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Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Isabelle Lee
Today’s Podcast Features are:
Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director, discusses consumer sentiment data. US consumer sentiment fell to the second-lowest level on record, with nearly three-fourths of respondents mentioning tariffs as a concern.
Michael Shah, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Pharma-Biotech Analyst, discusses Novo Nordisk replacing CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen. It’s due to increased competition for its Wegovy obesity shots and a 53% decline in its share price over the past 12 months.
Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst on US Media, discusses Charter Communications agreeing to combine with closely held Cox Communications in a cash-and-stock deal that would unite two of the biggest US cable providers.
George Ferguson, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Aerospace, Defense, & Airlines Analyst, discusses Boeing reaching a tentative non-prosecution agreement with the US Justice Department in a fraud case stemming from two fatal 737 Max plane crashes. That’s according to Reuters.
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On the economic from We've got some University of Michigan sentiment data today, just coming out at ten am Wall Street time.
Not good.
University of Michigan sentiment came out at fifty point eight. Consensus was fifty three point four. Last period it was fifty two point two. This is the second lowest rating or measurement on record. Joann chu joins us here Surveys of Consumers, Director at the University of Michigan. Johanne putting in the context the numbers you guys.
Reported today, essentially we should think of this as very little change from April. Over the course of this year, we've seen consecutive months of very very strong declines. This most recent one was a very small decline and essentially flat. But as you pointed out, this is a very very low reading. Consumers continue to feel very dour about the economy. They're worried about the impact of tariffs on inflation and also the impact on unemployment. They're really worried about multiple dimensions of the economy. That was what they saw last month, and they continue to see dark times ahead.
And nearly three fourths of the respond then spontaneously mentioned tariffs and that topic cross partisan lines. Can you tell us what you thought of that.
We've been seeing a rising share of consumers spontaneously mention spontaneously mentioning tariffs. A few months ago, it was really a fairly small number of people, and now it's almost three quarters. It's cutting across partisan lines. It's really on everyone's minds, and at this point, consumers are really waiting for the other shoe to drop in terms of its impact on inflation. And it's not just the fact that tariff policies have come in pretty high, but it's also the uncertainty and instability of it. So falling this most recent pause on some China terrafts, we saw a little bit of improvement, but it really wasn't enough to reverse the sour readings that we've been seeing for the last few months.
The University of Michigan one year inflation outlook, the consensus was six and a half percent, which is.
An elevated number.
Came in even higher than that, it's seven point three percent. What's driving that.
Again, it's the uncertainty and instability of tariff policy. Consumers are aware that inflation right now isn't necessarily reflecting those terraffs yet, but they're waiting, they're really bracing for the impact. And interestingly, the increases in both short and long run inflation expectations were very much being driven by increases among Republicans. So even those who might broadly be in agreement with the president's economic policies are quite worried that the outlook for inflation has worsened recently.
Joanne, thank you so much for that.
Joy and Shue Surveys of consumers director at the University of Michigan. Again some significantly weaker than expected out look from the you Mish survey, so we'll stay on top of that.
Of course, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
This is about Lady sitting in for Alextel on Paul Sweeney Live here in our Bloomberg in Director Broker Studio streaming live on YouTube as well. So news coming out of the pharmaceutical space. Novo Nordisk is replacing its CEO amid increased in competitions for its we govy OBCD shots and a fifty three percent decline and the share presser over the past twelve months. Boy, these socks are having a tough time. They did so well during the pandemic and everybody's trying to adjust post pandemic. It seems like I'm thinking about United Healthcare as well. Mikey Shaw joins us. He's a senior farmer farmer tech analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.
He's in London.
He's one of a really really good analyst over there in London, one of the best in the city covered in this space.
He learned from an old guy, but he's the he's the young guy, all right.
Michael shaff tellas what's going on at Novo. Is it the CEO's problem or do they have a bigger issue?
Yeah, I mean they announced the decision today, certainly unexpected by us. Seems a bit you know, abrupt to nature. You know, NOA tends to be very steady in their approach, but they also take you know, a long term approach to things, So maybe they think, you know, Jorgenson can't kind of steer the ship in light of the challenges that they're facing, and that their duty to face as well. You know, as I said, there's been a bit of a turn in fortune since mid twenty four. Some of that's been market challenges, some of that's been kind of pipeline execution. In terms of the market challenges, I mean, it's difficult to know kind of what the CEO is, but you know how they were meant to kind of react to that. So you know, you saw US policy pressures or and then you also saw headwinds from j LPE compounding due to you know, supply shortage, and then on the pipeline side of things, you know, you had underwhelming results for Cagary Semmer and then you also, you know, we also had kind of reservations around a novel's or all OBC strategy, so that was heavily focused on peptides. You know, they've done a series of deals recently which are now focused on oral small molecules. So that suggests that perhaps not investing sooner in that space was perhaps an oversight, and I think, you know, the move today or the decision today, you know, really reaffirms kind of perceptions that you know, while Novo had the first mover advantage in obesity, you know, they certainly have lost ground to Eli Lilly now, which looks like it has a stronger abuse you're offering out of the two players.
What's interesting to me is how he will continue as CEO for a period to support a smooth transition to a new leadership. Quote. I mean Nova has only had three CEOs. How will this affect sentiment? I mean, are people more optimistic and reinvigorated that yes, maybe we can finally have a turning point, or are they using feeling a little bit more pessimistic because it sounds like they really have a good culture.
Yeah, I mean that's the thing, all right. Yeah, I said that the timing seemed a bit odd. Nova's obviously you're expecting an uptic in GLP one in the second half of the year, as as you see easing headwinds from from compounding, So you know, I think the timing's a bit weird. The last time they changed their CEO, they announced the successor at the same time. That was Yogison. Say, the switch between the Sorencefu and Yugason.
Today.
You know, they're basically just saying that they're reviewing internal and external candidates, but the strategy remains unchanged. The fact that they say the strategy remains unchanged makes us believe that, you know, it's clearly an execution issue and that you know, the board and the major shareholder, which is no both Foundation through Novo Holdings have clearly kind of lost confidence in in Jorginson.
So talk to us about the just kind of what we're seeing in that weight loss drug market generally. Where are we in this development, who are in how's it kind of shaken out in terms of leaders in that marketplace?
Yeah, so I think I think Lily now is you know, the clear leader. It's got the better portfolio, it's more effective drug out there. What's going to be key going forward now is there's going to be a lot of focus on oral anti oral jp ones. So these fall into two categories. One peptide, which is which is a large molecule, and then you've got the small molecule such an awful glippron, you know thing that awful get from, which is Lily's assets. That's clearly got the better profile when comparing that to Novo Nordice or Sema Glue Tide. That's input part because one it's probably easy easier to scale because of the type of molecule that it is, and two you don't have these kind of strict dosing criterias where you have to take it on an empty stomach, et cetera, which you know, we think is the drawback to convenience. Now, you know, we've seen kind of the difficulties in kind of scaling up injectable GLP ones, we don't envisage, you know, the same issue with withal or molecule glp ones. So that would essentially, you know, allow kind of you know, great penetration of of the of the VS market.
The competition has definitely intensified, and Novo stock has more than half in the past year. What about Trump's pharmatarists that looms over the company as well.
Yeah, I think it leaves over Nova. I think it looms over you know, drug companies as a whole. Yeah, clearly negative. But also you know it's source of aol. It is see there's no real detail on it, so you know, it's difficult to kind of comment on the potential impact that these tariffs could have and when they're going to come in And you know, that's kind of a commentary that we kind of heard over a large farmers one key results too.
All right, Mikey, thank you so much for joining us.
Micro Shaw he covers all the pharmaceutical companies for Bloomberg Intelligence over in London.
We hired Mikey when he was a young associate.
He did really well there, were promoted to analysts, did really well there, got promoted.
To senior analysts.
Now he's one of the senior folks in the city of London covering his big farmer companies and it's just a great success story. And that's what Bloomberg Intelligence has had a lot of success with, which is identifying and nurturing young talent, and Mikey Shaw's certainly one of those there and that's a great thing to see.
You're lesson to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, cock Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Big Big trade in the world of media and telecommunications. Charter Comic Communication that's a public traded company. Find Cox Communications, which is a privately held cable company. Thirty four and a half billion dollars. It's a value on Cox. This is a huge deal, folks, and we want to get the latest. So we turned to Getha Ranganath and Bloomberg Intelligence senior media analyst, Getha.
Big big deal was this? What does this do for Charter?
Here?
What's the rationale for Charter laying out this big, big trade here?
Yeah? Absolutely, Paul, I mean yes, we were expecting something to happen in the cable space. Remember, Charter right now before this deal is the second largest broadband US broadband provider with about thirty million subscribers. With this deal, what happens is they really kind of get the catapult to number one position edging past Comcast and having almost thirty six million broadband subscribers. And really the rationale for the deal, Paul, is that cable has been under intense pressure. So just a few years ago, Cable completely dominated the broadband landscape with about a sixty seven percent market share. They have been losing share to the telecom players, the Verizons, the T mobiles, and the AT and TS of the world because those players have come out with a much cheaper broadband solution with what is known as five G home Internet or fixed wireless access is priced about twenty to thirty percent lower than a cable broadband product. And you know, they've also been ramping up their fiber rollouts, so a cable kind of really facing it on both ends of the spectrum in terms of competition. And this is really just about them kind of gaining scales and better efficiencies and operations.
So they've had talks about this more than a decade ago, and too many people's point, isn't a surprise? What change in that horizon? Like why was it not pushed through before? And why are we seeing it happen right now?
I mean there have been multiple things, so, you know, regulatory concerns have obviously been you know, one of the foremost issues for the cable space. Remember just I think just less than ten years ago in twenty sixteen, Comcast tried to buy Time Warner Cable, failed in that transaction, and then Chotter went ahead and then acquired you know, Time Warner Cable. So regulatory issues have certainly been you know, front and center, and I think you know right now. The stimulus for this was really the fact that the cable industry is kind of facing all of these challenges from the telecoms, intense competitive challenges, and I think Cox really saw this as a really good strategy for them to you know, exit all right, So.
This begs the question and you mentioned earlier, what does Comcast do here? Is there a response here from Comcasts as strategic response here?
So Comcast actually already has a deal kind of in the works in terms of their spinoff of their cable networks. So that's on the media side of the business, that's not on the cable side of the business. But they are spinning off their cable networks. That should happen sometime a little bit later this year. And the expectation, Paul has been that once that deal happens, you know, once they spin off that cable network's division into its own entity, that will become a roll up for many other networks, most notably you know, the Warner Brothers, Discovery networks, maybe even you know, a smaller AMC networks. So really there's been a lot more chatter for Comcast on the media side rather than the cable side.
But We'll have to wait and watch when it comes to anti trust. Do you think that it helps that Charter cocks deal isn't a big tech company because we know that competition officials, even Vice president Jdvance, have really closely looked at that space.
Yeah, I think that definitely helps. Also, this is you know, there is absolutely no overlap in terms of their footprint. You know, cable is a very regional business, so again this does not in any way hamper competition. It's actually good for consumers. And the one thing that you know, the Charter executives kept mentioning on the call was you know they are basically going to create more jobs in America. So this is, you know, good overall. So definitely, just kind of given the size and scope of the transaction, we don't really expect any big regulatory pushback.
All right, Keith rung Anathan, thank you so much.
We appreciate ta Keith rung Annas and she covers all the media companies for Bloomberg Intelligencies based in Princeton, New Jersey.
Again a big, big deal.
Charter Communications HTR is the tigger buying privately held Cost Communications for twenty one point nine billion.
Dollar equity value.
There's also a lot of debt in there, so the enterprise values much higher. A big, big transaction that the folks down in Atlanta, the Cox found have been a long time family company, owning a wide variety of media assets, newspapers like the Atlanta Constitution, radio stations, TV stations, cable.
Amongst other things. So this is a big, big transaction for them.
They are getting out of the cable television business and they're considered very, very smart operator, so that tells you how tough that business is. And when they're saying they cannot compete with their scale, so a big transaction in that space.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Hey, it's been a good week for Boeing. First, she got a whole slew of orders, recording their biggest order ever coming out.
Of the Mid East.
So a good revenue potential backlog for Boeing. And then today there's reporting and we're to stay on top of it. A couple of sources. Reuter says that Boeing is an a tentative deal to avoid US prosecution, and the Wall Street Journal reporting that the Justice Department wants to spare Boeing from a guilty plea over seven thirty seven max charges. So again, a potential really good piece of news for Boeing stocks unchanged on the day, but it is up fifteen percent you to date at a fifty two week high. George Ferguson joins US. He covers the airlines, the aerospace companies, including Boeing. Hey, George, this seems like a big deal to me. How do you how do you read it?
Yeah, so I do think it's a good it's a good situation when Boeing can avoid a felony conviction, which I think ultimately was going to happen here before the Justice Department, I guess, sort of stood down or didn't care as much, and so, you know, there was a lot.
Of questions, I guess about whether or not.
A company that had been convicted of a felony could be a government contractor.
I mean, my personal opinion was that Boeing.
Was just too important to the defense industrial complex to not be allowed to be a defense contractor.
And so.
They would have found the Defense Department would have found a way around it. And maybe that's one of the reasons for a little bit of indifference in the marketplace right now over it.
But I think in the long run it is a.
Really I think good thing for the company to avoid having to be considered a fellon.
You made a good point that if you're a fellon, you can't really have government contracts. Critics would say that maybe the current administration probably had an influence on this. What would you respond to that, And it's probably hard to ignore given that. For instance, President Donald Trump said that Boeing had some headaches, but it makes one of the best planes quote in his remarks when he was at the UAE.
Yeah, I mean it does feel that way to me.
And again, I think the challenge here is, look, but Boeing did have some problems, clearly, you know, with the seven thirty seven, and you know they were supposed to put in place an overseer that was going to help fix those problems.
I think there's a lot of focus.
On the company right now, and I do think it's probably in the country's best interest not to impede its ability to be a contractor again to DoD and to other parts of the government. And so I'm looking little longer, and I don't think we need the felony conviction in order to make sure the right thing happens at Boeing, and so, you know, so I'm sure.
I wouldn't throw too many films in this one.
With a little bit of a hindsight here put into context Boeing's weak in terms of orders.
How big was it?
Yeah, no, it was a nice week.
So we we expect more of this to come. You know, I really think as the administration goes out and focuses on trade with the world and balance of payments, that countries around the world are going to look for ways to equalize that. And Boeing is one of the most important exporters for the US and look there, and we've reported the Bloomberg terminal.
About this, right there. Sales recently have definitely lagged, right.
I think as customers have watched the problems of Boeing, watched the quality problems, the problems ramping up production, and so they're probably is already a natural springback for a pretty decent order year this year. Because again I think some of those core customers they haven't moved on. They're not going to buy air Bus. Their fleets a lot of their fleets are primarily Boeing, so they want to buy Boeing. It's in their best interest to buy Boeing, but they just didn't want to get in the order book right now because it was such a mess last year. So I think that springback coupled with an administration that's going to go around the world and say, hey, what are you doing to balance payments with us? And you know, and when countries go, I don't know, I guess we're off sides. The administration shows them, I guess chips and bowing airplanes and they go, okay, we'll take a bunch of bowing airplanes. Anyways, I think, you know you're going to see again more of this. So it was a good week, but I think there's more to come, and there's a spring back as well involved.
Here thirty second storage.
What's the run rate today on seven three seven deliveries and where does it need to be?
And April we saw we think mid twenties going through the factory.
I think that's pretty good. We'd like to be seeing mid.
Thirties by mid year, and we think they ought to be able to break thirty eight by end of the year.
For seven thirty.
Seven, George excell appreciate you coming on short notice. George Ferguson covers airlines and the aerospace companies for Bloomberg Intelligence.
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