Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on fo car Playing and broyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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US payrolls marked down by most since two thousand and nine in preliminary data.

US payrolls marked down by most since two thousand and nine in preliminary data.

It sounds important to me.

It sounds important to me.

Let's go to Ira Jersey. He's the bond guy. He covers yours an interest rate strategy for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's down and oh, I'm going to guess Princeton, New New Jersey. Why come to the world's financial market? God forbid?

Let's go to Ira Jersey. He's the bond guy. He covers yours an interest rate strategy for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's down and oh, I'm going to guess Princeton, New New Jersey. Why come to the world's financial market? God forbid?

Hira.

Hira.

Thanks so much for joining us. You're the expert on this stuff. I love to talk to you about this US payroll data and about Jackson Hole. How are you kind of writing about this in your bi research.

Thanks so much for joining us. You're the expert on this stuff. I love to talk to you about this US payroll data and about Jackson Hole. How are you kind of writing about this in your bi research.

Yeah, the data I think Paul is was more or less what a lot of people that expect, did you know.

Yeah, the data I think Paul is was more or less what a lot of people that expect, did you know.

Kudos to our colleagues.

Kudos to our colleagues.

Over at Bloomberg Economics who saw a number very similar to this negative eight hundred and eighteen thousand for the revisions.

Over at Bloomberg Economics who saw a number very similar to this negative eight hundred and eighteen thousand for the revisions.

Keep in mind this is old, this is going to be revised.

Keep in mind this is old, this is going to be revised.

Again, and also it's not information that's new, right, So if we think about all that this means is that, yes, the data was weaker in the economy was weaker between April of twenty twenty three and March of twenty twenty four.

Again, and also it's not information that's new, right, So if we think about all that this means is that, yes, the data was weaker in the economy was weaker between April of twenty twenty three and March of twenty twenty four.

That doesn't necessarily tell us.

That doesn't necessarily tell us.

Where we are now or where we're going over the next couple of a couple of quarters, but it does show that maybe things weren't quite as rosy as the preliminary data suggested.

Where we are now or where we're going over the next couple of a couple of quarters, but it does show that maybe things weren't quite as rosy as the preliminary data suggested.

And Hira, I'm glad you brought that up because Paul and I were talking about a story I wrote ahead of that data, and it was just to that point where options traders weren't pricing at a big swing because they really saw this as backward looking, as basically a non event for the stock market when we're seeing the S and P five hundred still higher this morning. But when it comes to the bond side of things, that you focus on, what is speculative positioning telling us in the bond market? Ahead of speaking at Jackson Hole on Friday.

And Hira, I'm glad you brought that up because Paul and I were talking about a story I wrote ahead of that data, and it was just to that point where options traders weren't pricing at a big swing because they really saw this as backward looking, as basically a non event for the stock market when we're seeing the S and P five hundred still higher this morning. But when it comes to the bond side of things, that you focus on, what is speculative positioning telling us in the bond market? Ahead of speaking at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Yeah, I don't think the positioning.

Yeah, I don't think the positioning.

The position really hasn't changed a whole ton over the last couple of months, and you know, speculators are still relatively you know, less short than they used to be, but there's still generally short rates. But that's because you know, real money investors are long, right, So for every long there's a short in futures positioning, so you have to keep that in mind. And a lot of those shorts are going to be against other things, right, so people are long credit or people who are trying to del to hedge options positions for example, So all of those things go into some of that futures positioning.

The position really hasn't changed a whole ton over the last couple of months, and you know, speculators are still relatively you know, less short than they used to be, but there's still generally short rates. But that's because you know, real money investors are long, right, So for every long there's a short in futures positioning, so you have to keep that in mind. And a lot of those shorts are going to be against other things, right, so people are long credit or people who are trying to del to hedge options positions for example, So all of those things go into some of that futures positioning.

So you can't take as.

So you can't take as.

Much away from that one data set as you can from say, just the incoming data that we get, you know, in terms of Jackson Hole, you know, I think that one thing that this data that we received just a couple of minutes ago does suggest is that that the FED is more ammunition to cut interest rates. You know, people who are worried about them cutting twenty five or fifty, you know, the market kind of is now back in in terms of the first cut being maybe twenty five basis points, but this does give them some ammunition because they can say, oh, well, you know the economy is not as strong as we had thought, and because of that, you know, that gives us at least a little bit of comfort in the fact that we can slowly start to reduce the amount of monetary tightening that we've done.

Much away from that one data set as you can from say, just the incoming data that we get, you know, in terms of Jackson Hole, you know, I think that one thing that this data that we received just a couple of minutes ago does suggest is that that the FED is more ammunition to cut interest rates. You know, people who are worried about them cutting twenty five or fifty, you know, the market kind of is now back in in terms of the first cut being maybe twenty five basis points, but this does give them some ammunition because they can say, oh, well, you know the economy is not as strong as we had thought, and because of that, you know, that gives us at least a little bit of comfort in the fact that we can slowly start to reduce the amount of monetary tightening that we've done.

All right, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Is it better for Truman J. Powe to just keep it short and sweet and just let things keep moving.

All right, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Is it better for Truman J. Powe to just keep it short and sweet and just let things keep moving.

Well, you know, it's yeah, that's that's a good question. You know, we get the minutes today at two o'clock, so I think that he's going to stick to almost whatever is said in the minutes.

Well, you know, it's yeah, that's that's a good question. You know, we get the minutes today at two o'clock, so I think that he's going to stick to almost whatever is said in the minutes.

So I think it's gonna be very important to kind.

So I think it's gonna be very important to kind.

Of read what a majority or most of the members of the Federal Reserve had said at the last meeting. But he I suspect that he is going to hint that the Federal Reserve is on a path the cutting interest rates. But he's going to remain and I think if you recall from his post meeting press conference, he still said like, look, you know, we haven't made any decisions.

Of read what a majority or most of the members of the Federal Reserve had said at the last meeting. But he I suspect that he is going to hint that the Federal Reserve is on a path the cutting interest rates. But he's going to remain and I think if you recall from his post meeting press conference, he still said like, look, you know, we haven't made any decisions.

We're doing everything. But we're doing everything meeting to meeting.

We're doing everything. But we're doing everything meeting to meeting.

But when you look at a preponderance of the data, I know, the retail sales data last week was pretty decent, but a lot of the other data that we're getting is mixed to somewhat lower, and certainly today's employment data suggests that that, you know, things aren't as rosy as we had thought. And because of that, I think that he's going to hint that a cut is on the tape.

But when you look at a preponderance of the data, I know, the retail sales data last week was pretty decent, but a lot of the other data that we're getting is mixed to somewhat lower, and certainly today's employment data suggests that that, you know, things aren't as rosy as we had thought. And because of that, I think that he's going to hint that a cut is on the tape.

Looking at the ten year treasury yield, creating just below three eighty what's the key levels when you're looking at the ten year or the two year right now?

Looking at the ten year treasury yield, creating just below three eighty what's the key levels when you're looking at the ten year or the two year right now?

Yeah, so three seventy eight, so not too far from where we are right now is a reasonably important technical level on the ten year yield, and below that you're talking about somewhere in the three sixties kind of area. Three sixty four I think is the next big level. Interestingly, we've kind of over the last couple of weeks since I left on holiday, we've been in a more or lesser range. And because of that range, you've seen momentum indicators suggests that maybe we're going to stay in that range until we got something, you know, big that's gonna knock us out.

Yeah, so three seventy eight, so not too far from where we are right now is a reasonably important technical level on the ten year yield, and below that you're talking about somewhere in the three sixties kind of area. Three sixty four I think is the next big level. Interestingly, we've kind of over the last couple of weeks since I left on holiday, we've been in a more or lesser range. And because of that range, you've seen momentum indicators suggests that maybe we're going to stay in that range until we got something, you know, big that's gonna knock us out.

It all right, Ira, thanks so much for joining us our Jersey. He's a chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

It all right, Ira, thanks so much for joining us our Jersey. He's a chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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I tell you one of the stocks today again really jumps out at you is Target. Our friends at Tarje put up a solid quarter here and the market loves it. Stocks up thirteen percent, which again for a retailer, that's right size to have that kind of a move in a stock really kind of jumps out at you.

I tell you one of the stocks today again really jumps out at you is Target. Our friends at Tarje put up a solid quarter here and the market loves it. Stocks up thirteen percent, which again for a retailer, that's right size to have that kind of a move in a stock really kind of jumps out at you.

And another one I'd point out too TJX YEP up five percent, trading at an all time high, also on the back of strong results.

And another one I'd point out too TJX YEP up five percent, trading at an all time high, also on the back of strong results.

Let's check in with an expert on this stuff, Jen Bartasha. She's Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst. She covers all that retail stuff. I'm not really sure what's going on there, but she's the expert. So Jen, talk to us about Target. What are they doing right there?

Let's check in with an expert on this stuff, Jen Bartasha. She's Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst. She covers all that retail stuff. I'm not really sure what's going on there, but she's the expert. So Jen, talk to us about Target. What are they doing right there?

Good morning, thanks for having me. And with Target, what we're really seeing is that they sort of reaffirmed their strategy around creating newness reducing prices and enhancing the value perception they have with customers. And this second quarter results, we really see that that is starting to resonate, especially because they're seeing traffic going back into stores as well as online. So really, you know, positive early signs from Target that this momentum might be able to continue.

Good morning, thanks for having me. And with Target, what we're really seeing is that they sort of reaffirmed their strategy around creating newness reducing prices and enhancing the value perception they have with customers. And this second quarter results, we really see that that is starting to resonate, especially because they're seeing traffic going back into stores as well as online. So really, you know, positive early signs from Target that this momentum might be able to continue.

What about when it comes to consumer package good companies, because you and I have talked in the past, and we know that Richmond FED President Tom Barkin watches a price to mix very closely, and that's a lot of the data that you crunch over at Bloomberg Intelligence as far as what that means for inflation and also the direction potentially for FED policy. What are you seeing on there as we begin to get more consumer package good companies reporting as well.

What about when it comes to consumer package good companies, because you and I have talked in the past, and we know that Richmond FED President Tom Barkin watches a price to mix very closely, and that's a lot of the data that you crunch over at Bloomberg Intelligence as far as what that means for inflation and also the direction potentially for FED policy. What are you seeing on there as we begin to get more consumer package good companies reporting as well.

Well. What we're seeing is obviously there's political pressure with a lot of rhetoric going on right now about the need to lower prices. We're seeing retailers like Walmart, like Target, like Krger, like Albertson's pushing back on package food companies. Who are you know, in some instances still looking to push through some selective price increases. So there is that tension that's happening kind of behind the scenes, but overall, we are seeing prices on the shelf starting to come down, and that spells relief for consumers. It's just a matter of how long it takes for them to actually recognize it and appreciate it and reward it with higher volumes that they're buying.

Well. What we're seeing is obviously there's political pressure with a lot of rhetoric going on right now about the need to lower prices. We're seeing retailers like Walmart, like Target, like Krger, like Albertson's pushing back on package food companies. Who are you know, in some instances still looking to push through some selective price increases. So there is that tension that's happening kind of behind the scenes, but overall, we are seeing prices on the shelf starting to come down, and that spells relief for consumers. It's just a matter of how long it takes for them to actually recognize it and appreciate it and reward it with higher volumes that they're buying.

What is or I.

What is or I.

Guess, what's Target saying about the consumer? What are the other retailers that you talk to, Jenny, you follow, what are they saying about the consumer today? Because I'm I think as investors we kind of feel like we're getting mixed messages about the consumer.

Guess, what's Target saying about the consumer? What are the other retailers that you talk to, Jenny, you follow, what are they saying about the consumer today? Because I'm I think as investors we kind of feel like we're getting mixed messages about the consumer.

Yeah, I think when you're talking about the staple space, which is you know where these companies that I follow fall, it's that the consumer is not getting worse, they're not necessarily getting better, but they're sort of holding study. And you know, part of that is that we've had some consumers you kind of trade down into those middle tier stores or even to some of the discount stores in order to save a little bit of money. So the companies in this space are pretty well positioned because they do well no matter what the economic circumstances are, and I think that's showing through with the results. But they're saying, you know, consumers are spending, but it's still very thoughtfully and so the things that will attract them to spending is your merchandise mix, your newness, your convenience, the quality things that will then tempt them into into spending the dollars that they're managing very carefully.

Yeah, I think when you're talking about the staple space, which is you know where these companies that I follow fall, it's that the consumer is not getting worse, they're not necessarily getting better, but they're sort of holding study. And you know, part of that is that we've had some consumers you kind of trade down into those middle tier stores or even to some of the discount stores in order to save a little bit of money. So the companies in this space are pretty well positioned because they do well no matter what the economic circumstances are, and I think that's showing through with the results. But they're saying, you know, consumers are spending, but it's still very thoughtfully and so the things that will attract them to spending is your merchandise mix, your newness, your convenience, the quality things that will then tempt them into into spending the dollars that they're managing very carefully.

We only have about a minute left here, but you've talked a lot about how you're expecting more consumer packaged good companies to roll out promotions in the second half of the year, like buy one, get one free, buy one, get one fifty percent off. What are you seeing so far with that as far as what companies are saying on these earnings calls.

We only have about a minute left here, but you've talked a lot about how you're expecting more consumer packaged good companies to roll out promotions in the second half of the year, like buy one, get one free, buy one, get one fifty percent off. What are you seeing so far with that as far as what companies are saying on these earnings calls.

Yeah, promotions have definitely accelerated, and we are back at sort of the levels that we were at before the pandemic. What's interesting is most of these companies say that they're able to be more precise so that it's not just a blanket offer like you used to see on the front of an insert or a mailer, but they're sort of targeting promotions to customers based on what they buy, so they're able to preserve a little bit of profitability and still offer higher discounts and so I think that's a pattern that we're expecting to continue through the second half and probably into twenty twenty five as well.

Yeah, promotions have definitely accelerated, and we are back at sort of the levels that we were at before the pandemic. What's interesting is most of these companies say that they're able to be more precise so that it's not just a blanket offer like you used to see on the front of an insert or a mailer, but they're sort of targeting promotions to customers based on what they buy, so they're able to preserve a little bit of profitability and still offer higher discounts and so I think that's a pattern that we're expecting to continue through the second half and probably into twenty twenty five as well.

A Jen, thanks so much for joining us, as I always really appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Jen Bartashis, she's a senior analyst of Bloomberg Intelligence covering all the retail space, one of the real leaders on Wall Street providing research analysis on.

A Jen, thanks so much for joining us, as I always really appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Jen Bartashis, she's a senior analyst of Bloomberg Intelligence covering all the retail space, one of the real leaders on Wall Street providing research analysis on.

The retail space.

The retail space.

Talking about Tarje Today.

Talking about Tarje Today.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and Broud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and Broud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Jess Meant sitting in for Alex Deale on Paul Sweeney. You're live here in the Bloomberg Interact Broker Studio, streaming live on YouTube as well. Jess, you know someplace I really want to go that is way off the beaten trail, and I probably couldn't even get anybody to go with me.

Jess Meant sitting in for Alex Deale on Paul Sweeney. You're live here in the Bloomberg Interact Broker Studio, streaming live on YouTube as well. Jess, you know someplace I really want to go that is way off the beaten trail, and I probably couldn't even get anybody to go with me.

Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Oh, I think very very cool, and he's finding people from there, little Bloomberg Intelligence trip.

Oh, I think very very cool, and he's finding people from there, little Bloomberg Intelligence trip.

Think so, But now I think I might have a reason. Our next guest is from Santa Fe, so we'll go out and visited our good friends at Thornberg Investment Management, Emily Level, she's a portfolio manager. How she ever got to Santa Fe, New Mexico. I'm sure there's a story there, Emily. Thanks so much for joining us from Santa Fe, New Mexico. What do you make in of this market here, Emily? I mean, boy, we started two weeks ago Monday, a crazy, crazy day, a big sell off of the market. Maybe some panic in the market, I guess, but boy, we seem to have found our sea legs since then, What do you make of this market?

Think so, But now I think I might have a reason. Our next guest is from Santa Fe, so we'll go out and visited our good friends at Thornberg Investment Management, Emily Level, she's a portfolio manager. How she ever got to Santa Fe, New Mexico. I'm sure there's a story there, Emily. Thanks so much for joining us from Santa Fe, New Mexico. What do you make in of this market here, Emily? I mean, boy, we started two weeks ago Monday, a crazy, crazy day, a big sell off of the market. Maybe some panic in the market, I guess, but boy, we seem to have found our sea legs since then, What do you make of this market?

It's it's been really interesting, hasn't it. I mean, yeah, two two and a half weeks ago, it felt like the bottom was falling out, and you know, we've really seen a recovery in the strength of the market in the last couple weeks in return of that momentum factor, you know, which I think is a really important indicator of you know, where the market goes from here, and and some pretty decent data as well. I mean, I remember part of that weakness was some of the data that came out, and then since then we've had, you know, pretty decent data on retail figures, some better data on jobs numbers, and I think now everyone's looking ahead to the FED and then obviously what's going to happen in September, and I think it's just really going to be data dependent from here.

It's it's been really interesting, hasn't it. I mean, yeah, two two and a half weeks ago, it felt like the bottom was falling out, and you know, we've really seen a recovery in the strength of the market in the last couple weeks in return of that momentum factor, you know, which I think is a really important indicator of you know, where the market goes from here, and and some pretty decent data as well. I mean, I remember part of that weakness was some of the data that came out, and then since then we've had, you know, pretty decent data on retail figures, some better data on jobs numbers, and I think now everyone's looking ahead to the FED and then obviously what's going to happen in September, and I think it's just really going to be data dependent from here.

And we were just talking about Emily how some of that BLS data on the annual revisions through the year into through March were delayed. But if you look at this, US employment rose about one point three percent in the year through March of this year, BLS is saying as well. And then also I was looking at Goldman Sachs was talking about how the release so far points to a downward revision in the realm of about seventy thousand jobs per month. So waiting for that full release here, but wanted to pick your brain because this is obviously backward looking type data. Also Goldman Sacks, their economic desk, was pointing out how when it comes to because they're looking at wages and claims data, so it won't include undocumented workers. So there's about potentially up to a million of them that wouldn't be included in this data. So when there's a lot of jitters about say the July slowdown in payrolls, which is obviously just one month of data. We haven't seen a trend yet, and looking at how the market's reacting s and P five hundred is still hired, it seems like options market wasn't really pricing in a big move here. So what's your kind of view here when you're looking at obviously more backward looking data and does really shape anything? And how much does it really tell us about the labor market?

And we were just talking about Emily how some of that BLS data on the annual revisions through the year into through March were delayed. But if you look at this, US employment rose about one point three percent in the year through March of this year, BLS is saying as well. And then also I was looking at Goldman Sachs was talking about how the release so far points to a downward revision in the realm of about seventy thousand jobs per month. So waiting for that full release here, but wanted to pick your brain because this is obviously backward looking type data. Also Goldman Sacks, their economic desk, was pointing out how when it comes to because they're looking at wages and claims data, so it won't include undocumented workers. So there's about potentially up to a million of them that wouldn't be included in this data. So when there's a lot of jitters about say the July slowdown in payrolls, which is obviously just one month of data. We haven't seen a trend yet, and looking at how the market's reacting s and P five hundred is still hired, it seems like options market wasn't really pricing in a big move here. So what's your kind of view here when you're looking at obviously more backward looking data and does really shape anything? And how much does it really tell us about the labor market?

Well, I think, you know, from memory, seventy thousand a monthly revision of about seventy thousand jobs is a little bit on the lower end of or sorry, on the higher end of what the market was expecting. I had in my mind something between thirty and fifty thousand, you know, based on some of the estimates from the cell side. So a little bit weaker, I think, and you know, probably one of the larger revisions we've had in the last decade. So, you know, we definitely think that we're in the later stages of an economic slowdown. I think this data probably confirms that, you know, we're seeing employment growth slow in the US. I think that's normal considering the big moves in rates that we've had over the last two and a half years. I think it's unrealistic that you go from zero percent to five and a half percent rates without any changes in the labor market and you know, sort of aggregate demand figures. So I think it's reasonable. I think we're in the later stages of a cycle. We see that in some of the mixed consumer data that's coming out as well. I don't know that it's going to change anything about, you know, how the FED acts. I think they have to thread this needle between you know, being proactive and data dependent but not seeming to panic. And so I think it probably you know, we still get twenty five basis points of cuts in September. Probably we get a couple more through the end of the year. But I don't know that this data really changes dramatically what Powell is going to say on Friday.

Well, I think, you know, from memory, seventy thousand a monthly revision of about seventy thousand jobs is a little bit on the lower end of or sorry, on the higher end of what the market was expecting. I had in my mind something between thirty and fifty thousand, you know, based on some of the estimates from the cell side. So a little bit weaker, I think, and you know, probably one of the larger revisions we've had in the last decade. So, you know, we definitely think that we're in the later stages of an economic slowdown. I think this data probably confirms that, you know, we're seeing employment growth slow in the US. I think that's normal considering the big moves in rates that we've had over the last two and a half years. I think it's unrealistic that you go from zero percent to five and a half percent rates without any changes in the labor market and you know, sort of aggregate demand figures. So I think it's reasonable. I think we're in the later stages of a cycle. We see that in some of the mixed consumer data that's coming out as well. I don't know that it's going to change anything about, you know, how the FED acts. I think they have to thread this needle between you know, being proactive and data dependent but not seeming to panic. And so I think it probably you know, we still get twenty five basis points of cuts in September. Probably we get a couple more through the end of the year. But I don't know that this data really changes dramatically what Powell is going to say on Friday.

Emily, you are the portfolio manager of the Thornburg International Growth Fund. Where do you guys erect internationally? Where do you see opportunities outside of Santa.

Emily, you are the portfolio manager of the Thornburg International Growth Fund. Where do you guys erect internationally? Where do you see opportunities outside of Santa.

Fe Well, well, it's so introgused. You say that we're almost international here. We used to be part of Mexico, but one of the things that that we've noticed in the selloff is, you know, while the SMP is just a touch off of all time highs, international markets haven't recovered quite as significantly from the selloffs. So the Nike, you know, still off about ten percent from its all time highs. Some of the markets in Europe as well, and as growth investors were really focused on finding the opportunities that are going to be able to grow earning's power throughout an economic cycle. So we actually see some pretty interesting opportunities that have been provided to us by the recent volatility. So we still like the AI theme. We get a ton of exposure and high quality businesses that are key to this infrastructure build out outside of the United States, so companies like ASML in the Netherlands, like Disco in Japan, there are a number of these semi cop TSMC as well in Taiwan. You know, these semiconductor and semicap equipment companies are core to this build out. Another area that we really like and where we see some strong long term winners in international markets is in the healthcare space. So we have Novo Nordisk, we have Astrozenica. You know, these are really best in class high quality businesses that are now trading you know, well off their their all time highs, particularly in the tech space. And then the other thing that's kind of interesting about what's what we've seen in the last few weeks with you know, the recent moves and the pricing and at the FED cut is a weakening of the US dollar. And what we like to tell our clients, especially as international investors, as you know, you really might want to think about diversification outside of the US. The MAG seven has dominated, obviously, you know, in everybody's minds, and MAG seven's up thirty eight forty percent year to date. But we've got companies outside of the US investors diversification that are up even more than the MAG seven this year. We affectionately dub two companies in Latin America New and Melli the MAG two of Latin America, and they're up a combined fifty one percent in US dollar terms here today.

Fe Well, well, it's so introgused. You say that we're almost international here. We used to be part of Mexico, but one of the things that that we've noticed in the selloff is, you know, while the SMP is just a touch off of all time highs, international markets haven't recovered quite as significantly from the selloffs. So the Nike, you know, still off about ten percent from its all time highs. Some of the markets in Europe as well, and as growth investors were really focused on finding the opportunities that are going to be able to grow earning's power throughout an economic cycle. So we actually see some pretty interesting opportunities that have been provided to us by the recent volatility. So we still like the AI theme. We get a ton of exposure and high quality businesses that are key to this infrastructure build out outside of the United States, so companies like ASML in the Netherlands, like Disco in Japan, there are a number of these semi cop TSMC as well in Taiwan. You know, these semiconductor and semicap equipment companies are core to this build out. Another area that we really like and where we see some strong long term winners in international markets is in the healthcare space. So we have Novo Nordisk, we have Astrozenica. You know, these are really best in class high quality businesses that are now trading you know, well off their their all time highs, particularly in the tech space. And then the other thing that's kind of interesting about what's what we've seen in the last few weeks with you know, the recent moves and the pricing and at the FED cut is a weakening of the US dollar. And what we like to tell our clients, especially as international investors, as you know, you really might want to think about diversification outside of the US. The MAG seven has dominated, obviously, you know, in everybody's minds, and MAG seven's up thirty eight forty percent year to date. But we've got companies outside of the US investors diversification that are up even more than the MAG seven this year. We affectionately dub two companies in Latin America New and Melli the MAG two of Latin America, and they're up a combined fifty one percent in US dollar terms here today.

And you were mentioning the s and P five hundred being a whisker away from that all time high if you look great right now, Paul, the SMP's about nine tenths of away from that July sixteenth closing high after falling as much as eight and a half percent after that drawdown, and we sell earlier this month. Suddenly I'm curious because I know you were mentioning how you were managing this growth fund. What are you advising clients to buy? What are you basically suggesting them to sell after we saw such a big drawdown but then a huge bounce back.

And you were mentioning the s and P five hundred being a whisker away from that all time high if you look great right now, Paul, the SMP's about nine tenths of away from that July sixteenth closing high after falling as much as eight and a half percent after that drawdown, and we sell earlier this month. Suddenly I'm curious because I know you were mentioning how you were managing this growth fund. What are you advising clients to buy? What are you basically suggesting them to sell after we saw such a big drawdown but then a huge bounce back.

Yeah, you know, it's been it's been a wild ride. As as we were commenting at the beginning of the show, we really focus on building a diversified portfolio. So we talk about, you know, diversifying those sources of growth, and definitely what we're looking for right now are what are the businesses that can grow earning's power regardless of what's happening with GDP. So we talked a little bit about AI and that copex build out. We think that's going to be pretty resilient and insulated, not totally immune, but pretty insulated from you know, what's going on in the broader macroeconomy. We also think healthcare and some specific areas of healthcare. So you know, we're big holders of Nobonordisk. We think GLP ones have a tremendous runway for growth. There are almost a billion people suffering from obesity today, and when you look at the number of people that have been treated by GLP ones for obesity at this point, we're in the tens of millions. So you know that's going to grow. That demand is going to grow regardless of GDP. Another area that we really like within healthcare is ocular health cataract surgery. A company Alcon that just reported yesterday. You know, they're the leaders in cataract surgery and contact lenses globally, and again, demand for cataract surgery that just grows with an aging population. So inasmuch as investors can get diversification of growth and earnings power that is dependent not on on GDP, we think that that is sort of a wise area to be focusing on at all times, but particularly now when you know there's a lot of mixed messages. I mean, we were talking earlier about the consumer in the United States. You've had pretty mixed data from companies in the consumer space in general, I think pointing to a consumer trading down looking for value for money, and so you know, we're really being cautious in the consumer space and focusing on those areas of growth where we find businesses that can continue to go their earnings power through a cycle.

Yeah, you know, it's been it's been a wild ride. As as we were commenting at the beginning of the show, we really focus on building a diversified portfolio. So we talk about, you know, diversifying those sources of growth, and definitely what we're looking for right now are what are the businesses that can grow earning's power regardless of what's happening with GDP. So we talked a little bit about AI and that copex build out. We think that's going to be pretty resilient and insulated, not totally immune, but pretty insulated from you know, what's going on in the broader macroeconomy. We also think healthcare and some specific areas of healthcare. So you know, we're big holders of Nobonordisk. We think GLP ones have a tremendous runway for growth. There are almost a billion people suffering from obesity today, and when you look at the number of people that have been treated by GLP ones for obesity at this point, we're in the tens of millions. So you know that's going to grow. That demand is going to grow regardless of GDP. Another area that we really like within healthcare is ocular health cataract surgery. A company Alcon that just reported yesterday. You know, they're the leaders in cataract surgery and contact lenses globally, and again, demand for cataract surgery that just grows with an aging population. So inasmuch as investors can get diversification of growth and earnings power that is dependent not on on GDP, we think that that is sort of a wise area to be focusing on at all times, but particularly now when you know there's a lot of mixed messages. I mean, we were talking earlier about the consumer in the United States. You've had pretty mixed data from companies in the consumer space in general, I think pointing to a consumer trading down looking for value for money, and so you know, we're really being cautious in the consumer space and focusing on those areas of growth where we find businesses that can continue to go their earnings power through a cycle.

Hey, Emily, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting your thoughts this morning.

Hey, Emily, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting your thoughts this morning.

Emily Levelle.

Emily Levelle.

She's a portfolio manager Thornburg Investment Management, joining us from Santa Fe, New Mexico.

She's a portfolio manager Thornburg Investment Management, joining us from Santa Fe, New Mexico.

I'm putting that on the bucket list. I'm going there, let's do it. I'm going to add, really, it looks cool. I was while you were talking to Emily.

I'm putting that on the bucket list. I'm going there, let's do it. I'm going to add, really, it looks cool. I was while you were talking to Emily.

I was googling all through about Santa Fe, New Mexic what, not paying attention at all.

I was googling all through about Santa Fe, New Mexic what, not paying attention at all.

It looks very very cool out there in the desert. It's got a big arts community and so on.

It looks very very cool out there in the desert. It's got a big arts community and so on.

But wait till it gets a little bit cooler.

But wait till it gets a little bit cooler.

Maybe yes, because it is in the middle of the desert, it seems like a pretty cool place to be. And I don't know any money management firms out there other than Thornburg Investment Management. I know there probably are, but that's the reason enough itself to go check it out.

Maybe yes, because it is in the middle of the desert, it seems like a pretty cool place to be. And I don't know any money management firms out there other than Thornburg Investment Management. I know there probably are, but that's the reason enough itself to go check it out.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Let's get back to those earnings coming out of the retailers, Macy's, TJX, Tarja, a whole bunch of stuff coming out there.

Let's get back to those earnings coming out of the retailers, Macy's, TJX, Tarja, a whole bunch of stuff coming out there.

Mary Ross Gilbert she joined us.

Mary Ross Gilbert she joined us.

She's a senior analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence covering retail. She's based in Los Angeles. So Mary's let's start with Macy's here. It just seems like, you know, maybe one or two steps forward, one step back. What'd you take away from Macy's earnings here?

She's a senior analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence covering retail. She's based in Los Angeles. So Mary's let's start with Macy's here. It just seems like, you know, maybe one or two steps forward, one step back. What'd you take away from Macy's earnings here?

Yeah, So, as with any turnaround, and here we are in another iteration of trying to get growth back for this. It's the largest department store, Macy's. They did show traction in the first fifty stores. The comps were up one percent, and that was an improvement from the first quarter, which was up just less than one percent. But the fact is that the rest of the go forward stores were down three point seven percent. This is on a comparable basis and its owned plus license, so it includes license brands that they'll have, you know, within the mix there. So they're showing traction in those little stores. But with the rest of the base, you know, being very weak and as they pointed out, they weren't really getting the conversion. What they're finding is you bring in sales people. Wow, that's really what if you think about department stores and where they came from, that's what they were known for in the past was service. But over the last couple of decades, the service and the salespeople have sort of left the stores. Now they're finding if they bring them back and they bring back the relevant brands, because one of the things that Tony Spring, CEO of the company, indicated is having newness and having the relevant brands that consumers care about. That's where you can get the impulse purchases. And so they're finding bringing in like a Carl wager Field or a Veclove Fee, which is it's like a Parisian, a chic Parisian type brand. It's a US brand, but it has that Paris streetwear aesthetic and that's resonating really well and they're getting very strong conversion.

Yeah, So, as with any turnaround, and here we are in another iteration of trying to get growth back for this. It's the largest department store, Macy's. They did show traction in the first fifty stores. The comps were up one percent, and that was an improvement from the first quarter, which was up just less than one percent. But the fact is that the rest of the go forward stores were down three point seven percent. This is on a comparable basis and its owned plus license, so it includes license brands that they'll have, you know, within the mix there. So they're showing traction in those little stores. But with the rest of the base, you know, being very weak and as they pointed out, they weren't really getting the conversion. What they're finding is you bring in sales people. Wow, that's really what if you think about department stores and where they came from, that's what they were known for in the past was service. But over the last couple of decades, the service and the salespeople have sort of left the stores. Now they're finding if they bring them back and they bring back the relevant brands, because one of the things that Tony Spring, CEO of the company, indicated is having newness and having the relevant brands that consumers care about. That's where you can get the impulse purchases. And so they're finding bringing in like a Carl wager Field or a Veclove Fee, which is it's like a Parisian, a chic Parisian type brand. It's a US brand, but it has that Paris streetwear aesthetic and that's resonating really well and they're getting very strong conversion.

So bringing back.

So bringing back.

Service levels, bringing back the relative relevant, relevant brands is really making a difference in those fifty stores. So they're going to add another one hundred stores where they're going to bring in service and handbags. They did see some strong sales with handbags again in those stores with the Lauren Ralph Lauren brand. So that's where I think you're going to see some improvements. Is just really better signage, cleaner stores. We've been seeing those improvements in the store that we frequent.

Service levels, bringing back the relative relevant, relevant brands is really making a difference in those fifty stores. So they're going to add another one hundred stores where they're going to bring in service and handbags. They did see some strong sales with handbags again in those stores with the Lauren Ralph Lauren brand. So that's where I think you're going to see some improvements. Is just really better signage, cleaner stores. We've been seeing those improvements in the store that we frequent.

They just need to take it across the rest of the base.

They just need to take it across the rest of the base.

And it seems like an about face because justin May, when we had heard from Macy's previously, in their prior earnings report, they had beat estimates also raised the company's outlook for the remainder of the year. But as you know, this leadist report comes on the heels of the company turning down that close to seven billion dollars buyout to offer from one of its shareholders, our Coals and of course it's partner Bridgegade Capital Management. Do we have any indication of whether or not that could be back on the table at some point.

And it seems like an about face because justin May, when we had heard from Macy's previously, in their prior earnings report, they had beat estimates also raised the company's outlook for the remainder of the year. But as you know, this leadist report comes on the heels of the company turning down that close to seven billion dollars buyout to offer from one of its shareholders, our Coals and of course it's partner Bridgegade Capital Management. Do we have any indication of whether or not that could be back on the table at some point.

I don't know if that'll be back on the table.

I don't know if that'll be back on the table.

I really think that they weren't able to demonstrate financing. I think that was the problem with that, and I also think that the price was low because even though Macy's is showing very weak results right now, and the market is showing investors don't really like what they're seeing in the court. It's one quarter and it's going to take time before we see real traction.

I really think that they weren't able to demonstrate financing. I think that was the problem with that, and I also think that the price was low because even though Macy's is showing very weak results right now, and the market is showing investors don't really like what they're seeing in the court. It's one quarter and it's going to take time before we see real traction.

So a year from now the story could.

So a year from now the story could.

Look very different if they're really able to execute on this plan closing the stores. They haven't closed the stores yet. They're going to close the first fifty five. It was going to be fifty. They up to another five stores are going to close at the end of the year. They always wait until after the holidays because that's when they generate the most cash. And then of course they're going to close another one hundred stores over the next couple of years.

Look very different if they're really able to execute on this plan closing the stores. They haven't closed the stores yet. They're going to close the first fifty five. It was going to be fifty. They up to another five stores are going to close at the end of the year. They always wait until after the holidays because that's when they generate the most cash. And then of course they're going to close another one hundred stores over the next couple of years.

But again they might accelerate that, so it's going to take time to show traction.

But again they might accelerate that, so it's going to take time to show traction.

So we'll see how the third quarter and fourth quorder go, especially with some of the changes that they're making to these incremental stores. But nonetheless, you can see who's gaining, and it's on the off price side. That's where, of course, we have TGX numbers out today and of course they beat.

So we'll see how the third quarter and fourth quorder go, especially with some of the changes that they're making to these incremental stores. But nonetheless, you can see who's gaining, and it's on the off price side. That's where, of course, we have TGX numbers out today and of course they beat.

Yeah, let's go to t TJX, owner of TJ max. Stock's hit an all time high today.

Yeah, let's go to t TJX, owner of TJ max. Stock's hit an all time high today.

What's TJX. What are they getting right?

What's TJX. What are they getting right?

What they're getting right is they have all those brands. They have the Treasure Hunt.

What they're getting right is they have all those brands. They have the Treasure Hunt.

There's fresh merchandise in those stores every week, and the brands range from the very high end, so they'll have Gucci and Chloe handbags, and then they'll also have like a Klin. So they're sort of covering all of the demographics with their assortments and they're making it relevant by store.

There's fresh merchandise in those stores every week, and the brands range from the very high end, so they'll have Gucci and Chloe handbags, and then they'll also have like a Klin. So they're sort of covering all of the demographics with their assortments and they're making it relevant by store.

They have.

They have.

They have the winning formula.

They have the winning formula.

This is an expertise that they have built up for years and they're the largest out there.

This is an expertise that they have built up for years and they're the largest out there.

It's a fifty six billion dollars in sales company.

It's a fifty six billion dollars in sales company.

And so in their quarter, of course, they beat with four percent comp sales and the consensus with two point seven and guidance two point you know, sort of in that one to two percent or low single digit range, and of course they raise their guidance. They're now expecting comp sales to be sort of in that three to four percent range, and they raise their EPs by about six.

And so in their quarter, of course, they beat with four percent comp sales and the consensus with two point seven and guidance two point you know, sort of in that one to two percent or low single digit range, and of course they raise their guidance. They're now expecting comp sales to be sort of in that three to four percent range, and they raise their EPs by about six.

Yes.

Yes.

Interest, Yeah, really solid results, all time high for the stock. As you mentioned, Mary, that really got it right. Mary Ross Gilbert, thank you so much for joining us. Mary Ross Gilbert is a senior ecuady analyst. He covers retail for Bloomberg. Intelligency is located in Los Angeles, California, joining us via that zoom thing.

Interest, Yeah, really solid results, all time high for the stock. As you mentioned, Mary, that really got it right. Mary Ross Gilbert, thank you so much for joining us. Mary Ross Gilbert is a senior ecuady analyst. He covers retail for Bloomberg. Intelligency is located in Los Angeles, California, joining us via that zoom thing.

So good news for TJX. Not so much for Macy's.

So good news for TJX. Not so much for Macy's.

No still on pace. It holds these losses, worst day in about a year.

No still on pace. It holds these losses, worst day in about a year.

Okay, very good, we'll keep on top of that.

Okay, very good, we'll keep on top of that.

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Live on YouTube. So head over to YouTube dot com.

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And search Bloomberg Podcast and that's where you will find us. Boy, the auto industry is pulling back big time from the s the EV business. I mean the latest news today, Ford Motor Company scraps electric suv and a one point nine billion dollar hit to its EV ambitions, canceling the fully electric three row utility vehicle Spending on EV's will drop to about thirty percent of CAPEX from forty percent. Steve Man joins is here. He's the global autos analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's done in Princeton, New Jersey. Steve, what's going on with the legacy auto companies and their transition if there is one to EV's, what's going on?

And search Bloomberg Podcast and that's where you will find us. Boy, the auto industry is pulling back big time from the s the EV business. I mean the latest news today, Ford Motor Company scraps electric suv and a one point nine billion dollar hit to its EV ambitions, canceling the fully electric three row utility vehicle Spending on EV's will drop to about thirty percent of CAPEX from forty percent. Steve Man joins is here. He's the global autos analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's done in Princeton, New Jersey. Steve, what's going on with the legacy auto companies and their transition if there is one to EV's, what's going on?

Yeah, it's a huge kind of one eighty turn for Ford. Remember, you know, they were probably one of the first Western automakers to actually introduce evs. You're the Mustang mach Ee, the Ford one fifty Lightning and you know they're still selling well. But I think it's they're actually bleeding quite a bit of money in the last twelve months. They've lost five billion on ev So, you know, I think, you know, they need to revisit and see, uh, instead of a market leader in evs, they probably needs to, you know, step back and maybe become a follower until the market recovers.

Yeah, it's a huge kind of one eighty turn for Ford. Remember, you know, they were probably one of the first Western automakers to actually introduce evs. You're the Mustang mach Ee, the Ford one fifty Lightning and you know they're still selling well. But I think it's they're actually bleeding quite a bit of money in the last twelve months. They've lost five billion on ev So, you know, I think, you know, they need to revisit and see, uh, instead of a market leader in evs, they probably needs to, you know, step back and maybe become a follower until the market recovers.

And just looking at it stock Paul and I were talking about this earlier. The taker symbol is f for Ford. When you see the draw down that it had from that peak that we did see earlier, in July dropped as much as actually thirty three percent. Now it's about still ways from that peak that we did see. But what is it that shareholders really need to hear in the messaging from Ford in order to turn that stock around.

And just looking at it stock Paul and I were talking about this earlier. The taker symbol is f for Ford. When you see the draw down that it had from that peak that we did see earlier, in July dropped as much as actually thirty three percent. Now it's about still ways from that peak that we did see. But what is it that shareholders really need to hear in the messaging from Ford in order to turn that stock around.

Yeah, a couple things. So, you know, today the stock is really not reacting to to this news. You know, I think what the investors are looking for is really similar to what GM and Stillentis has done, which is buy backstock. You know, they want to hear that they're you know, they're gonna you know, spend, use the cash, use some of that cash that they're conserving from cutting back R and D, and buy back some stock, return some to the shareholder. So, you know, I think that's why the stock hasn't moved that much today in reaction to this news.

Yeah, a couple things. So, you know, today the stock is really not reacting to to this news. You know, I think what the investors are looking for is really similar to what GM and Stillentis has done, which is buy backstock. You know, they want to hear that they're you know, they're gonna you know, spend, use the cash, use some of that cash that they're conserving from cutting back R and D, and buy back some stock, return some to the shareholder. So, you know, I think that's why the stock hasn't moved that much today in reaction to this news.

All Right, Steve, this kind of goes to the heart of the matter. I think for me and probably a lot of investors in this auto industry is what really, at the end of the day, is consumer demand for evs. Is it fair to say it's not as much today as maybe the industry thought two three years ago.

All Right, Steve, this kind of goes to the heart of the matter. I think for me and probably a lot of investors in this auto industry is what really, at the end of the day, is consumer demand for evs. Is it fair to say it's not as much today as maybe the industry thought two three years ago.

Yeah, I think the estimates out there in the past were probably a little bit frothy, like we're actually expecting, you know, penetration to be around twenty five maybe thirty percent by twenty thirty, but other estimates out there were like fifty seventy five percent penetration rate by twenty thirty. It's a little bit too aggressive. I think we're just coming back through reality from the hype we have. But the other thing is there's a lot of competition out there right. The Chinese are really looking to you know, compete with the legacy auto makers on cost, on technology, and you know, that brings up another question that I think investors have in their mind is, you know, is this the right strategy for Ford really to step back at this moment? Should they Should they be doubling down right, investing more and really compete on a global level. So, you know, so hopefully that answers questions and.

Yeah, I think the estimates out there in the past were probably a little bit frothy, like we're actually expecting, you know, penetration to be around twenty five maybe thirty percent by twenty thirty, but other estimates out there were like fifty seventy five percent penetration rate by twenty thirty. It's a little bit too aggressive. I think we're just coming back through reality from the hype we have. But the other thing is there's a lot of competition out there right. The Chinese are really looking to you know, compete with the legacy auto makers on cost, on technology, and you know, that brings up another question that I think investors have in their mind is, you know, is this the right strategy for Ford really to step back at this moment? Should they Should they be doubling down right, investing more and really compete on a global level. So, you know, so hopefully that answers questions and.

You've written about too when it comes to Ford and the rising inventories as well as the increasing price competition when it comes to a profitability headwind here, what as we know as far as what the rest of the year could look like when it comes to those earnings calls that executives have talked about.

You've written about too when it comes to Ford and the rising inventories as well as the increasing price competition when it comes to a profitability headwind here, what as we know as far as what the rest of the year could look like when it comes to those earnings calls that executives have talked about.

Oh, there's a lot of risk in the second half. I think we're heading back to pre COVID levels, you know, with the supply chains, booths out, you know, every you know, they're they're they're ramping up, they've been ramping up production. And at the same time, interest rate is still high. Right, there are talks about cutting interest rates to help out the consumers, but you know, we haven't seen that yet, and you know we you know, it probably needs more than a few a couple of cuts before we get to a point where consumer gets more excited about buying. You know, a much more expensive vehicle today than it was three years ago. You know, average price for vehicles fifty thousand dollars now is not thirty five, it's not forty, it's fifty thousand. So you know, monthly cost is a lot higher for consumer, the cost of acquisition, the cost of ownership is much higher today than before.

Oh, there's a lot of risk in the second half. I think we're heading back to pre COVID levels, you know, with the supply chains, booths out, you know, every you know, they're they're they're ramping up, they've been ramping up production. And at the same time, interest rate is still high. Right, there are talks about cutting interest rates to help out the consumers, but you know, we haven't seen that yet, and you know we you know, it probably needs more than a few a couple of cuts before we get to a point where consumer gets more excited about buying. You know, a much more expensive vehicle today than it was three years ago. You know, average price for vehicles fifty thousand dollars now is not thirty five, it's not forty, it's fifty thousand. So you know, monthly cost is a lot higher for consumer, the cost of acquisition, the cost of ownership is much higher today than before.

All right, Steve Man, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.

All right, Steve Man, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.

Steve Man, Global autos analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's done at Prince in New Jersey. Appreciate getting a few minutes of his time. They're on forward kind of backing away to some degree, from its ev ambitions.

Steve Man, Global autos analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's done at Prince in New Jersey. Appreciate getting a few minutes of his time. They're on forward kind of backing away to some degree, from its ev ambitions.

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