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On this week’s podcast: Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, on the Fed's path to interest rate cuts this year after Fed Chair Jay Powell's panel in Europe. Ben Gliklich, CEO of Element Solutions on providing chemical technology that powers semiconductors. Andrew John Stevenson, BI Senior ESG Climate Analyst on the demise of the Chevron rule. And Dave Stephenson, Chief Business Officer at Airbnb, on how vacation rentals has been impacted by the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
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Big economic week this week, lots of economic data coming down to Pike, including Jobs Day on Friday week at the non farm payroll which is now looking for one hundred and ninety five thousand jobs. So the Fed's gonna have a lot to digest. Let's check in with Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence US interest rate strategists. So, Ira, where do you think the FED is as it sits here today digesting you know Jolts number, and they're going to get a lot more data coming this week. Where do you think the Fed is today?
Ira?
Yeah, the Fed I think is looking for the opportunity to cut interest rates. I think they've made it pretty clear that they're done hiking obviously. Japwell just this morning reiterated some words. He's at a symposium with two other central bank governors out in Europe, and he said, like, look that he doesn't want to cut too early. But he also doesn't want to cut too late because if they cut too early, then they risk inflation reaccelerating, and if they cut too late, that could mean that, you know, they go into a recession.
So I think they want to be cautious here.
I'm still of the opinion that we're not going to have enough data that the Fed's going to be able to cut before the election. And I think there's other reasons in the back of people's minds will never ever admit it, but that they want to kind of in order to remain independent. They want to stay out of the political arena. So you know, they know that things are slowing, but they're not slowing quickly enough for them. I think to cut in the very near term.
Yesterday, Morgan Stanley coming out with a note talking about steep inner trade into a potential President Trump. Basically, you're going to see higher inflation, slower growth, therefore go bet on steepeners. Think about that. These calls we're starting to see, well, I.
Think eventually the curve will be meaningfully steeper. I mean the curve is still inverted if depending on where you're looking. So if you look at the two year versus ten year You know that has moved twenty ish basis points from around negative fifty basis points to negative thirty. I was actually I'm working on a note right now looking at market technicals, at technical analysis, and we're getting pretty close to an interesting and interesting technical resistance point. I think that that steepeners makes sense and are But the problem is, I think you're going to get stopped out once or twice if you get in now you know we've already steepened a bit.
Ye, You're We're probably going to.
Pull back at least at some point, and so there might be better entry levels for those types of trades. The I think one of the big questions is will we see what we've if Donald Trump is elected, will we continue to see bear steepeners? Right so, where two year yields basically have done nothing, all of this move has come from the ten your yield moving higher, and that's on the expectation that we'll have higher deficits, that we might have higher inflation, that the FED might not be as active. But I think at some point we're actually going to get the opposite. We're going to get what we're going to get. Bull steepeners where you see two year yields go down to four and a quarter four percent from where they are today, whereas ten year yields might not move quite as much even if Donald Trump is elected, because what's I think underappreciated by the market right now. They're all focused, A lot of people focus on the fiscal aspect of what Donald Trump might do, but he's also very likely to appoint a more dubvish Chair of the Fed and not reappoint Chair Powell. So so I think once the market wakes up to that fact, I think you could wind up seeing some steepening, but the other way, right, so bull steepening as opposed to bear steepening.
I heard you just mentioned debt deficits, and we've heard that more and more of the last several weeks and months. But quite frankly, I've been hearing about the you know, the US debt concerns my entire life more I could really care.
Well, they care a little bit, right.
So, the way that I look at at Paul is as the debt burden grows and we're now at or above depending on how you count the deficit above, the debt is now bigger than GDP is. Sell offs will be more pronounced, and in rallies will be somewhat more limited, but we'll still rally. Right, So, if the inflation is lower, the economy is lowing, and the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, we will see treasury yields lower than they are you know, at the start of that environment.
Right.
So if we do have, in fact, a recession in twenty twenty five and inflation coming down and the FED cutting one hundred and fifty basis points, then interest rates are going to be lower, full stop.
I think the reason.
Why the debt burden isn't as big of a deal in countries like the US or indeed Japan, if you just look at Japan and you know how much debt that they have, their debt burden is way higher than ours in terms of the size of the economy is two things. One is that there's always a back up buyer, right, so the central banks can buy the debt if they really need to, if there's any kind of liquidity problems. There's other issues with that, right where you wind up having too much money in the system and too many reserves and that might cause inflation. But the other thing is is that all of our debt is in dollars, right, and we have dollars, so credit risk in countries like the US and like Japan, we don't have to worry about it. We don't have a lot of external debt. It denominates in other currencies, So we're not going to have a currency crisis or a credit crunch like you know, like Brazil had, or Argentina had, or Russia had back twenty years ago.
That's just not a possibility.
The risk is that we have to inflate our way out of it, and that's I think one of the issues that a lot of people are concerned about.
Well said in good distinction there for sure, All right, before we let you go, what's your call for Friday?
Well, I don't forecast non farm payrolls, but non farm payrolls is is I don't, that's WOGS groups mandate, But payrolls is by far the most important number to the treasury market. And keep in mind, like with with the holiday on Thursday and the weekend on Friday, it's very likely that trading desks are not going to be fully stabbed. So if we do get any kind of surprise, you could get either, you know, a really outsized move just because there's lack of risk takers kind of in the office and trading on.
It real quick. How disappointed should we be that the US men's team did not make it out of the round of Stace?
That's why I thought he was booked by the way.
I mean, I'm very disappointed quite frankly, But it was all about the game against Panama, not so much Orguay.
We I mean, one nil.
Against the Orguay is actually a pretty solid result against a good team. I mean, obviously you'd want it. We wanted to draw or win, and that would have obviously put us through if we had won. So it's the Panama game that we have to really, you know, assess what went wrong. I mean, we know a red card early on in the game was the reason. But we need to be disappointed here that we didn't make it out of group all right?
Fair enough? Literally and I read this, I thought of you, Ira, which means something in the eventually, I'll think about sports. I don't know, Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence GPUs Interest Rate Strategist.
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Mary, let's go to our c suite discussion today. Ben Glitklitch Joints and Ceiz, the CEO of Element Solutions. ESI is a ticker. So I put an ESI ticker into my Bloomberg terminal. I hit des, which is the most widely used function every day on the Bloomberg terminal for description says it's a specialty chemicals company. I don't think so, Ben. I think Bloomberg got it wrong here. You know, the especially a chemel's company. That's not really what you guys do, is it. What is it that you get to do a SI.
I'd hate to be in Bloomberg studio and say Bloomberg's got it wrong. We think about ourselves as a chemical technology company. So our company provides chemical solutions, process solutions that really enable outcomes for our customers and our supply chains. We're not selling a material, We're selling a process that enables the performance of high end electronics.
So what is okay? So we use your stuff in highland electronics or not even that simple.
So when you think about a typical chemical company, you're selling a material that has a chemical formula like commonium, like commonium or a titanium dioxide.
Sure right.
What we sell is a process that, for instance, turns a piece of plastic into a printed circuit board. So electronics rely on our material processes for their performance. When you think about evolution in computing power, higher end semiconductors require more complex solutions. It's not just the materials, it's the way they're used, the applications, and then the formulas. And that's what we do. We work with our customers to develop those solutions, not just in the lab, but how they're used in our customers manufacturing processes to deliver the performance that allows for breakthroughs like AI.
Well, my specialty chemicals analyst who I hired, he's in with some questions here today, But I guess the real question is you just reported some numbers, raised your outlook for twenty four what's driving your business today?
So there were two reasons that we raised our outlook. The first is margins, So we sell value. Our products are not cost plus, they're based on the value proposition to our customers, and so when our cost go up, we're able to pass that through, and when cost go down, as they have over the past nine months or so, we get to keep that and so profitabilities improved. But the real more exciting driver is traction in advanced electronics, and so all of these AI applications are lifting the electronics ecosystem and we have a lot more value in those applications, and so we're seeing pretty significant demand acceleration here, coming off of a very deep trough in the electronics market that we saw in twenty twenty three.
Who are your customers?
So we sell to the breadth of the electronics hardware supply chain. So we are selling the materials used to make printed circuit boards, as I said before, So that's printed circuit board fabricators. We are selling the materials that are used to make semiconductors, so that's semiconductor fabricators, and then we're selling materials that are used.
To put them together.
Think about assemblers. Increasingly, though, we have a seat at the table with OEMs and OSATs. So OSATs are the packagers and the test shops. Companies like Nvidia and amcorn AMD who were not actually making any of the hardware. They're designing it. And as they have more innovation requirements to get more computing power in smaller spaces, they're asking more from material suppliers, so they're sharing their technology roadmaps, which we then go into the lab and innovate to solve. So it's customized solutions for these supply chains. They're not direct customers, they're specifiers and they're driving business our way. So we're the only company in our industry with is breadth of capabilities.
So I'm looking at your company. ESI is the ticker, folks. It's got a market cap of six point five billion dollars. Stocks up sixteen percent year to date, up forty percent over the trailing twelve months. Pe multiple looking forward about the eighteen nineteen times I look at your business. Forty percent of your business is the industrial and specialty chemicals business. Thoughts of spin that out and just be a focus on pure play on the electronics side.
So what we do in that business is very similar to what we do in electronics, just with different customers. So our customers in this case automotive companies come to us to help solve problems around plating on plastic. So the hood ornament on your car looks like metal. It's a piece of plastic with a thin coating of chrome or nickel. That's our process. Now they might want that nickel to be matt they might want that nickel to be shiny, they might want that nickel to remove certain materials. We work in our labs to solve those problems for our customers as well. So this is a great business with great customer intimacy, interesting growth drivers, and generates a lot of cash. They fit, they fit.
This might be a really silly question, who are your competitors?
So we compete with different companies in different.
Pockets of our business.
So I said before that we're the only company in our market with his breadth of solutions, and that's a very important point of differentiation. Some companies are able to provide similar solutions to make a printed circuit board, others can provide similar solutions to put chips onto boards, but no one can speak to the breadth of what we do. And increasingly, the way these materials interact is important to performance, and so that gives us a real leg up against our competitors in our circuit board business. We compete with a company called at Tech that's part of MKS Instruments. We compete with DuPont in certain areas. We compete with really strong technical companies in Japan, but no one competes with the breadth of what we do, and that is giving us a real advantage in today's market.
A lot of folks feel like AI has been hyped, that the demand is so much new incremental demand for spending, it's just maybe taken from other buckets it or something. How do you think about the ultimate demand for AI going forward and what does it mean for your business?
Yeah, so AI is a huge demand driver for the long term in the electronics market, and that may have fits and starts, but the history of electronics hardware is there's always a next thing. We went from desktops to laptops to mobile phones to smartphones, and when you do those transitions, you don't stop using the legacy tech. It's all additive. What AI is is is electronics hardware moving from being a support tool to being a decision maker. And the addressable market for that is gigantic because eventually we're going to replace things like forklift operators with boxes and smartphones, which were the last big thing. We're sort of capacitated by the human population. People don't need two phones. Industrial automation doesn't have that. That's ceiling and we're still going to have our smartphones and they're going to be AI enabled, but then we're going to have industrial automation. It's all additive and so AI over the long term. I don't believe it's being hyped in the short term perhaps, but when you look at the price point for some of these GPUs, clearly there's a huge amount of demand that's outs driven supply that This is.
My favorite question, do you know yet how cyclical the AI business part is going to be?
So in the semiconductor market, there are two drivers of cyclicality. There's price and volume. Right, our business is driven by volume. It doesn't matter the price point of the semiconductor, just the number of chips that are being made. And price is the more volatile of those two variables. Because the new fab opens, a bunch of new supply comes online, the prices comes down, so there is cyclicality. There's less cyclicality in our business. There's cyclicality in electronics broadly defined, but it's cyclicality around an upward trend, right, So there's going to be air pockets and demand. We've seen it in the mobile phone market for example. Last year was a very difficult year, but it's coming back and the peak is in front of us, not behind us. For electronics, and so certainly there'll be cyclicality. I would say more in price than volume. AI and its applications are going to be a big volume driver for many years from here. Again, look at the price points of these chips. But it's cyclicality around a very positive trend. God about forty five seconds left. M and A to what extent is that a part of your growth strategy. We're very excited to deploy the strong cash flows this business generates. We have modest capital requirements, so we convert EBITDA our earnings into cash very efficiently. We're very idded to toplay those cash flows behind the business to add capabilities to support our customers and drive growth. There is an opportunity for incremental M and A within our businesses very attractive returns and to support what will be pretty compelling organic growth in the near term.
All right, Ben, we appreciate it. Thank you very much. Ben, Ben Clickich, CEO of Element Solutions, working to be an ai so electronics provider solution company, nailed it. Yeah, okay, I'm going to work on that. I'm going to definitely work on that one.
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Okay, let's get to the big news of the Supreme Court over the last few days. It wasn't just the Trump Community trial. It was also the Supreme Court changing the Chevron Doctor and the Chevron deference, which basically means that state that federal agencies don't necessarily interpret laws that goes to the courts now and that could have a big ramification for lots of different agencies, and in particular when it comes to ESG in climate. So Andrew John Stevenson, BI Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ESG Climate analyst joins us now from DC walk us through how maybe the Chevron deference has helped the EPA or has led the EPA to make certain decisions that now may be in doubt.
Sure.
So we had the If you think about the Clean Air Act, that's the biggest thing the ep has ever done. It started in nineteen seventy with one document that said, basically, go to it. We need to reduce the amount of air pollution in the air. We need a lot of different levers to pull to make that happen. We're kind of deferring to experts to do that. Go at it. And they did it for about twenty years. And then they had another revision the Clean Air Act too, and that's the one that we're enjoying today with when they basically said, you did a decent job, let's keep going, let's keep driving down the air pollution. And you know, here we are today with the cleanest air we've seen in you know, since the early nineteen hundreds basically, So.
It's been very, very successful.
Yeah I'm not that old, but I remember first going the Los Angeles earlier in my career and you could see the smog. Literally it was brown, it was orange, kind of funky. Now, you rarely have ever have any problems out there, So I kind of have been a fan of the EPA all right. Given to Chevron ruling what does it mean for climate in your part of the world. What's the mean for the energy industry?
Sure?
So, I mean it's troubling on a couple fronts. The first is with respect to the oil and gas industry. They have the big oil companies have done it basically a fantastic job of driving down a big chunk of their pollution from methane. So methane is really the thing that you really want to address when it comes to the oil and gas industry, which is just sort of leaking natural gas into the atmosphere. And the bigger companies have done a fantastic job, but the smaller companies, basically are the private companies haven't moved on it. And so the leadership we've seen from Exon Mobile and others has been really, you know, got transformative in terms of what's happening for the bigger companies. But unless the EPA does work to kind of push along the rest, and we're talking about still half of the production comes from small companies that are private, we're not going to get anywhere near where we need to go on from an emission standpoint from the oil and gas industry. So that's sort of one the second is really with respect to the power sector. So the power sector, we need more power. We've basically gone from having a coma power growth over the last decade and now because of AI and EVS, we have power demand somewhere around two and a half percent a year and that has to be filled with something. And it looks like gas is going to be a candidate in the next several years because there's just so much demand that needs to come online. And there was a ruling at least from the APA that the gas companies that they were going to build a new power plant would have to capture that gas, and that doesn't look like it's going to happen. So because of the ruling, so we have growth, which is obviously challenging from an environmental perspective, but it's really going to affect our overall emission standpoint as a country going forward.
I mean, the power coma that was actually a great I'm going to steal that. I hope that's okay. So you were ESG climate analyst, So that's environmental, social and governance. Does the social and governance part of your job get affected by the Supreme Court decision?
Well?
So, people, some of the people think of the environmental it does conclude chemicals and things like that. Obviously that's going to be a bigger problem the social If you think about health, that's really what's going to happen with respect to this ruling.
So we are going to have poor health.
I mean, the ability for judges to make decisions that are very complicated. I mean you're talking about I mean I just mentioned the Clean Air Act. That's a fifty year project with thousands of people working on it to have an opinion on how to get from A to B. And we are now expected to have judges have an opinion that is just wildly professional in a number of areas, and that includes things like PF the kind of forever chemicals. So that's going to affect health and food safety. So there's a lot of things on that side that are going to be affected as well.
So do we have any experience on kind of how this works outside of the regulatory agencies?
Are the judges?
Are they making reasonable rulings when applicable?
So yeah, I mean the pushback was that these are the judges and the agencies, there's no interaction, and there's quite a bit that goes on and I think the agency will only win about seventy percent of the time. So the judges actually have had input into this, but you're really relying and it can swing both ways. Which is the really kind of conterintuitive part is that you could have a judge that the sides it needs to be more or stringent, right, so it can go in different directions. And I mean it's ultimately been deferred to the Chevron defense and they say, okay, we'll let the agencies deal with it. And now we have that kind of open air, open terrain. So it's very difficult to see how things move as smoothly and in such an organized fashion as we've had previously.
Yeah, because the other side will say, we'll judges do this all the time, like they're ruling on different cases that they don't have an expertise about all the time. What's the difference for the companies that you cover? Which companies will be the most impacted?
So the companies that are really if you think about what's going on with the growth of you let's just talk about power for a second. The companies that are really taking up a challenge with respect to you know, power demand going up and dealing with it. Really on a kind of the clean energy front, there's two benefits. You get paid for capex right when you're a utility company. So the more of that capex that goes into renewables and grid and things like that, you get basically one hundred percent of that money is you can you know, earn a return on it, whereas if you build a gas plant you only get about half that because half of the cost of the plant is in fuel and you don't get paid for that as a utility. So the companies like Constellation Energy are still expected to do very well next Era Energy because of the IRA are getting very strong incentives to continue to produce as much clean energy as they can, and they're going to if you look at their stock prices, they've reflected that in the last little bit. But from the other side of the equation, which is the oil and gas industry, the leaders are already the leaders, you know, and they've performed exceptionally well. If you look at the group that is the lowest methane producers have done very very well against the other guys.
All Right, we got to leave it there. Really appreciated Andrew John Stevenson, BI Senior ESG Climate analyst joining us.
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We've got the Olympics coming up this summer in Paris.
How cool was that going to be?
But good luck trying to get a hotel room there or trying to get accommodations anywhere. You know, who would know about this stuff? Airbnb Dave Stevenson joins us. He's the chief business officer for Airbnb. Dave talked to us about your business in Paris for this summer. What are you guys seeing?
Yeah, Hi, Paul Alex, thanks for having me super excited about the Olympics this summer. And you're seeing hundreds of thousands of people from around the world come to Paris to stay in airbnbs. They are super excited. It's going to be an amazing event.
Are there any places to stay?
Like?
How much you guys making off of people going to Paris?
You know, one of the great things about having Airbnbs in Paris is that the actual the volume of airbnbs have gone up pretty dramatically. We have forty percent more active listings than we had a year ago. And by having those extra listings, we're actually able to keep prices reasonable because we're able to add so much capacity to the stays there. So there are still places available. You know, we're only twenty four days out, but you know, you keep booking. There are airbnbs ready for guests to come from around the world.
Yeah, because you know why everyone's leaving Paris. Yeah, all the reasons to like, get me out of here, and they're going to this out of France anyway. Sorry, go ahead, So David, well, it's not bad.
They're actually able to earn you know, two thousand euros on average for a host in Paris, and so yeah, many people do leave and share their homes and welcome people from other countries to come to the vilops.
Talk to us about where where you're seeing travelers come from to Paris.
Yeah, it's interesting.
Some of our top countries are the US, UK and actually people from other areas of France coming into Paris for the Olympics. We're also seeing some interesting trends where people are staying. You know, the Olympics are actually not only in Paris, They're kind of spread around the country, and so you know, we're seeing people staying in airbnbs in Leo where some of the basketball is being played. You We're seeing them in Leone where some of the football, you know, soccer matches are being played. You're seeing Spaniards and Brazilians stan Bordeaux because their national teams will be playing soccer out there. So we're not just seeing people come in Paris, They're staying in airbnbs all around the country.
That's interesting. I did not know that you also transition recently from CFO to CBO. Is that so chief financial officer to chief business officer? How is that?
Like?
What how does your job change with that title?
Yeah?
No, I'm the chief business Officer. I'm also the head of Employee Experience, so the head of HR, which have been doing now for three years. But the chief business Officer, you know, I'm focused on growth of the company and expanding into new and new business areas. So we're expanding beyond the kind of core stays business here at Airbnb into things like services and experiences over time. And so me and my team, that's what we're focused on, growing the existing business and expanding into new ones.
So for just the busines, this is in general, how is travel this business? As we crank up here in the US for fourth of July, and then of course in Europe they have their big travel during the summer, particularly August. Give us a sense of kind of where you're seeing the business these days.
Yeah, you know, we're seeing more people travel this summer than they ever have before on Airbnb. Continue to see great growth, yes, strong growth, especially from your Americans travel to Europe. You know, we continue to have a strong dollar, which enables strength there, and we're actually seeing you know, nice strength and people even traveling from US into Asia.
US into Asia, okay, which is not rippin' dollar. Yeah, you just even go anywhere pretty much. It's what about the opposite, is anyone coming to the US. We're making any money on Airbnb here in the US anymore?
Absolutely.
I mean that people are still traveling from overseas in the US. You know, actually the majority of our travel still is actually domestic travel in any given country. So we're kind of talking a lot about people moving around the world, but a lot of the travel is just people going. You know, in the US, it's a lot of beach destination. You're seeing great traveled down to Florida, up onto the East Coast, you know, onto the Jersey Shore and other places. So you know, people are still tommling out to the beaches to visit with family and enjoy the fourth of July.
Dave, what's a typical or prototypical Airbnb customer look like?
You know, there we have customers of all kinds. You know, it's everything from young gen Z, millennials to families. You know, a large number of our people in travel in Airbnb, our group travel multiple people travel together because you get more space, you might get multiple bedrooms, you have multiple amenities, often with a kitchen, you know, maybe.
A washer and dryer.
It's one of the things reasons why we've recently launched some of these group travel features to enable more people to stay together more easily. We have things like shared wishfless, shared messaging capability, and that's helping in Paris where over fifty percent of the people traveling to the Paris Olympics have three or more people, and so group travel is a key benefit of staying on Airbnb.
That's a good point. What are there trends that you're you think you're going to be dealing with in twenty twenty five, kind of after we get through the Olympics, you know, I.
Think we're going to continue to see strength and travel. I think one of the things we've seen since the pandemic is that people realize how much they miss being able to kind of travel, be with family and friends, that experiences are maybe more important than things. I think that trend will continue, and we're going to see people wanting to spend time with family and friends doing things together.
So I think that's the big.
Trend that we'll see in twenty twenty five, continued experiences.
All right, thank you so very much. We appreciate it. Dave Stevenson and Chief business officer over at Airbnb.
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