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Lawmakers from the far left and right of France's political spectrum are set to combine and topple Prime Minister Michelle Barnier's government tonight in at Paris. The National Assembly set to reconvene as we speak, and that is when we're supposed to get the result. Covering it all is Stephen Carroll, Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Europe anchor. Stephen joins us from our Paris bureau. Stephen, good to see you this evening. Earlier in your career, you spent a decade working for France twenty four Television in Paris. You've interviewed President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Michelle Barnier. How did we get to where we are today?

Lawmakers from the far left and right of France's political spectrum are set to combine and topple Prime Minister Michelle Barnier's government tonight in at Paris. The National Assembly set to reconvene as we speak, and that is when we're supposed to get the result. Covering it all is Stephen Carroll, Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Europe anchor. Stephen joins us from our Paris bureau. Stephen, good to see you this evening. Earlier in your career, you spent a decade working for France twenty four Television in Paris. You've interviewed President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Michelle Barnier. How did we get to where we are today?

I mean, the short answer is that Emmanuel Macron called an election in June. He wasn't happy with how his party date in European Parliament elections, so he decided to go to the country, dissolve the parliament, the National Assembly call elections, thinking that it would reinforce his position give French people the choice of who they wanted to govern. And fortunately French people didn't have the same idea. And what he ended up with was fewer numbers of MPs in the National Assembly and a very fractured parliament. That left three large groupings, the Marie Lepens National Rally on the right, the far right, his Centrist group which he picked up some of the center right party as well, and this left wing alliance which is the biggest group in the parliament as well. Nobody had a majority, nobody could govern. Then he had to try and find a government because his job as president he gets to nominate the Prime Minister and set the agenda for policy. He picked Michel Baunier, this man who has had a storied fifty year career in French politics. He's been a minister, He's been a European commissioner, he was the ease chief negotiator on Brexit. He is a statesman. He brings with him He's not from Macron's political family, so he brings with him the sense of somebody who is above the fray of politics. He's not currently an elected politician, so got him in to try and run the government to pass a budget, which was the biggest immediate concern. He brought the budget to Parliament, tried to negotiate a compromise with the various groups. Wasn't able to do that. Used a constitutional provision that allows them to force it through parliament. But unfortunately, the downside of using that provision is is that the opposition can call a vote of no confidence in the government. And that's where we are now, and they're currently voting. After about two and a half hours of debate in the French Parliament, lots of views expressed. Mitelvannie got up at the end to lay out his position to saying it's a moment of truth and responsibility for France and we'll find out if anyone listened to him in just a couple of minutes time.

I mean, the short answer is that Emmanuel Macron called an election in June. He wasn't happy with how his party date in European Parliament elections, so he decided to go to the country, dissolve the parliament, the National Assembly call elections, thinking that it would reinforce his position give French people the choice of who they wanted to govern. And fortunately French people didn't have the same idea. And what he ended up with was fewer numbers of MPs in the National Assembly and a very fractured parliament. That left three large groupings, the Marie Lepens National Rally on the right, the far right, his Centrist group which he picked up some of the center right party as well, and this left wing alliance which is the biggest group in the parliament as well. Nobody had a majority, nobody could govern. Then he had to try and find a government because his job as president he gets to nominate the Prime Minister and set the agenda for policy. He picked Michel Baunier, this man who has had a storied fifty year career in French politics. He's been a minister, He's been a European commissioner, he was the ease chief negotiator on Brexit. He is a statesman. He brings with him He's not from Macron's political family, so he brings with him the sense of somebody who is above the fray of politics. He's not currently an elected politician, so got him in to try and run the government to pass a budget, which was the biggest immediate concern. He brought the budget to Parliament, tried to negotiate a compromise with the various groups. Wasn't able to do that. Used a constitutional provision that allows them to force it through parliament. But unfortunately, the downside of using that provision is is that the opposition can call a vote of no confidence in the government. And that's where we are now, and they're currently voting. After about two and a half hours of debate in the French Parliament, lots of views expressed. Mitelvannie got up at the end to lay out his position to saying it's a moment of truth and responsibility for France and we'll find out if anyone listened to him in just a couple of minutes time.

And Stephen, what happens in the immediate aftermath if the French government loses the no confidence vote.

And Stephen, what happens in the immediate aftermath if the French government loses the no confidence vote.

So we will. The first thing that happens is the government has to resign, right, so Mite Albanni and all of his ministers will present their resignation to the President. It then turns to the president who will have to appoint the next government. But the more immediate problem, because there's no deadline for when Emmanuel Macron would have to pick a new prime minister to lead and form a new government. The more immediate problem is is France's current budget runs out at the end of the year, so then we roll over into twenty twenty five and into relative political unknown. There won't be a shutdown, and it's actually been funny and a lot of the discourse here people that keep mentioning, oh, it won't be like the US government.

So we will. The first thing that happens is the government has to resign, right, so Mite Albanni and all of his ministers will present their resignation to the President. It then turns to the president who will have to appoint the next government. But the more immediate problem, because there's no deadline for when Emmanuel Macron would have to pick a new prime minister to lead and form a new government. The more immediate problem is is France's current budget runs out at the end of the year, so then we roll over into twenty twenty five and into relative political unknown. There won't be a shutdown, and it's actually been funny and a lot of the discourse here people that keep mentioning, oh, it won't be like the US government.

Shot, yeah, that's our problem.

Shot, yeah, that's our problem.

They'll still keep collecting. Yeah, they'll still keep collecting taxes. Even using the word shutdown in French was quite funny. But they're still going to collect taxes. Public services will still run. But essentially what they'll do is they'll take the twenty twenty four budget, carve it up into twelve pieces, and each department will get a twelfth of their budget every month. That that presents, as you might imagine, all sorts of problems, because it's very difficult to run the state on that sort of month to month basis. It's not like working on your overdraft. And the other problem is is that there were a load of measures in this budget that we're going to change things, both for taxpayers and for welfare recipients. So for taxpayers, the tax thresholds for income tax were due to rise and line with inflation. If that doesn't happen, everyone's got well not everyone, but eighteen million households are going to be paying more tax from January. There's good news though for pensioners. They were due to get their inflation linked increase delayed after January to later in the year. They actually will get their inflation linked increase in January if there isn't a budget. But all of this presents the same problem that France has had since the middle of last year. It's budget death as it is too large for EU budget rules, but also to be able to convince markets, and we've seen France's international borrowing costs rise as a result. Part of the issue now has to be is they need to come up with a credible fiscal plan for the country so as to cam the fears that exist on the markets. And the rise in borrowing costs has been moderate, hasn't got to quite extremes yet, but it sets up a huge task for whoever's going to take over after Michel Bagni, if indeed he is forced to resign, to whether or not they can put together the plan and achieve something that a man who was legendary for his negotiation skills, wasn't able.

They'll still keep collecting. Yeah, they'll still keep collecting taxes. Even using the word shutdown in French was quite funny. But they're still going to collect taxes. Public services will still run. But essentially what they'll do is they'll take the twenty twenty four budget, carve it up into twelve pieces, and each department will get a twelfth of their budget every month. That that presents, as you might imagine, all sorts of problems, because it's very difficult to run the state on that sort of month to month basis. It's not like working on your overdraft. And the other problem is is that there were a load of measures in this budget that we're going to change things, both for taxpayers and for welfare recipients. So for taxpayers, the tax thresholds for income tax were due to rise and line with inflation. If that doesn't happen, everyone's got well not everyone, but eighteen million households are going to be paying more tax from January. There's good news though for pensioners. They were due to get their inflation linked increase delayed after January to later in the year. They actually will get their inflation linked increase in January if there isn't a budget. But all of this presents the same problem that France has had since the middle of last year. It's budget death as it is too large for EU budget rules, but also to be able to convince markets, and we've seen France's international borrowing costs rise as a result. Part of the issue now has to be is they need to come up with a credible fiscal plan for the country so as to cam the fears that exist on the markets. And the rise in borrowing costs has been moderate, hasn't got to quite extremes yet, but it sets up a huge task for whoever's going to take over after Michel Bagni, if indeed he is forced to resign, to whether or not they can put together the plan and achieve something that a man who was legendary for his negotiation skills, wasn't able.

To well, we are waiting to hear from the National Assembly about the results of that vote. We will bring that to you imminently as we do get the results. Stephen, what about other names that at this point have emerged to take over as prime minister? What can you tell us there, Hi?

To well, we are waiting to hear from the National Assembly about the results of that vote. We will bring that to you imminently as we do get the results. Stephen, what about other names that at this point have emerged to take over as prime minister? What can you tell us there, Hi?

Michel Varnier ruled himself out in an interview on French television last night, which is important because it had been something that had been speculated that perhaps an annual macron might just say we'll give it another go. By the way, the last time this happened when the only time since the current constitution has been in force in France, which is since nineteen fifty eight, the only time it's happened that a government has lost a vote of no confidence was in nineteen sixty two.

Michel Varnier ruled himself out in an interview on French television last night, which is important because it had been something that had been speculated that perhaps an annual macron might just say we'll give it another go. By the way, the last time this happened when the only time since the current constitution has been in force in France, which is since nineteen fifty eight, the only time it's happened that a government has lost a vote of no confidence was in nineteen sixty two.

Stephen, I'm sorry to cut you off. We're getting again, We're getting a result right now. The French government falls after no confidence vote in Parliament. The French no commindant's motion passes with three hundred and thirty one votes. Two hundred and eighty eight were needed, not too surprising given how closely you followed this, but what's your immediate reaction.

Stephen, I'm sorry to cut you off. We're getting again, We're getting a result right now. The French government falls after no confidence vote in Parliament. The French no commindant's motion passes with three hundred and thirty one votes. Two hundred and eighty eight were needed, not too surprising given how closely you followed this, but what's your immediate reaction.

I mean, look, it means there wasn't any defections. Michelle Barnier's call for responsibility doesn't seem to have won over any of the MPs he was hoping. He was particularly targeting the center left Party, the Socialist Party, who've been in government in France many times in recent history. The question of whether or not some of those MPs might be willing to abstain, for example, from this vote to try and save the government. He doesn't seem to have convinced them with this message. That's the number in and around what we expected, because it's basically if you add together the Left Ring Alliance and Marion Lea Penn's far right National Rally, those parties put together give us that total of in and around three hundred and thirty. So it looks like that they didn't manage to convince anyone to cross the line. It's a result that's pretty much then in line with expectations, but now opens up the question of what happens next. What will Emmanuel Macron do. He's just landed back in France in the past few minutes from visit to Saudi Arabia, where he was trying to brush off a lot of these political questions at home and continue on with international affairs to little avail as everyone just wanted to ask him what he planned to do after this vote went through. He had been asked on many occasions whether or not he might resign, and he says that's not an issue, it's not even in question that he would do that. Of course, his term runs till twenty twenty seven, so we now set ourselves up for the timeline where the French President can take as long as he likes to appoint a new government. We don't think he's going to leave it that long, but it does plunge us into a sort of political vacuum. Now we'll have to have a caretaker government to keep current affairs running, but it's going to make those big challenges like dealing with the budget even more difficult.

I mean, look, it means there wasn't any defections. Michelle Barnier's call for responsibility doesn't seem to have won over any of the MPs he was hoping. He was particularly targeting the center left Party, the Socialist Party, who've been in government in France many times in recent history. The question of whether or not some of those MPs might be willing to abstain, for example, from this vote to try and save the government. He doesn't seem to have convinced them with this message. That's the number in and around what we expected, because it's basically if you add together the Left Ring Alliance and Marion Lea Penn's far right National Rally, those parties put together give us that total of in and around three hundred and thirty. So it looks like that they didn't manage to convince anyone to cross the line. It's a result that's pretty much then in line with expectations, but now opens up the question of what happens next. What will Emmanuel Macron do. He's just landed back in France in the past few minutes from visit to Saudi Arabia, where he was trying to brush off a lot of these political questions at home and continue on with international affairs to little avail as everyone just wanted to ask him what he planned to do after this vote went through. He had been asked on many occasions whether or not he might resign, and he says that's not an issue, it's not even in question that he would do that. Of course, his term runs till twenty twenty seven, so we now set ourselves up for the timeline where the French President can take as long as he likes to appoint a new government. We don't think he's going to leave it that long, but it does plunge us into a sort of political vacuum. Now we'll have to have a caretaker government to keep current affairs running, but it's going to make those big challenges like dealing with the budget even more difficult.

Stephen, do we have a good idea of who would likely be the next prime minister in what that new government would look like.

Stephen, do we have a good idea of who would likely be the next prime minister in what that new government would look like.

We don't. There are a couple of names that have been floated around, but it's not a specific list of people that have been floated. You could imagine that Emmanuel Macron would try and pick from, if not his own political family, those who've already said that they would ally with him. There had been a question before Michel Barnier was picked as to whether he might be able to pick a politician from the Socialist Party, that center left party and thus bring them into this center alliance that he was trying to create. But they couldn't agree between the left wing parties on the same candidate that Emmanuel Macron want wanted. That was Bonno Kaznov, who's a former interior minister. He was the one who had been mentioned last time around. This was in the discussions that led up to Michel Barnier being picked. But the names that are out there now are in the realm of speculation. There's no rallied support around someone. There's no obvious candidate for who would take over, because the challenge facing the person who takes on that they have the same parliamentary match to deal with. Michel Barnier was dealt a very difficult hand. He didn't have a majority in parliament. He did his best to try and build a way of working. He always said that he was leaving it to parliament to be able to legislate and negotiate on important matters. That's failed. You have to ask who would be brave enough to step into those shoes, because it's a pretty nasty hand of cards to be hand them.

We don't. There are a couple of names that have been floated around, but it's not a specific list of people that have been floated. You could imagine that Emmanuel Macron would try and pick from, if not his own political family, those who've already said that they would ally with him. There had been a question before Michel Barnier was picked as to whether he might be able to pick a politician from the Socialist Party, that center left party and thus bring them into this center alliance that he was trying to create. But they couldn't agree between the left wing parties on the same candidate that Emmanuel Macron want wanted. That was Bonno Kaznov, who's a former interior minister. He was the one who had been mentioned last time around. This was in the discussions that led up to Michel Barnier being picked. But the names that are out there now are in the realm of speculation. There's no rallied support around someone. There's no obvious candidate for who would take over, because the challenge facing the person who takes on that they have the same parliamentary match to deal with. Michel Barnier was dealt a very difficult hand. He didn't have a majority in parliament. He did his best to try and build a way of working. He always said that he was leaving it to parliament to be able to legislate and negotiate on important matters. That's failed. You have to ask who would be brave enough to step into those shoes, because it's a pretty nasty hand of cards to be hand them.

That's exactly where I want to go. We're getting some commentary from France unbowed lawmaker Mattil Panaut, who says that quote, finally the Barnier government has fallen along with its violent budget. Today is a historic day. What does a budget look like in France after this process?

That's exactly where I want to go. We're getting some commentary from France unbowed lawmaker Mattil Panaut, who says that quote, finally the Barnier government has fallen along with its violent budget. Today is a historic day. What does a budget look like in France after this process?

Well, look, we go into this situation where we're going to be going month to month from January. There's very little hope that even if a government was formed tomorrow that they would be able to resuscitate this current budget plan and actually get anything in place by the end of the year. So either way, when it comes to the end the thirty first of December, we're rolling into this suppose minimum service French state that's going to be in place from January of next year, and that's going to bring back in those questions around tax rises for a lot of households who are paying income tax, those rises for pensions as well, and there were specific things like extra financial aid for farmers which now won't be paid out because that won't go into the budget bill. So the next immediate step is that there will be a motion that will need to be passed in Parliament to I suppose activate this temporary measures to keep the state running the lights on, if you will. There's not expected to be any major opposition to that because no French politician wants to be responsible for, you know, no welfare payments being paid early next year, So there's not an expectation that we will have anything but this month to month situation operating from January with a larger budget deficit and with the pressure that's going to put on France's borrowing costs and international markets as well.

Well, look, we go into this situation where we're going to be going month to month from January. There's very little hope that even if a government was formed tomorrow that they would be able to resuscitate this current budget plan and actually get anything in place by the end of the year. So either way, when it comes to the end the thirty first of December, we're rolling into this suppose minimum service French state that's going to be in place from January of next year, and that's going to bring back in those questions around tax rises for a lot of households who are paying income tax, those rises for pensions as well, and there were specific things like extra financial aid for farmers which now won't be paid out because that won't go into the budget bill. So the next immediate step is that there will be a motion that will need to be passed in Parliament to I suppose activate this temporary measures to keep the state running the lights on, if you will. There's not expected to be any major opposition to that because no French politician wants to be responsible for, you know, no welfare payments being paid early next year, So there's not an expectation that we will have anything but this month to month situation operating from January with a larger budget deficit and with the pressure that's going to put on France's borrowing costs and international markets as well.

We're speaking with Stephen Carrol, Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Europe anchor, joining us from our Paris bureau. Stephen Carroll has about a decade of experience covering French politics working for France twenty four TV in Paris. I do also want to bring in Steven Englander, global head G ten x FX research at Standard Chartered Bank. He joined us from New York. Steven Englander talking a little bit about the market reaction here French bond future is now pairing an earlier advance. After the vote result, the europaired gains to trade little change that around a dollar five. How are you looking at market reaction here? What's the trade?

We're speaking with Stephen Carrol, Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Europe anchor, joining us from our Paris bureau. Stephen Carroll has about a decade of experience covering French politics working for France twenty four TV in Paris. I do also want to bring in Steven Englander, global head G ten x FX research at Standard Chartered Bank. He joined us from New York. Steven Englander talking a little bit about the market reaction here French bond future is now pairing an earlier advance. After the vote result, the europaired gains to trade little change that around a dollar five. How are you looking at market reaction here? What's the trade?

Well, I don't think that there's any immediate trade. We started seeing French freads widen around the middle of November. The euro has probably about a percent lower than it would have been absent you know, this issue. I think the last few days the market has reconciled itself to a kind of very much a caretaker government. But also you know, with what the other Steve mentioned, which is that the budget itself is kind of an austerity budget because nothing's indexed in nominal terms. It's all the same level of spending, so it's a lower real spending. So from from a market perspective, this isn't a disaster right now. If it does become a political crisis, like even deeper, or if it spills over to the rest of Europe, that would become much more intense. And you know, as we've seen here, typically these things get resolved because one side or another decides that it's taking a political beating being seen as responsible for you know, whatever, checks don't go out or whatever.

Well, I don't think that there's any immediate trade. We started seeing French freads widen around the middle of November. The euro has probably about a percent lower than it would have been absent you know, this issue. I think the last few days the market has reconciled itself to a kind of very much a caretaker government. But also you know, with what the other Steve mentioned, which is that the budget itself is kind of an austerity budget because nothing's indexed in nominal terms. It's all the same level of spending, so it's a lower real spending. So from from a market perspective, this isn't a disaster right now. If it does become a political crisis, like even deeper, or if it spills over to the rest of Europe, that would become much more intense. And you know, as we've seen here, typically these things get resolved because one side or another decides that it's taking a political beating being seen as responsible for you know, whatever, checks don't go out or whatever.

Stephn Engler I was going to follow up and ask does this affect ECB policy at all? Is the Central Bank thinking about kind of this uncertainty around what happens next with the French budget.

Stephn Engler I was going to follow up and ask does this affect ECB policy at all? Is the Central Bank thinking about kind of this uncertainty around what happens next with the French budget.

I think the ECB is more you know, say, cognizant of these issues right there. You know, we just hurt Powell sort of, you know, drawing strict lines between fiscal and and you know, government and the Central Bank. I don't think the ECB has those strict lines going back to the European fiscal crisis, so you know, maybe a little more likely to cut to make things easier. But I think initially at least their focus will be on trying to prevent any kind of spillover into the rest of Europe and reassure markets that they're ready to take action if anything would happen.

I think the ECB is more you know, say, cognizant of these issues right there. You know, we just hurt Powell sort of, you know, drawing strict lines between fiscal and and you know, government and the Central Bank. I don't think the ECB has those strict lines going back to the European fiscal crisis, so you know, maybe a little more likely to cut to make things easier. But I think initially at least their focus will be on trying to prevent any kind of spillover into the rest of Europe and reassure markets that they're ready to take action if anything would happen.

Steven England or when you say spillover, do you mean political spillover? Do you mean spillover when it comes to markets? How do you see it?

Steven England or when you say spillover, do you mean political spillover? Do you mean spillover when it comes to markets? How do you see it?

Well? I think in the first instance, if we start seeing Italian spreads going up, and you know, Portuguese spreads going up, that's exactly what they don't want and what they would react to. Initially, it's a little bit more delicate to try and intervene on French spreads when it's a French political crisis. But for the rest of Europe, I think their role is unambiguous.

Well? I think in the first instance, if we start seeing Italian spreads going up, and you know, Portuguese spreads going up, that's exactly what they don't want and what they would react to. Initially, it's a little bit more delicate to try and intervene on French spreads when it's a French political crisis. But for the rest of Europe, I think their role is unambiguous.

I want to bring back in Stephen Carroll, who's in our pair of bureau. The far left France Unbound party calls for Emmanuel Macron to resign. I know you've been getting caught up just in the last few minutes, Stephen. What sticks out to you as far as other names that potentially have emerged, or what the political future of Macron is.

I want to bring back in Stephen Carroll, who's in our pair of bureau. The far left France Unbound party calls for Emmanuel Macron to resign. I know you've been getting caught up just in the last few minutes, Stephen. What sticks out to you as far as other names that potentially have emerged, or what the political future of Macron is.

I mean, look, Emmanuel Macron has brushed off any suggestion that he will resign. There's no way that he can be forced to. This vote doesn't affect his position in power, and he's due to stay in office until twenty twenty seven. A person who very keenly would like him to resign, and we've seen that on the decision that she has made in supporting this no confidence motion is Marie Lepenn, the far right candor's course was the person who went up against Macron the last two presidential elections. Her support has been growing slowly and the margin by which Emmanuel Macron defeated her in the last presidential elections, was much smaller than in twenty seventeen. So she would very much like for there to be an early presidential election to get a chance for her to be a to get a shot at the presidency. Now it's not unusual that we'll have that same call from the far left. They're actually one of the biggest groups in Parliament, so they know that they have also significant support and that's been the story of how politics has evolved under Emmanuel Macron in poos who've seen greater support for far right and far left parties as a result. Some of those other names that you mentioned for prime minister, I mentioned Bernard Casnov a minute ago, the former socialist prime minister and Interior minister as well. Perhaps the left might be able to agree on him perhaps forming a government and that would open up the left side of the Parliament to be able to perhaps form a centrist coalition. Other ones that we have been talking about is the likes of Francois Bairrou, who is a centrist politician and early supporter of Emmanuel Macron way back when he ran for presidents the first time around. As well, quite a similar profile in some ways to Michelle Bannier. He's been around a long time in French politics. He has a certain amount of respect for the positions that he's had as well, and perhaps he could be someone who could draw people to either. But he's not really outside of the current alliance that mac Grown's in. You think this because he's already tried Michelle Bangiy someone who's already out of domestic politics, that perhaps he might be looking for someone a little bit bigger next time around that'll pull in new votes and new supports, so that'll be able to create some currency in parliament as well.

I mean, look, Emmanuel Macron has brushed off any suggestion that he will resign. There's no way that he can be forced to. This vote doesn't affect his position in power, and he's due to stay in office until twenty twenty seven. A person who very keenly would like him to resign, and we've seen that on the decision that she has made in supporting this no confidence motion is Marie Lepenn, the far right candor's course was the person who went up against Macron the last two presidential elections. Her support has been growing slowly and the margin by which Emmanuel Macron defeated her in the last presidential elections, was much smaller than in twenty seventeen. So she would very much like for there to be an early presidential election to get a chance for her to be a to get a shot at the presidency. Now it's not unusual that we'll have that same call from the far left. They're actually one of the biggest groups in Parliament, so they know that they have also significant support and that's been the story of how politics has evolved under Emmanuel Macron in poos who've seen greater support for far right and far left parties as a result. Some of those other names that you mentioned for prime minister, I mentioned Bernard Casnov a minute ago, the former socialist prime minister and Interior minister as well. Perhaps the left might be able to agree on him perhaps forming a government and that would open up the left side of the Parliament to be able to perhaps form a centrist coalition. Other ones that we have been talking about is the likes of Francois Bairrou, who is a centrist politician and early supporter of Emmanuel Macron way back when he ran for presidents the first time around. As well, quite a similar profile in some ways to Michelle Bannier. He's been around a long time in French politics. He has a certain amount of respect for the positions that he's had as well, and perhaps he could be someone who could draw people to either. But he's not really outside of the current alliance that mac Grown's in. You think this because he's already tried Michelle Bangiy someone who's already out of domestic politics, that perhaps he might be looking for someone a little bit bigger next time around that'll pull in new votes and new supports, so that'll be able to create some currency in parliament as well.

Stephen Carroll, we're gonna have to let you go. I know you've got a busy night ahead of you. We definitely appreciate you taking the time and it joining us. That's Stephen Carroll of a Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. He's an anchor for Bloomberg Radio, joining us from Paris. So do you want to get back to Stephen England or Global head g TENFX Research at Standard Charter Bank, joining us from New York. The front French stocks closing in on their worst year since twenty ten, although the CAC forty today seemed to shrug off this news. It rose seven tenths of one percent. Can you talk about the equity market reaction around this at all?

Stephen Carroll, we're gonna have to let you go. I know you've got a busy night ahead of you. We definitely appreciate you taking the time and it joining us. That's Stephen Carroll of a Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. He's an anchor for Bloomberg Radio, joining us from Paris. So do you want to get back to Stephen England or Global head g TENFX Research at Standard Charter Bank, joining us from New York. The front French stocks closing in on their worst year since twenty ten, although the CAC forty today seemed to shrug off this news. It rose seven tenths of one percent. Can you talk about the equity market reaction around this at all?

Well, you know, I think there's just a lot of uncertainty there, and you know, obviously there will be pockets where maybe they were, you know, expecting some help from the budget and that's not going to come. But I think it's more broad macro uncertainty than there is any you know, specific equity market risk. What we could see is is, you know, right now the turnover budget, it's sort of an austerity budget if it does turn out that they say reached an agreement, but it's much more expansionary. You know, we could see an equity market reaction, but we could also see markets looking at the fiscal situation and being a little concern.

Well, you know, I think there's just a lot of uncertainty there, and you know, obviously there will be pockets where maybe they were, you know, expecting some help from the budget and that's not going to come. But I think it's more broad macro uncertainty than there is any you know, specific equity market risk. What we could see is is, you know, right now the turnover budget, it's sort of an austerity budget if it does turn out that they say reached an agreement, but it's much more expansionary. You know, we could see an equity market reaction, but we could also see markets looking at the fiscal situation and being a little concern.

What about the outlook here for US versus Europe. We've obviously been watching europaroity. We're not there quite yet, but there's a lot of talk about the US dollar continuing to strengthen against other countries, other regions, including Europe. What are you kind of watching levels wise, and does this news in France kind of change the narrative at all?

What about the outlook here for US versus Europe. We've obviously been watching europaroity. We're not there quite yet, but there's a lot of talk about the US dollar continuing to strengthen against other countries, other regions, including Europe. What are you kind of watching levels wise, and does this news in France kind of change the narrative at all?

Well, dook, I think it does put U P. I mean, it obviously has put parody a little bit closer, if anything. What's surprising, you know, my guess is that we saw one percent, maybe slightly less three quarters of a percent impact on the Euro. So the market is seeing it as an issue. It's not really seeing it as a market crisis. If something were to develop that really led to prolonged political uncertainty, that would be much harsher. But I you know, till now, the market is sort of seeing it as a bad but not as a as a very bad

Well, dook, I think it does put U P. I mean, it obviously has put parody a little bit closer, if anything. What's surprising, you know, my guess is that we saw one percent, maybe slightly less three quarters of a percent impact on the Euro. So the market is seeing it as an issue. It's not really seeing it as a market crisis. If something were to develop that really led to prolonged political uncertainty, that would be much harsher. But I you know, till now, the market is sort of seeing it as a bad but not as a as a very bad

Stephen England are global head G ten FX Research at Standard Charter Bank, joining us from New York

Stephen England are global head G ten FX Research at Standard Charter Bank, joining us from New York