Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

So the headline's coming fast and furious from everywhere when it comes to political risk.

So the headline's coming fast and furious from everywhere when it comes to political risk.

Joining us now is Nathan Dean.

Joining us now is Nathan Dean.

He's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy a list Nathan, what is the rhetoric that we're going to see out of the White House this afternoon based on now Canada putting tariffs on US deal on aluminum and the EU threatening retaliation as well.

He's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy a list Nathan, what is the rhetoric that we're going to see out of the White House this afternoon based on now Canada putting tariffs on US deal on aluminum and the EU threatening retaliation as well.

I think it's going to.

I think it's going to.

Be very similar to the truth social posts that we saw from yesterday from President Trump and responding to the Ontario premiere Doug Ford in terms of those tariffs or at least the export taxes that they was putting on electricity to those one point five million Americans up in Minnesota and New York, you know, And I think this is what you're gonna wait and you're gonna see this exactly the same thing coming from EU, because look, you know, we've always been telling our clients. When it comes to tariffs, President Trump goes out there with these big statements and that subsequently walks them back negotiates, and that doesn't really see the fruition. However, over the last few days, we begin to see that the you know, the small incremental tariffs take place, the twenty percent tariff on China, you know, the medals, the aluminum and steel tariffs on Canada just yesterday. So these tariffs are now coming into fruition. And so I think the writeric is going to continue. But we always have to just go back to the idea that there's one person that decides whether these tariffs happen or not. It's President Trump. So you always have to just keep your mind open that he could potentially walk some.

Be very similar to the truth social posts that we saw from yesterday from President Trump and responding to the Ontario premiere Doug Ford in terms of those tariffs or at least the export taxes that they was putting on electricity to those one point five million Americans up in Minnesota and New York, you know, And I think this is what you're gonna wait and you're gonna see this exactly the same thing coming from EU, because look, you know, we've always been telling our clients. When it comes to tariffs, President Trump goes out there with these big statements and that subsequently walks them back negotiates, and that doesn't really see the fruition. However, over the last few days, we begin to see that the you know, the small incremental tariffs take place, the twenty percent tariff on China, you know, the medals, the aluminum and steel tariffs on Canada just yesterday. So these tariffs are now coming into fruition. And so I think the writeric is going to continue. But we always have to just go back to the idea that there's one person that decides whether these tariffs happen or not. It's President Trump. So you always have to just keep your mind open that he could potentially walk some.

Of this back.

Of this back.

I've asked this before, I'll ask it again, And now now it's on this issue of taris where are the Democrats?

I've asked this before, I'll ask it again, And now now it's on this issue of taris where are the Democrats?

Who's the voice?

Who's the voice?

Yeah, so they're still trying to figure out their voice.

Yeah, so they're still trying to figure out their voice.

I mean, obviously there's been a lot of push in terms of from House Democrat trying to tell their Senate colleagues that they should vote no on this government funding bill that's making its way through Congress, in response to DOJE, in response to tariffs, just in response to President Trump's agenda. The Senate Democrats are actually meeting today. They have to figure it out. There's going to need to be eight votes for the Democrats on Friday, because Senator Ran Paul is going to vote no.

I mean, obviously there's been a lot of push in terms of from House Democrat trying to tell their Senate colleagues that they should vote no on this government funding bill that's making its way through Congress, in response to DOJE, in response to tariffs, just in response to President Trump's agenda. The Senate Democrats are actually meeting today. They have to figure it out. There's going to need to be eight votes for the Democrats on Friday, because Senator Ran Paul is going to vote no.

Otherwise we're going to risk a government shutdown.

Otherwise we're going to risk a government shutdown.

And I just do not think the Senate Democrats have a strategy yet in place that warrants what their response to President Trump will be. And as a result, you know, a lot of the news cycle continues to be dominated by President Trump and his actions.

And I just do not think the Senate Democrats have a strategy yet in place that warrants what their response to President Trump will be. And as a result, you know, a lot of the news cycle continues to be dominated by President Trump and his actions.

I have to say, the fact that we could have a government shutdown has not at all been on my radar. That seems like the least thing, the last thing we got to worry about here when it comes to being a market participant.

I have to say, the fact that we could have a government shutdown has not at all been on my radar. That seems like the least thing, the last thing we got to worry about here when it comes to being a market participant.

So no, like, where are we though, will it shut down? Are we good?

So no, like, where are we though, will it shut down? Are we good?

Well?

Well?

Your view is absolutely correct from the mindset of those who pay attention to the markets, because when it comes to government shutdowns, there's very little impact to markets. I mean, the thirty five days cut down that occurred under President Trump's first administration, markets went down and then subsequently came back up. But where we are at the moment is yesterday the House Republicans passed a bill. It's not a clean bill, but a clean ish bill, mostly clean but has a lot of things in their Democrats don't like. But what Speaker Johnson did is he said, look, we've passed the bill.

Your view is absolutely correct from the mindset of those who pay attention to the markets, because when it comes to government shutdowns, there's very little impact to markets. I mean, the thirty five days cut down that occurred under President Trump's first administration, markets went down and then subsequently came back up. But where we are at the moment is yesterday the House Republicans passed a bill. It's not a clean bill, but a clean ish bill, mostly clean but has a lot of things in their Democrats don't like. But what Speaker Johnson did is he said, look, we've passed the bill.

He sent the House home, everybody left town.

He sent the House home, everybody left town.

So now it's up to the Senate Democrats to decide are we going to support this bill or are we going to risk shutting the government down. And because the House is gone, a shutdown will most likely occur. I think the Senate Democrats will ultimately take the deal. I maybe out of consensus, out of that, but I just do not think that the Senate Democrats right now are aligned on their strategy. And just as a few minutes ago, Representative Alexandria Acasio Cortez was tweeting out that people should be calling the Senate Dems because it looks like, in her words, they're going to start the cave. So I don't think the government's going to shut down. But again, for those people who pay attention to the markets, there's really no impact here. I mean, short term shutdown really even doesn't impact the equities like large defense contractors.

So now it's up to the Senate Democrats to decide are we going to support this bill or are we going to risk shutting the government down. And because the House is gone, a shutdown will most likely occur. I think the Senate Democrats will ultimately take the deal. I maybe out of consensus, out of that, but I just do not think that the Senate Democrats right now are aligned on their strategy. And just as a few minutes ago, Representative Alexandria Acasio Cortez was tweeting out that people should be calling the Senate Dems because it looks like, in her words, they're going to start the cave. So I don't think the government's going to shut down. But again, for those people who pay attention to the markets, there's really no impact here. I mean, short term shutdown really even doesn't impact the equities like large defense contractors.

What's the sense of timing, Nathan, When will we get a decision on a potential shutdown or what the Senate's going to do.

What's the sense of timing, Nathan, When will we get a decision on a potential shutdown or what the Senate's going to do.

I think tonight you'll start to see the comments from the Democratic senators giving indication of their position. You know, Senator John Fennerman has already come out and said he's going to vote for the bill. But all these other a lot of the other moderate Democrats who potentially could vote for this or keeping their powder dry, They're essentially saying, look, it's a choice of two bad choices President Trump's agenda, or we risk shutting the government down. But I don't think the Democrats are going to try and surprise this by Friday. I think we'll know either by late tonight or early tomorrow where they're going, because look, at the end of the day, it's not an easy choice for them, and the last thing they want, I think, in my opinion, is to surprise everybody and just say we haven't been saying anything for days and then oop, weights we're we're not gonna vote for this, but you know, anything can happen. We're in You know, these are times that a lot of people don't know what's going to happen.

I think tonight you'll start to see the comments from the Democratic senators giving indication of their position. You know, Senator John Fennerman has already come out and said he's going to vote for the bill. But all these other a lot of the other moderate Democrats who potentially could vote for this or keeping their powder dry, They're essentially saying, look, it's a choice of two bad choices President Trump's agenda, or we risk shutting the government down. But I don't think the Democrats are going to try and surprise this by Friday. I think we'll know either by late tonight or early tomorrow where they're going, because look, at the end of the day, it's not an easy choice for them, and the last thing they want, I think, in my opinion, is to surprise everybody and just say we haven't been saying anything for days and then oop, weights we're we're not gonna vote for this, but you know, anything can happen. We're in You know, these are times that a lot of people don't know what's going to happen.

What okay, let me say something crazy.

What okay, let me say something crazy.

What I found really interesting was that we had Ontario putting a REFFS on hydro power right, and then all of a sudden moments later, like a day later, it was taken off. And then now the negotiation has started to happen between Ontario and the US.

What I found really interesting was that we had Ontario putting a REFFS on hydro power right, and then all of a sudden moments later, like a day later, it was taken off. And then now the negotiation has started to happen between Ontario and the US.

What do we make of that.

What do we make of that.

Like do we make of the fact that, like any retaliatory tariffs won't have any teeth because it's all a negotiating ploy, and that Trump is going to get them to the table no matter what.

Like do we make of the fact that, like any retaliatory tariffs won't have any teeth because it's all a negotiating ploy, and that Trump is going to get them to the table no matter what.

Well, you know, I'll say, look, that's the primary objective is to get them to the table and to negotiate. But also if you look at the Canadian steel and aluminum tariffs, you know President Trump's truth social statement said look, we're going to fifty percent. Subsequently we're now at twenty five percent, so that tariff did actually take place. But you know, this process I think continues exactly how it's been for the last few months. President Trump puts out a statement, says we're going to do this, markets react to it, there's a negotiation, sometimes just hours later it's walked back, and there's additional open doors and additional nuggets that says, maybe this isn't going to happen, but in crementally tariffs are being put on place, that twenty percent tariff on China, for example. So you know, if investors have not already looked at the supply chain aspects of the companies that they're looking at, they need to do so now because we can't say with one hundred percent certainty that these tariffs aren't going to happen. So investors need to be prepared for that supply chain disruption or the tariff hit as a result of it.

Well, you know, I'll say, look, that's the primary objective is to get them to the table and to negotiate. But also if you look at the Canadian steel and aluminum tariffs, you know President Trump's truth social statement said look, we're going to fifty percent. Subsequently we're now at twenty five percent, so that tariff did actually take place. But you know, this process I think continues exactly how it's been for the last few months. President Trump puts out a statement, says we're going to do this, markets react to it, there's a negotiation, sometimes just hours later it's walked back, and there's additional open doors and additional nuggets that says, maybe this isn't going to happen, but in crementally tariffs are being put on place, that twenty percent tariff on China, for example. So you know, if investors have not already looked at the supply chain aspects of the companies that they're looking at, they need to do so now because we can't say with one hundred percent certainty that these tariffs aren't going to happen. So investors need to be prepared for that supply chain disruption or the tariff hit as a result of it.

All Right, Nathan, let's be a glass half full type of view here and say the government will not shut down. What are the next couple of things on Congresses to do list?

All Right, Nathan, let's be a glass half full type of view here and say the government will not shut down. What are the next couple of things on Congresses to do list?

Do you think, Well, you know, Speaker Johnson is really trying to push forward with this House Reconciliation package to extend President Trump's tax cuts. This was going to cost around four point five trillion dollars to extend those.

Do you think, Well, you know, Speaker Johnson is really trying to push forward with this House Reconciliation package to extend President Trump's tax cuts. This was going to cost around four point five trillion dollars to extend those.

Now they have to do it by the end of the year.

Now they have to do it by the end of the year.

If a government does shut down, nobody's allowed to work on that, and so the Republicans not be able to work on that until the government reopens. Now, assuming the government reopens, Speaker Johnson even just said this morning that he hopes for all of this to be.

If a government does shut down, nobody's allowed to work on that, and so the Republicans not be able to work on that until the government reopens. Now, assuming the government reopens, Speaker Johnson even just said this morning that he hopes for all of this to be.

Resolved by men.

Resolved by men.

I'm not exactly sure that they're going to be able to get there, because even though the Republicans were unified yesterday in terms of keeping the government open in terms of a budget, it was only a six month continuing resolution, and it was a Cleanish bill. That's much different than asking New York State Republicans are you going to support not giving much in terms of salt.

I'm not exactly sure that they're going to be able to get there, because even though the Republicans were unified yesterday in terms of keeping the government open in terms of a budget, it was only a six month continuing resolution, and it was a Cleanish bill. That's much different than asking New York State Republicans are you going to support not giving much in terms of salt.

Relief, or asking other folks are you going to.

Relief, or asking other folks are you going to.

Support taxes on tips which potentially could drive the deficit even higher.

Support taxes on tips which potentially could drive the deficit even higher.

So the Republicans have to figure out.

So the Republicans have to figure out.

Because there's no Democrats involved in this, the Republicans are going to have to have some very strong and powerful conversations. And I'm not exactly sure that's going to take place in May. I think that's going to bleed throughout the summer. But that work will continue next week, assuming the government stays open again.

Because there's no Democrats involved in this, the Republicans are going to have to have some very strong and powerful conversations. And I'm not exactly sure that's going to take place in May. I think that's going to bleed throughout the summer. But that work will continue next week, assuming the government stays open again.

I was just at an energy conference in Houston for a couple of days, and the theme is that CEOs are really confused. People are not pulling projects, but they're definitely pressing the pause button on many many things.

I was just at an energy conference in Houston for a couple of days, and the theme is that CEOs are really confused. People are not pulling projects, but they're definitely pressing the pause button on many many things.

Is the administration listening to CEOs?

Is the administration listening to CEOs?

I think so.

I think so.

I mean, obviously, the President Trump met with the Business Roundtable yesterday. This is a collection of large CEOs from you know, Fortune five hundred companies, and you know, we heard the reporting that that was the message that President Trump gave. But I would also say that President Trump is very very much a believer in his strategy at the moment, and I don't think there's much of the business community is going to be able to.

I mean, obviously, the President Trump met with the Business Roundtable yesterday. This is a collection of large CEOs from you know, Fortune five hundred companies, and you know, we heard the reporting that that was the message that President Trump gave. But I would also say that President Trump is very very much a believer in his strategy at the moment, and I don't think there's much of the business community is going to be able to.

Say to change his mind.

Say to change his mind.

I think that it has to come from sticker shock from prices, because prices are what got drove a lot of voters to President Trump in the November elections, and prices is something that a lot of American consumers, especially Americans that don't have access to the markets, that don't have assets in the markets, want to see from President Trump. And so I think that price discussion, as we'll see over the next few months, is what ultimately may change President Trump's mind. But then again, you also liked seeing the stock market in the green, so you know, again, it's just it's very hard to predict.

I think that it has to come from sticker shock from prices, because prices are what got drove a lot of voters to President Trump in the November elections, and prices is something that a lot of American consumers, especially Americans that don't have access to the markets, that don't have assets in the markets, want to see from President Trump. And so I think that price discussion, as we'll see over the next few months, is what ultimately may change President Trump's mind. But then again, you also liked seeing the stock market in the green, so you know, again, it's just it's very hard to predict.

Did we get any meaningful news out of that meeting yesterday with the business leaders Nathan Now, not.

Did we get any meaningful news out of that meeting yesterday with the business leaders Nathan Now, not.

That I would say to any of my clients.

That I would say to any of my clients.

I think it was just more of the same that you know, business leaders were saying, Look, we're looking for deregulation. Deregulation is not a magic wand it's going to take time. I think there was a lot of sentiment around the election around deregulation. They're looking for clarity on tariffs. I don't think you're going to get that. I think the strategy of strong statements subsequently with negotiations, and then they're looking for clarity on this tax debate, and you know the problem with that is that it's just going to take a long time because you know, they have to figure out how to pay for a four point five trillion in tax scuts or they have to figure out a way to keep it as less impactful on the deficit as possible. And so I don't think there was a lot of clarity coming from the White House to the business leadership. I think it was business leadership talking points going to the White House.

I think it was just more of the same that you know, business leaders were saying, Look, we're looking for deregulation. Deregulation is not a magic wand it's going to take time. I think there was a lot of sentiment around the election around deregulation. They're looking for clarity on tariffs. I don't think you're going to get that. I think the strategy of strong statements subsequently with negotiations, and then they're looking for clarity on this tax debate, and you know the problem with that is that it's just going to take a long time because you know, they have to figure out how to pay for a four point five trillion in tax scuts or they have to figure out a way to keep it as less impactful on the deficit as possible. And so I don't think there was a lot of clarity coming from the White House to the business leadership. I think it was business leadership talking points going to the White House.

How much do you think all this is currently reflected in the equity prices are in equity prices.

How much do you think all this is currently reflected in the equity prices are in equity prices.

I think it's beginning to be a little bit more and more. I mean, because I think the realization is like, look, this isn't exactly turning out the way that I think a lot of investors thought after the election in terms of sentiment, you know, the tariff discussion. I think a lot of people have presumed that President Trump was going to back down on it, and look, he may, but President Trump is certainly asking some very difficult questions of the market when it says, look, starting tonight at midnight, I'm putting on a fifty percent tariff and then two hours later saying no, maybe not, We're going to negotiate instead.

I think it's beginning to be a little bit more and more. I mean, because I think the realization is like, look, this isn't exactly turning out the way that I think a lot of investors thought after the election in terms of sentiment, you know, the tariff discussion. I think a lot of people have presumed that President Trump was going to back down on it, and look, he may, but President Trump is certainly asking some very difficult questions of the market when it says, look, starting tonight at midnight, I'm putting on a fifty percent tariff and then two hours later saying no, maybe not, We're going to negotiate instead.

Markets don't like that.

Markets don't like that.

So I think what we're seeing right now is just this uncertainty and per your point about you know, pausing a lot of projects, I think a lot of investors are just saying, look, we need clarity on what's going to happen here, otherwise we're going to begin to really try and protect our positions.

So I think what we're seeing right now is just this uncertainty and per your point about you know, pausing a lot of projects, I think a lot of investors are just saying, look, we need clarity on what's going to happen here, otherwise we're going to begin to really try and protect our positions.

They're not there yet. But if this uncertainty in.

They're not there yet. But if this uncertainty in.

This like you know, volatility continues from the political landscape, I wouldn't be surprised if you know, my investors react in a different way in the.

This like you know, volatility continues from the political landscape, I wouldn't be surprised if you know, my investors react in a different way in the.

Next few weeks.

Next few weeks.

Nathan, thanks so much. We appreciate that Nathan Dean are man of reason. Nowt there in Washington, d C helps us understand some of these policy moves coming out of Washington, DC. Nathan Dean, senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us from Washington, d C.

Nathan, thanks so much. We appreciate that Nathan Dean are man of reason. Nowt there in Washington, d C helps us understand some of these policy moves coming out of Washington, DC. Nathan Dean, senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us from Washington, d C.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live days at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Be broadcast to you live for Interactive Brooks Studio right here in Midtown Manhattan. You can also check us out on YouTube dot com as well. All Right, yesterday, the US and Ukraine have reached a thirty day seaspire with Russia now it hinges on Russia's acceptance. While speaking to reporters at the White House, President Trump addressed that deal.

Be broadcast to you live for Interactive Brooks Studio right here in Midtown Manhattan. You can also check us out on YouTube dot com as well. All Right, yesterday, the US and Ukraine have reached a thirty day seaspire with Russia now it hinges on Russia's acceptance. While speaking to reporters at the White House, President Trump addressed that deal.

Saying it's now up to Russia to agree.

Saying it's now up to Russia to agree.

Your friends agreed to it, and hopefully Russia.

Your friends agreed to it, and hopefully Russia.

Will agree to it.

Will agree to it.

We're going to beat with them later on today and tomorrow.

We're going to beat with them later on today and tomorrow.

And hopefully we'll be able to wipe out a deal, but I think the CEASPI is very important.

And hopefully we'll be able to wipe out a deal, but I think the CEASPI is very important.

If we can get Russia to do it, that'll be.

If we can get Russia to do it, that'll be.

Greaty All right, joining us now is Oliver Krook, Bloomberg Gear correspondent on these talks. He joins us from Berlin. All right, Oliver, what do we know? What is the state of play?

Greaty All right, joining us now is Oliver Krook, Bloomberg Gear correspondent on these talks. He joins us from Berlin. All right, Oliver, what do we know? What is the state of play?

Yeah, so listen, it's is ceasfire agreement.

Yeah, so listen, it's is ceasfire agreement.

We should just say cannot be agreed to by only sort of one set of parties. But we should say that the Youans now finally got on board, and that is not what they wanted to do even two weeks ago. Right, we were hearing from Zelensky in a number of top Ukrainian officials before that massive blow up in the Oval Office, saying that basically they do not want to come to a conversation about a ceasefire. They want to come to a conversation about the lasting just peace. That obviously changed after the United States posit its military equipment deliveries to Ukraine, stopped giving them intelligence, all that sort of thing that kicked off last week. And now they've come at the table and it sounds like they have agreed with the United States after those talks in Saudi Arabia with Secretary of State Mark Rubio to that thirty day seaspire. The US sees this as basically trying to create the conditions under which you can negotiate that permanent peace agreement. This thirty day seaspire would also include an exchange of prisoners of war, release of civilian detainees, the return of the forcibly transferred Ukrainian children, and really to put together these negotiating teams which haven't obviously had any contact between Russia and Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and that has led to the immediate resumption now of the un of American military kit to Ukraine as well as intelligence. And you know, it has been just basically the United States and Ukraine. And now, as you were just saying, you know, basically everything is in Putin's court right now as to whether or not he's going to even entertain these discussions.

We should just say cannot be agreed to by only sort of one set of parties. But we should say that the Youans now finally got on board, and that is not what they wanted to do even two weeks ago. Right, we were hearing from Zelensky in a number of top Ukrainian officials before that massive blow up in the Oval Office, saying that basically they do not want to come to a conversation about a ceasefire. They want to come to a conversation about the lasting just peace. That obviously changed after the United States posit its military equipment deliveries to Ukraine, stopped giving them intelligence, all that sort of thing that kicked off last week. And now they've come at the table and it sounds like they have agreed with the United States after those talks in Saudi Arabia with Secretary of State Mark Rubio to that thirty day seaspire. The US sees this as basically trying to create the conditions under which you can negotiate that permanent peace agreement. This thirty day seaspire would also include an exchange of prisoners of war, release of civilian detainees, the return of the forcibly transferred Ukrainian children, and really to put together these negotiating teams which haven't obviously had any contact between Russia and Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and that has led to the immediate resumption now of the un of American military kit to Ukraine as well as intelligence. And you know, it has been just basically the United States and Ukraine. And now, as you were just saying, you know, basically everything is in Putin's court right now as to whether or not he's going to even entertain these discussions.

And to that end, Oliver Bloomberg News has some reporting out that Putin eyes way to truce terms, but with his own conditions.

And to that end, Oliver Bloomberg News has some reporting out that Putin eyes way to truce terms, but with his own conditions.

I'm not really sure what that means.

I'm not really sure what that means.

So maybe the broad question is a do we think Putin's going to engage in this process right here now, with this agreement, and what did we think he wants.

So maybe the broad question is a do we think Putin's going to engage in this process right here now, with this agreement, and what did we think he wants.

I suspect not just right here and now.

I suspect not just right here and now.

I mean I think that forever, since the beginning of this war, for the last three years, time has been on the side of the Russians, So they have really in no rush, particularly since they've sort of gained momentum on the battlefield.

I mean I think that forever, since the beginning of this war, for the last three years, time has been on the side of the Russians, So they have really in no rush, particularly since they've sort of gained momentum on the battlefield.

Again.

Again.

That could mean a great many things. We've heard a number of things from the Russians. They have said a number of things that are basically non starters. They want to take basically all of the eastern regions of Ukraine, so that's lu Hansk, Donetsk, Zaporisha, and Kurzon. These are not even territories that they fully occupy right now. So this would mean even further concessions. They would want legal recognition of that. They would want Ukraine to basically abandon its aims.

That could mean a great many things. We've heard a number of things from the Russians. They have said a number of things that are basically non starters. They want to take basically all of the eastern regions of Ukraine, so that's lu Hansk, Donetsk, Zaporisha, and Kurzon. These are not even territories that they fully occupy right now. So this would mean even further concessions. They would want legal recognition of that. They would want Ukraine to basically abandon its aims.

To join NATO.

To join NATO.

They would say that also European troops a sort of deterrent or peacekeeping forces with Ukraine are non starter. So these are all things that the Russians have said in the past that they basically are non starters to any sort of agreement that begs the question of what really is in the interest of the Ukrainians or is this just going to be basically a pretense for the Americans to abandon Ukraine if they say, you know, they basically cannot surmount the terms. What I think is interesting and this was probably the most interesting thing we got out of the press conference for Marco Rubio yesterday, saying that basically they hope that the Russians will sign the deal, but if they do not, they'll know who the impediment to peace will be. That then provokes this question, and we don't really know the answer to this from the Trump administration.

They would say that also European troops a sort of deterrent or peacekeeping forces with Ukraine are non starter. So these are all things that the Russians have said in the past that they basically are non starters to any sort of agreement that begs the question of what really is in the interest of the Ukrainians or is this just going to be basically a pretense for the Americans to abandon Ukraine if they say, you know, they basically cannot surmount the terms. What I think is interesting and this was probably the most interesting thing we got out of the press conference for Marco Rubio yesterday, saying that basically they hope that the Russians will sign the deal, but if they do not, they'll know who the impediment to peace will be. That then provokes this question, and we don't really know the answer to this from the Trump administration.

If the Russians refused to come to the table and.

If the Russians refused to come to the table and.

The United States is dissatisfied about.

The United States is dissatisfied about.

It, what is Trump prepared to do about it.

It, what is Trump prepared to do about it.

We've had some talk about potential financial market regulations and potentially sanctions on banks and finance as well as fossil fuels. We haven't really fleshed out that side of things. We know the sort of the difficult circumstances they're willing to impose on Ukraine, but less so what they're willing to impose upon Russia.

We've had some talk about potential financial market regulations and potentially sanctions on banks and finance as well as fossil fuels. We haven't really fleshed out that side of things. We know the sort of the difficult circumstances they're willing to impose on Ukraine, but less so what they're willing to impose upon Russia.

Does Europe have a seat at this particular.

Does Europe have a seat at this particular.

Table, emphatically not so.

Table, emphatically not so.

I think the best that the Europeans can basically hope for US to get kind of an update at the G seven Foreign ministers meetings that's happening right now in Canada. But basically, no, they do not have a seat at the table as it stands. I mean, I think that the US's plan, what they would like to see longer term is the Europeans to take more security responsibility, obviously in the continent, possibly in Ukraine. But again, this is a very thorny discretion even for the most hawkish voices within Europe. You hear it from the Polish, they are very reticent to ever commit any kind of troops, even as peacekeeping forces within Ukraine. So that is sort of a very difficult conversation have even nationally. So I think that their sort of role in this has been sort of ever diminishing, and I think, I suspect is not going to increase anytime soon.

I think the best that the Europeans can basically hope for US to get kind of an update at the G seven Foreign ministers meetings that's happening right now in Canada. But basically, no, they do not have a seat at the table as it stands. I mean, I think that the US's plan, what they would like to see longer term is the Europeans to take more security responsibility, obviously in the continent, possibly in Ukraine. But again, this is a very thorny discretion even for the most hawkish voices within Europe. You hear it from the Polish, they are very reticent to ever commit any kind of troops, even as peacekeeping forces within Ukraine. So that is sort of a very difficult conversation have even nationally. So I think that their sort of role in this has been sort of ever diminishing, and I think, I suspect is not going to increase anytime soon.

Oliver, what are the prospects for maybe timing of a potential meeting between mister Trump and Putin?

Oliver, what are the prospects for maybe timing of a potential meeting between mister Trump and Putin?

Yeah, so listen, I think that Trump would like to see this happen sooner rather than later. I think again, Putin is proceeding with sort of extreme caution.

Yeah, so listen, I think that Trump would like to see this happen sooner rather than later. I think again, Putin is proceeding with sort of extreme caution.

They've got all this sort of groundwork sort of laid for it.

They've got all this sort of groundwork sort of laid for it.

They would like, we know, to have that meeting, or Trump would like to have that meeting in Saudi Arabia. At this point, though, I think it's way too early to tell when that could happen. We do know from our reporting that Steve Wikoff, who's actually technically the sort of special envoy for the Middle East but seems to be the kind of special envoy for ceasefires generally speaking, he's going to be in Moscow later this week to sort of get the ball rolling there. But again, I think it's very a little bit too early to say to give a timeline on that.

They would like, we know, to have that meeting, or Trump would like to have that meeting in Saudi Arabia. At this point, though, I think it's way too early to tell when that could happen. We do know from our reporting that Steve Wikoff, who's actually technically the sort of special envoy for the Middle East but seems to be the kind of special envoy for ceasefires generally speaking, he's going to be in Moscow later this week to sort of get the ball rolling there. But again, I think it's very a little bit too early to say to give a timeline on that.

At this precise moment, where are we in ramping up defense spending in Germany.

At this precise moment, where are we in ramping up defense spending in Germany.

So listen, I think this is going to be This was the kind of the bazooka that was dropped the other week by the leader of the CDU who's going to be the incoming chancellor of Frederick Mertz. Here they were talking about basically performing the debt break, and that is a huge deal here in Germany. The debt break is something that's not just a law within Germany. This is part of the German constitution. They put it in in two thousand and nine after the financial crisis.

So listen, I think this is going to be This was the kind of the bazooka that was dropped the other week by the leader of the CDU who's going to be the incoming chancellor of Frederick Mertz. Here they were talking about basically performing the debt break, and that is a huge deal here in Germany. The debt break is something that's not just a law within Germany. This is part of the German constitution. They put it in in two thousand and nine after the financial crisis.

What's interesting is Mertz ran on a.

What's interesting is Mertz ran on a.

Platform basically saying that they will not reform the debt break, and then, you.

Platform basically saying that they will not reform the debt break, and then, you.

Know, five days after basically.

Know, five days after basically.

Winning the election and not winning sort of a decisive majority, winning just sort of the biggest proportion within parliament, said that they're willing to sort of reform the debt break. That comes with its own issues within Germany at the sort of national level. I mean, you have the AfD, the far right that has been basically accusing a lot of this sort of German politicians to be acting undemocratically. What they are now trying to do is force through this debt break reform which requires two thirds of the parliament with the old parliament, despite the fact that they had an election in order to get this money through and listen, the market was very very pleased about this in many respects, and this was priced in basically all the way to the market, and then there was some doubt about whether or not they're going to get it through. It seems they're going to be able to get the compromise in the lower house in the Buddnestag, But it is not necessarily a done deal that they're going to be able to reform the debt break to get all that defense spending done.

Winning the election and not winning sort of a decisive majority, winning just sort of the biggest proportion within parliament, said that they're willing to sort of reform the debt break. That comes with its own issues within Germany at the sort of national level. I mean, you have the AfD, the far right that has been basically accusing a lot of this sort of German politicians to be acting undemocratically. What they are now trying to do is force through this debt break reform which requires two thirds of the parliament with the old parliament, despite the fact that they had an election in order to get this money through and listen, the market was very very pleased about this in many respects, and this was priced in basically all the way to the market, and then there was some doubt about whether or not they're going to get it through. It seems they're going to be able to get the compromise in the lower house in the Buddnestag, But it is not necessarily a done deal that they're going to be able to reform the debt break to get all that defense spending done.

So when do we get clarity out of Germany there on this story, Oliver, Except obviously it's a big, big move.

So when do we get clarity out of Germany there on this story, Oliver, Except obviously it's a big, big move.

Yeah, we should get it over the next couple of weeks. Right now, where it's basically stuck is at the Bundestag, where the Greens they basically they need to get the Greens on board in order to reform this. At the first sort of step, the Greens have kicked up with a bit of a fuss because they've lost basically a large proportion of their representation in the next parliament and they want to put their stamp on things. I suspect they'll be able to get through that. But then there is the sort of the Bundesrat, which is the upper house. I don't want to get too into the weeds here of German politics, But then you need to get a sort of a lot more complex arithmetic. So we will get clarity of this over the next couple of weeks. But if they can't get this through. This would be an absolutely massive blow of all the sort of talks we've had about defense spending and stuff that they're doing at the EU level, This was by far the most significant thing we've seen out of European defense, and we've seen it priced into a lot of the stocks and a lot of the companies. You know, Ryan Mattel put out their earnings today. This is the biggest sort of defense contractor here within Europe. They're expecting twenty five to thirty percent growth in sales just this year. That could boost even higher if they get this through.

Yeah, we should get it over the next couple of weeks. Right now, where it's basically stuck is at the Bundestag, where the Greens they basically they need to get the Greens on board in order to reform this. At the first sort of step, the Greens have kicked up with a bit of a fuss because they've lost basically a large proportion of their representation in the next parliament and they want to put their stamp on things. I suspect they'll be able to get through that. But then there is the sort of the Bundesrat, which is the upper house. I don't want to get too into the weeds here of German politics, But then you need to get a sort of a lot more complex arithmetic. So we will get clarity of this over the next couple of weeks. But if they can't get this through. This would be an absolutely massive blow of all the sort of talks we've had about defense spending and stuff that they're doing at the EU level, This was by far the most significant thing we've seen out of European defense, and we've seen it priced into a lot of the stocks and a lot of the companies. You know, Ryan Mattel put out their earnings today. This is the biggest sort of defense contractor here within Europe. They're expecting twenty five to thirty percent growth in sales just this year. That could boost even higher if they get this through.

Yeah, I mean we're talking almost one trillion euros and I jump changed at the end of the day, Oliver, thanks a lot, really appreciated Oliver Crook joining us. He is Bloomberg Europe, a europe correspondent.

Yeah, I mean we're talking almost one trillion euros and I jump changed at the end of the day, Oliver, thanks a lot, really appreciated Oliver Crook joining us. He is Bloomberg Europe, a europe correspondent.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Well, in case you didn't know, I was in Houston.

Well, in case you didn't know, I was in Houston.

Texas yes the last day and a half speaking to many energy CEOs and officials and Secretary of Energy, Secretary of the Interior.

Texas yes the last day and a half speaking to many energy CEOs and officials and Secretary of Energy, Secretary of the Interior.

It was really great.

It was really great.

We've got a lot of stuff going on there. I did sit down with the conversation with One Oak President Pierce Norton. So One Oak is a major US midstream energy company, which means they transport stuff like natural gas and GLS that's liquefied stuff and crude oil all across the US Energy Corridor. So I asked him, like, can you actually build? Can you build, baby build? If we're gonna tariffs on aluminum and steel.

We've got a lot of stuff going on there. I did sit down with the conversation with One Oak President Pierce Norton. So One Oak is a major US midstream energy company, which means they transport stuff like natural gas and GLS that's liquefied stuff and crude oil all across the US Energy Corridor. So I asked him, like, can you actually build? Can you build, baby build? If we're gonna tariffs on aluminum and steel.

What I would give some stats behind that is in two thousand and seven, when the shell Revolution started, there was about twenty tcf a year of gas flowing in the United States. Last year was forty few today trading QP today. Now it's forty two trillion quit feet today. So we've doubled that just since two thousand. That took a massive build out. We've proven we can do it before, and I think we could do it again.

What I would give some stats behind that is in two thousand and seven, when the shell Revolution started, there was about twenty tcf a year of gas flowing in the United States. Last year was forty few today trading QP today. Now it's forty two trillion quit feet today. So we've doubled that just since two thousand. That took a massive build out. We've proven we can do it before, and I think we could do it again.

What do you need to see though from the administration, Because it's permitting, it's now tariffs, it's now you know, putting a pipe in the ground, it's avoiding any lawsuits interestate, Like, what do you need to see to get it done sooner rather than later.

What do you need to see though from the administration, Because it's permitting, it's now tariffs, it's now you know, putting a pipe in the ground, it's avoiding any lawsuits interestate, Like, what do you need to see to get it done sooner rather than later.

Well, I think it's anything that actually accelerates, you know, the permitting is a help to us. But we have a slogan at one Oh that you know, we don't pick sides, We pick issues, and if the issue is getting energy as quick as we can, then we need to focus all aspects of that, not just on the administration.

Well, I think it's anything that actually accelerates, you know, the permitting is a help to us. But we have a slogan at one Oh that you know, we don't pick sides, We pick issues, and if the issue is getting energy as quick as we can, then we need to focus all aspects of that, not just on the administration.

But what is it that we can do as an.

But what is it that we can do as an.

Interstate company an interstate company, and what is it we can do as.

Interstate company an interstate company, and what is it we can do as.

In an industry aside from permitting.

In an industry aside from permitting.

If we get aluminum steel tariffs of twenty five percent, what kind of headwind is that for build out?

If we get aluminum steel tariffs of twenty five percent, what kind of headwind is that for build out?

Well, it's it's a timing issue. You know, for us, we've already built out in most of our assets. We spent ten billion dollars since twenty and seventeen in building out growth projects, and then we spent another twenty five billion in mergers and acquisitions, so we've kind of gotten past that. So it's for on the pipe, it's a timing issue. It's where are you in the process of either trying to negotiate a deal or are you already putting it in the ground. In our case, you're already putting it in the ground, so it's not going to have a material impact on us.

Well, it's it's a timing issue. You know, for us, we've already built out in most of our assets. We spent ten billion dollars since twenty and seventeen in building out growth projects, and then we spent another twenty five billion in mergers and acquisitions, so we've kind of gotten past that. So it's for on the pipe, it's a timing issue. It's where are you in the process of either trying to negotiate a deal or are you already putting it in the ground. In our case, you're already putting it in the ground, so it's not going to have a material impact on us.

To that point, your capac span has rammed a lot as you're doing all those projects.

To that point, your capac span has rammed a lot as you're doing all those projects.

Right, what.

Right, what.

When is your peak capex?

When is your peak capex?

Probably not until the next couple of years.

Probably not until the next couple of years.

And what does that wind up looking like? Because that's a big that's a big spend. How do you reassure investors that, like, it's really going to end there? And what that looks like?

And what does that wind up looking like? Because that's a big that's a big spend. How do you reassure investors that, like, it's really going to end there? And what that looks like?

Right, it's probably around two to three billion dollars a year. But given our size, we're now a sixty you know, billion dollar market cap company. We added, you know, from forty thousand miles of pipe to sixty thousand miles of pipe.

Right, it's probably around two to three billion dollars a year. But given our size, we're now a sixty you know, billion dollar market cap company. We added, you know, from forty thousand miles of pipe to sixty thousand miles of pipe.

We cover twenty three different states.

We cover twenty three different states.

We go all the way from the well head to water and also all the way to basically the trucks that bring the refined products, the jet fuel, the the diesel of the gasoline, you know, to the end user.

We go all the way from the well head to water and also all the way to basically the trucks that bring the refined products, the jet fuel, the the diesel of the gasoline, you know, to the end user.

So when do you think you would be more free cash flow focus versus investment focus?

So when do you think you would be more free cash flow focus versus investment focus?

When what does that turn look like?

When what does that turn look like?

We're already free cash flow focused?

We're already free cash flow focused?

Okay?

Okay?

Can you you could be both.

Can you you could be both.

Like all that and kids?

Like all that and kids?

Okay?

Okay?

Yeah.

Yeah.

And the reason is because if you have enough free cash flow, it opens up all levers, you know, for cap to allocation. Our first priority is to actually spend money on these high return projects. The second one is to look at an increases. The third one is reducing our debts. You do all that, and you do all of that kind of stuff, and we've announced the two billion dollars buyback program on our stock. We still have money left over from that, but our commercial people find a way to find those good projects for us.

And the reason is because if you have enough free cash flow, it opens up all levers, you know, for cap to allocation. Our first priority is to actually spend money on these high return projects. The second one is to look at an increases. The third one is reducing our debts. You do all that, and you do all of that kind of stuff, and we've announced the two billion dollars buyback program on our stock. We still have money left over from that, but our commercial people find a way to find those good projects for us.

So I'm not worried about spending that in the right way.

So I'm not worried about spending that in the right way.

If oil prices slide, there were six months low yesterday of natural gas prices slide, does that hurt you?

If oil prices slide, there were six months low yesterday of natural gas prices slide, does that hurt you?

How does that affect Well.

How does that affect Well.

What we've seen is that the producers are way more resilient than they used to be used to. When prices would go up or down a small amount, they would either throw rigs, you know, at the issue, or they would you know, they would lay rigs down. Now that that gap seems to be a whole lot wider, and part of that is because they're much more efficient.

What we've seen is that the producers are way more resilient than they used to be used to. When prices would go up or down a small amount, they would either throw rigs, you know, at the issue, or they would you know, they would lay rigs down. Now that that gap seems to be a whole lot wider, and part of that is because they're much more efficient.

Than they used to be.

Than they used to be.

They can drill longer laterals, especially where we are really concentrated up in the Permi Basin and the Balking basin.

They can drill longer laterals, especially where we are really concentrated up in the Permi Basin and the Balking basin.

They're drilling. You know, used to drill a two mile.

They're drilling. You know, used to drill a two mile.

Horizontal later announced almost three, so they can do it for less capital.

Horizontal later announced almost three, so they can do it for less capital.

I love you brought the Permian because we heard from Mike Worth yesterday of Chevron that the Permian eventually is going to plateau in the next few years.

I love you brought the Permian because we heard from Mike Worth yesterday of Chevron that the Permian eventually is going to plateau in the next few years.

Do you see that on a takeaway capacity basis?

Do you see that on a takeaway capacity basis?

Well, I've been in this business for forty years and one of the things that I've seen is every time you predict something like that, usually they find a way of even becoming more efficient, so therefore opening up more drilling, you know on you know, so you got your probable reserves, you got your possible reserves, and then but your proven reserves are what they're really after. So I would question, I can see what is it that the you know, is he talking about proven or probable reserves because they have different pricing points.

Well, I've been in this business for forty years and one of the things that I've seen is every time you predict something like that, usually they find a way of even becoming more efficient, so therefore opening up more drilling, you know on you know, so you got your probable reserves, you got your possible reserves, and then but your proven reserves are what they're really after. So I would question, I can see what is it that the you know, is he talking about proven or probable reserves because they have different pricing points.

When you take a look at the kind of infrastructure build out that we're seeing, and I know that you're already putting pipes in the ground, what do you think we need to move stuff in the next five to ten years? Like what stuff were we going to be moving around.

When you take a look at the kind of infrastructure build out that we're seeing, and I know that you're already putting pipes in the ground, what do you think we need to move stuff in the next five to ten years? Like what stuff were we going to be moving around.

We're going to move all kinds of molecules.

We're going to move all kinds of molecules.

What people typically talk about is natural gas, which in our business we call methane, but we're also going to meet molecules.

What people typically talk about is natural gas, which in our business we call methane, but we're also going to meet molecules.

For ethane for the petrick ems.

For ethane for the petrick ems.

We're going to move molecules for propane, in which we just announced the DOC down in Texas City with our partner Marathon to provide propane all over the world world scale DOC. We're going to be moving isive utane, normal utane, gasolines, and in our case we move jet fuel, we move gasoline for cars, and we also move diesel fuel. So all of those molecules. There will be more of those to move in the future.

We're going to move molecules for propane, in which we just announced the DOC down in Texas City with our partner Marathon to provide propane all over the world world scale DOC. We're going to be moving isive utane, normal utane, gasolines, and in our case we move jet fuel, we move gasoline for cars, and we also move diesel fuel. So all of those molecules. There will be more of those to move in the future.

In your line of sight with those molecules.

In your line of sight with those molecules.

Any signs of a recession in the US, lowing economies, lowing demands.

Any signs of a recession in the US, lowing economies, lowing demands.

So far not not so.

So far not not so.

Definitive, not com here to Norton, I want to President and CEO of course is a major US menstream entergy companies, so they transport.

Definitive, not com here to Norton, I want to President and CEO of course is a major US menstream entergy companies, so they transport.

All this stuff.

All this stuff.

Now.

Now.

The biggest issue here, not to nerd out on you here.

The biggest issue here, not to nerd out on you here.

Is that in order to make all of us happen, and I mean all of this power demand data centers you name it. You need pipelines and stuff, You need transmission lines, which means you need permitting reform. And I know that people's eyes glaze over when when you hear that.

Is that in order to make all of us happen, and I mean all of this power demand data centers you name it. You need pipelines and stuff, You need transmission lines, which means you need permitting reform. And I know that people's eyes glaze over when when you hear that.

But it's a mess.

But it's a mess.

Now is this administration? Does the industry have expectations at industry? This industry? This administration will be.

Now is this administration? Does the industry have expectations at industry? This industry? This administration will be.

Better, yes and slash, But will it? Will it stay better? Will it be permanent permitting reform or will it be small tweaks? Because to get permitting reform and get all of the lawsuits potential lawsuits from states taken care of all your pricing, all your sourcing and pipe in the ground in four years could be very much impossible. So you need like permanent reform in order to make it happen. That part, I think is a little bit TBD.

Better, yes and slash, But will it? Will it stay better? Will it be permanent permitting reform or will it be small tweaks? Because to get permitting reform and get all of the lawsuits potential lawsuits from states taken care of all your pricing, all your sourcing and pipe in the ground in four years could be very much impossible. So you need like permanent reform in order to make it happen. That part, I think is a little bit TBD.

What has changed, though, is the reasons we need this energy, And I think that being AI, which most people don't know what AI is, and I might throw myself into that camp, but I know it's a thing, and I know it's generally not positive, and it's a strategic imperative for the United States. Therefore, in order for me to be a leader in AI, I have to be a leader in er supporter of energy.

What has changed, though, is the reasons we need this energy, And I think that being AI, which most people don't know what AI is, and I might throw myself into that camp, but I know it's a thing, and I know it's generally not positive, and it's a strategic imperative for the United States. Therefore, in order for me to be a leader in AI, I have to be a leader in er supporter of energy.

Yes, and I spoke to some of the big power players, so Constellation Energy, Energy, Next Era.

Yes, and I spoke to some of the big power players, so Constellation Energy, Energy, Next Era.

These are all the guys like their stock moves like AI stocks because they're the power providers.

These are all the guys like their stock moves like AI stocks because they're the power providers.

Right.

Right.

They were saying though that their demand growth that they've seen has nothing to do with AI. Oh, it's still cloud, it's still population growth, it's still just general demand. The AI is then layered on top of that. So these kind of forecasts, like the current money that they're making, has nothing.

They were saying though that their demand growth that they've seen has nothing to do with AI. Oh, it's still cloud, it's still population growth, it's still just general demand. The AI is then layered on top of that. So these kind of forecasts, like the current money that they're making, has nothing.

To do yet with those data centers.

To do yet with those data centers.

Interesting, which I found to be extremely interesting that we're way in the first inning when it comes to beefing up that kind of demand.

Interesting, which I found to be extremely interesting that we're way in the first inning when it comes to beefing up that kind of demand.

What is the energy folks then are in Houston. What were they feeling about just the tariff discussion?

What is the energy folks then are in Houston. What were they feeling about just the tariff discussion?

Well, they love it, no, I'm kidding, yes, okay, So on the record, everyone was always talking about how that they're minimally exposed. It's demonymous. It's just you know, five percent of their costs. It's no big deal. Off the record, no one loves it. And they also don't love the uncertainty and as mentioning before, Like I asked, particularly Patrick Piane, who's the CEO of tautel energies who is offshore wind projects right? I said, are you throwing them in the trash? He's like nowhere, pausing, And I was like, why pausing. He's like, they're thirty year leases. This is a four year administration. But pause is still a pause, and pause is still like not putting capital into certain projects.

Well, they love it, no, I'm kidding, yes, okay, So on the record, everyone was always talking about how that they're minimally exposed. It's demonymous. It's just you know, five percent of their costs. It's no big deal. Off the record, no one loves it. And they also don't love the uncertainty and as mentioning before, Like I asked, particularly Patrick Piane, who's the CEO of tautel energies who is offshore wind projects right? I said, are you throwing them in the trash? He's like nowhere, pausing, And I was like, why pausing. He's like, they're thirty year leases. This is a four year administration. But pause is still a pause, and pause is still like not putting capital into certain projects.

When I think of energy projects, these things take time long and a lot of capital, So you have to have some level of certainty before you start putting all that money into the ground.

When I think of energy projects, these things take time long and a lot of capital, So you have to have some level of certainty before you start putting all that money into the ground.

Absolutely, and the buyers have do.

Absolutely, and the buyers have do.

To yep, all right, good stuff.

To yep, all right, good stuff.

I mean, we got plenty more to go too, But I mean it's it just goes to the issue of you know, the energy so is one of those industries that doesn't like uncertainty.

I mean, we got plenty more to go too, But I mean it's it just goes to the issue of you know, the energy so is one of those industries that doesn't like uncertainty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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I was in Houston, Texas over the last day and a half for a week long conference called Sarah Week. It's where all the energy CEOs, officials, energy ministers, you name it, are all there to discuss policy as well as make deals etc. I was privileged to talk to the CEO of ge Vernova, Scott Straisik. Now gie Rinova was spun off a year ago from ge. It's the gas and wind turbine manufacturer, so power generation, power grid. This is the company that makes all that stuff, the transformers that you plug into the grid to make all the power work. They make that stuff them and three other companies. I sat down with him and I said, look, we have tariffs coming on, there's recession fears everywhere, equities are getting hurt. How does this affect your business? Here's that part of the conversation.

I was in Houston, Texas over the last day and a half for a week long conference called Sarah Week. It's where all the energy CEOs, officials, energy ministers, you name it, are all there to discuss policy as well as make deals etc. I was privileged to talk to the CEO of ge Vernova, Scott Straisik. Now gie Rinova was spun off a year ago from ge. It's the gas and wind turbine manufacturer, so power generation, power grid. This is the company that makes all that stuff, the transformers that you plug into the grid to make all the power work. They make that stuff them and three other companies. I sat down with him and I said, look, we have tariffs coming on, there's recession fears everywhere, equities are getting hurt. How does this affect your business? Here's that part of the conversation.

We've certainly experienced stock volatility over the last six months, but the end market's not so much at all. No, I mean, just like we started the year, I'd say we expect substantial growth in both our gas and our grid backlogs. It's substantially higher margin than when we started the year. Continue to work on operationally proving our winden business. So that's the one in a marketing that's a little bit softer for us, but certainly in our larger, faster growing business, there is really no change through the first two and a half months of the year.

We've certainly experienced stock volatility over the last six months, but the end market's not so much at all. No, I mean, just like we started the year, I'd say we expect substantial growth in both our gas and our grid backlogs. It's substantially higher margin than when we started the year. Continue to work on operationally proving our winden business. So that's the one in a marketing that's a little bit softer for us, but certainly in our larger, faster growing business, there is really no change through the first two and a half months of the year.

If we get.

If we get.

Tariffs on aluminum steel tomorrow at twenty five percent, how does that impact you At.

Tariffs on aluminum steel tomorrow at twenty five percent, how does that impact you At.

The end of the day, these are technologies that are needed, and this is also an example of where it helps to be a US based company. I mean, we only buy about five percent of our raw materials from Canada, Mexico, China that gets imported into the US, so we'll have to navigate through whatever policies come, but we feel like we can manage through those disruptions.

The end of the day, these are technologies that are needed, and this is also an example of where it helps to be a US based company. I mean, we only buy about five percent of our raw materials from Canada, Mexico, China that gets imported into the US, so we'll have to navigate through whatever policies come, but we feel like we can manage through those disruptions.

Do pricing power to push it through.

Do pricing power to push it through.

In the end, it doesn't mean in between between now and then, there couldn't be some financial implications for us with only about five percent of our material buy being in those countries. We'll navigate through it, but we're not immune to tariff risks, but we're confident we can navigate our way through this.

In the end, it doesn't mean in between between now and then, there couldn't be some financial implications for us with only about five percent of our material buy being in those countries. We'll navigate through it, but we're not immune to tariff risks, but we're confident we can navigate our way through this.

This has been a year for ge Bernova quite a year.

This has been a year for ge Bernova quite a year.

Yeah, it's been spun out from GE and it's been quite a year in terms of AI and data center demand. What's been the biggest change you leading the company in the last year.

Yeah, it's been spun out from GE and it's been quite a year in terms of AI and data center demand. What's been the biggest change you leading the company in the last year.

Well, I mean, I'm proud of the first year, but most Importantly, it's really just the beginning for us because a lot of these trends, whether it be AI, whether it be the electrification of these industries, it's really just starting. So our end markets continue to strengthen. I think there's a more reality based focus on both the need for gas and nuclear, so the demand cycle for both of those continues to get even stronger today than where we were twelve months ago. And it really then comes back to how do we deliver safely and in a high quality way to serve this incredible market that we're walking into.

Well, I mean, I'm proud of the first year, but most Importantly, it's really just the beginning for us because a lot of these trends, whether it be AI, whether it be the electrification of these industries, it's really just starting. So our end markets continue to strengthen. I think there's a more reality based focus on both the need for gas and nuclear, so the demand cycle for both of those continues to get even stronger today than where we were twelve months ago. And it really then comes back to how do we deliver safely and in a high quality way to serve this incredible market that we're walking into.

Your backlog is huge, right, It's like seventy three billion dollars, right?

Your backlog is huge, right, It's like seventy three billion dollars, right?

Can you can be perspective like how much of that is AI demand driven?

Can you can be perspective like how much of that is AI demand driven?

How much of that is like win stuff?

How much of that is like win stuff?

How much of that is transformers which is the stuff you got to plug into the grid.

How much of that is transformers which is the stuff you got to plug into the grid.

You bet.

You bet.

It's still a very small proportion of our backlog is directly attached to AI. I mean, when you really think about even data centers in total, there's only about sixty gigawatts of data centers globally today, and only fifteen percent of that it's really explicitly related to AI.

It's still a very small proportion of our backlog is directly attached to AI. I mean, when you really think about even data centers in total, there's only about sixty gigawatts of data centers globally today, and only fifteen percent of that it's really explicitly related to AI.

Most of it's still cloud and storage.

Most of it's still cloud and storage.

So that's why there's so much growth to come because we're really just starting. But I'm sure us sitting down a few years from now, it's going to be a larger proportion of our backlog.

So that's why there's so much growth to come because we're really just starting. But I'm sure us sitting down a few years from now, it's going to be a larger proportion of our backlog.

How much do you think it would be.

How much do you think it would be.

Best guess, Oh, it's gonna be a lot more, there's no question about it.