terms, we were being told with a straight face by the media that Democrats could somehow outrun an incredibly unpopular president, when mid terms are always a referendum on the party in charge of the president in charge. But yet they sat there with a straight face trying to tell us that things were happening that we're not talk about that. Well, I think the key thing, I think the part there that I'll be critical of our party in this situation, unless with the media, because we've spent so much time beating them up. I do think there are some campaigns that didn't do a great job for a while tying their opponents to Joe Biden. So I remember I was actually given a talk at Freedom Works a few weeks ago and John McLoughlin was a very talented poster, a good friend, and he was actually the polster on the campaign that I man Inch did in nineteen ninety four, a long time ago. Right, it was David McIntosh who's now head of the Club for Growth. I ran his campaign for Congress. And John pointed out I was in the audience, had spoken just before him. He said, you know, at this point in nine Chris was already morphing. Joe Hogs said, who was our opponent at the time. He's now mayor of Indianapolis, points stilling or interesting into Bill Clinton's face. So why are Republicans doing that? And I thought, you know, that's a great that's a really important point. So I want to give John credit for it. And I think there were a lot of Republican campaigns that were running talking about the issues, which is good. But let's face it, whenever you are running astkinstan Comming in most of these situations, we were trying to beat incumbents. You take more Kelly versus Blake Masters Mark Kelly. They voters need to be told why they should fire him, and they should fire him because he's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. They should fire Katherine Cortez Masco because she's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. They should fire her off from the war on because she he is a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. And I think a lot of campaigns were running on issues are running on, spent a little bit too much time telling the story as to why they should be elected instead of talking there about their opponents. And there's probably a lot of altruistic sort of people who listening to your podcast who are like, well, I believe in that. I believe we should give people a reason to vote for us, And yes, we absolutely should, but we need to do it and move on. Because if you want to get a job and somebody else, sorry has that job, that person has to be fired before you can hire be hired. That's just a basic tenant of the way political campaigns work and the way people's decision ranking process goes. So it is. I think that was kind of a situation where maybe a few too many campaigns waited a little bit too long to begin tying their opponent to Biden, and the media probably did a good job head faked us out of that and saying, oh, it's a people are separating, so some Biden it's uh, they can still win. So people bought into that. Candidates brought into that. Campaigns one of that Okay, let me go give people a reason as to why they should vote for me. Well, okay, you've done it. Move on. These last two weeks. Any campaign that's spending a single dollar not mentioning tying their opponent to Joe Biden is wasting that dollars. That makes a lot of sense. And I also just kind of a thought popped in my thought bubble popped in my head when you're talking about Biden, because I don't know if you saw herschel Walker or with NBC and they asked him if there's any common ground he could find with Biden. He's like, well you likes ice cream. That's actually really good line. Yeah. I know, maybe it made me laugh because I thought that was just like funny, you know, and it kind of you know, ribbing him, but in a you know, in a likable way. Um. You know, I know you're a busy guy. You're you're working on races around the country. You probably aren't sleeping right now. What should people before we go you know, Chris, what should people be looking for in pulling and the dynamics of these races as we head into these mid term sprint? You know, we see you man the most important one. The pole comes out. First of all, check the sample. Are they talking to registried voters? If so, don't need pay attention. Are they talking to adults? If so, throw it away and never read the publication again. If they're talking to likely voters, pay attention. But the other thing you want to look at is whether whether or not that likely voter universe looks like a eighteen sample and now I know I'm getting really deep into it, or if it looks like a ten or twenty ten sample, because two out here it is that's the sleep thing. Uh is gonna look a lot more like en than it is gonna look like ten. So that's number one. I think the second thing I would do is take it with a grain of salt. If a pole has a democrat up even double, did you think about what you think about some of the examples. I gave a little bit ago where I talked about Greenfield in Ohio being up by two and or its winning by seven. When I talked about getting and being up by six and Collins winning by nine. When I talked about Cunningham being up by four, until it's winning by two or even in South Carolina where Lindsey Graham, most of the poles at the end had him down or in a dead heat, he won by ten. So don't know, just because a pole has a Democrat up by a point or two doesn't mean that they're going to win. In fact, most likely at that level, it probably means the Republicans going to win. So when you see a poll come out and a couple of them I saw come out this morning out of Pennsylvania that has a Federment up over Oz by two, you might want to take read into that that Oust is probably gonna win. When you see one come out like came out yesterday out of Georgia that had uh Warnock and Walker in a tie, and then that probably means the lockers up, particularly it has Camp up six. So it's I really get skeptical whenever I see the public polling that has Democrats up, and I look at the ones where I am involved in center races I'm doing. Um, I've mentioned las All a few times. Um he is up he's he is awesome. He's been up in seventh straight polls, and I'll tell you he's he's most likely to win that race. I'll tell you Eric Eric Schmidt in Missouri, who I'm working with, I mean that he's gonna win that thing going away. Republicans are going to have a very good year, and I think if any pulling that doesn't reflect that, I would be suspective immediately. Good to know, Chris Wilson. You're busy man. I appreciate you taking the time. I know this is a really important election, so we appreciate your insight. Thanks so much, Chris. Happy to do it, Lisa, great catch up. That was Chris Wilson. I used to work for him. He's a really really solid poster. He does great work. And more than solid, he's does great work. Uh. It takes a lot of pride in getting things right with w p A Intelligence. He's the founder and CEO, been in the game for a long time, so you know, it just goes to show you how much we're led to by all these people, right, you know, And that's the whole point of this podcast is trying to identify people like him who can really get to the bottom of what's happening, which you're you're not going to get swere in the media, right, You're not gonna get it when you turn on TV and they're still doing register voter surveys or they're talking to the same people who have gotten every single thing wrong for forever, right, but you know, so hopefully we'll learned a lot from that. Appreciate you guys listening to the show. I want to thank John Cassie On, my producer, for putting it together every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week. Feel free to leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, give us a rating, share with your friends, your family. Appreciate you guys listening. Until next time.

Do you guys feel it. We're in the mid term sprint right now. We are heading into one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime. You know the stakes. I know the stakes. We've seen what this administration has done. Joe Biden has destroyed our country in two years. Did you ever think he could do this much damage in such a short period of time. We've got record high inflation, gas prices are up, the indoctrination of kids in schools. We've got the d o J and the FBI targeting patriotic Americans. So everything is at stake on November eight. Everything, the future of this country, the future of your kids. It's the life or death scenario. When we see the d o J and the FBI targeting patriotic Americans. Everything is at stake this November. And what I don't want to happen is for people to get demoralized because you're watching the media, You're you're reading what they're printing about this election. Because they are wrong. They're wrong about what's happening in the country right now. They're going to be wrong again on November eight. I'm telling you this, go back to look at the mistakes that were made in pulling in. There was a report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research finding that national surveys in were the least accurate in forty years. State polls were the least accurate in two decades. I mean, you can look at polls heading into the election. ABC had Joe Biden winning Wisconsin by seventeen He won by less than a point. Even in Florida. The Real Clear Politics average, which it's not the fault of the Real Clear Politics Average, it's it's the fault of the pollsters that they're averaging out, but it had Joe Biden up by one point two in Florida. Biden lost big to Trump. Trump won with a margin of three point four percent. And there's examples across the country. I don't want to bore you, but the point is they got it wrong. Why did they get it wrong. My opinion of why they got it wrong they wanted to get it wrong. Their intent is not to capture the election, it's to shape the election, and it works. We saw this in Arizona recently, where you have Blake Masters. If you listen to the polls, he's in striking distance. I think he's probably up in Arizona. To be perfectly honest with you, but we saw the impact of what this public polling does. You had Mitch McConnell's superpack, the Senate Leadership Fund. They canceled nine point six million dollars in television ads for Blake Master in the Arizona Senate race. Why do you think they did that? One, I think Mitch McConnell would rather be in charge in the minority than lose. You know, they no longer be the Senate majority leader if Republicans were to win. But also because these posters who get it wrong intentionally, they make an impact. They shape dollars going into these campaigns. They shape people's desire to donate. If they don't think that a candidate can win, they're not going to donate. It discourages voters and thinking, oh, I don't know, I'm looking at the polls. I don't think my guy can pull it. Dosh, Should I just sit home? And that's the intent, that's the intent by behind a lot of these public opinion posters getting it so wrong. I mean, you still have posters doing registered voter surveys, which is moronic. There there's no reason every poster should be doing likely voter survey. So the point is a lot of these people, a lot of these public opinion posters, they're trying to impact the way you see the elector. They're not trying to tell you what's actually happening, and it's intentional. So what I'm gonna do today is bring someone on who I know is going to give you the truth. And I know this because I used to work for them before I got into Before I got into television and the media, I worked in politics. I worked on Capitol Hill for a number of years. I worked on campaigns, top Senate races, and I was also a vice president of polling. And I worked for this guy, Chris Wilson. He's the founder and CEO of a company called w p A Intelligence. The guy is good. Right in one he was named Poster of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants for his work. He also did predictive analytics on the Glenn Yucan for Governor campaign. He worked for Cruises campaign in Obviously he did very well there, didn't win. Trump pulled it out. But point bing is, this guy is good. A lot of this stuff he does is for private clients, which means that he puts in a lot more leg work to make sure that he's getting things right, unlike a lot of these public opinion posters. But the point of this podcast is to tell you that we have which you guys know at home, everyone listening to this knows we have the most important election. This is for everything, This is for the future of our country. I don't have kids yet. What kind of country am I going to be bringing children into by the time I give birth? And I have kids and I gotta find a husband for so we're talking. You know, there's a little bit to go here in terms of timing. But this election is important. We all feel what everyone listening. We know how important this election is. So I don't want you to be discouraged because we are being lied to and it's intentional. So the point of this podcast is to bring someone on who is going to tell us the truth, who's going to get to the bottom of what's actually happening, what the actual dynamics are at play with the actual electorate looks like as we head into this midterm sprint. So that's what we're gonna do today with Chris Wilson. Stay tuned, Chris Wilson, It's been a while since we've caught up. A lot's happened, like you know, the destruction of the country and everything following apart. It's it's really bad. As you know, Chris, you've been following this stuff for a really long time. Look at the landscape, the political landscape today. Where do things fall? What does it look like to you? Is you are looking at pulling every day? Well, it's you know, the one thing that I have the benefit of that most people don't is the leading indicator of every morning when I walk in is you know this least that used to work with me. Is we've got pulling from all over the country. And as you saw in the New York Times poll this weekend, the Republicans have a republic can go back ahead in the generic ballot. Now, we saw that happen uh here at w P A Intelligence probably about a week before the New York Times did. And that is because we're seeing it directly from campaigns. And so when you look at a national poll, as you're well aware that you're gonna it's gonna be heavily influenced by number, by the sampling that goes on in states like New York or California that are a lot of the sample size from national So it's always gonna be a little bit trailing of what we're going to see from an individual race. And it has. I have been optimistic now for probably about two and a half weeks, and that is what makes it um makes me bullish on not just the House, but also the Senate. And I think the Republicans are going to have a very good night. Uh here, what are we out? Now? How many days out? I should notice by heart since I'm gonna finally come up for air exactly, and it is. I think we're gonna You're gonna see Republicans win a lot of races that nobody's expecting. I give an example that it's one I'll mention when I'm not involveding's a little bit easier to quote of somebody else's numbers on my own. But Lezeldon for governor of New York. Uh he is right now within the margin of error against the Democrat income of governor. That is shocking. If anyone had told you or me at the beginning the cycle that Republicans could pick up the governorship in New York, we would have just laughed and said, yeah, no chance, and people laughed at Les Eldon when he left Congress to go run for it. Yet I think that is likely to happen, and so I think you're gonna see a sweep here on November eight, at the same level that Republicans saw in n and two thousand ten and two thousand fourteen, and potentially even better because you've got things going on. As you know that, we look up this morning and find out that Joe Biden is pretty much emptying out the strategic oil reserve. And let's not let's not forget. This is the strategic oil reserve that Donald Trump and Republicans in the House and Senate tried to refiel refill, right but just a couple of short years ago, and Democrats blocked him from doing it doing it because they didn't want him to get a win. So, as you mentioned, the level of destructions going on our company and country right now is almost at the catastrophic level. Democrats blocked improvement levels, blocked building wall blocks, like I said, refilling the strategic oil reserves. And now you've got Democrats tapped reaping what they have sown in that they shut down our energy independence. We have to import oil, and so they're emptying out what Republicans put into it. You see, you see migrants of flooding our borders. Everyone's coming into our borders. And Democrats now doing declaring states of emergency because Republicans are like, all right, enough, if you want, you can declare in New York City or washing d C or Caglos the sanctuary city or sanctuary state. We'll ship them your way. And now they were, hold on, we were just kidding, what didn't know what I mean that? So I do. I am very optimistic about what's going to happen, and I think, you know, one more thing, I'll mention and then I'll shut up. Is the biggest shift we have seen over the course of the last few weeks is with independent women. And make no mistake, independent women were our loss with and I'll even categorizing geographically suburban independent women was almost catastrophe back in two thousand and eighteen. And I would have thought it would take a generation to see that undo itself. But COVID shutdowns, educational shutdowns, and Joe Biden's incompetence baffling presidency elected Glenn Yuncan who I was involved in his race back in last cycle. And it's going to have the impact of a almost a Republican suite coming here in a couple of short weeks. Well, and you mentioned, you know, two thousands ten, I was at the NRCC there where, you know, you do have when you have these wave elections, as you've experienced, you know, you you pick up seats you weren't expecting. And we've got you know, Joe Biden has been in Oregon campaigning for the Democrat candidate candidate there, and Christine Drayson, the Republican candidate, has a shot. Now there's a third. You know, there's an independent Rudding who's sort of playing spoiler there as well. But I mean, the fact that Joe Biden is in Oregon says a lot about what's coming. You know, how big of a suite do you think it could be? I mean, I know these things are tough to tell, but you know, if it was today, how big do you think this thing could be? I think you would see Republicans pick up in the mid thirties in the House. I think you would see them pick up and not just hold seats. Remember, they've got a hold seats like Pennsylvania where you've got dr Osy and Studman where he Fedderman had a double digit lead for a long time. It's now margin of air. Uh, not just hold states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, that where your Republicans retired, but go pick up. I think you're gonna see Republicans pick up seats in Nevada, in Georgia, in Uh. I mean, Arizona is getting tied. You've got Kelly only at one point over Masters. You've I think these Masters ends up winning. So I think you can see Republicans pick up two to five seats in the Senate and then the governor's level. And that is that's the one place that I really just don't have a good feel because it is like you said, you mentioned Oregon. Uh. You know, if you're not doing the pulling yourself there, you're not aware. I think I think you're gonna see Gretchen WiBro loose in Michigan, for example, and nobody would have seen that a while back. You've got carry Lake, who is up now in Arizona over Hobbs. We pulled out this morning from the Daily Wire has carry Lake up three points. I mean It is just it's shocking to see how much movement is taking place here in the course of the last week or so. The only thing that worries me about Pennsylvania, and I'd love to get your opinion on this, is you have Master Roano, the candidate running for governor, who's behind by like double digits and pulling right now. So how much would that impact Oz, who is within the margin of error at least that's what it looks like in pulling. Conversely, you have a situation in Georgia where Brian camp is up by you know, six seven, you know, I think six in the real clear politics average, who could then pull herschel Walker with him? So so talk about that dynamic and how that could play out in your estimation. Well, it's interesting in terms of the way and uh hopefully remember some of us whenever you worked with us, and when you write a poll, you write it to where the it's the questions are asked and the order the ballot is asked and a Pennsylvania, as you point out, the governor's race is is at the top of the ballot. But I'm less pessimistic about mass Triano, I think than most people are and it is. I know him, I've helped, I've been involved in the race. I wouldn't say I'm directly involved like I usually when I've done a couple of pulls for him along the way. I wish I was more involved because, frankly, I think he is a he is someone who's painted unfairly by the media. He is he's a soldier, a blee, he's a PhDs at least a master's degree. He's a brilliant man, and he's someone, like I said, has been painted unfairly. And I do think he ends up pulling out that race. So I think it'll be close, but I do think he and Oz both win because I believe you're gonna see turnout in the rural areas of Pennsylvania where Governor Wolfe shut down schools and it was a really disastrous for a lot of families that are now dealing with trying to get their kids back up to speed. Uh from educational standpoints, I think you're gonna see people in the rural and suburban areas that would have voted for Shapiro, the Democrat nominee, who are gonna say, you know what, I'm not going to let another Democrat destroy my child's education and vote from Mastrolano instead of that. And I think so I believe Oz and master Anio will actually both end up winning. I don't. I'm not gonna make prediction on who wins up pointing about more right likely it would be Oz. But we've been shocked in those situations before. And as you mentioned, I mean, Brian camp Has has run a great campaign. I would say, stay see Abrams is run the kind of campaign she ran last time. She spends a lot of time complaining about the last election. And you know, she's really the one true election denier in the United States these days, and I think kimp is appointed by you don't hear about that from the media now, You're really don't. And that's what I love about Carry Lakes. There, the Republican nominee who is a former member of the media in Arizona. Every time somebody asked her about being an election doesn't denier, they asked, She asked, when's the last times when I asked Stacy Abrams about that? And of course the answer is never, because they won't. So it is It's really nice to see somebody who is able to turn that around on the media the way that the way that she does. But I do think Kimp wins by double digits. So because of that, I think Hersha Washer wins Um wins as well. And the beauty of Georgia is they changed the way their elections are counted and to some extent and conducted. But you know, the whole thing about oh they made it unfair, that was completely proven false. During the primaries, you had record turnout, and so we're gonna know on election night what happens in Georgia the same way we do in most Republican in states. It seems to be the Democrats that have trouble counting ballots for some reason, but it will be it won't be a situation like class time where we have to wait, uh wait in a more an amount of time to find out who wins. And the other aspects on the Senate race in Georgia that you know, I keep hearing people there are two independents in the race. There's an independent and then there's a social worker policy or social communist political organizer who's on the ballot too, uh And so a lot of people have suggested that it might go to ROTHI and I don't think that will be the case. I think Walker will get above there. Let's take a quick commercial break back with Chris Wilson on the other side. I wanted to ask you, you know, you had mentioned the New York Times poll previously. I think a lot of people have, you know, sort of lost faith and most of our institution, including posters. I know that, you know, because you do a lot of work for for private clients, You're putting an extra leg work that a lot of these public posters are doing. But yeah, I mean, we look at the election. You look at that report from the American Station for Public Opinion Research, and presidential polls were the least accurate, and forty year state polls were or were the least accurate in two decades. I mean, we still have posters doing registered voter surveys right now. So I mean, kind of what's your broader take on some of these public opinion posters and why they seem to keep getting things wrong? You know, at least it's a really important question, and it's one that I struggled to answer because, as you mentioned, you do still have posters political particularly media posters that are doing registered voter sampling. And what that means for anybody of you who is uh, you know, he doesn't follow this stuff as closely as least than I do. It means that what is uh, they're talking to just anyone who's a registered voter, and in some cases they're talking to adults and asking them the registered to vote, which means about of people they talked to are lyine. So the right way to do a poll right now is to build a predictive model and then take that predictive model and to those who are most likely to vote. Now, that is how we do ours. And it is as you say, it's very different. Uh, what we see is very different than what most most media puts out. And it's really there are crimes of comission and crimes of omission. And the question is is what's going on on the press side. Are they trying to create polls that showed the Democrat winning? And I would submit to you is both. Unfortunately, I don't think that anyone could have done a poll in the state of Wisconsin that had Joe Biden up eighteen points the weekend before the election the way the Washington Post did. And you guys can fact checking on this go google it. Washington Post the weekend before the election had Joe Biden up eighteen points. He won by lesson a point. I think it is very difficult for anyone to argue that that had no impact on voters. If you believe that there that the candidate you were supporting is going to lose by double digits, it is likely to have an impact on whether or not you turn out and vote. And so that being the case, I think it is UM it's unfortunate that we have to answer this question because it does create uh, it creates skepticism in our industry, and it creates a situation where you uh, where people just don't take polling seriously anymore. And as you know, that should not be the case because right now we UM, we are very good at predicting what happens for our clients. And in fact, you won't stay working in the political point industry if you tell the candidate they're gonna win and they lose, and just it's pretty fundamentally the case is that you've got to be right on these things. So what has happened? It gets back to your original question, what is happening? The question is I just don't know, because I don't know what they're doing that to make it so wrong that how could you create a situation or a poll that shows Joe Biden when in my eighteen points where wins by less than a point. And that's not the only place that happened, by the way, I'll give you a few other examples. In the Arizona election, the point average at the end and had Kelly winning by six, the only one by two. Uh. In Georgia they had were off by almost ten points. And particularly special election in Iowa, the public polling had the Democrat winning by two and in the average did Johnny Arts won by six. In Maine, the public pollint had get In winning by six uh, collinses and Collins one by nine. And I'll give you one more and I'll shut up about it. The public polling in North Carolina had cunning him winning by four, tell us one by two. So you go through all those different situations and you look at well, how could they be so wrong? And the answer is, I just don't know. But I will say this, when you look at public polling this year that has a close race or has a Democratic by a little bit, if I was betting on the predicted markets, and I don't. I was then on the Republican because there's something going on in public media polling that tradition that just consistently favors the Democrats. And I can tell you our internal polling does not show that, does not do that. It is um. It is meticulous, and its approach to making sure that we are adequately sampling enough enough of every party and that we're actually talking to people who are going to vote. And that's challenging right now because particularly when you look at who's going to vote in an off your election like two, and you look at the enthusiasm numbers twin Republicans and Democrats, if you are doing a sample which is the last off your election, which is what most media polling is probably doing, you are going to oversample Democrats. And that's going to be proved to be as inaccurate today as it was in twenty six and and uh so it's just really it's a problem, I think for the polling community, and as you point out, is constantly um. It is constantly evaluated by the American Associates Public Opinion researchers, but nothing's really ever done about it. I mean I'm jaded. So I personally believe it's intentional bias because we know how much of an impact these polls have and mean, you you you've got you know, don't like you had McConnell pull out of Arizona, right, So, like these guys are looking at the polling and they're making decisions about what races to invest in. An Unfortunately, we could get to a scenario where one of these races it's, you know, we lose by a point or we lose by you know, votes, and what would you know? And if you had originally kept that multimillion dollar investment that email, whatever it was, I forget what it was in Arizona, we maybe we could have won it, right, And so I intentionally think that these posters are trying to paint oblique outbook for Republicans to impact the overall election. It's just that Trump derangement syndrome, that Republican derangement syndrome. That's what that has seeped in to every aspect of our society. But I wanted to get your take on Uh, you know, I'm hearing it's been tough. You know, I think it was like the hidden Trump vote and and you know, Republicans being less inclined to want to answer or pick up talk to these people. How much of a challenge has it been for for you guys and trying to get accurate polls and Republicans maybe being less inclined to identify themselves. You know that's funny about it. Yes, you hear a lot about that. The media complains about it, but we don't find that problem and it is I'm maybe that's because as can you're well aware from working with us for a while, we were meticulous in the building of our stratifications at the beginning of the sample, of building our sample frame. But I will say here is the one place, like on the Young Can polling, most polling had UH hadcall winning. Ours did not. We had young Enough, and we had him up for the last couple of weeks and it wasn't. I don't think there was any polling that came out that had young Enough except for our internals. And I think you were still working with at this point too. In sixteen, as you may remember, our internal polling I did Ted Cruzis polling US presidential campaign. Our internal polling had us winning in Iowa. There was not a single public poll that did it all had that shared that notion. They all had Trump winning and most of them had had Ruby all moving into second place. And you can go to Real Clear Politics average and look at that. When we knew internally we were going to win, And that comes from the way in which we built out our sample based on education. And I think that's one of our biggest lessons from the last few so I goals is, yes, it can be more difficult to interview Republicans without a college degree. It's very easy to get voters who have a college degree on the phone. They're just easier. They don't change phone numbers as much. They're more I could answer and on them cell phone numbers. Just a lot of reasons for that, whereas it does take a lot of interviewing to get those without a college degree. And so I think some of that probably feeds into it. It certainly was the case in Northern Virginia. I mean least, I would look at some polls coming out of Virginia in which they had the sample in Northern Virginia sample in Northern Virginia had a college career greater. Well, that's a higher percentage of the electorate than than has a college degree than in Cambridge, Massachusetts, or Berkeley, California. It was just inaccurate, and I would immediately point that out to the people who sent it to me, like, oh, it's only off my few points, Marge of Vera. No it's not, Marge of Vera. It's like twenty five points off. And if you've got a twenty five point subsample that is a completely different ideological bent than the electorate as a whole. It's only to make the entire survey off by a point or two. And so I think some of that feeds into it. It's just it's maybe some laziness, could be laziness on the part of the phone center that does the interviewing. There's a lot of things that feed into it. But I'll say this to wrap it, to wrap up my comments, there is no way an accurate poll could have been done in Wisconsin the weekend before the presidential election that showed your mind, not by eighteen points. That is a crime of comission. And to your point, it is certainly one that kept people at home, and it most likely had an impact on the present on the election of the president of United States. And I think that's the intention. I really do. I just I think that, you know, we look at the bias in every aspect every institution in America, and I think it's it's got. The posters are more interested in disrupting the election than they are about capturing the election, and I sadly, I think that's where we are today. You know, I wanted to ask you you look at like Democrats. Their closing argument seems to be, we need to abort babies up until the moment of birth in January six? Have we told you about January six? Which seems like a strategic mistake, Chris, when you know you've got families really suffering financially, worried about being able to put food on the table, afford the roof over the head, you know how much of a strategic mistake is their messaging? And it has their messaging been you know, it's um. Yeah, there's no question that they have completely overplayed their hand on abortion. And the problem is is you point out they are. And there's a great article to Washing Examiner today by Kaylee White and which is the title is Democrats will finally being forced to own their abortion extremism. And I think what you've see. One of the reasons why you have seen independent women shift in the way that they have is twofold. One is, of course inflation and the fact that I'll never forget. We did a focus group of independent women in Virginia and there's a woman there was what it was all about, asking not the issue of abortion, and one said, look, you know, I have to buy grocery every day. That's put gas in my car almost every day. I have to pay taxes every day. I don't get an abortion every day. So no, that's not going, in fact my choice for governor. I want to make sure my kids go to school and have a good education. Those are things I worry about every day. And so right now I think you're seeing people make chore. It's kind of a Maslow's hierarchy of issues, if you will, on an from a standpoint of what what is going to impact someone's life on a daily basis. So that's a strategic mistake by Democrats. But the other aspect of the strategic mistake is Democrats are finding out that they are the extremists on the issue of life and for for stins of history, it's um you can look at the eighteen sixty two election, and the Democrat Party in eighteen sixty two made their entire message about Abraham Lincoln, if you reelect, if you send Abraham Lincoln Republican Congress, a Republican Senate, he will free the slaves. That was their entire message in eighteen sixty two. Now, of course they don't own that today, they don't talk about that very much, but that was the what you're seeing today with the way they are treating an issue of life, is the moral equivalent of the Democratic Party in eighteen sixty two, where their entire message was send us back to Congress and we will make sure Abraham Lincoln doesn't free the slaves. And it's like this year, we're saying, send us back to Congress and we will make sure the Republicans don't say babies. It's pretty wild, you know. And you know, and most Americans aren't there. You know, they don't believe in abortion up until the moment of birth. They fully recognize that it's not a clump of sales. As they try to tell us that, you know, it doesn't make sense logically or from a common sense standpoint. You know, when you're looking at you know, you're talking to these volder, these voters, you're doing these focus groups, You're seeing the issues. What are the top issues on Americans minds right now? I know, no inflation, but are there any surprises or is it pretty much what we would think? You know, it really is what you would think. It is. Inflation, is gas prices, is grocery prices? And education the only surprise And it maybe isn't a surprise anymore, because as I mentioned, we really saw this manifest itself in the young and versus mccaulloff election, in which Glenn Yuncan made it very clear that he would not have closed schools, and so he gave and he was able to put to point to the Rhonda Santis is the Kevin Stitz in Oklahoma, to unless your extent to Greg Abbotts and Texas and show the example of states that did not close their schools and didn't fall behind in education. And so what that allowed is is that you know, it's even to take the analogy further. Uh, the night before the election of Canada's Sunday on Monday night, Terry mccauloff campaigned not with Joe Biden, not with Kamala Harris, not even with Barack Obama, but a campaign with Randy Weinarter. And for anyone who doesn't know who that is, she's head of the American Federation Teachers and she is the one probably foremost responsible for the for the shedding schools and the keep and keeping schools closed. And candidly we were high fiving on the campaign. We need it. We need to check this to see if it's an in kind of contribution to our to us. And she continues to campaign on behalf of Democrats. And what that has done is it has made education. It has gone from an issue that Democrats led by about twenty points on just a couple of cycles ago, that were two Republicans leading on it. So on the key issues facing America today, inflation, Republicans lead on gas prices, Republicans lead on homeownership, Republicans lead on the economy, and general Republicans lead, but education Republicans now lead. And in the most recent poll polling that we're getting the highest I have seen abortion on a list of most important issues is seventh in the last week seventh and Lisa, I have not seen January six mentioned in the verbatives on the survey much less as the most important issue probably since about Midsummer. So that tells you, as you mentioned at the beginning, what Democrats are closing on is taxpayer funded abortion at any age through the ninth through the ninth month and the canal and oh yeah, January six. That's not a winning message for them, and it's really I think they're going to pay the price for it again in a couple of weeks quick break more. In the mid terms, we were being told with a straight face by the media that Democrats could somehow outrun an incredibly unpopular president, when mid terms are always a referendum on the party in charge of the president in charge. But yet they sat there with a straight face trying to tell us that things were happening that we're not talk about that. Well, I think the key thing, I think the part there that I'll be critical of our party in this situation, unless with the media, because we've spent so much time beating them up. I do think there are some campaigns that didn't do a great job for a while tying their opponents to Joe Biden. So I remember I was actually given a talk at Freedom Works a few weeks ago and John McLoughlin was a very talented poster, a good friend, and he was actually the polster on the campaign that I man Inch did in nineteen ninety four, a long time ago. Right, it was David McIntosh who's now head of the Club for Growth. I ran his campaign for Congress. And John pointed out I was in the audience, had spoken just before him. He said, you know, at this point in nine Chris was already morphing. Joe Hogs said, who was our opponent at the time. He's now mayor of Indianapolis, points stilling or interesting into Bill Clinton's face. So why are Republicans doing that? And I thought, you know, that's a great that's a really important point. So I want to give John credit for it. And I think there were a lot of Republican campaigns that were running talking about the issues, which is good. But let's face it, whenever you are running astkinstan Comming in most of these situations, we were trying to beat incumbents. You take more Kelly versus Blake Masters Mark Kelly. They voters need to be told why they should fire him, and they should fire him because he's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. They should fire Katherine Cortez Masco because she's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. They should fire her off from the war on because she he is a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. And I think a lot of campaigns were running on issues are running on, spent a little bit too much time telling the story as to why they should be elected instead of talking there about their opponents. And there's probably a lot of altruistic sort of people who listening to your podcast who are like, well, I believe in that. I believe we should give people a reason to vote for us, And yes, we absolutely should, but we need to do it and move on. Because if you want to get a job and somebody else, sorry has that job, that person has to be fired before you can hire be hired. That's just a basic tenant of the way political campaigns work and the way people's decision ranking process goes. So it is. I think that was kind of a situation where maybe a few too many campaigns waited a little bit too long to begin tying their opponent to Biden, and the media probably did a good job head faked us out of that and saying, oh, it's a people are separating, so some Biden it's uh, they can still win. So people bought into that. Candidates brought into that. Campaigns one of that Okay, let me go give people a reason as to why they should vote for me. Well, okay, you've done it. Move on. These last two weeks. Any campaign that's spending a single dollar not mentioning tying their opponent to Joe Biden is wasting that dollars. That makes a lot of sense. And I also just kind of a thought popped in my thought bubble popped in my head when you're talking about Biden, because I don't know if you saw herschel Walker or with NBC and they asked him if there's any common ground he could find with Biden. He's like, well you likes ice cream. That's actually really good line. Yeah. I know, maybe it made me laugh because I thought that was just like funny, you know, and it kind of you know, ribbing him, but in a you know, in a likable way. Um. You know, I know you're a busy guy. You're you're working on races around the country. You probably aren't sleeping right now. What should people before we go you know, Chris, what should people be looking for in pulling and the dynamics of these races as we head into these mid term sprint? You know, we see you man the most important one. The pole comes out. First of all, check the sample. Are they talking to registried voters? If so, don't need pay attention. Are they talking to adults? If so, throw it away and never read the publication again. If they're talking to likely voters, pay attention. But the other thing you want to look at is whether whether or not that likely voter universe looks like a eighteen sample and now I know I'm getting really deep into it, or if it looks like a ten or twenty ten sample, because two out here it is that's the sleep thing. Uh is gonna look a lot more like en than it is gonna look like ten. So that's number one. I think the second thing I would do is take it with a grain of salt. If a pole has a democrat up even double, did you think about what you think about some of the examples. I gave a little bit ago where I talked about Greenfield in Ohio being up by two and or its winning by seven. When I talked about getting and being up by six and Collins winning by nine. When I talked about Cunningham being up by four, until it's winning by two or even in South Carolina where Lindsey Graham, most of the poles at the end had him down or in a dead heat, he won by ten. So don't know, just because a pole has a Democrat up by a point or two doesn't mean that they're going to win. In fact, most likely at that level, it probably means the Republicans going to win. So when you see a poll come out and a couple of them I saw come out this morning out of Pennsylvania that has a Federment up over Oz by two, you might want to take read into that that Oust is probably gonna win. When you see one come out like came out yesterday out of Georgia that had uh Warnock and Walker in a tie, and then that probably means the lockers up, particularly it has Camp up six. So it's I really get skeptical whenever I see the public polling that has Democrats up, and I look at the ones where I am involved in center races I'm doing. Um, I've mentioned las All a few times. Um he is up he's he is awesome. He's been up in seventh straight polls, and I'll tell you he's he's most likely to win that race. I'll tell you Eric Eric Schmidt in Missouri, who I'm working with, I mean that he's gonna win that thing going away. Republicans are going to have a very good year, and I think if any pulling that doesn't reflect that, I would be suspective immediately. Good to know, Chris Wilson. You're busy man. I appreciate you taking the time. I know this is a really important election, so we appreciate your insight. Thanks so much, Chris. Happy to do it, Lisa, great catch up. That was Chris Wilson. I used to work for him. He's a really really solid poster. He does great work. And more than solid, he's does great work. Uh. It takes a lot of pride in getting things right with w p A Intelligence. He's the founder and CEO, been in the game for a long time, so you know, it just goes to show you how much we're led to by all these people, right, you know, And that's the whole point of this podcast is trying to identify people like him who can really get to the bottom of what's happening, which you're you're not going to get swere in the media, right, You're not gonna get it when you turn on TV and they're still doing register voter surveys or they're talking to the same people who have gotten every single thing wrong for forever, right, but you know, so hopefully we'll learned a lot from that. Appreciate you guys listening to the show. I want to thank John Cassie On, my producer, for putting it together every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week. Feel free to leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, give us a rating, share with your friends, your family. Appreciate you guys listening. Until next time.