Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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One of the most red topics are stories on the Bloomberg terminal today has to do with Israel. The International Criminal Court issued an in rest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netnyahu for alleged war crimes. Thatt's break that down with Dan Williams. He's a reporter for Bloomberg News. He is based in Jerusalem.

One of the most red topics are stories on the Bloomberg terminal today has to do with Israel. The International Criminal Court issued an in rest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netnyahu for alleged war crimes. Thatt's break that down with Dan Williams. He's a reporter for Bloomberg News. He is based in Jerusalem.

Dan, give us his story here. What does this really mean? Because the headline kind of jumps out of you here.

Dan, give us his story here. What does this really mean? Because the headline kind of jumps out of you here.

It is a dramatic development. We've now seen some thirteen and a half months of open warfare between Israel, Hamas and Israel and Hasbela and Lebanon and other Iranian backparties in the region that has now evolved into open law fare with this very important court issuing arrest warrants against the is Raeti Prime Minister benjaminter Now and the former Defense Minister Joaf Gallant. Those are arrest warrants that are actually binding on more than one hundred and twenty countries that are signatories to the treaty that underpins that court's conduct. Israel is not a signatory, neither is the United States. Israel had sought, however, to contest this request for the arrest warrants. That failed, as we discovered today, with the court saying it had rejected these raady motions and upheld and actually decided to issue those arrest warrants as sought by the Special Prosecutor.

It is a dramatic development. We've now seen some thirteen and a half months of open warfare between Israel, Hamas and Israel and Hasbela and Lebanon and other Iranian backparties in the region that has now evolved into open law fare with this very important court issuing arrest warrants against the is Raeti Prime Minister benjaminter Now and the former Defense Minister Joaf Gallant. Those are arrest warrants that are actually binding on more than one hundred and twenty countries that are signatories to the treaty that underpins that court's conduct. Israel is not a signatory, neither is the United States. Israel had sought, however, to contest this request for the arrest warrants. That failed, as we discovered today, with the court saying it had rejected these raady motions and upheld and actually decided to issue those arrest warrants as sought by the Special Prosecutor.

Has a United States made any statement on this matter, because the support for Israel a generally quite strong in the United States.

Has a United States made any statement on this matter, because the support for Israel a generally quite strong in the United States.

Indeed, and throughout these proceedings, we're talking about several months of anticipation. I believe the Special Prosecutor formally filed his request for arrest warrants back in late May. The Biden minister stration said openly that it thought this was baseless. Israel has obviously been far more vociferous, calling this antisemitic, likening it to the infamous Dreyfus trial. I think both countries will be looking to what the next US administration, the Trump administration, will do, and significant parties in that administration are already saying that when the time comes, they will double down on their support for Israel. The question is what does that mean. Are they going to try to convince like minded countries in Western Europe to withdraw from the court or on an individual level, to state that they will not abide they will not honor these arrest warrants. As I said, it's dramatic development, and I think these Raelis will be strategizing very very intensely. Right now.

Indeed, and throughout these proceedings, we're talking about several months of anticipation. I believe the Special Prosecutor formally filed his request for arrest warrants back in late May. The Biden minister stration said openly that it thought this was baseless. Israel has obviously been far more vociferous, calling this antisemitic, likening it to the infamous Dreyfus trial. I think both countries will be looking to what the next US administration, the Trump administration, will do, and significant parties in that administration are already saying that when the time comes, they will double down on their support for Israel. The question is what does that mean. Are they going to try to convince like minded countries in Western Europe to withdraw from the court or on an individual level, to state that they will not abide they will not honor these arrest warrants. As I said, it's dramatic development, and I think these Raelis will be strategizing very very intensely. Right now.

Do we why historically have has Israel and the United States not been a party to this court?

Do we why historically have has Israel and the United States not been a party to this court?

I think it comes down to a fear for their autonomy. Also the fact that, certainly since the War on Terror, the United States has been waging a time quite unilateral national security policies abroad, wars that did not always have international support. I think the argument is that this would effectively intrude on self determination, self defense, the sovereign rights of a country. And also they would argue that this court is designed to bring justice to countries where there's no working inside internal organic justice system. Now Israel says it's justicism works perfectly fine. It's had the support of some Western countries for that, but it seems that the ICC has decided not to find in favor of that point of view this time. So in effect, Israel or at least these two leaders will be treated like pariahs in many of the countries that are required to abide by it. It's a development that I think NETANIAO will find very very unwelcome.

I think it comes down to a fear for their autonomy. Also the fact that, certainly since the War on Terror, the United States has been waging a time quite unilateral national security policies abroad, wars that did not always have international support. I think the argument is that this would effectively intrude on self determination, self defense, the sovereign rights of a country. And also they would argue that this court is designed to bring justice to countries where there's no working inside internal organic justice system. Now Israel says it's justicism works perfectly fine. It's had the support of some Western countries for that, but it seems that the ICC has decided not to find in favor of that point of view this time. So in effect, Israel or at least these two leaders will be treated like pariahs in many of the countries that are required to abide by it. It's a development that I think NETANIAO will find very very unwelcome.

I can imagine, Dan, where is just to educate us? Where is the International Criminal Court?

I can imagine, Dan, where is just to educate us? Where is the International Criminal Court?

Where is it based?

Where is it based?

And are there are certain countries that have particular influence on this court?

And are there are certain countries that have particular influence on this court?

It's at Behague in the Netherlands. That's also where the International Court of Justices. That's a court with slightly different mandate and different jurisdiction. And again it's an extension of various treaties and conventions that arose, especially off to World War Two. The bulk of the world's countries are signatories. It means they have standing to argue, to submit. It also requires them to enflse when warrants, when decisions such as has come down.

It's at Behague in the Netherlands. That's also where the International Court of Justices. That's a court with slightly different mandate and different jurisdiction. And again it's an extension of various treaties and conventions that arose, especially off to World War Two. The bulk of the world's countries are signatories. It means they have standing to argue, to submit. It also requires them to enflse when warrants, when decisions such as has come down.

All right, Dan, thank you so much for your reporting. We really appreciate that. Dan Williams, he's a reporter for Bloomberg News. He's based in Jerusalem. Again on the geopolitical front, just another major development, the International Criminal Court issues and arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister of Benjamin at Yaou for alleged war crimes, and we appreciate getting that on the ground reporting from Israeli.

All right, Dan, thank you so much for your reporting. We really appreciate that. Dan Williams, he's a reporter for Bloomberg News. He's based in Jerusalem. Again on the geopolitical front, just another major development, the International Criminal Court issues and arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister of Benjamin at Yaou for alleged war crimes, and we appreciate getting that on the ground reporting from Israeli.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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All right, offspring number four bought in video.

All right, offspring number four bought in video.

He's down on his trade and he bought it from his brother who works in the financial services industry.

He's down on his trade and he bought it from his brother who works in the financial services industry.

So we were on a.

So we were on a.

Conference call yesterday heated talking about breaking down the quarter for in video.

Conference call yesterday heated talking about breaking down the quarter for in video.

I thought the numbers were good.

I thought the numbers were good.

Let's talk to an expert man deep seeing senior technology analys from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Let's talk to an expert man deep seeing senior technology analys from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Mandy, what you think of it?

Mandy, what you think of it?

The numbers came in, you know, a little bit better and expected guidance pretty solid, but again the whisper was probably a little bit higher.

The numbers came in, you know, a little bit better and expected guidance pretty solid, but again the whisper was probably a little bit higher.

So yeah, and look, when you have a price for perfection, that Invidia is always you know, any slight miss in the networking side, which was the case here, or even a gross margin degradation, which they said we'll go up in the second half of next year. So it's really a transitory thing. We'll have an impact on the stock, and I think overall the demand side looks pretty solid. They said, they've Jensen called out there will be no Capex digestion until the data center spending hits a trillion dollars.

So yeah, and look, when you have a price for perfection, that Invidia is always you know, any slight miss in the networking side, which was the case here, or even a gross margin degradation, which they said we'll go up in the second half of next year. So it's really a transitory thing. We'll have an impact on the stock, and I think overall the demand side looks pretty solid. They said, they've Jensen called out there will be no Capex digestion until the data center spending hits a trillion dollars.

That's huge.

That's huge.

I mean, just think about you know how much runway he thinks without a pause. Now does the market believe it? Probably not, given what we heard at our conference yesterday is it's moving from training to inferencing, and on the inferencing side there is probably more. So if once you have a train model, you're deploying that model in co pilots or chat pots and it's basically a train model that's being used for answering queries and that's inferencing answering queries or you know, providing some productivity benefit. And that's where do you really need a high end in video chip? The answer is divided. Some people say for the older versions of in video chips, you could use that for inferencing, the latest one will continue to get used for training. And that's a plausible answer. But as we have learned, there is growing competition on the inferencing side from the likes of AMD, as well as startups like sam Bnova, Cerebras and all these companies are trying to get some portion of that pie.

I mean, just think about you know how much runway he thinks without a pause. Now does the market believe it? Probably not, given what we heard at our conference yesterday is it's moving from training to inferencing, and on the inferencing side there is probably more. So if once you have a train model, you're deploying that model in co pilots or chat pots and it's basically a train model that's being used for answering queries and that's inferencing answering queries or you know, providing some productivity benefit. And that's where do you really need a high end in video chip? The answer is divided. Some people say for the older versions of in video chips, you could use that for inferencing, the latest one will continue to get used for training. And that's a plausible answer. But as we have learned, there is growing competition on the inferencing side from the likes of AMD, as well as startups like sam Bnova, Cerebras and all these companies are trying to get some portion of that pie.

And folks, Ben Deep was referencing a conference he hosted yesterday and annaag Rana are other technology channels to Bloomberg Intelligence. It was a phenomenal conference. I mean, they had some just amazing speakers there. And the next time you get something in near your mail saying hey, come to a BI sponsored conference, get off your ear end and get to these conferences because some seriously smart people get together and you learn a lot. I did hosting a couple panels yesterday.

And folks, Ben Deep was referencing a conference he hosted yesterday and annaag Rana are other technology channels to Bloomberg Intelligence. It was a phenomenal conference. I mean, they had some just amazing speakers there. And the next time you get something in near your mail saying hey, come to a BI sponsored conference, get off your ear end and get to these conferences because some seriously smart people get together and you learn a lot. I did hosting a couple panels yesterday.

Men Deep, So.

Men Deep, So.

When you listen to this the management team in Nvidia, where do they say, I mean, can they look a year, two years in advance, how do they think their business is going to develop?

When you listen to this the management team in Nvidia, where do they say, I mean, can they look a year, two years in advance, how do they think their business is going to develop?

Yeah?

Yeah?

I mean look the fact that they're saying growth margins will go down to around seventy one percent over the next two quarters, but readbound seventy one seventy one real smart, Yes, wow, and it's it's again terrific when you look at it from every angle. Is just the way expectations were priced for it's mid seventy percent. So the fact that they are going down to seventy one percent, but in Jensen's you know case, he called out those margins going back to seventy five percent. So it's really a ramp up of their new architecture Blackwell, which is causing the transitory gross margin degradation. But once they get that in full production, he expects gross margins to go back to seventy five percent. Now I do think again there will be more competition, but he clearly doesn't believe that to be the case.

I mean look the fact that they're saying growth margins will go down to around seventy one percent over the next two quarters, but readbound seventy one seventy one real smart, Yes, wow, and it's it's again terrific when you look at it from every angle. Is just the way expectations were priced for it's mid seventy percent. So the fact that they are going down to seventy one percent, but in Jensen's you know case, he called out those margins going back to seventy five percent. So it's really a ramp up of their new architecture Blackwell, which is causing the transitory gross margin degradation. But once they get that in full production, he expects gross margins to go back to seventy five percent. Now I do think again there will be more competition, but he clearly doesn't believe that to be the case.

All Right, I mean, here are just some crazy numbers of folks. Just total revenue. Let's let's got really simple here. Revenue roughly calendar year twenty two, twenty seven billion of revenue. Calendar you're twenty four one hundred and twenty eight billion of revenue. Have you seen anything like this in technology?

All Right, I mean, here are just some crazy numbers of folks. Just total revenue. Let's let's got really simple here. Revenue roughly calendar year twenty two, twenty seven billion of revenue. Calendar you're twenty four one hundred and twenty eight billion of revenue. Have you seen anything like this in technology?

I mean, the closest thing that comes to mind is the buildout out of the Internet infrastructure back in nineteen ninety nine. I think Cisco had a similar ramp up on the networking side. But what's different is Innvidia clearly has the balance sheet as well as they are in more products than Cisco was. So Cisco was just providing the networking gear. Nvidia has a software line, they have a networking business and then their coreship business. So clearly Nvidia is going with the.

I mean, the closest thing that comes to mind is the buildout out of the Internet infrastructure back in nineteen ninety nine. I think Cisco had a similar ramp up on the networking side. But what's different is Innvidia clearly has the balance sheet as well as they are in more products than Cisco was. So Cisco was just providing the networking gear. Nvidia has a software line, they have a networking business and then their coreship business. So clearly Nvidia is going with the.

Platform of a stupid income statement. They have fifty five percent net income margins, so and they have no capex to speak of two three four point so the free cash flow is just freakish. So what do they do with the cash?

Platform of a stupid income statement. They have fifty five percent net income margins, so and they have no capex to speak of two three four point so the free cash flow is just freakish. So what do they do with the cash?

Well, right now they're doing some share buybacks, but acquisitions maybe on the table if the incoming Trump administration loses the regulation.

Well, right now they're doing some share buybacks, but acquisitions maybe on the table if the incoming Trump administration loses the regulation.

So okay, let's go down that road there.

So okay, let's go down that road there.

What's the feeling in Silicon Valley in technology about that opportunity, Because, boy, your industry and particularly some of the bigger companies that you cover, the Amazons of the world, the Google's the world, they can't do anything these days. Is the expectation that might loosen up.

What's the feeling in Silicon Valley in technology about that opportunity, Because, boy, your industry and particularly some of the bigger companies that you cover, the Amazons of the world, the Google's the world, they can't do anything these days. Is the expectation that might loosen up.

Well, the overall m andy environment an ip environment may get better, but in terms of big tech, I doubt it's anything is changing on that front. Especially for the likes of Alphabet and Meta. Probably an Apple or an Nvidia may be able to do more acquisitions, but I think the companies that are in the crosshairs of you know what the incoming administration feels on the consumer side, I doubt they'll allow them to make any fur their acquisition.

Well, the overall m andy environment an ip environment may get better, but in terms of big tech, I doubt it's anything is changing on that front. Especially for the likes of Alphabet and Meta. Probably an Apple or an Nvidia may be able to do more acquisitions, but I think the companies that are in the crosshairs of you know what the incoming administration feels on the consumer side, I doubt they'll allow them to make any fur their acquisition.

All right, man, thanks so much for coming in here, Man deep seeing senior technology analyst Bloomberg Intelligence through and a rag Randa through a great technology conference yesterday packed full of some really smart investors. Again, folks, the next time you get an invite in your Bloomberg inbox, jump on it because BI is sponsoring some really good investor conferences.

All right, man, thanks so much for coming in here, Man deep seeing senior technology analyst Bloomberg Intelligence through and a rag Randa through a great technology conference yesterday packed full of some really smart investors. Again, folks, the next time you get an invite in your Bloomberg inbox, jump on it because BI is sponsoring some really good investor conferences.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Focar, playing Android OUTO with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Let's get back to these markets again. We've kind of got red and green on the screen. The Nasdaq's off about one percent, but the SMP and NADAL are up slightly. Let's get a sense of where we go here as we wrap up this earning season. Maryon Bartel's chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth. Here, Mariann, thanks so much for joining us here. Love to just step back, you know, maybe get a thirty thousand foot view from you on these markets. What are you talking to your clients about here today, because boy, a lot has changed in the last couple of weeks with elections and geopolitics and earnings and a lot of moving parts out there.

Let's get back to these markets again. We've kind of got red and green on the screen. The Nasdaq's off about one percent, but the SMP and NADAL are up slightly. Let's get a sense of where we go here as we wrap up this earning season. Maryon Bartel's chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth. Here, Mariann, thanks so much for joining us here. Love to just step back, you know, maybe get a thirty thousand foot view from you on these markets. What are you talking to your clients about here today, because boy, a lot has changed in the last couple of weeks with elections and geopolitics and earnings and a lot of moving parts out there.

Well, we just released our twenty twenty five year ahead forecast and the name of it, or the title of it is all that's new, that's old. Yes, we have AI, we have blockchain augmented technology, and we believe that this is really altering not just the US economy but the global economies. And we've likened this to similar periods from nineteen ninety five to two thousand, but also from twenty five to twenty nine, where we also had new technologies, although they don't feel like new technologies. You know, the automobile, the railroads, and markets did phenomenally well because economies grew. So we believe we're in this extraordinary, you know, growth cycle being led by right now in Vidia, which we talked about. They're really altering the next generation of technology. So we have our forecast for the SMP for next year at seventy two hundred to seventy four hundred.

Well, we just released our twenty twenty five year ahead forecast and the name of it, or the title of it is all that's new, that's old. Yes, we have AI, we have blockchain augmented technology, and we believe that this is really altering not just the US economy but the global economies. And we've likened this to similar periods from nineteen ninety five to two thousand, but also from twenty five to twenty nine, where we also had new technologies, although they don't feel like new technologies. You know, the automobile, the railroads, and markets did phenomenally well because economies grew. So we believe we're in this extraordinary, you know, growth cycle being led by right now in Vidia, which we talked about. They're really altering the next generation of technology. So we have our forecast for the SMP for next year at seventy two hundred to seventy four hundred.

Wow and yees.

Wow and yees.

That means another twenty percent. But when we went back and analyzed the nineties, from ninety five to two thousand, we had markets up twenty percent or higher five years in a row. Now, in ninety seven and ninety eight we had bear market corrections within the year because we had a tie back crisis, We had a rush of default in the long term capital, a little bit of a financial crisis, but those markets still rallied strongly by the end of the year, and we think we're in a very similar position.

That means another twenty percent. But when we went back and analyzed the nineties, from ninety five to two thousand, we had markets up twenty percent or higher five years in a row. Now, in ninety seven and ninety eight we had bear market corrections within the year because we had a tie back crisis, We had a rush of default in the long term capital, a little bit of a financial crisis, but those markets still rallied strongly by the end of the year, and we think we're in a very similar position.

Talk to us about earnings. What did you take away from this earning cycle. We're just wrapping up with some retailers this week. What is your view of earnings out there again? To get to that, you know, any kind of S ANDP handle with a seven in front of it, you have to be pretty bullish, I would think on earnings.

Talk to us about earnings. What did you take away from this earning cycle. We're just wrapping up with some retailers this week. What is your view of earnings out there again? To get to that, you know, any kind of S ANDP handle with a seven in front of it, you have to be pretty bullish, I would think on earnings.

I am.

I am.

I think there's a lot to do with earnings. Markets really need earnings to grow, and we see the economy growing next year, especially since we've already had a seventy five basis point cut by the Fed. Now they may slow the pace, but they're more in an easing cycle, which we think is going to be very bullish considering the economy is growing around three percent and we're at full employment. The consumer has money to spend. Household network is at a record high. When we look at disposable income, there's enough disposable income for the consumer to spend, and as you know in your viewers know, the consumer really is the main driver of our economy. So we do think the cycle is being led by technology. This year it's been really all about Semis. We think that narrative is shifting a little bit more now to software. Not that we're negative on semis, but we think the pace of their ascent can slow down, and now we see a cycle of software growing as we go into twenty twenty five. Another positive for earnings is the steeple yield curve for banks, and we also like the capital markets. Those are important ingredients to keep an economy going. I always say the banks are the heartbeat of the economy and the private markets, the private credit markets are flesh with liquidity to provide to companies. So we're very optimistic and we see also profit margins growing, so we think we're really in that goldilocks environment.

I think there's a lot to do with earnings. Markets really need earnings to grow, and we see the economy growing next year, especially since we've already had a seventy five basis point cut by the Fed. Now they may slow the pace, but they're more in an easing cycle, which we think is going to be very bullish considering the economy is growing around three percent and we're at full employment. The consumer has money to spend. Household network is at a record high. When we look at disposable income, there's enough disposable income for the consumer to spend, and as you know in your viewers know, the consumer really is the main driver of our economy. So we do think the cycle is being led by technology. This year it's been really all about Semis. We think that narrative is shifting a little bit more now to software. Not that we're negative on semis, but we think the pace of their ascent can slow down, and now we see a cycle of software growing as we go into twenty twenty five. Another positive for earnings is the steeple yield curve for banks, and we also like the capital markets. Those are important ingredients to keep an economy going. I always say the banks are the heartbeat of the economy and the private markets, the private credit markets are flesh with liquidity to provide to companies. So we're very optimistic and we see also profit margins growing, so we think we're really in that goldilocks environment.

Well, I think I may be calling the top in the tech market because my youngest offspring just bought some invidious and that's got to be the top. So if I wanted to diversify Marianna and try to find some value out there, where do I go?

Well, I think I may be calling the top in the tech market because my youngest offspring just bought some invidious and that's got to be the top. So if I wanted to diversify Marianna and try to find some value out there, where do I go?

So we think the best if you're looking for value, we do think the best value is in the financials, particularly in the banks and also the capital markets. You know, energy is good value, but we don't really see crude oil firming up. We think crew going into twenty twenty five is going to be either range or too slightly down. Especially with the Trump administration, there's concern that we'll add to supply, and if you add to supply in a weaker demand environment which we're in, particularly because of China, we think that, you know, energy is really not the place to be for twenty twenty five, at least for value. So the values really I think best in financials. Which really shocking is you know, healthcare and staples, which are really called your defensive part of your market, are really falling off a cliff in terms of relative performance, we really don't even see any value in there. So best place for value would be the financials.

So we think the best if you're looking for value, we do think the best value is in the financials, particularly in the banks and also the capital markets. You know, energy is good value, but we don't really see crude oil firming up. We think crew going into twenty twenty five is going to be either range or too slightly down. Especially with the Trump administration, there's concern that we'll add to supply, and if you add to supply in a weaker demand environment which we're in, particularly because of China, we think that, you know, energy is really not the place to be for twenty twenty five, at least for value. So the values really I think best in financials. Which really shocking is you know, healthcare and staples, which are really called your defensive part of your market, are really falling off a cliff in terms of relative performance, we really don't even see any value in there. So best place for value would be the financials.

Marian, how about outside the US do you guys allocate any many outside of the US markets?

Marian, how about outside the US do you guys allocate any many outside of the US markets?

You know, in terms of asset allocation when you look at asset allocation models over a very long term period, diversifying internationally does work. But our thesis going into twenty twenty five, if we are correct that we're in this new technological advance, most of the technologies being developed here in the United States, and that means you have to own the companies here in the United States. So we see capital flows continuing to come to the United States. So although markets we think can go up outside of the United States, we think the leader of the pack will remain in the United States. Now it may be choppy back and forth, you know, up down, updown, but by the end of the year, we still think the US will do well. And then you have to consider the US dollar, and we see the US dollar as either being stable too strong. So when you invest overseas, if the dollar strengthens, you lose part of your return. So for you know, twenty twenty five, we have an overweight to the US.

You know, in terms of asset allocation when you look at asset allocation models over a very long term period, diversifying internationally does work. But our thesis going into twenty twenty five, if we are correct that we're in this new technological advance, most of the technologies being developed here in the United States, and that means you have to own the companies here in the United States. So we see capital flows continuing to come to the United States. So although markets we think can go up outside of the United States, we think the leader of the pack will remain in the United States. Now it may be choppy back and forth, you know, up down, updown, but by the end of the year, we still think the US will do well. And then you have to consider the US dollar, and we see the US dollar as either being stable too strong. So when you invest overseas, if the dollar strengthens, you lose part of your return. So for you know, twenty twenty five, we have an overweight to the US.

All right, Mary, and thank you so much. We appreciate that.

All right, Mary, and thank you so much. We appreciate that.

Marion Bartel's she's a chief investment strategist for Sanctuary Wealth. Joining us from New York via some zoom.

Marion Bartel's she's a chief investment strategist for Sanctuary Wealth. Joining us from New York via some zoom.

Here, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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All right, Alexe on Pauls.

All right, Alexe on Pauls.

When you're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio or streaming live on YouTube as well as to check us out of Bloomberg, go over to YouTube dot com and search Bloomberg Podcast. All right, Bitcoin, I'm calling it out for Tom Keen. I'm calling out from Matt Miller. Up one point eight percent ninety six thousand, two hundred. I mean, we are right on that one hundred thousand dollars level. Let's break down what's happening. Let's see what could be behind some of this stuff. Michael Reagan, he's a crypto team leader. Yes, we have a team of reporters covering crypto at Bloomberg, which means you need a team leader to manage these folks, and that's Michael Reagan. He drew the short stroll. He joins us here on at Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. At the election, I'm just gonna swag it here, it was about sixty thousand. Here we are pushing up against one hundred thousand.

When you're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio or streaming live on YouTube as well as to check us out of Bloomberg, go over to YouTube dot com and search Bloomberg Podcast. All right, Bitcoin, I'm calling it out for Tom Keen. I'm calling out from Matt Miller. Up one point eight percent ninety six thousand, two hundred. I mean, we are right on that one hundred thousand dollars level. Let's break down what's happening. Let's see what could be behind some of this stuff. Michael Reagan, he's a crypto team leader. Yes, we have a team of reporters covering crypto at Bloomberg, which means you need a team leader to manage these folks, and that's Michael Reagan. He drew the short stroll. He joins us here on at Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. At the election, I'm just gonna swag it here, it was about sixty thousand. Here we are pushing up against one hundred thousand.

What accounts for that delta?

What accounts for that delta?

Yeah, you know the expression I keep hearing over and over again, Paul's paradigm shift. You know, we went from sort of the near death of the entire industry with FTX and all the dominoes that fell after it a few years ago. Biden followed up the administration. Biden administration followed up with a really fierce crackdown on the industry.

Yeah, you know the expression I keep hearing over and over again, Paul's paradigm shift. You know, we went from sort of the near death of the entire industry with FTX and all the dominoes that fell after it a few years ago. Biden followed up the administration. Biden administration followed up with a really fierce crackdown on the industry.

Now what Trump.

Now what Trump.

Has signaled as a complete one eighty, you know, instead of this you know, highly regulated, very intense scrutiny on the industry, he's talking about, you know, replacing Gary Gensler with a crypto lover and just you know, really being friendly to the to the broader industry of digital assets. But the real for bitcoin specifically, it's this promise that Trump made in July at a bitcoin conference to create what he called a strategic bitcoin stockpile. So, you know, think of the strategic petroleum reserve. You know, we've had strategic wheat reserves in the past.

Has signaled as a complete one eighty, you know, instead of this you know, highly regulated, very intense scrutiny on the industry, he's talking about, you know, replacing Gary Gensler with a crypto lover and just you know, really being friendly to the to the broader industry of digital assets. But the real for bitcoin specifically, it's this promise that Trump made in July at a bitcoin conference to create what he called a strategic bitcoin stockpile. So, you know, think of the strategic petroleum reserve. You know, we've had strategic wheat reserves in the past.

You know.

You know.

The thinking of him and Synthonia Loomis, his ally and the Senate, the senator from Wyoming, is that if you not only Trump. First of all, the government owns about two hundred and change bitcoin from various criminal ASCID forfeitures.

The thinking of him and Synthonia Loomis, his ally and the Senate, the senator from Wyoming, is that if you not only Trump. First of all, the government owns about two hundred and change bitcoin from various criminal ASCID forfeitures.

That's why I know that.

That's why I know that.

Okay, So that's sort of the what Trump has hinted would be the basis for this reserve. Senator Loomis wants to go even further and have the government by one million, nothing short of one million bitcoins. We're talking about one hundred billioncoins are out there for you.

Okay, So that's sort of the what Trump has hinted would be the basis for this reserve. Senator Loomis wants to go even further and have the government by one million, nothing short of one million bitcoins. We're talking about one hundred billioncoins are out there for you.

That's about five percent meaning the total amount. Yeah, so.

That's about five percent meaning the total amount. Yeah, so.

You know, a big question mark, a big event risk looming over this market if that bill does not sort of gain more support. So far, she's the only sponsor of it. There is quite a bit of skepticism that she'll be able to get that passed, but the market is thinking there's a good chance of that, and not only that that other governments will have.

You know, a big question mark, a big event risk looming over this market if that bill does not sort of gain more support. So far, she's the only sponsor of it. There is quite a bit of skepticism that she'll be able to get that passed, but the market is thinking there's a good chance of that, and not only that that other governments will have.

To follow suit.

To follow suit.

You know, if if the US suddenly is treating bitcoin like a major reserve asset, you know other governments will likely be inspired her to do the same. So that's kind of the backdrop for this just parabolic rally to the upside that we've seen.

You know, if if the US suddenly is treating bitcoin like a major reserve asset, you know other governments will likely be inspired her to do the same. So that's kind of the backdrop for this just parabolic rally to the upside that we've seen.

Because right now it sounds a little bit like they would like to think about bitcoin the way we currently think about gold, where we have gold sitting at Fort Knox.

Because right now it sounds a little bit like they would like to think about bitcoin the way we currently think about gold, where we have gold sitting at Fort Knox.

That that's exactly right, and what the Loomis Bill would do would be sell.

That that's exactly right, and what the Loomis Bill would do would be sell.

Off some of that.

Off some of that.

The FED doesn't own physical gold, they owned certificates that represent gold held in Fort Knox by the Treasury. Her bill would require the Fed to start selling gold to buy bitcoin. Wow, just sort of replace it as a reserve asset. Now, obviously, you know you think about telegraphing to the market one hundred billion buy at today's prices, I mean Skuy's limit on the price.

The FED doesn't own physical gold, they owned certificates that represent gold held in Fort Knox by the Treasury. Her bill would require the Fed to start selling gold to buy bitcoin. Wow, just sort of replace it as a reserve asset. Now, obviously, you know you think about telegraphing to the market one hundred billion buy at today's prices, I mean Skuy's limit on the price.

That that's the thinking at least.

That that's the thinking at least.

Because it's I mean, is what I know about bitcoin I learned from Mike mcgloane, A fixed, if not declining supply and presumably ever more right cases.

Because it's I mean, is what I know about bitcoin I learned from Mike mcgloane, A fixed, if not declining supply and presumably ever more right cases.

Yeah, every four years, every four years, the or so the amount that's mine.

Yeah, every four years, every four years, the or so the amount that's mine.

That's the new supply.

That's the new supply.

It gets cut in half, so that that proposed government buy would actually overwhelm the amount.

It gets cut in half, so that that proposed government buy would actually overwhelm the amount.

That's mind all right.

That's mind all right.

Another thing that Trump's transition team is discussing the creation of a White House post dedicated to digital asset policy.

Another thing that Trump's transition team is discussing the creation of a White House post dedicated to digital asset policy.

Yeah that's yesterday. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah that's yesterday. Yeah. Yeah.

It's still sort of a lot of questions about what exactly that would mean. But the idea is, you know, give the crypto industry sort of a representative in the White House to manage what they want to do with regulations and that sort of thing. Again, just another sign of this sort of one hundred and eighty degree paradigm shift in how the government will think about crypto and bitcoin, especially under a Trump presidency, compared to the very tough crackdown that we saw under President Biden. So a real dramatic yes change that.

It's still sort of a lot of questions about what exactly that would mean. But the idea is, you know, give the crypto industry sort of a representative in the White House to manage what they want to do with regulations and that sort of thing. Again, just another sign of this sort of one hundred and eighty degree paradigm shift in how the government will think about crypto and bitcoin, especially under a Trump presidency, compared to the very tough crackdown that we saw under President Biden. So a real dramatic yes change that.

So I'm asking myself, how do we get to sixty thousand, one hundred thousand? That sounds like the reason that sounds like three. It feels like Elon musk Is kind of has his fingerprints on.

So I'm asking myself, how do we get to sixty thousand, one hundred thousand? That sounds like the reason that sounds like three. It feels like Elon musk Is kind of has his fingerprints on.

Some of this.

Some of this.

Yeah, yeah, I mean he's a crypto officionado for for sure. You know, we name the Department of Government Efficiencies is just named after a meme coin. But I would throw in Michael Sailor and micro strategy is another really important element here. You know, he's tapping capital markets for forty two billion, telling the world what he's gonna do with it, just buy more bitcoin, and his stock is even outperforming bitcoin itself by tremendous amounts.

Yeah, yeah, I mean he's a crypto officionado for for sure. You know, we name the Department of Government Efficiencies is just named after a meme coin. But I would throw in Michael Sailor and micro strategy is another really important element here. You know, he's tapping capital markets for forty two billion, telling the world what he's gonna do with it, just buy more bitcoin, and his stock is even outperforming bitcoin itself by tremendous amounts.

So it's it's really an interesting time to watch all this unfold.

So it's it's really an interesting time to watch all this unfold.

All right, folks.

All right, folks.

I mean, we have twenty four hundred reporters around the world of Bloomberg News. Many of them, some of our best are have been and continue to be dedicated to this whole crypto market and reporting on the crypto market. And you know, at least I know how serious Bloomberg News is about cryptos. And when they appoint Michael Reagan to be a team leader because he's been doing this stuff a long time, he knows good journalism, and he's put Michael Reagan on top of this team, that means we're serious about a coverage of crypto.

I mean, we have twenty four hundred reporters around the world of Bloomberg News. Many of them, some of our best are have been and continue to be dedicated to this whole crypto market and reporting on the crypto market. And you know, at least I know how serious Bloomberg News is about cryptos. And when they appoint Michael Reagan to be a team leader because he's been doing this stuff a long time, he knows good journalism, and he's put Michael Reagan on top of this team, that means we're serious about a coverage of crypto.

So we'll stay on top of this stuff.

So we'll stay on top of this stuff.

But again, you know, looking at the bitcoin up twenty three hundred bucks here today, just under ninety seven thousand dollars per token. A lot of folks out there make it some big bets on crypto. Again, my youngest who bought some Nvidia, just recently talked me about buying bitcoin. I said, not with any of the money I've contributed to your account. If you want to go out and spend some of your money, go ahead. So that's how we think about Here.

But again, you know, looking at the bitcoin up twenty three hundred bucks here today, just under ninety seven thousand dollars per token. A lot of folks out there make it some big bets on crypto. Again, my youngest who bought some Nvidia, just recently talked me about buying bitcoin. I said, not with any of the money I've contributed to your account. If you want to go out and spend some of your money, go ahead. So that's how we think about Here.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Alex Steel here alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We are broadcasting to live from our Renactive Broker Studio Interactive. I don't know what word I said, but Interactive Broker Studio works right here in midtown Manhattan.

Alex Steel here alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We are broadcasting to live from our Renactive Broker Studio Interactive. I don't know what word I said, but Interactive Broker Studio works right here in midtown Manhattan.

So NI video was.

So NI video was.

Being billed as like the market mover for the rest of the year, that it was more important than the Fed, it was more important than any jobs data or inflation. But now it's over. So now what David khod Love founder's CEO and chief investment strategist at Mainstay Capital Management. I joined now, So David, what now?

Being billed as like the market mover for the rest of the year, that it was more important than the Fed, it was more important than any jobs data or inflation. But now it's over. So now what David khod Love founder's CEO and chief investment strategist at Mainstay Capital Management. I joined now, So David, what now?

Like?

Like?

Now?

Now?

Are you focused on what now after?

Are you focused on what now after?

In na video that many have said might be more important to the markets than the Fed. But we do have PCE coming up at the end of the month PEC for October, and then we'll get CPI and another round of data here in early December. And I think, you know, for the FED, as far as the FED is concerned, they're kind of between a rock and a hard place. They have, you know, since September when we were looking at more than two hundred basis points and cuts by this time next year, we've had Unemployment has improved, it has gotten lower, Growth is stronger, Inflation has crept up a little bit. On the flip side of that, if we look at personal bankruptcies, we look at auto delinquencies, on auto loans, credit card debt, those are all at multi year decade highs. So there's cracks in the economy. There's things to be concerned about. But in terms of some of the other factors that the FED looks at, I think it's I think there's a lean towards not not cutting in December, and the markets won't like that. So, you know, I think we're in for some volatility. We've had a great twenty twenty two and twenty three, and I think we're in for some volatility in twenty I'm sorry, twenty three and twenty four, and in for some volatility in twenty five.

In na video that many have said might be more important to the markets than the Fed. But we do have PCE coming up at the end of the month PEC for October, and then we'll get CPI and another round of data here in early December. And I think, you know, for the FED, as far as the FED is concerned, they're kind of between a rock and a hard place. They have, you know, since September when we were looking at more than two hundred basis points and cuts by this time next year, we've had Unemployment has improved, it has gotten lower, Growth is stronger, Inflation has crept up a little bit. On the flip side of that, if we look at personal bankruptcies, we look at auto delinquencies, on auto loans, credit card debt, those are all at multi year decade highs. So there's cracks in the economy. There's things to be concerned about. But in terms of some of the other factors that the FED looks at, I think it's I think there's a lean towards not not cutting in December, and the markets won't like that. So, you know, I think we're in for some volatility. We've had a great twenty twenty two and twenty three, and I think we're in for some volatility in twenty I'm sorry, twenty three and twenty four, and in for some volatility in twenty five.

David, it was two weeks ago yesterday that we all woke up to a new president. We now know that we have a Republican controlled Senate and House. Did that change your outlook or the way you approach markets or maybe how you allocate assets here?

David, it was two weeks ago yesterday that we all woke up to a new president. We now know that we have a Republican controlled Senate and House. Did that change your outlook or the way you approach markets or maybe how you allocate assets here?

Yeah, you know, we always say and we educate our clients, and the thing that we try to make sure is that clients or in investors in general, there's a tendency to go to cash in an election year because they want to wait and see what happens in election and inevitably, election years turned out to be very good on average. This one the best election year since nineteen thirty six. But what we do want to do is look through to what we have for Congress and the executive branch and what that means as tactical asset allocators and the big wild card for next year is tariffs and what that mean in terms of a trade war. We know what that brought in in twenty sixteen in President Trump's first term.

Yeah, you know, we always say and we educate our clients, and the thing that we try to make sure is that clients or in investors in general, there's a tendency to go to cash in an election year because they want to wait and see what happens in election and inevitably, election years turned out to be very good on average. This one the best election year since nineteen thirty six. But what we do want to do is look through to what we have for Congress and the executive branch and what that means as tactical asset allocators and the big wild card for next year is tariffs and what that mean in terms of a trade war. We know what that brought in in twenty sixteen in President Trump's first term.

So there is some concern.

So there is some concern.

That with tariffs that's also going to be problematic for inflation. How much of what was campaign rhetoric versus how much of it will go into effect.

That with tariffs that's also going to be problematic for inflation. How much of what was campaign rhetoric versus how much of it will go into effect.

They seem pretty serious about it.

They seem pretty serious about it.

Howard Lutnak, who was named Commerce Secretary, he's almost self proclaimed tariffs are so I think there's going to be a run at it. What that results in terms of trade wars, the industry that effects versus others, that'll be very.

Howard Lutnak, who was named Commerce Secretary, he's almost self proclaimed tariffs are so I think there's going to be a run at it. What that results in terms of trade wars, the industry that effects versus others, that'll be very.

Important for market participants.

Important for market participants.

When you mentioned there was going to be more volatility, what assets do you think will have the most volatility? What do you're looking at, say, politics, as you mentioned, you also talked about potentially skipping a cut in December. Where do we see the most action?

When you mentioned there was going to be more volatility, what assets do you think will have the most volatility? What do you're looking at, say, politics, as you mentioned, you also talked about potentially skipping a cut in December. Where do we see the most action?

Well, we're seeing a lot of volatility in bonds we already have this year. Interestingly enough, is the Fed cut the first time they've now cut seventy five basis points.

Well, we're seeing a lot of volatility in bonds we already have this year. Interestingly enough, is the Fed cut the first time they've now cut seventy five basis points.

During that timeframe, both the.

During that timeframe, both the.

Ten year and thirty year have gone up about seventy five basis points, which is that counterintuitive reaction function. So we've seen really a lot of volatility in the bond market, but we'll see we think we'll see increased volatility in the stock market because even though the election is behind us, now that uncertainty is behind us, we have the uncertainty over tariffs and just how aggressive some of these moves will be. Even when we talk about eliminating or significantly reducing government agencies, what that would mean to unemployment. So there's just a lot of new factors to look at in terms of overall investment strategy that will be driving volatility into both bonds and stocks. We don't think about volatility a lot for bonds, but we've seen a great deal if we look at the move index, which is like the VICS for stocks, bonds have been quite volatile, they'll continue to be, and we think we'll see more volatility in the stock market.

Ten year and thirty year have gone up about seventy five basis points, which is that counterintuitive reaction function. So we've seen really a lot of volatility in the bond market, but we'll see we think we'll see increased volatility in the stock market because even though the election is behind us, now that uncertainty is behind us, we have the uncertainty over tariffs and just how aggressive some of these moves will be. Even when we talk about eliminating or significantly reducing government agencies, what that would mean to unemployment. So there's just a lot of new factors to look at in terms of overall investment strategy that will be driving volatility into both bonds and stocks. We don't think about volatility a lot for bonds, but we've seen a great deal if we look at the move index, which is like the VICS for stocks, bonds have been quite volatile, they'll continue to be, and we think we'll see more volatility in the stock market.

So we started off David by just chatting about in Nvidia. I thought the numbers were pretty solid, but of course the expectations were just massive.

So we started off David by just chatting about in Nvidia. I thought the numbers were pretty solid, but of course the expectations were just massive.

Here.

Here.

What did you learn, if anything, last night from Nvidia's results that maybe change or affirm.

What did you learn, if anything, last night from Nvidia's results that maybe change or affirm.

Your kind of your thoughts on technology.

Your kind of your thoughts on technology.

Well, first of all.

Well, first of all.

You know, Navidia is if you talk about a company that has a very wide mode around it because of Generative AI and their place in that, it's it's Navidia. They beat top line and bottom line should have been a good report, you know. But the problem is investors have become accustomed to these blowout numbers, just blowout numbers for Navidia that they've had in past quarters. So it's a little bit of a let down on the size of the beat.

You know, Navidia is if you talk about a company that has a very wide mode around it because of Generative AI and their place in that, it's it's Navidia. They beat top line and bottom line should have been a good report, you know. But the problem is investors have become accustomed to these blowout numbers, just blowout numbers for Navidia that they've had in past quarters. So it's a little bit of a let down on the size of the beat.

The stocks sold off.

The stocks sold off.

Uh and and UH after I was trading pre market was down and it's it's come back a little bit. But the bottom line is Navidia still has a long run way.

Uh and and UH after I was trading pre market was down and it's it's come back a little bit. But the bottom line is Navidia still has a long run way.

Ahead of it.

Ahead of it.

Uh.

Uh.

And the you know, their new gener A chip is is doing well, and I think that it still makes sense as part of a portfolio.

And the you know, their new gener A chip is is doing well, and I think that it still makes sense as part of a portfolio.

What about bitcoin? Are you on the bitcoin bold train here?

What about bitcoin? Are you on the bitcoin bold train here?

Yeah? The you know the interesting thing about bitcoin is, uh, those that have been bearish on bitcoin, fake internet money, it'll eventually go to zero pons scheme whatever.

Yeah? The you know the interesting thing about bitcoin is, uh, those that have been bearish on bitcoin, fake internet money, it'll eventually go to zero pons scheme whatever.

They've been humbled, right, they've been humbled.

They've been humbled, right, they've been humbled.

Bitcoin is as we've said, it's here to stay. It may be an asset class all and of itself, but just looking at what's happened here since the election, the talk of a strategic bitcoin reserve. You had a segment earlier on the show about it. You know, these are President Trump wants to call himself the bitcoin president.

Bitcoin is as we've said, it's here to stay. It may be an asset class all and of itself, but just looking at what's happened here since the election, the talk of a strategic bitcoin reserve. You had a segment earlier on the show about it. You know, these are President Trump wants to call himself the bitcoin president.

So we're seeing, we're seeing the.

So we're seeing, we're seeing the.

Asset or the asset class of justin bitcoin by itself, not the other coins, is rising on that speculation. And we look at it like gold, really if it's digital gold. Gold doesn't have a price to earnings ratio. It doesn't have a dividend yield. Bitcoin does neither. There is more gold that can be mined bitcoin. There's a fixed amount.

Asset or the asset class of justin bitcoin by itself, not the other coins, is rising on that speculation. And we look at it like gold, really if it's digital gold. Gold doesn't have a price to earnings ratio. It doesn't have a dividend yield. Bitcoin does neither. There is more gold that can be mined bitcoin. There's a fixed amount.

Right David, Thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time, David Coudlah. He's a founder, chief executive officer, and chief investment OFFSTA. I guess I make Simon the boss at Mainstay Capital Management.

Right David, Thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time, David Coudlah. He's a founder, chief executive officer, and chief investment OFFSTA. I guess I make Simon the boss at Mainstay Capital Management.

Appreciate that.

Appreciate that.

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you'll get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal

This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you'll get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal