Nvidia, the chipmaker at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom, gave a revenue forecast that fell short of some of the most optimistic estimates, stoking concerns that its explosive growth is waning. Bloomberg Businessweek hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec talk with Bloomberg Technology co-host Ed Ludlow and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Analyst Kunjan Sobhani for instant reaction and analysis for Nvidia's earnings results.
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Let's talk in video and video shares did shed more than two percent ahead of its earnings report that are due in the coming minutes. The stock up more than one hundred and fifty percent so far this year. It is the top performer in the S and P five hundred and the NASDAQ one hundred. Let's go down to Bloomberg Technology co host ed Ludlow, who joins us from our San Francisco bureau, ed the most important numbers you're watching in just a few minutes. When these earnings cross, what are they?
I mean, all of them.
It's probably the most important earnings report in my career, which is not quite as long as both of yours. But you go straight to the data center business, and not necessarily for the quarter gone. We have a good sense of how that will go. Will probably be twenty five billion dollars of data center revenue. You have to go straight to the outlook or the guide for the fiscal third quarter because that answers the only question we have, which is what is the staying power of this AI investment cycle?
And you know the thing is, I think about the expectations, how high they are ed, and we've seen the stock, which we saw it sell off kind of like early or mid June, right, and then yes, we saw an equal bounce like about twenty seven percent from that low over the summer. So expectations going into this are super high, which makes me think, does it have to be a tremendous beat as we've come to expect from this company, otherwise there's going to be a little bit of disappointment or some questions.
Well, let's take the third quarter fiscal third quarter guide example. You know, the average analyst estimate is thirty one point nine billion dollars, but at the very top end of estimates, you're talking thirty eight thirty nine billion dollars. There are some on the street who have very high expectations. I've learned from people like you at Bloomberg over the years. One market session a market does not make. This is a stock up one hundred and fifty percent year to date, but almost one thousand percent from its October twenty twenty two bear market low. It was incredibly overbought January through March, and then again in June and July, and retail investors continue to pile in that sets us up for some tension, I.
Think, yeah, speaking attention, about thirty seconds away from when we are expecting those numbers.
Doc is up one point six percent here ahead of the earnings. So we're just waiting for Nvidia to cross. So we're seeing some trade ahead of the results, actually crossing, some optimistic trading, if you will. As we said, the stock, which was a little bit lower today, it's bouncing here almost two percent here in the aftermarket. So I don't know, seven seconds and we expect these numbers.
Yeah, I'm gonna let Ed Ludlow take a look at his Bloomberg terminal, as we do expect these numbers to take. These numbers to cross imminently right now. As a reminder in Kiga notes, let's do this typically hits at twenty pass all right.
Second quarter revenue folks, thirty billion dollars estimate was twenty eight point eighty six billion, So again that is a beat. Company approving an additional fifty billion dollars in share buyback. Again, the stock up about two and a quarter percent here in the after market.
Yeah, the company c's third quarter revenue at thirty two point five billion plus or minus two percent. The company maintains its quarterly dividend at one cent per share. Second quarter data center revenue that is a very important metric to keep an eye on. That as the vast majority of the company's revenue coming in at twenty six point three billion dollars, beating estimates of twenty five point oh eight billion dollars. So justin gross margin for the second quarter coming in right above, just above estimates, seventy five point seven percent, Carol estimates were for seventy five point five percent.
All right, we're talking with Ed Ludlow, the co host of Bloomberg Technology, and you said the numbers, you're watching all of them, but you did single out initially the data center revenue, which we were expecting about twenty five billion. That's a bee.
Yeah, it's a B.
I mean, I've got the ticker for after I was trade in front of me, and my eyes are bouncing all around, and I think the market's taking a few seconds to make up its mind.
Let's just run through it.
Thirty two point five billion dollars plus all minus two percent is basically, I think in line with the thirty one point nine billion dollars that the street was looking for. I'll do the math on the point in due course. An impressive beat, I suppose on data center revenue in the second court had just gone in overall revenues. Then we asked the question, why why was it better? You know, they telegraphed that pretty well. And my goodness, don't you love it when there's consistency, when something that we were talking about continues to happen. And that is shareholder friendly policy. And I think that fifty billion dollars of edition will share buybacks, no one would be sort of disappointed with that.
The stock up, you know, ish in after hours.
Yeah, you know, we had a we were talking earlier about if things came in in line with expectations, because expectations were so high, you might not see a huge reaction, Carol, Right, even with a fifty billion dollars share buyback, we're barely seeing stock move in the after hours.
Yeah, just up about one percent. Hey, dig it into the press release. You're going to talk with Jensen Wong, founder and CEO n Vidia later on. He says hyper demand remains strong and the anticipation for a blackwell is incredible. He said the company rechieve record revenues as global data centers are in full throttle to modernize the entire computing stack with accelerated computing and generative AI. Like, we know this guy knows how to speak and talk about his company, his market, his industry. But what are you looking for as you go through this press release and what are you thinking about that conversation you're going to have with it?
Yeah, my eyes went straight to the Blackwell commentary and the anticipation being high. Excitement, anticipation are interesting words, but they are not a granular explanation of what's happening with Blackwell. The reporting was that due to the complexity of its design, it has two compute dies basically think about two triangles with a split between them, because it's so big.
It's so much bigger.
Than any other high performance GPU that's gone before it. And the reporting was that this presented a production challenge and so we want some specific detail on that. But again this is classic Jensen Wang that everything is intact, the AI investment cycle is there, and clearly he's bullish because in video is ninety nine percent of the market for this range of AI accelerators.
Shares bouncing around a little bit, but they are now lower by about two point two percent in after hours trading AD I do wonder what the demand story is from customers, and now that we're seeing the latest results from in video, what's the story that you're seeing? I should say shares continue to move lower, down about three percent and after hours.
So this is why we go straight to the guide or outlook for the current period or the fiscal third quarter. Because of the timing of Nvidia's earnings today August twenty eighth, it comes at the end of earning season where the capital expenditures guidance from the biggest Nvidia customers has been and gone. So if you look at the capital expenditures guidance of a Microsoft I think Carol pointed out very smartly that about forty five percent of Microsoft capex goes directly to Nvidia. We knew that they were committed to spending, but how confident is in video in that trend continuing over a longer time horizon. You look at the stop after hours down now almost five percent. One has to keep their feet on the ground and ask is that so severe? Is it so surprising given how high a bar this quarter was and how lofty expectations were.
One hundred and fifty percent higher so far this year at five percent decline after earnings that beat estimates but didn't blow estimates out of the water.
Well, I think you go to the outlook, like you keep you know, emphasizing ed this high idea and I know you put it out on the on the blog of what came in all right, better than what the average estimate was. But when you think about the high numbers that some were expecting almost as much as thirty eight billion dollars for that third corent revenue, like that is going to color how investors, you know, react to this number. They were expecting more, a lot more.
Yeah, And like I know that this is something that Bloomberg people always say, but you also just have to give some sort of context of where the stock trades. Right, it is a stock that trades at thirty eight times forward twelve month earnings. Again, I always look at Relative Strength Index RSI and the terminal, but one data set that I've tracked is that retail investors have absolutely piled into this.
Stock of late.
It had all of the hallmarks of something that was set to swing in. I have direction based on options market trading, and I think the point that I'm making without telling our audience about how the sausage is made too much. One very wise editor said on our planning call that even if it beats expectations or street or consensus estimates, this is a likely outcome because of where we've positioned ourselves in the market going into the print.
Meaning that expectations are just so high for this company.
Correct.
Yeah, Directs, I think, Tim, that's probably the understatement of the century.
Well, you know, you're also dealing with base effects. As we mentioned, the comps are really tough given where this was a year ago and where investors expected to go in terms of growth rate. I mean, as Abigail do a little pointed out on our cair you know they were seeing what north of two hundred percent growth some quarters.
Well, you know, this is something I used to think about with Apple, like when it didn't live up to expectations, it got harder and harder to move the needle on that. And yet when you look at the numbers and I understand it's all relative, and you've got to give the context in terms of growth and so on and so forth. And video is still selling a lot of stuff, right, and it is the game in town if you want those advanced AI chips.
Okay, guys, I'm really sorry to go on attendent. These headlines are super important in videos saying it expects several billion dollars in Blackwell revenues in the fourth quarter. I King's just hit the button on the red headline. I'm not surprised. Yeah, that this was the question that in video makes a commitment to bring a new generation of its AI accelerator to market annually, and there have been the reporting on the design challenges about Blackwell. What in Vidia's confirming is that they will book really really significant revenue on that product in the early stage of its ramp, in the final three months of the calendar year or its fiscal fourth quarter. But they do make a concession that they had to change the Blackwell mask production step. I have to plead ignorance on the technicalities of that. I'm going to run to Ian's desk and ask him, but they are at least talking about it.
I think that this.
Commentary comes from not the earnings released necessarily, but the CFO commentary that comes as an appendix to it.
So we'll dig into that as we go.
Is several billion dollars not sufficient?
Ed, what is several billion dollars?
I mean the relatively significant after hours decline is now sort of less significant. That might give you a sense of how investors feel about that. But I think the idea was that, you know, this is a product that we're not talking I've said this to you guys so many times, and I almost don't apologize for it. When we talk about an AI chip, we're not talking about this little thing you can hold in your hand. The core technology, yes, is probably about the size of a sandwich, but it goes into a rack that goes into a server, a big three hundreundred pounds server box in rows and rows that fill out a data center. And that's the scale that we're talking about. So when you produce it at scale, it presents a challenge. And to me that the shipment of several billion dollars seems substantive in this instance.
Yeah, it's interesting. I feel like, you know, we're going to want a little bit more in terms of specifics about Blackwell and what those shipments in terms of the fourth quarter what exactly means, because that's outlook fourth quarter not so far away, and you do wonder if that's something that moves the needle significantly. This is everything that you know people have been talking about.
Hey, Ed, before we let you go, you have a conversation with Jensen coming up a little later, a special edition of Bloomberg Technology, an exclusive interview with Jensen Wong. Just the last forty five seconds we have with you, give us how without giving away the questions, tell us how you're thinking about this.
Yeah, I think that you know me. I love details.
So I'm going to ask about Blackwell, although it's Bloomberg policy not to give questions in advance of interview, and I'm sure somebody from Nvidia is listening, but that's the question. And then I heard you talking to remain boss Stick about his surprise that revenue comes from just five players. I thought I'd been saying that on our network every week the last two years.
But that is the question.
When do you move beyond that, you want to sell to smaller and medium sized enterprises, governments and other public institutions. Do you have some evidence that that's already happening.
That's a point that Ian King brought up at the top of our two o'clock hour right here on Bloomberg TV in Bloomberg Radio. I'm going to tell Romaine to listen to you more, Ed, so he's not surprised in the future.
Sy A lot going on, all.
Right, Good luck, kiddo. With that, we'll be listening to that interview Ed La La, co host of Bloomberg Technology at Bloomberg TV and again Bloomberg Technology, we'll have that half hour special at six thirty pm Wall Street Time, highlighted by that exclusive interview that Ed will have with the CEO of Nvidio, Jensen Wog. And right now we've got Sure's of Nvidia down about five point one percent here in the aftermarket.
Happening quickly. The reaction has been big. It was nothing and then it was more than it was eight percent. It was like three percent.
Did you go down as much as eight percent at one point. It's been bouncing around and we've seen, yeah, some interesting moves here. And we are seeing as I mentioned, Naszak one undred many futures there down about two percent here, So we're seeing some drag. Not coming and done completely, but it's interesting. Let's see what Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Alice kun John Sabani has to say about that, he joins us. He's out there in our San Francisco bureau. All right, top of mind for you, cun John, tell us about the quarter? Do they do Okay? How's the outlook? It seems like there's a little bit of disappointment here.
Yeah, I mean, I think they did really good as part of our expectations. I'm sure the Nvidia obsesses and might be disappointed given the magnitude of the beat, which we had called out to be in the single digit range, and especially against the lofty, unsustainable expectations that some of the again Nvidia opssis have been forming. But fundamentally in terms of long term, in terms of the competitive landscape, everything remains intact. We don't see any big risks out of this earning so far.
Do you see any softness when it comes to the outlook? Even though it did it exceeded some expectations, it didn't exceed the loftiest expectations. Are you seeing signs of softness with its customers?
I wouldn't call it a softness in terms of demand. I would rather call it more of a timing. I mean, in the given last thirty days, we have come to know about the black Well delays, right, But as we had called out in our preview, there's enough demand for the Hopper series and the supply for that has come along, so they have the ability to ship more and more to this demand, which kept them intact and the guidance still came to a bait. Of course, I think you know, the DLA might actually push out the magnitude of beat which we would have expected into twenty five calendar twenty five, which might actually drive increased to the upside of twenty five numbers. As we get more details on it.
Help can textualize this for us in Video expects to ship several billion dollars of Blackwell revenue in the fourth quarter of the year. I feel like Carol, I'm parsing a fed statement here.
It will kind of vague.
What does several mean? Kun John? Is that a lot? Or is that disappointing to investors?
I wouldn't call it completely disappointing. Again, given what we came to know over the last four weeks. When we were working on the previous two weeks ago, we thought it will be very little volume. So the several billion actually is good in a way and comforting that Okay, there will be some shipment, and it's not completely delayed until the first Q fiscal quarter, so I wouldn't call it completely disappointing.
So we are watching big tech falling after Nvidia their results, as I mentioned, the Nasdaq one under many futures in the aftermarket down one point six percent. Uh, it's you know, I'm looking at the q Q that also we see it down about half a percent. I mean, when it comes to the AI story and the build out and the spend, you sound really comfortable with what we've got from Nvidia, that that narrative, that story, that actuality is still intact. Is that a fair assessment of how you see this?
It is and given we look at the fundamentals, especially from a long term perspective, and not the magnitude of beat and race quarter to quarter. When you look at the disc earning season, almost all of the hyperscalers, the big internet companies, the big cloud players actually announced a beat to their capex and almost across the board to their revenues. Right, So that again validates like the demand is not slowing. Nothing has changed in the last two weeks, just given the Nvidia results. So I agree with your comment that we do feel comfortable around the broader dynamics and the demand tailwinds for the AI chips.
So one of the things we just talked about with ur Ed Ludlow too, is when you look at the supply chain function on Nvidia their top customers, it's kind of a who's who of big megacap tech companies. Microsoft is their number one customer. Forty five percent of their cap X goes to Nvidia Meta number two customer, forty one percent of their CAPEX spend already goes to Nvidia Super micro Computer, which we've been talking about a lot in its woes or alleged woes that one about, I don't know. A big chunk of what they spend also goes to Nvidia. Alphabet is another one, almost fifty percent fifteen of their CAPEX goes to Nvideo. So you have enough confidence that those companies will continue to spend. They are so important right to the Nvidia growth story. So as long as you hear from them that they are spending, you're pretty confident.
Exactly as long as we don't see any negative feedback from them publicly. The confidence that demains. One more point to highlight from the CFO commentary letter. This quarter there percentage of data center revenues from the cloud actually came down to forty five percent. It had been running over fifty percent over the last year. So this is even though on a magnetude terms, a small victory, I still see it as a positive direction that they're diversifying slightly slowly but away from the big cloud customers, and the enterprise and vertical segment is growing significantly faster.
Okay, we got yeah. We heard from Ian King earlier and also from Ed Ludlow earlier about diversification of revenue Konjohn and the idea that the company is looking to get business from governments, smaller companies offloading work that usually would take place in the cloud to stuff that's on prem what's that business from your view look like? Are they making headway there?
They are, definitely. And again the one clear sign is when you parse out the data center into sort of three buckets. One is the cloud customers, right, one is the enterprise, which is a much much more diverse but smaller pockets compared to the cloud, and the other one being the internet and vertical companies. We want to continue seeing the combination of these Internet vertical companies combined with enterprise continue to grow much faster than the cloud. Look, the cloud guys have the biggest wallets, so they are definitely going to drive a majority of the growth. But we want that percentage that moved from fifty to forty five to continue moving slower. At the same time, in media revenues continue to grow as well.
Just to reset everybody, because nvideo results they are out. They've been out now for I don't know about fifteen minutes or so. Our headline story written by Bloomberg's Ian King, who we talked to at two o'clock ahead of this. And Nvidia, which is really the chip maker at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom gave a revenue forecast that fell short of some of the most optimistic estimates. Token conser learns that its explosive growth is waning. Third quarter revenue will be about thirty two point five billion. The company just put that out. Analysts had predicted thirty one point nine billion on average, so that was a beat, but some estimates range as high as thirty seven point nine billion, so almost thirty eight billion sales in the fiscal second quarter, which ran through July. They though Tim did top analyst projection.
I'm looking at Eddian King's commentary on our live blog, which you should all check out while you're listening to us on Bloomberg Radio or watching us on YouTube or Bloomberg Originals. He writes that most questions will zero in on how many billions of dollars in revenue Blackwell will generate in the fourth quarter. Yeah, that's that's the question we've been asking.
Yeah, absolutely right, this is what we want to know. So you know, we're talking also with Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Alice Kunjohn Sabani who is joining us, and you seem very comfortable with the report. Stock now just down about one and a half percent, so there's been a lot of bouncing around in the aftermarket. What if you were sitting down with the CEO as our Ed Ludlow is going to be doing at six pm Wall Street time or six is it six PMOS six six thirty pm Wall Street time? What would be some of your top questions that you'd want to ask? Jensen Wang, co founder and CEO of the company.
Well, I would definitely want to get extract as much color as I can into the calendar. Twenty five outlook. I know he might not provide that, but any more color I can get on the volume or the dollar outlook for the Blackwell series would be really would shun all the concerns that we have right now and sort of put to bed all the uncertainty.
All right. That really helps a lot because it does feel like it all comes down to Blackwell, right. It was kind of going in Kunjan, Thank you so much. Look forward to reading your research that'll come out a little bit later and into tomorrow. Bloomberg Intelligence senior semiconductor analysts kujoh and Sabani on those Nvidia earnings