(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox.

GUEST:
FED IN FOCUS: Joseph Gagnon, a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, helped edit minutes for almost two years as a Fed economist, and will weigh in on the release of the FOMC minutes.

(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox.

GUEST:
FED IN FOCUS: Joseph Gagnon, a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, helped edit minutes for almost two years as a Fed economist, and will weigh in on the release of the FOMC minutes.

Listen for investment news and in-depth company research. 

Hosts Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu harness the power of Bloomberg Intelligence to analyze investments on Wall Street. Watch Bloomberg Intelligence LIVE on YouTube, weekdays from 10AM to 12PM ET: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Listen for investment news and in-depth company research. Hosts Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu harness the power of Bloomberg Intelligence to analyze investments on Wall Street. Watch Bloomberg Intelligence LIVE on YouTube, weekdays from 10AM to 12PM ET: <a href="http://bit.ly/3vTiACF">http://bit.ly/3vTiACF</a>.

Alix Steel and Paul Sweeney harness the power of Bloomberg Intelligence to analyze markets, companies and industries.

Bloomberg Intelligence

Peterson’s Gagnon Doesn’t Forecast a Rate Hike in 2016 (Audio)

Peterson's Gagnon Doesn't Forecast a Rate Hike in 2016 (Audio)

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/b2eb6768-8a95-4787-86c9-ae3c009c539e/transcript

Watch Paul and Scarlet LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. 

Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu 
George Ferguson, Senior Aerospace Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the revenue growth outlook for SpaceX. Investors have been largely flying blind since the company’s record-breaking IPO last month, with few financial projections to help determine what the stock is actually worth. That changes next week, when the quiet period ends for analysts at banks that underwrote the $86 billion initial public offering, which was led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co., with 18 other banks participating. Starting Tuesday, investors should expect a pile of new research, price targets and growth estimates, all of which should help shed light on where the shares are likely headed in the near term and over the next few years. 
Michael Shepard, Bloomberg News Senior Technology Editor, joins for a chat on the latest tech headlines, including the Financial Times reporting that OpenAI has proposed giving the US government a 5% stake in the company, and Apple seeking the Trump administration’s approval to purchase chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers on a Pentagon blacklist amid a global memory shortage. 
Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, reacts to the June US jobs report. Hiring slowed sharply in June even as the unemployment rate fell, curbing some of the budding momentum in job growth this year. Nonfarm payrolls increased 57,000 last month after downward revisions to the prior two months took some of the shine off recent blockbuster reports, Bureau of Labor Statistics data Thursday showed. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as labor force participation plunged, leading investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate increases. 
Brendan Murray, Bloomberg News Global Trade Editor, shares his thoughts on Washington’s decision not to renew its trade deal with Canada and Mexico - choosing instead to conduct annual reviews of the pact in a decision that risks adding uncertainty for companies producing goods across North America. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, will remain in force for another decade provided no one country decides to exit. Opting against a longer-term renewal opens the door to years of contentious negotiations over the rules governing continent-wide supply chains and low tariff levels vital for automakers, farmers, retailers and energy companies.

Watch Paul and Scarlet LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.&nbsp;
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>George Ferguson, Senior Aerospace Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the revenue growth outlook for SpaceX. Investors have been largely flying blind since the company&rsquo;s record-breaking IPO last month, with few financial projections to help determine what the stock is actually worth. That changes next week, when the quiet period ends for analysts at banks that underwrote the $86 billion initial public offering, which was led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., with 18 other banks participating. Starting Tuesday, investors should expect a pile of new research, price targets and growth estimates, all of which should help shed light on where the shares are likely headed in the near term and over the next few years.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Michael Shepard, Bloomberg News Senior Technology Editor, joins for a chat on the latest tech headlines, including the Financial Times reporting that OpenAI has proposed giving the US government a 5% stake in the company, and Apple seeking the Trump administration&rsquo;s approval to purchase chips from two Chinese semiconductor makers on a Pentagon blacklist amid a global memory shortage.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, reacts to the June US jobs report. Hiring slowed sharply in June even as the unemployment rate fell, curbing some of the budding momentum in job growth this year. Nonfarm payrolls increased 57,000 last month after downward revisions to the prior two months took some of the shine off recent blockbuster reports, Bureau of Labor Statistics data Thursday showed. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as labor force participation plunged, leading investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Brendan Murray, Bloomberg News Global Trade Editor, shares his thoughts on Washington&rsquo;s decision not to renew its trade deal with Canada and Mexico - choosing instead to conduct annual reviews of the pact in a decision that risks adding uncertainty for companies producing goods across North America. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, will remain in force for another decade provided no one country decides to exit. Opting against a longer-term renewal opens the door to years of contentious negotiations over the rules governing continent-wide supply chains and low tariff levels vital for automakers, farmers, retailers and energy companies. </li>
</ul>

SpaceX Looks to Wall Street to Validate Extreme Market Valuation

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/a34bd249-e099-4bf9-8146-b47b011b5dd9/transcript

Watch Paul and Scarlet LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu
Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to recap earnings from Nike. Executives gave a cautious outlook and warned about elevated consumer anxiety, adding to investor concerns about the sportswear company’s painfully slow turnaround. Nike expects a slowdown in the coming quarter compared to the current period, citing the timing of wholesale shipments in North America among other factors. Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill has led Nike for almost two years and progress toward recapturing growth has dragged on, sparking frustration. Management faces ever-growing pressure to produce results, with the company’s stock down 36% this year through Tuesday’s close, putting the shares on track for a fifth consecutive annual decline. 
Ellen Wald, President at Transversal Consulting and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines the long-term impact of the Iran War on energy markets. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the past few weeks, with American military support helping boost oil flows to more than 10 million barrels per day, a US official said. The increase since President Donald Trump signed an interim peace agreement with Iran represents a big jump in traffic since the war paralyzed flows. 
Andrew Grant, BloombergNEF Head of Intelligent Mobility, on BNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026. The annual flagship report includes analysis of EV adoption in passenger vehicles, commercial vans and trucks, two- and three-wheeled vehicles, and buses globally. It also looks at other drivetrains, including hybrids, natural gas and fuel cells, and explores the resulting impacts on demand for electricity, oil, batteries and materials, as well as CO2 emissions. 
Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg News National Security Team Leader, weighs in on the US deciding against renewing its trade deal with Canada and Mexico. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, choosing instead to conduct annual reviews of the pact in a move that risks adding uncertainty for companies producing goods across North America. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, will remain in force for another a decade provided no one country decides to exit. Annual reviews instead of a longer-term renewal open the door to years of contentious negotiations over the rules governing continent-wide supply chains and low tariff levels vital for automakers, farmers, retailers and energy companies.

Watch Paul and Scarlet LIVE every day on YouTube: <a href="http://bit.ly/3vTiACF">http://bit.ly/3vTiACF</a>.
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu
<ul>
<li>Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to recap earnings from Nike. Executives gave a cautious outlook and warned about elevated consumer anxiety, adding to investor concerns about the sportswear company&rsquo;s painfully slow turnaround. Nike expects a slowdown in the coming quarter compared to the current period, citing the timing of wholesale shipments in North America among other factors. Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill has led Nike for almost two years and progress toward recapturing growth has dragged on, sparking frustration. Management faces ever-growing pressure to produce results, with the company&rsquo;s stock down 36% this year through Tuesday&rsquo;s close, putting the shares on track for a fifth consecutive annual decline.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Ellen Wald, President at Transversal Consulting and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines the long-term impact of the Iran War on energy markets. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the past few weeks, with American military support helping boost oil flows to more than 10 million barrels per day, a US official said. The increase since President Donald Trump signed an interim peace agreement with Iran represents a big jump in traffic since the war paralyzed flows.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Andrew Grant, BloombergNEF Head of Intelligent Mobility, on BNEF&rsquo;s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026. The annual flagship report includes analysis of EV adoption in passenger vehicles, commercial vans and trucks, two- and three-wheeled vehicles, and buses globally. It also looks at other drivetrains, including hybrids, natural gas and fuel cells, and explores the resulting impacts on demand for electricity, oil, batteries and materials, as well as CO2 emissions.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg News National Security Team Leader, weighs in on the US deciding against renewing its trade deal with Canada and Mexico. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, choosing instead to conduct annual reviews of the pact in a move that risks adding uncertainty for companies producing goods across North America. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, will remain in force for another a decade provided no one country decides to exit. Annual reviews instead of a longer-term renewal open the door to years of contentious negotiations over the rules governing continent-wide supply chains and low tariff levels vital for automakers, farmers, retailers and energy companies. </li>
</ul>

Nike Sees Weakness Persisting; US Decides Against Renewing USMCA

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/b121c55f-6173-4bbe-a16c-b47a01229a5b/transcript

Mandeep Singh, Global Head of Tech Research for Bloomberg Intelligence, weighs in on a record run for semiconductors. Chip stocks are heading for their best quarter ever, extending an extraordinary start to the year driven by insatiable demand for artificial intelligence equipment. But after recent jitters sent the stocks tumbling, investors are wondering how much further the rally can go. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has soared 82% in the second quarter, putting it on track for its best quarter ever with one day to go. The gauge is up 94% in 2026, which if it holds would mark its best year since the dot-com boom in 1999. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index has gained 26% in the second quarter, while the S&P 500 Index has risen 14%. 
Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, previews earnings from sportswear giant Nike. Investors will look for further signs of progress in the company’s comeback effort as Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill cements a leadership reset. Traders will also seek details about one-time tariff refunds and demand tied to the FIFA World Cup, as well as clarity on a report saying Nike planned to halt online sales by partners in China.
Kenneth Shea, Senior Consumer Products Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, looks ahead to earnings from Constellation Brands. The company’s revenue is expected to retreat a fifth quarter in a row, weighed down by weaker wine and spirits sales. Operating margin is seen expanding though the benefits of an improved sales mix were likely offset by higher aluminum can costs. 
Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist at the Conference Board, discusses the latest economic data. US consumer confidence edged up in June, as falling gas prices offset concerns about the labor market. The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence increased 0.6 point to 91.2 after a downward revision to the prior month, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 94.4. An indicator of present conditions fell, while a measure of expectations for the next six months advanced. A metric of perceptions about the job market closely monitored by economists fell to the lowest in more than five years. The report shows that cheaper gas resulting from a truce in the Middle East helped assuage some of the anxiety Americans have expressed about the economy in recent months. However, views of job opportunities deteriorated and consumers expect little improvement in the coming months.

<ul>
<li>Mandeep Singh, Global Head of Tech Research for Bloomberg Intelligence, weighs in on a record run for semiconductors. Chip stocks are heading for their best quarter ever, extending an extraordinary start to the year driven by insatiable demand for artificial intelligence equipment. But after recent jitters sent the stocks tumbling, investors are wondering how much further the rally can go. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has soared 82% in the second quarter, putting it on track for its best quarter ever with one day to go. The gauge is up 94% in 2026, which if it holds would mark its best year since the dot-com boom in 1999. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index has gained 26% in the second quarter, while the S&amp;P 500 Index has risen 14%.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, previews earnings from sportswear giant Nike. Investors will look for further signs of progress in the company&rsquo;s comeback effort as Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill cements a leadership reset. Traders will also seek details about one-time tariff refunds and demand tied to the FIFA World Cup, as well as clarity on a report saying Nike planned to halt online sales by partners in China.</li>
<li>Kenneth Shea, Senior Consumer Products Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, looks ahead to earnings from Constellation Brands. The company&rsquo;s revenue is expected to retreat a fifth quarter in a row, weighed down by weaker wine and spirits sales. Operating margin is seen expanding though the benefits of an improved sales mix were likely offset by higher aluminum can costs.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist at the Conference Board, discusses the latest economic data. US consumer confidence edged up in June, as falling gas prices offset concerns about the labor market. The Conference Board&rsquo;s gauge of confidence increased 0.6 point to 91.2 after a downward revision to the prior month, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 94.4. An indicator of present conditions fell, while a measure of expectations for the next six months advanced. A metric of perceptions about the job market closely monitored by economists fell to the lowest in more than five years. The report shows that cheaper gas resulting from a truce in the Middle East helped assuage some of the anxiety Americans have expressed about the economy in recent months. However, views of job opportunities deteriorated and consumers expect little improvement in the coming months.</li>
</ul>

Chip Stocks’ Best Quarter Ever Is Ending With Some Wild Swings

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/c6a05430-6c66-494a-9550-b479011b86c5/transcript

Peterson's Gagnon Doesn't Forecast a Rate Hike in 2016 (Audio)

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