2024 has been a fascinating year for democracy with more than 60 countries holding elections. 

It's been the biggest election year in global history, with around half the world's population having the opportunity to vote in local, regional, legislative, or presidential elections. 

Democracy was tested as countries dealt with voter apathy, attempts to suppress opposition groups, and the impact of sophisticated disinformation campaigns. 

Let's just say, not all the elections were equal, but the results were equally important, locally and globally. The results impact the world's complicated web of geopolitical linkages and issues and tensions. So, what have we learned from these elections in a year of political disruption? 

Pew Research Center identified four trends. A tough year for incumbents, the staying power of right-wing populism, polarised battles over tradition and change, and international conflicts with political implications.

It certainly was a tough year for incumbents. 

The Democrats, of course, in the US lost the presidency, Congress and the Senate. In the United Kingdom, 14 years of Conservative Party rule came to an end - which is nothing compared to the upheaval in Botswana, where the Democratic Party lost power for the first time in 60 years. 

There was a change of government in South Korea in April as a means to keep the president in check, and we've seen how that's played out. 

Roughly 85% of incumbents lost power this year. Those left in power suffered setbacks, such as in India, Japan, South Africa, and France... and we're seeing how that's played out. 

One of the main underlying issues was economic challenges, such as rising costs, low production, and the general state of economies. Post-pandemic voters have less patience. If they don't like the direction their country is going in, they're not holding back.They're whipping up a storm on social media and voting for change, often for change's sake. 

It's something that should be front of mind for our leaders of the coalition government as they head into 2025. 

As the year has drawn to a close, update on the economies have been gloomy. Low productivity, a drop in GDP, a deep recession that's as bad as the 2020 COVID-related slump, a forecast surplus that has been pushed out, job losses and families struggling to get ahead. 

The government keeps reminding us how dire things were before they arrived. 

Admittedly, there is a bit of luck in the timing of when your government takes over, but equally, if things are already going great, you're less likely to have won the election. 

It was never going to be easy to right the books and we're far from the only country struggling, but strong promises were made. And if they can't be achieved in three years, voters will judge them for it. 

The government has a lot of work to do in 2025 to show voters it is turning the direction of the country around. Otherwise, the incumbent curse may continue.

LISTEN ABOVE

<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">2024 has been a fascinating year for democracy with more than 60 countries holding elections. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">It's been the biggest election year in global history, with around half the world's population having the opportunity to vote in local, regional, legislative, or presidential elections. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">Democracy was tested as countries dealt with voter apathy, attempts to suppress opposition groups, and the impact of sophisticated disinformation campaigns. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">Let's just say, not all the elections were equal, but the results were equally important, locally and globally. The results impact the world's complicated web of geopolitical linkages and issues and tensions. So, what have we learned from these elections in a year of political disruption? 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; background-position: 0px 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; background-image: var(--urlContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2,); border-bottom: 1px solid transparent;">Pew Research Center identified four trends. A tough year for incumbents, the staying power of right-wing populism, polarised battles over tradition and change, and international conflicts with political implications.
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">It certainly was a tough year for incumbents. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">The Democrats, of course, in the US lost the presidency, Congress and the Senate. In the United Kingdom, 14 years of Conservative Party rule came to an end - which is nothing compared to the upheaval in Botswana, where the Democratic Party lost power for the first time in 60 years. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">There was a change of government in South Korea in April as a means to keep the president in check, and we've seen how that's played out. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">Roughly 85% of incumbents lost power this year. Those left in power suffered setbacks, such as in India, Japan, South Africa, and France... and we're seeing how that's played out. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">One of the main underlying issues was economic challenges, such as rising costs, low production, and the general state of economies. Post-pandemic voters have less patience. If they don't like the direction their country is going in, they're not holding back.They're whipping up a storm on social media and voting for change, often for change's sake. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">It's something that should be front of mind for our leaders of the coalition government as they head into 2025. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">As the year has drawn to a close, update on the economies have been gloomy. Low productivity, a drop in GDP, a deep recession that's as bad as the 2020 COVID-related slump, a forecast surplus that has been pushed out, job losses and families struggling to get ahead. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">The government keeps reminding us how dire things were before they arrived. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">Admittedly, there is a bit of luck in the timing of when your government takes over, but equally, if things are already going great, you're less likely to have won the election. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">It was never going to be easy to right the books and we're far from the only country struggling, but strong promises were made. And if they can't be achieved in three years, voters will judge them for it. 
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">The government has a lot of work to do in 2025 to show voters it is turning the direction of the country around. Otherwise, the incumbent curse may continue.
<p style="-webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px 0px 10.6667px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap; vertical-align: baseline; font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent; color: windowtext; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;">LISTEN ABOVE

News, opinion, analysis, lifestyle and entertainment – we’ve got your Sunday morning listening covered with The Sunday Session with Francesca Rudkin on Newstalk ZB.

The Sunday Session with Francesca Rudkin

Francesca Rudkin: A fascinating year for democracy

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f29bc1eb-680f-4b8d-afc3-b24d01688ad4/transcript

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