Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

With your data dependent And we got that you mission number, that final rease.

With your data dependent And we got that you mission number, that final rease.

So let's go to Jorana Shue, Surveys of Consumers, Director for the University of Michigan. University of Michigan sentiment came out seventy one point one. The consensus was seventy three point two. Joanne, what does the data tell you here?

So let's go to Jorana Shue, Surveys of Consumers, Director for the University of Michigan. University of Michigan sentiment came out seventy one point one. The consensus was seventy three point two. Joanne, what does the data tell you here?

The consumers are really not sure about what's going to be going on in the future, particularly with this administration change. We're of course.

The consumers are really not sure about what's going to be going on in the future, particularly with this administration change. We're of course.

Seeing partisan differences.

Seeing partisan differences.

Republicans are feeling pretty optimistic about the future, Democrats less so. And this is really coming down to a difference in opinion about what Trump's anticipated policies are going to result in for the economy.

Republicans are feeling pretty optimistic about the future, Democrats less so. And this is really coming down to a difference in opinion about what Trump's anticipated policies are going to result in for the economy.

What about the inflation expectations? Like which kind of changes do we see there? Because of course we're all waiting to see if tariffs do come down, will they wind up being inflationary.

What about the inflation expectations? Like which kind of changes do we see there? Because of course we're all waiting to see if tariffs do come down, will they wind up being inflationary.

So inflation expectations for the short run they surged quite a bit between December and January, and they went up as well for the long run three point zero in December, three point two this month. Consumers are really quite concerned about tariffs, and actually concerned in different ways.

So inflation expectations for the short run they surged quite a bit between December and January, and they went up as well for the long run three point zero in December, three point two this month. Consumers are really quite concerned about tariffs, and actually concerned in different ways.

Democrats.

Democrats.

People who believe that tariffs are better for the economy, they think that inflation is going to plummet. People who think that tariffs are bad for the economy, they think that inflation is going to come surging back. So overall, consumers have already incorporated expected tariffs into their economic attitudes.

People who believe that tariffs are better for the economy, they think that inflation is going to plummet. People who think that tariffs are bad for the economy, they think that inflation is going to come surging back. So overall, consumers have already incorporated expected tariffs into their economic attitudes.

All right, Joanne, thank you so much. We appreciate that.

All right, Joanne, thank you so much. We appreciate that.

Joan Shue Surveys of Consumers, Director for the University of Michigan and University of Michigan headline number came out. Sentiment number seventy one point one was the actual. The consensus was seventy three point two, and was seventy three point two in the prior period. So, as Joanne was saying, some concerning out there, perhaps about some changes in economic policies, at least initially.

Joan Shue Surveys of Consumers, Director for the University of Michigan and University of Michigan headline number came out. Sentiment number seventy one point one was the actual. The consensus was seventy three point two, and was seventy three point two in the prior period. So, as Joanne was saying, some concerning out there, perhaps about some changes in economic policies, at least initially.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Alex Deal Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, streaming live on YouTube as well. The easiest way to find it I found is just go to Bloomberg YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast Live.

Alex Deal Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, streaming live on YouTube as well. The easiest way to find it I found is just go to Bloomberg YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast Live.

And it comes right up. So how tough is that?

And it comes right up. So how tough is that?

It is Friday, which means we talked to one be Ridholt's barrier. Ridolts, he does this podcast thing. I think it's kind of popular. The host of Masters and Business on Bloomberg Radio is also the founder of Erdtholt's wealth management Barry Make America great Again. One could look at the economic data and say, country's doing pretty well.

It is Friday, which means we talked to one be Ridholt's barrier. Ridolts, he does this podcast thing. I think it's kind of popular. The host of Masters and Business on Bloomberg Radio is also the founder of Erdtholt's wealth management Barry Make America great Again. One could look at the economic data and say, country's doing pretty well.

How do you think about it?

How do you think about it?

Yeah, you know, this is the second time President Trump, first in twenty seventeen, now in twenty twenty five, inherited a really robust economy. So we'll just look at the previous year and when you look at his first term, the worst effects of the financial crisis had faded. Things had been on the upswing, at least enough for President Obama to get re elected in twenty twelve. By twenty sixteen, you know, we were really flying. Market was at a new all time high, and the economy is doing pretty well. Here we are twenty twenty five, twenty twenty four, GDP is going to be pretty close to three percent for the year. Unemployment is at four point one percent, that's close to full employment. Inflation is back under three percent heading towards two. We can argue if two percent is a credible inflation target in a fiscal stimulus environment, but two point seven percent headline CPI wages are higher, markets are at record highs, corporate profits are record highs. I could make the case that America is already, at least economically speaking, pretty great.

Yeah, you know, this is the second time President Trump, first in twenty seventeen, now in twenty twenty five, inherited a really robust economy. So we'll just look at the previous year and when you look at his first term, the worst effects of the financial crisis had faded. Things had been on the upswing, at least enough for President Obama to get re elected in twenty twelve. By twenty sixteen, you know, we were really flying. Market was at a new all time high, and the economy is doing pretty well. Here we are twenty twenty five, twenty twenty four, GDP is going to be pretty close to three percent for the year. Unemployment is at four point one percent, that's close to full employment. Inflation is back under three percent heading towards two. We can argue if two percent is a credible inflation target in a fiscal stimulus environment, but two point seven percent headline CPI wages are higher, markets are at record highs, corporate profits are record highs. I could make the case that America is already, at least economically speaking, pretty great.

Right. So that makes me feel two things.

Right. So that makes me feel two things.

One either freaked out that there's only room to you for downside or two, well, then you add on, say deregulation, and you add on lower taxes, and we're going to see some better times too.

One either freaked out that there's only room to you for downside or two, well, then you add on, say deregulation, and you add on lower taxes, and we're going to see some better times too.

So first, you know, it's very hard to say the economy is doing really well, and like a person who's enjoyed a great, healthy, long life lifespan. They don't just suddenly roll over and die. The economies don't just trip and face plants, at least not develop large ecout He's like the US. So you know, I had to I have coming up in a week or so Torsten Slock from Apollo Global Management, and he puts the risk of recession at zero percent. Listen, I don't put anything at zero percent, but that get you know, we could a meteor that killed the dinosaurs. There's more than a zero percent chance that that happens this weekend. It's close to zero percent. So I think what he's trying to say is this economy is firing on all cylinders. Wherever you look, there is strength. And if you look at how poorly the rest of the economists world have done over the past few years, consistently forecasting recession, slow down this, I think they underestimate the strength of the US economy. The if you look around we have are suffering from labor shortages, is housing shortages, automobile shortages. That's a big driving factor in preventing any sort of softness to happen, because anytime you know, a new house gets built, it gets bought up right away. Anytime there are qualified people in a labor pool, they get hired right away. And so it's to say nothing of all of the positive activity activity we've seen over the past few years, not just AI, but data centers and software and technology. Those things tend to have momentum and they tend to persist. That's not a week to week or month to month economic factor. Those are drivers that can last years and years, almost a decade. So we just have a lot of economic tailwinds behind us, and people have just been way too negative. That's before we get to the positives. And this administration is potentially a mixed bag the risks and opportunities.

So first, you know, it's very hard to say the economy is doing really well, and like a person who's enjoyed a great, healthy, long life lifespan. They don't just suddenly roll over and die. The economies don't just trip and face plants, at least not develop large ecout He's like the US. So you know, I had to I have coming up in a week or so Torsten Slock from Apollo Global Management, and he puts the risk of recession at zero percent. Listen, I don't put anything at zero percent, but that get you know, we could a meteor that killed the dinosaurs. There's more than a zero percent chance that that happens this weekend. It's close to zero percent. So I think what he's trying to say is this economy is firing on all cylinders. Wherever you look, there is strength. And if you look at how poorly the rest of the economists world have done over the past few years, consistently forecasting recession, slow down this, I think they underestimate the strength of the US economy. The if you look around we have are suffering from labor shortages, is housing shortages, automobile shortages. That's a big driving factor in preventing any sort of softness to happen, because anytime you know, a new house gets built, it gets bought up right away. Anytime there are qualified people in a labor pool, they get hired right away. And so it's to say nothing of all of the positive activity activity we've seen over the past few years, not just AI, but data centers and software and technology. Those things tend to have momentum and they tend to persist. That's not a week to week or month to month economic factor. Those are drivers that can last years and years, almost a decade. So we just have a lot of economic tailwinds behind us, and people have just been way too negative. That's before we get to the positives. And this administration is potentially a mixed bag the risks and opportunities.

But from a market.

But from a market.

Perspective, there certainly are a lot of opportunities coming.

Perspective, there certainly are a lot of opportunities coming.

Barry, Are you concerned at all about potential headwinds coming from either tariffs or material changes to immigration policy that may be inflationary, that may harm the labor market, any of those types of things.

Barry, Are you concerned at all about potential headwinds coming from either tariffs or material changes to immigration policy that may be inflationary, that may harm the labor market, any of those types of things.

Yeah, everything comes down to interest rates all the risk So there are risky policies from the Trump administration, and there are opportunistic policies from Trump two point zero. The risky policies all come down to interest rates. The wildcard factor of geopolitics. I have no idea what he's going to do with China, Russia, in the Middle East. You know, risk of let's not even talk about war, just disruption is problematic. I don't know how else to describe tariffs other than a price increase paid for by domestic consumers. You know, the FED has talked about tariffs as inflationary and potent preventing even more rate decreases. When Trump actually made his presentation at Davos, he not only called on lower oil prices from Opek, he called for lower rates from all the central banks around the world. Well, we import a ton of oil and petroleum products from Canada. If you're going to slap a ten or a twenty percent level rate on that, guess what That's going to be inflationary. So I'm a little concerned about this. My wishful thinking is, hey, this is a negotiating tactic, and to be fair, much of the tariffs around the world are not even handed. You cannot have a ten twenty thirty percent tariff on US goods and it's less manufactured goods than it is agricultural or all the energy we're exporting liquefied natural gas as well as various forms of petroleum. There needs to be some fairness and parody. So while many of my friends on the left scream about, oh, this is going to be terrible, Hey, there's a case to be made. There's a reasonable negotiation to get some fairness. It has to be a two way street. It can't just be American consumers wealthy as though they are paying most of the tariffs in the world. That doesn't seem to be fair. Hopefully we can get some positive resolution to the tariff question.

Yeah, everything comes down to interest rates all the risk So there are risky policies from the Trump administration, and there are opportunistic policies from Trump two point zero. The risky policies all come down to interest rates. The wildcard factor of geopolitics. I have no idea what he's going to do with China, Russia, in the Middle East. You know, risk of let's not even talk about war, just disruption is problematic. I don't know how else to describe tariffs other than a price increase paid for by domestic consumers. You know, the FED has talked about tariffs as inflationary and potent preventing even more rate decreases. When Trump actually made his presentation at Davos, he not only called on lower oil prices from Opek, he called for lower rates from all the central banks around the world. Well, we import a ton of oil and petroleum products from Canada. If you're going to slap a ten or a twenty percent level rate on that, guess what That's going to be inflationary. So I'm a little concerned about this. My wishful thinking is, hey, this is a negotiating tactic, and to be fair, much of the tariffs around the world are not even handed. You cannot have a ten twenty thirty percent tariff on US goods and it's less manufactured goods than it is agricultural or all the energy we're exporting liquefied natural gas as well as various forms of petroleum. There needs to be some fairness and parody. So while many of my friends on the left scream about, oh, this is going to be terrible, Hey, there's a case to be made. There's a reasonable negotiation to get some fairness. It has to be a two way street. It can't just be American consumers wealthy as though they are paying most of the tariffs in the world. That doesn't seem to be fair. Hopefully we can get some positive resolution to the tariff question.

So and then it all brings back to sequencing, right, Like tariffs will probably hit faster than maybe deregulation and corporate taxes, but the sequencing may not matter if we know that, say, deregulation and corporate taxes are coming.

So and then it all brings back to sequencing, right, Like tariffs will probably hit faster than maybe deregulation and corporate taxes, but the sequencing may not matter if we know that, say, deregulation and corporate taxes are coming.

Is that a fair assessment.

Is that a fair assessment.

You know?

You know?

I that's a really interesting question because I have no idea of what the sequencing sequencing is going to be. Like, anything that's going to require Congress is going to take longer. But a perfect example, the FTC on President Biden was pretty aggressive in restraining.

I that's a really interesting question because I have no idea of what the sequencing sequencing is going to be. Like, anything that's going to require Congress is going to take longer. But a perfect example, the FTC on President Biden was pretty aggressive in restraining.

M and A activity.

M and A activity.

I mean, to be fair, the FTC has been asleep at the switch for three decades and have allowed an intense concentration of corporate power. Anyone who's bought a concert ticket knows how ridiculous the Live Nation Ticketmaster merger was allowed, and you could say the same thing about You could say the same thing about a lot of other technology mergers that have been allowed. There's far fewer healthcare companies, far fewer energy companies. It's it's really become a little bit of a corporatetocracy. But you know, a defanged FTC is going to allow more m and a activity generally that supportive of higher market prices. There'll be no scrutiny on stock buy backs, so that tends to support higher prices. You know, the IPO market's been pretty dead for a few years. That's gonna start coming back to life, as well as secondaries, to say nothing of the deregulation to specific sectors. So think about healthcare and energy. I can't it's hard to imagine. We've been producing record amounts of oil in the United States the past few years. They're going to open up even more areas.

I mean, to be fair, the FTC has been asleep at the switch for three decades and have allowed an intense concentration of corporate power. Anyone who's bought a concert ticket knows how ridiculous the Live Nation Ticketmaster merger was allowed, and you could say the same thing about You could say the same thing about a lot of other technology mergers that have been allowed. There's far fewer healthcare companies, far fewer energy companies. It's it's really become a little bit of a corporatetocracy. But you know, a defanged FTC is going to allow more m and a activity generally that supportive of higher market prices. There'll be no scrutiny on stock buy backs, so that tends to support higher prices. You know, the IPO market's been pretty dead for a few years. That's gonna start coming back to life, as well as secondaries, to say nothing of the deregulation to specific sectors. So think about healthcare and energy. I can't it's hard to imagine. We've been producing record amounts of oil in the United States the past few years. They're going to open up even more areas.

Now.

Now.

The politics of that is a little bit divisive, but just being cold blooded and looking at it from an economic perspective. Hey, more energy means lower more petroleum means lower oil prices, which is anti inflationary. Same with materials. Energy and materials were two of the worst sectors last year. Maybe they catch.

The politics of that is a little bit divisive, but just being cold blooded and looking at it from an economic perspective. Hey, more energy means lower more petroleum means lower oil prices, which is anti inflationary. Same with materials. Energy and materials were two of the worst sectors last year. Maybe they catch.

A bit Barry, real quick, what are you driving this weekend in this weather?

A bit Barry, real quick, what are you driving this weekend in this weather?

The truck, I'm gonna be out in something with heated seats and a heated steering wheel, and I don't really care about hand or I'm looking out my home office window. Everything is still snowed over, still iced over, and the thermostat says we're still in the teens. Hopefully by Sunday. Well, we'll get out of this deep freeze and I could take something out like any of the fun cars. Their tires are just terrible in twenty degree weather. They have no grip.

The truck, I'm gonna be out in something with heated seats and a heated steering wheel, and I don't really care about hand or I'm looking out my home office window. Everything is still snowed over, still iced over, and the thermostat says we're still in the teens. Hopefully by Sunday. Well, we'll get out of this deep freeze and I could take something out like any of the fun cars. Their tires are just terrible in twenty degree weather. They have no grip.

Well.

Well.

Also, though teens is kind of a heat wave, so at this point.

Also, though teens is kind of a heat wave, so at this point.

Yeah, look at that one. Get them to thirties on Sundays.

Yeah, look at that one. Get them to thirties on Sundays.

I mean that's like bathing suit weather. Barry. We appreciate you, Thank you very much.

I mean that's like bathing suit weather. Barry. We appreciate you, Thank you very much.

Barry Red Holts, founder and CEO of Holt's Wealth Management.

Barry Red Holts, founder and CEO of Holt's Wealth Management.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Let's get it right to our next guest. Macunda, has been kind enough to chat with us over the last several months give us his thoughts on what's happening down in Washington, DC. He's a professor at the Yale School of Management. Qualtam, Thanks so much for joining us here. You just know you listen to President Trump makes some comments here. What are your initial thoughts here of these first several days of President Trump's second administration.

Let's get it right to our next guest. Macunda, has been kind enough to chat with us over the last several months give us his thoughts on what's happening down in Washington, DC. He's a professor at the Yale School of Management. Qualtam, Thanks so much for joining us here. You just know you listen to President Trump makes some comments here. What are your initial thoughts here of these first several days of President Trump's second administration.

Here, as he hits the ground seemingly for running, Yeah.

Here, as he hits the ground seemingly for running, Yeah.

I mean it's a mixture. He's definitely hitting the ground running in some ways. So there's some element of the rhetorical gestures that don't kind of mean a lot and are characteristically Trumpian. Right, He's renaming the Gulf of Mexico and the Mount Mount Mount Denali and things like that.

I mean it's a mixture. He's definitely hitting the ground running in some ways. So there's some element of the rhetorical gestures that don't kind of mean a lot and are characteristically Trumpian. Right, He's renaming the Gulf of Mexico and the Mount Mount Mount Denali and things like that.

Okay, fine, I mean whatever.

Okay, fine, I mean whatever.

There are a bunch of executive orders, some of which are pretty standard, some of which are not necessarily what they seem. The one on tariffs, for examples, basically says that the Secretary of Commerce will consult, which isn't.

There are a bunch of executive orders, some of which are pretty standard, some of which are not necessarily what they seem. The one on tariffs, for examples, basically says that the Secretary of Commerce will consult, which isn't.

The same thing as levying them massively.

The same thing as levying them massively.

So we'll see what happens on that next And then there's a bunch of stuff that is going to do a lot of long term damage, but the effects may not be seen right away. The United States withdrawing from the World Health Organization. I think we had a pretty dramatic example quite recently about the importance of global public health. So you know, we might worry about the effects of that, the US pulling out of climate change agreements. Those things are going to do a lot of harm, but it may not be perceptible in the next year or two, or even the next four or five years. That might be a problem for the.

So we'll see what happens on that next And then there's a bunch of stuff that is going to do a lot of long term damage, but the effects may not be seen right away. The United States withdrawing from the World Health Organization. I think we had a pretty dramatic example quite recently about the importance of global public health. So you know, we might worry about the effects of that, the US pulling out of climate change agreements. Those things are going to do a lot of harm, but it may not be perceptible in the next year or two, or even the next four or five years. That might be a problem for the.

Successor exactly, which brought me to mind.

Successor exactly, which brought me to mind.

It brings me to my next question, and we were talking about this earlier, is what is a sequencing because that matters, right if you have deregulation and you have tax cuts, that's obviously going to be positive. It feels like the equity market's really focused on that versus say, the tariff issue, which could come actually earlier maybe than we think, but it has doesn't have a lot of clarity what's your sequencing modeling.

It brings me to my next question, and we were talking about this earlier, is what is a sequencing because that matters, right if you have deregulation and you have tax cuts, that's obviously going to be positive. It feels like the equity market's really focused on that versus say, the tariff issue, which could come actually earlier maybe than we think, but it has doesn't have a lot of clarity what's your sequencing modeling.

So the sequencing a lot depends on the Republican Congress and the Republican Caucus in the House, which at the moment is sitting on a one seat margin. So the you know, herting cats is easy compared to what they're going to try to do here, and in particular, the tax cussings like all that is also going to get revolve around the debt ceiling increase, which will almost certainly need democratic health. So there are going to be some significant tax cuts that will be slanted towards corporations the wealthy. There's going to be massive regulation deregulation in ways that will be very, very favorable to corporate interest, like that is an inevitability with Trump. But the sequencing is completely got in the air and depends on you know, getting every essentially every single Republican member of Congress degree on a policy agenda.

So the sequencing a lot depends on the Republican Congress and the Republican Caucus in the House, which at the moment is sitting on a one seat margin. So the you know, herting cats is easy compared to what they're going to try to do here, and in particular, the tax cussings like all that is also going to get revolve around the debt ceiling increase, which will almost certainly need democratic health. So there are going to be some significant tax cuts that will be slanted towards corporations the wealthy. There's going to be massive regulation deregulation in ways that will be very, very favorable to corporate interest, like that is an inevitability with Trump. But the sequencing is completely got in the air and depends on you know, getting every essentially every single Republican member of Congress degree on a policy agenda.

Good luck.

Good luck.

I'd rather know if somebody offered me that job, I wouldn't want to take it.

I'd rather know if somebody offered me that job, I wouldn't want to take it.

Well, I'm one of the I guess one of the more near term issues that needs to be addressed by the Trump administrations getting some of their cabinet nominees confirmed They've made some major headway with Secretary Rubio, but still some contentious ones to come with mister Hegseth, RFK Junior, Tolca Gabbard to name three.

Well, I'm one of the I guess one of the more near term issues that needs to be addressed by the Trump administrations getting some of their cabinet nominees confirmed They've made some major headway with Secretary Rubio, but still some contentious ones to come with mister Hegseth, RFK Junior, Tolca Gabbard to name three.

How do you expect this to play out?

How do you expect this to play out?

Yeah, So Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have said that they're not voting for Pete Haggseth, so we're basically down to they'd have to lose two more Republican senators. The most likely person to flip at this point is Mitch McConnell. After that, I don't really see a fourth. So my guess is he's going to get all of these people through.

Yeah, So Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have said that they're not voting for Pete Haggseth, so we're basically down to they'd have to lose two more Republican senators. The most likely person to flip at this point is Mitch McConnell. After that, I don't really see a fourth. So my guess is he's going to get all of these people through.

And that I mean.

And that I mean.

In particular you think about Hegseth governed to a lesser extent, but Cash Battel of the FBI. These are people for whom there is no argument that these are people who should be running the use agencies right.

In particular you think about Hegseth governed to a lesser extent, but Cash Battel of the FBI. These are people for whom there is no argument that these are people who should be running the use agencies right.

That there is no sense that they're qualified to do so.

That there is no sense that they're qualified to do so.

There is nothing in their background that makes it seem like they'll be stuff the idea that Pete Hegseth, who was fired for mismanagement at two different tiny nonprofits, is capable of running the largest bureaucracy on the face of the planet. I mean, if you actually right, if you said that you actually care about the qualifications, people that start laughing, right, Like the idea, it's just absurd. And so putting these people in seems a lot more about being willing to use the organs of the felt government to in, you know, for domestic political purposes, or even to go after Trump's enemies than it is some sense that like cash, fattel of all people on earth is when you can make the FBI a lean, mean crime fighting machine.

There is nothing in their background that makes it seem like they'll be stuff the idea that Pete Hegseth, who was fired for mismanagement at two different tiny nonprofits, is capable of running the largest bureaucracy on the face of the planet. I mean, if you actually right, if you said that you actually care about the qualifications, people that start laughing, right, Like the idea, it's just absurd. And so putting these people in seems a lot more about being willing to use the organs of the felt government to in, you know, for domestic political purposes, or even to go after Trump's enemies than it is some sense that like cash, fattel of all people on earth is when you can make the FBI a lean, mean crime fighting machine.

Well, I mean, yeah, the counter argument is new blood.

Well, I mean, yeah, the counter argument is new blood.

Maybe that's let's get some of the you know, get some new blood downwashed in dc new ways of thinking.

Maybe that's let's get some of the you know, get some new blood downwashed in dc new ways of thinking.

So I really.

So I really.

Appreciate you saying that, because that is what both my first two books were about, right, the virtues of new blood and the advantages of bringing people in. So you will find no one on earth who's more positive about the ideas that you can bring in new thinking and make new changes than me.

Appreciate you saying that, because that is what both my first two books were about, right, the virtues of new blood and the advantages of bringing people in. So you will find no one on earth who's more positive about the ideas that you can bring in new thinking and make new changes than me.

I believe that. But right, not all changes are good.

I believe that. But right, not all changes are good.

There's a famous the famous thing soldiers and politicians logic, you know, we must do something, this is something, therefore we must do this right, And that's not right, there are many, many more ways to break an institution than to fix it. And if you look at the Pentagon, no institution needs massive reform more than the Pentagon. And if you need it to do that, you would ask, say, you know, I'm someone who had deep expertise and running a major procurement program or someone.

There's a famous the famous thing soldiers and politicians logic, you know, we must do something, this is something, therefore we must do this right, And that's not right, there are many, many more ways to break an institution than to fix it. And if you look at the Pentagon, no institution needs massive reform more than the Pentagon. And if you need it to do that, you would ask, say, you know, I'm someone who had deep expertise and running a major procurement program or someone.

Who had really understood the federal bureaucracy.

Who had really understood the federal bureaucracy.

You would not get someone who had, you know, essentially was fired for mismanagement from their for last two joints. Right, if you were running if Apple, if Apple said they were going to replace Tim Cook with someone like that, you might say, well, Apple could use some fresh thinking, but I'm not sure that's where the fresh thinking.

You would not get someone who had, you know, essentially was fired for mismanagement from their for last two joints. Right, if you were running if Apple, if Apple said they were going to replace Tim Cook with someone like that, you might say, well, Apple could use some fresh thinking, but I'm not sure that's where the fresh thinking.

Is likely to come from.

Is likely to come from.

Okay, well fresh me decide. Doge is obviously front and center too. We saw the Vekwamaswami leaving Doge to maybe govern for governor, the lawyer apparently leaving dough She was there for like what seventy two hours? What are you making on all of these headlines?

Okay, well fresh me decide. Doge is obviously front and center too. We saw the Vekwamaswami leaving Doge to maybe govern for governor, the lawyer apparently leaving dough She was there for like what seventy two hours? What are you making on all of these headlines?

So the real thing that it was that happened, and you know, and it is a real distinction between the first Trump administration the second Trump administration is the second one seems to be a lot more bureaucratically competent. And so what they essentially did was repurpose the Federal Digital Service, which was created in response to the you know, the Obama Care web page fiasco, to improve the technical capabilities of the federal government. They repurpose that into DOGE, which gives DOGE access to essentially all the non classified information in the federal government, gives it in every It is a brilliant bureaucratic move, and it suggests that DOGE may actually have a lot more impact on the government than we had originally thought it would when it first started looking like kind of a you know, essentially a committee that was an issue a report.

So the real thing that it was that happened, and you know, and it is a real distinction between the first Trump administration the second Trump administration is the second one seems to be a lot more bureaucratically competent. And so what they essentially did was repurpose the Federal Digital Service, which was created in response to the you know, the Obama Care web page fiasco, to improve the technical capabilities of the federal government. They repurpose that into DOGE, which gives DOGE access to essentially all the non classified information in the federal government, gives it in every It is a brilliant bureaucratic move, and it suggests that DOGE may actually have a lot more impact on the government than we had originally thought it would when it first started looking like kind of a you know, essentially a committee that was an issue a report.

The problem there again is.

The problem there again is.

Going back is what we just saw, for example, is a communications freeze. For example at NIH, so NIHS stopped reviewing all grants, they've stopped working with all scientists. NIH is the foundation for basically all biomedical research, not just in the United States, but really in the entire world.

Going back is what we just saw, for example, is a communications freeze. For example at NIH, so NIHS stopped reviewing all grants, they've stopped working with all scientists. NIH is the foundation for basically all biomedical research, not just in the United States, but really in the entire world.

It spends forty seven and.

It spends forty seven and.

A half billion dollars a year, and biomedical research in the world, things that we rely on to cure diseases just doesn't happen without anih. That kind of a freeze does real meaningful harm to scientific research for every day that it goes on, and it seems to have an is quite propriciously without even any sort of explanation as to why we're doing this or how it makes sense. So that kind of thing is where if those does things like that, I'd be pretty concerned, as opposed to, you know, optimistic where the massive federal government reforms will all overview.

A half billion dollars a year, and biomedical research in the world, things that we rely on to cure diseases just doesn't happen without anih. That kind of a freeze does real meaningful harm to scientific research for every day that it goes on, and it seems to have an is quite propriciously without even any sort of explanation as to why we're doing this or how it makes sense. So that kind of thing is where if those does things like that, I'd be pretty concerned, as opposed to, you know, optimistic where the massive federal government reforms will all overview.

Yep, all right, wewtam, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

Yep, all right, wewtam, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

Gout Themconda, Professor at the Yale School of Management.

Gout Themconda, Professor at the Yale School of Management.

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal